02-10-25 |
North Carolina +6 v. Clemson |
|
65-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #881 North Carolina over Clemson (7p.m., Monday, February 10 ESPN) Always risky taking North Carolina, but we will on Monday. Clemson is coming off a hard fought victory over Duke on Saturday and feel they could be a letdown for them in this spot. Thus we will grab the two field goals in this game, as Carolina has a remarkable all-time record against Clemson.
|
02-09-25 |
Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
22-40 |
Loss |
-105 |
149 h 5 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #109 Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 9 FOX) Not going to go into much detail, but the fact is I just cannot bet my money against Patrick Mahomes. It has worked well in the last two Super Bowls, and he just does whatever is needed to win the game in front of him. I like the Chiefs’ defense especially their pas rush and they proved against Buffalo that they could stop the tush push. Until we are proven otherwise, we will bet our many with the two win defending champions.
|
02-08-25 |
Spurs v. Magic -3 |
Top |
111-112 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
Orlando has won two straight meetings and three of four, and all the wins came by 10 or more points. Orlando has only two wins in their last eight games. But they have just finished a six-game road set and the friendly confines of home should be good for this team as they are 15-9 on the season here at Kia Center. The Spurs haven’t been much better with three wins in their last 10, and this is a very tough road B2B after they lost in Charlotte last night as a double-digit favorite. Not only is this a B2B with both games on the road, but Orlando is a strong and physical defensive team that should wear the Spurs down late. Orlando has dealt with so many injuries this season but are relatively healthy now. We expect a strong showing from the home team tonight.
|
02-07-25 |
Predators v. Blackhawks +1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Blackhawks have won only two of their last eight. But this is probably one of the few teams in sports where morale victories mean something, and Chicago has had quite a few of those lately. They lost to Edmonton, Tampa Bay and Carolina at home, all in overtime. They lost by two to Minnesota only on a Wild empty netter and were in that game all the way through. They beat the Lightning on the road and also the Knights at home. They also lost by only one in a road matchup against the Hurricanes. While it may not show in the standings, this team seems to be turning a corner to where they could actually be a good team next season. Nashville is the big road favorite here, but the reality is that the Predators have been wildly disappointing and are in reality only five points ahead of the Hawks in the standings. They are among the three worst road teams in the league, along with these Blackhawks and the Sharks. They have lost five straight overall entering this matchup.
|
02-07-25 |
Cavs v. Wizards +18 |
|
134-124 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Wizards have won and covered in three straight, so they will come in to this one with some confidence. Cleveland has pretty much been a covering machine this season but they have started to become overvalued as their shooting has cooled off a bit. They have covered in four of their last nine games. Washington has covered in three of the last four meetings, and they kept it to a 10-point deficit in a meeting in Cleveland in December. We are pretty much going to back any home team getting this many points.
|
02-06-25 |
North Dakota State -2.5 v. UMKC |
|
78-72 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
5 Unit Play. Take #819 North Dakota State over UMKC (8p.m., Thursday, February 6) I always like using the Bison in Summit League Play. They are always a top team in the league and should be able to win this game by 6-8 points. The Roos have lost 6 straight games and that includes a loss to the Bison during this losing streak. They are just playing out the string of games and I see them struggling to win any of their remaining games.
|
02-05-25 |
Rhode Island -1 v. Fordham |
|
79-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #707 Rhode Island -1 over Fordham (7p.m., Wednesday, February 5 ESPN+) No bet against Fordham is a bad bet during A10 play. The Rams are 2-7 and are coming off a tough loss to St Bonaventure last time out. There will be a carryover effect into this game. Rhode Island got off to a hot start but has not been playing well of late. This is a get well game for them and expect a decisive road victory.
|
02-04-25 |
Drake -4.5 v. Murray State |
|
55-45 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #633 Drake over Murray State (7p.m., Tuesday, February 4 ESPN2) Will not overthink this play, Drake is 20-2 and the best team in the MVC. Murray State is a bottom half team in the conference but they did beat Drake in Des Moines earlier this season. Revenge will be served tonight as the Bulldogs gets closer to the No. 1 seed and what may be a winner take all tournament.
|
02-03-25 |
Hawks v. Pistons -4 |
Top |
132-130 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
The Pistons are on a back-to-back, but in our opinion they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers. They have been pretty solid in recent back-to-backs, and they are facing a Hawks team that is banged up, missing their best player, and in an absolute tailspin, having lost eight straight games. Detroit has been building some momentum and has won and covered in two straight, and this is a great spot for them to make it three in a row. They match up well with the Hawks and already have two wins against them this season. The most recent meeting was less than two weeks ago in Atlanta, a 10-point Pistons win. Atlanta had to rally big time in the fourth quarter with a 29-17 quarter just to make the final look respectable. In that game, Capela notched a double-double and him and Young combined for almost 30 points, and both players are likely to miss this game tonight. The lack of rest shouldn’t faze the Pistons and we expect a comfortable win tonight.
|
02-02-25 |
Grizzlies +3.5 v. Bucks |
|
132-119 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee looked like they were back to playoff form with a stretch of solid play but now the injuries are piling up again and they were blown out in their last two games, to the Spurs and Blazers no less. Morant is likely out here for the Grizzlies, but they have proven they can get the job done with multiple rosters starting. They have won and covered six straight meetings.
|
02-01-25 |
Lakers v. Knicks -10.5 |
|
128-112 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
It is always one of the biggest games of the season whenever the Lakers visit Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are the much better team and they will face a Lakers team that is very banged up at the moment. We don’t see anything other than a blowout here. The Knicks are rested and absolutely rolling right now as they have won five straight and just won their last three by double digits. And look at the opponents: Denver, Memphis and Sacramento. That is playoff form right now and this team is establishing themselves as a serious championship contender.
|
02-01-25 |
Wisconsin -2 v. Northwestern |
Top |
75-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #645 Wisconsin over Northwestern (2p.m., Saturday, February 1 FS1) Wisconsin struggles when teams have multiple big men that are good and I do not see Northwestern fitting that bill. The Wildcats have been struggling against good teams, losing 3 of their last 4 games including a home loss to Rutgers last time out. Wisconsin beat that same Rutgers by 12 points earlier in New Jersey. Wisconsin can score points this season averaging 82 points per game and I am just not sure Northwestern can come close to getting that mark. Lay the small change with the better team today in Evanston.
|
01-31-25 |
Clippers v. Hornets +13 |
|
112-104 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Hornets have covered in four of their last five as double digit dogs. We like this Clippers team a lot but are they going to get up for this game after playing teams like the Spurs, Suns and Celtics recently? This is the biggest line the Clippers have faced on the road this season, and they know they can probably win this one without giving full effort. The Hornets have lost but covered the last two meetings and three of the last four. We simply think this is too many points tonight, and there is a good chance the home team keeps this one within double digits.
