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Jimmy Boyd NFL Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
01-17-21 Browns +10 v. Chiefs Top 17-22 Win 100 54 h 42 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Browns +10 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

01-16-21 Ravens v. Bills UNDER 50 Top 3-17 Win 100 53 h 30 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens/Bills under 50 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

01-10-21 Bears v. Saints -10 Top 9-21 Win 100 7 h 7 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Saints -10 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

01-09-21 Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9.5 Top 31-23 Win 100 53 h 38 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Washington Football Team +9½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

01-03-21 Saints v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 Top 33-7 Win 100 30 h 2 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Saints/Panthers under 47½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

01-03-21 Saints v. Panthers +6 33-7 Loss -109 28 h 30 m Show

4* MAJOR on Panthers +6 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-28-20 Bills v. Patriots UNDER 47.5 Top 38-9 Win 100 7 h 41 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Bills/Patriots under 47½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-27-20 Titans +3.5 v. Packers 14-40 Loss -113 135 h 40 m Show

3* BEST BET on Titans +3½ -113

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-27-20 Eagles -119 v. Cowboys Top 17-37 Loss -119 131 h 46 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-27-20 Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 17-37 Win 100 131 h 45 m Show

4* MAJOR on Eagles/Cowboys over 48½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-26-20 Bucs v. Lions +9.5 Top 47-7 Loss -108 26 h 8 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Lions +9½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-25-20 Vikings +7 v. Saints Top 33-52 Loss -105 55 h 29 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Vikings +7 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-21-20 Steelers -13 v. Bengals Top 17-27 Loss -110 56 h 16 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -13 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-20-20 Chiefs v. Saints OVER 52 Top 32-29 Win 100 45 h 31 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Chiefs/Saints over 52 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-20-20 Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team Top 20-15 Win 100 49 h 51 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-17-20 Chargers v. Raiders -3 Top 30-27 Loss -114 8 h 20 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Raiders -3 -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-14-20 Ravens -2.5 v. Browns Top 47-42 Win 100 53 h 5 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -2½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-13-20 Falcons v. Chargers OVER 49.5 Top 17-20 Loss -107 128 h 41 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons/Chargers over 49½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-13-20 Packers v. Lions OVER 55 31-24 Push 0 128 h 40 m Show

4* MAJOR on Packers/Lions over 55 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-13-20 Chiefs v. Dolphins OVER 48.5 33-27 Win 100 124 h 15 m Show

3* BEST BET on Chiefs/Dolphins over 48½ -112

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-10-20 Patriots +6.5 v. Rams Top 3-24 Loss -115 56 h 53 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +6½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-08-20 Cowboys v. Ravens -7 Top 17-34 Win 100 57 h 54 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -7 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-08-20 Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 Top 17-34 Win 100 23 h 56 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Cowboys/Ravens over 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-06-20 Eagles +9 v. Packers Top 16-30 Loss -110 7 h 9 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles +9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

12-06-20 Jaguars v. Vikings OVER 51.5 24-27 Loss -110 145 h 29 m Show

4* MAJOR on Jaguars/Vikings over 51½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-30-20 Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 51 Top 23-17 Win 100 177 h 20 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks/Eagles under 51 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-29-20 Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 45.5 Top 20-3 Win 100 146 h 8 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins/Jets under 45½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-29-20 Chargers +5.5 v. Bills 17-27 Loss -110 47 h 55 m Show

4* MAJOR on Chargers +5½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-22-20 Chiefs -6 v. Raiders 35-31 Loss -110 142 h 24 m Show

3* BEST BET on Chiefs -6 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-22-20 Eagles v. Browns OVER 45 Top 17-22 Loss -110 147 h 1 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Browns over 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-22-20 Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 9-20 Loss -109 147 h 51 m Show

4* MAJOR on Bengals/Washington Football Team over 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-19-20 Cardinals +3 v. Seahawks Top 21-28 Loss -100 33 h 14 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +3 +101

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-19-20 Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 Top 21-28 Win 100 13 h 47 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Seahawks under 57½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-16-20 Vikings -2.5 v. Bears Top 19-13 Win 100 52 h 23 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Vikings -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-15-20 Texans v. Browns -3 Top 7-10 Push 0 147 h 49 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Browns -3 -104

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-15-20 Jaguars +14 v. Packers 20-24 Win 100 147 h 49 m Show

