20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-103)

The Boston Red Sox are rolling right now in going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  They have won seven of those games by two runs or more.  I believe they cover the Run Line with ease today against the lowly Minnesota Twins.

Steven Wright has earned All-Star status this season in going 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 18 starts.  Wright is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.  He faces the Twins on June 10 this season, not allowing a single earned run in 7 1/3 innings of an 8-1 victory.

Tyler Duffey is 5-6 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Twins.  Duffey faced Wright and the Red Sox on June 10, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of that 1-8 defeat.

Minnesota is 4-22 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season.  It is losing by 1.7 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Boston is 8-2 in Wright's last 10 starts and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-130)

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost their first two games back from the All-Star Break to the Padres, including a blown save yesterday in the 9th inning.  Look for them to avoid the sweep and win by multiple runs Sunday.

Johnny  Cueto has been awesome this season, going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 18 starts.  Cueto is 8-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in nine road starts.  The right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres.

Cueto has been untouchable against the Padres in 2016, going 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA while allowing only one earned run in 27 innings.  He'll be opposed by the washed-up Edwin Jackson, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Cueto is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.  The Giants are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Cueto is 15-1 (+13.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Giants are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight for the second time in two weeks.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home from an 11-game road trip today in Game 1 of this series against the Cincinnati Reds.

I look for the Cubs to win by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.793 WHIP in in seven home starts.  Hendricks is 2-1 with a 4.04 ERA in six career starts against the Reds.

Cody Reed has not fared well in limited action this season.  He's 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in three starts.  One of those starts was against the Cubs on June 29.  Reed allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers over 4 innings of a 2-9 loss to Hendricks and the Cubs.

Cincinnati is 1-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-16 (-14.2 Units) against the money line revenging a 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-106)

Steven Wright has been the best starter for the Boston Red Sox all season.  I look for him to dominate the struggling Chicago White Sox today and for the Red Sox to win by multiple runs as a result.

Wright has been nothing short of brilliant all season, going 8-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  Wright is also 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

Miguel Gonzalez hasn't been able to provide the White Sox with the lift they had hoped for in their rotation.  He's 1-2 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Gonzalez has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his last five starts against Boston while not once pitching past the 6th inning.

Chicago is 0-8 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  It is losing by 2.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  The White Sox are 4-15 against the run line (-13.3 Units) after having lost six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-141)

The Cubs have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to improve to 39-16 on the season for the MLB's best record.  But they are coming off a loss yesterday, which will have them motivated in Game 1 of this series against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cubs have a massive advantage on the mound today that will lead them to victory by multiple runs.  Jon Lester is 6-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Lester has never lost to the Phillies, going 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Adam Morgan is clearly the worst starter in the Phillies' rotation.  He's 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Morgan has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 1.989 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Chicago is 16-5 against the run line (+11.5 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Cubs are a very profitable 34-21 against the run line (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+111)

The Rockies have lost two of the first three games of this series to the Reds and four of their last five overall.  They'll be hungry to square the series in Game 4 here tonight and to get back in the win column.  I like their chances of doing so by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Eddie Butler has certainly held his own this season, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in five starts.  He has only given up 32 base runners in 27 2/3 innings and has been unfortunate to give up 14 earned runs with those results.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in baseball.  He's 1-5 with a 9.15 ERA and 2.008 WHIP in nine starts, including 0-3 with a monstrous 13.85 ERA and 2.846 WHIP in four road starts.  Simon is also 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

Cincinnati is 12-24 against the run line (-16.5 Units) in night games this season.  The Reds are 5-15 against the run line (-12.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 this season.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in Simon's last 11 road starts.  The Reds are 19-49 in their last 68 overall.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-109)

The Colorado Rockies exploded for 17 runs in a 17-4 beat down of the Cincinnati Reds yesterday to put an end to a 3-game losing streak.  Look for their bats to stay red hot today and for them to win by multiple runs thanks to their massive advantage on the mound.

Tyler Chatwood has been nothing short of brilliant for the Rockies, going 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his last three.  He has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts.

John Lamb is still looking for his first win of the season for the Reds.  Lamb is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.817 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 15.25 ERA and 2.868 WHIP in two road starts.

The Reds are 0-5 in Lamb's five starts this season and 0-8 in his last eight starts overall.  Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 46-12 (79.3%, +32.8 units) over the last five seasons.

