Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..." While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +4 | 51-0 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. While the Chanticleers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers are an opponent which can absolutely trade points with them. While Coastal Carolina averages 38 ppg, Georgia State averages 42. With the exception of a 49-29 blowout win over ECU, all Georgia State's games have been close. I like the way that the Panthers found a way to win (39-37) against Troy last week. The Panthers are going to be absolutely fired up. This is a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. The Panthers have seen the video of Coastal Carolina, which has been going viral, celebrating after last week's win - and they do NOT intend to be another victim. Georgia State brought back a lot of starters from the team which won 31-21, at Coastal Carolina, last season. The previous season, the game here was decided by just three. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the upset-minded home underdog. |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 60 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Wyoming UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 30 points in their last meeting. Their previous game also produced less than 50. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the number. On a chilly night in Laramie, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. In winning its opener, Hawaii played stingy defense and ran the ball frequently. Senior defensive back Eugene Ford, who had two INTs, noted: "All the credit goes to my defensive) line. Them boys were getting after that quarterback... all the credit goes to them, but it felt good." Overall, the Hawaii D had four takeaways. On the other side, dealing with the conditions and having missed some practice time, Hawaii figures to keep it fairly. Likewise with Wyoming, which lost its starting QB to a broken leg last week. While the final numbers didn't look good (37-34 OT loss) the Wyoming defense did have eight tackles for a loss (3 sacks) last week. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high and I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern OVER 50.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Georgia Southern OVER the total. The Eagles are favored in this matchup. However, if they're going to win, they're going to need to score. That's because the Jaguars have scored 30 or more in back-to-back games. Last week, they put up 38 against LA-Monroe. While the offense struggled to score on the road, at ranked Coastal Carolina, the Eagles scored 41 the last time they played at home. They've got a strong rushing attack which should help them move the ball with relative ease against a porous South Alabama run defense. The last meeting between these teams, here at Georgia Southern, had an O/U line of 55 and finished with 61. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 170 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 55 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing Seattle/Arizona OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when Arizona last played. Yes, the Cardinal defense played well. However, that was against a Cowboy team playing its first game without Prescott. Now, the Cards face Russell Wilson and the high-flying Seahawks, a team which will score far more points against them than Dallas did. The Seahawks managed "only" 27 points last game. It was the first time that they hadn't cracked the 30 mark. They average a whopping 33.8 ppg, the #1 mark in the NFL. However, the 27 ppg which the Hawks allow ranks them just 19th. While the Arizona defense is good, the New England defense is considered pretty good, too. Yet, Seattle put 35 up against the Pats. Unable to stop Wilson and co, the Cards will need Murray and the offense to make things happen, in order to keep pace. Given that Arizona scored 38 last week and the fact that Seattle has allowed a minimum of 23 in every game, I believe that'll happen. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 48 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 122 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. You may have seen the Cowboy offense struggle against Arizona. Everyone expect a bit of a drop-off from Prescott to Dalton, but the Dallas offense dropped off a cliff. The reality is that Dalton isn't as bad as he looked. His team surely didn't help him. However, he's also not going to immediatley play the way that Prescott was, as he was playing at an elite level. With the offense having struggled so badly and the offensive line in shambles, I expect a more conservative approach then normal for this big divisional battle. By that, I mean lots of running plays and very short passes. Washington will be bringing pressure and Dalton was vulnerable to that against Arizona. Remember, the NFC East is still there for the taking. Yes, the Dallas secondary has proven vulnerable. However, Washington ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of passing yards, 30th in passing yards per attempt. In other words, Washington isn't built to take advantage of the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, the Cowboys haven't been too good at stopping the run either. However, that is an area which the Football Team will try and exploit. I expect them to employ a heavy dose of the run. Washington comes off a 20-19 game, the fifth game in a row it scored 20 or fewer points. With both teams employing a heavy dose of the run, expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-24-20 | UNLV v. San Diego State UNDER 51 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-24-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern -10.5 | Top | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. |
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10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida -19.5 | 34-51 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. I won with the Green Wave in their last game, a cover vs. SMU. However, this week, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Knights come off b2b losses, something they aren't used to. They're going to be in an angry mood and they'll be looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. That's going to result in a long day for Tulane's porous defense. Indeed, UCF throws for an average of 439 yards per game, the most passing yards in the entire country. Tulane, meanwhile, allows 307.8 passing yards per game, the 123rd (out of 131) worst mark in the country. UCF won 37-6 the last time that Tulane visited here. While this one figures to have more points, it will result in another one-sided affair. |
