Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers jumped over the Mariners and Astros in the standings last night after their 8-5 win over the Mariners, and I think they gain some more ground tonight. Texas has been extremely productive against right-handed pitching this season (.792 OPS) and will go up against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Through 30 starts, Gilbert owns a respectable 3.77 ERA, but has slightly regressed in September, pitching to a 4.50 ERA across 4 starts. The Rangers’ offense can get hot quick, and they’ve plated 29 runs in their past 3 games. Look for them to stay aggressive. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery counters for the Rangers and is pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 30 starts. Most importantly, Montgomery has been extremely efficient over his past 2 outings, allowing just 1 earned run across 14.0 innings. I give the edge to Montgomery and a potent Rangers’ lineup to grab the win and widen their lead in the standings.

Rating: 2 Units

Woodruff has been outstanding this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. The only problem has been that a shoulder injury kept him for four months, limiting him to just 10 starts so far. Over his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA. In three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers (88-66), who routed the Marlins 16-1 in the series opener on Friday, are closing in on their third NL Central title in the past six years. Their magic number for the division is one, and they clinched a playoff berth on Friday. he Marlins hope to change their fortunes today behind left-hander Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA). Luzardo, a native of Peru who will turn 26 next week, has set career highs in wins, starts (30) and innings (166 1/3). Prior to this season, his career highs in those categories were six victories, 18 starts and 100 1/3 innings. The Marlins are 18-12 this season when Luzardo starts, although he took a pounding on Sept. 11 when facing Woodruff and the Brewers. In that game, Luzardo allowed 10 hits, four walks and six runs in five innings.

Rating: 2 Units

MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break.  Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. 

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge.  The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally,  if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG)

Rating: 3 Units

OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss.