|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||10-30||Loss||-105||77 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching a touchdown against division rival New Orleans. It's been a miserable start for the Bucs, who had such high expectations coming into the season, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Tampa just yet and expect one of their better efforts of the season in this one.
We are also getting a big number here as the books have no choice but to inflate this number on the Saints with them coming in having won and covered in 5 straight games. It's been a good situation to fade New Orleans in the past, as they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Bucs are also a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 5 or 6 out of their last 7.
We also find a great system in play backing the Bucs, as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 121-73 (62%) against the spread in the month of November dating back to 1983. Take Tampa Bay!
|11-05-17||Ravens v. Titans -3||20-23||Push||0||63 h 34 m||Show|
4* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans -
I like the value here with Tennessee laying a short number at home against the Ravens. Last time Baltimore took the field they laid a 40-0 beating on the Dolphins, but Miami's offense was without starting their starting QB and already one of the worst offensive units in the league. That was also a home game on Thursday, where the home team has a massive advantage on short rest.
Prior to that the Ravens were just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Raiders without Carr. The losses during this stretch weren't good and I just don't see them being able to hang with the Titans, who return from their bye playing with a ton of confidence after winning each of their last two.
Baltimore is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home win by 21+ points and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Titans have also had a great home field edge of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Tennessee!
|11-04-17||Oregon +21 v. Washington||3-38||Loss||-110||85 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +
I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window.
Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured.
Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon!
|11-04-17||Nevada +22 v. Boise State||14-41||Loss||-110||43 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada +
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada.
The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball.
Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game.
Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada!
|11-04-17||Oregon State v. California -7||Top||23-37||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal -
I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him.
Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog.
Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game.
Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal!
|11-04-17||Costal Carolina v. Arkansas -23||38-39||Loss||-109||79 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -
The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5.
While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU.
Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas!
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||114 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +
I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race.
This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number.
Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!
|11-04-17||South Florida v. Connecticut +24||37-20||Win||100||96 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn +
South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season.
I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early.
It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games.
Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut!
|11-04-17||Wake Forest +14 v. Notre Dame||37-48||Win||100||91 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest.
What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami.
Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest!
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -10.5 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||95 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -
A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real.
Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB.
Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-17||Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +
We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.
On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin.
This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3.
I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall!
|11-02-17||Idaho +18 v. Troy||21-24||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho +
I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season.
Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset.
Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho!
|11-02-17||Bills v. Jets +3.5||21-34||Win||100||55 h 8 m||Show|
4* Bills/Jets TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Jets +
I'll take the points here with New York at home, as I think the Jets win this game outright. NY has been playing better than anyone anticipated and as a result have been a covering machine here of late. Since getting blown out on the road against the Raiders in Week 2, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. They could just as easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as all 3 losses came by 7 points or less.
This game has a little extra meaning for the Jets, who lost at Buffalo 12-21 back in Week 1. While the Bills were able to pull away late for the cover as a 7-point favorite, that game was much closer than the final score and could have easily went the other way. With Buffalo faced with the tough task of playing on the road with a short week of prep. The Bills are also in a bit of a letdown spot here after that big home win over the Raiders and I'm still not convinced they are as good as their 5-2 record. Neither does Vegas, as Buffalo is still at 40 to 1 to win it all (same odds as Packers, Lions, Titans, Jaguars).
Bills have ran over their last 2 opponents on the ground, but are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after rushing for 150+ yards in each of their last 2 games. They Jets are a solid 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 homes games. Take New York!
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||Top||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -
I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest.
Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win.
Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy!
|11-02-17||Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5||Top||14-56||Win||100||69 h 46 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg.
Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29.
Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||31 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan.
The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3.
I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan!
|10-31-17||Bowling Green v. Kent State +3||44-16||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season.
The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home.
Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State!
|10-30-17||Broncos +7 v. Chiefs||19-29||Loss||-111||21 h 40 m||Show|
3* Broncos/Chiefs MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Broncos +
I like the value here with the Broncos catching a touchdown here against the Chiefs. While KC has been the better team to this point, the Chiefs have dropped two straight and these division games have a way of being closer than expected regardless of how a team is playing.
I think Denver's defense is going to be the difference here, as I think they got the weapons to keep KC's offense in check. They have been one of the best in the league against the run and are loaded with talent in the secondary. On the flip side of this, opposing teams have had their way with this Kansas City defense of late and I think the loss of Eric Berry is really being felt, as they just don't have anyone to matchup with opposing tight ends. Just look at how the Raiders offense picked apart this defense and went right back to struggling against the Bills on Sunday.
Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game, while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 off a SU loss. Take Denver!
|10-29-17||Steelers v. Lions +3||20-15||Loss||-107||116 h 4 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Lions SNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lions +
I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have a huge scheduling advantage here coming off their bye and are going to be extremely motivated to get a win sitting at 3-3 and having lost their last two. Note that Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye.
It's well documented that the Steelers offense doesn't produce at the same level on the road. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. In the Steelers two losses this season they failed to reach 100 yards. The only time they won with less than 100 on the ground was Week 1 at Cleveland and they barely snuck out a 21-18 win. The strength of the Lions defense is their ability to stop the run. They come in 7th in the league, giving up just 94.3 ypg and have held opponents under 90 yards in 4 of their 6 games this season.
While Pittsburgh's offense gets worse on the road, Detroit is a team that seems to alway put up points at home. The Lions are doing just that in 2017, scoring just over 28 ppg at home. As good as the Steelers defense has been playing, I think the Lions are able to do enough here offensively to get the win. Take Detroit!
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2||Top||14-34||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills -
Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders.
The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season.
Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles.
Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo!
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||Top||26-29||Win||100||117 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee +
The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky
The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats.
Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games.
There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State -1 v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||69 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State -
I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama.
Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg.
Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State!
|10-28-17||Minnesota v. Iowa -7||10-17||Push||0||116 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -
I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss.
I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue.
The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat.
You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa!
|10-28-17||Utah -3 v. Oregon||20-41||Loss||-115||95 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Utah -
I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season.
Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one.
The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance.
We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah!
|10-28-17||TCU v. Iowa State +7||7-14||Win||100||66 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Iowa State +
I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head.
The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home.
Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State!
|10-28-17||Penn State v. Ohio State -6||38-39||Loss||-110||42 h 57 m||Show|
4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -
The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here.
I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye.
The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State!
|10-28-17||Air Force +12 v. Colorado State||Top||45-28||Win||100||113 h 50 m||Show|
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +
I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before.
I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29.
Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9 ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force!
|10-28-17||California +4 v. Colorado||28-44||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45.
I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State.
The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California!
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||110 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia +
I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much.
Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that.
As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run.
Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia!
|10-28-17||Rutgers v. Michigan -23.5||14-35||Loss||-110||100 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them.
Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game.
Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan!
|10-28-17||Buffalo University +5.5 v. Akron||20-21||Win||100||38 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER on Buffalo +
I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright.
