|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-22-20||UNLV +5 v. Nevada||72-86||Loss||-105||14 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UNLV +5 -105
UNLV is definitely worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Wolf Pack. The Rebels are on fire right now, as they come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their 6-1 mark in the MWC trails only undefeated San Diego State and is two games clear of the next best team.
While UNLV is surging, Nevada comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win in this stretch coming by a single point at home against a Wyoming team that has not won a conference game to this point.
Rebels also just aren't just winning close games. They are dominating. All 7 wins during their 7-1 run have come by at least 9 points and last time out whooped NEw Mexico 99-78 at home. That's worth noting as the Rebels are 18-7 ATS last 25 on the road after a blowout win by 20 or more. Take UNLV!
|01-22-20||Drake v. Evansville UNDER 134||73-50||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Drake/Evansville under 134 -109
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's Missouri Valley action that has Drake vistining Evansville. This is just too many points given the circumstances.
For one, Drake is not near the offensive team on the road as they are at home. In 3 conference road games the Bulldogs are averaging just 60.7 ppg, a drastic difference from their average of 76.0 ppg in 3 conference home games. Not to mention they are coming in just 2 days removed from a horrific offensive showing at Southern Illinois, where they scored just 49 points on 36% shooting.
As for the Purple Aces, they have statistically been the worst offense in the MVC and it's not even close. Evansville ranks last in offensive efficiency at 81.8 (next worst is 89.5) and effective field goal percentage at 42.5 (next worst is 46.4).
On top of that, Purple Aces just fired head coach Walter McCarty and replaced him with Todd Lickliter, who in his days as the head coach of Iowa and Butler deployed some of the slowest paced teams in the country (9 years never higher than 316th in tempo).
It's also worth noting that Drake is favored in this matchup, as the UNDER is 10-3 in their last 13 as a road favorite and 5-0 in Evansville's last 5 as a dog. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Georgetown +5.5 v. Xavier||Top||57-66||Loss||-109||10 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +5½ -109
I love the value here with the Hoyas as a decently priced road dog against the Musketeers. Most will simply back the Musketeers here assuming they are due to breakout of their recent slump, which has seem them lose 3 straight and 4 of 5 since opening the season 11-2.
I just don't think Xavier is playing well enough right now to be laying this kind of number against a quality Georgetown team. One that has performed extremely well on the road under head coach Patrick Ewing, going 16-10 (62%) ATS.
Last time out Georgetown was done in by a crazy good night from Marquette's star guard Markus Howard, who scored 42 of the their 84 points. Hoyas did more than enough offensively in that game, scoring 80 on 50.8% shooting.
Georgetown really had no answer for Howard and the pick and roll action Marquette was using. It should be a lot easier defensively in this one. Xavier barely runs any pick and roll and likes to work it inside, which plays right into the strength of the Hoyas defense.
Playing at home has also not been a positive for the Musketeers, who are just 1-8 ATS last 9 games at the Cintas Center. Take Georgetown!
|01-21-20||Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 149.5||Top||59-89||Loss||-109||13 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB ACC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Miami-FL/Duke over 149½ -109
I love the value with the OVER in Tuesday's ACC matchup that has Duke hosting Miami. These two teams already played once this season and that game finished with a combined score of 157 as the Blue Devils won 95-62.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Duke put up 100 in this one. They have scored 88 or more 3 times in ACC play and are going to be 100% locked in for this one after losing their last two games. No team has been better in the ACC in finishing at the rim and Miami's allowing teams to convert on 64.5% of their shots at the ri, which is the 310th worst mark in the country.
I would be shocked if Duke didn't score at least 90 in this one, which means we only need Miami to eclipse 60 to cash a winner. I think they easily do that. Hurricanes just shot 47% and scored 79 points against a good FSU defense in their last game and the Blue Devils defense has really been exposed in their last two games, giving up 57% shooting to Clemson and 48% to Louisville at home.
OVER is 15-6 in Miami's last 21 vs a team with a winning record and 15-5 in Duke's last 20 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|01-21-20||Texas Tech v. TCU +3||54-65||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on TCU +3 -109
TCU is definitely worth a look here as a home dog against Texas Tech. Good spot to fade the Red Raiders, who come in having won two straight and are fresh off a 72-52 blowout win at home against Iowa State. Texas Tech's offense doesn't travel all that well and they could have a really tough time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at home against nationally ranked Kentucky.
As for the Horned Frogs they are in a big bounce back spot after losing their last two on the road. TCU had started out 3-0 in Big 12 play and are 2-0 at home inside conference action. No question they are going to give everything they have against one of their several in-state rivals.
It's been a wise move fading Tech in this spot. Red Raiders are just 3-7 ATS last 10 as a favorite, 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take TCU!
|01-20-20||NC State v. Virginia -4||53-51||Loss||-110||22 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia -4 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Cavaliers at home against NC State. Virginia was able to snap a 3-game skid with a 63-58 win and cover at Georgia Tech on Saturday. They will take that momentum into this game and look to build on their 8-2 mark at home.
NC State comes in having won two straight, but both of those wins came on their home floor against middle of the pack teams in the ACC in Clemson and Miami. Wolfpack are just 2-4 away from home this season and have lost each of their last 3 on the road, most recently falling by 14 at Virginia Tech.
Another big thing to note is NC State is really banged up right now. Their top two big men (Manny Bates and Pat Andree) both had to leave their last game with injuries. Andree figures to be a huge long shot to play and Bates is 50/50. C.J. Bryce is also just in his 3rd game back from missing action.
Virginia's Tony Bennett has won all 3 meetings over NC State head coach Kevin Keatts, including a 68-51 victory in last year's home matchup with the Wolfpack. Another thing to note is the Wolfpack like to play fast an teams that push the pace often struggle against Virginia's methodical approach. Cavaliers are 15-5 ATS last 20 times vs an uptempo team that averages 62 or more shots/game. Take Virginia!
|01-20-20||Texas v. West Virginia -8||Top||59-97||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -8 -115
I love the value here with the Mountaineers laying single-digits at home against the Longhorns, as I got West Virginia winning here by 10+ rather easily. Great spot to jump on the Mountaineers off a loss at K-State over the weekend.
In their previous two games off a loss this season they have covered with ease the next time out, beating Austin Peay by 31 as a 15-point favorite and Oklahoma State by 13 on the road as a Pick'em.
Not only is the spot great, but so is the matchup. Bob Huggins' teams are always good at offensive rebounding and this year's team is elite in that department, ranking 3rd in the country. Texas is 287th in allowing offensive boards.
Another thing to keep in mind is you a Texas team that isn't very deep playing on the road on just 1 day of rest after laying it all on the line against Kansas at home on Saturday, a game they lost after leading by 5 at the half.
Longhorns are also 0-5 ATS last 5 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Mountaineers are 7-0 ATS last 7 off a loss, 4-0 ATS last 4 as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take West Virginia!
|01-19-20||Minnesota v. Rutgers -5.5||Top||56-64||Win||100||4 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rutgers -5½ -110
Love the value here with the Scarlet Knights laying what I feel is a short number at home given just how dominant they have been at home, as well as Big Ten teams in general. Rutgers is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, which includes a 3-0 mark in conference play, having beat Wisconsin by 7, Penn State by 11 and Indiana by 9. They also have a 20-point home win over a really good Seton Hall team.
Big 10 teams as a whole are now 41-7 (85.4%) SU on the season, which is by far the best home winning percentage of any conference. Minnesota definitely fits the mold. The Gophers are 10-2 at home this season compared to 1-5 on the road. Minnesota is 4-0 at home in Big Ten play with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State. They are 0-3 on the road with a 20-point loss at Iowa, 5-point loss at Purdue and a 16-point loss at Michigan State.
Rutgers defense should be the key factor here. Scarlet Knights are No. 1 in Big 10 play in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. Gophers offense is averaging 57.3 ppg in regulation in Big Ten road games compared to 77.8 ppg at home in conference action. Take Rutgers!
|01-18-20||Oakland +1.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee||68-73||Loss||-109||19 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oakland +1½ -109
I really like the value here with the Bears at basically a pick'em on the road against the Panthers. Both of these teams come in at 3-3 in Horizon play, but Oakland is the better team. Bears rank 205 in KenPom, compared to Milwaukee at 247th. While the Panthers are at home, they have lost 3 times on their home floor, including an ugly loss at home to Detroit last time out, where they let a 4-15 team with one of the worst offenses in the Horizon to put up 90 points.
Defense has really been a problem for Milwaukee of late, as they have allowed 74 or more 8 of their last 9 games. The only exception coming against Illinois-Chicago, who has the worst offense in the Horizon.
Oakland won 89-73 in the most recent meeting between these two at Milwaukee in February of last year. That win and cover by the Bears improved the road team to a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Also Panthers are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a home favorite, while the Bears are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 on the road. Take Oakland!
|01-18-20||New Mexico v. UNLV -4.5||Top||78-99||Win||100||19 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on UNLV -4½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Rebels as a small home favorite against the Lobos. New Mexico comes in at 15-4, which is quite a bit better record than UNLV, who is just 10-9. Thing is the Rebels have really turned a corner of late. They 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and have started out 5-1 in MWC play.
New Mexico is 4-2 in league play, but have really played a soft conference schedule to this point. They also just got blitzed 105-72 at Colorado State a few days ago. UNLV is simply playing the better basketball of the two in conference play. Rebels have the No. 3 best offense in the MWC from an efficiency standpoint and New Mexico is No. 5. On defense UNLV is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in effective field goal defense. Lobos are No. 8 and No. 10 in those two departments.
Another thing is the Lobos are an easy fade under Paul Weir when playing on the road. They are just 8-21 (28%) ATS under Weir away from home, including a 4-13 ATS mark the last two seasons. Rebels are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and have covered 7 of their last 10 at home when laying points. Take UNLV.
|01-18-20||Kentucky v. Arkansas -1.5||73-66||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas -1½ -109
The Razorbacks are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Wildcats. All you have to really look at here is the fact that you have an unranked Arkansas team laying points against a Kentucky team that is ranked No. 10 in the country. Not to mention you know the public will be enticed to bet the Wildcats here off a loss.
