|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-08-18||UTEP +24 v. UNLV||Top||24-52||Loss||-111||103 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +
After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona.
What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been.
We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV!
|09-08-18||Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota||14-21||Loss||-115||60 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +
I expect the public to be all over Minnesota here, as they won't be able to help themselves but take a Big Ten team laying less than a field goal at home against a team from the MWC. Especially after the Gophers annihilated New Mexico State 48-10 as a 22.5-point favorite this past Saturday.
That performance against the Aggies is nothing to be excited about. New Mexico State is way down this year. They were missing a ton of starters on defense and that's the same offense that managed 135 total yards against Wyoming in 'Week Zero.' That same Wyoming defense gave up 41 points to a Washington State that only had 4 starters back on offense.
The other thing that stands out to me is the play of Gophers new true freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad. He threw for 220 yards and 2 scores, but was a mere 16 of 33 passing. Luckily Minnesota had their way on the ground (295 yards on 47 attempts).
The thing is, they aren't going to be able to run all over Fresno State. The Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a defense that only gave up 113 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry last year. Annexstad and the Gophers offense is going to be forced into a lot more passing situations and that's going to be a problem.
The Bulldogs put up 79 points in their opener against Idaho and should have one of their better offenses in recent memory with 8 starters back. I think they do more than enough here to get a win on the road against Minnesota.
Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-confernce games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Fresno State!
|09-08-18||Memphis -6.5 v. Navy||21-22||Loss||-110||88 h 58 m||Show|
4* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -
I don't see the Tigers having any problem here winning by at least double-digits on the road against Navy. I think a lot of people are sleeping on this Memphis team due to the fact that they lost a really good quarterback in Riley Ferguson, but look out for junior Brady White, who is a grad transfer from Arizona State (Memphis head coach Mike Norvell was the OC when White first started out with ASU).
I know it came against Mercer, but it's hard to ignore his stat line in the opener. White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and 5 scores. The Tigers also rushed for 324 yards. Keep in mind this is an offense that averaged 45.5 ppg and 532 ypg last year and 7 starters back.
The Midshipmen had no answer for Hawaii's high-flying offense in their opener, as the Rainbow Warriors put up 59 in an 18-point win as a 13.5-point dog. Hawaii's Cole McDonald completed 30 of 41 for 428 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Memphis has 8 starters back on defense in what is their 3rd season under defensive coordinator Chris Ball. They should be greatly improved on that side of the ball and they looked sharp in the opener, holding Mercer to just 174 total yards and 8 first downs. I think they are going to be ready for that triple-option and Navy is not a team that can play from behind. Take Memphis!
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +22.5||42-12||Loss||-110||60 h 19 m||Show|
3* TCU/SMU Friday Night ATS DESTROYER on SMU +
Analysis will be posted shortly
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||36 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Labor Day ATS NO-BRAINER on Va Tech +
Florida State is getting way too much respect here against the Hokies. The Seminoles took a turn for the worse in 2017, as they managed to go just 7-6 and were lucky to finish with a winning record after a dreadful 3-6 start. Most are just assuming that FSU will bounce back and return to elite status, but I don't think that's going to be the case.
Not to take anything away from Willie Taggart, but he's not on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. In fact, Taggart has a losing record at 47-50 over 8 seasons as a head coach. With a new head coach comes scheme changes and the players that are left over don't always fit the new systems.
I just have a lot more trust in Virginia Tech coming out and playing well. The Hokies will be in year 3 under head coach Justin Fuente and he backed up his 10-4 debut season with a 9-4 record in 2017. Va Tech's offense should be explosive with 7 starters back , including talented sophomore quarterback Joshua Jackson.
The Hokies do lose a lot defensively, but I don't think the drop off will be as big as some are expecting. FSU loses just as much defensively and I have a lot more confidence in Virginia Tech's offense being able to stay on the field and finish off drives with touchdowns. Take Virginia Tech!
|09-02-18||Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5||Top||17-33||Win||100||372 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +
I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away.
LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup.
I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU!
|09-01-18||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10||Top||7-33||Win||100||414 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -
Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC.
Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little.
This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory.
The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick).
While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10!
|09-01-18||West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5||40-14||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee +
To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons.
It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright.
A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee!
|08-30-18||Northwestern +3 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||100||96 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Limit PLAY OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +
The only real concern here with Northwestern is the health of starting quarterback Clayton Thorson, who is listed as questionable to play. While I can't guarantee he will play, I would absolutely shocked if Thorson wasn't out their for the Wildcats first series. He's been practicing in full for quite some time and the reports out of fall camp that he looks even better than he did before the injury.
