5* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto -

The Raptors are a team that I think is flying under the radar early on this season and they come into this game red-hot having won 4 straight and are 6-1 over their last 7 with the only loss a 1-point defeat to the Celtics. They have covered each of their last 4 games and I look for them to make it 5 in a row here tonight against a Knicks team they manhandled in a 107-84 win at home last Friday. 

New York is playing better than expected so far this season, as they are 9-7 through their first 16 games. However, none of their wins are all that impressive, as they have beat up on a lot of bad teams at home during this stretch. I still think this team has a long way to go to compete with the top tier teams like the Raptors. I just feel they are getting way too much respect right now and it's only a matter of time before they return to their losing ways. 

Toronto has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games this season. The Raptors also seem to save their best for division opponents, as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs teams from the Atlantic Division. NY on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division games. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -

I believe all the negative talk early with Cleveland has the Cavs showing great value right now and I really like them here as a short road favorite against the Knicks. While Cleveland is just 3-2 in their last 5, they are painfully close to having a 5-game winning streak, as both losses came by 4-points or less and one of those was at red-hot Houston. New York has been playing well here of late, but most of that has come against bad teams. Everyone knows LeBron loves playing at the Garden and there's extra incentive here for the Cavs after that ugly 95-114 loss at home to these Knicks in the most recent meeting. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers +

I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. 

The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number. 

You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets -

I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start. 

Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg. 

Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors -

There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals.

It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics +

Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field).

How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavaliers -

I know this is a huge number and the Celtics just won outright as an even bigger dog in Game 3, but I just don't see this game being competitive. Cleveland did whatever they wanted in the first two games of the series, including that epic beatdown in Game 2, where they were up by 50. If they were going to suffer a letdown, it was going to be Game 3 and while it happened, they still had a 20+ point lead in the 2nd half.

A 100% locked in Cleveland team will take the floor tonight and no one is going to be more motivated than LeBron James, who has been hearing nothing but how poorly he played in Game 3. I think we could see another massive blowout here and I'm confident that the Cavaliers wins here by 20+ points. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll take my chances with the Warriors closing this series out in fashion, much like they did in the first two rounds on the road. Up 3-0 on the Blazers in Round 1, Golden State defeated Portland 128-103. In the next round, up 3-0 on the Jazz, they crushed Utah on the road 121-95. I expect a similar outcome here and wouldn't be shocked if got ugly. San Antonino gave it all they had in Game 3 without Khawi and lost by 12 and with him still sidelined and David Lee also now out, I just don't see the Spurs truly believing they can come back and make this a series.

As for Golden State, they got a great reminder of what can happen when you take your foot off the gas with the Celtics improbable win yesterday. They also now have a chance to get some extra rest on Cleveland before the finals, who still has to play at least two more games. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -

I was all over Cleveland in Game 1 and I just can't go against them after what I saw in the opener. As I mentioned in my analysis for Game 1, the Cavs are taking note of everything the Warriors are doing and want to match their perfect 10-0 start to the postseason.The last thing they want is to have this series drag out before taking on Golden State.

I know this team struggled some with Indiana, but they were in the process of turning on that playoff switch after not playing well to close out the regular season. They made easy work of a very good Toronto team in the next round and did whatever they wanted to the Celtics on Wednesday. I truly believe Boston has to play their best just to keep this game close and could do so and still not cover this spread.

LeBron James is playing out of his mind and when he's locked in like this, there's no stopping this team, at least in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind this is a Cavs team that is fresh right now, having played a mere 9 games in over a month (played first playoff game on 4/15). Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Cavs -

Don't think for a second that Cleveland isn't taking notice of the Warriors and their perfect 10-0 start. The Cavs also went a perfect 8-0 in the first two rounds and I'm not buying this team coming out flat. Not after watching how Golden State struggled after their long layoff in Game 1 against the Spurs. Cleveland also has a little extra motivation, as they are trying to take control of home court in the series.

The Cavs won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season and I think the most telling of those games was the most recent one on April 5th. At that time these two were neck and neck for the No. 1 seed in the east. Cleveland didn't just go into Boston and beat the Celtics, they dominated them 114-91, easily covering at a near identical line to what we are getting here in Game 1. It's also worth noting the only game the Cavs lost in the regular season series was a 99-103 defeat at Boston, where they shot a miserable 40% from the field.

All of this and we haven't got to the fact that this is a difficult spot for Boston. The Celtics just finished up a grueling 7-game series against the Wizards on Monday. The Cavs haven't played since 5/7. They had a similar layoff between the 1st and 2nd round and won Game 1 over the Raptors rather easily. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

It's unfortunate what happened with Kawhi Leonard in Game 1, but it was clear that his absence changed everything. It's not so much his scoring that San Antonio missed, but his defense. Sure the rest of the Spurs are going to come out motivated, but this is the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is too talented and respects the game too much to take this one for granted. They haven't forgot what San Antonio did to the Rockets on the road without Leonard to close out their previous series and how this team jumped all over them to start Game 1. I expect a much different Warriors team from the tip and let's face it, this is the most talented team in the league and I just feel it's going to be too much for the Spurs without Leonard to keep this one competitive. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs +

As good as the Warriors have looked in the first two rounds, I think they are going to have a much more difficult time getting past the Spurs. San Antonio just eliminated the Rockets on the road without their best player and did so in blowout fashion. That's a direct credit to Popovich and the system the Spurs have in place. Not that the Spurs are talented, but they aren't on the same level as these Warriors. However, coaching and execution on both sides of the ball will give them a shot. More than anything their defense and ability to keep the Warriors from just unloading 3-pointers. I'm not saying the Spurs win Game 1 on the road, but I do think it's a close game and they cover the near double-digit spread. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Wizards -

As stated in previous writeups for this series, there's such a big home court edge. Both teams rely a lot on their role players and those guys just play better at home. A big part of that is also because both of these teams also take a lot of jump shots and shooting percentages are almost always going to be better at home than on the road. Boston shot 51.1% in both Game 1 and Game 2, then shot 35.1% and 44.3% in games 3 & 4 in Washington, only to return to form an hit 52.9% at home in Game 5. Washington had one of it's worst shooting performances of the season in Game 5, hitting just 38.5% of their shots. Yet they still managed to score 101 points. Prior to that they had scored 111 or more in each of the previous 4. I look for their offense to return to form at home and the Celtics to struggle. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics -

I look for the Celtics to take back control of the series tonight. Washington won the last two, but both of those came at home. They lost each of the first two in Boston and I think with the shift back to Boston the Celtics will be the sharper team. Both of these teams rely a lot on role players and those guys just perform better at home. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Celtics won this series 4-3 with the road team losing all 7. With that said, I also expect a big game here from Boston's Isaiah Thomas, who totaled just 32 points in the two games in Washington after scoring 86 in the first two in Boston. I also like that the media is hyping up how much the Wizards starters are outplaying the Celtics. Adds even more of edge here for them. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs -

Each of the first 4 games in this series have been decided by 10 or more points and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued here with San Antonio taking Game 5 at home in convincing fashion. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 on their home floor, the Spurs responded by taking games 2 and 3 by locking down defensively. They got away from that in Game 4, plus the Rockets were the much more desperate team, trying to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I look for Popovich and the Spurs to make the proper defensive adjustments from Game 4 and win here by more than the number. It's also worth throwing out there that the Spurs are 81-28 (74%) in home playoff games since they moved to the AT&T Center back in 2002. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

It's amazing how much this series has shifted since the Rockets blowout win on the road in Game 1. As good as the Spurs have looked in the last two games, my money is on Houston to regain some of that form from the opener and tie this series up at 2-2. San Antonio has done a tremendous job holding the Rockets offense in check the last two games, but I don't see it happening three times in a row, especially on the road. A big part of Houston's struggles in Game 3, was they simply didn't make shots, as they were a mere 36.4% from the field. I also like that the Rockets are now the more desperate team in the series, as I think they got a bit to comfortable with how easy it was in Game 1. Take Houston!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Jazz +

I like the value here with the Jazz as a pretty decent sized home dog against the Warriors. Utah has shown some flashes against Golden State in this series and should get a big lift from this series shifting to their home floor. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Warriors, who have yet to lose in the playoffs, still without their head coach and playing on the road in one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play. I think there's a decent chance the Jazz wins this game outright, but I'll take the points for some extra insurance. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

This has been an interesting series to start. Houston did whatever they wanted in a blowout win in Game 1 on the road, only to turn around and get beat badly on the road in Game 2. I still like what I saw from the Rockets in the opener to back them at this price in Game 3 at home. Houston simply didn't shoot the ball well in Game 2 and failed to match the intensity of the Spurs. I expect a much more focused Rockets team tonight and those outside shots tend to fall at a higher rate at home. I'm confident the Spurs aren't going to hold them under 100 points for a second straight game. Another huge factor here is the loss of Tony Parker for San Antonio. While he's a far cry from his prime, it's never easy replacing minutes lost at the point guard position. Take Houston!

5* Celtics/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Wizards -

I really like the Wizards to not only beat Boston in Game 3 at home, but I think they put away the Celtics in convincing fashion. Washington let two golden opportunities to steal one in Boston get away, as they had control of both of those games early and just couldn't finish off the Celtics in the 4th quarter. That was on the road, where the Wizards aren't the same team as they are at home. I look for Washington to once again get up early and this time finish the job. Keep in mind that all the motivation is with the Wizards down 0-2. As for Boston, this is a huge let down spot for them. They have won 6 straight overall and just stole two in a row at home. Keep in mind the Wizards were a perfect 3-0 at home against the Hawks in round 1. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +

Toronto came up short in Game 1, but that proved to be a great spot for the Cavs off the long lay off. The Raptors lackluster defense and poor shooting night didn't help matters. Toronto is primed for a much better effort in Game 2 and I look for the Raptors to make the proper adjustments here to play a more competitive game from start to finish. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Raptors won this game or at least had a chance to take control late in the 4th quarter. DeRozan and Lowry only combined for 39 points and the Raptors lost by 11. I think those two are closer to 50 tonight. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

I got no problem laying the big number with Golden State in this one. I don't think the Jazz are going to make this much of a series. The Warriors are simply too talented. The Warriors have had over a week to rest up, practice and get back some of that chemistry with Durant. As good as Utah is defensively, I just don't think they are going to be able to much to slow down Golden State in this one. Keep in mind we are talking about a Jazz team that just laid it all on the line Sunday in LA to close out the Clippers on the road in Game 7. Getting only 1 day to rest and get focused on the Warriors isn't enough time. I think this gets ugly in a hurry. Take Golden State!

5* Raptors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

I know Cleveland has had over a week off since they swept the Pacers, but I think that rest actually hurts them. While the Cavs swept Indiana, they were far from dominant in the series. In fact, Cleveland's largest win in the series was 6-points. Keep in mind that this is a team that really struggled down the stretch. I still think there's major concerns with their defense, which allowed the Pacers to score 100+ in all 4 games. Toronto didn't look great early on against a talented young Bucks team, but they closed out Milwaukee with 3 straight wins and I think they matchup really well with Cleveland. While the Cavs went 3-1 in the regular season and rested their stars in the only loss, all 3 of Cleveland's wins came by 4-poitns or less. I wouldn't be shocked if the Raptors won this game outright. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

It's been well documented that the home team has the advantage in Game 7 and going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team has gone 28-16 (64%) against the spread when the series reaches the winner take all stage. I know the Clippers are without one of their stars in Blake Griffin, but as long as they have a healthy Chris Paul they are going to be a top level team. LA avoided elimination on the road in Game 6 and did so by shooting an impressive 49% from the field. Everyone loves to talk about Utah's defense, but the Clippers have held the Jazz to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last two games. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 5 games in this series and I don't see that trend coming to an end tonight. Atlanta won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double-digits at home and could have easily won all 3 games in Washington. I just think the Wizards are getting way to much respect here with the Hawks basically at a pick'em with the line less than 3 points. Atlanta did cover in a loss in Game 5 and that's worth noting, as Washington is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after failing to cover the number in their last game. Hawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks -

I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Raptors. The Bucks are facing elimination here and while they struggled to keep in close in Game 5 at Toronto, Milwaukee has proven they can hold their own against these Raptors and I look for them to not only win here but to do so in blowout fashion. Toronto simply shot lights out in Game 5, as they finished the game 57.7% from the field. I look for those shooting numbers to go way down on the road against a good Bucks defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans. Bucks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls +

I know Chicago just dropped both games at home without Rondo, but I still think the value is with the Bulls in Game 5. While Rondo won't return, I think Chicago found something that worked without him in game 4 with Isaiah Canaan and letting Butler take over more responsibility at the point. The Bulls also shot the ball poorly from long distance in both games at home and I look for them to connect on a few more with an offense that works. I also think Boston relies too much on Thomas to carry the load and I believe he's got to play exceptional for the Celtics to win here in a blowout. Bulls are 11-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Boston is a mere 5-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers -

I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite. Note that I cashed in on the Jazz in Game 4. Even without Blake Griffin, I still think Los Angeles has enough talent to win at home over a team like Utah. As long as the Clippers have a healthy Chris Paul, they will be a difficult out. Utah just isn't the same team on the road and let's also not forget Gordon Hayward is likely playing here at less than 100%. He's the one guy Utah needs to play well to win on the road. Los Angeles is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the Jazz are 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with Atlanta at basically a pick'em at home. This is one of those series where I wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance with the home team winning every game. Washington just isn't the same team on the road as they are at home and Atlanta isn't getting near enough respect here. The Hawks won Game 3 116-98 and dominated from the start with a 38-20 first quarter. Let's not forget Atlanta played extremely well in both losses in Washington and could have easily won both of those games. I also like the adjustments the Hawks have put in play as the series has progressed. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after they failed to cover. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Western Conference Play of the Month on Jazz -

I really like the value here with Utah at basically a pick'em at home with what feels like their season on the line. The Jazz have lost the last two after stealing Game 1 on the road. They shouldn't have lost Game 3 at home, as they led by 13 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th. As most of you know, that win came at a cost for the Clippers. Blake Griffin suffered what they originally thought to be a minor injury, but he's out for the playoffs.

