Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-26-13 | Illinois v. UNLV +2 | Top | 61-59 | Push | 0 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Taking UNLV here. Rebels a bit of the underachievers to start. But I still feel this team is talented enough to win the MWC while the Illini are a middle of the road Big 10 bunch. Illinois is off to a 5-0 start, but this is their first real test of the year. UNLV will be looking to put their struggling start behind them. Both teams are a little young, but I think that UNLV is ready to get themselves on the right track and it starts with a big win tonight. 10* Money-Bomb UNLV
|
|||||||
11-23-13 | Toledo -2 v. Detroit | Top | 80-78 | Push | 0 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Taking TOLEDO here. I will tell you the last 2 years I really liked this Detroit team. But not so much here in 2013. Too much talent left and it will take sometime to get it back. On the flip side of the coin we have Toledo. These guys bring back 4 of their top players from last years bunch. I think they win the MAC West this season. A little too much experience and too much depth from the Rockets here. We have already cashed our first 2 Top 10*s this season. Time for a three-peat. 10* Money-Bomb TOLEDO ROCKETS
|
|||||||
11-21-13 | USC-Upstate -3.5 v. Niagara | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Taking USC UPSTATE here. I like this little school. South Carolina Upstate brings back all 5 of its starters from last season. Niagra had a little upheavel over the summer as their coach left and took a couple of their returning starters with him. I just think that Upstate has too much size here for Niagra. We have a clear edge on the boards. 10* Money-Bomb USC UPSTATE
|
|||||||
11-14-13 | Temple v. Towson -3.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Taking TOWSON here. I have faded Temple already this season and will do it again. I think this team is shaky and not worth backing right now. They really don't have any depth and with the way fouls are being called, a 6 man rotation will tire/foul out. Plus we have the fact that most of the betting public isn't too keen on Towson. These little Tigers are a tough out. Would not shock me to see these guys battle Drexel for the CAA Championship. They return their top 5 scorers from last year's 18 win squad. They have the reigning CAA POY in Jerrelle Benimon who averaged 17ppg 11rbg last year. He is at 13ppg and 15rbg to start in 2013, but is getting scoring help from Rafriel Guthrie who is scoring 18ppg so far. Towson with revenge from last seasons 11pt loss and will get the big W here over the bigger 'name' team. 10* Money-Bomb TOWSON TIGERS
|
|||||||
10-30-13 | Portland Trail Blazers -5.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Taking PORTLAND here. I like this Trailblazers team. This is a great spot for them. These guys lost 13 straight to end last year. They are much better than that. They added some depth and have stars at PG and PF. I think this Suns team will struggle to 20-25 wins. I think Portland is a playoff team. Suns clearly in a rebuild with new GM and Coach, plus they are saying they are basically in a youth movement rebuild. The Suns for me will be a go-against team all season, while I think we can get some good value on Portland early. 8* Sure-Shot PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
|
|||||||
05-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Taking the HEAT here. Ok. We have played on the Pacers and have cashed in this series. But it is time to go back the King here. Now, Pacers bigs do have an edge on the glass no doubt. Hibbert, West and George are big and physical. But LeBron is no marshmallow. I expect him to take his game to another level tonight. Wade is a tough player also, but right now, there is nobody better than James. Not to get into Jordan/LeBron debate, but James is the only guy who can control a game like Michael. With this series hanging in the balance in this Game 5, I expect the MVP, and best player in the league to show why he is the MVP and best player in the league. This series has been extremely tight, so when I see that this line hasn't moved after the first 4 games, I know the lines-makers are thinking the exact same thing I am. That Miami is the better team, and should pull away here with a double digit win. 8* Sure Shot MIAMI HEAT
|
|||||||
05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -8.5 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 59 m | Show |
Taking the PACERS here. OK. We know the Heat are defending Champs. But Have you really been that impressed with the play-off run they have had. I'm not. And I have cashed with them a few times. Simple fact is they have not been tested. They had a joke series vs the Bucks and cake-walked over them. After a long-layoff, they faced a tough defensive team in the Bulls. Bulls promptly came out and beat Miami in their own backyard. Yes, they didn't do much after, but let's be honest. The Bulls we missing a few guys. Now we have Miami, again, with some ample rest time. Wade has a banged up knee and will be facing another tough, aggressive defensive unit. Pacers took 2 of the first 3 in last year's playoff series vs this same Heat team. They won't be intimidated by LeBron, Wade and Bosh and Miami. Indiana took 2 of 3 from the Heat this season. I think the biggest edge here is in the front-court with Hibbert and West over Bosh and the rest of the Miami bigs. They just aren't physical enough. Paul George is another tough defender they can throw at people. This is too many points and I will gladly them. Will also sprinkle some ML action here also. 5* BEST BET Indiana Pacers
|
|||||||
04-06-13 | Wichita State v. Louisville -10.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -103 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
Taking LOUISVILLE here. Great season and run by Wichita State. They worked and beat good teams getting here. Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio State. The weak link in the run, LaSalle. Now they are facing UL. Louisville is a different animal. Missouri Valley has some tough teams, and defenses. But they haven't met a team like this. The Cards press is absolutely ferocious. We saw what the did to Syracuse in the Big East Championship. Down 13 at half, 16 at the 15 minute mark. They crank it up to go on a 29-4 run, then stretch it to 44-10! Down 13, win by 17. That is something else. They have shot over 50% every game here in the NCAAs. Duke was a pretty decent team. They stymied Cook and Sulaiman into a terrible 4-21 day from the field. Curry and Kelly were both 3-9. People forge this Shockers team had to replace its top 5 scorers from last year. They have gotten this far, but I think they are really running into a juggernaught here. UL is 10-1 ATS last 11. They have 1 loss the last 18 games. A 5 OT game at ND. Plus they are now playing for their fallen teammate, Ware, and his injury. This team was the overall 1 seed for a reason. I think Wichita will be 'shocked' here. UL on a mission. Including the Big East Tourney, in these 7 tourney games, UL has outscored teams by 19 (Nova), 12(ND), 17(Syracuse), 31(NCAT), 26(ColSt), 8(Oregon) and 22(Duke). If this game is closer than 15 I will be the one who is shocked. MONEY-BOMB 10* on LOUISVILLE
|
|||||||
03-31-13 | Duke v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
Taking LOUSIVILLE here. We had the Cards over Duke as a Top 10 going way to back last November. (Dieng out). Can't take anything away from Duke. Great year. Great run. Great team. But I am going with the Cards. i think they are going to force the issue and Duke will turn it over. Duke does a lot of things bettter. But I think we are going to score the win based on hustle points and defense. 5* LOUISVILLE
|
|||||||
03-31-13 | Michigan v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 79-59 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
Taking the GATORS here. Forget about Wichita getting to the Final Four, this Gator team has been over looked basically all year. We heard about Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville, all ranked #1 this year. Michigan and Miami, two other talked about teams. But everyone is sleeping on the SEC and the Gators. This team had maybe 1 bad loss (at Arkansas) this year. Losses at Arizona, neutral court to Kansas State, @ Missouri and @ Kentucky. Also @ Tenn. when the Vols were really clicking. I just think that the SEC hoops league is getting a lack of respect. This is a veteran bunch. Now, I don't think they can get down 10 to the Wolverines, and expect to come back and win by double digits. That would be a tall task, though not impossible. Michigan is here because of a 33ft prayer that was answered by God himself. I'm taking the bit more experienced club here. 5* FLORIDA GATORS
