Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their ‘home’ ballpark in Florida, and 9.43 hits per game. Both numbers are #1 in the American League. The Red Sox are averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road, #7 in MLB away from home. Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has a good reputation and good numbers after 7 starts, like his 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. But only one of his seven starts has been in this ballpark! And the Red Sox Bogaerts, Chavis, Martinez and Plawecki are hitting .400, .333, .308 and .400 against him. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez should just put a leash around Eduardo Rodriguez and take him home as a pet: 5-for-14 (.357) with 3 home runs. |
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05-18-21 | Mets v. Braves -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although Undecided can really come through sometimes, for the Mets tonight he or she will have to overcome the absence of Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo from the lineup and although nothing has been said about him yet, it’s hard to believe that Kevin Pillar will be able to play after getting hit by a fastball in a bad, bloody spot last night. Mets thought that new ownership was their key to preventing injuries, a very Metsie way to be thinking. It isn’t. If they were the Padres, who played without four regulars in their lineup over the weekend, then they would sweep this series with outstanding pitching after overcoming the injuries to win 3-1 last night. But they are the Mets. Their pitching staff was already hit with injuries to Degrom and Syndergaard, who are on on the Injured list. Taijuan Walker seems set to join them after walking off the mound in the fourth inning of a 0-0 game last night, in which they burned possible-but-not-now spot starter Sean Reid-Foley for 3 hitless innings after Walker left. Braves lefthander Tucker Davidson is no sure thing but… |
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05-18-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day Oh, it would so easy to believe that the Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani — allowed to walk in free agency by Cincinnati after five seasons with the Reds — would come back to Great American Ballpark with an “I’ll show you SOBs what you’re missing!” kind of performance and shut down his former teammates with a vengeance. DeSclafani’s first eight starts with the Giants have produced All-Star quality numbers: 2.14 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 41-11 K-BB in 46 1/3 innings. But he was never a dominant pitcher in this ballpark, in part because he isn’t as effective against left-handed hitters, and also because GAP is kind to left-handed hitters. The lefty batters on the Reds are currently hitting .273 (#3 in the category) with a .818 OPS (#2). They’ve hit 28 home runs in 587 at-bats, which is third most total homers by lefties. (For favorable comparison, Arizona and these Giants have 30 homers apiece by lefthanded batters, in 613 and 893 at-bats by them.) We can’t, with good conscience, accept Luis Castillo as a side play against DeSclafani. He’s been too horrible (7.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), including on April 13 in San Francisco when, staked to a 4-0 first-inning lead, he gave up two home runs in the bottom of the first to lefties Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford to make it 4-4 with eight innings still to play! But we can combine the potential power of DeSclafani and Castillo into an attack on the Total |
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05-17-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Rockies have played only 16 road games, fewest in what you call your Major League Baseball. They’re already 9.5 games out of first place in the NL West with the worst record in the National League, so having the most road games remaining means more misery following a 2-14 record in their first 16 road games. Away from Coors Field, they are hitting .224, which is actually not the worst road average in MLB. It’s #19. But their 9 home runs on the road is far and ‘away’ the fewest in that category, way behind the next-fewest, Detroit (17), who’s played three more road games. Yu Darvish has ace-like numbers after 8 starts” 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. He went 4 of the 7 innings vs. Colorado last week in one of their double-header games, allowing just 2 hits and 1 run. Since a lousy opening day start, here’s how many runs Darvish has allowed before giving way to the NL’s best bullpen: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0. Jon Gray started that game against Darvish last week and gave up only 3 hits in 5 2/3 innings. He has a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. The Padres are still missing 4/8ths of their regular batting order not counting the pitcher, although you wouldn’t have noticed by the way the Cardinals pitchers flopped their way around the Petco mound over the weekend. |
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05-17-21 | White Sox -100 v. Twins | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Normally, we’d pass on this match-up after the White Sox rocked JA Happ five days ago in Chicago. The reason? On a six-day turnaround the other day — an in plenty of situations past in quick re-hooks involving other teams and other starters — lefty Mike Minor of the Royals made a quick improvement to help beat Chicago after they’d pounded him in his prior start. But the Royals were +175 in that game. Tonight the Twins — still with the worst record in Major League Baseball — are near even-money. That seems to be worth the target-against effort when the White Sox hit lefties as well as they do: MLB-highs .293 batting average and .853 OPS. They average 7.9 runs when the opponent starts a lefty. They got 9 runs and 9 hits in 3 1/3 innings against Happ last week in a 13-8 win. White Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel didn’t exactly distinguish himself with the big lead, but like we said yesterday before it played out in the ninth inning for an Oakland win against the Twins, the Minnesota bullpen is always in position to be your friend when you’re on the other side. |
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05-17-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 101 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are still averaging a MLB-high 6.88 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. Say, if they hit their average, they’ll provide 86% of this total! They can’t score 6.88 exactly, but we’ll settle for 6 or 7. They return home after sparing veteran righty Sonny Gray the agony of pitching in Coors Field, where they burned through the entire lousy bullpen to salvage a split of their four-game series. Gray went 4 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing 1 run. But 7 hits! And 4 1/3 innings is not enough with a bullpen like Cincinnati’s, whose ERA is 5.08. Gray’s WHIP of 1.46 hasn’t been this high since 2018 when he was struggling with the Yankees. |
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05-16-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We can’t seem to stay away from this series. After winning two of the three overall selections, we’ll try to make it three outta four with ace Shane Bieber on the mound for the visiting Indians. Once again, we point out that these two teams are averaging the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. Hard to score a lot of runs with so few hits! Therefore, the Mariners wouldn’t figure to do any better than their measly average against a guy like Bieber, who enters with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, nice and angried up following two outings in which he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings to the Royals and White Sox each time. The world is divided into two types of people: those who think Bieber is washed up, injured, finished after those two outings, and those who think he’s due for 7 innings of 3-hit, shutout ball with 13 strikeouts and 1 BB, followed by the best pen in MLB. |
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05-16-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Reds’ Jeff Hoffman lasted five seasons with the Rockies. Although he didn’t really distinguish himself, the fact that they kept him around from 2016 through 2020 suggests that they thought he could pitch well enough in Coors Field to represent them. Except, that wasn’t the case! His home ERA last year was 13.11. His home ERA in 2019 was 6.33. His home ERA in 2018 was 10.13. His home ERA in 2017 was 7.45. So why, why, why did they keep him around? Must have been a good ‘clubhouse guy,’ who knows? Therefore, we won’t expect a triumphant return. The bullpen behind him is not good. Neither is the bullpen behind Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies, who had bad starts in three of his last four and against whom the Reds he’s faced are 8-for-18 with 10 RBI, 1-3 K-BB. |
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05-16-21 | Braves +107 v. Brewers | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers lost for the 8th time in their last 11 games yesterday (-$640), and they are on the verge of a sweep by Atlanta. Huscar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta rotation (+$275, 2.29 ERA in seven starts) and the Brewers are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on offense. Freddy Peralta has been a mixed bag so far (4.09 ERA) and Atlanta has averaged close to 5.0 runs per game against righties. Easy call on the visitor vs. a slumping home team in today's series finale. |
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05-16-21 | A's +105 v. Twins | Top | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day A’s righthander Chris Bassitt did right for us in Boston earlier in the week when he pitched 7 innings of 3-hit, 2-run, 10-0 K-BB ball in victory. So we’ll go back-to-back Bassitt today. Neither Kenta Maeda nor the Twins have done right for many people so far in the 2021 season, with Minnesota living in Detroit-ville among American League Central teams, having won a mere .351 percent of their games, fewest wins in Major League Baseball (13). Last-place vs. first, and last is favored. Maeda has a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Last year those numbers were 2.70 and 0.75, so this season’s numbers are almost doubled! In the event that Maeda rediscovers his old form, there is always the Minnesota bullpen to account for, inventing ways to lose in late innings. |
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05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays +100 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marcus Stroman to avoid being swept in Tampa. Sounds good, on the surface. But Stroman is discovering what it’s like to live life in Metsie-like existence, not getting run support when pitching well and not pitching well when getting run support. The Mets entered this ballpark, located in Yankee territory, on a seven game winning streak that had coincided with the firing of their two batting coaches. So, everyone figured that must have been the reason why they weren’t doing as well as expected. But the real reason is that great expectations and the Mets are usually mutually exclusive. The logical conclusion to having swept Arizona and Baltimore at Citi Field is to get swept on the road by the Rays by decent lefty Josh Fleming and the usual good bullpen brigade. |