The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program.
Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover.
Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo!
|10-27-17||Florida State -4 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-110||23 h 32 m||Show|
3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State -
As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals.
I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one.
BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State!
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles -4.5||24-34||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Eagles MNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles -
Washington played the Eagles tough at home back in Week 1, but injuries have really taken it's toll on the Redskins defense since that game. They will be without Josh Norman and rookie defensive line Jonathan Allen, who played a big role in the revamped Washington front on that side of the ball.
The Redskins could also be without a few other key defensive players, but those two are going to be tough to replace against a Philadelphia offense that has only gotten better since these two teams played in the season opener. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive front is one of the best in the league and could be getting a big boost in the secondary with the possible return of corner Ronald Darby.
Factor in the home field advantage here for the Eagles, which is going to be at it's highest during the regular season with this being a prime time showdown on Monday Night Football. You also can't discount the scheduling edge Philadelphia has. The Eagles got a few extra days to prepare and recover after playing on Thursday last week. Washington won't go away easy, but the Eagles should be able to win here by at least a touchdown. Take Philadelphia!
|10-22-17||Falcons v. Patriots -3||Top||7-23||Win||100||150 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats -
I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit.
If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen.
Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England!
|10-22-17||Bengals +6 v. Steelers||14-29||Loss||-110||149 h 48 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bengals +
Cincinnati is not getting near enough respect here against the Steelers. The Bengals got off to that miserable 0-3 start, where the offense couldn't get anything going in their first two games. I still think they are getting treated like that team, especially against a team the public loves to back in the Steelers.
Cincinnati could have easily won Week 3 at Green Bay, as they had a 14-poitn lead at the half and were up a touchdown in the 4th quarter of a 24-27 defeat. They bounced back with a 24-point blowout win on the road against the Browns and followed it up with a 20-16 victory over the Bills. The Bengals defense is the real deal and come in 2nd in the league giving up just 16.6 ppg. Keep in mind they are the only defense so far to keep Texans rookie Deshaun Watson in check. They limited him to just 125 passing yards, which is his worst passing yards total by 100 yards. He also didn't throw a TD against them and has thrown at least 2 in every other start (15 total).
I think that defense will make life miserable for the Steelers, as they will be able to keep Bell in check and force a struggling Ben Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. Pittsburgh D will keep them in it, but this should come right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals won outright. Take Cincinnati!
|10-22-17||Seahawks -5 v. Giants||24-7||Win||100||142 h 47 m||Show|
4* NFL Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Seahawks -
I'll gladly back Seattle laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Giants. Prior to New York's surprising win at Denver last week on Monday Night Football they were expected to be more than a touchdown underdog in this game. I just didn't see enough from the Giants offense to think this team is going to be able transform into a better team after losing their top two wide outs in Beckham Jr and Marshall.
It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that won them that game, as Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They had just 266 total yards and 12 first downs.
This is the time of year where Seattle turns it up a notch and that defense should have no problem keeping NY in check, as the Seahawks have only allowed more than 18 points once this season. Russell Wilson and the offense should be able to provide enough fire-power coming off a bye to win this by double-digits. Take Seattle!
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears +3||Top||3-17||Win||105||145 h 23 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it.
I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game.
The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago!
|10-22-17||Jets v. Dolphins -3||28-31||Push||0||142 h 21 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins -
I believe now is the time to sell on the Jets after covering a big number at home against the Patriots, which was their 4th straight cover. New York might be 3-3, but they aren't a good team. They have a road win over the winless Browns and home wins over Miami and Jacksonville. They laid it on the Dolphins in Week 3, beating them 20-6. I think they are going to have a tough time getting up for this one. They are in a big letdown spot after facing New England, who is the one team they want to beat more than any other.
Miami finally showed some life offensively in the 2nd half of last week's 20-17 win at Atlanta, scoring all 20 in the final two periods. If the offense gets going, this team is going to be one to watch out of. The Dolphins haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season and that includes their 20-0 loss to the Saints in London. I think that unit will take it personal here against the Jets at home.
If Miami's offense shows up like I think it will, this could be over in a hurry. Either way they should be able to win here by at least a TD. Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 revenging a road loss, while the Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a division opponent. Take Miami!
|10-22-17||Jaguars v. Colts +3||27-0||Loss||-100||110 h 43 m||Show|
4* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts +
This one is begging for you to take the Jaguars laying only a field goal on the road against the Colts. Indy isn't a team the public wants nothing to do with and certainly aren't going to want to back them only catching 3-points. That has me backing Indianapolis in this one.
The Colts are just 2-4 with their only wins coming against the Browns and 49ers, but have been competitive in every game outside of the opening week loss to the Rams. They lost 18-46 to Seattle, but that was a 1-score game with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They also lost by 14 last week at Tennessee in a game they led by double-digits in the 2nd half.
People are getting excited about Jacksonville. While they aren't as bad as they have been, they still are a serious threat in the AFC. The defense has it's moments, but the offense has been really bad. Blake Bortles is doing just enough to not get benched. The rushing attack is great, but you have to be able to throw the ball with success to be taken seriously in this league, especially on the road.
Colts have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are 8-1 in their last 9 after a game where they were outgained by 100+ yards. Take Indianapolis!
|10-21-17||Wyoming +14 v. Boise State||14-24||Win||100||131 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much.
There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them here.
Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming!
|10-21-17||Arizona v. California||45-44||Win||100||128 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -
Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one.
The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close.
While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona!
|10-21-17||Michigan +10 v. Penn State||13-42||Loss||-100||128 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +
This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder.
I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check.
I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan!
|10-21-17||LSU v. Ole Miss +7||Top||40-24||Loss||-105||141 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +
I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year.
The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game.
This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss!
|10-21-17||South Florida v. Tulane +11.5||34-28||Win||105||128 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Tulane +
It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4.
Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane!
|10-21-17||Southern Miss +3 v. Louisiana Tech||34-27||Win||100||91 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss +
Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons.
I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs.
Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall.
We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss!
|10-21-17||Illinois v. Minnesota -13||17-24||Loss||-110||119 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -
Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.
Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota!
|10-21-17||Indiana v. Michigan State -7||9-17||Win||100||124 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -
I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.
I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.
Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State!
|10-21-17||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5||7-59||Win||100||32 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -
This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite.
UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye.
Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech.
|10-20-17||Colorado State v. New Mexico +7||27-24||Win||105||107 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7.
New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should.
I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less.
New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico!
|10-20-17||Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3||38-10||Loss||-110||38 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State +
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor.
The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense.
The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee!
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders +3||Top||30-31||Win||100||74 h 4 m||Show|
5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +
I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs.
Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books.
Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team
Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland!
|10-19-17||Memphis +3 v. Houston||42-38||Win||100||84 h 15 m||Show|
3* Memphis/Houston Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER on Memphis +
I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Cougars. I really think Memphis is the much better team and should be favored in this contest.
