Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-14 | St. Louis Rams +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that STL will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at getting an upset road win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination play just as we did in Saturday's Huge 25* Titan play using ECU. Play a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 3-13 mark using the money line and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (TAMPA BAY) that is off an upset loss as a favorite and in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. SIM shows that Rams will contain the Bucs to 21 or fewer points. Over the past three seasons, the Rams are a perfect 6-0 ATS when allowing 15 to 21 points in a game. Given the QB situation, the Rams will focus more on the ground attack and will be quite successful in that effort. The Rams are a nice 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards. Rams were the only team not to score a TD in Week 1, but I believe the matchups favor a solid offensive day for the Rams. The public jumped ship very quickly on the Rams and have bet nearly 70% of their wagers on the Bucs and have completely ignored the Rams. Despite the absence of DE Long, the Rams still have a solid front seven that features All-Pro Robert Quinn. Containing that imposing defensive line may be even more difficult for Tampa Bay given that Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins isn't even close to 100 percent healthy. Mankins, acquired from New England on Aug. 26, left in the second quarter of last Sunday's 20-14 loss to Carolina with a knee injury and did not return. Coach Lovie Smith isn't sure if Mankins will be able to start, but he said the injury wasn't too serious and the team won't seek out another lineman. So, with a strong ground attack, the Rams can then use Hill in easy to read play action passes and maximize yards after the catch. Now, you can see the matchups that make me a strong believer the Rams will cover this number and may even win the game. Take the Rams. |
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09-13-14 | Arizona State v. Colorado +16 | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on Colorado as they host Arizona State in CFB action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. ASU is coming off a big win, at least on the scoreboard, to New Mexico. They are 2-0 on the season, but have yet to play any formidable opponent. Based on my opponent PR ratings, ASU has one of the weakest first two games in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 146-71 ATS mark for 67.2% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (COLORADO) in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is one of the best CFB systems I have in the database and has gone 24-10 for 71% winners making 38 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +200 DOG line and is truly what makes this system one that you can tack on your own to make even more money for seasons to come. Play against a road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) that is a good team from last season (60% to 80% in percentage) playing a team who had a losing record last year and with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. I suggest playing this 10* Titan in the same combination as outlined for the UTSA game above. Take the Colorado Buffalos. |
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09-13-14 | Texas-San Antonio +13.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas - San Antonio as they take on Oklahoma State in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. I have played UTSA in their previous 2 games with great success as they upset Houston 27-7 as an 8 point dog and then easily covered in Week2 against Arizona as a 7 1/2 point dog. This will certainly be their stiffest test, but they have played against solid opponents in the first two weeks. They are a very good and vastly under rated team with excellent coaching. I am most impressed with the balanced offensive attack and I fully expect that unit to do very well tonight. The SIm confirms this belief showing that UTSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and between 350 and 400 total yards. In these situations, they have posted a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. I also like making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 10.5* units. Take Texas-San Antonio. |
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09-13-14 | Army +28 v. Stanford | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
10* graded play on Army as they take on Stanford in CFB action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 25 points. Stanford is coming off a very disappointing loss to USC last week having blown 7 red zone scoring opportunities. I had USC as my PAC-12 Game of the Year and feel quite fortunate to come away with that victory. I fully expect the Cardinal to be completely flat against an inferior foe in Army. That type of loss last week is worse than one losing in OT and it sticks with a team for a long while. Army has the ground attack and offensive that can easily shorten this game and make it far more competitive then the 28 point line currently shown at majority of books. What I also like too is that Army returns 9 starters on offense including the QB and that experience will serve them very well in this matchup. Cardinal just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite since 1992; 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992. Take Army. |
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09-13-14 | East Carolina +9.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on East Carolina as they take on V-Tech in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that East Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Hokies. Given this favorable projection, I recommend making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I do see this game as a letdown situation for the Hokies, who are coming off one of their best upset victories in years last week. ECU is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games off a road loss since 1992. Supporting this Titan release is a system that has gone 50-17 for 75% winners and has made 46 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a road team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) that is an excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) and now facing a good offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The Pirates put forth a respectable effort in their 33-23 loss to South Carolina, as they had a 453-441 yardage edge. QB Shane Carden was 32-of-46 for 321 yards, but had a couple of costly interceptions. I see huge matchup advantages for Carden to exploit on the perimeter getting the ball out quickly with three step drops and with the receivers getting the ball in space to make plays. The dominant key to this game is that I fully expect ECU to have a massive yards after the catch advantage leading them to a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Take the Pirates. |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +36 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
10* graded play on Buffalo as they host Baylor in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 32 points. This is simply just too many points and I live Buffalo to cover this generous number tonight. Baylor knows they are a much better team and can easily win this game. It is also a short week in preparation and the Bears are coming off two dominating performances in their new stadium outscoring their opponents a combined 115-6. However, the Bears have some significant injuries and 'aches' within their starting units. QB Petty has been upgraded to probable, but that certainly does not imply he will play all four quarters. Same can be said of WR Goodley nursing a leg injury. There are four WR and 1 backup RB that will not see action tonight. The last thing the 8th ranked team needs is to have more injuries in a game that can be won with their second units. That is what I fully expect tonight and the second and third units of Baylor will at least give Buffalo a chance to move the ball, score points, and be more competitive. Baylor WR KD Cannon will be playing and he is coming off the second best WR yardage total in school history and did not even play the second half. He scored three TD on 50, 81. and 42 yards in the first quarter. Given his elite speed, you can bet that Buffalo will bracket him in a base cover-2 preventing him from getting behind the safeties. This scheme at least contains quick scores for the most part. Again, he is a starter that has burst on the national stage at the age of just 18 years. So, with the strong belief that Baylor will rest many of their starters once a significant lead is attained gives Buffalo a solid shot at staying with the generous number. Take Buffalo. |
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09-11-14 | Houston +19 v. BYU | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on Houston as they take on BYU in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. BYU is off to an impressive 2-0 start and have covered both contests very easily. Houston has gone 1-1, but failed to cover in either game. This is going to be a much better test for BYU than their previous two opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (BYU) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 59% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points and this under scores by strong belief that this will be a single digit game. BYU has had two impressive road wins, BUT they are just 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992 and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992. Houston was dominated by Texas - San Antonio in Week1 (a big win as a Top rated Titan release), but don't under estimate the fact they return 8 starters on offense and the quarterback and also return 9 defensive starters. No doubt BYU will look to run the ball and I expect 50 rushing attempts in this game. Houston will be prepared for this scheme and will be able to contain it. I like Houston being able to establish their ground game just enough so play action pass will be very effective. Take Houston. |
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09-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Briefly and perhaps bluntly, the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and they certainly have better coaching. The Sim shows consistent and conclusive projections that the 49ers will dominate this game and the following game situations support those projections. SF is 11-1 ATS when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards over the last three seasons; 12-3 when they have gained 6.5 to 7.0 Yards-per-play; 8-2 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points; 11-3 when they have allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards 8-2 ATS when they have gained 200 to 250 net passing yards. Dallas is a money burning 2-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 10-46 ATS when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards. Further, 49ers are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers. |
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09-07-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off what would be a most amazing upset win. If you can play the money line add only a maximum of 1.5* units on a money line lay on JAX (just in case). Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-12 mark for 77.4% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Simply, this system under scores the Not For Long 'logo' of the NFL. Each season there are 4 to 5 new playoff teams in the fold. I'm not saying that JAX will be a playoff team, but I do believe that they can be a second place team in the Divisional race. So, playing 'OVER' the wins total is an excellent wager as well. I suggest a 5* amount on that play. JAX is thin at wide receiver for this game. Shorts is out officially with a hamstring and then Blackmon is out indefinitely and Sanders out for the first four games of the season due to violation of league's substance abuse policy. Still, Marquis Lee, is an excellent target for Henne. Lee has the size, quickness, and hands to have a huge day against a suspect Eagle defensive secondary. The biggest matchup is Toby Gerhart at RB for JAX. The Eagles failed miserably to stop power runners between the tackles last season and it is quite possible they could be even worse in that category. Speaking of defense, JAX has a much improved scheme and one that I truly believe will cause major 'read' problems for both Foles and the Eagle receivers. Eagle fans may just think this will be a walk in the park, but they may be extremely anxious when JAX has the ball late in the 4th and down just 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-07-14 | Oakland Raiders +5.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Rookie QB and a team that positively no one respects at all, yet this line is less than a score. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU. Given this favorable projection, I encourage you to make a combination wager consisting of an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) that was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Derek Carr will start for the Raiders and rookies traditionally have had poor games in their first few starts. Yet, Carr has several matchup to exploit today. The Jets corners are not lock-down types as they had had in past seasons. In fact, I don't see them being able to play consistent man defense against the Raiders WR corp. Since HC Ryan became the Jets' head coach in 2009, rookie quarterbacks are 1-7 the first time they faced a Ryan defense. In those eight games, the rookies have completed 48.3 percent of their passes (129 of 267) for 1,522 yards, six touchdowns and eight interceptions and have absorbed 27 sacks. So, with this history lesson, the Raiders have an excellent OL and can easily run short passes into the flat and even bubble screens. Carr will no doubt use a quick release and get the ball out quickly. Further, I see the Oakland running game being highly effective against what will be an overly aggressive Jets defensive front. Once the ground game gets going, then Carr will have the luxury of using play action to freeze pass rushers and supporting LB. He has a tremendous arm and the Raiders will look to go deep in vertical pass routes on any down. Raiders will control the clock and that will be a big reason they win this game. Take the Raiders. |
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09-07-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Chicago Bear sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at pulling off an improbably upset win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. The game projections call for a huge day on the ground by the Bills. The projections call for a 176 rushing yards. In past games, where the Bears have allowed more than 150 rushing yards, they are just 3-9 ATS the past three seasons and 18-56 ATS since 1992. When allowing 175+ rushing yards, the Bears are a money burning 2-5 ATS the past three seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992. Bills are 5-3 ATS over the past three seasons and a 41-9 ATS since 1992 when gaining 175+ rushing yards. Bills will control the LOS on both sides of the ball and given the ground attack they will have a huge edge in TOP. Take the Bills. |
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09-06-14 | USC +3 v. Stanford | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Southern California Trojans as they take on Stanford in a huge Pac-12 matchup and one that will have major conference ramifications. Stanford has the nation's longest home winning streak at 18 games. All streaks do end, and I completely believe SC will dominate this game from start to finish. The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game. With the line at +3, the ML does not afford an solid investment option. Should the line go to 3 1/2, which is not expected, the ML would then be more attractive. However, I will simply play this as a 25* graded amount using the line only. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2003. Play against a home team (STANFORD that was a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. 36 of the 55 winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. SC is a solid 22-8 against the money line (+16.3 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 17-5 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 15-5 against the money line (+10.1 Units) when they rush for 2.5 to 3 yards per attempt since 1992; 42-10 against the money line (+29.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. No doubt, the SC offense will put a lot of pressure on the Stanford defense, especially in the backend. Another matchup I see as a HUGE advantage for SC is DE Leonard Williams against Stanford LT Andrus Peat. Williams is huge, fast, and very quick for his size at 6-5 300 lbs. Peat is 6-7 and 312 lbs and has excellent technique and will certainly be playing on Sundays in the NFL. Yet, Williams has better technique and can gain leverage with his strong legs and get under Peat to move him laterally. This will be a matchup I will be watching very closely and one that I see Williams winning. Take USC. |
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09-06-14 | Akron +14 v. Penn State | 3-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
10* graded play on Akron as they take on Penn State in CFB action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 50-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites (PENN ST) in non-conference games with 5 offensive starters returning in games played during the first two weeks of the season. Of the total wagers made, 44% covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 55-23 ATS for 71% winners since 2002. Play against home team (PENN ST) that was a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning. PSU played well against SFU last week in Ireland. The travel impacts athletes in every sport and CFB is not immune to the 'lag' impacts of traveling that far to play a game. So, I do expect PSU to be a bit 'slow' and quite possibly not taking Akron as a serious opponent. Take Akron to cover ATS. |
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09-06-14 | Oklahoma v. Tulsa +25 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
10* graded play on Tulsa as they host Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This is just too many points. Tulsa returns 10 starters on defense featuring SS Mudoch, who had 133 tackles last season and DE Alexander, who had 6.5 sacks last season. I strongly believe this unit will be up to the challenge that the Sooners offense will bring to the game. Sooners are re-tolling on offense with just 5 starters returning. Sooners are just 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Oklahoma has been doing some talking this week in the media outlets clearly stating that they believe they have the best front seven in the nation. Perhaps they do, BUT they will be facing a vastly under rated QB in Dane Evans, who has a very quick 'Peyton Manning' release. Oklahoma looks to stop the run first and then get pressure on the QB. Yet, in this matchup, there won't be time for them to get on the QB and Evans is extremely accurate getting balls to receivers in space. Evans sees the field very well and his quick release will frustrate the Sooner pass rushers. Take Tulsa. |
