Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 189 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month. |
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09-05-15 | Penn State v. Temple +7 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 184 h 14 m | Show |
I am playing on TEMPLE. Last year’s 30-13 game was much closer than the score indicated and I think this year Temple gives Penn State a scare and keeps this game very close. The Owls return most of their starters from a team last year that made huge strides and kept things to a score of 6-3 at the half at Beaver Stadium. The Owls finished the season with a .500 record and they made for a respectable bet down the final stretch of the season at 3-2 against the spread. Temple needs to find a way to stall Penn State’s rushing game, which racked up over 250 yards in last year’s meeting and I think we’ll see that happen with all 11 starters returning from what was a top 20 defense last season. The Owls also return seven players on the offensive line with starting experience, so I expect to see a much better passing game from quarterback P.J. Walker this season. I think Penn State will be a little surprised in this matchup and I like the home side getting the points here. 10* Afternoon Best Bet |
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09-04-15 | Colorado -7 v. Hawaii | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO. This marks my first 10-star play of the college football season and I think the Buffaloes get the job done against an inferior Hawaii team. The Buffaloes have had a bit of a rough go since moving to the Pac-12 in 2011 but I think they will jump out to great start to the season, thanks mostly to the offense. Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau returns (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions in 2014) along with his favorite receiver Nelson Spruce, who finished tops in the Pac-12 in receptions last year. I also feel the run game should be stronger this year after a bit of a disappointing season last year. Jim Leavitt is the new D coordinator and that should help a defense that pretty much can't get worse than 2014. It will help starting against a Mountain West opponent that many are predicting to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this season. Hawaii also failed to cover the spread in its final 10 games last year (0-8-1 ATS) and I don't even think home field can help the Warriors here. 10* Friday Feast |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 105 | 153 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Colts are on a great run and I think oddsmakers have laid out a tempting line for underdog players, but I think the Patriots cover this one on home field against one of their favorite opponents. (*This line could potentially dip below -7. So it may be wise to wait to play. If waiting, keep a close eye on the movements and act accordingly.) |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
I am playing on DENVER. Sometimes you wonder whether a playoff bye is good for a team or not but in this case there should be no wondering for the Broncos – it was definitely a good thing. |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 88 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 49-34 | Loss | -100 | 462 h 23 m | Show |
I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -100 | 455 h 16 m | Show |
I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +8 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 435 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season. Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles. That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense. The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation. Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws. I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet |
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12-28-14 | St. Louis Rams +13 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -123 | 147 h 36 m | Show |
I’m playing on the St. Louis Rams as a 10* Sunday. The Rams aren’t going to the tournament but have plenty of motivation versus the defending Super Bowl champs in the season finale. |
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12-28-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 143 h 2 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Kansas City Chiefs as a 10* Sunday. Kansas City hosts the San Diego Chargers in the season finale. The Bolts have a clear shot at the postseason while the Chiefs need a win over San Diego and a lot of help from other teams in the playoff mix. There’s no shortage of motivation here for the home side. |
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12-28-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +7.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -140 | 143 h 57 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Tennessee Titans as a 10* Sunday. The Titans are playing for pride in the regular season finale, getting a handful of points from the Indianapolis Colts Sunday. The Colts are coming off a rough loss to Dallas last weekend and can’t improve their playoff standing with a win in Week 17, having already clinched home field for a Wild Card Weekend matchup next weekend. While head coach Chuck Pagano told the media he plans to play his starters, that playing time could diminish with a postseason matchup lurking the next week. Indianapolis has won four of its last five games heading into Week 17 but has been anything but dominant in those victories, with a 2-2-1 ATS mark in that span. The Colts have been terribly careless with the football, turning the ball over 15 times in that five-game span including three giveaways in the loss to the Cowboys. Tennessee has a respectable pass rush with 38 sacks on the season and was able to get to the quarterback four times in last Thursday’s loss to Jacksonville. The Titans can go for broke in the season finale and try to get Andrew Luck moving around in the pocket, hopefully making some mistakes. Indianapolis is going with second-year center Khaled Holmes again, so there's a glaring weakness in this Colts' protection. The Colts have also been beaten up on the ground in recent games. They allowed Dallas to plow the road for 127 yards rushing and have given up an average of 126.3 rushing yards in the last three outings. Tennessee will attempt to control the football and pace of the game after possessing the pigskin for just 17:39 in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals. The Titans actually dominated time of possession versus Jacksonville, at 34:52, so they know how to hog the ball and milk the clock. With the Colts focused on the postseason and not playing solid football recently, I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Sunday. |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 368 h 60 m | Show |
I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points. Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team. The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year. USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense. USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country. I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event |
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12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -115 | 231 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +2 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 358 h 45 m | Show |
I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack. Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels. The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards. For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title. NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl. 10* Best Bet |
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12-22-14 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals +4 | Top | 28-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Main Event Monday. The final Monday Night Football of the season is shaping up to be an instant classic. The Bengals welcome the Denver Broncos to Paul Brown Stadium, fighting for their playoff lives on the NFL’s primetime stage. |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Miami Dolphins -6.5 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Miami Dolphins as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are thinning but this game versus the Minnesota Vikings is still a huge must-win situation. Miami is at home to a team coming off a crushing defeat last Sunday. |
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12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -118 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on an ATLANTA team that I feel is playing its best football of the season. The Falcons are also a strong bet at home, while Pittsburgh’s scoring numbers show the Steelers typically play a step below their capabilities on the road more often than not this season. The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread at home and a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog, the spot they are in against the Steelers this week. Home dogs in general have been a solid spot for bettors most of the season at 34-30-2 against the spread and an incredible 16-10 ATS over the last month (61.5 percent). Atlanta has looked like a new team the last two weeks with a win over the Arizona Cardinals (tied for top record in the league) and a respectable 6-point loss in Green Bay against the current Super Bowl favorites on Monday night. The Steelers are 2-3 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games and they’re scoring average drops by close to a touchdown from 27.8 to 21.7 points when they hit the road this season. I believe that may not be enough to keep up with an Atlanta passing attack that’s been on fire its last two games. Matt Ryan has passed for a combined 736 yards and six TDs against two interceptions over his last two games while Julio Jones has been the best receiver in the NFL for two straight weeks. A Pittsburgh defense, meanwhile, has struggled to make plays this season with just 24 sacks (24th in the NFL) and eight interceptions (also 24th in the NFL). I feel Ryan will stay in his groove this weekend against this defense and the Falcons will hold their place atop the fledgling NFC South as a team that continues on the rise. 10* Best Bet |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +13 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 173 h 26 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Super Play Monday. The Falcons are finding their form just in time for a postseason push, and ride that momentum to Lambeau Field for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers. |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers +3.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 55 m | Show |
I’m playing on the San Diego Chargers as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Bolts host the New England Patriots Sunday night, hoping to catch Tom Brady & Co. in a tough spot. New England, off a loss to Green Bay, travels across the country for this primetime game. |
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12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -120 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a huge divisional win on Thanksgiving and host the defending Super Bowl champs, crossing the country for a showdown between a high-powered offense and a hard-nosed defense in Week 14.
