|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-01-15||Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||111-87||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest.
I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-30-15||Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||120-66||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points.
Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-27-15||Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||115-120||Loss||-103||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks.
Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going.
The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season.
Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-26-15||Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||114-105||Win||100||26 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers +
This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4.
I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4.
Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-25-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3||Top||115-109||Loss||-102||13 h 51 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers -
After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line.
The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one.
Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!
|04-23-15||Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks +
This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate.
While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here.
Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot.
Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!
|04-22-15||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1||Top||111-107||Loss||-105||13 h 17 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers -
The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury.
Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002.
Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-18-15||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team.
Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover.
Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-15-15||San Antonio Spurs -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans||Top||103-108||Loss||-115||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs -
The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well.
With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans.
The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs.
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|04-14-15||Toronto Raptors -1.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||93-95||Loss||-105||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown.
Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|04-03-15||Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||93-123||Loss||-105||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* NBA Undervalued Underdog Game of the Month on Nuggets +
While the Spurs are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, not once during this stretch have they been laying this many points. In fact, the last time San Antonio was this big of a favorite, was at New York, where they lost outright 100-104 as a 14-point favorite. As good as the Spurs are playing right now, this line has been drastically inflated.
Denver might be out of the playoff picture, but this is a game I believe you can be confident they will show up to play. The Nuggets have lost all 3 meetings so far this season, but have been able to keep it respectable, as all 3 losses have come by 10-points or less, including a 9-point loss in the most recent meeting in San Antonio.
San Antonio is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when they come in having played 5 consecutive games as a favorite, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10+ points that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 87-50 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!
|04-01-15||New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||113-92||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Pelicans -
New Orleans currently sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, just 2.5-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Losing to a team like the Lakers, home or away, is simply not an option for the Pelicans at this point in the season.
Los Angeles is coming off a win at Philadelphia in their last game, but haven't won back-to-back games since February and this is not a great spot for the Lakers. Getting motivated this late in the season can be extremely hard for a bad team like LA and even more so when they are coming off a lengthy 5-game road trip with their last two coming completely on the other side of the country.
The other big key here is that New Orleans has had their way with the Lakers this season, winning all three matchups, including each of the last two by 16+ points. Their dominance over LA has a lot to do with the Lakers not having anyone who can matchup against Anthony Davis, who is averaging 25.7 points on 69% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 4 blocks in the 3 games during the season series.
Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after playing 2 straight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6. These trends combine to form a 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!
|03-31-15||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2||Top||110-106||Loss||-103||26 h 0 m||Show|
5* GS/LAC Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -
While Golden State has won 9 straight and 14 of 15 overall, this is a great spot to go against the Warriors, as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with their last win at Milwaukee. The focus now for Golden State will be getting ready for the playoffs, and that will like result in key players getting some time off.
The Clippers have won 7 straight, but they are still in a battle for playoff seeding, including home court in the first round. This game simply means a lot more to Los Angeles and I expect them to deliver at home.
Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams that allow 98-102 ppg after a combined score of 205+ in each of their last two games are 42-16 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|03-25-15||Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards -3.5||Top||103-101||Loss||-102||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Wizards -
Both of these teams come into this game in the midst of a minor slump. The Pacers have dropped 6 straight, while the Wizards come in having lost 3 in a row. The key thing to note hear is that Washington's poor play came on west coast trip which included two games against two of the elite teams in the Clippers and Warriors sandwiched around a game against the Kings. Indiana's poor play has come with them playing 4 of their last 5 at home and they are just 12-22 on the road.
Washington is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Wizards are 25-10 SU at home, where they have won 5 straight, including recent wins over both the the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Offensively the Wizards shoot the ball at a much better clip at home and also get after it more defensively. Indiana is getting to much respect from their recent run and I feel like this is a great spot to take advantage of a short line with a better team at home.