|
|||||||
03-30-13 | Weber State v. Northern Iowa -5 | Top | 59-56 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Taking NORTHERN IOWA. This is not a 'vinatage' Weber team. This team played a bunch of cupcakes this year. I have zero faith in them, especially on the road vs a tough Northern Iowa team. The guys played Louisville, Memphis, Stanford, UNLV, George Mason, Iowa and St Mary's. A bit tougher non-con schedule than Cal-Irvine, Utah Valley and Arizona Christian to name a few. The home court will help here also. I think Northern Iowa is just the better team and should cover this number. 10* NORTHERN IOWA
|
|||||||
03-29-13 | Fla Gulf Coast v. Florida -12.5 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Taking the FLORIDA GATORS here. We have had Gulf Coast the last couple games and they came through for us both times cashing for us. Here, the bell strikes 12 for Cinder-Fella. Let's be honest. Yes they beat Miami early in the year (without a key player for the Canes). Yes the beat Georgetown (a team picked for 7th in the Big East). And yes they beat San Diego State (a team 4th in MWC). I was surprised at Miami's season. I was overwhelmed with what the Hoyas did. Both over-achieved in my eyes and is why I faded them in their conference and NCAA tourney's. SDST I picked my spots on, but again, they were not an elite team. Enter Florida. This team has been under the radar all year. They will have no problems running here. I know Gulf Coast is playing with house money. But let's be honest. This is basically a fly-by-night program. They have no history. They don't have the depth or talent to last year. The inexperience will catch up. We saw it with LaSalle. These small schools can make some noise. But it takes a couple years to move into Butler, Gonzaga territory. Even when George Mason made their Final Four run, they were at least a conference power. This Gulf Coast is a great story. But I think the Gators bring too much to the table. You think Billy Donavan wants to lose to these little brothers in the NCAAs? They won't be overlooking this bunch. 5* FLORIDA GATORS
|
|||||||
03-29-13 | Michigan +2 v. Kansas | Top | 87-85 | Win | 100 | 115 h 43 m | Show |
Taking MICHIGAN here. I think this Kansas team is about to be sent packing. The difference for me is the guards of Michigan. They rarely turn the ball over. This is tight line. The game is going to won inside. Wolverines must stop Kansas on the glass if this is going to get us the money. Jayhawks look like the sleep-walk through games at times. Western Kentucky gave them all they could handle. I get it. That was WKU Super Bowl so they were going full-throttle. They were down 9 at the half to NC before running them out of the building in the 2nd. This Wolverines team is different. If you let them get up 9 at the half, their will be no come-back. Eventually, that kind of play balances out and teams that are winning like that are sent home. I think that is the case here with the Jayhawks on Friday night. 5 MICHIGAN
|
|||||||
03-28-13 | La Salle v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 82 h 23 m | Show |
Taking WICHITA STATE here. Pretty simple here for me. As much as Florida Gulf Coast is getting the Cinder-Fella treatment, let's not forget LaSalle. These guys won their play-in vs Boise. Then knocked off Kansas State and Ole Miss their last 2 games by a bucket each. As much as those close wins help, I think the clock finally strikes 12 today for this team. In Wichita, we have a team that pretty much controlled both of their wins. People talk about them shooting 14-28 from 3pt in the win over the Zags. Well they shot 2-20 from 3pt in their 18 pt win over Pittsburgh. Here is why they won those games. Pitt shot 1-17 from downtown, Zags 8-23. This team can play defense and force things. So we have a team that has grinded out 2 tough wins vs a team with 2 wins over more powerful programs. Well, we are going with the Missouri Valley here in this mid-major match-up. 10* WICHITA STATE
|
|||||||
03-28-13 | Arizona +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 79 h 25 m | Show |
Taking ARIZONA here. Like this Wildcats team. A good mix of young and old. let's not forget they have a PG in Lyons who has tourney experience with Xavier. They have some good size inside. I thought Ohio State would get picked off last round and that came thisclose to happening. Again, I think OSU is weaker on offense, and the added size of Arizona will be undoing for the Buckeyes. 10* ARIZONA WILDCATS
|
|||||||
03-24-13 | Creighton v. Duke -5 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Taking DUKE here. Wow. What a line we are getting here. Duke didn't look pretty in their game vs Albany and this line reflects that. I thought Creighton could be a Final 8 team. They are that talented and it starts with F McDermont. But this is a terrible match-up for him, and the only other rebounder they have in C Echenique. Plumlee has been a beast. Now the kid is bringing back the sky-hook! Are you kidding me? Kareem is smiling somewhere. Ryan Kelly is another long body and all Duke does when he plays is win. (19-1). Both these teams can score. They hit 3s and their FTs. But I think Plumlee is just being 'that guy' lately. The line is short enough to warrant the Top 10*. Much like last year, Creighton comes in off winning their conference tourney. They played a close 1st round game. (won by 1 last year, 3 this year) Then faced an ACC power. Last year lost to NC as 8pt dogs 87-73. Another 10 point game would not surprise me. 10* DUKE BLUE DEVILS
|
|||||||
03-24-13 | La Salle v. Mississippi -3 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
Taking MISSISSIPPI here. We cashed with these guys the other night and will come right back to them here. Love LaSalle. Nice story. Win the play in game. Beat up on Kansas State and hold on for a 2pt win. I just the lack of size inside is going to catch up with them. I also don't think they will only have 8 TOs. (they forced 9). Now, the thing that scares me about Ole Miss is this kid Henderson. I like fearless. I like not scared to shoot and not scared to shoot out of slump. But that can bury you in one and done like this. 6-21, 3-12 from 3 normally won't get you by Wisconsin. Halloway and Buckner inside went for 21 boards. They will need that again to make this a comfortable win. 5* MISSISSIPPI
|
|||||||
03-24-13 | Iowa State +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
Taking IOWA STATE here. Easy 10* winner for us with these guys over ND the other night. This team is good. Not sure what more I can say. They played and lost in OT to Kansas twice. Those losses will pay off here vs a tough Ohio State team. I have to say, I think the Buckeyes are a bit weak offensively. Iowa State spreads it around and can beat you all over the floor. I just don't see OSU getting enough production here. This ISU team is still under the radar as far as I am concerned. The line does surprise me though. I will take the points happily and look for another outright win here. 5* IOWA STATE
|
|||||||
03-23-13 | California +7 v. Syracuse | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Grabbing CAL here. Bears have 2 pretty guards who can light it up. They also have some size inside. I thought Cal would be a tough out this tourney. We had them in revenge form last game over UNLV. We are now catching a couple extra points since the Orange put a beat-down on Montana. I do like Syracuse. They can easily cover this number. But I think the defense is a little soft. Even with the zone, I think the Cal F's can get to the boards. Plus, with their guard play, they could very well shoot over the zone. I am sure Cal examined that 2nd half Big East Championship game tape to see that epic collapse. Great value with the points and I will not be shocked to get the outright win here. 5* CAL BEARS
|
|||||||
03-23-13 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 53-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Taking MICHIGAN here. Yes. We cashed nicely with VCU the other day. Best thing for us is that they flat-out ambushed that Akron team. I knew that the Zips missing Abreu would be a help. But the rest of the team falling ill was just a bonus. The Wolverines won't be under the weather. Burke and Hardway and Stauskas. These guards don't turn the ball over. They won't get easily flustered as our friends from Akron did. As much as I like this VCU team, I think we will see more of a A10 Championship version, where STL controlled them. Wolverines will dictate the pace and flow of this game. 5* MICHIGAN