I had hight hopes for this Houston team coming into the season, even after losing Herman. A big reason for that was they added in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen, who was the number recruit in his class at QB out of high school. Allen was a complete bust and quickly lost his job. Backup Kyle Postma hasn't been a whole lot better, as he's thrown 5 picks.
Clearly there's something wrong with the offense if they are only scoring 17 points against Tulsa, who they lost to 17-45. The same Tulsa team that had started 1-5 and just lost 28-62 to Navy. Overall the Cougars are averaging just 25.5 ppg, which more than 10 points less than last year's average of 35.8.
Memphis' offense ranks 14th in the country behind one the nation's most potent passing attacks that's headlined by quarterback Riley Ferguson (1,814 yards, 19-5 TD-INT ratio) and wide out Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards, 9 TDs). The Tigers defense is also much better than the numbers, as their opponents in 2017 are averaging 472 ypg. They have simply faced some dynamic offenses. I'll take the team that's going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Take Memphis!
|10-16-17||Colts +7.5 v. Titans||22-36||Loss||-106||22 h 5 m||Show|
3* Colts/Titans MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts +
I like the value here with the Colts catching over a touchdown against the Titans on Monday Night Football. Tennessee will have starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, but I don't think that hamstring is 100% just yet. One of things that makes Mariota so good is his mobility and without it I think the Titans offense struggles to do enough here to pull away from a Colts team that has continued to play hard without Andrew Luck.
The Colts offense was put in a difficult spot to start the season, having to trade for Jacoby Brissett right before the year started. They looked a lot better last time out against the 49ers, piling on 447 yards of total offense and 25 first downs. I think this unit will continue to play well going forward, especially against a sub-par defense like the Titans, which ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass.
Tennessee is a miserable 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against other AFC teams, 2-13 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs a team that allows 24+ points/game. Take Indianapolis!
|10-15-17||Giants +12 v. Broncos||23-10||Win||100||58 h 4 m||Show|
4* Giants/Broncos ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +
The betting public is lining up to take the Broncos here at home on Sunday Night Football against a injury-plagued Giants team and it's resulted in a drastically inflated line that has created too much value on New York to pass up.
The total here is just 39, so oddsmakers are expecting points to be hard to come by for both teams. That only adds value to this double-digit spread and the Giants ability to keep this close enough to cover.
As bad as it looks for the Giants with all the injuries at wide receiver and the poor offensive line play, this team has found a way to remain competitive in their surprising 0-5 start. Eli Manning is no longer in his prime, but still an above-average QB that will make some plays here regardless of who he has to work with.
The bigger key here is the Broncos don't have the offensive fire-power to be laying this many points. Denver has scored just 16 in their last 2 games. They won their last game against the Raiders by a final of 16-10 and the week before lost to the Bills 16-26. New York still has a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the Giants stop unit to show up in a big way here in a prime time game with no body giving them a chance to win this game. Take New York!
|10-15-17||49ers v. Redskins -9.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-105||134 h 16 m||Show|
5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins -
I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers.
Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one.
As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early.
San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington!
|10-15-17||Lions v. Saints -4||38-52||Win||100||134 h 42 m||Show|
4* Lions/Saints NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Saints -
I don't feel the Saints are getting the respect they deserve here at home coming off their bye. New Orleans started off 0-2, but that wasn't a big surprise. They had to open the season on the road on Monday Night Football against the Vikings and they caught the Patriots, who were coming off that ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and NE had extra time to prepare. The Saints have responded in a big way. First winning in convincing fashion on the road against a very good Carolina team 34-13 and then most recently a 20-0 shutout win over the Dolphins in London.
A big reason for the quick turnaround has been the play of a vastly improved defense and given all the young talent they possess on that side of the ball, there's every reason to think they can keep playing well. The key here is they catch the Lions at the right time. Detroit is banged up and it starts with quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with an ankle injury. He's listed as probable, but his mobility figures to be hampered. At the same time, the offensive line for Detroit is a mess right now. They have given up a ridiculous 12 sacks over their last 2 games (6 each) and figure to struggle again.
It wasn't that long ago the Saints had one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and there's a big emphasis on turning the Superdome back to a place where opposing teams fear coming to play.
New Orleans is an impressive 12-4 ATS under head coach Sean Payton after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and 30-10 under Payton vs high-scoring teams that come in averaging 24+ ppg. The Saints are also an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a bye and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a cover last time out. Take New Orleans!
|10-15-17||Packers v. Vikings +3||Top||10-23||Win||100||51 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings +
Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost.
Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable.
Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg.
I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright.
Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota!
|10-14-17||Texas A&M v. Florida -3||Top||19-17||Loss||-100||33 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -
I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain.
While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite.
On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida!
|10-14-17||Tulane -13 v. Florida International||10-23||Loss||-110||108 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulane
I like the value here with Tulane laying less than two touchdowns on the road against FIU. The Green Wave are off to a strong 3-2 start to the season with the only losses coming at Oklahoma and by just 2-points on the road to Navy. Tulane is 4-1 ATS with the only non-cover against the Sooners where they were simply outmatched.
While the Green Wave have been a very profitable bet so far, I still think this team is flying under the radar after going just 4-8 last year. The thing is, this is one of the most improved teams in the country in year two under head coach Willie Fritz and I fully expect them to continue to be a strong bet the remainder of this season.
FIU is not a good football team and like Tulane last year, are in the midst of a major rebuilding phase in the first year under head coach Butch Davis, who like Fritz has done, will get this program turned around. Just not this year.
The Golden Panthers come with an identical 3-2 record to the Green Wave, but the three wins have all come against bad teams and they struggled to win all 3. FIU held on for a 17-10 win at home over FCS foe Alcorn State, edged out a horrible Rice team 13-7 and barely squeaked by Charlotte 30-29. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS and will struggle to keep this close.
FIU's defense is no match for Tulane's elite rushing attack. The Green Wave come in 8th in the country averaging 293 ypg. FIU is giving up 170 ypg and nearly 4.5 yards/carry. The Panthers defense will be on the field a ton and simply don't have the offense to keep pace. Take Tulane!
|10-14-17||Auburn v. LSU +7||Top||23-27||Win||100||105 h 0 m||Show|
5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU
I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent.
Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country.
I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game.
LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU!
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +14||3-37||Win||100||88 h 41 m||Show|
3* Wash St/Cal Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal
I like the value here with Cal as a two touchdown home dog against the Cougars. Washington State comes into this one off two huge wins. First they knocked off USC at home on a Friday night prime time game and they followed it up by going on the road at night and beating Oregon.
I think it will be tough for them to bring that same intensity on the road a second straight week against a Cal team that has lost 3 straight and fresh off an ugly 38-7 loss at Washington, where they were outgained by 284 yards.