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12-07-14 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 135 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday. Jacksonville is in a rare spot, bringing momentum into Sunday’s action after defeating the Giants last week. The Jaguars try to keep it rolling against the Houston Texans, who have split wins and losses in their last six games. |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. |
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12-06-14 | Temple v. Tulane +4 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 32 m | Show |
I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. |
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12-06-14 | Iowa State +33 v. TCU | Top | 3-55 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 10 m | Show |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 32-30 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 45 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Jets are back home in the Meadowlands after a bad loss to Buffalo last Monday, hosting a Miami Dolphins team playing its third road game in the past four weeks for another Monday Night primetime matchup. |
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11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 122 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Green Bay Packers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. We get a possible Super Bowl preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field in Week 13. The Cheeseheads are dominant at home and will look to flex their muscle for the Green Bay faithful Sunday. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 102 | 120 h 3 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Falcons are home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 trying to stay atop the NFC South. Arizona finds itself outgunned on the road against a desperate team. The Falcons won back-to-back games before being upended by the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Atlanta is first in the division despite a lousy record but has the offensive explosiveness to compete each week. The Falcons have a dominant passing game, ranked seventh in the NFL with 269.5 yards through the air per outing. Atlanta will be tested against a blitz-happy Arizona defense, which thrives on pressuring the passer. However, the Falcons offensive line does a good job keeping quarterback Matt Ryan clean. Atlanta has allowed just 23 totals sacks all season and Ryan has only thrown nine interceptions. If the Falcons can weather the storm on offense, they will be able to outgun a Cardinals attack that has mustered only 17 points in the past two weeks. With backup QB Drew Stanton under center and some missing pieces in the passing game, Arizona has totaled just 455 yards passing with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the last two contests. The Falcons defense is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of yards allowed but this stop unit has also made big plays, with 12 interceptions on the year. Atlanta had three picks against the Browns last Sunday and two against the Panthers the week before. A Falcons offense with plenty of pop and a defense that can take advantage of the Cardinals' QB troubles is why I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Best Bet. |
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11-29-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 101 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. |
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11-29-14 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE |
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11-28-14 | Stanford +5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. |
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11-27-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 83 h 24 m | Show |
I’m playing on the San Francisco 49ers as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday. The Niners are hitting their stride at the right time and welcome the rival Seattle Seahawks to Levis Stadium for what is the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and its new digs on Thanksgiving Day. |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -130 | 172 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Monday Main Event. The Saints have dropped back-to-back games inside the Superdome – an almost unheard of feat in recent seasons. New Orleans is out to stay in the division hunt in the log-jammed NFC South and host a Ravens team struggling away from Baltimore. This Monday Night Football showdown is setting up nicely for the Saints, who play their best football at home on the primetime stage. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday nighters and has outscored opponents 160-70 in its last four home Monday night games – an average difference of 22.5 points per game. Baltimore has lost two straight road games – at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati – and is 1-3 SU away from home in its last four outside of Maryland. The Ravens defense is allowing 379.4 yards per road game – compared to just 292 yards against at home – with those gains translating into 25.6 points against – compared to only 10.6 at home. On offense, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has faded in the second half of the schedule. He’s completed under 60 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception count of 5-5 in the last four games. Flacco has been flustered by blitz packages and will see plenty of bodies coming after him with Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan unleashing his dogs Monday night. A desperate Saints squad that shines on the MNF stage and a rough road record for the Ravens is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Monday Main Event. |
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11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 57 h 7 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday. It’s been a rough week for the Buffalo Bills, who lose their home-field edge thanks to a massive snow storm that pushed this AFC East showdown from Sunday to Monday in Detroit. The weather issues in Western New York took the focus off football for the Bills, who were left up in the air about practice and game schedule until the middle of the week. Instead of having a decisive home-field advantage with the winter weather in Week 12, Buffalo is on a neutral field when it faces the Jets, who have had two weeks to prepare for this game after enjoying a bye in Week 11. New York’s ground game will love the fast track inside Ford Field, giving solid footing to a rushing game that ranks fourth in the NFL – averaging 140.8 yards per game. New York rumbled for 150 yards in their stunning win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, handing the ball off 36 times. The Bills gave up 125 yards on 24 carries in their loss to Miami – an average of 5.2 yards per run. Buffalo was able to put up big passing numbers against the Jets defense in Week 8, with Kyle Orton connecting for four touchdowns. New York is eager to get a second shot at Orton, who has regressed in recent outings. He’s completed just over 58 percent of his passes and has only one touchdown in his last two games – both of them losses. Buffalo’s bad week and the Jets rushing game enjoying a clean neutral site is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday. |
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11-23-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants +3 | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 119 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. New York is coming off a miserable showing against San Francisco, but despite Eli Manning’s five interceptions the G-Men actually had a chance to win the game in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants stay home for this Sunday Night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, and would love to throw a wrench in Big D’s playoff plans. New York gave Dallas a good fight in their first meeting, never letting the Cowboys feel comfortable in that Week 7 clash in Arlington. The Giants have a decisive home edge versus Dallas Sunday night, with rain in the forecast making for some slick field conditions and temperatures dipping into the low 40s. The Cowboys have shown in the past that they’re not used to playing in the elements. The Giants also catch the Cowboys looking ahead to next Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. That matinee meeting will go a long way in deciding the division. Dallas has a short week to prepare for that matchup, so focus could be split between Sunday night and what lies ahead on Turkey Day. New York’s defense did a good job limiting San Francisco’s passing game in Week 11. Colin Kaepernick completed just 15 of 29 passes for 193 yards, and the Niners converted on third down just six of 14 times. The Giants are in the top half of the league in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 39.53 percent of third down tries. That should stump the Dallas offense, which is among the best in the NFL at keep the chains moving, boasting a third down conversion percentage of 50.77. A tough road spot for the Cowboys and a Giants defense looking to build off a underrated performance is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 98 h 51 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs don’t have time to lick their wounds after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. That’s a good thing for Seattle backers, as this team is chomping at the bit to get back on the field and prove they’re still top dog in the NFC against the conference-leading Arizona Cardinals. |
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11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. |
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11-22-14 | Oklahoma State +27 v. Baylor | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 122 h 8 m | Show |
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now. While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some. What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop. “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week. Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story. Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker |
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11-22-14 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. |
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11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show |
10* Analysis to come before 7AM on game day |
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11-20-14 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Duke | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown. Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played. Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined. They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division. 10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses. Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss. WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent. One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense. I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -120 | 128 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Indianapolis Colts as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event. Indianapolis can get some revenge on the New England Patriots at home in this marquee matchup Sunday night and also stake its claim as the team to beat in the AFC. The Colts bowed out of the playoff last season, losing 43-22 to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round this past January. Indianapolis hasn’t forgotten that loss and will be looking at Sunday as a true test of where it stands in the conference picture. Andrew Luck hasn’t had much success against the Patriots in the past, especially when it comes to limiting his turnovers. However, both head-to-head meetings came in New England. This time around, Luck is peaking and playing inside the comfortable domed confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. Both of these offense are going to try and chew up as much time off the clock in order to freeze out the other. And while both have the potential to dominate time of possession, the Colts have a much better running game than the Patriots do at this point. Ahmad Bradshaw is a threat to run or catch for gains and Trent Richardson can punishing opposing tacklers with his smash-mouth style of running. A revenge-fueled Colts side dominating the football with plenty of weapons is why I’m playing on Indianapolis as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event. |
