11-30-17 |
Redskins v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
14-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
7* Redskins/Cowboys NFL Total of the Week on UNDER 47.5 The Key: This has the makings of a low-scoring game tonight between Washington and Dallas. Both teams have banged-up offensive lines, and the Redskins are missing several key weapons on offense. The Redskins are improving defensively, giving up just 10 points and 170 total yards to the Giants last week. The Cowboys are faltering on offense, averaging just 7.3 points and 235 yards per game in their last 3 games. Neither team was that effective on offense in their first meeting, a 33-19 Dallas win that was misleading. The Cowboys only managed 307 total yards while the Redskins were held to 285. With those small yardage outputs, their shouldn’t have been 52 total points scored. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. The Cowboys are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|
11-27-17 |
Texans v. Ravens OVER 39 |
Top |
16-23 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
7* Texans/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 39
The Key: Oddsmakers can't set a Monday Night Football total below 40. These prime time games have been going over the total at an alarming rate over the last several weeks, and I think the books have made another mistake here setting this total too low Monday night. The Ravens are clicking offensively right now, and they should be able to score at will on a depleted, bad Houston defense. The Texans got their offense going last week for the first time with Tom Savage at quarterback, scoring 31 points and managing 357 total yards against a good Arizona defense. They should score enough to help push this game OVER the total. Houston is 10-2 OVER in road games off one or more straight ATS wins over the last 3 seasons. They are scoring 50.6 combined points per game in this situation. Take the OVER.
|
11-26-17 |
Dolphins +17 v. Patriots |
Top |
17-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17
The Key: After going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, the New England Patriots are becoming that public darling once again. The betting public is going to line up to back them at any number. That provides some line value to fade them as the Patriots are now 17-point favorites against the Dolphins this week. This is their biggest favorite role of the season as they have only been a double-digit favorite one other time. The Miami Dolphins have lost four straight and haven't covered a point spread in any of their last 5 games. The betting public wants nothing to do with them, especially after their 20-30 loss to the Bucs last week. But they should have won that game as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 and managed 448 total yards. Matt Moore will find success against this soft New England defense that gives up 402 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season. The Patriots have a ton of injuries right now and will be without two starting offensive linemen in C David Andrews and OL Marcus Cannon. Bets on road teams (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Miami.
|
11-25-17 |
Temple -3 v. Tulsa |
Top |
43-22 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3
The Key: The Temple Owls sit at 5-6 and one win short of a bowl berth. They will be hungry to get that 6th victory here against Tulsa, a rebuilding team that is just 2-9 on the season. The Owls should be bigger favorites here. After beating both Navy and Cincinnati, they lost 19-45 to unbeaten UCF last week. But that was a misleading final as they actually outgained the Knights and held them to 384 total yards, but they lost the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference. Tulsa's biggest game came last week when they fell just short 20-27 at South Florida. They won't be nearly as hungry to win this week. I think the line value is with Temple due to last week's results from these two teams as the scores weren't indicative of the kinds of games they were. Temple is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Owls are 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards/game or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Temple.
|
11-24-17 |
California +7 v. UCLA |
Top |
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7
The Key: The California Golden Bears are 7-4 ATS this season and have been consistently undervalued. They gave Stanford all they wanted on the road last week as 14-point underdogs in a 14-17 loss. They had a bye coming into that game, so they should still be fresh for UCLA here. The Bruins have been overrated all season and are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS. It's likely Jim Mora will be fired at season's end. The Bruins put a lot into their 23-28 loss at USC last week, and they won't be nearly as motivated to play Cal this week. The Bruins will have played for a 7th straight week here and will be the more tired team on this short week. The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. Take California.
|
11-23-17 |
Giants +7.5 v. Redskins |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5
The Key: The Giants have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Redskins. They haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Redskins by more than 6 points. The Redskins being 7.5-point favorites in this game is a big line mistake from the books, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now. The offensive line is banged up, the front 7 defensively is missing key players, and the top two running games in Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out for the season. The Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take New York.
|
11-20-17 |
Falcons v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
92 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Falcons/Seahawks NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5
The Key: The two meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons last season saw 50 and 56 combined points. I think we get another shootout here Monday night. The Falcons and Seahawks have two of the better offenses in the NFL statistically. The Seahawks aren't as formidable on D as they once were, especially with all their injuries right now. The Legion of Boom secondary is only a shell of its former self with all of the injuries. Richard Sherman is out for the season, and Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are both banged up. Fellow cornerback Shaquille Griffin is also hurt. Matt Ryan should carve up their defense, and Russell Wilson is fully capable of keeping pace with all of the weapons at his disposal. 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen 50 or more combined points. Atlanta & Seattle have averaged 57.7 combined points per game in those 7 meetings. Take the OVER.
|
11-19-17 |
Jaguars v. Browns +8 |
Top |
19-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
61 h 39 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8
The Key: The Cleveland Browns have kept fighting. They are trying to win games, and that was evident last week. But once again they shot themselves in the foot despite outplaying the Lions for most of the game. They had a 7-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, but Deshon Kizer got hurt and they went backwards on offense. Kizer returned to lead them down the field, but threw an INT on first and goal from the 5 to lost 24-38 and fail to cover as 10-point underdogs. They also had the clock run out on them on the 1-yard line on the final play before halftime. They outgained the Lions 413 to 345 for the game. The Browns have one of the better defenses in the NFL. The key to stopping the Jaguars is stopping the run, and the Browns do a great job of that. They are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. That's very good when you consider they have been trailing for the majority of their games, and the opponents have been wanting to run the football. Bets on home dogs or PK who failed to cover 2 of their last 3, a team that's winning 25% or less of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 71-33 ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland.
|
11-18-17 |
Oklahoma v. Kansas +38 |
Top |
41-3 |
Push |
0 |
40 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38
The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off two straight massive wins against their top two contenders in the Big 12. They beat Oklahoma State 62-52 and TCU 38-20. Off those two huge wins, it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown this week. I'm not saying they'll lose to Kansas, but they certainly won't be focused enough to beat them by more than 38 points. Kansas is improving down the stretch going 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games. It only loss 20-30 at home to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and gained 482 total yards on the Wildcats. The Jayhawks only lost 27-42 at Texas last week despite committing 4 turnovers. That's a great showing against a good Texas defense. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 November games. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Kansas.
|
11-16-17 |
Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 |
Top |
17-40 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Total of the Week on Titans/Steelers OVER 44
The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have cluster injuries on their defense right now. Safety Mike Mitchell probably won't play tonight, and CB Joe Haden has been lost for the season. Veteran stalwart James Harrison is also questionable with a bad back. The Titans have one of the better offenses in the NFL and will be able to move the ball and score points on the Steelers' defense. But the Titans have a poor defense that gives up 23.7 PPG this season despite playing mostly suspect offenses. Against the better offenses they faced, they gave up 57 points to Houston, 27 to Seattle and 26 to Oakland. Pittsburgh qualifies as a good offensive football team. Take the OVER.
|
11-15-17 |
Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -2.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5
The Key: The Miami Redhawks need to win their final 2 games to make a bowl game. I like their outlook now with Gus Ragland back at quarterback. He returned from injury last week to lead the Redhawks to a 24-14 home victory over Akron, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the process. The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 3-7 and have no hopes of making a bowl game now. The motivation and the situation really favor the Redhawks, who have outgained 8 of their 10 opponents this season. That is the sign of an 8-2 team, not one that is just 4-6 right now. Take Miami Ohio.
|
11-13-17 |
Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 38 |
Top |
21-45 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* Dolphins/Panthers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 38
The Key: In today's NFL, it's tough to set any total under 40 points. This is a passing league and there's just so many variables that favor the offenses. I think this 38-point total has clearly been set too low tonight. The Dolphins have a better passing attack right now than they've had all season with Jay Cutler and DeVantae Parker back healthy. Cutler completed 34 of 42 passes for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in his return from injury against the Raiders last week. He'll have to air it out to try and keep up with the Panthers in this one. Bets on the OVER on any team against the total (CAROLINA) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (worse than -7 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 28-5 since 1983. Take the OVER.
|
11-12-17 |
Saints v. Bills +3 |
Top |
47-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
38 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3
The Key: The Buffalo Bills have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL. The Bills are 4-0 at home this year while beating their opponents by 10.5 points per game. Now Tyrod Taylor will have two key weapons back this week in Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin. Clay still leads the team in receiving despite not playing since Week 5, so he is very important. Benjamin will play in his first game in a Bills' uniform since being traded from Carolina. The Saints are getting a lot of respect now after winning 6 in a row. But their opponents have been lackluster to say the least. They beat a banged-up Cam Newton and the Panthers, Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, Matt Stafford and the Lions, Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears and a banged-up Jameis Winston and the Bucs. They have only played one true road game in their last five games. Now they have to head up to Buffalo and play outdoors in the cold weather, which hasn't been a good combination for Drew Brees in the past. The Bills have extra time to prepare after playing the Jets last Thursday. New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after covering 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread. Buffalo is 26-12 ATS at home in its last 38 games during weeks 10 through 13. Bets against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Buffalo.
|
11-11-17 |
Washington State v. Utah +1.5 |
Top |
33-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5
The Key: Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in college football. Utah Utes' fans are right on top of you, and it makes is a heck of a home-field advantage. Washington State is 1-2 in true road games with its only win coming against banged-up Oregon. The Cougars were blown out by mediocre teams in California 3-37 and Arizona 37-58 in their other two road games. Mike Leach is 0-9 ATS after having won 8 or more of his last 10 games in all games he has coached. He has lost in this spot by 14.7 PPG on average. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take Utah.
|
11-10-17 |
BYU v. UNLV -2.5 |
Top |
31-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5
The Key: What more could possibly go wrong for BYU? The Cougars are 2-8 on the season and just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mangum to a torn Achilles last game. Their interest level is at an all-time low right now. UNLV, on the other hand, is 4-5 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl game. The Rebels have put themselves in this position by winning their last two. They won 26-16 at Fresno State as 21.5-point dogs, and beat Hawaii 31-23 as 8-point home favorites. Now they basically just have to win by a field goal to cover against BYU tonight. The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Take UNLV.
|
11-09-17 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals +7 |
Top |
22-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +7
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are looking at this game like a must-win. They trail the Rams by two games and the Seahawks by one game within their own division. They have to win this game if they want any hope of making the playoffs. They had a bye two weeks ago, which should help keep them fresh after beating the 49ers 20-10 last week and working on this short week. The Seahawks have a lot of injuries right now, most notably along the offensive line and to safety Earl Thomas, plus several players in the defensive front seven. Given their current state, the Seahawks can't be laying a touchdown on the road here. The Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less under Bruce Arians. Take Arizona.
|
11-08-17 |
Eastern Michigan -2 v. Central Michigan |
Top |
30-42 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2
The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season. They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points. They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week. And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come. The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons. They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan. Take Eastern Michigan.
|
11-07-17 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5 |
Top |
28-38 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5
The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season. They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less. They are clearly better than their record. They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale. Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game. So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good. Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Buffalo.
|
11-06-17 |
Lions v. Packers +3 |
Top |
30-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3
The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 24 of their last 25 home meetings with the Lions dating back to 1992. Now they are home dogs here Monday night. Granted, Aaron Rodgers isn't playing, but Brett Hundley should be much better than he was in his first career start against the Saints. He has had two weeks to get ready for the Lions and that will certainly help. It will also help that the Packers have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season now. Take Green Bay.
|
11-05-17 |
Cardinals -2 v. 49ers |
Top |
20-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago. They then had their bye last week. Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye. Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015. The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver. Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable. Pierre Garcon is out for the season. CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings. Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday. Take Arizona.
|
11-04-17 |
Penn State v. Michigan State +10 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10
The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here. They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week. And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here. Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference. I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset. The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country. Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take Michigan State.
|
11-03-17 |
UCLA v. Utah -7 |
Top |
17-48 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7
The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight. I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus. Rosen hasn't practiced all week. The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon. Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track. The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year. They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Take Utah.
|
11-02-17 |
Bills v. Jets +3.5 |
Top |
21-34 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5
The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind. The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting. But this has been a much better Jets team since then. The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3. So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late. And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss. Give me New York.
|
10-31-17 |
Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio |
Top |
28-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10
The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year. They brought back 17 starts from that team. So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now. Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love. But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders. A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st. The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one. The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Miami Ohio.
|
10-30-17 |
Broncos v. Chiefs -7 |
Top |
19-29 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7
The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season. Those were to the Bills and Chargers. Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year. And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line. They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare. Take Kansas City.
|
10-29-17 |
49ers +13 v. Eagles |
Top |
10-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season. It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well. It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now. But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive. Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take San Francisco.
|
10-28-17 |
Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Western Kentucky |
Top |
42-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5
The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now. And the markets haven't caught up to them yet. They still haven't caught up to them this week. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get. It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games. Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record. They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28. Take Florida Atlantic.
|
10-26-17 |
Dolphins +3 v. Ravens |
Top |
0-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Dolphins/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins +3
The Key: The Miami Dolphins are the better team here over the Baltimore Ravens. The Dolphins have managed a 4-2 record despite getting nothing out of their offense this season. Well, that was until the 4th quarter last week when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and led the Dolphins to 17 points in the final period to beat the Jets 31-28. Now Moore gets the nod again, and the offense will open up with him at the helm. The Dolphins already have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they'll be up against one of the worst offenses in the Ravens. The cluster injuries for the Ravens right now just aren't going to allow them to be competitive moving forward. Take Miami.
|
10-23-17 |
Redskins v. Eagles -5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -5
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC at 5-1 right now. They have a front seven defensively that is one of the best in the NFL, and their offense has really taken off this year with Carson Wentz. I think Wentz has a big game against a Redskins defense that will be missing Josh Norman and Jonathan Allen, and possibly another corner in Breeland. The Eagles beat the Redskins already 30-17 on the road and outgained them 356 to 254 in that game. Now they are only laying 5 at home in the rematch. I think they win by a TD or more with ease. Take Philadelphia.