It's not so much that I don't think the Clippers feel they can't win this series without Griffin, but the undeniable feeling that they have to have when it comes to their chances of getting past the Warriors in the next round. With the win in Game 3 LA got back home court advantage and that only adds to this being such a big letdown spot for the Clippers and such a massive game for the Jazz. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics

I was leaning towards taking Boston prior to the news that Rondo was going to be out for the Bulls, but that only strengthens this selection. Rondo might not be considered an elite player anymore, but he was playing like one in this series and is someone who is known for taking his game to another level in the postseason. Not having him on the floor is going to make it difficult for Chicago to get into a flow offensively. It will be a lot more of Butler and Wade playing 1-on-1.

At the same time, we are going to get everything the Celtics have to offer, as they know they can't afford to go down 3-0, especially with Chicago missing such a key player. Boston just wasn't themselves in the first two games and a lot of that was the unfortunate timing passing of Thomas' sister. I expect a much more focused Celtics team to take the floor and for them to win this one comfortably. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder +

I really like the value here with OKC as a big dog in Game 2 of this series. The Thunder lost Game 1 by a final of 87-118, despite only trailing by 5-points at the half. Just about everything that could go wrong in the 2nd half did. Not to mention Westbrook had an off night. I look for Westbrook to bounce back in a big way and for the Thunder as a team to make the proper adjustments to not only allow them to keep this game close, but potentially win outright. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics -

I have all the confidence in the Celtics evening up the series at 1-1 on their home floor and doing so in convincing fashion. I was all over the Bulls in Game 1, as I just thought it was a tough spot for Boston and their star Isaiah Thomas. I also don't think the Celtics gave Chicago the respect they deserved. I expect to see a completely different Boston team, as they simply can't afford to go down 2-0 with the series shifting to Chicago for Game 3.

Thomas actually played better than I expected given the circumstances in Game 1, but the rest of the Celtics didn't show up. On the flip side, the Bulls got a career game out of Bobby Portis, who scored 19 points off the bench on 8 of 10 shooting. I look for the Celtics bench to be the deciding factor here as this one could get ugly in a hurry if the Bulls struggle to find their outside shot. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers +

I was on the Pacers in their near win in Game 1 and will gladly back them at basically the same price in Game 2. I think Cleveland is good enough to win the east, but I don't think they are going to just flip a switch and dominate like a lot of people are expecting. Indiana believes they can win this series after their near victory in the opener and I believe will be the more desperate team here. Keep in mind that James was sensational in Game 1, scoring 32 points with 13 assists and 6 rebounds, yet they almost lost. As I've said multiple times now, the addition of Lance Stephenson was huge for the Pacers. They have been a different team since he joined the roster. I'll take the points to play it safe, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this series at 1-1. Take Indiana!

5* Thunder/Rockets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +

This is the series everyone is talking about, as we have the two MVP front-runners facing off with Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Houston has the better overall record, but I think they are getting way too much respect here. OKC isn't good enough to win it all, but this is definitely a series they could pull off. As we saw last year, the physical play of the postseason fits a lot of the Thunder's players and these two teams played 3 games that were decided by 3-points or less. I also think we are going to see a better OKC team in the playoffs, as they no longer have to worry about Westbrook and getting triple-doubles. They can just go out and play. My big concern with Houston is their defense and that they rely so much on the outside shot. Not saying you can't win being a jump shooting team, you just don't get near as many good looks in the playoffs. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

A lot of people forget how good the Clippers were playing early in the year before they had to deal with some big time injuries to their star players. Los Angeles got healthy when it matters the most and started to look more and more like that team we saw in October and November down the stretch. Note they won their final 7 games to overtake the Jazz for the No. 4 spot. As much as I love this Utah team, I think the playoffs could prove to be a problem for them. More than anything, I see this as one of those series where the home team has the big edge and I also think the Clippers are the more talented team. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

Cleveland has made it pretty clear that they have no interest in playing out the regular season with their starters, even though the No. 1 seed is technically still in play. The Cavs will not have the services of LeBron James and expect some of other stars to sit out or have their minutes greatly restricted. Toronto doesn't have anything to play for, but they at least have the majority of their starts in play. Raptors have been a money maker against the top level teams like Cleveland, as they are 9-1 ATS this season when facing a team that's won between 60%-70% of their games. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Northwest Game of the Month on Nuggets -

I really like the value here with Denver at home against the Thunder. While Oklahoma City is locked into the No.6 seed and just playing for Westbrook to get one more triple-double, this is basically a playoff game for the Nuggets. Denver is currently 1.5-games back of the Blazers for the 8th and final spot and need to win this game to stay alive. It's also worth noting that Denver is not an easy place to play with tired legs and the Thunder figure to be a bit fatigued playing their 3rd straight away from home. Last time out OKC allowed the Suns to shoot 51.8% in a 21-point loss and the Nuggets come in having shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Take Denver!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks +

I think we are getting some great value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. I believe we are seeing an inflated line here with Cleveland having covered 3 of their last 4 and fresh off a dominant showing a 114-91 win at Boston on Wednesday. The Cavs played it off as if it was another game, but they clearly got up for that contest. I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here, as they are sitting pretty good with the No. 1 seed.

The Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but don't have the luxury of taking a night off right now. While Atlanta is currently 5th in the east standings, they are just 2-games ahead of 9th place Miami with 4 to play. It's also worth noting that the Hawks have played Cleveland well this season. They are 1-1 with a win at Cleveland and their loss coming by just 5-points at home. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers -

The addition of Lance Stephenson might not seem like much for the Pacers, but I think it's just what they needed to secure one of the final spots in the east playoff race. Stephenson gives this team a physical edge and constant energy that they were lacking. Indiana comes in off a comfortable 108-90 home win over the Raptors and I look for a similar outcome here against the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost 79-110 at OKC and are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe a big part of their struggles is the absence of rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon. The other big thing here is that the Pacers play like an elite team at home, where they are 27-12 on the season. Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 25-13 in their last 38 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets +

I really like the value here with Denver as a near double-digit dog against the Rockets. The Nuggets can move into a tie with the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west and they have to believe they can overtake Portland after they lost a big piece in Jusuf Nurkic. Houston is simply coasting into the postseason, as they are locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. While I expect the starters to play for the Rockets, there's just nothing to get motivated for in this one and I think there's going to be a minutes restriction on all the key rotation players. Take Denver! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Vegas Insider Top Play on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando as a near double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. Cleveland comes in off a thrilling 135-130 double-overtime win at home against the Pacers on Sunday. LeBron played 52 minutes and the other 4 starters all had 37 or more with 3 eclipsing 40 minutes. I believe this game against the Magic becomes a massive letdown spot for the Cavs with a massive road game on deck tomorrow night in Boston. I'm not saying the Magic win this game, but I don't see the kind of effort here from Cleveland to make this a blowout. It's also worth noting that Orlando has continued to play hard down the stretch. I would expect them to show up against the defending champs. Cavs are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last 2 at home and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a game where they won but failed to cover as a favorite. Take Orlando!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

I really like the value here with Toronto at home against the Pacers. The Raptors laid an egg last time out in a 106-110 home loss to the Hornets and I believe it has some people doubting them going into this game against Indiana. Prior to that loss Toronto had won 6 straight and were playing their best basketball since losing Lowry. I look for the Raptors to bounce back in a big way here, as they fight for the No. 3 spot in the east. I know the Pacers have a lot to play for as well, but they are a horrible road team and dealing with some injuries right now. Keep in mind these two teams played in Toronto recently on 3/19 and Toronto won 116-91. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Toronto!

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Blazers +

I really like the value here with Portland as a home dog against the Rockets in a nationally televised game on TNT. Houston comes into this game off a 106-113 loss at home to the Warriors, which was a game they definitely wanted to win. With a rematch on deck at Golden State tomorrow, I just don't see Houston being all that interested in this game. Keep in mind the Rockets are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. There's a chance that Houston could rest some players or limit their minutes. Portland on the other hand is in a battle for the No. 8 spot in the west, which they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Nuggets. Most importantly the Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 4 straight and 12-3 in their last 15 overall. Take Portland!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on the road against the 76ers. Atlanta snapped a 7-game losing streak with a win at home over the Suns last night and I look for them to carry over that momentum against Philadelphia. The 76ers also won last night at Brooklyn, but are playing short-handed right now and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity needed to win here on no rest. Note that these two teams have played 3 times this season and all 3 have been blowout wins for the Hawks. Atlanta won 104-72 at Philadelphia on 10/29, 117-96 at home on 11/12 and 110-93 at home on 1/21. Hawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-5 in their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pacers -

I really like the value here with Indiana as a relatively short home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pacers are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Indiana is 26-11 at home compared to 11-25 on the road. They simply aren't getting enough respect here at home against a struggling Minnesota team that has lost 6 straight and are just 10-25 on the road this season. Part of the problem for the Timberwolves is reality is setting in that they are going to miss out on the playoffs, which is a big disappointment. Indiana is currently 7th in the east, but are just 2.5 games from 9th. The Pacers can't afford to lose here and I look for a big time effort from them in this one. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs +

Dallas is showing some great value here as a short home dog against the Thunder. Most are going to just expect Oklahoma City to bounce back after yesterday's loss to the Rockets, but I don't think that's going to be the case. The Thunder have to be a bit gassed here after yesterday's up-tempo matchup with Houston, which saw a combined 262 points scored. Dallas is the much more rested team, as they are in the midst of a 4-game homestand and haven't played back-to-back games since playing on 3/10 and 3/11. Dallas is also a much better team at home and the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road, where they are just 14-21 this season. Mavs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 200 to 209.5. Take Dallas!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets +

These two teams just played in Denver on Saturday and the Rockets pulled out a 109-105 win as a mere 2-point favorite. Now they return to Houston to play again and this time the Rockets are laying close to double-digits. I think the value here is clearly with the Nuggets, who I believe are going to be the more motivated team. Not only is Denver out for revenge, but they are trying to hold on to the No. 8 spot in the west. Houston on the other hand doesn't have a ton of motivation here. The Rockets are pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed in the west, as they are 5.5-games back of the Spurs and 5 games ahead of Utah with just 12 games to play. Not to mention This is the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights and will get a full 3-days off after this contest. Take Denver!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks +

New York is showing great value here as a short home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana is just 11-22 on the road and while the Knicks have been a disappointment they shouldn't be a dog here. The Pacers come in off a 102-98 home win over the Heat, which actually only adds more value to the Knicks, as Indiana is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after a win. Pacers are also a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. New York's last game was against the Nets and the Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing a division opponent in their previous game. Take New York!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers -

I really like the value here with the Blazers as a relatively short home favorite against the Wizards. This is a big time flat spot for Washington, who will be playing on no rest after an overtime win last night against the Kings. A game that saw both Wall and Beal log over 40 minutes. Note this is also the Wizards 4th game in 5 nights. I just don't see the Wizards having the energy to match the Blazers in this one. Portland has really been playing well of late. The Blazers enter having won 4 straight. Washington is just 14-30 ATS in their last 54 after 2 or more consecutive road wins and the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against  a team that's won more than 60% of their games Take Portland! 

5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Heat -

I really like the value here with the Heat as a short home favorite against division rival Charlotte. Miami continues to play like a completely different team that opened the season looking like one of the worst teams in the league. The books are slower to adjust on bad teams, which is evident by the fact that Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Most will assume they will be in line for a letdown off back-to-back wins over the Cavs, but I don't believe it. The Hornets are a team that are right on their heels in the east playoff race and Miami will be out for double-revenge having lost each of the two meetings this season. The Hornets have won 3 of their last 4, but it's more of the schedule than them turning things around. Charlotte is just 1-8 ATS this season after covering the spread in each of their last 2 games, while the Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 off an upset win and 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a same season loss. Take Miami!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder -

I like OKC to bounce back with a statement win at home against the Blazers tonight. The Thunder enter this contest off 3 straight losses and the last was an embarrassing 89-104 defeat at Dallas on Sunday. On top of that, Oklahoma City is going to be out for revenge here from a 109-114 loss at Portland back on 3/2. Needless to say the Thunder are going to bring their "A" game in this one. As for the Blazers, they have won their last two, but both were at home and this is a team that is just 10-22 on the road. Note that OKC is a dominant 23-8 at home.

Thunder are also 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 revenging a same season loss. Blazers are 6-16 ATS as a road dog this season and 3-11 when listed as a road dog of 6 or less. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Southwest Game of the Month on Spurs -

I really like the Spurs to go into New Orleans and lay a beating on the Pelicans tonight. New Orleans really struggled in their first 3 games with Cousins and it's just going to take some time for them to adjust. It was pretty evident how much they are off when Cousins sat our their last game because of a suspension and the Pelicans rolled to a 109-86 win. I do think the duo of Davis and Cousins is going to work, but it's going to take weeks before they get comfortable with each other.

