Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -140 | 8-6 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Red Sox/Astros Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Houston - I look for the Astros to have no problem here evening up the series 2-2 with Boston. Houston's offense simply didn't produce in Game 3, but I'm confident they will revert back to the form that saw them score 12 runs over the first two games, as they will be up against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who has a 5.19 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Astros. He made two starts against Houston this season and allowed 7 runs on 12 hits (3 HRs) in just 12 innings of work. Astros will counter with Carlie Morton, who they have been being cautious with after he dealt with shoulder problems in the final month of the regular-season. Morton was great when healthy, as he was 15-3 with a 3.18 Era and 1.162 WHIP in 30 starts. I expect him to come out and pitch a gem before handing it over to that dominant bullpen of the Astros. Take Houston! |
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10-13-18 | Dodgers -110 v. Brewers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Dodgers/Brewers NLDS (G2) PLAY OF THE YEAR on Dodgers - I'm confident the Dodgers will even up the series with a win in Game 2. I think the 4 runs that LA was able to push across in the final 2 innings was a big confidence builder for that offense and I expect them to get off to a strong start here against Milwaukee's Wade Miley. The Brewers went to their bullpen early and their go-to reliever, Josh Hader, threw 3 innings last night. Dodgers will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was sensational in his start against Atlanta in the NLDS. Ryu allowed just 4 hits and struck out 8 in 7 shutout innings. Ryu should be in great form having not pitched since last Oct. 4. There's also a great system in play, Road teams who have an OBP of .350 or better in their last 20 games and starting a pitcher on 7 or more days of rest are 45-17 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 16-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Red Sox/Yankees Game 3 Total DESTROYER on Yankees UNDER Big time value here with the UNDER in Game 3 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Red Sox. No question Yankee Stadium is more of a hitters park, but that will be negated some with temps expect in the low 60's and the win blowing in from right center at close to 10 mph. I also really like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eovaldi faced New York 3 times during the regular-season and didn't give up an earned run win 16 innings and allowed just 6 hits. The Yankees will counter with ace Luis Severino, who put last year's postseason struggles behind him with a dominant effort in the Wild Card game against the A's, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings. Severino now has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.62 ERA in 16 home starts. He was also dominant in his last start against Boston, holding the Red Sox to just 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings. Take the UNDER! |
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10-03-18 | A's +163 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
3* A's/Yankees AL Wild Card Winner on Oakland + We saw the Cubs lose at home in the NL Wild Card on Tuesday and I look for the road team to reign supreme again in Wednesday's AL Wild Card showdown between the A's and Yankees. I just don't trust New York starter Luis Severino in this spot. While he got back on track over his final few starts, he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in just 2 1/3 innings against these A's less than a month ago (9/5). You also can't ignore how shaky Severino was in last season's playoffs. He started New York's 8-4 win over the Twins in the Wild Card game, but recorded just 1 out before he had to be pulled. He allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings of his next start against the Indians, but was fortunate to only give up 3 runs allowing 2 homers. Then in his two starts against the Astros he failed to complete 5 innings in either start. Oakland was the better team in the 2nd half and this A's offense is built for postseason success. I also don't have any concerns with Oakland going with "Opener" Liam Hendricks here. The A's used an "Opener" 9 times in September and posted a 1.86 ERA in those 9 games. Take Oakland! |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NL Wild Card Total ANNIHILATOR on Cubs UNDER Both of yesterday's tie-breaker games were low scoring and both the Cubs and Rockies offenses found it very difficult to get anything going. The Cubs managed just 3 hits against the Brewers and their lone run came on a solo shot by Rizzo. Colorado only had 4 hits against the Dodgers and two of those came in the 9th inning on solo shots by Arenado and Story with the Rockies trailing 5-0. Hard to see either of these offenses getting on track with the starting pitching matchup that has the Cubs Jon Lester up against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Lester was 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 starts and comes in with a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Freeland was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and enters with a 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts. You also have to factor in this being a winner take-all scenario, which means both teams are going to use their best relievers and won't hesitate to make a change to get the best matchups possible. We are also going to have less than ideal scoring conditions with the wind blowing slightly in from center and temps expected in the mid to low 60s. UNDER is 22-8 in the Rockies last 30 games vs a left-handed starter, 13-4 in their last 17 off a loss and 13-3 in Freeland's last 16 starts against a team that scored 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Cubs last 14 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 at home in the playoffs. Take the UNDER! |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Diamondbacks | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NL West PLAY OF THE WEEK on Dodgers - This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Dodgers. LA loss 4-3 on a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th on Tuesday. The Dodgers are still 10-3 over their last 13 and are definitely a team you want to back off a defeat, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 when coming off a loss. Arizona is getting some love from the books because they have their ace Zack Greinke on the mound, but LA has enjoyed going up against top notch starters. In fact, the Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Arizona has lost 6 straight off a win, are just 8-20 in their last 28 overall and a mere 1-4 in Greinke's last 5 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-25-18 | Brewers +104 v. Cardinals | 12-4 | Win | 104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers + Milwaukee went into St Louis and took the series opener 6-4 on Monday and should have no problem taking game 2. With the Brewers win and the Cubs losing to the Pirates, Milwaukee is now just 1.5-games back of Chicago for 1st place in the NL Central. Hard to not like the Brewers chances on Tuesday, as they send out the red-hot Gio Gonzalez against the struggling Ausin Gomber of St Louis. Gonzalez has a 1.65 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all 3 of which have come after Gonzalez came over from the Nationals. As for Gomber, he's got a 7.07 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in 3 home starts. Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while St Louis is a mere 1-5 in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-24-18 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rangers UNDER The books have set the total too high for Monday's MLB matchup between the Rangers and Angels. Both of these teams are just playing for pride and both are struggling at the plate in the stretch run. LA his hitting an atrocious .185 as a team over their last 7 games. A stretch in which they have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. It hasn't been much better for Texas. The Rangers are hitting just .214 as a team over their last 7 and have been shutout 3 times in their last 6 games. Angels will give the rock to Felix Pena, who has flashed some potential and was absolutely dominant in his recent start against the Rangers on 9/12, allowing just 6 hits over 6 shutout innings. Adrian Sampson will take the mound for Texas and he's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his 2 starts this season. One of those came against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings of a 0-1 loss. UNDER is 10-4 in Pena's last 14 starts and 6-2 in the Angels last 8 at home. UNDER is also 25-9-3 in the Rangers last 37 road games vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-21-18 | Brewers -123 v. Pirates | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
5* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers - Milwaukee should have no problem securing a win on the road against the Pirates and are showing great value here as a short favorite. The Brewers will be out for revenge after dropping the final 2 games of a 3-game set at Milwaukee against these Pirates last week. Jhoulys Chacin will take the mound for the Brewers and he's 9-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 19 road starts. He's also pitched extremely well against Pittsburgh this season. Chacin has made 5 starts against the Pirates in 2018 and has allowed a mere 8 runs in 28 2/3 innings of work, never giving up more than 3 runs in any of the 5 starts. He's also allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits in the 2 starts that came at Pittsburgh. Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 on the road and 4 straight series openers with Chacin on the mound. Pirates are just 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning record and 3-3 in Ivan Nova's last 16 starts when he's facing a team that scored 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-19-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 1-10 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* AL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox UNDER These might be two of the best offenses in the game, but I don't see either of them having much success with tonight's pitching matchup. Boston will send out veteran David Price, while New York gives the ball to ace Luis Severino. Price has been on an absolute tear since July. He's 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA over his last 11 starts. Severino hit a bit of a rough patch, but he's still 17-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 30 starts and owns a 2.86 ERA in 14 home starts. He's fresh off a strong outing at Minnesota and I expect him to step up and deliver one of his better performances against a rival. UNDER is 6-2-1 in Price's last 9 starts and 5-0-1 in the Red Sox's last 6 vs a right-handed starter. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Yankees last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-1-1 in Severino's last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mets OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The fact that Noah Syndergaard is on the mound is keeping this number a lot lower than it should be. While Syndergaard is a top notch starter, he's allowed 8 runs on 20 hits and 7 walks in his last 2 starts against the Phillies. As for Philadelphia starter, Zack Eflin, he's lost his form down the stretch. Eflin owns an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also had a miserable time when matched up with the Mets, as he's 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 6 career starts against them. OVER is 5-1 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record, 5-1 in Efflin's last 6 starts against a division opponent and 3-0-1 in the Mets last 4 after giving up 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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09-18-18 | Twins v. Tigers -102 | 5-3 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