I wasn't surprised to see the Bears struggle in that game against a very good Washington team, as they had nothing left in the tank after playing Ole Miss, USC and Oregon the previous 3 games. They won't have any problem here getting up for a home night game against a Top 10 opponent. Cal only lost to USC at home by 10 earlier this season and while I don't see them winning this one, I think they will be able to keep it close the whole way.
Washington State comes in having covered 4 straight, but are just 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games when they come in having covered 4 out of their last 5. Cougars head coach Mike Leach is also just 4-13 ATS in his coaching career when his team is playing on the road and riding a 3 game or more winning streak. Take Cal!
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||35 h 58 m||Show|
5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers -
I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts.
Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here.
The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover.
When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina!
|10-11-17||South Alabama +17 v. Troy||19-8||Win||100||37 h 9 m||Show|
4* S Alabama/Troy Sun Belt VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama +
I like the value here with the Jaguars in this in-state rivalry matchup against Troy. This line has been inflated big time on the Trojans, as they come in off arguably their biggest win in program history in a 24-21 outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog. That puts Troy into a big time letdown spot here and that should be more than enough for South Alabama to keep this within the number.
Keep in mind that Troy had started out 0-4 ATS before they covered against LSU, as they came into this season getting a ton of respect from the books after last year's 10-win season. The books know the public will jump right back on them after a big win, so we are getting the best price here on South Alabama.
The numbers on both sides of the ball don't look great for the Jaguars, but they have played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech.
South Alabama head coach Joey Jones has a history of getting his team to deliver against the spread in this spot, as the Jaguars are 13-4 ATS in road game in the first half of the season since he took over at South Alabama.
Troy on the other hand hasn't performed well against bad teams, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take South Alabama!
|10-09-17||Vikings v. Bears +4||20-17||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* Vikings/Bears MNF ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bears +
Chicago is not getting near the respect they deserve here at home against a division rival. Even with the Vikings getting back their starting QB in Sam Bradford and the Bears turning to rookie Mitchell Trubisky.
While Bradford is an upgrade over backup Case Keenum, I don't think it's as significant as people think. The even bigger issue is the Vikings offense took a major hit with the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook. He was averaging 4.8 yards/carry with 4 runs of 20+ yards. Keenum has the next best average at a mere 3.0 yards/carry. Backups Latavius Murray (2.7 ypc) and Jerick McKinnon (2.6 ypc) are both under 3.0 yards.
That's going to let Chicago's defense focus on taking away the passing game and putting pressure on Bradford. To a lot of people's surprise, the Bears come in ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 306.3 ypg, including the 8th ranks run defense.
What's really killed the Bears in their 1-3 start was the play of Glennon at QB. I absolutely love the move to Trubisky, who showed some real positive signs in the preseason. He can't be any worse than what Glennon was providing the offense and if he plays well this unit could take off with those two talented backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
I'll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect the Bears to win this game outright. Take Chicago!
|10-08-17||Chiefs v. Texans +1||42-34||Loss||-105||52 h 21 m||Show|
4* Chiefs/Texans SNF 'NO BRAINER' on Texans +
Big time value here with the Texans getting points at home in prime time on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs are getting a ton of love from the books right now, as they are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and are a perfect 4-0 ATS. The public has fallen in love with this team and now is the time to look the other way.
If Houston was still starting Tom Savage, this wouldn't be a play. Deshaun Watson has finally got the Texans offense producing at the level needed to be taken seriously. The last few years the defense has had to carry this team. Now they are playing more complimentary football and shouldn't be a dog on their home field.
Not only are the Chiefs overvalued right now, this is a bad spot for KC, who is playing on short rest after the big win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Note the Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Sunday after MNF.
KC is also dealing with some big injuries. Three key guys who were questionable are out. That includes two interior starting linemen (not good against this Texans front) and one of their best pass rushers in Dee Ford. Ford is a big loss for a defense that is already playing without All-Pro safety Eric Berry. This defense has some holes and will allow teams to move the ball on them. I just see enough big plays by Watson and the offense at home. Take Houston!
|10-08-17||Bills v. Bengals -3||16-20||Win||100||45 h 40 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bengals -
We are getting great value here with Cincinnati as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Bills on Sunday. On one side we have a Buffalo team that is way overvalued right now after back to back wins over the Broncos and Falcons. The most recent coming as a 8-point dog in Atlanta. The Bills have quickly went from a team the public was looking to fade to one they want to back.
As for the Bengals, this team couldn't have looked much worse in the first two weeks of the season, as the offense failed to score a single touchdown in those two games and both of them were at home. The thing is, the talent is there and they have looked a heck of a lot better since firing their OC. They really should have won in Green Bay in Week 3 and last week cruised to a 24-point win on the road against a division rival in the Browns.
Defense has really saved the Bills in their 3-1 start and I think they have a tough time here off that huge road win over the Falcons and they have to be running on fumes with this their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Buffalo also lost a key piece to their defense in linebacker Ramon Hunter and could e without starting corner E.J. Gaines here.
Cincinnati's defense has been playing great and should have no trouble stopping this Bills attack. Bengals should have the much easier time moving the ball and simply aren't getting enough respect here at home. Take Cincinnati!
|10-08-17||Panthers +3 v. Lions||Top||27-24||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers +
I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions.
Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media.
This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game.
Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina!
|10-07-17||Arizona +7 v. Colorado||Top||45-42||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona +
I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright.
The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one.
The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year.
I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball.
The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona!
|10-07-17||SMU v. Houston -6.5||22-35||Win||100||50 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Houston -
I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars laying less than a touchdown against the Mustangs. Keep in mind Houston was a 23-point road favorite over SMU a year ago. The Mustangs won that game and I can assure you the 15 returning starters and other lettermen for Houston haven't forgot about the feeling of losing that game.
The Cougars aren't going to let the Mustangs upset them two years in a row and I actually think they win this game going away. A big reason this spread isn't double-digits, is because you have SMU coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The public loves to jump on these teams who cover every game early and that's when the books really turn the odds against those teams.
Another thing with SMU, who is 4-1 SU, is they have played a very easy schedule. Their 4 wins are against the likes of SF Austin, North Texas, Arkansas St and UConn. The loss where they covered was a 20-point defeat against TCU, where they were catching 22.
Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar, even after a 3-1 start, as most people just wrote off this team after they lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas. The Cougars offense should have a field day here against a really bad SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 128th in the country against the pass, giving up 325 ypg, so expect a number of big plays and quick scores for the Cougars. Take Houston!
|10-07-17||Georgia State v. Costal Carolina +2||27-21||Loss||-110||79 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Coastal Carolina +
I'm taking the Chanticleers as a short home dog Saturday against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina is in the first year as a member of the Sun Belt and are more the capable of competing against the bottom tier of that conference. That's were Georgia State lies, as the Panthers lost at home to Tennessee State earlier this season.