|
01-30-25 |
Sharks +1.5 v. Seattle Kraken |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-148 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
We were pondering taking the Sharks straight up on the moneyline here as the Kraken should not be laying this kind of price to any team. We think this game is definitely winnable for the Sharks. San Jose won’t get many road wins this season but they will win a game from time to time, and this looks like a winnable game for them. They have won three straight meetings and four of five.
|
01-30-25 |
Hawks +10 v. Cavs |
Top |
115-137 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA at not only winning games but covering them also, and it is very tough to go against them for wagers. We think it is justified tonight, however, and we think the Cavaliers are vulnerable. The Hawks have lost six straight and are very desperate for a win. They have played well in their last two games, however, with covers at Minnesota and vs. Houston, as they have had a tough schedule lately. The Cavs are on a back-to-back, while the Hawks are rested. Cleveland has won and covered two straight, but before that they were on a rare three-game losing streak without a cover, so they aren’t playing their best overall right now. The Hawks have also won and covered in three straight meetings. For our personal wagers, we might sprinkle a little on the moneyline also.
|
01-29-25 |
Wisconsin +6 v. Maryland |
|
68-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #667 Wisconsin +5 over Maryland (7p.m., Wednesday, January 29 BTN) This is just too many points to be giving to the 17th ranked team in the country. Wisconsin has the better offense in this game and expect them to be able to take this game down to the wire. Maryland was lucky to beat Indiana on Sunday and Wisconsin is a much better team.
|
01-28-25 |
Jazz +12.5 v. Warriors |
|
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
Utah has covered in three of the last four meetings. We think they are getting too many points again. The Jazz haven’t been playing well lately. It wasn’t long ago that they were covering a lot of games. They are coming off consecutive blowouts and we just think they are due for a competitive game. They have a winning record ATS this season and Golden State has not had many blowout wins lately outside of that Chicago game. The Warriors have covered only three of their last eight games, so the oddsmakers have them overrated right now.
|
01-28-25 |
Baylor v. BYU -3.5 |
|
89-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #652 BYU over Baylor (9p.m., Tuesday, January 28 ESPN2) The Cougars are coming off two straight blowout wins to get back on track. I see them making it three in a row, as Baylor is not as strong of a team as they have been in past years.
|
01-27-25 |
Iowa State v. Arizona -2 |
|
75-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 45 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #884 Arizona over Iowa State (10:30p.m., Monday, January 27 ESPN) Unranked team that is favored against the No. 3 team in the country is usually a strong indicator to lay the points. Arizona needs this win more than Iowa State does and they have a great home crowd that will be in play tonight in Tucson.
|
01-26-25 |
Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 |
Top |
29-32 |
Win
|
100 |
102 h 31 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #104 Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills (6:30p.m., Sunday, January 26 CBS) Buffalo has the momentum but Kansas City is the back-to-back champions, and they are playing this game at home. They also have the best playoff quarterback still playing and a great defense that can get to the quarterback, especially in the fourth quarter. We have ridden Kansas City the last few years and see no reason to stop using them with this low number. The Bills defense thrives on turnovers and if the Chiefs can take care of the football, they will grind out this victory. Buffalo beat Kansas City earlier this season, but Baltimore beat Buffalo earlier and we saw how the rematch went last Sunday night. The Chiefs have won 3 straight playoff games against the Bills. Just cannot in good faith put money going against QB Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.
|
01-26-25 |
Nebraska v. Wisconsin -6.5 |
|
55-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #844 Wisconsin -7.5 over Nebraska (1p.m., Sunday, January 26 BTN) Wisconsin got a bad whistle last time out at UCLA but home cooking should allow them to win this game by double digits. They are facing a former player and will want to show him they are the better team.
|
01-25-25 |
Bucks +3 v. Clippers |
|
117-127 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Just love the way the Bucks have been playing, and we had this line handicapped at PK so there is some value here. Milwaukee is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and making up for a slow start. They are a live underdog to win this one tonight. They play well against the Clippers traditionally. They have won eight of the last 10 meetings and covered in three straight. That is a long history of dominance since these teams don’t play each other often.
|
01-25-25 |
Kings v. Knicks -4 |
|
120-143 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Kings have been hot, but we think this is a very tough matchup for them. This is their third game in four days, and they looked like they were running out of steam on Thursday vs. the Nuggets. They will need everything in their arsenal to beat the Knicks at MSG, and we don’t see this matchup going well for them. The Knicks have won and covered the last two meetings and six of the last seven.
|
01-24-25 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies -10.5 |
|
126-139 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
We don’t often like to lay double digits in the NBA, but Memphis is the type of team that can put a massive score up against a banged up team like the Pelicans. Once again the Pels will be without their best player, and Murray is banged up as well. Memphis is 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite in their last six in this situation. They have won and covered in four of the last five meetings.
|
01-23-25 |
Blazers +8.5 v. Magic |
|
101-79 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
The Magic have been very poor on offense and we just don’t see them being able to score enough to cover this line tonight. They have scored 100 or less in four straight games. This team plays at the slowest pace in the league, and a low scoring game makes the points more valuable here. The Blazers have won and covered in their last two games, and they should come in confident they can keep this one close if not challenge for the win.
|
01-22-25 |
Wolves -2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
115-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
The Mavs have tons of injuries across their lineup and even if some of the questionable players hit the court, this team will be severely shorthanded tonight. The Timberwolves have been a bad team to bet on most of the season, but we have found if we pick the right spot for them that it can be advantageous and this looks like a good spot for them to pick up a comfortable win. They have had some losses lately as they have had a very tough schedule, but they have played well even in the losses and this team finally looks like it is gelling a bit with the roster additions. They have won and covered the last two visits to Dallas, and we think this could possibly be a 10-point-or-more victory.
|
01-21-25 |
Panthers v. Ducks +1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-117 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Ducks are the perfect team that you can ride on the puckline all season. They are only 18-22-6, so the public wants no part of betting on them, but they are the top team at covering the puckline on the season at 30-16. One of the rare games they didn’t cover was on Saturday against this same Panthers club. And not only is this a revenge spot since they just played, which is traditionally a strong spot for the losing team, but Anaheim gets this one at home after a long road trip. And another advantage is that sometimes the home team is in a bad spot after a long road trip as players have to attend to personal matters and might not have their mind 100 percent on the game, but that should not be an issue here as the Ducks have had two days off. And that Saturday 3-0 result for Florida included two third period goals, including an empty netter, so the match was pretty close throughout. Florida has dropped three of their last five, so they aren’t in top form right now. Before Saturday’s game, four of the previous five meetings were decided by a single goal, so these teams normally play a tight game. We think that will be the case tonight, and the Ducks have a strong chance for the outright win.