3* BEST BET on Jaguars +14 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-15-20 Bucs -4.5 v. Panthers 46-23 Win 100 108 h 11 m Show

4* MAJOR on Bucs -4½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-09-20 Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5 30-27 Loss -109 12 h 9 m Show

3* BEST BET on Patriots/Jets under 41½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-08-20 Saints v. Bucs OVER 50 38-3 Loss -110 37 h 24 m Show

4* MAJOR on Saints/Bucs over 50 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-08-20 Raiders v. Chargers OVER 54 31-26 Win 100 141 h 10 m Show

4* MAJOR on Raiders/Chargers over 54 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-08-20 Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars Top 27-25 Loss -114 52 h 39 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Texans -6½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-05-20 Packers -4 v. 49ers Top 34-17 Win 100 57 h 26 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-02-20 Bucs v. Giants +12.5 Top 25-23 Win 100 32 h 33 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Giants +12½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-01-20 Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 45.5 30-31 Loss -102 150 h 28 m Show

3* BEST BET on Chargers/Broncos under 45½ -102

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-01-20 Colts -2.5 v. Lions Top 41-21 Win 100 147 h 23 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Colts -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

11-01-20 Titans v. Bengals OVER 54.5 20-31 Loss -103 147 h 23 m Show

3* BEST BET on Titans/Bengals over 54½ -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-29-20 Falcons +2.5 v. Panthers Top 25-17 Win 100 52 h 28 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +2½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-26-20 Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 Top 10-24 Win 100 175 h 16 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Bears/Rams under 46½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-25-20 Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 49 29-39 Win 100 150 h 58 m Show

4* MAJOR on Jaguars/Chargers over 49 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-25-20 Steelers -1.5 v. Titans Top 27-24 Win 100 147 h 34 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-25-20 Browns v. Bengals UNDER 52 37-34 Loss -110 147 h 34 m Show

3* BEST BET on Browns/Bengals under 52 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-25-20 Panthers v. Saints OVER 51 24-27 Push 0 147 h 33 m Show

3* BEST BET on Panthers/Saints over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-22-20 Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 Top 21-22 Win 100 82 h 54 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-19-20 Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 54 Top 38-10 Loss -105 178 h 56 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys over 54 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-18-20 Browns v. Steelers UNDER 51.5 7-38 Win 100 126 h 6 m Show

4* MAJOR on Browns/Steelers under 51½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-18-20 Ravens v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 Top 30-28 Loss -109 126 h 6 m Show

5* BEST BET on Ravens/Eagles under 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-12-20 Chargers v. Saints -7.5 Top 27-30 Loss -115 59 h 14 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-11-20 Jaguars v. Texans OVER 54 14-30 Loss -108 157 h 58 m Show

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Texans over 54 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-11-20 Cardinals v. Jets OVER 46.5 30-10 Loss -115 147 h 27 m Show

4* MAJOR on Cardinals/Jets over 46½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-11-20 Eagles v. Steelers -7 Top 29-38 Win 100 147 h 2 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-11-20 Eagles v. Steelers UNDER 46.5 29-38 Loss -107 147 h 38 m Show

3* BEST BET on Eagles/Steelers under 46½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-08-20 Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45.5 Top 19-20 Win 100 93 h 53 m Show

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Bucs/Bears under 45½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-05-20 Falcons v. Packers -6.5 Top 16-30 Win 100 180 h 35 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-04-20 Eagles v. 49ers -7 25-20 Loss -115 27 h 40 m Show

3* BEST BET on 49ers -7 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-04-20 Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 47.5 25-33 Win 100 145 h 16 m Show

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Bengals over 47½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-04-20 Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 51 Top 21-31 Win 100 43 h 40 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Panthers over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

10-01-20 Broncos -2 v. Jets 37-28 Win 100 95 h 32 m Show

4* BEST BET on Broncos -2 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-28-20 Chiefs v. Ravens -3 Top 34-20 Loss -120 177 h 53 m Show

5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-27-20 Panthers v. Chargers -6 21-16 Loss -110 54 h 23 m Show

4* MAJOR on Chargers -6 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-27-20 Rams +2.5 v. Bills Top 32-35 Loss -115 51 h 24 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-24-20 Dolphins v. Jaguars -3 Top 31-13 Loss -100 35 h 17 m Show

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-20-20 Patriots +4.5 v. Seahawks Top 30-35 Loss -110 167 h 13 m Show