|
|||||||
03-22-13 | Iowa State +1 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 116 h 28 m | Show |
Taking IOWA STATE here. Like this team people. Have had them numerous times. I think ND is a bit over rated. They can shoot from 3 like nobody. They board. This team can make a little noise if they get hot and stay hot from deep. 10* IOWA STATE
|
|||||||
03-22-13 | La Salle v. Kansas State -5.5 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Taking KANSAS STATE here. First. We get these guys almost playing at home. Second. This team was pretty good in Big 12 play this year. Again, a neutral court, but still close to home and laying this short number vs a play-in team. I think LaSalle should have been dancing. In my opinion, when you have your power conferences that are strong at top and not strong in the middle, then give these smaller schools a shot. People would rather cheer on a LaSalle then a 6th,7th or 8th Big East, Big 10 or whatever. LaSalle shot 63% from the field vs Boise. That isn't happening here. 5* KANSAS STATE
|
|||||||
03-22-13 | Mississippi +5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 57-46 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show |
Taking MISSISSIPPI here. These guys playing good ball right now. They had a hiccup in the middle of the SEC season. I won't begrudge them for a b2b losses against Kentucky (when Kent. was good with Noel) and then at Florida. A couple close losses also. But right now, this team is hot. They have a fearless shooter in Henderson. A couple of bangers in Hollaway and Buckner to do the dirty work under the boards. Any game with Wiscy can get ugly, so I will take any points I can get fading the Badgers. I am not sold on the Big 10, especially in this spot. 10* MISSISSIPPI
|
|||||||
03-21-13 | Davidson +4 v. Marquette | Top | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
Taking DAVIDSON here. I see this 3-14 matchup. I see a team laying 19 and the 2 others laying 10.5 and 12. And Marquette is laying 4? I keep looking at the bracket to make sure it says 3 Marquette 14 Davidison. So Davidison has won 17 straight. That doesn't count right. They play in the SoCon. Marquette had a losing (5-6) on the road and add their neutral court games you get 7-8 on the road. Davidson was 9-4 on the road and 5-2 on neutral courts. 14-6 is not a bad road record. And these guys travel. New Mexico, Wisc-Mil, Richmond, Drexel, Chattanooga, neutral games vs Gonzaga, West Va, Vandy. They won't be intimidated by Marquette and it won't be a shock when this game cashes ML. 10* DAVIDSON
|
|||||||
03-21-13 | Bucknell +3.5 v. Butler | Top | 56-68 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 44 m | Show |
Taking BUCKNELL here. Butler does not have one of their vintage clubs. On the flip side, we have Bucknell with a legit NBA talent in F Mike Muscala. We played on these guys a couple times this year and it paid off. Muscala is joined by other experienced players at the guard and forward positions. Like I said, an experienced Bucknell team, went 1-1 in the NIT last year, looking to pull a Lehigh (beat Duke, lost Xavier). I think this team is bigger inside, and has just as solid guard play. 5* BUCKNELL
|
|||||||
03-21-13 | Valparaiso +10.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 54-65 | Loss | -106 | 83 h 25 m | Show |
Taking VALPO here. Would really like to move this as a top 10, but this game is being in Michigan so Sparty should have some fan support. I like this veteran Valpo team. Double digits here generous. Would have liked the full 11, but line feeds for the sites take some time coming up. 5* VALPARAISO
|
|||||||
03-20-13 | Charleston Sou +14 v. Southern Miss | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
5* Charleston Southern
|
|||||||
03-17-13 | Wisconsin +1.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 43-50 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Taking WISCONSIN here. I know that OSU has revenge for an ugly 71-49 loss at Wiscy a month ago. But what makes me shake my head, and makes me want to move another 10* here, is the fact that public is coming in huge on OSU and this line has yet to budge. I do like Bo Ryan as a HC. The guy gets the most out of his teams every year, and does it ugly. This team is no different. What I like most about today's game is the Badger experience. A lot of upperclass lead this team, while OSU is a younger squad. Let's not forget that 22 pt loss on the road. This is a Big 10 Championship game. Kids can get nervy. Youngsters more than the older guys. There are no special trends working. Both guys have split out over the last few years, with each winning on the others courts. There could be a 'let down' from Wiscy beating big-bad Indiana, but I think the coach will keep them focused on a Big 10 Tourney Champion Trophy instead. It's not like Wiscy was the bottom seed and is playing on heart and luck. This team has won 23 games beating Indiana and Michigan twice and Ohio State. 1 win, OK, a fluke. 5 wins over those guys, not so much. 5* WISCONSIN BADGERS
|
|||||||
03-17-13 | North Carolina +4 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Taking NORTH CAROLINA here. Kinda wanted to pull the trigger on these guys yesterday as well. They have been playing excellent of late with their only losses in the last 10 to Duke. So this line opened at 1.5 and is now up to 4 in some spots as everyone pours on the Hurricanes. Miami won both meetings this year, by 26 at home and 9 on the road. This NC team is still a team of McDonald's All-Americans. I am pretty sure HC Roy Williams is going to make it perfectly clear that NC does not get pasted by 26 and lose by 9 at home to the Miami Hurricanes. This game is not a home-game, but I am sure they will have decent crowd support. Again. I said yesterday I wasn't that sold on Miami, and that hasn't changed in a day. NC in a championship game getting points. Count me in. 10* NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS
|
|||||||
03-17-13 | Virginia Commonwealth +3 v. St. Louis | Top | 56-62 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Taking VCU here. We cashed with these guys yesterday as a Top 10* and will be right back to them again today. It is very, VERY tough not to back STL because they are on a monster ATS run. But this is not some bottom-feeder of a team. VCU is an experienced bunch who has won a couple conference tournaments before and has had recent NCAA tourney success. So this is nothing new to them. What is new is STL dismantling them by 16 a month ago. Shaka Smart will have this team focused and ready to play here. You can never go wrong getting points with a team that plays defense and pressures the ball like VCU. 10* VCU
|
|||||||
03-16-13 | Oregon -1.5 v. UCLA | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Taking OREGON here. So we have Oregon favored over ranked UCLA in California. I'm in. Oregon won the only meeting this year by 9 at UCLA. UCLA lost talented G Jordan Adams and his 15ppg. That is a big loss and void to fill on short notice. This UCLA team is young, so I can see them falling flat here. 5* OREGON
|
|||||||
03-16-13 | Ohio v. Akron | Top | 46-65 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Taking OHIO here. Have had these guys all year long. They were great early. Hurt us in the middle. Made us money yesterday. Was it really going to be a surprise to see these two teams here. Both went 15-2 in conference. Akron did win both h2h games. But this is a different Zips team without their starting PG, assist leader and 3rd leading scorer in Abreu. This Ohio team is heavy with seniors and juniors. This is it for them. Last year they went to the Sweet Sixteen. They don't want to end their careers going to the NIT after what they did last year. CJ Cooper is a great G and I will put this team on his back to get them to the NCAAs. 10* OHIO BOBCATS
|
|||||||
03-16-13 | Massachusetts v. Virginia Commonwealth -8 | Top | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Taking VCU here. 3rd straight game here for UMASS. I have to think that they will lose their legs at some point facing the VCU pressure. VCU won by 18 nearly a month ago. I can't see how Umass will be able to solve 24 TOs to 9. Even yesterday they turned the ball 19 times. They won't be hitting 49% of their shots to save them either. Rams get it done in a big way here. 10* VCU
|
|||||||