Colorado is 19-4 against the run line (+16.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-10 against the run line (-11.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+108)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight games coming in.  I look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Ace Zack Greinke gets the ball to stop the bleeding.  Greinke is coming around, going 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has owned the Padres, going 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.

Cesar Vargas wouldn't start on most teams in the majors.  He's 0-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts.  Look for the Diamondbacks to get on him early and often in this one.

Greinke is 25-3 (+18.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Enough said.  Take the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-109)

After losing three of their last four games overall, the Chicago Cubs come into this series with the San Francisco Giants highly motivated for a victory.  I look for them to take Game 1 by two runs or more thanks to the massive edge they have on the mound tonight.

Jake Arrieta has been the best starter in baseball since midseason last year.  He has opened the 2016 campaign 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.633 WHIP in four road starts.  Arrieta is also 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  In two starts against the Giants last season, Arrieta went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, pitching 13 2/3 shutout innings.

There may not be a starter in baseball that I like fading more than Jake Peavy.  The guy is simply done for.  Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Giants, giving up 33 runs in 40 innings.  He won't last long today against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Cubs.

Arrieta is 21-3 against the run line (+19.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 7-0 against the run line (+7.7 Units) against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 21-4 against the run line (+19.6 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.  Peavy is 7-20 against the run line (-15.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130)

The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six of their last seven games coming in with those six losses coming by a combined 8 runs.  Their lone win during this stretch was a 7-1 victory over the Yankees with Chris Sale tossing a complete game.

Sale is arguably the best starter in baseball this season.  He has gone 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in eight starts.  The left-hander has owned the Astros, going 3-1 with a 0.56 ERA and 0.719 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has given up just 2 earned runs in 32 innings with 47 strikeouts.

Collin McHugh has been awful for the Astros.  He is 4-3 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP in three road starts.  McHugh is also 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his lone career start against Chicago.

Sale is 17-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in May games in his career with the Sox winning by 2.4 runs per game.  Chicago is 17-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 straight losses by 2 runs or less since 1997, winning by 2.3 runs per game.  Instead of laying the big juice on the money line, we'll back the White Sox on the run line today.  Take Chicago on the Run Line Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

Taking the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line has been a very profitable move all season considering they are scoring 5.9 runs per game and giving up 2.9 runs per game for the best run differential in baseball.  We'll back them on the Run Line Tuesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kyle Hendricks is having a fine season just like the rest of the Cubs' starting staff.  He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three.  Hendricks has owned the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in his last seven starts against them.

I'll gladly bet against Chase Anderson today.  The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 2.176 WHIP in three home starts.  Anderson is also 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Cubs are 13-3 against the run line (+9.9 Units) in road games this season.  Chicago is 14-4 against the run line (+10.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.  The Cubs are 7-0 against the run line (+8.2 Units) after a loss this season.  Chicago is 10-0 against the run line (+11.0 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last three seasons.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

I'm going to back the Cleveland Indians on the run line today due to the massive edge they have on the mound.  It also doesn't hurt that they come in with a lot of confidence at the plate after throttling the Cincinnati Reds 15-6 Monday.

Look for Danny Salazar to continue his torrid start to 2016.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two home starts.  Salazar has struck out 53 batters in 42 2/3 innings.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in the majors this season.  He is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.640 WHIP in two road starts.  Simon gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 2/3 innings in his lone start at Cleveland last season.

Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 42-12 (77.8%, +28.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-7 against the run line (-8.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+102)

Any time Jake Arrieta takes the mound, it's a good idea to bet the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line.  Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA this season) is 16-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 18 regular-season starts since last losing on July 25 of last season.

The Cubs have won 18 straight games in which Arrieta has started.  They have won 19 of his last 21 starts by 2 runs or more.  Arrieta is 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh with his teams winning seven of those 10 starts by 2 runs or more.

Jon Niese isn't about to beat Arrieta today.  The left-hander has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Niese is 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Arrieta is 20-3 against the run line (+18.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons with the Cubs winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to put an end to a 6-game losing streak.  Now they send ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound to do the dirty work, and I believe they win this game by multiple runs over the San Diego Padres today.

Kershaw has been dominant again this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander has owned the Padres, going 13-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  Kershaw has gone 5-0 in his last eight starts against the Padres while allowing seven earned runs, 25 hits, 13 walks while recording 75 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.

Drew Pomeranz has pitched well at home for San Diego, but he's just 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Pomeranz is also 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

Pomeranz is 0-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with his teams losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+104)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win this game by multiple runs tonight against the hapless Atlanta Braves.  The Braves are 0-7 this season while losing five of those seven games by two-plus runs.