While Kentucky had done a decent job of protecting the ball in non-conference, they currently have the 8th worst turnover rate in the SEC and just coughed it up 15 times in their last game at South Carolina, which they lost 78-81. Arkansas knows a thing or two about forcing turnovers, as they are No. 2 in the SEC in defensive turnover rate and 42nd overall.
Arkansas has yet to lose on their home floor this season, going a perfect 10-0. In fact, Razorbacks are dangerously close to being undefeated, as their two losses have been an OT setback against Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss at LSU.
Also while Kentucky is No. 10 in the polls, they rank 24th in KenPom and the Razorbacks are No. 25. This line is not as far off as you might think. Take Arkansas!
|01-18-20||St. Mary's v. Pepperdine UNDER 147||78-69||Push||0||8 h 57 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's/Pepperdine under 147 -115
I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Saturday's West Coast matchup that has St. Mary's visiting Pepperdine. While the Gaels are averaging 80.2 ppg and giving up 79.0 ppg in league play, those numbers are skewed quite a bit from a 4-OT game at Pacific that ended up seeing 206 combined points after the two had only combined for 128 in regulation (64-64).
The only game they have really played that was a shootout was against BYU, who has an even better offense than the Gaels. Pepperdine is just middle of the pack offensively, but are in the Top 5 defensively and are only allowing teams to shoot 44% from the field in WCC play.
It's also worth noting St Mary's is coming off an upset loss at home to Santa Clara, as the UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Gaels last 9 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!
|01-18-20||Colorado State v. Air Force UNDER 150.5||78-65||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Colorado State/Air Force under 150½ -115
I just think there's too much value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Mountain West clash between Colorado State and Air Force. I just think we are seeing an inflated number with the Rams off a game at home against New Mexico, where they put up 105 points.
Thing is Colorado State had a near perfect night from the floor, as they shot 59% from the field going a ridiculous 19 of 28 from 3-point range. Note we saw them have similar strong showing at home against Doane, where they put up 87 on 54% and the next time out managed just 61 points on 38% shooting at Nevada.
Air Force is not an easy place to play and if they don't light it up it's going to be really hard for these two to eclipse the high mark set for this game. UNDER is 5-1 in the Falcons last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 19-8 in the Rams last 27 on the road after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!
|01-18-20||Kansas v. Texas +8||66-57||Loss||-109||15 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas +8 -109
I really like the value here with the Longhorns as a near double-digit dog at home against the Jayhawks. I get KU is one of the top teams in the country and fresh off a 14-point win at Oklahoma, but it's asking a lot for them to blowout a team like the Longhorns, who are such a tough team to beat at home.
Texas is 8-1 at home this season and are really locking down on defense at home, where they are giving up just 59.9 ppg and holding teams to 40% from the field and 31% from deep. I think that defense will be enough to keep them in this game. Keep in mind the Jayhawks aren't exactly going off on the offensive end, as they are averaging just 66.4 ppg over their last 5.
Also fading KU on the road in Saturday games has been a very profitable move, as they are just 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons in this spot. Longhorns are also a great team to back as a home dog, cashing 28 of the last 41 tickets in this spot. Take Texas!
|01-18-20||William & Mary -3 v. Drexel||57-84||Loss||-105||14 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on William & Mary -3 -105
The Tribe are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Dragons. William & Mary is absolutely rolling into this matchup. The Tribe have won 6 straight with 4 of the 6 wins coming on the road. They have also covered each of their last 5, including a big 77-68 road win at Delaware as a 1.5-point dog last time out.
I just don't think Drexel will have an answer for Nathan Knight, who is one of the better players you probably haven't heard of. Knight is averaging 20.3 ppg and 10.6 rpg and can not only get easy baskets inside, but can knock down the 3-point shot.
As for the Dragons offense, they rank 8th in the CAA in offensive efficiency and 9th in effective field goal percentage (William & Mary is No. 1 in both). I just don't see Drexel being able to keep pace with the Tribe in this one. Take William & Mary!
|01-18-20||Butler -3.5 v. DePaul||66-79||Loss||-108||12 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Butler -3½ -108
The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a short road favorite against the Blue Demons. There were a ton of people singing the praises of DePaul during their 12-1 start to the season, which included wins over the likes of Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech.
Blue Demons simply haven't been able to carry over that success into Big East play, as they have started out 0-4, most recently suffering a crushing OT loss at Villanova on Tuesday. DePaul has already lost twice at home and is facing a Butler team who is 6-1 on the road with their only road loss being a mere 1-point setback at current No. 2 ranked Baylor.
Another key factor here is we know we are going to get a huge effort from the Bulldogs coming off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall. Butler is 5-0 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover and are 6-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Butler!
|01-18-20||Baylor v. Oklahoma State +7.5||75-68||Win||100||13 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Oklahoma State +7½ -105
I really like the value here with the Cowboys as a big home dog against the Bears. We are seeing a huge overreaction to the line in this game due to the fact that Baylor is both 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in Big 12 play, while Oklahoma State is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS to open up conference play.
No question the Bears are the better team, but this just feels like a spot they will struggle to play in. Baylor just played 4 really good teams in a row in Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State and could find it hard to get up on the road against a team they know they are better than.
As for Oklahoma State, you can bank on a max effort here at home from the Cowboys. Not only will there be plenty of motivation playing the No. 2 team in the country, but this team desperately wants to get that first conference win.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a home win and have won more than 80% of their games are just 27-62 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Cowboys have also covered 7 of their last 9 games when listed as a dog and the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take Oklahoma State!
|01-17-20||Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 148||Top||83-90||Loss||-109||21 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Michigan/Iowa under 148 -109
It will be extremely difficult for many to take the UNDER in this one, as these two teams combined for 194 points in a meeting at Michigan back in early December. However, I think there's a ton of value with the UNDER at the current price.
What you got to keep in mind is that these two teams are going to have a much better idea of how to stop the other team in the rematch and both teams have to be a bit worn down given the gauntlet of Big Ten play.
One thing that really stands out to me is how much Michigan's offense has struggled in true road games this season. THey have played 4 games on an opponents court and in this 4 games have scored 43, 62, 69 and 67 points. Not to mention
Iowa is a much better defensive team at home, Hawkeyes are allowing 63.2 ppg at home. Hawks have played just two home games in Big Ten PLay and in those games have held Minnesota to 52 points and Maryland to 49. Their game against the Gophers ended with just 124 points with a total of 147 and against the Terps the combined for just 116 with a total of 174. Take the UNDER!
|01-17-20||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -8||55-67||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -8 -109
I got no problem laying the big number with Sparty at home against Wisconsin. This is a massive play on spot for Michigan State, who is coming off their worst showing of the season in Sunday's 42-71 loss at Purdue. Not to make excuses, but that's a Boilermakers team that is much better than their 10-7 record. Purdue has played the 14th toughest schedule in the country and actually rank No. 17 per KenPom.
Not to take anything away from a good Wisconsin team, but they are just in the wrong place at the wrong time against a superior opponent. Not to mention the struggles the Badgers have had against the Spartans. Michigan State has won each of the last 7 meetings overall and have won each of their last 5 home games against Wisconsin by double-digits.
Laying a big number with the Spartans at home is also not a bad thing. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS last 9 times they have been a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. As for Wisconsin and their recent strong play, now is the time to jump ship. Badgers are just 3-11 ATS last 3 seasons when they come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games. Take Michigan State!
|01-17-20||Rider -4.5 v. Niagara||68-70||Loss||-109||19 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider -4½ -109
The Broncs are definitely worth a look here as a short road favorite against the Purple Eagles. Niagara is just 4-11 on the season and have just one win over a team ranked inside the Top 240 and that was a OT win against Colgate back in early December.
I just don't think they have the ability to keep this close even at home. Rider is arguably the best team in the MAAC, despite their mere 3-2 start in league play. They are the only team in the conference ranked (No. 184) inside the Top 200 of KenPom.
Big thing here is how these two teams matchup. Broncs are going to have a huge size advantage in this one, as Niagara is the smallest team in the country. They rank 353 out of 353 in average height at 74.5". This should allow for a lot of easy looks for a Rider team ranks tops in the league in offensive efficiency. It should also result in a huge edge in both rebounds and free throws.
Also Niagara is in a big fade spot off a 70-69 upset win at Iona, where they shot lights out from deep (15 of 26). Purple Eagles are 7-18 ATS last 25 after a game where they shot 50% or better from deep and 0-7 ATS last 7 off a road win by 3 or less. Take Rider!
|01-16-20||CS-Northridge +5 v. Cal-Riverside||80-68||Win||100||22 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on CS-Northridge +5 -110
I really like the value here with the Matadors as a decently priced road dog against UC-Riverside. I think a big part of this value stems from how bad CS-Northridge looked in their last game, which saw them get rolled 74-56 as a 6-point favorite at Cal Poly.
That was just a bad night all around. Matadors had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, going 19 of 53 (35.8%) from the field. That's just a true indicator of this team, which had shot 54% or better in each of their previous 3 games.
Matadors are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a loss, 5-1 ATS last 6 as a road dog and 8-3 ATS last 11 overall. Road team has also covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings in the series with the underdog cashing each of the last 4 matchups. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-16-20||Pacific -4 v. Portland||65-55||Win||100||14 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pacific -4 -109
I got no problem laying the short number on the road with Pacific as they take on Portland in Thursday's late night action. The Tigers are coming off a 75-79 loss at home to San Francisco. A game
Head coach Damon Stoudamire had this to say after the loss. “We can’t learn a lesson. To me, they thoroughly dominated us for 40 minutes. We got outplayed, we got outcoached. There is no lesson to learn. I think that the biggest thing is we got to compete harder.” I mean if they apparently play that bad and only lose by 4 that's saying something.