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05-16-21 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Jose Quintana’s last start, 4 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball vs. the Dodgers in a 2-1 Angels win, could be interpreted as a sign that he’s back to being the good Jose Quintana. We’ll figure it as having been the calm before the storm. He walked 5 in those 4 innings and was lucky to get out alive. So seven days later, a lefty that’s barely hanging on with a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, throws in Fenway Park against a lineup with the third highest Batting Average vs. lefties in what you call your Major League Baseball, .283. Meanwhile, the Angels’ Phil Gosselin, Juan Lagares, Mike Trout have averages of .400, .625 and .400 against Nathan Eovaldi. |
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05-15-21 | Indians v. Mariners -103 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield has been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a bad one against a Rangers’ lineup that has hit lefties well this season. The Indians have not hit lefties well (.188 team Batting Average vs. left-handed pitchers) and they’ve never faced Sheffield at the Major League level. In his home ballpark, Sheffield has been much more effective. Opposing hitters have a .218 BA against him here, compared to .352 on the road. Indians’ starter Tristan McKenzie is doing okay but the team has lost four of his six starts and he has walked 8 batters in the last two, which totaled only 7 innings. |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals +121 v. Padres | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Padres are missing regulars Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer from their lineup. They must have worked their rosary beads before last night’s 5-4 win vs. St. Louis because without those bats in the lineup, they got three walks and a hit batter in the third inning to get 2 of their eventual 5 runs, which were scored with only 4 total hits. Last night’s Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo should be sent to the minors forever and subjected to repeated taunting for not taking advantage of the situation and just throwing the ball over the plate, daring the subs in a lineup that had been scoring only 4.08 runs per game with all those currently absent guys in it to hit the damn ball. The rest of the Cardinals’ pitchers who were called upon last night should be docked a week’s pay for contributing to the team total of 12 walks allowed. Unbelievable, really. But tonight’s starter, Adam Wainwright, is a crafty old pro who probably won’t make the same mistakes when the prevailing situation is so much in favor of the Cardinals. The Padres’ Chris Paddack is no slouch but he has stagnated from his 2019 rookie season when he had a 0.98 WHIP. The club is 5-8 in his starts since the beginning of 2020 and his ERA/WHIP right now are 4.78/1.41. |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-13 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units With a 5:40 pm, Pacific Time start there figures to be some shadowy things going on in the middle to later innings at Petco Park, which is already a pitcher’s ballpark and should be more so this evening because those danged shadows do nothing good for hitters. Chris Paddack is a fine, young pitcher backed by the National League’s stingiest bullpen. The Padres will be without four regulars in the lineup, due to the new national fear. Although last night’s game went Over the Total (5-4) despite the absences of Fernando Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar, the Cardinals pitching staff chose last night to walk 12 batters. The Padres got only 4 hits. |
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05-15-21 | Phillies -136 v. Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies coasted to an easy 5-1 victory in last night's series opener, winning for the 8th time in their last 11 (+$630). Tonight they face a less less impressive left-hander (Anthony Kay 9.82 ERA in two outings) with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound (3.59 ERA in eight starts). The Phillies are available at a very reasonable price and are poised to take 1st place in the NL East. Look for the visitor to make it two in a row. |
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05-15-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are making a human sacrifice out of veteran lefty Mike Minor. They send him out there against the team that has been on a crusade of destruction against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season only 6 days after he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against them in Kansas City in a 9-3 loss. Minor’s current ERA/WHIP are 5.75/1.31. Sure, Chicago starter Carlos Rodon is enjoying a resurgent season with a 5-0 record, 0.58 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in five starts, most recently 6 innings of shutout ball vs. these Royals. But — but-but-but — those numbers are unsustainable and even if he has another blanking in him, this is a situation where you’re not gonna be surprised if the White Sox exceed the Total on their own because they average 8.7 runs per game when the opponent starts a lefty. |
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05-14-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 3-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We came for the Side and Total last night, too much. We’ll stay, but for only the Total tonight after the two least-hitting MLB offenses combined for only 8 hits, 6 runs in Thursday’s Under. In recent seasons, the Indians’ organization has said, ‘No big contract for you!’ to Trevor Bauer, and ‘Same to you!’ to Mike Clevinger. Both had the word “ace” in front of their names. But the franchise pretty much knew what was waiting in the wings with last night’s starter, Zach (I Shall Pitch 8 Innings of Two-Hit Ball for the Under) Plesac and tonight’s, Aaron Civale. A mystery to the Mariners, who average the fewest hits per game against pitchers they’ve seen before, Civale’s current ERA and WHIP are 2.91 and 1.04. Chris isn’t Flexen his muscles much so far for Seattle (3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but as noted yesterday, the offenses average about 6.5 hits per game each. |
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05-14-21 | Reds v. Rockies -110 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units See how nicely we link one selection into the next? Veteran lefty Wade Miley of the Reds is the guy who threw the no-hitter against the Indians in his last start, the day after the Cleveland had swept the four games at Kansas City. His curveball and slider were moving all over the place that night. They have to. His fastball has topped the radar gun at only 89.5 mph this season. But when a pitcher is throwing in Coors Field, the very different atmospheric conditions prevent the ball from breaking as much as it normally would. Miley normally lasts 5 innings in his starts, 6 innings tops. But he went the full 9 against Cleveland, throwing 114 pitches. With a lesser breaking ball and sub-par fastball, he’ll be lucky to last 3 innings tonight. German Marquez’s overall numbers do not impress. But three bad starts (mixed with five good to “just fine” outings) have played a big part in creating the 5.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP that we feel are enroute to being lowered. |
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05-14-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units You better believe we’re going right back to Coors Field on the Over side with this match-up after they scored 21 runs for us last night. Wade Miley is coming off a no-hitter. When a journeyman like Miley pitches a no-hitter, how can you not expect him to give up 6 runs in less than 5 innings next time out? Miley relies on curves and sliders that move a lot. In the Coors Field air, pitchers don’t get the kind of movement they need on those pitches. That’s why Coors Field scores are so high, and that’s why Miley, who has pitched for about 29 major league teams, more than likely will never be extended a contract by the Rockies. Meanwhile, German Marquez has been a disappointment with a 5.65 ERA and the Reds can hit. |
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05-14-21 | A's v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Matt Shoemaker does great against Detroit, the run-scoring team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Against most other teams, not so good. The former Angel meets a familiar foe tonight as the A’s hit town hot off a sweep in Fenway Park. Bang-zoom, we say. He’s already lost 7-0 and 8-6 games to Oakland and Seattle, two of the teams who chased him out of the AL West so that Minnesota would throw him a bone. Aren’t the A’s happy to meet up with him tonight as they have a nice, fat .905 OPS against Shoemaker from 98 at-bats? After Shoemaker, the Twins bullpen has guys ready to be as detrimental to their team as Shoemaker. Meanwhile, Oakland’s Frankie Montas: 5.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. This is on the heels of a 2020 season in which those numbers were 5.60, 1.51. We’re on a track here, Frankie, and it’s a less than ordinary one. |
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05-14-21 | Cubs -128 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day This is similar to Cleveland’s four-game sweep of Kansas City recently that was followed the next day by a shutout, no-hitter loss at Cincinnati. Tonight we have the Tigers hosting the Cubs after they, too, swept their AL Central division rival, Kansas City, in a three-game series completed yesterday. The Tigers are now thinking who the heck they are, forgetting that they actually are 13-24 with the worst run differential in MLB, -64. While sweeping the poor Royals, current losers of 11 straight, the Detroit bullpen managed several miraculous escapes from self-inflicted damage, living up to its MLB worst ERA (6.55) and WHIP (1.75). Tonight they ask a lefty with a 1-9 career W/L record, and a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after five starts this season, to hold down the Cubs before the bullpen comes in and inevitably gives up runs. Tarik Skubal has appeared in a total of seven games for the Tigers this season and they have lost all seven. The Cubs are only 4-11 on the road but this is the first time they play a road game against a last-place team with a -64 run differential, right? Right. |