Stephen Strasburg gave up one earned run in 6 innings of a 3-1 victory over Atlanta in his first start this season.  He is now 4-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last four starts against Atlanta, giving up just one earned run in 24 innings.

Matt Wisler has not enjoyed the same kind of success against the Nationals.  He is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.

Atlanta is 11-40 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 2.6 runs/game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

It's going to be exciting to see the atmosphere in Toronto today with a fan base starved for playoff baseball.  They've been waiting 22 years for this moment.  They last time they made the playoffs in 1993, they won it all behind a star-studded lineup.

This Toronto team is even more explosive than that one.  Toronto was the only team to top 800 runs this season, and it was 127 runs better than second-place.  That's the biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses since 1953.  The Blue Jays scored double-digit runs 26 times this season.  They also lead the majors in homers (232), RBIs (852) and walks (570).

David Price proved to be a huge addition to the rotation prior to the deadline.  The left-hander has gone 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts after he was acquired from Detroit on July 30.  He'll be up against Yovani Gallardo, who struggled down the stretch going 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Toronto os a perfect 10-0 against the money line in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  It is winning by 4.7 runs per game in this spot.  Price is 11-1 against the money line in day games this season.  His teams are winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-116)

The Los Angeles Angels are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall and have saved their best for last when these games have mattered most.  They are currently the second wild card in the American League and only two games back of Texas for first place in the AL West.

The Oakland A's packed it in a long time ago.  They are just 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  They are even giving Barry Zito a start tonight just to honor him as this will be his last season.  He gave up four earned runs in two innings of a 10-14 loss to San Francisco in his only start of the season on September 26.

Los Angeles will be giving the ball to one of its best starters tonight in Garrett Richards.  He is 15-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 30 starts.  But Richards has been at his best at home, going 10-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over 19 innings in his last three starts against the A's.

Oakland is 1-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Zito is 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Richards is 19-3 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three seasons.  The Angels are winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-133)

I'll back the Chicago Cubs on the run line today and avoid the -300 juice.  Rarely will you see a baseball team laying -300 juice unless they have a massive advantage on the mound.  That's certainly the case for the Cubs tonight.

Jake Arrieta is a deserving candidate of the 2015 NL Cy Young Award.  He has gone 19-6 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  Arrieta has been untouchable in the second half, posting 17 straight quality starts while going 13-1 with a 1.01 ERA during that stretch.

I'll gladly fade Tyler Cravy of the Brewers.  The right-hander is 0-7 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in five starts and six relief appearances in 2015, including 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cravy faced the Cubs on August 13, giving up four earned runs, eight base runners and two homers over 4 1/3 innings of a 2-9 loss in Chicago.

Arrieta is 14-1 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season with the Cubs winning by 2.6 runs/game.  He has gone 13-2 against the run line during this stretch.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Angels trail the Houston Astros by 2.5 games for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They cannot afford to lose this series to the Astros if they want to make the postseason.  Look for them to come out with an inspired effort in Game 1 Monday.

Jered Weaver has pitched very well of late, going 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those was against Houston on September 11 as Weaver allowed two earned runs in six innings of a 3-2 victory.  He improved to 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

Dallas Keuchel was dominant in the first half of the season, but he has slowed down here of late.  Keuchel allowed nine earned runs and three homers over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rangers.  He sports a 4.13 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Angels.

Houston is 7-23 against the run line (-18.2 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  The Astros are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Houston is 1-7 in its last eight games following a win.  In a game that could easily be decided by one run, we'll take the Angels at a great price on the Run Line Monday.

15* AL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +1.5 (-124)

Instead of taking the Cleveland Indians as +130 underdogs, I'm going to take the extra run here by paying 54 cents of juice.  I believe the Indians will win this game, but at only -124 on the run line it's worth taking the extra run.  The Indians still have a shot at the wild card as they are only four games back.

Cody Anderson has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 4-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three.  Those three came against the Tigers (twice) and Blue Jays, so he has pitched well against great lineups.

Chris Sale is overvalued here.  The White Sox are out of contention and have nothing to play for.  Sale has struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those came against the Indians on September 7 as he allowed three runs on three homers in a 2-3 loss.  He is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA in 13 career starts against Cleveland.