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11-16-14 | Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams +10 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 55 m | Show |
I’m playing the St. Louis Rams as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Rams have shown a tendency to play up to their competition, hanging with the NFL’s elite in those tough games. St. Louis faces just that in Week 11, playing a Denver Broncos club taking to the road for the third straight week. The Rams had the Arizona Cardinals on their heels last week, jumping out to a 14-10 lead before succumbing to the Cardinals defense and losing a lopsided game. However, that fight is nothing new for St. Louis, which has taken wins over NFC powers San Francisco and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in recent weeks. The Broncos come to St. Louis weary from the road. This will be their third straight away game, after losing at New England on Sunday night three weeks ago and rolling Oakland in the Bay Area last Sunday. Denver hasn’t been that sharp away from Mile High, suffering their two losses on the road. The Broncos are putting up 28.2 points per road game – nearly a touchdown less than at home – and QB Peyton Manning is completing 64.5 percent of his passes in enemy territory, compared to 71.2 percent inside Sports Authority Field. Five of his seven total interceptions have come on the road as well. He’ll go up against a Rams pass rush that has unleashed hell in the last four games after a very slow start to the year. St. Louis has 16 sacks in that span, including an eight-sack effort in the win over the 49ers three weeks ago. Pro Bowl DE Robert Quinn was held without a sack through the first five games but has erupted for six sacks in the last four contests. A hard-nosed Rams team ramping up the pass rush versus a road-weary Broncos side is why I’m playing on St. Louis as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday. |
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11-16-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. NY Giants +4.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Giants are back home hosting a San Francisco 49ers team bound for a letdown after pulling off a come-from-behind overtime victory in New Orleans last week. On top of that, the Niners have to cross the country for this early 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. The 49ers needed some magic and help from the officials in their much-needed win over the Saints. San Francisco’s offense sputtered again late in the game, managing only three points in the second half versus New Orleans. On the year, the Niners are averaging only 6.2 points in the final two quarters – last in the NFL – including just 2.9 points per fourth quarter. This will be San Francisco’s second straight road game, a situation that cost them a head-turning loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 7. The Niners not only deal with that schedule spot but also an early start time on the East Coast. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff is at 10 a.m. back in the Bay Area against a Giants team that has won five of the last six encounters with San Francisco, including the last two meetings in East Rutherford. New York has its back against a wall after a loss in Seattle last week. The Giants have dropped four straight games but three of those have come away from MetLife Stadium. The G-Men are happy to be home, where they average more than five points more per game and QB Eli Manning has passed for 793 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three home stands. A sputtering Niners offense making a cross-country trip to face a home-happy Giants squad is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night Football and desperately needs a win. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have struggled in recent trips to Soldier Field. The Bears have been backed into a corner after Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of the rival Packers. They’ve lost three straight and five of their last six going back to Week 4. This Chicago team was supposed to compete for the NFC title and its running out of time to make a run at the wild card. The Bears’ biggest problem has been their slow starts, digging an early hole that they’re unable to claw out of. After Sunday’s loss, in which Chicago allowed 42 first-half points to the Packers, the Bears have been outscored 94-7 through the first two quarters during their current three-game slide. Luckily, for Chicago, the Vikings have been ice cold in the opening quarters, averaging just 8.1 points per first half this season. Minnesota has been slow out of the blocks even in their last two games – both wins – scoring a combined 10 points in the first halves of those outings. Overall, the Vikings offense ranks 26th in the NFL - 18.7 points per game. Minnesota has lost five in a row in the Windy City, going back to 2009, and has managed to cover in only one of those trips. Mother Nature could be playing into those woes for the Vikings, with the forecast calling for cold and a chance of snow in Chicago Sunday. A desperate Bears team at home taking on a slow-starting Vikings side is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite |
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11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. |
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11-15-14 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 59 m | Show |
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11-13-14 | California +14 v. USC | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy. USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -2 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season. 9* Thursday Roast |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +6 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -103 | 176 h 37 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Carolina Panthers as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday. The Panthers are hungry for a win after going without a victory since early October. They clash with a Philadelphia Eagles team putting a backup QB under center against one of the NFL’s toughest defenses. Mark Sanchez is the man in the City of Brotherly Love, whether Eagles faithful like it or not. An injury to starter Nick Foles has the former Jets QB in the spotlight. Sanchez looked brilliant at moments in relief of Foles last weekend but was picked off twice in the win over Houston. This Chip Kelly offense is all about timing, something Sanchez and his first-team targets haven’t worked on much. Add to that poor chemistry and Carolina team that will bring pressure to put Sanchez on his heels. The Panthers have gone up against three top teams – Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans – the last three weeks, facing three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in three straight losses. Carolina actually did a good job against New Orleans QB Drew Brees and takes a major step down versus Sanchez. The Panthers have the patience and ground game to slow down the Eagles’ up-tempo attack. This rushing attack has been limited in recent games with Carolina playing from behind and forced to abandon the run at times. However, the Panthers combo of RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is finally healthy and, along with Cam Newton’s ability to scramble, should allow them to chew up the turf – and clock – icing Philadelphia’s offense on the sideline. The Eagles’ QB issues and a Panthers team hungry for a win is why I’m playing on Carolina as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday. |
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11-09-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -104 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Buffalo Bills as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Buffalo is coming off the bye week and hosts a streaking Kansas City Chiefs team that could get caught looking ahead to next week’s date with the defending Super Bowl champs. The Bills took back-to-back wins into the bye and roll into this game at 5-3 SU, smack in the middle of the postseason wild card hunt in the AFC. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton, who took over as the starter four games ago, has had the extra week to work with his receivers and that should add some punch to this offense, which is trying to overcome injuries to the rushing corps. Kansas City has had its own issues on offense. The Chiefs are putting up just 22.8 points per game on the road with the passing game struggling to move the chains. Away from Arrowhead, Alex Smith is managing an average of only 196 passing yards and meets a Buffalo defense among the most underrated in the league. The Bills, under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, have done a tremendous job limiting opponents’ chances. Buffalo is giving up just 326 yards per game – eighth in the league – and has forced rival offenses to settle for field goal attempts on 45 percent of their trips inside the red zone at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have been especially stingy against the run, budging for only 3.6 yards per carry – seventh lowest in the NFL – and can put the breaks on Kansas City’s ground game. That defense could crack an unfocused Kansas City team in the mouth, with the Chiefs riding high on their current three-game streak and looking ahead to Week 11’s showdown with the Seattle Seahawks back in Arrowhead. An underrated Bills stop unit and an improving passing game is why I’m playing on Buffalo as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 0 m | Show |
Jets. 10* best bet. Analysis before game day |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Lions as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Detroit took a three-game winning streak into the bye week and takes on a Miami Dolphins team that isn’t as good as its own three-game winning run would lead bettors to believe. The Lions offense is usually the squad getting the headlines but the stop unit is the talk of the town in the Motor City. Detroit ranks No. 1 in yards allowed, giving up only 290 yards per game, and has a dominating front four that is pressuring opposing passers for 23 sacks on the season. Miami has struggled with protection at times and this Lions pass rush can disrupt a Dolphins offense that is finding it form. Not to be outdone, Detroit offense returns its top weapon in WR Calvin Johnson, who has sat out the previous three games with an ankle injury. Johnson is the lifeblood of this offense, which has struggled without him drawing defenders to his side of the field. Detroit has averaged just over 19 points since he went down. The Lions are also getting dynamic RB Reggie Bush back on the field, another weapons the Miami defense must account for. The Dolphins come into Week 10 on a three-game tear but have taken those wins over some teams in tough situations. Miami took advantage of a reeling Bears squad with locker room issues, then beat up on the toothless Jaguars, before hosting a Chargers team that traveled cross country for an early kickoff last Sunday. The Lions defense and its ability to pressure the passer and an offense getting its top target back is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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11-08-14 | Alabama -6.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. |