03-16-13 | NC State +2.5 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Taking NC STATE here. Going right back to these guys. I told you yesterday I was high on these guys. This team was actually a pre-season Top 10 team. You know I don't latch on to rankings, but I do believe in what others think of talent on paper. And this team has a bunch of it. I think their front court is better than Miami's and their backcourt is getting better by the minute. Miami won this years only meeting 79-78 on a last second tip in. So we have that revenge angle working for us for whatever that is worth. Again, I know that everyone is all warm and fuzzy inside over the 'Canes, but I think they over achieved, while NC State under achieved. I think the NCST is going to make some noise this March. 5* NC STATE
|
|||||||
03-15-13 | San Diego St +1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Taking SAN DIEGO STATE here. I do like Steve Alford's crew, but I am going Aztecs here. These two split this year. Aztecs were the conference pre-season favorites but slipped into 4th place. No love lost between these for sure. Last year New Mexico (we had them as a 10*) beat SDST for the tournament championship. I am going with the small upset here and payback with the Aztecs. 5* SAN DIEGO STATE
|
|||||||
03-15-13 | Iowa State +6 v. Kansas | Top | 73-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Taking IOWA STATE here. Had a big 10* on Iowa State when these guys met last time. What a brutal loss that was. So we have a great revenge angle from that game. Fact is, this Iowa State can play with the Jayhawks. They are 5-2 ATS last 7 in this series, and with a pair off OT losses this year at the hands of Kansas, I look for them to finally get over that hump today. 5* IOWA STATE
|
|||||||
03-15-13 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Back for 3 in a row on SYRACUSE. So yesterday we were catching 2 from Pitt, and today we get the same from a much better Hoyas team. I know, you know and the line-maker know that SU has double revenge from this season. Georgetown ended SU's 38 home win streak, then held them to 39 points. Georgetown also has owned this series of late going 5-1 ATS last 6. What we have in 'Cuse is a dynamic player now in Southerland who is just on another planet. His 3pt shooting is the kind of stuff that made Jerry McNamara legend here. That's the kind of play that carries teams in March. Southerland has scored at least 20 in 3 of his last 4. The 1 game he didn't. The 39pt showing vs GT. He had 1pt. I think Boeheim is looking to leave the Big East with a title in hand and will have his kids ready here. 5* SYRACUSE
|
|||||||
03-15-13 | NC State -2 v. Virginia Cavaliers | Top | 75-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Taking NC STATE here. Virginia beat these guys back in January. That was a prime let-down spot as NCST was off a big win over North Carolina. They lost by 3. Pretty simple for me here. I had NCST as a sleeper Final Four team to start the year. I think they have the talent to get there. They don't have depth, but their top 6 are as good as anyone in the nation. 5* NC STATE
|
|||||||
03-15-13 | Illinois v. Indiana -9.5 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Taking INDIANA here. Yeah. A rare near double digit fave for me. But I am not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. We get revenge for a 74-72 loss a little over a month ago. Indiana head and shoulders better than then Illini. I think Indiana will be looking to really lay out a near perfect game here. They limped to a 2-2 to end the year. Now they get the Illini, off a huge last second win. A game where they shot 32%! And won. A game they were up 25-16 at he half, shot 24% from 3, and were out hustled on the boards by 12!. I guess when you only turn the ball over 5 times you can eek that out. Indiana is going to be going 110% here. I doubt Illinois comes out swinging and I can nearly guarantee they will have more than 5 TOs in the first half alone. Hoosiers in a No-Doubt Rout $ 10* INDIANA HOOSIERS
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Taking WESTERN MICHIGAN here. Another team that will be faded based on schedule is Eastern Michigan. Again, this team limped to the finish in the regular season. Identical story to Buffalo squeaking by in conference tourney Game 1 by a point, before pulling a mild upset yesterday. Western already lost to this team and played a close game vs them in their other match-up. It won't be any kind of look-ahead situation. 5* WESTERN MICHIGAN
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | Arkansas -3 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Taking ARKANSAS here. Not sure why my dumb butt didn't grab these guys last night at 2. A great revenge spot for the Razorbacks. We had Arkansas when they upset Florida then immediately flipped the script and whacked Vandy as a Top 10* over them in a fade situation. Pay-Day $ I think that the Razorbacks are the better team here. They also are clearly a bubble team 19 wins, but I would think that even with a 'down' Kentucky team, a SEC 20 win, 11 conference win team would sneak in. I don't think that HC Mike Anderson wants to end this NCAA drought. (last made 2008)10* ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | Nebraska v. Purdue -7 | Top | 57-55 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Taking PURDUE here. Just going to ride the better team here. Purdue playing inspired ball to close out the year. They won at Wiscy as 2-TD underdogs, battled to a cover and 5pt loss at Michigan after that big win, then beat Minny as a small dog. Their FT shooting is worries me a little, but Cornhuskers are 1-10 last 11 on the road and I can't see them mustering much of a fight here. 5* PURDUE
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | Buffalo v. Kent State -3 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Taking KENT STATE here. Going to fade surging Buffalo here. 3rd tourney game in 4 nights. They came limping into the tournament dropping 3 of 4. They squeaked past CMU in OT, then handled Ball State. I think the tank is empty here. They won't be getting 36 from any 1 player tonight. Kent is 4-1-1 ATS last 6 in the series. Kent also on a 6-1-1 ATS run last 8 overall. 5* KENT STATE
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | Syracuse +2 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Coming right back on SYRACUSE here. This has to be a joke with them catching points. They didn't cover for us yesterday, but that is because they basically took half off and nearly covered the double digits. Don't be fooled by the losses for Syracuse and the wins for Pitt to end the year. Syracuse lost to the top Big East teams, while Pitt beat, mediocre at best middle-level teams. I don't expect SU to allow 51% shooting, nor do I expect them to hit 56% of their shots either. But for them catching points, I will gladly jump on this ship and ride it to the ticket window. 5* SYRACUSE
|
|||||||
03-14-13 | BOISE STATE +4 v. SAN DIEGO STATE | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Taking BOISE STATE here. Listen. Don't be fooled by the San Diego State hype. Yes they were periodically ranked in the Top 25. Yes, they are a good team. Yes, they are probably one of the Top 68 teams in the land. But NO, they are not winning today. Boise outright +165 if you want it to go along with the points. Both of these guys finished 9-7 in conference. These guys split their games this year. Both have identical 21-9 records. Boise is 4-1 ATS last 5 in the series. Broncos 6-0 ATS last 6 vs Mountain West, while SDST is 0-4 ATS their last 4 vs MWC. I was thinking Boise had a chance to win this tournament before hand, so I will gladly grab them catching a couple points. 10* BOISE STATE
|
|||||||
03-13-13 | Rice v. Houston -11 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Taking HOUSTON here. We had these guys last time out and the whipped Rice by 22 on the road. What has changed? Absolutely nothing! Rice has mailed it in. They have lost 10 straight and 12 of 13. You think they are showing up here tonight? 1-15 in conference, 0-3 on neutral courts and 0-11 on the road. They get outscored by 11 a game and out rebounded by 10. They are one of the worse shooting teams in the country. 'nuff said. 10* HOUSTON COUGARS
|
|||||||
03-12-13 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota St +1.5 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Taking SOUTH DAKOTA STATE here. Like this Jackrabbits team. Have cashed on them a couple times this season, and here is another great spot. SDST 4-0 ATS last 4 in this series. North Dakota State got a little revenge from last years tourney loss as they beat Western Ill. Western upset them as 16 point dogs last year. Maybe they used up some of the gas from the tank. SDST is looking to repeat as conference champs and go back to the NCAAs. This is a home game for the Jackrabbits where they went 14-0 SU. At this price, we have to take the guys with the best player on the floor and that is Nate Wolters. They guy averages over 22ppg 5.5 boards and nearly 6 assists. He makes everyone better. 5* SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
|
|||||||
03-11-13 | Saint Marys CA v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Taking GONZAGA here. Had the Zags over these guys both times this year and will roll out the hat-trick here in the Championship game. Listen. Most times, I am looking to fade the #1 team in the country. But the Zags are not your typical #1. This is a mid-major. A mid-major who has been knocking on the door for 10 years. Butler may have beat them to the Championship game, but make no mistake, this team coined 'mid-major cinderella'. Now, St Mary's is good and talented. I think they are already dancing. They do have some double revenge motivation. But the Zags bring huge motivation from last years WCC Championship game loss, a tough OT loss to boot. Added motivation for G Kevin Pangos who was 3-18 FG and 1-10 from 3pt range. You think he has forgotten that game? So we have the Zags looking to lock up the WCC title in revenge fashion and the #1 overall seed in the NCAAs. I really don't think they won't be motivated here. And let's not read to much into either teams last game. They are talented enough to know they were both looking ahead to this spot. 10* GONZAGA
|
|||||||
03-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -2 | Top | 93-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Taking the SPURS here. Great spot for SA as they get the Thunder off a home win over Boston in your 'Sunday Showcase.' While everyone will be falling over themselves to get down on the team they saw win yesterday getting points, we will quietly move heavily on the home team. The Spurs are coming off a 30 point home loss to Portland where they allowed 46 points in the 4th quarter while allowing the Trailblazers to shoot nearly 62% from the floor. SA will be focused and has the motivation to cover this easily. 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS
|
|||||||
03-11-13 | James Madison v. Northeastern -1 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Taking NORTHEASTERN here. This team is quietly good. They won the conference and beat James Madison this year. Huskies also 5-1 ATS last 6 in this series. This team is experienced and won't crack under the pressure here. 5* NORTHEASTERN HUSKIES
|
|||||||
03-10-13 | College of Charleston v. Elon +3 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Taking ELON here. I like this bunch. We have cashed several times on these guys already this year and will make them a Top Rated 10* to close out our night and our week. Everyone knows about Davidson in this conference. College of Charleston is another semi-popular mid-major name. But don't sell this Elon team short. These guys took care of business in the North Division. When they both faced Davidson at home, both lost, but Elon played the closer game. Now, I normally don't do that but we have to look at their one common, tough opponent. H2H these guys last 2 games have been a 2pt game a 1pt OT thriller. Before that, all Charleston. Again. I feel that Elon has improved drastically and they are a solid club. I think we have a little better FT shooters in our rotation, and that can easily be the difference here. 10* ELON
|
|||||||
03-09-13 | Illinois State +3 v. Wichita State | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
5* Illinois State
|
|||||||
03-08-13 | Kent State +9 v. Akron | Top | 68-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Taking KENT STATE here. Kent with some revenge and payback on the agenda tonight. Akron has won 5 straight vs these guys. But, Akron will be without their assist leader tonight as he has been suspended after being arrested on drug charges. That is a huge blow. You just can't come walking into March and face a good team like Kent without your floor leader. This is a good spot for the Golden Flashes to catch a surprised Akron team without one of their important players. 10* KENT STATE
|
|||||||
03-06-13 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Taking IOWA STATE here. Cyclones in their final home game. Now, you know I like when we have a home team giving points to those 'better', 'ranked' teams for whatever those rankings are worth. We have a great situation here with Iowa State. I had a big 10* on these guys and we had a horrible ending and OT vs Kansas. On cue, they were flat and laid an egg on the road right after that loss. Okie State is locked into the Big 12 3 seed and have a final home game vs Kansas State on deck. Cyclones 5-1 ATS last 6 at home while Okie State is just 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road vs teams with +600 win %.. Cyclones fit that bill at .655% overall.. Plus at 15-1 at home this year (OT loss vs Kansas), these guys will not let the refs get in the way of a big win. 5* IOWA STATE
|
|||||||
03-06-13 | Tulane v. East Carolina -3.5 | Top | 85-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Taking EAST CAROLINA here. Pirates have a solid little bunch here. This is a nice play here. I like to play teams at home off of 3 straight road games. We also get Tulane in a B2B spot and a tough OT game to boot. Tulane nothing special on the road at 3-8. ECU tough here in conference as they have lost to all 3 teams ahead of them. But those are an OT loss to So. Miss, a 7 point loss to Memphis (down 1 at half) and a 1pt loss to UTEP. They have taken care of business vs the lesser teams. Can't see them not doing that here as they are still battling for tournament seeding. ECU 13-3-2 ATS last 18 vs CUSA teams, 9-3-2 ATS last 14 overall, 4-0-2 ATS last 6 at home and 3-0-1 ATS last 4 at home vs Tulane. 5* EAST CAROLINA
|
|||||||
03-03-13 | Miami Heat -4 v. New York Knicks | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Taking the MIAMI HEAT here. 1. I can't stand the Knicks. They have blasted Miami twice this year to the tune of a pair of 20pt wins. 2. I don't think they are that good. 3. Wade is finally hitting a big groove the last 3-4 games. That, and the way LeBron has been playing. I think this Heat team is just what it has been it's last 13 games. Unbeatable. 4. Back to a pair of 20pt losses. You don't think this Miami bunch knows this? I'm a dog guy as you know. Home dogs with trends in their favor look like simple 'no-brainers' sometimes. But in this case. The Heat are the superior team playing great, with a double revenge blow-out angle working in their favor. Let's go favorite hunting and back this group here early Sunday. 5* MIAMI HEAT
|
|||||||
03-02-13 | Valparaiso v. Wisconsin-Green Bay -2 | Top | 75-56 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Taking GREEN BAY here. One of those spots where we see the conference fave, in this case Valpo, sitting at 23-7 catching points here. Plenty of the recent trends at home and on the road work out to basically a wash between these two teams. But Green Bay is 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series and at home. The Phoenix also has revenge from their January loss against Valpo. Valpo already has a share of the Horizon Title locked in place. But Green Bay needs this win to hang on to the #3 seed. GB is 33-8 last 41 games at home. Great spot for the homers laying a small number. 10* WISC GREEN BAY
|
|||||||
03-02-13 | Memphis v. Central Florida +7 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Taking CENTRAL FLORIDA here. Final home game for the Knights. These guys are ineligible so this is their title game. No problem for them to get pumped up as Memphis rolled these guys 93-71 back on 2/13. Will gladly take the points here and would not be shocked if we score and outright W. 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA
|
|||||||
02-25-13 | Kansas v. Iowa State +1 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