|
10-22-17 |
Bengals v. Steelers OVER 40.5 |
Top |
14-29 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* AFC Total of the Year on Bengals/Steelers OVER 40.5
The Key: This simply come down to value. The over/unders on the two meetings between these teams last season were 45.5 and 48 points. And we haven't seen a total lower than 44.5 in a Bengals vs. Steelers game in any of the last 8 meetings. This total of 40.5 is simply too low. The Bengals have been improving offensively since making the coordinator change, and the Steelers aren't going to be held back offensively like they have up to this point. They simply have too much talent on offense. Cincinnati is on a 48-28 OVER run vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game. Pittsburgh is on a 28-14 OVER run in home games vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game. Take the OVER.
|
10-21-17 |
Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 |
Top |
34-27 |
Loss |
-120 |
24 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5
The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week. They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23). But this team has been a great bet at home through the years. LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders. Take Louisiana Tech.
|
10-19-17 |
Chiefs v. Raiders +3 |
Top |
30-31 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3
The Key: The Oakland Raiders' season is on the line tonight. They have dropped 4 straight to fall to 2-4 on the season. They cannot afford to drop to 2-5 with another loss here or they'll be done. They Chiefs are vulnerable right now as this is a tough scheduling spot. They played on Monday night two weeks ago, and now have to play on Thursday night. That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is as tough a spot as it gets in the NFL. The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all 6 games this year. Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch from the Raiders here, which will be the key to victory for them. Take Oakland.
|
10-16-17 |
Colts v. Titans -6.5 |
Top |
22-36 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
7* Colts/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6.5
The Key: The Tennessee Titans are going to be hungry tonight following two straight losses. But an asterisk has to get put on those losses because Marcus Mariota got hurt against the Texans two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Miami last week. Now Mariota makes his return and will lead the Titans to a blowout victory over the hapless Colts. The only two wins for the Colts this season came at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns and the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers by a combined 6 points. In their 2 road games this year, the Colts lost 9-46 to the Rams and 18-46 to the Seahawks. Adding to the Titans' hunger here is the fact that they have lost 11 straight meetings with the Colts, but most of those were with Andrew Luck at QB. Take Tennessee.
|
10-15-17 |
Bucs -1.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
33-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5
The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season. The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won. They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward. Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers. The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright. Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall. Take Tampa Bay.
|
10-15-17 |
Akron +13 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
14-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13
The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo. I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team. This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State. But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State. I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect. The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Akron.
|
10-13-17 |
Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 57 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Clemson/Syracuse ACC Total of the Month on OVER 57
The Key: Look for a shootout in this ACC showdown between Clemson and Syracuse tonight. Dino Babers has brought his up-tempo game to Syracuse and they're having some success with it. They are scoring 32 points per game and averaging 467 yards per game this season. And they've played some great teams in LSU and NC State. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, so a Clemson offense that is averaging 35 points and 471 yards per game should have its way. The Tigers hung 54 points on the Orange last year. But the Orange lost starting QB Eric Dungey in the first quarter of that game. Dungey is back healthy this season and playing very well. Clemson is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 games as a road favorite of 14.5 or more. Take the OVER.
|
10-12-17 |
Eagles v. Panthers -3 |
Top |
28-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense. Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out. You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has. Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not. He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him. I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions. Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson. Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions. Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Carolina.
|
10-09-17 |
Vikings v. Bears +4 |
Top |
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4
The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings. They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers. The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season. The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday. Take Chicago.
|
10-08-17 |
Chiefs v. Texans +1 |
Top |
42-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1
The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans. They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win. The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans. Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers. Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs. It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins. Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game. The spot favors the Texans here. Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games. Take Houston.
|
10-07-17 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 |
Top |
27-19 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27
The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3. It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week. The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener. And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years. The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road. Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one. And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season. Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992. Take Texas A&M.
|
10-06-17 |
Boise State v. BYU +9 |
Top |
24-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9
The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start. They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week. They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken. Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far. They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State. The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take BYU.
|
10-05-17 |
Louisville v. NC State +4.5 |
Top |
25-39 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* Louisville/NC State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on NC State +4.5
The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson. He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury. That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front. Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season. Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season. It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week. They didn't even show up. They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge. Take NC State.
|
10-02-17 |
Redskins +7 v. Chiefs |
Top |
20-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7
The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically. They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season. Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game. The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start. But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game. They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest. Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games. Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. Take Washington.
|
10-01-17 |
49ers +7 v. Cardinals |
Top |
15-18 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7
The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games. They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday. And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them. Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall. San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona. Take San Francisco.
|
09-30-17 |
Nevada v. Fresno State -9 |
Top |
21-41 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9
The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season. They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks. So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener. Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks. The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno. Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense. Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Fresno State.
|
09-29-17 |
Miami-FL v. Duke +7 |
Top |
31-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* Miami/Duke ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke +7
The Key: Duke has been grossly underrated to start the season. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, winning all four games by double-digits over NC Central (60-7), Northwestern (41-17), Baylor (34-20) and UNC (27-17). I think they continue being underrated here as 7-point home dogs to Miami. The Blue Devils have played the Hurricanes tough at home, not losing once by more than 7 points in their last 3 home meetings. Take Duke.
|
09-28-17 |
Bears v. Packers -7 |
Top |
14-35 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Bears/Packers NFC North Game of the Month on Green Bay -7
The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Chicago Bears. They have also gone 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. They won 26-10 at home over the Bears last year. The QB edge for the Packers here is worth at least 7 points. If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get up 7 or more, the Bears won't be able to come back because Matt Glennon has been terrible, and he has the worst set of receivers in the NFL. The Bears can run the ball, but that's not going to work if they get behind. I think the Packers are by far the safer side here. Hanging with the Steelers and Packers in back-to-back games is just too much to ask for Chicago. Take Green Bay.
|
09-25-17 |
Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 |
Top |
28-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Cowboys/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +3.5
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have gone on the road the first two weeks and are 1-1. There's no shame in that. Now it's their home opener on the Monday night stage, and the Cardinals are primed for their best performance of the season. Dallas has a ton of injuries in the secondary, and the Cardinals' strength is their passing attack, so Carson Palmer is primed for a big game here. Trevor Siemian lit up Dallas' secondary last week, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. The Cowboys lost that game 17-42. The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL after finishing #2 in total defense last year. They will be able to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot here Monday. Dogs are 12-3 ATS so far in Week 3, and I think this is another live home dog here tonight. Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as the coach of Arizona. Arians is 7-0 ATS against NFC East teams as the coach of the Cardinals. Take Arizona.
|
09-24-17 |
Texans +14 v. Patriots |
Top |
33-36 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* AFC Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14
The Key: The New England Patriots have too many injuries right now to be favored by 14 over the Houston Texans. They have a handful of skill players on offense who are banged up, and the injuries on defense have led to the Patriots giving up 31 points, 483 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play. Their defense was terrible in the preaseson too. I think Deshaun Watson can make enough plays to keep this game close, while the Texans' defense remains one of the elite units in the league. Plus Watson gets some key weapons back this week in TE Ryan Griffin and WR Bruce Ellington. Also CB Jonathan Joseph is expected to return from injury. Take Houston.
