Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-09 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 53 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
**9** MAC TOTALS DOMINATOR ***93% ANGLE*** The Central Michigan has been a machine this season as it is averaging 34.2 ppg but we do need to put an asterisk next to that average. The Chippewas have played some very poor defenses along the way and they got a very good draw in going 8-0 in the MAC. Of those eight games, they faced six defenses ranked 64th or worst in the nation and they took advantage. One of three other two games came against Buffalo, ranked 41st in the country and Central Michigan managed only 20 points. The other came in the last game against Northern Illinois, ranked 27th and the Chippewas did manage 45 points but that game came on their home field on Senior Day. The points scored on the season came against defenses allowing an average of 29.1 ppg and that is absolutely horrible competition. Ohio comes in allowing 21.4 ppg against teams averaging 23.7 ppg on offense so it has played above average and the defense is ranked 51st in the nation. The Bobcats allowed only three opponents to top 400 total yards. The Bobcats play physical, a reason they lead the MAC with a +14 turnover ratio and they have the best pass defense in the conference, intercepting 19 passes. It is not going to be as easy for Central Michigan on offense as people may be thinking. The easy schedule also led to Central Michigan leading the MAC in scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 ppg on the season. That came against teams averaging 23.1 ppg so it was still definitely above average. Ohio has picked things up on offense over its last three games as it has averaged 33.3 ppg over that span and the last two games were most impressive as the Bobcats scored 38 and 35 points against Northern Illinois and Temple respectively. Those two defenses are 27th and 35th in the nation but it needs to be pointed out that those two games came at home and that is a big difference. Ohio averaged only 22 ppg in its last three road games. This is the highest total Ohio has seen since facing Akron back on October 10th which was a similar number and that game finished with 26 points scored. The
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01-01-09 | Penn St. v. USC UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
7* New Years Day ROSE BOWL *Total Winner* This total opened anywhere between 45 and 46.5 and it is remaining steady which is surprising considering two of the best defenses will be on display in Pasadena. The output of the offenses is what is keeping this number steady but in a game such as this, it is the stop units that take center stage. Penn St. brings in a quick strike and powerful offense as it scored 45 or more points seven times but now that offense gets put to the test. The Nittany Lions struggled against the tougher defenses it played, namely Ohio St. and Iowa and even those two teams cannot compare to what the Trojans accomplished this season. USC allowed an NCAA best 7.8 ppg and 206.1 ypg and it allowed seven points or fewer eight times and three points or fewer six times. This is considered one of the best defenses we have ever seen. The Nittany Lions were 5th in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense, yielding 263.9 ypg and 12.4 ppg respectively. They held six teams to 10 points or fewer and did not allow more than 24 points in any game this season. USC put up good numbers on offense but the Pac Ten has very few good defenses and this unit is too inconsistent to expect a high output. Penn St. is 13-4 to the
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12-31-08 | Air Force v. Houston OVER 64 | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
8* New Years Eve 83.3% TOTAL DOMINATOR The Armed Forces Bowl is one of those rare occurrences where we see a second meeting between the teams. Air Force was supposed to play at Roberts Stadium back in September but due to the hurricane that hit Houston, the game was moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Falcons jumped ahead early and had to hold off a big Houston rally top pull off the upset. We saw 59 points and 914 yards of offense in that first meeting and both totals will be surpassed here. Houston relies on its offense to outscore the opposition as its defense has been worthless this year. The Falcons defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and it will be exposed again as Houston had 534 yards in the first meeting and has scored 42 points or more in four straight games, averaging 49 ppg over that span. Houston has allowed 37 points or more in four of its last six games and Air Force has the ability to score points especially against shoddy stop units. We have yet to see this system cash in as both the Motor City Bowl and Alamo Bowl came in below the number. History shows a lot of points in these early bowl games and that will be the case again here. Play the over with neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in minor bowl games that are played in December. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992 with the average points being scored at 75.6 ppg. This was a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. 8* Over Air Force Falcons/Houston Cougars
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12-29-08 | Northwestern v. Missouri OVER 66 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Alamo Bowl TOTAL DOMINATOR **75% YTD** This is a very high total but we should see nothing short of a shootout here. Northwestern had it best season since 1996 and that was largely in part due to a pretty solid defense. However, it has not seen anything like it will see tonight. Missouri once against started strong and faltered at the end, losing four of its final eight games. The defense was to blame as it gave up 46.5 ppg in those four setbacks including a season high 62 points put up by Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship.
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12-26-08 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Michigan OVER 64.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 15 m | Show |
***9*** Bowl Total of the Month *9-2 Run* Central Michigan had a very solid season but it failed to win the MAC, or even its division, so it was definitely a disappointment. An 8-4 record is nothing to sneeze at but quite honestly, it isn
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12-23-08 | TCU v. Boise St UNDER 47 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
7* Poinsettia Bowl 76.5% TOTAL DOMINATOR I have this total projected in the high 30
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11-22-08 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma OVER 75.5 | Top | 21-65 | Win | 100 | 97 h 45 m | Show |
**9** NCAA Total of the Year (86.7% YTD)** When looking at totals, I look at yards both gained and allowed and yards per point rather than just points scored and allowed. In this case, the yardage numbers are through the roof. The combined total of Oklahoma and Texas Tech is 1,813 yards on average per game both gained and allowed. The average across the country is in the vicinity of a low of 1,200 yards with an average of 1,451. The 350 difference shows how potent these teams are on offense since that is where the majority of yards come from (1,116.1 ypg).