I just don't see anyway that Northwestern loses this game with him on the field. Purdue has just 4 starters back on defense and that stop unit was the main reason they went 7-5 last year. While I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think, they aren't going to be as good as last year's squad and will struggle against talented teams like the Wildcats.
On the flip side of this, Northwestern has 7 staters back from a defense that held Purdue to just 13 points last year. I could see the Boilmakers putting up a few more points, but not near enough to give them a chance to win this game.
It's also worth noting that the Wildcats come into this game having covered 8 of their last 9 conference games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten road games and have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with Purdue. Take Northwestern!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia +5||Top||26-23||Win||100||146 h 31 m||Show|
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me.
Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good.
I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia!
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||298 h 30 m||Show|
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -
I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game.
A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win.
There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama!
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||290 h 10 m||Show|
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +
I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team.
A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one.
Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida!
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -8||26-19||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -
I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh.
The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State -7||Top||7-24||Win||100||226 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention.
Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire.
For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State!
|12-28-17||Virginia v. Navy +1||7-49||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on Navy +
I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games.
The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite.
Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games.
This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy!
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||20-27||Win||100||32 h 10 m||Show|
4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.
At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa!
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State||Top||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 33 m||Show|
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion.
All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here.
The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|12-26-17||Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5||14-36||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke -
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest.
I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke!
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||42-35||Loss||-110||16 h 38 m||Show|
4* Armed Forces Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -
I like the value here with the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown against the Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday. I think this is a perfect matchup for San Diego State, as they are very familiar with how to stop the triple-option attack given they play Air Force in the MWC. The Aztecs have owned these one-dimensional offenses, posting a 13-2 record straight up and a 12-3 mark against the spread.
This year shouldn't be any different, as San Diego State is once again stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Aztecs ranked 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 110.4 ypg and only allowed 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, San Diego State is also a team that really likes to run the football, as they were 11th in rushing (252.3 ypg) compared to just 118th in passing (157.9 ypg). Big key here is they at least offer a threat of throwing, plus they will be facing an Army defense that was just 68th vs the run, allowing 166.1 ypg. Take San Diego State!
|12-21-17||Temple -7 v. Florida International||Top||28-3||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -
I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points.
Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7!
|12-16-17||Oregon -7 v. Boise State||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||56 h 8 m||Show|
5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -
A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team.
Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach.
As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman.
On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down.
As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon!
|12-02-17||Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State||14-17||Win||100||58 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Fresno +
I think the books are taking full advantage of the public's love for Boise State and thus have created some great value here on Fresno State. The Bulldogs beat the Broncos last week 28-17 as 7-point home dog, but most just throw that game away because both teams had nothing to gain, as each had already secured their division titles and knew they would be facing each other again this Saturday.
I also think people are slow to give this Fresno State any love because of how big bad they have been. The Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and weren't expected to be any good. The key for me is I don't think this a fluke at all. Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford went 82-57 in 11 seasons with the Golden Bears and is why this team is where it is. He's going to have a great game plan here and I love that he gets to beat into his players head all week that no one thinks they are any good.
You also have to give props to defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer, who has completely transformed the Bulldogs on that side of the ball. Fresno State finished the year 12th in the country, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 16th in total defense, giving up just 317 ypg. That's with returning just 6 starters from a defense that allowed 30.9 ppg and 415 ypg. They also went from allowing an average of 248 rushing yards/game to giving up just 117.3 ypg. I think they have more than offense here to win this one outright. Take Fresno State!
|12-02-17||Georgia +3 v. Auburn||Top||28-7||Win||100||54 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +
It wasn't pretty for the Bulldogs in the first meeting against the Tigers. Georgia went into Auburn sitting at 9-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, scoring on their first drive, but it was all downhill from there. Auburn led 16-7 at the half and pushed lead up to 40-10 midway through the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a great team, I just think they caught Georgia by surprise in that game earlier this season. I also think that was a Bulldogs team that was starting to get a little too cocky with how they were dominating teams. Georgia simply didn't have the same fire that Auburn did, who at that time was already in win or their season is over mode. I think we get a much different looking Bulldogs team here and I like their chances of winning this game outright.
Another thing here is I just think Auburn could be running on fumes here. They have been in do or die mode since losing to LSU back in the middle of December. The biggest of them all was last week against rival Alabama, which secured their spot in the SEC title game. This will be their 3rd game against a Top 10 team in their last 4 games, while Georgia hasn't been tested since that loss to Auburn. I think the Tigers will be out of gas. Take Georgia!
|12-02-17||TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma||17-41||Loss||-115||51 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU +
I know the Sooners cruised to a 38-20 win over TCU just a few weeks ago (Nov. 11th), but I think the Horned Frogs are going to put up a much better fight and could even win this game outright. In that first meeting the game was at Oklahoma, which has a huge home field edge. This game will be played at the home of the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
It was also a game where the Sooners struck early and had TCU reeling. Oklahoma was up 24-7 in the first 20 minutes of the game and had a 38-14 edge at the half. Some will say the Sooners called off the dogs in the second half, but I don't think that was the case. A 24-point lead against a good team in the Big 12 is not something to fill safe about in the 3rd quarter.