I like the Tigers to bounce back in a big way here against the Pilots. Portland has been the worst defensive team in the WCC to start the year ranking dead last in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Pacific is 4th in defensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage. That defensive edge will be the difference here. Take Pacific!
|01-16-20||Eastern Kentucky +20.5 v. Belmont||Top||56-87||Loss||-110||21 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Kentucky +20½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Colonels as a massive road dog against the Bruins. I get there's a big difference in the overall record of these two teams, but simply put Eastern Kentucky has been a different team in conference play. The Colonels are sitting at 3-1 and have really got things figured out on offense of late. They are averaging 75.0 ppg in league play.
Belmont has won 3 straight after opening up conference play with a loss at home to SIU Edwardsville as a 23-point favorite. They do have a couple of blowout wins by 20+ points against E Illinois and SE Missouri State, but those two teams are also a combined 0-8 in league play.
Eastern Kentucky is one of the better defensive teams in the conference, like to slow things down and limit possessions and are great at taking care of the basketball. All things that should help them easily keep this within the number. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|01-16-20||North Texas v. Southern Miss UNDER 133||72-52||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on North Texas/Southern Miss under 133 -110
I really like the value with the UNDER in this one. North Texas has the best offense in C-USA and will be facing a Southern Miss defense that ranks at the bottom of the conference, giving up 78.5 ppg in league play. I just think that has the total inflated to where there's value on the UNDER.
Big thing to note is that the Mean Green are not nearly as potent on the road. North Texas is averaging 70.6 ppg on 47.4% shooting overall, but just 61.4 ppg and 42.7% on the road. Southern Miss is also an awful offensive team, scoring just 58.2 ppg in conference play and will be facing a Mean Green defense that has held 3 of their 4 conference opponents to fewer than 65 points.
UNDER is 25-12 in North Texas' last 37 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 10-2 in their last 12 on the road after going OVER the total in their previous game. Take the UNDER!
|01-16-20||Texas State -4.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe||64-63||Loss||-109||12 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -4½ -109
The Bobcats are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Warhawks. While Texas State is just 3-4 in Sun Belt play, they are actually the No. 2 ranked team in the Conference per KenPom behind only Georgia State. Of their 4 conference losses, 3 have come on the road against the 3 teams tied on top the standings in Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Little Rock.
ULM on the other hand is tied for the worst mark in the conference at 2-5 and more than anything this is just not a good matchup for the Warhawks. ULM wants to get the majority of their offense inside, and Texas State is really tough to score on inside.
Two other advantages that figure to go a long way in favor of the Bobcats is free throw shooting and turnovers. Texas State gets to the foul line 23 times a game and is shooting 75% from the charity line. UML only gets to the line 18 times and is shooting 67.8%. Warhawks also have the 3rd worst turnover rate in the SB and Bobcats are second best in forcing turnovers. Take Texas State!
|01-16-20||Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 117.5||48-64||Loss||-109||11 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Southern Illinois/Loyola-Chicago over 117½ -109
There's no denying that these are two of the better defensive teams in the Missouri Valley, but I just think we are seeing a ridiculously low total due to the fact that the UNDER has been so good for both teams of late. UNDER has cashed in 7 straight for Southern Illinois and 5 straight for the Ramblers.
Loyola-Chicago is No. 3 in the MVC in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, so it's not like they can't score. Ramblers are scoring almost 75 ppg at home and that's exactly how many they had last year when they hosted the Salukis, which saw a combined score of 125.
It's also worth noting that Loyola is fresh off a 78-44 blowout win over Evansville at home as a 13.5-point favorite, as the OVER is a dominant 13-3 in their last 16 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Southern Illinois' last 7 road games when facing a team that is shooting 48% or better from the field. Take the OVER 117.5!
|01-16-20||Texas-Arlington v. UL - Lafayette OVER 142.5||81-65||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Texas-Arlington/UL - Lafayette over 142½ -110
Easy play for me on the OVER in Thursday's Sun Belt showdown between UT-Arlington and UL-Lafayette. I think there's some hidden value here due to the fact that Ragin' Cajuns are coming off two dreadful offensive showings at Georgia State and Georgia Southern, where they scored just 52 and 51 points respectively.
Thing is, Lafayette is a different offensive team on the road than they are at home and those are two of the top defenses in the Sun Belt. In their previous two games they put up 81 at App State and 79 at home against Troy. Arlington is not a great defensive team and just gave up 82 at home to Coastal Carolina.
The other big key here is tempo. The Mavericks like to speed up the game and are playing at the 3rd fastest tempo in the Sun Belt. I think Lafayette also likes to play fast and will be up for a faster tempo after their last two games.
OVER is also 12-1 in Arlington's last 13 games as a road favorite and 15-4 in Lafayette's last 19 at home against poor shooting teams 15+ games into the season. Take the OVER!
|01-16-20||Charlotte v. Marshall OVER 132||77-75||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Charlotte/Marshall over 132 -117
I really like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's C-USA matchup that has Marshall hosting Charlotte. This is the lowest total we have seen in a game involving the Herd this season and a big reason for that is because of their recent struggles offensively and the fact that Charlotte plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.
Thing is, Marshall has had a way of making the 49ers play up to their tempo in recent meetings. Last year the two played to a combined 169 points at Charlotte. You have to go back to their first meeting in 2015 to find the last time these two didn't combine for at least 150 points. OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and the averaged combined score in these 11 matchups is 161.5.
Also in regards to the Herds' poor shooting of late, with how many outside shots they take they are going to have games where they don't connect. Good chance they get going at home, where they are shooting 47% from the field on the season. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Stanford v. UCLA +2.5||74-59||Loss||-110||22 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on UCLA +2½ -110
Most will look to back Stanford here as a small road favorite at UCLA, as the Cardinal come in having won 7 of 8 and covered 3 straight, while UCLA has lost 5 of 6 and have just one cover in their last 7 games. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this number.
Big thing to keep in mind with Stanford and their impressive 14-2 start to the season is 12 of their 16 games have come on their home floor and their only true road game to this point was a matchup at San Jose State, who is ranked 285th in KenPom. Even with games against Butler and Kansas, the Cardinal's non-conference strength of schedule was a mere 300th in the nation.
I get UCLA has been a big disappointment in the first season under Mick Cronin, but I'm confident we get a big effort here from the Bruins at home off that ugly home loss to USC. Note that the Bruins are 5-2 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home, while Stanford is 0-6 ATS last 6 off a home win by 10 or more (beat Washington St 88-62) and 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road after playing 3 straight at home. Take UCLA!
|01-15-20||Boise State v. Air Force||78-85||Loss||-109||21 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Boise State PK -109
I really like the value here with Boise State at basically a pick'em on the road against the Falcons. The Broncos are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after an ugly 18-point loss at San Diego State last time out. Boise State has been rock-solid coming off a loss of late, covering each of their last 5 games in this spot.
Air Force has a solid home court edge, but I just don't think it will be enough for them to get a win. This is just not a good matchup for the Falcons. Air Force is a very small team and because of that have no protected the rim well. In fact, they are 334th out of 353 teams in opponents finish rate at the rim. Boise State is 12th nationally in finishing at the rim, which means the Broncos should have a field day inside.
Bronces are also 20-9 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Boise State!
|01-15-20||Iowa State +10.5 v. Baylor||Top||55-68||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +10½ -110
I love the value here with the Cyclones as a double-digit road dog against the Bears. Baylor is getting praise everywhere the look and after back-to-back road wins last week at Texas Tech and Kansas, they are now the No. 2 ranked team in the country.
No question the Bears are legit, but this just feels like the perfect spot to sell high, as they are just a few days removed from that impressive upset win at Kansas. Note they also had a big game against rival Texas before defeating the Red Raiders, so it was really a 3-game stretch where they laid it all on the line.
Iowa State is off an impressive 81-68 win over Oklahoma that was much more lopsided than the final score would indicate. Cyclones are clearly a step below the top tier teams in the conference, but are far from a pushover. Their 8-7 record is also a bit misleading given the difficult schedule they have faced.
ISU has also been a solid bet in this spot, covering 5 of their last 6 as a road dog. As for the Bears, they are just 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State!
|01-14-20||Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Wake Forest||80-70||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Virginia Tech -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Hokies as a small road favorite against the Demon Deacons. Some might be willing to give Wake Forest a pass in their last two games, which saw them lose by 10 at home to FSU and by 31 at Duke, as those are not teams they are expected to beat.
Thing is the Demon Deacons are down one of their best players in Chaundee Brown and they just aren't the same team when he's not on the floor. I just think it's asking a bit much for Wake to win this game at home against a red-hot Hokies team. Virginia Tech is off a 72-58 win at home over NC State and are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games overall.
Hokies defense has been great of late and when they are clicking on that side it's a good idea to jump on board. Va Tech is 11-3 ATS last 14 after giving up 65 or fewer in 3 straight games. Wake is also just 17-31 ATS last 48 as an underdog and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Virginia Tech!
|01-14-20||Akron v. Northern Illinois +3||Top||72-49||Loss||-109||19 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois +3 -109
I love the value here with Northern Illinois as a home dog against the Zips. Akron comes in with an impressive 13-3 record, are riding a 4-game win streak and sitting at 3-0 in MAC play. Most won't hesitate laying the short number here with the Zips, but I think they lose outright to the Huskies.
Northern Illinois is a 1-point loss at Central Michigan away from being 3-0 themselves in MAC action. Zips are just 2-5 ATS last 7 times they have been listed as a road favorite and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series.
Huskies also just seem to play their best against the best, especially later on in the season. In fact, they are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games 15+ games into the season when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Northern Illinois!
|01-14-20||Kent State v. Miami-OH +4.5||74-77||Win||100||18 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Miami-OH +4½ -105
The Redhawks are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Flashes. Good spot here to back Miami as we can bank on a max effort here after a rough 0-3 start to MAC play. Thing to note is two of those were on the road against quality teams in Bowling Green and Central Michigan the other was a home game against a good Buffalo squad.
Not to say Kent State isn't another quality opponent, but it's never easy playing on the road in conference play on short rest. Golden Flashes will have had just 2 days off for this one. I also look for Miami to get their offense going. Redhawks are scoring 80.1 ppg and Kent State is giving up 74.9 ppg on the road. On the flip side, Flashes only score 72.6 ppg on the road and Miami allows just 66.1 ppg at home.