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09-06-14 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +12.5 | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Iowa State as they host Kansas State in CFB action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. If you can get a Money Line for this game, then add a 1.5* amount to the 10* unit line play. I have already nailed Texas A&M and Texas- San Antonio in their respective huge upset wins in Week 1. So, don't be surprised if Iowa State pulls of the same result today. ISU returns 10 starters including the QB on offense and this is a big time advantage for them facing a defensive unit that returns just 5 starters. Team chemistry, especially along an OL, is very critical in the first four weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (IOWA ST) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Of the plays made 51% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. So, look for ISU to make this a very close game throughout and a strong opportunity to win the game in the 4th quarter. Take Iowa State. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on Seattle in NFL action set to open the 2014 regular season at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Packers will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at upsetting the reigning Super Bowl Champions. I like using a combination wager for this game by playing an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a 10.5* total risk amount. Aaron Rogers is the dominant reason I see the Packers upsetting Seattle. McCarthy's west coats offensive schemes till stretch defense vertically and this is clearly where Rogers is exceptional. He is arguably the best deep thrower int he game having ranked second last season in Deep Passing Accuracy over the past three seasons. The ground attack will feature the power attack of Lacy. Nothing has changed really with the Packers ground attack other than Lacy will get even more touches in 2014. The power ground attack is strong enough for even elite defenses to have to respect and this in turn opens up play action for Rogers to add valuable time in the pocket to scan the field. When he has time, his accuracy is undeniably the best in the NFL. Last year was easily the best season of Jordy Nelson’s career. Having the Seneca Wallace-Scott Tolzien-Matt Flynn combination at quarterback for 7 games and without Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley on the field for most of the year made it all the more impressive. Showing that he can do just about anything, Nelson racked up the fourth-most receiving yards from the slot—an alignment he was rarely utilized in in the past. At the other receiver spot, Cobb was on pace for over 90 receptions and 1,200 yards prior to his injury and his 77.5% catch rate was the highest in the league at wide receiver. Russell Wilson is a contrast in QB form and purpose to that of Rogers. He is highly ineffective on passes of 30 yards or more and is average at best for passes between 21 and 30 yards. Despite his scrambling abilities, he is less effective in that situation than simply executing a drop pass play. On standard drop passes he completed 66% with a 73% accuracy rating. On rollouts he completed 62% and had a 75% accuracy rating. When on the run and scrambling he completed only 51% of his passes with a 53% accuracy rating. So, I fully expect Green bay will bring timely corner blitz pressure on him from the weak side of the offensive alignment. Although Seattle is an elite team, I strongly believe that Green Bay has a ton to prove. Take Green Bay. |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas-San Antonio as they host Arizona in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at upsetting a major PAC-12 foe. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* play using the money line for a total of 10.5* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the risk/reward profile produced by the SIM projections. I had UTSA last week in their huge 27-7 win at Houston where they were installed as 8 point dogs. That was certainly no fluke as my research report showed and I expect another great effort by this team Thursday night. The defense held Houston to just 26 yards rushing on 23 carries and forced 6 turnovers. They are a dominant run offensive scheme and that wore down the Houston defensive front very quickly. I fully expect that pounding type of game to have the same impact on the ARZ defense. The SIM shows that UTSA will rush for at least 150 yards. In past games where they have rushed for 150 to 200 rushing yards they are a perfect 7-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-6 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2003. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTSA) and is a team that had a winning record last season and now facing a non-conference foe. Take UTSA. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the DOG projections, I suggest playing this Titan release as a combination wager consisting of a 7* play using the line and a 3.5* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 10.5* units. The money line is at +150 and a 3.5* wager would return 4.5 units in profits, which combined with the 7* line win adds an additional 15% in total profits earned for the play. Although, this does not seem that significant on the surface, over the course of the season it will certainly add up to a very significant result. Just this past week I had Texas A&M in a monster upset of South Carolina and Texas-San Antonio in another big time upset win with both returning very nice additions by adding the Money Line combination wager to the play. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. Miami is a solid money making 23-10 against the money line (+14.8 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 20-10 against the money line (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992; Louisville is just 8-10 against the money line (-18.6 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-9 against the money line (-27.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 net passing yards since 1992. The point is that the records may not produce high percentage results, but you and I must always being looking at units won/lost for meaningful insight to game situations. The Hurricanes will dominate the LOS with a pounding ground attack led by Duke Johnson, who you may remember was the starting back in 2013 and had the Hurricanes off to a 7-0 start before season ending injury sidelined him. He had well over 900 rushing yards in 6 games at that point. This ground attack is eactly what any team needs when starting a true freshman and the Hurricanes have a great one under center in Brad Kaaya. Take the Hurricanes. |
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08-30-14 | Boston College v. UMass +17.5 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
10* graded play on Massachusetts as they take on Boston College in NCAAF action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. BC lost it's three best offensive players from last year's 7-6 bowl season. In fact they return just 3 starters offense and no player had more than 15 catches last season. They have ahd several key additions through transfers, but team chemistry, especially on the offensive line is a critical factor in the first four weeks of the season. Further, BC returns 6 starters on defense, so here again, execution will be inconsistent during games in the early part of the season. UMASS had a horrid season and certainly will look to turn things around. One of the most important decision made was to go to a 3-4 defensive alignment. Given their personnel, this is the right decision and will pay off big for them during the season. This alignment will also let their stud LB Andrey, who had 111 tackles last season, to be an even greater disruptive force. Take UMASS. |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas San Antonio as they take on Houston in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TSA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. This game mirrors my winning play last night with Texas A&M and like the A&M wager I encourage you to add no greater than 1.5* amount using the money line to the 10* wage amount on the line. UTSA's entire O-Line returns to its run-oriented offense propelled by RB David Glasco II (496 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). WR Kam Jones (345 rec yds, 302 rush yds, 6 total TD) is the No. 1 wideout for new QB Tucker Carter (190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), who replaces Eric Soza. The Roadrunners' 4-2-5 defense is strong throughout with DE Robert Singletary (5 sacks), LB Drew Douglas (70 tackles), S Triston Wade (94 tackles) and CB Bennett Okotcha (10 PD). Of the units, TSA returns 10 starters each on offense and defense. This playing experience is a significant factor in matchups during the first four weeks of the season. The Sim projects that TSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and 350 to 400 total offensive yards. In past games, TSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three season in each situation mentioned. Take Texas-San Antonio. |
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08-28-14 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in inter-conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that A&M will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you have access to a money line I would recommend no more than a 1.5* amount to exploit the potential big time upset. Both teams return 14 starts combined and both have lost key play makers from last year's season. South Carolina returns eight starters on offense, but has a new quarterback under center. Their offense will be featuring scat back Mike Davis, who emerged last season as fantastic playmaker. However, the A&M defense returns 9 starters from last year's unit and will be vastly better this season. They have the experience and discipline not to get caught out of position with poor angles of attack in containing Davis. Forcing Thompson to win the game with his arm is the recipe for A&M to make this a single digit game throughout. Of note too is that Davis is listed as probable for tonight's game. He is enduring a rib injury and that is one that is quite painful on any type of hit at this level of football. SIM projects that A&M will score 28 points. In past games where the Gamecocks have allowed 28 points, they are a money burning 0-5 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-62 ATS since 1992. When they allow 31 to 41 points, they are an even worse 0-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 4-17 ATS since 1992. Take the Aggies. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII set to start at 6;30 PM ET Sunday, February 2. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Seattle will get the ground game going with Lynch and will control the clock with a sizable advantage in TOP. SIM projects that Seattle will gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards; will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards; will average 4.0 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt; and will gain 300 to 35o total offensive yards. In past games, Seattle is 4-0 ATS this season and 11-2 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining between 150 an d200 net passing yards; 3-0 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when they gain 125 to 150 rushing yards; 2-0 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining 4.0 to 4.5 yards per rushing attempt; and 4-0 ATS this season and 9-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 an d350 total offensive yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-49 mark for 49.5% winners, BUT has made a whopping 50 units per unit wagered using the money line since 1983. The system has averaged a +210 dog. Play against any team using the money line (DENVER) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. I have no doubt, fundamentally speaking, that HC Carroll and OC Bevell will design a successful game plan to establish the power running game with Lynch. Denver may be statistically strong stopping the run, but they are VERY thin up front and have yet to face an OL and RB like Lynch this season. Eighty percent of the running plays designed for Lynch are run between the tackles where Lynch ranks third on the all-time playoff list posting a 2.9 yards gained AFTER contact. The constant pounding and multiple attempts on each play to bring down Lynch are going to take their toll on the thin Denver DL. Moreover, Wilson makes less money than the long snapper and this has allowed Seattle to form one of the best OL in the game today. You will see a solid formation nearly every time by Seattle with Wilson under center, Lynch in the half back position, a FB to Lynch's left, and a TE lined up on the strong side of the LOS (side that is furthest from the out-of-bounds- marker). This power formation is not only designed for the run game, but also to afford Wilson enough protection for him to use his gifted running abilities to extend plays. This is perhaps even more of a dominant situation than Lynch will be in this game. There are few Denver defenders than can continue to cover well in extended plays and that is exactly what he is best at creating. When extending plays, Wilson is 27-for-60 throwing down field further than 20 yards, ranking best in the NFL. Just ask the 49ers how it is and believe me Denver's secondary is nowhere close to the talent and execution of the 49er unit. So, at the end of the day, I believe it will be the Seattle offense that was just too difficult to contain. Take Seattle.
Prop best are as follows: Lynch MVP at 15/4 Lynch over 90 1/2 rushing yards Lynch OVER longest run from scrimmage 19 1/2 Turbin rushing yards 'OVER' 10 1/2 Harvin 'OVER' 45 1/2 receiving yards. Manning 'OVER' incomplete passes 12 1/2 D Thomas 'under' 75 1/2 receiving yards |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 19, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 9* play using the line and adding a 2.5* amount using the money for a total risk of 11.5* amount. The majority of books I monitor have the ML listed at +165 and this combination bet serves to maximize the Return-on-investment (ROI) quotient. I am 4-0-1 ATS with my previous games of the year and THREE of those plays were DOGS that won the game. Last week I nailed the Patriots as my AFC DIV Game of the Year winner. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-7 mark using the money line for 77% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1983. Plat against any team using the money line (SEATTLE) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games and in a game involving two top-level teams posting win percentages >= 75%. 49ers are a near-perfect 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. The Seahawks have had the best secondary in the NFL led by their All-Pro CBs in Sherman and Thomas. Sherman had very impressive grades despite being targeted ONLY 58 times this season. He led the NFL with eight interceptions, which means he picked off a pass very 13% of passes targeting his receiver. These two CB had the luxury of also having two stout safeties in Thomas and Chancellor protecting the middle of the field. HOWEVER, the 49ers are a team that has steadily improved for the second half of the season and now have a very healthy Crabtree back that more than compliments a very strong power running attack led by Gore and the elusive and speed of QB Kaepernick. I see Seattle being forced to pick their poison; defend the perimeter with both safeties helping deep or taking one of those safeties to stop the run or to be the 'spy' on Kaepernick. Many times, the 49ers call two plays in the huddle and then Kaepernick will call the one that matches up best to the defense he sees pre-snap. The noise in Seattle will be deafening, but actually could be a bit of a blessing for the 49ers, who have had their share of delay-of-game penalties this season. The noise will almost assuredly prevent them from calling two plays. Instead, hand signals between receivers and Kaepernick will be the code for hot reads. I also see the 49ers defensive front containing Lynch and forcing Wilson to win the game with his arm. The 49ers defensive front 7 is among the best in the NFL - if not presently the best - and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The 49ers also picked up free agent Glenn Dorsey, who has graded among the elite DT in the game and has been extremely good at stopping the run. Moreover, the 49ers have the two-best inside linebackers in the game today in Willis and Bowman. The absence of a Lynch ground attack will lead to Wilson having to convert third-an-long situations far more often than Kaepernick will be facing. 49ers offense has a great TE in Davis to offset any zone blitz schemes and he has speed and size advantages on play action against any linebacker or safety on the field. It will be a very physical game, but I strongly believe that the 49ers will eventually dominate both sides of the LOS. Take the San Francisco 49ers.
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC Divisional Playoff action set to start at 4:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I suggest making a combination wager using a 10* amount on the line and then adding a 1.5* amount using the ML. The current ML is listed at +330 and this would return about +4.8 more units to the overall bet than simply playing the line along. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-25 mark for just 57% winners, BUT has made 67 units/unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +280 DOG play making this a very powerful system. Play against favorites using the money line (DENVER) dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponents by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second system that has gone 24-19 for 56% winners, BUT has made 47 units/unit wagered since 1983. Average play has been a +265 DOG. Play against favorites using the money line (DENVER) with an incredible offense averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opponents by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. I believe the Chargers will have the better ground attack and this will allow Rivers extra time in play action to make plays in the passing game. Rodgers-Cromartie is by far the best coverage man for the Broncos and Rivers will look elsewhere most of this game. Bailey will be starting this game, but has been dealing with a litany of injuries. I see this as a matchup favoring the Chargers, especially when covering Royal in the slot or on the perimeter. IN my Game of the Year winner with the Patriots, I mentioned that Jamie Collins was not a drop off in talent replacing the injured Spikes; that the matchup actually improved with Collins on the field given his speed and quickness. Much in the same way, the Chargers are without their No.1 pass rusher in Dwight Freeney, but have 2011 first round DE Corey Liuget on the field. He had four hurries on Manning one of which led to an INT. This is a playmaker that I expect to have a strong game today. Denver defensive front has been largely inconsistent in pass rush this season. I think this weakness has been disguised by the fact that Denver has been playing with multi-score leads. Sd will have the better defensive line and will get more pressure on Manning, than Denver's defensive line causing problems for Rivers. Take the San Diego Chargers.