Sale is 12-28 against the run line (-15.1 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 16-43 against the run line (-20.7 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 this season.  Sale is 1-12 against the run line (-11.0 Units) as a road favorite when the run line price is +105 to +130 in his career.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees put an end to a 2-game skid with an emphatic 15-4 win over the Braves yesterday.  The Braves even had to pitch a positional player.  While the Yankees are playing for the AL East Title, the Braves have packed it in a long time ago.  They are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with nine of those losses coming by two runs or more.

Yankees rookie Luis Severino has lived up to the hype in limited action this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.087 WHIP over four starts with 24 strikeouts in 23 innings.  This guy is one of the top young prospects in the game and has carried over his success from the minors.

Matt Wisler has been a big disappointment for the Braves.  Wisler is 5-4 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts.

Atlanta is 0-11 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-115)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-49) are showing great value today even on the run line as favorites against the Miami Marlins (51-76).  The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by two runs or more.  That trend will continue tonight.

Gerrit Cole is one of the best starters in baseball.  He has gone 14-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Cole gave up two earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Marlins on May 27 in his only start against them in 2015.

Justin Nicolino has held his own in limited action this season for the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts.  But he's 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three home starts.  Nicolino won't get any run support here as the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

Miami is 11-20 against the run line (-14.2 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.  The Marlins are 4-16 against the run line (-14.7 Units) after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 11-1 in Cole's last 12 starts vs. NL East foes.  Bet the Pirates on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+102)

After losing the first three games of this series to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to avoid the sweep tonight.  I like their chances to win this game by multiple runs due to the massive edge they have on the mound.

Zach Greinke has posted NL Cy Young-caliber numbers to this point.  He has gone 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.969 WHIP over 13 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke sports a 2.91 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas as well.

Anthony Ranuado has made just one start this season for Texas, and it was a horrible one.  He gave up six earned runs and eight base runners over 1 2/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to the Angels on April 15th.  I expect he'll get roughed up by this potent Dodgers' lineup today as well.

Greinke is 13-2 against the run line (+13.7 Units) after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Dodgers are winning in this spot by an average of 3.2 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched the NL Cy Young & MVP Award level that he did last year.  He's just 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  However, it's only a matter of time before he returns to his dominant old self.

Kershaw is coming off arguably his best start of the season against the Braves.  He pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just four base runners and striking out 10 in an 8-0 victory on May 26th.  Look for him to build off that start tonight.

Kyle Kendrick is no match for Kershaw.  The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field.  Kendrick is 3-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

What really intrigues me about this play is Kershaw's recent performances against Colorado.  The left-hander is 15-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Rockies.  In fact, the Dodgers are 11-1 against the run line in Kershaw's last 12 starts against Colorado, winning 11 of those 12 starts by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are massive road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line today.  While I was tempted to go with the money line, I believe the smart play is to take them on the run line in a game that has an excellent chance of being decided by a single run.

This game is expected to be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel with the two studs that are on the mound tonight.  I trust in Alex Wood to put forth one of his best efforts of the season tonight against Zach Greinke and the Dodgers.

Wood has gone 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts this year.  He has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts away from home.  In his lone career start against the Dodgers last year, Wood allowed one earned run in 7 innings of a 2-3 loss in L.A.

Atlanta is 371-174 against the run line (+77.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (ATLANTA) - bad offensive team (4.1 runs/game or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 229-132 (63.4%, +82.6 units) since 1997.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-112)

The Washington Nationals get the call today against the Philadelphia Phillies.  Instead of laying heavy -270 juice to back the Nationals on the money line, I'm going to save a ton of juice and take them on the run line in this one.

The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 10 of their last 12 wins have come by 2 runs or more.  Max Scherzer is 4-3 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan gets the ball for the Phillies.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one road start, which was a 7-2 loss at Washington against Scherzer on April 17th.  O'Sullivan is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Washington.

Scherzer is 8-0 against the run line (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 3-19 against the run line (-15.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +105 to +120 since 1997.  Scherzer is 9-0 against the run line (+9.0 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to -155 over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value on the run line today with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the worst team in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers and the struggling Kyle Lohse.