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05-13-21 | Indians v. Mariners +109 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A double-shot of love, or like, or just gut-feel on tonight’s match-up between the Indians and Mariners in Seattle for several reasons. The Mariners average the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. They’re only getting 6.46 hits per game. Hard to score a lot of runs getting less than 7 hits per game. But the Indians are right behind them, or ahead of them, or however you want to look at it, #29 in hits per game at 6.82. Tonight is the MLB debut of Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert. He was their #1 draft choice in 2018 and has zipped through the minor leagues with a 5.5 to 1 K-BB ratio and ERA barely above 2.00. He threw 2 innings against the Angels in a March exhibition game and struck out Mike Trout and three others. He would have been with the team from opening day but the Mariners could save money on contracts by waiting until now to bring in some rookies. Who can blame them? It’s their team, their money. The team president got fired for admitting as much, which is one of the problems with the world today. These ballplayers make enough money. The team that pays it should be able to do what it wants to do, say what it wants to say about it. Anyway, Zach Plesac is making the Indians look smart for not wanting to pay the big money to that whiny righthander guy on the Dodgers and the other righty who’s injured on the Padres. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 31-7 K-BB, the Mariners have never faced him, and the best bullpen around for after he’s done. |
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05-13-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Mariners seem to have picked a good spot for the Major League debut of Logan Gilbert, their #1 pick in the 2018 draft. He has wowed ‘em in the minors following the requisite Tommy John surgery, and made a quickie appearance in spring training fanning four Angels in two innings. Did they start him in Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers? Of course not! They’re starting him against a lighter-hitting team in their own, larger, pitcher-friendly ballpark. Where they’ll have trouble separating on the scoreboard because they don’t hit much and Zach Plesac — who they’ve never faced — is pitching pretty well for the Indians. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Reds or White Sox in his last two starts, a 3-0 loss and 5-0 win. |
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05-13-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Rockies played a doubleheader yesterday against an opponent with the National League’s best bullpen, who started All-Star and Cy Young-quality guys Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Also, the Padres had key hitters out because of the ol’ Virus Thing. It was a depleted lineup, with Fernando Tatis the most noteworthy absence. Tonight, after working through the bullpen in a doubleheader, they ask Chi-Chi Gonzalez to give them some innings against a heavier hitting lineup averaging 5.24 runs per game. The Reds are averaging only 3.59 runs per game on the road but ah, they haven’t played a game in Coors Field yet, or faced Chi-Chi, against whom opposing hitters often Cha-Cha around the basepaths. Their own starter, Luis Castillo, hasn’t been pitching like the guy everyone knew the last two seasons. He has a 1.63 WHIP and 6.42 ERA. Usually, pitching in Coors Field isn’t going to help a guy who’s going like that. Both of these bullpen can take a 7-0 lead and turn it into a 7-6 game faster than you can say, ‘Rob Dibble!’ |
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05-13-21 | Twins v. White Sox -127 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox drubbed the fading Twins again last night, and they will send another effective pitcher in today's series finale. Lance Lynn has a stellar 1.52 ERA in five starts this year, and he should fare well against a Minnesota team that is only 7-14 (-$1420) in day games. Chicago is on top in the AL Central and riding a five game winning streak. Great price on the hot road team today at Guaranteed Rate Field. |
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05-13-21 | Cardinals +129 v. Brewers | 2-0 | Win | 129 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Good things tend to happen when Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals. We keep saying he’ll be a -160 or greater pitcher as a matter of routine, and yet here is as underdog pitching for the team with the second best record in MLB at the moment. A bit counterintuitive on the part of ‘The Man’ to make a team 7-0 with this pitcher starting, with baseball’s second-best record and better overall hitting than the home team, the underdog. Flaherty has a 2.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 42-11 K-BB in 41 1/3 IP. Corbin Burnes’ numbers are better. But he hasn’t started since April 26 and the Brewers are only 2-3 when he starts because, as we said, they don’t hit as well as the Cardinals. They’ve lost 8-0, 3-1 and 2-0 games started by Burnes, the 3-1 loss at St. Louis when he was opposed by Adam Wainwright. |
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05-10-21 | Rangers +133 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick — what Major League Baseball team has been the most profitable on a flat-bet, game-by-game basis this season? If you guessed the Texas Rangers, then you guessed correctly. You’ll recall, of course, that the Rangers were pretty much death to backers in 2020 with MLB’s second-worst Won-Loss record and the absolute worst Run Differential of -88, scoring an average of only 3.73 runs per game. Because so many people expect last season to be duplicated the next, you instead have the Rangers at 18-18, only 3 games out of first place in the AL West, reaping rewards for their backers via generous underdog odds with help from an offense generating 4.39 runs per game, more than a half-run more than last year. It’s been a while since anybody on the Giants has faced Kyle Gibson. Those who have combine for a mere .208 On-Base Percentage against him, earned when he wasn’t pitching as well as he has been lately: six straight quality starts totaling 33 IP, with only 3 ER allowed in that span. Lefty Alex Wood has given the Giants four fine starts, t’is true. But the Rangers have found ways to be 12-4 when the other side starts a lefty and in limited exposure to Wood (21 at-bats) they have 9 hits including 3 doubles and a homer. |
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05-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Red Sox have MLB’s #1 On-Base plus Slugging Percentage (a stat known as “OPS”). It’s .778, for those of you scoring at home. (Dodgers are #2 at .748.) Their On-Base percentage against tonight’s Orioles’ starter, Jorge Lopez, is .364. Their Slugging Percentage against him is .665. Add those two up for a Red Sox OPS of 1.029 against Lopez, considerably higher than their current MLB-best number, and it seems like Lopez can be pinata-like for the visiting bats. Which is a good thing for Boston because their starter, Martin Perez, has yet to earn a W in six starts and the Orioles’ On-Base and Slugging Percentages against him are .419 and .672, which adds up to a higher OPS than Boston vs. Lopez: 1.092. Yay-hoo. |
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05-09-21 | Phillies -107 v. Braves | 1-6 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Phillies posted a 12-2 victory on Friday before the Braves rallied for four runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win on Saturday. Philadelphia is 5-3 against Atlanta this season. Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta right-hander Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36). Nola has faced the Braves once this season. The right-hander received a no-decision after allowing two runs on six hits and six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings on April 1. He has made 21 career starts against Atlanta, going 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA. |
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05-09-21 | Padres -152 v. Giants | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Padres bullpen days are as good as most of the best teams’ bullpen days. Lefty Ryan Weathers is a candidate and he could go anywhere from 3 to 5 2/3 innings based on recent appearances. Starter Dinelson Lamet is another possibility. He got hurt recently but returned to pitch two relief innings earlier in the week. Behind these two shorties is a bullpen with a National League-low 2.80 ERA, and third-lowest WHIP of 1.12. Giants’ 35-year-old Johnny Cueto hasn’t pitched for real in 3.5 weeks after suffering an in-game (sixth inning) lat strain while he was pitching very well against the Reds. Cueto started three games against the Padres last season and San Diego scored 6, 6, 7 runs in them. The Giants won one of them, but in order to do it they had to overcome the 4 runs that Cueto allowed in 3 2/3 innings. |
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05-09-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 6 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The wind is blowing in from left field at Wrigley Field today. The Man sees that and gets cute with a low Total, thinking, ‘Hey, nobody will hit any home runs.’ But he apparently has forgotten that Kyle Hendricks is a low-ball pitcher and doesn’t give up many home runs anyway, and that the Pirates can just put the bat on the ball in the freezing cold and bang out some ground ball hits, with a few errors on both sides, combined with the Cubs averaging more than 7 runs per game when the other side starts a lefthander. The Pirates’ lefthander Tyler Williams gave up 10 hits to the Cubs in Pittsburgh on Apr. 8 and five Cubbies are hitting between .300 and .750 against him. |
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05-09-21 | Rockies v. Cardinals -145 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are surging (8-2, +$605 last 10 days) as they go for a sweep in today's series finale. The Rockies are wallowing in last place with a dreadful 8-17 record vs. right-handers (-$770), and starter German Marquez has not had any success so far in 2021 (6.21 ERA in his seven outings so far). Veteran Adam Wainwright is available at a reasonable price, so stick with the hot home team today at Busch Stadium. |
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05-09-21 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 7.5 | 9-3 | Win | 104 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As noted yesterday, and before that, the White Sox have made a habit of devouring left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. That Royals rookie was fresh meat on their table last night, worth 8 runs in the first inning. Yowser. Mike Minor is certainly a much more experienced, crafty lefthander than young Daniel Lynch, who may never recover from last night’s shelling. But after going 12-8 and 14-10 in 2018 and 2019 for Texas, Minor was 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA for them last season before being traded to Oakland, where he was a spot reliever. So far he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.32 ERA for the Royals after six starts. Yawn. He exits three starts against the light-hitting Tigers, Pirates, Indians and his new team has now lost seven straight. But after being shut out twice in a row, then getting only 1 run last night, the Royals are due for better against Lucas Giolito, whose no-hitter form from last season gets farther in the rear-view. Seven different Royals have homered 8 times against Giolito in 132 at-bats. |