Kent State is just 3-11 ATS last 14 times they have played on the road after a game as a home favorite and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 or more games in a row. Take Miami!
|01-14-20||Louisville -4.5 v. Pittsburgh||73-68||Win||100||18 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisville -4½ -109
I really like the value here with Louisville laying what I think is a short number on the road against the Panthers. These two teams played once already and the Cardinals made easy work of Pitt at home in a 64-46 win.
I don't think playing at home is going to be enough for Pitt to overcome the difficulties they had scoring against this Louisville defense. Cardinals are also on a bit of a roll, as they have won two straight after a couple of losses to Kentucky and FSU.
Panthers are simply getting a little too much love from the books because of their 11-5 record, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Pitt is also just 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a dog and 3-13-1 ATS last 17 off a loss. Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 games as a favorite and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Take Louisville!
|01-14-20||Ball State -3.5 v. Eastern Michigan||69-52||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State -3½ -109
I really like the Cardinals here to cover as a small road favorite against the Eagles. This is simply an ideal matchup for Ball State and their unselfish offense that has knockdown shooters all over the floor. Cardinals should get plenty of open looks from deep against Eastern Michigan's zone defense, which comes in the 24th most 3-pointers in the country.
I just don't think the Eagles can keep pace with all that shooting, as they just aren't a very good offensive team. Eastern Michigan is only averaging 60.3 ppg in conference play and shooting just 38% from the field in those 3 contests. Eagles are also just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a dog. Take Ball State!
|01-13-20||Portland State v. Montana -6.5||70-85||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Montana -6½ -109
Easy play here on the Grizzlies to cover at home against the Vikings. Montana is in the midst of their best stretch of basketball. The Grizzlies have won 4 of 5 and just put it on a good Eastern Washington team 90-63 as a 5.5-point dog last time out. Montana's defense held Eastern Washington 23 points under their season average and are giving up just 63.4 ppg in conference play.
Portland State is scoring 77.5 ppg, but it's come against teams who on average are allowing 73.5 ppg, so definitely expect them to struggle to get anywhere close to that. Defensively they are giving up 76.5 ppg on the road and could really struggle to bring it on that side of the ball.
Vikings will be playing their 4th straight road games and this one comes on just one day of rest off a grueling 77-76 win against Montana State. Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS last 15 at home after 2 straight on the road and are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Montana!
|01-12-20||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -2.5||58-66||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Miami-FL -2½ -110
Really like the value here with the Hurricanes laying a small number at home against the Panthers. Perfect spot to buy low on Miami off back-to-back losses. While they were completely outclassed in a 33-point home loss to Duke, they were down just 5 with 5 minutes to play before losing 58-74 at Louisville last time out.
Either way this is the ideal bounce back spot and a great price against a Pitt team that is getting too much love for a road win against a bad UNC team. Prior to that upset of the Tar Heels, the Panthers had gone just 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games.
One thing Pitt really thrives on is forcing turnovers and that's a problem here, as Miami simply doesn't turn it over. Hurricanes have the 12th best turnover rate in the country. Last time out against Louisville they only turned it over 5 times.
Panthers are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 road games after playing two straight conference games, 2-9-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-14-1 ATS last 18 as a dog. Take Miami!
|01-11-20||Weber State +5.5 v. CS Sacramento||57-71||Loss||-110||23 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ODDSMAKER ERROR on Weber State +5½ -110
I like the value here with the Wildcats catching a decent number on the road against CS-Sacramento. I just think we are getting a great price on Weber State due to the fact that they have gone just 1-4 in their last 5 games, as this is a much more evenly matched game than the number suggest.
Sacramento State comes in at 9-4, but their only win against a team in the top 200 of the KenPom rankings is a mere 5-point win over No. 170 Pepperdine. Weber State has only played 3 teams outside the Top 200.
The other big thing is the Hornets just can't be trusted laying points with how bad they are on the offensive side of the ball. CS-Sacramento is averaging a mere 61.8 ppg which is really bad when you consider how easy the schedule has been.
Wildcats are 23-10 ATS last 33 after dropping 4 of their last 5, while the Hornets are 0-6 ATS last 6 at home after winning 2 of their last 3. Road team has also only failed to cover 4 times in the last 14 meetings between these two. Take Weber State!
|01-11-20||CS-Northridge -5.5 v. Cal Poly||56-74||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on CS-Northridge -5½ -110
Easy play here on CS-Northridge laying a short number on the road against Cal Poly. While the Matadors are just 6-11 overall, they come in having won 3 straight as the schedule has finally started to get easier (8 of their 11 losses have come against teams ranked 170 or better in KenPom. Cal Poly is 337th.
The Mustangs are 3-12 overall with two of their wins coming against non division 1 teams and the other a mere 4-point win over Siena. On top of all that, CS-Northridge is 13-4 ATS last 17 conference games and the Matadors have owned Cal Poly in recent meetings, covering 9 of the last 11 meetings. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-11-20||Boise State +11.5 v. San Diego State||65-83||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Boise State +11½ -110
I like the value here with the Broncos as a double-digit road dog against the Aztecs. San Diego State comes in at 16-0 and there's no doubt in my mind the number on the Aztecs has been inflated quite a bit here because of their strong start.
I'm not saying they won't win at home, but I think Boise State can definitely make a game of this. The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 and are 7-2 ATS last 9 times vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS last 8 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Aztecs are just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home as a favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Boise State!
|01-11-20||Florida -1.5 v. Missouri||75-91||Loss||-110||23 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Florida -1½ -110
The Gators are worth a look at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. Florida has been impressive to start out SEC play, rallying from 20 down to stun Alabama in OT in their conference opener and then going on the road and whooping South Carolina 81-68 as a mere 4.5-point favorite.
Missouri has started out 0-2 and while one of those is an excusable loss at Kentucky, the other was a home setback against a struggling Tennessee team that had lost 4 of 5. Also the Tigers are 6-2 at home, but all 6 wins have come against teams ranked 119th or worse in KenPom. Florida is No. 23.
Florida's offense finally seems to be rounding into form and I just think it will be too much for a Missouri offense that is only averaging 66.7 ppg and a mere 59.0 ppg in SEC play. As for the Tigers defense, it's not been nearly as good of late.
Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road favorite. Tigers are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a win percent of 60% or better and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida!
|01-11-20||Marshall +1.5 v. UAB||50-61||Loss||-115||17 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Marshall +1½ -115
Easy play here on the Thundering Herd at basically a pick'em at UAB. Marshall has really been a different team over the last month. They are 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. They did fail to cover last time out at Middle Tennessee, but that was an unfortunate non-cover as they had a 9-point lead with less than a minute to play and ended up winning by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite.
Marshall should be able to get a lot of easy baskets in this one. UAB is one of the worst teams in the country in turnover rate ranking 336th and the Herd are 30th nationally in steal rate.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 at least 15 games into the season who are a good offensive team (74-78 ppg) and facing a bad offensive team (63-67 ppg) are a dominant 42-16 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marshall!
|01-11-20||Old Dominion +3.5 v. Charlotte||Top||47-53||Loss||-110||17 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Monarchas as a small road dog against the 49ers. Both of these teams like to play slow and really grind it out defensively. Thing is Old Dominion has thrived against these kind of opponents, going a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a strong defensive team that is allowing 64 or fewer points/game.
This is also a great spot to fade Charlotte. The 49ers have won 5 of 6 and are off a win over Middle Tennessee where they had a huge lead at the half. Charlotte is 8-20 ATS last 28 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and are 8-28 ATS last 36 after a game where they led by 15 or more at the half.
The Monarchs have also owned this series. They have swept the two-game season series each of the last 2 years and 3 of the 4 wins have come by double-digits. No way should they be a dog here. Take Old Dominion!
|01-11-20||Texas A&M +6 v. Vanderbilt||69-50||Win||100||18 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas A&M +6 -115
I like the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Commodores. Texas A&M got off to a really tough start to the season, as they opened up just 3-5. Things have got much better of late, as they are 4-1 SU and have started out 2-0 ATS in SEC play.
I like this matchup for Texas A&M, as Vanderbilt is a team that lives on 3-pointers and free throws. That's going to be a big problem for the Commodores, as the Aggies are holding opponents to just 28.9% shooting from deep and give up only 13 free throw attempts per/game (16th best defensive free throw rate).
Just to give ya a comparison, Vanderbilt's opponents are averaging 21 free throw attempts. Texas A&M averages 20 attempts, so the Aggies should be able to keep this close and even win outright simply from the edge at the charity line.
Commodores are also 1-8 ATS last 9 conference home games and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover. Take Texas A&M!
|01-10-20||Maryland v. Iowa +1.5||Top||49-67||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa +1½ -103
I love the value here with Iowa as a home dog against the Terps. I just feel we are getting an exceptional price on the Hawkeyes due to the fact that they come in off an upset loss at Nebraska. A poor game against the Cornhuskers was to be expected off a devastating loss to Penn State just a few days earlier.
Iowa is also not the same team on the road as they are at home, where they are 6-1 this season. This definitely feels like a must win for the Hawkeyes as they are sitting at 1-3 in Big Ten play. Big thing to note is only one of their first 4 conference games have come at home and that was a 72-52 blowout win over a good Minnesota team.
Maryland 10-0 at home, but just 3-2 on the road and just 1-2 in true road games. Terps have also failed to cover all 3 of their true road games. Maryland is also in a massive letdown spot off a huge home win over then No. 11 Ohio State, which they won 67-55.
Terps are just 1-8 ATS last 9 road games off a home win by 10 or more. Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 5 off a loss and 5-0 ATS last 5 at home. Take Iowa!
|01-09-20||BYU +4 v. St. Mary's||Top||84-87||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on BYU +4 -110
I love the value here with BYU as a small road dog against the Gaels. While the Cougars have had all kinds of problems in recent trips to St. Mary's, this is the best BYU team in years. The Cougars come in having won 6 straight with the most recent being a 25-point beatdown at home against Loyola-Marymount.