I believe Gary Patterson and his staff made some big adjustments and will be something they can carry over to this second meeting. Patterson is a great coach and brilliant defensive mind. I expect this TCU defense to make life miserable for Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense. At the same time, I think we see a better game plan here from the Horned Frogs offense and this Oklahoma defense isn't all that good. Take TCU!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -4||28-31||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
3* Pac-12 Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on USC -
I like the value here with USC laying less than a touchdown in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game against rival Stanford. The Trojans whooped up on the Cardinal early on in the regular-season, beating the Cardinal 58-34 and it was every bit a blowout as the final score would suggest. USC put up 623 yards while holding Stanford to just 342, as they outgained the Cardinal by a ridiculous 281 yards.
I think the perception here is that the Cardinal are a much better team, as they have closed out the season winning 8 of their last 9, including wins over No. 9 Washington and No. 8 Notre Dame in their last 3 games. I'm just not buying them being improved enough to be all that competitive with the Trojans. Like they did a year ago, USC has saved their best football for the end of the year and are clearly motivated to win the Pac-12 title. Take USC!
|11-25-17||Idaho v. New Mexico State -8||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||65 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAAF Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State -
I like the value here with the Aggies laying single-digits at home against the Vandals. While Idaho is sitting at 3-7 and out of the bowl picture, New Mexico State is 4-6 and still can reach bowl eligibility with a win here and victory over Georgia State in their finale next week. The key here is the Aggies are a much better team than their 2-4 conference mark would suggest, as they could very easily be 6-0. All 4 losses have come by 6-points or less, including mere 3-point losses against Sun Belt powers Appalachian State and Troy.
Another key here is that Idaho just recently lost starting quarterback Matt Linehan. In the first game without him against Coastal Carolina last week, the Vandals managed just 7-points, 277 total yards and 14 first downs. That's just too big a loss for this team to overcome, as they aren't any good at running the ball. Idaho is 104th in the country, averaging just 130.7 ypg on the ground.
There is a chance New Mexico State could be without starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. I think he plays, but even if he doesn't the Aggies should be able to generate more than enough offense to win here by double-digits. Take New Mexico State!
|11-25-17||North Texas -10 v. Rice||30-14||Win||100||63 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -
This has been a breakout season for the Mean Green, who have already secured the C-USA West title and will play in next week's C-USA championship game. Typically this isn't a spot where I would take a team that really has nothing to play for, but I don't think the Mean Green are going to just lay down with a chance to reach double-digit wins this year. On top of that, North Texas could play their "C" game and still beat Rice by more than two touchdowns.
The Owls are 1-10 and have lost 9 straight since beating UTEP way back in Week 2 of the season. Keep in mind that UTEP is awful, as the Miners are 0-11 on the season. I just don't see Rice has enough talent to keep this close even if they were to treat this like their bowl game. I look for North Texas to try and get as big a lead as possible early on and coast to a comfortable win on Saturday.
Road favorites who have a winning record and have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 are 95-49 (66%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last 10 seasons. Take North Texas!
|11-25-17||East Carolina +28.5 v. Memphis||13-70||Loss||-105||76 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SHOCKER on East Carolina +
I like the value here with the Pirates catching a huge number against the Tigers on Saturday. Memphis has already locked up a spot in the AAC title game, as they will take on the winner of the UCF/USF game on Friday next week. I just don't see the Tigers having any interest in running up the score here on East Carolina. I look for them to be extra cautious with their starters and to keep the game plan as vanilla as possible. The only priority here is to get a win without getting anyone hurt and not exposing any more of the playbook than they need to.
As for East Carolina, I look for them to treat this as their bowl game, as no matter the outcome their season comes to an end when this one is over. The Pirates showed they aren't going to just lay down, as they just defeated Cincinnati 48-20 at home. The big key here is the Pirates have an offense that can put points on the board, so even if things get ugly early, the backdoor will be wide open for them in the 2nd half.
