Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-14 | Houston Texans +3.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5 Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time. |
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11-16-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. NY Giants +4.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5 Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants. |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -4 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4 Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 29 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7 Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6 Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse. |
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11-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New Orleans Saints | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6 Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5 Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7 Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5 Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York. |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins | 0-37 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts. |
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11-02-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Major Letdown Game of the Week on Jaguars +11.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Cincy following last week's emotional win over Baltimore. The Bengals play the Thursday game next week against division rival Cleveland and will have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest. Playing against home favorites that have a winning record on the season and are off an upset win at home over a division rival has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record since 1983. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 73 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5 Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets. |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3 Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 5 points or more in the first half has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they scored 14 points or less last game. The Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with a New Orleans side that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The Panthers rank 24th, and they haven't been good enough defensively to offset their offensive shortcomings. They've allowed an average of 31.2 points over their last six games. Field position will also likely go New Orleans' way. The Saints are 7-0 ATS lifetime in games played in Week 9 or later versus poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 yards per return or more under coach Payton. They have won by an average of 18.6 points in this spot. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5 Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -128 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy SNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -128 Bottom Line: The Saints have won 10 straight inside the Superdome and are in great position to extend their streak Sunday night. The Green Bay defense has really struggled on the road where it is giving up an average of 6 yards per play. That doesn't bode well for the Packers as the Saints are 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when they gain an average of 6 or more yards per game. They have won these 7 games by 20.6 points on average. A New Orleans offense that ranks 2nd in the league should be able to take advantage. Pound the Saints. |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1 Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati. |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions v. Atlanta Falcons +4 | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL *BLOOD BATH* on Falcons +4 Bottom Line: Atlanta is 2-5 but isn't about to throw in the towel. It's just one game behind division leader Carolina in the win column, and there's a whole lot of football left to be played. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since 1992 in games played away from home following a road blowout loss of 21 points or more. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Atlanta. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -8.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5 Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 23-30 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5 Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 53 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7 Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York. |
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10-19-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 0-27 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3 Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals. |
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10-19-14 | Atlanta Falcons +7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -135 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta. |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10 Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4 Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams. |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5 Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland. |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +10.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5 Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company. |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3 Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%. |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major Thursday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Colts -2.5 Bottom Line: The Colts have owned the AFC South and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 division games. They've also won 9 straight on Thursday with 7 of those coming on the road. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games while the Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. The Colts are 3-0 in their last 3 versus Houston. Indianapolis is the superior team with the superior QB. It leads the NFL in scoring and ranks 2nd in total offense. Its passing attack leads the league with 321.8 ypg. The defense has really picked it up too, holding foes to just 15.7 points and 297.3 yards the last 3 weeks. Houston ranks 24th in scoring and 22nd in total offense. It ranks 4th in scoring defense but is extremely fortunate that's the case because it ranks 26th in total defense with 385.4 ypg allowed. The Texans have benefited from timely takeaways but eventually the luck runs out. Bet the Colts. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +8 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +8 Bottom Line: The Redskins are a better team than their record leads you to believe, and I expect them to respond after getting spanked by the Giants in their last game. Washington boasts a Top 10 offense and defense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 415.2 ypg and 9th with 324.2 ypg allowed. The Redskins are also one of the top pass rushing teams in the league. They are 11-4 all-time in regular-season matchups with Seattle, including 6-0 in the last 6. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that give up 24 ppg or more and are off a loss of 28 points or more are 68-34 ATS since 1983. This system is 1-0 ATS this season, 10-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS the last 5 and 33-12 ATS the last 10. Pound Washington. |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *BLOOD BATH* on Jets +7 Bottom Line: The Jets are better than their 1-3 record might lead you to believe. They have outgained their foes 366 yards to 291 yards on average. The Chargers have outgained their opponents just 352-325 on average. The Jets allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and rank 3rd in total defense at 291.2. The Chargers are getting nothing from their running game following injuries to Matthews and Woodhead. Rivers was able to do it on his own against Jacksonville, but this New York defense is too good. I expect it to wreak havok against a one-dimension San Diego offensive attack. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 6 of the last 8 meetings. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 at San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Jets. |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Broncos -7.5 Bottom Line: With an OT loss at Seattle in last game, Denver entered its bye week knowing it needs to step it up if it's going to dethrone the Seahawks at season's end. Denver has responded well, going 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. It is also 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. The Broncos are 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Fox. Playing against any team off an upset home win over a division rival has resulted in a 40-13 ATS record since 1983, provided they are a winning team playing another team with a winning record. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 7-1-1 against Arizona, including 4-0 at home while outscoring the Red Birds 106-32. |
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10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills +7.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Bills +7.5 Bottom Line: The Bills are being greatly undervalued because of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defense played well in both games, but the Bills were let down by QB play. Detroit's back-to-back SU and ATS wins also plays into us catching a great number. The Bills will benefit from the insertion of Orton, who is a more accurate passer than Manuel and will be smarter with the football. His experience works in our favor in this matchup. This is too many points for Buffalo to be catching given how good it has been defensively. It ranks 7th in the league in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed and 10th in total defense with 337.8 ypg allowed. I also like Buffalo to be able to run the football. The Lions hadn't been tested on the ground until last week when the Jets rushed for 132 yards on nearly 5 ypc. I expect the Bills, who average 122.2 ypg on the ground, to establish the run Sunday after getting away from their ground game the past couple weeks. If Detroit wants to stack the box, Orton has proven he can make teams pay. The Bills are 10-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons and have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound Buffalo. |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC North Total of the Month on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48.5 Bottom Line: I love the UNDER in tonight's NFL matchup. Plays on the UNDER when the total if 42.5-49 points in a matchup of average offensive teams that score 18-23 ppg after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 120-63 record since 1983. The Green Bay defense is trending in the right direction, giving up 19 and 17 points the last 2 weeks against much more explosive offensive teams (Lions and Bears). Minnesota scored 41 last week but that was against an Atlanta defense that is among the worst in the NFL. Pound the UNDER. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots -2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots -2.5 Bottom Line: The Patriots are showing value laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead where the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Kansas City has lost their last 4 at home straight up by an average of 10.5 points. New England has yet to get its offense going the way we are used to seeing, but I like its chances of doing so against a KC defense that has been very mediocre thus far. The KC offense has struggled every bit as much as New England's offensive unit, and it will have a tough time getting much of anything against a New England defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.7). Playing road teams with a +3 to +7 ppg differential that are up against a team with a +3 to -3 ppg differential, provided the road team has allowed 17 points or less in its last 2 games, has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pats. |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3 Bottom Line: New Orleans has owned the Cowboys. It is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in Dallas during this span. It racked by 625 yards in last season's 49-17 win over the Boys, and I expect an encore performance. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 versus teams with a losing record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 versus a team with a winning record. |
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09-28-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Vikings +3 Bottom Line: While this wouldn't be a shocking upset according to the spread, it would be according to public perception. Atlanta hasn't been the same team on the road, and I believe it is in serious danger here. The Falcons are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the lone win during this stretch coming by 3 points in OT. In other words, Atlanta has failed to cover this number in its last 9 road games. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Additionally, Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games the last 22 years versus teams that have outscored their opponent by 10.0 ppg or more on the season. |
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09-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +14 v. San Diego Chargers | 14-33 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Jaguars +14 Bottom Line: The Jags have lost the ugly the first 3 weeks, but I believe they are a surefire winner catching big points Sunday. Playing any team with a win percentage of 25% or less after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in 3 consecutive games has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Titans +7.5 Bottom Line: This line is off the mark. Tennessee has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of its last 8 matchups with Indy. Tennessee is on an 11-2 ATS run after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. And, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that score 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (16-2 ATS the last 3 seasons). |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Bucs +9 Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Steelers early, and I expect that to continue to be the case right up to kickoff. However, I think the Steelers get the public burned here. Playing on poor offensive teams like Tampa Bay that average 14-18 ppg after a loss by 21 points or more has resulted in a 24-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team like the Steelers that allow 23-27 ppg. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 14 points. |