4* AL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Tigers - Detroit is worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Twins. Minnesota has dropped 26 of their 36 road games in the second half and are just 7-16 on the season when listed as a road favorite of -150 to -100. Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for the Twins in this one and he's just 6-10 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 30 starts. That's good news for Detroit, who have won 5 straight against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Minnesota has also lost each of Odorizzi's last 6 starts on the road. The Tigers will counter with lefty Daniel Norris and the southpaw will have an edge here against the Twins, who have lost 7 straight against a left-handed starter. Minnesota did win the series opener on Monday, but are just 2-9 in their last 11 following a win. Tigers have also won 9 of Norris' last 13 starts against division opponents. Take Detroit! |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Cubs on Monday. Arizona will have one of the best pitchers in the NL on the mound for this one in Pat Corbin and he comes in lights out of late. He's made 7 quality starts in his last 8 outings and enters with a 2.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Corbin has owned the Cubs in his career, going 5-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 6 starts. He was sensational in his lone start vs Chicago this year, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. He's also catching the Cubs offense in a bit of a slump. Chicago won 2 of 3 at home against the Reds over the weekend, but managed to score just 5 runs on 16 hits in the series. Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs and he's been hit or miss all season, which is why he's just 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's got a 3.89 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 14 starts. Hendricks lasted just 5 innings after giving up 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in his only start against Chicago this season. Take Arizona! |
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09-12-18 | Rangers +163 v. Angels | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* MLB AL WEST PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Rangers in a division showdown with the Angeles. LA is simply getting way too much respect with Felix Pena on the mound. While Pena does have an impressive 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts, he's been awful at home. He's got a 5.85 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 7 home starts. LA has lost 7 of his last 9 home starts and 7 of his last 10 starts overall. Texas will counter with veteran Yovani Gallardo, who was very effective in a recent start against the Angels. Gallardo faced LA on Aug. 19 and held the Angeles to just 2 runs on 6 hits in a 4-2 win. The Rangers are 7-1 in Gallardo's last 8 starts vs a team with a losing record and 8-3 in his last 11 starts on the road. Take Texas! |
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09-11-18 | Indians v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Indians UNDER The Indians and Rays should have no problem going UNDER the mark set by the books. The Rays won the opener 6-5 on Monday and that's worth noting as the UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 games off a 1-run loss. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Indians last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs and 5-0-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5+ runs. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Rays last 10 when facing a team that just scored 5 or more runs and 4-1-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 6 starts. Glasnow comes in with a strong 3.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 3 home starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.429 WHIP in his lone career start against the Indians, which came back on Aug. 31st. Take the UNDER! |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-10 | Win | 102 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers OVER The Reds and Dodgers should have no problem combining for double-digit runs in tonight's series opener. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is one of the top hitter parks in the league and we could see LA's high-powered offense eclipse this total on their own. The Dodgers are coming off a 9-run outburst in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies and will be up against the Reds Cody Reed, who has a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in 3 starts. He was rocked in his last outing at Pittsburgh, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings. LA will have lefty Alex Wood on the mound and while he's a decent pitcher, the Reds are locked in at the plate. They put up 25 runs over their final 3 games against the Padres. OVER is 10-4-1 in Cincinnati's last 15 home games vs a left-handed starter and 21-8-2 in their last 31 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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09-09-18 | Giants v. Brewers -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Brewers - Milwaukee has already won the first two games of the series and are a red-hot 8-2 in their last 10. I look for them to have no problem finishing off the sweep of San Francisco on Sunday. While the Brewers are surging down the stretch, the Giants have lost 6 straight. SF will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but he's just 2-3 with an ugly 4.73 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 9 road starts. Last time out he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits at Colorado. Look for Zach Davies to be the better starter in this one, in large part because he's going up against a struggling Giants offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 11 games. Brewers have won 9 of Davies' last 12 home starts against a team with a losing record, while the Giants have dropped 13 of Bumgarner's last 18 road starts. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-08-18 | Rangers +159 v. A's | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Rangers + Great price here on Texas as a big road dog against the A's on Saturday. The Rangers are going to be highly motivated off a loss in yesterday's opener and I think they have a great shot here at getting a win. Oakland's Edwin Jackson has a 2.91 ERA on the season, but is trending in the wrong direction. Jackson has a 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rangers have hit Jackson hard the two times they have faced him this season, scoring 9 runs on 14 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Rangers will have lefty Yohander Mendez on the mound for this one and Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 vs a left-handed starter. Take Texas! |
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09-07-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Indians UNDER I'm expecting a pitcher's duel Friday night in Toronto with Carlos Carrasco facing off against Marco Estrada and we are getting some exceptional value with the high total posted by the books. The Blue Jays figure to have a hard time getting anything going against Carrasco, who is 7-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 13 road starts. I know Estrada's numbers aren't for 2018, but this guy knows how to pitch and the Indians offense has been very inconsistent of late. Cleveland hasn't scored more than 3 runs in back-to-back games in almost 2 weeks, so I'm not all that concerned with them scoring 9 runs yesterday. UNDER is 9-3-2 in the Indians last 14 games against team with a losing record, 10-4-3 in their las 17 vs a right-handed starter and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in Estrada's last 6 starts at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-07-18 | Padres +150 v. Reds | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Padres
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-06-18 | Cubs +104 v. Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 104 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
4* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Cubs + This is too good a price to pass up on Chicago in Thursday's series opener against the Nationals. The Cubs recently acquired Daniel Murphy in a trade from Washington. He's going to want to show out against the team that shipped him away and I look for the entire Cubs team to be a little extra focused in this one. Chicago was able to avoid getting swept at Milwaukee with a 6-4 win on Wednesday and are 7-3 in their last 10 off a win. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound. He's got a 1.35 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Chicago has won 6 of his last 7 starts and Hendricks is 5-0 in his last 5 starts off a Quality Start in his last outing. Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the mound, but he's been pretty mediocre this season. Strasburg is just 7-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts. He's got a 5.40 ERA in 10 home starts and a 5.06 ERA over his last 3. Cubs have also won 20 of their last 28 games against a right-handed starter. Take Chicago! |
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09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
4* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on White Sox - Chicago should have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's 8-3 loss to the Tigers. While the White Sox come in with an overall record of just 56-83, they have been playing like a playoff contender since the middle of August. Chicago is 14-7 over their last 21 games and not once during this stretch have they lost back-to-back games. Detroit on the other hand is a mere 6-14 over their last 20 and have not won back-to-back during this stretch. Hard to not like the White Sox coming away with a win given the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. The Tigers will turn to veteran Jordan Zimmermann, who is just 2-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 10 road starts. Zimmermann also owns an ugly 6.40 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago. The White Sox will counter with highly touted prospect Michael Kopech, who has posted a 0.82 ERA in his first 3 starts. The best of those outings coming against these Tigers, where he allowed just 1 run over 6 innings in a 7-2 win. Detroit is a mere 19-49 in their last 68 road games, 21-49 in their last 70 coming off a win and 0-4 in Zimmermann's last 4 road starts. Take Chicago! |
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09-03-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +140 | 1-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins + This is too good a price to pass up on Miami at home against the slumping Phillies. Philadelphia just lost 2 of 3 at home to the Cubs and are just 4-10 in their last 14 overall. Not to mention, Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez isn't exactly the kind of starter that you can count on. He's a mere 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA in 25 starts and comes in with a 4.77 ERA and 1.589 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Miami will counter with Jose Urena, who hasn't pitched up to his potential this season, but does enter this game with a solid 3.00 ERA and sensational 0.867 WHIP in his last 3 starts. We also see that the Phillies are a mere 1-6 in Velasquez's last 7 road starts, and 1-7 in their last 8 as a team in a series opener. Take Miami! |
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09-02-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers - This is an easy play on the Dodgers for me. LA has won each of the last two games in the series and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. While the Dodgers are streaking in the right direction, Arizona has dropped 6 of their last 9. The Diamondbacks struggles of late are a direct result of the offense not producing. Arizona has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 straight games and have totaled 6 or fewer hits in 5 of those. I don't see the offense coming to life against Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who is now 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 17 starts. Buehler also has a 1.65 ERA in 9 starts at home and a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 outings overall. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-01-18 | Reds +142 v. Cardinals | 4-0 | Win | 142 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds + This is just too good a price to pass up on Cincinnati in game 2 of their 3 games series with the Cardinals. No surprise here that St Louis is being overvalued here after they won easily 12-5 on Friday, but it's simply not justified. Cincinnati has the offensive fire-power to go off in any game. I know Cardinals starter Daniel Poncedeleon has been great in his first two career starts, but it's only a matter a time before he slips up. A key thing here that I think will get overlooked is one of those two starts came against the Reds. Look for Cincinnati to have a much better approach against Poncedeleon this time around. Reds' starter Luis Castillo hasn't been great in 2018, but I like his chances of delivering a strong outing here. It's exactly what he's done in each of his last two starts against the Cardinals this season. He held them to 2 runs in 5 innings in a 8-2 Reds win on 7/14 and was even better the next time, allowing just 1 run in 5 1/3 innings of a 2-1 win. Take Cincinnati! |