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11-01-08 | Florida v. Georgia UNDER 56.5 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 5 m | Show |
**7** NCAA Total of the Week (90.9% YTD)** This is always one of the more anticipated games in the SEC every year and this season is no exception. This winner of this contest has full control in the SEC East and will likely head to the SEC Championship game in December. What does that mean here? We should see a game with not many chances being taken and both teams looking to control the ball and keep the opposing offenses off the field. We catch some great value in this total based on recent games and last season
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10-28-08 | Buffalo U v. Ohio UNDER 51 | 32-19 | Push | 0 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
**5** Tuesday Special Totals BEST BET** Last week, Ohio and Temple easily stayed under the posted number and that number closed at 40. Now the Bobcats have a total of 50 this Tuesday which seems like way to big of a jump for a team that is struggling badly on offense. Ohio scored just 10 points against the Owls and it is averaging just 18 ppg in its seven games against other FBS teams. The Bobcats are 68th in the country in total offense and things are getting worse as another star on offense, this time tight end Andrew Mooney, was lost for the season.
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10-21-08 | Ohio v. Temple UNDER 43 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
**5** Tuesday Total Best Bet (85.7% YTD)** Points will be at a premium tonight as both Ohio and Temple have been pretty offensively challenged. Ohio has played the majority of its games on the road and has averaged only 17.6 ppg while Temple, it only two home games, has averaged 6.0 ppg. The other side of the ball is where the strengths are. Defensively the Owls are fifth overall in the MAC in total defense, giving up 363.7 ypg and are third in scoring defense, giving up only 19.3 ppg overall. Ohio isn
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10-17-08 | Hawaii v. Boise St UNDER 52 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
**5** Friday Totals BEST BET (83.3% YTD)** This total has dropped 24 points from last season (75.5 to 51.5) and while that may seem severe, it is for good reason. Neither team is as explosive as years past when the average score was 78.3 ppg the past six meetings. While both teams have shown the ability to put points on the board, neither has been consistent enough, especially against FBS teams. Hawaii is averaging 17.2 ppg in five FBS games while Boise St. is averaging 29.8 ppg in its four FBS games.
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10-04-08 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State OVER 66 | Top | 58-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show |
**3** NCAA Total of the Month Shootout** Texas Tech gets all of the press about its high powered offense and rightfully so. Kansas St. however has been moving the ball as well as it is ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense. Granted one of those games came against Montana St. but the Wildcats put up 481 yards in that game so that output does not skew the overall average. They put up 471 yards against North Texas and 470 yards against UL-Lafayette and while neither of those defenses are very good, the Red Raiders defense is 61st against a schedule ranked 129th.
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10-03-08 | Cincinnati U v. Marshall UNDER 50.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
**79% Friday TV **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** I was expecting a total in the mid-forties for this game and we catch a much higher number than that here. The under was the play in the in the anticipated number so this makes it even stronger. I like both defenses in this matchup and not just because of that prior numbers they have put up. Marshall has one bad game against Wisconsin but other than that it has been solid and the same goes for Cincinnati sans the Oklahoma game. The big reason here is because of the opposing quarterbacks.
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10-01-08 | Louisiana Tech v. Boise St OVER 56 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
**2.5** NCAA Total of the Week (4-0 YTD)** We should be some big offensive numbers on Wednesday between these two teams. Boise St. is up to its old tricks of putting together big offense as it is averaging 448.7 ypg which is good for 19th in the nation. The Broncos are averaging 35.3 ppg which is 25th in the country. This offense is actually down from last season but that is because of the schedule that has gotten harder each week. It takes a step down in the WAC opener and that should enable the offense to become even more potent.
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09-27-08 | Houston v. East Carolina OVER 56.5 | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
**84% **2.5** NCAA Total of the Week** Houston enters this game off a tough loss to Colorado St. in a game it really should have won. The Cougars lost despite outgaining the Rams 473-422 but they were hurt by four turnovers including three in their last five possessions. It was another big offensive effort that did no good with a second straight three-point setback. The big yards are nothing new as Houston is 8th in the country in total offense, averaging 526.3 ypg on the season through four games. Quarterback Case Keenum is first in the country in total offense
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09-19-08 | Baylor v. U Connecticut OVER 51 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show | |
**71.2% Friday Night Lights **2** Total** Connecticut has been solid on defense again this season but the level of competition and other factors have helped out with that. The Huskies opened the season with a win against Hofstra, allowing just 170 total yards, so that skews things right away. Next up was a 12-9 win at Temple but that game was played in miserable weather which was very beneficial to both defenses. Connecticut then took out Virginia last Saturday but the Cavaliers have a weak offense again after finishing 101st in total offense a season ago.
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09-11-08 | North Carolina v. Rutgers OVER 44 | Top | 44-12 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
**Thursday NCAA **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** At first glance, Rutgers looks like the play here following a horrible offensive showing against Fresno St. in the opener. However, after looking through the gamebook, the offense was not as bad as the seven points scored indicates. The Scarlet Knights put up a very solid 369 total yards but were hurt by two missed field goals and two failed fourth down conversation attempts, one coming from the Fresno St. three-yard line. There should have been more points on the board.
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