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11-08-14 | Notre Dame v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. I like the Sun Devils here and it may not be for the reasons you might think. Most folks think offense when they look at ASU and it’s no wonder. The Sun Devils own the No. 22 total offense in the nation and they’ve scored at least 38 points in four games this year. But I like them to beat the Domers on Saturday with defense. Arizona State started a little more slowly than it would’ve liked on defense but the team also had to replace nine starters on defense coming into the season. Lately the Sun Devils are coming into their own and they’ve given up an average of just 15.33 points per game over their last three. They also allowed fewer than 300 yards in each of those games in quality wins over Utah, Washington and Stanford. "I don’t think any team will score more than 20 points on us the rest of the season," said WR Jaelen Strong this week. I think Arizona State will also be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that has gone from stellar in the early season to sloppy recently. The Irish are giving up an average of 37.7 points over their last three contests and they just lost starting linebacker Joe Schmidt for the season to an ankle injury. 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -114 | 118 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on SYRACUSE. Last week I played against Duke when the Blue Devils traveled to Pitt and the difference between covering that game and not was a missed 26-yard field goal by Pitt’s kicker that allowed the game to go to overtime. |
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11-08-14 | Georgia -10 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGIA. Any hopes the Wildcats had of Georgia overlooking them went out the window last week when the Bulldogs took a licking from Florida 38-20 with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +1 | Top | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Pittsburgh Steelers as my 10* Main Event Sunday night. The Steelers have revenge on their minds versus the Baltimore Ravens and come into Week 9 playing some of the best football in the league, with perhaps the hottest quarterback under center. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger put up a game for the ages in a 51-34 victory over the Colts last weekend, throwing for six touchdowns and 522 yards. Big Ben is not likely to repeat that output but he’s had the hot hand, with 1,288 yards passing and 10 touchdowns to one interception in the last four games in which the Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh was embarrassed by Baltimore in Week 2, losing 26-6 and getting shutout of the end zone. The Steelers have covered in three of their last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, with a push in that span, and oddsmakers aren’t giving them much credit despite holding the home edge at Heinz Field. Baltimore has some holes in its defense, most notably starting corner Jimmy Smith. The Ravens have done a good job against the run this season but are allowing 256 yards passing per game – 22nd in the NFL. Pittsburgh has plenty of weapons to choose from and Roethlisberger will exploit any weaknesses he finds in the pass defense. With Pittsburgh red hot and stoked by revenge against the Ravens, I’m playing on Pittsburgh as my 10* Main Event Sunday night. |
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11-02-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Seattle Seahawks -15 | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -108 | 91 h 58 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs have put in three shaky performances – going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS – but have a chance to redeem themselves in front of the infamous 12th Man against the winless Oakland Raiders and rookie QB Derek Carr Sunday. Enough is enough for the Seahawks, who look nothing like the team that dominated Denver in the Super Bowl last February. Seattle’s defense has been nowhere near as imposing, giving up an average of 126 rushing yards against in that three-game span. This divisional spat with the Raiders, who rank dead last in rushing yards (69.6 per game), is a great kick starter to get the Seahawks stop unit back on track. Another hiccup in the Seattle system is the offense, which stalled out for only 13 points in a close win over Carolina last week. Running back Marshawn Lynch has been the center of ridicule, managing just under 59 yards per game in that three-game stretch. Beast Mode will look to shut those doubters up with a big day on the ground against a Oakland defense getting bullied for 130.1 rushing yards per outing – 26th in the NFL. Even the Mother Nature is setting up for a big day from the Seahawks. The forecast for Seattle is calling for soggy weather and temperatures dipping into the 40s – a perfect day for football by CenturyLink Field standards. With Seattle anxious to impress and the Raiders and their rookie passer walking into hostile territory, I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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11-02-14 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 91 h 48 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New England Patriots as my 10* Rivalry Best of the Best Sunday. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady open another chapter in their longstanding rivalry in Week 9. The Patriots have the home-field edge and history on their side Sunday afternoon. Manning and Brady have been going at it for a while. This will be the 16th meeting between the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, with Brady and the Patriots holding a 10-5 SU and 7-6-2 ATS edge. However, historical records don’t hold much water compared to current form, and no team looks hotter than New England heading into Week 9. After many wrote off the Pats in the early going, New England has reeled off four straight victories since losing in embarrassing fashion at Kansas City on Monday Night Football. But despite that roll, oddsmakers are still discounting New England and setting it as a rare home underdog this Sunday. Since his time with the Pats, Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home pup. The Patriots have outscored opponents 158-87 in that four-game span. And while the offense steals a lot of the headlines – especially in this type of matchup – New England’s defense has been one of the best stop units in the league. The Patriots have the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 210.9 yards against per game, and boast eight interceptions and 10 forced fumbles. This unit checked Manning to just 150 yards passing, two touchdowns and an interception in last year’s remarkable comeback in Foxborough. An undervalued Patriots team with a defense stepping up for this big game is why I’m playing New England as my 10* Rivalry Best Game Of The Year. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -135 | 139 h 33 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* AFC Best of the Best Sunday. The Jets are being discounted by the oddsmakers in this road trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs, but have shown a toughness away from home this season. New York is hoping the injection of veteran QB Michael Vick will help spark the offense in Week 9 after struggling to gain ground with second-year passer Geno Smith under center. Smith often tried too hard to be the “pass first” QB, giving up many opportunities to run the ball instead. The Jets won’t have that problem with Vick, who can still chew up big yardage with his legs. The threat of Vick breaking off big gains on the ground will keep the Chiefs defense on its toes, and will likely leave them to designate a linebacker to spy on the QB if Vick can do some damage with the run. That should open up some shorter underneath passes to new playmaker Percy Harvin, who can tack on yards after the catch, as well as budding TE Jace Amaro, who is currently second on the team in receiving yards. Kansas City has done a good job stymieing the passing game this year – ranked tops in the NFL – but have been pushed around by opposing run games. On top of Vick’s ability to scramble, New York is getting great production from RB Chris Ivory. He’s found the end zone five times already and dominated the Patriots on Thursday night two weeks ago, running for 107 yards and picking up 5.1 yards per carry. The Chiefs allowed 171 yards to San Francisco three games ago, but haven’t faced a dominant rushing attack since. The Jets come into Week 9 with the fourth-most potent ground game, at 139.9 yards an outing. New York can control the pace of the game and keep this contest much closer than books expect. A relentless Jets ground game and a Chiefs defense that’s been bulldozed at times this season is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* |
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11-02-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 88 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect on the road in Ohio, despite taking on a Cleveland Browns team that has lost its offensive pace and has benefited from a light schedule. The Buccaneers have dropped some tight games in recent weeks, suffering two overtime losses including a 19-13 defeat in the added frame against Minnesota last weekend. Tampa Bay could easily be 3-1 in its last four and this spread would look a lot different. The Bucs butt heads with a Browns team that has watched the power from its running game go out the window. After marching through opponents to open the season, Cleveland has managed to rush for just 108 yards on 55 carries in its last two outings – an average of just 1.96 yards per run. The power outage on the ground has everything to do with the loss to star center Alex Mack, who is out with a broken leg. Adding to Cleveland’s offensive woes is a concussion to standout TE Jordan Cameron, who is out indefinitely after suffering yet another concussion against Oakland last week. Cameron was QB Brian Hoyer’s safety net and without him and a legit run game to keep the defense honest, Hoyer could find himself under a ton of pressure from a Bucs defense that is still out to prove itself. A hungry Tampa Bay team and a Cleveland offense limping into Week 9 is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
10* Best Bet, Oklahoma State, analysis posted shortly ... |
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11-01-14 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I like the Gamecocks here Saturday as the Vols enter hostile territory in a tough SEC night game environment in Columbia. |
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11-01-14 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -3.5 | Top | 51-48 | Loss | -103 | 64 h 35 m | Show |
I am playing on PITT. I’m expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back after a rough game last week that saw them cough up four turnovers on their first six plays that led to a drubbing before they even realized what time it was. I expect the Panthers to be much better against a more traditional offense like Duke’s this week after facing the triple offense of Georgia Tech last week. Pitt owns the 17th ranked overall defense in the country, the sixth ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked third down conversion defense. Those are the numbers that I feel will be the deciding factors in Saturday’s game. Pitt boasts a force on the ground in James Conner, who leads the ACC with 1,079 yards and 14 TDs. I believe it’s a great recipe for the Panthers in a game that might see some wintry weather with cold temperatures and a possibility of rain or snow. Duke’s rush defense is nothing to write home about with 193 yards against per game, which I expect to be a major advantage for Pitt in controlling the pace of this contest. 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR |
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11-01-14 | Utah State v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -112 | 63 h 53 m | Show |