While BYU was coasting in their last game, St Mary's found themselves in an exhausting 4 overtime game at Pacific, which they wound up losing 99-107. Four different players played 37 or more minutes, with both Ford and Kuhse hitting the 50-point mark. Ford, teams leading scorer, logging 58 out of possible 60 minutes of game time.
I just don't think 4 days will be enough for them to come out with the kind of energy needed against a really good Cougars team. Take BYU!
|01-09-20||Arizona v. Oregon -3||73-74||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Oregon -3 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks laying a short number at home against the Wildcats in Thursday's huge Pac-12 showdown. Both teams come in ranked in the Top 25 and have just 3 losses on their resume. However, Oregon has played the much tougher schedule, has the more impressive wins and one of the top home court advantages in the country.
Arizona started out the season 9-0, but only one of those wins was against a team ranked in the Top 75 and that was a home victory against Illinois way back in early November. Since that perfect 9-0 start the Wildcats are just 2-3. Books have also been giving Arizona way too much love, as they are just 2-6 ATS last 8.
Oregon on the other hand is 11-4 ATS on the season and have won all 8 of their home games this season. Another factor is that Arizona has only played one true road game all season and that was back on Dec. 7th. I just think this is going to be too tough a spot for the Wildcats to keep it close. Take Oregon!
|01-08-20||UC-Santa Barbara -8 v. Cal Poly||63-45||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Santa Barbara -8 -109
UC-Santa Barbara is worth a look here laying single-digits on the road against Cal Poly. These two teams aren't even close in terms of talent. The Gauchos are ranked 145th in KenPom, while the Mustangs are way back 331st.
All 3 of Cal Poly's wins this season have come at home, but two of those are against non-Div 1 schools. They lost to Fresno State by a score of 62-37 (Bulldogs No. 133) and to CS-Bakersfield by a score of 72-50 (No. 236).
On top of that, UC-Santa Barbara has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in the series (covering 9 of the 12) and their average margin of victory is 11 ppg. The Mustangs are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a home win and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 4 or more games in a row. Take UC-Santa Barbara!
|01-08-20||Long Beach State +6.5 v. CS-Northridge||77-95||Loss||-109||20 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Long Beach State +6½ -109
I really like the value here with the 49ers as a decently priced road dog against the Matadors. These two teams come in with identical records at 5-11, but note that Long Beach State has a win over Providence, while CS-Northridge's best win is against Fresno State.
This isn't just a game the 49ers can cover, but they can win here outright. Something they have done in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Long Beach State has also gone 4-0-1 ATS last 5 times they have faced a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
They are also 55-34 ATS last 89 on the road vs teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better and 24-10 in their last 34 vs teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards a game. Take Long Beach State!
|01-08-20||Arkansas v. LSU -5||77-79||Loss||-109||21 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on LSU -5 -109
LSU is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. Arkansas comes with an impressive 12-1 record, but a lot of that is a favorable schedule. Only two of those wins have come against a team ranked in the Top 100 of the KenPom rankings.
They have repeatedly been overvalued because of their strong record, as they come in a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Also, they come in allowing just 59.8 ppg, but that number sky rockets to 69.7 ppg on the road and they will be facing a LSU team that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, scoring 81 ppg on 50% shooting. Not to mention the Tigers are only giving up 62 ppg and 38% shooting at home and Arkansas is only hitting 40% from the field away from home.
Razorbacks are 11-34 ATS last 45 road games vs a team that is shooting 48% or better from the field and 10-22 ATS in their last 32 overall vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take LSU!
|01-08-20||Vanderbilt +16 v. Auburn||Top||79-83||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Weeknight PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +16 -109
I love the value here with the Commodores catching a huge number on the road against the Tigers. No question Auburn is the better team, but they are simply way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 record.
It's not always easy getting up for a conference game against a bottom feeder like Vandy and I think that will be the case here, as the Tigers are off a huge road win against Mississippi State in their SEC opener and have a big home game on deck against Georgia.
Vandy doesn't get a ton of love with a mere 8-5 record, but note that all 5 of their losses have come against teams ranked in the Top 110 of the country and all 5 have come by 9 or fewer. That includes two overtime losses to Richmond and SMU.
Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite with the only cover coming against Lipscomb, who is ranked 225th. Take Vanderbilt!
|01-08-20||George Washington +11.5 v. St. Louis||58-63||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on George Washington +11½ -109
I really like the value here with the Colonials as a double-digit dog against the Billikens. St Louis just hasn't been the same team since they lost sharpshooter Gibson Jimmerson. They are 4-1 without him, but two of those wins have come by a mere 3-points and the other was a 10-point win against Bethune-Cookman.
Thing is they are still getting a ton of love from the books because they are 12-3 on the season. Also, George Washington has gone just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last 4, but did only lost by 5 to St Bonaventure in their last game and did so shooting just 9 of 27 from deep.
Even when they are at full strength St Louis is not a team to back as a big favorite. Over the last 2 seasons the Billikens are a mere 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more. They are also 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home. Colonials are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take George Washington!
|01-08-20||St Bonaventure +3 v. George Mason||61-49||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on St Bonaventure +3 -110
Easy play here on the Bonnies getting points at George Mason. St Bonaventure got off to a shaky start this season, going just 1-4 in their first 5 games, but have gone 8-1 in their last 9 with the only loss coming on the road against a good Buffalo team by just 5.
George Mason comes in with an impressive 11-3 record, but they are not as good as that mark would lead you to believe. The Patriots played a super easy non-conference schedule. Their only win against a team in the Top 150 was a 4-point victory against New Mexico State. The other two games against top teams resulted in a 23-point loss to Maryland and a 34-point loss to TCU.
George Mason opened up conference play against VCU this past weekend and lost 72-59 at home to VCU in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this one. Take St. Bonaventure!
|01-07-20||Iowa v. Nebraska +8||Top||70-76||Win||100||23 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +8 -110
I love the value here with the Cornhuskers as a near double-digit home dog against the Hawkeyes. This might seem like a fair price given how good Iowa has looked early on and the fact that Nebraska just got smoked by 17 at home as a 4.5-point dog to Rutgers, but this is all about the spot.
These two schools don't really like each other and I'm confident we get a max effort here from the Cornhuskers at home. As for Iowa, they could be in for a bit of a letdown in this one. Hawkeyes let a late lead slip away in an emotional and heated 86-89 loss to Penn State on Saturday.
Starting guard CJ Fredrick went down with an ankle injury in the 1st half and wasn't able to return and while listed as questionable probably doesn't play. That makes an already weak bench that much weaker and let's not forget they are playing on just 2 days rest and in their first true road game since going to ISU back on Dec. 12th.
Hawks are just 6-18 ATS last 24 on the road and Nebraska has faired well at home against high-scoring teams like Iowa, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 at home vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take Nebraska!
|01-07-20||Tennessee +6 v. Missouri||69-59||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +6 -110
The Volunteers are worth a look here as a dog against the Tigers. It's been rough sledding for Tennessee since losing starting point guard Lamonte Turner. Vols have lost 4 of 5, but it has come against some stiff competition (Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin and LSU).
I just think it led to an inflated line on Missouri, who just can't be trusted to lay this kind of number with how they struggle to score and their methodical pace. Tigers are 120th in offensive AdjO and 290th in tempo.
Not to mention this is a bit of a flat spot for Missouri after laying it all on the line in their last game against Kentucky, who everyone gives their best shot. Vols have gone an impressive 10-3 ATS last 13 road games after playing 3 or more games in a row at home. Take Tennessee!
|01-07-20||Providence +8 v. Marquette||81-80||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +8 -109
I like the value here with the Friars as a near double-digit dog against the Golden Eagles. Even though Providence comes in off 3 straight impressive wins over Texas, Georgetown and at DePaul, I still think they are a bit undervalued due to their poor 6-6 start to the season.
We are also seeing Marquette a bit overvalued here at home after they just had their way with No. 10 Villanova 71-60, improving them to 8-0 at home. No question the Golden Eagles should be favored, but this is too many points in a game they could easily suffer a letdown after that big win over the Wildcats.
Marquette is just 2-5 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a losing road record, while the Friars are a31-16 ATS last 47 off an upset win as a dog. Take Providence!
|01-07-20||Florida v. South Carolina +5.5||81-68||Loss||-109||19 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on South Carolina +5½ -109
The Gamecocks are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Gators. South Carolina comes in off a shocking 56-63 loss at home to Stetson as a 22.5-point favorite. Gamecocks have had a problem not showing up against lessor teams this year, but there's no concerns of them not coming to play in this one.
One thing to note about that loss to Stetson is it came way back on Dec. 30th, not an ideal time for teams playing during the holidays and that was their only game since Dec. 22nd. No doubt head coach Frank Martin has had their full attention in practice over the last week.
We know the talent is there. This team went on the road and beat Virginia as a 10-point dog and also has a 13-point win at Clemson as a 6-point dog. Gators have been overvalued all season, as they are just 4-9 ATS and have lost both of their true road games at UConn and Butler. Take South Carolina!
|01-06-20||UL - Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 146||81-73||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UL - Lafayette/Appalachian State under 146 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's Sun Belt matchup between UL-Lafayette and Appalachian State. I think we are getting value with the total due to the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns come in averaging 73 ppg while giving up 74.6 ppg.
Thing is Lafayette was playing much faster in non-conference than they are early on in Sun Belt play. Ragin' Cajuns are averaging just 67.2 ppg and allowing 67.5 ppg in their 4 conference games. You combine that with the fact that the Mountaineers are giving up just 63.8 ppg overall and 61.6 ppg at home and you can see why the books have completely missed the mark in this one.
UNDER is 22-7 in Lafayette's last 29 games vs a team that is giving up 64 or fewer points/game 15+ games into the season. UNDER is also 9-3 in Appalachian State's last 12 games overall, 9-1 in their last 10 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|01-05-20||Northwestern +9.5 v. Minnesota||Top||68-77||Win||100||19 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +9½ -108
Love the value here with the Wildcats as a near double-digit dog against the Gophers. I just think we are getting a great price on Northwestern because of the fact that they come in having lost 3 straight. However, they just as easily could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 5 or less points.
