40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Arizona State -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Sun Devils cashing in a win and cover at home against Georgia. I just think the books have completely missed the mark here with this line, as I got Arizona State winning this one by double-digits. This is really the first big true road test for the Bulldogs and it's a long long way from home. Arizona State is 7-2 with their only two losses coming to Colorado and Virginia. I just think an inexperienced Bulldogs team is going to struggle to keep this close. Give me the Sun Devils -3.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Texas -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the 14-point spread at home against Central Michigan. The Chippewas want to try to outscore their opponents and are doing a decent job of it against teams of their caliber. It hasn't quite worked against the big boys. They lost by 25 at Minnesota, by 13 at DePaul and by 22 at Valpo. Central Michigan allowed 82.3 ppg in those 3 losses, so look for Texas to score at will here. As for the Chippewas offense, they are averaging 90.0 ppg for the season, but just 62.3 ppg in those 3 road losses and Texas is giving up just 58.4 ppg. GIve me the Longhorns -14! 

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Georgetown -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hoyas as a small home favorite against the Orange. Georgetown had two more players transfer on Friday, as Myron Gardner and Galen Alexander have decided to part ways. With that said I think this negative publicity has created some value here with the Hoyas. 

While both of those guys played, neither was contributing at a high level. The depth isn't what it use to be, but the talent is definitely still there for Georgetown and I think we see the kids who are still around play with a chip on their shoulder. 

As for Syracuse, they come in off a 97-63 blowout win at Georgia Tech, but had lost 3 straight prior to that win and I just haven't been that impressed with this Orange team. I the Cuse get a little too much credit because all of their losses have come against quality opponents, but at the same time all 4 losses they have had have all been by 14 or more points.

It's also worth noting the Orange couldn't miss from deep in their win against Georgia Tech. They shot 14-33 (42%) from behind the 3-point line. Syracuse is a mere 3-12 ATS since 1997 after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers. Give me Georgetown! 

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40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 137.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 137.5 in Saturday's big non-conference game that has Michigan hosting Oregon. The Wolverines are a really good offensive team and as is the case with most teams they are much better at home. Michigan is averaging 88.4 ppg at home and last time they played at the Crisler Center they scored 103 points against Iowa. Oregon comes in scoring 78.9 ppg and are scoring 76.8 ppg in their last 5. I just think both teams are going to hit at least 70 points and if they do we cash this thing easy. Give me the OVER 137.5! 

40* NBA SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Mavs -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Mavs covering the 7.5-point spread at home against the Heat. This might seem like a big number for Dallas to be laying against a Miami team that has started strong, but this is simply the ideal spot to fade the Heat. Miami put everything they had on the line in last night's game against the Lakers and to make matters worse they blew a big lead and wound up losing a heartbreaker by 3. They are also playing shorthanded with several key guys out, which I believe makes it almost impossible for them to keep it close against the Mavs. We saw Miami in a similar spot earlier this month. They beat Toronto on the road as a dog and then the next night lost by 19 at Boston. Give me the Mavs -7.5! 

50* ARMY/NAVY SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Army +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with Army as a double-digit dog. I just think there’s a ton of value here with the Black Knights in this one.

Forget about how Army didn’t meet expectations this year. A win here and nobody will care about what they weren’t able to accomplish this season. They are going to bring it on Saturday and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they pulled off the upset and won their 4th straight in the series.

The big thing to keep in mind with Army’s 5-7 record is they were on the wrong end of a lot of close games. In fact, their only loss by more than 9 points all season was their regular-season finale at Hawaii which saw the Rainbow Warriors return a pick 100 yards for a score. Instead of likely losing 38-45, they fell 31-52.

The numbers also suggest these two are a lot closer in terms of talent than the line would suggest. Both are elite rushing teams. Navy was No. 1 in the country in rushing and Army was No. 2. Both are also strong defensively. Midshipmen finished 33rd in total defense (324.5 ypg) and the Black Knights were 29th (337.8 ypg).

Something else to keep in mind is that while Navy went 7-1 in AAC play, they were very fortunate not having to play either UCF or Cincinnati out of the East. I just don’t think the Midshipmen are quite as good as people think. Give me Army +10.5!