Taking IOWA STATE here. Have to love the small dogs here. It is a shame that this team is not even ranked. But it will be popping up on everyone's radar after winning this Big Monday contest tonight. First, we have the fact that Kansas is just 1-5 ATS last 6 in this series. Cyclones have won 22 straight here at home and 31 of 33 the last 2 years. Jayhawks 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road. Iowa State 5-0 ATS last 5 at home and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall. Kansas needed OT back in January to get past these guys at home. I like that Iowa State has plenty of depth, and you know that this place will be rocking tonight. I am sure 'The Mayor', Cyclones coach Fred Hoiberg will remind the officials that Kansas went to the FT line 38 times in that home win while Iowa State saw just 20 tries. Iowa State did fire up 38, yes 38 three pointers that game (14 made). Like I said earlier, they basically have 6 double digit scores and can score from anywhere on the court. Huge game for them, and I know they will get us to window tonight with a outright W. ~ 10* IOWA STATE
|
|||||||
02-19-13 | LSU +8 v. Tennessee | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Taking LSU. I will roll out a BEST BET here on the Tigers. First, we have the Vols off a huge 30pt win over Kentucky. Talk about shooting your load. Tennessee hit 58% of their shots, 80% at the FT line (68% on the year). Absolutely no place to go but down after that. We get LSU here who 4-1 ATS last 5 here in Tennessee and 7-2 ATS last 9 in the series. The underdog is also on a 7-1 ATS run last 8. LSU is 6-2 ATS last 8 overall, while the Vols are 2-6 ATS last 8 at home. Will grab the points here. 5* LSU TIGERS
|
|||||||
02-19-13 | Wichita State v. Indiana St +3 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Will grab INDIANA STATE here. I thought I had a victory in hand over Wichita on Sunday night before some crazy kung-fu rebounding. Regardless. That was a big come back win for the Shockers and they will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here. Indiana State beat these guys by 13 on the road as +12 dogs (we had them) and will get it done here as small pups. The are undefeated here at home in conference play. They crushed ranked Creighton by 21. The crowd will be pumped up and Wichita is only 1-4 ATS last 5 road games. This is a veteran team and shouldn't be overlooked. 5* INDIANA STATE
|
|||||||
02-12-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Taking GOLDEN STATE as my NBA GOW. Great spot for us here on the Warriors. Back from an 0-4 road trip for starters. Then we add to the fact that Houston crushed Golden State to the tune of 140-109 back on the 5th. Um, revenge anyone. 140! Houston made I think 23 3pt shots. That is not happening here. Warriors 16-6 at home, Rockets 10-17 on the road. Houston 3-9 ATS last 12 on the road. Home team 8-2 ATS last 10 in the series, favorite on 8-1 ATS run last 9. 10* GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
|
|||||||
02-11-13 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Taking CHARLOTTE here. Ok. My NBA has been far from stellar lately. I still can't pass on this game. Fist, we have Boston reeling off 7 straight wins and covers. Public all over the Celtics. It is also a b2b for the not so young Celtics. Finally, the line opened at 5 and is dropping like a rock. I see 3.5's now. Boston 4-11 ATS last 15 road games. Bobcats score 76 last game on 30% shooting. Can't be any worse than that. 5* CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
|
|||||||
02-08-13 | Los Angeles Clippers +3 v. Miami Heat | Top | 89-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Taking the CLIPPERS here tonight. Just feel we are in a good spot here. We could be getting Chris Paul back, but more importantly, it looks like a couple Heat players might not be suiting up. Early reports have Wade, Bosh and Allen as suffering from the flu. Regardless, even if they do play, they will be less than 100%. Normally I wouldn't play on the Clips with them in this long road trip. But the public perception of the Heat forces my hand here. LA has won 6 of the last 9 in the series, and catching points will just be a bonus here. With their floor-leader and MVP candidate leading the way, Clippers should be very motivated here. 5* LA CLIPPERS
|
|||||||
02-07-13 | California +4.5 v. Arizona St | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Taking the CAL BEARS here. Will gladly grab Cal and the points. Cal 10-1 ATS last 11 here at Arizona State and 4-1 ATS last 5 overall. The underdog is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Road team on a 16-5 ATS run. 10* CAL BEARS
|
|||||||
02-05-13 | Boston College +13.5 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 50-72 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Taking BOSTON COLLEGE here. Will fade away on Miami Florida here. They are off a big win over NC State and have North Carolina on deck. This 'Heels team might not be a vintage NC bunch, but this name still generates hatred from all other ACC teams. 'Canes also have run off 9 straight wins. So we have the Eagles here in a sandwich catching double digits. Underdog and road team both on 5-2 ATS runs last 7 in the series. Boston College 7-3 ATS last 10 here in Miami. BC also 7-3 ATS last 10 overall. 5* BOSTON COLLEGE
|
|||||||
02-05-13 | Central Michigan +19.5 v. Akron | Top | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Taking CENTRAL MICHIGAN here. I'll go ugly again here with the Chippewas. This is a straight fade of Akron off their beating of Ohio. Can't see the Zips maintaining the needed level of play for a 20pt win here. Now you know, 95% of the time when we take dogs, we take them to win outright. In this spot though, I think we hang within 10 most of the game. 5* CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
|||||||
02-05-13 | Youngstown State -2.5 v. Cleveland State | Top | 60-66 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Taking YOUNGSTOWN here. Penguins in off a tough 10pt loss to Detroit. I think that will add to their hunger here. I think the Penguins are a pretty solid unit. Only 2 games behind Valp for the conference lead. At 5-4, this is a must win if they are to do anything come March. Penguins 4-1-1 ATS last 6 in the series and a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 trips to Cleveland State. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 4 overall and vs Horizon league opponents. 10* YOUNGSTOWN STATE
|
|||||||
02-02-13 | Kentucky -5.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 72-68 | Loss | -117 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
Taking the KENTUCKY WILDCATS here. I have played against this team early and often this year. But I have laid low with them for the last month +. But I will gladly lay the points here. A&M pulled off a huge upset in January by beating UK at home. How huge? Try it was Coach Cal's 2nd loss in 61 games at home. 61-2! Wildcats seem to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Difference maker for me is Nerlens Noel in the middle. The kid is blocking shots like a monster right now. The last 6 games, 45 blocks! He has really turned a corner with his ability of late. Lay it. 10* KENTUCKY WILDCATS
|
|||||||
01-30-13 | New Mexico -1 v. Wyoming | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
Taking NEW MEXICO here. Wow. We had Creighton as a Top Perfect-Storm 10* the other night. That was a blow-out winner. I think this game, is going to be EASIER than that 30 point money maker. I like both of these teams. We have cashed over the last 2 years with these teams several times. But I am going ALL IN here on the Lobos. Off a pathetic performance, scoring 34 points! 25% from the field. 11 FGs. This team is A LOT better than that. Wyoming has been having problems scoring since they lost Martinez. It won't get any easier against New Mexico. Lobos 8-2 SU last 10 in this series, 3-1 SU L4. Steve Alford will make damn sure his team is 100% focused here. NM is 20-7 ATS last 27 in conference play. Wyoming is notoriously strong at home, but I feel this is just a bad spot for them. Last time these 2 played in 2/12, it was real ugly 48-38 Lobos. Both teams have already played their ugly games. New Mexico is coming off it, while Wyoming lost 49-36 at Fresno back on 1-16. They promptly won here at home 58-45 over San Diego State, who just beat New Mexico 55-34! Again, normally not a fan of laying a small number with road teams, especially a ranked one. But Alford's group is at, or near the top of the Mountain West. While Wyoming is trying to find itself after losing a top scorer. 10* NEW MEXICO LOBOS (bonus play - if you can find a total, I think the Under is absolutely worth a look.. rate that as a 5* Selection)
|
|||||||