The 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP winner isn't off to the greatest start in 2015, but he is still 1-2 with a respectable 3.73 ERA, including 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse has been brutal in the early going.  He has gone 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA through five starts.  Lohse has allowed 8 homers and 24 earned runs over 29 2/3 innings this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 20-5 against the run line (+15.7 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.  Kershaw is 13-2 against the run line (+11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Los Angeles is 22-4 against the run line (+19.2 Units) in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-12 against the run line (-13.4 Units) in night games this season.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+101)

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight blowout victories to get to 4-6 on the season.  They have outscored their last two opponents 15-7, and I look for third straight victory by multiple runs tonight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Max Scherzer, the top free agent this offseason, is already living up to his $210 million contract.  He has posted a 0.66 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just one earned run over 13 2/3 innings.  Scherzer is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan is part of one of the worst starting staffs in baseball.  He certainly wouldn't make many rotations in the league other than Philadelphia.  That's because he is 10-17 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.555 WHIP over 237 1/3 innings in his six-year career in the majors.

Scherzer is 11-1 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  His teams are outscoring the opposition 6.8 to 2.6 in this spot, or by an average of 4.2 runs per game.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-135)

We are getting serious value on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line in Game 1 of this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Clayton Kershaw being nearly a 2-1 favorite on the money line over Adam Wainwright is an absolute joke, and we'll take advantage by backing the Cardinals on the run line in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.

If not for Kershaw, Wainwright would be your 2014 NL Cy Young winner.  He has gone 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 32 starts, yet he doesn't get near the recognition that Kershaw does.  Look for him to take this one personal and to be on top of his game tonight.

Wainwright has been at his best on the road this season, going 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 18 road starts.  He saved his best stuff for last as well, going 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wainwright has posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 13 career starts against Los Angeles.  Kershaw, meanwhile, is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 17 career starts against St. Louis. 

In Wainwright's 13 starts against Los Angeles, only twice have the Cardinals lost by more than one run.  In Kershaw's 17 starts against St. Louis, only four times have the Dodgers won by more than one run.

Kershaw is 1-10 against the run line (-9.5 Units) in home games after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  Kershaw is 3-17 against the run line (-14.6 Units) in home games in Friday games in his career.   The Cardinals are 53-24 in Wainwright's last 77 starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-108)

While the Detroit Tigers (83-66) haven't completely lived up to expectations thus far in 2014, they are still in first place in the AL Central by 1.5 games.  They have also turned it on here of late when these games have mattered the most.  I look for them to win by 2-plus runs against the lowly Minnesota Twins (63-86) in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Max Scherzer is having another dominant season to really prove his worth.  The right-hander is 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.168 WHIP over 30 starts this year.  Scherzer is 8-2 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 14 career starts against Minnesota.  He has won each of his last five starts against the Twins with three of those coming by 2-plus runs.

Anthony Swarzak makes just his second start of the season for Minnesota.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.342 WHIP over 73 innings pitched this year with almost all of those coming as a reliever.  Swarzak has been owned by Detroit, going 0-2 with a monstrous 12.65 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers.

Minnesota is 6-25 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season, losing by 2.4 runs/game.  The Twins are 4-28 (-23.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season, losing by 2.9 runs/game. 

The Tigers are 42-13 in Scherzer's last 55 starts as a favorite.  Scherzer is 6-0 against the run line (+7.4 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.  Take the Tigers Monday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +1.5 (-120)

The Houston Astros have been playing great every since manager Bo Porter was fired.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall despite being an underdog in eight of those contests.  I expect them to win tonight, but I'm taking them on the run line for some added insurance.

This is a tough spot for the Angels.  They will be returning from a 10-game road trip that saw them go 8-2.  That first home game back from a long road trip is tough on players because they have household obligations, which can be a distraction.  Also, the Angels have all but wrapped up the best record in the AL, so it could be tough to stay motivated.

I'll gladly fade C.J. Wilson, who is 11-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Houston is batting .447 against Wilson in his last three starts in the series, during which he's gone 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA.  He has allowed 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners over 10 1/3 innings during this stretch.

Houston is 45-23 against the run line (+17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Astros are 30-14 against the run line (+13.2 Units) vs. left-handed starters this season.  Houston is 70-45 against the run line (+15.5 Units) after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Oberholtzer is 13-4 against the run line (+8.7 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-121)

I really do believe the Cubs will probably win outright today, but I'm going to take them on the run line for a little more insurance in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.  The Cubs will be motivated following six straight losses, and they have no problem playing the role of spoiler with all of their talented prospects seeing significant time down the stretch.

Tsuyoshi Wada makes this a very solid play.  There's no question he should be getting overlooked like he is here.  Wada has gone 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Cubs.