Indiana is a mere 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games played in March, 16-28 ATS in their last 44 when playing 6 or more in a span of 10 days and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Washington!
|03-18-15||Brooklyn Nets v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11||Top||92-117||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs -
This may seem like a big number to back the Cavs at home against the Nets off back-to-back wins, but Cleveland is on a mission to secure that No. 2 seed and will be extra motivated after getting embarrassed at Miami 92-106 in their last game. Brooklyn's two game winning streak is far from impressive, as they knocked off the 76ers and Timberwolves. Prior to that the Nets had dropped 5 straight and 10 of their last 14 overall.
Cleveland has won 13 straight at home and during this stretch are outscoring opponents by 15.7 ppg, which is why I'm not to concerned laying the big number here. It's also worth noting that the Cavaliers will be at full strength, as Kevin Love is expected to return after sitting out the last two.
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 10 or more points, while Cleveland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites of 10+ points who have went over the total by 30+ points in their last 5 games, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a strong 72% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|03-16-15||Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2||Top||97-105||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards -
After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers.
Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home.
Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|03-09-15||Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets||Top||95-69||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
5* Wizards/Hornets Southeast Game of the Month on Wizards +
This line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite. Charlotte is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, while the Wizards are a mere 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9. Not to mention the Hornets have won both of the previous two meetings this season.
Charlotte is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. I look for the Hornets to struggle to match the Wizards intensity after having to use a lot of energy to rally late to beat the Pistons yesterday in a high-scoring affair.
We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Washington. Favorites that are shooting 33% or worse from behind the 3-point line are 34-70 ATS in the month of March over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|03-06-15||Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||Top||97-106||Loss||-109||10 h 58 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Year on Cavs -
This game means a lot more to the Cavaliers than it does the Hawks. Atlanta has a comfortable 10-game lead in the east and are all but a shoe-in to take home the No. 1 seed. Cleveland on the other hand is fighting for position and will be out for double-revenge after losing each of the last two meetings.
The key here is that this is a different Cavaliers team than the one the Hawks beat up on earlier in the season. Cleveland has gone 20-4 over their last 24 games and three of those losses came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come in with a full day of rest and I look for them to come out an make a statement.
The Hawks won 104-96 as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Rockets on Wednesday, which sets them up in a good spot to fade. Atlanta is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 2 days of rest and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off a win where they failed to cover the spread. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their 12 games in the 2nd half against opponents who are scoring 99+ points/game and winning these contests by an average of 11.4 ppg. These trends add up to form a strong 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|02-27-15||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6||Top||89-96||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls -
With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game.
It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back.
The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|02-26-15||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5||Top||99-110||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -
The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg.
The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland.
That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|02-23-15||Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||102-113||Loss||-113||10 h 18 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +
The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games.
The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11.
The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!
|02-20-15||Cleveland Cavaliers -3 v. Washington Wizards||Top||127-89||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -
The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN.
Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|02-08-15||Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -4.5||Top||109-98||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets -
Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes.
Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home.
Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|02-05-15||Washington Wizards +1 v. Charlotte Hornets||Top||87-94||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one.
While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers.
Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|01-30-15||Dallas Mavericks -8.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||93-72||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks -
This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9.
In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense.
Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road.
The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas!
|01-28-15||Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -3.5||Top||94-99||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets -
The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent.
It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|01-27-15||Toronto Raptors -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||104-91||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors -
The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers.
Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight.
Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|01-23-15||Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -9||Top||100-99||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -
This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot.
The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest.
History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98).
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!
|01-20-15||San Antonio Spurs -8 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||109-99||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -
This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday.
San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State.
While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall.
Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|01-09-15||Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5||Top||94-99||Loss||-110||12 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder -
I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday.
It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance.
I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|01-05-15||Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans||Top||92-85||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight.
The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip.
As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet.
Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game.
It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|01-02-15||Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||109-106||Loss||-110||12 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies -
Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break.
While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better.
Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games. The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|12-30-14||Detroit Pistons -1.5 v. Orlando Magic||Top||109-86||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons -
The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic.
While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17.
Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!
|12-26-14||Charlotte Hornets +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||75-98||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets +
This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant.
The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!
|12-15-14||Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||82-95||Loss||-108||7 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic +
The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan.
With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8.
The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest.