I am playing on HAWAII. This is a popular game on college Saturdays because bettors easily get caught up in either chasing losses or grabbing one more ‘W’ before NFL Sunday rolls around. It’s the ‘last call’ of the betting world on Saturdays with home games starting around 11 p.m. ET due to Hawaii’s time zone. Despite that, I rarely offer plays on Warriors games unless I really like them and this week is one of those games. Hawaii is getting points on home turf against a team they matchup very similarly statistically with and that’s facing the tough travel to paradise. "Those guys play with their hair on fire," Utah State Matt Wells said this week. "They play hard, they chase the football and play with tremendous effort. I know that is something [Clune] has instilled in them and demanded out of them. I think that's very, very evident when you flip on the tape." The Warriors will have an improving O-line to help them do that that is finally getting healthy after some early injuries to start the year. The O-line has given up just three sacks through its first three conference games, which will come in handy against a Utah State squad that is best at stopping the run. What the Aggies aren’t so good at is getting yards when they need them. Utah State, which is seriously depleted at the QB position, ranks 118th in the country in third down conversions and nearly dead last at 124th in fourth down conversion percentage. Utah State also ranks near the worst in the country in penalty yards per game and Hawaii has long been known to get the benefit of the doubt on penalties at Aloha Stadium. The Warriors haven't forgotten last year's 47-10 blowout loss - they'll be looking for some payback here and will be anxious to show how much they've improved. As always, the visiting team is in tough when traveling to Hawaii. Utah State planned to leave Thursday, giving them shorter prep time than usual to prepare for Saturday’s game. 10* Revenge GOY |
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10-30-14 | Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on TROY. At first glance, you see the Trojans are just 1-7 straight up this season and struggling in the final year for their storied coach Larry Blakeney. Upon closer inspection we see that Troy is 4-4 against the spread this year and all four of their covers came against winning teams. In short, Troy gets up for better teams and it plays down to its competition. Georgia Southern is certainly one of those better teams as the current leader of the Sun Belt Conference and I expect a big effort from the Trojans in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Georgia Southern relies almost entirely on its ground game to move the chains for 402 yards per game rushing. That’s about 50 yards more than any other team in the country on the ground. The two things I like about that are: 1. A so-so Trojans defense doesn’t have to worry much about a passing game and 2. This offense has the potential to eat a ton of time on the clock. This is the biggest spread Ga. Southern has seen all season and I see the sand falling to the bottom of the hour glass before the Eagles have a chance to cover this lofty number. Troy is working with two QBs right now under center but both are mobile and can improvise when needed. I like that factor heading into Thursday along with kickoff threat Chandler Worthy, who ranks 15th in the country in kickoff returns this season. He’s returned two kicks for touchdowns and if Troy can’t get its offense moving, it will likely often work from decent field position at least. 10* Best Bet |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Washington Redskins as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Redskins have a chance to catch the Dallas Cowboys in a perfect letdown spot on Monday Night Football and won’t roll over for their hated divisional rival, presenting some great value against the spread. Washington has played Dallas hard in past meetings, covering the spread in seven of their last eight games. The Cowboys come into Week 8 fat and cocky off two massive wins. Dallas stunned Seattle in CenturyLink Field two weeks ago then followed that with a one-sided win against the Giants last Sunday. With an important NFC tilt against the Cardinals on tap, Washington can also catch the Cowboys looking ahead. The Redskins snapped a four-game skid with a win over Tennessee last Sunday. Washington is handing the ball to third-string QB Colt McCoy this Monday, with head coach Jay Gruden putting his full confidence in the former Texas star. McCoy looked great in relief of Kirk Cousins last week, completing 11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. Washington has dangerous weapons around McCoy in WRs Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, who was a thorn in the side of the Cowboys during his tenure with the Eagles. Washington’s defense continues to stay under the radar, despite limiting opponents to just 321.9 yards per game – sixth lowest in the NFL. The Redskins have an aggressive defensive line that will make life tough on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who is still limited by his nagging back injury. If they can plug the running lanes and keep RB DeMarco Murray from finding daylight, it could be a long night for the Dallas offensive line. A unfocused Dallas team and an undervalued Washington side is why I’m playing on Washington as my 10* Best Bet Monday. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 156 h 55 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Main Event Sunday. New Orleans is back home in the Superdome with a chance to make a statement in the NFC and springboard itself back into the Super Bowl conversation against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football The Saints are kicking themselves after letting the Lions steal a win in Week 7, giving up two late touchdowns to Detroit and losing 24-23 on the road. New Orleans has its back against the wall, sitting at just 2-4 SU and ATS on the season, needing a big game on the NFL’s big stage Sunday night. This team is a different animal at home, and has been for a long time. The Saints have covered in 36 of their previous 53 home games – 68 percent – and are a perfect 6-0 SU at home on Sunday night under head coach Sean Payton, who took over the clipboard in 2006. These two teams have produced some lofty scores in recent history, but the Saints could opt to exploit the Packers’ biggest weakness – the run defense – Sunday night. Green Bay is allowing 147.7 yards on the ground per game, which ranks second worst in the NFL. New Orleans lost RB Pierre Thomas last week but returns Mark Ingram and has a dangerous weapon in Khiry Robinson, who has shown his explosiveness this season. New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will likely follow his brother Rex’s gameplan versus Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. Rex Ryan’s Jets sacked Rodgers four times and limited the former MVP to a 59.5 completion percentage. Look for an aggressive pass rush from New Orleans, which was able to get three sacks on Detroit QB Matt Stafford and pick off two passes last Sunday. A desperate Saints squad right at home on Sunday night is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Main Event Sunday. |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Bengals are ripe for a rebound after a dismal showing against the Colts in Week 7 and can’t afford a loss to AFC North rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati is happy to be back home in Paul Brown Stadium, where it averages 31.3 points per game – compared to just 13.3 on the road. The Bengals actually play their next three games at home, allowing the team to relax and focus on football heading into this important Week 8 matchup. Cincinnati is a moneymaker in Cleveland, covering the spread in 13 of their last 16 home stands. The Bengals were able to edge the Ravens on the road in Week 1, getting a tremendous game from its defense which limited Baltimore to 16 points and forced two turnovers. Cincinnati will have LB Vontaze Burfict on the field after he suffered a neck injury last week. Burfict was a dominating force in the opener against Baltimore before leaving the game with a concussion – a dramatic turning point in that Week 1 contest. Baltimore has picked up back-to-back wins against lesser opponents, misleading the odds for this divisional grudge match. The Ravens rolled over the hapless Buccaneers 48-17 in Week 6 and then handled the Falcons with ease, winning 29-7 last Sunday. Those one-sided victories came against defenses ranked 32nd and 30th respectively. And while the Bengals defense currently sits between those clubs at 31st, this stop unit has shown its teeth. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in turnover ratio, registering 10 takeaways while turning the ball over just five times. A home-happy Bengals team and an overrated Ravens side is why I’m playing Cincinnati as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. |
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10-26-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 51 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Buccaneers are off the bye and at home to one of the few NFL teams on par with them in the NFL power ratings, the Minnesota Vikings, who are bound for a letdown after a heartbreaking loss in Week 7. Tampa Bay enjoyed a bye this past week, with head coach Lovie Smith tinkering with a defense that is allowing a league-worst 34 points per game. The Bucs have run some tough road in recent weeks, facing myriad of elite passers in Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan – three of which have quarterbacked Super Bowl winners. Tampa Bay gets a break with rookie Teddy Bridgewater under center for the Vikings. Bridgewater has only one touchdown pass to five interceptions, and doesn’t present the deep threat the Bucs have feared in recent games. Minnesota has been miserable at protecting its franchise future, allowing opponents to sack its quarterback 19 times in the past three games. The Vikings face a familiar foe in former head coach and current Bucs defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier Sunday. Frazier, who was fired from Minnesota last December, has first-hand knowledge of the Vikings personnel and will look to exploit that inside info in Week 8. Minnesota comes into Week 8 already on its heels. The Vikings lost 17-16 to Buffalo Sunday on a last-second touchdown, handing the team its third straight loss. That deflating result, plus the fact Minnesota has scored 10 or fewer points in four of its seven games sets up perfect for a Tampa Bay team in need of a break. An opportunistic Bucs team and the Vikings’ offensive woes is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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10-25-14 | Alabama v. Tennessee +17.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