5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-20-20 Lions v. Packers OVER 46 21-42 Win 100 160 h 52 m Show

3* BEST BET on Lions/Packers over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-20-20 Vikings v. Colts OVER 46 11-28 Loss -110 160 h 52 m Show

3* BEST BET on Vikings/Colts over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-20-20 Vikings v. Colts -2.5 11-28 Win 100 160 h 32 m Show

3* BEST BET on Colts -2½ -120

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-20-20 Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 42 31-28 Loss -110 145 h 42 m Show

4* BEST BET on Bills/Dolphins under 42 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-13-20 Browns v. Ravens -7 Top 6-38 Win 100 51 h 41 m Show

5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-13-20 Bears +2.5 v. Lions 27-23 Win 100 50 h 42 m Show

3* BEST BET on Bears +2½ +100

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

09-10-20 Texans v. Chiefs -9 Top 20-34 Win 100 58 h 48 m Show

5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

02-02-20 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 Top 20-31 Win 100 58 h 6 m Show

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105

I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. 

Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. 

Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. 

Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! 

02-02-20 49ers v. Chiefs -120 Top 20-31 Win 100 58 h 5 m Show

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -120

I really like the Chiefs to come out on top in Super Bowl 54. I've been saying Kansas City was the team to beat for a while now and I actually think the number here should be closer to the Chiefs -3 than a pick'em. 

No disrespect to the 49ers, but I just think they are up against it here. No question who has the better quarterback in this game. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he's arguably got the most talent around him. I get the 49ers defense is good, but beating the Vikings and Packers is not exactly saying much. Sure Green Bay has Rodgers, but just look at what Rodgers has to work with compared to Mahomes. 

I also don't know that the Chiefs defense is all that far off from San Francisco. They don't have the talent up front like the 49ers, but as a whole these two were actually more similar than you might think. In fact, the Chiefs gave up fewer points/game and played a tougher schedule in terms of offenses faced. 

Say what you want about Andy Reid and him not winning the big game, the guy is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting his team ready with an extra week to prepare. As a head coach his teams are 18-3 ATS in the regular-season and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. I just think Mahomes and that offense will be too much for SF to overcome. Take Kansas City! 

01-26-20 NFC v. AFC OVER 49.5 33-38 Win 100 87 h 46 m Show

4* NFL - Pro Bowl (AFC vs NFC) Total NO-BRAINER on NFC/AFC over 49½ -110

It's crazy to think the total for the Pro Bowl is less than that of the Super Bowl. I get the UNDER has cashed in each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 Pro Bowls, but the average score since 2014 is still at 49 points. I just think there's too much value here in an exhibition game to take a shot at this price. Take the OVER! 

01-19-20 Packers v. 49ers -7 Top 20-37 Win 100 149 h 10 m Show

5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109

I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. 

These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. 

When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! 

01-12-20 Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers 23-28 Loss -110 28 h 51 m Show

3* NFL - Seahawks/Packers ATS DESTROYER on Seahawks +4½ -110

The Seahawks are definitely worth a look here as a 4.5-point dog against the Packers. Green Bay may have ended up with the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but I'm not buying for a second that this is the second best team in the NFC.

Packer went 13-3 because of a really soft schedule and that's evident by the fact that they had a mere +63 point differential for the season. Green Bay only played 5 games all season against a team that made the playoffs. They went 3-2 in those games, but two of those wins were against a similarly fraudulent Vikings team and the other was against the Chiefs when they were without Mahomes. Their two losses were by 7 at home to the Eagles and by 31 at San Francisco. 

Seattle has a great home field edge, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good road team. Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 road games and 22-8-2 ATS last 32 road games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 34-16-3 ATS last 53 as a dog. Take Seattle! 

01-12-20 Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 Top 31-51 Win 100 150 h 57 m Show

5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110

I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. 

Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. 

I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! 

01-11-20 Titans +10 v. Ravens Top 28-12 Win 100 91 h 20 m Show

5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110

I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. 

Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. 

No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. 

On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! 

01-05-20 Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 46 Top 17-9 Win 100 125 h 29 m Show

5* NFL - Seahawks/Eagles Wild Card VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks/Eagles under 46 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Eagles and Seahawks. These two teams met up in Week 12 of the regular-season and the two combined for just 26 points in a 17-9 Seattle win at Philadelphia. 

It's hard to expect nearly double the offense in the rematch, especially with the problems both of these teams are facing offensively. Seattle's offensive line has been decimated with injuries and things got so bad at running back they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch. 