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Divisional Playoff Round. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?150-78 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. This system is also 7-1 ATS this season. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. I learned along time ago when playing ball at various levels and football and baseball that is not the ace of the pitching staff or the three-hitter in the lineup, or the stud WR, or the All-American QB, that wins you Championships or simply produces a successful season. It is the last 6 players in baseball, and the 3rd and fourth units in football. Everyone either hates or admires Belichick for his ability to 'plug-and-play' year after year. It's far more than just that process though. It is the entire coaching staff dedication to making the players 31 to 53 as good as their potential allows - while not in the starting lineup. No one does it better and we have seen this theme yet again in a season where the Patriots due resemble the Revolutionary War editions. Ok, so that is a nice story. Here is the reality and it starts with the injuries. Injuries are common throughout the NFL, but what the Patriots have suffered borders on the absurd. Six key starters are gone: Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer, Tommy Kelly, and most recently Spikes. The new starters have become Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga, Joe Vellano, Dane Fletcher, and Matthew Mulligan. Now with Spikes out, get to know Jamie Collins, Ja
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -9 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Auburn in the BCS Championship Game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-20 mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play against any team (AUBURN) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 40-13 for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) that is an excellent defensive team allowing <=16 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. I went on record in Week 4 of the regular season that FSU was the pick to win the BCS Championship it was solely because of the incredible defense that I saw forming - not because I thought they have a juggernaut offense led by a Heisman trophy winner. However, the entire team has come together in a rather historical manner and I do not see Auburn having strong success against the FSU defense. Auburn is essentially a one dimensional team with a spread 'read' type of ground attack. Auburn has been very successful against a ton of SEC teams, but they have not faced the speed, quickness, depth, and athleticism that the FSU defense brings to this matchup. Auburn will get yards on the ground, but it will not be enough to stay with the FSU offense. At some point, Auburn will fall behind by 2 scores and be forced to throw the ball more than their game plan calls for. This game will be played on grass and this is the surface where FSU has gone 10-1 ATS this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite this season. Fisher is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach at FSU. At th eend of the day, I simply see FSU with more talent and ones that will make more significant plays than Auburn. Take FSU.
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card game set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a solid team winning 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. Much ahs been talked about the facts that it will be very cold at game time and may be at least the second coldest game ever played. However, this does not favor the home team. Given these incredibly cold temps, the football contracts in size and will get very hard to throw. What doesn't change is the huge matchup advantage the 49ers have in running the ball. The SIM shows that the 49ers will gain at least 150 rushing yards and will gain 6.0+ yards-per-play. In past games, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS this season, 16-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 74-27 ATS since 1992 when gaining 125+ yards in a game; 3-1 ATS this season and 17-4 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 6.0 yards-per-play. HC Harbaugh is a money making 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SF; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games this season. I don't see the Packers being able to contain the 49er ground attack and I also believe, given the cold temps, the 49ers will use Kaepernick out of the pistol formation far more than in previous games. The other major matchup I see dominated by the 49ers is against Packers rookie LT Bakhtiari, who will be going against either Aldon or Justin Smith. The Packers will use a majority of spread formations, which will leave Bakhtiari on an island. Although he has had a great rookie season, this will be his most difficult assignment this season. Aldon Smith has far too much speed and quickness and Justin Smith can use bull charges to over power Bakhtiari in both run and pass situations. He ranks 72nd in run blocking out of 76 LT in the NFL and this allows the 49ers defensive to 'lean' to the right side of the GB OL to react to run plays. The 49ers are finally back to full health as a team and their depth is superior on both sides of the ball as well. Take the 49ers.
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Wild Card game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. I also like playing this DOG as a combination bet and would suggest an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. The simulator shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and have a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-32 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points/game and after a win by 3 or less points. 42 of the 65 winners also covered by a minimum of 7 points and this underscores my strong belief that the Chargers can win this game. SIM shows that the Chargers ground attack led by Ryan Matthews will be strong and will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, the Chargers are a solid 4-1 ATS this season, 8-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 35-10 ATS since 1996 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards. The matchup that I believe SD will win consistently and one that will lead to their upset victory is the play of the Charger offensive tackles Fluker and Dunlap. In the first game these two teams played, Fluker played LT for the injured Dunlap and Bengals DE Johnson dominated. Fluker struggled mightily at LT, but his return to RT has been some of the best in the NFL. Dunlap is the top-rated run blocker in the NFL despite missing several games and the combination of the duo will be a daunting task for the Bengals defensive front to overcome. Dunlap is fantastic at sealing off defenders to create holes with RB averaging 4.1 YPR on carries to the left side and 7.4 in the left 'B' gap. Johnson is undoubtedly the team leader on defense, but he can't do it alone. Rivers is a smart QB and will be able to select the best matchup on each play and then it comes down to execution. Rivers is completing nearly 75% of his non-pressured passes, tossing 24 touchdowns to only seven interceptions. The major difference in this matchup is that Rivers does much better than Dalton in pressured situations. Further, I see the Chargers being able to get pressure on Dalton far more often than the Bengals will get on Rivers. Rivers has completed 56% of his passes averaging 8.5 yards-pre-pass when pressured. Dalton has completed just 39% of his pressured pass attempts with three TD and 6 picks. Take the Chargers.
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01-03-14 | Clemson +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Orange Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. I normally like using a combination bet when playing a 10* DOG. However, I have only seen a few +125 and I normally require +135 to make a combination wager. The current line is +3 and the line has more of a chance to drop back to 2 1/2 at this point in the afternoon. So, simply play this game as a straight 10* getting the line you are given. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-19 record for 72% winners making 36 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OHIO ST) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 5-1 making 4.6 units/unit wagered. The average play has been a plus 117 DOG, which nearly matches the line for this game. SIM projects that Clemson will score 28 or more points. In past games, Clemson is 11-1 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. They are also a resounding 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Clemson may have been beaten badly by FSU, but they a very quick defense that Ohio State has not seen this season. Ohio State will move the ball, but the Clemson defense will hold up throughout the game. Moreover, I definitely see Clemson having a big night on offense and has the ground attack that can wear down the OSU defensive front. Clemson has had big vertical plays on first down situations after attaining the first down on the ground. Take Clemson.
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01-01-14 | Iowa +8 v. LSU | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the LSU Tigers in the Outback Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections and like my three previous Games of the Year winners, I encourage you to make a combination bet. The ROI favors placing a 9* play on Iowa and a 2.5* play on Iowa using the money line. This is obviously more than the 10* graded amount, but using these combination plays over the course of a full season adds a significant amount to my bottom line. Iowa is a solid 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Ferentz is a solid 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games; 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game; Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand as the coach of LSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-27 mark for just 49% winners, but has made a whopping 55 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system is one of the most powerful money makers I know and has averaged an incredible +305 DOG play. SIM projects that Iowa will gain between 3.5 and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, Iowa is a resounding 25-14 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. Adding to this is the fact that Iowa is a near-perfect 7-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of +220 or less using the money line since 1992. There is no doubt the SEC is a monumentally more difficult conference than the Big Ten. However, based on these teams schedules, Iowa has a modestly more difficult schedule than LSU so statistical comparisons are much more valid in this matchup. The Iowa defense will contain the LSU offense. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation allowing 4.6 yards-per-play, 11th allowing 19.2 PPG, 8th allowing 312 yards-per-game, ninth allowing 6.0 yards-per-pass attempt. I love the matchups that Iowa has on defense and they do have the team speed to make it very difficult for LSU to move the chains and produce time consuming scoring drives. In sum, the Iowa offense is a power running type and will wear down the LSU defensive front. LSU will need at least one safety for run stop purposes and this then opens up play action to exploit man coverage and the best matchup on the field. Take Iowa.
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Boston College as they take on Arizona in the ADOCARE Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. I am goig to add just a 2* piece using the money line in addition to the 120* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?47-52 ,ark for just 48% winners, but has made 47 units/unit wagered since 2007. The average play has been a plus 211 dog. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (BOSTON COLLEGE) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a very powerful system and one that you should write down and store for action next season. This system has gone 8013, BUT has made 2.6 units in profits this season. One of the dominant themes of my 19 years of sports wagering has been leaning on dogs that my research show can cover easily and then have a great shot at winning the game. The majority of plays over this successful season in CFB and NFL have been based mainly on dogs. In fact, my NFC GOY winner +& Minnesota in Week 15, AFC GO+Y winner Colts in Week 16, and NFL GOY winner SF in Week 17 were all dogs that won the game. Now, this is not a game where I would say Game of the Year status, but it is a 10* graded Titan by the SIM. The SIM projects that BC will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards/rush and will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards/play. In past games, BC is a solid 10-3 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; Arizona is just 8-17 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992. Moreover, BC is a solid 16-5 against the money line (+26.2 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992. Take Boston College.
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12-30-13 | Texas +14.5 v. Oregon | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total in this Bowl Game. If you want to step up the wager in case of a major upset, which I do think can happen, I would suggest only a 1.5* amount using the ML with Texas and the 'Under'. Both programs had high aspirations than this Bowl, but it is an opportunity for the Texas program to make changes that will benefit the program for years to come. It took a real man, in Mack Brown, to step down knowing he was under contract through 2020 at $5.0 million per year. He is a great coach, but sometimes changes is a very good thing. he will remain as a consultant to Powers. Oregon has had a very disappointing season and I did have winning plays against them in their two losses. When teams are strong winning streaks and then suddenly are brought down to earth, the entire team questions whether they were really as good as the polls suggested. Texas has the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Jackson Jeffcoat, who had 12 sacks and 21 tackles for losses. He can dominate this game and disrupt the flow of the Oregon offense. Texas did get gutted in several games this season, but I strongly believe they will play a very strong game on the defensive side of the ball. Even more important is the fact that Texas can pound the ball between the tackles and that has been the universal truth in defeating the Ducks. HC Brown is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of Texas; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. Texas is on a very nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons. Take the Longhorns for a 10* play, the 'UNDER" for a 5* play, and a 1.5* optional parlay using Texas on the ML and the 'UNDER'.
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Arizona in a major NFC matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 6 or more points. In the preseason, I had discussed and recommended a play on the 49ers to win the NFC Championship. I have consistently maintained that stance and now believe that play warrants an additional amount and also to place a wager on them to win the Super Bowl. What matters now is this game and obviously I like the 49ers a lot in this matchup. The Arizona Cardinals are one of the top teams in the NFL based on the algorithms and have been steadily climbing up the standings, BUT they will be the best team not in the playoffs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 39-11 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This system is 4-1 ATS this season and 21 of the 39 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points. Harbaugh is a rock solid 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of the 49ers. I do believe the Cardinals know in the back of their minds that Tampa Bay is very unlikely to go into the Super Dome and defeat the Saints, who are 7-0 at home this season. They need to win this game and then need the Bucs to win in order for them to get into the playoffs. SF is in the playoffs already, but they are also playing for a first round BYE and possibly the home field advantage. Both teams bring excellent run stop units with Arizona ranked first allowing 84.5 yards per game and SF ranking 5th allowing 97 YPG. Frank Gore is the only back in the NFL to gain more than 100 yards against the Arizona unit. In that game SF piled up 138 rushing yards and 95 pf them were after contact. The SF OL has had another great season based on their overall grades, but have fallen off from the incredible 2012 seasons. Their pass blocking grades match that of last year. As a result Gore is averaging 4.2 YPC versus 4.8 YPC in 2012 still quite good. The true difference between these teams is the SF offense that ranks fifth posting a 0.425 points per play ratio and third averaging 141.2 rushing yards per game. The run-pass presence of Kaepernick is hard to defend and he ranks 9th in the NFL averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt. And then there is the matchup nightmare TE Vernon Davis brings to this game. Arizona's Achilles heel is defending the TE this season. In last week's win over Seattle Zach Miller had an excellent day and scored their only TD. Davis had his best game in the first game against Arizona this season with 8 catches, 180 yards and two TD. With safety/slot corner extraordinaire Mathieu out for the year, that will leave Arizona without an important piece in their coverage schemes, so Davis will be matchup often and will line up as WR on both sides of the ball at times. Davis leads the NFL with 11 catches of 20+ yards, which is four more than any other TE in the league. The only Cardinal that can stay with him is Peterson, but then he gives up tremendous size and also leaves Crabtree then to be running wild. This will also spread the Cardinals defense allowing quick traps and misdirections out of the pistol and shot gun formations. Kaepernick will have fundamentally easy reads to make presnap and they will get formations set to exploit the best possible matchup. Take the 49ers.
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12-27-13 | Washington v. BYU +4 | Top | 31-16 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* graded play on BYU as they take on Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. I like using dogs like this in a combination bet utilizing the line and money line to our advantage. In this game, the money line is getting inflated due to the public exuberance of Washington. I am seeing ML at +170 at many books right now. So, I will be playing this as an 8.5* amount using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line for an 11* Total amount. I am essentially adding 10* risk to the 10* play, but getting paid pack 70% on that added risk. It's even higher if you calculate the ROI on a base of the 8.5* play. BYU HC Mendenhall is one of the best preparers in the nation and his records reflect this work. He is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage between 60% to 75% as the coach of BYU; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. BYU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 mark for 72% winners and has made 34.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) that are excellent rushing teams gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 4-1 making 3.6 units this season and 13-5 making 10 units the past three seasons. I really like the BYU defensive matchup against Washington. They rank 20th in the nation allowing 22.1 PPG, 12th posting a 0.276 points-per-play allowed ratio, 35th allowing 3.8 RYPC, and 19th allowing 6.4 PYPA. Take BYU.
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12-27-13 | Syracuse +4 v. Minnesota | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Minnesota in the Texas Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like using a combination bet placing an 8* amount using the line and a 3* amount using the money line for an 11* amount play. The respective ground attacks will determine the winner of this game. The SIM shows that Syracuse will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards and Minnesota will be averaging 4.0 to 4.5 yards-per-rush. Both teams have solid rushing attacks, but Syracuse will have a greater yards-per-carry and have a vastly better passing attack than Minnesota. What I see as a dominant theme will be when Syracuse uses play action where receivers, especially on the perimeter, will be in man coverage. Minnesota's defense will be forced to respect the pass and this will spread the field opening up larger gaps for the ground attack. In past games, Syracuse is a solid 34-12 against the money line (+28.5 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Minnesota is just 8-22 against the money line (-31.1 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Minnesota struggled offensively in the first-half of their 14-3 loss at Michigan State. You can bet that the Syracuse staff has been studying that game film extensively and will utilize every scheme they can with their personnel that MSU used to completely dominate Minnesota's ground attack. HC Kill is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Syracuse.
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12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10* graded play on Utah State as they take on Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah State (US) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-8 record and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (N ILLINOIS) and is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG, and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in three straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 42-19 for 69% winners since 2002 and has made 26 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH ST) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games and in a non-conference tilt. Utah State played a vastly more difficult schedule than NI has this season. That stuffer competition is a huge advantage for Utah State and a large negative one for NI. They are led by Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch, but he alone will not be enough to overcome the stout Utah State defense. Further, NI lost to Bowling Green in the MAC conference Championship Game December 6. Losses of this magnitude have highly negative impacts on teams that were on long and extended winning streaks, especially losses that end BCS Bowl hopes. The US defense ranks 8th in the nation allowing 18.2 PPG, 18th allowing 348 offensive yards, 7th posting a 0.237 points-per-play ratio, third allowing just 2.8 rushing yards per attempt, and 21st allowing 54% completions. NI has simply not faced a tougher opponent all season that what they will see from US in the form of team speed, athleticism, and power. Take Utah State.
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -6 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?85-38 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2008. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points. BG hammered NI in the MAC Championship game, which was one of my 10* Titan winners. They are a team that is as strong as they showed in the game and come into this bowl game with tons of confidence and motivation to win. SIM shows they will score 28+ points, will gain between 9.0 and 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; and will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In past games, Pitt is just 0-4 ATS this season and 1-12 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points; BG is 6-1 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 9.0 to 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; 8-1 ATS and 15-1 ATS the last three seasons when scoring 28+ points; 4-0 ATS this season and 6-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 150 and 200 rushing yards. Take Bowling Green
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12-24-13 | Oregon State v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on Boise State as they take on Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BS will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning this bowl game. Given this favorable projection, I would recommend a combination bet using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the Money Line ONLY if you get at least +135 on the money line. This may require a move to 3 1/2 on the line, which is quite possible given today's steady flow of bets by the public on ISU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 45-19 mark for 70.3% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BOISE ST) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. I think the biggest factor in this game is the lack of confidence the OSU team must have entering this game. They have lost five straight games after going 6-1 to start the season. They played very well against Oregon installed as 24 point dog sand losing by just one. But again, this is another heart breaking loss and I am just not sure how much is left in the tank. This will be fast paced style of game which also leads to an increased amount of turnovers. The SIM projects that OSU will have at least three turnovers; that BS will win the turnover battle. In past games, BS is a solid 20-1 against the money line (+19.5 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992; 2-16 against the money line (-15.9 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992. There is another projection calling for BSU to score 28+ points. OSU is just 17-70 against the money line (-65.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Boise State. Most importantly, I want to wish ALL of you a Blessed and Merry Christmas.
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. San Francisco 49ers -14 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This will be the last game ever played at Candle Stick Park and the atmosphere will be even more supportive for a 49er route in this matchup. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 17 or more points. SF is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) facing weak defensive teams allowing >=375 yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) facing defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Head Coach Harbaugh is a rock solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) facing vulnerable passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of San Francisco. SIM projects that SF will gain more than 6.0 yards-per-play; will gain more than 125 rushing yards and will have between 350 and 400 total offensive yards. In past games, SF is 4-0 ATS this season and 11-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 350 to 400 total offensive yards; 2-0 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS the past three seasons when gaining more than 6.0 yards-per-play; 5-1 ATS this season and 16-6 ATS the last three seasons when rushing for more than 125 yards; Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS this season and 8-19 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 6.0 or more yards-per-play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. Play against underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and when playing on Monday night. It stands to reason, that SF will have solid and quite favorable matchups across the LOS and on both sides of the ball. Take San Francisco.
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12-22-13 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers -9 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they host the Oakland Raiders in AFC West action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by 13 or more points. Chargers still have slim playoff hopes for securing the second Wild Card, but they will need help with losses from Baltimore and Miami. Both of them could lose today, but the Chargers know a 2-0 end to the season is a must and focusing on this game first is a MUST. SD defense has really come on the month of December and overall they rank 10th allowing 22.2 PPG. Oakland ranks just 26th scoring 21.1 PPG and 26th in third-down conversions. SD offense ranks 4th getting 6.0 YPP and will find it easy to move the chains against the Raiders defense ranking 22nd allowing 5.6 YPP. The Raiders secondary will have massive troubles defending Keenan Allen. He has posted 55 receptions for 821 yards and seven touchdowns. Extrapolated over a 16 game season, that
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Indianapolis Colts as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Colts will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and also have a great shot at getting a very important win with significant consequences for both teams. Given these favorable projections, and like the Minnesota Vikings NFC Game of the Year play, I encourage you to consider making a 9* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. This adds up to 12* totals, but enhances the total return on investment (ROI) in a disciplined manner taking advantage of the strength of this Top rated 10* Titan. The SIM shows that the Colts will be able to move the ball and score between 22 and 28 points. IN past games, the Colts are a solid 4-1 ATS this season and are 11-3 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring between 22 and 28 points. Colts are a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-26 mark using the Money Line for 66% winners and has made 30 units per unit wagered since 1983. Play on any team using the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. Chiefs offense has certainly come to life in recent weeks, but it has been against vastly inferior foes. However, they rank 5th worst with 35 WR dropped passes this season. Smith is very good at not forcing the ball into tight spots where deflections and turnovers can happen. His disciplined style, though, limits the offensive play calling against a pretty darn good Colts defense. The KC defense is quite good, but I do believe the Colts will be able to run the ball well enough to allow Lock to them have opportunities in play action situations. Donald Brown has the fourth highest 'elusive rating' and averages a very strong 3.24 yards after contact. KC corners have been tested and have had very poor gradings in recent weeks. Flowers has been targeted the most at 1 target per 5.1 snaps. He has allowed a career high 818 yards. This is attributed to his new role of being the slot defender and not a shut down corner. Sean Smith is on the other side of the field and like last season, started out very strong, but is again starting to tail off late in the season with a -6.0 grading over the past 6 weeks. With the Colts being able to force KC to respect the run, it will open up huge passing opportunities for Luck in play action as outlined above. Take the Colts.
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. As many of you know, Minnesota was my NFC Game of the Year winner and they destroyed the Eagles 48-30 as 6 1/2 point dogs. Now, they face a Bengals team looking to secure their playoff position - as did the Eagles. I really like how the Vikings continue to play very hard despite having a lost season under their belt. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2002. This system has gone 2-0 ATS this season and is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) average passing team averaging between 185and 230 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 185 and 230 PYPG after 8+ games of the regular season has been played and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Lewis is just Lewis is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of the Bengals. Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons. Bengals just 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Most people forget that QB Cassel was a starter and a very good one just a few seasons back. He ranks first in the NFL throwing the deep ball (passes greater than 20 yards) with those long balls accounting for 14.4% of all pass attempts he has thrown. He ranks first in the NFL completing 53% of these vertical throws. Last week, Cassel was 4-of-5 on his deep passes, accounting for 39.8% of his total yardage and a big portion of his positive grade. While it wasn
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12-21-13 | USC -6 v. Fresno State | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
10* graded play on University of Southern California as they take on Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 8 or more points. FSU lost just one game this season, but by comparison played a vastly inferior schedule to teams in the PAC-12. QB Carr had a n excellent season throwing for a nation-best 406 passing yards, 48 TD and just 7 INT. USC has the defensive personnel to contain this aerial assault. The opposite will be true about the FSU defense NOT containing the USC offense. SIM projects that USC will score between 35 and 41 points and will gain at least 450 offensive yards. In past games, USC is 2-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 450 and 500 offensive yards. FSU is just 0-2 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 9-24 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent to score between 35 and 41 points. Speed will be the evident and most dominant force from the Trojans, especially on defense. I had mentioned the vast difference in SOS between these two teams. FSU has never faced a team with the speed, athleticism, and physicality that USC will bring to this game. Nor can FSU simulate that speed in practice sessions and I strongly believe that it will overwhelming to FSU and will be most evident on their OL attempting to block USC in b.itz pack situations. We are all fully aware of the coaching 'situations' at USC. They are all unfortunate, but now interim HC Clay Helton will have this team focused and looking to play a very strong game. Take the USC Trojans.
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they host the Baltimore Ravens in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game by 9 or more points. It is painfully obvious the ramifications for the loser of this game tonight. With Miami defeating the Patriots, the AFC playoff picture has been clouded even more and the losses by the Cowboys and Eagles combined with the unreal win over Dallas by the Packers has made the NFC North extremely uncertain. Both teams can control their own destiny by winning out, but in this season of inconsistent play, it is very unlikely that either team can win out. What truly matters is tonight's game and Detroit can take a major step forward with a win. In fact, with Chicago and the Packers (Rogers will most assuredly play), the Lions also take a huge step backward with a loss. Ok, enough of the scenarios and let's take a look at a few of the matchups I see leading Detroit to a win. The Lions OL has done a great job this season protecting fifth-year starter Stafford. There are 29 QB, who have been sacked more than him and only Peyton manning has been sacked less. Stafforfd ash improved immensely with his release time and that ahs also contributed to the sound protection. Of the entire group of players on the OL including TE, none have graded below -10 for the season. Riley Reiff has allowed five sacks, but that is over 550 pass block situations on the season. So, I don't see Baltimore being able to get pressure on Stafford and he will be getting the ball out quickly once again. Making matters far worse for the Ravens defense is limiting Calvin Johnson, who leads all receivers with 12 TD and is second with 1348 yards. Ravens will use a mix of Webb, Smith, and Graham in defending Johnson. Graham normally lines up on the left side and this is the matchup Stafford will look to get for Johnson. Graham is a gambling defender that has allowed 7 TD, but has gotten 3 INT. The worst possible defender against Johnson is a gambler, because Johnson has superior speed, size, and uses his body perfectly in shielding a defender from the ball. Many teams have attempted a bracket zone against Johnson and that has failed miserably. This tactic gives Johnson the opportunity to catch short passes and in the add significant yards after the catch because he is so hard to bring down in space. Detroit is a solid 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after being outgained by 200 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Lions.
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +6.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that they will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at upsetting the Saints. I like making this play using a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line for a total of 11* amount wagered. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-9 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2002. Play against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) after a win by 14 or more points and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Here is an exceptional money line system that has hit 60% winners for a 25-17 mark and has averaged a +190 Dog Play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off 2 or more consecutive unders and is an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. Rams DE Robert Quinn grades as the best one in the NFL in pass rush. He has an extremely quick first step and gets leverage underneath slower tackles. He also makes it impossible for any tackle to anticipate what direction his path to the QB will originate from pre-snap. Brees is excellent at reading the field and extending plays, however Quinn will force him to throw to his first read. The Saints OL is going to have a tough day giving Brees enough time to get plays made, to keep him being pressured, and to keep him upright. Take the Rams.
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +6.5 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the KC Chiefs in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than four points and have a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. This system has gone 10-1 ATS over the past three years. I strongly believe the Raider defense will play very well and will hold KC to 21 or fewer points. In past games where the Raiders have held an opponent to 15 to 21 points, they are 3-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. Charles is a top-5 RB this season. The majority of his rushing yards have been off tackle where he has averaged 6.0 YPC off left tackle and 5.8 YPC off right tackle. The weakness on the Raiders defensive front is the interior and their biggest strengths are on the perimeter. I really like ho Raider QB McGloin has played. He has averaged just 2.65 seconds to pass release compared with a league worst by Pryor at 3.47 seconds. McGloin has been sacked on just 8% of snaps which ranks best among 40 qualifying QB. Take Oakland.
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This is my Game of the Year in the NFC. It is another 10* grading, but there are fundamental matchups that I live a ton and given the success we have enjoyed again this season, adding a responsible amount is a solid strategy. This does not mean that you suddenly bet beyond your means or bet significantly more than the usual 10* amount. I will suggest playing this as a 15* amount, which is 1.5x your normal play. Here is another alternative way to make this play. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and have a shot at winning the game as well. Given the favorable projections, I suggest playing this as a 12* play using the line and adding a 3* amount using the money line. Vikings are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects that no matter, who the Vikings RB is for this game, the team will average between 4.5 and 5.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, when they have allowed this range of rushing yards, the Eagles are 0-6 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-43 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (PHILADELPHIA) after scoring 30 points or more in their last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Here is a second system that has gone 37-13 ATS for 74^ winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) with a struggling first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 3 or less points. We all know what happened last week in the two snow storm games these teams played. Philadelphia needed 3 1/2 quarters to get their offense untracked in horrific conditions and the Vikings were part of an unreal ending in Baltimore losing by 3 points where the teams combined for 5 TD in the last 2 minutes of play on a truly frozen tundra. Chris Cook and rookie Xavier Rhodes have the abilities to cover well and force Foles into looking to the second and third reads. Foles has been excellent this season and is a dominant reason the Eagles lead the NFC East after a 1-3 start. However, he has had negative grades in his last two games and when forced to go through his progressions, he is making a lot more dangerous throws than in the beginning of their five-game win streak. Rhodes is allowing a reception every 10.3 snaps and allowing a quite strong 78.3 QB rating on passes thrown his way. Foles has averaged 3.08 seconds to release while previous QB Vick was taking 3.38 seconds. This quicker release is the major reason Foles has been so effective, but when forced to hold the ball longer than 3.08 seconds, his effectiveness declines sharply. McCoy is coming off a franchise record rushing day and leads the NFL in rushing. Containing McCoy will certainly take a total team effort, but there are many players on the Minnesota defense that will be able to keep the Eagle running game in check. Defensive tackle, Kevin Williams, has been disruptive and will to eat up blocks preventing the interior of the Eagles line from getting to second level blocks. This has the key to the Eagles' ground game success. Williams ranks 37th among defensive tackles run stop percentage, but Minnesota is even better as a defensive unit with him taking on blocks so the linebackers are free to make the stops on ball carriers. Gerhart will be the likely starter for the Vikings. In limited opportunities he has proven to be tough to take down this year. In his 49 touches he has forced 16 missed tackles, easily one of the best ratios in the league. This will set up play action for Matt Cassell, who has done a great job in the last two games. The Vikings have shown no signs of quitting despite losing the season. Take the Vikings.