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05-09-21 | Brewers v. Marlins -132 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -132 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Marlins have a +21 Run Differential but are in fourth place in the NL East. The other four teams in the division have negative run differentials. What’s up with that? Danged if we know. But we do know that Sandy Alcantara, their starter, has a 2.95 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42-12 K-BB in 42 2/3 innings and that he beat the Brewers 6-2 with 7 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball on Apr. 28 in Milwaukee. Like the Giants with Cueto below, Milwaukee is bringing a relatively old guy, Brett Anderson, off the injured list. He lasted 1/3 of an inning against the Cubs on April 24 before straining his hamstring. 60-year-olds could probably last longer out there without injuring themselves than some of these 30-something MLB pitchers. The Brewers had lost 6 in a row before yesterday’s win here, when the 6 runs they got matched their highest single-game output since May 1. They haven’t scored more than 6 in a game since Moby Dick was a minnow (actually, since beating the Pirates 7-1 on April 17). The fine Milwaukee bullpen has a match in Miami’s, which owns a NL-best 1.01 WHIP. |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Off six innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball vs. the offensively suspect Brewers, Vince Velasquez seems destined for one of his 4-inning stints of giving up 6 hits and 4 runs. He’s allowed 5 home runs in his last 3 starts. The Braves can’t hit lefties very well but unless Velasquez has learned to throw with his left arm within the last five days, he’ll be throwing right-handed to an Atlanta lineup where Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Pablo Sandoval and Dansby Swanson are all hitting between .300 and .345 against him. Although Atlanta’s Ian Anderson recently duplicated his playoff-game whiz start against the Dodgers when he 1-hit the Cubs over 7 innings, he’s allowed 3 or 4 runs in three of his five starts, including to these Phillies on April 10 (5 hits, 4 runs, 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings). Neither bullpen sports a crack brigade of volunteer or professional firemen. |
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05-08-21 | White Sox -155 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Royals’ rookie lefthander Daniel Lynch had a very promising Major League debut earlier this week vs. Cleveland. But promising doesn’t butter the biscuit. He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowed 4 hits and 3 runs. He walked 4 and struck out 3. Cleveland struggles to hit .200 against left-handed pitching. Today he gets thrown to the wolves against a White Sox lineup that has devoured left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season and is hitting .300 against it this season. The Royals began the week in first place. They had big dreams. Now they’ve lost six in a row to three different teams in their division who aren’t last-place Detroit. They haven’t scored a run in two games and are asking a rookie to hold down this lineup in what has been a bad match-up for many a lefthander, when Lance Lynn (innings-eating stalwart with a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is pitching against them. Seems like an unreasonable request. Lynn pitched a complete-game shutout against KC on April 8. |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Astros -141 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -141 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day Uh-oh! Steven Matz may be back. The guy who showed up in Matz’ uniform for his first four starts as a member of the Blue Jays looked a lot better than the guy who pitched for the Mets the last few seasons. The new guy |
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05-08-21 | Pirates +166 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are riding a four game win streak at the moment, but they could be vulnerable to the underdog Pirates today. Pittsburgh has a profitable record in day games away from PNC Park (+$575) and Trevor Williams has pitched poorly for Chicago thus far (6.00 ERA his six outings). The Cubs are only 9-15 vs. righties in 2021 (-$565, 3.7 runs per game) so take a shot with the visiting underdog this afternoon. |
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05-07-21 | Reds +136 v. Indians | 3-0 | Win | 136 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The unwritten rule in baseball says that after a team concludes a four-game road sweep of a division rival, to vault into sole possession of first place over that rival in their division, you go against it as it changes venues for the next game, especially when it’s an Interleague game. Never seen that rule? Well, we said it’s unwritten. But now we just wrote it. It’s as close as it gets to a “letdown” theory for baseball, something that often gets applied in football and basketball. In only 29 at-bats against him, Reds batters have hit 5 home runs against Indians starter Zach Plesac. Wade Miley of the Reds is no prize, but sometimes ya’ gotta bite the bullet and go with your gut. |
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05-07-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The only team that Minnesota’s long, black-bearded mediocrity, Matt Shoemaker, pitches well against is the Tigers. He’s from the Detroit area. He must be angry at them for not drafting him. He went 6 innings against them at Detroit on April 5, giving up only 3 hits and 1 run. They’re 7-for-58 against him lifetime. But the Twins have lost his 5 starts since, and Shoemaker’s ERA and WHIP are 7.83 and 1.57. Even if he pitches his usual gem, note the score of his April 5 win vs. the Tigers: 15-6. These bullpens are horrible. Minnesota’s can’t strike anybody out and the closer they coveted, Alex Colome, has a 6.17 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Way to go, buddy. Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost all six games in which Tarik Skubal has appeared. His starts have not lasted longer than 5 innings and have mostly been shorter than that. HIs ERA and WHIP are 6.14 and 1.68, and the Tigers’ bullpen that figures to be used for at least half the game has the MLB-high ERA and WHIPs of 6.61 and 1.72. |
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05-07-21 | Diamondbacks +118 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Mets scored 1, 7, 4 runs in the three games after their two hitting coaches were fired. That works out to 4 runs per game, better than the 3.3 or so they were averaging prior. But, of course, that sample is short, and it’s also less than the D-Backs’ average of 4.97 runs per game, 4.5 on the road. All things being equal — which they hardly ever are but let’s ignore that — the Mets still have a ways to go before they can be counted upon to flip-flop and outscore people on a regular basis when favored to do so starting a lefthander like David Peterson. With less than a full season of MLB experience under his belt, Peterson has mastered the Phillies. But tonight’s opposing lineup isn’t the Phillies and is chewing up lefties with MLB’s highest Slugging Percentage and OPS: .511 and .858 in that category. Arizona’s 14 home runs against left-handed pitchers in only 231 at-bats is more than a whole bunch of teams have against lefties in considerably more at-bats. |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals -104 | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves insist on putting Drew Smyly out there. Since signing him for one year at $1 million, they are 0-4 in Smyly’s starts that have totaled 19 innings, and |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -125 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day As duly noted on this page five days ago, life generally yields better results to people when they’re not waking up in parked cars at 5 am. For lefthanded starter Danny Duffy of the Royals, currently tied for first place with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central, this change has resulted in a 4-1 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with 34-9 K-BB. He got it all started with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Cleveland in KC’s 3-0 win on April 5. The Indians are hitting only .198 vs. left-handed pitching and offer up Tristan McKenzie on getaway day of a series they lead 3-0. So, the Royals are playing to avoid being swept in addition to getting a one-game lead on the Indians. McKenzie’s control, or lack of it, suggests that he ain’t up to the task: 18 walks in 18 2/3 innings. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league. |
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05-06-21 | Mets v. Cardinals +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals remain atop the NL Central after yesterday's doubleheader split. They have won 9 of their last 12 (+$615) while averaging almost 5.0 runs per game at the plate. The Mets can't hit, averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and they'll face a capable right-hander in John Ganr, who checks in with a 2.16 ERA in his five outings. We get a terrific price on a hot home team, as they look to make it 3 out of 4 in this series. |
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05-06-21 | Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getaway day in Philadelphia and the two starters have good control to stay ahead of the hitters by getting the calls from the home plate umpire. Brandon Woodruff is going longer than ever so far this season — 6 innings in each of his last four starts, 7 innings before that. He has walked only 9 in 35 innings and has a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, plus a good bullpen behind him. Zach Wheeler has pitched 8 innings of 1-hit ball, then 7 innings, in his last two starts. Both offenses are in the bottom third of MLB in Hits per Run. Strand those few baserunners you put on, guys! |
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05-05-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This isn’t Koufax-Marichal or Bieber-Cole. It’s Hyeon-Jong Yang in his Major League starting debut for Texas, against Lewis ‘Don’t Call Me Jim’ Thorpe. Yang spent 14 years in Korean baseball so he’s no kid, but still. Meanwhile, Thorpe is a lefty and the Rangers actually average about 7.0 runs per games when the other side starts a southpaw. That includes last night, when they got only 1 run in 5 1/3 innings against lefty JA Happ. But Happ had been pitching well and even if Yang does likewise, this Twins bullpen is a mess. They’re afraid to put Alex Colome in games now, with good reason. But they don’t have great options whoever they turn to. Thorpe’s most recent start lasted 4 innings and although he allowed only 2 runs in 4 innings, the Twins’ bullpen came in and did its usual lousy job in a 10-3 loss. |