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08-31-18 | Rockies v. Padres +125 | 0-7 | Win | 125 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Padres + The Padres come into this game having won 3 straight, including a thrilling 3-2 win in extra innings last night in the series opener against the Rockies. While San Diego will take the field with a ton of confidence, Colorado is in a bit of a rut, as they have lost 3 of 4 and scored 3 or fewer runs in all 3 losses. With the way the offense is struggling, I think the Rockies are going to have a difficult time coming away with a win here, as the Padres figure to score early and often against the struggling Antonio Senzatela who has a 5.24 ERA in 4 road starts and a 5.87 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Colorado is 2-8 in Senzatela's last 10 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 outings vs a team with a losing record. Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-1 in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take San Diego! |
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08-30-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Indians | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins +1.5 Minnesota rallied late to secure a 4-3 win over Cleveland on Wednesday and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Thursday's series finale. I like the Twins chances of winning this game outright, but I see a lot more value here playing Minnesota on the +1.5 run line at even money. This is simply a good time to play against the Indians, who are not playing all that great. After yesterday's loss, Cleveland is just 4-9 in their last 13 games. The Indians will send out Mike Clevinger and he's struggled when the offense isn't producing. Cleveland is just 2-7 in his last 9 home starts after back-to-back games where the offense failed to hit a single home run. Indians have lost in this spot by an average of 2.8 runs/game and all we need is for the Twins to win or lose by 1. Take Minnesota +1.5! |
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08-29-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +104 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 104 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles + The Orioles have absolutely dominated the first two games of their series with the Blue Jays. Baltimore won 7-0 on Monday and followed that up with a 12-5 win on Tuesday. There will be no let off from the Orioles, who will try to complete their first 3-game series sweep of the season. I see no reason for that not to happen. Not only is Baltimore swinging a hot bat, but they will have the edge on the mound in this one. The Orioles will send out Alex Cobb, who has really been sharp since the All-Star break and comes in having allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts. Toronto will counter with Ryan Borucki, who has an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 6 road starts and a miserable 9.82 ERA and 2.182 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Orioles are now 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Blue Jays have lost 6 straight on the road. Take Baltimore! |
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08-28-18 | Brewers v. Reds +116 | 7-9 | Win | 116 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Reds + Cincinnati is a prime bounce back spot at home against the Brewers after getting swept in their 4-game series at the Cubs over the weekend. What makes the Reds such a strong play today is who they have on the mound. Cincinnati will send out Anthony Desclafani, who has easily been the Red's best pitcher in the second half. Despite a very mediocre outing in his last start, Desclafani has a sensational 1.95 ERA in 4 starts in the month of August and I'm confident we get a strong outing out of him here. The same can't be said for Milwuakee starter Junior Guerra, who has an ugly 5.76 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in 9 road starts this season and comes in with a 6.00 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last 3 starts. His most recent outing actually came against the Reds on 8/21 and he gave up 7 runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. Brewers are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games, 2-6 in their last 8 following a win, 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing record and 1-5 in Guerra's last 6 road starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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08-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +130 | 0-7 | Win | 130 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Orioles + I'm confident Baltimore is going to snap their 8-game losing streak in tonight's series opener against the Blue Jays. The Orioles will have a big time edge on the mound in this one, as they send out the red-hot David Hess, who has a 2.89 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hess also has a 1.38 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in 2 starts against the Blue Jays this season. Toronto will counter with Sam Gaviglio, who has a mere 5.08 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 18 starts overall and is a mere 1-5 with an ugly 8.36 ERA and 1.752 WHIP in 9 road starts. Blue Jays are also just 9-24 in their last 33 road games when they come into the contest having won 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Baltimore! |
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08-26-18 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Sunday Night Baseball TOTAL DESTROYER on Yankees UNDER I look for both teams to struggle to get anything going offensively, making this an easy play on the UNDER at this high mark. New York will have their ace Luis Severino on the mound, who is 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 26 starts. Severino is also 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA in 7 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Andrew Cashner, who is coming off a strong start against the Yankees in his last outing, allowing just 3 earned runs in 7 innings of work. Cashner has allowed 3 or fewer and pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts. UNDER is 22-10-2 in the Yankees last 34 road games vs a right-handed starter and 18-7 in their last 25 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Severino's lsat 7 starts when facing an opponent that just scored 2 runs or less. UNDER is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games vs a right-handed starter and 4-1-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 or less. Take the UNDER! |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -128 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies - Colorado should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Cardinals. The Rockies will send out Tyler Anderson, who has actually been better at home than on the road, which is rare for Colorado pitchers. Anderson has a 4.45 ERA in 26 starts overall, but a solid 3.65 ERA in 13 starts at home. St Louis will send out lefty Austin Gomber, who has a solid 2.73 ERA in 5 starts, but a not so great 1.329 WHIP. He's also not been as strong on the road, where his ERA jumps to 3.54. I look for Gomber to struggle in his first ever start at Coors Field. Note the Rockies are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs a left-handed starter, including a 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs a southpaw starter. Rockies have also won 5 of their last 6 against a team with a winning record and are 4-1 in their last 5 doing game 3 of a series. Take Colorado! |
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08-25-18 | White Sox +112 v. Tigers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 112 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB American League GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox + Chicago should have no problem here securing a win against the Tigers on Saturday. While the White Sox have been out of the playoff race for quite some time, they are trying to build for the future and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. Chicago won 6-3 yesterday over Detroit and are now 7-3 in their last 10 overall. A big reason for the White Sox surge is the offense has been producing at a much higher level. They should be able to put up another big number here against the Tigers Ryan Carpenter, who has not been all that impressive in his first 4 starts. Carpenter has a 6.23 ERA and 1.558 WHIP. Lucas Giolito will take the mound for Chicago and he was sharp in a recent outing at Detroit back on Aug. 14th. Giolito allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings and I look for another strong outing here as the White Sox are a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 road starts against a team with a losing record. Take Chicago! |
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08-25-18 | Phillies v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Phillies UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Saturday's matchup between the Blue Jays and Phillies. Philadelphia will have Nick Pivetta on the mound and while he was roughed up in his last outing, he had pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of his previous 3 starts. He's also got a solid 3.41 ERA in 6 day starts and a 2.55 ERA and 0.770 WHIP in 4 interleague starts this season. Toronto will send out Aaron Sanchez, who is returning from the DL. I look for Sanchez to come right out and throw well here, as he's facing a struggling Phillies offense that is only averaging 3.1 runs/game and hitting a mere .237 as a team over their last 7 games. UNDER is 16-4 in the Phillies last 20 when playing with double-revenge, 21-9 in their last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in 2 straight games and 35-18 in Sanchez's last 53 starts over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER! |
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08-24-18 | Mariners +150 v. Diamondbacks | 6-3 | Win | 150 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Mariners + This is a great spot and price to back Seattle on the road against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is getting way too much respect here with Zack Godley on the mound. While he's got a solid 13-6 record, he owns a very average to below-average 4.47 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 25 starts overall and a 4.26 ERA and 1.316 WHIP over his lsat 3. Mariners are also 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record and have won 5 of Ramirez's last 7 starts in a series opener. Arizona on the other hand is just 3-10 in their last 13 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 2-6 in Godley's last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Seattle! |
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08-24-18 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mets/Nationals OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total here. Both starters here come into this matchup in poor form. Washington's Gio Gonzalez has a 8.04 ERA and 1.851 WHIP over his last 3 starts. New York will sent out Jason Vargas, who has 7.67 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in 14 starts overall this season and is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 5 home starts. OVER is also 7-1 in the Nationals last 8 during Game 1 of a series, 4-0-1 in their last 5 after a game where they scored 2 runs or less and 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs the NL East. OVER is also 10-4 in the Mets last 14 against a team that scored 2 runs or less in their last game and 11-5-1 in their last 17 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the OVER! |
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08-23-18 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
3* MLB Total PLAY OF THE DAY on Indians/Red Sox UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Thursday's series finale between the Red Sox and Indians. I just don't see either offense getting much going with today's pitching matchup. Boston will send out David Price, who has a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts and is 10-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 15 career starts against the Indians. Cleveland will counter with Adam Plutko, who has a solid 3.86 ERA and sensational 0.857 WHIP over his last 3 starts. I think the fact that this will be Plutko's first start against the Red Sox will benefit him, as Boston's hitters won't know what to expect. UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox's last 5 games after scoring 5 or more runs the previous time out and 5-0-2 in Price's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 5-0 in in the Indians last 5 games following a loss. Take the UNDER! |