It's also worth noting that last time out the Tigers put up 66 points in their win over SMU. Any time Memphis has come off a big offensive outburst like that, they have been a great fade, as the Tigers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 50 or more points. They are also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Take East Carolina!
|11-25-17||Georgia v. Georgia Tech +11||38-7||Loss||-104||3 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Georgia Tech +
I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a big home dog against in-state rival Georgia. There's nothing more that Georgia Tech would rather do than play a part in potentially keeping the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. I think they have what it takes to not only keep it close, but pull off the upset. The Yellow Jackets triple-option will be tough for even this great Georgia defense to stop and most importantly I think Georgia Tech has the talent on defense to slow down that high-powered Bulldogs rushing attack. Don't be worried about the Yellow Jackets ugly loss to Duke, as they were looking ahead to this game and are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a loss by 21 or more points. Take Georgia Tech +11!
|11-24-17||Missouri v. Arkansas +11||Top||48-45||Win||100||55 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a double-digit dog at home against the Tigers. Missouri has caught fire here in the 2nd half of the season and have won 5 straight and covered their last 7. I think they are way overvalued here because of it. While the wins have come by large margins they have also come against bad teams.
Arkansas has had a down year, but there's still a lot of fight in this team and they showed it last week in their near upset at home over Mississippi State. They are going to want to go out with a fight on senior day and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won outright. Razorbacks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home when they come in having failed 2 of their last 3, 15-6 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.
It's also worth noting that the home team has dominated in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Arkansas!
|11-24-17||Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh +14||14-24||Win||100||52 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pitt +
I like the value here with the Panthers as a two touchdown dog at home against the Hurricanes. Miami came out flat last week at home against Virginia and failed to cover. No question the Hurricanes are the better team, but the pressure is really starting to build on this team and they could have a hard time not looking ahead to the ACC title game next week against Clemson.
Pitt on the other hand has nothing to lose and with no shot at getting to bowl eligibility, they are going to treat this like their bowl game. They would enjoy nothing more than ruining the Canes perfect season. Even though the Panthers have lost their last two, they were right there in both.
Another big key here is I think this is a good matchup for Pitt's defense, as their strength has been stopping the run. The Panthers rank 49th in the country, allowing just 151.3 ypg. On top of that, we should see one of their best efforts defensively here at home against a ranked opponent. I don't think Pitt pulls of the upset, but it's not out of the question. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-18-17||Utah v. Washington -17||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||64 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington -
I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home.
Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State.
Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington!
|11-18-17||California +16 v. Stanford||14-17||Win||100||71 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching over two touchdowns in Saturday's rivalry game against Stanford, which is known as the "Big Game." You can never count out the dog in these rivalry games, as this isn't just another game. For Cal it's their biggest game of the season to date. It can be a lot harder for the favorite to bring the same intensity, especially when it's a big spread like this. Making it even harder on the Cardinal is the fact that they are coming off an emotional upset win at home over Washington and have a huge game on deck against Notre Dame.
It's no secret that the key to beating Stanford starts with limiting star running back Bryce Love. I'm not saying Cal will shut him down, but head coach Justin Fuente is a defensive guy and I think his ability to game plan and the all-out effort we are going to get from the Bears, will allow them to keep him from having one of those video game type of games. If they can do that, they will be in good shape, as this is not your typical lock down Cardinal defense.
Note that Stanford is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game in which they covered the spread. Take Cal!
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21||16-39||Win||100||69 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS Vegas INSIDER on Boston’s College -
I like the value here with the Eagles even as a big favorite in Saturday's prime time matchup against the Huskies at Fenway Park. Boston College comes in off a hard fought 14-17 loss at home to NC State. Prior to that defeat the Eagles had been rolling, racking off 3 straight wins, including blowout wins at Virginia (41-10) and at home against Florida State (35-3). I look for BC to return right back to form here and lay a beating on UConn.
The Huskies are coming off a 25-point loss at UCF and the week before fell 20-37 at home to USF. Those are the two best teams in the AAC and clearly this team came to play, as they covered the spread easily in both. I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy here against the Eagles.
More than anything, I don't think UConn will have an answer for BC's star freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who just put up 196 yards against a great NC State defensive line. At the same time, the Huskies offense is built around their passing game and this Eagles defense is not one you want to have to attack through the air, especially without a threat of a running game. They are 23rd in the country, giving up just 187.1 passing yards/game. Opposing QB's are completing just 50.2% of their attempts against them, which is outstanding. In comparison, the Huskies are have allowed opposing teams to complete 67.9% of their attempts. Take Boston College!
|11-18-17||Georgia Tech -6 v. Duke||Top||20-43||Loss||-110||74 h 22 m||Show|
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -
The Yellow Jackets have been a money making machine in 2017. With last week's 28-22 win at home over Georgia Tech as a 3-point dog they are now 7-1 ATS on the season. I think they keep it rolling here with a convincing road win over a struggling Duke team. After starting out the season 4-0 with an emphatic 41-17 win over Northwestern at home, the Blue Devils have lost 6 straight and the most recent was an ugly 16-21 loss at Army, where David Cutcliffe and his staff had two weeks to prepare for the Black Knights.