The Spurs aren't the team you want to face when you are trying to find your way, especially with San Antonio likely coming out with a chip on their shoulder after a poor showing at home in a 1-point win over the Pacers. The Spurs also know a thing or two about winning away from home, as they are 26-7 on the road this season, which includes a 20-12 ATS mark. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls +

I really like the value here with the Bulls as a pretty big dog at home against the Warriors. We know we are going to get Chicago's best effort here in a nationally televised game against the team everyone wants to beat in Golden State. As for the Warriors, they are going to have to adjust to life without Durant for the rest of the regular season and I believe it's a bigger loss than people thing, as they just don't have the depth they did a year ago. Durant was also playing at a ridiculous level. Not to mention Curry has really been struggling of late.

The Bulls are just 30-30 overall, but this team has found a way to play their best against the better teams. Chicago also will be out for revenge from a 21 point loss at Golden State less than a month ago. Bulls are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a loss by 10 or more and the Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics +

I really like the value here with Boston at basically a pick'em at home against the Cavaliers. I think we saw just how important this game is to the Celtics with their lackluster performance in Monday's 98-114 home loss to the Hawks. Boston was clearly looking ahead to this matchup and I expect the Celtics and their fans to treat this like a playoff game. Cleveland won't lie down, but I just think they are going to struggle to match the intensity of Boston and let's not forget they are still missing a key piece to the puzzle in Kevin Love.

Cavs are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Cleveland is also a miserable 0-8 ATS this season when playing a road game after playing their previous 2 games at home. Take Boston!

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Kings +

Most just assume the Kings were throwing in the towel after they traded away Cousins, but what they forget is that for as good as Cousins was, he had almost the same negative effect on the team with his attitude, which is why Sacramento continued to be one of the worst teams in the league. I think the Kings are going to surprise some people down the stretch and let's not forget they won their first game at home without Cousins 116-100 over the Nuggets as a 6.5-point dog.

The Timberwolves are in a horrible spot here, as they get read to play their 3rd game in 4 nights after an extremely up-tempo game at Houston that saw 272 combined points in a 130-142 defeat. I just don't see Minnesota being locked in for this one and that makes the Kings great value here as a decently priced home dog vs a T-Wolves squad that is 8-18 on the road this season.

Minnesota is 14-40 ATS in their last 56 after scoring 120 or more points in their previous game and 13-26 ATS in their last 39 off a road loss by 10 or more. Kings are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento!

5* NBA Non Conference Game of the Month on Pacers +

I really like the value here with Indiana at basically a pick'em at home against the Grizzlies. The Pacers limped into the All-Star break with a 6-game losing streak and then had their best player rumored in multiple trades prior to yesterday's trade deadline. Some might view this as a negative, but I believe it's going to unite this team and have them playing inspired the rest of the way.

The biggest thing here is the Pacers just aren't getting enough respect for playing at home, where they are 20-10 SU on the season. Memphis does come in with a 16-13 road record, but they are just 11-22 ATS in their last 33 road games against a team with a wining record and a mere 3-16 ATS in road games against a marginal winning team like the Pacers with a win percentage between 51% to 60%. Take Indiana!

5* NBA No Limit Heavy Hitter Top Play on Wizards -

I like the value here with the Wizards laying a relatively short number at home against the Pacers. Washington was on an absolute roll before losing in OT to the Cavs at home. No surprise, they didn't play their best game after that crushing loss, but they still managed to win at Brooklyn. I look for Washington to return to form here against the Pacers, who are primed for a letdown after a crushing 117-132 loss at home to Cleveland, which snapped their 7-game winning streak.

Indiana hasn't exactly been great on the road this season, as the Pacers are just 9-16 away from home. Washington on the other hand has been lights out at home. They had won 17 straight prior to the loss to the Cavs and are 22-7 at home on the season.

Pacers are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 110 or more in their previous game, while the Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Take Washington!

5* NBA Late Night Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics +

Boston laid an egg in Sacramento last night, losing 82-108 as a 8.5-point favorite against a Kings team that was minus their best player in Boogie Cousins. Those performances are going to happen over an NBA season. The key here is that elite teams like the Celtics almost always bounce back after an ugly showing like that. I expect a completely different Boston team to show up tonight, especially with this game being a nationally televised contest on TNT.

This year's Blazers team still gets respect for how good they were a year ago, especially when playing at home, but the truth is they just aren't very good. Portland is only 14-11 SU at home on the season, which is the exact same record the Celtics have on the road. No rest for the Celtics has been no problem, as they are 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 when playing on 0 days rest. They are also 9-3-2 ATS last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Boston!

5* NBA Prime Time  (TNT) Game of the Week on Rockets -

I know this look like a big number to lay on Houston, but I think the Rockets are poised to blowout the Hawks at home. Atlanta hasn't been playing well of late. They are just 2-3 in their last 5 and could easily be on 5-game skid, as they stole a 119-114 win at Chicago (trailed by double-digits with like 3 mins to go) and escaped with a 4-OT win at home over a struggling Knicks team 142-139. Atlanta also comes in on no rest after a 93-116 loss at Miami last night and I just don't think this team has the legs or confidence to keep pace with the Rockets.

Houston will be out to make a statement here. One because they want to send a message to Dwight Howard and the other to get revenge from an ugly 97-112 loss at Atlanta in November. Rockets are 15-6 when revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 16-6 ATS after playing their previous game at home. Take Houston!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics -

I really like the value here with Boston at home against the Raptors. This is a key game for these two division rivals and right now just 1/2-game separates them. The key here is this is a really bad spot for the Raptors. Toronto is playing on no rest after a grueling 108-106 overtime game last night against the Pelicans, which saw Kyle Lowry log 45 minutes and all 5 starters with 30+. On top of that, they are short-handed right now with DeMar DeRozan sidelined.

Boston isn't going to care who the Raptors are paying, as they will be out for revenge. Toronto has already beat the Celtics twice this season, including a 101-94 win at Boston. I don't see that happening here, as the Celtics are playing very well right now, as they have won 4 straight and will be the much fresher team after a day off and no travel. Celtics are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a win by 6 or less. Take Boston!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Nets +

I really like the value here with the Nets as a near double-digit dog against the Heat. I know Miami has won 7 straight, which includes a 109-106 win at Brooklyn, where they covered as a 2.5-point favorite. The thing is, the Nets blew an 18-point lead in that game. I'm just not buying the Heat being a team that deserves to be laying this many points against any team. Add in that last meeting against Brooklyn was just last week, revenge is going to be fresh in the minds of the Nets. Too much value to pass up on the Nets in this one. Take Brooklyn!