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09-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. NY Jets +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 45 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Jets +2 Bottom Line: The Lions are an ugly 8-22 ATS as road chalk the last 22 years, including 4-13 ATS in this as a road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets 16-6 ATS after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Pound New York. |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -118 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC North Game of the Year on Packers -118 Bottom Line: Green Bay is in a foul mood following a 1-2 start, and I expect it to come storming back against a Chicago Bears team it has owned. Green Bay is 32-13 versus the Bears since 1992 and 18-5 in Chicago during this span. Chicago is 0-6 ATS under Trestman in home games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. It is also 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 at Soldier Field. Pound the Packers. |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins -3 | 45-14 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins -3 Bottom Line: Washington lost a tough in Philadelphia last week but will have no problem getting up for this game after getting swept by the Giants last year. Playing favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 74-38 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 95-125 rushing yards per game (while I recommend buying down to key number 3, I still like this play at 3.5 - the widely available number at the time of this report - and that's why this system applies). Washington didn't do a very good job of establishing the run against Philadelphia. I expect it to do so here to set up some easy play-action opportunities. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Washington. Bet the Redskins. |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 27-19 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF Game of the Month on Jets -2.5 Bottom Line: I love the Jets at home tonight as I expect them to run all over a Bears defense that ranks next to last in the league with 160 rushing yards allowed per game. The Jets have been the best rushing team in the NFL thus far, racking up 170 yards per game on the ground. Additionally, New York is the better defensive team. It ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense with only 274 yards per game allowed. The Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay last week and will be hungry as a result. I think it will be a tough encore for the Bears going on the road for a second straight week, especially after last week's emotional victory over the 49ers. That win wasn't nearly as impressive as it looks considering the Bears were outgained by 145 yards. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS in road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992 and 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992. Pound the Jets. |
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09-21-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 37-19 | Win | 100 | 103 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3.5 Bottom Line: Motivation won't be an issue for the Steelers, who were kicked last Thursday night in Baltimore. This is also a strong situational spot for Pittsburgh as it will have had 3 extra days to prepare. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS all-time versus the Panthers and have won the last 4 meetings straight up by an average of 21.0 points. Grab the points with Pittsburgh. |
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09-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | 44-17 | Loss | -114 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jaguars +7 Bottom Line: The Jaguars are showing a lot of value catching 7 at home. Indy will be hungry following a 0-2 start but it has some major problems on defense and one fewer day to figure out those problems having played on Monday. Jacksonville will also be hungry following an 0-2 start, and it will also by jacked up for its home opener. It lost by 34 points on this field to the Colts last season so I expect an inspired performance. Plays on underdogs or pickems that won only 25% to 40% of their games the previous season, provided they are playing a conference opponent, have resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These dogs have lost by just 0.7 points on average. Jacksonville has a solid opportunity to shock the Colts. Grab the points. |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Oddsmaker Error Game of the Year on Giants +2.5 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Giants outgained Arizona 341-266 but fell victim to a -4 turnover margin. The Texans are 2-0 but were outgained by 56 and 37 yards in those contests. They have benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin. Turnovers shouldn't factor this much into the line as they can't be handicapped well, especially this early in the season. We are getting the Giants at home at an excellent number here because odds makers are overreacting to turnover margin. Plays on any team that didn't force a turnover last game that is up against an opponent that forced 3 or more turnovers last game has resulted in a 130-79 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road contest. Pound New York. |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Major Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Buccaneers +7 Bottom Line: In the first month of the season, playing against home teams off a road loss that closed last season with two or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 107-61 (64%) ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing underdog of 3.5 to 10 points that won just 25% to 40% of their games last season has resulted in a 28-8 (78%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Tampa Bay has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 14 meetings. Bet the Bucs. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Colts -3 Bottom Line: One thing you can't do is go against Andrew Luck following a loss. Since taking over as QB of the Colts, they are an unbeaten 10-0 straight up and ATS off a defeat in the regular season. Last season they crushed the 49ers by 20 on the road and beat Denver by 6 at home following losses. These are clearly 2 of the best teams in the NFL. The Eagles only won 1 game against playoff teams last season. That was against Green Bay, which was playing without Aaron Rodgers. Philadelphia's O-line is in bad shape. The Eagles benefited from having the same O-line for 17 games last season but will struggle here against a good team without the unit in tact. Additionally, the Colts are an unbeaten 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss on the road and have won these contests by 8.1 points on average. They are 6-0 ATS at home during this span after giving up 30 points or more in their last game and have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation. Pound Indy. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Bears +7 Bottom Line: I expect to see a completely different Bears team in San Francisco Sunday evening. The Bears stunk it up at home in Week 1, and they haven't forgotten the beating they took the last time they visited San Francisco. They will be extremely motivated. The Bears have too much offensive talent to be getting this kind of disrespect from oddsmakers. The 49ers are offensively challenged at times and were outgained by 63 yards in Dallas last week. The difference was their +4 turnover margin. Turnovers cost the Bears last week, and I expect to see much better decision making from Jay Cutler. This is a huge game for Chicago given how tough its schedule is going forward, and I expect it to respond. |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +6 Bottom Line: Because Seattle rolled at home in the Week 1 opener and because it has had extra rest, we are getting a great line. Seattle isn't the same team on the road where it is just 20-36 in the regular season the last 7 years. San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it is 45-19 the last 8 seasons. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after giving up more than 350 yards in their last game. Pound San Diego. |