This is also a great matchup for the Chanticleers, who featured a run first offense, which comes in ranked 38th at 207.5 ypg. Georgia State is 80th against the run allowing 166.0 ypg and are giving up 5 yards/carry.
This is also an offense that Coastal Carolina's defense can contain. The Panthers are 113th in rushing at 106 ypg and a mere 78th in passing. They rank 115 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and 116th in scoring at just 19 ppg. Take Coastal Carolina!
|10-07-17||Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion +4.5||58-28||Loss||-110||95 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Old Dominion +
The books have the wrong team favored here. This line is a result of Old Dominion coming in off a couple of ugly losses to UNC and Virginia Tech, while FAU enters off a 38-20 blowout win at home over Middle Tennessee. This Owls team is one the public has been on early, as they look to back Lane Kiffin and his strong coaching staff.
The thing is, the Monarchs won convincingly last year 42-24 and had more than 600 yards of total offense. They were also a 8.5-point favorite on the road for that contest, which is further evidence they shouldn't be a dog at home.
The Monarchs have also been a covering machine against teams like FAU that own a losing record. Old Dominion is a perfect 6-0 the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a losing record and have won these matchups by an average of 20 ppg. Take Old Dominion!
|10-07-17||UL-Lafayette +7.5 v. Idaho||21-16||Win||100||94 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Lafayette +
I like the value here with the Ragin' Cajuns catching over a touchdown here against the Vandals. Lafayette isn't going to overlook Idaho. In fact, they will be out for revenge from last year's double-digit loss at home.
Last time out the Ragin' Cajuns lost at home to ULM as a 4-point favorite and that puts them in a very profitable spot. Louisiana is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a home favorite. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games under head coach Hudspeth after playing the previous game against a conference opponent.
I look for Lafayette offensive attack to the be the difference in this one. The Ragin' Cajuns come in ranking in the top 60 in the country in both rushing and passing and are 40th overall. Idaho ranks outside the Top 65 in both rushing and passing and 82nd overall.
I actually think we could see the Ragin' Cajuns win the game outright, which is why I think there's such great value with this spread. Take UL-Lafayette!
|10-07-17||Western Michigan -6.5 v. Buffalo||71-68||Loss||-115||100 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Small Conference 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Western Michigan -
We are getting some big time value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against the Bulls. I believe it's a direct result of Buffalo coming into this one with a perfect 5-0 record against the spread. While Western Michigan has won 3 straight, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, failing to cover against bad teams like Idaho and Wagner.
The thing is, the Broncos are coming off an excellent showing in their conference opener, as they destroyed Ball State 55-3. I know this program lost a great coach in P.J. Fleck, as well as great talent from last year's team, but there's still a ton of really good players on this roster and I fully expect them to defend their MAC title this season.
Plenty of reason to believe the Broncos will be able to move the ball against the Bulls defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 36th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 209.0 ypg, which is pretty impressive given two of their games were against USC and Michigan State. Buffalo has the 109th ranked run defense, allowing teams 208.8 ypg and that's with their toughest opponent to date being Minnesota.
Note the Bulls also have the 88th ranked offense in the country against that soft schedule, while the Broncos have the 41st ranked defense. Western Michigan won 38-0 last year and while I don't foresee another shutout on the road, I think they have no problem here winning by double-digits. Take Western Michigan!
|10-07-17||LSU +3 v. Florida||Top||17-16||Win||100||15 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Afternoon ATS 'VEGAS INSIDER' on LSU +
I really like this spot for the Tigers, who are coming off that embarrassing loss at home to Troy last week. The perception couldn't be any worse on LSU, yet they are only a short dog on the road against a Florida team that is sitting at 3-1 with a 3-0 record in the SEC. That tells me the books also like the Tigers here, as the public will lineup to take the Gators at this price.
There's no excuse for losing to a Sun Belt team, but LSU was without one of their best players in RB Derrius Guice, who is expected to be back on the field for this game. I think he has a big game here against an overrated Florida defense, which comes in ranked 60th against the run and 82nd against the pass.
I also think the Gators are overvalued right now, as they could very easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1, winning on last second plays against both Tennessee and Kentucky. You also have to factor in the injury/suspension situation for Florida. That makes it tough to compete with a team like LSU, who I still think is one of the better teams in the country.
Florida is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a game in which they covered the spread. LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 27-13 in their last 40 road games after a loss. Take LSU!
|10-07-17||Penn State -14 v. Northwestern||31-7||Win||100||89 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Penn State -
I know this seems like a big number for the Nittany Lions to be laying against what many expected to be a strong Northwestern team, but the fact of the matter is, Penn State is even better than anticipated and the Wildcats are a lot worse.
Northwestern's only two wins this season are against the likes of Nevada and Bowling Green. Neither one of those teams have won a game so far in 2017 and they trailed Nevada 7-17 at the half. The Wildcats were absolutely dominated in a 41-17 loss at Duke and trailed Wisconsin 31-10 with less than 10 minutes to play.
The Badgers play a very physical style of football, which is going to make it that much tougher on Northwestern to bounce back here at home against one of most dynamic offenses the Big Ten has to offer. Look for Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley to have another monster game here.
The big key here is the defense for Penn State and it's ability to shutdown the Wildcats struggling offensive attack. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg.
Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). Take Penn State in a blowout!
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +4.5||Top||25-39||Win||100||57 h 42 m||Show|
5* Lou/NC State ACC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on NC State +
I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching points at home against the Cardinals on Thursday. I actually NC State is the better team in this matchup and should be the ones favored. The thing is the public is drawn to Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, so the books have no choice but to inflate their lines.
The Cardinals haven't really been all that impressive so far. They were fortunate to leave with a win over Purdue in their opener, only led UNC by 1-point going into the 4th quarter and were absolutely dominated by Clemson at home. Jackson is still putting up video game type numbers, but the offense as a whole hasn't been as good and the defense is a lot worse. He really struggled against the dominant defensive front of Clemson and NC State has quite a front of their own, who will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last year's 13-54 loss at Louisville.
The defensive numbers are better than they actually are because of their last two games against Kent State and Murray State, where they allowed a combined 230 total yards. This defense allowed 293 yards passing to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. NC State and junior QB Ryan Finley come in with the 24th ranked passing offense in the country at 293.0 ypg. Look for the Wolfpack to big up some big plays through the air that should allow some separation. Take NC State!
|10-04-17||Arkansas State -7 v. Georgia Southern||43-25||Win||100||25 h 25 m||Show|
4* Ark ST/Ga Sou Sun Belt 'ATS ANNIHILATOR' on Arkansas State -
With Red Wolves starting quarterback Justice Hansen upgraded to probable, I don't see this one being close. Georgia Southern is 0-3 and while two of those losses came at Auburn and at Indiana, they also lost 12-22 at home to New Hampshire out of the FCS. The Eagles have scored a whopping 46 points in their first 3 games. I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively to keep this one competitive, even at home.