There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!
|12-14-14||San Antonio Spurs -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||99-91||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -
The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set.
San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver.
The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|12-12-14||Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||107-113||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets +
Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread.
Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy.
The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away.
Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!
|12-08-14||Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -1||Top||108-92||Loss||-105||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Pacers -
While Indiana has lost 4 straight and the Hawks have won 6 in a row, I think the value is clearly with the Pacers at basically a pick'em at home. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge after a 10-point loss in Atlanta earlier this season, they are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after getting swept on their 4-game road trip.
A couple keys here that favors the Pacers is they are a lot healthier this time around than they were in that first meeting against the Hawks. David West and C.J. Watson are both back from injuries, plus Rodney Stuckey is playing a much bigger role than he was early in the season. The other factor is that Atlanta is in a tough spot after playing Denver yesterday. Not only will the Hawks be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be there 5th game in the last 7 days. Indiana on the other hand comes in off 2 full days of rest.
There's also a strong system telling us to fade Atlanta. Road underdogs who are a poor defensive team that is allowing 99+ points/game on the season after allowing 85 points or less in each of their last two are just 5-23 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 82% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!
|12-05-14||Houston Rockets v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7||Top||114-112||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Pre-New Years Western Conf Game of the Year on Timberwolves +
This is a perfect spot for the Timberwolves to bounce back from that ugly home loss to the 76ers and get a cover against the Rockets. It doesn't get much worse in the NBA right now than losing to Philadelphia, who had started the season 0-17. There's no question oddsmakers have inflated this line, especially with Houston beating the Grizzlies 105-96 in their last game. Not only do I think Minnesota will hang tough with the Rockets, I think they have a great shot at winning this game.
The Timberwolves are going to come out highly motivated after that poor showing against a quality team like the Rockets. Houston on the other hand figures to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Rockets are not only coming off that big game against Memphis, but they have a big home game against the Suns on deck tomorrow. Adding to this is the fact that Houston is still playing short-handed, as Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are all sidelined with injuries.
The Timberwolves will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost to Houston 101-113 back on Nov. 12. Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 revenging a home loss to an opponent. Houston on the other hand is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games after having won at least 4 of their last 6 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Rockets. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 20-50 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!
|12-03-14||Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5||Top||102-95||Loss||-105||8 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets +
This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls.
Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night.
The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago!
|12-02-14||Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||105-103||Loss||-110||11 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -
The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series.
Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season.
Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!
|11-21-14||Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||83-124||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks +
Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points.
Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter.
The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!
|11-10-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5||Top||89-85||Loss||-106||12 h 53 m||Show|
5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers -
The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98.
Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2).
While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points.
There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|11-07-14||Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||110-101||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers -
I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets.
Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down.
Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers!
|06-08-14||Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||98-96||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat +
The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1.
Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!
|05-30-14||Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5||Top||92-117||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points.
Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76.
Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!
|05-25-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2||Top||97-106||Win||100||31 h 19 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder -
It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder.
The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most.
Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs.
The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|05-14-14||PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5||Top||82-104||Win||100||34 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs -
The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest.
San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3.
The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs!
|05-11-14||OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5||Top||99-101||Loss||-105||6 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -
|05-08-14||Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||82-94||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets +
I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright.
One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight.
Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets!
|05-07-14||LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5||Top||101-112||Win||100||12 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -
Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field.
The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits.
The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite.
Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder!
|05-02-14||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5||Top||98-99||Loss||-110||31 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -
I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland.
The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games!
|04-22-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5||Top||101-99||Loss||-115||10 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one.
I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting.
Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest!
|04-21-14||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5||Top||98-138||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2.
Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
|04-19-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3||Top||94-87||Loss||-109||2 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road.
Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss.
The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0).
One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.
|04-09-14||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||102-87||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -
|03-24-14||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -8||Top||92-109||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -
Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games.
The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight.
This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|03-16-14||Charlotte Bobcats -6 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||101-92||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -
The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds.
Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season.
You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-12-14||New York Knicks -4.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||116-92||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings.
Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-10-14||Washington Wizards +7 v. Miami Heat||Top||90-99||Loss||-110||8 h 48 m||Show|
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest.
Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game.
You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-08-14||Washington Wizards -8.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||114-107||Loss||-106||14 h 15 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -
Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today.
The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|02-28-14||Golden State Warriors -5.5 v. New York Knicks||Top||126-103||Win||100||20 h 51 m||Show|
5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -
The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup.
The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|02-26-14||Golden State Warriors -3 v. Chicago Bulls||Top||83-103||Loss||-103||11 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -
The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season.
Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game.
This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|02-24-14||Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. New York Knicks||Top||110-108||Loss||-109||15 h 28 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -
The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently.
The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|02-12-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -8||Top||117-122||Loss||-105||13 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games.
The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league.
This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|02-05-14||Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -7.5||Top||108-122||Win||100||19 h 22 m||Show|
5* Western Conference Blowout of the Month on Rockets -
The Phoenix Suns are playing in a tough back-to-back situation after losing at home last night to the Chicago Bulls. Now they are traveling to Houston where they will face a Rockets team that is looking for its fourth consecutive win. Houston is playing on three days of rest, so they should be well prepared to face the Suns.
The Rockets have been a very dangerous team on their home court. They have a 20-7 record, and are averaging 105.7 points per game for their fans. They have the luxury of facing a very soft defense in this matchup. The Suns are allowing 101.3 points per game this season, and playing in a back-to-back situation against an outstanding offensive team like Houston makes this matchup scream blowout.
This game fits into a very profitable system backing the Rockets. You should play on home teams like Houston when they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game, and they are facing an average pressure defense that has forced 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has a 97-60 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|01-30-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5||Top||92-111||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on Warriors -
This game has blowout written all over it. Golden State has played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 6-3 record, and the Warriors have the luxury of playing host in this matchup with the Clippers. Golden State is averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season, and they should score at will against a Clippers defense that has surrendered 103.9 points per game against division opponents.
The rest profile also favors Golden State in this matchup. They are coming off a day of rest as they prepare for their fifth consecutive home game. The Clippers have had a crazy schedule playing seven straight on the road before returning home last night to face Washington. Now they are playing in a back-to-back situation as they head north to face the Warriors tonight. This will be the Clippers fifth game in the past seven days.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Golden State after 42 or more games in the season when they are an average ball handling team committing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers versus an average pressure defense that is forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game. This matchup identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 94-59 (61%) record against the spread.
|01-29-14||Philadelphia 76ers +4 v. Boston Celtics||Top||95-94||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers +
The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. Boston is playing in a tough back-to-back situation after getting blown out last night on the road against New York. Philadelphia on the other hand is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The 76ers offense gives them a big advantage in this game. They are averaging 101.4 points per game against division opponents, while Boston comes into this matchup averaging a mere 91.7 points in division games.
The Celtics are struggling just like the 76ers right now, and with the rest profiles favoring Philadelphia it looks like they catch the first break. Boston has lost four of its last five games, scoring a mere 89.8 points per game while allowing over 100 points per game during that stretch. The 76ers might also be 1-4 in their last five, but it has not been from a lack of offense. They are scoring 101.6 points per game during their last five games.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 76ers. You should play on road teams like Philadelphia after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 80-26 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Boston has not done a good job of protecting their home court, and playing without rest makes Philadelphia an easy call in this game.
|01-27-14||Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz -6||Top||99-106||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider of the Month on Utah Jazz -
The Sacramento Kings have not played well when they are completely healthy, so I do not like their chances tonight when they will try to avoid a fourth straight loss. The Kings will be visiting the Utah Jazz, and things don't look good since both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are listed as doubtful for this matchup. Sacramento already struggles in road games with a 6-13 record and without Cousins and Gay the Utah Jazz should win this game in a blowout.