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09-14-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. NY Giants +3 | 25-14 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Giants +3 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Arizona as it heads on the road following Monday's thrilling comeback win against the Chargers. This is a bounce back spot for the Giants, who were brutally embarrassed in Detroit. Given the situation, the Giants shouldn't be catching points at home. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC opponents and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Bet New York. |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -3 v. Minnesota Vikings | 30-7 | Win | 106 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
4* Major *EARLY BLOWOUT* on Patriots -3 Bottom Line: No team bounces back better than the Patriots, who are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games following a loss. It can be tough playing on the road in back-to-back weeks, but the Pats are 11-2 ATS under Belichick in road games off a road loss. They've won these contests by an average of 11.8 points. I'm betting on Tom Brady and company to bounce back. *Adrian Peterson is out and the line has adjusted, but I still like the Patriots laying 7 or less. |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -1 Bottom Line: The Ravens are in a much better spot playing a home game off a home game in a short week. It's much tougher going on the road in a short week. Baltimore has won 4 of its last 6 in the series, and I believe it will be the more motivated side after falling to Cincinnati in Week 1. The Ravens have been outstanding at home, going an amazing 39-10 in their last 49 regular-season home games. Playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game that are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in an 80-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Baltimore. |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants v. Detroit Lions -6 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Lions -6 Bottom Line: The Lions will be the hungrier team tonight. They were defeated at home in overtime in Week 16 by the Giants last season in a game they led by 7 points late in the 4th quarter. They outgained the Giants 355 to 279 in the game and dominated the time of possession. They should have won the contest, and I expect them to have their revenge. While NY made improvements to the defensive side of the football, an offensive line that allowed Eli Manning to be sacked a career-high 39 times remains suspect, especially since free-agent pickup Geoff Schwartz will be out at least the first 7 games with a dislocated toe. I expect Suh, Fairley and company to wreak havoc tonight. Pound the Lions. |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -102 | 57 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Broncos -7.5 Bottom Line: The Broncos enter the season highly motivated following a pathetic showing in the Super Bowl. A 39-33 loss at Indy last year should only add fuel to the fire. Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 points under John Fox. Additionally, playing against road underdogs of 3.5-10 points that has a winning record last season has resulted in an 18-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. For Manning, last year's defeat to his former club can't be sitting well. Look for him to do something about it here. |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC South Game of the Year on Buccaneers -2 Bottom Line: I love the Bucs in their season opener. They have a coach (Lovie Smith) who has shown he can win in the National Football League, and I expect him to have them extremely well prepared. Plus, Tampa will be extremely motivated by a pair of butt-kickings they received by Carolina last season. The Bucs will be improved on both sides of the football, and they catch Carolina at the perfect time. Cam Newton isn't healthy, and he has a new receiving corps to adjust to. It takes time to build timing and chemistry, and I don't expect the Panthers to have it early. The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run in this series, and I look for this trend to continue. Pound the Bucs. |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 50 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Falcons +3 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Falcons went 4-12 last season but had 7 defeats of 7 points or fewer. This series has been highly competitive with the home team holding the advantage. The home side has won or lost by 3 points or less in 11 of the last 12 meetings so I feel really good about catching a field goal in this one. The Falcons aren't used to losing, especially at home, so they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate. |
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09-07-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Chicago Bears | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bills +7 Bottom Line: The Bills have a legit opportunity to shock a Bears team that is getting way too much respect from odds makers. The Bears shined offensively in 2013 but ranked 30th in total defense and gave up a league-high 2,583 rushing yards. The Bears are a weak 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Underdogs of 3.5-10 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Grab the points. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Opener on Packers +6 Bottom Line: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued in their home opener as you might expect. Green Bay enters the season hungry following a mediocre 8-8-1 campaign and will draw a little extra motivation from getting robbed in Seattle by the "Fail Mary" when it last visited in 2012. Despite the loss, the Packers have won or lost by fewer than the 6 points we are getting here in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 versus Seattle. That's a 7-1 trend with a perfect 4-0 tightener. Green Bay is a reliable 40-27 ATS in road games under coach McCarthy, and I expect it to take the Seahawks down to the wire tonight. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos -2 | Top | 43-8 | Loss | -106 | 294 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Super Bowl *BEST BET* on Broncos -2