The extra week didn't exactly help them against the triple-option as Army put up 226 yards on the ground. Now they face an even better triple-option attack led by Georgia Tech's TaQuon Marshall and KirVonte Benson, who have combined to rush for 1,864 yards and 22 touchdowns.
The other thing here is the Blue Devils just aren't clicking offensively right now. Duke has scored more than 20 points just once in their last 6 games and that was a mere 21 against Virginia. They are averaging a whopping 14.0 ppg and 308.2 ypg in conference play. Georgia Tech in comparison is averaging 29.1 ppg and 392.3 ypg in ACC action. I just don't think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep this within a touchdown. Take Georgia Tech!
*Play was upgraded from a 3* to a 5*
|11-18-17||Minnesota v. Northwestern -7||0-39||Win||100||70 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS NO BRAINER on Northwestern -
I like the value here with the Wildcats laying just a touchdown at home against the Gophers on what will be senior day in Northwestern's final home game of the season. The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, as they have won 5 straight, including a 23-13 win over Purdue this past weekend as a similar 6.5-point favorite. Their only losses in conference play are against two of the elite teams in the Big 10 in Wisconsin and Penn State.
Minnesota comes in off an impressive 54-21 win at home against Nebraska, but I think that was more of the Cornhuskers throwing in the towel on their season than anything. The Gophers are still just 2-5 in Big 10 play and their other 4 wins have come against the likes of Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. Note they only beat a horrible Illini team by 7 at home and also had an ugly home loss to Maryland.
Not only do I think Minnesota isn't that good, this is a horrible matchup for the one dimensional Gophers offense. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to their ability to pick up yards in the passing game. They rank 119th out of 130 teams with just 143 ypg through the air. Even in their 52-point outburst against Nebraska they only had 105 yards passing. They are going to play right into the strength of Northwestern's defense, which ranks 7th in the country, giving up just 109.6 ypg against the run. Not only will it make it tough to score, but if they get behind this could get ugly. Take Northwestern!
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State -3 v. Western Kentucky||38-41||Loss||-105||47 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Friday ATS BLOWOUT on Middle Tennessee -
I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a short road favorite against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky hasn't been anywhere close to the C-USA power this season and it's not a huge surprise, as they only brought back 10 starters and lost a great head coach in Jeff Brohm. The Hilltoppers are lucky to be 5-5 and come in having lost 3 straight.
It hasn't been a great season for Middle Tennessee either, but the Blue Raiders struggles can be pinpointed to the absence of starting quarterback Brent Stockstill for 6 games. In his two games back from injury he's thrown for 445 yards with 6 touchdowns (3 in each game). He's going to make life miserable for a WKU defense that has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games.
The other thing here is the Blue Raiders have an underrated defense. Most would be surprised to see that Middle Tennessee ranks 26th in the country, giving up just 334 ypg, ranking inside the Top 40 against both the run and the pass. That secondary that's allowing just 193.9 ypg is key in this matchup, as the Hilltoppers are a one-dimensional passing offense. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-15-17||Western Michigan +10 v. Northern Illinois||31-35||Win||100||45 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Michigan +
I like the value here with the Broncos catching more than a touchdown against the Huskies. Western Michigan might not be on the same level as a year ago, but they are still a very respectable 4-2 in MAC play and could very easily be 6-0. They had a fluke 13-14 loss against Akron, where they outgained the Zips by more than 200 yards. In their other loss they had a 28-14 lead going into the 4th quarter of a 28-35 loss. Even with those setbacks, the MAC West title is still within reach if they can knock off Northern Illinois and Toledo in their last two games.
The Huskies are a good team, but aren't built to blow quality teams like the Broncos out. Northern Illinois is built more to win close games with their strong rushing attack and great defense. The key here is the Western Michigan defense should be able to keep that Huskies rushing attack in check. The Broncos are allowing just 119.3 rushing yards/game in conference play
Northern Illinois is also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games. Take Western Michigan!
|11-14-17||Central Michigan v. Kent State +18||42-23||Loss||-110||21 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tues Night VEGAS INSIDER on Kent State
The public will be inclined to lay the big number on the road with Central Michigan here against a Kent State team that is just 2-8, but I think the value is with the Golden Flashes as a big home dog. It might not seem like Kent State has anything to play for, but this is senior night, so I expect a big effort here.