Arkansas State on the other hand is averaging 35 ppg, having scored 36 in a near upset at Nebraska. The strength of the Red Wolves offensive assault is Hansen and the passing game, which ranks 9th in the country at 351.7 ypg. Not only will they be able to attack the Eagles thru the air, but Georgia Southern's run defense has been atrocious. They are giving up 5.9 yards/carry and 259 yards/game on the ground.
The Eagles passing attack ranks 129th out of 130 FBS teams at just 78.0 ypg. That's going to make it really tough on them to play from behind and should eliminate the back door cover. Georgia Southern lost 17-52 last time out to the Hoosiers and are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a loss by more than 20 points. The Eagles are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games an 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a conference opponent. Take Arkansas State!
|10-02-17||Redskins +7 v. Chiefs||20-29||Loss||-110||14 h 45 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Chiefs MNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Redskins +
I like the value here with Washington catching a touchdown against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Kansas City is getting a ton of respect early on and considered by some to be the best in the NFL, at least in the popular media rankings like ESPN. Oddsmakers aren't nearly as high on this team, who going into Week 4 were tied with 4 other teams with the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl.
I'm not saying the Chiefs aren't a good team, just that this is too many points for them to be laying against a quality opponent like the Redskins. Washington is 2-1 with their only loss coming to division rival Philadelphia, who is off to a strong 3-1 start. Their win at the Rams looks a heck of a lot better after LA just knocked off the Cowboys in Dallas. They also completely dominated the Raiders a week ago, beating Oakland 27-10 with a ridiculous 472 to 128 edge in total yards.
The Chiefs defense is one that's going to let Washington move the football up and down the field. Kansas City ranks a mere 20th against the run and 25th against the pass and are without one of their best players in safety Eric Berry. If Cousins can take care of the football and convert a couple red zone drives with touchdowns and not field goals, they could win this game outright.
Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Washington!
|10-01-17||Eagles v. Chargers -1||26-24||Loss||-115||72 h 45 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Chargers -
I just think we are getting too much value here with San Diego at basically a pick'em on their home field. Not to mention the Chargers are 0-3 and there's no doubt a feeling in the locker room that this is a must win game. We are going to get the best this team has to offer and this team could very easily be 2-1 and should be at worst 1-2.
The Eagles are a team that I think is growing on the public and they have started out 2-1. The thing is, that game against Washington could have went either way in Week 1 and they won last week on a 61-yard field goal as time expired to be the Giants. That New York team was 0-2 and could barely do anything offensively coming into that game.
This Eagles secondary is still without top corner Ronald Darby and have been hit with some injuries at safety and one of their best players, Fletcher Cox, is questionable. Philip Rivers can have success against this defense. I also think the Chargers defense can make life tough for the Eagles, who lost a big part of their offense in running back Darren Sproles. This is also a long way out west for Philadelphia to travel and this is definitely a flat spot. Take San Diego!
|10-01-17||49ers v. Cardinals -6.5||15-18||Loss||-110||43 h 31 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Cardinals -
I think we are getting great value here with the Cardinals laying less than a touchdown at home against the 49ers. I know San Francisco has a few extra days to prepare and everything looks broken for Arizona after losing David Johnson. The key here is the 49ers aren't a very good team. They are one of thew few that just don't have the talent to win a lot of games.
While they kept it close against the Rams that game wasn't as close as it ended up. That's also the only team they have beat the previous two seasons. They lost by 20 at home in Week 1 against an awful Panthers offense and a little too much love for keeping it close against a Seattle team that always starts out slow. Arizona is going to be pissed off after losing like they did against the Cowboys and I just don't see them playing poorly here in this spot. Reminds me a lot of the spot with Chicago on Thursday, where they looked like they could compete with Green Bay (lot of injuries) and were completely outclassed. Take Arizona!
|10-01-17||Steelers v. Ravens +3||26-9||Loss||-110||69 h 41 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Ravens +
I think this is a great spot to jump on Baltimore, as the perception here couldn't be much worse after their 44-7 loss to the Jaguars. The Ravens didn't show up to play and you have to wonder if they overlooked a Jaguars team that has been so bad for so long and just might have turned the corner. Baltimore definitely didn't play like the same team that started out 2-0, especially on defense.
That plane ride home from London had to be the worst. I expect to see a pissed off Ravens team, who isn't going to take lightly to the fact that they have the same record as their division rivals, yet they are home dogs. While the Steelers are 2-1, they haven't played great and just lost to a Bears team that looked awful on Thursday Night Football against the Packers. They were in a dog fight Week 1 at Cleveland, who was starting a rookie QB. They won by 17 at home against the Vikings, but they learned last minute that Bradford wasn't going to and had to go with Case Keenum (hard to get prepared for a start on that short of notice).
Flacco wasn't good against the Jaguars last week, but I think he's going to show up here against the Steelers, who I think aren't as good on defense as people think. They have just had it easy going so far with 3 games against Kizer, Keenum and Glennon.
As for the Steelers offense, it's no secret that they aren't the same offensive team on the road as they are at home. Most of that coming from poor play from Ben Roethlisberger. I see him struggling here against a very good Ravens defense and Baltimore winning this game outright. Take Baltimore!
|10-01-17||Panthers +9 v. Patriots||33-30||Win||100||69 h 41 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Panthers +
The Patriots were very fortunate to win at home last week against the Texans, scoring from 25 yards out with just 23 seconds to play for a 36-33 win. A great comeback, but that's not how it's gone in the past with Belichick against a rookie QB. He usually makes them look bad. While Deshaun Watson threw 2 picks, he also threw for 301 yards and 2 scores and rushed for 41 yards.
This Patriots defense didn't look good in the preseason, was torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs in Week 1 at home in prime time, was okay against the Saints and just gave up 33 points to the Texans. Houston scored 13 points and had just 266 total yards the previous week against the Bengals and 7 in their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars at home.
As bad as Cam Newton and the Panthers have looked this season, you have to think they are going to have some success here against this defense. I'm not sure what happened last week against the Saints, but this Carolina defense was playing lights out the first two weeks and have a ton of talent on that side of the ball. They are going to be locked in here off that ugly showing and a chance to take on the GOAT. Given what we have seen so far from New England, would it really be a surprise if they lost this game? The books are still inflating the Pats line after they owned the books last year. Take the Panthers!
|09-30-17||Iowa v. Michigan State -3||Top||10-17||Win||100||48 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Michigan State -
I love the value here getting Michigan State as a slim 3-point favorite at home against the Hawkeyes. This is an ideal spot to fade Iowa off that huge Saturday night home game against No. 4 Penn State, which they let slip through their fingers on the final play of regulation. On the flip side of this, we get Michigan State in an ideal bounce back spot off a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame.