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12-14-13 | Army +13 v. Navy | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Army Cadets as they take on the Navy Midshipmen in the annual rivalry competing for the Commander-In-Chief trophy. I am looking for the cover in this matchup and strongly believe this is just too many points to be giving Army, who desperately wants to erase the 11-year Navy domination. The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. There are several coaching situational trends that support a play on Army. HC Ellerson is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. HC Niumatalolo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-15 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play on any team (ARMY) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 YPR, and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. No secret, Army runs the ball more than 80% of all plays. They rank first in the nation averaging 61 rushing plays per game and first averaging 329 rushing yards per game. Navy ranks 85th allowing 192 rushing yards per game. Navy runs the ball a ton too, ranking second with 59 rushing plays per game and third averaging 319 rushing yards per game. Navy has a very poor secondary and San Jose State ripped them up for 440 passing yards on 42-for56 passing. I'm not saying for a minute that Army will suddenly becoming a spread passing offense. I am stating that there will be opportunities to throw the ball off the 'read' fakes essentially play action. Army has shown this tendency in their recent four game stretch. In their last game they threw 21 times and had their passing yards of the season with 152. I strongly believe that Army will throw the ball just enough to force Navy to respect it and this in turn will open up larger alleys for the Army RB to dart through. Take Army.
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -10 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by at least 13 points. SIM projects that Denver will amass a mini9mum of 450 offensive yards and score at least 28 points. In past games, Denver is 7-4 ATS this season, 20-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons, and 100-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28+ points. Denver is also 4-1 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining more than 450 offensive yards. SD is just 3-11 ATS over the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points. Moreover, SD is just 2-11 L3 seasons when allowing more than 8.0 net passing yards per attempt and in the same role, Denver is a stout 15-2 ATS. SD ranks 11th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 PPG, but they rank 28th allowing 383 YPG. They are dead last in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards-per-play, 31st allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, and 31st allowing 79. passing yards per attempt. I strongly believe Denver will look to establish the run game first and then look to play action targeting D. Thomas on the perimeter, who will be in man coverage. The SD secondary is in a big-time mismatch at nearly every level and Thomas represents the most glaring. I just do not see Rivers and their offense being able to keep pace Denver on the scoreboard. Further, with Denver being able to run the ball more tonight than in previous games will allow them an even greater advantage in TOP. When you have the NFL top-rated offense combined with TOP edge, it is a mountain that no team can overcome. Take Denver.
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on Chicago in a significant MNF showdown set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2007. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) that is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. SIM shows a projecting call for the Dallas offense to be in strong form tonight and that they will average 5.5 to 6.0 yards-per-play. In past games, the Bears are 0-4 ATS this season and 1-8 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play. Bears are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They will be retiring Mike Ditka's jersey tonight and the fans will be fire up, but it is not near enough to offset the Bear's injuries. The Cowboys secondary has been a severe weakness at times this season. Brandon Carr has been the constant on this unit and has become a solid coverage defender. The Bears have two very strong targets in Marshall and Jeffery and the Cowboys secondary MUST and WILL be highly successful defending the vertical route. McCown will be under center for the Bears and has done a solid job backing up Cutler. I believe that Morris Claiborne is battling just too many injuries and may not play tonight. Dallas will use a myriad of coverage looks pre-snap to change up McCown's reads and will bate him to mistakes. The other facet of this game is that Romo and the offense will control the tempo of the game and will have a decided edge in TOP. Here is the most dominant matchup in this game. DeMarco Murray is Averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry tied for fourth-best in the league and has 25 forced-missed tackles (10th best). He will be called upon more than usual for two reasons; backup Dunbar's season-ending injury last week, and Chicago
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2 | Top | 17-19 | Push | 0 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
10* graded play on the SF 49ers and a 10* play 'OVER' the [posted total in the big showdown with Seattle in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 6 or more points and there will be a minimum of 45 points scored. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest playing an extra 3* parlay with the 49ers and the 'over' DO NOT play teasers of any kind, especially the three-team 10 point varieties. It may seem a gift to get these lines using the teaser formats, but TRUST me, they are not and are nothing but money burners over the course of a season. HC Harbaugh is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level t winning > 75% of their games in the second half of the season as the coach of SF. Two of the best defenses are featured in this game and that is why the total has been set low by lines makers correctly anticipating the public love of the 'under' in this game. Seattle ranks second in scoring offense and SF 10th. This is where the matchups favor scoring, especially by the 49ers. Despite being the second-best scoring offense, Seattle has a very avergae offensive line with all of them grading modestly negatively for the season. Giacomini has had three nightmare games against the 49ers and I don't see that changing one bit given the very strong play of the SF defensive front of Smith, McDonald, and Dorsey. Wilson has been fantastic in play action, but with the running game not getting untracked, he will need to make plays on his own. Both Wilson and Kaepernick throw deep covering more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on more than 15% of their attempts. Kaepernick uses plenty of play action involving 28.3% of his attempts. The difference in his effectiveness with and without play action is striking. With play action, Kaepernick completes 60.5% of his passes, has eight touchdowns, one interception, averages 8.5 yards per attempt, and has a QB Rating of 113.3. Without play action, his completion percentage drops to 56.7%, he
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12-08-13 | Cleveland Browns +10.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the New England Patriots in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Cleveland has a very good and vastly under rated defensive unit that ranks first in the NFL allowing just 4.4 yards-per-play and 4th allowing 307 yards-per-game. For the Patriots, Blount took the majority of the snaps as the
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12-08-13 | Miami Dolphins +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - average passing team posting between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Antonio Brown has been a huge part of the Steeler offense, but this week the Steelers will be forced to look elsewhere with the presence of Grimes at CB. Grimes is one of the best CB in the NFL and has allowed a passer rating of just 62.6 and has defending 17 passes with 4 INT. He line sup nearly always on the left side so the Steelers will have the option of moving Brown to the other side of the field. Yet, if the Steelers elect to do this, it is in effect eliminating half the field of play due to the presence of Grimes taking it away. This will allow the rest of the 10 defenders to 'lean' to that right side when Brown is on the opposite side of Grimes. It also allows the run defense to shift to their left where the Steelers have run the majority of the time behind RG DeCastro. Miami has the two of the best interior run stoppers in Starks and Soliai, so just in these two matchups, the Pittsburgh offense has their two best options minimized. Take Miami.
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12-07-13 | Stanford v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Stanford in the PAC-12 Championship set to start at 7:45 PM ET in Tempe Arizona. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 6 or more points. One of the key matchups in this game is the veteran ASU defensive front going up against Stanford RB Gaffney. I strongly believe that the ASU defense will dominate the Stanford OL and contain Gaffney's play making abilities. Another matchup and arguably the most dominant one is the ASU passing attack against the Stanford secondary. ASU ranks 7th in scoring offense at 42 PPG and 26th averaging 278 passing yards per game. The Cardinal secondary has allowed 254 passing yards per game ranking them 93rd in the nation. Sun Devil Stadium is a graveyard for many teams including the elite ones. ASU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; HC Graham is a near-perfect 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus solid rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Arizona State.
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12-07-13 | Texas +16.5 v. Baylor | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. There is a ton of pressure squarely on the Baylor football team from all of the media hype about the opportunity to win a conference championship for the first time since 1990 and to win their final home game at their 63-year old Floyd Cast Stadium. Texas also has a shot at a BCS bid with an upset win in this game. I seriously doubt if either coach will allow their team to be watching the scoreboard for the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State showdown. Both teams need Oklahoma to win. That game starts at Noon and will nearing or will already be completed by this game time. The fans will know and that will obviously then be known by the teams. In either outcome, it will put even more pressure on Baylor and is only adding modestly to a mountain of Baylor high expectations. Baylor has the top scoring offense in the nation and is challenging the all-time records set by Army in 1944. Scoring differential is one record that the 1944 Army team will concede to the FSU Seminoles. Baylor defense has allowed 24.1 PPG ranking 36th in the nation and I positively love the Texas matchups. The Texas defense is vastly better than during the first four games where in one of those games they allowed a horrid 550 rushing yards to BYU. Baylor was hammered by Oklahoma State two weeks ago and barely got by TCU, which was one of my Top Rated 108 winners. The matchups favor a line closer to Baylor being favored by 8 points and what is not being considered is how physically and psychologically damaging the OSU loss was on this team. Texas I splaying their best football right now and are a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Take Texas.
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12-07-13 | Oklahoma +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like playing this as 10* play using the line and adding a 1* amount using the ML - just in case the apparently improbable upset occurs. A Cowboys win in Stillwater would clinch a share of the conference title along with the Baylor-Texas winner and send them to a Bowl Championship Series game for the second time in three years. But as Lee Corso loves say, 'not so fast'. In media interviews this week, the Oklahoma players were unanimous and sometimes appeared offended when asked if they enjoyed the role of spoiler in the Bedlam matchup. This is far more about bragging rights then causing OSU to miss out on a BCS game. The key to this matchup is that I strongly believe that the Sooner defense will contain the Cowboy offense and it will start with run stops. Cowboys offense ranks a dismal 70th in the nation converting just 39% of their third down conversions this season. Sooner defense ranks 15th allowing opponents to convert 34% of their third down situations. Stopping the Cowboys on first down sets up the Sooners then to get three-and-outs and get off the field. I also like the Sooners ground attack and here again, this allows for success on first downs and sets up play action to play makers on the perimeter in man coverages. Supporting the play is a MONEY LINE system that has gone 23-16 and has made a whopping 37 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Take the Sooners.
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to upset Northern Illinois. Given this favorable projection and the fact that the line has gone from 3 to 4 1/2, I suggest playing this as a 9* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. Bowling Green was 5-3 and then ripped off four impressive wins to get to 9-3 and earn the right to play in the MAC Championship game. Two of these wins were against inferior foes Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, but the other two were romps against solid opponents in Ohio University (49-0) and Buffalo just last week. In that game against Buffalo, BG won 24-7 and easily covered as 3 1/2 point road favorites. They outgained Buffalo by 259 yards and held them to just 15 rushing yards on 24 carries. BG is a stout 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after outgaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has a very strong defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing 14.4 PPG, 6th allowing 295 yards-per-game, 5th posting a 0.224 opponent points per play, and 3rd allowing 5.5 opponent yards per pass. Moreover, during this win streak, they have not allowed any team to gain more than 100 rushing yards. This is a defense that can shut down Northern Illinois and their QB Jordan Lunch. Take Bowling Green.
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 106 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will win this game tonight and get their fourth win of the season. I publish a weekly Power Ratings Quotient sheet, which provides sports handicappers are solid starting point in generating some specific ideas for bets on the current week's card. In the previous matchup, the Jags won 13-7 for their second win and they are now a solid 3-1 since their Week 9 BYE week. In that game, JJ Watt posted one of the best grades EVER by a DE. The Jags still won the game. Houston QB Keenam has the ability to throw the deep ball and does so many times on a roll out. However, the JAX secondary is turning in a solid season. John Cyprien has played inspired coverage since the BYE week grading well in all four games and the return of form of coverage man Dwayne Gratz has been a huge boost. Look for Cecil Shorts to have a big game and perhaps his best game of the season. Houston will brig pressure and give Watts every opportunity sack, pressure, or hurry Henne. However, Henne has proved to be a very competent QB when getting the ball out quickly. he will have a significant matchup advantage targeting Shorts on hook and slant routes throughout this game. Let's not forget Maurice Jones-Drew either as he is coming off solid performances in recent weeks. His ability to run the ball will open the passing game even further for Henne in play action situations. Houston is a money burning 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Yet, I just outlined, that Jax is a vastly improved team since Week 9. Take Jacksonville.
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints +5.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Sainst/Seahawks.
10* graded play on the New Orleans Saints as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Saints will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent opportunity to win the game. I also have a 10* graded play 'UNDER'. This sets up a very rare and potentially big money maker for us tonight. I suggest playing this as two separate 10* plays and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line and the 'under' for a parlay. Never consider doing teasers. It is a books biggest money maker and they are impossible to hit over time. So, take my advice on that and simply choose not to play teasers. Seattle has been great defending the pass, but Jimmy Graham presents some very tough matchups for them tonight. The former-third rounder leads all tight ends in yards (946), targets (95), catches (65), and TD catches (11). He won a battle against Arizona DB Peterson, who is arguably the fastest and quickest player in the league. The only game where he was stifled was against the Patriots where they used Talib to cover him on every down. Just the presence of Graham creates opportunities all over the field for Brees to setup. The Seattle defense will be without starter Browner and backup Thurmond leaving 2011 sixth-rounder Maxwell to fill the void. Marshon Lynch against the Saints defensive front is another key matchup. The Saints run defense has allowed only two 100+ rushers in Chris Ivory and Doug martin this season. They also rank 6th in the NFL allowing just 6.1 passing yards per pass play. They have tackled in space extremely well and limited yards after the catch. This game will take on a chess match of sorts with field position being valued much more than vertical risk taking. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?82-40 mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (SEATTLE) after a game where they forced four or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Supporting the 'UNDER" play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) and is an excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Payton is a rock solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing very good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of the Saints. |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the St. Lois Rams in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 10 or more points. Here are some supporting game situations. Rams are just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992; SF is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; Rams are just 10-28 ATS (-20.8 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Rams HC Fisher is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992; Harbaugh is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SF. Crabtree is back making his 2013 debut and he will be gradually worked into the scheme. However, he provides yet another weapon for Kaepernick to target, which opens up more space for the power running game of Gore and ball possession pass plays to Davis. SIM projects that Kaepernick will average 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Rams are just 1-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS the last three seasons when allowing that 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In the same manner, the SF are a 5-0 ATS this season and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining 8.0 or more net passing yards. Take the 49ers.