I am playing on TENNESSEE. You may be looking at Alabama’s win 59-0 last week – its largest margin of victory since 1979 – and wondering why I’m taking the Vols this Sunday. It’s actually because of that big win. I believe oddsmakers have set this line too high in anticipation of Tide supporters who will inevitably jump on Bama no matter what the line was set at after a win like that. I feel Tennessee’s stout defense can grind this game down to an old-fashioned SEC hit fest, leaving the spread looking way too generous for the underdog by the time the final whistle blows. The Vols own the No. 6 pass defense and the 19th overall defense in the nation. They also own the seventh ranked third down conversion defense in the land, which is an area Bama has had success this season on offense. The Vols will use a sold out crowd (and an angry one thanks to Lane Kiffin) to help keep Bama off balance on those third down spots where the Tide normally keep the chains moving. I see that leading to some promising field position and a running clock for the Vols, factors which will help them cover the number. Another element I really like here is that it t’s no secret Alabama is much less comfortable on the road than at home lately. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the spread in their last four road outings. 10* Best Bet |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -1 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -104 | 93 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe the Cowboys will use a deafening home crowd at the ‘Greatest American Homecoming Celebration’ this Saturday to help propel them to a win over West Virginia. Oddsmakers are anticipating the public will overreact to the Cowboys’ 42-9 loss to TCU last week, which is why OK State isn’t favored by more points here. That game was the worst of the season for the Pokes and I expect them to bounce back this week. Part of the problem in that loss was an inability to establish a running game. Oklahoma State came into the contest hoping to establish a ground presence but was ultimately stymied by TCU’s 38th nationally ranked rush defense. This week the Cowboys face a weaker West Virginia run defense that allows 167 yards rushing per game. I believe that will help Oklahoma State set up its passing game and get back to scoring points after an off week versus TCU. Another factor I love about this game is that one of the key mismatches between these two teams is in the red zone. Oklahoma State owns the 15th best red zone offense in the country while West Virginia owns the 117th ranked red zone defense. I feel that will prove extra costly for a West Virginia team that is one of the absolute worst in the country in turnover margin (-1.57) ranked 123rd. OK State - 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 120 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on the BRONCOS. Denver appears to have hit its stride after struggling prior to the bye week, winning handily over the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets. Its reward: a home date with a San Francisco 49ers unit that fell asleep at the switch early on before rallying to beat St. Louis. Led by Peyton Manning and his usual cast of characters, the Denver offense has rolled to 72 points over the past two games - and probably could have scored a lot more than that if it really wanted to. Aside from a rough three-quarter stretch in Seattle - where more than a few teams have had trouble over the years - Manning and the Broncos have looked an awful lot like they did last season. Expect the Broncos to pick on the 49ers’ secondary, particularly since they will likely struggle to do much on the ground. San Francisco fell behind 14-0 early against the Rams and was fortunate to pull away, taking advantage of several St. Louis miscues. The 49ers shouldn’t expect a repeat from a Broncos side that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL (318.2). Add in a decimated 49ers defensive line that will be likely be without Patrick Willis, and the Broncos are primed for a big win in prime time. 10* - SNF Game Of The Year |
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10-19-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 140 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on the RAIDERS. Oakland is still looking for its first outright win, but looked good in last week’s narrow loss to San Diego and remains home for a date with an Arizona Cardinals team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing pass attacks all season long. I’m not expecting much rushing in this one; the Cardinals rank 30th in yards-per-game average (85.6) and third in fewest yards allowed (75.8) while the Raiders are averaging just 72 yards per contest on the ground. But rookie Raiders quarterback Derek Carr erupted for 282 yards and four scores against a Chargers defense that came in as one of the stingiest against the pass - and now he gets to feast on a Cards secondary allowing a league-high 309 yards per contest through the air. Oakland is also resilient, going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 350 or more yards in its previous outing. With the Cardinals expecting to start either Carson Palmer, who chucked 13 interceptions in eight road games last season, or unproven Drew Stanton, who has completed fewer than 49 percent of his passes, I don’t have faith that the offense will score enough to make up for what could be a rough day on the Arizona D. 10* - Non-Conference Game Of The Year |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers -3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
I’m playing on the CHARGERS. Philip Rivers and Co. have been one of the most impressive home teams so far this season, outscoring the opposition 94-35. And while the visiting Kansas City Chiefs have looked decent in their three road outings so far in 2014, I don’t how they can match Rivers on offense - or stop him on defense. Rivers has led the Chargers to five wins in a row, with the offense putting up 30 or more points four times in that stretch. And while that run includes victories over Jacksonville, the New York Jets and Oakland - three teams that aren’t exactly Super Bowl contenders - it kicked off with triumphs over Seattle and Buffalo. Rivers has dissected every defense he has encountered since Week 2, and the Chiefs - despite ranking seventh in opposing passing yards per game (214.4) - shouldn’t mount much resistance. Kansas City’s running game needs to be respected - Jamaal Charles is a phenomenal talent, and his backup (Knile Davis) did terrific work in his absence. But Alex Smith and the passing game has been largely underwhelming yet again, ranked second-last in yards per game (197.4) with just eight touchdowns through five games. As good as Charles is, he can’t do it himself against a Chargers team that should challenge the 30-point plateau. San Diego comes in 7-1 ATS in its last eight games; expect that trend to continue this week. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-19-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 22 m | Show |
I’m playing on the JAGUARS. Jacksonville nearly pulled out its first win of the season in Tennessee last weekend, and now returns home to face a Cleveland Browns team that is giving up more than 400 yards per game. I’ll happily take the points here, even with the Jags’ offense still struggling to find its legs. The switch from Chad Henne to Blake Bortles hasn’t yet resulted in more points on the scoreboard, but it has allowed Jacksonville to sustain longer drives and keep the beleaguered defense fresh. The Jaguars averaged just over 24 minutes of possession time in its first three games, and close to 29 minutes in three contests since. That has had a major impact on a defensive unit that has limited opponents to 33 combined points in back-to-back losses. The Jaguars are also committed to running the ball more - and that could cause a problem for a Browns defense surrendering the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (149.6). And these aren’t elite rushing games the Browns are facing - they allow 149 yards on the ground against Tennessee, 160 versus Baltimore and 174 to New Orleans. Jacksonville hasn’t run the ball well all season - but I believe they’ll do so with plenty of success this Sunday. 10* - Best Bet |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Jameis Winston (probable) and the Seminoles offense is on a three-week stretch of dominance, and that should continue unabated against a Fighting Irish team that has been solid defensively for most of the season, but inexplicably gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week. The Irish are fortunate to still be unbeaten at this point, having turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Quarterback Everett Golson has thrown four picks in his previous three contests and completed barely 50 percent of his combined passes in wins over Stanford and the Tar Heels. The Seminoles turned three Syracuse turnovers into 10 points last week, and will make Golson and Notre Dame pay for not holding on to the football. And let’s be real: this pick is mostly about the Florida State offense, which should pick apart Notre Dame’s young, suspect secondary. The Seminoles have racked up 1,489 yards of total offense over their last three games, coinciding with Winston’s return to the lineup. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, and have won their last 10 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium by an average of 41.8 points. I expect Winston to play and I expect a double-digit win. 10* - Main Event |
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10-18-14 | Oklahoma State +9 v. TCU | Top | 9-42 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 33 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Cowboys have yet to play a bad game this season - they gave top-ranked Florida State all it could handle before falling just short in the season opener, then reeled off five straight victories while scoring more than 35 points four times. Take them as an underdog against TCU? Don’t mind if I do. From a trends perspective, Oklahoma State has plenty going for it. It’s 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 October games, and 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 conference tilts. The Cowboys are in the top 30 nationally in points per game, and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Simply put, they’re one of the most balanced teams out there - not only in the Big 12, but in the NCAA. The Horned Frogs have an impressive offence in their own right, but they’ve been put in their place on the defensive end after a strong showing against a trio of pretenders. TCU surrendered 94 points against Oklahoma and Baylor, and should face a similar challenge against quarterback Daxx Garman and a relentless Cowboys attack. And while Horned Frogs junior QB Trevone Boykin is a talent, he completed just 41-of-85 passes against the Sooners and Bears - and that won’t fly against Oklahoma State. 10* - Best Bet |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 114 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on ALABAMA. Saturday’s matchup against visiting Texas A&M is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, and until I see Kenny Hill and the Aggies prove they can play four solid quarters against quality opposition, they can’t be trusted - especially in hostile Tuscaloosa. Texas A&M’s once-formidable offense has all but disappeared over the first three quarters of its last three games, registering just 38 points over that span. Hill and the boys can’t seem to get things going until the fourth quarter - and if they wait that long against the Crimson Tide, they could find themselves down by four touchdowns - and no team comes back from that kind of deficit at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama looked shaky at times in a loss to Ole Miss and a narrow win over Arkansas, but I’m not betting against the Tide at home. Especially not with the Aggies having surrendered 83 points over their last two games and boasting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven conference games. This is also Alabama’s lone home game in a six-week stretch, so you know they’re going to come out firing. 10* - Personal Favorite |