5* NBA Situational Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets -

I look for the Hornets to take care of the Knicks tonight. Charlotte comes in off back-to-back losses. The last one was a hard fought defeat at home to the Warriors. The other was against the Wizards, who are playing as well as anyone right now. I believe it has the Hornets in a prime bounce back spot against a Knicks team that has lost its way.

New York has gone 4-14 over their last 18 games and the trade rumors with Melo aren't going to help turn this around. That's more of a sign that the team is throwing in the towel on this season. New York is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 as a home underdog of 6 or less and the road team has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Charlotte! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks -

The 76ers added to their incredible run of late with a 121-110 win at home over the Clippers last night, spoiling the return of Blake Griffin. That's now 9 wins in 12 games for Philadelphia. While I think this will continue to be a good team to back going forward, this spot is not one of them. The 76ers are playing on no rest, plus it will be their 4th game in the last 6 days overall. They won't have Joel Embiid for this contest and Jahlil Okafor is questionable. It reminds me a lot of their last road game, where they got crushed by 17 at Atlanta.

Milwaukee isn't going to take the 76ers lightly, as they come into this game 1-5 over their last 6. Though they did get a big win last time out in a 127-114 win at home over the Rockets. That's the kind of win you can build on. Another reason the Bucks won't overlook Philadelphia, is they just lost at home to the 76ers 104-113 back on 1/16. Keep in mind they were only a 8.5-favorite that time, so the books see this as a much bigger mismatch. 76ers are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a contest where both teams scored 100+ and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 0 days rest. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Raptors +1.5

I like the value here with the Raptors as a small road dog against the Hornets. Toronto is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after ending their 4-game winning streak with a 89-94 loss at Philadelphia. Charlotte on the other hand is getting a lot of love here after a 107-85 blowout win over the Blazers at home. Beating Portland by 20+ at home isn't anything to get overly excited about with the way the Blazers have struggled on the road this season. Let's not forget this Hornets team had lost their previous 5 games.

Toronto has lost consecutive games just 4 times this season. The common factor in all 4 is the second loss came when the Raptors were playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. That's not the case here tonight and I look for Toronto to find a way to win this one. Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Charlotte is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Toronto!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Knicks +

I like the value here with New York as a home dog against the Wizards. New York is coming off their best game in quite some time, as they went on the road an upset the Celtics 117-106 as a 8.5-point dog last night. The thing is, this team is still getting zero respect because of how bad they have been of late (3-11 L14). Washington also come in off a win last night over Memphis and have won 3 straight overall, but all 3 wins came at home. I look for the Wizards to struggle here in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, especially when you factor in that Washington is just 4-13 away from home on the season.

Wizards are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 off a close win by 3 points or less, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest. Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games after a division game last time out. Take New York!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings -

I like the value here with the Kings laying a short number at home against the Pacers. Sacramento is just 1-5 in their last 6, but are primed for a big effort here and will finally have some fresh legs playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days.

The big key here is the Pacers just aren't a good road team. Indiana has a winning overall record at 21-19, but are a mere 5-14 on the road and this is a long way from Indiana. Not to mention the Pacers are probably still filling the hangover effect from their trip to London last week.

Pacers are a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after a SU win, while the Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing a game as a home dog and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off a SU loss. Take Sacramento!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets -

I really like the value here with Charlotte laying what I feel is a low number on the road against the 76ers. I believe we are getting this short number due to the fact that the Hornets have lost 3 straight, while Philadelphia has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. I'm just not buying the 76ers being as good as this recent stretch and most of those wins came against bad teams. They were extremely fortunate to win their last game, which they trailed big throughout and were down 10 points with less than 3 minutes to play.

We should get a big time effort here from the Hornets, who will be playing with a full 2 days of rest and eager to put their 3-game skid behind them. Keep in mind all 3 losses during the streak have come on the road, the last two against two of the top teams in the west in Houston and San Antonio. This is also the first time 5 meetings that Charlotte has been favored by less than 9.5-points in this series (won 7 of 8). Hornets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, while the 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Knicks +

I really like the value here with the Knicks catching a pretty big number on the road against the Bucks. These two teams just played Wednesday in New York and the Bucks won 105-104 on a last second shot by Antetokounmpo. Having just lost head-to-head, the game now being played in Milwaukee and the Knicks now having lost 6 straight all have this line much higher than it should be. The team that loses the first of these home-and-home series has a big motivational edge in the rematch and even more so when the line is as high as it is.

It's also worth noting that previous game in New York came with the Knicks playing without Porzingis. He practiced fully yesterday and all signs point to him suiting up tonight. Even if he ends up sitting out, I still like the Knicks to cover here and think there's a good chance they can win outright.

We also find a strong system in play here. Road team that have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games and playing a team off a win by 6 or less are 33-8 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Timberwolves -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a much better team than their 11-23 record would indicate and a big part of that has been the inability to hold on to big leads. The Timberwolves have 9 losses this season where they led by double-digits. That includes their last game, where a 12-point halftime lead turned into a 89-95 loss at home to the Blazers. I think that loss is playing into this low number here and creating great value with Minnesota in a huge bounce back spot.

Philadelphia comes in off a 124-122 win at Denver, but have won back-to-back games just twice all season. I don't see it happening here, as this is a really bad matchup for the 76ers. Keep in mind the Timberwolves already annihilated Philadelphia 110-86 at home earlier this season and they were a 11.5-point favorite, which means they should be laying closer to 7.5 instead of 4.5 here.

76ers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 20 or more points, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -

The Bucks jumped on the Bulls early at home last night and cruised to a 108-97 win, easily covering the spread as a pick'em. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Chicago come out flat, as they knew they were going to get Milwaukee on their home court tonight. The biggest thing with these home-and-home matchups is making sure you get at least a split. So while the Bulls are going to come out extremely motivated here, the Bucks will struggle to bring that same intensity they had last night.

Another big key here is this Chicago team has shown that when they are motivated and want to play well, more times than not they deliver. Prime examples being their recent home wins over both the Cavs and Spurs. It's also worth pointing out the Bucks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Milwaukee is 9-6 at home, compared to 3-6 on the road. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with Detroit against a bad Mavericks team. The Pistons have been playing some of their best basketball here of late, as they are 7-4 in their last 11. I look for them to be extra motivated here after an embarrassing showing at home in a 79-97 loss to the 76ers. Detroit hasn't lost back-to-back games since the middle of November and I don't expect that streak to end here.

Dallas is still without three key pieces in Nowitzki, Barea, and Bogut and are going to struggle to be competitive without them in the lineup. The Mavericks are getting some love here off a 20-point blowout win at home against the Nuggets, but they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November. Last time they followed up a win over the Pacers with a 22-point blowout loss to the Rockets. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Detroit laid a similar type of beating on them here.

Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite and have won these games by almost 8.0 ppg. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks -

I'll gladly back the Bucks at home against the slumping Hawks. Atlanta was able to snap a 7-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at home against the Heat, but that's nothing to get excited about, as Miami was missing half their roster. The Hawks are now just 2-10 in their last 12 after starting out the season 9-2. While Atlanta is trending down, Milwaukee comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Bucks have won 5 of 6, with the only loss coming against the Spurs at home by a single point. Milwaukee bounced back two nights later and defeated the Blazers 115-107.

When things are going bad in Atlanta it's a good idea to keep fading them, as the Hawks are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 under head coach Budenholzer when they come into a contest having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing with 1 day of rest. It's also worth pointing out the Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in the series and the home team has covered 4 of the last 5. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value here with Boston laying a short number here on the road against the Magic. The Celtics could be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas, but are well equipped to play without him, as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley can all bring the ball up the court if needed.

Orlando comes in having won 3 straight, but two of those wins came against bad team in the 76ers and Wizards and the other was against the Pistons in a huge flat spot after a long road trip and big game against the Bulls on deck. Now it's the Magic who are in a flat spot, as they just played 5 straight on the road and have to return home on no rest after playing last night in Washington.

While Orlando is poised for a bad showing, we should get a strong effort here from the Celtics off a 1-point loss at Houston. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games since early November and are 4-1 ATS in L5 off a loss. They are also a solid 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (5-1 L6)  on the road, while the Magic are just 4-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season. Celtics are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Boston!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. The Bucks come into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Milwaukee has won 4 straight, which includes a 118-101 blowout win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect to see that same intensity when the Bucks take the floor here against the Spurs.

San Antonio comes in having won 11 of their 12 games, but are not blowing teams out like they have in years past. Out of those 11 wins, only one of them came by double-digits and that was a mere 12-point win at Washington. This has also been a very favorable stretch for the Spurs, as they haven't faced a lot of good teams during their recent run. I think Milwaukee is not only capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but can certainly win this game outright.

Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Nuggets -

This is an ideal spot to back Denver at home against the Rockets. You might be asking yourself why Houston is a dog against a team that has 5 fewer wins them after they just knocked off the Warriors last night in Golden State. The answer is this this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rockets. It was going to be hard enough bouncing back from that game against the Warriors, but add in the fact that it took double-overtime and they simply aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Nuggets.

Only adding value is that Denver is one of the more difficult places to play in the second leg of a back-to-back, as the thin air only makes it that much harder for teams to play well when fatigued. It wouldn't shock me if Houston decided to just throw in the towel here and rest some players, as Harden, Anderson and Ariza all logged at least 43 minutes last night. Even Eric Gordon off the bench put in 39 minutes. Whether they play or not, I look for Denver to win here comfortably.

The Nuggets haven't played up to their potential early on, as they are just 7-11, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Denver is finally starting to get healthy. I've also really been impressed with rookie reserve Jamal Murray, who just took down the Rookie of the Month honors in the west.

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 or more points in 5 straight games. Take Denver!

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Week on Bulls -

This is going to seem like a big number for Chicago to be laying at home against a Lakers team that has surprised early this season, but the situation calls for a blowout win by the Bulls. Chicago is rested up and ready to get back to action after a 4-day break following their 6-game road trip. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played in New Orleans last night. This is also the Lakers 3rd game in the last 4 days and 6th in the last 9.

LA has been trending in the wrong direction of late, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7. It doesn't figure to get much better going forward, as the Lakers continue to be without starting point guard D'Angelo Russell. They also figure to be without Nick Young, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. It also wouldn't come as a surprise if they decided to sit out Julius Randle in a back-to-back scenario, as he just returned from a knee injury.

These two teams recently played in Los Angeles and the Bulls won 118-110, which I think is a good sign of what's to come here. Keep in mind Chicago won by 8 playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, which was also their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in a 4 day stretch. With the Lakers injuries and the Bulls strong play at home (4-1), this should get ugly in a hurry. Take Chicago!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets -

This is all about the situation and it heavily favors the Hornets. These two teams played last night in New York, with the Knicks winning 113-111 in overtime. Now they head to Charlotte for a rematch and the Hornets are clearly going to be the more motivated team after losing yesterday.

The Knicks come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but all 5 of those wins came at home. The lone loss was on the road to a bad Wizards team by 7-points. New York has really struggled to play well away from home, as they are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS on the highway this season. I know the Hornets comes in having lost 4 straight, but this is a much better team than their recent form would suggest. This is a huge statement game for the Hornets and I expect them to deliver with a double-digit win. Take Charlotte -6!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets -

We are getting a great price here on Charlotte as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. This Hornets team has been playing extremely well to start the season. They are T-5th in scoring differential at 5.5 ppg. They are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against the Celtics, Raptors and Cavaliers. The key here is the public doesn't view them as an elite team and we are catching a great number here due to them losing their last two.

It also helps that Minnesota is fresh off a 125-99 blowout win at home over the Lakers. The Timberwolves were a popular pick to surprise this season, but that hasn't been the case, as they are just 3-6 through 9 games. I believe the difference here is going to be defense, as both teams are strong offensively. Charlotte ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves come in at 24th. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets defensive has really come to life on the road, as they are allowing just 95.5 ppg away from home. On top of that, we should get a big time effort here, as they try to avoid a third straight loss.

The Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Charlotte!

5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -

It's amazing how little attention the Clippers are getting right now. Los Angeles is 7-1 and getting it done on both sides of the floor. The Clippers are averaging 105.1 ppg, while allowing just 88.2 ppg. It's the way they are playing defensively that has impressed me, they are #1 in defensive efficiency, allowing just 89.3 ppg per opponents 100 possessions. The next best team is Charlotte at 95.4. When you play that hard on defense, it's a lot easier to win on the road and the Clippers are 3-0 away from home, securing wins at Portland, Memphis and San Antonio, all difficult places to play.

The big key here for me is the lone loss for LA came at home against Oklahoma City, so there's some extra motivation for the Clippers in this one. The first meeting saw the Thunder win 85-83, so LA's defense was on point, but the offense just wasn't there. The Clippers shot just 39.1% from the field, well below their season average of 45%. I look for another strong effort here on the defensive side of the ball, with the offense doing a lot more to win here by 5+ points.

Clippers are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss to an oppponent and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings -

I like the value we are getting here with Sacramento as a small home favorite against the Lakers. I'll admit that LA has been better than expected in the early going, but this is still a young team that is learning how to win on the road. They are just 1-3 away from the Staples Center and the lone win came against the Hawks, where they shot lights out, hitting 53.9% from the field.