Eagles defense has played really well down the stretch and should continue that trend at home in this one. At the same time, Philadelphia's offense has been decimated with injuries and while Seattle's defense has struggled some down the stretch, they should be able to keep Wentz and the Eagles in check. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the Seahawks last 20 road games after a loss by 6 or less and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs a NFC East team. UNDER is also 24-9 in Eagles last 33 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 at home off a division win. Take the UNDER! 

01-04-20 Titans +5 v. Patriots 20-13 Win 100 13 h 39 m Show

3*  NFL - Titans/Patriots Wild Card NO-BRAINER on Titans +5 -105

I like the value here with Tennessee in this one. I just think the perception a lot of people have is that now that it's the playoffs the Patriots are going to flip a switch and become this unbeatable team at home. 

I'm just not buying it. There's clearly something wrong with New England. For them to lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17 with what was at stake, that says it all. Tom Brady and that offense are not anything close to what they use to be and as good as the defense is, they can only do so much. 

I think the Titans can pound Derrick Henry here as the New England defense is more built to stop the pass than it is the run and really make life miserable for Brady on the other side of the ball. Even if it's not enough to win the game, I don't see the Pats winning here by more than a field goal. Take Tennessee! 

12-29-19 Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos 15-16 Win 100 104 h 43 m Show

3* NFL - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Raiders +3½ -110

This is just too good a price to pass up with the Raiders. Oakland is the only team in this one with something to play for and I would have them favored in this one. Denver is getting a lot of love for winning 3 of their last 4, but I just haven't been all that impressed with them. They were down 10-0 at home to the Lions last week and needed two 4th quarter scores to cover as a touchdown favorite. 

Not the first time the Broncos have struggled with a bad team. They are just 13-28 ATS last 41 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 9-24 ATS last 33 times they have faced a marginal losing team like the Raiders with a win percentage of 40% to 49%. 

On top of that Denver is awful in the role of home favorite, as they are just 2-7 ATS last 9 times they have been asked to lay points at home. They are also a miserable 4-11 ATS last 15 division games and have failed to cover each of their last 4 meetings with the Raiders. Take Oakland! 

12-29-19 Titans v. Texans UNDER 46 35-14 Loss -110 104 h 42 m Show

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Titans/Texans under 46 -110

I really like the UNDER in Sunday's AFC South matchup between the Texans and Titans. I really think Houston is going to be going through the motions in this one. The only thing the Texans can do is move up from the No. 4 to the No. 3 seed, but chances are the Chiefs will beat the Chargers in the early slate of games and Houston will be locked into the No. 4. 

I could see the Texans either resting their starters or playing them for just a few series. There's just no incentive here for them to do anything special in this game. Offensively they are likely be very vanilla with a lot of runs and I could see them struggling to score more than 14. 

As for Tennessee they are in a must-win situation. Win and they are the No. 6 seed and in the playoffs. Lose and they are more than likely out. Titans are built for UNDERs. They are really good defensively and have an offense built around a power running game with Derrick Henry. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Houston's last 6 games vs good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards/carry. It's also 7-1 in their last 8 division games and 8-3 in their last 11 at home. Take the UNDER! 

12-29-19 Saints v. Panthers UNDER 47 Top 42-10 Loss -110 100 h 20 m Show

5* NFL - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Panthers under 47 -110

I absolutely love the UNDER 47 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. Carolina turned over the offense to rookie Will Grier last week and it couldn't have much worse. The Panthers managed 6 points and 286 total yards, failing to find the endzone. Grier was a respectable 27 of 44 for 224 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. 

It's hard to imagine it going any better against the Saints on Sunday. That means the only way this game goes over this total is if New Orleans pops off for 30+ points and I just don't see that happening. If the Saints get any kind of comfortable lead they are going to become very conventional and really try to grind this thing out. 

New Orleans still has a shot at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. However, this game only matters if they win and the Packers lose at Detroit (GB 12.5-point favorite). They can also get the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but they don't have to win to get it, as they would own the tie-breaker. If GB and SF win they are No. 3. 

You can bet they will be paying close attention that the Packers score and if Green Bay gets up big, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pulled several of their key players. Either way they aren't going to be trying to run up the score. 

UNDER is also 11-2 in New Orleans' last 13 games vs a team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 trips to Carolina. Take the UNDER! 

