Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109 I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110 Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 25 m | Show |
5* NFL - Seahawks/49ers NFC West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/49ers over 47 -109 I look for these two teams to easily combine for at least 50 points an cover the total set by the books. Everyone likes to talk about the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but SF is averaging an impressive 35.3 ppg. That offense will be without George Kittle tonight, but they are getting back left tackle Joe Staley and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. I look for San Francisco to run the ball at will here and that's going to open up the opportunities for some big passing plays. I think the 49ers will easily score 30+ points here against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5. That means all we need is for the Seahawks to score around 18-20 to have us safely over the mark. I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson and that group can give us that. OVER is 41-18 in the Seahawks last 59 vs strong defensive teams that are giving up 17 or less points/game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs strong rushing teams that average 4.5+ yards/carry. OVER has also cashed in 4 of San Fran's last 5 division games and 8 out of their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins UNDER 42 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 0 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Redskins/Dolphins under 42 -104 I love the UNDER in Week 6's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. You got the 0-5 Redskins facing off against the 0-4 Dolphins. While both of these defenses have given up a lot of points, these are two horrible offensive teams. Miami comes in averaging 6.5 ppg and 225 ypg. The Redskins aren't that much better at 14.6 ppg and 281 ypg. Key here is I think we get a big effort here defensively from both teams as both know this is going to be one of their rare opportunities for a win in 2019. I also think we get a big effort from the Dolphins coming off a bye and Washington should play harder than normal after watching their head coach get fired. UNDER is 31-16 in the Redskins last 47 games off a road loss by 10 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 when off a loss of 14 or more. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Dolphins last 7 off a loss by 14 or more. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 50 m | Show |
5* NFL - Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bengals/Steelers over 43½ -110 Big time value here with the OVER at this price. While there's some big names missing on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, there's more than enough talent to score on the two defenses that will be playing. Steelers are giving up 28.3 ppg and have struggled against both the run and the pass. Teams are averaging 139 ypg on the ground and 303 through the air with 8.7 yards/completion. Bengals are allowing 27.7 ppg. They are giving up 169 rushing yards/game and while they are only giving up 238 ypg thru the air, they too are allowing 8.7 yards/completion. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards/play against the Steelers and 6.6 yards/play against the Bengals. OVER is 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 home games and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 140 h 13 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings OVER I love the value here with the total in Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Eagles. I know these are two teams are built around their defenses, but it's not asking a lot to hit 40 points with the talent these two have on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota's offense is better than it gets credit for. The Vikings have score 23 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. They put up 29 last week against a solid Saints defense and I expect them to be around that 23-27 mark in this one. The Eagles come in averaging 27.8 ppg, but haven't been quite as potent with Nick Foles under center. They put up just 15 on the Falcons last week, but did have some success moving the ball. They just had to settle for a couple field goals and had two costly turnovers. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it's not as dominant on the road. All we need is to average 10-points a quarter to clear this mark and I think we get that and some more. OVER is 15-4 in the Vikings last 19 road games off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 games after posting a turnover margin of -1 or worse in two straight games. Take the OVER! |