01-29-13 | Northern Iowa +1 v. Evansville | Top | 51-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Taking NORTHERN IOWA here. Evansville has already beaten this guys this year. But my thinking is pretty simple. I just think the Panthers are the better team. That is it. They have played a tougher schedule. They have more depth. They have more balanced scoring. Panthers do have a big home game up next vs conference leader Wichita State. But I can't see them looking ahead. Purple Aces scored a victory a couple weeks ago. Northern Iowa cannot let this game slip away. 5* NORTHERN IOWA
|
|||||||
01-27-13 | Creighton -11 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 81-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Taking CREIGHTON here. What a perfect storm here for Creighton. It might get ugly real fast for Souther Illinois. Blue Jays with 2 straight road losses and are in a close-out road game here. Regardless, the Blue Jays are a legit Top 10 team, and a Top 10 team puts away a lesser team when need be. And it NEEDS to be here for Creighton. They have a 5-15 team on deck, so there is no worry of looking ahead to home. They need to keep pace with Wichita State if they want to win this conference outright. Creighton 5-0 ATS last 5 overall and 7-0 ATS last 7 here in Southern Illinois. Road team 21-7 ATS last 28. Added bonus of Salukis 2nd leading scorer being suspended here. Blue Jays 13-4 ATS after a SU loss. 10* CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS
|
|||||||
01-26-13 | Northwestern v. Nebraska +2 | Top | 49-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
5* Nebraska
|
|||||||
01-26-13 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State -2 | Top | 53-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
5* South Dakota State
|
|||||||
01-23-13 | Wright State v. Youngstown State -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
Taking YOUNGSTOWN STATE here. Like this Penguins bunch in this spot. More importantly, we are loving Wright State playing their 4th straight conference road game. Added bonus is their last game was a huge 2pt UPSET of Detroit as 11pt underdogs. No place to go but down off that big win. Home team 8-3-1 ATS last 12 in this series. Youngstown 5-0-1 ATS last 6 at home vs the Raiders and 5-0 ATS last 5 overall in the series. 10* YOUNGSTOWN STATE PENGUINS
|
|||||||
01-19-13 | UNLV v. Colorado St -3 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
Taking COLORADO STATE here. You know I love my unranked teams giving to a 'ranked' team. Rams 8-2 ATS last 10 vs Mountain West. Colorado State also on a 11-3 ATS run last 14 at home. UNLV checks in 3-14 ATS last 17 on the road. Rams get it done. 5* COLORADO STATE
|
|||||||
01-19-13 | Syracuse v. Louisville -7 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Taking LOUISVILLE here. UL has dominated the series lately. 6-0-1 ATS last 7 here at home and 7-1-1 ATS last 9 overall. Orange 3-8 ATS last 11 vs Big East. UL 7-1 ATS last 8 vs Big East. 5* LOUISVILLE
|
|||||||
01-17-13 | South Florida +5 v. Rutgers | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
5* South Florida
|
|||||||
01-16-13 | New Mexico v. Boise State -2 | Top | 79-74 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Taking BOISE STATE here. Could have easily made this my 2nd Top Rated 10* tonight to go along with Maryland. But we will label this a Best Bet and still collect our winnings. Again, ranked team getting from 'unranked' team will always grab a selection from me. We have Boise, off a win over then ranked Wyoming, when it was down a 4 players. Now they get 3 of those players back and are basically at full strength. New Mexico beat Boise twice last year, so maybe they overlook them here. Lobos have a revenge home game up next vs Colorado State. Boise 7-2 ATS last 9 overall and the home crowd should be pumped up with a ranked team coming to town. 5* BOISE STATE
|
|||||||
01-16-13 | NC State v. Maryland Terrapins -1.5 | Top | 50-51 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Taking MARYLAND here. Yes. Back to the Terps. We lost a tough 10* on them Sunday by a point. Well we catch them again in a nice situation. Obviously there is no rest for the weary here. They lost by 7 in Miami, now they face a tough NC State team off a big win over then #1 Duke. (we had NC State Saturday) So we get the Wolfpack in a prime let-down situation, plus the fact we have another angle I love. The old unranked team favored over the ranked team. Let's sprinkle some more positive trends our ways. Maryland is 5-1 ATS last 6 at home over NC State and 10-1 ATS last 11 in the series. 10* MARYLAND
|
|||||||
01-14-13 | Louisville -7 v. Connecticut | Top | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Taking LOUISVILLE here. Cards a legit Final Four threat. Their defense is top-notch. Huskies a young team and are off a big road win at Notre Dame. Can't see them getting to the glass enough to stop UL. Cards are 5-1 ATS last 6 in this series and 4-0-1 ATS last 5 trips here at UConn. UL 6-1 ATS last 7 vs Big East teams and 9-2 ATS last 11 overall. 5* LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
|
|||||||
01-13-13 | Maryland Terrapins +6 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 47-54 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Taking MARYLAND here. Hurricanes off a big win over NC. Listen. I know Carolina isn't a top ranked team anymore, but when you knock off the Tarheels regardless of their record, there will be a let-down the next game. Underdog 9-3 ATS last 12 in the series and Terps 5-1 ATS last 6 in the series. 10* MARYLAND
|
|||||||
01-09-13 | Minnesota -1.5 v. Illinois | Top | 84-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Taking MINNESOTA U here. Illini off a HUGE near 20pt win over Ohio State. It is going to be tough to get charged up in this spot, even if Minnesota is a ranked team coming into play. Tubby Smith has a healthy bunch and this team is quietly very good. I am going to throw out the h2h trends here. I just don't think the Illini will be able to keep Minny of the glass. Illinois is 3-13 ATS last 16 vs Big 10 teams. Minny 6-0 ATS last 6 vs Big Ten, 8-0 ATS last 8 on the road and 16-5-1 ATS last 22 overall. These teams split last year, eaching winning at home in OT. I think Gophers are better this year, and will get us the money here tonight. 10* MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
|
|||||||
01-01-13 | Hofstra v. Florida Atlantic -8.5 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
5* Florida Atlantic
|
|||||||
12-30-12 | Northern Iowa +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 41-66 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Taking NORTHERN IOWA here. Don't be fooled by that 11-1 record. Wichita State is banged up here. This game is a pick at best. This is going to be a SU win for the Panthers this afternoon. We have double revenge from last year, including a 25pt loss here. Northern Iowa has played a tough non-conference schedule already. They have a nice senior led team. Again, these guys returned 4 of 5 starters and 12 of 13 players from last year. Time for them to take the next step here and knock off the banged-up Shockers. 10* NORTHERN IOWA
|
|||||||
12-28-12 | Missouri v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Taking UCLA here. Right out the gate I see unranked team favored over ranked team. The public bettors will be all over Missouri here. Would not be shocked at all to see this number come done. Won't matter here. Cause at 2.5 or 1 or even us giving 5, I think we are on the correct side. We made nice money fading UCLA earlier. Here though, I think they have too much size for the Tigers. Everyone is down on this team. We had Cal-Irvine vs these guys and cashed. We had Cal-Poly and cashed. But this team is good. Let's not forget they were ranked in the Top 15 to start the year. There were some off-court issues. Guys not playing. Whatever. They are home. I don't trust Missouri here. They are off a nice win over the Illini of Illinois. Missouri ranked as high as #7 in the AP, #9 in USA Today. This is the type of game HC Ben Howland will have his kids ready for. Bruins need a big win with conference play starting. Time to show everyone why they were a Top 15 team to start the year. It starts with a home win over a Top 10 team tonight. 10* UCLA BRUINS
|
|||||||