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12-01-13 | Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles with huge playoff implications for both teams. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Eagles are coming off the BYE week and need to win to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys. JHC Chip Kelly named Foles his starting QB and now there is the added pressure for the offense to perform well to avoid having the reemergence of the QB debate take hold again. Arizona has the 7th best defensive unit in the NFL and will be by far the best defense Foles will see in more than a month. Arizona is on a four game win streak and scoring 27 PPG during this run. One of the best matchups for Arizona is DB Peterson going up against Desean Jackson. Peterson is one of the few DB that will follow the opponent's best receiver no matter where he lines up. Jackson has tremendous speed and has been able to beat DB and zones with that speed. however, Peterson is on the fastest players in the NFL and his closing speed is second to none. I strongly believe that Peterson will minimize Jackson's impact. QB Palmer is going to have extra time to throw the ball and get through his progressions as the Eagles have been largely inconsistent in the pass rush department. Arizona defense ranks 4th allowing 4.8 yards-per-play and I do strongly believe they can and will contain one of the best offenses in the NFL. Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. This system is 3-1 ATS this season and 13-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Arizona.
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11-30-13 | Clemson v. South Carolina -3 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on the South Carolina as they take on Clemson in a huge CFBN game set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game by 5 or more points. Let's take a look at some of the game situations. Spurrier is a solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SC; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line and has made 44 units/unit wagered since 1992 and has averaged a +111 DOG play. When isolating just slight favorites this system has done remarkably well posting a 27-11 mark. I will not be playing this game as a ML wager, but it you are a ML player, then I strongly believe that is a good move as the risk-reward profile and ROI is excellent. Here is a second ML system that has gone 33-5 for 87% winners since 1992 and is 5-0 this season. Play on a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG and after a win by 35 or more points. The word is preparation for this matchup and no one prepares better for big games than Spurrier. His record speaks for itself and I am confident he will have his team ready to play their best game this season. Take the Gamecocks.
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11-30-13 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game and taking the points is an added gift. I believe there is a possibility this line could lift to four during the day. This will also move the money line to a favorable level to execute a combination bet. I would suggest playing a 10* play on the line and then adding a 2* amount using the money line on Kentucky. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-36 mark using the money line for 58% winners and has made a whopping 49 units/unit wagered averaging a +180 DOG play since 1992. It is 2-0 making 3.0 units this season. Play against a road team using the money line (TENNESSEE) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less and is now facing an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. This system is a remarkable 10-2 making 18.4 units/unit wagered over the last three seasons. The Kentucky offense has sputtered all season, but it has been against SEC foe. Now, they have a shot at getting the offense rolling against a very poor Tennessee defensive unit. The SIM shows that Kentucky will score 28 or more points. In past games, Tennessee is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
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11-30-13 | Baylor v. TCU +14.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
10* graded play on TCU as they take on Baylor in Big 12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like making this a 10* play using the line and adding a 1.5* amount using the money line. Oklahoma State has showed the 'recipe' used to defeat Baylor and you can bet that TCU will have watched that game film extensively. TCU has the secondary to challenge BU's offense, much like OSU did, so think twice before automatically slotting this game into Baylor's win column. Every season, there are a few teams that come out of nowhere to reach BCS Bowl considerations. Then there is the one game that ends the dream and it is then very difficult for that team to finish the season strong. The reason is confidence. Baylor had been playing with immense confidence until getting hammered by Oklahoma State. Now, the mindset of the team is that we were not really as good as we thought we were and that is extremely difficult for any coaching staff to over come. TCU is a stout 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992; 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. HC Patterson is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games after a bye week as the coach of TCU. TCU ranks 12th in the nation allowing 3.2 yards per rush and ranks 14th allowing just 52% pass completions. TCU may have a losing record, but their team matches up very well against the one-loss Baylor Bears, who are still trying to believe what happened to them last week against Oklahoma State. Take TCU.
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11-29-13 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
10* graded play on San Jose State as they host Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SJS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to post an upset win. Given these favorable projections, I suggest playing it as a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. With Carr under center for the Bulldogs and SJS riddled with injuries, you would think that FSU will easily win this game, especially knowing they have been passed by Northern Illinois as the top non-automatic qualifying candidate for one of the top postseason games. However, this is a true rivalry game and although it never gets the media attention that say, the Iron Bowl does, it is still filled with very hard and spirited play - especially by the so-called underdogs, who have something to prove. The public is all over FSU for these and other reasons. In fact, the level of irrational exuberance has reached bettering extremes with more than 81% of all bets being placed on FSU. Of the 12 books I track, when ever the level reaches 71% it is a red flag and becomes increasingly more irrational the higher the percentage reaches. This technical tool serves ONLY to reinforce the grading by the SIM and by itself is never a reason that I would make a play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?66-36 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2008. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. One of the keys to this game will be the ability of SJS to establish a ground game. The SIM projects they will and will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, SJS is 7-1 ATS when rushing for 125 to 150 yards over the last three seasons. The SIM also projects that FSU will allow 450 to 500 total offensive yards and in past games when allowing this range, they are just 7-26 ATS since 1992. Here is a money line system that has produced a 16-10 mark making 27.4 units/unit wagered and has averaged a +235 dog play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (SAN JOSE ST) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and after 7+ games and after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Take San Jose State.
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11-29-13 | Texas State +7 v. Troy | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas State as they take on Troy in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at getting the upset win. Given these favorable projections, I always like taking advantage of an additional Money Line play as long as the Return-on-investment (ROI) warrants. In this case, the ROI is quite favorable so I suggest playing a 10* amount using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Texas State is 6-5 and bowl eligible, but obviously adding this win at Veterans Memorial Stadium would certainly heighten bowl interest. TS is just 2-4 in conference play and truly needs this win over a 3-3 conference Troy team. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-14 mark for 81% winners using the money line since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (TEXAS ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and with a winning record on the season playing a losing record team. I truly love the ground attack of TS matched up against the Troy run stop scheme. TS runs the ball 60% of the time and averages 158 rushing yards per game. This will set up play action for TS where the Troy secondary has been strugglign all season. Take Texas State.
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys -9.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Oakland Raiders in NFL action set to start at 4:30 PM ET, Thanksgiving Day. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Although Dallas has struggled to get even a two-game winning streak this season, those chances all happened on the road. They are coming off a big-time momentum booster defeating division rival NY last Sunday and now have a great opportunity to get two straight wins against a Raider team that has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. Dallas ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 27.1 PPG and they will be going up against a Raider defense that has allowed 66% completions that ranks 27th in the NFL. The one matchup that I strongly believe will be dominated by the Dallas defensive front is stopping the Raiders ground attack. The season stats would say otherwise, but the Cowboy defensive front played their best game of the season against the Giants. They were humiliated by the Saints and the week off during the BYE was a great period for the team to work on what was going wrong. Dallas is getting better, not yet the defense we thought they might have at the beginning of the season, and Romo is playing at a very high level. Stopping the Raiders ground attack will be the first priority with the second being able to establish a three-score or more lead. I strongly believe they accomplish both. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?39-17 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on favorites (DALLAS) that is a struggling defensive team allowing >=370 YPG and is now facing an equally poor defensive team allowing between 335 to 370 YPG with the current game being played after 8+ games. This underscores my beliefs above, in that Dallas' defense is playing vastly better right now, than their season stats have indicate. Oakland has not shown any improvement. Take Dallas.
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Washington in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Several game situations support the 49ers with an easy cover tonight. They are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons. HC Harbaugh is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play. Redskins HC Shanahan is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. Play against home underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) off a road loss against a division rival and with the current game being played in November. Kaepernick is going to have a big night and perhaps his best of the season. His struggles have been due to injuries in the receivers with Davis nursing a hamstring and Crabtree still out recovering from an achilles. However, for the first time this season Davis is healthy and Crabtree may be back next week. Brooks, who primarily plays on the left side, was involved in the controversial sack of Drew Brees last week that was nullified and deemed a 15-yard penalty helping the Saints win the game. Brooks, who got paid last season, currently leads all 49ers in sacks and has another seven QB knockdowns and 15 hurries on his 2013 resume. he will be going up against Tyler Polumbus, who has turned around this season from a horrendous 2012 season. Still, I think Polumbus will struggle against the speed, strength, and athleticism of Brooks. Kaepernick will be able to open up the playbook a bit tonight. There is no one on the Washington defense capable of covering Davis in space and he will be a great vertical opportunity down the seems. Take the 49ers.
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +2.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC East action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. I like splitting this wager into a 10* amount using the line and adding an optional 2* amount using the money line. The Dallas defense has been scorched this season and rank near the bottom in all major categories. Now, they are coming off a BYE week and this added rest and preparation work will make a huge difference in this matchup. In first meeting the Dallas DL was the dominant force pressuring Manning on 43% of his drop backs and 23 of the 24 pressures came from the front four without the need for blitzes. Giants Will Beatty was defeated badly in Week 1, but has since righted the ship and will do better this time around. However, there is no denying that Dallas is going to bring pressure the majority of the time knowing that the Giants cannot run the ball effectively against them - or anyone for that matter. Giants rank 25th running the ball 24 plays per game and 28th gaining just 77 rushing yards per game. Miles Auston, who should be near 100% healthy this week, caught 10 of his 11 targets for 72 yards in Week 1. As he so often does, TE Jason Whitten abused the Giants
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | Top | 27-11 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by at least three points. Browns have a stout defense, especially against the run. SIM projects that the Steelers will not gain more than 75 rushing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 3-12 ATS the past three seasons and 15-54 ATS since 1992 when the have rushed for fewer than 75 yards. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 33-5 ATS when they hold an opponent to less than 75 rushing yards. Browns defense ranks best in the NFL allowing 4.4 Yards-per-play and third allowing 3.5 rushing-yards-per-play. I expect the Steelers to have problem sin the passing game. Steelers have had two excellent seasons from WR Brown and Cotchery, but in today's matchup Brown will be covered by Joe Haden, who is off the two best performances f the season by any DB. In Weeks 9 and 11, he allowed three completions for just 21 yards and had three INT. Steelers LB corp have had massive struggles and I expect Campbell to be able to execute high percentage passes to various WR. Josh Gordon is a huge weapon in man coverage off of play action. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-21 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog and after the first month of the season. Take the Browns.
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11-24-13 | NY Jets +4 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New York Jets as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game. Given the favorable projections I will suggest playing this game as a 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play on road teams (NY JETS) off a road loss with the game taking place in November. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games with the current game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. The Jets young defensive front is one of the best in the AFC. Wilkerson is a terror and has had only three games without a sack. I see Baltimore Center Gradkowski as the weak link on the Ravens OL and it is that are where the Jets will elect to bring occasional pressure. The Ravens can't really double team Wilkerson as it will then allow Richardson and Coples to step up and make big plays. The Jets ground attack will be featured throughout this game. Ivory has been the leader recently with 73 carries in his last four games. The Jets OL has not graded well in run blocking, but it has improved with the emergence of Ivory. I do like the matchup of the Jets ground attack against the Ravens defensive front. This will allow Smith to play a more composed and relaxed game and not be pressured into trying to make high risk plays to move the chains. Take the Jets.
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11-23-13 | Arizona State -3 v. UCLA | Top | 38-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on UCLA in a huge PAC-12 matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. I still like playing this as a 10* play using the line as there the risk/reward of playing the ML is not justified. That is not because I think ASU may not win the game but rather the Return-On-Investment quotient (ROI) that I use and had also used during my Wall Street career trading currencies and international debt instruments. ASU leads the PAC-12 South Division by one game over UCLA and USC, who they have already defeated. This program has had a 2-year goal to go to the Rose Bowl and the only item left to accomplish that is to defeat UCLA today. ASU gets the job done in the turnover department in nearly every game by virtue of their turnover margin. UCLA is just 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-25 mark using the Money Line and has made a whopping 50 units/unit wagered averaging a +188 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (UCLA) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 35-17 record for 67% winners and has made 44 units per unit wagered since 2008 and has averaged a +175 dog play. Play on road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) in a game involving two good teams outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP and after 7+ games have been played. ASU has the vastly better defense in this matchup and arguably the superior offense as well. ASU has been very successful shutting down the ground attack and forcing teams to throw into the true strength of their defense. ASU offense ranks 9th getting 41 PPG, 24th getting 470 yards-per-game, and have a fantastic FG kicker that his hit 95% of his attempts on the season. So, I see this as a chance to get ona dog with the better OL and DL and the better special teams and receive points. Take ASU
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11-23-13 | Oregon v. Arizona +20.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona as they host Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. This play marks the third straight time I have played against Oregon with Stanford winning SU and Utah giving the Ducks a very tough game before their starting QB went down to concussion and Oregon pulled away. Utah still covered a very juicy 28 1/2 point spread and were tied 14-14. The key fact is that QB Mariota is hurt. To what degree is not fully known since Oregon will not discuss injuries with the media. he ahs played with a knee brace since getting the injury in the UCLA game. He has stated that his mobility is not limited by the brace, but what defenses are showing him pre-snap. I believe it is a combination of the two factors. he is hobbled with the brace and negative rushing yards for the second straight game and opposing teams have been pouring over the Stanford game to prep for the Ducks offense. The true advantage of this matchup lies with the Arizona ground attack that ranks 10th averaging 50 rushes per game and 11th averaging 259 rushing yards per game. This is the perfect matchup for Arizona as it will set up play action pass plays in man coverage situations and also will give Arizona a huge edge in TOP. Strong ground attack and ball control are the two top ingredients necessary to compete with Oregon for four quarters. Take Arizona.