As for the Chippewas, they come in off a 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan, which secured bowl eligibility, which is always a big deal for these schools from smaller conferences. I think we see Central Michigan come out a bit flat here. The offense is built around their passing attack, which plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, as the Flashes rank 35th in the country vs the pass, allowing just 197.4 ypg. At the same time, I don't the Chippewas are good enough defensively to keep Kent State from scoring enough to cover this big number.
Central Michigan has also struggled in this spot in the past, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and are also a mere 1-5 ATS mark in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Kent State!
|11-11-17||Oregon State +22 v. Arizona||28-49||Win||100||56 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +
I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games.
There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game.
Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State!
|11-11-17||Alabama v. Mississippi State +14||31-24||Win||100||37 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State +
This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric.
I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively.
Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State!
|11-11-17||San Jose State v. Nevada -18||14-59||Win||100||64 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada -
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is.
San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points.
Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada!
|11-11-17||Michigan v. Maryland +17||35-10||Loss||-110||67 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland +
I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home.
Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0.
Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||64 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +
It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU.
This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn!
|11-11-17||Virginia v. Louisville -11||21-38||Win||100||49 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville -
It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores.
I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games.
Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville!
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State -16||3-48||Win||100||45 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State -
The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout.
There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for.
Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around.
Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State!
|11-11-17||Rutgers +31 v. Penn State||Top||6-35||Win||100||63 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +
I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights.
While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible.
I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers!
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||60 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College +
The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia.
A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games.
Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College!
|11-11-17||Indiana -7.5 v. Illinois||24-14||Win||100||60 h 48 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -
I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits.
Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds.
The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana!
|11-10-17||BYU +3.5 v. UNLV||31-21||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|11-08-17||Kent State +22 v. Western Michigan||20-48||Loss||-110||17 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now.
The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread.
It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State!
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5||14-24||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami -
I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg.
While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)!
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5||28-38||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team.
The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home.
Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo!
|11-04-17||Oregon +21 v. Washington||3-38||Loss||-110||85 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +
I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window.
Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured.
Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon!
|11-04-17||Nevada +22 v. Boise State||14-41||Loss||-110||43 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada +
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada.
The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball.
Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game.
Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada!
|11-04-17||Oregon State v. California -7||Top||23-37||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal -
I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him.
Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog.
Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game.
Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal!
|11-04-17||Costal Carolina v. Arkansas -23||38-39||Loss||-109||79 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -
The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5.
While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU.
Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas!
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||114 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +
I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race.
This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number.
Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!
|11-04-17||South Florida v. Connecticut +24||37-20||Win||100||96 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn +
South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season.
I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early.
It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games.
Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut!
|11-04-17||Wake Forest +14 v. Notre Dame||37-48||Win||100||91 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest.
What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami.
Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest!
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -10.5 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||95 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -
A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real.
Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB.
Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-17||Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +
We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.
On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin.
This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3.
I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall!
|11-02-17||Idaho +18 v. Troy||21-24||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho +
I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season.
Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset.
Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho!
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||Top||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -
I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest.
Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win.
Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy!
|11-02-17||Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5||Top||14-56||Win||100||69 h 46 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg.
Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29.
Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||31 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan.
The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3.
I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan!
|10-31-17||Bowling Green v. Kent State +3||44-16||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season.
The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home.
Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State!
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||Top||26-29||Win||100||117 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee +
The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky
The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats.
Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games.
There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State -1 v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||69 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State -
I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama.
Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg.
Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State!
|10-28-17||Minnesota v. Iowa -7||10-17||Push||0||116 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -
I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss.
I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue.
The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat.
You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa!
|10-28-17||Utah -3 v. Oregon||20-41||Loss||-115||95 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Utah -
I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season.
Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one.
The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance.
We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah!
|10-28-17||TCU v. Iowa State +7||7-14||Win||100||66 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Iowa State +
I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head.
The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home.
Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State!
|10-28-17||Penn State v. Ohio State -6||38-39||Loss||-110||42 h 57 m||Show|
4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -
The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here.
I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye.
The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State!
|10-28-17||Air Force +12 v. Colorado State||Top||45-28||Win||100||113 h 50 m||Show|
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +
I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before.
I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29.
Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9 ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force!
|10-28-17||California +4 v. Colorado||28-44||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45.
I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State.
The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California!
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||110 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia +
I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much.
Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that.
As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run.
Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia!
|10-28-17||Rutgers v. Michigan -23.5||14-35||Loss||-110||100 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them.
Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game.
Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan!
|10-28-17||Buffalo University +5.5 v. Akron||20-21||Win||100||38 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER on Buffalo +
I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright.
The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program.
Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover.
Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo!
|10-27-17||Florida State -4 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-110||23 h 32 m||Show|
3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State -
As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals.