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08-22-18 | Cubs v. Tigers +180 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Vegas Insider on Tigers + The Cubs come into this one losers of 2 straight and are in a massive slump at the plate right now. Chicago managed to push across just 1 run in yesterday's series opening loss to the Tigers and have now gone 4 straight games where they have managed to score just 1 run. People will bet on the Cubs no matter what, but it doesn't matter how much talent you have if you can't score runs. You also have to factor in the recent struggles of Chicago's scheduled starter Jon Lester. While he is coming off a decent outing against the Pirates, he was really bad in his previous 3 straight and still owns an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.772 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Cubs are just 2-8 in their last 10 on the road after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight games, while the Tigers are an impressive 16-11 this season as a home dog of +125 or more. Take Detroit! |
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08-22-18 | Rangers +149 v. A's | Top | 4-2 | Win | 149 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
5* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers + Texas doesn't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season, but I expect the best the Rangers have to offer in Wednesday's series finale against the A's. Texas has been embarrassed in each of the first two games of the series, losing 9-0 on Monday and 6-0 last night. They key here is the Rangers have a guy on the mound in Mike Minor who can keep Oakland's offense in check and I expect Texas' offense to come to life in this one. Minor is 3-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was sharp in his only start against the A's this season and owns a 3.00 lifetime ERA against Oakland. Edwin Jackson will toe the rubber for the A's and while he's been better than they could have ever imagined, he did not pitch well in a recent start against these Rangers. Jackson lasted just 4 1/3 innings after giving up 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walk. Take Texas! |
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08-22-18 | Orioles +167 v. Blue Jays | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles + With the Blue Jays sending out Thomas Pannone for his first career big league start, there's simply too much value here to pass up on the Orioles at this price. While Baltimore has little to play for at this point in the season, they have plenty of incentive to show up in this one, as the Orioles are 0-9 at the Rogers Centre this season and this will be their last chance to beat Toronto at their home park. Pannone has pitched just 4 1/3 innings of relief this season with the Blue Jays and chances are he will struggle here. He's also unlikely to go very deep in this game, as the just threw 1 1/3 innings of relief on Sunday. This is also a good time to fade the Blue Jays after they just put up a big offensive showing. Toronto scored 8 runs in yesterday's win over the Orioles. They are just 13-30 in their last 43 after scoring 5 or more runs in a game and a mere 4-13 in their last 17 after a game in which they scored 8 or more runs. Take Baltimore! |
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08-21-18 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* AL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Twins/White Sox OVER I think the total here has been set too low for this contest. Both the Twins and White Sox are coming into this series swinging a hot bat. Chicago has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 games, while Minnesota has scored 5 runs or more in each of their last 7 games. With the White Sox going up against a struggling Jose Berrios, who has a 5.52 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and the Twins will be taking on Michael Kopech in his first career start. Kopech is a big time prospect and figures to do really well at the big league level, but there's a decent chance he struggles in his first outing. OVER is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games after scoring 5 or more runs and 8-2-1 in Berrios last 11 starts against a team that is coming off a game where they scored 5 or more runs. OVER is also 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing record and 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER! |
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08-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Phillies UNDER 9 The books have set the total too high for tonight's 2nd installment of he MLB Little League Classic. The Phillies and Mets will square off at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia will send out the red-hot Nick Pivetta, who enters this contest with a 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP over his last 3 starts. New York will counter with Jason Vargas, who is coming off a strong outing at Baltimore, where he allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. Vargas also owns a strong 2.45 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Phillies. Low-scoring games have been very common when these two teams go to battle. In the last 12 meetings, 9 have finished UNDER the total set by the books. UNDER is 30-19 in the Mets last 49 division games overall and 22-11 in Vargas' last 33 starts in a night game. UNDER is also 17-7 in Pivetta's last 24 starts off a loss and 16-4 in the Phillies last 20 after a game where they scored 1 or fewer runs. Take the UNDER! |
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08-18-18 | Rockies v. Braves -153 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Braves - Atlanta should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Rockies. The Braves are certainly going to be up for this one after dropping the first two games of the series. The key here is Atlanta has a big edge on the mound with Mike Foltynewicz facing off against Antonio Senzatela. Foltynewicz is coming into this one a perfect 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in his last 3 starts. His most recent outing was one of his best all season, as he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 8 innings at home against the Marlins. That impressive start lowered his ERA to 2.91 in 11 starts at SunTrust Park this season. As for Senzatela, he's making his first start off the DL and this is always a tough spot for any starter. I think it could be especially tough for him, given he's 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 3 road starts. Colorado's dropped each of his last 4 road starts vs a team with a winning record and the Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 at home against a right-handed starter. Take Atlanta! |
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08-17-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres +120 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NL West Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK on Padres + San Diego shouldn't be a home dog here against the Padres, but the books are going to shade the line with the public likely to come in all over the Diamondbacks. San Diego will have one of the more under the radar starters in Joey Lucchessi, who has a 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's coming off one of his best starts, as he allowed just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings against a Phillies team that has the 3rd best record in the NL. We have already seen the Diamondbacks struggle on their current road trip. They lost the series at Cincinnati and split with the Rangers. Robbie Ray will be on the mound for Arizona and he's got a 4.60 ERA and 1.469 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take San Diego! |
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08-17-18 | Rays +170 v. Red Sox | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
3* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays + I think this is a great spot and excellent price to back the Rays against the Red Sox. Boston is the best team in baseball and hands the biggest public team on the board. You know before the line is ever set that it's been shaded in favor of the Red Sox. It's creating some great value on the other side. I know Boston has been playing well, but they are coming off a loss in the series finale against the Phillies and it wouldn't be a complete shock if we saw the Red Sox start to get a little complacent given their 10.5-game lead in the AL East and for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. I think this series against an over-achieving Rays team could be difficult, especially with a huge series against the Indians looming next week. Tampa Bay is quietly sitting at 62-59 and just took the final 2 games of their series against the Yankees to improve to 5-2 in their last 7. They are going to give everything they have in this series against Boston and it wouldn't surprise me if they won 2 of 3. Take Tampa Bay! |
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08-17-18 | Mets +153 v. Phillies | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets + This price is too good to pass up on the Mets with Noah Syndergaard on the mound. Syndergaard has been plagued by injuries of late, but when he's healthy and able to take the mound he's been really good. He comes into this one sitting at 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 16 starts. Of even more important in this matchup is how well he's pitched against the opponent. Syndergaard is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 7 starts. Mets hav won 4 of the last 5 starts Syndergaard has made against a winning team and 5 of his last 7 against division opponents. Take New York! |
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08-16-18 | Tigers v. Twins -153 | 8-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB No-Brainer PLAY OF THE WEEK on Twins - Minnesota will head into Thursday's action against the Tigers fresh off a quick 2-game sweep of the Pirates at home. The Twins should have no problem carrying over that momentum against Detroit, as they have owned teams like the Tigers at Target Field. Minnesota is 10-1 in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record. They are also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than a 1.30 and Detroit's Francisco Liriano comes into this one sitting at 3-7 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 18 starts. Twins will counter with Ervin Santana and they have won 6 of his last 7 home starts and are 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Minnesota! |
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08-15-18 | Angels v. Padres -121 | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
4* MLB Favorite PLAY OF THE WEEK on Padres - The Padres should have no problem here getting a win at home to avoid getting swept by the Angels. San Diego will send out Robbie Erlin, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts on the road against playoff caliber teams in the Cubs and Brewers. I expect more of the same from Erlin, who is trying to prove to the organization that he needs to be in their long-term plans as a starter. The other big key here is the Padres offense should be in store for a big day at the plate, as they will be up against the struggling Felix Pena of the Angels. Pena has an atrocious 9.53 ERA and 1.677 WHIP over his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that the Angels are just 2-11 in their last 13 road games vs a left-handed starter and 1-4 in Pena's last 5 starts. Take San Diego! |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -125 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers Detroit should have no problem here coming away with a win at home against the White Sox. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4, including a 9-5 win in yesterday's series opener against Chicago. Detroit should be able to once again rely on their offense to carry the load, as they will be up against the struggling Lucas Giolito. In his last 3 starts, Giolito has posted an awful 7.16 ERA and 1.470 WHIP and is now 7-9 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.496 WHIP in 23 starts on the season. Control has been a major problem for Giolito and I just don't see him pitching well here. On the flip side of this, the Tigers send out Blaine Hardy, who has performed well in his 12 starts this season. Hardy is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in 7 home starts and has posted a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Detroit! |
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08-13-18 | Mariners +120 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
4* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Mariners + The two teams fighting for the final Wild Card spot in the American League will face off in the first of a 3-game series on Monday. I'm taking Seattle to win the series opener behind Marco Gonzalez. The Mariners are coming off a huge 4-game sweep of the Astros and are poised to cool off the red-hot A's, who have won 9 of their last 11. Gonzalez is 12-7 with a strong 3.60 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 23 starts. He's made one career start at Oakland (earlier this year) and was lights out, giving tip just 2 hits over 7 shutout innings. Seattle has won 7 of his last 8 starts against division opponents and are 7-2 in his last 9 starts vs a team with a winning record. A's will counter with Sean Manaea, who is coming off a bad start at home against the Dodgers, where he lasted just 2 2/3 innings. Oakland is also just 1-4 in Manaea's last 5 starts in a series opener and 1-4 in his last 5 vs a division opponent. Take Seattle! |
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08-12-18 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -101 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
4* AL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rays Over The Blue Jays and Rays should have no problem here eclipsing the total. Toronto will send out Marcus Stroman, who is coming off a great outing at home against the Red Sox, but also came away with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. I'm surprised the Blue Jays are even sending him out, as it's extremely difficult to pitch effectively with a blister. I look for Tampa Bay to put up a big number here offensively. Tyler Glasnow will get the rock for the Rays and he's been effective in his 2 starts since being traded to Tampa. However, he's not pitching deep into the game. Glasnow has only thrown 7 innings in his 2 starts combined, failing to go past the 4th innings in either outing. OVER is 12-5 in Tampa's last 17 vs a starter that has a WHIP greater than 1.30. OVER is also 12-4 in the Blue Jays last 16 overall, 5-1 in their last 6 off a loss and 4-1-1 in Stroman's last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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08-12-18 | Rays +130 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays + The Rays shouldn't be a dog against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Tampa Bay has already won the first 2 games of the series and are now 7-1 vs Toronto on the season. The Blue Jays are also just 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Toronto will send out Marcus Stroman, who is coming off a great outing at home against the Red Sox, but also came away with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. I'm surprised the Blue Jays are even sending him out, as it's extremely difficult to pitch effectively with a blister. I look for Tampa Bay to put up a big number here offensively. The other key to this play is Toronto doesn't figure to get much offense going. The Blue Jays have only managed 1 run on 8 hits in their last 2 games and will be up against Tyler Glasnow, who Tampa acquired in the trade for Archer. Glasnow has a 2.57 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in 2 starts with the Rays. I expect another strong outing here. Take Tampa Bay! |
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08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -139 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Diamondbacks - Arizona should have no problem cashing in a win on the road against the Reds today. The Diamondbacks lost the series opener 3-0 on Friday, but are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 when coming off a loss. Yesterday was also a rare slip up against a bad team, as Arizona is 13-5 in their last 18 vs at team with a losing record and 6-1 in their last 7 on the road vs a team with a losing record. Diamondbacks will have a big edge on the mound in this one. Arizona will turn to Robbie Ray, who has posted a very strong 2.57 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 7 road starts. Reds will counter with Matt Harvey, who has really struggled after some early success with Cincinnati. Harvey has an atrocious 10.66 ERA and 1.815 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take Arizona! |
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08-11-18 | Cardinals v. Royals +144 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
4* MLB Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Royals + This is a great spot and price to back the Royals at home against the Cardinals. Kansas City will have Danny Duffy on the mound and he's been trending in the right direction after a miserable start to the 2018 season. Duffy posted a 6.88 ERA in his first 10 starts. Since that horrific stretch, he's posted a respectable 3.41 ERA in his last 14 outings. Duffy has also owned the Cardinals when he's got a chance to face them. He's 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in 3 career starts against St Louis. Cardinals will counter with Jack Flaherty, who has been pretty inconsistent on the road. St Louis has dropped 7 of his last 10 away from home and are just 2-7 in his last 9 outings overall. Take Kansas City! |
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08-11-18 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Brewers/Braves OVER The Brewers and Braves should easily eclipse the total here, as I think they have no problem combining for at least 10 runs. The two combined for 11 in the series opener on Friday, continuing a streak of high-scoring games for both sides. Atlanta has seen a combined score of at least 9 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee has seen at least 8 combined runs in 8 straight with each of the last 4 going for 12 or more. I look for both teams to stay hot at the plate in this one. Milwaukee will send out Wade Miley, who has an impressive 2.10 ERA in 7 starts, but wasn't sharp at all in his last outing at home against the Rockies, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings. Atlanta will counter with Julio Teheran, who has a 7.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a mere 4.23 ERA in 11 starts at home. Take the OVER! |
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08-10-18 | Phillies v. Padres +130 | 0-2 | Win | 130 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres + I absolutely love the value here with San Diego as a pretty good sized home dog against the Phillies. No question that Philadelphia is the better team, but this has the feeling of a trap series. Phillies just played a big 3-game series at Arizona and have a huge 2-game series at home against the Red Sox on deck. Philadelphia will also be sending out Zach Eflin, who has been trending in the wrong direction. Eflin has a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts overall, but a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 outings. Speaking of letdowns against bad teams, Phillies have lost Eflin's last 5 starts on the road against a team with a losing record. They are also just 2-7 in his last 9 overall vs a team that's sub .500. Lastly, I think we are going to see a great outing here from Padres starter Jacob Nix. He's one of their best prospects and likely would have been in the majors earlier if not for an injury in spring training. Nix made 9 starts at Double-A and posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.910 WHIP. He got one start at Triple-A before the call-up to the majors and threw 6 shutout innings before getting pulled. Take San Diego! |
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08-10-18 | Brewers -101 v. Braves | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers - This might seem like the Brewers are getting to much respect on the road against an Atlanta team that is just 1-game back of the NL East leading Phillies. I actually think Milwaukee should be a bigger favorite. Atlanta will send out Kevin Gausman, who they acquired in a trade with Baltimore. Everyone knows the potential is their for Gausman, but I don't think switching teams is going to magically make him an elite starter. He wasn't that great in his first start with the Braves and I think he's going to to continue to struggle, especially against a red-hot Milwaukee offense that is averaging 5.6 runs/game over their last 7. Typically playing at home on Friday in front of what is usually a large crowd favors the home team, but the Braves are just 1-8 this season at home on Friday. Atlanta has also dropped 5 of 7 at home vs a team with a winning record. Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 when coming off a loss, 6-1 in their last 7 vs a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee! |
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08-10-18 | Rays -107 v. Blue Jays | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rays - This is a great price to back Tampa Bay with their lefty ace, Blake Snell, on the mound. Snell has been one of the best starters in the game this season. He's got a 2.27 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 21 starts. Out of those 21 starts, Snell has allowed two or fewer runs 17 times. Facing any left-handed starter has been a problem for Toronto, who are just 6-21 in their last 27 when lined up against a south-paw starter. Blue Jays are also a mere 2-7 in their last 9 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 Toronto will counter here with Marco Estrada. While Estrada was great in his last start at Seattle, he's really struggled with consistency. He's just 2-5 in his last 7 starts after recording a Quality Start in his previous outing. Based on his history with Tampa Bay, chances are this won't be one of those strong outings. Estrada is 1-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Rays. Blue Jay are also just 2-8 in his last 10 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay! |
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08-09-18 | Braves v. Nationals -115 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on Nationals - The Nationals are going to be all business when they take the field for the finale of their 4-game series against the Braves. Washington has lost the last two games in the series and are now 6-games back of Philadelphia and 1/2-game back of Atlanta in the race for the NL East crown. This is one they have to have and I expect them to deliver. Washington will send out veteran Gio Gonzalez, who has hit a bit of a rough patch, but comes in with a strong 2.72 ERA in 7 starts against division opponents this season. The Nationals are also 21-7 in his last 28 home starts vs a team with a winning record. We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Braves. Road teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are off an upset win over a division rivalry just 52-100 (34.2%) against the money line when facing a team that is off 2 straight division home losses. Take Washington! |
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08-08-18 | Dodgers v. A's +155 | 2-3 | Win | 155 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK on A's + Just about every average joe will be looking to play the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but I really like the A's to cash in the win in this one. Oakland will send out newly acquired Mike Fiers, who was acquired in a trade with the Tigers. Fiers was a respectable 7-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 21 starts for a bad Detroit team. He's a fly ball pitcher, which should work to his advantage at the Coliseum. While LA defeated the A's 4-2 in the opener of this short 2-game series on Tuesday, Oakland had won their previous 6 and the Dodgers had lost their previous 8 games on the road against the A's. Oakland is 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs a left-handed starter and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are 9-2 in their last 11 following a loss and 14-3 in their last 17 at home overall. Take Oakland! |
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08-08-18 | Tigers +144 v. Angels | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers + This is a great spot and price to catch Detroit, as they look to avoid getting swept by the Angels. I really like Tigers' starter Blaine Hardy, who took a no hitter into the 7th inning of his last start against the A's. Hardy has allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in his last 2 starts combined and is catching a break here with Mike Trout still sidelined for LA. The Angels will turn to Jaime Barria, who has a respectable 3.84 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 16 starts. While those numbers are solid, Barria is trending in the wrong direction. Note he started out 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA in his first 7 starts, and is now sitting at 6-7. He's got a 5.06 ERA in his last 3 outings and I look for Detroit to put up a big number here. Angels have struggled to close out series, as they are just 4-11 in their last 15 during game 3 of a series. LA is also just 1-4 in their last 5after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game and 7-19 in their last 26 vs a left-handed starter. Take Detroit! |