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05-05-21 | Indians v. Royals +145 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are sizable underdogs after losing the first two games of this series, squaring off against Cleveland ace Shane Bieber. But KC is averaging 5.5 runs per game vs. righthanders (+$310), and they have a capable arm in Brady Singer, who checks in with a 3.09 ERA in his five appearances this year. The Indians average just 3.8 runs per game vs. righties, so we'll look for the Royals to get on track at Kaufman Stadium. |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals +120 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not only did Braves’ righthander Huascar Ynoa pitch 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball against the Nationals last night, but he also hit a grand slam in their 6-1 win. That’s ridiculous. Today the Braves throw a lefty at the Nats, who sport the best team batting average against southpaws (.305) and the second best OPS (.869). Max Fried has been no ordinary lefty but he was much less |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit The Nationals beat Max Fried 10-4 last season. They beat him 7-6 about a month ago, getting 8 hits and 5 runs in 2 innings against him. Fried followed up that start with 4 innings of work against Miami in which he allowed 9 hits and 8 runs in a 14-8 loss. Hey, at least the Braves can hit their way back from deficits if Fried form holds in his first start since then. Atlanta has been horrible against left-handed pitching, but just fine against righties, which is Erick Fedde’s side and Fedde doesn’t seem to have a Hall of Fame tag hung on that arm. The Braves who’ve faced him have partied to a .384 Batting Average and .611 Slugging Percentage. |
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05-05-21 | Mets v. Cardinals -102 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets fired their two batting coaches, and now Jacob deGrom’s Tuesday start was missed due to a sore lat muscle. Lucky for them yesterday was rained out. But their hitters who aren’t hitting are still facing a stranger, whether it’s Johan Oviedo or Kwang-Hyun Kim. Both are doing just fine so far. Marcus Stroman is fine, too, but the Mets couldn’t support him well enough vs. Philadelphia last time out in a 2-1 loss. Tonight, a lousy hitting team with two days off since they last swung the bats shows up with some rust on them, too. |
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05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have the best record in the AL, after winning last night's series opener. They own an 8-3 record vs. left-handers (+$445) and should make short work of Anthony Kay, who floundered in his only start (10.81 ERA). Cole Irvin has looked sharp in his five starts (3.67 ERA), and he's taking on a Toronto team that is only 2-6 (-$390) in night games on the road. A very reasonable price on the hot home team tonight at the Coliseum. |
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05-04-21 | Rays v. Angels -118 | 8-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ever since the Rays waved bye-bye to Alex Cobb, he has pitched well against them. In 2018 for the Orioles he faced them twice in two weeks, in 4-3 losses. He went 6 and 7 innings, a quality start each time. He faced them twice in 2020 in a 6-3 win and a 2-1 loss. He has allowed only 1 home to them in 62 at-bats. The lineup that supports him in L.A. is better than it was in Baltimore, for sure. Shane McClanahan goes at it in his second appearance of the season after allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in 4 innings home vs. Oakland. The guy who started last night’s game for them, Tyler Glasnow (AL-best 0.87 WHIP), gave them 6 innings of 3-run ball. McClanahan probably won’t do better and the Rays are hitting only .224 as a team. The 7 runs they scored last night was their most in two weeks. |
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05-04-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Former Twins righthander Kyle Gibson has been doing all right for the Rangers in his 2020 short season and so far in 2021. One would think that at first glance, coming back to Minnesota for the first time since they waved bye-bye to the guy would be a great spot for him to continue his resurgence. But this Twins lineup isn’t as bad as the team’s 11-16 record would indicate. They’ve been hitting the ball better lately and most of their struggles have been against left-handed pitching. There is also the matter of Gibson having been owned by Andrelton Simmons and Josh Donaldson, while they were members of other teams. Simmons is 7-for-20 with a double-triple and homer against Gibson, Donaldson even better at 6-for-13 with a double and 3 homers. JA Happ is off two very good outings for the Twins, but against light-hitting Detroit and Cleveland. The Rangers aren’t lighting up opposing pitchers in general but they’re hitting better than those other two offenses and have averaged better than 7 runs per outing in games started by opposing lefties. |
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05-04-21 | White Sox v. Reds -108 | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day As far as starting pitching in this era of Major League Baseball is concerned, Reds’ righthander Jeff Hoffman has had four very passable starts. He’s yet to give up more than 3 runs, and gave up only 1 hit to the Dodgers on April 27. Woulda been nice if he hadn’t walked 5 of them, but they won the game anyway. He is supported by the best-hitting home team in MLB with the Reds averaging 7.73 runs per game in this park, as a well as a Major League best Hits per Run rate of 1.54. The White Sox have been better vs. lefties than righties since the beginning of last season. Dylan Cease has one good start out of five, his most recent. But it came against the Detroit Tigers, the worst-hitting team in MLB. When your best was against the worst, at home, then your worst might come against the best, on the road. |
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05-04-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Although the Tigers are scoring only 2.7 runs per game, this could be a situation where the Red Sox go Over the total on their own. Guys who have faced him have clubbed Detroit starter Michael Fulmer: .500 for Xander Bogaerts, .500 for Marwin Gonzalez. Detroit’s bullpen ERA hasn’t gotten any lower since getting off to a 6.00+ start. It’s currently at 6.51 and Fulmer is no innings eater. He’s 3 or 4 innings, usually. |
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05-03-21 | Orioles v. Mariners -125 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Some may be willing to take a chance on Dean (Chance? Dean?) Kremer as a slight road dog. But his spring training ERA was 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work, with 17 hits and 8 walks (3 home runs). This, when you pitch for the Orioles, earns you a spot on the opening day roster and starts in the month of April. And, another today in May. This, after three more for-real starts in which his ERA is 8.40. The 24 hits (4 home runs) and 6 walks have helped to create a 2.00 WHIP. Perhaps this is why the Mariners have been on the fence with an “Undecided” for so long, because it doesn’t matter who they start? Reports of Eric Swanson are fine with us. He has thrown only 2 innings so far: 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB at Baltimore on April 13. Him, or a reasonable facsimile. |
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05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners +143 | 0-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Professional managers and coaches say it all the time: ‘Your worst performance is often followed by your best.’ Mariners’ lefty Justus Sheffield allowed a career high 12 hits to the Astros in 5 1/3 innings of work last time out. “You’re not going to have all three of your plus pitches every time,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said afterwards. “There were a couple of sliders that just didn’t have that finish to it, that bite. Not quite as sharp as he has been in the past.” Well, in sports, the past is present. We hope. Angels who’ve faced Sheffield are 5-for-26 against him, 1 double and 0 home runs. Dylan Bundy has made five starts for the Angels and has yet to be credited with a win (0-2). That’s not all his fault as his numbers are fine. But the Angels’ bullpen is not. |
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05-02-21 | Royals +200 v. Twins | 4-13 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals remain atop all of MLB with a 16-9 record following yesterday's blowout win, yet they are enormous underdogs in today's rubber match at Target Field. Minnesota continues to flounder, losing 3 of their last 11 (-$815) and they are now only 2-8 (-$1120) in day games at home. Brad Keller has been sub-par in 2021, hence the generous price. But KC is now 11-5 when facing righthanders (+$610), so we like our chances vs. Berrios & Co. |
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05-02-21 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit You have to be a pretty good pitcher for your team to be a -130 favorite in Tampa, who is last year’s AL Champ. Cristian Javier of the Astros is becoming pretty good. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and only 8 hits in those 17 innings. Rich Hill usually gives 5 fine innings and gives way to the bullpen that started it all with the bullpen thing, which got them to the World Series last year. |
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05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nats have won three straight, and are home with ace Max Scherzer on the mound while tied for first place. Big game! What could go wrong? Well, plenty but a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber, as a relatively short favorite compared to where he’s typically been on the odds board, seems like a decent opportunity. Washington is down around Mets-Tigers level near the bottom of the ol’ Runs per Game chart (3.65), but hidden within that number is a Major-League high .312 Batting Average against left-handed pitching. Miami lefty Trevor Rogers has out-dueled Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (impressive!) and Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann (not so impressive!) in his last two starts and has allowed 0 runs in three of his five. That’s nothing to sneeze at during allergy season but all we need is for the Nats to squeeze out one more run in a low-scoring game for us to be 2-0 in it. Scherzer is an ace off a bad outing in a strange ballpark (Toronto’s, in Dunedin, FL) coming home to friendly confines. He helped Washington win a couple of 1-0 games before that. |
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05-01-21 | Cardinals -139 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We keep saying that a) good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts, and b) Jack Flaherty will be a -160 or greater option before long. And yet, he keeps coming back at considerably lesser odds, this evening against a so-so foe. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Flaherty’s starts and he stretched out to 7 innings last time against the Reds, allowing 3 hits and 1 run. His WHIP is 0.95; Pirates who have faced him are hitting just .192 against Flaherty with 0 home runs in 82 at bats. Seems like a bit much to overcome for a home team scoring only 3.8 runs per game and countering with a ho-hum, hangin’ on journeyman Trevor Cahill. Paul Goldschmidt is 3-for-4, Matt Carpenter 6-for-13 against Cahill. Nolan Arenado is 3-for-12 but 2 of the hits were doubles. Cahill’s ERA is 7.11 with a 1.42 WHIP after 19 innings of alternating bad-good starts, most recently good. |