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10-18-14 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma -8 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners come into this one ready to prove that last week’s win over Texas wasn’t a fluke, even though the numbers suggest it may have been. Oklahoma remains a contender for the Big 12 title despite struggling in back-to-back games, and recent trends suggest they should have little trouble handling visiting Kansas State on Saturday. The Sooners have played down to the level of their competition at times over the past few years, but they’ve also shown an innate ability to get up for good teams. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. And the Sooners don’t let bad games affect them moving forward, having gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Don’t expect Oklahoma’s defensive struggles to continue through the weekend. The Wildcats have played just one road game this season, and came nowhere near covering in that one, escaping with a 32-28 victory over Iowa State despite going in as an 11 1/2-point favorite. Kansas State boasts one of the more potent running games in the conference - averaging 4 1/2 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns - but could have fits against an Oklahoma defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. And if the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, it could be a long day in Norman. 10* - Breakfast Club |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 164 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional Best Of Best Sunday. Philadelphia can make a statement in the NFC East with a win over the New York Giants, who have won three in a row since dropping their first two contests. The Eagles are scoring on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, finding the end zone on blocked punts and punt returns while also scoring off an interception return. Philadelphia is getting excellent play from its special teams, especially a return unit that is giving the offense tremendous starting field position. The offense has needed that help in recent games. Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack has sputtered a bit, with QB Nick Foles making some costly mistakes. However, Kelly cracked down on Foles and has tinkered with his passer leading into this Sunday night game, confident he can find his form again. The Giants defense has been able to capitalize on some friendly defensive matchups recently. New York faced Houston without RB Arian Foster, caught Washington backup Kirk Cousins in a bad place, and hosted an Atlanta team that can’t score on the road this past weekend. In the first two games of the season, the G-Men coughed up 60 combined points and will be exposed again in Philadelphia. New York is also prone to mistakes on the offensive end, especially QB Eli Manning. While he’s been solid during the team’s winning streak, Manning threw four picks to start the season and totaled 27 interceptions last season – three of which came against the Eagles. This Philadelphia defense can turn those errors into points very quickly. A Philadelphia team capable of scoring points on offense, defense and special teams, as well as a mistake-prone Giants side is why I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH Sunday. |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 160 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Silver and Black are under new leadership for the time being, with Dennis Allen getting the ax and fiery Tony Sporano taking over on an interim basis. The team has responded in a positive light and are a live underdog against the San Diego Chargers in Week 6. Sporano got things started with a bang in the Bay Area, prompting his players to bury a football representing the team’s slow start to the season. By the looks of things, and reports out of practice, there’s new life in the Raiders coming into Sunday. The drills were smoother and quicker, the team seemed more focused and an importance on fundamental football has play looking sharper. On the other side of the field, the Chargers are scrambling to fill holes on their depth chart thanks to a rash of injuries. The rushing corps was already depleted with the losses of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, but now that fellow RB Donald Brown is dealing with a concussion the Bolts are scrambling to find capable bodies to run the football – even going as far as giving veteran Ronnie Brown another go-around. On top of the banged-up running game, San Diego is down to its fourth-string center after Doug Legursky was placed on IR this week. The Chargers are forced to slide rookie guard Chris Watt to center for this Sunday’s game, throwing a major wrench in the Bolts offense. The Raiders defense, which is expected to pick up the pace with Sporano making the calls, will test that weakness in the Bolts’ offensive line. Without a running game to keep Oakland honest, expect plenty of blitz packages from the Raiders as they try to rush QB Philip Rivers in the pocket. Points may be hard to come by, even for this Chargers attack that has seemed so potent at times. A revitalized Oakland side and a Chargers teams frantically trying to fill holes is why I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet. |
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10-11-14 | LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on LSU. The Gators are in a bit of a mess entering this week while LSU will be hungry to rebound after a humbling loss to Auburn last week. Florida’s offense has been nothing to brag about amid quarterback struggles this season. But last week it appeared for a fleeting moment like they had a solution. Backup QB Treon Harris came off the bench and was just efficient enough to propel the Gators to a 10-9 win over Tennessee. The bad news for Florida is the team has placed him on interim suspension following sexual assault allegations against Harris that came on Monday. The incident allegedly took place in the wee hours of Sunday morning and the Gators have been dealing with all the distractions and the media circus that come with that kind of controversy. It means Florida will return to Jeff Driskel, who couldn’t find a Gator in the Everglades right now. He hasn’t been able to throw for even 100 yards in each of his last two games with one measly touchdown pass and five interceptions combined in those games. LSU has been having its own QB issues but the Tigers couldn’t have caught Florida at a better time here. LSU is also 4-1 against the spread its last five games coming off a straight up loss. Coach Les Miles knows how to get his team to rebound and I strongly believe LSU will take down the Gators in the Swamp. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 138 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on MICHIGAN. The Wolverines just might come into this game with the biggest home edge in all of college football this week. This will be the Wolverines’ first Big Ten night game in Michigan Stadium’s 88-year history and they’ll be playing it with huge revenge motivation after Penn State won and covered the last five meetings in the series. This is only the third home night game in Michigan’s history and the school set an attendance record each of the previous two occurences. I believe a hostile crowd of over 110,000 will make life miserable for Penn State on Saturday and the Nittany Lions will fall short in an old fashioned style Big Ten battle where two great defenses will gut it out. There isn’t much to separate these two on defense but where Michigan has a key advantage is the Wolverines are 15-for-15 in red zone opportunities this year. That makes them only one of five schools in the country to be perfect in that category. In a game where I anticipate limited red zone opportunities, I like Michigan to fulfill what the home crowd is looking for on Saturday. 10* Big Ten GOM |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I believe there is a spot here to fade Notre Dame at a time where this very public Irish team is being lauded in the media and visions of national championships and Heisman Trophies are dancing in the heads of Irish supporters. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the spread this year, but I see a quickly improving team that’s getting a generous helping of points on Saturday. Their weakness has been on defense – mainly its youth - where they brought an inexperienced batch of starters to the field. Things are starting jell now and last week they allowed the fewest number of yards since their season opening victory against Liberty. The Heels held Virginia Tech to a respectable 357 yards and eventually it was the offense’s three turnovers in bad spots, all of which led to touchdowns, that doomed UNC. I believe UNC will take better care of the ball this week and throw some things at Notre Dame that will keep the Irish guessing. The Heels say they’ll stick with a dual quarterback rotation of Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky. They’ll use the two to continue to run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense that aims to keep the Irish unsettled on defense and I believe that will ultimately help them cover this big number. 10* Best Bet |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +1.5 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The betting public could barely wait for oddsmakers to release this line before they started throwing money down on the Bengals for this Sunday night matchup. I believe they’re throwing money down the drain and here’s why. Let’s keep in mind that the Patriots are 2-2 this season, not 0-4 like the recent dooms day media coverage would suggest. That’s still good enough for a three-way tie for tops in the AFC East. The Pats are at home this week where they’ve won 10 straight games and gone 7-3 against the spread in those efforts. They’ve also won and covered in their last four home games against winnings teams, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick tend to rise to the occasion. This line is skewed by the fact the Pats are coming off one of their worst losses in the Brady-Belichick era but I always caution bettors not to overreact to one game. I’m focusing instead on the fact the Pats own the fourth-best total defense in the league and the best passing defense. That will be enough to keep New England close and allow Brady and the offense to snap out of their passing funk. The Pats can only go up on offense and there’s no better spot for them to quiet the apocalyptic criticism than at home in a Sunday Nighter. 10* Main Event |
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10-05-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I believe the 49ers will stop the Chiefs’ momentum and send them spiraling back to earth after Sunday’s game. Kansas City was able to handle the Patriots last week on home soil by bullying them at the line of scrimmage. I don’t see that happening this week on hostile ground in San Francisco. The Niners have one of the best front seven units in the NFL and the their O-line is coming off its best game of the season after running back Frank Gore dashed for 118 yards against the Eagles. San Fran owns the second best overall defense in the NFL and they have a knack for turning the ball over with five interceptions and four fumble recoveries. They’ll also be very comfortable playing against their former QB Alex Smith on the other side of the field. On offense, the Niners present a challenge the Chiefs haven’t truly faced yet this year – a legit dual threat QB. Colin Kaepernick leads the NFL with 187 rushing yards and though he doesn’t rack up a ton of mileage through the air, he is efficient with a 66.9 completion percentage. The Niners offense also knows how to move the chains when it needs to, ranking fifth in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-05-14 | Chicago Bears v. Carolina Panthers -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 25 m | Show |