|
09-23-17 |
Arkansas +3 v. Texas A&M |
Top |
43-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* Arkansas/Texas A&M SEC West Game of the Year on Arkansas +3
The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a bye week. So they've had two full weeks to get ready for Texas A&M. And boy, do they ever want revenge on the Aggies. They have lost 5 straight meetings with Texas A&M over the last 5 seasons, including two of the last three in overtime. The Aggies are clearly down this season and vulnerable, so this is their chance to have their revenge. They lost at UCLA in the opener, only beat Nicholls State 24-14 as 37.5-point favorites, and actually trailed UL Lafayette 21-14 at halftime last week as 23.5-point favorites. Arkansas did lose to TCU, but the Horned Frogs are one of the better teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss. The Aggies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take Arkansas
|
09-21-17 |
Rams v. 49ers +3 |
Top |
41-39 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3
The Key: One of the biggest advantages in professional sports is home teams on Thursday night games. The short week for road teams is so tough because they have to travel and have almost zero time to prepare. I think the 49ers were impressive last week in their 12-9 road loss to the Seahawks as 14-point dogs. They have been able to get the running game going behind Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this season. The Rams gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Redskins last week. The 49ers have won 3 straight meetings with the Rams and are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. They were home dogs to the Rams last season, and won 28-0. Take San Francisco.
|
09-18-17 |
Lions v. Giants UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* Lions/Giants NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42.5
The Key: The New York Giants have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They held the Cowboys to just 19 points on the road last week despite their defense being on the field most the game. That's because their offense was awful, managing just a field goal in the 19-3 loss. They didn't have Odell Beckham in that game, and Beckham is going to be a game-time decision this week, so even if he plays he won't be 100%. The Giants will have to ride their defense again here. They hosted the Lions last year and won 17-6 for 23 combined points. I think we see a similar output here. The Lions scored 35 points last week, but they were gifted many of those points thanks to 4 turnovers by the Cardinals. Detroit is 7-0 UNDER in its last 7 games off a win. The UNDER is 20-7 in Lions last 27 road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Giants last 10 games overall, including 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Take the UNDER.
|
09-17-17 |
Cowboys -2.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
17-42 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* Cowboys/Broncos Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5
The Key: The Dallas Cowboys went 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in meaningful road games last season where they played all of their starters. They dominated on the road, beating the likes of the Packers and Steelers along the way. The thing about the Cowboys is that their style of play travels well. Teams that can run the football can win on the road. And the Cowboys are probably the best in the league in that aspect. Plus, Dak Prescott doesn't make critical mistakes and takes care of the football. And the Cowboys should be able to run on a Broncos defense that ranked 28th in the NFL against the run last season. Jason Garrett is 15-5 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Cowboys. Take Dallas.
|
09-16-17 |
Texas +16 v. USC |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* Texas/USC Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +16
The Key: Tom Herman has been an underdog 11 times in his career as a coordinator for Ohio State and as a head coach at Houston. His teams have gone a PERFECT 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in those 11 games. The Longhorns are flying under the radar now after getting upset by Maryland in the opener. They got right with a 56-0 win over San Jose State last week. Look for USC to have a bit of an emotional letdown here after their huge win over USC last week. Take Texas.
|
09-14-17 |
Texans v. Bengals OVER 38 |
Top |
13-9 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
7* Texans/Bengals AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 38
The Key: This 38-point total will be one of the lowest you will see in the NFL this season. I think there is value with the OVER because of it. I like the fact that the Texans will be going with Deshaun Watson tonight as his mobility will come in handy. The Bengals are missing their best player on D in Vontaze Burfict. The Bengals have a lot more talent on offense than they showed against a great Ravens defense last week. Both offenses will bounce back after subpar Week 1 performances, which is keeping this total lower than it should be. Bets on the OVER on road teams against the total (Houston) off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, in the first half of the season are 30-6 over the last 10 seasons. Take the OVER.
|
09-11-17 |
Chargers +3 v. Broncos |
Top |
21-24 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Chargers/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3
The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers should be one of the more improved teams in the NFL this season. They had a plethora of injuries last season that held them back during their 5-11 season. But they lost 9 games by 8 points or less, so they had their chances in most games. Philip Rivers has some healthy weapons in Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen entering 2017. They are far and away the better offensive team in this matchup, and their defense isn't far off from the Broncos. The Broncos even signed Brock Osweiler this offseason, which just goes to show how rough their QB situation really is. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games. Los Angeles is 8-2-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Denver. Take Los Angeles.
|
09-10-17 |
Ravens +3 v. Bengals |
Top |
20-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* AFC North Game of the Month on Baltimore Ravens +3
The Key: The Baltimore Ravens will have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. That was on display in the preseason as they held their 4 opponents to a total of 32 points, or an average of 8.0 points per game. The Bengals will be missing 2 starters on defense in Adam Jones and Vontaze Burfict, which are 2 of their best players. The Ravens are underrated right now because Joe Flacco missed the preseason. But he's a veteran who doesn't need to practice time to come in and flourish. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Baltimore.
|
09-09-17 |
Stanford +5.5 v. USC |
Top |
24-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 25 m |
Show
|
7* Stanford/USC Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford +5.5
The Key: The Stanford Cardinal simply own the USC Trojans. They have gone 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points. That's important when you consider this spread is 5.5. David Shaw is not only 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games as an underdog, but also 8-2 SU in those games. USC did not look good against Western Michigan in the opener in a 49-31 win as they pulled away in the 4th quarter. Stanford couldn't have looked better in its 62-7 win over Rice. Plus the Cardinal have had 2 weeks off since that game to get ready for USC. The Trojans allowed a ridiculous 263 rushing yards to Western Michigan. The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to USC. Take Stanford.
|
09-04-17 |
Tennessee -3 v. Georgia Tech |
Top |
42-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
74 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* GA Tech/Tennessee ACC vs SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3
The Key: Tennessee has a big edge in talent over Georgia Tech. Butch Jones is a master recruiter and he has finally put the Vols back on the map. They were the best team in the SEC East last season as they beat Florida, but played a brutal schedule and suffered a couple of upsets in letdown games. Georgia Tech lost its best triple-option QB maybe ever in Justin Thomas to graduation. That offense won't click as well without him. The Vols are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. They have dominated the bowl games under Jones, and they will make easy work of this middle of the road ACC team here Monday night. Take Tennessee.
|
09-02-17 |
Ball State v. Illinois -6.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Illinois -6.5
The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini were in a clear rebuilding year last season under Lovie Smith. They went just 3-9 and now are getting no attention heading into 2017. These are the teams I like to back. Smith will be more successful in year two. The Fighting Illini open as only 6.5-point favorites over a middle-of-the-pack MAC team. The Illini clearly have more talent, and I look for that to show on the field here Saturday. This defense returns 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year and will be better. The offense should hold its own, especially on the ground with both Kendrick Foster (5.7/carry) and Reggie Corbin (6.1/carry) back to lead the way. Leading receiver Malik Turner is back, as is Mike Dudeck, who has over 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman but missed last season with a torn ACL. Ball State only has 4 starters back on defense after giving up 30.1 points and 470 yards per game last season. The Illini should have plenty of success on the ground and through the air against their soft D. They'll easily win by a TD or more. Take Illinois.
|
08-31-17 |
New Mexico State v. Arizona State -22 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* NMSU/ASU Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -22
The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are flying under the radar heading into 2017. They had won 10 games in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014, but slipped to 6-7 in 2015 and 5-7 in 2016. They opened 5-1 last year but lost their final 6 games. But this is a team that returns 13 starters after having just 10 back last year. The offense will be one of the best in the Pac-12, and the defense cannot be as bad as it was a year ago. Following those 6 straight losses to close out last season, the Sun Devils have been hungry all offseason, and they're prepared to take out their frustration on lowly New Mexico State tonight. The Aggies went 3-9 last season. When they stepped up in competition they did not fare well. They lost 42-62 at Kentucky, 6-52 at Troy, 23-55 at Idaho, 10-52 at Texas A&M and 7-37 to Appalachian State. They have a lot back but this team is simply outclassed here. Take Arizona State.
|
08-26-17 |
Hawaii v. UMass -3 |
Top |
38-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Hawaii/UMass NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UMass -3
The Key: Last year UMass had just 9 returning starters and went from playing an easy MAC schedule to a much tougher Independent schedule. They went just 2-10, but were only outgained by 97 yards per game. They are a much more veteran squad this year with 15 returning starters and the schedule gets easier. The Minutemen played Hawaii in the regular season finale last year. The Warriors needed a win to make a bowl, so they had a lot more to play for. But UMass gave them everything they wanted at Hawaii and only lost 40-46. Now they get their shot at revenge right away in 2017, this time at home. Amazingly, Hawaii is 1-23 in true road games over on the mainland over the past 4 seasons. The Warriors are getting too much love here from oddsmakers. Take UMass.
|
02-05-17 |
Patriots -3 v. Falcons |
Top |
34-28 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* ATL/NE Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -3
The Key: The Patriots have been on a mission all season to take out their frustration on the NFL pertaining from Deflategate that led to Tom Brady's 4-game suspension. All they've gone is taken out their frustration on opponents to the tune of a 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS record on the season. Somehow they have been undervalued all season, and they continue to be in the Super Bowl as only 3-point favorites over the Falcons. The Falcons haven't seen a defense as good as the Patriots, which leads the league in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game. Both offenses are elite, but the difference in this game is going to be the Patriots' ability to get stops. The Falcons give up 24.8 points and 367 yards per game on the season. Tom Brady has only thrown two interceptions all season, and the team that has won the turnover battle has gone 37-4 in the Super Bowl. The Patriots winning the turnover battle and having the better defense is the difference Sunday. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take New England.
|
01-22-17 |
Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51 |
Top |
17-36 |
Loss |
-110 |
52 h 49 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Steelers/Patriots UNDER 51
The Key: Both of these defenses are playing tremendous football down the stretch. The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 15.6 points per game on the season. They are allowing only 12.9 points per game in their last 8 contests. The Steelers are giving up only 16.6 points per game in their last 9 games, which is the biggest reason why they have won 9 straight. And the Steelers have had their struggles in the red zone, as evidenced by their 6 field goals against the Chiefs without a TD last week. The Patriots are the definition of a bend but don't break defense, and it will be hard for the Steelers to punch it in the end zone again this week. The UNDER is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 road games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 conference championship games. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Steelers last 5 playoff games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 road games off a road win. Take the UNDER.
|
01-15-17 |
Packers v. Cowboys -4 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-120 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* GB/DAL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas Cowboys -4
The Key: The Dallas Cowboys pummeled the Green Bay Packers 30-16 on the road in their first meeting this season. I see Green Bay having the same issues in the rematch, especially defensively. The Cowboys went for 424 total yards and 191 rushing, absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually proves victorious, and that will be the formula for the Cowboys again just as it has been all season. And the Packers have several key injuries at receiver and in their secondary. The Cowboys are very healthy coming into this game off their bye. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Dallas. Take Dallas.
|
01-14-17 |
Seahawks v. Falcons -4.5 |
Top |
20-36 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* SEA/ATL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -4.5
The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have the best statistics in the NFL this season. They outgain their opponents 6.7 to 5.6 yards per play on the year, which is the best differential in the league. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first meeting against the Seahawks in Seattle, a 24-26 loss. But I think Ryan and company get their revenge at home this time around. The Seahawks have only won 3 road games all season while scoring just 16 points per game away from home. Take Atlanta.
|
01-09-17 |
Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
56 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* Alabama/Clemson National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +6.5
The Key: The Clemson defense just shut out a very good Ohio State offense. I think the Tigers have the front seven that can make life very difficult for Jalen Hurts and company. The Crimson Tide basically did nothing outside of a 68-yard run by Bo Scarbrough against Washington last week in which he broke like 10 tackles. The offense only accounted for 17 points. Hurts only threw for 57 yards in the win. Clemson put up 550 yards on Alabama's defense along with 40 points last year. Deshaun Watson is rolling right now and ready to cap off his Clemson career with a National Title. Dabo Swinney certainly knows how to coach in big games, winning 5 of his last 6 bowl games while going 6-0 ATS despite being an underdog in all 6 contests. The lone loss was that 5-point setback against Alabama last year. I don't think Alabama can win by a TD or more, and I actually think Clemson wins this game outright, so a play on the money line would be a good bet as well. Take Clemson.
|
01-07-17 |
Lions v. Seahawks -8 |
Top |
6-26 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* Lions/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -8
The Key: Matthew Stafford is 1-24 in his career on the road against a team that finished the season with a winning record. He simply has to do too much for the Lions, who are below-average at basically every other position on the field, especially defensively. They have allowed 73 points and over 800 yards of total offense in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Cowboys. The Lions are 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and 9-2 against everyone else. They have trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of 16 games this year. I look for a big effort from the Seahawks here, who are 9-0 in their last 9 playoff home games. They are 7-1 at home this season. Anything short of a double-digit victory for the home side would be a shocker. Take Seattle.
|
01-02-17 |
USC -7 v. Penn State |
Top |
52-49 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -7
The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game playing as well as anyone in the country. They have won 8 straight with 7 of those victories coming by at least 13 points. They have outgained 9 straight opponents, Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the land, and the defense has really stepped up. Penn State has overachieved this season. It was a good story, but this team doesn't have the horses to matchup with an athletic, talented team like USC. And the Big Ten is clearly overrated as we just saw their top two teams in Ohio State and Michigan get beat 31-0 by Clemson and by Florida State, respectively. And I don't believe Penn State is as good as either Ohio State or Michigan, and USC is every bit as good if not better than Clemson and Florida State. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Take USC.
|
01-01-17 |
Raiders +2 v. Broncos |
Top |
6-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* AFC West Game of the Month on Oakland Raiders +2
The Key: The Oakland Raiders have a lot to play for this week. They need to win to clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. They also have an outside shot at getting the No. 1 seed if they win, but that would require a Patriots loss. Either way, they want this victory. Few backup quarterbacks can step into a situation and be as successful as Matt McGloin is going to be for the Raiders. That's because he has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best duo at receiver in the league in Cooper and Crabtree, and plenty of help from the running game. He has started in this league before and will be up to the challenge. While the Raiders want this game badly, the Broncos could care less. They were just eliminated from the playoffs last week with their ugly 33-10 loss to the Chiefs. That came a week after another ugly 16-3 home loss to the Patriots. They won their Super Bowl last year, and the offseason can't get here soon enough for these players. The Broncos are going to be sitting some key starters on defense due to injury in S T.J. Ward, DE Derek Wolfe, LB Demarcus Ware and LB Brandon Marshall. That's only going to make McGloin's job even easier. The Raiders rushed for 218 yards in their 30-20 win over the Broncos earlier this season. They should find plenty of success on the ground against a Denver defense that gives up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season. Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Oakland.