|
01-21-25 |
Wisconsin +4 v. UCLA |
|
83-85 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #665 Wisconsin over UCLA (9:30p.m., Tuesday, January 21 Peacock) Wisconsin is playing outstanding basketball at the moment and will enter this game having 7 straight games. UCLA has not played to their potential much of late and will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Big 10 Conference is much more physical than what the Bruins are used to and I see Wisconsin taking this game down to the wire and pulling it out late. The Badgers beat USC without their leading scorer doing anything in that game and this variety will allow them to cover the number on Tuesday night.
|
01-20-25 |
Bulls v. Clippers -6.5 |
|
112-99 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Clippers have won and covered in four straight meetings. The Bulls enter on a five-game losing streak. They have not covered any lines in their last four despite some generous lines by the oddsmakers. The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season and they have played very well in their shiny new building. They are a very focused team this season and are playing great fundamental basketball, and are well coached as well.
|
01-19-25 |
Ravens v. Bills +1.5 |
Top |
25-27 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 16 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #394 Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens (6:30p.m., Sunday, January 19 CBS) This is far and away the most anticipated matchup of the year. This is also a rematch from a meeting earlier this season and I expect the Bills to even up this series at one game apiece. Just do not believe Baltimore will be able to run through Buffalo like they did last week and in the first meetings this season. Buffalo has got to key on stopping the run and the Ravens will not have a healthy Zay Flowers for this game (he may play) but I do not see him being a factor. The weather and stadium favor the Bills greatly in this game. QB Jackson does not like the cold weather and was wearing a stocking cap in the first meeting despite it being in the low 60s. Tonight it will be in the single digits. Buffalo is 9-0 this season at home and now is the time for QB Allen and company to break through and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens defense has shown improvement but they have not faced anyone like Josh Allen during the later half of the season. Baltimore was 1-2 and Buffalo was 3-0 when they first met on September 29, meaning Baltimore needed that game more. That is not the case today, and the Bills Mafia will allow them to break through and win this game. Home underdog is too good to pass up.
|
01-19-25 |
Nuggets v. Magic +8.5 |
|
113-100 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
Orlando’s stock is down and they haven’t been playing well lately. Injuries have been a big problem here. But we think this is too many points. The Nuggets are an inconsistent team. They don’t care much about the regular season and this is a team built for the postseason. We don’t see them giving 100% effort here. Orlando has had a very tough schedule lately. But they have won three straight in this series and covered in seven straight. They play at the slowest pace in the league and we think defense will allow them to keep this one close tonight.
|
01-18-25 |
Texans v. Chiefs -8.5 |
|
14-23 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #388 Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Houston Texans (4:30p.m., Saturday, January 18 ABC) The Texans have had success in the wild card round, but they have not had much success in the divisional round. Kansas City has won 6 straight playoff games (6-0 ATS). Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 straight up and 13-5 ATS in the playoffs. Houston was not very good this season and Kansas City is getting healthy on defense. This will be a double-digit victory for the home team.
|
01-18-25 |
Wisconsin +2 v. USC |
|
84-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #691 Wisconsin +1 over Southern California (3p.m., Saturday, January 18 BTN) USC is playing better but I do not feel they are at the point where it should be a pick’em game against a traditional top conference team like Wisconsin. The Badgers have also won 6 straight game, and they will go on a scoring run at some point in this game and I am not sure USC will be able to keep pace. Still cannot overlook the fact that USC lost to Cal, Sainty Mary’s, New Mexico, Indiana, and Oregon this season. Wisconsin is better than all of those teams and USC just does not have much of a homecourt advantage at the Galen Center.
|
01-17-25 |
Magic v. Celtics -14.5 |
|
94-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
We have avoided Boston like the plague as they have been overrated by the oddsmakers and they have been a bad ATS team. But when they want to bring their A Game they can dominate any team in any given night. Considering they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raptors and also that the Magic beat them outright last meeting, this looks like a game that Boston will want to perform their best in. Orlando isn’t the team they should be this season with major injuries along their roster. We see a major blowout here.
|
01-16-25 |
UC-Davis v. Cal Poly -3.5 |
|
65-54 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #856 Cal Poly over UC Davis (10p.m., Thursday, January 16 ESPN+) The line in this game tells me something, as Cal Poly enters as the favorite despite being 0-6 in Big West play. This is a rematch and I expect the home team to win both of these meetings. Owen Koonce has been on a tear of late and if he gets 20+ tonight that should be enough to win this game for the Mustangs.
|
01-15-25 |
Texas v. Oklahoma -2.5 |
|
77-73 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
3 Unit Play. Take #754 Oklahoma over Texas (10p.m., Wednesday, January 15 SEC Network) Nothing better than two teams in the Midwest having a 9 p.m. local time tipoff. This is a straight fade on Texas, as I feel they are frauds, and their head coach is in over his head. The Sooners are also 0-3 in SEC play but I feel they are the better team in this matchup and cannot afford to lose another home conference game at this point of the season.
|
01-14-25 |
Thunder v. 76ers +11.5 |
|
118-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
Even though the Thunder keep covering some of these inflated lines, these numbers are starting to get ridiculous. Yes, Embiid is out here. But Philly still has some players and they will want to play their best here as OKC is really starting to have a target on their back. The Sixers have won eight of the last nine meetings outright and they have covered in six of the last eight. Philly hasn’t been great lately but they are rarely getting blown out recently and we think they fight hard here and keep this one within double digits.
|
01-14-25 |
Sharks v. Red Wings -1.5 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
Detroit has covered the puckline in four of their last five wins in this series. San Jose has been really good ATS this season but we feel as the season drags on that this trend will reverse. They have dropped 5 of the last 8 ATS and this is a game the Wings know they can win and win big. Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the league and they won’t have a letdown today.
|
01-14-25 |
Illinois v. Indiana +3.5 |
|
94-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
3 Unit Play. Take #618 Indiana over Illinois (7p.m., Tuesday, January 14 Peacock) Homecourt in the Big 10 means everything and we will gladly grab the points with Indiana tonight at Assembly Hall (or whatever it is called now). The Hoosiers have righted the ship before a bad outing last time out at Iowa, but they still have won 5 of their last 6 games. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to USC at home over the weekend. Expect this game to go down to the wire, but in the ned the Hoosiers will come out on top.
|
01-13-25 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets -3 |
Top |
118-120 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
Usually when teams face each other in consecutive games, you can always bank on the losing team to put in a better effort in the second meetings. But in a weird scheduling quirk, the losing team, in this case Memphis, played another game against Minnesota on Saturday after their Thursday matchup with Houston, so that shifted their focus and lessened the revenge angle. Houston has been off since that game on Thursday, so they have a big rest advantage, which is crucial at this point of the long NBA season. They also have won and covered in five of the last six meetings. We think the Rockets are slightly better than the Grizzlies on a neutral court, so a rested Houston team at home should take care of business tonight with a comfortable win.