Bottom Line: Seattle has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, but Denver has the best offense in the league and Seattle hasn't seen anything like it all season. If you want to beat Denver, you better be able to put some points on the board, and I don't see Seattle putting up quite enough. In Denver's 3 losses it gave up 27, 34 and 39 points, and I don't see Seattle putting up a number that big. The Seahawks average 25.7 ppg but have averaged just 20.5 over their last 6 games. So much of what Seattle does offensively stems from its running game and Denver has shown it can stop the run with its 7th-ranked run defense. Ultimately, I love the veteran Peyton Manning making more plays than Russell Wilson. Manning has the decisive edge in terms of experience. I also believe he'll want this game just a little bit more as he tries to put an exclamation point on a sensational career. Seattle is on a 6-17 ATS slide when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more while Denver is on a 15-2 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Broncos are also an impressive 21-8 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Pound Denver. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 294 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Seahawks/Broncos OVER 47.5
Bottom Line: Plays on the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points on an excellent offensive team like Denver that averages 27.0 ppg or more has resulted in a 27-5 record since 1983 if they have allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games and are matched up with a good defensive team that allows just 14-18.0 ppg. We have seen an average posted total of 45.6 points in these games but an average of 56.2 total points scored. This system is 12-1 the last 10 seasons and a perfect 5-0 the last 5 seasons. We are getting a great number here because Seattle has finished Under the total in 7 straight, and Denver has finished Under in 5 straight. Pound the Over. |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 17-23 | Loss | -103 | 98 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NFC Championship *PUNISHER* on 49ers +3.5
Bottom Line: I like the 49ers catching better than a field goal in a game that very likely will come down to a field goal. San Francisco's last two trips to Seattle haven't gone well, but the 49ers are playing far too good on both sides of the football and are playing with far too much confidence not to take the Seahawks down to the wire with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. In a game I expect to be close, I give the edge to a San Francisco team that is playing in its 3rd straight NFC Championship game and has proven it can win big games on the road. Last year, the 49ers beat the Falcons in Atlanta to advance to the Super Bowl. The previous year they lost a 3-point game at home in OT to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants. Colin Kaepernick also has more big game experience than Russell Wilson. Kaepernick is 4-1 in the postseason, including 3-0 on the road. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 true road games. They are also 10-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Conference Championship Game of the Year on Broncos -4
Bottom Line: The Patriots won the regular-season meeting, but they were at home and had to overcome a 24-0 deficit. They also had the services of Rob Gronkowski in that game while Denver didn't have Julius Thomas. New England hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6, and it clearly has fewer weapons than Denver. The Patriots have leaned on their running game lately, but Denver's 7th-ranked run defense won't allow them to do so. And without Gronk commanding attention, Julian Edelman with have a tougher time finding openings. Peyton Manning's stable of playmakers (Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Knowshon Moreno and Julius Thomas) should find plenty of success against a depleted New England defense. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Championship games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Denver is also 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.6 points in these games. Pound Denver. |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +9.5 v. Denver Broncos | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Playoffs Bailout on Chargers +9.5
Bottom Line: The Chargers' win in Denver a month ago sets up a situation that has been money. Playing against home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off back-to-back covers as a favorite has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home mark, and the road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Chargers are playing free and loose, and they'll be lacking no confidence going into Denver. The Broncos will need an unbelievable game from Manning to win this game because their defense is very susceptible, especially against the pass. Philip River will make enough plays to keeps this one within the number. |
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on 49ers pk
Bottom Line: The 49ers have advanced to the NFC Championship each of the past two seasons. They've also won their last two road playoff games, and I expect their postseason dominance to continue. Carolina won the earlier meeting 10-9 in San Francisco, but that wasn't the same 49er team it will see Sunday. The San Francisco offense has become a lot more dynamic since the return of Crabtree, going 6-0 since he made his way back into the lineup. With Crabtree playing at a high level, Carolina won't be able to focus all its attention on Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. It also won't be able to sit on the run. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have a winning mark at home. The Niners are also 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 13.9 points on average (I got the 49ers at a pk, but they are still favored at a lot of places so this trend applies). Pound San Francisco. |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Patriots -7
Bottom Line: Indianapolis has some really good wins this season, but it hasn't beaten anyone without Reggie Wayne. It is 7-3 since Wayne went down but has benefited from a soft schedule. It has played three good teams on the road during this stretch (Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City), and it was blown out by the Cardinals and Bengals. The Colts had a miraculous comeback to beat the Chiefs last week, but I haven't been sold on the Chiefs all season. I think Indy runs into a buzz saw here. The Pats are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home when laying 7.5 points or less. Playing against road teams off an upset win at home has resulted in a 53-21 ATS record since 1983 provided they are a winning team playing against winning team. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Pound the Pats. |
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints +8 v. Seattle Seahawks | 15-23 | Push | 0 | 73 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Major NFC Divisional Playoff *SUREFIRE* on Saints +8
Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs or pickems that average 24.0 ppg or more and are off a win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 66-32 ATS record since 1983. This system is a strong 11-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Saints are too experienced and too good on both sides of the football to get buried in Seattle again. I'll take the points. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
4* Major NFC Wild Card Bailout on Packers +3
Bottom Line: Green Bay is a completely different team with Aaron Rodgers under center, and I expect him to lead the Packers to a win Sunday afternoon. San Francisco won the regular season matchup 34-28. However, when the line is +3 to -3, teams that are looking for revenge for a loss of 7 points or fewer are 28-9 ATS the last 10 seasons, provided they are off a victory against a division foe. This system tightens up to 17-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Green Bay is also a stunning 13-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the schedule versus teams that outscore the opposition by 6.0 points per game or more. The Packers are 8-1 ATS under coach McCarthy versus good defensive teams that give up 17.0 points per game or fewer. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Chargers +7