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05-01-21 | Mets v. Phillies -121 | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The anemic Mets offense waster another fine pitching performance last night, losing a 2-1 decision in the series opener. They're averaging just 2.7 runs per game, and have a 1-6 record in night games on the road (-$725 so far). Zack Wheeler has been effective in his five starts for the Phillies, and the team has a 9-4 record here at Citizens Bank (+$590). The cheap price on the home team is hard to resist. |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A couple of struggling righthanders may re-discover their best stuff today. Then again, they may not. Last night’s Cubs/Reds went Over for us 8-6. Today, the Cubs starter enters with a 9.47 ERA and 2.21 WHIP after his first 19 innings as a member of this organization, his third in the last three seasons. Zach Davies has more walks (15) than strikeouts (14) and is pitching to the lineup that averages the most runs per game in its home ballpark, 7.77. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost four of Luis Castillo’s five starts. He allowed more hits than innings pitched in all four losses. His ERA and WHIP of 6.29 and 1.60 are nowhere near his career averages of 3.74 and 1.19. Reds’ bullpen ERA: 5.81 |
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05-01-21 | Royals +126 v. Twins | Top | 11-3 | Win | 126 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Life in a parked car at 5 am is no fun and it pretty much inhibits you from being at your best in several key day-to-day responsibilities. Royals lefthander Danny Duffy seems to have finally figured that out, for the time being, and avoided that kind of existence. Although his 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball against the Tigers six days ago is next to meaningless because it came against a team that can’t do anything vs. lefties, he’d made three quality starts prior to that. With the Royals still in first place in the American League Central despite last night’s 9-1 loss here, he enters with a WHIP of 1.04, ERA of 0.39. Duffy made three straight starts against the Twins in August last season and got better each time. The Twins won all three. Minnesota acquired Matt Shoemaker from the Angels after L.A. could stomach him no more. He is a long, black-bearded mediocrity and the Twins have lost his last three starts 8-6, 7-0 and 6-2. |
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04-30-21 | Rockies +110 v. Diamondbacks | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 7-inning no-hitter thrown by D-Backs’ lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday was a little too good to be believed, especially since it came against the play against team from above that is hitting .139 against left-handed pitching (see how nicely we lead into these things?) Jon Gray recently beat the D-Backs in Coors Field with 6 2/3 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball. They are 4-2 when he starts, both losses to the Dodgers. He brings a 1.09 WHIP, 2.54 ERA into this despite pitching in Coors Field for five of his six starts. |
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04-30-21 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 8 | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Michael Pineda of the Twins got unlucky last time out against the Pirates when the Twins continued their habit of throwing the ball all over the field, everywhere except to where it needed to go. But shortstop Andrelton Simmons is back on the field and their defense probably can’t continue to be that bad. Pineda has a 0.90 WHIP after four starts and Royals who have faced him are a mere 7 for 52 against Pineda. Brady Singer faced the Twins in three straight starts as a rookie. He did all right, especially for a rookie facing the same playoff-making lineup three times in a 10-day span. With that trial by fire under his belt he faces them for the first time in 2021, off 2-0 and 2-1 wins in which he pitched 13 innings and allowed only 5 hits and 1 run. |
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04-30-21 | Braves v. Blue Jays -125 | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves are hitting .139 against left-handed pitching. Who does that? Well, they do, so far. This level of futility comes with 4 home runs and 10 RBI in 118 at-bats. They are duking it out with Detroit to see who can be worse. Lefty Robbie Ray has a decent history against the guys he’s faced in this deficient-vs.-lefthanders lineup, allowing only 2 home runs in 80 at bats with a .286 Slugging Percentage against him. The bullpen behind Ray has a 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Drew Smyly… yawn. 4, 5, 6 runs allowed in his three starts, including 6 home runs. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.62 runs per game in their latest of friendly Florida confines in Dunedin, FL, #4 in home ballpark scoring. |
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04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have awakened from their hitting slump and are tied with two other teams for best Hits per Run ratio in MLB, 1.57. One of the other two teams is the Reds, who return home to a ballpark in which they average 7.75 runs per game and are facing a starter who, while his short-sample 1021 numbers are better than in his last two seasons, still has much to prove as to whether or not he’ll ever achieve his old All-Star form. Meanwhile, the Cubs have 11 homers vs. left-handed pitchers, more than a bunch of teams with more at-bats against southpaws. Wind is blowing out to right-center. Up, up and away! |
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04-29-21 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 9 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves’ righthander Bryce Wilson was dropped out of the sky into a post-season game as a MLB-debuting rookie against the Dodgers last year and allowed 1 hit in 6 innings in an Atlanta win. So far, this looks to have been a one-hit wonder (get it? He allowed 1 hit, ‘one-hit wonder’? Ha-ha). Anyway, with 9 total innings pitched in two starts, Wilson has allowed 11 hits and 6 runs. These Cubs, and the Diamondbacks, each hit 2 home runs against him. The Cubs beat him 13-4 on April 18 and should be happy to see him again so soon. Cubs starter Adbert Alzoloay has pitched only against the Brewers so far this season. Three starts, three losses. The Braves have been a more efficient offense than Milwaukee’s. Despite big struggles against left-handed pitching (.137 batting average vs. southpaws, yikes!), Atlanta’s Hits Per Run ratio of 1.58 is #4 in MLB, behind Chicago’s #2 of 1.56 Hits per Run. |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Tigers have been the meekest American League offensive team against left-handed pitching, with a .182 batting average against them, On-Base Percentage of only .239. White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon followed up on his no-hitter with 5 innings of 3-hit, 2-run ball on the road at Cleveland. Not bad, considering the Indians were the team he no-hit and they’d just faced him six days prior. Rodon has allowed only 2 runs and 5 hits in three starts, which have totaled 19 innings. His White Sox teammates hit heavy against lefties, close to normal vs. righties. |
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04-29-21 | Mariners v. Astros -149 | 1-0 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the first two games of this series, our ‘trigger’ was the scenario of the Astros facing a Seattle lefthander after they’d done okay vs. Kikuchi in Seattle despite not having 33% of the starting batting order available, and being pro-Houston. That was the right move each time and that is the scenario here, with Kikuchi in the flesh to try to improve upon the 5 runs he allowed to the Astros’ B lineup in that game. After wins as home favorite of -170 and -160, then yesterday’s ‘pass’ on Houston against a righty at -200 (they won that one, too), today’s -150 is pretty much a ‘buy low’ on these Astros, who have proven worthy in the situation while quickly leapfrogging the Mariners in the standings. Seattle came into this series in first place in the AL West. Not anymore. |
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04-29-21 | A's -105 v. Rays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics look to bounce back from two defeats and achieve a split of the four game series with ace righthander Chris Bassitt, who's been flashing good form in recent appearances (3.00 ERA last two). The A's remain atop the competitive AL West (7-3, +$385 last 10 days) and come in here with a 7-3 record in day games (+$455). They'll face a first time starter at Tropicana Field, so we'll take the visitor against the Tampa rookie left-hander. |
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04-28-21 | Rockies +140 v. Giants | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eyeballing this match-up yesterday we were hoping the Rockies would still be winless on the road because it’s more fun that way. But they won last night. No problem. We’re pretty sure that that they’ll win more than 1 of 81 away from Coors Field. A good spot for another would be when starting a pitcher like German Marquez. Or, better yet, German Marquez himself. Until Jon Gray suddenly became consistently good this April (with five more months to get through), Marquez was Colorado’s most reliable starter for the last few seasons. He made two starts vs. the Giants in 2020. One was home, the other in whatever the heck they’re calling it this year — Pac Bell? SBC? AT&T? Nah, not it. But who cares? Marquez was 2-0 in those games, giving up 11 hits and 3 runs in 13 1/3 innings with 12-2 K-BB. Lefty Alex Wood, first-season Giant, is 2-0 after befuddling the Marlins in back-to-back starts. We’ll let him prove he can get past this lineup, with guys who’ve combined to hit .304 against him with a .584 slugging percentage and 17 RBIs in 56 at-bats. |
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04-28-21 | Angels v. Rangers +115 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Young Dunning has done okay so far for the win-later Rangers after being traded by the win-now White Sox for Lance Lynn over the winter. While the White Sox validated themselves by shellacking the heck out of him five days ago (‘Hey, we traded you. You think we’re not going to kill you now?), he’d given the Rangers three starts of 6, 4, 5 innings prior to that, allowing 10 hits and 1 run in 15 innings with 17-2 K-BB. But then came his former teammates, in Chicago, to put the second-year major leaguer in his place. But the Angels have never faced Dunning as the scoreboard re-sets to 0-0 and Alex Cobb opposes him. In nine MLB seasons before this, his first with the Angels, Cobb’s K-per-9 inning rates have been: 6.3, 7.0, 8.4, 8.1, 6.5, 6.4, 6.0, 5.8, 6.5. So far in 2021 after three very spaced-apart starts, that rate is 13.2 Ks per 9 innings. That’s what we call ‘No way, Jose’ numbers, whiffing almost twice as many guys per 9 IP as in any of the last five seasons. A guy with a 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP despite the too high-to-be-believed K rate destined to come down, seems like a meaty bone being served to a hungry home dog. |