|
12-31-16 |
Washington +14.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Washington/Alabama Playoff *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +14.5
The Key: Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches in the country that nobody talks about. He has been a great bet in the underdogs role. Petersen is 6-0 ATS as a dog with two or more weeks to get ready for an opponent. He will give the Huskies their best chance to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Huskies rank in the Top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are the best team that the Crimson Tide will have played. This is too many points in a game that I think goes right down to the wire. Take Washington.
|
12-30-16 |
South Alabama +14 v. Air Force |
Top |
21-45 |
Loss |
-103 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* Friday NCAAF Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +14
The Key: The Sun Belt has shown extremely well in these bowl games. They are 4-1 as a conference. Appalachian State beat Toledo as underdogs, Arkansas State topped UCF 31-13 as dogs, Idaho won 61-50 over Colorado as 15-point dogs and Troy beat Ohio 28-23 and covered as 4.5-point favorites. The only loss was LA-Lafayette as 6.5-point dogs in a 7-point loss to Southern Miss. I think South Alabama is getting way too many points here against Air Force. The Jaguars have pulled some huge upsets already this season. They beat Mississippi State 21-20 as 28-point road dogs, and they also upset San Diego State 42-24 as 19.5-point home dogs. They are fully capable of beating Air Force here, let alone staying within two touchdowns. Air Force is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last 2 seasons. I think the extra time to prepare will have the Jaguars ready for the Falcons' triple-option. Take South Alabama.
|
12-28-16 |
Indiana v. Utah -6 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Indiana/Utah Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -6
The Key: The Utah Utes have been a great bowl bet for years. They have gone 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games overall. They are 9-1 under Kyle Whittingham alone. The Utes have beat up on the Big Ten as well, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups with that conference. Indiana barely made a bowl game at 6-6 after beating Purdue 26-24 in the season finale despite being 21-point favorites. The Hoosiers lost their head coach in Kevin Wilson, and there is clearly some distractions around the program because of it. Utah went 8-4 this season with its 4 losses coming by a total of 19 points. The Utes were one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this year. Take Utah.
|
12-27-16 |
Baylor +7.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
31-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Baylor/Boise Cactus Bowl *BAILOUT* on Baylor +7.5
The Key: We are getting extra points here with Baylor because they have lost 6 straight games coming into the bowl season. There were getting extra points in their finale against West Virginia as well, covering as 17-point dogs in an impressive 3-point road loss. Boise State is once again laying too many points as it has been all season. The Broncos are just 3-9 ATS in their 12 lined games this year. The Bears will be the more talented team on the field in the Cactus Bowl. They boast the nation's No. 5 ranked offense at 543 yards per game. They can run the football as well as almost anyone, and Boise State allows 180 rushing yards per game despite playing such a soft schedule. Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.8 or more yards per carry. Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. Take Baylor.
|
12-26-16 |
Maryland v. Boston College +2 |
Top |
30-36 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* Maryland/BC Quick Lane Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston College +2
The Key: Boston College pulled the 17-14 upset at Wake Forest to punch its ticket to the postseason in the season finale. The Eagles are very excited to be here after winning their final 2 games. Their offense isn't great but was improved this year, and they had the 12th-ranked defense in the country according to our rankings. Maryland doesn't do any one thing well and was a bad team this year. Of the Terrapins' six wins, four have been against teams outside the Top 100, and hteir best win by far was against a 3-9 Michigan State team. The Terrapins have no passing game and can only run the football on offense. Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Eagles, who give up just 107 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. The Terrapins give up 218 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. Maryland is 0-6 ATS off a conference win over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Boston College.
|
12-25-16 |
Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
10-33 |
Loss |
-115 |
43 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* DEN/KC AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +3.5
The Key: The Chiefs are nowhere near as good as their 10-4 record. They have been outgained by an average of 88 yards per game in their last 7 contests. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential this season. They have been winning with smoke and mirrors, but they have lost two of their recent home games to the Titans and Buccaneers. The Chiefs are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread. Denver clearly should have won the first meeting this season as it outgained KC by 191 yards. Now the Broncos will have their revenge and keep their season alive in the rematch on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, which hasn't been as friendly to the Chiefs as most believe. Take Denver.
|
12-24-16 |
Redskins -3 v. Bears |
Top |
41-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Redskins -3
The Key: I always look to back teams off a bad loss and fade teams off an emotional game. In this case, we have the perfect situation. The Redskins are coming off a bad home loss to the Panthers in which they lost by 11 as 7-point favorites. Now everyone is writing them off, but we've seen them bounce back before. They won four straight following their 0-2 start, and they have only lost two games in a row twice all season. Those were to the Steelers/Cowboys and Cowboys/Cardinals, so it's understandable. They aren't going to lose to the lowly 3-11 Bears this week as the Redskins need to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs. The Bears will be deflated following back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Lions (by 3) and Packers (by 3). They fought back from a 17-point deficit to tie it against the Packers last week, only to lose on a last-second field goal. I don't think these players will be able to get back up off the mat from that crushing defeat against their biggest rivals. I fully expect a no-show from the Bears here. Washington is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season. The Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Washington is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last 6 meetings with Chicago. The Redskins are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Chicago. Take Washington.
|
12-23-16 |
Eastern Michigan +6 v. Old Dominion |
Top |
20-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +6
The Key: It's safe to say that the Eastern Michigan Eagles are happy to be going bowling. After all, they haven't been to a bowl game in 29 years. The Eagles haven't been handed anything this year. They've earned it with a pair of wins over conference championship participants in Ohio (MAC) and Wyoming (Mountain West). The Eagles are led by three-time MAC Offensive Player of the Week Brogan Roback, who guided an offense that set school records for total offense (5,447), passing offense (3,549) and total points (396). The offensive line has allowed the 12th-fewest sacks in the national and the second-fewest tackles for loss. There is another motivational angle that favors the Eagles. They want revenge from a 38-34 loss to Old Dominion last season, and they are far and away better than they were last season. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Eastern Michigan.
|
12-19-16 |
Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50 |
Top |
26-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* Panthers/Redskins NFC *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 50
The Key: I don't expect much defense to be played in this contest between the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers tonight. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Panthers are giving up 25.9 points per game overall and 32.5 points per game on the road. The Redskins are allowing 24.4 points per game overall and 24.8 points per game at home. But these are more than capable offenses as the Redskins are averaging 27.5 points per game at home and the Panthers are scoring 23.9 points per game overall. There are key injuries on both defenses as the Redskins are going to be without LB Will Compton and S Su'a Cravens, while the Redskins are without DE Charles Johnson and could be without LB Luke Kuechly again. The OVER is 8-0 in Redskins last 8 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games. The OVER is 13-3 in Panthers last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER.
|
12-18-16 |
Lions v. Giants -4 |
Top |
6-17 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -4
The Key: Matthew Stafford has a bum finger on his throwing hand that is going to limit what he's able to do against the Giants this week. It's not going to help having such cold weather in the Meadowlands, either. Stafford threw two interceptions against the Bears after injuring his finger last week. He needs to be at full strength for the Lions to have any chance of moving the football on a Giants defense that only allows 18.8 points per game this year. I look for Stafford to struggle, and the Lions don't have a running game to bail him out. The Giants are 6-1 at home this season and will take care of business on their home turf Sunday. Stafford has exactly one career road win over a team that finished with a winning record. The Lions will get exposed for the frauds that they are this week. Take New York.