Bottom Line: The Bengals won the regular season meeting 17-10 in San Diego, but they benefited from a bye week prior to that contest. They also caught the San Diego at a good time as it was in a letdown spot following a big road win in Kansas City. San Diego has been playing do-or-die games for a month since then, and it has won them all, including an impressive win in Denver. We've seen it before. Teams that get hot at the right time have been very dangerous in the playoffs, and the Chargers have the look of a dangerous team. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in January and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 wild card games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Pound San Diego. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Saints +3
Bottom Line: Much has been made of New Orleans' issues on the road. The Saints went 3-5 on the road this season but easily could have been better than that. They lost in the closing seconds in New England and Carolina, two teams I have rated higher than the Eagles. Road losses to the Jets and Rams look bad, but both of those teams can play a little defense. The Eagles haven't shown they can stop a team as prolific as New Orleans as they rank 29th in total defense and last against the pass. The Eagles are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but the Saints are 10-2 ATS under Payton versus teams that average 27.0 points per game or more, defeating these teams by 12.0 points on average. Philadelphia is 3-12 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Pound the Saints. |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -116 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC Wild Card *SUREFIRE* on Colts -116
Bottom Line: I'm not sold on the Chiefs, who started 9-0 but have closed 2-5. The Colts won the regular season matchup 23-7 in Kansas City, and I expect a repeat performance at home where they have wins over Seattle and Denver. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 14 points. Indy is 6-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus poor defensive teams like KC that allow an average of 350.0 yards per game or more, and it has won these games by 7.3 points on average. Indy is also 9-0 ATS in home games when the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 6 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: This line is a gross overreaction to Tony Romo being out. Frankly, I don't miss Romo at all here as he was 0-3 in regular-season finales with the division title at stake. Kyle Orton has had his share of success in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to succeed here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league against the pass. Playing against road favorites that average 27 or more ppg has resulted in a 37-15 ATS record since 1983 if they led in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. Dallas has had Philly's number, winning each of the last three meetings. Pound the Cowboys. |
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 60 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +13
Bottom Line: December home underdogs or pickems are 94-53 ATS since 1983 provided they enter off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses. Playing against any team after a win by 14 or more points that is up against an opponent off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons. |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-34 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC North *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Ravens +6.5
Bottom Line: Don't count Baltimore out following last week's ugly loss to New England. The Ravens are 4-0 under coach John Harbaugh following a defeat of 20 points or more. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS under their current coach after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these 7 contests by an average of 19.4 points. Lastly, the Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. |
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Falcons +14.5
Bottom Line: The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, but Atlanta isn't about to roll over. The Falcons were stunned in last season's NFC title game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the 49ers. That loss haunted this team all off season, and it will motivate Atlanta tonight. Atlanta may not have been impressive in last week's win over Washington, but it is on a 10-2 ATS run in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yards. Plus, playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the number in 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 56-24 ATS record since 1983 if they are a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. Pound Atlanta. |
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 11-54 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +3
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with the Bears because they likely need to win out to win the NFC North. The Lions have an excellent chance to win out with games against the Giants and Vikings to finish the season and Chicago can't afford to slip up because Detroit owns the tiebreaker. I'm confident the Lions will find a way to beat the Giants, which means the Bears need to take care of business to hold the position of controlling their own destiny. Philly can win the NFC East by beating the Bears if Dallas loses its earlier game against the Redskins. If Dallas beats Washington, the Eagles will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand knowing their playoff fate comes down to a Week 17 showdown at Dallas. If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, the Bears would need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Regardless if this game can decide anything for either team, the Bears are the play because of their passing game with Cutler or McCown. The Eagles are terrible against the pass, going 0-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their pass attempts. Philly is also 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Chicago has the slightly better defense with or without Lance Briggs, who is listed as probable. Bet the Bears. |
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
Bottom Line: I like New England to win this game. The Patriots have been awesome in bounce-back spots, going 33-5 in their last 38 following a defeat, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are a lethal 15-5 ATS under Belichick following a close loss of 6 points or less. They have responded to win by an average of 12.4 points in this spot. The Patriots lost both meetings to Baltimore last season. One of those cost Tom Brady and company a trip to the Super Bowl so this is a game New England wants desperately. The regular-season loss came by a single point and the Pats have won or lost by fewer than 2.5 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Pound New England. |
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12-22-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 v. St. Louis Rams | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major Early *BEST BET* on Bucs +5