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08-07-18 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
4* National League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Pirates OVER 10.5 After an extremely low-scoring game at Coors Field in the opener, I look for both offenses to come alive in game 2. A big reason for the lack of runs in Colorado's 2-0 win on Monday was the talent on the mound for both teams. I just don't see either starter having much luck in this one. Pittsburgh will give the rock to Jameson Taillon, who will be getting his first taste of Coors Field, which is one of the toughest places in the majors to start. He'll be facing a Rockies lineup that is averaging 5.2 runs/game and hitting .281 as a team at home this season. Colorado will turn to Chad Bettis, who will be making his first start at the big league level since July 1st. Bettis went to the DL with a blister after posting a 7.71 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Bettis has made 7 starts at Coors Field this season and owns a miserable 8.75 ERA and 1.777 WHIP in those outings. OVER is 29-18 in the Pirates last 47 games when listed as a favorite of -150 or less, 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs a right-handed starter and 8-1-2 in Taillon's last 11 starts vs the NL West. OVER is 5-0-1 in Bettis' last 6 home starts and 7-3-1 in the Rockies last 11 vs the NL Central. Take the OVER! |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals v. Marlins +155 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami + Miami snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 2-1 win in Monday's series opener against the Cardinals and I look for them to build off that performance with another win tonight. The Marlins will have rookie Pablo Lopez on the mound, who has a strong 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He was really sharp in his last outing at Philadelphia, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings. He'll face a struggling St Louis offense that has scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games combined. Cardinals are just 2-8 in their last 10 when revenging a loss where they went off as the favorite and 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Marlins are 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 2 runs or less and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Miami! |
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08-06-18 | Astros v. Giants +137 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants + I love this spot and price with San Francisco at home against the defending champs. The Giants are playing well, as they have won 5 of their last 7, including a 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks on Sunday. No question SF will give it their best shot against the team that won it all in 2017. Houston just took 2 of 3 against the Dodgers in what was the first meeting between the two clubs since they faced off in last year's World Series. This is an ideal letdown spot for the Astros and AT&T Park is not a place they have played well in the past. Houston has just 5 wins in their last 18 games as the road team against the Giants. The inability to score runs has been their biggest downfall. The Astros have scored 2 or fewer in 12 of those 18 meetings. With the red-hot Dereck Rodriguez on the mound for the Giants, Houston's offensive woes at AT&T Park figure to continue. Rodriguez is 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 10 starts. He's got a 2.64 ERA in 5 home starts and a 1.86 ERA and 0.826 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take San Francisco! |
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08-05-18 | Padres +187 v. Cubs | 10-6 | Win | 187 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
4* National League Value Play of the Week on Padres + San Diego is showing some big time value here as a near 2 to 1 underdog against the Cubs on Sunday. While the Padres have lost 2 of 3 so far in the series, they have given Chicago all they can handle, as both losses have come by just 1 run. I expect more of the same in this one, expect this time San Diego will find a way to come out on top. The Cubs will have All-Star Jon Lester on the mound, which is definitely playing into this inflated line. While Lester was great early, he's posted an awful 8.36 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's allowed 13 runs on 18 hits (4 HRs) during this stretch. As for the Padres, they will send out Joey Lucchesi, who has quietly had a strong season on a bad team. Lucchesi has been at his best on the road, where he's got a 3.23 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 6 starts. Cubs are just 2-6 in their last 8 after a win and a mere 1-5 in their last 6 after a game where they scored 5 or more runs. Take San Diego! |
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08-04-18 | Tigers +172 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers + We couldn't ask for a better price on Detroit when the Tigers take on the A's this Saturday. Oakland is playing well and the public is starting to take notice. The books have recognized this and are drastically inflating the lines on the A's, especially against a bad team like Detroit. The key here is I feel like the Tigers' offense can have some success against Oakland starter Edwin Jackson, who has posted a 4.41 ERA over his last 3 starts. The other thing is Detroit has a guy on the mound who will give them a great shot at winning. The Tigers turn to veteran Jordan Zimmermann. While the overall numbers for 2018 haven't been great, he's really enjoyed the chance to pitch against Oakland. Zimmermann has a strong 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 3 career starts against the A's. Zimmerman also has been at his best under the lights. He's got a 2.18 ERA and 0.726 WHIP in 4 night starts. Take Detroit! |
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08-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -155 | 7-2 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mariners - The Mariners have lost 3 straight and have fallen a 1/2-game behind division rival Oakland for the final final Wild Card spot. I expect a laser-focused Seattle side when they take the field tonight against the Blue Jays and I look for them to win this one going away. The Mariners will have one of the hottest starters in the league on the mound in Marco Gonzalez. He's won each of his last 5 starts and done so by posting a sensational 1.57 ERA during this stretch. Gonzalez has been rock-solid at home all season, as he's 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 10 starts (8-2 team record). Toronto will counter with rookie Ryan Borucki, who has an impressive 2.83 ERA in 6 starts. However, that ERA is a bit misleading. Borucki's got a 1.429 WHIP in those 6 starts and that's more typical of a starter that has an ERA of 4.00 or worse. He's really had his struggles on the road, where he's got a 4.80 ERA and 1.933 WHIP in 3 starts. Even with yesterday's loss, the Mariners are 21-5 in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and 26-12 in their last 38 at home. Toronto is a mere 2-8 in their last 10 following a win and 8-24 in their last 32 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Take Seattle! |
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08-03-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Yankees/Red Sox AL East Total of the Week on Yankees UNDER After last night's series opener saw a combined 22 runs in Boston's 15-7 win, a lot of people are going to expect another high-scoring game and jump on the OVER tonight. I think that's a huge mistake, as both teams should have a difficult time scoring with the two starters we have going in this one. The Yankees will send out their ace in Luis Severino, who is a legit Cy Young candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.94 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 22 starts. Severino last faced the Red Sox a little more than a month ago (7/1) and was outstanding, limiting Boston to just 2 hits over 6 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will counter with former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, who has really enjoyed facing New York at home. Porcello has made 7 starts at Fenway since coming to Boston back in 2015. He's allowed fewer than 2 earned runs in each of those 7 starts at home. That includes an earlier start against the Yankees this season, where he allowed just 2 hits in 7 shutout innings. UNDER is 11-3 in Porcello's last 14 home starts vs a team with w inning record, 13-3 in Boston's last 16 home games vs a right-handed starter and 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. UNDER is also 14-4 in the Yankees last 18 as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take the UNDER! |
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08-02-18 | Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-21 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE MONTH on Brewers + The betting public will look to either lay the big money with LA or take them on the run line, but that's not where the value is in this game. Despite losing 6-4 in extra innings on Wednesday, Milwaukee has been playing some of it's best baseball of the season. They are 8-4 in their last 12 and I think they got a decent shot here of upending Kershaw and the Dodgers, but I'm going to play them on the +1.5 run line for a little extra insurance. Most of the public's focus will be on Kershaw starting for LA, but few have been better than Jhoulys Chacin of late. In his last 3 starts, Chacin has posted a 1.50 ERA and sensational 0.389 WHIP, allowing just 3 earned runs on 6 hits in 18 innings of work. Brewers are 5-1 in Chacin's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record and 24-7 in their last 31 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Milwaukee +1.5! |
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08-01-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -120 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider Play of the Day on Cardinals - St Louis will have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's loss to the Rockies and cashing in a win at home in game 3 of their 4-game series with Colorado. St Louis is 6-1 in their last 7 following a loss. They are also a dominant 17-4 in their last 21 after a game in which they stranded 3 or fewer baserunners. Luke Weaver will toe the rubber for the Cardinals in this one and he's fresh off a really good start at home against the Cubs. Weaver held Chicago to just 2 runs in 6 innings and has a solid 3.37 ERA over his last 3 starts. Cardinals are 5-2 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record and 15-4 in his last 19 starts vs an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse. Take St Louis! |
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08-01-18 | Astros -127 v. Mariners | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
5* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros - The Astros snapped their 5-game losing streak with a 5-2 win on Tuesday and it could have been a much more lopsided final than it was. Houston was a bit unfortunate to only score 5 runs, given they had 15 hits. That was a great sign for the struggling Astros offense, which had managed just 23 hits in their previous 5 games combined. I look for the offense to build off that strong show here. Seattle will send out Wade LeBlanc, who comes in with a 4.08 ERA in his last 3 starts and owns a 5.14 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Astros. Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for Houston and he's red-hot with a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He should have no problem here keeping the Mariners offense in check. Seattle has only scored 4 runs in the series on 11 hits. Astros are 20-8 in Keuchel's last 28 starts against a division opponent, 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall and 4-0 in his last 4 on the road. Take Houston! |
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07-31-18 | Indians v. Twins +155 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Twins