This will be just the 4th home game for the Kings on the season. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming in a hard fought game against the Spurs. Last time out they put away the Pelicans 102-94 as a 6.5-point favorite. I believe the key here is the Lakers won't have an answer for DeMarcus Cousins inside. He averaged 27 ppg and 11.3 rpg in the 4 games against LA last year. I also think it's worth pointing out the Kings just got back starting point guard Darren Collison last time out against New Orleans, so this team is even better than what they have shown so far.

Lakers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Suns +

Phoenix is showing some great value here as a big road dog against the Blazers. Phoenix is just 2-5, but are playing much better of late, taking 2 of their last 3 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Coming in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, I look for a big bounce back performance from the Suns here. It's a spot they have dominated in under head coach Earl Watson, as they are 13-3 ATS under Watson off a loss by 10 or more.

This is also a tough spot for the Blazers. Portland just finished up a 3-game road trip and will be home for just one game before heading to Los Angeles to face the Clippers tomorrow. A game they are going to have a tough time not looking ahead to, as they haven't forgot about a ugly 12-point home loss to the Clippers earlier this season.

Phoenix has had the Blazers number of late, as they are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Underdog in this series is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14. A big part of that is the Suns matchup well with Portland, as the Blazers are a very guard-oriented team. Phoenix has 3 really good guards of their own in Bledsoe, Knight and Boooker. Keep in mind Lillard is coming in a bit banged up, as he's dealing with nagging injuries to both his ankle and thumb. Take Phoenix!

5* NBA Situational No Limit Top Play on Lakers +

I really like the value here with the Lakers as a double-digit home dog. This is a massive letdown spot for the Warriors, who just played at home last night against the Thunder. A game they have had circled since the schedule was released, as it was Durant's first game against his old team after leaving OKC for Golden State in the offseason. You could see the emotion they invested in that game and it's going to be really hard for them to bring anywhere close to that intensity on the road against a Lakers team that isn't perceived to be any good.

The thing is, this Lakers team is better than they get credit for. They play really hard and have some nice young talent that can score the basketball. They also come in with some confidence, after closing out their 4-game road trip with a 123-116 win at Atlanta, who had previously been unbeaten.

We also find a great system in play going against the Warriors in this spot. Road favorites of 10 or more playing on back-to-back days are just 6-25 (19%) against the spread since 1996 in the 1st half the season. Keep in mind this is also Golden State's 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings +

I like the value here with Sacramento getting points against the Magic. The Kings come into this game at just 2-3, but I've been impressed with what I have seen out of this team. They were right there with the Spurs at home in a 94-102 loss, they fell apart late (outscored by 13 in 4th) in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta and last time out they lost in OT at Miami, where DeMarcus Cousins had fouled out in regulation. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated here and they are the more talented team in this one.

Orlando avoided an 0-4 start with a 103-101 win at Philadelphia, but they were very fortunate to get that win. The Magic trailed by 14 at the half and were down by as many as 18. Considering they were 0-3 going into that game and had no reason to overlook the 76ers, that's not a good sign, because Philadelphia is the worst team in the league right now.

Great system in play backing the Kings here. Teams off a road loss (Kings) with a line of +3 to -3 against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less (Magic) are 23-4 (85%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Sacramento!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value we are getting with Boston as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after their 3-0 start both SU and ATS, which includes a 105-99 win at home against the Celtics in their opener. The thing to keep in mind with that win over Boston, is the Celtics were playing on no rest. The Bulls blitzed them in the 1st quarter and they just were never able to recover, though they did come back and take the lead after falling behind by 15 points.

While I think Chicago is better than people thought coming in, I don't see them going on the road here and beating the Celtics, especially given they just played last week and beat them. Revenge isn't huge in the NBA, but it comes into play a lot more when teams play each other in a short period of time.

The Bulls are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing a game on the road, while the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Boston!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - 

I like the value here with Toronto in a big bounce back spot after losing last time out at home against the Cavaliers. Prior to that they beat up on the Pistons at home, winning by 18 as a 6-point home favorite. This will now be the Raptors 3rd straight at home to start the season, while Denver hits the road for the second time in their first three.

The Nuggets were able to win and cover on the road at New Orleans in their opener, but that's not a win to get excited about. The Pelicans are a one man show with Anthony Davis. Denver followed that up by losing at home to Blazers and now get their biggest test to date against a Raptors team that is one of the elite forces in the Eastern Conference. 

The big key here is that Toronto has a huge home court edge the Raptors went 32-9 at home last year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Denver hasn't been sharing the ball all that well. The Nuggets are 25th with 18.5 assists/game and are a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Suns + 

We are getting some exceptional value here with Phoenix catching almost double-digits against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is going to put up ridiculous numbers this season, but I'm not buying OKC being a real threat in the Western Conference. The Thunder were far from impressive in their opener against a bad 76ers team. They won the game 103-97, but just as easily could have lost. They had to outscore Philadelphia 34-22 in the 4th just to secure the win. 

One of things that made a number of these OKC role players so good last year is because opposing teams had to pay so much attention to Westbrook and Durant that they often got left wide open. That's not going to be the case this year and we saw the new addition of Oladipo struggle in his Thunder debut, going just 4 of 16 from the field. The Thunder also don't have a real 3-point threat on this team and that makes it that much easier to defend them. 

We are getting great value here on Phoenix because of their lackluster performance at home against the Kings in the opener. The Suns lost 94-113 as a 3-point home favorite. For whatever reason Phoenix's starters didn't bring a lot of energy to that game. I look for a big bounce back effort here, as this team is a lot more talented than people think. Also, Sacramento is better than people think. They just gave the Spurs all they could handle at home last night. Take Phoenix! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Wolves +

I'm big on Minnesota this season and while their young nucleus is a part of it, I think the biggest thing that makes them dangerous is the addition of head coach Tom Thibodeau. In his time with Chicago, the Bulls consistently overachieved during the regular season. A big part of that is he doesn't let teams take nights off defensively and that's clearly an area where the Timberwolves needed to improve. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd, giving up 106.0 ppg. 

It didn't take long for him to get them playing harder on that side of the ball. In the Timberwolves 7 preseason games, they only allowed more than 100 points once. If they are getting after it defensively when games don't matter, hard to think they aren't going to do the same once they start to count for real. 

That defense should be able to dominate the Grizzlies depleted lineup in the season opener. Memphis is without their prized free agent signing Chandler Parsons and backup center Brandon Wright. Tony Allen is also questionable with a knee injury. Keep in mind they also lost some key pieces from last year in Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Mario Chalmers. This is also a team that was horrible down the stretch, going 3-14 over their final 17 games. Take Minnesota! 

5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers - 

The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%. 

Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road. 

I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit. 

The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green. 

Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors + 

It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over. 

The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined. 

The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8. 

The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively.

Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State. 

As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points. 

Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs + 

I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game. 

Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3. 

Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points. 

Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games. 

As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1.

The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder. 

This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -

The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle. 

Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations. 

Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6. 

All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense. 

It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors!