Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | 42-10 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7 The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game. And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won. I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night. UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team. UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog. UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts. Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted. South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take South Alabama. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +5.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5 The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1. Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season. Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th. The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest. They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once. They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week. There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense. He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018. He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL. Take Las Vegas. |
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09-20-20 | Lions +6.5 v. Packers | 21-42 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Lions/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5 The Key: The Detroit Lions just blew a 23-6 lead over the Chicago Bears in the 4th quarter. They are the kinds of close losses dating back to last season, and they don’t want to be known as the team that cannot finish this year. Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder Sunday against the Packers. And since the Lions have such a knack for losing close games, getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice price. The Packers are over-hyped after beating up on a young, banged-up Minnesota defense last week, winning 43-34. The Lions will offer a lot more resistance than the Vikings did on both sides of the ball. Detroit is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Green Bay with the 2 losses both coming last year by 1 and 3 points. They have revenge in mind in this first matchup of 2020. Take Detroit. |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles -105 | 37-19 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Rams/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia PK The Key: Philadelphia blew a 17-0 lead against Washington last week and was outscored 27-17 the rest the way. The offense stalled, and Carson Wentz had a poor game as he just didn’t have any time and was sacked 8 times. Injuries on the offensive line contributed to it. But the Eagles got good injury news this week as both G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson will play Sunday, plus they get RB Mile Sanders back after missing last week. Johnson means everything to the O-Line. The Eagles are 36-17 with Lane under Doug Pederson, but just 6-12 without him. The Rams played good enough to win over the Cowboys, who had all kinds of injuries hit their defense last week. The Rams won that game 20-17. Now they faced a pissed off Eagles team, and the challenge will be much tougher for them this week. I love the price getting the Eagles as a pick ‘em at home as I still think they are the better team than the Rams. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-20-20 | Jaguars +9 v. Titans | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 67 h 34 m | Show |
7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9 The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets. They are taking it personally. They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1. I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans. Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball. With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete. The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year. They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready. The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State -1 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1 The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season. The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons. But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL. So last year was a rebuilding season. Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back. Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year. They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense. They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver. NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason. The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday. The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups. Take NC State. |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5 The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State. They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense. They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year. But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Take Louisville. |
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09-19-20 | Syracuse +21.5 v. Pittsburgh | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5 The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week. Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC. Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread. And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period. Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016. They only won that game by 15 points. The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. Take Syracuse. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5 The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair. The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week. They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week. The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams. The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games. They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year. Take the OVER. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -6 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 101 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger. They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG. They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38). Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season. The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering. Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants. And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-13-20 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots | 11-21 | Loss | -121 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +7.5 The Key: The Miami Dolphins came on strong at the end of last season under Brian Flores. They even upset the New England Patriots in Week 17. And now the Dolphins have almost everyone back, plus brought in some talent on defense. They will go with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gives his team a chance to win every week. The Patriots are in a world of hurt replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton. But they are even worse off on defense with all of the players that have opted out. The Patriots can’t be favored by more than a TD here given their current state entering Week 1. Take Miami. |
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09-13-20 | Jets +7 v. Bills | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
6* Jets/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +7 The Key: There’s a lot of hype on the Buffalo Bills after making the playoffs last year. But they were 10-6 while the Jets were 7-9 and really not that far behind. And I don’t think there is 7 points separating these teams entering Week 1 of 2020, so I like the price we are getting with the Jets here. The Jets blew a big lead in Week 1 last year to the Bills and lost 16-17. But they got revenge in a 13-6 win in Week 17. And this game will likely be decided by a TD or less, just as the last 3 matchups have been. Take New York. |
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09-13-20 | Colts v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8 The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason. There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers. That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year. The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew. Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting. He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7 The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs. I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch. Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back. Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country. Kansas got in 0 spring practices. Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter. Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with. The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D. They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign. This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet. Take Coastal Carolina. |