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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07-31-18 | Giants v. Padres +115 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Padres + It's been a brutal month of July for the Padres, but I'm confident they will walk away with a win in Tuesday's afternoon matchup against the Giants. While San Francisco won the opener 5-3 on Monday, the Giants had lost their previous 6 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Today they will face San Diego lefty Clayton Richard, who is just 7-10 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 22 starts. However, Richard has posted a much better 3.77 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 9 home starts. The Giants are also just 3-7 in their last 10 games vs a left-handed starter and 2-8 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 on the season. There's also a strong system in play favoring a fade of San Francisco. Road teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are off an upset win against a division opponent are just 51-99 (34%) against the money line when facing a team that is off 2 straight division home losses. Take San Diego! |
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07-30-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
5* Interleague Total of the Week on Rangers/Diamondbacks OVER The Diamondbacks and Rangers will easily eclipse the total on Monday. Both teams enter the series opener swinging a hot bat. Texas is averaging 6.6 runs/game over their last 7 and Arizona isn't far behind at 5.6 runs/game in their last 7. The Rangers have combined for a minimum of 10 runs in 6 of their last 7 games. Both teams should stay hot at the plate in this one, as we have two struggling starters on the mound with Robbie Ray going for Arizona and Martin Perez on the rubber for Texas. Ray owns a 4.90 ERA in 12 starts and a 8.07 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in 5 home starts. Perez has a 7.08 ERA in 8 starts and a 6.64 ERA and 1.918 WHIP in 4 road outings. OVER is 7-2 in the Rangers last 9 interleague road games vs a left-handed starter and 8-2-1 in Perez's last 11 interleague starts. OVER is also 13-4-1 in Arizona's last 18 during game 1 of a series and 24-7-1 in Ray's last 32 home starts. Take the OVER! |
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07-29-18 | Cubs -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH ON Cubs - I absolutely love Chicago in this spot. The Cubs are going to be all business in this one after dropping the first two games of the series against rival St Louis. Chicago hasn't lost 3 straight games since the end of June and are 60-29 in their last 89 games after a loss. They also have been a great team to back late in a series, as they have gone 5-1 over their last 6 in game 3 of a series and are 4-0 in their last 4 games on Sunday. St Louis on the other hand is just 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win and 8-17 in their last 25 after a game where they scored 5 or more runs. John Gant will take the mound for the Cardinals and he's just 1-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 7 starts. He's been even worse at home, where he's got a 4.50 ERA in 4 starts. Cardinals have lost 4 of this last 5 home starts and are just 2-7 in his last 9 starts overall. Take Chicago! |
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07-29-18 | Nationals v. Marlins +150 | 0-5 | Win | 150 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NL East Play Game of the Week on Marlins + Miami edged the Nationals 2-1 on Saturday as a big home dog and I look for them to add to that with another victory on Sunday. Washington has struggled to bounce back from a poor offensive showing like they had yesterday. The Nationals are just 2-7 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less. They are also now just 7-15 in their last 22 games on the road and come in averaging a mere 3.9 runs/game and are hitting .224 as a team in day games this season. Washington will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who has an ERA of 5.40 since June 1 and really struggled in his lone start against the Marlins this season. Hellickson faced Miami at home back on July 5 and was torched for 9 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings. There's a solid system in play backing the Marlins. NL starters who have an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 on the season and enter the game with an ERA over 7.50 in their last 3 starts are 174-106 (62%) at home since 1997. Miami is also 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs a right-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 when facing a team that just scored 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take Miami! |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +100 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NL Central Game of the Week on Cardinals This is an excellent price to back St Louis at home against the Cubs. The Cardinals won the series opener 5-2 on Friday behind a strong starting performance from Luke Weaver. I expect more of the same in Saturday's contest, as St Louis will turn to arguably their best starter in Miles Mikolas. In 20 starts this season, Mikolas is 10-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.070 WHIP. He's also got a sensational 1.99 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 9 home starts and a 1.50 ERA in 2 starts against the Cubs this season. Chicago will send out Jose Quintana, who has pitched well of late, but figures to struggle here. Quintana has had a miserable time throwing well in day games this year. He's made 10 starts in day games and has a 5.01 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in those outings. The Cubs managed just 2 runs in the loss on Friday and that's important to note, as the Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas' 7 starts when facing a team that managed to score just 2 or fewer runs in their last game. The Cubs are also 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs a right-handed starter and 1-5 in their last 6 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take St Louis! |
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07-27-18 | Cubs +110 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cubs + This is a great spot to back the Cubs against rival St Louis. Chicago took the final two games to salvage a split in their 4-game series at home against Arizona and did so by scoring 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th on Thursday for a 7-6 win. I look for the Cubs to carry over that momentum against the slumping Cardinals. The even bigger key here is the pitching matchup and who will be on the mound for St Louis. The Cardinals are turning to Luke Weaver, who has been a major disappointment this season. Weaver is 5-9 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 20 starts. He's also 0-4 with a 5.32 ERA in 8 home starts and 0-3 with a 10.89 ERA in 5 career starts against the Cubs. In his 3 starts against Chicago this season, Weaver has allowed 13 runs on 22 hits and 7 walks in just 12 innings of work. Cubs will counter with Mike Montgomery, who has been a solid fill-in for their rotation. Montgomery is 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 10 starts. He's faced the Cardinals once this season and was very good, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings. Take Chicago! |
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07-27-18 | Indians -192 v. Tigers | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Indians
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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07-26-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* AL West Game of the Week on Oakland - I love the value here with Oakland as a decently priced road favorite against the Rangers in Thursday's MLB action. The A's put together another late-inning rally to defeat the Rangers 6-5 on Wednesday. Oakland trailed 5-1 going into the 7th. This came just one day after the A's went into the 7th trailing 10-2 and ended up winning 13-10 in extra innings. Those are two excruciating losses for Texas and I think they are going to have a hard time getting excited about coming to the park for this one. On top of that, Oakland should have the edge on the mound with Trevor Cahill facing off against Bartolo Colon. Cahill has a 2.96 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 10 starts. Colon is 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA in his last 3 starts and owns an ugly 5.84 ERA in 8 home starts. A's are also 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5 or more runs, 24-8 in their last 32 on the road and 40-16 in their last 56 vs a team with a losing record. Take Oakland! |
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07-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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07-25-18 | Cardinals v. Reds +122 | 3-7 | Win | 122 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Reds + I like the value here with Cincinnati as a decently priced home dog against the Cardinals in Wednesday's early MLB action. In the first two games of this series, St Louis has had a rookie starter making his first ever start take a no hitter into the 7th inning. Cincinnati was able to steal the opener 2-1 with 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th and nearly won again yesterday, as they lost in extra innings. Cincinnati has now scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 straight games at home, which is pretty hard to do given they play in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the majors. As good as Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has been, I think the Reds are primed to put up a big number and bring home the win. The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record. They are also 5-1 in Sal Romano's last 6 starts and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 outings at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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07-24-18 | Astros v. Rockies +150 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Rockies + I like the value here with Colorado as big home dog against the Astros in Tuesday's MLB action. This is simply too good a price to pass up on with the Rockies with how well they are playing. Colorado is 12-3 in their last 15 games, have won 6 straight series (all against teams above .500) and are 8-1 in their last 9 at home (won 5 straight). Houston will have Gerrit Cole on the mound, who has put together a great season, but there are some concerning signs with Cole of late. His command hasn't been very good, as he's walked 7 in his last 11 2/3 innings of work. Coors Field is not the place you want to be struggling with your command. Rockies will send out Tyler Anderson, who is one of the hottest pitchers in the game right now. Anderson has a 0.96 ERA in his last 4 starts and opponents are hitting just .147 against him during this stretch. Take Colorado! |
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07-24-18 | Tigers v. Royals +106 | 4-5 | Win | 106 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Royals + I like the value here with Kansas City at basically a pick'em at home against the Tigers in Tuesday's MLB action. The Royals lost the series opener 4-5 on Monday, but were a bit unfortunate not to win that game. KC should have produced more than 4 runs as they racked up 13 hits (left 13 on base). The Royals have scored 4 or more in 4 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. I like Kansas City's chances of staying hot at the plate in this one. Detroit will send out Jordan Zimmermann, who has an ugly 5.12 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 7 road starts and is coming off an ugly outing at Tampa where he gave up 4 runs on 11 hits. It's also worth noting the Tigers are just 1-4 in their last 5 off a win and 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Kansas City! |
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07-23-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
5* AL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tigers OVER I love the value here with the OVER in Monday's MLB action that has the Royals hosting the Tigers. Kansas City returned from the All-Star break and registered their first series sweep of the season, taking all 3 against the Twins at home. The Royals were swinging a hot bat going into the break and stayed hot at the plate with 15 runs in their 3 games against Minnesota. KC has now scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 8 games. Hard to not like their chances of putting up another big number here, as the Tigers send out the struggling Francisco Liriano, who has a 4.67 ERA in 15 starts overall and a 8.74 ERA and 2.030 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit also figures to score early and often in this one. The Royals will send out Heath Fillmyer for his second career start. Fillmyer allowed 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings in his big league debut. Take the OVER! |