Minnesota is a good team, but should not be laying this big a number inside Big Ten play. Gophers have already lost twice at home to Oklahoma and DePaul, two teams I think are pretty similar in terms of talent to the Wildcats.
Minnesota also has a history of playing down to their competition, as they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 vs a team with a losing record. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 9 meetings in the series. Take Northwestern!
|01-05-20||Manhattan +1 v. Niagara||67-62||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +1 -109
Easy play here on the Jaspers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Manhattan comes in at just 5-5, but opened up MAAC play with a 76-67 win at Canisius as a 5-point dog.
They should have no problem cashing another win and cover on the road against a bad Niagara team that has won just 3-games all season. Manhattan is 9-3 ATS last 12 off a win and are 12-5 ATS last 17 as a dog.
Jaspers should have their way inside against a small Purple Eagles team with their big duo of Warren Williams and Pauley Paulicap. Not only should they get a lot of easy looks, but they also should get a ton of second chances with offensive rebounds.
Niagara did win and cover last time out against Fairfield, but are just 4-10 ATS last 14 off a cover and 2-5 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Take Manhattan!
|01-04-20||Idaho State +8.5 v. CS Sacramento||49-68||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS-Sacramento/Idaho St ATS WINNER on Idaho State +8½ -110
The Bengals are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Hornets. This is just too good a price to pass up with Idaho State, who just knocked off Eastern Washington 75-69 as a 7.5-point home dog.
Sacramento State on the other hand is coming off back-to-back losses and are in the midst of a major offensive slump. The Hornets have shot 36% or worse from the field in each of their last 4 games and when you can't score it's hard to cover a big number like this.
Bengals are have covered 5 straight games on the road and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as an underdog. Take Idaho State +8.5!
|01-04-20||Oral Roberts +1.5 v. Nebraska-Omaha||67-74||Loss||-109||8 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Oral Roberts/Neb-Omaha ATS WINNER on Oral Roberts +1½ -109
Oral Roberts is definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against Nebraska-Omaha. This is a great buy low spot on the Golden Eagles after losing their last two on the road against BYU and South Dakota State. At the same time, it's a good spot to sell on the Mavericks, who are off back to back wins.
While Nebraska-Omaha was able to win their last two, the defense continues to be a huge problem. The Mavs have now allowed 78 or more points in 5 straight games. That's a bit of problem here against a Oral Roberts squad that can light you up. Golden Eagles are averaging 78.4 ppg and have done so despite shooting just 42% from the field for the season.
Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 17-6 ATS last 23 off 2 or more consecutive losses. Nebraska-Omaha on the other hand is a mere 10-22 ATS last 32 after covering 3 of their last 4. Take Oral Roberts!
|01-04-20||UAB v. Old Dominion -3||Top||52-58||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion -3 -109
I love the value here with the Monarchs as a small home favorite against the Blazers. Don't be fooled by Old Dominion's 5-9 record, as they have played a really tough non-conference schedule. It also has them undervalued and we have seen that of late with them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Most recently they won and covered in a 70-60 win at home over Middle Tennessee. UAB has lost 3 straight true road games. Most recently falling 44-51 at Charlotte in their last game. To only score 44 points against the 49ers tells you a lot about the struggles of this Blazers offense and this another tough matchup for them.
Not only does ODU make it tough on teams to score inside they dominate the glass. Simply playing good defense won't be enough for UAB in this one. Monarchs are 6-0 ATS last 6 times they have played a team like the Blazers that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game. Blazers are also 1-6-1 ATS last 8 times they have matched up with a team with a losing record. Take Old Dominion!
|01-04-20||Middle Tennessee +8 v. Charlotte||62-68||Win||100||18 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK on Middle Tennessee +8 -109
I really like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a near double-digit dog at Charlotte. It's been a real tough go for Middle Tennessee to start the year as they are just 4-10 SU and 1-9 ATS with a 0-7 ATS mark on the road. I believe the books have finally adjusted the number on the Blue Raiders, as this is a really good price to back them against the 49ers.
Charlotte just isn't a good enough team to be laying this kind of number, especially with how they are shooting the ball right now. After hitting just 33% from the field in a loss at ECU, they shot just 37% at home in a 51-44 win against UAB.
49ers are just 7-19 ATS last 26 off a win and a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 after holding a team to 50 or fewer points. Charlotte is also just 8-19 ATS last 27 at home after winning 4 of their last 5. Take Middle Tennessee!
|01-04-20||East Tennessee State +3.5 v. Furman||56-65||Loss||-109||18 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on East Tennessee State +3½ -109
East Tennessee State is worth a look here in a massive revenge spot against the Paladins. Last year Furman laid it on the Bucs 91-61. Thing ETSU has everyone back and have made it clear they want to make amends for what happened last season.
Hard to bet against the Buccaneers with how well they are playing. East Tennessee State has won 4 straight and 10 of 11 overall. They are 13-2 on the season and one of those losses is a road game at Kansas (by just 12 points).
ETSU will be hitting the road after playing their last 3 at home and that's worth noting as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games following 3 or more consecutive home games and a perfect 9-0 ATS last 9 times after playing 3 straight at home as a favorite. Furman is just 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take East Tennessee State!
|01-04-20||Texas State -4 v. Arkansas State||70-67||Loss||-108||3 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Texas St/Arkansas St ATS WINNER on Texas State -4 -108
If you just look at the records this line won't make a lot of sense. Texas State is 7-7 overall and 1-6 on the road, yet are laying a decent number here at Arkansas State, who is 10-4 overall and 7-2 at home. Trust the books in this one. Bobcats are the better team. They got the better offense and the better defense.
Note that Texas State has played the likes of Air Force, Baylor, Houston on the road and all 3 of those losses were by single digits. In fact, this team has only one loss all season by more than 10 points and that's a mere 12-point loss at Georgia State. Arkansas State hasn't been nearly as competitive against good teams and just lost at home by 19 to Texas Arlington.
Bobcats are 22-9 ATS last 31 road games after failing to cover their last 2 games and the favorite is a dominant 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Take Texas State!
|01-04-20||North Texas v. Marshall -3.5||67-64||Loss||-109||16 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Marshall -3½ -109
The Thundering Herd are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Mean Green. Marshall comes into this game having won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a UNI team.
They are perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, which has coincided with the addition of Andrew Taylor to the lineup. Since he's been added the Herd have scored a minimum of 80 points. That offense is simply going to be too much for North Texas, who despite a recent surge of scoring in their last few games are averaging just 60.6 ppg away from home, where they are 1-6 on the season.
Books simply haven't caught up to this new look Marshall team, plus we are seeing the Mean Green still a bit overvalued from their recent string of 6 straight covers. A streak that came to an end in their last game when they gave up 93 points on the road to WKU. Take Marshall!
|01-04-20||Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina +1.5||72-74||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Georgia St/Coastal Carolina ATS WINNER on Coastal Carolina +1½ -109
The Chanticleers are worth a look here as a small home dog against the Panthers in Saturday's Sun Belt play. Georgia State comes in having won 9 of 10 and are fresh off a 69-60 win as a 2-point dog at Appalachian State.
Thing is the Panthers will only have one day off between that game against the Mountaineers and this one. I just think it's asking a bit too much of the Panthers against a good Coastal Carolina team that has been playing well with 5 wins in their last 7 games.
Georgia State is also just 2-6 ATS last 8 as a road favorite, while the Chanticleers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as a dog. Take Coastal Carolina!
|01-04-20||NC State v. Clemson +2||70-81||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson +2 -109
The Tigers are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Wolfpack. The books are absolutely begging you to take NC State in this one. Wolfpack come in at 10-3 and are facing a Clemson team that is just 6-7 overall and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
What people will overlook is the Tigers are poised to get things going. They just recently got back one of their better players in Clyde Trapp, who returned 3 games ago (recovering from offseason ACL surgery) and was just inserted into the starting lineup in their last game against Miami.
NC State simply doesn't play good enough defense to be trusted away from home. Wolfpack are allowing 80.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their 4 road games this season. That's a big problem against a Clemson defense that only gives up 58.8 ppg and 38% shooting at home.
Tigers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 5-2 ATS last 7 as a dog. Home team is also a strong 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Clemson!
|01-03-20||Temple -3 v. Tulsa||Top||44-70||Loss||-110||19 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -3 -110
I love the value here with the Owls as a small road favorite against the Golden Hurricane. Temple will be riding a wave of momentum after closing out their 56-49 win on the road against UCF on a 12-2 run. Their defense held the Knights scoreless for the last 3.5 minutes.
That win really speaks volumes to what this Owls team is capable of. Temple nearly won by double-digits despite shooting a mere 37.7% from the field and turning it over 17 times. I look for them to not only shoot the ball better, but take better care of it against a struggling Tulsa team that has lost 3 straight.
Golden Hurricane are just 4-13 ATS last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. Owls on the other hand are 7-2 ATS last 9 overall and 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Note that while Tulsa is 7-2 at home, they are just 4-5 ATS in those games. Take Temple!
|01-03-20||Delaware -3 v. Drexel||55-61||Loss||-100||17 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Delaware -3 +100
The Blue Hens are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Dragons. Delaware should be extremely motivated to get a win here after letting one slip away in their most recent game against Charleston. The Blue Hens let a 6-point halftime lead turn into a 12-point loss.
I think that setback is definitely giving us some value here, as they are definitely the more talented of the two teams here. Drexel has also been overvalued by the books, especially at home. Dragons are 5-9 ATS overall and just 2-5 ATS at home. They have failed to cover 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Blue Hens have also been sensational in this spot, going 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Dragons are also a mere 2-5 ATS last 7 as a dog and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Delaware!
|01-02-20||Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State -1.5||79-96||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -1½ -110
This is too good a price to pass up with the Jackrabbits at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. All you have to do is look at the home/away splits to see the value in this one. South Dakota State is a perfect 8-0 at home compared to 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts is 1-6 on the road compared to 6-0 at home.
The Golden Eagles are simply getting too much love here because they come in having covered 3 straight and each of their last 5 lined games overall. Thing is they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 on the road when they come in having covered 4/5 of their last 6.