I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one.
BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State!
|10-21-17||Wyoming +14 v. Boise State||14-24||Win||100||131 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much.
There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them here.
Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming!
|10-21-17||Arizona v. California||45-44||Win||100||128 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -
Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one.
The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close.
While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona!
|10-21-17||Michigan +10 v. Penn State||13-42||Loss||-100||128 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +
This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder.
I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check.
I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan!
|10-21-17||LSU v. Ole Miss +7||Top||40-24||Loss||-105||141 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +
I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year.
The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game.
This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss!
|10-21-17||South Florida v. Tulane +11.5||34-28||Win||105||128 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Tulane +
It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4.
Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane!
|10-21-17||Southern Miss +3 v. Louisiana Tech||34-27||Win||100||91 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss +
Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons.
I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs.
Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall.
We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss!
|10-21-17||Illinois v. Minnesota -13||17-24||Loss||-110||119 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -
Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.
Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota!
|10-21-17||Indiana v. Michigan State -7||9-17||Win||100||124 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -
I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.
I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.
Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State!
|10-21-17||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5||7-59||Win||100||32 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -
This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite.
UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye.
Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech.
|10-20-17||Colorado State v. New Mexico +7||27-24||Win||105||107 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7.
New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should.
I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less.
New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico!
|10-20-17||Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3||38-10||Loss||-110||38 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State +
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor.
The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense.
The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee!
|10-19-17||Memphis +3 v. Houston||42-38||Win||100||84 h 15 m||Show|
3* Memphis/Houston Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER on Memphis +
I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Cougars. I really think Memphis is the much better team and should be favored in this contest.
I had hight hopes for this Houston team coming into the season, even after losing Herman. A big reason for that was they added in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen, who was the number recruit in his class at QB out of high school. Allen was a complete bust and quickly lost his job. Backup Kyle Postma hasn't been a whole lot better, as he's thrown 5 picks.
Clearly there's something wrong with the offense if they are only scoring 17 points against Tulsa, who they lost to 17-45. The same Tulsa team that had started 1-5 and just lost 28-62 to Navy. Overall the Cougars are averaging just 25.5 ppg, which more than 10 points less than last year's average of 35.8.
Memphis' offense ranks 14th in the country behind one the nation's most potent passing attacks that's headlined by quarterback Riley Ferguson (1,814 yards, 19-5 TD-INT ratio) and wide out Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards, 9 TDs). The Tigers defense is also much better than the numbers, as their opponents in 2017 are averaging 472 ypg. They have simply faced some dynamic offenses. I'll take the team that's going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Take Memphis!
|10-14-17||Texas A&M v. Florida -3||Top||19-17||Loss||-100||33 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -
I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain.
While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite.
On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida!
|10-14-17||Tulane -13 v. Florida International||10-23||Loss||-110||108 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulane
I like the value here with Tulane laying less than two touchdowns on the road against FIU. The Green Wave are off to a strong 3-2 start to the season with the only losses coming at Oklahoma and by just 2-points on the road to Navy. Tulane is 4-1 ATS with the only non-cover against the Sooners where they were simply outmatched.
While the Green Wave have been a very profitable bet so far, I still think this team is flying under the radar after going just 4-8 last year. The thing is, this is one of the most improved teams in the country in year two under head coach Willie Fritz and I fully expect them to continue to be a strong bet the remainder of this season.
FIU is not a good football team and like Tulane last year, are in the midst of a major rebuilding phase in the first year under head coach Butch Davis, who like Fritz has done, will get this program turned around. Just not this year.
The Golden Panthers come with an identical 3-2 record to the Green Wave, but the three wins have all come against bad teams and they struggled to win all 3. FIU held on for a 17-10 win at home over FCS foe Alcorn State, edged out a horrible Rice team 13-7 and barely squeaked by Charlotte 30-29. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS and will struggle to keep this close.
FIU's defense is no match for Tulane's elite rushing attack. The Green Wave come in 8th in the country averaging 293 ypg. FIU is giving up 170 ypg and nearly 4.5 yards/carry. The Panthers defense will be on the field a ton and simply don't have the offense to keep pace. Take Tulane!
|10-14-17||Auburn v. LSU +7||Top||23-27||Win||100||105 h 0 m||Show|
5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU
I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent.
Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country.
I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game.
LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU!
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +14||3-37||Win||100||88 h 41 m||Show|
3* Wash St/Cal Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal
I like the value here with Cal as a two touchdown home dog against the Cougars. Washington State comes into this one off two huge wins. First they knocked off USC at home on a Friday night prime time game and they followed it up by going on the road at night and beating Oregon.