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07-23-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 11 | 15-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Rangers UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's MLB action that has the Rangers hosting the A's. I know the pitching matchup isn't anything to get excited about with Cole Hamels facing off against Brett Anderson, but I just don't see these two teams combining for 12+ runs in this one. Neither team is hitting all that great of late. Oakland has a .222 team average over their last 7 games and the Rangers aren't much better at .256. Hamels is just 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA in 19 starts, but does have a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 7 starts against division opponents and a 2.93 ERA in 13 night starts this season. Anderson on the other hand has been a different pitcher since returning from the DL. He has a 3.24 ERA in 2 starts since coming back and I look for him to stay hot here. Anderson is well rested and the UNDER is 7-0-2 in his last 9 starts when throwing on 8 or more days of rest. UNDER is also 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. UNDER is 17-7-3 in Texas' last 27 games following a win and 9-3-1 in Hamels last 13 starts during game 1 of a series. Take the UNDER! |
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07-22-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +118 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Brewers I like the value here with the Brewers as a short home dog agains the Dodgers in Sunday's MLB action. Milwaukee put an end to their 7-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory over LA on Saturday and I look for them to carry over that momentum to this one. Dodgers will send out Alex Wood, who is just 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA in 9 road starts. He did pitch well in his last outing, but he's struggled to stack them on top of each other, as LA is just 3-7 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last outing. Milwaukee will send out Brent Suter and are a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Brewers are also 14-3 in their last 17 vs the NL West and 7-2 in their last 9 at home overall. Take Milwaukee! |
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07-21-18 | Giants +118 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
5* MLB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants I love the value here with San Francisco as an underdog at Oakland in Saturday's MLB action. This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Giants with their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner has a 2.90 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 8 starts and one of his better outings came against these A's back on July 13th. Bumgarner allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings of work. Oakland will counter with Trevor Cahill, who has a mere 4.16 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Giants. A's are also 1-5 in Cahill's last 6 starts. Giants are also 21-6 in their last 27 games vs a right-handed starter and 4-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs a team from the AL West. Take San Francisco! |
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07-20-18 | Twins v. Royals +124 | 5-6 | Win | 124 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Royals + I like the value here with the Royals as a decently priced home dog against the Twins in Friday's MLB action. Kansas City is clearly one of the worst teams in the league, but this is just too good a price to pass up on with hot starter like Danny Duffy on the mound. Duffy really struggled early in 2018, but posted a 2.84 ERA in his final 3 starts before the All-Star break and is a guy we know has plus stuff. Minnesota is also not an elite team and shouldn't be getting this much respect on the road. The Twins are just 16-29 away from home on the season and a mere 5-17 in their last 22. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Kansas City! |
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07-20-18 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Red Sox OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's MLB action that has the Red Sox visiting the Tigers. Boston is capable of scoring 9+ runs every time they take the field and I expect a big day at the plate for the Red Sox in this one. Detroit will start Matt Boyd, who is just 4-8 with a 4.76 ERA in 18 starts and posted an ugly 7.87 ERA in his final 3 starts before the All-Star break. Boyd also owns a 7.30 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in 3 career starts against Boston. The key here is that we should also get some decent run production from the Tigers, as the Red Sox send out the struggling David Price. In his final 3 starts before the break, Price posted an awful 9.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. He's now got a 4.42 ERA in 19 starts overall and a 4.96 ERA in 11 starts away from home. OVER is 22-8 in Price's last 30 road starts against a AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the 2nd half of the season. Take the OVER! |
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07-19-18 | Cardinals +145 v. Cubs | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Cardinals No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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07-15-18 | Nationals -128 v. Mets | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nationals - I love the value here with the Nationals as a small road favorite against the Mets in Sunday's series finale before the All-Star break. Washington will be extra motivated here after dropping the last two games in the series and will have a big edge on the mound in this one. The Nationals send out Jeremy Hellickson, who is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 8 road starts. New York counters with Corey Oswalt, who is 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 3 starts. Hellickson is 16-6 in his last 22 starts agains the money line when facing an NL team with a OBP of .315 or worse. Take Washington! |
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07-14-18 | A's v. Giants -111 | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Giants - I like the value here with the Giants as a small home favorite against the A's. San Francisco won the series opener 7-1 on Friday and are now 4-1 in their last 5. I look for them to build off that big win yesterday. The Giants will send out Jeff Samardzija, who will be making his second start back from the DL. Samardzija should be in good form for this one. SF will counter with Brett Anderson, who is just 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 5 starts this season. A's are just 2-9 in Anderson's last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game and 3-7 in his last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take San Francisco! |
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07-14-18 | Angels v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on over
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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07-13-18 | A's +149 v. Giants | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Oakland I like the value here with the A's as a decently priced road dog against the Giants. San Francisco is overvalued here as the public loves to back aces, especially a top name like Madison Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has been solid in his 7 starts since returning from the DL, he wasn't sharp in his last start at home against the Cardinals, giving up 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 1/3 innings. Oakland on the other hand is one of the hottest teams in the league going into the All-Star break. The A's have won 13 of their last 16 games and have started out 5-2 on their 10-game road trip with the first two series against the Indians and Astros. The A's will send out the red-hot Edwin Jackson for this game. Jackson has a 2.45 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 3 starts and will be facing a Giants offense that managed just 7 runs in their last series at home against the Cubs. Take Oakland! |
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07-13-18 | Nationals +118 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nationals + I like the value here with Washington as a decently priced road dog against the Mets. New York is getting a lot of love here with Noah Syndergaard on the mound, but he's making his first start off the DL. Syndergaard last started a game on 5/25. There's a good chance he struggles to shake off the rust in his first start back. Washington will counter with Tanner Roark, who has posted a solid 3.34 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 9 road starts. Of even more Importance is how well Roark has pitched against the Mets in his career. He's 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 13 career starts. Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, while the Mets are just 6-20 in their last 26 home games. Take Washington! |
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07-13-18 | Blue Jays +200 v. Red Sox | 13-7 | Win | 200 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a massive road dog against the Red Sox. Boston comes in having won 10 straight, but I think we could see that win streak snapped here with today's pitching matchup. Toronto will send out Ryan Borucki, who has really thrown the ball well since being added to the rotation on 6/26. Borucki has a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 3 starts and has not allowed more than 2 runs in a single start and pitched at least 6 innings in all 3 outings. Boston will counter with Rick Porcello, who has been struggling a bit of late with a 4.34 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Porcello also owns a less than impressive 4.81 ERA in 22 career starts against the Blue Jays. Take Toronto! |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a massive road dog against the Red Sox in Thursday's MLB action. Boston comes in having won 9 straight, which I feel has them way overvalued here. The Red Sox will send out David Price, who has really struggled in his last two starts. Price has allowed 12 runs on 15 hits (6 HRs) in just 8 innings of work. Something clearly isn't right with Price and I think there's a good chance those struggles continue here. Toronto will counter with J.A. Happ, who has saved his best for the road this season. Happ is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 7 road starts. Happ is also an impressive 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 17 career starts against the Red Sox. That includes an earlier start against Boston this season, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits with 10 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. Take Toronto! |
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07-11-18 | Cardinals -135 v. White Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Cards - I love the value here with the Cardinals laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the White Sox. St Louis stayed hot at the plate with 14 runs in yesterday's 14-2 win over Chicago and are now averaging 6.9 runs/game and hitting .303 as a team in their last 7. The White Sox on the other hand have dropped 6 in a row and are hitting a mere .218 as at team over their last 7. I expect another comfortable win for the Cardinals in this one. ST Louis will send out Luke Weaver, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season at San Francisco. Weaver allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits in 8 innings against the Giants. Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon, who is just 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 6 starts. Take St Louis! |
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07-11-18 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Phillies UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's MLB action that has the Mets hosting the Phillies. These two teams combined for 10 runs on Tuesday, but that was with a couple of guys making their first ever big league starts. Prior to that both teams had been struggling at the plate. The Phillies had scored 3 or fewer in each of their previous 4 and the Mets have scored a whopping 8 runs in their last 5 games combined. I look for both offense to struggle to score in this one. The Mets will send out Jacob deGrom, who has been one of the best pitchers in the game with a 1.79 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 18 starts. Phillies will counter with Vincent Velasquez, who has been outstanding away from home. Velasquez has a 2.79 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 7 road starts. UNDER is 12-3 in the Philadelphia's last 15 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-5 in the Mets last 19 vs a right-handed starter and 6-0-1 in deGrom's last 7 starts vs a division opponent. Take the UNDER! |