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Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan vs Winnipeg | Winnipeg -2½ -110 | Top Premium | 21-26 | Win | 100 | Show |
Diamondbacks vs Astros | Diamondbacks +145 | Top Premium | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | Show |
Reds vs Mets | Reds +140 | Top Premium | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | Show |
Texas vs Michigan | Michigan +7½ -115 | Free | 31-12 | Loss | -115 | Show |
Tennessee vs NC State | Tennessee -7½ -109 | Top Premium | 51-10 | Win | 100 | Show |
East Carolina vs Old Dominion | East Carolina -2½ -109 | Top Premium | 20-14 | Win | 100 | Show |
Marshall vs Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech -20 -109 | Top Premium | 14-31 | Loss | -109 | Show |
UTSA vs Texas State | Texas State PK -110 | Top Premium | 10-49 | Win | 100 | Show |
Michigan State vs Maryland | Maryland -8½ -109 | Top Premium | 27-24 | Loss | -109 | Show |
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame | Northern Illinois +28½ -110 | Top Premium | 16-14 | Win | 100 | Show |
South Carolina vs Kentucky | Kentucky -10 -108 | Top Premium | 31-6 | Loss | -108 | Show |
California vs Auburn | California +13½ -115 | Top Premium | 21-14 | Win | 100 | Show |
Akron vs Rutgers | Rutgers -23 -110 | Top Premium | 17-49 | Win | 100 | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati | Cincinnati -1 -108 | Top Premium | 28-27 | Loss | -108 | Show |
Georgia Tech vs Syracuse | Syracuse +3 -104 | Top Premium | 28-31 | Win | 100 | Show |
This is play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. We played on Arizona as well on Saturday and while the bats were more effective following getting shut out on Friday, the bullpen was done in by a horrible effort from Dylan Floro. The 11-5 loss made it three straight defeats and the Diamondbacks remain a game and a half behind the Padres for the top spot in the National League Wild Card. While the six-run loss yesterday seems extreme, Arizona was outhit only 13-10 and it still leads the National League in OPS and since the All Star Break, it leads all of baseball with an .834 OPS, .207 ISO and .358 wOBA. Houston has now won two straight games following a three-game losing streak which came after a five-game winning streak so it has been an up and down stretch and their lead in the American League West now sits at 5.5 games with 20 games to play. The pitching shut down the Royals in four straight games and then shut out the Diamondbacks in a five-game home stretch but they did get tagged on Saturday and will be vulnerable once again in the favorite role with a public arm throwing. We played against Justin Verlander in his last start and will do so again while the play against value is still there and despite posting a 6.93 ERA over his last five starts, the public money is on him again. He has been limited to 13 starts this season and is finally showing his age and regression. When he won the Cy Young in 2022, his fastball velocity and K% were 95 and 27.8% and now they are down to 93.2 and 20.5%. In 2022 his xFIP of 3.23 was top 10 among qualified starters and this season, it is 5.03 which currently is No. 131 out of 137 starters that have tossed at least 70 innings. This is a lineup that can tag him again. Ryne Nelson is going through his best five-game stretch of the season as he has posted a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts, allowing two runs or less in all five outings. He now has a 4.15 ERA which is not great but his underlying numbers are above average and he is pitched well above his numbers from last season. He has pitched one inning less than his 144 innings from last season and his K% is considerably up while his BB% is considerably down. 10* (923) Arizona Diamondbacks
This is play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. The Mets have won nine straight games following a 4-0 victory on Saturday highlighted by a solid start from Luis Severino and the bullpen came up big again but they will be without Edwin Diaz who has pitched the last two games. The pitching has been outstanding over this winning stretched as New York has allowed only 1.8 rpg over this stretch. They have been able to gain ground on the Braves in the National League Wild Card as they have taken a one game lead which is also now factoring into the number. The Reds have lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and they have fallen four games under .500 which is far from horrible and after closing as a +131 underdog on Saturday, they are as high as +180 in some spot today in basically the same pitching matchup. The Mets last defeat came with Luis Severino on the hill and while he did not get the loss, he pitched like he should have. Three of his last four starts have been solid but he had a run of 10 starts prior to that which was horrible as he posted a 5.66 ERA in those 10 outings and got back to that regression two starts back against Arizona where he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings. Overall, his ERA is at 3.84 which is certainly serviceable but among 56 qualified starters, he is No. 50 in K-BB% at 12.2% while his 4.23 xFIP is No. 46. Julian Aguiar is certainly not a step above Severino but he is right in line in more limited action but he should not be this much of an underdog as it is based on playing a public team as the Mets on a huge winning streak. He pitched well in his first two Major League starts with a 3.60 ERA but he was lit up against Oakland two starts back which they have been doing to a lot of pitchers the last two months and while he went just 2.2 innings in his last start, he was pitching on only three days of rest because of an injury ravaged rotation and now he is on six days off. His slider has been particularly effective which he has used to limit hard contact and this has been evident in his rise throughout the Minors where he posted a 1.16 WHIP over 77 career games. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds
This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The Commanders finished last in the NFC East as they went 3-14 overall including going a winless 0-6 in the division and while they are not coming into the season as a very hyped team, they figure to be improved. Quarterback Sam Howell started every game for Washington but he is gone after leading the NFL with 23 turnovers and the Commanders had the worst turnover margin in the league which puts them in a positive progression situation going into this season as that usually reverses out and we will take advantage of that in Game One because the lines are still focused mainly on last season. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. To help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Commanders fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (473) Washington Commanders
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Division Game of the Month. This is a spot where we are going against a team that comes into the season as arguably the biggest overhyped team with Super Bowl futures pouring in. There have been only eight teams in the NFL that were 150-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl and then go to 20-1 or less the following season and Houston is one of those heading into this season. Of the previous seven, five have finished with a losing record so we will be fading the Texans here as they are getting the love of their worst to first AFC South turnaround. The fact the Texans had 11 wins last season which was the same amount as their previous three seasons combined shows there should be negative regression and we have the ideal spot in playing against them as they enter the season as a division road favorite with the number continuing to climb. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year but eight of his 10 regular season wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs and while one of those was Indianapolis, the Colts are a different team than what they were in January. Houston also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA but there was a lot of turnover on this side. Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014 while divisional home underdogs are 25-13 ATS going back further. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. There is no hype in New Orleans despite coming off a winning season as it is in a rare situation of coming off a decent finish but odds have gone the other direction despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The Saints are in one of the weakest divisions in the league and it is wide open yet they have gone from +115 last season to +400 this season while their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less than 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Quarterback Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the worst coach in the division now faces off against who we think is the best coach in the division. Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. Head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and while he was not the issue, we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The Panthers upgraded their defense as well. The casual fan or bettor will look at those two wins from last season but Carolina has potential for a big turnaround. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Panthers fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Also, Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014. 10* (461) Carolina Panthers
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Giants had an offseason that many felt was left to be desired as they did not do a ton of upgrading and will have to go on after losing running back Saquon Barkley but we love the early buy low spot with no one wanting a piece of New York. Besides us. This is the typical offseason overreaction which we love to go against, whether it be the good or bad hype, and it is the latter in this case with a lot of that directed toward quarterback Daniel Jones who is back after an injury filled 2023 season which included a torn ACL in Week Nine. He looked below average in the preseason but we cannot take too much out of that. The biggest problem on offense last season was not necessarily the loss of Jones but it was the offensive line as they allowed an NFL worst 85 sacks, 20 more than the next highest team. No worries about that in this matchup. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball and Jones should have time. The Vikings defense showed improvement going from second worst in total defense to No. 16 but Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone and they finished last season with only 43 sacks. Daboll has taken over the play calling after two years and we love that move. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins which is a huge loss and they will turn to Sam Darnold who does not instill much confidence. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off with Darnold and his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here with the exception of Justin Jefferson but he could struggle without Cousins. The Giants defense was not horrendous last season and the signing of Brian Burns was significant. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Giants fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (460) New York Giants
Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's.
Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as "Mr. Analysis" as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.
Rating Scale
Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays.
Enforcer – this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted.
Supreme Annihilator – this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line.
Dark Horse Dandy – this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright.
Star Attraction – this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities.
Total Dominator – while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports.