Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-20-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals -128 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play ---Kansas City Royals -128--- The Royals had their 10-game winning streak snapped yesterday by the Tigers, but I don't see that one loss ruining their momentum. I look for Kansas City to bounce back right back with a win, as they send out their ace James Shields. The Royals are a dominant 11-4 in Shields 15 starts this season and he's got a solid 3.24 ERA and 1.230 WHIP at home. Key Trends/System - Kansas City is 16-5 in their last 21 home games when listed as a favorite to -100 to -150, 21-7 in Shields last 28 starts when listed as a favorite of -100 to -150 and a perfect 9-0 in his last 9 starts during the month of June. Add it up and that's a 49-12 (79%) system telling us to BET ON THE ROYALS -128! |
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06-19-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's -157 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play ---Oakland A's -157--- The A's are a big favorite at home for good reason, as they are the better team and have a clear advantage on the mound. Oakland will be sending out Scott Kazmir, who is 8-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.977 WHIP over 14 starts. What's amazing is Kazmir has been even stronger at home, where he's 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.808 WHIP over 6 starts. Boston will counter with Jake Peavy, who is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.443 WHIP overall and just 1-2 with an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP on the road. Key Trends - Boston is 1-6 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road underdog, 0-8 in his last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less and 1-5 in his last 6 against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 50-20 in their last 70 home games against a team with a losing road record, 38-17 in their last 55 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 10-0 in Kazmir's last 10 starts following a quality start last time out. System - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 361-146 (71%) against the money line since 1997! BET THE A'S! |
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06-18-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip MLB Over/Under AL Total of the Month ---Blue Jays/Yankees UNDER 9--- I'm expecting a pitcher's duel with Toronto's Mark Buehrle going up against the Yankees' CHase Whitley. Buehrle is 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.225 WHIP over 14 starts in 2014 and has been just as strong on the road with a 2.01 ERA and 1.013 WHIP over 7 starts. Whitley has a 2.41 ERA and 1.010 WHIP over his first 6 starts and was dominant in his lone start at Yankee Stadium, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits over 5 innings of work. What's impressive is the fact that Whitley has just 3 walks over 33 2/3 innings. Key Trends - UNDER is 39-14-1 in Toronto's last 54 games against a team with a winning record, 13-3 in Buehrle's last 16 starts as a road underdog, 6-1 in the Yankees last 7 as a home favorite and 20-7-3 in New York's last 30 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5. System - UNDER is 41-13 (76%) in games with a total of 9 to 9.5 where the home team has a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season. BET THE UNDER 9! |
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06-17-14 | New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Blue Chip Top Play ---Mets/Cardinals UNDER 7.5--- I'm expecting a very low-scoring affair tonight, as the Cardinals' Michael Wacha will be going up against the Mets' Jon Neise. Wacha is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.008 WHIP at home, while Niese has a 2.45 ERA and 1.066 WHIP over 6 road starts. Niese is also 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA over 6 career starts against the Cardinals and the UNDER is 4-0-1 in those 6 meetings. Key Trends/System - The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs, 5-0-1 in Neise's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less and 10-1-3 in Neise's last 14 starts on 4 days of rest. It's also 16-5 in the Cardinals last 22 home games against a left-handed starter, 8-1 in Wacha's last 9 starts during game 2 of a series and 8-1-2 in their last 11 games overall. Add it up and that's a 51-8 (86%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7.5! |
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06-14-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Boston Red Sox -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
5* AL Central Game of the Month ---Boston Red Sox -135--- I'm jumping all over the Red Sox at home on Saturday against the Indians. Cleveland has been awful on the road this season and I don't see them being able to keep it close with youngster T.J. House on the mound. House will be making his 5th start of the season and needless to say he's struggled. He comes in with a 5.49 ERA and 1.641 WHIP and an even worse 6.32 ERA and 1.724 WHIP on the road. House was able to limit Boston to just 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings at home on 6/3. Some might consider that a positive going into this matchup, but I believe it will work against him. The Red Sox will have a much better idea of what to expect the second time around and I look for them to put up a big number offensively. Boston's Jake Peavy hasn't been great in 2014, but he's shown some signs here of late and should have more than enough run-support to secure an easy win. Key Trends/System - Cleveland is 7-19 in their last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record and 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record and 6-2 in Peavy's last 8 starts when working on exactly 4 days of rest. Add it up and that's a 50-17 (75%) system telling us to BET THE RED SOX -135! |
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06-13-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip NL Game of the Month ---Milwaukee Brewers -125--- This is a great price to catch the Brewers at home against the Reds. I believe Milwaukee has a clear edge on the mound in this one, as they send out a red-hot Matt Garza against Homer Bailey and his road woes. The Brewers have won each of Garza's last 3 starts, in which he's posted an impressive 2.84 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 19 innings. Bailey has pitched well of late, but most of his success has come at home. The Reds are just 2-4 in his 6 road starts and he's got an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in those 6 outings. Key Trends/System - Milwaukee is 6-1 in Garza's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 games played on a Friday. Cincinnati is just 2-9 in Bailey's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Add it up and that's a 37-6 (80%) system telling us to BET THE BREWERS -125! |
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06-11-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* NL Blue Chip Over/Under Total of the Year ---Dodgers/Reds UNDER 7--- All signs point to a pitchers duel tonight in Cincinnati, as the Dodgers will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Reds Johnny Cueto. Ryu is 5-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.974 WHIP over 6 road starts in 2014, while Cueto comes in with a 1.87 ERA and 0.717 WHIP over 7 home starts. In Ryu's lone start against Cincinnati this season at home, he allowed just 3 runs on 3 hits over 7 1/3. In Cueto's only start at LA, he held the Dodgers to just 1 earned run on 4 hits over 6 1/3. Key Trends/System - UNDER is 9-2 in the Dodgers last 11 road games when listed as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is also 10-2 in Cueto's last 12 starts against an opponent who scored 5+ runs in their last contest, 6-1-1 in the Reds last 8 games after scoring 2 runs or less and 12-4-1 in Cueto's last 17 home starts against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 49-8 (86%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7! |
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06-08-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* Tigers/Red Sox MLB Game of the Month ---Detroit Tigers -129--- The Red Sox are back to their losing ways, having dropped 5 straight and I look for them to add another loss to their resume tonight against the Tigers. Detroit will be sending out Anibal Sanchez, who has been brilliant despite a mere 2-2 record. Sanchez has a 2.15 ERA and an impressive 0.894 WHIP on the season and comes in with a sensational 1.21 ERA and 0.493 WHIP over his last 3 starts. System - Home teams (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 159-85 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE TIGERS -129! |
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06-07-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play ---San Diego Padres -135--- This is a great price to back the Padres at home with their ace Andrew Cashner on the mound. Cashner comes in with a dominant 1.67 ERA and 1.083 WHIP over 5 home starts and has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. Washington counters with the inexperienced Blake Treinen, who will be making just the third start of his career at the big league level. Each of his first two starts have ended in losses for the Nationals and he really struggled with his command last time out, walking 5 in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I look for the Padres to provide Cashner with more than enough run-support to secure the win. System - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 76-37 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system telling us to BET THE PADRES -135! |
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06-06-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 125 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
5* MLB Blue Chip Run Line Game of the Month ---Texas Rangers -1.5 (+125)--- Great spot to play the run line on Texas, as they should have no problem winning at home with their ace Yu Darvish on the mound. Cleveland has been absolutely awful on the road, as they are just 9-19 in their last 28 games away from home. Indian's starter Trevor Bauer has pitched well since being added to the rotation, but was not sharp in his last road start. Bauer allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of work. System - Cleveland is 17-45 in their last 62 road games against an AL starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better and have lost these contest on average by 1.6 runs/game. That's a 73% system telling us to BET THE RANGERS -1.5 (+125) |
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06-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -112 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play ---St Louis Cardinals -112--- The Cardinals are coming off a big win yesterday, as they defeated the Royals 5-2 in 11 innings to snap a 3-game losing streak. I look for St Louis to carry over that momentum with another win on Thursday. The Cardinals have a clear edge on the mound with Michael Wacha going up against the struggling Yordano Ventura. Wacha comes in with a 2.45 ERA and 1.064 WHIP on the season (12 starts) and a dazzling 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Ventura on the other hand is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.367 WHIP over 6 home starts (1-5 team record) and has an awful 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Key Trends - St Louis is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 5+ runs in their last game, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Kansas City is just 3-9 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or better, 3-9 in their last 12 home games against a right-handed starter and 5-11 in their last 16 interleague home games. System - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team are 49-23 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CARDINALS -112! |
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06-04-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -117 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* Interleague Game of the Month ---St Louis Cardinals -117--- No way am I passing up on the Cardinals at this price with ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright is tied for the NL lead with 8 wins and and ranks 4th in both ERA (2.32) and WHIP (0.91). He's already tossed 2 complete game shutouts and is 4-1 with a solid 3.14 ERA over his last 6 starts against the Royals. Kansas City will counter with Jason Vargas, who comes in with a 4.76 ERA and 1.647 WHIP over his last 3 starts and an ugly 5.26 ERA and 1.380 WHIP over 6 home starts in 2014. Key Trends - Wainwright is 13-3 in his last 16 road starts during the 1st half of the season and 9-2 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. St Louis is 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series System - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team are 47-23 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. |
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06-03-14 | Boston Red Sox -104 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* Red Sox/Indians MLB Blue Chip Top Play ---Boston Red Sox -104--- The Red Sox had their 7-game winning streak snapped in a 2-3 loss in their series opener at Cleveland on Monday. I look for Boston to bounce back an even things up with a relatively easy win on Tuesday. Cleveland's 24-year-old lefty T.J. House will be making just his 3 start of the season. House has had mixed results in his first two starts. He allowed 5 runs on 11 hits over 6 innings at Baltimore and then came back and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 1/3 innings at Chicago (White Sox). The Red Sox will counter with Jake Peavy, who is coming off his best start since he put together a strong 3-game stretch from late April to early May. Peavy held the Braves to just 3 runs on 8 hits over a season-best 8 innings in his last outing. In his last two starts against Cleveland, Peavy has allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits with 19 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. Key Trends/System - Boston is 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a left-handed starter, 11-4 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series and 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. Add it up and that's a 30-8 (79%) system telling us to BET THE RED SOX -104! |
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06-02-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -137 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play ---Tampa Bay Rays -137--- This is a solid price to back the Rays on the road against the Marlins. Tampa Bay is desperate for a win after getting swept in back-to-back series at Toronto and Boston. The good news for the Rays is that the Marlins are also in a funk. Miami just got swept at home by the Braves over the weekend and have now dropped 5 of 6 at home. Tampa Bay has a big advantage on the mound with Alex Cobb going up against Randy Wolf. Cobb has a 2.93 ERA and 1.043 WHIP over 5 starts and is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over two career starts against the Marlins. Wolf was just recently inserted into the starting rotation last week and in his season debut he was hit hard, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of a 1-7 loss to the Brewers. Wolf is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP over 2 career starts against the Rays. System - Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 110-55 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE RAYS -137! |
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05-31-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cleveland Indians -128 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
5* Interleague Game of the Month ---Cleveland Indians -128--- I'm backing the Indians at home in this one. Cleveland has a huge edge on the mound with Trevor Bauer going up against Colorado's Franklin Morales. Bauer has a 2.25 ERA at home, while Morales comes in with an ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.656 WHIP over 6 road starts. Colorado is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Rockies are just 12-19 on the road and are only averaging 3.6 runs and hitting .240 as a team away from home. Key Trends/System - Colorado is 5-22 in their last 27 interleague games against a team with a losing record and 7-23 in their last 30 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games against a left-handed starter and 16-5 in their last 21 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 67-18 (79%) system telling us to BET THE INDIANS! |
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05-27-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Philadelphia Phillies -116 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* Rockies/Phillies NL Game of the Month ---Philadelphia Phillies -116--- The Rockies (27-24) may have a better overall record than the Phillies (22-26), but Colorado has not played like a contender on the road. The Rockies are just 11-17 away from home this season and this is a great spot to fade Colorado, who has failed to score a single run in each of their last two games and are averaging just 2.7 runs over their last 7 contests. I'm confident Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels will keep the Rockies offense from getting back on track. Hamels got off to a bit of a rough start to 2014 after opening the season on the DL, but has since looked like the ace the Phillies envisioned. Hamels has a 2.14 ERA and 1.048 WHIP with 26 strikeouts in 21 innings over his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Rockies of late, allowing just 11 earned runs on 34 hits over his last 6 starts (44 innings) vs Colorado. Key Trends/System - Philadelphia is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a team that's won less than 40% of their road games, while Colorado is 1-5 in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record. Add it up and that's a 17-4 (81%) system telling us to BET THE PHILLIES -116! |
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05-22-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Blue Chip Total of the Month ---Marlins/Phillies UNDER 7.5--- There have been 30 runs scored combined in the first two games of this series, which has created some great value on the UNDER with today's total of 7.5. Philadelphia will be sending out Cole Hamels, who has a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts. The Marlins counter with Henderson Alvarez, who is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA at home. Hamels has a 1.59 ERA in his last 5 starts in Miami and both of Alvarez's two complete game shutouts have come at Marlins Park. Key Trends/System - UNDER is 4-1 in Hamel's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 or more runs and 6-2 in hi last 8 starts when the Phillies give up 5+ the game before. It's also 12-5 in Hamel's last 17 starts as a road favorite, 6-1-3 in Alvarez's last 10 starts against division opponents and 7-3-1 in Alvarez's last 11 home starts with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. Add it up and that's a 35-11 (76%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7.5! |
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05-17-14 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -120 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* NL West Game of the Month ---Colorado Rockies -120--- The Rockies have one of the best home records in 2014 at 14-5, while the Padres are a mere 8-12 on the road. I'll gladly back Colorado at home at this price with Jordan Lyles on the mound. Lyles has been one of the big surprises so far this season, as he comes in 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.085 WHIP over his first 8 starts. The Rockies are a perfect 3-0 in his 3 home starts, where Lyles has a dominant 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. Adding to the value here is that the Padres will be sending out youngster Robbie Erlin, who will be making his first career start at Coors Field. Erlin has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP over his 3 road starts and more times than not young pitchers like Erlin get rocked in their first start at Coors and I expect tonight to be no different. The real key here is that the Padres are so bad offensively that I don't think the thin air of Colorado can help them put up enough runs to win this game. Triple-System - Colorado is 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 16-4 in their last 20 home games when they come in having lost 3 of 4 and 12-4 in their last 16 games against a NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 to 4.70. That's a 80% triple-system in telling us to BET THE ROCKIES -120! |
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05-16-14 | Miami Marlins v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 109 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Month I believe there's a ton of value here with the over. San Francisco is hitting .294 over their last 6 home games and will be facing Miami's Henderson Alvarez, who has been awful away from home. Alvarez has a 3.33 ERA overall, but is 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.892 WHIP over four road starts. The key here is that the Marlins should be able to manage at least 3-4 runs against Yusmeiro Petit, who is filling in for Tim Hudson. Petit looked good in his first start against the light-hitting Padres, but allowed 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in his most recent start at Pittsburgh. System - The OVER is 15-4 in Miami's last 19 games after two straight overs, 12-3 in their last 15 after playing 2 or more consecutive games on the road and 11-1 in Petit's last 12 home starts after a team win. Add it up and that's a 83% Triple-System telling us to BET THE OVER 7.5! |
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05-15-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -143 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play ---Milwaukee Brewers -143--- I have no problem laying big juice on the Brewers at home with Yovani Gallardo on the mound. Gallardo comes into this game with a 2.92 ERA and 1.216 WHIP on the season and has owned the Pirates over his career. Gallardo is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.170 WHIP over 21 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates will counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who has been awful so far in 2014. Rodriguez is 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA and 1.600 WHIP over his first four starts and has an even worse 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP on the road. This will be Rodriguez's first start off the DL and he showed little promise of being any better in his two rehab starts, as he allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with 6 walks over just 8 2/3 innings of work. System - Gallardo is 32-16 (67%) over his last 48 starts against a team that's hitting .255 or worse on the season. BET THE BREWERS -143! |
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05-07-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip NL Total of the Month ---Braves/Cardinals Under 7--- The St Louis Cardinals have one of the best starters in baseball taking the mound tonight in Adam Wainwright, who I fully expect to rebound from a rough start against the Cubs with a dominant showing against a struggling Atlanta offense. In Wainwright's previous three starts before getting hit hard by Chicago, he didn't allow a single run over 24 innings. The other key to a low-scoring game is that Atlanta will send out lefty Mike Minor. In his season debut last Friday, Minor allowed just 2 runs over 6 innings. The thing I love is that the St Louis has really struggled to get anything going offensively against left-handed starters. They are averaging just 2.9 runs and hitting a mere .213 as a team in their 7 games this season against a southpaw. The UNDER is 20-4-2 in the Cardinals last 26 games against the NL East, 14-4-3 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning record and 3-0-1 in Wainwright's last 4 starts against an opponent who scored 2 runs or less in their last game. The UNDER is also 10-1 in the Braves last 11 home games, 6-0 in their last 6 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs and 3-0-1 in Minor's last 4 starts against the NL Central. That's 86% Multi-System telling us to BET THE UNDER 7! |
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05-02-14 | Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies -104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NL East Blue Chip Game of the Month ---Philadelphia Phillies -104--- I'll gladly back the Phillies at home with Cliff Lee on the mound. We are getting a great price here on Philadelphia because of the Nationals sending out Stephen Strasburg. While Strasburg is a big name, he hasn't pitched like an ace. He's just 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in six starts. He's been even worse on the road, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two starts. Lee is 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA, but what really stands out is his 2.40 ERA at home and 1.57 ERA over his last three starts. Lee also has a strong 2.87 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over 11 career starts against the Nationals. Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are just 14-33 (30%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PHILLIES -104! |
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04-18-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -112 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip NL Central Game of the Month ---Pittsburgh Pirates -112--- We are getting exceptional value on the Pirates in this one, as the Brewers are being overvalued due to their strong start. Milwaukee has cooled off considerably and are just 1-3 in their last 4 games. During this 4-game stretch the Brewers have scored just 8 runs. I look for Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton to add to Milwaukee's struggles at the plate. Morton is 0-1 in his 3 starts so far in 2014, but has a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. In his only start at home, he allowed just 4 hits and struck out 6 in 6 shutout innings. The Brewers counter with Kyle Lohse, who is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA, but was not good in his only start on the road. Lohse allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks at Philadelphia. In his last start at Pittsburgh, the Pirates tagged Lohse for 5 runs on 13 hits. BET THE PIRATES -112! |
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04-16-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -121 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* AL West Game of the Month ---Texas Rangers -121--- We are getting the Rangers at a great price at home tonight. Texas will send out Yu Darvish, who is one of my favorites to win the 2014 AL Cy Young award. Darvish certainly has disappointed early. He's yet to allowed an earned run over 15 innings, giving him a 0.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two starts. He faces a Mariners offense that has scored 1 or fewer runs in three of their last four games. Seattle counters with Felix Hernandez, who is without a doubt one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he's struggled in his career against Texas. He's 12-20 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.328 WHIP over 39 starts. In his last two starts against the Rangers, Hernandez has given up 14 runs on 16 hits in just 8 innings of work. Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 games vs a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15, 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-11 in Hernandez's last 15 starts after the opposing team scored 5 runs or more in the last game. Texas is 8-1 in their last 9 vs a right-handed starter, 12-2 in their last 14 as a home favorite and 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE RANGERS -121! |
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04-11-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -113 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
5* NL West Game of the Month
---Los Angeles Dodgers -113--- This is a great spot to jump on the Dodgers as a small road favorite. Los Angeles will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is poised to bounce back from a rough start at home last time out. Ryu has been brilliant on the road. He's not allowed a single run and has given up just 5 hits over 12 innings of work. Last time Ryu took the mound in Arizona, he allowed just 2 hits over 5 scoreless innings. Arizona counters with Brandon McCarthy, who has been awful in in his first two starts of the season. McCarthy allowed 5 runs at home in a loss to the Giants and 6 runs in a defeat at Colorado. In his last two starts vs the Dodgers, he given up 18 hits and 6 runs over just 12 and 1/3 innings. McCarthy is just 5-13 over the last 2 seasons against the money line with a total set between 8.5 and 10 runs. Arizona is 3-14 in their last 17 during Game 1 of a series, 1-6 in their last 7 vs a left-handed starter, 0-5 in their last 5 as a home underdog and 1-7 in McCarthy's last 8 vs a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 12-2 in Ryu's last 14 vs a team with a losing record and 25-7 in their last 32 during Game of a series! BET THE DODGERS! |
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04-09-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
5* American League Over/Under Game of the Month
---Rays/Royals Over 8.5--- Your first instinct might be to bet the UNDER given these two teams have combined for just 7 runs in the first two games of the series, but Mother Nature should provide a spark to both offenses this afternoon. Winds are expected to be blowing out of Kauffman Stadium at roughly 15 mph. That's bad news for today's two starters. Tampa Bay's Jake Ordorizzi and Kansas City's Jeremy Guthrie are both fly ball pitchers, with Guthrie on an extreme level (73% for career). I expect to see multiple home runs and with both pitchers struggling with command (walked 7 combined between their first starts of 2014), we should see the total here easily finish in double-digits. The OVER is 8-2 in the Rays last 10 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 12-5-1 in their last 18 after scoring 2 or less in their last contest, and 7-3-1 in Guthrie's last 11 starts at home. BET THE OVER 8.5! |
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04-06-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play
---St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+109)--- There's great value with the Cardinals run line today. St Louis will be sending out one of the elite pitchers in the game in Adam Wainwright against Edison Volquez. Wainwright finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young race last year and was dominant in his first start against the Reds (3 hits in 7 shutout innings). Volquez went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA last year with the Padres and Dodgers. Volquez averaged 4.07 walks/nine innings (3rd worst in the majors) and was up to his old tricks with 6 free passes in the Spring (13 innings). There's a strong run-line system in play here.Road teams who won the previous matchup, where they held the opposing team to 1 run or less in a matchup involving two teams who finished with winning records the previous year are 38-14 (73%) against the run line since 1997! BET THE CARDINALS -1.5! |
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04-01-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Texas Rangers -136 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play
---Texas Rangers -136--- Solid spot to jump on the Rangers as a relatively small priced home favorite, especially after losing the opener last night. I really like what Texas has done this offseason and I'm big on 22-year-old Martin Perez, who posted a 3.19 ERA and 1.24 over his final 12 appearances in 2013. The Phillies will send out A.J. Burnett, who is making his debut with his new team. Burnett is coming off a great 2013 campaign, but the majority of his success came at Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Burnett had a 2.37 ERA at home and 4.22 ERA on the road. He was also torched for 5 runs on six hits in his lone start vs the Rangers. Burnett is just 7-27 in his last 34 starts as a road underdog of +125 to +150. BET THE RANGERS -136! |
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10-23-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox OVER 7 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* World Series Game 1 Blue Chip Top Play
---Cardinals/Red Sox OVER 7--- The public is all over the UNDER in this one, which isn't all that surprising after both offenses struggled considerably in championship series. However, both teams have had extended rest to regroup and I look for the offenses to steal the show tonight. St. Louis is averaging 4.8 runs/game and the Red Sox are scoring 5.2 runs/game. I'm well aware of the low temps and possibility of rain. We still have a hitters friendly park in Boston and those poor conditions could make it difficult on the defenses to make those routine plays. The fact that oddsmakers have set this total at 7 and are driving money at the UNDER with plus odds, I'm confident I'm on the right side in this one. BET THE OVER! |
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10-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* Rays/Indians Over/Under Total Annihilator
---Rays/Indians UNDER 7--- I expect a pitchers duel tonight in the AL Wild-Card game between the Rays and Indians. While both teams will be sending out a couple of youngsters without any playoff experience, I look for both to step up and deliver a big time performance. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb finished 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA, but most importantly he was strong on the road (4-3 2.70 ERA) and has pitched well down the stretch (3-0 1.16 ERA 0.814 WHIP L3). Cleveland's Danny Salazar will be making just his 11th start. While he's just 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA on the season, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. There's a chance Salazar might not go deep in this game, but the Indians bullpen is well-rested and was very good this season. UNDER is 10-1 in Rays last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 21-8-2 in Rays last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-2 in Cobbs last 8 starts as a road favorite, 8-3 in Indians last 11 games as a home underdog and 4-1 in Salazars last 5 starts as an underdog. BET THE UNDER! |
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -126 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* Reds/Pirates NL Wild Card Blue Chip Top Play
---Pittsburgh Pirates -126--- The Reds closed out the regular season with five straight losses and I have a hard time seeing them getting a win on the road against the Pirates tonight. So much of the playoffs is determined by which team is playing the best baseball down the stretch. Pittsburgh has won five of six and the Pirates fans are going to treat this game like it's Game 7 of the World Series. My money is on Francisco Liriano over Johnny Cueto. Liriano is a dominant 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.964 WHIP over 11 home starts (9-2 team record). Cueto comes in off a couple of solid starts after returning from injury, but those came against the likes of the Astros and Mets. He's also not been as strong of a pitcher on the road and I could see him getting roughed up early. Cueto relies more on his control than striking out batters and he's not exactly in mid-season form with this being just his third start since the end of June. Adding to this is the fact that the Pirates are 39-19 over their last 58 games vs a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. BET PITTSBURGH! |
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09-18-13 | Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* Rangers/Rays AL East High Roller Top Play
---Tampa Bay Rays -125--- There's a lot to like with the Rays at this price. Tampa Bay is 46-29 at home this season and are hitting a solid .260 against left-handed starters. Texas will be starting Derek Holland, who is 9-9 with a 3.40 ERA. Don't read too much into Holland's overall numbers. He's getting up there in innings and has started to show signs of wearing down. He's 0-3 with a 8.77 ERA and 2.099 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rays counter with youngster Chris Archer, who has a 2.67 ERA and o.984 WHIP at home and is coming off a dominant start at Minnesota. Archer allowed just three hits and struck out seven in six scoreless innings. Tampa Bay is 7-3 when he takes the mound at Tropicana Field. BET THE RAYS! |
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09-17-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* NL West Blue Chip Over/Under Total Annihilator
---Dodgers/Diamondbacks UNDER 8--- These two teams combined for 3 runs on Monday with Ryu and Cahill on the mound. Tonight's pitching matchup is even better and I look for the final to come up well short of this total. The Dodgers will send out Zack Greinke, who is 14-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. In his 35 starts this year the UNDER is 17-7-1. Arizona counters with Pat Corbin, who is 14-6 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 29 starts overall and 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA at home. The UNDER is 10-5 in Corbin's 15 home starts in 2013. In Greinke's only start at Arizona this season, he allowed just 2 runs on two hits in seven innings of work. In Corbin's only start at home vs the Dodgers he threw six shutout innings, allowing just two hits. The UNDER is 11-3 in the Diamondbacks last 14 games after allowing 3 runs or less in 3 straight games, 21-9 in the Diamondbacks last 30 games following a 1 run win and 9-1 in Greinke's last 10 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. Combined that's a dominant 75% Triple System that tells us to clearly BET THE UNDER! |
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09-11-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -133 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -133 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* AL East Blue Chip Game of the Week
---Tampa Bay Rays -133--- The Rays desperately need a win tonight, as they now just 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland and Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay really struggled over their 10-game road trip. They are 44-27 at home this year and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 vs the Red Sox with a much-needed victory. The Rays have a solid edge on the mound in this one. Tampa Bay will send out Alex Cobb, who is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA in 18 starts. Cobb has been rock solid at home, going 5-0 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 10 starts. He will go up against he struggling Ryan Dempster, who has a miserable 7.13 ERA and 1.472 WHIP over his last three starts. Dempster is also just 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.559 WHIP over 9 road starts. Tampa Bay is 15-4 in their last 19 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 17-7 in their last 24 vs. American League East and 11-4 in Cobb's last 15 starts as a home favorite. BET THE RAYS! |
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09-10-13 | San Diego Padres v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator
---Padres/Phillies UNDER 8.5--- The Phillies come in off a three-game sweep of the Braves, while the Padres just won five of six. Both teams have been winning thanks to great starting pitching. San Diego has scored just 3.4 runs/game and are hitting just .216 as a team over their last 7, while Philadelphia is hitting just .240 and has scored just 3.3 runs/game over their last 7. I expect both offenses to continue to struggle to put up runs with two very underrated pitchers taking the mound tonight. The Padres Andrew Cashner has a 0.86 ERA and 1.095 WHIP over his last three starts and the Phillies Tyler Cloyd has been impressive in his recent call-ups. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in five of his seven starts in 2013. UNDER is 7-1 in the Padres last 8 games vs a team with a losing record and 6-1 in their last 7 road games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The UNDER is also 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 4-0 in Cloyds last 4 starts vs a team with a losing record. BET THE UNDER! |
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09-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* Cardinals/Reds Blue Chip Over/Under Total Annihilator
---Cardinals/Reds OVER 8--- St Louis will send out youngster Shelby Miller against veteran Bronson Arroyo tonight. After a pitchers duel took place last night in a 1-0 Reds win, I expect both the offenses to steal the show. Miller has been on a downhill slide in the second half and has not pitched well on the road. He's got a 4.32 ERA and 1.381 WHIP over his last three starts and a 4.43 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 13 starts on the road. Arroyo comes in with a hefty 6.61 ERA and 1.470 WHIP over his last three starts and he's not had much luck against the Cardinals in his career. Arroyo is just 8-16 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 35 starts vs St Louis. His most recent start against the Cardinals came at home on Aug 2 and he was torched for 7 runs on 8 hits in just 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Don't let last night's low-scoring affair scare you. Last night was just the second time in eight meetings this season that these two teams have finished under the posted total. The OVER is 4-1 in the Reds last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less and a perfect 7-0 when they score 2 runs or less. On top of that, the OVER is 22-10-3 in the Reds last 35 home games vs a team with a winning record and 8-2 in the Cardinals last 10 road games vs a team with a winning record. Add these up and that's a 71% system in our favor. BET THE OVER! |
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09-03-13 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
5* AL West Blue Chip Game of the Month
---Oakland A's -130--- The A's are on fire right now. Oakland has won 7 of their last 8 overall and are now in a tie with the Rangers for 1st place in the AL West. I look for the A's to take over the top spot tonight behind their ace Bartolo Colon, who is coming off a promising outing at Detroit last Thursday. Colon held the Tigers to just 1 run on 7 hits in 5 innings of work. Look for an even stronger performance at home, where he's 6-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Colon is also an impressive 19-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in his career vs the Rangers. Texas counters with Martin Perez, who can't be too excited about facing the A's. Perez is 1-2 with a 9.90 ERA and 2.100 WHIP in three career starts vs Oakland. He's also got a lofty 4.39 ERA on the road and comes in with a 4.05 ERA over his last three. Perez has an impressive 8-3 record thanks to the Rangers offense, but they won't be able to help him in this one. Oakland's bats have came alive and they are 22-8 against the money line in home games when they come in having hit a home run in 10 consecutive games since 1997. The A's are also 32-15 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season and Colon is 21-8 in night games over the last two years and 17-6 following two straight starts where he walked 1 or fewer. BET THE A'S! |
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08-28-13 | New York Yankees -136 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* AL East Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play
---New York Yankees -136--- The Yankees rebounded like expected with a win in Game 2 of the series and have now won 13 of 15 against Toronto this season. The Yankees have a lot of momentum going right now with a 7-3 run. They are just 4.5-games back of Oakland for the final Wild Card spot. Hard to not like the Yankees against a Blue Jays team that has nothing to play for. Tonight's pitching matchup features two starters that both are coming off pretty bad starts. New York's Hiroki Kuroda allowed 7 runs in six innings of a 7-2 loss at Tampa Bay, while Toronto's Todd Redmond was tagged for 8 runs on 8 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings of a 12-4 loss at Houston. I'll take my chances on the established Kuroda to be the one to bounce back the strongest, especially considering he's 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA over his last 5 starts vs the Blue Jays. BET THE YANKEES! |
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08-27-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Atlanta Braves -136 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* High Roller Blue Chip Game of the Month
---Atlanta Braves -136--- This is an excellent price to back the Braves at home against the Indians. Atlanta will extremely motivated to start off their series against Cleveland on a positive note after losing the first three of a four game set at St Louis over the weekend. The Braves will send out promising youngster Alex Wood, who is 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in seven starts. Wood has been even better of late with a 0.98 ERA and 0.873 WHIP over his last three starts and is also supporting a 2.02 ERA in four starts at home. He has the edge on the mound against the Indians Danny Salazar, who has been roughed up a bit of late. Salazar is 1-1 with a respectable 3.52 ERA over four starts, but is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA over his last three. One of his biggest problems so far has been giving up the home run ball, he's allowed 5 in 4 starts, which is never a good thing when facing the explosive offense of the Braves. Regardless of the pitching matchup, getting the Braves at this price at home is simply too good to pass up. Atlanta is 44-18 at home this season. Also big value here with the Braves coming in with a day off, as they are 28-8 returning from an off day over the last two seasons. Cleveland is a mere 19-37 in their last 56 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125. BET THE BRAVES! |
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08-26-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -107 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
5* NL Central Blue Chip Top Play
---St Louis Cardinals -107--- The Cardinals are showing great value at home in a huge a division showdown vs the Reds. Cincinnati just lost two of three at home the Brewers over the weekend, including a 1-3 loss on Sunday. Cincinnati is just 4-13 against the money line in road games after scoring 1 run or less in their previous game this season. The Reds will send out Mike Leake, who is 2-4 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.539 WHIP over seven career starts vs this Cardinals. St Louis is 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record and 41-15 in their last 56 home games vs a right handed starter. BET THE CARDINALS! |
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08-24-13 | Chicago Cubs v. San Diego Padres -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* Blockbuster NL Blue Chip Top Play
---San Diego Padres -123--- I'll be the first to admit that I was a bit fortunate to get a win with the Padres last night, as the Cubs jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the top of the first. However, a win is a win and I believe that come from behind win is crucial to betting San Diego again tonight. The Padres are small home favorites here, mostly due to the Cubs Jeff Samardzija coming off a complete game where he allowed just 1 run on six hits. Even with that performance, Samardzija still has a 6.47 ERA and 1.473 WHIP over his last three starts. He's really struggled to put back-to-back strong starts together in the second half. I'll take my chances here on a more motivated San Diego team that will send Eric Stults to the mound, who is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 12 home starts (9-3 team record). BET THE PADRES! |
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08-23-13 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays -108 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* AL East Blue Chip Game of the Week
---Tampa Bay Rays -108--- The Yankees winning streak comes to and end tonight against division rival Tampa Bay. The Rays are playing pretty well themselves, having won six of eight. Tampa Bay is 18-games over .500 at home, which has them showing unbelievable value here. Chris Archer takes the mound for the Rays. He's got a solid 2.88 ERA at home, but most importantly he has dominated the Yankees in both starts this season. Archer has allowed a total of just 1 run on 8 hits and 1 walk in 15 innings of work vs NY. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 6.11 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in three career starts vs Tampa. BET THE RAYS! |
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08-22-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* NL High Roller Blue Chip Total Top Play
---Rockies/Phillies OVER 9--- This game should have no trouble going OVER the total tonight. Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is coming off a strong start where he allowed just 1 earned run over six innings. Kendrick has rarely been able to put two starts like that back-to-back. The OVER is 27-9 in Kendrick's last 36 starts following an outing where he allowed 1 or less earned runs. Kendrick held the Nationals to 1 run in 7 and 2/3 innings on 6/19. In his next start he was rocked for 6 runs on 9 hits in a game that saw 17 combined runs. It certainly helps that the Rockies are averaging 6.4 runs/game vs NL starters with a WHIP of 1.350 to 1.450 this season and the fact that Kendrick has a 6.08 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 10 career starts vs Colorado. The Rockies add even more value here by sending out youngster Chad Bettis, who has a 5.30 ERA and 1.768 WHIP in 4 starts and 6.39 ERA and 2.131 WHIP over 2 road starts. BET THE OVER! |
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08-21-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* AL East Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play
---Baltimore Orioles -113--- The Orioles will be extremely motivated to avoid getting swept at home by the Rays and are clearly showing some solid value listed as small favorite tonight. Baltimore will send out Wei-Yin Chen, who has a respectable 3.23 ERA over 15 starts and a solid 3.15 ERA in six starts at home. I'll take my chances on Chen and the Orioles against the struggling Jeremy Hellickson, who comes in with a 7.90 ERA and 1.829 WHIP over his last three starts and a 5.40 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 12 road appearances. Hellickson's only start at Baltimore this season didn't go well at all, as he gave up 8 runs on 10 hits in 7 and 2/3 innings of work. Baltimore is 27-13 over their last 40 vs a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BBs/Start, 19-9 in Chen's last 28 when playing against a team with a winning record and Tampa Bay is just 1-6 in their last 7 vs left-handed starters! BET THE ORIOLES! |
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08-20-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Philadelphia Phillies -101 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play
---Philadelphia Phillies -101--- The Phillies have now won two straight under interim head coach Ryan Sandberg, and are showing excellent value at home tonight. Philadelphia will send out youngster Tyler Cloud, who is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA over six starts. Cloud has been very effective of late, posting a 1.45 ERA over his last three starts. The Rockies have now lost three straight since putting together a nice little run. Colorado is simply not a very good road team, as they are a miserable 19 games under .500 (22-41) away from home and 16-39 over their last 55 road games vs a team with a winning home record. The Phillies on the other hand are a strong 8-3 win their last 11 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. BET THE PHILLIES! |
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08-19-13 | Washington Nationals -130 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
5* Blue Chip MLB Game of the Month
---Washington Nationals -130--- The Nationals have won six of nine overall with all three losses coming by just one run each. Washington is fighting for their playoff lives, as they trail St Louis and Cincinnati by 9.5 for one of the two Wild Card spots. The Cubs have lost six of their last seven with all six losses coming by at least two runs. Chicago is a miserable 14-games under .500 at home. Washington is a dominant 10-2(83%) over their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and there's every reason to back them at this price given they will send Jordan Zimmerman to the mound, who is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts. Zimmerman will be opposed by the struggling Jeff Samardzija, who is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.153 WHIP over his last three starts. BET THE NATIONALS! |
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08-17-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
5* MLB Blue Chip Over/Under Top Play
---White Sox/Twins UNDER 7--- These two teams should have no trouble finishing under the total. The Twins offense will be going up against White Sox Chris Sale, who despite how bad his team is, has still pitched extremely well. Sale has a 2.79 ERA over 19 starts. Minnesota counters with Andrew Albers, who has simply been lights out in his first two big league starts. Albers hasn't allowed a run in 17 and 1/3 innings of work and has given up just six hits and only walked one. BET THE UNDER! |
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08-16-13 | New York Mets v. San Diego Padres -135 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
5* High Roller Blue Chip Top Play