12-23-19 Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46 Top 23-10 Win 100 154 h 18 m Show

5* NFL - Packers/Vikings NFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Packers/Vikings under 46 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in this one. These two teams already played once this season and combined for a mere 37 points. I have a really hard time seeing them eclipsing that mark by a full 10 points. 

Green Bay's offense hasn't been nearly as good as their scoring average. Packers are 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg yet are 22nd in total offense and rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. Hard to see them figuring it out against a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league and one that is giving up just 14.2 ppg at home. 

As for Minnesota's offense, they are really short handed here with their top two running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both doubtful to play. Note that in that first game against Green Bay they had 198 yards rushing. Green Bay's defense is also playing really well at the moment. Packers have held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or less. 

UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 division home games and 7-0 in the Packers last 7 overall against a team from the NFC North. UNDER is also 10-2 in Minnesota's last 12 after a game where they scored 30 or more and 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

12-22-19 Cowboys v. Eagles +3 Top 9-17 Win 100 126 h 29 m Show

5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115

I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. 

Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. 

A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. 

Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. 

Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! 

12-22-19 Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks 27-13 Win 100 43 h 34 m Show

4* NFL - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Cardinals +9½ -105

The Cardinals are definitely worth a look here as a near double-digit dog at Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the best records in the NFL at 11-3, but I just think it has them way overvalued here against a feisty Arizona team that is coming off a 38-24 win against the Browns. 

The biggest thing for me with Seattle and fading them at this price is the simple fact that out of their 11 wins only 1 has come by more than 8 points. On top of that, Seahawks could have a tough time not looking ahead to next week's massive game against the 49ers. Win or lose, that game against San Francisco will be for the NFC West crown and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs. 

Arizona has been a smart play in games that are expected to be high scoring. Cardinals are a dominant 14-3 ATS last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Arizona has also gone 43-26 ATS last 69 when revenging a same season loss and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a road dog. Seahawks just 2-5 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Take Arizona! 

12-22-19 Jaguars v. Falcons -7 12-24 Win 100 123 h 0 m Show

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Falcons -7 -110

I got no problem laying a touchdown here with Atlanta at home against the Jaguars. The Falcons clearly are motivated to finish this season strong. They have won 4 of their last 6 overall and are fresh off that shocking upset on the road against the 49ers. 

Jacksonville comes in off a win at Oakland, but with the way the Raiders have been playing it's hard to get excited about that. Prior to that the Jaguars had lost 5 straight all by 17 or more points. I'm confident Jacksonville will go right back to their losing ways in this one. 

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should be able to do as they please here. Atlanta comes in with the 4th ranked passing offense and Jacksonville's pass defense has regressed quite a bit down the stretch. Jags also are awful against the run, as they come in 29th, giving up 140.1 ypg. 

As for Jacksonville's offense, they have now gone 6 straight games scoring 20 or fewer points. In their last 3 games they have failed to rush for more than 90 yards and haven't thrown for more than 190. You just can't expect to be competitive on the road when you can't do anything offensively. Take Atlanta! 

12-22-19 Panthers v. Colts -6.5 6-38 Win 100 116 h 47 m Show

3* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts -6½ -110

The Colts are definitely worth a look here laying less than a touchdown at home against the Panthers. Indianapolis' playoff hopes came crashing to an end with an ugly 34-7 loss at new Orleans on Monday Night Football. 

You might think now is not the time to jump on the Colts given they no longer have a shot at the playoffs and are riding a 4-game skid, but I'm confident Indy is going to show up in their final home game. Also, the Panthers are a team that is in a complete free fall. Carolina has lost 6 straight and with 5 of the 6 losses by 8 or more. 

Things have got so bad with Panthers that they let Rivera go and now are turning to rookie Will Grier at quarterback. I'm not expecting much out of Grier in his first start, especially with it coming on the road.

On top of that, he's going to be asked to do too much with how bad the defense has been playing. Carolina has allowed 29 or more points in each of their last 5 games. They have allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their last 3, which I think speaks volumes to just how bad things have got. Panthers are aos 0-7 ATS last 2 seasons in the second half vs a team with a losing record. Take Indianapolis! 

12-22-19 Steelers -154 v. Jets 10-16 Loss -154 12 h 1 m Show

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers -154

I'm confident the Steelers are going to go into New York and get a win over the Jets, which is why I'm just taking Pittsburgh on the money line. Pittsburgh is in playoff mode early, as the Steelers are in a position that if they win their last two games they are in the playoffs as the final Wild Card in the AFC. 