Utah will have no problem scoring points as they face one of the league's worst defenses. The Kings have surrendered 106.7 points per game on the road this season. Over its last five games Sacramento has allowed 113 points per game. That puts them in a tough spot tonight against a Jazz team that has a 6-2 record at home in their last eight games.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Jazz. You should play against road teams like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the season playing another team with a losing record. This system is 48-18 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|01-25-14||Indiana Pacers v. Denver Nuggets +2.5||Top||96-109||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
5* Bailout Game of the Month on Nuggets +
Denver is playing in the perfect spot to pull off an upset over Indiana. The Pacers are playing their fourth consecutive road game, and their fourth game in the last seven days. That is a lot of travel, and the fact that Indiana is also playing in a back-to-back situation adds even more value to the Nuggets. With the Nuggets playing the host role in this matchup they are an easy call tonight.
I expect the wear and tear of Indiana's road trip to catch up with them tonight. The Nuggets are a very high scoring and uptempo team, and combined with the altitude and facing a tired team like the Pacers that gives them a big advantage in this matchup. Denver averages 103.4 points per game and they are poised to put up another big number today. Over their last five games the Pacers have surrendered an average of 102 points per game.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pacers. You should play against a team like Indiana when they average 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 102 points per game or more when they are coming off a matchup with a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies potentially tired defenses and has resulted in a 72-35 (67%) record against the spread.
|01-22-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -6||Top||111-105||Loss||-105||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -
The Thunder have played a brutal schedule recently, and it will catch up with them today against the Spurs. Oklahoma City is playing in a back-to-back situation after making a late comeback last night against Portland. It was very obvious that the wear and tear of their recent schedule is catching up with them. The Thunder are now playing their fifth game in the past seven days. The Spurs on the other hand are coming into this matchup playing on two days of rest, and have the benefit of home court advantage.
San Antonio has won seven of their last eight games. They are one of the toughest home teams in the league, and I don't see the Thunder keeping pace with their high scoring offense in this game. The Spurs are averaging 105.3 points per game at home. They also have a very underrated defense that is surrendering 96.6 points per game this season. The Thunder take a hit in production when playing on the road. They average 2.2 points per game less, while the defense is surrendering 1.2 points per game more.
The Spurs have a 38-20 ATS record when playing only their second game in the last five days. They are also 17-6 ATS when coming off a game making 55 percent or more of their shot attempts. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team has also been the favorite, and they have posted a 6-1 ATS record. With the Spurs playing at home with two days of rest, and the Thunder playing in a back-to-back situation this game has blowout written all over it.
|01-21-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5||Top||97-105||Win||100||18 h 16 m||Show|
5* Western Conf. Game of the Month on OKC Thunder -
The Thunder have a lot to play for in this game, and I like their chances to pick up a big win on their home court. First place in the Northwest Division is on the line, and tonight Portland will run into a red hot Thunder team and the league's leading scorer. Kevin Durant is riding seven consecutive 30-point performances as Oklahoma City tries for their fourth consecutive win.
The Trail Blazers are playing in a back-to-back situation after getting crushed by Houston last night. It was a 13-point loss for Portland, and I expect them to struggle again against this Thunder team that is 18-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City will also have the revenge factor on their side. Portland squeaked off a four point win the last time these teams met, and with a day of rest coming into this game I expect the Thunder to easily get that revenge.
The Trail Blazers are a very soft team defensively. They surrender an average of 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Oklahoma city is 53-32 against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 40-25 ATS when coming off a performance scoring 105 or more points in their last outing. The Thunder have dominated the head-to-head series between these teams posting a 6-3 ATS record over the last three seasons.
|01-13-14||Houston Rockets -5.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||104-92||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -
The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston
|01-11-14||New York Knicks -4.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||102-92||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
5* Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Knicks -
The Knicks have been on fire in the New Year, and this line is giving far too much credit to Philadelphia. New York has won four of their last five games straight up, and covered the spread in all five of those games. Philadelphia on the other hand has lost three in a row both straight up and against the spread. The 76ers are showing no signs of life, while New York does not even begin to resemble the team that lost 13 of their first 16 games this season.
The Knicks should be able to score at-will against this soft 76ers defense. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 111.2 points per game this season, and they get no benefit from home court advantage where they have surrendered 111.9 points per game. The Knicks defense on the other hand has been solid, especially recently. Over their last five games New York has held its opponents to a mere 92 points per game.