---San Diego Padres -135--- The Padres are showing great value at home tonight with a rejuvenated Ian Kennedy on the mound against the struggling Jon Niese. Kennedy has looked like a completely different pitcher since being traded to San Diego and has posted a 3.34 ERA over his last five starts. It certainly helps that Kennedy has a strong history against the Mets, as he is 4-0 with a respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.213 WHIP. Neise has been bad for most of 2013 and has shown no life of turning it around. He's got a 4.45 ERA over 15 starts, a 5.40 ERA over his last three and a miserable 6.54 ERA on the road. BET THE PADRES! |
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08-15-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -122 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
5* Pirates/Cardinals MLB Early Bird Blue Chip Top Play
---St Louis Cardinals -122--- This is a huge game for St Louis in the rubber match vs the Pirates at home. The Cardinals trail Pittsburgh by 3 games in the NL Central and while they are in a good position to bring home one of the Wild Card spots, they would much rather win the division than play in a one-game playoff. The key here is that the Cardinals will get back their heart and soul in catcher Yadier Molina, whose absence has played a big role in their struggles over the last couple weeks. It's also good news for starter Lance Lynn to have Molina back behind the plate. Lynn is 8-2 with a 2.78 ERA over 12 home starts and comes in with a strong 2.61 ERA and 0.919 WHIP over his last three. Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett on the other hand is just 2-5 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 10 road starts. BET THE CARDINALS! |
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08-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NL Blue Chip Top Play
---Washington Nationals -145--- The Nationals come in having won three straight and this is really their last chance to string together a run and make a push for one of the two Wild Card spots. The Giants on the other hand are completely out of it and really have nothing to get excited about at this point outside of playing spoiler. Tonight's pitching matchup strongly favors the Nationals, who send out Jordan Zimmerman against the Giants Tim Lincecum. Zimmerman is 9-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 14 starts at home and a dominant 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.018 WHIP over 16 starts in night games. Lincecum is just 2-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 11 road starts. He comes into this game off a brilliant start at home against the Brewers, where he allowed just 1 hit over 8 shutout innings. The last time Lincecum pitched that well was his no-hitter against the Padres on July 13. His very next start, he was torched for 8 runs on 9 hits in just 3 and 2/3 innings of work. Considering Washington is hitting a respectable .282 as a team over their last 7 and Lincecum is just 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his career vs the Nationals, it's easy to see why Washington is the play. BET THE NATIONALS! |
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08-13-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -114 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* AL Central High Roller Blue Chip Game of the Month
---Minnesota Twins -114--- The Twins are showing excellent value as a small home favorite. Minnesota is playing some of their best baseball right now. They have won 4 of 5 and 8 of their last 11 overall. The Twins will send out Sam Deduno, who is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in five starts at home. The Indians counter with Zach McAllister, who is 1-4 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in seven road starts. If that's not enough, Deduno is 9-1 in home night games over the last two seasons! BET THE TWINS! |
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08-12-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Arizona Diamondbacks -116 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* Late Night High Roller Blue Chip Top Play
---Arizona Diamondbacks -116--- The Diamondbacks have a clear edge on the mound tonight, as they send out the surging Wade Miley against the struggling Scott Feldman. Miley has gone 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts and has now allowed 3 earned runs or less in 12 consecutive starts. The Orioles are averaging 4.8 runs with a .266 average on the season, but that drops to 4.2 runs and a .253 average when they square up against a left-handed starter. Feldman is just 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA over his last three starts. While he's 9-9 with a 4.10 ERA over 21 starts this season, he's struggled in night games, posting a 5.08 ERA in 14 starts. Feldman is also a miserable 4-13 over his last 17 games vs a team with a winning record. BET THE DIAMONDBACKS! |
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08-11-13 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 118 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
5* Early Bird Run Line Blue Chip Top Play
---St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+118)--- The St Louis Cardinals are worth a strong look on the run line in Sunday's series finale against the Cubs. St Louis desperately needs to win this game after dropping four straight. Hard to not like their chances given the direction the two starters are headed in this one. The Cardinals Joe Kelly has went 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in six starts and is 2-0 with a ridiculous 0.51 ERA over his last three starts. He faces off against the Cubs Edwin Jackson, who was just torched in Philadelphia for 7 runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. Jackson is a miserable 3-7 with a 5.18 ERA in 12 road starts and has a poor 4.44 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in his career vs St Louis. BET THE CARDINALS -1.5! |
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08-10-13 | San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NL Over/Under Blockbuster Total Annihilator
---Padres/Reds UNDER 8--- San Diego's Tyson Ross and Cincinnati's Tony Cingrani are not getting the respect they deserve. Ross has a 2.38 ERA over six starts and a dominant 1.35 ERA and 0.700 WHIP over his last three. Cingrani has a 2.87 ERA over 13 starts and a 2.41 ERA over his last three. Hitter-friendly ballpark or not, I'll take my chances on these two teams finishing under 8 runs with these two starting pitchers. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Padres last 8 road games vs LHP and 4-1 in Ross' last 5 starts as an underdog. It's also 8-3 in the Reds last 11 home games vs a team with a road winning % less than .400. BET THE UNDER! |
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08-09-13 | Baltimore Orioles -127 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
5* Orioles/Giants Late Night Blue Chip Top Play
---Baltimore Orioles -127--- The Orioles should have no trouble escaping with a win on Friday night at San Francisco. Baltimore's Chris Tillman is 14-3 with a 3.89 ERA over 22 starts and a dominant 7-1 with a 3.23 ERA on the road (8-1 team record). He will be opposed by Ryan Vogelsong, who will be making his first start since May 20. He was just 2-4 with a 7.19 ERA at the point (9 starts) and should struggle in his first start back. BET THE ORIOLES! |
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08-08-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals +110 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* Red Sox/Royals MLB Late Night Blue Chip Top Play
---Kansas City Royals +110--- The Royals shouldn't be an underdog at home. Kansas City is playing as well as any team in baseball right now, as they have won 13 of their last 15 overall. I'll take my chances on the home team with a clear edge on the mound. The Royals Bruce Chen has been outstanding since being inserted back in the starting rotation. He's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.583 WHIP in four starts. Boston will counter with Jon Lester, who is just 6-6 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 14 road starts and is coming off a miserable start where he allowed 6 runs on 11 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. BET THE ROYALS! |
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08-07-13 | Texas Rangers -109 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* AL West High Roller Blue Chip Game of the Month
---Texas Rangers -109--- The Rangers have taken the first two games of the series and I fully expect them to pull off the sweep tonight. Texas will send out Alexi Ogando, who 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA over his last 4 starts vs the Angels. Ogando will be opposed by Tommy Hanson, who has been awful pretty much all season. Hanson has a 5.29 ERA in 12 starts overall, 5.66 ERA at home and a 5.87 ERA over his last three. Texas is 32-14 vs division opponents this season and a solid 25-16 over their last 41 night games. The Angels are a dismal 9-15 over their last 24 when revenging two straight home losses to the same opponent. BET THE RANGERS! |
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08-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* AL Blue Chip Grand Slam Top Play
---Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+115)--- After last night's convincing 13-0 win over the Twins in the series opener, Kansas City has now 12-1 over their last 13 games. 7 of their last 10 victories have come by 2+ runs. With the Royals offense on fire and their ace James Shield on the mound, I'm going big on the Kansas City Run Line. Shields has a dominant 2.25 ERA over his last three starts and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start in over a month. Shields is also 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA over his last four starts vs the Twins. He will be opposed by lefty Andrew Albers, who will be making his MLB debut. Considering the Royals are hitting .292 over their last 7 games and have the 8th best average against lefties in baseball at .260, I like their chances of putting up a big crooked number tonight. This play falls into two very profitable system. Road underdogs of +175 to +250, who feature a terrible offense (less than 2 runs/game)against a good starting pitcher (ERA less than 4.20) with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 8-66 and losing by an average score of 2.6 runs/game. Home favorites of -175 to -250 with a well rested bullpen (3 innings or less over last 2 games) against oppoent whose bullpen just threw 6 or more innings in their last game are 43-7 and are winning by an average of 2.5 run/game. BET THE ROYALS -1.5! |
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08-05-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -135 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* High Roller Blue Chip Top Play
---Seattle Mariners -135--- The Blue Jays were fortunate to avoid a 4-game sweep at Los Angeles, as scored 4-runs in the final two innings to steal a 6-5 win. I fully expect Toronto to go back to their losing ways against the Mariners, who will be sending out one of the most underrated pitchers in the game in Hisashi Iwakuma. In 23 starts, Iwakuma is 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. He's 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.766 WHIP at home and comes in supporting a 0.96 ERA over his last three starts. Not to mention, Iwakuma is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two career starts vs the Blue Jays. One of those came earlier this year in Toronto, where he allowed just 1 run on five hits over 7 innings of a 8-1 Mariners victory. He will be opposed by R.A. Dickey, who has clearly not been the same pitcher in 2013. Dickey is 8-11 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 23 starts and comes in with a 4.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP over his last three outings. Dickey opposed Iwakuma in his only start vs Seattle this season and was torched for 7 runs on 6 hits in six innings. In his two career starts vs the Marines he has a horrific 10.03 ERA and 1.542 WHIP. Iwakuma is 16-6 over his last 22 starts at home and 11-3 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Seattle also falls into a very profitable situation. Home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 142-71 (67%) over the last 5 seasons! BET THE MARINERS! |
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08-03-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago Cubs -102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
5* MLB Early Bird High Roller Top Play
---Chicago Cubs -102--- There's no question the Dodgers are playing outstanding baseball right now, but I believe there's exceptional value on the Cubs at home in this one. Chicago will send out Jeff Samardzija against the Dodgers Chris Capuano. Samardzija hasn't had the season the Cubs were hoping for, but he comes into this one on quite a run. He's got a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts and will certainly be motivated after allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in his only start against LA last season. The Cubs offense hasn't been much to speak of, but they come into this one off a strong showing on Friday. While they only managed to score 2 runs in Friday's 2-6 loss, they pounded out 14 hits. I look for the hot bats to carry over to Saturday against Capuano, who is just 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 13 starts this season. BET THE CUBS! |
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08-02-13 | Washington Nationals -134 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* High Roller NL Blue Chip Top Play