|
01-12-25 |
Packers +4.5 v. Eagles |
|
10-22 |
Loss |
-108 |
101 h 34 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #381 Green Bay Packers over Philadelphia Eagles (4:30p.m., Sunday, January 11 FOX) The fans are really down on the Packers for losing basically a meaningless game last week to the Bears. Green Bay was not really trying to win that game in the second half and expect they will be ready to go Sunday against an NFC East team. Last year the Packers pounded Dallas in the Wild Card and I expect them to put forth a good showing in this game as well. QB Hurts has not played in weeks and I do expect him to be rusty in this game. Both teams are dealing with injuries and the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Packers won in Philadelphia, 21-16. This is just too many points for a game I expect to go down to the wire.
|
01-10-25 |
Thunder v. Knicks +5 |
|
126-101 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a quick revenge spot for the Knicks, who lost by 10 to the Thunder just one week ago today. New York was up most of the game then just fell apart in the fourth quarter on the road. We expect a much more complete effort here at home, and we are happy to get points here as we had this line handicapped at PK with a lean to New York at that number. These teams have alternated covers for the last five meetings, and we think that trend will continue here tonight.
|
01-09-25 |
Heat v. Jazz +5.5 |
|
97-92 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
These teams met Saturday in Miami and the Jazz scored a 36-point blowout. We think revenge is an overrated factor in NBA handicapping and both teams have played two games since, so we don’t think Miami will be focusing too much on payback. They have some off the court issues that are probably dominating their thoughts. The Jazz have been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in 8 of their last 10 games. And they play their best at home. We think this will be a close game, and a Jazz win would not be too surprising.
|
01-09-25 |
Notre Dame -1 v. Penn State |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 41 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #283 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30p.m., Thursday, January 9 ESPN) Just do not trust Penn State and their coach to win this type of game. They have had a cakewalk to reach the CFP Semifinals beating SMU in Happy Valley and Boise State in Glendale. The Irish took down a very physical team in Georgia last Thursday and they are the more battle tested team in this matchup. The Irish have a great offensive line that should be able to negate much of the pressure from Penn State. They also have a dual threat quarterback that is due for a strong game after struggling against Georgia last Thursday. Norte Dame is on a 33-11 ATS run (1 push) in their last 45 games. They have found the next big young coach in Marcus Freeman and I see them marching onto the Championship Game in Atlanta in 11 days. James Franklin gets tight in big games and that will show its face again on Thursday.
|
01-07-25 |
Hawks v. Jazz +6.5 |
|
124-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Injuries on both teams but Utah has been a covering machine lately and they have cashed bets in seven of their last nine. The Hawks have lost three straight to playoff type teams and they will probably have a letdown here. Atlanta has a poor ATS record and this team has been incredibly inconsistent. Utah has covered in six of the last eight and we think they are in a prime spot for a close game and possible outright win at home.
|
01-07-25 |
Tennessee v. Florida -3 |
|
43-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
3 Unit Play. Take #614 Florida over Tennessee (7p.m., Tuesday, January 7 ESPN2) It ends tonight! Tennessee will suffer their first loss of the season in Gainesville. Florida has the size to negate Tennessee in the paint and I do not believe the Volunteers will be able to shoot it well enough from the arc. Florida scores 89 points per game and they will go on a run at some point and pull away from the No. 1 team in the country.
|
01-06-25 |
Blazers v. Pistons -6.5 |
|
115-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
Detroit is at a great stage in their rebuild and things are starting to come together. But the oddsmakers are slow to react. We had them handicapped at -9 in this game. They are coming in off three straight wins. They have covered in five of their last eight. Right now they are in the play-in position for the playoffs so they can’t afford to take a team like Portland lightly. We expect them to take care of business with a comfortable win.
|
01-06-25 |
Wisconsin -1 v. Rutgers |
|
75-63 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
6 Unit Play. Take #883 Wisconsin over Rutgers (7p.m., Monday, January 6 FS1) The Badgers are scoring a ton of points this year and I am not sure Rutgers will be able to keep pace with the in this game. The Scarlet Knights have struggled with lesser teams this season and the Badgers are a streaky team that is playing outstanding basketball at the moment. Ace Bailey will get his points for Rutgers, but I see Wisconsin with the better all-around team.
|
01-05-25 |
Vikings v. Lions -2.5 |
|
9-31 |
Win
|
100 |
79 h 28 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #364 Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings (8:20p.m., Sunday, January 5 NBC) This is the final regular season game of the 2024 NFL season and the winner will be the No. 1 seed and the loser will be the No. 5 seed. Detroit has already beaten Minnesota this season at US Bank Stadium. I just trust Goff more than Donald and feel the Lions have been the best team in the NFC all season long. They will finish it off at home and be the team to beat in the playoffs.
|
01-05-25 |
Dolphins v. Jets |
|
20-32 |
Loss |
-112 |
76 h 35 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #341 Miami Dolphins over New York Jets (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 5 FOX) The Aaron Rodgers era in New York will drag out longer on Sunday afternoon instead of a 1 p.m. start. That is due to the fact that the Dolphins have a slim chance of making the playoffs and need to play opposite the Broncos. The Jets are terrible and cannot wait for this season to end. Tua is questionable for this game, or I would go higher, but this is a straight fade against the Jets.
|
01-05-25 |
Saints v. Bucs -13 |
|
19-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 10 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #336 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints (1p.m., Sunday, January 5 FOX) The Buccaneers have everything to play for in this game, as a win gets them the division and a playoff home game next week. New Orleans is banged up on both sides, terrible on both sides and should not put up much of a fight in this game.
|
01-04-25 |
Bengals -1 v. Steelers |
|
19-17 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 12 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #355 Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers (8p.m., Saturday, January 4 ESPN) More than likely Baltimore will win the early game and thus Pittsburgh cannot win the division. Cincinnati needs this game to have any chance to make the playoffs and expect them to get it. QB Burrow is playing outstanding and has great weapons. If he gets any help from his defense, the Bengals should be able to win this game by double-digits.
|
01-04-25 |
Texas v. Texas A&M -5.5 |
|
60-80 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #788 Texas A&M over Texas (8p.m., Saturday, January 4 SEC Network) Both teams have two losses on the season, but Texas does not have many quality wins. They have feasted on mid-majors, and I am just not sure Rodney Terry is up to the task of being a head coach for a major program. Texas A&M is the better defensive team and playing at home should allow their offense to get going. The Aggies want to win this game badly, since Texas is their big brother, and they were against them joining the SEC. Texas beat them in football this season and took their baseball coach. The Aggies get revenge today with a double-digit victory at home.
|
01-04-25 |
Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 |
|
105-119 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
Minnesota has been a disappointment so far in the 2024-25 season and even more for bettors as they have stayed overrated by the oddsmakers. This line feels like much of the same. The traded they made in the offseason haven’t worked yet and this team often feels disjointed. They enter having lost five of eight, and Detroit has a chance to win this one outright. The Pistons have covered in four straight meetings between these clubs, and they have won two straight and five of six, so they will be confident they can compete for the win here. We expect a close game.