|
12-17-16 |
Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* UTSA/New Mexico NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Mexico -7.5
The Key: The New Mexico Lobos will be playing in their hometown bowl for a second consecutive season. After falling just short in a 37-45 loss to Arizona last year, they will be hungry to earn their first bowl win since 2007 Saturday. That's why I'm not concerned about any lack of motivation playing in this bowl game again. Bob Davie has done as good a coaching job as anyone in the country. He got them to their first bowl since 2007 last year, and now the Lobos have a chance to win 9 games. Davie has this Lobos' offense hitting on all cylinders with 37.8 points per game and a FBS-best 361 rushing yards per game. The Lobos have a big-play offense with two running backs in Teriyon Gipson (1,209 yards, 12 TD) and Tyrone Owens (1,084 yards, 7 TD) who both average over 8.0 yards per carr on the season. UTSA's offense is only averaging 376 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lobos in this one. New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a home dog. The Lobos come in confident after throttling Wyoming 56-35 as 3-point dogs in their season finale. They put up 690 total yards on the Cowboys, who went on to play in the MWC Championship Game. The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Take New Mexico.
|
12-15-16 |
Rams +16 v. Seahawks |
Top |
3-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* LA/SEA NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Rams +16
The Key: Betting underdogs of this size in the NFL has been a very profitable move over the long haul. I especially like doing it when we're talking about division games. Even the worst teams get up for these division games, and I think the Rams will bring their best effort tonight. They have a new coach in John Fassel and a better outlook now with Jeff Fisher gone. The Rams have actually owned the Seahawks recently. They've won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright as underdogs. They won both meetings last year, and they won 9-3 at home this year over the Seahawks. The Rams have the defense that will keep them in this game for 4 quarters. I expect Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to make just enough plays to keep them competitive throughout. Take Los Angeles.
|
12-12-16 |
Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 45 |
Top |
23-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
72 h 6 m |
Show
|
7* BAL/NE AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45
The Key: The Baltimore Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 YPG) and 1st in rushing defense (73.8 YPG). They have what it takes to hold this New England offense in check, especially since they're without Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. New England's defense has been superb all season, giving up just 17.2 PPG overall and 16.3 PPG at home. The cold weather in New England will also play a role in keeping this game UNDER the number Monday night. The Ravens have failed to top 19 points in 6 games this season, which is half of them. The Ravens are 20-5 UNDER in their last 25 off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Ravens last 9 December games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games overall. Take the UNDER.
|
12-11-16 |
Broncos v. Titans -1 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -1
The Key: Just imagine how excited the Tennessee Titans were over their bye last week. They haven't been in contention this late in the season for a long time as they are in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead with the Colts and Texans. They have had a bounce to their step all week leading up to this game, and they are primed for a huge performance at home against the Denver Broncos. The Titans have been the best team in the AFC South in my opinion. They have actually scored 11 more offensive touchdowns than they've given up to opposing offenses this year. Marcus Mariota has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 8 consecutive games. That's impressive when you consider the Titans are known for running the football, as they rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 141.5 yards per game. They will be able to exploit the weakness of the Broncos' D, which is their 28th-ranked run defense allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The Broncos defense has to be fatigued after playing a combined 157 snaps over the past 2 weeks, which has to be some kind of NFL record. Their offense continues to put them in bad spots week after week. The Broncos have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think the rest and motivational edges here for the Titans should warrant them being more than 1-point favorites. They essentially just have to win the game to cover this week, and win they will do. Take Tennessee.
|
12-08-16 |
Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 46 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* AFC West Total of the Year on Raiders/Chiefs UNDER 46
The Key: I think points will be hard to come by in this game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders. First place is on the line in the AFC West, so the intensity will be high. And this is their 2nd meeting of the season, so the familiarity is clearly there. They combined for 36 points in their first meeting and a similar result can be expected in the rematch. They have combined for 44 or fewer points in 4 of the last 5 meetings as well. Temperatures are going to be around 10 degrees for kickoff with wind chills below zero. That's not exactly ideal scoring conditions, either. The Chiefs are 7-0 UNDER In home games vs. bad defensive teams who allow 24 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games off 4 or more consecutive overs. The UNDER is 36-15 in Chiefs last 51 home games. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas City. Take the UNDER.
|
12-05-16 |
Colts v. Jets +1.5 |
Top |
41-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* IND/NYJ AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1.5
The Key: The biggest reason for the Colts having a better record to this point than the Jets is that they have played an easier schedule. They have played the 6th-easiest slate of games this season, while the Jets have played the 5th-hardest. I think we see the Jets rise to the occasion here on Monday Night Football as this may be the last time we get max effort out of them because they are on such a big stage. The Colts have been outgained in 7 of their last 8 games overall and just aren't a very good team, mainly because of their defense that ranks 30th in the league. And that defense has some huge injuries right now as LB Robert Mathis, S Clayton Geathers and CB Patrick Robinson are all expected to miss this game. Not to mention CB Vontae Davis is questionable with a groin injury that has made him ineffective in recent weeks. The Jets' defensive line has a huge advantage against the Colts' offensive line, which has given up 36 sacks this season. The Jets have been a great late-season bet as they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 December games. Take New York.
|
12-04-16 |
Rams +13.5 v. Patriots |
Top |
10-26 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Dog of the Year on Los Angeles Rams +13.5
The Key: The fact that the Los Angeles Rams got blown out by the Saints on the road last week has added value to this line. The betting public wants nothing to do with them after that blowout. But they will show up Sunday to face a team the caliber of the Patriots. And the Patriots just aren't the normal Patriots right now. They are without Rob Gronkowski because of a season-ending injury, and Tom Brady missed a lot of practice this week with a knee injury. The Patriots were lucky to win 22-17 over the Jets last week, and they lost their last home game to the Seahawks. They aren't going to win this game by 2 touchdowns, so they shouldn't be 13.5-point favorites in their current state. After all, the Patriots are just 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games as double-digit favorites. And Jeff Fisher has been dominant in the underdog role. Fisher is 14-3 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams, and they're coming back to actually win these games 18.9 to 16.1 on average. Take Los Angeles.
|
12-03-16 |
Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma |
Top |
20-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* Okie State/Oklahoma Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +11
The Key: This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate, and thus I find value on the double-digit underdog in this rivalry game with the Big 12 title at stake. Oklahoma State is outscoring teams by 13.2 PPG this season and Oklahoma by 14.8 PPG. The Sooners can't be trusted to cover this big number because they have their worst defense in years. They allow 30.5 points, 443 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Two of the three meetings between these teams between 2012 and 2014 went to overtime, and the other was decided by 9 points. But the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 58-23 loss to the Sooners last year. That was closer than the score as the Sooners only outgained the Cowboys by 67 yards. The Cowboys have actually played their best on the road this season as they won 44-20 at Kansas, 43-37 at Kansas State and 31-6 at TCU. They were dogs in those latter two games. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Oklahoma State.
|
11-28-16 |
Packers v. Eagles OVER 47.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* GB/PHI ESPN National TV *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47.5
The Key: The Green Bay Packers still boast an explosive offense that has scored at least 24 points in 5 consecutive games. But their defense has been their downfall, giving up 30 or more points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games overall. I expect this trend to continue as we see a shootout in Philadelphia tonight. The Eagles have had no problem putting up points at home as they average 27 points per game at home this season. Green Bay is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. The Packers are 7-0 OVER in road games after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games. Green Bay is 8-0 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 6-0 OVER vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play over the last 2 years. This is a combined 31-1 angle backing the OVER. Take the OVER.
|
11-27-16 |
Chargers -2.5 v. Texans |
Top |
21-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on San Diego Chargers -2.5
The Key: The Houston Texans are playing on a short week after returning from Mexico City and their Monday Night Football game against the Oakland Raiders. Now they'll be up against a San Diego Chargers team that is coming off their bye week and desperate for a win. Given this awful spot for the Texans and great one for the Chargers, I think the road team gets the job done today. The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Texans. Take San Diego.