Jackrabbits have been undervalued a lot lately, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 31-14 ATS last 45 off a conference loss and 4-0 ATS last 4 as a home favorite. Take South Dakota State!
|01-02-20||Troy State +4 v. Louisiana-Monroe||Top||63-79||Loss||-110||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy State +4 -110
Absolutely love the value here with the Trojans as a road dog against ULM. While both teams come in with similarly poor records, Troy is 4-2 over their last 6 and working on a 5-1 ATS run.
Warhawks have lost 5 straight and their 4 wins this season have come against the likes of Louisiana College, Alcorn State, Northwestern St and Millsaps College. Two of those games didn't have a line and the other two they were double-digit favorites.
No way should ULM be favored here. Warhawks are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Trojans are also 7-3 ATS last 10 games when listed as a dog. Take Troy!
|01-02-20||Georgia State v. Appalachian State -2||69-60||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Appalachian State -2 -110
Really like the value here with the Mountaineers at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Panthers. For starters, this is a great buy low spot on Appalachian State coming off a 12-point loss to NC State.
The Mountaineers have thrived in this spot, going 12-2 ATS last 14 times after a loss by 10 or more points. App State had also been playing well prior to the setback, as they had won their previous 4 games. Mountaineers are 22-10 ATS last 32 at home when they come in having won 4 of 5.
Georgia State is off to a strong 9-4 start and are 8-1 in their last 9 games, but are in a tough scheduling spot playing on just 2 days of rest. Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS last 4 as a favorite and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Appalachian State!
|01-02-20||Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina -1.5||70-67||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Coastal Carolina -1½ -110
The books have completely missed the mark in this one. These two teams come in with identical records, but are simply not giving the Chanticleers the kind of respect they deserve at home, especially with how much worse the Eagles have been on the road. Georgia Southern is a perfect 6-0 at home, but are just 2-5 on the road.
Coastal Carolina is also playing well with 5 wins over their last 6 games and a 3-1 ATS mark in their last 4. Chanticleers should have their way on the offensive end in this one. They are averaging 82 ppg and shooting 47.3% from the field. They will facing an Eagles defense that has an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% (295th) on the defensive end.
Chanticleers are a dominant 20-9-1 ATS last 30 games off a SU win, while the Eagles are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road dog and 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Coastal Carolina!
|01-01-20||New Mexico -10 v. San Jose State||Top||85-88||Loss||-110||20 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico -10 -110
I love the Lobos winning by double-digits and covering the spread on the road against the Spartans. This is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. New Mexico is 13-2 and come into this one having won 8 straight. San Jose State is a mere 4-10 and are 1-8 in their last 9 games.
Spartans really don't do anything well. They are shooting a worthless 39.3% from the field on offense and are allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field. New Mexico is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse and allowing 45% or better.
San Jose State did cover in a home win over Pepperdine in their last game, but that's a positive here, as the Spartans are 0-6 ATS last 6 home games off a cover and 1-10 ATS last 11 overall off a cover in general. Take New Mexico!
|01-01-20||Connecticut +3 v. Cincinnati||51-67||Loss||-109||17 h 44 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut +3 -109
The Huskies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is just getting a little too much love here at home. Bearcats have lost 3 of their last 4, including an ugly home loss to Colgate as a 12.5-point favorite.
Not to mention Cincinnati has been one of the worst bets in the country early on, as the Bearcats are 3-9 ATS. It's the exact opposite for Connecticut. Huskies come in having won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. They are also a dominant 9-3 ATS on the season, including a 3-1 ATS mark away from home.
Turnovers should be a key part in the Huskies cover here. UConn ranks 28th in defensive turnover rate, while the Bearcats are 238th in offensive turnover rate (average 15 turnovers/game).
There's also a great system here favoring the Huskies. Road teams off 3 or more consecutive home wins with a line of +3 to -3 are a dominant 97-52 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take UConn!
|01-01-20||South Dakota -1 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||59-70||Loss||-111||13 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Dakota -1 -111
The Coyotes are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against IUPU-Ft Wayne. I just feel we are getting value with South Dakota due to the fact that they come in off 3 straight losses as a favorite.
The recent struggles for the Coyotes can be pinpointed to the absence of starting point guard Triston Simpson. He had missed 7 games before returning for their last contest. He just had a bad first game back going 3 of 14 from the field. He should be much better in game two.
South Dakota is 13-4 ATS last 17 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Mastodons are just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 off a loss and 2-5-2 ATS last 9 as an underdog. Simply put the Coyotes should be laying a much bigger number here. Take South Dakota!
|12-31-19||Cal-Riverside v. Air Force -4||56-105||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Air Force -4 -110
You have a 6-7 Air Force team that is laying a decent number against a 9-5 UC-Riverside squad, which tells you the records of these two are very misleading. I couldn't agree more with the books and actually see value here with the Falcons.
Air Force has simply played the tougher schedule and should have a big home court edge in this one, as the Highlanders are just 3-4 away from home and only scoring 61.3 ppg on the road. That inability to score on the road will be a problem against a Falcons team that is averaging 82.8 ppg and shooting 53% from the field on their home floor.
Riverside did have an upset win at Fresno State in their last game, but are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an win as a dog and 0-6 ATS when off a win as a road dog. Falcons are 18-7 ATS last 25 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 7 or more days of rest. Take Air Force!
|12-31-19||Temple -2 v. UCF||Top||62-58||Win||100||5 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -2 -109
I'll lay the short number with the Owls on the road against UCF. I just think the matchup here heavily favors Temple. The Owls are so good at forcing teams to beat them from outside the paint, as they just don't give up easy baskets inside. That's a big problem for the Knights, who just don't have a lot of shooting. UCF comes in shooting a mere 30.6% from deep.
Another thing is the Knights rely a lot on getting second chance points by attacking the offensive glass and defensive rebounding is a big strength and priority for the Owls. Temple's defense has also only gotten better with the recent insertion of Jake Forrester into the starting lineup.
Owls are also a great team to back away from home. Temple is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road against a team with a winning road record. Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Temple!
|12-30-19||George Mason v. TCU -8.5||53-87||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU -8½ -110
The Horned Frogs should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against the Patriots. George Mason comes in at 11-1 and it's simply got them getting way to much respect against a superior opponent. The Patriots impressive start is a direct result of them playing the 327th ranked strength of schedule. Their only game against a team ranked inside the Top 100 in KenPom was vs Maryland and they lost by 23.
Another reason we are getting value is the fact that while TCU is a respectable 8-3 to start the year, they have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. There's nothing wrong with their 3 losses, as they have come against the likes of Clemson, USC and Xavier. All 3 coming by 8 or fewer points.
Once the Horned Frogs starting hit their shots they are going to be a real tough out in the Big 12 and with this being their final tune-up before conference play I think we see them lay it on the Patriots. Take TCU!
|12-30-19||St Bonaventure v. Buffalo UNDER 145.5||79-84||Loss||-110||21 h 44 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on St Bonaventure/Buffalo under 145½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's matchup between Buffalo and St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies are rolling right now, as they have won 7 straight and their defense has been a big part of their success.
Only once during this stretch has St Bonaventure given up more than 65 points, so while the Bulls are scoring 80.6 ppg, I don't see them coming anywhere close to that. Buffalo will find it really tough scoring inside. Bulls have an undersized frontline and will be facing one of the best interior defenders in the country in Osun Osunniyi.
I know Buffalo's defense has had their lapses, but the Bonnies are from an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they only average 67.7 ppg.
UNDER is 18-4 in the Bulls last 22 home games after scoring 80 or more points in 2 straight games and 6-0 in their last 6 at home off a blowout win by 20 or more. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Bonnies last 14 road games and 6-0 in their last 6 as a road dog of 3 or less. Take the UNDER!
|12-30-19||Youngstown State v. Illinois-Chicago -3.5||Top||70-64||Loss||-110||19 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois-Chicago -3½ -110
I love the value here with the Flames laying a short number at home against the Penguins. UIC has won each of their last two games and are in a great buy low spot, as they just recently got back one of their top scorers in Marcus Ottey. He's played in just the last 4 games and scored double-figures in all 4.
It's also worth noting that while the Flames are just 6-8 overall, they have had 3 losses by 4 or fewer points. Youngstown State is getting some love after covering 4 straight, but this is not an ideal spot for the Penguins are who will be forced to play their second road game in a mere 3 days.
Youngstown State is just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 on the road and are losing be close to 10 ppg on average away from home this season. Take Illinois-Chicago!
|12-29-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5||71-64||Loss||-110||7 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Indiana -5 -110
I really like the value here with Indiana as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. While both teams come in with just 1 loss on the season, I've been way more impressed with Indiana's resume. Arkansas has only played one team inside the KenPom top 100 and that 93rd ranked Western Kentucky.
Razorbacks were fortunate to get a win last time out as they trailed by 5 against Valpo last before squeaking out a 72-68 victory. Indiana's only loss is at Wisconsin. They are 9-0 at home and one of those was a 16-point win over a good FSU team.
Hoosiers have done an excellent job scoring in the paint and are one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line (averaging 20 made free throws per game). I just don't think the Razorbacks are built to slow them down and wouldn't be shocked if this thing turned into a blowout. Take Indiana!
|12-29-19||Rhode Island v. Middle Tennessee +6.5||89-62||Loss||-110||5 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Middle Tennessee +6½ -110
Easy play here with the Blue Raiders catching what I feel is a big number at home against Rhode Island. This is a big flat spot for Rhode Island coming out of their Christmas break on the road after a lengthy layoff against a hungry Middle Tennessee team. One in which they might have a hard time getting up with the Blue Raiders just 4-9 overall and a mere 1-8 in their last 9.
Last time out Middle Tennessee nearly won outright as a 4-point dog against St Bonaventure, falling to the Bonnies by a final score of 66-65. That's worth noting, as the Blue Raiders are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after playing their previous game as a home dog. Rhode Island is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Middle Tennessee!
|12-28-19||Northern Arizona +7.5 v. Montana||Top||72-79||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Arizona +7½ -110
I love the value here with Northern Arizona as a near double-digit dog at Montana. The Lumberjacks come into this game at 6-3 and have covered 4 straight, while the Grizzlies are a mere 4-7 and 3-6 in their last 9.
