15* MLB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog last night.  I took them in that game, and I'm back on them again today.

J.P. France has no business being this big of a favorite.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.  

Jordan Lyles has been respectable against Houston, going 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in seven career starts against the Astros.  He'll keep them in this game while their bats stay hot against France.  The value is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

J.P. France is getting too much respect from the books with this low 9-run total.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.

The Astros have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They will get to Jordan Lyles, who is 2-9 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against Houston this season.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  Lyles is 11-2 OVER in his last 13 starts vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game in the second half of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/A's OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-3 in Tigers last nine games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in five of those nine games and 4 or more in six of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in A's last four games overall and we've seen 9 or more combined runs in all four games.

Gas can Joey Wentz goes for the Tigers today.  He is 1-10 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in 18  starts this season.  He'll be opposed by an opener for the A's followed by their god awful bullpen.  The A's have a 5.24 ERA and 1.505 WHIP as a bullpen this season.

Temps will be approaching 70 in Oakland today with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-107)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and a total of 33 runs in those four games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against gas can Chris Flexen and the awful Colorado Rockies.

Marcus Stroman is 10-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 23 starts for the Cubs this season, including 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Stroman is 4-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in six career starts against Colorado.

Flexen is 1-8 with a 7.70 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.99 ERA and 2.187 WHIP in five road starts.  Flexen is 0-1 with a 12.92 ERA and 3.003 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs, both of which have come in 2023.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 23 base runners in 7 2/3 innings in those two starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-41 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-14 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Ohio/Bowling Green UNDER 45

The Ohio Bobcats are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They are 4-0 to the UNDER with combined scores of 33, 37, 27 and 17 points thus far.  They have an elite defense that is allowing just 11.8 points per game, 244 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Now they take on a very weak Bowling Green offense that doesn't know who they will be starting at quarterback yet this week.  

The Falcons managed just 6 points and 205 total yards in their 31-6 loss to Michigan last week.  Starter Connor Bazelak sat out the Michigan game with a leg injury, backup Camden Orth had to leave with an injury in the 2nd quarter, and walk-on Hayden Timosciek was forced into duty.  He was awful to say the least with a pair of interceptions and only 33 yards on his 10 pass attempts.  

But I have been impressed with this Bowling Green defense this season as they limited Michigan to just 312 total yards and held a high-powered Liberty attack to 391 total yards.  That's a Liberty team that is running it up on everyone else.  Liberty had 526 total yards against New Mexico State and 55 points and 569 total yards against Buffalo.

This Ohio offense has been very disappointing this season with big hype due to having what was expected to be the best QB in the MAC in Kurtis Rourke.  But he clearly isn't 100% healthy in the early going and it has shown.  Rourke has led the Bobcats to just 16.8 points per game, 328 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through four games.  They actually had their best offensive numbers in the game he got injured early and had to leave in the opener against San Diego State.

Ohio is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine conference road games.  Bowling Green is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games after scoring 14 points or fewer.  The Bobcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games vs. bad teams that win 25% to 40% of their games.  These are also two of the slowest teams on offense with Bowling Green ranking 126th out of 133 teams in seconds per play and Ohio ranking 92nd.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.