Even if the situation was different, I would lay just a field goal at home with the Spartans. The biggest thing is I just don't think Iowa team is as good as people think. Sure they kept it close against the Nittany Lions, but they also beat Michigan in a similar spot a year ago and weren't that great. Wins over Wyoming, Iowa State and North Texas leave little to be desired.
Also, that game against Penn State could have been a lot worse. Iowa's offense was atrocious for pretty much the entire first half and ran about has as many plays as the Nittany Lions. They could have just as easily lost by 20+. As for Michigan State, they were a lot more competitive against Notre Dame than the final score would lead on, as they outgained the Irish 496 to 355. They come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg. If Iowa thought it was tough at home moving the ball against the Nittany Lions, they are in for a really long day on the road against a pissed of Spartans team. Take Michigan State!
|09-30-17||Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. Kentucky||20-24||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Eastern Michigan +
I like the value here with Eastern Michigan catching two touchdowns plus the hook. Chances are you haven't been paying close attention to the Eagles. This program is on the rise. After a 4-year stretch where they went 7-41, Eastern Michigan finished 7-5 and made a bowl last year. This turnaround is a result of head coach Chris Creighton, who will be getting a promotion to a bigger program in the near future. His recruits are finally seeing the field and playing big roles, as this is now year 4 with the team.
The come in off a loss to Ohio, but were in that game and could have just as easily won. The previous week they won on the road at Rutgers as a mere 6-point dog. The big key here is we catch Kentucky in the ideal spot to fade off a demoralizing 27-28 loss to Florida. A very similar spot to Tennessee last week, when they barely held on to beat UMass after losing the Gators on a Hail Mary. This is almost bigger than a bowl game for the Eagles, as they get to show their stuff against a SEC foe. I think they make a game of this and maybe even pull off the upset. Take Eastern Michigan!
|09-30-17||Georgia v. Tennessee +8||41-0||Loss||-110||48 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational 'PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR' on Tennessee +
I like the value here with the Volunteers catching over a touchdown at home against the Bulldogs. I just think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with this line after Tennessee barely scraped by UMass 17-13 as a 28-point favorite. The Vols struggling against the Minutemen was no surprise to most experts.
Tennessee had just suffered an excruciating loss to rival Florida the week before, where they rallied from a 10-point deficit to tie it at 20-20, only to have the Gators connect on a 63-yard Hail Mary as time expired. Just about every team is going to suffer a letdown after a loss like that. Had that Florida came went differently and the Vols were 4-0, I think this line would be a lot closer to 3 or 4 not 8.
Georgia has looked impressive and off a big win over Mississippi State, but it's not easy winning on the road in the SEC, especially against a quality opponent. Let's also not overlook that this Bulldogs team is only 83rd in the country in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing attack (166 ypg, 112th).
I expect a much more focused and determined Tennessee defense at home on Saturday afternoon and wouldn't be shocked if the Vols won this game outright. The underdog in this series is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Vols are 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they hosted the Bulldogs. Take Tennessee!
|09-30-17||Syracuse +14 v. NC State||25-33||Win||100||15 h 57 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Syracuse +
Now that this line has got up to 14, think it's worth a shot to take the Orange on the road against NC State. This is a really tough spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off a huge game and win on the road over Florida State, who they hadn't beat since that crazy 17-16 upset over the then No. 3 Seminoles back in 2012.
Hard to pay a ton of attention to Syracuse when you have another big game looming in just a matter of days, as they host Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. I just think they come out flat here and this Orange team can put up some points if you don't give your full respect. We saw that last week when they went on the road and gave LSU all they could handle in a 26-35 loss as a 21.5-point favorite. I think we see a similar type of game here, where they probably don't have a real shot at winning, but do enough to cash the cover. Take Syracuse!
|09-30-17||Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14||24-33||Loss||-110||44 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Wisconsin -
This might seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying at home, but I don't see this one being all that competitive. I'm not buying that Northwestern is just all the sudden back after a blowout win at home over a Bowling Green team that doesn't have a win this season, which includes a loss to a FCS school.
I think the biggest indicator here is the Wildcats game against Duke, which they lost 17-49. Northwestern managed just 191 total yards in that game 7 of those 17 points came in the final minutes of regulation with the game well in hand. Wisconsin's defense is even better than the Blue Devils.
The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in that loss at Duke, where they finished with a mere 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts.
I don't think the Badgers light up the scoreboard here, but I think they score 24+ and they are going to be in prime position to cover, as I just don't see Northwestern eclipsing 10-points. There's a chance Wisconsin could go for even more, but either way I like them to win by at least two touchdowns. Take Wisconsin!
|09-28-17||Bears +7.5 v. Packers||14-35||Loss||-110||22 h 1 m||Show|
3* Bears/Packers TNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Bears +
I like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown on the road against a banged up Packers team. I know Aaron Rodgers has had a lot of success against the Bears in his career, especially at home, but he's going into this one with his top 5 offensive tackles not expected to be available. Starters David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are both listed as doubtful and their top 3 backups are all on IR. Regardless of what the Packers do, that offensive line figures to have a very difficult time blocking.
As good as Rodgers is, he can only be so effective when he doesn't have time to throw. Keep in mind last week he was sacked 6 times by the Bengals. Chicago's defensive front has been impressive, as they are 8th against the run (83.7 ypg). They are also 12th overall in total defense.
I know the offense hasn't been great under Mike Glennon, but I like their 1-2 punch out of the backfield with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The two have combined for 354 yards and nearly 5.0 yards/carry on the season. Cohen is also a big time threat in the passing game, as he actually leads Chicago with 20 receptions for 126 yards.
Green Bay also has some injuries concerns on defense. Linebacker Nick Perry and defensive tackle Mike Daniels are both questionable and corner Davon House has been ruled out.
Lets also give the Bears some credit. They hung with Atlanta in a 6-point home loss in Week 1, lost 29-7 at Tampa Bay, but were more competitive than the final score and last week they didn't just hang around with the Steelers, they beat them outright. I also think it's a low-scoring game, which adds even more value to Chicago at this price. Take the Bears!
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||28-17||Loss||-120||11 h 39 m||Show|
5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals +
I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys. Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football.
We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here.
The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer.
Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona!
|09-24-17||Raiders v. Redskins +3.5||10-27||Win||100||40 h 2 m||Show|
3* Raiders/Redskins SNF 'HEAVY HITTER' on Redskins +
The Raiders are one of the biggest publicly backed teams going right now and I love fading the public in these Sunday Night games, as we know we are getting a good price on the other side. That's certainly the case here with Washington as a 3.5-point home dog.
Washington was better than the final score in their opener against the Eagles, as they actually had the ball driving for the game-winning score and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD and lost by 13. They responded very well in Week 2 at LA, taking down what I think is a very improved Rams team. I expect a big time effort here with them getting no love at home in a prime time game and could also see the Raiders coming in with a bit of a big head after that 25-point blowout win against the Jets.