---Washington Nationals -134--- I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Nationals as they head to Milwaukee for a 3-game series over the weekend. Washington is in desperation mode right now,trying to get back in the playoff race. The Brewers on the other hand are counting down to the days until the season is over. With that I'll gladly take my chances on the Nationals with tonight's pitching matchup. Washington's Jordan Zimmerman has been roughed up in each of his last two starts, but keep in mind that both of those starts came during a day game. Zimmerman has been at his best when he takes the mound at night. He's 10-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 14 starts in night games. Not to mention he's 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Brewers. He'll be opposed by Tom Gorzelanny, who just recorded his first win in 15 starts dating back to 2011! BET THE NATIONALS! |
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08-01-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Los Angeles Angels -108 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
5* Blue Jays/Angels MLB Blue Chip Top Play
---Los Angels Angels -108--- Given how tonight's two starters have performed in their home/away splits, I think we are getting exceptional value on the Angeles in this one. Youngster Garrett Richards is just 1-2 with a 4.65 ERA in five starts, but he's been nearly unhittable at home with a 2.70 ERA and 0.600 WHIP. Opposing Richards will be Toronto's Josh Johnson, who is 1-7 with a 6.08 ERA in 14 starts and 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. The Angels come in having lost six straight, but could easily be riding a 3-game win streak. In their most recent series, they lost all three games via a walk-off. The Angeles are 6-1 in Richards last 7 starts as a home favorite, while the Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win and 1-5 in their last 6 during Game 1 of a series. BET THE ANGELS! |
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07-31-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Oakland A's -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
5* Blue Jays/A's Blue Chip Game of the Week
---Oakland A's -147--- The A's had their 4-game winning streak snapped last night, but still come in red-hot having won 7 of 10 overall. They haven't lost back-to-back games in nearly two weeks and I expect that trend to continue with their ace Bartolo Colon on the mound. It certainly helps matters when you consider the Rays are a horrible 1-10 in their last 11 games following a win and 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Colon is 14-3 with a 2.54 ERA and the A's are a dominant 17-4 in his 21 starts overall. Colon is also 6-1 at home and is on fire with a 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts. I fully expect him to shutdown the Blue Jays offensively. At the same time, I look for Oakland to provide Colon with enough runs to ensure a victory, as they go up against the struggling R.A. Dickey. In 22 starts this season the 2012 Cy Young winner is 8-11 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.301 WHIP. He's been roughed up of late, allowing 9 runs on 14 hits over his last two starts. We have a 100% system in play on this game. As Colon is a perfect 10-0 against the money line after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his two previous outings. BET THE A's! |
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07-29-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers -127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
5* ANGELS/RANGERS ESPN BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Texas Rangers -127--- I'll gladly back the Rangers at home with one of the hottest starters in baseball taking the mound for Texas. Matt Garza, who was recently acquired from the Cubs has won six straight starts while posting a ridiculous 1.23 ERA. In his first start with the Rangers, Garza allowed 1 unearned run on five hits over 7 and 1/3 innings of work in a 3-1 victory of the Yankees. He should have a solid edge with this being his first start vs the Angels in 3 years. Los Angeles will counter with a hot pitcher of their own in Jered Weaver, who has a 1.77 ERA over his last three starts. However, Weaver has not been as sharp on the road. He's 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA in five starts away from home. During his recent three game stretch, he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in a 0-6 loss at Seattle, which just goes to show you how good he's been at home. Weaver's only start vs the Rangers in 2013 came in Texas back in early April. He allowed 5 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 3-7 defeat. BET THE RANGERS! |
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07-26-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -113 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---St Louis Cardinals -113--- I've been riding the Adam Wainwright train from the start of the season and there's no way I'm passing up on the ace at this price. The Cardinals are 15-6 in Wainwright's 21 starts this season and he's been just as strong on the road as he has at home. In fact, he's riding an 8-game win streak away from home and is 8-1 with 2.93 ERA over 12 road starts in 2013. While the Braves send out a pretty good starter of their own in Mike Minor, St Louis is 25-8 over their last 33 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are also a dominant 20-7 over their L27 vs the NL East and 6-0 in Wainwright's last 6 road starts vs a team with a winning record. BET THE CARDINALS! |
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07-25-13 | Baltimore Orioles -130 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* AL BLUE CHIP BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY
---Baltimore Orioles -130--- The Orioles will be motivated to salvage a split in their 4-game series with the Royals and I like their chances of delivering a victory. Baltimore will send out Miguel Gonzalez, who is 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last three starts and has posted a dominant 2.93 ERA on the road this season. Kansas City's Jeremy Guthrie on the other hand has a 5.03 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.61 ERA at home. Each of the Royals last two wins have come by 2 runs or less and that sets up a very profitable trend to take Baltimore. Kansas City is just 5-15 over their last 20 games after two straight wins by less than 2 runs. BET THE ORIOLES! |
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07-24-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
5* NL OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Reds/Giants Under 7.5--- I expect to see a very low scoring game tonight between the Reds and Giants, which clearly means there's some big time value on the UNDER at 7.5. Cincinnati's Mike Leake has been unbelievable on the road, he's 6-0 with a 1.27 ERA over his last eight starts away from home. Adding even more value here is that he has a 0.77 ERA over his last three regular season starts vs the Giants. San Francisco will counter with Chad Gaudin, who has been a surprise to say the least since filling in the rotation for Ryan Vogelsong. Gaudin is 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA over seven starts in 2013 and comes in on fire with a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP over his last three outings. I have a hard time seeing either team scoring more than 3 runs in this game! BET THE UNDER 7.5! |
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07-23-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox -134 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* AL EAST BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH
---Boston Red Sox -134--- While the Rays have won six straight, including last night's series opener, my money is on the Red Sox to bounce back with a win at home in a game where they have a pretty big advantage on the mound. Tampa Bay's starters have been on an absolute tear, expect for today's starter Roberto Hernandez, who is just 1-1 with 4.50 ERA over his last three starts. The key here is that Hernandez is just 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA over eight road starts and will be facing a Boston team that is an impressive 33-18 at home this season. The Red Sox will send out Jon Lester, who has struggled since an impressive start to the season. However, Lester is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA over seven starts at home and Boston has won all seven. He's going to be pitching for the first time in 10-days, which should have him throwing more like the guy who was 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA at one point this season. BET THE RED SOX! |
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07-22-13 | Baltimore Orioles -114 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* AL NO DOUBT BLOCKBUSTER BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Baltimore Orioles -114--- The Orioles are showing great value as a small road favorite tonight against the Royals. Baltimore has won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall and have a clear edge on the mound. Kansas City's Wade Davis is a miserable 4-8 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.753 WHIP in 18 starts and will be making his first start since the All-Star break. He went into the break 0-3 with a 11.77 ERA and 2.000 WHIP over his last three starts. Baltimore's Scott Feldman has a respectable 3.86 ERA and has pitched well in two of his three starts since being acquired from the Cubs. His only poor start came against a very good offensive team in Texas. Feldman, who back in the day pitched for the Rangers, has a 2.41 ERA over 3 career starts vs the Royals, his best mark against any team he's faced more than once. BET THE ORIOLES! |
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07-21-13 | San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB RUN LINE MASSACRE TOP PLAY
---St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-104)--- I've had a lot of success picking my spots to back the Cardinals Adam Wainwright and I feel like today is definitely worth a shot. Given the ridiculously high price on the money line, I will be backing St Louis on the run line at a much more friendly -104. Wainwright will be extra motivated to make sure he pitches well. These two teams split the first two games and with this being a series the Cardinals really need to win at home, I expect Wainwright to deliver. Adding value here is that San Diego starter Eric Stultz has solid overall number at 8-7 with a 3.40 ERA, but he's actually not been anywhere close to that on the road. He's just 3-6 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. If that's not enough, Wainwright has a 1.02 ERA vs the Padres and Stults has a 5.07 ERA vs the Cardinals. BET ST LOUIS -1.5! |
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07-20-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -120 v. New York Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
5* NL EAST EARLY BIRD BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Philadelphia Phillies -120--- With last night's win over the Mets, the Phillies are now above .500. They have won three straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. I'm sticking with the hot hand and jumping on Philadelphia at what I believe is a huge discount on Saturday with Cole Hamels on the mound. Hamels got off to a rough start in 2013, but he went into the All-Star break riding three straight dominant starts where he went at least 7 innings and posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.870 WHIP. I fully expect Hamels to finish the season strong and we aren't going to get him at this price for much longer. New York will counter with youngster Zach Wheeler, who in his only start at home this season was shelled for 5 runs on 6 hits over just 4 and 2/3 innings of work. With the way Philadelphia is swinging the bat, I don't expect him to last long in this one. BET THE PHILLIES! |
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07-19-13 | San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NL OVER/UNDER GAME OF THE MONTH
---Padres/Cardinals UNDER 9--- Tonight's total for the Padres/Cardinals matchup has simply been set too high. St Louis will send out Jake Westbrook, who has nearly been unhittable at home this season, going 3-0 with a ridiculous 0.31 ERA and 0.793 WHIP. He will be opposed by Jason Marquis, who went into the All-Star break with a 2.55 ERA over his last three starts and he's pitched well in his career against the Cardinals, going 6-2 with a 3.49 ERA. In most recent start vs St Louis this season, he allowed just 1 earned run on three hits over six innings of work. I look for both offenses to be a bit sluggish coming off the break and for this game to finish well below the mark that's been set. BET THE UNDER! |
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07-14-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Baltimore Orioles -118 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
5* MLB BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Baltimore Orioles -118--- The Orioles are showing big time value at home today. Toronto's Josh Johnson is getting way too much respect. He's simply not the same pitcher he was with the Marlins. He's just 1-4 with 4.63 ERA in 11 starts this season and a miserable 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. BET THE ORIOLES! |
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07-13-13 | WHITE SOX GM1 v. PHILLIES GM1 -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