|
01-03-25 |
Nevada v. New Mexico -5.5 |
|
81-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #894 New Mexico over Nevada (11p.m., Friday, January 3 FS!) These teams are heading in opposite directions with New Mexico undefeated in MWC play and Nevada is 0-3. The Wolf Pack do not have a No. 1 player and thus they will have trouble winning any road game this season.
|
01-03-25 |
Knicks +4.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
107-117 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Thunder have been amazing this season and an ATS machine, but they don’t win and cover every game, and this looks like a rare matchup that could see them struggle. They took care of business against a Harden-less Clippers squad on Thursday, and that was a physical game, so this is a tough back-to-back while the Knicks are rested. Despite the fact that New York has four more losses than do the Thunder, we think they are the more complete team and more of a championship threat this season. Brunson could return for the Knicks tonight from his minor injury that caused him to be a late scratch from the Jazz game. But the Knicks, now essentially healthy, have a deep roster even if he doesn’t play. The Knicks play has been as good as any team in the NBA lately, and they have the major rest advantage tonight.
|
01-02-25 |
Rutgers v. Indiana -5.5 |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
3 Unit Play. Take #772 Indiana over Rutgers (8:30p.m., Thursday, January 2 Peacock) The Hoosiers have not lived up to expectations yet again this season, but they still have talent and should be able to beat Rutgers at home by double digits. The Scarlet Knights have some bad losses on the season to Kennesaw State and Princeton and barely beat Seton Hall at home. Lay the points with the Hoosiers at home.
|
01-01-25 |
Ohio State -2.5 v. Oregon |
|
41-21 |
Win
|
100 |
195 h 39 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #271 Ohio State Buckeyes over Oregon Ducks (5p.m., Wednesday, January 1 ESPN) Everyone has stated this is a brutal draw for Oregon, having to play Ohio State again this season but this time at a neutral site. Coach Day is 3-0 ATS in his last 3 games against teams with a better winning percentage than his Buckeyes. Ohio State played outstanding in their last game against Tennessee, and I just feel that they are the much better defensive team in this matchup. Penn State proved you can score points against this Oregon defense, and I expect Ohio State to have a big day as well in the passing department. Ohio State will win this game in the trenches, and they are 9-2 lifetime against Oregon. Coach Day is 13-7 in his career when facing an undefeated team.
|
12-31-24 |
Penn State v. Boise State +11.5 |
|
31-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
173 h 17 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #268 Boise State Broncos over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30p.m., Tuesday, December 31 ESPN) FIESTA BOWL Just do not see a blowout in this game on a neutral field where Boise State has had great success in this bowl game. This is not a home game for Penn State and the game against SMU would have been much closer had the SMU QB not shit the bed. Penn State does not have an explosive offense and they will need help from Boise State in order to 30+ points. Boise State has the best player on the field and a great offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter. The Nittany Lions struggled to put away Illinois, UCLA, USC, and Minnesota this season and Boise State is on par or slightly better than those teams. All 4 favorites dominated the first round and expect the public to hammer them in this round as well. I just do not see all blowouts this week and Boise State is more than capable of hanging in this game especially on defense.
|
12-31-24 |
Marquette v. Providence +6.5 |
|
78-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
5 Unit Play. Take #648 Providence +6.5 over Marquette (6p.m., Tuesday, December 31 FS1) This is a lot of points for a true road game for the Golden Eagles to be laying. Marquette is just 2-2 in road games this season with their wins coming under tonight’s posted number. Providence pounded Marquette early in Big East play last season and they should be able to take this one down to the wire. The Friars play at a slow place, which should keep the scoring lower that what Marquette is accustomed to.
|
12-31-24 |
Baylor -1.5 v. LSU |
Top |
31-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
123 h 59 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #265 Baylor Bears over LSU Tigers (3:30p.m., Tuesday, December 31 ESPN) TEXAS BOWL. COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR The line movement in this game has been telling, as LSU opened as the favorite, but the sharps were having none of that. Brian Kelly is a good coach, but he was not hired to play in the Texas Bowl. He was hired to make the playoffs, and his teams have not come close to achieving that for 3 years. Despite having better talent in most of his bowl games, he is just 6-9 ATS, including an ATS loss last season to Wisconsin. Baylor has a former LSU assistant as their head coach in Dave Aranda, and he was on the hot seat this season before a remarkable run to close out the regular season, winning 6 straight games (6-0 ATS). Their best performance during this streak came in their last game, beating Kansas 45-17 and preventing them from becoming bowl eligible. Baylor has won 4 of their last 6 bowl games (4-2 ATS). Baylor has the momentum in this matchup, and they will win this game by double digits, putting Coach Kelly squarely on the hot seat for next season.
|
12-30-24 |
Clippers v. Pelicans +5 |
Top |
116-113 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have been one of the worst teams ATS, while the Clippers have been very profitable as a betting team on the season. But we think this is a bad spot for the Clippers and the Pelicans are at a good Buy Low point in certain spots. No one is betting on New Orleans now as they have used up all of bettor’s good will. Two of their best players are out, and they have had lots of injury problems, the same ones that have plagued this team for the last couple years. But this looks like a game the Clippers likely won’t give full effort for. They just played one of their main rivals, Golden State, and they have played recent games against Dallas, Memphis, Minnesota and Houston. They have the Spurs and the Thunder on deck. If there were a game they might overlook, this looks like it. The Pelicans seem to always play well against the Clippers, and they have won and covered in seven of the last eight meetings. We have been picking the Clippers a lot this season and we stated in this space at the start of the season that we thought LAC was a playoff team even if Kawhi didn’t return. But we don’t like them in this spot and especially as a big road favorite.
|
12-30-24 |
Siena v. Cornell -11.5 |
|
83-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #858 Cornell -11.5 over Siena (4p.m., Monday, January 30 ESPN+) Neither team has gotten off to a good start this season, but the Big Red have been playing better of late winning 4 of their last 4 games. They score 84 points per game and that should allow them to cover this double-digit number at home.
|
12-30-24 |
Iowa v. Missouri -3 |
|
24-27 |
Push |
0 |
144 h 6 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #258 Missouri Tigers over Iowa Hawkeyes (2:30p.m., Monday, December 30 ESPN) MUSIC CITY BOWL Iowa always seems to struggle in bowl games against SEC teams and I do not see them winning this game in Nashville. Missouri won 9 games this season but received little respect since they were blown out by Texas A&M and Alabama this season. The Tigers have a veteran quarterback, and I see him having a big game today in Music City. Missouri kept most of their roster in tact for this game and they should be able to score close to 30 points. That should be enough to win and cover this game.