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11-23-13 | Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten action set to start at Noon ET. PM. The simulator shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at winning the game. Their 4-6 record is just not reflective of the strength of the Northwestern team. MSU may have 1 loss on the season, but their SOS has been one of the weakest in the Big Ten. This will be MSU's stiffest test since losing at Notre Dame in Week 4. What I like most about this matchup is the Northwestern defense that the SIM projects will hold MSU to 21 or fewer points. In past games, MSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 15 and 21 points. The MSU defense ranks very high in nearly all of the major statistical categories, but again I point out their strength of schedule is very weak. MSU offense is a highly suspect unit that ranks 101st averaging 4.8 yards-per-play and 95th averaging 359 yards-per-game. It is a highly predictive offense with few wrinkles. They run the ball 57% of the time and I believe the Northwestern defensive front will contain the ground game and force MSI into 2nd and 3rd and long situations. Northwestern ranks 35th allowing 5.1 yards-per-play and 50th allowing 4.0 rushing-yards-game and this has been attained against significantly tougher competition than what MSU has faced this season. Take Northwestern.
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11-23-13 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Oklahoma in a huge BIG 12 showdown set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability K-State will win this game by seven or more points. Sooner HC Stoops, who played for HC Snyder and then was part of his coaching staff, looks to become the greatest winning coach in Sooner history. he is currently tied with Swtzer with 157 wins, but based on my research that celebration will have to wait at least another week. Sooners have essentially three quality QB that can lineup under center and as has been the case all season Stoops has not declared a starter. Still, teams, like Kansas State can prepare for this game knowing they will see all three of them at some point in various situations in the game. I view the defensive units as near equals in this matchup, but K-State has a tremendous advantage on the offensive side. Both teams can run the ball well, but K-State has a much more balanced attack. K-State ranks 11th with a 0.522 points-per-play ration, 6th converting 52% of their third down situations, 23rd averaging 210 RYPG, and 9th averaging 9.0 yards-per-pass. It is the last ranking that K-State will be able to exploit. They use a passing game with high percentage passes designed to maximize yards after the catch. K-State HC Snyder is a resounding 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. SIM shows a projection calling for K-State to score 28+ points in this game. Sooners are just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons and 12-61 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. K-State is 5-2 ATS this season and 19-4 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points in a game. Take K-State.
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also LOVE playing this as a money line combination bet. I will suggest playing a 10* play using the line and adding a 2.5* amount using the money line. I have seen lines as high as +375 on the money line and I believe that if you are patient this line could climb to 10 1/2 and sport near +400 on the money line. I am not saying this is a LOCK and I never use that word. However, when I make these plays/investments over the course of the season, the return on investment (ROI) becomes very high and very real. Even the struggling teams in the NFL have a tendency to bounce back with a much improved performance, especially against the elite opponents. Falcons have displayed this tendency and are a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?75-39 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record with the current game being played in the second half of the season. Fortunately, Steven Jackson has returned to the lineup and last week he showed some of his tackle-breaking ability against the Bucs. Although Jackson gained just 41 yards on 11 carries, 33 of those yards came after contact and he forced four missed tackles. Atlanta desperately needs some balance right now, and Jackson has the ability to plug away and help keep the chains moving. Of course, better run blocking wouldn
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11-21-13 | Rutgers +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they take on UCF in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. UCF is just not playing well as evidenced by their near losses to Houston and Temple. They were 13 1/2 point favorites against Houston and had to fight down the stretch just to get away with a 19-14 home win. Then things worsened as they fell behind a 1-win Temple team and required a TD catch late in the fourth quarter that will be an ESPY Finalist. They won 39-36 and were 17 1/2 point favorites. Rutgers is a vastly better team than Temple and has had games to review what Houston and Temple did to squash the UCF offense. I like Rutgers too, as a 5* First half play and this is well supported by a super system that has hit 81% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites using the 1rst half line (UCF) that are off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout loss by 28 points or more. Rutgers is coming off a horrid losing 52-17 to a near-equal Cincinnati team. UCF is missing several starters due to injuries and some are listed as probable, but even if they play at 80%, I strongly believe Rutgers will be able to accomplish exactly what Temple did last week. Take Rutgers.
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB +18 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on Alabama-Birmingham as they host Rice in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UAB will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. UAB is a rock solid 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's team. 25 of the 39 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points and this under scores my strong belief that this will end up being a single digit result. The SIM projects that UAB will score 28 or more points and this has not been good news for backers of Rice in this situation. Note, that Rice is just 4-11 ATS over the past three seasons and 44-90 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. Take UAB.
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on Toledo as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total and would recommend a 2* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will win this game and that there will be less than 70 points scored in this game. SIM projects that Toledo will score 28 or more points and this is not good news for Northern Illinois. In past games, NO is just 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points in a game. They are 0-5 ATS when allowing 28 to 35 points over the past three seasons. Toledo is 6-1 ATS this season and 16-9 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points. Moreover, the SIM projects that Toledo will gain more than 500 offensive yards. In past games, Toledo is 4-0 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-8 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ offensive yards. NI has Jordan Lynch, who should be in the Heisman conversation as he has been the dominant player in both the passing and running game that has earned NI the Top-20 ranking they enjoy. However, Toledo bring the top ground attack in the MAC and Fluellen has been upgraded to probable. Since his achilles strain, freshman Kareem Hunt has been tremendous and the two together will be very tough for the NI defensive front to contain. Take Toledo for 10*, the 'under' for 5*, and a 2* parlay using Toledo (ML) and the 'under'.
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. We are now at the point of the NFL season where the surprises are quite evident. After a 1-3 start and Carolina fans calling for HC Ron Rivera's job, the Panthers have won 5 straight games. I had noted in yesterday's winning report on the Denver Broncos that KC had not defeated a team with a winning record yet this season. Carolina had that dubious distinction until they got a very impressive road win in SF last week. The Patriots have once again managed injuries in perfect order and now have two weapons returning to the lineup in Aquib Talib and Shane Vereen. The media attention is always focused on QB Brady, but what has gone largely unnoticed is the emergence of the Patriots ground attack. The most important return to the Patriots offense has been TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been the leading target for Brady in two of the three games he has played. Gronkowski ahs graded in the Top-5 of TE in run blocking in each of his first three seasons. Carolina has some very good coverage LB in Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, but they have yet to face a team with the balance exhibited by the Patriots. The Carolina success has been predicated on a strong power running game and a stout defense. Jerod Mayo was lost for the season and in typical Patriots plug-and-play fashion, Brandon Spikes has become the NFL leader in run defense. DE Nonlovich ranks second among NFL DE in run stop grade. With Spikes ability to consistently blow up blockers, I strongly believe the Patriots will keep Carolina to a less than 125 rushing yards. The Carolina defensive front led by Greg Hardy and rookie of the year candidate Lotulelei, but the Patriots OL has developed into a strong group. Watch LT Nate Solder, who has become one of the best LT in the NFL and one that I strongly believe will completely protect Brady's blind side tonight. Belichick is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog as the coach of the Patriots; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing strong defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in games played in the second half of the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-28 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against favorites (CAROLINA) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games with the current game being played in November. Take the Patriots.
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 103 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. KC is a perfect 9-0 on the season, but not one of their opponents has a winning record on the season. Hard to believe, but only the Dallas cowboys at 5-5 are the only team not have a losing record in the Chiefs 9 game win streak. The Chiefs defense knows that Manning has liked to stretch defenses in the vertical routes with 50% of his passes being 20+ yards. The Denver WR corps are excellent at getting separation and in this matchup, I strongly believe Manning will look to dissect the KC defense with underneath routes and look for the WR to get better than 50% of he passing yards after the catch has been made. The one weapon that Manning has that KC will have vast trouble defending is TE Julius Thomas. The third year pro is playing at a level that no other TE has matched and that includes Saints TE Graham. This is the nightmare situation for the Chiefs and if forced to double team him with a bracket coverage scheme, it will put Welker, D. Thomas, or Eric Decker in man situations. Manning averages a league-low 2.35 seconds to release the ball, which negates the Chiefs blitz schemes and will allow for the ground attack to work as well. Denver is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects a high probability that Denver will have between 300 and 350 passing yards in this game. In past games, Denver is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 passig yards. Take Denver.
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 3 points. Given the favorable projections, I like making this play as an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Kaepernick's struggles are not all his doing. he is missing Crabtree, who will be in a few weeks and has had the luxury of one of the best RB in the game in Frank Gore. He is an elite back, who has 13 runs of 15+ yards ranking him second best in the NFL. The Saints defense that ranked near the bottom in all categories the past two years has improved to a middle of the pack unit. However, their run defense is not strong. I expect the 49ers to run Gore at ILB Curtis Lofton, who has 14 total missed tackles, that is second worst in the league. Moreover, the Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins ranks 75th out of 85 safeties in run defense. Another 49er matchup advantage is with T Joe Staley, who will minimize Cameron Jordan, who has been the leading pass rusher for the Saints. Staley was the best tackle in the NFL in 2012 and now he has greatly improved his pass protection skills. The connection between Brees and TE Graham has led to the Saints surge in the NFC standings. The majority of these plays have been big play vertical routes. The 49ers have one of the best duos in the game in Reid and Whitner. The duo has combined for quarterbacks completing just 21 of 46 pass attempts for 296 yards and a 49 QB rating, and NO TD. Graham is also nursing an injury, which will slow him down as well. SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SIM projects that SF will score 28 or more points, will gain 5.5 or more yards per rushing attempt, and will gain between 350 and 400 total offensive yards. In past games, the 49ers are 6-0 ATS this season and 17-2 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points; 3-0 ATS this season and 10-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained between 350 and 400 total offensive yards; 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. Take the San Francisco 49ers.
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills +2 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by three or more points. Good thing that this game is starti9ng at 1:00 PM ET as a very rare and extremely large severe weather pattern rolls east throughout the afternoon that is expected to produce numerous tornados and extreme 80 to 100 MPH straight line winds. So, weather will not be a factor in this game, but it is certainly wise to check weather conditions in the Midwest that may effect games you are thinking of playing. These two teams have two of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bills grade third best led by DE Kyle Williams and one of the Top-3 best run stoppers in DT Marcell Dareus. At the second level the Bills have two of the best pass rushers in Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams. The Jets have an excellent performing defensive front, but that pressure and style of play will not benefit them in this matchup. EJ Manuel has had more downs than ups in his rookie season, but there is one glaring situation he does bets in. He excels in quick drops and releases that serve to avoid the blitz and any pressure that is generated past 2.5 seconds. Emanuel's percentage drops from 70% to just 55% when blitz and this is the largest differential of any starting QB in the NFL this season. So, the game plan will be to establish the ground attack and then have Emanuel complete shot high percentage pass plays. Then play action becomes a very powerful situation that will give Emanuel more than 3.5 seconds to scan the field in man coverage situations. The Jets defensive front is one of the most difficult to run against, but I do like the matchup between Eric Wood and Harrison. Buffalo is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing inconsistent defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in games played in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (BUFFALO) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This system is 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 72-34 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system is 10-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Buffalo.
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11-17-13 | Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East battle set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Redskins will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have a shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* unit getting the points and then adding a 2* amount using the juicy money line. Washington is a solid 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) when facing strong passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2002. Play on road underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game being played in the second half of the season. DeAngelo Hall nearly got into a fight with Eagles WR Jackson in Week1 after horse collaring the wideout. Hall has graded quite well since Week 2 and has shadowed No.1 WR in each game for at last the first half of play. The Redskins then change of coverage assignments in the third quarter. I do think Hall will shadow Jackson all game and will minimize his big play ability throughout. Hall has covered Johnson and Demaryius Thomas and has three INT, with two returned for scores in those matchups. The Eagles run defense ahs been a significant bright spot this season. However, the mobility and elusiveness of RG III is going to present coverage problems for the secondary. RG III will be able use roll outs to extend plays beyond 3.0 seconds where the Eagles secondary has been exploited. The Eagle defense ranks 31st allowing 417 offensive yards per game, 31st allowing 307 passing yards per game, and 29th getting sacks on just 4.26% of all plays. I strongly believe RG III will have a vastly better game than Foles will have and that will the difference maker.
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11-16-13 | Stanford v. USC +4 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on USC as they host Stanford in PAC-12 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. 22 of the 32 wins covered by 7 or more points and under scores my belief that USC wins this game. This system is also 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Play against a road team (STANFORD) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This system simply points out the strong probability for a major letdown by the Cardinal after their tremendous win over Oregon last Thursday, which was a 10* winning play for us. Stanford defeated then-no.3 Oregon 26-20 and easily covered as 11 point dogs having never trailed in the game and had built up a 26-0 lead. USC is off an impressive win as well, albeit, not with the media attention of Stanford. USC defeated Cal 62-28 and easily covered as 19 point favorites. In a role reversal of sorts, USC will control the LOS and will dictate the pace of play and have a significant edge in TOP. Take the Trojans.
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11-16-13 | Utah +28 v. Oregon | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on Utah as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. Utah has played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and are a solid team despite being just 4-5 on the season. The recipe needed to defeat Oregon has been lade out on the kitchen table. I had Stanford as one of 10* winners and also added a Money Line play on that upset win. The reason I liked Stanford so much is that they had a big OL and DL that could wear down the Oregon lines and maintain a significant edge in TOP. Oregon had just 62 rushing yards on 24 carries against Stanford. Prior to this season-low, the season low for rushing was 216 yards against Tennessee in Week 3. Stanford's lone loss was to Utah, which does provide some ample evidence that they can compete with any team in the nation. Oregon QB, Marcus Mariota, is upgraded to probable for this game, but he ahs had this knee injury since the UCLA game. His mobility has been compromised as three of his 6 rushes were sacks against Stanford. The past two games, the Oregon defensive front has been exploited with UCLA gaining 219 yards and Stanford 274 yards. Utah has a stable of RB led by Bubba Poole. His name is not a reflection of what you might think of him as he is a solid 6-0, 195 pounds with tremendous athleticism. Travis Wilson is the pounding back with 5 TD on the season. He is the player with the size (6-6), 240) that will be featured in this game and will simply wear down the Oregon defensive front. I certainly do not think that Utah will be able to compete for four quarters equally with the Ducks, but 26 points is just far too many to give Utah in this matchup.