The Knicks have been a good team to back on the road recently. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games when their opponent has a losing record at home. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing with a day of rest. Philadelphia is playing in a back-to-back situation after getting blown out by a double-digit margin at home last night against Detroit.
|01-08-14||Detroit Pistons +5 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||91-112||Loss||-102||9 h 34 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +
Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses against two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Those games put an end to their win streak, and I think it will be hard for the Raptors to recover since they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Now Toronto has to face a Pistons team that is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlantic division opponents.
Detroit is coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding New York to just 89 points. If not for a rare poor shooting performance it is a game the Pistons would have won. They should have no problem bouncing back against this Toronto team that is surrendering 99.3 points per game at home this season. The Raptors are scoring a mere 91.4 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them tonight. The Pistons come into this matchup scoring 99.3 points per game on the road.
This game fits into a very profitable system for a play on Detroit. You should take road underdogs like the Pistons after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games in the season. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing, and it has led to a 162-102 (61%) record against the spread.
|01-03-14||New Orleans Pelicans -3 v. Boston Celtics||Top||95-92||Push||0||11 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans are an easy call in this game. The Celtics lack the offensive firepower it will take to keep pace with this New Orleans team, and Boston has struggled to keep up with oddsmaker
|12-13-13||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -3.5||Top||116-112||Loss||-100||13 h 34 m||Show|
5* Heavy Hitter on Golden State Warriors -
The Golden State Warriors have an explosive offense, and against a horrible defensive team like the Rockets I think they are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. Combine that with a defense that plays exceptionally well at home and the Warriors become a strong value play. Golden State is 7-2 straight up on home games, while the Rockets are just 5-5 on the road.
The Warriors are averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season. They should score at-will on a Houston defense that has allowed 109.5 points per game on the road. This is also a revenge game for the Warriors. They were crushed when playing at Houston last week, and this time they have the benefit of playing host. I think they get their revenge with a strong first half, which is something that was missing the last time these teams met.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite has a 9-4 ATS record. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific division teams, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Golden State had yesterday off, so they should be well prepared for Houston. The Rockets on the other hand played last night in a losing effort against Portland. With the rest profiles favoring Golden State I think they get a big win in this game.
|12-06-13||Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||Top||98-130||Loss||-104||12 h 35 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Utah Jazz +
The Portland Trailblazers have been playing at an unsustainable level. They are a team that is nowhere near as good as their 16-3 record. There is a lot of value on Utah as a double-digit underdog in this game. The Trailblazers have not been a strong defensive team, allowing an average of 99.9 points per game. They have posted a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record.
The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games. They are playing a lot better recently, winning three of their last five games straight up. Utah has shot over 50 percent from the field in two of their last three games, and I like their chances to keep this game close considering how well the team is playing right now.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when they have three consecutive wins, and a winning overall record on the season. This system identifies teams that oddsmakers overvalue, and it has resulted in a 125-84 (62%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|11-25-13||Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies +2||Top||93-86||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies +
After a slow start this season the Grizzlies have really turned things on recently. They have won three of their last four games coming into today's matchup with Houston. They have an extra day of rest over the Rockets, and that gives them a big advantage in this game. Defensively, Houston has struggled on the road this year, allowing 113.8 points per game.
The Memphis defense has been tough, allowing just 96.3 points per game against opponents whose offensive average is over 100 points per game. The Grizzlies should also dominate the turnover margin in this game. They have just 14 turnovers per game compared to 18 from the Rockets. With the better defense, and more efficient offense I think the Grizzlies take this game at home.
The Houston Rockets are 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game against a division opponents. They face a Memphis team that is 27-13 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Rockets are 0-5 the last five games played in Memphis and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall.
|10-30-13||Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Pelicans +2||Top||95-90||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +
It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers.
The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons.
The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games.
|06-13-13||Miami Heat +1 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||109-93||Win||100||12 h 24 m||Show|
5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury.