|
12-29-24 |
Packers v. Vikings |
|
25-27 |
Win
|
100 |
122 h 5 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #426 Minnesota Vikings over Green Bay Packers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 29 FOX) I am still not sold on the Vikings, but they have a lot more to play for in this game compared to the Packers. Green Bay cannot win the division, earn a bye, or host a game during first two rounds and thus I feel they will try and get healthy over the next two weeks. If Minnesota wins out they will be the No. 1 seed and I expect them to do that and set up a winner take all game next week at Detroit. Minnesota just finds way to win, and they are getting the Packers on a short week with possible injuries to the wide receiving group.
|
12-29-24 |
IUPU Ft Wayne v. Green Bay +8.5 |
|
83-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #682 Green Bay over IPFW (2p.m., Sunday, December 29 ESPN+) The Phoenix are terrible and their coach is taking a ton of criticism, but I feel we are getting value with them here. They are playing at home and should be able to keep this game in single digits.
|
12-28-24 |
Knicks v. Wizards +13 |
|
136-132 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a tough spot for the Knicks, who are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. And you have to look at the games they played. The Christmas game against the Spurs was big, and then they faced a physical Orlando team on Friday. So this game against Washington doesn’t really move the needle for them. They can probably sleepwalk through this one and win by 7. Washington has become a bit underrated by the oddsmakers, and they have covered four of six. We think they can keep this one within double digits.
|
12-28-24 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA +4 |
Top |
62-65 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #630 UCLA Bruins over Gonzaga Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, December 28 FOX) UCLA owes us one after blowing a 16-point lead last week against North Carolina. This team is talented, they just need to clean up a few things (free throws) which they should be able to do in this game. Gonzaga is not as strong as they have been in recent years and playing UCLA always seems to go right down to the wire. In fact, 3 of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 4 points or fewer. UCLA allows just 58.4 points per game (7th best in the country) and that should be enough to get us a cover in this game.
|
12-28-24 |
Iowa State v. Miami-FL -3.5 |
|
42-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
97 h 5 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #248 Miami Hurricanes over Iowa State Cyclones (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 28 ABC) POP TARTS BOWL Miami should have Cam Ward for this game and expect him to make a statement that he should be a top 5 pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. Iowa State got blown out in their last games against Arizona State and that knocked them out of the College Football Playoff. Instead they get to play in the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando, FL. Miami has not won a bowl games since 2016 and they have won just one bowl game since 2006. You can bet Coach Cristobal wants to start a bowl winning streak, and they should win this game by double-digits.
|
12-27-24 |
Warriors v. Clippers -4.5 |
|
92-102 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
The Warriors will likely be missing their two best players tonight, and they are in a bad spot after their epic Christmas game. The Clippers always play their best against the Warriors and they have won five straight meetings. They are well rested as their last game was on Monday. They also have some positive momentum due to the fact that reinforcements are on the way as Kawhi Leonard is practicing right now and will return to the lineup soon, so this team is suddenly a legit contender in the Western Conference.
|
12-25-24 |
Ravens -5.5 v. Texans |
|
31-2 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #403 Baltimore Ravens over Houston Texans (4:30p.m., Wednesday, December 25 Netflix) The Texans have clinched the AFC South and will be the fourth seed come the 2025 playoffs next month. They do not have much to play for these next two weeks and suffered a bad injury to Tank Dell last Saturday. Baltimore still has a chance to win the division, and they likely will if they can win out. Baltimore has won 4 straight games against Houston (4-0 ATS) and they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Look for Lamar and company to come out strong in this game, especially if the results of the early game go their way.
|
12-23-24 |
Celtics v. Magic +10.5 |
Top |
104-108 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
These teams played last week in Boston, so this is a quick revenge spot for the Magic. Orlando is missing some players, but the guys that are on the court tonight will be able to keep this game close. The Magic can be excused for their blowout loss in Boston, as they are 7-10 on the road this season, but they will give their blood, sweat and tears here at home as they are 11-2 at the Kia Center this season. Boston has their big Christmas matchup against Philly on tap, while the Magic don’t play until Thursday, so they can leave it all on the court here. The Magic have covered the last three meetings at home, and we think this could be a flat spot for the defending champs.
|
12-23-24 |
College of Charleston v. Loyola-Chicago -2 |
|
77-68 |
Loss |
-122 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #868 Loyola Chicago over Charleston (5:30p.m., Monday, December 23 ESPNU) Both teams are off to strong starts this season and we expect the Ramblers to take care of business in Honolulu after a tough 1-point loss yesterday on the islands. Charleston lost by 9 points to a bad Oregon State team yesterday.
|
12-23-24 |
Northern Illinois -3 v. Fresno State |
|
28-20 |
Win
|
100 |
141 h 25 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #221 Northern Illinois Huskies over Fresno State Bulldogs (2:30p.m., Monday, December 23 ESPN) IDADO POTATO BOWL Just feel that the Huskies will be the more motivated team in this matchup. They want to join the MWC and Fresno State is leaving the MWC and will have a new coach come next season. Northern Illinois put up great stats this season and they should have been better than their 7-5 record according to those numbers. Both quarterbacks will be out for this game, but we will follow the line movement and take the Huskies.
|
12-22-24 |
Vikings v. Seahawks +3 |
Top |
27-24 |
Push |
0 |
54 h 41 m |
Show
|
5 Unit Play. Take #122 Seattle Seahawks +3 over Minnesota Vikings (4:05p.m., Sunday, December 22 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK Minnesota is coming off a short week and Seattle will be desperate to not drop two straight home games to NFC North teams. The Vikings have lost 5 straight Week 15 games (0-5 ATS as well). Seattle has beaten Minnesota 7 of the last 8 meetings. They are the more desperate team and all signs point to QB Smith playing in this game.
|
12-21-24 |
Tennessee +7.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
17-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
99 h 4 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #217 Tennessee Volunteers over Ohio State Buckeyes (8p.m., Saturday, December 21 ABC) Just feel the mode at Ohio State has not recovered from their embarrassing home loss last time out to Michigan. I am still not certain Ryan Day will return next season and I expect the Vols to make the Buckeyes one dimensional in this game. The Volunteers are not known for a strong defense under Coach Heupel, but that is what they have become this season. This total is the lowest of the four first round games and laying over a touchdown would be a tough ask if the total points is only expected to be in the mid-forties. Take the points with the hungier team that wants to make a statement that they are back.
|
12-21-24 |
UCLA -1 v. North Carolina |
|
74-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
7 Unit Play. Take #661 UCLA -1 over North Carolina (3p.m., Saturday, December 21 CBS) No bet against North Carolina is a bad bet at this point. This seem to be out played in every game against ranked teams and they will have their hands full with UCLA on Saturday. UCLA is 10-1 on the season and they have not lost a game since 11/8. The have great size and should by able to out physical the Tar Heels on both sides of the court. Playing all these tough games has taken its toll on UNC and I just do not see them getting out of this funk on Saturday at a neutral court in New York, NY.