I’m playing on CAROLINA. Panthers QB Cam Newton faces one of his favorite teams to throw against on Sunday, which is just what Carolina needs to snap out of its two-game losing streak. Newton has passed for over 300 yards each of the last two times he faced the Bears and don’t be surprised if he does it a third straight time. The Bears secondary ranks a disappointing 20th in the league in passing yards allowed and they have struggled to consistently bring a pass rush. (They rank just 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed.) On offense, the Bears were thankful to see running back Matt Forte explode for 122 yards rushing last week while QB Jay Cutler struggles to establish some rhythm through the air. The problem with that for the Bears is they have a banged up offensive line that suffered another blow in practice this week when starting left tackle Jermon Bushrod hurt his knee and had to leave the field. Carolina is an undervalued squad that has been the victim of a nasty schedule to start the season. I see them handling the Bears on Sunday in front of the home crowd. 10* Breakfast Club |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on AUBURN. Auburn Tigers faithful have been waiting since 2010 to taste another victory against SEC West foe LSU and I believe they won’t have to wait any longer than this weekend. Auburn is in a perfect spot here with a drastically improved, stifling defensive unit that will face a freshman quarterback about to make his first college start. Auburn ranks better statistically in just about every defensive category compared to last year’s team, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed. LSU, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the consistency it would like on offense which is why the Tigers are starting Brandon Harris. Harris led seven touchdown drives last game – but that was against New Mexico State in a friendly atmosphere. I’m anticipating he’ll learn some tough lessons on Saturday. 10* Personal Favorite |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 104 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. After losing two straight heartbreakers, the Saints got a long overdue win last week at home. They beat Minnesota 20-9 as 9.5-point favorites within the friendly confines of the Superdome. But having to hit the road for a third time in four weeks has tempered enthusiasm here, meaning we can get away with laying a pretty short number against a still suspect Cowboys team. Dallas had a huge come from behind victory Sunday, beating the Rams 34-31. They trailed early 21-0 and for the first time we saw the Cowboys defense play poorly. They gave up 448 yards and allowed St. Louis to convert 8 of 13 on third down. Not a good sign when getting set to face Drew Brees. These teams played last year and the results were ugly if you were a Cowboys fan. The game was in New Orleans and the Saints won 49-17 with Brees connecting on 34 of his 41 pass attempts. It was his third straight game throwing for at least 350 yards against this Dallas defense. The offense set a NFL record, gaining 40 first downs. The Saints are clearly not the same team on the road. They are 0-2 this year and lost four straight regular season road games. But that lack of success has not applied to Dallas. Brees is 3-0 all-time on the road vs. the Cowboys. I'd say that Brees should look to pick on Cowboys' cornerback Mo Claiborne in this one, but the defender's role is going to be greatly reduced here after an awful game vs. St. Louis and storming out of practice earlier this week. But if Claiborne is the starter, that gives you an idea on just how bad the reserves are. Ultimately, the Saints are going to win some road games. This one is not outdoors, which works to the benefit of their offense. The defense obviously made a ton of strides last week vs. Minnesota. Dallas is just 6-11 ATS its last 17 home games including 1-4 ATS last five. 10* main event. |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | Top | 21-26 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The 49ers are a team that really needs to win this week. They're 1-2 and have faded badly in the second half of back to back losses to Chicago and Arizona. Really, had it not been for a turnover-fueled first half lead against Dallas, things could actually be worse. Despite this, I had expected bettors to leap on San Francisco this week in a must-win spot as they host Philadelphia. The sharp money did initially, but since then the line has held as the majority of tickets have actually come in on the underdog. A contrarian by nature, I often find myself on the opposite side of the public. That is the case here. Obviously what the public sees here is a 3-0 team getting points. But the Eagles are not your ordinary 3-0 team. In all three games they have had to come from behind. They've trailed in all three games by 10 or more points at one point. Prior to this, no team had ever started a season 3-0 when trailing by double digits in each game. An early hole here wouldn't be as easy for Philadelphia to climb out of. On paper, the 49ers are a team designed to protect leads. That has been their signature the past three seasons under Jim Harbaugh. But strangely, it's been a different story this year. In the first halves of games, San Francisco has outscored opponents 59-16. In the second half, they are looking at a 52-3 deficit. That's stunning, but not irreversible. I would say the next time we see them get out to a big lead (here?), they will close out in familiar form. One key trend is that San Francisco has yet to lose three straight games under Harbaugh. Last year in Week 4, they were off two straight losses and routed St. Louis 35-11. That's the only time they'd lost two straight under Harbaugh. Philadelphia's isn't without its own issues, on both sides of the football. They've allowed 61 points the last two games and if you take out the second half vs. Jacksonville, they have given up an average of 10 points per quarter. They haven't sacked the quarterback in the last two games. The offensive line, which was so good last season, is dealing with multiple injuries. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Anyone that was expecting an early season drop off from Duke after the Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal last year has to be scratching their head. Then again the level of competition hasn't been too great for David Cutcliffe's team, which is now 4-0 SU after a 47-13 win over Tulane last week. Things definitely get tougher this week as Duke visits Coral Gables to play a Hurricanes team that will a) be out for revenge and b) angry after losing last week at Nebraska. The revenge comes from a 48-30 loss last year in Durham. Miami was coming off back to back losses there and were without Duke Johnson, who got injured in the Florida State game. Before last year, Miami had not lost to Duke going all the way back to 1976. Last week's loss to Nebraska saw Miami get run over and commit five personal foul penalties in the second half alone. The penalties can be corrected. The poor run defense could be an issue, but at least they won't be up against Ameer Abdullah again. The big difference for Miami on offense this year compared to last is the presence of their own running back Johnson. So far, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Had the team not fallen behind in both losses, Johnson could perhaps have been used more effectively. QB Brad Kaaya has steadily improved over the course of four games. The freshman has thrown for over 300 yards each of the last two games. Against Nebraska, he was 28 of 42 for a career best 359 yards. Though one-point away from being 4-0 ATS, the competition just hasn't been that great for Duke, who has played Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. While the stats may not support Miami being the favorite here, I'll still side with their superior athleticism and individual matchup advantages. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-27-14 | Stanford v. Washington +8 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This is a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Washington has played Stanford tough each of the last two years, including a 17-13 upset at home in 2012. Last year's game was 31-28 in favor of Stanford, but it was UW that held the 489 to 279 edge in total yards. They covered as eight-point underdogs. Now, we have a similar line, only this time in Seattle. Seems like a pretty good value to me. I know it's coach Chris Petersen's first year, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS their last five as home dogs. Washington has started 4-0 for Petersen, which is the first time a coach has started that well at the school in over a century. It wasn't easy last week as they actually trailed Georgia State 14-0 (as five TD favorites!) before closing the game on a 45-0 run during which they would outgain their opponent 231 to 73. Winning the turnover margin, 4-0, did the Huskies a lot of favors obviously last week. Personally, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that early deficit. I had Washington the week previous when they blew out Illinois 44-19. Stanford is off a bye. Both wins this year have been shutouts. But they have suffered a very frustrating loss, to USC, even though they moved the ball well in that game. Coming off the bye, naturally you would expect the Cardinal to be "amped up." But those who have played in Husky Stadium aren't shy about letting you know that it's one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, if you're the road team. A young Stanford offensive line could struggle Saturday afternoon. Washington is 19-3 straight up its last 22 home games. 10* best bet. |
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09-27-14 | Tennessee v. Georgia -17 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. If the current number holds, this would be the largest pointspread in the history of the Georgia-Tennessee rivalry. Frankly, it's indicative of the way this SEC East matchup has gone in recent years. Georgia has won four years in a row, and while the last three have been pretty close games, this one figures to be a blowout. The Bulldogs come into this game off a 66-0 beatdown of Troy that saw them run for 367 yards, their most ever under coach Mark Richt. That's with Heisman candidate Todd Gurley running the ball only six times. So Gurley will be at full strength here and that's bad news for a Tennessee team that's coming off a 34-10 loss to Oklahoma. In doing so, the Vols allowed 7.4 yards per carry to a freshman running back. The Volunteers had an off-week after losing to OU, but I don't see it helping much against a far superior opponent. This has been a program on the decline for some time. Tennessee just can't hang with the big boys anymore. They did upset South Carolina last season, but also lost to Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn all by two touchdowns or more. Tennessee is a young team dealing with injuries. That's a bad combo when heading "between the hedges." Two of the team's top five receivers may not play here, which would be a crippling blow. It's already been confirmed that Von Pearson will not play in this game. Additionally, no team in America has played more true freshman this season than the Vols have. They've sent 22 such players onto the field after just four games. I've also been impressed with Georgia QB Hutson Mason, who is completing 71.2 percent of his passes this year. The Bulldogs are going to be just too much for the Vols. 10* main event |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants +3.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on the GIANTS. While the Giants won last week to improve their record to 1-2, the Redskins lost (but covered) and now find themselves in the same place in the NFC East standings. I see the value as being on the dog in this one. Eli Manning is finally starting to look like Eli Manning again. He comes off his best game of the season, completing 21 of 28 passes against Houston for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn't throw an interception. Manning was also supplemented with a nice running game, courtesy of Rashad Jennings going for 176 yards. While the Giants ended up winning by a final score of only 30-17, it wasn't even that close. They outgained Houston 262 to 83 in the 1st half. Again, perhaps the most important thing is that they won the turnover battle for the 1st time in a game this season. Everyone has been quick to jump on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon in Washington. But while the backup quarterback has put up some impressive stats so far, all he has to show for it is a win over the winless Jaguars. He has faced two bad defenses thus far as well. The home team has dominated Thursday night football so far, but under coach Tom Coughlin, New York is 3-1 ATS on TNF. Coughlin is also 11-8-1 ATS and 14-6 straight up vs. the Redskins in his time on the Giants sidelines. The Giants swept the Redskins last season. Both games came late in the year. While Washington was a bad team in 2013, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Cousins started the second of the two games. He played very poorly, completing just 19 of 49 passes while also throwing two interceptions. Also important is pointing out that the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this NFC East rivalry. 10* best bet. |