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09-12-20 | Tulane v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11 The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back. They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback. They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30. Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year. Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year. He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs. Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win. Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year. This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already. Take South Alabama. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State -11 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11 The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it. They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen. They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury. They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth. I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers. Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed. There will be some regression on that side of the ball. Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year. They will shut down this Louisiana offense. The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall. They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here. The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams. Take Iowa State. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 53 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
6* Texans/Chiefs *Total* Annihilator on OVER 53 The Key: The Chiefs and Texans are 2 of the better offensive teams in the NFL this season, especially the Chiefs. And both have suspect defenses, especially the Texans. I think we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this Week 1 opener tonight to push this total OVER 53 points. The Texans gave up 25.3 PPG and 393 YPG last year. The Chiefs can score at will on them. We saw that in the playoffs when the Chiefs won 51-31 for 82 combined points with the Texans. Houston won the regular season matchup 31-24 for 55 combined points. This total is 53 is simply too low in today’s NFL and with these 2 teams. Take the OVER. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MTSU/Army NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army -3.5 The Key: Army went 11-2 in 2018 but plummeted to 5-8 in 2019. They weren’t nearly as bad as their record last year as they still outscored their opponents 28.3 to 23.0 on the season and outgained them 379 to 342 on average. They simply had bad luck in close games as they lost 6 games by single-digits. The Black Knights have 12 starters back this year which is more than they had each of the last 2 seasons. I especially like the defense with 7 starters back from a unit that gave up 23 PPG. The offense should be fine with Jabari Lewis at QB. He actually averaged 6.4 YPC last year compared to 5.1 for starter Hopkins. And he completed 16 of 20 passes for 80% completions, so he may even be better than Hopkins was. Middle Tennessee went 4-8 last year thanks to an awful defense that gave up 29.9 PPG and 459 YPG. They only have 5 starters back on D and will be terrible again. They gave up 194 RYPG and 4.9 YPC last year, which is bad news going up against this triple-option of Army. The Black Knights will be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this game. Take Army. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Thursday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +15 The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back. They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback. They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30. Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year. Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year. Southern Miss should be a pretty good team with 14 starters back from a squad that went 7-6 last year. But I don’t expect them to come close to winning this game by more than 2 touchdowns in the opener. Take South Alabama. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -103 | 76 h 7 m | Show |
7* 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +1.5 The Key: The San Francisco 49ers are the most compete team in the NFL this season and certainly deserve their spot in the Super Bowl. They are 15-3 on the year and those 3 losses all came on the final play of the game. And they battled through injuries all season and are now as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the year. They buried both the Vikings and Packers early with a 27-10 win over the Vikings and a 27-0 lead over the Packers. They are 4th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense this year. They are 2nd in total defense this year. They simply have no weaknesses. The Chiefs have plenty of weaknesses that the 49ers can exploit. Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t very good and won’t be able to handle the best D-Line in the NFL. That’s going to make Mahomes’ job a lot harder as he faces San Francisco’s #1 ranked pass defense. The Chiefs are weak defensively up the middle as they are 26th against the run and 28th in YPC (4.9) allowed. The 49ers are 2nd in rushing offense and just rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 on the Packers, who rank similar to the Chiefs in run D stats. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning reocrd. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs. Take San Francisco. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -7.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Packers/49ers NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -7.5 The Key: The 49ers got 3 defensive starters back last week and held the Vikings to just 10 points and 147 total yards. They have the best defense in the NFL and that was on display in the 1st meeting. They beat the Packers 37-8 and held them to 198 total yards including 81 passing. Green Bay has a terrible offensive line, especially up the middle where they will be overmatched by Armstead and Thomas. And then you have Bosa and Ford on the outside as arguably the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. Not even a QB the caliber of Aaron Rodgers can overcome this elite San Francisco defense. Take San Francisco. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -7 The Key: The Chiefs dominated the first meeting with the Titans but found a way to lose 32-35. That won’t happen again in the rematch, especially since it’s being played at Arrowhead Stadium. And now the Chiefs feel invincible after coming back from 24-0 down to win 51-31 over the Texans last week. The Chiefs outgained the Titans 530 to 371 in their first meeting. Those kinds of numbers would usually result in a double-digit blowout. The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall winning by 17 PPG. Take Kansas City. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU -5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football. And their defense has been lights out down the stretch. Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year. The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans. They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday. Take LSU. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
7* Seahawks/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -4 The Key: No write up Sunday. On vacation. |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Vikings/49ers OVER 44 The Key: No write up. On vacation. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH +14 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 26 m | Show |
7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years. They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016. And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio. They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit. And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami. Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall. Take Miami. |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
7* NFL Wild Card Total of the Year on Seahawks/Eagles UNDER 45 The Key: It’s hard to believe the books have set this total this high when you look at all the injuries to both offenses. The Seahawks had Gordon suspended, are missing at least their top 2 running backs and could be without 2 starting offensive linemen. Their offense has been broken in recent weeks because of it. They scored 12 on the Rams, 13 on the Cardinals and 21 on the 49ers in 3 of their last 4 games. The Eagles’ injury situation is worse. They are without Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and could be without Zach Ertz again this week. I think we see a similar game to the 17-9 final for 26 combined points that the Eagles and Seahawks just played earlier this season. I like that they’ve already played each other this year because that familiarity favors the defenses. The Eagles are 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last 10 seasons. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 years. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Eagles last 10 playoff home games and 16-5 UNDER int heir last 21 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the UNDER. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
