This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Browns did not come through for us last Sunday as a 14-14 tie was opened up in the fourth quarter with 21 unanswered points from the Saints with Taysom Hill nearly taking the game over himself. Cleveland was coming off a bye week following a home loss against the Chargers, one of the top defenses in the league but the Browns could not take advantage facing one of the worst defenses despite Jameis Winston throwing for 395 yards but they could not get the balance as they rushed for only 66 yards. It will not be easier here but the spot is a great one as it is basically the same one Pittsburgh was in last week. Cleveland has some skewed metrics on offense based on their quarterback change and the return of running back Nick Chubb but we love the home advantage with the value on a team that is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. The Steelers were able to cash for us last week against Baltimore as they pulled off the upset with an 18-16 win, kicking six field goals against one of the worst defenses at home. Now they hit the road where they are also 4-1 but in a spot where they are overvalued in a divisional game coming off a massive win to set up the short week letdown. The Pittsburgh offense was very average again last week barely eclipsing 300 yards and face a tougher defense this week on the road with the season on the line for the Browns. While Cleveland has been unlucky, the Steelers are ranked No. 3 in the Luck Ratings and despite 90 percent of the money coming in on the Steelers, the line has not moved. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Eastern Michigan has had three chances to become bowl eligible in its last three games and failed to do so in any of those. Losses to Akron and Toledo came by a total of five points before getting blown out at Ohio last Wednesday as the Eagles scored a touchdown on their fourth possession but the offense was held to just 151 yards the rest of the game. At 5-5, Eastern Michigan has to win one of its final two games and this is the spot with it being their last home game and the finale being at Western Michigan. The metrics with Buffalo are very similar but the situational edge of this being their last home game, where they are 3-2, the two losses coming against Toledo and Miami Ohio. Buffalo has won two straight games to become bowl eligible after a 3-9 season last year. Three of the Bulls four losses have been by 31 points or more while two of the four conference wins have been by three points including the latest one at home against 3-7 Ball St. Buffalo is No. 4 in the Luck Ratings so it has been one of the most fortunate teams in the country and the line does not take this criteria into consideration. The Buffalo offense is shaky on a down-to-down basis as it is ranked No. 113 in success rate and No. 97 in EPA/Play and while explosive runs have been its strength with the Bulls top 30 in explosive rush rate on the year, but this is the strength of the Eastern Michigan defense. We have seen the number come down from opening and we are at the point where a win is a likely cover at most places for the Eagles. 10* (110) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Do we go public or do we go contrarian? The Cowboys are done this season obviously and no one wants a part of them after four straight losses and four straight non-covers and this is the time to jump on board in this stand alone game. Dallas is catching a touchdown and it should get to 7.5 as the juice is moving with the public going to hammer Houston with no Dak Prescott playing. We have seen a 9.5-point line swing and no quarterback is worth that, especially against a team that continues to be overhyped. Houston has dropped two straight games to fall to 6-4 following a 26-23 loss against Detroit and while it is a desperate team at this point, no six-win team should be laying this number on one the road. C.J. Stroud was the story of last season but he has regressed considerably, as he has tossed more interceptions already than he threw all of last season and has posted one passer rating of more that 64.2 in his last four games. He is facing a defense that has struggled all season but he is not with this number. We are not sure what will happen with head coach Mike McCarthy but chances are he will not be let go until the end of the season and apparently the locker room is still behind him despite media reports. We would love to wait and take them on Thanksgiving against the Giants but we have to grab them here before they go to Washington next week. This is the ugly play but we will go against the public money against a team that is just No. 14 in Net EPA. 10* (476) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Everybody is waiting for Cincinnati to turn the corner but we just do not see it happening. Teams starting 0-3 and rarely make the playoffs happens for a reason because there are flaws and the Bengals have many. Quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level with a 108.1 passer rating thanks to throwing 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions which has put Cincinnati No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA. They cannot run the ball as they are No. 29 in rushing offense and No. 26 in Rushing EPA and a one dimensional offense will not get it done here. They face one of the best defenses in the NFL as the Chargers are No. 2 in Defensive EPA including No. 2 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. They lead the league in points allowed at 13.1 ppg. Another flaw is the Bengals defense which has been a liability all season. They are ranked No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have been horrible against the run and pass and have had only two good efforts while came against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones and those two make any bad defense look good. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA and they have generated their three highest offensive outputs in their last five games. While Burrow has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 103.2 passer rating even though he has just 11 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. 10* (472) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. Revenge is an angle we like to play in certain situations but we are not playing Buffalo because of that here. The Bills lost in the playoffs last season 27-24 so all of the talk is that the Bills will be out for revenge. If Buffalo had won that playoff game, would they play any less hard this week? We know the answer to that. Despite the records, Buffalo is the better team when looking at the numbers and not the wins and that is what matters. The Bills are ranked No. 3 in Offensive EPA and while they will be down Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they still have Josh Allen and a running game that is ranked No. 2 in Rushing EPA. Kansas City moved to 9-0 after a 16-14 win over Denver thanks to a last second blocked field goal. This has been the story of the Chiefs all season as seven of their nine wins have been decided by single digits and they have been the beneficiary of some questionable calls going their way. We are not crying conspiracy but being the No. 1 ranked team in Luck Ratings does say something. The Chiefs have failed to cover three straight games, all of which they were favored by at least a touchdown and now the role is reversed and for very good reason. This is part of the reason 60 percent of the money is on Kansas City and while we know the numbers of how good Kansas City is an underdog, covering 17 of its last 18 games when getting points, we are going against that this week. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The advanced line was Green Bay -2.5 and following the Chicago disaster against New England on Sunday, the line moved up to 6 and then hit 6.5 and as of Wednesday, it came back down to 5.5 despite 69 percent of the money on the Packers and is still 5.5 despite the money moving to 72 percent on Friday. Caleb Williams was awful against the Patriots as he was constantly under pressure, went 16-30 for 120 yards and was sacked nine times. This was in large part due to both starting tackles being out. Both Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones returned to practice on Wednesday and were full participants on Friday. Unlike what many may think, this is not the worst offense in the NFL as the Bears are No. 24 in Offensive EPA, certainly not great but not what the theory is. The fact that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired can give this offense a spark as well. The Packers are coming off their bye following a loss to the Lions where Jordan Love was hampered by a groin injury so the rest is big for that but he could still not be 100 percent. Overall, the Packers are No. 14 in Offensive EPA which is nothing spectacular and they will face an underrated Bears defense. Chicago is No. 5 in Defensive EPA including No. 1 in the NFL in Passing EPA. This is an overreaction line and we are going against it and we still have this number at 3 and in a divisional game, we will grab the big home underdog. 10* (452) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. New Orleans put together its best effort since September 15 when it beat Dallas 44-19 but even that win is not looking good anymore as the Saints defeated division rival Atlanta 20-17 last week. It coincided with the firing of head coach Dennis Allen as the players rose to the occasion which is a typical reaction when a coach gets let go. We figure that is where it ends however. Even though they defeated the Falcons, the Saints were outgained 468-365 and that was their second most yards allowed and this comes as no surprise as the unit has been horrible, allowing 385.6 ypg which is No. 28 in the NFL. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 427.1 ypg in their other eight games which would be by far the worst in the league. Cleveland certainly does not bring a potent offense into this one but Jameis Winston gave them some life in his first start against Baltimore which also has one of the worst defenses in the league. Sure, he struggled mightily in his next start but that was against the Chargers which are ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA so we expect another big game from him as well as running back Nick Chubb as he faces the No. 31 ranked team in Defensive Rushing EPA. Defensively, Cleveland is no where near where they were last season but we like them against the Saints offense that is averaging 17 ppg in their last eight games. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are atop the AFC North at 7-2 and admittedly, have not played a tough schedule in doing so as it is ranked No. 29 but good teams with those games and Pittsburgh has done just that. Even with the schedule disparity, we have this one as a pickem. This is the classic game of strength against strength as Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in Offensive EPA but has had a lot of success against some poor defenses and while the Ravens did tear apart a very strong Denver defense, that was at home in the first game following their loss against the Browns. They now face a Steelers defense that is No. 7 in Defensive EPA and they have allowed 20 points or less in seven of their nine games. They did allow 27 points against Indianapolis and Washington but those were both away from home. The Pittsburgh offense was not horrible with Justin Fields at quarterback and overall it is No. 13 in Offensive EPA but it has made a big surge with Russell Wilson. They have averaged 30.3 ppg in his three starts and he has posted a 105.9 passer rating and while it is a small sample size, it is his highest rating since 2019-20. While we will not quite call the Steelers offense a strength, they are going against one of the worst defenses in Baltimore which would normally be an oxymoron but not this season as the Ravens are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. We grab the very favorable line in what we think is the better all around team. 10* (458) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Kansas came into the season as a contender in the Big 12 Conference and following an opening win over Lindenwood, the Jayhawks dropped five straight games but they have come back to life. Those losses during that streak were compounded by mistakes as every game could have gone the other way if those games were cleaner. Kansas has gone 2-1 in its last three games including an upset against Iowa St. last week and that lone defeat came by two points at rival Kansas St. One set of our power ratings calls for Kansas to be a field goal favorite while the low favorite number for BYU has put the majority of the action on the Cougars. Kansas is ranked No. 134 in the Luck Ratings, making them the unluckiest team in the country. Conversely, BYU is the luckiest team in the country as it is ranked No. 1 in those ratings following another fortunate victory over Utah in the Holy War as it kicked a field goal as time expired. This came after another last second win over Oklahoma St. two games prior and this is going to catch up. They remain one of only four undefeated teams in the country yet are ranked just No. 19 in the latest Sagarin Ratings. 10* (363) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. It has been an interesting run for Wake Forest as over its last eight games, it has gone 0-5 at home and 3-0 on the road. The three wins were by a total of 10 points so it has not been overly dominating but this Tobacco Road rivalry should keep the close games going as we do not need the win with this inflated line. A win would be ideal for them though as they need to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible and with a game at Miami on deck, this is a must. The Demon Deacons are right there with North Carolina in most of the metrics which does not correlate with the line. North Carolina was riding a four-game losing streak to fall under .500 on the season but it has responded with a pair of wins on the road at Virginia and Florida St. to get back over .500 and one win away from bowl eligibility with all three remaining games being winnable. That being said, this is the fourth time laying double digits, and the first since September, and the Tar Heels have gone 0-3 ATS in the first three. Actually, going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games laying double digits. As mentioned, the rivalry has been intense with the last four meetings decided by six points or less. 10* (335) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our SEC Game of the Year. This is a playoff elimination game most likely as a three-loss Georgia team will be out while a two-loss Tennessee team will be on the bubble. This is the worst version of the Bulldogs we have seen in quite some time no thanks to an offense that is ranked No. 50 overall with an offensive line that has regressed after coming into the season as the No. 1 unit in the country. This has led quarterback Carson Beck being put into some tough situations and he has tossed nine interceptions in his last four games. It will not get any easier here for the Bulldogs that are now negative in points and yardage. Tennessee had the bad loss at Arkansas where it fell in the final minute 19-14 but has responded with four straight wins including the big victory over Alabama. Overall, the Volunteers have played a schedule ranked No. 54 which is not helping their chances should they lose here but winning outright, which has not happened here since 2016, is far from out of the question. Tennessee has the No. 2 ranked EPA defense and has allowed 19 points or less in every game. We have this number at 4 and a field goal game either way seems fitting. 10* (379) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. The Nebraska offense has taken a turn for the worst as it has scored 20 points or less in four straight games and it was time for a change. Head coach Matt Rhule fired offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and hired Dana Holgorsen from outside the program to call the plays which is a rarity. The Husker have lost three straight games but two of those were against Indiana and Ohio St. on the road but they gave the Buckeyes all they could handle in a four-point loss. This change can rejuvenate this offense while quarterback Dylan Raiola has been listed as probable. Defensively, the Huskers are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. Things are not very good as USC either as the Trojans fell back under .500 to 4-5 following a loss at Washington. Their offense has not been as bad as that of Nebraska of late but they are making a change at quarterback as Miller Moss has been benched and Jayden Maiava will make his first start after seeing minimal action. The offense has not been a problem as the defense comes in No. 71 in yards allowed so this is exactly what Nebraska needs. This is another game with an overreaction line, in this case, because it is USC. 10* (401) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Syracuse fell to 6-3 following a six-point loss at Boston College after a comeback win in overtime against Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Two of their three losses have been by one possession with the exception being a blowout at Pittsburgh no thanks to three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Orange are back on the road where they are catching a huge number that we have capped at 4 and there has been huge line movement with this one going from 6.5 to 9.5. It can be argued that Syracuse is at a disadvantage in that they are travelling across the country but they have already gone to Las Vegas and won while California is making the same trip this week after its game at Wake Forest. Syracuse has outgained eight of nine opponents. California was riding a four-game losing streak before posting back-to-back wins over Oregon St. and Wake Forest to get back over .500 at 5-4. The Golden Bears have been unlucky with some close losses which we do not like to fade but they are ranked 12 spots below the Orange in Net EPA by playing identical ranked schedules which offsets the narrow losses. 