5* MLB BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Philadelphia Phillies -130--- ***I like this game for the same reasons I took it yesterday, but due to the fact that it's now part of a double-header I have downgraded it from my game of the month to a regular top play*** The Phillies come in having won six of eight and are just one-game back of .500. They are clearly going to be motivated to go into the All-Star break at or above that mark. The White Sox on the other hand are probably looking forward to some extended time off and it's hard to see them being all that excited about this series. I definitely like the Phillies at this price at home with the edge they should have on the mound. Philadelphia's Jonathan Pettibone is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 8 starts at home and the Phillies as a team are an impressive 7-1. As for Chicago starter John Danks, he's 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in five road starts. The Phillies are 18-5 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BET THE PHILLIES! |
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07-11-13 | Boston Red Sox -125 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
5* AL BLOCKBUSTER BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Boston Red Sox -125--- The Red Sox are surprisingly showing some great value here. Boston will send out a red-hot Ryan Dempster, who is 3-3 with 3.33 ERA over his last eight outings. He'll be looking for his 8th quality start over a span of nine starts. Hard to not like his chances given his success the Mariners. Both of Dempster's previous starts vs Seattle have come at Safeco Field, where he's posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Given the way the Red Sox are swinging the bats, Dempster might not even have to pitch well to get a win. Boston has exploded for 26 runs on 38 hits in the first three games of this series. That should continue given they will be facing Erasmo Ramirez, who will be making his 2013 debut. Ramirez wasn't exactly lighting it up in the minors, posting a 5.09 ERA in his last four starts before getting called up. Boston is 18-5 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive OVERS this season, which directly corresponds to them swinging the bad well. At the same time Seattle is a mere 2-12 against the money line revenging a home loss of 6+ runs over the last three seasons! Combined these two systems provide us with a very profitable 81% angle! BET THE RED SOX! |
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07-10-13 | Oakland A's v. Pittsburgh Pirates -129 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* BLUE CHIP INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH
---Pittsburgh Pirates -129--- After losing the first two games of the series by a total of just two runs, I fully expect the Pirates to answer the call and avoid getting swept at home with a clear edge on the mound. Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano has been one of the biggest surprises of 2013. He's now 8-3 with a 2.20 ERA over 11 starts and comes into this contest having gone 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts. Liriano is also a dominant 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 5 starts at PNC Park. The A's will counter with Tom Milone. While Milone has a winning record at 8-7, he also supports a not so strong 4.10 ERA. Most of his struggles have come on the road, where he's posted a 4.83 ERA in 10 starts. One of Milone's biggest struggles has been consistency. Oakland is just 1-6 in his last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance (8 innings 3 earned runs vs Royals last time out). Pittsburgh is 10-3 over the last 3 seasons following back-to-back one run losses and 7-1 in their last 8 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150! BET THE PIRATES! |
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07-09-13 | Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
5* MLB HIGH ROLLER BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-116)--- I'm confident the Cardinals will win tonight by at least 2 runs behind their ace Adam Wainwright, who is 11-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 18 starts. He's been even more dangerous at home, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.801 WHIP. Certainly have to like his chances against a struggling Astros club that has lost 8 of their last 10 (7 of the 8 by 2+ runs). Wainwright is 12-1 with a 1.44 ERA in 14 career starts vs Houston (9 wins by 2+). In his most recent start at home against the Astros, he tossed a complete game shutout in a 7-0 Cardinals victory. Now the key for any run line bet is to get plenty of offense. I believe the Cardinals will be able to provide just that. Housto will send out Bud Norris to make his 19th start of 2013. Norris has a decent 6-7 record with a 3.22 ERA for a team that's 25 games under .500, but he's not been good on the road. His ERA away from home is 5.02 and he's supporting a less than impressive 1.48 WHIP. In his most recent start at St Louis, he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits in just 5 1/3 innings of work. BET THE CARDINALS -1.5! |
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07-08-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 127 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* BLOCKBUSTER NL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH
---Milwaukee Brewers +127--- The Brewers should not be an underdog at home tonight, but it's not surprising to see Cincinnati's Homer Bailey overvalued after throwing a no hitter in his last start. Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 career starts vs Milwaukee. That 6.00 ERA is the worst against any team he's faced more than seven times. A lot of people will be quick to also jump on the Reds after seeing they are 5-1 vs the Brewers this season, but keep in mind all six of those game came in Cincinnati. This will be the first meeting in Milwaukee, where they went 4-2 vs the Reds last season. The big key that has me liking the Brewers is a red-hot Kyle Lohse, who is 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA over his last six starts and has a very respectable 3.18 ERA vs Cincinnati in his career (12 starts). Lohse has thrived in the role of home underdog in his career, he's 25-13 over his last 38 starts when he's listed as a home dog of +100 to +125. He's also 19-6 over his last 25 starts vs NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse. The Reds on the other hand are just 4-12 against the money line this season in road games after scoring 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. BET THE BREWERS! |
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07-07-13 | Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
5* A'S/ROYALS MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR
---A's/Royals OVER 9--- With two average starters on the mound and the wind blowing out towards left center at nearly 20 mph, the A's and Royals offenses should have no trouble combining for at least 10 runs this afternoon. BET THE OVER! |
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07-06-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -125 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB BLUE CHIP BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY
---Pittsburgh Pirates -125--- This is an unbelievable price to be catching the red-hot Pirates. Pittsburgh has baseball's best record and a huge edge on the mound today. It doesn't take much to get better than the Cubs Edwin Jackson, who is 4-10 with a 5.75 ERA over 16 starts. Jackson has really struggled at Wrigley Field, going a miserable 1-5 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.785 WHIP in 7 starts. In comparison, Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton is has a 2.50 ERA. While this will be just the 5th start of the season for Morton, he's clearly on top of his game. Jackson is just 5-16 in his last 21 starts following a team loss and the Cubs are just 11-29 in their last 40 games played on Saturday. The Pirates are 21-12 in their last 33 day games and 25-13 in their last 38 games vs division opponents (7-3 vs Chicago in 2013). BET PITTSBURGH! |
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07-05-13 | Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB OVER/UNDER BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH
---A's/Royals OVER 8.5--- With the wind expected to be blowing out to straight center at nearly 15 mph tonight, I look for the A's and Royals to have little trouble eclipsing the 8.5 total set for this game. Both of tonight's starters should struggle to pitch deep as they both are fly ball pitchers The Royals have scored an impressive 30 runs over their last four games and you have to like their chances of putting up a big number against Oakland's Tom Milone, who is 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road (9 starts) and comes in struggling to the tune of a 7.31 ERA and 1.750 WHIP over his last three. The A's will also be licking their chops offensively, as they face off against a struggling Wade Davis, who is 4-6 with a 5.55 ERA in 16 starts, 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA at home and a miserable 6.43 ERA over his last three. Davis has historically struggled against Oakland with a 6.75 ERA over three starts. BET THE OVER! |
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07-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -128 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
5* MLB 4TH OF JULY BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---St Louis Cardinals -128--- With last night's win over the Angels the Cardinals will be motivated to finish up their long 8-game road trip with a win to salvage a 4-4 split. They have just the starter on the mound to make sure that happens. Adam Wainwright is 11-5 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 17 starts and has certainly put himself into the Cy Young mix in 2013. He should have a clear edge against the Angels as this will be the first time he's faced Los Angeles in his career, meaning several players will have no idea what to expect when they step into the batters box. The same can't be said for Angels starter Joe Blanton, who has made seven career starts vs St Louis, including two last year. In those two starts he allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in 10 innings of work. Blanton is just 2-10 on the season and a miserable 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA at home (Angels are 1-7 in his home starts). Clearly getting some great value behind one of the best starters in the game! BET THE CARDINALS! |
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07-01-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -7 | Top | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* MONDAY MLB RUN LINE MASSACRE TOP PLAY
---Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+130)--- The Reds return home after a brutal 8-game road trip, where they went just 2-6 against the Diamondbacks, A's and Rangers. I fully expect them to play with a sense of urgency tonight. The Reds are a dominant 26-14 at Great American Ballpark and I like their chances of winning this one by at least two runs. Cincinnati will send out Bronson Arroyo against the Giants Mike Kickham. Arroyo is just 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA on the season, but at home he's pitched like a Cy Young contender. Arroyo is 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA over 10 starts at home and the Reds as a team are 8-2 in those games. Kickham will be making just his third big league start. His first two both came on the road at pitcher-friendly ballparks in LA and Oakland and neither went well. He allowed 4 runs on 4 hits in 2 and 1/3 innings vs the A's and 6 runs on 8 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings vs the Dodgers. Now he must pitch in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a motivated Cincinnati team. I'll gladly take my chances in this spot. BET THE REDS -1.5 (+130)! |
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06-30-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Tampa Bay Rays -119 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show |
5* TIGERS/RAYS MLB SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR
---Tampa Bay Rays -119--- With Tampa Bay at home there's clearly value on the Rays. They will send out red-hot Jeremy Hellickson vs the struggling Rick Porcello of Detroit. Hellickson allowed one hit over 7 scoreless in his last start and only gave up two earned over 6 innings prior to that. Both came against strong offensive teams in Toronto and Boston. Porcello has allowed 13 runs on 19 hits over his last two starts (10 and 1/3 innings). Look for the Rays to give Hellickson plenty of run-support. BET TAMPA BAY! |
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06-29-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Atlanta Braves -145 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
5* DIAMONDBACKS/BRAVES MLB BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Atlanta Braves -145--- Atlanta's Tim Hudson is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.963 WHIP at home this season and the Braves are a perfect 7-0 overall in those starts. Hudson is also an impressive 7-1 with a 1.88 ERA over 10 career starts (8-2 team record)against the Diamondbacks. Atlanta's offense should provide plenty of run-support, as Arizona counters with a struggling Ian Kennedy. In his last three starts, Kennedy has a 7.16 ERA and 1.592 WHIP. He's also just 1-3 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. Atlanta has won 3 of their last 4, while the Diamondbacks are just 1-4 over their last 5. BET THE BRAVES! |
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06-28-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY
---Giants/Rockies OVER 10.5--- Anytime the Giants send out Barry Zito on the road, there's a pretty good chance it's going to be a high-scoring affair. In 2013, Zito is 0-4 away from San Francisco with a dismal 11.28 ERA and 2.506 WHIP. To no surprise the total has gone over in 4 of his 5 road starts. With this game being played in Colorado, the chances of both teams putting up big numbers offensively are greatly increased. Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 4.92 ERA at home and lately when he faces the Giants at home things have gotten out of hand. In his last four home starts vs San Francisco he's allowed at least 4 earned runs in each start. Combined in these outings, he's allowed 23 runs on 28 hits in just 20 innings of work! Over is 19-8 in Rockies last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Everything points to a lot of runs on the scoreboard tonight! BET THE OVER 10.5! |
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06-27-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers +100 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
5* NL CENTRAL GRAND SLAM MONEY LINE GAME OF THE MOTH
---Milwaukee Brewers +100--- Even with last night's loss the Brewers are still a dominant 19-4 over their last 23 games vs the Cubs. Chicago is also still 7-games under .500 on the road and a mere 10-25 against their division foes. Milwaukee fits to extremely strong systems that have profited big over recent years. The first is the Brewers are 26-8 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.7, OPPONENT 4.4. The second is Matt Garza is 8-23 against the money line after giving up 2 or less earned runs in each of his last 2 starts. The average score was GARZA 4.0, OPPONENT 6.2 . BET THE BREWERS! |
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06-26-13 | Minnesota Twins -107 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 28 m | Show |
5* NL Blockbuster Blue Chip Grand Slam Top Play: Twins -107
The Miami Marlins have struggled against Left-handed starters all season. They are just 7-16 against southpaws and are averaging a mere 2.2 runs/game on a dismal .211 average. That certainly gives Minnesota starter Scott Diamond the upper-hand in this one. Diamond has struggled of late, but this is clearly a start where he should flourish. Even if Diamond struggles some, he should get plenty of run-support from his offense, as the Marlins send out Tom Koehler. In 8 starts Koehler is 1-5 with a 4.99 ERA and has gone 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA at home. BET THE TWINS! |
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06-25-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -141 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* Diamondbacks/Nationals MLB Blue Chip NL Game of the Month: Nationals -141
The Nationals have a clear advantage on the mound with Gio Gonzalez going up against the struggling Trevor Cahill. Gonzalez has caught fire of late. He's got a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The same can't be said for Cahill, who has struggled to the tune of a 8.70 ERA and 1.838 WHIP over his last three starts. Cahill is also just 2-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.396 WHIP over six road starts. Gonzalez is a dominant 33-12 over his last 25 starts with a money line of -125 to -175, while Arizona is a mere 9-18 against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 (just had their 4-game winning streak snapped last time out). BET THE NATIONALS! |
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06-24-13 | San Francisco Giants +103 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* Giants/Dodgers MLB Blue Chip Top Play: Giants +103
I like the Giants to continue their recent dominance over the Dodgers. San Francisco has taken five of six against LA this season and should be able to add to it with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP over his last three starts and is 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA over 8 career starts vs the Dodgers. In his two most recent starts (both at LA), Bumgarner has went eight scoreless in each, while giving up a combined six hits with no walks and 16 strike outs. The Dodgers will counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been a pleasant surprised so far. However, this is going to be the third time Ryu has started against the Giants this season and they have hit him fairly well in the first two. San Francisco has piled on 18 hits in just 12 1/3 innings of work against Ryu. Another key here is that the Giants are expected to get back both 3B Pablo Sandoval and LF Andres Torres, while the Dodgers continue to play without Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and SCott Van Slyke. BET THE GIANTS! |
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06-22-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
5* White Sox/Royals AL Central Blue Chip Top Play: Royals -130
I expect the Royals to put an end to their current three-game losing streak tonight behind a strong performance from starter Wade Davis, who has a strong 2.04 ERA and 1.302 WHIP over his last three starts. Davis shouldn't have any trouble keeping it going, as he is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.181 WHIP over his career against the White Sox. Davis is a sizzling 11-2 against the money line vs AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game over the last 3 seasons! BET THE ROYALS! |
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06-21-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -115 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
5* Rays/Yankees MLB Blue Chip Top Play: Yankees -115
The Yankees are showing big time value as a small home favorite against the Rays. New York is a dominant 20-7 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and are a perfect 4-0 in Phelps' last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Phelps has a clear edge on the mound against the Rays Roberto Hernandez, who is 4-7 with a 5.02 ERA over 13 starts and a dismal 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA over six road starts. BET THE YANKEES! |
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06-19-13 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* Cubs/Cards NL Central Blue Chip Game of the Week: OVER 8
The Cubs and Cardinals should have no trouble going over the total tonight. Chicago's Edwin Jackson is coming off a couple of strong starts, but he's still just 3-8 with a 5.40 ERA over 13 starts. Jackson has been less than impressive in his career vs the Cardinals. He's 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA. In his two most recent starts vs St Louis, he's allowed 13 runs on 14 hits in just 6 and 1/3 innings of work. St Louis will counter with Jake Westbrook, who will be making his second start since returning from the DL. Westbrook struggled in his first start back against a very poor Miami offense, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in just five innings of work. It's going to take another start or two before Westbrook regains his rhythm on the mound and can pitch deep into a game. Both offenses should have no trouble scoring at least 4 runs in this one. BET THE OVER! |
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06-17-13 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -121 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NL West Blue Chip Game of The Month: Giants -121
The Giants are showing exceptional value at home tonight. San Francisco is 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs a team with a road winning % less than .400. The Padres are a miserable 13-32 in their last 45 road games vs a team with a home winning % greater than .600. The Giants will send out Barry Zito against Edinson Volquez. Zito got rocked for 8 runs on 11 hits in just 4 and 2/3 innings of work in his last start at Pittsburgh. Don't let that last start scare you away. Zito is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.196 WHIP at home. San Francisco has won 7 of his 8 starts this season at AT&T Park. Volquez has struggled big time on the road, posting a 6.87 ERA and 1.827 WHIP in seven starts. Volquez has lost four straight starts at AT&T Park and over his career he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.694 WHIP vs San Francisco. BET THE GIANTS! |
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06-16-13 | Washington Nationals -118 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
5* Nationals/Indians MLB Blue Chip Top Play: Nationals -118
This is a clear value play on the Nationals with Stephen Strasburg returning to the mound off the DL. Strasburg got off to a bit of a slow start by his standards, which is why he's just 3-5. Don't let his record fool you into thinking he's not one of the best in the game. He was dominant in his last three starts, posting a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP. Hard to not like our chances against the Indians, who will send out Corey Kluber. Kluber has been slightly better at home, but he's still got a 4.30 ERA over 9 starts. BET THE NATIONALS! |
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06-15-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
5* Cardinals/Marlins MLB Blue Chip Top Play: Cardinals -1.5 (-115)
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Cardinals after losing Game 1 of the series last night. St Louis has a clear edge on the mound with Lance Lynn against Miami's Tom Koehler. Lynn is 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA over 13 starts. St Louis is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts, with all three wins coming by at least 2 runs. Lynn is 10-2 against the run line vs NL teams with a batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons, 17-6 when they play a team with a losing record and 12-1 vs NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game. BET THE CARDINALS! |
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06-14-13 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets -120 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
5* Cubs/Mets MLB Blue Chip Game of the Month: Mets -120
With the Cubs coming off a 14 inning marathon win against division rival Cincinnati at home, I look for Chicago to stumble in Game 1 of their series against the Mets Friday night. New York has clearly not been playing well of late, but this is a good spot to back them as a small home favorite. The Mets go into this one with Shaun Marcum on the mound. Marcum has struggled in 7 starts, going 0-5 with a 5.49 ERA, but he's pitched better of late. In his last start at home he allowed just 2 runs on four hits in seven innings vs a very good Atlanta offense. The Cubs offense is averaging just 3.2 runs/game on the road and have scored two or fewer in three of their last four. New York's offense hasn't been great, but they figure to have plenty of chances against the Cubs Edwin Jackson. IN five road starts this season, Jackson is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA. He's really struggled of late, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.723 WHIP over his last three. BET THE METS! |
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06-12-13 | Detroit Tigers -122 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
5* Tigers/Royals MLB Afternoon Grand Slam Top Play: Tigers -122
Anytime you can get the Tigers' Justin Verlander at this price it's worth some action. Verlander hasn't quite been himself early on, but he's still 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA. What really makes this a big play is the fact the Verlander is 15-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.126 WHIP over 24 career starts vs the Royals. The Royals will counter with James Shields. While Shields has an impressive 2.81 ERA over 13 starts, he's just 2-6 and the Royals are only 5-8 in his starts overall. In Shields last two starts vs the Tigers, he's allowed 7 runs on 19 hits and 4 walks over 15 and 2/3 innings of work. It's pretty clear the Tigers are comfortable against hitting against him. BET DETROIT! |
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06-10-13 | Atlanta Braves -128 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
5* Braves/Padres MLB Blue Chip Top Play: Braves -128
The Braves come in off back-to-back wins over the Dodgers and have won 7 of their last 9 games overall. There's little concern with Atlanta playing across country as they should be well adjusted to the time difference after their 3-game series with the Dodgers. The big reason I like the Braves in this one is starter Julio Teheran, who is coming off a brilliant performance in his last outing. Teheran flirted with a no hitter, but ended up allowing one hit over 8 scoreless innings. Teheran has a 1.69 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts. There was all kinds of hype surrounding Teheran coming out of sprint training, but he struggled early due to not being able to rack up strikeouts. He's struck out 20 batters over his last 14 and 2/3 innings! BET THE BRAVES! |
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06-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -120 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
5* Pirates/Cubs Blue Chip Top Play: Pirates -120
I look for the Pirates to finish off the Cubs on Sunday. Pittsburgh is without question the better team and have a clear edge on the mound with Jeff Locke going up against Edwin Jackson. Locke is 5-1 with a dominant 2.45 ERA and has been even better on the road with a 1.96 ERA. Jackson is 1-8 with a 6.29 ERA and has struggled at home with a 7.83 ERA. There's a good chance Pittsburgh wins in a blowout. BET THE PIRATES! |