If that wasn't enough motivation, there's a little extra incentive for Pittsburgh's defense, as they will be going up against former Steeler Le'Veon Bell. Considering Bell basically quit on the team with last year's holdout, I think we see the Pittsburgh defense come out looking to make life miserable for Bell and that Jets offense. 

New York is 4-2 in their last 6 games, but it's not so much a result of them playing well as it is their schedule. Those 4 wins have come against the likes of the Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Dolphins.

I just don't see the Jets being able to score enough to pull off the upset. New York ranks 31st in total offense (274.1 ypg) and 28th in scoring (17.6 ppg). They also rank 30th in passing (196.6 ypg) and 31st in rushing (77.6 ypg). Take Pittsburgh! 

12-21-19 Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 23-20 Loss -110 15 h 21 m Show

3* NFL - Texans/Bucs Over/Under ANNIHILATOR on Texans/Bucs over 50 -110

The OVER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's first of 3 NFL games that has the Texans visiting the Bucs. I just don't think either side is going to be able to keep the other team from moving the football up and down the field. 

Houston comes in ranked 11th in the NFL in passing at 245.0 ypg and will be up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL as the Bucs are 30th against the pass, allowing 276.8 ypg. Also, Texans are an even more potent offense when they got all 3 of their weapons on the outside in Hopkins, Stills and Fuller and all 3 are a go here. 

As for Tampa, the Bucs haven't had any problem racking up offensive numbers. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total offense (400.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (29.7 ppg). Jameis Winston continues to make too many mistakes, but when he isn't throwing to the other team he's carving up opponents no matter who he has at his disposal. He should be in store for another big game here against a Texans defense that ranks 28th against the pass, giving up 266.1 ypg.

OVER is 11-3 in Bucs games this year, including 4-1 at home. OVER is also 11-3 in Tampa's last 14 vs excellent passing teams and 6-0 vs awful pass defenses (allowing completion rate of 64% or better). Take the OVER! 

12-16-19 Colts v. Saints OVER 46 7-34 Loss -110 85 h 56 m Show

4* NFL - Colts/Saints MNF Vegas INSIDER on Colts/Saints over 46 -110

I love the value here with the OVER on Monday Night Football. New Orleans just seems to always deliver a big offensive performance when playing at home in prime time games and it's hard to see the Colts slowing down Drew Brees and that high-powered passing attack after Jameis Winston just torched the Indy defense for 467 yards and 4 TDs in their last game. Tampa Bay finished with 542 yards of total offense. Colts defense is much better suited to slow down run-first teams. 

The key here is I don't think New Orleans will be able to take their foot off the gas. The Saints defense has been really good for the most part this season, but a big reason for that is the play they were getting up front. Unfortunately for NO they just lost two studs from the defensive line to season ending injuries in defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. They also are dealing with some injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. 

OVER is 11-3 in the Saints last 14 games under head coach Sean Payton on Monday Night Football and 29-12 in their last 41 at home off a loss by 6 or less. OVER is also 15-3 in the Colts last 18 on the road after giving up 35 or more points in their last game. Take the OVER! 

12-15-19 Bills v. Steelers UNDER 36.5 17-10 Win 100 72 h 55 m Show

4* NFL - SNF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Steelers under 36½ -110

Even when there's every reason to believe there's going to be little to no offense in a game, the betting public struggles to stomach an under with a total less than 40. I just can't help myself here, as this is just one of those games where both offenses are going to have a hard time just getting first downs. 

With all the injuries the Steelers have had on offense they really have leaned hard on their defense to win games and the stop unit has been up to the task. Pittsburgh has held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer. Buffalo has a little more offensive fire-power, but not much. Bills also want to win games with their defense. 

Buffalo comes in 3rd in the NFL in total defense (296.8 ypg) and the Steelers have the 28th ranked offense (290.1 ypg). Pittsburgh's stop unit is 5th in total defense (310.9 ypg) and the Bills are 20th in total offense (341.9 ypg). 

UNDER is 10-3 in the Bills 16 games this season and a perfect 6-0 in 2019 when they are listed as a dog. UNDER is also 11-3 in their last 14 on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Steelers 13 games this season, 12-4 in their last 16 off a cover and 7-0 in their last 7 after playing their previous game against a team from the NFC. Take the UNDER! 

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