#616 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -9.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - How much does this Ole Miss team have left in the tank? This will be their 4th game in 4 days as they were dogs vs Texas, Georgia, and Bama and pulled upsets in each. The last 2 games both went to the wire as they topped UGA by 4 and Alabama by 1 with the Tide getting a point blank shot blocked in the final few seconds. There has been some big time 3 point variance in this tourney for the Rebels. In their last 2 games, they shot almost 44% from beyond the arc which is well above their SEC average of 32% which ranked them 15th in the conference. Their 2 opponents, Bama and UGA who ranked 3rd the 5th in the SEC in 3 point FG%, hit just 18 of 67 triples combined (26%) vs a Mississippi D that ranked 9th in the league in 3 point defense. Today they face a much fresher Arkansas team that has played only 1 game in this tourney. They got a bit of a scare last night beating a red hot Oklahoma team by 3. Nothing to be ashamed of as the Sooners were playing at a top 25 level (per Torvik analytics) since February 1st. These 2 met once this season with the Razorbacks pulling off a 7 point win @ Ole Miss despite the Rebels hitting 51% of their shots. Arkansas star PG Acuff missed the season finale @ Missouri and they still won that game. He was back yesterday and put up 37 points and he ate up Mississippi’s D in the first meeting with 26 points and 9 assists. We’re actually getting some value on Arkansas here at -9.5. Ole Miss was +12 yesterday vs Alabama who ranks almost identical to the Razors per KenPom. And it’s an even better spot to fade the Rebs playing 4 games in 4 days. Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC behind Florida and ranked as the 2nd best in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 2nd in 3 point FG%, 2nd in 2 point FG%, and 1st in offensive turnover rate. Ole Miss has had a nice little run in this tourney but they were the 3rd worst team in the SEC this year ahead of only South Carolina and Mississippi State (per KenPom). They only won 4 games the entire season in the SEC and now have won 3 in 3 days. It ends here and Arkansas rolling to an easy win.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 3:30pm ET - We like this Hornets team and what they’ve done this season and expect them to be a tough out in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but this is going to be a tall task to win in San Antonio Saturday. Charlotte is coming off two straight road wins over the Kings and Blazers (yawn). Prior to that they lost in Phoenix as a +5.5-point dog, 99-111. In other words, the Spurs, who might be the best team in the NBA, are favored by the same number at home as the Suns were just a few nights ago. Plus, we have the Spurs coming off a home loss the other night to Denver, a game in which they led by as many as 20-points. San Antonio is 11-7 ATS when coming off a loss this season with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. While Charlotte is 8-2 SU in their last ten games, only one of those wins came against a team with a .500 record or better. In fact three of those wins came against the Kings, Pacers and Wizards, the three worst teams in the league. The Spurs are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games with the two losses to the Knicks and Nuggets who are both better than this Charlotte team. In their last 15 games the Spurs are 13-2 SU with an average point differential of +12.7ppg – the best number in the NBA. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team overall at 45.9% (26th) but do hit 37.9% from the 3-point line and rely heavily on their 3PT shooting. San Antonio allows the 4th lowest FG% in the league at 45.2% and the 12th lowest 3PT% at 35.5% which will make scoring tough for Charlotte. On the opposite end of the court the Spurs should have their way offensively against the Hornets D that ranks 16th in overall defensive efficiency allowing 1.152-points per possession. Wemby is questionable tonight but even if he doesn’t play we like the Spurs in this matchup.

#37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-105) - Ottawa vs Anaheim, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Anaheim is off a 6-4 loss at Toronto marred by the Gudas hit on Matthews.  The Ducks lost 6-4 in that one and have now allowed at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 9 games!  The Senators are off of a 3-2 loss but had scored an average of 4.4 goals in their 5 preceding games.  The Sens are happy to be back on home ice and the Ducks are ready to respond off a loss as well.  This one sets up well for a back and forth match-up with plenty of scoring.  Anaheim has scored at least 4 goals in 8 of their last 11 games.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Saturday in Ottawa

English Premier League #200009/200010 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-122) – Newcastle United at Chelsea, Saturday at 1:30 et - Chelsea has been more free-flowing and attack-minded under Rosenoir.  Since the new manager took over in early January this is not the same type of Blues club we are used to seeing.  Chelsea has been scoring quite well but they can't keep the door shut at the back and they are being exposed to high-quality scoring chances as a result.  That said, it comes as no surprise that we are seeing a trend of high-scoring matches involving Chelsea and we don't see that changing here either.  Chelsea is coming off a 5-2 loss in Champions League action and that was the 7th time in their last 8 matches that a game has reached at least 3 goals.  6 of those 7 reached a total of at least 4 goals and that is what is expected here again as well.  Newcastle United is off a 1-1 draw in Champions League action but this was on the heels of 11 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals!  8 of those 11 matches reached at least the 4-goal mark so though we only need 3 goals for a push here, one can see why we are fully expecting more than that and a nice top game winner here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability range for this match to finish in the 4 to 5 range for total goals!  This one is set up well to get to 4+ goals and the Over gets the call in this one!  

#605/606 ASA PLAY ON Over 148.5 Points – Dayton vs St Louis, Saturday at 1 PM ET - St Louis plays at the fastest tempo in the A10 and 23rd fastest nationally. Dayton isn’t a fast paced team but they are middle of the pack in the conference so they aren’t overly slow. In their 2 meetings this season they had 73 and 70 possessions and we expect at least 70 in this one. They had 1 high scoring match up this year (173 total points) and one that was lower at 139. Even at 139, it’s not all that far off from this total in the upper 140’s. In the lower scoring game, Dayton held St Louis to 0.89 PPP which was their lowest efficiency of the entire season. The Billikens average 1.19 PPP in conference play which was #1 in the A10. They average 88 PPG on the season and rank in the top 5 nationally in offensive FG% and 3 point FG%. In their first meeting with Dayton they put up 100+ points on 1.40 PPP so we expect them to play very well offensively in this one. They are a great 3 point shooting team ranking 2nd in the nation hitting 40% from deep. That just happens to be Dayton’s defensive weakness as they allow opponents to shoot 35% from beyond the arc (264th nationally). We have a feeling the Flyers are going to have to “keep up” in this one. They should be able to do just that vs a St Louis defense that has fallen off the map over the last few months. They have very good overall defensive stats ranking 53rd in defensive efficiency per Torvik analytics but since February 1st they rank 177th in the stat. The Billikens have allowed at least 75 points in 6 of their last 7 games and since February 1st they are allowing 74 PPG and that includes 2 games holding LaSalle and Loyola, 2 poor offenses, to 58 and 59 points. Both teams send opponents to the FT line at a high rate and they combined for 86 FT attempts in their 2 games and we expect the same here. The Flyers have scored 70+ points in both meetings vs STL this season and if they get to that range again, this one goes Over.