The Heat have now seen San Antonio
|05-22-13||Indiana Pacers +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||102-103||Win||100||36 h 54 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +
The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too.
The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home.
Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end.
|05-10-13||San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||102-92||Win||100||12 h 12 m||Show|
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5
There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS.
The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today
|05-06-13||Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5||Top||127-129||Loss||-110||12 h 15 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout.
Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points.
San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS.
|04-23-13||Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8||Top||131-117||Loss||-103||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.
This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg).
When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year.
I'll take Denver.
|04-21-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs -8||Top||79-91||Win||100||6 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg.
San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996.
The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight.
|04-12-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers -5.5||Top||117-109||Loss||-103||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Pacers -
The Nets have picked up two wins over the Pacers this season but we should see a completely different result tonight. In the last game between these teams the Pacers shot 34.4% from the field and 22.7% on three point attempts. That anomaly is very unlikely to take place again since the Pacers have averaged 43.6% shooting at home and the Brooklyn defense is not overly talented. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Pacers when they are playing in a double revenge situation following two straight losses to their opponent when that same opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival. This system is 44-17 (72%) ATS.
The Pacers have are solid from their home court sitting on a 30-9 straight up record. They are playing with an extra day of rest over the Nets in today
|04-09-13||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors -6.5||Top||89-105||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their home games this season. Golden State is an impressive 26-12 at home this year. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Minnesota is 29-47 this season and they are an embarrassingly bad 10-27 when playing on the road.
When playing at home the Warriors are scoring 101.4 points per game and holding opponents to 97.2 points per game. They should be able to beat their averages with ease against a Timberwolves team that allows 100.6 on the road while scoring only 95.2 points per game. The Warriors are hot coming into this game averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games. They have shot just under 50% from the field while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting.
In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors picked up a one point win on the road at Minnesota. A change in venue should be more than enough to cover the -6.5 point line set for today
|04-05-13||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8||Top||111-107||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on Phoenix Suns +
Golden State is coming into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games and a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Golden State is also 0-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Golden State defense has been the biggest problem when playing on the road. The Warriors are allowing 102.8 points per game while averaging 99.9 in scoring.
In head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 6-2 over the last 8 games. The Warriors have not won more than two consecutive games since February and their poor play on the road may prevent them from picking up that third win today. Phoenix has held opponents to 97.1 points per game and they have covered two of their last three games when playing at home.
In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors pulled off a 10 point victory on their home court. Considering we have a change in venue and the oddsmakers have left the line the same the Suns have become the value play in this rematch. Phoenix shot 53% from the three point line in the last game and the soft Golden State defense playing on the road should make for an easy cover for the Suns.
|02-02-13||Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5||Top||93-76||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -
The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster.
You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks.
I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it.
|02-01-13||Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||76-85||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5
I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington.
The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg.
You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way.
|01-30-13||Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||104-88||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight.
Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division.
A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee.
|01-16-13||Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers||Top||93-88||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st.
The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night.
So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that.
Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record.
|01-16-13||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||107-105||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets.
The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday.
Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points.
Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north.
|01-15-13||Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||103-76||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out.
The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg.
Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight.
The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog.
|01-05-13||Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||89-115||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons.
There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers.
LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago.
This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight.
|01-01-13||Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5||Top||95-86||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team.
Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day.
The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night.
|12-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets||Top||124-94||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with.
The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday.
|12-28-12||Denver Nuggets -2 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||106-85||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing.
The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games.
This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver.
The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game.
In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver.
|12-26-12||Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-107||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Off yesterday's big statement win over the Thunder, expect the Heat to suffer a letdown.
Miami has been far from invincible on the road where it is just 5-4 and has only one win of more than 10 points. One of its road defeats came to the lowly Washington Wizards so Miami can certainly be had here.
The Bobcats have lost 15 in a row, but they have been competitive at home during this stretch. Each of their last three and six of seven home losses during this span have come by less than 10 points. Two of these were against the Clippers and Knicks so they have shown they can take good teams right down to the wire.
The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Bobcats.