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10-24-20 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 68.5 | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nebraska/OSU UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener. I feel that the number is generously high. Yes, the Huskers have a fairly experienced offense. However, that same offense couldn't move the ball against OSU Last year's game between these teams saw the Buckeyes win 48-7. That was at Nebraska, a game which had been highly anticipated as a possible test for the Big Ten champs. Instead, it marked the third time in four meetings that Nebraska scored 14 or fewer points. The Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground (368 rushing yards) while playing great defense. They'll be looking to employ a similar strategy here. With both teams playing their first game, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. |
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10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -179 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing LOUISVILLE on the money-line. The Cardinals badly need a victory and I believe that the Seminoles are the right opponent for them to get one against. Yes, Louisville has dropped four straight. However, the last three of those came on the road. The Cardinals are finally back home and they'll be facing an FSU team which has really struggled on the road. In two road games, the Seminoles have allowed 94 points, losing by an average score of 47-18. The Noles are now just 2-10 their last 12 road games. While I do like the Cardinals to cover, I absolutely expect the outright victory. Lousville is 8-2 SU the past 10 times it was favored. During that span, FSU is 3-11 SU as an underdog. That includes an 0-3 SU mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. While the Noles won last week, they're just 2-5 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, off a conf. win. The Cards just held ND to 12 points, the same Irish team which dropped 42 on FSU the previous week. Louisville wins. |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida +11 | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USF. Tulsa hasn't played in a few weeks. The extra long layoff may bring some rust. The Bulls haven't been winning but they've continued to fight. They gave Temple everything that the Owls could handle last week. While the Bulls ultimately suffered a 39-37 defeat, they showed a lot. South Florida coach Jeff Scott agreed, noting the following: "I was so proud of our guys and how they played at Temple. We came in 1-3, we're on the road and a 13-point underdog and we had put everything into it all week long, and then before you even look up you're behind 10-0 with eight minutes to go in the first quarter. If you pause that and you let that play at a lot of different places, it's a 45-3 game at the end. But our guys continued to play all game long and even after our three turnovers, which really put us in a bad, bad spot, the same offense that put the ball on the ground three times drove it all the way down the field to give us a chance to tie at the end of the game ..." Scott continued with: "The easy thing to do is say 'Here we go again' and all that, but I haven't really seen that from our guys. They're a good group that made some huge strides Saturday..." While Tulsa seems to have UCF's number, the Golden Hurricane are still just 8-18 overall the past few seasons. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a single point. In fact, all three meetings since 2014 were decided by eight or fewer points, USF winning all three. Grab the generous points. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I won with the Red Wolves last week. However, Appalachian State is in a much different class than Georgia State. The Mountaineers were shut down due to contact tracing for awhile but they're back and good to go. Playing their first conference game, doing so on National TV and in front of some (2100 tickets allowed) fans, they're going to be absolutely fired up to return to the field. Indeed, they'll be looking to make a statement that just because they haven't been playing, they're not to be forgotten about. While they did manage the win last week, the Red Wolves defense was dismal. The Mountaineers will absolutely put up a big number. While the Red Wolves may be able to trade points for awhile, ultimately they won't be able to keep up. Note that the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) when off a bye. Also, note that App. State won last year's game 35-9 and that was at Arkansas State. Expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. Prescott was playing at a very high level. His injury does hurt the Cowboys. That said, the Cowboy offense will still be good with Dalton running the show. The veteran is very capable and has much to work with. Remember, if Prescott was playing, the Cowboys would have been laying points. So, the injury has been worked into the line. Yes, the Murray/Hopkins combo will present some problems. However, I'm of the opinion that the Dallas defense is a bit better than most would have you believe. I like the way that the Cowboys took care of business against the Giants last game and I expect them to dig deep and find a way to earn another "W" tonight. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 179 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room. |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +148 | 16-24 | Win | 148 | 155 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing SF on the ML. While they've certainly had to deal with their share of adversity, I expect the defending NFC Champs to be at their best on Sunday night. While it was an otherwise ugly effort, the 49ers got their running game going in last week's loss to Miami. Averaging 6.9 yards per carry, the 49ers racked up 131 yards on the ground. The return of Mostert was key. That'll serve them well against a Rams team which, prior to the Washington game, has had serious issues stopping the run. The 49ers should have the edge in the kicking department, which could be key in what figures to be a close one. Rookie Sloman has struggled and his confidence appears shaken. Remember, the 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year. They're gradually getting their pieces back together. With a number of difficult games on deck, they know they need to bounce back here. While they're back in California, its worth noting that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. In the previous instance, when they were playing the second of b2b road games, they lost. I say the 49ers bounce back |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 148 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. |