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11-16-13 | Washington State +13 v. Arizona | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on Washington State as they take on Arizona in PAC 12 action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. WSU is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons; Arizona is just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. WSU is off a terrible 55-21 loss hosting ASU. However, HC Leach is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992. Arizona is off a 31-26 home loss to UCLA and were installed as 2 point favorites. HJC Rodriguez I just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-8 mark for 78% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARIZONA) off a home loss and with 17 or more total starters returning. Take Washington State.
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11-16-13 | Maryland v. Virginia Tech -15.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
This is the first of many 10* releases in All-Sports. be sure to check back often to make certain you get them all to maximize your daily profit in All Sports. 10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Maryland Terrapins in ACC action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tech will win this game by at least 17 points. I had V-Tech in their dominant road win last week against Miami (Fla) and now they face a Terrapin team that is just a mess on both sides of the ball. Maryland is just one game away from bowl eligibility, but a three game losing streak has brought attention to some of the glaring weaknesses on this team. In last week's embarrassing home loss to Syracuse, they had more turnovers than points scored. More injuries have ravaged the receiving corps, leaving them with just three players who have caught a pass in their college careers. Quarterback C.J. Brown hasn
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11-15-13 | Washington +3 v. UCLA | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Washington Huskies as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. I normally would split this 10* amount into an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount on the money line, but the money line does not offer sufficient value/reward in playing it. So, my recommendation would be to just play Washington as a 108 play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and in a game involving two good teams posting win percentages between 60% to 80%. This system produces only a few plays per season, but it is certainly a valuable one noting that it is a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. SIM shows that Washington will score 28 or more points. In past games, Washington is a solid 5-2 ATS this season and 15-5 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. UCLA, though is 0-1 ATS this season and 5-11 ATS over the past three seasons when they allow 28 or more points. Take Washington
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Both teams are coming off very poor losses with Tennessee losing at home to the Jaguars and the Colts posting their worst loss since 2001 losing 38-8 to the Rams. Tennessee also lost their starting QB Locker for the season and will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to run the offense for the remainder of the season. I'll give you the summary first and that is Tennessee has the better defense and that will be the dominant reason they win this game. I do believe that the defense will be at maximum preparedness and focus, especially after losing to JAX last week and knowing their season is all but on the line tonight against the Colts. The Rams defense exposed the weaknesses of the Colts offense and that was no fluke in my opinion. You can be assured that the Titans watched that film as often as possible and will adopt portions of the schemes used by the Rams. The Colts rank ninth in the NFL allowing 21.4 PPG, BUT has been attained in large part by massive mistakes and breaks by opponents in the red zone scoring areas. They rank 24th allowing 368 yards-per-game while the Titans defense ranks 9th allowing 326 YPG. The Titans will be highly successful in putting the Colts offense into numerous third-and-long situations and this the true strength of the Titans defense. They rank fifth allowing 33% of third downs to be converted for first downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?72-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Take Tennessee.
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11-14-13 | Marshall v. Tulsa +13.5 | Top | 45-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Marshall in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MARSHALL) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The flash rankings may indicate that Tulsa will struggle to run the ball, but when you take in consideration several other facts, including the very weak SOS that Marshall has played, you can readily see that this will be a dominant theme in the game. I strongly believe that Tulsa will do very well running the ball and this in turn will set up play action in man coverage situations on the perimeter. Marshall may be bowl eligible, but their six wins have been against Miami (Ohio), Gardner-Webb, UT-San Antonio,, Florida Atlantic, Southern Mississippi, and UAB. Not a very strong resume to say the least. Tulsa has played against Colorado State, Bowling Green, Oklahoma, and East Carolina. So, you can see by these respective lists out misleading the flash stats are for this game. Take Tulsa.
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11-13-13 | Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Northern Illinois in a battle of the MAC Giants set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Both teams have had great seasons, but both are in the same division in the MAC Conference. The simulator shows a high probability that Ball State will lose this game by five or fewer points. I like making a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Ball State is a solid 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-5 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (BALL ST) after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points and is facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. NI has one of the best statistical ranked offenses in the FBS, but I strongly believe that it is severely over stated by the SOS they have faced. Ball State has faced a significantly more difficult schedule and I do believe they have the defense to get the job done tonight. Based on the SIM, 28 points will be a huge factor in this game tonight. The SIM shows a very high probability that Ball State will score 28 or more points and will hold NI and Heisman-vote-getter Lynch to less than 250 net passing yards. In past games, NI is 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when they allowed 28 points. Ball State is a solid 7-1 ATS this season and 20-5 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points and are 6-1 ATS when holding an opponent to fewer than 250 net passing yards. Take Ball State.
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys +6.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a very real shot at winning the game. I like playing this game as a 10* using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the Money Line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This will be a showdown between two NFC Division leaders and the Cowboys can take full control of the very weak NFC East with a win. The Saints defense has had a nice turn around this season, but their elite stoppers will have their toughest matchups tonight. One that sticks out is Saints DE Cameron Jordan, who grades a distant second to J.J. Watts, going up against the best tackle in the NFL in Doug Free. I strongly believe Free will not need double team help against Jordan and in turn this will give Romo plenty of time to survey the field. Moreover. Jordan has had just nine QB pressures in his last three games while starting out the season with 28 pressures in five games. Two major play makers for the Saints are banged up with Sproles and Graham listed as probable. The Saints offense really went south after Sproles left last week's game with a concussion. Graham has had a great season grading in the Top-3 of all receivers on the majority of categories I monitor, BUT he will be going up against arguably the best linebacker in the NFL this season in Lee. He ranks third best defending TE this season and his presence patrolling the middle of the field is going to wreak havoc with Brees' reads and throws. The Saints love to operate over the middle, so if he is having to check off and throw to the sidelines, that is a huge positive for the Dallas Cowboys as the game wears on. Take Dallas.
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -3.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Houston Texans in inter-conference action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by four or more points. SIM projects that Arizona defense will hold Houston to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. In past games, Arizona is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) and is a mistake prone team averaging 60+ penalty yards per game and after dominating the time of possession last game with >36 minutes. J.J. Watt has been the lone bright spot on the Texans defense posting a 50 graded overall while the rest of his defensive teammates combine for a horrid -49 grade. He has lined up as left DE 235 snaps and RE 106 and he will have a better matchup on the left side of this game. The guard positions are heavily tested when going up against Watt, but Arizona has a very strong left guard in Daryn Colledge. I strongly believe he will be very effective when faced against Watt and that Arizona can also line up a TE or use a RB to help pass protect. Arizona does not have an elite defender like Watts, but they have played very well as a unit. They have been able to get pressure on the QB and you will certainly that against an inexperienced KennuB under center. Look for them to use a double blitz through the A gap where both inside linebackers Washington and Dansby will both go to the same side of the center and flood the gap. Another matchup I truly like is having Patrick Peterson covering Andre Johnson. After a slow start, Peterson has been one of the best corners in the NFL. he has not allowed a TD in the past five games and has allowed 14 completions in 38 targets. Minimizing Johnson's impact, will go a long way to securing a win for the Cardinals.
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11-10-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Bengals are coming off a tough loss losing on a safety in OT to the Miami Dolphins. That was, though, a 10* winning release for us on the Dolphins. I want to mention that I will only release my plays when I am confident that every possible detail has been researched and quantified as best as possible. So, many days, these plays will come out, as they are this morning, several house before game time, as opposed to several days. Just keep this in mind when getting all of my 10* releases in all sports so you don't miss out on one single winning play or day. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 22-4 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs or pick (BALTIMORE) that are off a road loss against a division rival in games played in November. of the 22 winners, 14 of them have covered the spread by 7 or more points. The SIM projects that the Ravens ground game struggles will continue and that they will be held to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Bengals are 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent between 75 and 100 rushing yards. Since being the Bengals HC, Lewis is a resounding 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Torrey Smith has been the lone bright spot on this Ravens offense. He leads the league with an average depth of target at 16.1 yards downfield. The most successful play for them has been when he runs a deep post route where he has caught all 7 passes for 199 yards. Flacco has connected with Smith, but his passing accuracy has been below average and absolutely horrid on the deep ball where only 25% of his passes are catchable. Terrance Newman has struggled in deep coverage, so the Ravens will look to get him isolated against Smith. However, the Bengals, will play a bracket allowing Newman and Adam Jones the luxury to play tight coverage in the first 10 yards of a pattern knowing they have excellent deep help from Iloka and Nelson. I fully expect that the underneath coverage defenders will jump a route and get interceptions on balls thrown in Smith's direction. The Bengals have a myriad of weapons for Dalton to throw to led by A.J. Green. RB Giovani Bernard has been a nightmare for defenses catching balls out of the backfield, where he ranks 2nd best in RB receiving grade. WR Marvin Jones has become the second WR and he has outperformed Green over the past month. Take the Bengals.
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11-09-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that V-Tech will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Canes. Given the favorable projections, I like playing this as a 9* play using the line and a 1* playing using the Money Line. Miami is coming off a very humiliating loss to FSU losing 41-14 and failed to cover as 21 point dogs. This was my ACC Game of the Year winner last week. Now, the Canes have to try to refocus all of their positive energies to face a tough Tech squad tonight. I don't see the Canes being able to rid themselves of the reality that they endured last week. They now know and unfortunately believe that they are no longer BCS Title contenders and also know they are light years from the talent and execution of FSU. The Miami defense entered the FSU team confident and ranked very high in several categories nationally. However, they were completely ripped apart and FSU actually did not play their 'A' level game. The Tech run defense is perhaps the most under rated group in the nation. They rank ninth allowing 18.6 PPG, third allowing 264 YPG, second allowing 4.0 yards-per-play, and fifth allowing 2.9 rushing yards per play. Miami is going to have difficulty running the ball and this will be a major problem in being able to use any sort of play action. Further Miami ranks just 67th completing 58% of their pass plays. Tech also knows how to control the ball and gain significant edges in TOP where they rank 18th in the nation. By comparison, Miami ranks 118th in TOP. Hokies are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take the Hokies.
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11-09-13 | Mississippi State +20 v. Texas A&M | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If you can get a money line, I would add no more than a 1* unit 'just in case' the upset happens. Every season, I have had double digit dogs as high has 23 points win the game SU. I obviously never know when this will happen, but placing a little extra wager on the money line puts you in position to take advantage of that distinct possibility when it does happen. Texas A&M is built around their offense and Manziel and they do perform at a high level. Their defense has been many victimized by the prolific offense and just spends far too much time on the field and don't have the personnel necessary to get off the field with third-down stops. This is evident in several game situations. The SIM shows that MS will score 28 or more points and will establish the run game and average between 5.0 and 5.5 yards-per-attempt. In past games, MS is 3-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the past three season when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 RYPA. A&M is just 1-5 ATS this season and 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 28 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP after 7+ games have been played. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. Take Mississippi State.
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11-09-13 | SMU +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Cincinnati in American Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a reasonable shot at an improbable upset win. Given these projections I would suggest playing a 9* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. This does equal 1/2 unit more than the 10* play, but it enhances the ROI on this opportunity considerably. SMU QB Gilbert, a Texas transfer, had a huge game last week against Temple. He threw for 538 passing yards and added 97 rushing yards in their come from behind 59-49 win. The performance set all sorts of school records and I strongly believe he will have another solid game today. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2008 and is 25-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (SMU) with a very strong offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. SMU has played a vastly stronger schedule than Cincinnati and this 'seasoning' will pay-off in this matchup. SMU HC Jones is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing excellent defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Cincinnati HC Tuberville is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the SMU Mustangs.
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11-09-13 | Auburn v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 55-23 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tennessee Volunteers as they take on the Auburn Tigers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UT will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at upsetting the Tigers. Given these favorable projections, I would suggest an alternative wager using a 10* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The entire nation knows that Auburn will run the ball in this game. They have the Conference best ground attack and ranks 6th nationally. In last week's 35-17 win over Arkansas, the Tigers passed nine times. Tennessee has the conference-worst run defense, so based on flash' stats Auburn should have their way in this matchup. However, Tennessee can play a complete run defense and force Auburn to throw the ball more than in recent games. I like Tennessee's corners and I believe they will hold up well in man-coverage situations allowing the other 8 defenders to focus on the run. The other matchup that I like quite a bit is when Tennessee runs the ball. They too, have a great advantage to win the battle at the LOS and get their ground game going. Further, Auburn's pass defense is highly suspect and Tennessee has far more athleticism at the skill positions. So, look for Tennessee to use play action on early downs and look to exploit man coverage on the perimeter or over the middle of the field if zone defense is recognized. VOLS HC Jones is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-26 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. Take Tennessee.
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11-08-13 | Louisville v. Connecticut +28 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on Connecticut Huskies as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in American Conference action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game will be televised on ESPN2. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This line is highly inflated by a public sentiment expecting Louisville to run the score up on a weaker foe to gain BCS respect. The sentiment is fed by the two teams overall records as well. However, UCONN may be winless, but they have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Louisville has to date. This is not to say that UCONN would have a winning record had they played the same teams as Louisville, but rather to point out that UCONN has already played tough opponents. This seasoning can only help UCONN tonight in front a national TV audience. Moreover, Louisville will undoubtedly be looking ahead to next week's showdown against Houston (7-1, 4-0) where they can earn a little more respect from the pollsters with a dominating win. So, the fact is that if Louisville gets up to a big lead, the bench players will be put into the game. No point in getting any starter injured in this game. UCONN is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 2 consecutive road losses since 1992. Take UCONN.
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