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State -5 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-106 |
14 h 2 m |
Show
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7* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -5
The Key: This is a very cheap price for the Ohio State Buckeyes here. They have the home-field edge and a big edge at quarterback with J.T. Barrett over John O'Korn. The Buckeyes are beating teams by 42 points per game at home this season. We saw Michigan lose on the road at Iowa and struggle beating Michigan State away from home. We also saw O'Korn struggle against Indiana at home last week. Ohio State has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan and there hasn't been an upset in this series in 11 years. Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when favored by less than 10 points or an underdog in his last 8 games as a head coach. Take Ohio State.
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11-25-16 |
Northern Illinois -5 v. Kent State |
Top |
31-21 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
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7* NCAAF Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -5
The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies are playing very well here down the stretch at 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have found their QB of the future in Daniel Santacaterina, who led them back from 21-0 down to beat Eastern Illinois last week. He rushed for 91 yards in the second half alone after taking over for their injured starting QB. Kent State is down to its 3rd-string QB now after losing 7-42 at Bowling Green last week. That was an alarming loss and it's hard to tell what kind of effort you are going to get from the Golden Flashes this week. The Huskies are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings winning seven of those by at least 7 points. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Northern Illinois.
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11-24-16 |
Redskins +7 v. Cowboys |
Top |
26-31 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 55 m |
Show
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7* WAS/DAL NFC East Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7
The Key: The Washington Redskins will be out for revenge from their 23-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 2. That was the start of a 9-game winning streak both straight up and ATS for the Cowboys. They are getting way too much respect from the books now as the Redskins were 3-point favorites in that first game, and now they're 7-point dogs in the rematch, a whopping 10-point swing. The Redskins continue flying under the radar as they've gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Statistically these teams are very similar as the Redskins outgain teams by 48 yards per game and 0.4 per play while the Cowboys outgain teams by 65 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Dallas, so clearly the Cowboys don't have much of a home-field advantage in this series at all. Take Washington.
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11-22-16 |
Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 |
Top |
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
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7* CMU/EMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +1.5
The Key: Eastern Michigan is looking to get to its first bowl game since 1987. The Eagles are 6-5 this season, but they may need another victory to secure their spot in the postseason. And after blowing a 21-0 lead and losing to Northern Illinois last week, they will come back very hungry on Senior Night here against Central Michigan. The Chippewas are also 6-5, but with their win over Oklahoma State earlier this season, they're probably going to a bowl either way. They had lost 3 straight before winning 27-20 over Ohio last week, but Ohio pretty much gave that game away by committing four turnovers. CMU was held to just 286 total yards in that game and outgained by 71 yards. EMU is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Eastern Michigan.
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11-21-16 |
Texans v. Raiders OVER 45 |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
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7* HOU/OAK AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 45
The Key: The OVER is 7-2 in all Raiders games this season. Oakland has an elite offense that puts up 27.2 points and 401 yards per game, but a terrible defense that gives up 24.8 points and 398 yards per game. I look for a shootout in Mexico City tonight. The altitude will be a huge issue here as both of these teams will get fatigued in the second half. I expect the offenses to continue to roll in the second half, while the fatigue will hurt the defenses a lot more. You know the NFL wants to put on a show in Mexico City, so expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game. Oakland is 10-1 OVER off one or more ATS wins over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 8-1 OVER in road games vs. teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
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11-20-16 |
Cardinals +2.5 v. Vikings |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
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7* NFC Game of the Month on Arizona Cardinals +2.5
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals remain one of the best teams in the NFL. Just look at the numbers they have put up this season. They are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they average 382.0 yards per game on offense and only give up 295.2 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by 86.8 yards per game. They face a Minnesota Vikings team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games overall with no signs of turning it around soon due to an offense that ranks as the worst in the NFL, averaging just 302.3 yards per game. This is a mismatch on paper and it will be a mismatch on the field, too. Take Arizona.
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11-19-16 |
Stanford -10.5 v. California |
Top |
45-31 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 51 m |
Show
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7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Stanford -10.5
The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won three straight games by double-digits, including a 24-point win at Arizona and a 25-point win at Oregon. They should keep this streak going against the Cal Bears, who have lost three straight games by at least 21 points each while getting outscored by an average of 31.7 points per game. Their defense has given up 662 yards per game during this stretch. Stanford will have its way rushing the football in this game as the Golden Bears allow 283 yards per game on the ground, and frankly I don't know how they are going to ever stop Stanford from scoring. The Cardinal have owned this series with 6 straight victories over Cal and 5 of those coming by 13 points or more. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Take Stanford.
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11-18-16 |
UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
25-42 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
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7* UNLV/Boise NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +28.5
The Key: The UNLV Rebels just beat Wyoming in Triple Overtime last Saturday. That gives these teams a common opponent at Boise State actually lost to Wyoming 30-28. And UNLV gained 653 yards against Wyoming and outgained them by 168 yards. Boise State was actually outgained by 2 yards by Wyoming in that loss. UNLV averages 253 rushing yards per game this season and will find success on the ground against Boise State. After all, the Broncos have allowed 215 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games to Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii. The Broncos haven't won by more than 14 points at home this season, and they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games at home dating back to last season. Take UNLV.
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11-17-16 |
Saints v. Panthers -3 |
Top |
20-23 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
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7* NO/CAR Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina Panthers -3
The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight meetings with New Orleans by an average of 13 points per game before losing 38-41 to them on the road earlier this season. I think they get their revenge here Thursday night to hold on to slim hopes of making the playoffs. This is the make-or-break game for the Panthers, who blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs last week and lost despite dominating that game. Bets on favorites revenging a loss by 7 points or less while also coming off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Carolina.
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11-15-16 |
Ohio v. Central Michigan |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
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7* Ohio/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan PK
The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas need a win to get bowl eligible as they sit at 5-5 on the season. They will be motivated here at home. I question the motivation of the Ohio Bobcats, who can lose tonight and still win the MAC East with a home win over Akron next week. The Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point and are extremely overrated. Central Michigan went on the road and beat Oklahoma State. Ohio is coming off 3 straight ATS covers, while CMU is coming off 3 straight ATS losses. That has put the value squarely on the home team in this contest tonight. Take Central Michigan.
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