I still have a lot of concerns with that Oakland defense and that really makes them hard to trust as a road favorite. Let's also not forget how fortunate this team was in close games last year. Washington is a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Take Washington!
|09-24-17||Bengals +8 v. Packers||24-27||Win||100||36 h 57 m||Show|
4* NFL No Doubt ATS 'BLOWOUT' on Bengals +
The Bengals have looked as bad as any team to start the season and I believe it has them way undervalued here as a big road dog against the Packers. Cincinnati fired their offensive coordinator and simply can't be as bad as they have been on offense going forward. The Bengals red zone efficiency is in uncharted territory and is going to improve.
Green Bay gets a lot of love because of Aaron Rodgers, but I see a lot of concerns with this team. They got a ton of key guys injured and are not putting up near the offensive numbers you would expect given they got Rodgers. They didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the 3rd quarter in their opener against the Seahawks and had just 10-points against the Falcons before adding on a couple late scores with the game basically out of reach.
While the offense has struggled, Cincinnati's defense has played well to start the year. I think they give the Packers trouble here. We also know we are getting a desperate Bengals team that doesn't want to start out 0-3. I don't know that they can avoid that, but I do expect them to keep this close. Take Cincinnati!
|09-24-17||Broncos v. Bills +3.5||Top||16-26||Win||100||33 h 33 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills +
I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys.
The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2.
The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards.
Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo!
|09-24-17||Steelers v. Bears +7.5||17-23||Win||100||33 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Bears +
I really like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown at home against the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes in 2-0 and are a big public team, which has this line inflated. What people continue to overlook with this Steelers team is they don't play as well on the road. Most notably quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If you look back to Week 1, they barely held on to beat the Browns 21-18 in Cleveland and that was with the Browns spotting them a touchdown on blocked punt.
Chicago got rolled last week by the Bucs on the scoreboard, but it was a more evenly matched game than the 29-7 final would indicate. The total yardage was nearly identical with Tampa Bay at 311 and the Bears at 310. The difference being Chicago finishing with a -3 turnover margin. We saw the Bears keep it within a TD at home against the Falcons in Week 1 and expect them to do the same here.
This has historically been a good spot to back the Bears, as they are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses and have actually won these games on average by nearly 3 ppg. Steelers are 6-15 ATS under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season, while Bears head coach John Fox is 18-4 as a head coach when his team trailed in the previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Take Chicago!
|09-24-17||Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5||7-44||Win||100||29 h 6 m||Show|
4* Jaguars/Ravens NFL London ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Jags +
I like the value here with the Jaguars in Sunday's early game in London. These are two very similar teams that want to run the football and let their defense do the work. Both have been really strong defensively and I just think the 3.5-points is too good to pass up here.
Baltimore has looked great to start, but let's not overreact to beating up on a Bengals team that might have the worse offensive line in the NFL and taking down the Browns at home. Turnovers have really aided both wins for the Ravens, who have a ridiculous 10 takeaways (8 interceptions) in two games.
What's getting overlooked is the Ravens offense hasn't been good and this team will struggle to win if they don't get those turnovers. Baltimore was actually outgained by the Browns last week and only had a 268-221 edge in total yards in their 20-0 win over the Bengals. Another thing here with Baltimore is the injuries are really starting to pile up and they will be without several key pieces for this one.
Ravens are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games in which they held their opponent to 99 yards or less. We also find a strong system in play on the Jaguars. Teams that had a turnover margin of -1/game or worse the previous year are an impressive 24-8 (75%) the last 10 seasons against the spread the next year in conference games. Take Jacksonville!
|09-23-17||Mississippi State v. Georgia -4||3-31||Win||100||36 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Georgia -
After an impressive 37-7 win at home over LSU last week, the public is going to be on the Bulldogs here as dog against Georgia, who despite being ranked No. 11 isn't a team getting a lot of publicity either. I just don't see Mississippi State being able to bounce back from that near perfect performance with a similar one on the road against a much better Georgia team.
For me this one comes down to Georgia's defense under Kirby Smart and Mel Tucker being too much for Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald to overcome. A lot of what Mississippi State does offensively is built around their ability to get Fitzgerald going on the ground. Georgia has already faced a talented mobile quarterback and passed with flying colors. That would be Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush, who they limited to 1 yard on 16 attempts. Wimbush has rushed for 313 yards and 5 scores in his two other games this season, including a always strong BC defense.
I just see too much value here in Georgia at home laying less than a touchdown. Keep in mind Georgia is 51-14 at home SU over the last 10 years and the home team in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Georgia!
|09-23-17||TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State||44-31||Win||100||33 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on TCU +
I just think we are getting too much value on TCU to pass up a play on the Horned Frogs. No question Oklahoma State has looked impressive, but let's not get too carried away with how easy it's been. This team is going to be tested and it's a lot harder to blow teams out inside conference play. Especially a talented team like TCU, who has had a pretty impressive start of their own.
The Horned Frogs outgained Jackson State 542 to 65 in a 63-0 blowout win to start the year, followed that up with a convincing 28-7 win on the road over Arkansas and then beat SMU by 20. I know it's early, but they are ranked inside the Top 20 in both total offense and total defense.
TCU head coach Gary Patterson will put together a game plan here to slow down the Cowboys' high-flying offensive attack. Part of it will be the scheme defensively. The other will be the offense sustaining drives and keeping them off the field.
Dating back the Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a winning home record, 20-10 ATS in their last 30 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 as a road dog. Take TCU!
|09-22-17||Utah -3.5 v. Arizona||30-24||Win||100||16 h 59 m||Show|
4* Utah/Arizona CFB Late Night 'BAILOUT' on Utah -
I look for the Utes to go into Tucson and lay a beating on the Wildcats tonight. Utah is a team that I feel is flying under the radar right now, as not much was expected out of the Utes with just 9 starters back from last year. Kyle Whittingham has done a tremendous job in Salt Lake City and there's a lot of excitement about this year's team.
Utah has always had a strong defense due their ability to recruit and develop kids on that side of the ball. In year's past they have just tried to let their defense win them games by grinding out games. This year's team has a different feel, as they are taking a different approach on offense behind maybe the best kept secret in college football in sophomore quarterback Tyler Huntley, who beat out last year's starter Troy Williams (Sr) and Alabama transfer Cooper Bateman.
Huntley has been electric so far, throwing for 868 yards with an impressive 72% completion rate and 7.82 yards/attempt. However, it's his ability to run the ball that really makes him special, as he's already got 212 yards and 3 scores on the ground (puts him on pace for just under 1,000 yards rushing). He threw for 300 yards and rushed for 89 against BYU and while the Utes only won that game 19-13, they outgained the Cougars by almost 200 yards (had to settle for 4 field goals).
I think he has a big game here against an average Arizona defense and most importantly, I see Utah's defense making life miserable for a Wildcats offense that relies so much on their ability to run the ball. The Utes are built to stop the run defensively behind arguably the best d-line in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the country. Take Utah!