|
12-18-24 |
Evansville v. Texas-Arlington -7.5 |
|
54-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #680 UT Arlington over Evansville (8p.m., Wednesday, December 18 ESPN+) No bet against Evansville is ever a bad bet. They have not won a true road game this season and are currently 0-4 on the season. The Purple Aces score just 69 points on the season, and they will lose this game by double digits on Wednesday.
|
12-17-24 |
St Bonaventure v. Siena +7 |
|
65-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #626 Siena over St Bonaventure (7p.m., Tuesday, December 17 ESPN+) This is a fade on St Bona, as they are coming off a big win over the weekend and I feel a letdown in this true road game. The Bonnies beat the Friars, but that came without their best player from Providence. I see this game going right down to the wire, as Sienna is undefeated at home this season.
|
12-15-24 |
Arkansas State v. UAB -3.5 |
|
98-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #736 UAB -3.5 over Arkansas State (6p.m., Sunday, December 15 ESPN+) UAB has underachieved this season, but they still have talent and should be a player in the Sun Belt Conference come March. They have won winnable games coming up and it should be able to take care of business at home on Sunday. Yaxel Lendeborg does it all and he should come up big again on Sunday.
|
12-15-24 |
Patriots v. Cardinals -4.5 |
|
17-30 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 1 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #478 Arizona Cardinals over New England Patriots (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 15 CBS) It is no or never for QB Murray. He laid an egg last week against Seattle and now gets an easier home game against New England. The Patriots are coming off a bye and will enter having lost 3 straight games. I do not see them getting much from their offense in this game and if Kyler can take care of the football, the Red Birds should win this game by double digits.
|
12-14-24 |
Hawks +4 v. Bucks |
|
102-110 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have been playing better after a slow start but one of their recent losses was in Atlanta, and that one was a blowout. That win against Milwaukee was one of seven wins in the Hawks last eight games, and they are playing as well as any team in the league right now. They haven’t had an easy schedule, either. The Hawks came into the season with low expectations and the Bucks with Championship-or-bust aspirations, so we think the NBA Cup means more to the Hawks here, while Milwaukee probably has their focus more on getting team chemistry right before the postseason.
|
12-14-24 |
Arizona State +7.5 v. Florida |
Top |
66-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
10 Unit Play. Take #639 Arizona State Sun Devils over Florida Gators (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 13 SEC Network) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. Arizona State has been the surprise of the country in football and their basketball team has been turning heads as well. They are 8-1 on the season with their only loss at Gonzaga, one of the toughest teams in the country. They have decent wins over Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and their best win is against Saint Mary’s. Coach Hurley always appears to be on the hot seat, but appears destined to make the NCAA Tournament come March. Florida is undefeated at 9-0 and they are ranked No. 9 in the country. This damage has been done against a cupcake schedule and I cannot find one team on their schedule that will likely make the NCAA Tournament at this point of the season. The Gators have not left the state of Florida this season, as this game in Atlanta will be their first trip out of state. I am not that impressed with the Gators stats on offense and most of their points are coming via volume not great shooting. Arizona State is a much better 3-point shooting team, and they hold their own with the Gators in field goal and free throw percentage. I just do not believe Florida will be able to run away with this game unless they really shoot it well from the arc, something they have not done much of this season. This is a neutral site game, and I do not see either team making a living on the free throw line and expect this to be a griding game, something Florida has not experienced this season.
|
12-13-24 |
Pacers v. 76ers -6.5 |
Top |
121-107 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Sixers are getting healthy and starting to gel as a team and we think this team is trending upwards. They have won four of five and covered five straight. This was one of the worst ATS teams of the league but they look to be turning it around, and tonight they face a team they have basically owned. The Pacers have been horrible ATS and are one of the coldest teams in the league for covering lines. They have covered just 8 out of 25 games this season, and it looks to us like they are overvalued once again.
|
12-13-24 |
Senators v. Hurricanes -1.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
Carolina has won four straight in this series, all by multiple goals. They have a goal differential of +14 in those four matches. Five of their last six wins over the Senators have come by multiple goals, so when they win they normally win big. Ottawa has a very poor ATS record as they tend to win close games and lose by more than a goal as an underdog.
|
12-12-24 |
Rams v. 49ers -2.5 |
|
12-6 |
Loss |
-108 |
52 h 50 m |
Show
|
4 Unit Play. Take #452 San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Rams (8:15p.m., Thursday, December 12 Prime) Just do not trust the Rams defense and feel that the only way they can win games is in a shootout. San Francisco is coming off their best game of the season and they still have a chance in the NFL West if they can win this game. The Rams have beaten the 49ers the last two games, but SF has won 7 of the last 190 matchups. All 3 of the Rams wins were by 3 points of less and I do not see them being able to stay in this game for 60 minutes. The home team has a great edge in Thursday Night Football games and look for Brock Prudy to put up big numbers in this game.
|
12-12-24 |
Texas-Arlington +9.5 v. Arkansas State |
|
79-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
2 Unit Play. Take #673 UT Arlington over Arkansas State (8p.m., Thursday, December 12 ESPN+) We will grab the points in this exam week game between the Mavericks and the Red Wolves. Arlington scored 3 points more per game than does Arkansas State and getting close to double digits in what will likely be a low scoring game is too good to pass up.
|
12-12-24 |
Raptors v. Heat -10 |
Top |
104-114 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
Toronto has been one of the best ATS teams this season but this is a bad spot for them. The Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season and they have won and covered three straight, all against playoff-type teams. Toronto enters on a three-game losing streak. Most importantly, they are missing Barnes tonight and this is their best player. He posted a double-double and shot over 50 percent from the field in Toronto’s home upset of the Heat earlier this month. We often say revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in pro sports, but we think it does come into play when the teams have met recently.
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12-10-24 |
Eastern Washington v. Washington -13 |
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69-87 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
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2 Unit Play. Take #636 Washington over Eastern Washington (11p.m., Tuesday, December 10 BTN) The Huskies are hosting a buy game against an in-state team and I expect them to win this by close to 20 points. Washington has great size and need a bounce back after getting blown out two straight Big 10 games. EWU should be the perfect for a get well game, as they are 0-6 on the road and have won just one game since November 7.
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12-10-24 |
Mavs +4.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
104-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
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The Mavs have won three straight at OKC, including in their playoff series last year that they won in six games. Dallas was the No. 5 seed and they weren’t intimidated and they won’t be tonight. In what should be a playoff type atmosphere, Dallas has shown that they can get the job done here and they have all the experience in crunch time here. Dallas has now won five of the last six meetings overall. The Thunder’s only win in that span was by a mere 4 points in Dallas. Both teams have been playing well recently but Dallas has been a bit better as they enter on a seven-game winning streak where they covered all but one line, and that was last time vs. Toronto where they barely missed the cover. The Thunder have lost only two games at home this season, but one of those was to the Mavs a few weeks ago. Dallas matches up very well with OKC and they have the star players to excel in this high pressure atmosphere. They also seem hungry after losing the Finals last year and an NBA Cup would be a nice consolation prize, so we have no doubt they will come to play tonight. We expect a close game win or lose, and this one could very well come down to who has the ball last.