I think it will be tough for them to bring that same intensity on the road a second straight week against a Cal team that has lost 3 straight and fresh off an ugly 38-7 loss at Washington, where they were outgained by 284 yards.
I wasn't surprised to see the Bears struggle in that game against a very good Washington team, as they had nothing left in the tank after playing Ole Miss, USC and Oregon the previous 3 games. They won't have any problem here getting up for a home night game against a Top 10 opponent. Cal only lost to USC at home by 10 earlier this season and while I don't see them winning this one, I think they will be able to keep it close the whole way.
Washington State comes in having covered 4 straight, but are just 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games when they come in having covered 4 out of their last 5. Cougars head coach Mike Leach is also just 4-13 ATS in his coaching career when his team is playing on the road and riding a 3 game or more winning streak. Take Cal!
|10-11-17||South Alabama +17 v. Troy||19-8||Win||100||37 h 9 m||Show|
4* S Alabama/Troy Sun Belt VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama +
I like the value here with the Jaguars in this in-state rivalry matchup against Troy. This line has been inflated big time on the Trojans, as they come in off arguably their biggest win in program history in a 24-21 outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog. That puts Troy into a big time letdown spot here and that should be more than enough for South Alabama to keep this within the number.
Keep in mind that Troy had started out 0-4 ATS before they covered against LSU, as they came into this season getting a ton of respect from the books after last year's 10-win season. The books know the public will jump right back on them after a big win, so we are getting the best price here on South Alabama.
The numbers on both sides of the ball don't look great for the Jaguars, but they have played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech.
South Alabama head coach Joey Jones has a history of getting his team to deliver against the spread in this spot, as the Jaguars are 13-4 ATS in road game in the first half of the season since he took over at South Alabama.
Troy on the other hand hasn't performed well against bad teams, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take South Alabama!
|10-07-17||Arizona +7 v. Colorado||Top||45-42||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona +
I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright.
The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one.
The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year.
I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball.
The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona!
|10-07-17||SMU v. Houston -6.5||22-35||Win||100||50 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Houston -
I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars laying less than a touchdown against the Mustangs. Keep in mind Houston was a 23-point road favorite over SMU a year ago. The Mustangs won that game and I can assure you the 15 returning starters and other lettermen for Houston haven't forgot about the feeling of losing that game.
The Cougars aren't going to let the Mustangs upset them two years in a row and I actually think they win this game going away. A big reason this spread isn't double-digits, is because you have SMU coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The public loves to jump on these teams who cover every game early and that's when the books really turn the odds against those teams.
Another thing with SMU, who is 4-1 SU, is they have played a very easy schedule. Their 4 wins are against the likes of SF Austin, North Texas, Arkansas St and UConn. The loss where they covered was a 20-point defeat against TCU, where they were catching 22.
Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar, even after a 3-1 start, as most people just wrote off this team after they lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas. The Cougars offense should have a field day here against a really bad SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 128th in the country against the pass, giving up 325 ypg, so expect a number of big plays and quick scores for the Cougars. Take Houston!
|10-07-17||Georgia State v. Costal Carolina +2||27-21||Loss||-110||79 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Coastal Carolina +
I'm taking the Chanticleers as a short home dog Saturday against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina is in the first year as a member of the Sun Belt and are more the capable of competing against the bottom tier of that conference. That's were Georgia State lies, as the Panthers lost at home to Tennessee State earlier this season.
This is also a great matchup for the Chanticleers, who featured a run first offense, which comes in ranked 38th at 207.5 ypg. Georgia State is 80th against the run allowing 166.0 ypg and are giving up 5 yards/carry.
This is also an offense that Coastal Carolina's defense can contain. The Panthers are 113th in rushing at 106 ypg and a mere 78th in passing. They rank 115 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and 116th in scoring at just 19 ppg. Take Coastal Carolina!
|10-07-17||Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion +4.5||58-28||Loss||-110||95 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Old Dominion +
The books have the wrong team favored here. This line is a result of Old Dominion coming in off a couple of ugly losses to UNC and Virginia Tech, while FAU enters off a 38-20 blowout win at home over Middle Tennessee. This Owls team is one the public has been on early, as they look to back Lane Kiffin and his strong coaching staff.
The thing is, the Monarchs won convincingly last year 42-24 and had more than 600 yards of total offense. They were also a 8.5-point favorite on the road for that contest, which is further evidence they shouldn't be a dog at home.
The Monarchs have also been a covering machine against teams like FAU that own a losing record. Old Dominion is a perfect 6-0 the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a losing record and have won these matchups by an average of 20 ppg. Take Old Dominion!