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04-28-21 | Cubs v. Braves -126 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs lost to Atlanta for the fourth time in five head to head games this season (-$350) when they squared off last night, and they're poised to get swept at SunTrust Park. Chicago now has a pitiful 4-13 record vs. right-handers in 2021 (-$1120), averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game in those contests. Huascar Ynoa checks in with a 2.25 ERA at home, while Kyle Hendricks has been ineffective in four starts for the Cubs (-$355, 5.68 ERA). Good spot for the Braves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor.raves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor. |
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04-28-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Steven Matz has been having just a high old time of it for his new team, Toronto. Four starts, four wins. a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Sign him up to start the All-Star game and begin engraving his name on the Cy Young Award, right? Well, not so fast, my friends. This National League refugee has been foolin’ American League teams. Washington is in the National League. They know this guy from being in the same NL East with him. They have driven Matz to many an ERA-inflating early exit. Speaking of early exits, we give you the Nationals’ Erikc Fedde, averaging less than 5 IP per start with an ERA of 5.55, WHIP of 1.47. Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their Florida ballpark. |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sonny Gray has faced the Dodgers only once since coming to the National League. It was in April, 2019, and he threw 6 innings of 2-hit ball against them. Nice, but, even though it was only two seasons ago, there is much water under that bridge. The Dodgers have become a better-hitting team in the interim. Gray, meanwhile, tailed off badly in the latter part of 2020, made a late 2021 debut, and after two starts has a 7.88 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. He couldn’t complete 5 innings against Cleveland, then failed to make it out of the fourth inning at St. Louis. It’s a 1:10 pm, PT local start, in broad daylight throughout. No shadows to help. Nowhere to hide. That goes for Kershaw, too, who is who he is but it would not be a surprise if, given Gray’s most recent history and some Cincinnati bullpen meltdowns, L.A. went Over this total on their own. |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros -190 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A lay as large as last night’s, and now tonight’s, is higher than we’ll typically go but ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do in order to win. Right? Right. We referenced the situation yesterday: Houston hits lefties pretty well. They got to one in Seattle despite missing 33% of their starting batting order but lost the game. They got to one last night for 12 hits and 5 runs in 5 1/3 innings with all of those guys back. (Hey, with 12 hits, they shoulda scored more than 5 runs against Sheffield, for cryin’ out loud!) Even Jose Altuve, whose status they were keeping under wraps, showed up for the first time in a while and went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI. Did Seattle learn anything? Seemingly not. They insist on throwing another lefthander at the Astros tonight, against whom the Houston batters have a .318 against in 138 at-bats. Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman… hitting .429, .500, .444 and .348 against Marco Gonzalez. The Astros counter with Cristian Javier, who exits a pair of 5-inning, 3-hit, shutout ball starts against the A’s and Angels with total K-BB 16-3. |
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04-27-21 | Red Sox +136 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have the second worst Hits per Run scored ratio in MLB, 2.32 hits for every run. They are #28 of 30 in runs per game: 3.29. With this offense — always eligible to improve but being what it is right now — they throw lefty David Peterson, who has yet to log a full Major League season, at the lineup with the best road batting average and slugging percentage in MLB, .286 and .510. When the Cubs were having mysterious problems at the plate, the baseball gods sent Peterson to Wrigley field last week to help revive Chicago bats in a 16-4 Mets loss started by Peterson, who allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Only 3 of the runs were earned but 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings is a better offensive rate than the Mets have been scoring at over 8 or 9 innings. |
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04-27-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nationals ace Max Scherzer is pitching like Max Scherzer: three starts five days apart totaling 19 innings, only 9 hits, 1 run, 24-4 KK-BB. He and his teammates head Blue Jay way to play against Tampa-based Toronto batters who have combined for 6 hits in 56 at-bats against Scherzer. That’s an .066 Batting Average. It’s a good thing for them that they haven’t had to face Scherzer in every at-bat, or they’d have to find a new profession for a lot less money! Meanwhile, Toronto is turning Tyler Thornton into a reliever/opener. So far, so good with a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Toronto’s bullpen has a 2.10 ERA, lowest in MLB, paired with a respectable fifth lowest WHIP of 1.12. Home pitchers will be tossing at the lineup with the worst Hits per Run ratio in MLB: 2.39 hits for every run scored by the Nationals. |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates -106 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units One of the pleasant surprises for Matheny has been Tuesday's starting pitcher, RHP Jakob Junis. Originally slated for long relief and the occasional spot start, Junis is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. He's gone exactly five innings in his three starts and appears to have found a solid spot in the rotation. Junis will face lefty Tyler Anderson, who is 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA. He has been steady, going five or 5 1/3 innings, and allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. He's struck out 21 in 20 1/3 innings. Neither Junis or Anderson has faced Tuesday's opponent before. |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units You have to believe that Kenta is Maeda better stuff than the efforts that have produced a 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP after four starts. He made 11 starts in his first season with the Twins and had an ERA of 2.70, WHIP of 0.75. There’s regressions, for sure, but this is too far the other way. The light-hitting Indians are a good lineup for him to get back on track against. But the Twins batters have gone cold against just about anybody and everybody, lefty, righty, young, old, doesn’t matter. In the one game Minnesota has managed to win in their last 13, they scored 2 runs. |
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04-26-21 | Mariners v. Astros -162 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros aren’t hitting .300 against lefties anymore but their run production against them has been just fine, as it was when they faced a different Mariners lefty — Kikuchi — in Seattle during a recent road trip. They got 5 runs against that guy despite playing without Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. But they still had a 5-2 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh of that game, when the bullpen started to blow it. Altuve has still been out but the others are back. Justus Sheffield has a more difficult lineup to get through than any of the Seattle pitchers had during that prior series in Seattle. Jose Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball in that loss which is all you can ask for and not unreasonable to expect again. |
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04-26-21 | Marlins v. Brewers UNDER 6.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nobody’s been hitting Corbin Burnes well. The first to do it wouldn’t figure to be the Marlins, coming out of San Francisco off the red-eye after scoring 0, 3, 5, 3 runs in that series. Burnes has made four starts, all 6 innings, allowing 1, 1, 2 and 4 hits, a total of 1 run in 24 innings with 40-0 K-BB. That’s 0 walks, not a misprint. It’s 1-2-3 strikes you’re out!… 1-2-3 strikes you’re out! The bullpen behind Burnes is good. Miami starter Trevor Rogers is doing well in his own right: 4 starts, a total of 22 IP, with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, only 1 home run allowed. Not bad, kid. Rogers pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball vs. Baltimore five days ago, needing only 82 pitches in a 3-0 win. The Yelich-less Brewers have never faced him at this level and are hitting a mere .222 vs. left-handed pitching. |
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04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Royals’ Brad Keller has been having serious trouble early, failing to make it out of the second inning twice, and the fourth inning another time. He has allowed 16 hits and 16 runs in 12 inning pitched. Yow. The Tigers’ offensive woes have been at their worst against left-handed pitching. Keller is righthanded. On the opposite end of the trouble spectrum, the Tigers’ bullpen has an ERA of 6.11, WHIP of 1.59. The ERA is highest in MLB, the WHIP second-highest behind Colorado’s 1.61. |
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04-25-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have been a better hitting team at home than they have been on the road. Away, they’ve been shut out at Arizona, twice at San Francisco, and then last night in St. Louis. Ours is not to reason why. Ours is but to do… and keep doing. Good things tend to happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. They’ve won all four of them so far and scored 11, 7, 14 and 12 runs in doing so. As we said recently, Flaherty is a guy who’ll be laying -160 on a regular basis before long. Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo is not pitching to his reputation and past numbers, with his 6.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Two starts ago in San Francisco they gave him a 4-0 lead in the first inning but it was gone, goodbye, all of it, by the time he got his first three outs. He followed up on that stinker by losing a home game to the D-Backs giving up 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings. |
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04-25-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Units10* Total of the Month Right-hander Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) will start Sunday as the Astros pursue the series sweep. It will mark his first start since he allowed six runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers while battling an illness on April 14. McCullers had allowed a total of two earned runs with 13 strikeouts over his previous two starts. McCullers is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA over 13 career starts against the Angels, posting 66 strikeouts over 70 innings. He failed to record an out in his most recent appearance against the Angels, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks in the Astros' 6-5 road loss on Sept. 4, 2020. Right-hander Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50) gets the start for the Angels in the series finale. He allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts over five innings in his previous appearance, a 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers on April 19. |
