FREE PICK: Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 503

I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 3.5-point road dog against the Wizards. I don't think you can blindly play revenge in the NBA, but this is a spot where I think Cleveland is going to come out with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder. 

There's just some losses that stick with you and I got to believe one of those for the Cavs is a 94-97 loss at home to these Wizards back on Nov. 10. Cleveland was up 87-78 midway thru the 4th quarter and up 93-89 with 30 seconds to play and lost 94-97. 

This Cavs team has been the best bet in the NBA, as they come into this game having gone 15-5 ATS. They have covered each of their last 5. Washington is off to an equally surprising start, but they are just 12-9 ATS and are only 3-6 ATS in their last 9. 

You could also argue that the Cavs take no loss lightly, as they have gone 14-4 ATS playing with revenge this season. Give me Cleveland +3.5! 

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40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 158.5) 

This might be a little bit of a square play taking a public OVER with a high total, but I just don't think 158.5 is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. Everyone knows that Purdue is good. They were expected to be coming in and they are not only scoring 92.4 ppg, they are ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

Iowa wasn't suppose to be this good. Not after losing two guys to the NBA, including the player of the year in Garza. They are and it's because they got another NBA caliber guy shouldering the load in sophomore Keegan Murray, who is averaging 24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg and 2.3 bpg. 

The Hawkeyes offense is averaging 94.0 ppg and are No.3  in the country in offensive efficiency. I did have some concern whether the offense was just beating up on bad teams, but to go on the road and put up 75 points on 54% shooting against a defensive minded Virginia team (Cavs hadn't given up 70 in a game prior to that) tells me their offense is the real deal. 

The other big thing is Iowa's defense let a bad Virginia offense score 74 and shoot 53%. That's concerning given that was the first offense they had faced this year that ranked inside the Top 220 in offensive efficiency (Virginia is No. 78). Purdue is going to score at will. Give me the OVER 158.5! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Pelicans +7.5) 

We cashed an ugly play on the Pistons +13 last night, as we faded the Suns off that big win over the Warriors. It's not quite the same with this play, but I like the Pelicans catching 7.5 in this one. These two teams just played at New Orleans on Wednesday and the Mavs won that game in a blowout 139-107. Not only did they win big, they set a franchise record for shooting, connecting on 68.7% of their shot attempts. 

That's absurd good and any time a team has a record-setting performance like that, it's really hard to live up that hype in that next game out. I also think them playing the same team they just annihilated takes away some competitive fight, while it gives a little more motivation to the Pelicans with revenge on the table. 

Mavs are just 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons priced as home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 7-20 ATS last 27 at home off a road win. Give me the Pelicans +7.5! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5!