Bottom Line: St. Louis has struggled to defend the pass, and that will give Tampa Bay an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. The Bucs are on a 13-4 ATS run in road games in the second half of the schedule versus teams allowing an average of 7.0 yards or more per pass. Head coach Jeff Fisher prefers to play close to the vest. Because of his mentality, his teams are only 29-47 ATS lifetime when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions -6.5
Bottom Line: The Detroit offense has been unstoppable at Ford Field where it is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.7 points per game. It should be able to move the football almost at will against a Baltimore defense that has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, largely because the defense is allowing 26.8 ppg on the highway. The defense isn't solely to blame as it has had to spend way too much time on the field because of an offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Baltimore's only hope is to come up with some takeaways, but it has been among the least opportunistic teams in the AFC all season. The Detroit offense couldn't do much of anything in Philly last week in harsh conditions. However, the Lions are on a 25-6 ATS run after being held to 4.0 yards or less per play in their previous game. Pound the Lions. |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't had near the success on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8. The Bengals have also been a poor investment in division play at 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 versus the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC North and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 versus the Bengals. Roethlisberger is playing well, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 4 games, and he has a great track record versus Cincy (14-6 lifetime). Cincy has defeated the Steelers by more than 3 points just twice in the last 14 meetings. That's a 12-2 trend leaving no doubt we're on the right side. Bet the Steelers. |
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +7 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Rams +7
Bottom Line: New Orleans isn't the same team on the road, period. I know this game will be in a dome, but the Saints struggled to win at the Georgia Dome Nov. 21 and also lost by double-digits as a 13.5-point favorite the last time they visited the Edward Jones Dome. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of the season under Fisher versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Additionally, playing against favorites off a win of 14 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points has resulted in a 26-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons. |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +5.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record since 1983 if they're up against a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have lost by only 2.2 points on average. This system tightens up to 8-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West while the Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups. |
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12-15-13 | Buffalo Bills -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Bills -1
Bottom Line: Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 34-18 last season while outgaining the Jaguars 344-236. I fully expect the Bills to dominate again in what is a highly-motivated spot. Buffalo held a closed-door meeting following last week's ugly loss at Tampa Bay. That means this team is serious about finishing the season strong. Buffalo has shown what it is capable of with nice wins over the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins - teams with winning records. The Bills also nearly pulled off wins against the Patriots and Bengals and outgained the Chiefs 470-210. The Bills have been a tremendous investment when coming off a road loss, going 9-1 ATS in this situation the last 2 seasons. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Playing road teams after the first month of the season if the line is +3 to -3 and they are off a road defeat has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Buffalo. |
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chargers +10.5
Bottom Line: San Diego played Denver to an 8-point game in the first meeting despite getting off to a terrible start. It was able to come back behind a defense that held the Broncos to a season-low 397 yards and an offense that ranks 4th in the league. In a game San Diego absolutely must have to hang on to its slim postseason hopes, I expect it to give the Broncos a game. Denver is on a 5-15 ATS skid after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. The Broncos are also on a 9-22 ATS skid when playing against teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season versus teams that complete 64% or more of their passes. The road team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run, and the Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 matchups in Denver. Pound San Diego. |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are off 2 or more consecutive losses ATS has resulted in a 93-52 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing all teams (Chicago) when the line is +3 to -3 that average 5.7 yards or more per play has resulted in a 55-28 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they have allowed an average of 400.0 yards or more in their last 3 games. The Cowboys have struggled late in the season, going 11-15 in Romo's December starts. They are also just 6-16 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule over the last 3 seasons, including 0-7 ATS during this stretch when matched up against an excellent offensive team that averages 375 or more yards per game. Dallas is only 9-20 ATS when laying points under Garrett. Pound Chicago. |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3
Bottom Line: Look for New Orleans to bounce-back strong at home where they are on an 18-5 ATS run. The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009, and they are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 21.4 points in this spot. |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers -2.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Seahawks following their huge MNF victory over the Saints. Seattle is on a 3-12 ATS slide in road games after a win by 21 or more points, losing by an average of 5.4 points in these games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. |
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12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers -3 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 75 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Chargers -3
Bottom Line: The Chargers have dropped 4 of 5 but have been on the road 3 times during this stretch and have played some good football teams (Denver, KC, Cincy). They'll rebound here against a Giants squad that has dropped 4 of 6 on the road. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. |