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04-25-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 6.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -121 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitchers: Baumgarner vs Smyly Madison Bumgarner pitched better than his typical 4 IP, 7 H, 6 R outing when the D-Backs beat the Nationals in his last start. But Washington is the least efficient offense in MLB. The Braves lineup figures to be more difficult for him. Ronald Acuna returned to it from injury Friday. Although the Braves are hitting only .182 vs. lefties, they have only 88 at-bats against them, third-fewest. A team scoring 5.88 runs per game in its home park, facing Bumgarner, should improve in the “Vs. Lefties” department today. Meanwhile, the Braves put Drew Smyly back out there after he missed a turn due to forearm inflammation. Hey, two starts is a lot for a poor guy with a one-year, $11 million contract to make without a rest! Southpaw Smyly had pitched 11 innings allowing 7 runs before this. Arizona has MLB’s best team OPS vs. lefties, .898. NOTE: DO NOT play if pitchers listed are different than actual |
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04-25-21 | Royals -112 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The American League Central division’s first place team lays a short number throwing a lefty against a host that hasn’t been able to hit them. We had a winner with the Royals and Mike Minor over the Tigers on Friday and after that affair, the Tigers are still hitting only .179 vs. lefthanders with a mere 8 RBI and 2 home runs in 145 at-bats. The Royals have won the first two games of this series and if you think we’re stepping in against a desperate home team seeking to avoid being swept in a series, please be aware that the Tigers will have that opportunity tomorrow when the four-game set concludes. Michael Fulmer is a fine pitcher but as noted on Friday, he and the lousy Detroit bullpen with the 6.00+ ERA will have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support, should the numbers hold. Duffy is pitching well since he isn’t spending his time being found asleep in parked cars early in the morning. |
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04-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day The Blue Jays got 3 runs off Tampa’s opener Brent Honeywell, Jr. yesterday, then Ryan Yarbrough gave them 5 2/3 innings of shutout relief, followed by 2 more innings of shutout relief from the finalizers. That’s the Rays’ bullpen people have come to expect, not the one that entered yesterday’s game with an ERA greater than 5.00. Today, they’re really getting creative, starting one of the kids they got from San Diego in the Blake Snell trade, 21-year-old Luis Patino. He’s a good one and by the time they figure him out, the righthander will be outta there, perhaps after only 3 innings. After that, the plan is to bring in lefty Josh Fleming, a second-year pitcher the Blue Jays got 2 hits and 0 runs against in 14 at-bats during his rookie season. Young mystery guns. Good thing the cross-town based Blue Jays are throwing their own stingy lefty, Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 1.04 WHIP, 21-2 K-BB in 24 innings. |
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04-24-21 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Day The Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog, 11-4-1 in Marlins last 16 during game 3 of a series, and 19-7-1 in Marlins last 27 Saturday games. |
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04-24-21 | Blue Jays +110 v. Rays | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a new crosstown rivalry! The Blue Jays are playing home games right across the Old Tampa Bay in Dunedin, FL, which is 35 minutes west of the Rays’ Tropicana Field. The collective fear of a nation other than the U.S. has forced their exile from Canada. They didn’t have to get on an airplane to play last night’s game, in which National League lefty refugee Steven Matz helped propel them to a win against a guy who’d been next to unhittable, Tyler Glasnow. Did driving across town, vs. packing a lot more stuff and flying 3.5 hours, have something to do with their ability to get the road W? We’ll never know for sure but it couldn’t have hurt. Tonight, they throw another one of their National League lefty refugees — they have a trio of them doing good work — against the Rays (Ray against the Rays, ha!). Tampa counters with one of their famous relief nights, opened by Brent Honeywell, Jr. It’s been a good formula for the franchise since it was instituted but the bullpen currently has an ERA of 5.21. |
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04-24-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ace vs. Ace. Sub-1.00 WHIP vs. sub-1.00 WHIP. That’s where you normally get your 1-0 or 2-1 ballgames. We’ll take 3-2, too. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland puts some shadows out there as a 10th fielder against the hitters. Bieber’s only start out of four that has gone Over the Total was in Cincinnati, against the heaviest-scoring home team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Cole’s four starts are also 1-3 OU, in which 7 of the 9 the runs in the game were scored by the Yankees against lousy Orioles pitchers Kremer, Plutko, Wells and LeBlanc. Even Jay Bruce got a home run that day. He hitting was so bad otherwise that he quit the game last week. Gave it up. Walked off. |
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04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cardinals batters who have faced him have made good contact against lefty Wade Miley of the Reds. They’re hitting .321 against him in 78 at-bats, and his K-BB against them is a mere 14-12. Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, all .300 or better lifetime vs. Miley and the Cardinals are tagging lefthanded pitching in general pretty well so far with an .811 OPS. St. Louis starter John Gant has a lot of hair and a lot of walks: 11 of them in 14 innings over three starts. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league! He’s been able to somehow strand a lot of guys while accruing his lousy WHIP of 1.86, which doesn’t jive with his decent ERA of 3.21. |
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04-24-21 | Brewers +101 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 101 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time this season, there’s a Peralta-Alzolay match-up. Third time could be the charm for Alzolay and the Cubs after they lost the prior two 6-3 and 4-0, away and home. They’re on a four-game win streak and have broken out of an early-season slump. But the scoreboard is reset from 15-2 last night and maybe they’re just not ready for Freddie after his two pitching lines against them totaled 11 innings of work, 3 hits, 1 run. Peralta is backed by one of the best bullpens going. Gotta draw a line through yesterday’s game when Brewers’ starter Brett (I’m on My Way Outta Baseball) Anderson failed to get out of the first inning against the Cubs, and anti-reliever Josh Lindblom entered with gas cans full, pouring them onto the fire with gleeful zeal so that by the end of the second inning, it was 10-0 Cubs. |
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04-24-21 | Royals v. Tigers +107 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals have hit well against righthanders, but they've averaged just 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws so far, and Detroit starter Matthew comes in with a 2.03 ERA in three outings this season. KC has a tenuous grip on 1st place in the AL Central because their pitching staff is underperforming (4.53 ERA, 4th worst in the league). The Tigers are getting an underdog price with a hot lefty on the mound. |
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04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -159 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day OMG! Extremely unusual mishaps on and off the field that happened to the Twins while they were on the road shouldn’t happen to a dog. A mean dog. They are the ‘coldest’ team in baseball, 1-9 in their last 10 games, last place in the American League Central. But it just so happens that the opponents they’ve been losing to are the hottest teams in baseball — Oakland, 11-game winning streak; Boston, who’d been 10-1 in their last 11 after taking three of four from Minnesota; Seattle, tied for first place with Oakland in the AL West. Following a curtailed trip that was cut to four games from seven, they return home — not the most serene place in the world right now but home, nevertheless — and take a major drop in class with the Pirates as the visitor. The Twins made the post-season last year, won 60% of their games. This is like a stakes horse that was shipped out of town but could never get the feel of the track and was thrown off its routine when asked to run against a fellow stakes horses on its own home track (Oakland), returning to its home course matched against an out of town allowance horse. The Twins’ bats have been weak vs. lefties but the Pirates didn’t get the memo and will start JT Brubaker, as his teammates who have faced JA Happ try to figure out why they are hitting a combined .131 against him in 83 at-bats. |
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04-23-21 | Royals -106 v. Tigers | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are atop the American League Central and have arrived for a four-game road series against a perennial loser they beat six times in 10 games last season. There’s a long way to go and they probably won’t last, but they’re set up to at least sustain what they’ve got going for another night in this day-to-day world. Mike Minor seems like a major asset to leverage against the host Tigers, who are ahead of only the Mets in average runs scored per game (3.37). Minor is a crafty, 33-year-old lefthander throwing at a lineup that is currently batting a Major League-low .174 against lefties with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in 121 at-bats. Although Minor has been around the block more than a few times, the current group of Tigers has only 24 at-bats against him with results that mirror their struggles against southpaws so far in 2021: a mere 3 hits, all singles, and 11 Ks vs. 1 walk. Detroit’s Casey Mize, and the bullpen behind him with the highest ERA and WHIP in MLB (6.64, 1.67), would really have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support if the Tigers’ offensive numbers hold. |
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04-23-21 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are making us look smart by playing to their weak Hits per Run ratio of 2.33, failing to move runners around two nights in a row at Wrigley Field. Who do they come home to play against? The team with the only offense worse than them in that particular category (Nationals: 1 run scored for every 2.38 hits). Given that Jacob Degrom is pitching for the Mets, Washington figures for a only a few hits in the first place. He is pretty much who he is, coming out of a quality start in Coors Field (few can do that) after throwing 14 innings with 8 hits and 1 run allowed against Miami and Philadelphia. |