Jack's Free Pick Monday: Miami Heat +8.5

There's clear value on the Miami Heat in Game 4 when you compare this to the Game 3 line.  The Heat closed as 5-point home underdogs in Game 3 and now are 8.5-point home underdogs in Game 4.  That assumes the Heat are just going to fold, which I don't expect to be the case.

We saw the Thunder take a lot of money and close 15.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies in Game 4 when they were going for the sweep.  They were life and death in that game despite the Grizzlies not having JA Morant.  They eventually won by 2.  Considering what the Heat have been through this season and in the playoffs, I don't expect them to just quit.

The Heat actually ranked #1 in the NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season.  Eric Spoelstra has shown once again why is is one of the best coaches in the NBA getting the most out of another Miami Heat team.

The Heat went on the road in two must-win games and beat the Bulls by 19 and the Hawks by 9 to become the first No. 10 seed ever to quality for the playoffs.  They ran out of gas late in Game 1 against Cleveland, but it was still an 8-point game entering the 4th quarter before the Cavs pulled away.

The Heat came back refreshed in Game 2 and gave the Cavs all they could handle in a 121-112 loss as 12-point underdogs.  Nothing went right in Game 3 as the Cavaliers shot 53% compared to just 42% for Miami and only 7 made free throws for the Heat.  That 124-87 blowout has inflated this line for Game 4, and I expect some positive shooting regression in Miami's favor tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

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15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 9

Patrick Corbin has finished with a 5.20 ERA or higher while making at least 31 starts in each of his last four seasons with the Nationals.  He is legitimately one of the worst starters in baseball.  The Rangers took a chance on him last season and it's only a matter of time before he completely blows up again.  He's fortunate to have a 3.77 ERA considering he has a 1.54 WHIP in his three starts thus far for the Rangers.

JP Sears is 25-32 with a 4.29 ERA in 80 starts and six relief appearances in his career for the A's.  I like the fact that Sears just faced the Rangers on April 23rd in his last start, while Corbin just faced the A's on April 22nd in his last start.  The advantage always goes to the hitters getting to face these starting pitchers for a 2nd time in a week.  Corbin allowed 9 base runners and 2 homers in 5 innings in an 8-5 win over the A's on April 22nd.  Sears allowed 2 earned runs and a homer in 5 innings in his start against the Rangers.  Both should get shelled tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Yankees/Orioles AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left field in Baltimore tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game.  The Orioles have been in a funk thus far offensively, but they can't be held down for long with all their talent.  More concerning is the Orioles ranking 28th in baseball allowing 5.4 runs per game.

Will Warren is 1-0 with a 4.79 ERA in five starts this season allowing 11 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings for the Yankees.  The Yankees have a taxed bullpen after playing a double-header with the Blue Jays on Sunday, and Warren's inability to go deep into games will be a problem for them today. He is averaging just over 4 innings per start.

Tomoyuki Sugano has been a bit of a disappointment for the Orioles this season allowing 6 homers in 28 innings with only 9 K's.  Pitching to contact does not work in MLB these days, and Sugano also fails to go deep into games averaging 5.1 innings per start.  The Orioles also played a double-header on Saturday and their bullpen is taxed.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in four of their last five games coming in with the OVER going 4-1 in those five games with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.  The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 18-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking 29th in baseball allowing 5.6 runs per game.  The OVER is 12-3 in Marlins last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 15 games.

Edward Cabrera went 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Marlins last season.  He is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in three starts for the Marlins this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 2/3 innings.  Cabrera hates facing the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 15.30 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing 17 earned runs in 10 innings.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

Dustin May was due some regression after a very soft schedule to start the season.  Regression hit him hard in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 5 innings to the Cubs.  I don't expect him to fully shut down the Marlins tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with almost no wind as the ball should be flying out at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.  These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs.  The Reds rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game.  The Cardinals rank 10th scoring 4.6 runs per game.

The Reds are scoring 7.7 runs per game in their last 10 games.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games.  They should stay hot against Andre Pallante, who has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Pallante allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.

The Cardinals should feast on Nick Martinez, who is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season while allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his two home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +4

The Houston Rockets shot 39.1% from the field and 11-of-20 (5%) from the FT line in their Game 1 loss.  They bounced back to shoot 45.3% from the field and 16-of-20 (80%) from the FT line in Game 2 in a 109-94 blowout win.

The Rockets shot 39.5% from the field and 14-of-24 (58.3%) from the FT line in Game 3.  I expect them to have some positive shooting regression in Game 4 and bounce back from their Game 3 loss just as they did in Game 2 bouncing back from their Game 1 loss largely due to poor shooting.

The Warriors simply rely too much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring.  Curry had a monster game with 36 points in Game 3 to put the Warriors on his back.  But he won't be as good in Game 4 as I expect the Rockets to make the proper adjustments to double-team him and make others beat them.  And even if Jimmy Butler plays he will be nowhere near 100%.

Jalen Green stepped up in Game 2 and scored 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting.  He was too passive in Game 3 going just 4-of-11 shooting for 9 points.  Look for him to be much more aggressive in Game 4 as he is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  And the Rockets are just the deeper team in general and elite defensively.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Monday.