Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-22 | Heat -4.5 v. Knicks | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 244.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 10:10: Two underachievers going at it on their home floor. Lakers will be designated home team and the crowd is usually partial to the Lakers at The Staples Center. Clippers on an 0-5 ATS/1-4 SU slide but they do get Paul George back tonight. The Lakers, on a 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS run, will have LeBron James back as he cleared Covid19 protocol and that will help ignite the loaded talent roster of the Lakers. They've lost three straight in this series and tonight is the optimum time to get up another game in the standings on the Clippers and re-establish their presence as a serious contender in the Western Conference Pacific. We'll take a bucket with the Lakers. |
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12-02-21 | Bucks v. Raptors +5 | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Bucks/Raptors 7:40: Red hot Bucks won its 8th straight game last night in a 127-125 thriller at home vs Charlotte. Following that emotional win, the Bucks have to travel to Toronto unrested to face a pissed off Toronto team that's lost 3 straight and sports a poor home floor mark of 1-9 ATS. Toronto, however, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark off 3 straight losses outgunning their opponent by an average of 13 PPG in that situation. Toronto has held their own in this series at 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings. And the Bucks sport a disappointing 1-5 ATS unrested. Sure, Toronto has its share of injuries but the Bucks are thin inside without Lopez (out). We'll look for Van Fleet and Siakam to lead a big effort here in Toronto. Take Toronto. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks have showed resilience off losses at 5-2 ATS and we'll grab them here. They won in Atlanta and then had a solid cover (SU loss) in Brooklyn led by Alec Burks. Burks took over the starting PG duties in place of Kemba Walker as announced Monday by Thibodeaux. Too early to tell if it's the right decision but NY has a pretty deep bench of playmakers including former Bull - Derrick Rose. Randle needs to continue to elevate his game like he did on November 21st (34 points) in the Knicks loss to successfully counter Vucevic. Bulls coming off big win over Charlotte on the 29th but kind of choppy off SU wins as of late at 1-3 ATS. Bulls are a good road favorite but 1-4 ATS on 2 days rest and 0-4 ATS at MSG. We'll take NY and the bucket. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 58 m | Show | |
Suns/Bucks 9:05: With the Suns' backs against the wall in a win or go home game, we'll look for Phoenix to deliver here. Suns 14-6 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 of last 5 games in Milwaukee. Giannis effort incredible down stretches and Phoenix will have to surely counter that. Suns shot the lights out in Game 5 yet still came up short despite a lackluster effort at the foul line for Milwaukee (53%). Phoenix knows what's at stake and the veteran presence of Chris Paul and Jae Crowder should support Booker well. Suns will need to step up defensive game and Ayton will have to show up strong. We'll bet on it. Suns the call. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | 123-119 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns clearly in Game 4 until the final moments when Giannis came up with the big block on Ayton. Booker, after a sluggish Game 3, played outstanding in Game 4 but Paul was sluggish and the rest of the Suns didn't assert themselves enough to close out a cover; however, back at their venue where they're 17-5 ATS vs teams above .500, we'll look for the urgency to come back for Phoenix. Phoenix the call. |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Suns/Bucks 8:05: Bucks out of their element at Phoenix. In Game 1 bricked free throws to the tune of 56% and failed to execute down the stretch. Game 2 shot a ridiculous 9 or 31 from 3 point land instead of attacking the rim where they had a degree of success. In Milwaukee, we'll look for their game to be more fluid. Giannis (62 combined points in Game 1 and 2) is showing no residual effects of his knee injury. Middleton and Holiday should now feed off Giannis and a more aggressive Lopez who is overdue to step up. Lay the buckets. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns worked Milwaukee on Monday despite little output offensively from veteran Jae Crowder (1 point) and Booker going 1 of 8 from perimeter. Paul came up large while Ayton won the battle of the big men down low with Lopez as the Suns got to the free throw line and delivered (96%). Giannis looked good but his mates were tentative on whether or not to shoot with him in the game. Milwaukee will surely be stepping up their intensity as they've done throughout playoffs off a loss; however, Suns have much room for improvement and I see them upping their game level as well. We'll grab Phoenix again in this spot. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns have covered 6 of last 7 in this series. Suns achieved narrow one point victories both games vs Milwaukee this year. Giannis turned in massive 33 and 47 point showings, respectively. Bucks did do a nice job with reserves in Game 6 vs Atlanta. Portis had a huge game and Connaughton was solid; moreover, Lopez did sensational, enabling Holiday and Middleton to do their thing successfully. Tonight, Suns a bit too savvy to take a back seat. Ayton can handle Lopez much better than Capella did. Crowder has that big game experience (Miami last year in Finals), and Booker overdue for another big game. Throw in veteran PG Paul to run the show and Bucks should wither down the stretch. |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Back to Atlanta, Young most likely back in action, no Giannis on the road makes way for a likely Game 7. Lopez was a monster in Game 5 and fueled the way for quality performances from Middleton, Holiday and Portis. But Bucks 1-6 ATS as a road dog and inconsistency with Bucks gives value back to Atlanta here. Reddish now in the fray gives that quality depth needed. Atlanta, 18-3 ATS as home chalk, the call. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +3 v. Bucks | 112-123 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Hawks/Bucks 8:35: At first glance, inkling to take Milwaukee on account that they've won without Giannis (out) on the floor before. However, disturbing that the Bucks were flat into Game 4 when had a chance to take command of series, especially with Atlanta's top player - Young - out. Tonight, most likely Young (bone bruise) will take the floor. Sure Capella (eye) and Bogdanovic (knee) are questionable but lean towards playing. Nevertheless, Okongwu, Reddish have proven to turn in quality minutes off the bench for the Hawks; moreover, Lou Williams proved he can still come off the bench with productivity. On the other hand, not sure if Portis, Connaughton or Forbes can make up the point void left without Giannis. Middleton and Holiday have been hot and cold under Budenholzer. And don't like the 0-4 ATS mark when the Bucks are off a 10+ point loss. Hawks 5-2 ATS as a road dog and we'll grab the points. |
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06-30-21 | Suns -102 v. Clippers | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:00: As anticipated in Game 5, Suns came out flat; consequently, Clippers jumped all over them early and sustained high energy throughout the game. Suns have the veteran leadership to counter effectively tonight. Suns need to work Ayton on pick and roll with a void in the Clippers lack of low post top tier players, especially with Zubac (knee) questionable. We'll look for a more intensified effort from veterans Paul and Crowder. Booker should continue to do what he does best - score. Not sure Clippers can top Game 5 effort. Suns need killer mentality and should deliver. |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 130-103 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Suns/Clippers 9:00: As expected in Game 5, shots that were bricking in Game 4 found their way in the basket in Game 5 to go "over" the adjusted down over/under (215). Tonight, back in Los Angeles where this series has gone 2-8 O/U. Now 5 of the last 7 in the series went "under". And Game 5 seemed like an easy "over" throughout 3.5 quarters but stalled out late to create a sweat. In Los Angeles, the last three games total output has accumulated 213, 198 and 164 respectively. Got some wiggle room with the total and considering the history of the scrums in this series in LA and that the Suns are 0-4 O/U off a SU loss, we'll stay "under". |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Hawks threw some haymakers early in Game 3 but the Bucks survived the assault and closed it out strong. Budenholzer decided to use his Big 3 virtually the entire game and it paid dividends. Wouldn't be surprised if Middleton, Giannis and Holiday go the duration again tonight. Atlanta's Young shut down after his ankle bone bruise (again, we're talking basketball players here). Wasn't effective at all in 4th quarter. And it's almost automatic when Giannis wants to take the ball to the rack as Capella is rendered useless; after all, Lopez does a bang up job in the low post on both ends of the floor. I like Collins but he has limited help down low. We'll look for the Bucks to pull away. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Clippers showed grit climbing back in Game 4 before falling down the stretch. Both teams shot horribly but Clippers managed to stumble worse in the scrum with pitiful numbers of 33% from floor, 16% from perimeter and an inexcusable 66% from free throw line. Tonight, with back against the wall and everything to lose, we'll look for a rejuvenated Clippers team despite the absence of Leonard (knee). Clippers are 16-7 ATS in this series, 5-1 ATS on Mondays and covered 4 of last 5 as a playoff dog. Clippers' HC Lue has made some decent adjustments, but needs Reggie Jackson back to his prime time ways. In addition, need George to show more ready for prime time play and Mann needs to shoot more. Clippers should leave it all out on the floor here. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Game 4 numbers were ugly. Suns were clanking to the tune of 36% from floor and 20% from 3 point range. That was good enough to whip a Clippers team shooting a brick laying 33%/16% and a disgraceful 66% from the free throw line considering they were #1 in free throw shooting % during regular season. Tonight, let's look for those rim rollers to align in the net; after all, this series has gone 10-4 O/U in Phoenix. And the 'total' has now dropped to a reachable 214. We'll look for the Clippers as the #1 three point shooting team in the NBA to play more relaxed. Phoenix should maintain their groove on their home floor. "Over" the call. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 113-102 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Hawks were awful in Game 2. There were promising moments as Cam Reddish got his first bit of action in four months and did OK. As for the rest of the Hawks - a step slow and a bucket short in each quarter. The second quarter was a complete disaster getting outscored 42-17! At home, we'll look for a different story. Hawks a strong 30-12-1 ATS at home off a SU loss and covered 20 of their last 26 home games. Bucks 1-5 ATS on the road vs a home team with home win % above .600. We'll look for Young and company to get their traction and hit some buckets tonight. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | 84-80 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-25-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | 91-125 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Hawks/Bucks 8:35: Hawks clearly not intimidated by the Bucks. Hawks now 5-1 ATS run as a road dog in the playoffs. In Game 1, Young went off to continue his excellent post-season; in addition, Collins was a great compliment. The good news is that there is room for improvement, especially from 3 point range (25%). And that could change if Bogdanovic and Gallinari get their perimeter range back. Nevertheless, the Hawks did a nice job adjusting when the long ball wasn't dropping. Trae Young was doing a great job dropping floaters and alley oop lobs. As for Milwaukee, similar box score numbers as they were a more pathetic 22% from 3 point range yet a solid 46% from floor. Defensively, however, Budenholzer not coming up with the defensive adjustments. Technically, Hawks now 19-7 ATS in Milwaukee and 13-6 ATS in last 19 meetings in this series. Bucks 1-4 ATS off a SU loss and 1-4 ATS as chalk. Take the points again. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Suns/Clippers 9:05: As stated in my last write up, Clippers were there in Game 2 and needed a thread more clutch play (free throws from George) down the stretch for the outright; nevertheless, they covered and should be in line to get the win here despite the return of Chris Paul. Beverly is doing as best as he can pestering hot shot Booker. Reggie Jackson has been huge and George is playing well. At home, Mann, Batum and Kennard should lock in as key support players. Even Zubac is holding his own vs Ayton. Clippers are 4-0 ATS in last 4 home games, 6-1 ATS as a home dog and should deliver. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks | 116-113 | Win | 102 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Clippers held their own in Game 1 despite not having Leonard. They hit 45% from floor, 43% from 3 point land and 82% of free throws. Unfortunately for them, Suns shot 55%/41% and 100%. Booker dropped 40 and Ayton was strong with 20. Tonight, I believe Coach Lue will make the needed adjustments to cover like he did vs Utah. Remember, he went small against Utah in Game 6 and exploited Defensive Player of Year - Gobert - who was rendered useless trying to stretch to the perimeter. Tonight, Clippers need Mann to shoot more and Zubac and Batum to step up their game to assist Jackson and George. Sure, Payne is doing a bang up job keeping Chris Paul's seat warm at the point, but Clippers are a better defensive team than what they showed in Game 1. We'll look for better defense and a bit more successful on the offensive perimeter. Clippers have covered 14 of the last 20 in this series. |