12-19-12 | Montana -2.5 v. Northern Arizona | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Taking MONTANA here. Grizzlies off to a slow start at 4-4. They had been without their best player, guard Will Cherry, a 2-time All-Big Sky player. He came back last game for 13 minutes and contributed just 2 points. The bigger thing is that he played some minutes and the team will be glad to have their leader back. G Kareem Jamar and F Mathias Ward both are averaging 15ppg. This team won 25 games last year and 15-1 in conference play. They are the team to beat here in the Big Sky. I have Northern Arizona, with a new HC and being led by a freshman pegged for a bottom tier-team. Northern Arizona actually has matched their conference win total from last year with a win over Montana State. I expect Montana, who is 13-5 ATS last 18 vs Big Sky teams, to get it done. Road team on a 4-1 ATS run here. Also, Northern Arizona are 3-11-2 ATS last 16 vs Big Sky and 4-11-2 ATS last 17 at home. 10* MONTANA
|
|||||||
12-18-12 | Denver v. Wyoming -8.5 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Taking WYOMING here. Big number again. And I do like the Pioneers. But the Cowboys have caught my eye already this season as we cashed on them earlier. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in this series. Denver has looked like garbage all year. 3 wins.. 2 of those, 68-51 over Texas A&M CC and 82-47 over Nebraska Omaha shouldn't even count. I know teams play cream puffs. But, Wyoming has actually beaten some of their 'real' teams this year. Their 15pt win on the road vs a tough Illinois State team shows me the Cowboys are legit. If my CBB hasn't been in a .500 slide recently, I would have probably went all-in here with a 10* play on Wyoming. 5* WYOMING COWBOYS
|
|||||||
12-12-12 | Colorado -4 v. Fresno State | Top | 50-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Taking COLORADO here. Had these guys vs Kansas and they got run out of the building. 90-54! 90-54 and it was on some ESPN channel. Listen. If I ever lost a game like that, you can bet your sweet ass that next game my teammates and I are going to come out with something to prove. I still think the Buffs are a good team. Buffs won last meeting nearly a year to the day by 7 at home. I think this team is as good, while Fresno has taken a step back. If Colorado doesn't win by double digits I would be shocked. 10* COLORADO
|
|||||||
12-06-12 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -6.5 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Taking the MIAMI HEAT here. Nice revenge spot for the reigning champs. They are catching the Knicks in a b2b, and a last second win. NYK rolled by 20 back in their MSG season opener. Remember that? Wade and some other Heat members wanted to know why they were playing because it took them 4 hours or whatever to get from the airport to MSG because of the Super-Storm Sandy damage. Well, this is in South Beach. The Heat will want to get that taste out of their mouths because this is a cocky Knicks team. I don't expect them to hit 19-36 (53%) from 3. Home team 5-1 ATS last 6 in series. Favorite 6-2 ATS last 8 in the series. Knicks 2-6 ATS last 8 in the series and 0-4 ATS last 4 trips into Miami. 5* MIAMI HEAT
|
|||||||
12-05-12 | Charlotte U v. Davidson -8 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Taking DAVIDSON here. This is a team with all 5 returning starters back and one that took a 23pt loss to this Charlotte team last year. Well here comes the pay-back. Davidson 11-2-1 ATS last 14 at home. Don't be fooled by the undefeated Charlotte team. A bunch of cream puffs. Here is a tough roadie, with big-time revenge. Davidson by 15+ ... 10* DAVIDSON
|
|||||||
11-29-12 | Kentucky v. Notre Dame -1 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Taking the IRISH here. ND the more experienced team. We have faded Kentucky twice and are a perfect 2-0 playing on Maryland and Duke. Here is another opportunity to build our bankrolls. Young Wildcats come to a tough home court. Irish solid defensively and on the glass. People need to stop thinking this is last years Kentucky team. They will get better as the season goes on. But these games early vs experienced, deep teams. They are going to be learning curves. ND gets it done. 10* NOTRE DAME
|
|||||||
11-24-12 | Louisville -1 v. Duke | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Taking LOUISVILLE here. I am going ML -120, but you might be able to find a pk if you shop around. At 1.5, why bother, just go ML. Listen. This Louisville team is deep, experienced and ready to rumble. I don't think this is a very good Duke team. They are not as talented nor as deep as UL. UL also plays better defense. I think UL is a legit title contender and a Top 5 team. I cannot say the same about the Blue Devils. Look for UL to try to make a statement tonight against Duke. 10* LOUISVILLE
|
|||||||
11-23-12 | UAB v. Illinois State -7 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Taking ILLINOIS STATE here. I am not high on this UAB team at all. I think they are playing over their heads right now, as a team I have ranked near, or at the bottom of C-USA. Illinois State will be looking to battle Creighton for the Missouri Valley Championship. Redbirds return 4 of 5 starters from last year's team that lost to Creighton in the MVC Championship game. We saw UAB vs Creighton this year. They led at the half. But the inexperienced showed up with a pair of huge runs. 15-3 that Creighton used to take a 2pt lead. Then a 20-2 run to cover late to cover a 15pt spread. Illinois State is clicking on offense averaging over 90ppg. They are not taking any team for granted. If this game is within 10 points I will be shocked. 10* ILLINOIS STATE
|
|||||||
11-19-12 | Rider v. South Carolina -7 | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Taking SOUTH CAROLINA here. I like the new HC. Frank Martin did a great job at Kansas State, and I expect immediate results here with the Gamecocks. I think Rider takes a step back this year, while SC has nowhere to go but up. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA
|
|||||||
11-18-12 | Valparaiso -1 v. Kent State | Top | 88-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Taking VALPO here. Coming right back on this team. Told you why the first time, and it doesn't change here. In fact, I like them MORE here. In a battle of mid-majors, I'm backing the one favored to win their conference. Valpo has reigning Horizon POY on their team, plus size up front, and depth in the back-court. Kent State returns just 1 starter from last season, and it will be a tough run this year. 5* VALPO
|
|||||||
11-18-12 | Akron -5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Taking AKRON here. Zips have been to the MAC Championship game 7 straight times. I will take a solid mid-major over a bottom rung big conference team all the time, especially when they are laying some chalk. Akron returns 4 starters including shot-blocking Defensive POY Zeke Marshall who should put doubts in Penn State's leading scorer, 6'1 PG Tim Frazier about coming inside. This Zips team more depth then PSU, and are right now just the better team. 5* AKRON ZIPS
|
|||||||
11-16-12 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Mississippi -15.5 | Top | 52-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Taking MISSISSIPPI here. Nearly pulled this out as a Top 10* but I still have a bad taste in my mouth from Georgia last night. What's to say? Ole Miss brings back 4 starters and are a real physical team. They are big up front, and have experienced guard play. Always a must in the early goings. Arkansas LR lost 3 starters and 2 of their top 3 players. This team ranked last in FG% in the Sun Belt last year and will need time to improve on that number. 5* MISSISSIPPI
|
|||||||
11-16-12 | Mercer -1 v. George Mason | Top | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
Taking MERCER here. 4 starters back and 11 overall back for Mercer. These guys went 27-11 and won the collegeinsider tournament last year beating some decent mid-majors (Georgia State, Old Dom, Utah State and Fairfield.) This is a big game for a smaller program. They proved last year they could play with the mids. 5* MERCER
|
|||||||
11-15-12 | Southern Mississippi v. Georgia -3 | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Taking GEORGIA here. We have Southern Miss breaking in a new coach and have to replace a ton of contributors. This a clear rebuilding year for the Golden Eagles. As for HC Mark Fox and the Bulldogs, they are looking to rebound from a poor year. They return 5 players with starters experience, and everyone is familiar with each other and the plays being called. You can't over look veteran teams early in the year, over teams playing their first few games. I would utterly shocked if this game is closer than double digits. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS
|