10* (371) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Hawaii has won six games only once since 2020 but it is on pace to do it this season with wins in its final two games, both against losing teams. The Warriors are 4-6 with three of those losses coming by a combined eight points against teams much better than what they are facing here. They nearly pulled off an upset at home against UNLV last week, losing by just two points as a 12-point underdog and while a win there would have made things a lot easier, a fully focused Warriors will be fine as they have outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards this season. Utah St. is coming off a 21-point loss at Washington St. last week which will prevent them from going to a bowl game as it fell to 2-7. One of those wins came against Robert Morris of the FCS and the other was a two-point victory against Wyoming which will also not be going bowling. The Aggies offense has actually been pretty decent but their defense has held them back as they are ranked No. 123 in Defensive Efficiency while allowing the second most yards in the nation. With nothing to play for after a deflating loss, playing spoiler will not be enough against a motivated Hawaii team 10* (373) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Navy opened the season 6-0 but then got destroyed against Notre Dame and the hangover stuck with a loss in its next game at Rice by 14 points as a 13-point favorite. The Midshipmen rebounded last week with a 21-point road win at South Florida and this game begins a tough three-game stretch to close the season. They close at resurgent East Carolina and at Army making this their final home game of the season even if they win out and make the AAC Championship as it would likely be a road game at Army. Navy is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as home underdogs against winning teams. Tulane is sitting ahead of Navy in the ACC by one game as it is 6-0 while also riding a seven-game winning streak. While the Green Wave have dominated most of the conference games, none have been against a team with a winning AAC record. They bring in a strong offense but Navy has held seven of nine opponents to 24 points or less and its own offense can take control as it is ranked No. 5 in Rushing Offense. Overall, Tulane has played a schedule ranked No. 91 which has led to its No. 35 ranking in Offensive EPA, which is just ahead of the Midshipmen which are No. 38. 10* (346) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is obviously a situational play against Ohio St. which comes in on a three-game winning streak following its lone loss of the season at Oregon by one point. The Buckeyes are coming off a win over Purdue 45-0 as a 37-point favorite at home and now they are on the road against a much better team than the Boilermakers and just laying a touchdown less. Ohio St. has two lookahead games against undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan and unlikely to go all out while going vanilla should they build somewhat of a significant lead. Over the last five years, there have been 13 road favorites of more than four touchdowns and they are 3-10 ATS. It has been an interesting season for Northwestern as it had no campus stadium this year with Ryan Field under renovations so it played its first five home games at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium with a capacity of just over 12,000 and finishes its home schedule with a game at Wrigley Field for this one and then closes at Soldier Field against Illinois. The Wildcats have willed themselves to a 4-5 record so it will have to somehow win here or against Michigan and then beat Illinois with this scenario unlikely but we will see their best effort against a team going through the motions. 10* (350) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Utah is coming off a tough loss against BYU in the Holy War as it lost on a field goal with no time left to fall to 4-5 on the season. It could be a tough recovery spot but this team will be ready behind head coach Kyle Wittingham. The Utes have gone through another brutal season on offense with injuries but their defense has kept things close with three straight losses by one possession. That defense is ranked top 15 overall and in points allowed and the Utes are now catching their first double-digit underdog line in over six years. The reason is because it is Colorado and Deion Sanders who were the talk of college football last season before an epic collapse but they are back. The Buffaloes have won three straight games to improve to 7-2 and are in line to face BYU in the Big 12 Championship with Kansas and Oklahoma St. remaining in the regular season. Colorado is now laying double digits for the first time this season as we are seeing an overreaction line that has gone up. The Buffaloes are No. 24 in the Luck Ratings while Utah is No. 129 so a reversal of fortunes would not be surprising. We have this one capped at 6. 10* (391) Utah Utes

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. The Border War and the battle for the Bronze Boot take place on Friday with a lot more at stake for Colorado St. but that hardly means they are going to win and win by margin. The Rams are 4-0 in the Mountain West Conference and trail Boise St. by a half-game and with no meeting between the two, Colorado St. has a relatively easy path to the MWC Championship. Three of the four wins have come by 11 points or less and with the Rams having covered six straight games, there is value the other way. Based on our two sets of power rankings, the line should be 7. Colorado St. is ranked No. 103 in Net EPA which is nothing special and it has been very fortunate, ranked No. 13 in the Luck Rankings. It has been a tough first season for head coach Jay Sawvel and his Wyoming team but the Cowboys have been playing a lot better since their 0-4 start. While they have gone just 2-3 since then and will miss out on a bowl game, all three losses were by 10 points or less including two by a combined five points. They have played a tougher schedule while their Net EPA ranking is just 11 spots behind the Rams and Wyoming has been one of the most unluckiest teams in the country ,ranking No. 119. While there is no bowl game to play for, there is a lot at stake for these Wyoming players. 10* (317) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Washington has been the early pleasant surprise as they are 7-3 but it has been an inconsistent stretch, beating the Bears on the Hail Mary, sneaking by the Giants and then losing to Pittsburgh last week. Their best win is against Arizona and has not defeated another team with a winning record. Maybe it took some time for teams to figure them out but now comes another test like they had in Baltimore. The Eagles got off to a slow start but have won five straight games to improve to 7-2 with one of those losses coming against Atlanta with 34 seconds remaining. Now back home following a blowout win over Dallas on the road, this is just their second home game since mid-October. The Washington offense is still ranked No. 2 in Offensive EPA including No. 2 in Dropback Rate but just No. 7 in Dropback success rate. All good still but the defense is the concern as the Commanders have been exposed against above average offenses. They are No. 24 in Defensive EPA and that is with allowing point totals of 15, 7, 13, 14 and 18. Four of those came against the Giants, Browns, Panthers and Bears, all of which are No. 23 or worse in offense. The one exception was against Arizona which is top ten and now comes a test against the Eagles which have completely turned their offense around since getting healthy. They have averaged 31.8 ppg over their last four games and despite all the big names on the injury list, all have been full participants in practice. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. It really can be amazing what a team can do when a head coach is fired. Most times, it means nothing as the team stinks but in some instances, the players gave up on their coach for whatever reason and get rejuvenated when there is a replacement. The latter looks to be the case for East Carolina as it has rolled in its two games since head coach Mike Houston was fired as it defeated Temple and Florida Atlantic by 22 and 35 points respectively sandwiched around a bye week. Two bad teams for sure but the run of facing horrible opposition continues. The Pirates came into the season as contenders in the AAC but bad losses to Charlotte and Army on the road put them at 3-4 overall and that did Houston in. The offense has erupted for their two highest point totals of the season thanks to a quarterback chance and that run should continue facing one of the worst defenses in the country. Tulsa is 3-6 so it has to win out to become bowl eligible and that simply will noy happen. The Golden Hurricane have defeated Northwestern St. of the FCS, a bad Louisiana Tech team by just three points and UTSA by one point after the Roadrunners somehow blew a 42-17 second half lead. That has been their only conference win while three of the conference losses have come by 32, 42 and 38 points. This is the third time they have been double-digit underdogs and they were blown out in the first two. As mentioned, the defense is mostly to blame as Tulsa is dead last in the country in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (315) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Ohio has won two straight games to become bowl eligible for a third straight season. The Bobcats all three losses have come on the road and they come in a perfect 4-0 at home but have now become overvalued as they were favored by 8 and 3.5 points over Akron and Buffalo in their two other MAC home games. They have scored the most points of the season in their last two games, putting up 47 and 41 points but do have a tougher matchup here. Ohio is ranked No. 87 in Offensive EPA which has come against a schedule ranked No. 131 and are being asked to lay a big number, only the second time they have put down double digits against a team from the FBS, the first against 0-9 Kent St. Eastern Michigan is coming off a tough one point loss against Toledo as it missed a two-point conversion on the final play of the game, keeping it still one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have put together solid season as their 5-4 record is backed up by having outgained seven of their nine opponents. We like the offense in this spot as the Eagles run an up-tempo style so more possessions and more plays gives them the opportunity always be in the game. They have covered seven of nine games and Eastern Michigan has been money in these spots when facing winning MAC teams as it is 13-2 ATS when getting four or more points. 10* (309) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Rams picked up another huge win last week over Seattle and this is a team to be on the lookout for as we said last week. With the Cardinals and 49ers winning Sunday, this game is big to keep pace in the NFC West. They are 4-4 in a wide open division and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points but bring in the momentum with three straight wins and having arguably the hottest quarterback in the league. The Dolphins had their chance last week against Buffalo but found another way to lose to drop to 2-6 and the season is likely done. With the Bills winning again, Miami is five games back in the AFC East and the Wild Card situation is bleak. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought the offense back up with 27 points scored the last two weeks but the defense has regressed, now sitting No. 28 in Defensive DVOA. Now facing a healthy Rams offense, we give them no shot on the road. 10* (286) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We won with the Buccaneers last week at Kansas City as they were able to stay within the number in an overtime loss, their third straight. This is the spot to fade as Tampa Bay is playing on a short week against a team off a bye and bringing their best player back. Give credit to Baker Mayfield who has posted a 94 passer rating or higher in his last five games, the last two with a limited receiving corps but now faces a real defense that has been undervalued. San Francisco is just 4-4 but easily the best .500 team in football as they are ranked No. 5, ahead of seven teams with six or more wins. The premier of Christian McCaffery is finally here and the way they are bringing him in now is smart and he can be a game changer. They are top seven in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA and still have a shot for the No. 1 spot in what is a weak NFC. We do not prefer to lay a big number on the road but this the exception. 10* (273) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our Big 12 Game of the Month. This was expected to be a one sided game entering the season but it has completely reversed with BYU now being one of only four remaining undefeated teams in the country. We have played against the Cougars on numerous occasions and they continue to cover, now being 7-1 against the number on the season. Now, the Holy War is back for the first time since 2021 and for the first time in a Big 12 Conference game. The Cougars are at the top with a 5-0 record with only one remaining game against a team with a winning record so the ride looks good but this is arguably the toughest. Utah came in not only as a Big 12 Conference favorite but as a CFP contender. The Utes opened 4-0 nut have lost four straight games and sit 1-4 in the conference with all four losses being a favorite. Now they come in as an underdog for the first time this season and in their biggest game of the year. Utah is on the opposite side of the ATS streak and have all of the value in a rivalry game that also has meaning for a bowl game as they have to win two of their final four to become bowl eligible. 10* (146) Utah Utes

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arizona St. is coming off a blowout win at Oklahoma St. last week, recovering from a loss at Cincinnati where it scored a season low 14 points and it is now back home for the first time in a month laying a short number. The win over the Cowboys got the Sun Devils bowl eligible but more importantly got them to 3-2 in the Big 12 which keeps them in the race for a chance at the title game which is now between eight teams with this being the first of three straight against teams they can leapfrog. UCF snapped a five-game losing streak with a 44-point win over Arizona, allowing a season low 14 points against an FBS team. The Knights have gone through some adversity with a bunch of the roster already out in the transfer portal but remain in the mix for a bowl game. Coming off that win, this is the time to go against as they hit the road after two straight home games and getting a short number. They need to win two of their last three games but coming off their best offensive performance of the season and now facing a top 25 defense, this is not one of those. 10* (152) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our AAC Game of the Month. We played against Memphis last week as it was favored on the road at UTSA by a touchdown and lost by eight points to fall to 7-2 yet has been one of the most overpriced teams in the country. The Tigers have failed to cover three straight and five of their last six games which includes cover losses in all three of their home games where they were laying double digits. This is now a buy low spot with a potent offense as we have them favored by close to two touchdowns in both sets of power rankings. The issue has been the defense as the Tigers are No. 86 in Offensive EPA with their last three games having bad matchups but now have a good one on their favor. Rice came into the season as an upper half AAC team but the Owls had a rough stretch where it lost five of six games that ultimately led to the firing of head coach Mike Bloomgren following a loss at Connecticut. The firing gave the Owls a charge as they responded with a 24-10 win over Navy, which was in a bad spot coming off a blowout loss against Notre Dame, to keep their bowl hopes alive. At 3-6, Rice needs to win out and we just do not see that panning out with its offense that is No. 113 in EPA and has scored more than 24 points only once against a team from the FBS, a 29-point effort at home against UTSA. The Owls are winless on the road at 0-4 while averaging only 10.3 ppg. 10* (118) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens bounced back from their loss against the Browns with a rollover against Denver and are laying a huge number in a divisional game. They were the spot last week but are now in the opposite position this week with the number. Baltimore remains No. 2 in Net DVOA with the offense that is No. 1 but have to be concerned about the defense that is No. 14 in DVOA, one of only two teams in the NFL that is top ten overall but outside the top ten in defense. The Bengals opened the season with a bad loss against New England which started a 0-3 start but they have won three of their last four games to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Cincinnati is only a game out of the final Wild Card spot along with three other teams and this is the game it needs with two of the next three on the road as well. All of the MVP talk is around Lamar Jackson but Joe Borrow has been quietly under the radar with a 108.1 passer rating which is third in the league thanks to 20 touchdowns which is tied foe second. We played against Baltimore two weeks ago against Cleveland which was a stupid line and we have another one here. 10* (109) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We played on East Carolina two weeks ago, its first game after the firing of head coach Mike Houston and it rolled over Temple. Playing on teams making a coaching change has usually been a great spot as it provides a spark which can totally turn around a season. The Pirates came in as a contender in the AAC but at 2-2, they are too far back with Army and Tulane being undefeated yet are still in line to get back to a bowl game following their 2-10 season from last year. They close the season with games against North Texas on the road and Navy at home so this game long with a game at Tulsa next week are needed wins. South Florida is coming off a 23-point win over Florida Atlantic which was the third straight loss for the Owls and now have to win out to become bowl eligible. We do not see it happening even though the final three games are winnable with this one being the biggest test. Florida Atlantic is playing on a short week coming off its homecoming game last Friday and has fallen to No. 114 in Offensive EPA against a schedule that is No. 101 in the country. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and while the loss at Michigan St. is not looking as bad, defeated to UTSA and Connecticut were both blowouts and that is what we are expecting again here. 10* (112) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Kansas City is the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and it has now won 13 straight games going back to last season but it has been far from a domination as the Chiefs have outgained their opponents by only 45 ypg over this stretch. It is hard to step in front of an undefeated train but we have to here as the number has gotten to the price of being unplayable if you are a Chiefs backer as they came into the week the No. 1 ranked team in the Luck Ratings. It is hard for a team to win by margin when they are ranked only No. 10 in both Offensive DVOA and Offensive EPA as Patrick Mahomes has done just enough to get by with his 84.9 passer rating coming in tenth lowest among qualified starters and it is the lowest of his career. Additionally, he is one of only four quarterbacks in this group that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. His 23 interceptions in the regular season since the start of last year are the most of any quarterback in the NFL. Tampa Bay suffered a pair of devastating losses two weeks ago with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going out against Baltimore and both missed last week in the loss against Atlanta. They nearly made it back from a big deficit against the Falcons but were unable to connect on the winning score in the final seconds. While the offense is shorthanded, it is the defense that has brought this team success as the Buccaneers have allowed 27 points or less in 28 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL in nearly 20 years since Baltimore did so back in 2005. Defenses keeping opponents at bay are obviously huge with the success but even more so when getting a big number like this. We are also seeing a reverse line move with 86 percent of the money on Kansas City yet the number has gone the other way. 10* (477) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Minnesota was the early season surprise in the league as it opened 5-0 straight up and against the number but has dropped its last two games, blowing a 10-0 lead to Detroit and losing to the Rams last Thursday night 30-20. The extended rest is big for the Vikings which need to win to keep pace in the NFC North with Detroit and Green Bay which square off earlier in the day. This is a good get right spot as it has been a month since their first win and have not won at home since September 22, a 34-7 win over Houston. The one concern is that the Vikings have been outgained in five straight games but three of those were a combined 31 yards so that is a skewed streak. One thing that is certain is the defense remains one of the best in the NFL, ranked No. 1 in Defensive DVOA and No. 3 in Defensive EPA. This line has come down since opening at 6.5 with a lot of that likely due to quarterback Anthony Richardson getting benched in favor of Joe Flacco and this was the smart move with Richardson possessing the worst quarterback rating in the NFL. Flacco has been solid with seven touchdowns and just one interception in his three games played but has had only one truly good all around game and that was against Jacksonville, the worst defense in the league in both DVOA and EPA. The Colts are 17 spots lower than Minnesota in Net DVOA and are walking into a tough spot and while they will be a public take based on their 6-0 ATS run, we are bucking that and going contrarian against that run as well as fading a defense that has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last three road games. 10* (466) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams came through for us last Thursday with a 30-20 upset win over Minnesota and this is a team to be on the look out for. The previous week, they picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing streak and any trade talk that was brought up two weeks ago is long gone. They are 3-4 in a wide open NFC West and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points and it all came together last week against a very good Minnesota team. The line is not ideal in a divisional game but we have this game at a pickem where it essential is as of Friday so a win gets us a push at worst. The Seahawks have been a tough team to figure out as they have lost four of their last five games after a blowout loss at home against Buffalo last week. The lone victory came at Atlanta and despite the 20-point win, they were outgained 385-399 in that game as the Seahawks have been outgained in four straight games after winning the yardage battle in their first four games which helped them get off to a 3-0 start that seems like eons ago. What does Seattle do good? Nothing in particular as it is ranked between No. 15 and No. 29 in every DVOA and EPA category and it catches the Rams at the wrong time coming off extended rest. What used to be one of the top three home field advantages in the NFL is no more and the Rams continue their turnaround here. 10* (471) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Detroit moved to 6-1 following a blowout win over Tennessee last Sunday thanks to its special teams which cannot be counted on every week. The Lions put up only 245 yards of offense because it was not needed as they played with the game flow and it was a solid win coming off a huge victory over the Vikings. Riding a five-game winning streak, the Lions now hit the road for their true outdoor environment game of the season and of course come in as the favorite. Detroit is ranked in the top ten in all DVOA and EPA categories but they have played a schedule ranked No. 22 in the league and while we are not saying this team is not good, we feel they have become the new public betting team and we are seeing that here with 61 percent of the early money coming in. The Packers survived Jacksonville last week as they kicked a 24-yard field goal as time expired to pull out the 30-27 win to make it four straight victories. They did suffer a loss with quarterback Jordan Love having to leave the game with a groin injury and while his status remains questionable, he made it back to practice on Thursday and all signs are that he will be playing. He was playing his worst game of the season prior to that but came in with a 95 or higher passer rating in his previous three games. Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup so there is value either way. When the Packers are .500 or better, they have covered seven straight games as underdogs when facing teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better and this is the spot to show they belong. With a bye week on deck, this is the opportunity to move into first place in the NFC North. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss at Detroit and while we cannot call it a misleading final, the Titans defense did its job once again as it held the Lions to a season low 225 total yards. Their offense was a liability again as they committed four turnovers but the positive was that they moved the ball with 416 total yards but they were in a no win situation especially when the special teams unit allowed 262 yards. They are back home where they are 0-3 while failing to cover any of their last three games which puts them in the contrarian play on spot. Tennessee remains No. 1 in total defense as it has now held five of its seven opponents to season-low yardage and in comes one of the worst offenses in the NFL off its biggest win of the season. The Patriots took out the rival Jets with a final minute touchdown which snapped a six-game losing streak following a season opening fluke win at Cincinnati. New England scored a season-high 25 points despite gaining only 224 yards on the offensive end and the quarterback situation remains in flux after Drake Maye having to leave the game last week with a concussion and he has been limited in practice this week. The injury report is massive on the defensive side and they just traded linebacker Joshua Uche to Kansas City further depleting the unit. The Patriots have been outgained in their last seven games and are currently No. 31 in Net DVOA and No. 28 in Net EPA as they are ranked No. 25 or worse in every DVOA and EPA category on both sides. 10* (452) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they defeated the Ravens outright which we were not expecting but it was a wire-to-wire cover and that huge divisional win presents a go against opportunity as it is a letdown spot. While there might be some positive hope, the Browns are still just 2-6 with one of the worst offenses in the NFL although it is a different unit now with Deshawn Watson finally out. Quarterback Jameis Winston gave the lifeless offense a spark as he threw for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interception. While facing the Baltimore defense normally would have been a tough task, the Ravens defense is not good this season and now Cleveland faces a Chargers defense ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive DVOA. The Chargers are coming off a win over the floundering Saints, bouncing back from a last second loss against the Cardinals. Of note, quarterback Justin Herbert looks to be fully recovered from his ankle injury and he has been given more of a green light as he has thrown the ball 34, 39 and 32 times his last three games, all season highs, and he has quietly put up a 98.2 passer rating thanks to throwing only one interception. Los Angeles has not been great on offense as a whole as it is No. 18 in DVOA and No. 22 in EPA but have had their top three performances in their last three games which coincides with Herbert airing it out more. The Browns used their defense to carry them into the playoffs last season but are a bottom half unit this season. 10* (453) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our ACC Game of the Year. Admittedly, we were low on SMU coming into the season coming off an 11-3 record last year and taking a big step up in a conference move to the ACC. The Mustangs opened with a rough win at Nevada by only five points and then lost at BYU but the undefeated Cougars are showing that the three-point loss was actually not bad at all. They have won five straight games since then including a solid win at Louisville which opened a three-game roadtrip and now they are back home for the first time in over a month and this is going to be a tough environment at night. SMU is 4-0 in the ACC, trailing Clemson by a half-game and tied with Miami and with a favorable closing schedule, it is in a place to finish undefeated in the conference. While SMU may be the surprise to some in the ACC, Pittsburgh is the biggest surprise in the conference as it is now 7-0 following a blowout win over Syracuse despite gaining just 217 yards on offense. The Panthers returned three interceptions for touchdowns which added to their fortunate season as they are now No. 3 in the Luck Ratings as they now have four wins that could have been losses. Now they are catching over a touchdown? Yes and for a reason. The line will make no sense to some being favored by as much as they are against an undefeated team this late in the season and the hook in some places will put people on the Panthers but do not be afraid of that hook to lay as it is there for a reason. 10* (366) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Rivalry Rout. We were against Colorado St. last week and the turnover bug caught us again, something that is impossible to put into a handicap along with special teams big plays. Colorado St. defeated New Mexico 17-6 but it was a misleading final as the Rams were outgained 453-334 but benefitted from a +4 turnover advantage and no team with even a positive yardage differential of over 100 yards can pull that off with those mistakes. The Rams have now won three straight games to improve to 5-3 on the season including 3-0 in the Mountain West Conference and are on pace to face Boise St. in the championship as they do not face each other during the regular season. There are only seven true conference road games this season because of the Oregon St. and Washington St. non-affiliations but still being part of the mix and the Rams have been the biggest beneficiaries avoiding the Broncos and UNLV. And now they come in as a favorite of only two points which is the reason to fade. Nevada came into the season projected to finish last in the conference and that is still in play but the Wolf Pack have been better than advertised. They are 3-6 and need to win out but with road games at Boise St. and UNLV, that will not be happening yet have been competitive with four of their losses coming by five points or less which will not necessarily qualify with what they are getting here, but all of those were against better teams. Nevada is ranked No. 95 in Net EPS, ahead of the Rams by playing a tougher schedule. 10* (396) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. We knew it was a rebuilding campaign for the Huskies following their National Championship chase last season as they returned only six starters after their 14-1 season. Washington is 4-4 following a pair of trips to the Midwest where they lost to Iowa and Indiana by double digits to fall to 0-3 on the road. The Huskies are back home where they are 4-0, the loss against Washington St. was not on campus, and have a great Pac 12 matchup where they check a lot of boxes and yet come in as the underdog. Despite the .500 record, Washington has outgained every opponent which is a rarity to begin with as they are one of only 21 teams in the country to do so and their No. 20 ranking in Net EPA backs it up. USC is doing USC things again as its defense is falling apart as the Trojans have allowed 461 ypg over their last three games. They came away with a cover for us last week against Rutgers at home despite winning the yardage battle by only nine total yards and are back on the road which is actually their best travel situation with their first three road games having to go to Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. Even though there are shorter miles, this is not a team that should be laying points on the road against a quality opponent. We know this is now the Big 10 but it just sounds weird, it will always still be the Pac 12 to us but in any case, the wrong team is favored. 10* (378) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. While it is no longer penned The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this is one of the more underrated rivalries that is still a heated one despite it having become one-sided the last few years with Georgia winning the last three and six of the last seven meetings. Blowout losses against Miami and Texas A&M put Florida head coach Billy Napier on the early hot seat but the Gators have bounced back with three wins in their last four games with the lone loss coming against Tennessee by just six points on the road. While they will be facing one of the best defenses in the country, the Gators offense has confidence in quarterback D.J. Lagway, who has taken over for the injured Graham Mertz who threw for 259 yards on only seven completions against a very good Kentucky defense. Georgia is obviously one of the best teams in the country yet again with their only loss coming against Alabama but this is far from the dominating team from the past few years. The Bulldogs are coming off a big win over Texas, which is another team that has all of sudden not being as dominant as most expected, and their other three wins before that against Mississippi St., Auburn and Kentucky were by a combined 29 points as favorites by a combined 75.5 points. We have this number at 12 in both sets of our power rankings so there is value on that as this Georgia team will always see a spike in their number just based on who they are and not necessarily what they have been putting on the field. 10* (353) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. Oregon is in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten as it improved to 5-0 following its second straight blowout win after its epic win over Ohio St. three weeks ago. The Ducks have moved into the No. 1 spot in the country thanks to dominating performances on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive EPA but other than the Buckeyes, they have not been tested with the exception of maybe Boise St. but that was in Eugene. This is not the most feared opponent but an awful situation as it is a conference test as we have seen many of the new west coast teams heading east and struggling out of their environment and the only real travel has been a trip to Purdue, the worst team in the conference and one of the worst teams in the country. Oregon has not played a road game in an environment like this in three years so none of these current players have seen this. We all knew Michigan was not going to come close to repeating what it did last season losing so much talent and its head coach so there have been struggles. The Wolverines lost to Texas at home but that was the second game of the season while another loss came at Washington in the biggest revenge game you will find this season. We cannot forgive the loss to Illinois but that was on the road and now they are catching an absurd number, getting double digits at home for the first time since catching 13 against Ohio St. in 2017. 