Montana is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Grizzlies come in scoring just 64.8 ppg and are shooting just 425 from the field and 29% from long distance.
Northern Arizona averages 75.6 ppg and one thing I love about the Lumberjacks is how they get to the free throw line. They are one of the best in the country at doing so and Montana is one of the worst at sending opponents to the charity line. Grizzlies opponents are averaging 15 made free throws a game against them.
Lumberjacks are 5-1 ATS last 6 times they have been listed as a road dog. Also underdogs with a winning record who have beaten the spread by 30 or more points in their last 3 games and playing a team with a losing record are 23-7 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-28-19||NC-Wilmington v. Delaware -11.5||68-82||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Delaware -11½ -110
Easy play here on the Blue Hens laying double-digits at home against the Seahawks. These two teams have played almost the same strength of schedule, yet Delaware is sitting at 10-3 and Wilmington is a mere 5-8.
Even more important here is the home/away splits. The Blue Hens are a perfect 6-0 at home where they are scoring 78.8 ppg. The Seahawks are 1-5 away from home and scoring a miserable 57.8 ppg on the road this season. Delaware has one of the best scorers in the country in Nate Darling, who is currently 16th in the nation at 21.4 ppg.
Wilmington is a mere 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 1-7-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog. Take Delaware!
|12-28-19||Northern Colorado v. Portland State +3||65-69||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland State +3 -115
Easy play here on the Vikings as a home dog against Northern Colorado. Portland State is 3-1 on their home floor and have won 3 of their last 4 overall, including a 76-66 win last time out at Loyola-Marymount as a 3.5-point dog. Covering has not been a problem for the Vikings, who are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
The Bears come in having won 4 straight, but that's actually a positive here, as Northern Colorado is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having won 4 or more games in a row.
Look for the Vikings to torment the Bears on the offensive glass. Northern Colorado is vulnerable in that department and Portland State ranks 6th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Vikings are also 9-2 ATS last 11 games at home and 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games played on Saturday. Take Portland State!
|12-25-19||Georgia Tech v. Hawaii +3||70-53||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Hawaii +3 -110
The Rainbow Warriors are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Yellow Jackets in their Christmas Day matchup in the Diamond Head Classic. Hawaii has such a huge advantage here with this game being played at home, especially with both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Rainbow Warriors have gone 8-1 SU at home this season, while the Yellow Jackets are just 5-6 overall and 2-3 away from home. In Hawaii's last game they lost to No. 21 Washington by just 11-points and that was with their leading scorer, Eddie Stansberry, scoring just 5 points on a dreadful 1-17 shooting (all 3-pointers).
Georgia Tech is a mere 4-9 ATS last 13 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Rainbow Warriors are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS last 8 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Hawaii!
|12-23-19||Long Beach State v. Seattle University -5||57-79||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle University -5 -109
The Redhawks are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the 49ers. Big bounce back spot for Seattle after they were embarrassed on their home floor by Florida A&M as a 13.5-point favorite. I still like what I've seen overall from the 49ers and this Long Beach State team is one they can handle with ease.
49ers have played 8 of their first 13 games on the road and are 1-7 and getting outscored by 15.8 ppg. It's almost the exact opposite for Seattle, who even after that loss to Florida A&M are still outscoring teams at home 81.8 to 67.5 ppg. You have one team that is scoring 80+ games at home and one giving up 80+ ppg on the road. I just don't think the number here has been set high enough. Take Seattle!
|12-22-19||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. Mercer||65-50||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Florida Atlantic +3½ -107
The Owls are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bears. I just think we are seeing Mercer get a little too much love off their close call and cover at home against Furman last time out. Bears are still just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
FAU comes in having won 3 straight and are 5-1 over their last 6. Owls have a really good player in Jailyn Ingram who seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. FAU has the better offensive and better defensive numbers and I'm confident they win this game outright.
Mercer is a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 home games off a straight up loss, 3-7 ATS last 10 home games overall and 1-8 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take FAU!
|12-22-19||New Mexico State +5.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||58-52||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico State +5½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State comes in at 8-2, but a big reason for that is the schedule. The Bulldogs best win is a neutral site victory against Kansas State. They just struggled to put away Radford in their last game and recently lost at home to Louisiana Tech.
New Mexico State has gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, but are off a win and cover against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Aggies debuted UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard in that game and A.J. Harris, who has been out all year could be back for this one.
Also, I like the matchup here. Aggies are really good at forcing their opponents into making mistakes. They are averaging 15 forced turnovers a game and Mississippi State ranks 327th in turnover rate. New Mexico State is also a great offensive rebounding team (32nd nationally) and Bulldogs rank a mere 232nd in defensive rebound rate.
Mississippi State is also just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they come into a game having won 2 of their last 3. Take New Mexico State!
|12-21-19||CS Bakersfield -2.5 v. Cal Poly||72-50||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS Bakersfield/Cal Poly ATS Winner on CS Bakersfield -2½ -109
I like the value here with CS-Bakersfield as a small road favorite against Cal Poly. Neither team is all that great, but I do give the edge here to the Roadrunners. A big reason for that is they should dominate the glass. Bakersfield ranks 15th in offensive rebound rate and 45th on defense. Cal Poly is one of the worst teams in the country on the board.
The Mustangs also can't score and don't exactly defend all that great either Cal Poly is scoring just 63.6 ppg and giving up 72.3 ppg. Mustangs are 0-8 ATS last 8 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and just 2-9 ATS last 2 seasons at home. Take CS-Bakersfield!
|12-21-19||Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +2.5||69-66||Loss||-110||9 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Lafayette/Little Rock ATS Winner on UL - Lafayette +2½ -110
I'll take the Ragin' Cajuns and the points as they get ready to host Little Rock Saturday night. I just don't think Lafayette should be getting points at home. Little-Rock has won their last t2, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite in a mere 1-point win at ULM on Thursday and now must play another road game on just 1-day of rest.
Ragin' Cajuns have lost their last 3, but all 3 of those were true road games. Lafayette is a perfect 4-0 at home where they are absolutely lighting up the scoreboard with 87.7 ppg on 49% shooting. Little Rock only scored 65.0 ppg away from home and I just don't see them keeping pace in this one.
Little Rock is 5-14 ATS last 19 conference games and Ragin Cajuns are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a loss by 10 or more. Take Lafayette!
|12-21-19||Eastern Illinois v. Grand Canyon -2.5||63-85||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Illinois/Grand Canyon ATS Winner on Grand Canyon -2½ -110
I like the value here with the Antelopes as a small home favorite against the Panthers. Good spot here to jump on Grand Canyon at home after losing their last 3. No real shocker that they did as they came against better teams in Liberty, Northern Iowa and New Mexico.
Key here is the bad spot for Eastern Illinois, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a week span. They are also coming off a max effort against rival Western Illinois, making them prime for a letdown. Eastern Illinois is also just 14-29 ATS last 43 after covering 3 straight. Take Grand Canyon!
|12-21-19||St Bonaventure -3.5 v. Middle Tennessee||66-65||Loss||-105||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -3½ -105
Easy play here on the Bonnies as a small road favorite against the Blue Raiders. St Bonaventure has been on an absolute tear of late. Bonnies come in having won 6 straight and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lined games.
It's the exact opposite for Middle Tennessee, who has lost 7 of their last 8 and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in this stretch. Every loss in this poor run has come by double-digits. Blue Raiders are scoring 75.2 ppg, which looks good, but is actually less than what their opponents have given up on average. I just think they will have a real tough time scoring here against a St Bonaventure defense that is holding opponents to 61.8 ppg, 40% from the field and 30% from deep. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-21-19||North Carolina v. UCLA +4.5||74-64||Loss||-109||5 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCLA +4½ -109
I really like the value here with UCLA getting points against the Tar Heels in their neutral site showdown in Las Vegas. This is just as bad a North Carolina team as I can remember and things have really took a turn for the worse with star freshman Cole Anthony sidelined. Tar Heels have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
I get the Bruins haven't been all that impressive in their own right, but I do feel like they are the better team. I also think they got an edge here having not played in a week, while UNC is a long way from home and playing on just 2 days rest after laying it all on the line at Gonzaga Wednesday.
Tar Heels just keep getting overvalued by the books because of how big a name they are. UNC is a mere 1-7 ATS in games where they are listed as the favorite and 0-4 ATS off a cover. Take UCLA!
|12-21-19||Fairfield +7 v. Oakland||61-59||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Fairfield +7 -110
The Stags are definitely worth a look at this price in Saturday's matchup at Oakland. Fairfield comes into this game with a less than impressive 2-7 SU record and I think it has them showing value.
The Stags are really unlucky to be sitting here with just 2 wins. Only one of their 7 losses have come by more than 11 points and 3 have been by 4 or fewer. They not only capable of covering here against Oakland, but winning this game outright. The Golden Grizzlies have lost 5 of 6 and have to be running on fumes after playing 6 straight away from home.
Also both of these teams have played at Maryland and while both lost, the Stags lost by just 19, while the Golden Grizzlies fell by 30. Take Fairfield!
|12-21-19||Illinois v. Missouri +4.5||56-63||Win||100||3 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Illinois/Missouri ATS Winner on Missouri +4½ -110
I like Missouri at this price as they get ready to take on Illinois at the Scottrade Center in St Louis. The Tigers really need this game to boost their non-conference resume, as they have came up short in their other big games against Xavier, Butler and Oklahoma.
Missouri has won and covered each of their last two, so they come in with some momentum. Illinois has gotten off to a strong 8-3 start with a big home win over Michigan, but their only win away from home against Grand Canyon and even that was a less than impressive showing.
Favorite has covered just once in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and Neutral court favorites who are averaging 78+ ppg and facing a team that scores 63-67 ppg are just 10-33 ATS (23%) if off a game where they held an opponent to 55 or less. Take Missouri!