At the same time, Gerrit Cole is getting too much respect.  He has gone 8-5 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 18 starts.  Cole has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts as well.

The Pirates are in a tough spot here.  It's almost always tough to return from a long road trip for that first home game because there are too many distractions around the household for these players.  They return home from a 10-game trip here.

Chicago is 45-25 against the run line (+16.4 Units) after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games are 51-24 (68%, +23.8 units) over the last five seasons.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros +1.5 (-101)

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value on the run line tonight.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall, which pretty much coincided with the firing of manager Bo Porter.  They have done so behind a team ERA of 2.04 during this stretch.

Houston calls up rookie Nick Tropeano from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make his big league debut tonight.  The right-hander went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA over 23 minor league games.  20 of those were starts, and he struck out 120 over 124 2/3 innings.  He'll have an advantage as the Mariners won't know what to expect.

Seattle gives the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma, who is one of the better starters in the big leagues, but he appears to be wearing down over the stretch run.  Indeed, Iwakuma has posted a 7.25 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs and 20 base runners over 13 2/3 innings.  He has given up exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts against Houston.

Houston is 44-23 against the run line (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Astros are 33-17 against the run line (+13.8 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Houston is 66-39 against the run line (+21.7 Units) after three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Angels (70-49) have the second-best record in baseball.  They trail the Oakland A's by just two games for the AL West lead and will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way to go for it.  They had a day off yesterday and not get to face the league-worst Texas Rangers (47-74), who did not have yesterday off and lost the Rays (6-3).

Garrett Richards has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  The right-hander has gone 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 24 starts, including 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Richards is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in nine career starts against Texas. He has allowed one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers this season.

Nick Martinez is easily one of the worst starters in baseball.  The right-hander has gone 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season.  Martinez has been at his worst at home, going 0-4 with a monstrous 10.18 ERA and 2.361 WHIP in five starts.

The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Rangers with six of those victories coming by two runs or more.  The Rangers are 0-9 against the run line (-11.8 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.  Texas is 0-9 against the run line (-11.4 Units) in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Friday.

15* Angels/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-111)

The Los Angeles Angels are showing tremendous value on the run line today against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers are clearly overvalued here due to having Clayton Kershaw on the mound, and we'll take advantage.

Hector Santiago is having a fine season for the Angels and he's not getting the respect he deserves here.  The right-hander has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.253 WHIP over 79 innings pitched this year.  He is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kershaw is having another dominant campaign, but he has struggled recently against the Angels.  He is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 11 earned runs, three homers and 25 base runners over 21 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 0-9 against the run line (-12.2 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 5-15 against the run line (-11.5 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Take the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +1.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Both teams will be sending their aces to the mound in this one, and I look for this contest to have a high probability of being decided by one run either way, which is why I'm siding with the run line.

Julio Teheran is having an All-Star year, going 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over 22 starts.  Sure, Clayton Kershaw has been even more dominant, but he is getting too much respect from the books here as a -200 favorite on the money line.

Kershaw is 1-0 in six career starts against Atlanta, only earning one decision.  Almost every game that he has started against the Braves has gone right down to the wire.  In fact, four of the six games were decided by exactly one run with the Dodgers winning two and the Braves winning two.

Kershaw is 9-23 against the run line (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 350-164 against the run line (+71.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Kershaw is 26-54 against the run line (-28.8 Units) in home games in night games for his career.  Take the Braves on the run line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -1.5 (-118)

The Oakland A's are a good bet almost every time you take them.  You save juice on the run line, which has been a very profitable move of late for the best team in baseball.  The A's have won four of their last five all by two-plus runs to get to 65-39 on the season.

Now, they play one of the worst teams in baseball in the Houston Astros (42-63) for the start of a new series Monday.  The Astros have lost five straight all by two-plus runs.  I look for that streak to extend to six straight tonight in Game 1 of this series.

Jesse Chavez has been one of the better starters in the game this season.  He has gone 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 20 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three.  Chavez is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Houston.  The A's have won all three of his starts against the Astros all by two-plus runs.

Brett Oberholtzer is one of the worst starters in the game.  He has gone 2-7 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.416 WHIP over 13 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.515 WHIP over six home starts this year.  Oberholtzer is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland.

Houston is 5-17 against the run line (-14.4 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot.  The A's are 8-0 in Chavez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -1.5 (-123)

The Oakland A's get the call on the -1.5 run line Sunday against the lowly Texas Rangers.  This is the best team in baseball, and they not only have a huge edge at the plate, but also on the mound tonight.

Scott Kazmir has gone 11-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 20 starts this season.  The left-hander continues to kill it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 in his last three starts.

Miles Mikolas has had a rough go of it in the big leagues this year.  He has gone 1-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.524 WHIP over four starts.  Mikolas has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 13.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts.

Kazmir is 31-8 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997.  Texas is 1-9 against the run line (-10.7 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  Kazmir is 6-0 against the run line (+6.8 Units) in road games after a win this season.  Kazmir is 15-4 against the run line (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-105)

The Washington Nationals are in a battle with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.  They have won three straight and five of their last six to pull one game ahead of the Braves.  They are really hitting on all cylinders right now.

The Colorado Rockies are tied with the Texas Rangers for the worst record in baseball at 40-59.  They have lost six in a row and really seem to have packed it in.  Guys aren't willing to play through injury right now.  They are without Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, and they could be without fellow starters Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon tonight, who are both listed as questionable.

Jordan Zimmerman takes the ball for the Nationals.  The right-hander is having another brilliant season, going 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 19 starts.  Zimmerman is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven career starts against Colorado.

Yohan Flande is off to a rough start in limited action for the Rockies.  The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in three starts this season, yielding 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Washington on June 30 as he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss.

Colorado is 23-43 against the run line (-26.3 Units) in July games over the last three seasons.  Zimmerman is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are winning 5.9 to 2.1 on average in this spot.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-128)

While it's rare, I do like taking big road underdogs on the run line just for that extra run of insurance.  A big percentage of games are decided by one run, and I believe there is a good chance that the White Sox either beat the Dodgers outright or lose by a run tonight.

This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than the line would indicate.  Jose Quintana never gets the respect he deserves, going 3-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  The left-hander pitched eight shutout innings in his lone career starts against Los Angeles.

Clayton Kershaw has been solid this year, but not as sharp as he has in the past.  The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox have the edge at the plate in this one.  They have gone 9-7 against southpaws this year while hitting .271 and scoring 5.1 runs per game in those 16 contests.  The Dodgers are 6-7 against left-handers while hitting .221 and scoring a measly 3.0 runs in those 13 games.

Plays against all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (LA DODGERS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%, +25 units) over the last five seasons.

Kershaw is 3-12 against the run line (-10.0 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 6-18 against the run line (-12.6 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to +115 over the last three seasons.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+101)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should not have a problem winning this game by 2-plus runs Friday given the massive edge they have on the mound.  I look for Clayton Kershaw to shut down the Phillies, and for the Dodgers' offense to light up Roberto Hernandez.

While the former Cy Young winner has struggled a bit in the early going, there's no question he's still one of the top starters in the game, if not the best starter.  Kershaw has gone 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in four starts this season.  The left-hander went 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 2013.  He also went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 2012, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 2011.

Roberto Hernandez has been one of the worst starters in baseball for a couple years now.  He went 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 2011, 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 2012, and 6-13 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 2013.  Hernandez is currently 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 2014 as well.

The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dodgers are 23-7 in Kershaw's last 30 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -1.5 (-117)

The Oakland A's are not going to take the Houston Astros lightly considering they were swept last series by the Texas Rangers.  That was evident in Game 1 of this series as the A's rolled to a 10-1 victory.  I expect a similar beat down in Game 2.

Oakland has been the most underrated team in baseball over the last couple years.  That has been the case again in 2014 as many picked the Rangers and Angels to finish ahead of them.  They are tied with the Rangers for 1st place in the division at 14-8, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road where they are scoring 5.8 runs per game.

Once again, it appears like the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball.  At 7-16, this team is on pace for a 4th consecutive 100-loss season.  The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games overall, and seven of those losses have come by two runs or more, which is a big reason why we're backing the A's on the run line in this one.

Jesse Chavez has been brilliant through four starts, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.923 WHIP while striking out 28 batters in 26 innings.  He beat today's scheduled starter Brad Peacock 4-1 on April 20 just five days ago.  Peacock is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.905 WHIP through 14 2/3 innings this season.

Plays against home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-130 to +110) (HOUSTON) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 30-9 (76.9%, +21.1 units) since 1997. 

Houston is 2-11 against the run line (-9.9 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 28-11 against the run line (+18.0 Units) after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits over the last three seasons.  The A's are 41-17 against the run line (+26.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last three seasons.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Friday.