10* (384) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We had Syracuse last Thursday night against Pittsburgh and it gifted the Panthers a win no thanks to quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been sensational this season, but he tossed five interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns. A bad matchup maybe or just a lack of preparation is a reason but we expect a much more focused effort at home where the Orange are back in Syracuse for the first time in over a month following three straight road games including a trip out west to UNLV. The Orange have outgained all eight opponents, including Pittsburgh where they won the yardage battle 381-217, and now come in as the underdog with the final score from last week playing a lot into the line. The Hokies were one of the most inconsistent teams early in the season but have turned the corner with three straight wins as well as riding a 4-0 streak against the number which is the time to go against that run. This is not the time to keep riding that ATS stretch as this has been just a very average team on both sides, coming in No. 84 in total offense and No. 61 in total defense and while the metrics rate them higher based on their strength of schedule, the same goes for the other side with Syracuse. We are on the situation of fading another favorite facing a team that has dominated all of their opponents and now back home. 10* (322) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We have two teams in completely opposite places with Army one of only eight remaining undefeated teams in the country facing an Air Force team that beat Merrimack of the FCS in its season opener but has lost six straight games since then. Counting that opening win over the Warriors which they did not cover, the Falcons are 0-7 against the number on the season and are now catching their biggest number and justifiably so. Coming into the season, this was kind of expected with just six starters back but not to this extent and now Air Force has to win out to become bowl eligible which likely will not happen but they do not want to end it here. Army was 6-0 against the number and failed to cover its first game two weeks ago by a half-point. This obviously plays into the number and in a game based on styles, there will not be many possessions so covering a large number with such a low total is difficult. Another factor is that Air Force has been the tenth unluckiest team in the country and Luck Ratings are a factor this late into the season as lines are made from records first and foremost because that goes with public perception which gives us value. This situation could not be more similar to last season as Air Force came into this matchup with an 8-0 record and favored at home by 18.5 points over Army and lost outright 23-3. Do we see an outright Air Force win this time around? Probably not but we will gladly grab this inflated number. 10* (329) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. This is the time for UTSA to get up off the mat and salvage its season as it is coming off one of the worst losses you will ever see. The Roadrunners had a 35-7 lead at halftime while holding a 25-point lead late in the third quarter but were outscored 29-3 and ended up losing by a point. It was just an epic collapse of allowing big plays as UTSA still outgained the Golden Hurricane 546-433 and it is that offense that is the factor here. This comes down to coaching and we firmly believe that UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is one of the most underrated coaches in the country who came in 39-14 as the Roadrunners head coach. A lot of teams will let that loss linger but not this team and not here. We played against Memphis last week as it was overpriced against Charlotte and escaped with a five-point win as a 17-point favorite. The defense remains the concern as the Tigers have had some great performances against teams that cannot move the ball but have struggled against teams that can and they head to one of the tougher environments in a vulnerable spot. Memphis is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA which is horrible considering some of their solid performances. The Roadrunners have won 26 of their last 26 home games and while we do not need the outright win here, it is still in play as we are catching the touchdown as insurance. 10* (358) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our CFB Star Attraction. This is the game of the week and Ohio St. heads to Happy Valley looking to make it eight straight wins over Penn St. Starting a perfect 7-0 is ideal for the Nittany Lions as they are in a place where they have not been in the past, basically a lock for the playoffs no matter what happens here. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three seasons but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover but the expansion arguably helps them more than arguably any other team in the country. That being said, they are not going to lay down here and this is the best version of the Nittany Lions that can finally take down the Buckeyes. This was a wait and see during the week but the news we wanted was ideal as Penn St. starting quarterback Drew Allar was an active participant at a practice viewing window opened to reporters on Wednesday. This is a game he will not sit out if he can go. The Buckeyes come in as the best team in the country as far as metrics are concerned as they are No. 1 in Net EPA with both sides being in the top three. We think Ohio St. was somewhat exposed last week against Nebraska and some will call it looking ahead but we do not think that is the case based on coaching. The EPA numbers are great but they are against a schedule ranked No. 52 and this is one of these other spots where we are catching an underdog that has outgained every opponent and having played a tougher schedule. 10* (398) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Connecticut has already exceeded expectations as they came in with a 4.5 o/u win total and surpassed that coming off its fifth win with a 17-10 victory over Rice on Saturday. This is their sixth straight home game which is a weird scheduling construct but it is an advantage as there has been no travel since September 14. This is their final home game of the season as they close the season with three straight road games so this is a great setup to become bowl eligible even though the Huskies will be favored in two of those three road games but they want to do it on their home field. The three losses came against three ACC teams and while they were not against the best ACC teams, they are still from a P4 conference and two of those were by eight points combined against Duke and Wake Forest. Georgia St. came into the season picked to finish last in the SBC East Division as they had just 10 returning starters, possessed the No. 113 roster in experience and brought in a new head coach late in the spring. The Panthers are now starting to play like it. They opened the season 2-1 which did include an upset win over Vanderbilt but the other win came against Chattanooga of the FCS by only three points. They have lost their last four games since then and they are now all but done. They too had a nice schedule starting in September with four straight home games but this marks their third straight road game with one more on deck at James Madison so there is no letup. Georgia St. is No. 104 in Net EPA with a really bad defense and the huskies have big edges on both sides. 10* (316) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Dominator. While no one wants to bet the Jets now or anytime in the near future, we have to go against the philosophy this week with what is happening in the market. New York opened as the favorite by a point and a half and despite 82 percent of the money on Houston as of Tuesday night, the line has not moved at some spots and gone up to -2 at some others. The nonmovement or slight move up despite the money differential is telling while some of it could do with the loss of wide receiver Stefon Diggs for this game and unfortunately for Houston, the rest of the season. The Texans may be 6-2 but they are a weak 6-2 and now without their top two receivers, they are in a vulnerable public spot Thursday. The Jets season keeps getting worse following a last minute loss to the Patriots, dropping them to 2-6. The thing is, they could be 6-2 as four of their five losses during this losing streak have come down to the final minute with quarterback Aaron Rodgers not executing late in three of those. The defense is just as much to blame and they too have failed late so it has been a culmination of poor timing along with bad special teams. This should not happen to supposed good teams but their No. 16 Net EPA is right in line with the No. 14 Net EPA for Houston. We do take into account luck at this point in the season and this game has the biggest disparity of all of them this week as the Texas are the second luckiest team in the league while the Jets are the unluckiest team in the NFL so while the records are four games apart, they could easily be a lot closer. 10* (312) New York Jets

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CUSA Game of the Month. This line has flipped as Jacksonville St. opened as a one point favorite but Liberty has moved into that role by as much as 2.5 points in some places. A lot of this is due to the expectation of the Flames bouncing back from one of the biggest upsets in college football this season as they lost at Kennesaw St. by a field goal as 26.5-point favorites. Despite their 5-1 record, they have not been playing like it not even taking into account that loss as they have played a lot of closer than expected games and this is just their second game as single digit favorites, this being by far the lowest. They surely can bounce back here but even though they have the higher rankings in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, this is due to playing a schedule ranked No. 171, the easiest schedule among all FBS teams. Jacksonville St. is playing its best football at the right time as it has won four straight games by an average of 34.8 ppg following a 0-3 start to the season. Granted, the wins have come against four of the five worst teams in Conference USA but winning is winning and winning big is even more important. We are now seeing close to a three-touchdown line swing from their last two games but the Gamecocks are absolutely rolling and the confidence and momentum factors are huge this time of season. They are not far behind Liberty in EPA despite playing the tougher schedule and they are No. 115 in the Luck Rankings so they have been one of the more unluckier teams in the country. The power ranking do call for them to be favored and with where this line is going, they could be catching a field goal at some point. 10* (307) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. First place is on the line in the Sun Belt Conference, at least a share of it, if Texas St. comes away with the win as that would make it seven teams tied at the top at 3-1 while a Louisiana win would put keep the Cajuns the lone undefeated team in the conference. The Bobcats are back home following a loss at Old Dominion 10 days ago to fall to 2-1 in the SBC but they do own the most impressive conference win of these two teams with a 41-9 win over Arkansas St. at home where they are 3-1, the lone defeat coming against Arizona St. by three points. Texas St. is No. 57 in Net EPA which is only four spots behind Louisiana despite playing a tougher schedule. The real significant disparity is that the Bobcats are No. 128 in the Luck Rankings, making them the seventh unluckiest team in the nation. The Cajuns have won four straight games leading off with a three-point win at Wake Forest which was their best win of the season by far. Their first two victories came against Grambling St. of the FCS and new FBS team Kennesaw St. while their three conference victories have been against Coastal Carolina, Southern Mississippi and Appalachian St. which are a combined 2-9 in the SBC and all of those were by just 10 points each. The easy start to the schedule has helped the Cajuns start 4-0 on the road and this is now the toughest test with Texas St. ranked ahead of Wake Forest. Louisiana is on the other side of the number in the Luck Rankings as they are No. 18 so they have been pretty fortunate. 10* (306) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Giants offense has not been good to begin with but last week was a forgettable performance as they managed only 119 total yards in their 28-3 loss to the Eagles. They have scored 10 points in their last two games combined and now hit the road to face a notoriously strong defense with a quarterback that is 1-14 in his career in primetime games. That being said, this is all being taken into account with this number and hitting the road is not necessarily a bad thing for New York as it is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Washington by just three points. One key factor is to get Malik Nabers more involved as he was limited to just four catches last week and he will be defended by cornerback Joey Porter Jr. who has surrendered 17 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown thus far this season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers are now 5-2 coming off their blowout win over the Jets as the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback did not affect the offense. He was solid in his debut but the Steelers will be out to run the ball as Pittsburgh comes into this game with 235 rush attempts on the year, the second-most in the NFL. Even with Wilson starting at QB and throwing for 264 yards last week, the Steelers still ran the ball 36 times for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants were gashed against the run last week against the Eagles but prior to that, they allowed more than 121 rushing yards in five of their first six games. in what is expected to be a low scoring game with a total set at 36, grabbing the value on the underdog is the play. 10* (291) New York Giants

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The 49ers took another hit last week as the injury list continues to grow with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk now out for the season following a 28-18 loss against Kansas City. At 3-4, San Francisco typically would be a team on the outside looking in but its division is wide open and a wake up call might have gotten taken on Thursday night with the big Rams win, a now healthy team they have already lost to. While we mentioned Philadelphia, which is 4-2, being the only team in the league in top ten in both total offense and defense, the 49ers are the only team with a losing record ranked in the top ten in every DVOA category while sitting No. 10 in Net EPA. No team has started 3-5 to make a Super Bowl and while not a must win, this will be a costly loss. Dallas is coming off its bye week after getting dismantled by the Lions in a 47-9 loss. Admittedly, their season is on the line as well and who really cares as it should not even be a story with the Cowboys being No. 23 or worse in seven of eight DVOA and EPA rankings. Overall, Dallas is No. 27 in Net EPA and No. 23 in Net DVOA. We are seeing the RLM here with this line coming down despite the early money on the Cowboys with the bye week being a possible rationale for favoring the Dallas side which we cannot buy into. While we do not take history too much into play, there is bad recent history here for the Cowboys which have lost the last three meetings with a lot of the same rosters since 2022 and it is the 49ers defense that has dominated with the Cowboys averaging only 262 ypg. 10* (290) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL following a 28-18 win over San Francisco where the 49ers were severely shorthanded once again. The Chiefs have covered their last four games and are overpriced here with the public being all over them in this spot. They retain the No. 1 spot in the Luck Rankings and we are going against them with some of it based on that as it will eventually come back to show their flaws. One of those is quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is having the season of his career with an 82.5 passer rating and has failed to throw a touchdown in two straight games and now has a 6:8 TD:INT ratio. He got a weapon he wanted with DeAndre Hopkins and despite this, we have seen the line come down despite Kansas City carrying over 60 percent of the early money. Las Vegas is coming off a loss against a beaten up Rams team at the time and that was its third straight loss. And now wide receiver Davante Adams is gone but he was out for a while anyway and it is safe to say he was part of the internal problem and it is better that he is gone. The Raiders are bottom four in the NFL in Offensive and Defensive DVOA but this is the spot to play them in a divisional game with an overreaction number against a team coming off an emotional win where they did not look good. The Raiders can take advantage of the Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends all season and Brock Bowers who has been targeted 36 times the last three games to have another big effort this week. It is ugly but it is the right side. 10* (286) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Ah Cleveland. There have been a number of disappointments in the league this season and the Browns are on the list but now we have a different team coming into this week. We never look for an injury to help a team but this is a different situation with Deshaun Watson now out for the season and it can only help this team. The Browns have lost five straight games following a 1-1 start and are the only team in the NFL to score 18 or fewer points in all of their games. The Browns are No. 32 in Offensive DVOA and No. 30 in Offensive EPA yet we are on that offense with Jameis Winston taking over which will open up this unit despite no more Amari Cooper. Running back Nick Chubb came back last week and while he looked not his normal self, that was expected after missing a year and now he has to be taken into account by a defense that has not been very good. The Ravens are ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 13 in Defensive DVOA and while the latter is better, it is taking into account teams coming from behind and failing. Baltimore has turned its season around after a 0-2 start as the Ravens have won five straight games while not losing a cover over this stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped as they lead the league overall and in rushing as the Derrick Henry signing has been the best offseason move from any team. The run they are on in non-sustainable and this is the time to go against them, coming off a short week and playing on the road again, this one against a desperate division rival with a line that has been stretch out to the max. 10* (266) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is a tough spot for Arizona which is coming off a last second win over the Chargers on Monday night to move to 3-4. The Cardinals defense held Los Angeles to five field goals so while that may say something for the defense, it was more of a portrayal of the anemic Chargers offense as Arizona is still ranked No. 26 in Defensive DVOA and No. 29 in Defensive EPA. Granted, the Cardinals have played the toughest schedule in the NFL and while now facing a 2-4 team, this will be a different looking 2-4 team and they have to travel east on a short week to play in the early time slot. While quarterback Kyler Murray has shown flashes, he has only two games with a passer rating of more than 80 in his last five games. Miami scored 20 points in its opener against Jacksonville but has failed to get past 15 points in any of its last five games. The main cause is the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Game Two against Buffalo and he has been out since then with another concussion but he will return to action this week. We can only hope he has a safe return back as he looks to be risking a lot but he is hellbent on returning to the game he loves. Even though he put up only 20 points against the Jaguars, he put up 338 yards through the air and he completely changes the dynamic of this offense. His return coming at home is going to have this team energized and we should see the Dolphins of old who should have no issues having their best game of the season. Miami has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games against teams coming off a Monday night home game. 10* (272) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Sometimes betting a team when it is down is the way to go and this is one of those spots. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead against Baltimore last Monday and then it all caved in when wide receiver Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury and the end of the game was more devastating when fellow receiver Chris Godwin was lost for the season. The only good out of this is that the Buccaneers have had a full week to get ready with a new set of pass catchers and while put him down as much as you want but Baker Mayfield is great in this system and can adjust. The overreaction is on our side as this line has flipped with the Buccaneers opening as a typical 2.5-point divisional favorite and now they are the underdog of the same number and this will hit three. The Falcons came into the season as the favorite to win the NFC South and while they are on pace and arguably in better position now, this is still not an overly good team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has given the offense life while breaking the franchise record in passing yards three weeks ago and then following it up with a good performance against a bad Carolina team and then was not good last week against the Seahawks. The Falcons are stepping into a vulnerable situation playing a team that everyone has given up on while playing only their second road game in five weeks, the lone exception being that Panthers game. Take a team when they are down early in the season when nothing is far from done and we have an overreaction line on our side coming into the next game. 10* (274) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Eagles have won two straight games against arguably two of the worst teams in the NFL which has put their schedule rank at No. 27 but now face the team that has played the easiest schedule in the league and still has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia is a team that has one of the best rosters in the league and has not come close to expectations but is the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten in both total offense and total defense and it is only a matter of time in the wide open NFC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will now be in his second straight game with his full receiving corps and is on pace for his third straight game to post a passer rating of 119 or better. No one is on this team with 84 percent of the money on the Bengals yet the line has come down which is a total take. Cincinnati is coming off two straight wins as well and coincidentally, both against the Browns and the Giants. They were not nearly as convincing as they were outgained in both of those and the Bengals have been outgained in four straight games which puts them in the spot where the 3-1 record is factoring into the line. Quarterback Joe Burrow is having a great season and is ranked No. 2 in passer rating but again, the schedule has had a lot to do with it. The fact they are 0-3 at home is putting the majority on this team but there is only one playoff team in this matchup and it is not the Bengals. Cincinnati is ranked No. 20 or worse in five of the eight DVOA and EPA categories which makes them a team that cannot be trusted against a team getting healthy at the right time. 10* (283) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great buy low spot on Utah as it is coming off its third straight loss following a 4-0 start. The Utes offense has regressed during this skid but now has something to prove after offensive coordinator resigned on Sunday, basically giving up on his unit, and Mike Bajakian will take over play calling duties. He has been in place as the offensive analyst so he knows the team and how to overcome the injuries. This is still one of the best offensive lines in the conference and while quarterback Isaac Wilson is still finding his footing in replacing Cam Rising, running back Micah Bernard is the leader of the offense that is going through him through the transition. The Utes still rely on their strong defense and linebacker Karene Reid is one of the leaders of this unit and after missing four games, he returned last week. They have an excellent matchup this week against a Houston offense that continues to struggle. Following their 42-14 loss against Kansas last week, the Cougars are 2-5 and they have scored 14 points or less in all five of those losses including getting shut out twice. Houston is No. 98 in Offensive EPA and while their defense rates better, they are coming off their worst game of the season and that is coming after a bye week. Utah has outgained six of its seven opponents this season despite the recent offensive struggles and this is the ideal spot to regain its identity. 10* (167) Utah Utes

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our MWC Game of the Month. The Lobos were not expected to do much this season and they have not exactly done that but they have turned their season around as after a 0-4 start, they have won three straight games with the offense leading the way. New Mexico has scored at least 50 points in all three of their victories and the chance of that streak to continue here is in play against a defense ranked No. 116 in Net EPA. It took a little bit for first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall to find out how this team can win but he is a proven coach where he had huge success at BYU and turned around Virginia before suddenly retiring at the end of 2021 so this early turnaround is no surprise. They come in undervalued with an Offensive EPA which has moved up to No. 52 and catching a big number that we have at just a half-point in one set of ratings. Colorado St. is in a play against spot as it is 4-3 with three wins coming in its last four games, the other coming against Northern Colorado of the FCS earlier in the season. The Rams have covered four straight games, one an underdog loss against Oregon St. by eight points where they were getting 10 and the other three as favorites but they were far from dominant in any of those, winning by 25 points while being favored by a combined 18 points. The offense has been decent but nothing exceptional with an EPA of No. 97 as the passing game took a big hit with wide receiver Tory Horton lost for the season. 10* (189) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. BYU is one of the surprise teams in the country as it is off to a 7-0 start following a come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma St. last week as it won on a 35-yard touchdown pass with 35 seconds remaining so that is a celebration that went on for a while and now the Cougars take one of the longer road trips in the conference to Central Florida. The Cougars are 3-0 on the road but all came in their time zone and two of those were fortunate victories at SMU, who made a mid-game quarterback change, and at Baylor where they were outgained. They did have their 6-0 ATS streak snapped last week against the Cowboys but they are still overvalued and in an awful spot as undefeated teams from Week Eight out that are favored by four points or less or in the underdog role are just 42-61 and the reasoning is, these teams are not as good as that record indicates if the line is as short as it is. Central Florida has lost four straight games following a 3-0 start including a 38-35 loss against undefeated Iowa St. last week as the Knights gave up the winning touchdown with 30 seconds left. The luck factor has played a role in the records of these teams as Central Florida is No. 118 in Luck Rating while BYU is No. 1, coming in as the luckiest team in the country. The metrics rate these teams a lot closer with the Cougars coming in No. 20 in Net EPA and the Knight being No. 31 with both playing top 25 schedules. 10* (124) Central Florida Knights

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Maryland is coming off a huge win last week as it rallied from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter against USC by scoring 15 unanswered points to improve to 4-3 on the season. The Terrapins had lost two straight games prior to this including a 37-10 loss against Northwestern so they were a sinking ship and the win over the Trojans could have saved their season. That being said, this is the letdown spot as they are back on the road where they are 1-1, losing to Indiana and while the win was a two-touchdown victory over Virginia, they benefitted from a +4 turnover differential so it was a game that could have gone either way. They have a bye on deck so there is no lookahead to Oregon but they are now facing a team off of their own bye. Minnesota picked up a pair of wins against Big 10 newcomers USC and UCLA which came after a tough loss at Michigan by three points as they nearly rallied from a 21-point deficit. The defense that started the season great and then fell into a lull is now back once again and the Gophers come in ranked No. 20 in Defensive EPA as they have held four teams to season low yardages and have another good matchup here. Quarterback Max Brosmer is getting comfortable in this offense and has been very efficient not being asked to do much behind a great defense that can be relied on. The bye came at a good time with no letdown possible. 10* (158) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We are not exactly sure what happened to Texas Tech last week as a three-point game midway through the third quarter turned into a 31-point deficit 11 minutes later. We do know what happened actually as the Red Raiders gave Baylor a short field on two touchdown drives stemming from a turnover on downs and an interception and when all said and done, they had their six-game home winning streak snapped and allowed the Bears to score their most conference points in six years. Now it is time to get off the mat which should happen as they are still very much alive in the Big 12 with a 3-1 record, one of six teams at 3-1 or better. In this matchup, Texas Tech rates better on both offense and defense and has played the slightly tougher schedule yet comes in as a heavy underdog. TCU is coming off a 13-7 win over a banged up Utah team following a horrible loss against Houston, part of a 1-3 run. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 with the other three wins coming against Long Island of the FCS and Kansas and Stanford, both of which sit at 2-5. While they allowed only seven points last week, they are still No. 74 in Defensive EPA, 50 spots worse than the Red Raiders so the results from last week creates a line overreaction. Now all of a sudden, they are favored by 6.5 points against a quality opponent and the power rankings have them favored by under a field goal and that is with home field advantage taken into consideration. 10* (161) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Miami got off to a slow start this season as the offense was unable to do anything against Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame while also not doing much against Massachusetts and Toledo and while the Redhawks have scored 38 and 30 points over the last two games, we are not completely sold. They have won and covered their last two games and now the markets are overreacting thinking this team is back to where they were last season when they won the MAC but they are not that same team, especially on the defensive side. Miami had one of the best defenses in the country last year when they had nine starters back from an already solid defense but only six starters returned this season and they have had trouble adjusting, falling to No. 54 in Defensive EPA. The offense has been able to score lately as mentioned but the Redhawks are still No. 82 in Offensive EPA as quarterback Brett Gabbert has not played to expectations and has been very inconsistent. Central Michigan comes in with the same record at 3-4 following a pair of losses in their last two games against Ohio and Eastern Michigan by a combined six points. The Chippewas were underdogs by a field goal in those games and now we are seeing a massive line swing against a Miami team that is rated identical to that Bobcats team. We have this number at a touchdown so Miami is trending up but not to where the markets are putting them. 10* (143) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We are to the point of the season where head coaching changes are starting to be made and East Carolina was one of two teams to fire their head coach this week as Mike Houston was let go following a 45-28 loss to Army, its second straight blowout loss. Both of those were on the road and now the Pirates return home under the direction of defensive coordinator Blake Harrell in a great spot to salvage the season and improve to 4-4 and a nice stretch coming up. These changes can light a fire under a team and this is still a solid team that has edges on both sides of the ball and we are getting value with the number with East Carolina being a team that will be avoided because of the coaching change which is typically done by teams completely in the tank. Temple is coming off a 20-10 win over Tulsa which snapped a two-game losing streak to improve the Owls to 2-5. One of those recent losses was at Connecticut which was their only road game over a five-game stretch and in that game, they were getting 17.5 points and are now catching 10 points less. Looking at the power numbers, Connecticut rates only a half point better in one set and three points better in the other set so this is an overadjustment to the line. The Owls are 0-3 on the road this season and going back, they are 1-22 in their last 23 road games while covering just seven of those games. 10* (146) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. We played against Memphis last week and while it won, it failed to cover and the Tigers are overpriced again. The defense got gashed as it showed it is vulnerable with this being the second time in their last four games where they allowed at least 14 points sandwiched around two games where they allowed 10 points total so which defense shows up? Even if it is a middling one, this number is priced too high as their win over North Texas was by eight points and their previous three wins were by 18, 17 and 8 points and those were against teams all rated lower than Charlotte. Overall, the Tigers are No. 75 in Net EPA which is not impressive for a 6-1 team and the 49ers come in at No. 85 in Net EPA so that disparity does not equate to a spread of more than two possessions. Charlotte is coming off a 51-17 blowout loss against Navy but it was a skewed final as the 49ers gave the Midshipmen a short field because of mistakes with nine of their first 10 drives starting in Charlotte territory and that is where Navy took advantage to build a 38-0 lead. The 49ers actually outgained Navy 363-288 but five turnovers did them, which included two interceptions returned for touchdowns in to drop them to 3-4 following a two-game winning streak. They held Navy to a season-low in yards and in comparison, Memphis allowed 566 yards to the Midshipmen. This is the big letdown for Memphis and have a revenge game with UTSA on deck. 10* (177) Charlotte 49ers

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Star Attraction. Oklahoma came up small last week against a vastly improved South Carolina team even though the 35-9 final score was skewed and while the Sooners are trending the wrong way, they are seeing a 19-point line swing as they hit the road in what is the biggest amount of points they have gotten since 1998. Oklahoma actually outgained the Gamecocks 291-254 but was done in by four turnovers, two that were directly returned for touchdowns. The big news out of Norman is that offensive coordinator Seth Litrell was let go after just seven games on the job coaching an offense that has fallen to No. 128 in total yards. In his defense, they have played a schedule ranked No. 11 and many parts of the offense have been hurt yet they are still a better No. 83 in Offensive EPA. The defense is still a force as the Sooners are No. 13 in Defensive EPA despite the points allowed as the unit has been put in some tough spots and the defense is not guilty of all of the points given up. The Rebels rolled in their first four games against some bad teams but the real team has emerged. Mississippi is simply overvalued with this number which has become the case with a lot of SEC home teams this season as favorites are just 2-12 ATS while overall SEC underdogs are 22-9 ATS. We are getting a break with this time as a 12:00 ET home game in the SEC is not nearly as strong as a late afternoon or night start. 10* (169) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. It has been another lost season for USC as it is now 3-4 after its third straight loss and fourth defeat over its last five games. There was early Trojans talk about becoming a playoff contender following a season opening win over LSU which is looking even better but USC has not been able to close. All four of these losses have come in the final minute so if you see that USC is 5-7 plays away from being 7-0, it is totally true. They have a Luck Rating of No. 128, the higher the number, the unluckier they are, and this takes into account losses like this and how they happen. It has been the fault of the defense because of the late opposing scores but this unit is not nearly as bad as it was last season as the Trojans are No. 40 in Defensive EPA and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 6. They have been stronger on offense, just not strong enough at times, as they are No. 14 in Offensive EPA and in their loss last week, they threw for 336 yards and they can pile up those yards again this week as Miller Moss has been a solid quarterback. This is the season for USC. It can be argued that the season is on the line for Rutgers as well as it has lost three straight games following a 4-0 start. The offense managed only seven points in losses against Nebraska and Wisconsin and while the Scarlet Knights scored 32 points against UCLA last week, they allowed 35 points, more than double what the Bruins had scored in any of their first six games. Rutgers is reeling in a horrible spot as they have to travel out west. 10* (118) USC Trojans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Vikings suffered their first loss of the season, a two-point setback to Detroit after blowing a 10-0 lead after the first quarter. At 5-1, Minnesota has played the No. 2 ranked schedule in the NFL so give them credit for that as three of their wins have come against teams ranked No. 5, No. 7 and No. 8 in the Sagarin ratings but we are not sold on those wins. San Francisco is broken and has been killed with injuries, Houston remains a very overrated 5-2 while Green Bay was playing with Jordan Love in his first game back and was clearly rusty in the first half. The Vikings are the public play here yet the line has either not moved at all or the juice has increased on the Rams side which gives us that slight RLM value. Many will expect Minnesota to bounce back after its 5-0 start but teams are just 8-8 straight up and 6-10 ATS when coming off their first loss from Week Eight on over the last 34 years. Teams in this situation, eight favorites or underdogs and playing their next game on Thursday are 6-10 straight up and 5-11 ATS. The Rams picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing straight and are now 0-3 ATS their last three games. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points so they will be out to avoid the NFC North sweep. Los Angeles is getting healthier with key players along both sides of line back and it will see the return of wide receiver Cooper Kupp this week as well. This is a great buy low spot with a good number against a team coming off a huge emotional loss against a division rival. 10* (110) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our ACC Game of the Month. This line has moved up to 6 and it is a move based on the fact that Pittsburgh enters the game as one of only nine remaining undefeated teams in the country and this is a number that should be no more than three points as both of our sets of power ratings indicates. These teams are more equal that what the number shows as the Panthers come in ranked No. 47 in Net EPA while Syracuse is No. 49 while the teams have played similar strength of schedules. Pittsburgh has been one of the luckiest teams in the country as it has a Luck Rating rank of No. 3 with two wins coming after having double-digit fourth quarter deficits while defeating California by two points in their last game aided by a two-points conversion miss and a 40-yard missed field goal inside two minutes by the Golden Bears. This is the best Panthers start since 1982 and we certainly are not sold. Syracuse is coming off a win at NC State to make it three straight wins since its only loss which came against Stanford at home on a field goal as time expired. The last two wins came on the road and while this is the third straight road game, the Orange are coming off a bye so the travel aspect is not an issue. Syracuse comes in ranked No. 18 in Offensive EPA thanks to a passing game that is No. 14 in EPA and now faces a defense awful against the pass as the Panthers are No. 86 so quarterback Kyle McCord is in line for his seventh straight 300-yard passing game to start the season. 10* (111) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off a loss against New Mexico St. in overtime which gave the Aggies their second win of the season, snapping a five-game losing streak. The defeat sent the Bulldogs to 2-4 on the season with the last three losses coming by a combined 13 points so they have been right there to have a reversal record with two of those three losses coming on the road. They are back home where they are 2-1 which includes a win over Middle Tennessee St. in their last game here by 27 points at a very similar number and getting this one under a touchdown is a bargain, especially with playing a team still celebrating their first win. The Miners took out Florida International at a seven-point home underdog 30-21. They held the Panthers to only 14 first downs on fewer than 300 total years but UTEP is still No. 99 in Defense EPA and now face an offense that is trending the right way. Quarterback Evan Bullock has thrown for nearly 800 yards in his last four games since taking over this offense in that first game while tossing eight touchdowns with no interceptions. He has that great matchup to keep rolling and on the other side, UTEP quarterback Cade McConnell is still uncertain after getting injured two weeks ago and missing the FIU game which likely means Skyler Locklear will be making his third straight start. 10* (104) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens come in as the big public betting favorite yet we have seen the line come down as they opened at 4.5 and came down a point last Monday but it will not be surprising to see it go slightly back up once more public action comes in. Baltimore has won four straight games after starting the season 0-2 and it has been successful thanks to the best running game in the league from a yardage standpoint while sitting No. 2 in Offensive Rushing EPA. During the four-game winning streak, Baltimore faced four of the bottom nine rushing defenses and Tampa Bay is ranked better than those four opponents and are stronger now with Vita Vea back in the lineup. The Ravens passing game is not as strong since it really has not been needed for the most part and has the advantage against the Tampa Bay passing defense however the Buccaneers are a top ten unit in Pressure % and Hurry %. The Buccaneers own offense is a potent unit as well and can exploit the Ravens weaknesses on defense, namely their outside coverage. Overall, Tampa Bay is No. 8 in Total Offense and No. 9 in Offensive EPA following three strong games, scoring 33, 30 and 51 points with the middle score being the only game they lost, a 36-30 setback in overtime against Atlanta. While Lamar Jackson is playing like and MVP once again, Baker Mayfield has fit very well into this system and is posting a career high 109.4 passer rating which is No. 3 in the league behind Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. We are over the key number which is above the Jackson threshold of dominating as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. 10* (476) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We could call this a revenge spot for the 49ers but this is more than that with this going against a 5-0 Kansas City team that could have a losing record at this point. The Chiefs first three wins came down to the final seconds, the win over Chargers was from a 10-0 deficit and the win over New Orleans two weeks ago was aided by Derek Carr leaving the game early. This is the prime Patrick Mahomes spot where he has thrived as an underdog which is where the public is already riding and the number has barely moved. They were able to catch Baltimore in Week One which was ideal with the Ravens coming in still looking to get their new roster together. San Francisco is only 3-3 which is a reason the line is short with no public backing. Two of the losses have come against division rivals Los Angeles and Arizonia which were two games they should have won and the other defeat was their first road game at Minnesota after a short week after the victory over the Jets. Despite the .500 record, the 49ers are rated high at No. 5 in Net EPA behind the offense that has been crushed with injuries and is still No. 6 in Offensive EPA with role players picking it up and quarterback Brock Purdy still being an underrated commodity. 10* (472) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We had the Eagles in this spot last Sunday which was the right side but a blocked field goal for a touchdown prevented the cover and this week we are grabbing Buffalo in a blowout situation. The Bills were fortunate to come out of New York with the victory over the Jets in a game plagued with penalties and a cleaner game heavily favors Buffalo. The addition of Amari Cooper is not the reason for this side, although it cannot hurt, as the Bills are finally back home following a three-game roadtrip where they ended up 1-2. With a game at Seattle on deck, there is no chance for a lookahead as this is the game to focus on after Buffalo falling from No. 2 to No. 5 in Net EPA. The Titans were a big disappointment last week, falling at home 20-17 against Indianapolis, as Will Levis did Will Levis things. He completed 16 passes for only 95 yards and had a late costly interception. We banked on the Tennessee defense which did its job by allowing only 269 yards but the offense showed why this is a fade team going forward. The Titans are No. 27 in Offensive EPA and No. 28 in Offensive DVOA and while their defense has made their Net rankings better, this is not the offense to face now with Buffalo getting back two big pieces plus showing running back Ray Davis is another weapon. 10* (456) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Everyone is so off of Cleveland at this point, coming off four straight losses including defeats in three straight road games. The trade of Amari Cooper shows they are selling and the line has moved with that as this game opened at 3.5 and is up to 6 in most places with 84 percent of the money riding on the Bengals. This is the ideal buy low contrarian spot whose offense just got rid of a big weapon while not scoring more than 18 points in any of their first six games but coming in as a divisional underdog of more than a field goal is always an appealing take. That offense will have Nick Chubb back in the lineup while the defense is still in the top half of the league in EPA. The Bengals are coming off a win in New York against the Giants to improve to 2-1 on the road and 2-4 overall. They have been outgained in their last three games and despite allowing just seven points last week, Cincinnati is still ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 22 in Defensive DVOA which gives the Cleveland offense an opportunity to break that 20-point barrier. The offense was held to just over 300 yards against the Giants and 47 of the 304 total yards came on a fluke touchdown run from Joe Burrow who has faced four straight teams with defense ranked No. 19 or worse in Defensive EPA. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

This is play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We are still bullish against Houston as it is an overrated 5-1 that could easily be 3-3 or even 2-4 as wins over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Buffalo were all by four points or less and could have swung to the other side. The metrics back this up as the Texans are ranked No. 14 in Net EPA which is the lowest ranking for any team with a winning record, let alone a team that is 5-1. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is backing up a solid rookie season with another good one but is just one interception short from his total picks from all of last season and now faces his second biggest road test of the season, the first being a 34-7 loss in Minnesota. Green Bay jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Arizona and never looked back to improve to 4-2 and yet are still undervalued in the NFC North which has become the best division in football. The Packers have done this without quarterback Jordan Love for two games after getting injured in the series opener against the Eagles and after a rusty first half against Minnesota in his first game back, he is playing at an elite level. This is a good spot with it facing Jacksonville next week so certainly no lookahead and the majority of the money is on Houston despite the line hitting 3. 10* (460) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Minnesota is coming off its bye week following a win against the Jets across the pond which sets up a good spot here in a normal situation but we are still not clear how good this team really is. The metrics have them as the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL but who have they faced? Yes, Houston, which is still overrated and a San Francisco team that came in banged up and now the Vikings return home with a perfect 5-0 ATS record which we love to fade. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been in the MVP conversation talk yet is leading an offense that is No. 17 in Offensive EPA and No. 18 in Offensive DVOA. Detroit is coming off another dominating performance as it rolled over Dallas 47-9. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball even against the top ranked defense in regard to EPA. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball but Detroit moved to No. 4 in Defensive EPA and even with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, it is not that big against an overrated Darnold. This was our preseason Super Bowl team and we feel they are trending in that direction. 10* (463) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our AAC Game of the Year. North Texas has won three straight games including their last two in the AAC to open 2-0 in the conference and it is now 5-1 overall. The lone loss came at Texas Tech which was the one game the Mean Green offense was slowed down as they are No. 5 in the country in total offense and No. 14 in scoring offense even though they are just No. 46 in Offensive EPA. Quarterback Chandler Morris has upped his game with a 11:1 TD:INT ratio in his last three games after a 9:6 ratio in his first three games. Their defense is the concern as they come in ranked No. 96 in Defensive EPA but they have the ability to score points and outscore opponents. This is a big advantage in the betting markets when getting double digits which is the case here. Memphis came into the season as the favorites to win the AAC and it is also off to a 5-1 start but the one loss was a conference defeat against Navy. The offense has been a bit of a disappointment as the Tigers are No. 68 in Offensive EPA while ranking right around No. 50 in total offense and scoring offense. The surprise has been the defense which is No. 21 overall and No. 13 in points allowed but those are skewed when looking at the expected points added as the Defensive EPA drops all the down to No. 86. While they will get their yards and points on offense, the defense is vulnerable in this matchup as they were exposed by Navy and will be exposed again here. 10* (359) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. Typically, in a matchup such as this we look toward the running games and line of scrimmage but both Georgia and Texas are ranked in the top 20 in both Offensive and Defensive Rushing EPA with the Longhorns having a slight edge but it is the other side where Texas can flourish. One big factor heading into this game is the big advantage for the Texas passing game as the Bulldogs have been barely above average in Defensive Passing EPA as they are No. 59 after allowing Mississippi St. quarterback Michael Van Buren to throw for 306 yards with three touchdowns. This is not ideal facing a real quarterback with a capable backup if need be as between Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, the Longhorns are ranked No. 6 in Offensive Passing EPA. On the other side, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has had a great season but he has not been at the same level as last season with his efficiency being down as he has already tossed five interceptions after throwing only six all of last season and his completion percentage is down five percent. This is not a huge deal against an average defense but this is not an average defense he is facing and he has struggled against pressure and now going against the No. 4 ranked Pressure Rate Defense in the country. Put this game in Athens and it might be a different story but in Austin, Texas has a huge edge let alone in their first SEC night game. The Longhorns were clearly not looking ahead to this game as they rolled over Oklahoma and while that could be a lookahead normally, not in this spot. 10* (402) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Oklahoma is coming off a bad loss against Texas which was not a disheartening close defeat and we expect a rebound here in a great spot heading home. The Sooners are clearly not on the same level as the Longhorns this season as they are now 4-2, the first loss coming against Tennessee at home where they closed as a 5.5-point underdog and now there is a less than a 10-point swing from then to this next home game and Tennessee and South Carolina are not within 10 points of each other, especially in this spot. Coming off big games can hurt a team emotionally but not Oklahoma as it has won 23 of it last 25 games coming off the Texas game including 12-1 at home and over the last nine games coming off a Texas loss, the Sooners have won their last nine games. This line is too low in this one. South Carolina is coming off a tough loss at Alabama in a game it had its chances but had a couple bad calls go against them. That is a defeat which is tough to recover from and it was now the Gamecocks third loss in their last four games, the lone win coming against 1-6 Akron. They did play LSU tough in a three-point loss and beat what was then a good Kentucky team but this is the worst scenario against a team ready to pour it on. This is the first back-to-back road game situation for South Carolina this season as it was coming off three straight home games prior to the Alabama game and while we saw an awful effort against Mississippi in a lookahead spot with the Tide on deck, the Gamecocks are in a sandwich letdown spot now. 10* (366) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for out CFB Supreme Annihilator. UCLA is off to one of its worst starts in program history with a lot of that having to do with playing the No. 1 ranked schedule in the country. It was going to be an expected down year for the Bruins anyway but they are now 1-5 and easily could be 0-6 if not for a 16-13 comeback win in their opener against Hawaii. While the teams on their schedule have been tough, the travel aspect of it has been brutal as they have had to go to Hawaii, LSU and Penn St. and now have to head back east again following a home loss against Minnesota. The 22,000+ miles they will log this season is the most of any team in the country and that is already showing its effects and UCLA falls into another tough spot based on opponent. Rutgers opened the season 4-0 with a pair of solid wins over Virginia Tech and Washington but it has dropped its last two games, a tough 14-7 loss at Nebraska and then a 42-7 blowout loss at home against Wisconsin last week. The offense had been rolling in the first four games yet has gotten shut down the last two weeks and the Scarlet Knights still come in No. 43 in Offensive EPA. They had a good matchup last week against the Badgers and got nothing going in the passing game but have another solid matchup here against another bad defense. Their defense has been strong with last week notwithstanding as they are No. 40 in Defensive EPA and face an offense that has yet to score more than 17 points. 