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12-08-24 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals -2.5 |
Top |
30-18 |
Loss |
-115 |
45 h 56 m |
Show
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7 Unit Play. Take #136 Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks (4:05p.m., Sunday, Sunday, 8 CBS) The Cardinals need this game if they have visions of making the playoffs. Nobody in the NFC West has been able to separate all season long and thus I do not see Seattle winning this game and pulling away from the field. Seattle still cannot run the football, and they will struggle to do that against this strong Arizona rush defense. QB Smith had an emotional game last week against New York (former team) and playing their second straight road game will doom them in for this game.
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12-08-24 |
Jets v. Dolphins -6 |
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26-32 |
Push |
0 |
117 h 12 m |
Show
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4 Unit Play. Take #134 Maimi Dolphins over New York Jets (1p.m., Sunday, December 8 CBS) The Jets are just playing out the string for the rest of the season and QB Rodgers is likely down in New York should he want to play next season. Miami has held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 20 points and if they do that today they should win this game big. Miami has won 5 of their last 6 home games against New York. The Jets will have some moments in this game, they will just find a way to lose, something they have done most of this season.
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12-08-24 |
Richmond v. Auburn -29 |
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54-98 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
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2 Unit Play. Take #751 Richmond over Auburn (12p.m., Sunday, December 8 SECN) This is an 11 a.m. local tipoff and I just feel Richmond can stay within this gigantic number. The Spiders are well coached and run a slower style of offense and should benefit us to cover this number.
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12-07-24 |
Penn State v. Oregon -3.5 |
Top |
37-45 |
Win
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100 |
100 h 23 m |
Show
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10 Unit Play. Take #120 Oregon Ducks over Penn State Nittany Lions (8p.m., Saturday, December CBS) BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Penn State must be shocked that they made it to Indianapolis, but I see them losing this game by double-digits. Both teams are likely in the playoffs and are playing for a top seed and bye. Coach Franklin has struggled in games against top teams and Oregon is the No. 1 team in the country. Oregon has scored 30 points in 23 of their last 24 games and I just do not believe Penn State can keep up with them. Oregon got over a big hurdle last week beating Washington and I see them winning the Big Ten in their first season.
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12-07-24 |
Grizzlies +6.5 v. Celtics |
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127-121 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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The Grizzlies are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and have won seven of their last eight games. We think they are in a good spot here for Saturday against the Celtics, who come in on a back-to-back after a tough game vs. Milwaukee, and this is their third game in four days, while the Grizzlies are rested. The Celtics have covered only two of their last 10 games, and it’s obvious their lines are being shaded at this time.
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12-07-24 |
Tennessee-Martin v. Montana State -16 |
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17-49 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
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7 Unit Play. Take #308928 Montana State -17 over UT Martin (3p.m., Saturday, December 7 ESPN+) UT-Martin is coming off of perhaps the most dominating performance, defeating New Hampshire 41-10 last week in the opening round. Their reward, however, isn't much of a prize as they now must travel to Bozeman, Montana, to take on the number one seed, Montana State. The Skyhawks from UT-Martin have been impressive offensively, scoring 32.5 ppg (23rd in the country) and almost the same on the road, with 32.3 ppg. Their defense, however, is a different story, surrendering 22.3 ppg overall and 23 ppg as visitors. Perhaps an even more glaring statistic is their 2-4 SU record against teams above a .500 winning percentage, a stat Montana State (12-0) must be salivating at. The Bobcats have the highest-scoring offense in FCS, putting up 40.7 ppg and tied with Dayton for 6th at 17.0 ppg. Bobcat Stadium has been even more difficult for opposing teams to score in, as MSU's home points allowed per game is a stingy 13.2 ppg. UT-Martin has had difficulty all season against elite defenses, putting up a mere 9 points against Tennessee Tech and 6 against Kansas State. The Bobcats are somewhere in the middle of those respective teams. Another key factor to consider is travel and altitude. The Skyhawks have certainly earned their wings, traveling 1,266 miles last week to Durham, New Hampshire, and an even further 1,600 miles to Bozeman, Montana this week. Bobcat Stadium isn't quite a mile high, at an elevation of 4,940 feet, but the altitude is significant enough that visiting teams often struggle in the second half against MSU. We expect the weary travelers from UT-Martin to hang around in the first 30 minutes and melt under the blistering pressure of Montana State in the second half. Take MONTANA STATE GOOD LUCK!
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12-07-24 |
Wisconsin +7 v. Marquette |
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74-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
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6 Unit Play. Take #621 Wisconsin over Marquette (1:30p.m., Saturday, December 6 FOX) This is just too many points to be giving for this in-state battle that has been dominated by the Badgers in recent years. Both teams are coming off losses during the week and I expect this game to go right down to the wire. Chase Ross went out in that game with an ankle injury for the Golden Eagles and did not return. Wisconsin struggled with size from Michigan, but Marquette does not have that to threaten them in this game. The Badgers have beaten the Golden Eagles three times in the last three years.
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12-07-24 |
Ohio +2.5 v. Miami-OH |
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38-3 |
Win
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100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
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5 Unit Play. Take #111 Ohio Bobcats +2 over Miami Ohio Redhawks (12p.m., Saturday, December 5 ESPN) The stats favor Ohio in this game and getting them as an underdog is too good to pass up. The underdog is 16-6 ATS (3 pushes) in the last 25 MAC Championship Games. These two teams met earlier this season and I just do not believe the Redhawks are good enough to beat the Bobcats twice in one season. The MAC is always full of upsets and revenge will be served on the field.
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12-06-24 |
UNLV v. Boise State -4 |
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7-21 |
Win
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100 |
76 h 6 m |
Show
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4 Unit Play. Take #108 Boise State Broncos over UNLV Rebels (8p.m., Friday, December 6 FOX) MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME UNLV may be the better all-around team, but Boise State is playing at home with the best player on the field. The winner of this game will likely reach the playoffs, and I just cannot envision UNLV being that team. Boise State is a brand name, and the conference and playoff committee want them to win this game. UNLV lost to Boise State, 44-20 at home last year in the Mountain West Championship and that is how is see this game going as well.
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12-05-24 |
Hornets v. Knicks -14 |
Top |
101-125 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
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These teams played on Friday in Charlotte and the Hornets gave the Knicks quite a scare, with New York winning only by a single point. That prevents any surprises here, in our opinion, and gives the Knicks the opportunity to play a well-rounded game and not overlook this banged-up Hornets team. Charlotte is without Ball and Miles Bridges tonight and this team that will take the court isn’t much more talented than a G-League squad. The Knicks, in our opinion, are one of the four best teams in the league. They are getting healthy, too, and might get Achiuwa back tonight. Before that close game on Friday the Knicks had won the previous four meetings by 14 or more points, covering in all four.
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