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12-08-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Year on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Cincy rolls at home against the struggling Colts. Indy is not the same team that has wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. It is 3-2 over its last 5 games but could have been 0-5 during this stretch despite playing just 1 team that currently has a winning record. It hasn't been able to protect Luck, and the constant pressure has taken a toll as he has two touchdowns, five interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating over his last four contests. He's been sacked 29 times this season and was dropped a season-worst five times last week. He will face more pressure here against a Cincy team that has recorded 18 sacks over its last five games. The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning these games by an average of 16.4 points. Pound Cincy. |
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jaguars +3.5
Bottom Line: I was on the Texans last week as they covered a big spread in New England while giving the Patriots all they wanted and more. That tough loss sets them up for letdown here, playing on the road in a very short week. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread. Houston has consistently played to the level of its competition under Kubiak, going 1-9 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that give up 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by 2.3 points on average. Pound the Jags. |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Seahawks -4.5
Bottom Line: Seattle ranks No. 2 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. With this defense, it has dominated good offensive teams like New Orleans, especially in the latter part of the season. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in the second half of their schedule over the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 24.0 points or more per game. They have crushed these teams by an average of 11.5 points. Seattle is also 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 5.65 yards or more per play. It has blasted these teams by an average of 18.4 points. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their passes (17.2-pt avg. margin of victory in these games) and 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 7.0 yards per pass or more (5.8-pt avg. winning margin in these games). The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Last but not least, Seattle is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 26.7 points in these games. Pound Seattle. |
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12-01-13 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +1.5
Bottom Line: Tom Coughlin's NFL teams are just 3-12 ATS lifetime following an upset loss at home to a divisional opponent. The Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, and they've struggled against Washington. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning 3 of these straight up as an underdog. |
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12-01-13 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets -120 | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 46 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Jets -120
Bottom Line: The Jets are 4-1 SU and ATS at home this season with wins over the Patriots and Saints. The Dolphins are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 road games, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Dolphins are also just 8-20-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in the series. Look for the Jets to continue their strong play at home against a Miami squad that has struggled on the road. |
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12-01-13 | New England Patriots v. Houston Texans +9 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Texans +9
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot if I've ever seen one for the Patriots as they hit the road, where they are 0-3 in their last 3, after an improbable comeback win against Denver. Playing against any team with a winning record that is off an upset victory at home has resulted in a 149-78 (65.6%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Additionally, playing underdogs of pickems in the second half of the season that are riding a losing streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 122-71 (63.2%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 4-0 ATS this season. Pound Houston. |
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -2.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs or pickems that are off an upset win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 121-71 ATS record the last 30 seasons. Additionally, playing against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win of 10 points or more has resulted in a 48-22 ATS record the last 30 seasons. The Steelers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Raiders +9.5
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5-10 points has resulted in an impressive 70-35 ATS record the last 30 seasons if they have won 2 of their last 3 games, carry a win percentage of 51%-60% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 7 points on average but have won by only 4.5 points on average. The Cowboys are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Pound the Raiders. |
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11-28-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Lions -6
Bottom Line: Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss and out for revenge for a loss to the team they're facing has resulted in a 63-28 ATS record the last 30 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.4 points and have won by an average of 12.1. This system is an almost-flawless 11-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +6
Bottom Line: Odds makers are giving a 49ers team that ranks 29th in total offense too much respect on the road. Consider that playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season has resulted in a 65-31 ATS record the last 30 years if they carry a 51-60% win percentage, have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are playing a losing team. This system is a hot 12-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against road favorites that have covered the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in a 60-28 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a losing team. Washington is just 3-7 but has played 6 of those on the road where it has struggled. The Redskins are 6-2 in their last 8 regular-season home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Pound the Redskins. |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots +3
Bottom Line: In the battle between Brady and Manning, I'm not hesitating to go with Brady at home catching points. Brady is 9-4 all-time versus Manning, including 7-2 at home. The Pats are on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. Plus, they are 15-6 ATS versus teams that average 29.0 points or more and 17-8 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage above 75% under Belichick. |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 74 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cardinals -1
Bottom Line: Indy is extremely lucky to be 2-1 and not 0-3 in its last 3 games as it had to overcome a 24-6 deficit against the Texans and a 17-3 deficit against the Titans. It was smacked 38-8 by the Rams in the other game. Arizona has quality home wins over Detroit and Carolina and is 4-1 at home overall. It should continue its strong play at home with the knowledge Bruce Arians has of Indy's personnel and its tendencies. The defensive side of the ball has been a major issue for the Colts as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Cards are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Zona has won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot. |