10* (372) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Late Powerhouse. We faded BYU on Saturday and despite the 41-19 win, the Cougars outgained the Wildcats by only 398-389 yards as they benefitted from four Arizona turnovers including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. This has been a recurring thing all season as they have now forced 14 turnovers which has led to either scores or short fields and that helped bolster their scoring. BYU is ranked No. 30 in scoring offense but just No. 72 in total offense which proves that and prior to the Arizona game where they won the yardage battle by only nine yards, they were outgained in their two previous games against Kansas St. and Baylor and this is not sustainable to winning. The Cougars are now 6-0 straight up and ATS and this continues to theory to fade because of overpriced lines. Oklahoma St. was one of the favorites to contend in the Big 12 Conference but have fallen to 0-3 after their third straight loss. The Cowboys had a tough three-point loss to start this skid and the last two losses have been by 22 and 24 points so this trend cannot continue and this is the spot to end that with plenty of points to take on top of it. They have nine giveaways with eight of those being interceptions from quarterback Alan Bowman and this needs to be cleaned up. Even more troublesome is preseason Heisman Trophy candidate running back Ollie Gordon has rushed for more than 50 yards only once in his last five games. It will not be easy against this defense which is very good but not elite against the run. The streaks come to an end here. 10* (321) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. How bad have the Saints become? Their 91 points scored in their first two games were tied for the third most since the NFL merger and those other three teams finished the season a combined 36-8 with none having more than three losses and the 2024 Saints are now 2-4 so the drastic regression has been historical and there are no signs of improving. The Saints came into last week No. 8 in Defensive DVOA and have fallen to No. 14 after the dismal performance last week and have gone from No. 4 to No. 11 in Net DVOA. New Orleans has a better matchup for its defense this week but it will not be enough to make up for an offense that has problems all over the place. The Saints have the second worst offensive line in the NFL which will be an issue for quarterback Spencer Rattler who had a rough first start as his 243 yards passing were a façade as he threw two interceptions while completing 55 percent of his passes and posted a 60.7 passer rating. Now it has been officially ruled that he will be without his top two receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed while Taysom Hill is doubtful. The Broncos had their three-game winning streak snapped against the Chargers last week as they fell behind 23-0 and tried to make it interesting with 16 fourth quarter points but ran out of time. The offense could get nothing going against the No. 3 ranked Chargers defense in DVOA but have a much easier matchup this week. Quarterback Bo Nix struggled in the rain against the Jets but his other three starts over his last four games have resulted in passer ratings of 85.0, 117.2 and 84.9. Defensively, the Broncos come in No. 7 in DVOA with a high pressure rate that should totally smother the Saints offense. 10* (311) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. Marshall is coming off a brutal loss, blowing a 23-3 lead, allowing 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to lose by a point against Georgia Southern. How will they respond is the question as they can pick themselves or keep feeling those effects and it is most likely the latter as the Thundering Herd have not been impressive. Before that beat a surprisingly bad Appalachian St. team and Western Michigan, which recently struggled with Ball St. and Akron. They were favored by 3 and 3.5 in those games and are now laying over a touchdown which is too big of an adjustment. They fall into a great play against spot as they are 5-0-1 ATS and those are streaks I love going against because the number is skewed because of that. Georgia St. has lost two straight games which is also helping with the value. The Panthers are now 2-3 with one win coming against Chattanooga which is no big deal but the other win came against Vanderbilt which is now looking like a really good win. The metrics show they are not far off in this matchup as they are just 15 spots behind Marshall in Offensive EPA and only nine spots back in Defensive EPA. Quarterback Christian Veilleux leads a strong passing game that is No. 35 in the country and can always keep the backdoor wide open if it comes down to that. The only concern is they have played four straight home games but the overreaction value in the line makes them a take getting over a touchdown with the public going to be heavily on the undefeated ATS team. 10* (315) Georgia St. Panthers

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. The winner of this game moves into a tie with Liberty for first place in C-USA with a 3-0 record and with the short price, the team that wins the line of scrimmage wins the game and that is Sam Houston St. which also has other intangible advantages to cover the small margin. The Bearkats opened their FBS tenure last season 0-8 but they have gone 8-2 since then with the lone loss coming against UCF this season and at Western Kentucky last season which brings in the revenge angle. Sam Houston St. is No. 11 in the country in rushing offense and are facing another defense that cannot stop the run and it should once again have a big game on the ground. The Bearkats have had an extra week to prepare for this game and that is an even bigger edge playing at home with no travel disruptions. Western Kentucky opened the season with a blowout loss against Alabama and while it has gone 4-1 since then, those wins have to be examined. The first one came against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS and two others came against UTEP and Middle Tennessee St. which are a combined 1-11. While the Toledo win might look good, the Rockets are not that good having just lost to Buffalo. The Hilltoppers lost quarterback T.J. Finley in the Middle Tennessee St. games and while Caden Veltkamp has put up big yardage numbers, he is not taking care of the ball with six touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games. Additionally, they cannot run the ball as they are No. 103 in the country in rushing offense. 10* (308) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. Conference USA has the distinction of being the worst conference at the FBS level, just below the MAC with a 56.6 win percentage no thanks to four teams sitting the bottom with a combined record of 2-21, the only two wins coming against teams from the FCS. This includes a 4-19 record against the number and two of these teams square off on Tuesday in the ugliest game of the entire Week Eight schedule and we are playing the number. This is the first season in FBS for Kennesaw St. and to no surprise, the Owls are off to a 0-5 start. This is one of the two remaining games they will have a chance to win and they are catching double digits despite our two sets of power ratings have this line at 5.0 and 5.4 so there is plenty of value. Neither side has played well and Kennesaw St. has a Net EPA ranking of No. 129 but there is not a big disparity in this matchup. Middle Tennessee St. is 1-5 as it owns one of those two FCS victories, a narrow seven-point victory over Tennessee Tech as a 24.5-point favorite to open the season. The Blue Raiders were picked to finish just above the Owls in C-USA and they are living up to those expectations although to their credit, they have faced Mississippi, Duke and Memphis. Still, they are ranked No. 127 in Net EPA and these ratings do take schedules into consideration and they have lost their two conference games by 27 and 28 points. There will be no home field edge on a Tuesday night and they are at a rest disadvantage as Kennesaw St. has been off since October 4 while the Blue Raiders have a quick turnaround having played this past Thursday. 10* (303) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This is a matchup of strength against strength when it comes to the Bills having the ball. They are No. 3 in Offensive EPA, trailing only Washington and Baltimore heading into Week Six but they have struggled the last two weeks and now have their biggest test. The Ravens came into the week ranked No. 22 in Defensive Efficiency while the Texans came in No. 16 and now Buffalo faces a Jets defense ranked No. 4. New York allowed 23 points but one of the touchdowns was from the defense while the 253 yards allowed to Minnesota was easily a season low for the Vikings. Bills quarterback is listed on the injury report but with a left hand and ankle injury and not for the concussion that he likely received last week but not reported so we will see how that pans out. Additionally, running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir are both limited as questionable being limited in practice. The Jets struggled on offense in London but they played against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA and they now face a Buffalo defense ranked No. 15 in EPA and continue to be banged up with injuries. With a new play caller, we should see quarterback Aaron Rodgers have the offense opened up more. Also, Buffalo is second to last against the run. It is no coincidence that the last two Buffalo losses have come against the two best teams they have faced and both were on the road. This marks their third straight road game which could be an edge in the fact they have lost the last two which puts them in a desperate position but it is New York with the bigger intangible after head coach Robert Saleh was fired which puts the players in a good position to prove some things. 10* (288) New York Jets

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Dallas is coming off a fortunate win over Pittsburgh as it had to rally twice in the fourth quarter, culminating with a winning touchdown with just 20 seconds remaining. To their credit, the Cowboys outgained the Steelers 445-226 but the offense sputtered in the redzone and they committed three turnovers. They improved to 3-0 on the road but remain winless at home at 0-2 with losses coming against the Saints and Ravens. They have a much more difficult matchup this week as their defense will not be facing inept rushing and passing offenses. Dallas will again be without linebacker Micah Parsons and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence which is not ideal going up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The secondary is also banged up but cornerback Daron Bland is set to return. Detroit is coming off its bye week following a win over Seattle where it improved to 3-1 on the season. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball as Detroit is No. 12 in Defensive EPA which is certainly far from horrible and they are equally good against the run and pass so it is not a concern for us. The Lions will bring pressure against a bad offensive line and while Dak Prescott has the ability to put up big numbers like he did last week, his lack of execution is the downfall. Dallas will have the emotional edge of being back home but they are at a disadvantage in all other aspects. 10* (283) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chargers opened the season 2-0 although those wins were against Las Vegas and Carolina and they then dropped their next two games at Pittsburgh and at home against Kansas City. The bye week came at the best time with a chance to work on the offense that has fallen to No. 24 in Offensive EPA and give quarterback Justin Herbert an extra week to rest his ankle. He has not looked good in the new Jim Harbaugh offense but some of the issues can be attributed to the offensive line that has been banged up. They were without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against the Chiefs but both practiced this week and should be able to return. The Chargers are tied with Minnesota at No. 1 in Defensive EPA and have an excellent matchup in this spot. Denver has surprisingly won three straight games after opening the season 0-2. The Broncos rolled over an unfocused Tampa Bay team and should have lost against the Jets which missed a game winning field goal late while taking out an injury plagued Raiders team last week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had his struggles and the Broncos come in tied for No. 27 in Offensive Passing EPA which puts him in another tough situation. Additionally, the Broncos will be without center Luke Wattenberg and tackle Alex Palczewski which is bad news against the Los Angeles defense. The Chargers defense was short-handed against Kansas City as well with safety Dewin James serving a one game suspension and linebacker Joey Bosa out with a hip injury but they will return this week. 10* (277) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville which snapped a two-game winning streak but did get the cover based on the closing line to make it three straight winners against the number. The challenge will be more difficult this week however. Indianapolis hopes to get quarterback Anthony Richardson back but we still do not know if he will go as he will be a gametime decision which means Joe Flacco could get his second straight start after having a monster game against the Jaguars. Now the Colts go from playing the No. 32 ranked team in Defensive EPA to the No. 6 ranked team in Defensive EPA and the Titans lead the league in total defense and passing defense. Indianapolis will be without running back Jonathan Taylor so a second straight week. Tennessee is coming off its bye week following its first win of the season at Miami 31-12. While the Titans are just 1-3, they have won the stats in three games, outgaining the Bears and the Jets in their first two games. This is mostly in part to its stout defense as the offense does remain a concern. There are injury issues at quarterback here as well with Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury which could force a Mason Rudolph start. Rudolph did not put up huge numbers against the Dolphins but he managed the game well and protected the football and whichever quarterback gets the nod, they will be facing a Colts defense that made Trevor Lawrence look like an All Pro and one that is ranked No. 28 in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is coming off a pair of home wins including a huge 23-20 victory last week against Buffalo as it kicked a 59-yard field goal as time expired. The Texans are now 4-1 on the season but they are one of the worst winning teams in the league as they come in Ranked No. 17 in Net EPA. The defense has been slightly better than the offense, No. 17 compared to No. 20 but clearly there is no dominant strength on either side. Both sides are dinged up with the offensive line likely to be down at least one starter and running back Joe Mixon is still hobbled with an ankle injury. The Texans are tied for No. 11 in Defensive Passing EPA but the bad news is that they will be without two starters in the secondary as safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter have been ruled out. The Patriots look to present a good matchup for Houston as their offense is tied for No. 27 in Offensive EPA and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out with a foot injury. What makes this the spot to play on New England as it is making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye making his first start. Houston will have had a tough time game planning for him with nothing to look at and while Maye will likely see a lot of pressure, he has the scrambling ability to counter that. We are getting the line movement we were looking for even though it has gone against us, coming down to 6.5 points in some places but this is with 84 percent of the money coming in on the Texans, giving us the RLM. 10* (270) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This could be considered a make or break game for both teams as Cleveland cannot afford to fall to 1-5 while the Eagles will fall under .500 with a loss. This being said, the Eagles have significant edges all over the place which is a reason this line steamed up early in the week. Philadelphia is coming off a loss at Tampa Bay in its last game but injuries played a big factor in that with receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith sidelined along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. All three will be back on the field following their bye week and this will be the first home game for Philadelphia in a month. The offense will have a chance to finally break out even though they are still tied for No. 9 in Offensive EPA despite the recent scoring struggles and injuries. While the Eagles are back home, the Browns are playing their third straight road game with the first two being disastrous against the Raiders and Commanders. Cleveland is now 1-4 with the lone win coming against Jacksonville that easily could have been a loss. The Browns relied on their top ranked defense last season but they are just No. 14 in Defensive EPA this year and it is clear that Myles Garrett is not right and this is a game where Jalen Hurts can thrive. The bigger issue for Cleveland is the offense, namely quarterback Deshawn Watson who looks lost. The Browns are ahead of only Tennessee and Carolina in Offensive Passing EPA and while the running game is better, it is not by much as they are No. 20 in Offensive Rushing EPA. This certainly is blowout potential. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Primetime Dominator. Iowa St. is off to a 5-0 start following a pair of wins over Houston and Baylor to open Big 12 Conference action with a very favorable schedule the rest of the way to have the inside track for its first championship game since 2020. The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked No. 9 in defensive EPA with five SEC teams ranked ahead of them. They have yet to allow more than 21 points which has enabled the offense to move in a non-pressured way and is an underrated unit. Iowa St. is No. 20 in Offensive EPA behind quarterback Rocco Becht, the second highest rated quarterback in the conference. They come in as the short favorite where they are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons in this conference role. West Virginia has won two straight games following its monumental collapse against rival Pittsburgh where it blew a 10-point lead with just over three minutes remaining. The Mountaineers do have the significant home field situation with this being a nationally televised night game they have not had success in these spots, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as conference underdogs of a touchdown or less. West Virginia has outgained its last four opponents but all well down in the metrics sitting at No. 35 in Offensive EPA and No. 66 in Defensive EPA. 10* (123) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. UL-Monroe came into the season with a betting win total of 2.5 following a 2-10 season last year and returning just seven starters overall. The Warhawks win over James Madison last week moved them to 4-1 and we can call this a flipped record as they have been outgained in three straight games. They won the yardage battle against Jackson St. of the FCS by just 50 yards and against UAB by only 37 yards and despite Texas on the schedule, they have played a schedule ranked No. 104. Now they come in as a favorite against a team from the FBS by the most points they have put down since 2019 as this could be the biggest overreaction number of the week after getting outgained by close to 150 yards last week. Southern Mississippi has lost three straight games by double digits so this is not a quality team by any stretch but this is a play on the number and the game situation where we catch a big underdog with a low total, the second lowest on the entire board behind UCLA/Minnesota. The Golden Eagles do have one of the worst defenses in the country but face an offense that cannot take advantage, especially one that has averaged fewer than 100 ypg rushing the last three games and likely still celebrating the upset from last week. 10* (165) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. BYU is one of five teams that has covered every game this season and by an average of 16.4 ppg which is the biggest margin of those five teams. The Cougars are a team right now that is totally overvalued as they have been one of the luckiest teams especially over the last two games. While the offense has scored 38 and 34 points, they have generated just over 300 ypg and that will not do against the second best defense it has seen this season. The first was against Kansas St. where they had only 241 total yards but was picked by the defense and special teams and that defense is in for test against the best offense it has faced. The Cougars are off a bye week and in this case, it seems like a detrimental time for their first bye to come into play. Arizona is coming off a tough loss against Texas Tech as it outgained the Red Raiders 422-331 but had three costly turnovers and were held to six field goal attempts which included one miss. It was a huge disappointment on third down yet the Wildcats remain No. 18 in Offensive EPA so the offensive scoring numbers over the last four games are completely skewed as the raw numbers show them No. 54 in total offense but just No. 85 in scoring offense. 10* (177) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Louisville was unable to bounce back from its loss against Notre Dame as it lost to SMU to fall to 1-1 in the ACC. Despite the two losses by a touchdown, the Cardinals come in as touchdown favorites for a second straight week and there is actually value in this number as they are a top 20 team in Net EPA and both sets of power ratings have them as double-digit favorites. Louisville is No. 15 in Offensive EPA, led by quarterback Tyler Shough who is a transfer from Texas Tech but was plagued by injuries in his time there and has tossed 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The last two games have come against defenses ranked in the top 20 in EPA and they take a big step down here. Virginia is off to a surprising 4-1 start and those four victories have surpassed their win total from each of the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 2-0 in the ACC after going 3-12 the last two years but they have been very fortunate as they rallied from 14-point deficits in both games. Virginia defeated Boston College 24-14 last week thanks to a +3 turnover margin which included a 40-yard touchdown on a fumble return in the fourth quarter to ice the game. The Cavaliers have played a much softer schedule as this is the first game they are underdogs and it is for a very good reason. 10* (139) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Cincinnati is coming off its first bye week following a three-point loss at Texas Tech despite outgaining the Red Raiders and generating 55 yards of total offense. The Bearcats dropped to 3-2 with the two losses coming by four points combined and they are in a great spot this week playing with double revenge off two losses by a combined six points. Cincinnati has already matched its win total from last season with those three victories in 2023 being the fewest since a 3-8 season in 1999. Central Florida is coming off a loss against Florida which was its second straight double-digit loss and this will now be its second straight game facing a team coming in with extended rest. The Knights locker rook is the real concern here as they already have six players that decided to redshirt prior to the Florida game and all have stated they will be entering the transfer portal which is not a good indicator of what is going on internally. Central Florida easily could be rising a three-game losing streak as it rallied from a double-digit deficit against TCU and scored the game-winning touchdown with just 36 seconds left in the one point victory against the Horned Frogs. This is typically one of the better home field edges in college football but we do not like where the Knights are shifting this early in the season. 10* (151) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. San Jose St. has been a pleasant surprise this season as it is off to a 4-1 start but the Spartans have played a schedule ranked No. 139 in the country and that includes a game against a very solid Washington St. team. That game resulted in a double-overtime loss where quarterback Emmett Brown went off for 375 yards in part to having one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash but Brown was benched last week against Nevada and the quarterback situation is unsettling going into this game. All four of the Spartans wins have been unimpressive with the best coming against Air Force which has turned into one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Colorado St. opened the season with a 52-0 loss against Texas but has gone 2-2 since then with the losses coming against a very improved Colorado team and then a touchdown loss against Oregon St. last week on the road in double overtime. After six straight losing seasons, this is the chance to get back to .500 with the easiest remaining schedule in the conference with only one game against a likely conference contender in Fresno St. This line has flipped with the Rams now slight favorites despite nearly three quarters of the money on San Jose St. and the reverse line move seals it. 10* (176) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is another game where we have seen a line switch as San Diego St. opened as the favorite and actually went up during the week but now Wyoming is a coin flip chalk. The Aztecs are coming off a win over Hawaii despite getting outgained 356-323 and that was the fourth straight game they have been outgained in. The only positive on the schedule was the game against Texas A&M-Commerce of the FCS so that has skewed the overall numbers and yet San Diego St. is still No. 129 in Offensive EPA and No. 119 in Defensive EPA. The offense has generated more points in each of their last four games but are still No. 114 in scoring and have averaged only 14.5 ppg in their last four games. Wyoming picked up its first win of the season in a 31-19 victory over Air Force which is far from a good team but the defensive effort was another encouraging one. The Cowboys have allowed 237, 138/ and 320 total yards in three of their last four games with the lone exception getting run over by North Texas on the road. Wyoming has outgained all three opponents at home including BYU despite losing 34-14 which was one of the skewed final scores that have to be taken into account. This is a great spot again for Wyoming in a tough visiting environment. 10* (192) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our MAC Game of the Year. Miami Ohio is coming off its been season in over a decade but now at 1-4, it has already surpassed it loss total from all of last season. The RedHawks are coming off a 10-point loss at Toledo last week which was the first conference game for both teams and the Rockets were able to get their revenge from the MAC Championship loss from last season. The lone victory for Miami came against Massachusetts in overtime which is far from a quality victory but now they enter this game coming in with the No. 34 ranked schedule played so it has been a brutal early stretch for what is now a battle tested team in need of a victory. Eastern Michigan is just the opposite as it is off to a 4-1 start with its lone defeat coming at Washington. The Eagles have won their last three games since then but those victories came against Jacksonville St., St. Francis (PA) of the FCS and Kent St. and the of the three FBS victories, the best came against a team ranked No. 102 in Net EPA and Miami is ranked well ahead of all of those teams with a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball. Eastern Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS and that is the streak to fade in this case as it is one of only six teams in the country that has yet to not cover a game. 10* (121) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. North Carolina is coming off a 10-point loss against Pittsburgh where it was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and the Tar Heels have now lost three straight games following a 3-0 start so this is where we find what this team is made of. They were underdogs last week at home against the Panthers and are now bigger home underdogs against a team ranked lower in our two sets of power ratings. This number is overadjusted because North Carolina is 0-5-1 ATS, one of five teams that have yet to cover a number this season. The spreads have significantly decreased from the first game to now which is partly a direct effect from the lack of cover success. Georgia Tech opened the season with at the time was thought to be a huge upset over Florida St. but with what the Seminoles have done since, it was far from a quality win. The Yellow Jackets are now 4-2 following a win over Duke which handed the Blue Devils their first loss of the season and they improved to 3-0 at home but hit the road again where they are 0-2 in true road games. The offense was one of the best in the country last season but has taken a step back and the most concerning thing is on the other side as the Yellow Jackets are ranked No. 80 in Defensive EPA. 10* (162) North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa crushed us last week in a 35-7 loss against Ohio St. after trailing just 7-0 at halftime. The Hawkeyes are now 3-2 and return home for the first time in a month in a fantastic spot looking for the rebound. The offense got nothing going against the top defense in the country as they were held to a season low 226 total yards and were limited to fewer than 200 yards rushing for the first time this season. The passing offense remains a concern as it is now No. 127 in the country but now faces an overrated Washington defense based on the schedule. The Hawkeyes have been awesome at home in this spot, going 31-18-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Washington is a player in its first season the Big 10 as it is now 2-1 following a 27-17 win over Michigan, a game it has had circled since the schedule came out following its National Championship loss to the Wolverines last season. The Huskies are now in a dangerous spot coming off that emotional win and having to yet again travel across multiple time zones, the first coming in a loss at Rutgers. Washington does have the better offense but it has come against a much softer schedule and while it lit up the Michigan defense for 429 yards last week, the games at home are a totally different scenario. 10* (200) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. The Utah quarterback situation remains a mess as the uncertain health of Cam Rising has been ongoing for the last 19 months dating back to a knee injury in the 2023 Rose Bowl. He made two starts but was injured in the second one against Baylor and has not seen the field since then and his status for Friday remains up in the air and shutting him down for the season is a possibility according to head coach Kyle Whittingham. Freshman Isaac Wilson has started the last three games and has completed only 55.7 percent of his passes for 830 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions so it has not been good. The last games resulted in a 23-10 loss to Arizona and now the Utes are favored by nearly the same amount on the road that is nearly identical in the power rankings as Arizona. Arizona St. is also 4-1 with its loss coming at Texas Tech two games back despite outgaining the Red Raiders. The Sun Devils have covered only one of their last three games but this is their first time as underdogs and at home no less. After going 3-9 in each of the last two seasons, Arizona St. has been one of the most improved teams in the country as it is averaging over 16 more ppg and allowing eight fewer ppg than last season. The Sun Devils are 49 spots higher in Offensive EPA and 7 spots lower in Defensive EPA than Utah and its Net EPA of No. 27 is significantly better than that of the Utah Net EPA ranking of No. 63. The national spotlight will be on Arizona St. and it will want this one more than a few others as they will be out for revenge following a 55-3 loss to the Utes last season which also officially ended their bowl chances as it was their seventh loss of the season. 10* (120) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This number opened at 3.5 and has not moved all week with the majority of the action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco is off to a 2-3 start following a loss against Arizona and it hits the road where it has dropped both games at Minnesota and Los Angeles with the two wins coming against the Jets, that just fired their coach, and the Patriots, arguably the worst team in the AFC. They have fallen to No. 8 in Net EPA and No. 9 in Total DVOA and injuries remain an issue as they hit the road following two straight home games and playing on a short week. Seattle has had a strange couple weeks as it dominated Detroit and lost and followed that up losing the time of possession against the Giants by nearly a full quarter as it ran the ball only 11 times. This is not the gameplan to have success with one of the top running backs in the league in Kenneth Walker after having only five carries last week and Seattle has now lost 10 of 16 games when he gets fewer than 10 carries while going 15-8 in 23 games when he carries the ball 10 or more times. Despite the two recent losses, Seattle is ranked ahead of the 49ers in Total DVOA as No. 8 with an offense that is ranked No. 6. While the defense is not at that same level, they have improved under new head coach Mike McDonald, as they are No. 13 in DVOA this season compared to No. 28 last year. The Seahawks are 25-14-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season. 10* (106) Seattle Seahawks