7* Bills/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 The Key: We’re getting the Houston Texans pretty cheap here in a game they basically just have to win to cover at home. The Bills haven’t done well when they have stepped up in class. They are 1-4 against playoff teams this year with their only win coming against the Titans when Marcus Mariota was their quarterback. The Texans have gone 3-3 against playoff teams with wins over the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans. One of their losses was to the Titans when they rested their starters in Week 17. They should be fresh and ready to go, plus they get back JJ Watt and a few others from injury that makes them a stronger team going into the playoffs. Bets on teams when the line is +3 to -3 who are a good passing team at 6.7-7.3 YPA against an average passing team 5.9-6.7 YPA after gaining 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Houston. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee -3 v. Indiana | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana. The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season. The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better. So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams. The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers. The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama. Take Tennessee. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number. They have the talent edge. And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl. They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year. I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year. Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff. I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU. And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week. The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far. Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite. Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss. This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans. Take Georgia. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming -7 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season. Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG. I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams. Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL. Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury. They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG. Their only win was at home against South Alabama. Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record. Take Wyoming. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games. But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force. The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky. I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year. WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense. I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs. The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss. Take Western Michigan. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
6* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -3 The Key: The 49ers are an elite team and a Super Bowl contender, while the Seahawks are a pretender. The 49ers are +164 in point differential on the season while the Seahawks are only +12. It’s a minor miracle the Seahawks even have a chance to win the division. That chance will go by the wayside this week as the 49ers handle their business. They have a healthy George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders now, which they didn’t have in their 1st meeting with the Seahawks. And Seattle will be playing with a lot of different players than they did in that 1st meeting with the 49ers due to their plethora of injuries up and down their roster. I mean, they even had to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street they are so desperate. Take San Francisco. |
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants +4 The Key: The New York Giants are playing well here in their last 3 games and would like to knock the NFC East rival Eagles out of the playoffs. The Giants are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall. They won 36-20 at home over the Dolphins and 41-35 on the road at the Redskins. Daniel Jones was great as the Giants had 552 total yards on the Redskins last week. And now the Giants want to avenge their only loss here down the stretch, a 17-23 (OT) loss at Philadelphia. Now the Giants get the Eagles at home and are catching 4 points. It’s a depleted Eagles team that will be without Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and several others. Bets against favorites who are off an upset win as a home dog that win 51% to 60% of their games when playing a losing team are 26-5 ATS since 1983. Take New York. |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cincinnati Bengals +3 The Key: The Bengals want to avenge their 19-27 loss at Cincinnati earlier this month. The Browns have a lot more injuries since that meeting, and the Bengals are a lot healthier plus they have gone to Andy Dalton at QB. Plus the Bengals should have won that game, anyway. They had 451 yards in that game and outgained the Browns by 118 yards. The Browns haven’t shown much interest in finishing the season strong at all after losing by 14 at Arizona and by 16 at home to Baltimore. They were dominated in the stat department in both those games. Take Cincinnati. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 63.5 | Top | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 38 h 47 m | Show |
7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country. Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year. There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses. Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case. Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same. Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games. Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30. Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER. |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Iowa State/Notre Dame Bowl *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Camping World Bowl between Iowa State and Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish hold opponents to 10.3 PPG and 77 YPG less than their season averages this year. The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, holding foes to 5 PPG & 50 YPG less than their season averages. Notre Dame actually runs the ball more than they throw it, attempting 36 rushes per game. Iowa State runs it more than most Big 12 teams with 32 attempts per game. The UNDER is 21-10-2 in Iowa State’s last 33 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Iowa State’s last 7 bowl games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Notre Dame’s last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. The UNDER is 13-2 in Iowa State’s last 15 games on turf. The UNDER is 9-0 in Iowa State’s last 9 games after a game where they committed zero turnovers. Take the UNDER. |
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12-28-19 | Memphis v. Penn State -7 | 39-53 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Memphis/Penn State Bowl *CA$H COW* on Penn State -7 The Key: The Memphis Tigers had a great year in the AAC. But this is a big step up in class against Penn State, which will be the best opponent they have faced yet this year. And Memphis just lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 December games. Penn State’s defense gives up only 14.1 PPG and will have an answer for Memphis’ offense. It will be men amongst boys with their defensive line up against Memphis’ offensive line. Take Penn State. |
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12-27-19 | USC +2.5 v. Iowa | 24-49 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
6* USC/Iowa Bowl *CA$H COW* on USC +2.5 The Key: I’ll side with USC’s athletes and explosive offense over Iowa’s physicality and poor offense in the Holiday Bowl. USC is loaded at receiver, and senior WR Michael Pittman will play in this game. Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is completing 72% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. Slovis threw for over 400 yards in each of his final 3 games to close out the season with 12 touchdowns and only 1 pick. He faced 2 great defenses too in ASU and Cal. Iowa hasn’t faced an offense as good as USC all season. And I don’t think the Hawkeyes can keep up if they get behind. Iowa is averaging just 19 PPG in their final 8 games this year. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 Holiday Bowls. Clay Helton has retained his job and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell will stay, giving USC some continuity and some motivation to build for next year. Helton is 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more yards last game as the coach of USC. Take USC. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State. The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here. Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams. Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule. Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury. Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year. Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory. Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl. Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992. Take Michigan State. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh v. Eastern Michigan +13 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread. Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan. The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games. I’d argue EMU has the better offense. The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller. The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog. Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games. Take Eastern Michigan. |