Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 53 h 34 m | Show |
I fully expected to see an early overreaction with bettors after Dallas staved off elimination walloped Boston 122-84 in Game 4. As of Saturday, the source I use shows 72% of individual bets and 65% of money wagered going the way of the underdogs Mavericks. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, the Celtics are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS immediately following a loss by 20 points or more. Their average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by a substantial 16.0 points per game. Furthermore, since 207, NBA Finals home favorites coming off an away loss in which they scored 89 points or fewer went 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. Additionally. Since 2013, NBA Finals home favorites of 5.5 or more that are coming off an away loss in which they scored fewer than 100 points have gone 8-0 SU&ATS. The average line during those 8 contests was 8.4 and those home favorites won by an average of 21.8 points scored per game. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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06-06-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Play On: Celtics -6.5 Boston has owned Dallas the past 2 seasons while going 4-0 SU&ATS against them and the average margin of victory came by an impressive 19.7 points per game. The average line in those 4 contests was Boston -5.0 which is in the near vicinity of where today’s line is. It’s also woth noting. The Celtics are 6-0 SU this season when playing on 3 or more days rest and outscored their opponents by an average of 14.0 points per game. Any NBA Finals Game 1 home team has gone 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS since 2004. If those home teams were a favorite of 4.0 or more and won their Conference Finals series in 4 or 5 games they improve 7-0 SU&ATS since 2004 and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. The average line in those 7 contests was 6.4 which is almost identical to the current number at the time of this writing. Give me the Celtics minus points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-26-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Timberwolves @ Mavericks 8:00 PM ET Play On: Timberwolves +2.5 This series can just as easily be 2-0 in favor of Minnesota instead of the other way around. Those 2 games were decided by a combined 4 points. Additionally, this is a Timberwolves team that’s a very good 31-16 on the road this season. Furthermore, Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in in their last 6 as an away underdog and outscored their opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game. Any NBA Playoffs away underdog of 2.0 to 4.5 that down 2-0 in a series and they’re facing a #5 seed or higher has gone 9-0 ATS since 2006. Those underdogs within the previously mentioned point-spread parameter also went 8-1 SU in those contests and outscored the favorites by an average of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Timberwolves plus points. |
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05-22-24 | Mavs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Timberwolves 8:30 PM ET Pick: Mavericks +4.5 Dallas has gone 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their last 5 as an underdog of 4.0 or greater. The Mavericks overcame a halftime deficit in their series clinching Game 6 home win over Oklahoma City. The Mavericks are 5-0 SU in their last 5 away games this season following a win in their previous game during which they trailed at the half. Furthermore, they won those 5 contests by an enormous average of 21.0 points per game. Minnesota is coming off a thrilling Game 7 road win over the defending world champion Denver Nuggets on Sunday night. They trailed that contest by 15 points at the half. That final result marked the biggest comeback from a Game 7 halftime deficit in the history of the NBA Playoffs. However, Minnesota is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win in which they erased a double-digit halftime deficit and they lost by an average of 11.5 points per game. Since the 2010 NBA Playoffs, home favorites of 5.0 or less like Minnesota that are coming off a Game 7 win and open the following series at home, resulting in them going 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS. If they were coming off a Game 7 away win then they’re 0-3 SU&ATS. Additionally, Game 1 home favorites of 5.5 or less that are coming off a Game 7 win are 1-7 SU&ATS since 2009. Tightening that betting angle up even more, if those home favorites of 5.5 or less in that previously described exact betting situation are facing an opponent like Dallas that clinched their previous series in either 6 or 7 games, they fell to 0-4 SU&ATS since 2010 and lost by an average of 8.2 points per contest. Give me the Mavericks plus points. |
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05-17-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
Knicks @ Pacers 8:30 PM ET Game#529-530 Play On: Pacers -5.5 The Pacers are coming off an embarrassing 121-91 loss in Game 5 at New York. Indiana is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season after losing by 20 or more in their previous contest, and their average margin of victory came by 19.3 points per game. The Pacers are also 4-0 SU&ATS this season after scoring 101 or less in their previous contest and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Since the start of last season, Indiana is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Pacers minus points as a Top Play. |
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05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
Knicks @ Pacers 7:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Pacers -6.5 The Pacers are coming off a 130-121 loss in Game 2 at New York on Wednesday night. Indiana has gone 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 this season following a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Indiana is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home immediately following an away loss in their previous game. The average line for Indiana in those 4 games was -7.4 and they won by a substantial margin of 24.2 points per game. Conversely, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 130 points or more and they lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. We must also keep in mind; the Knicks will be a shorthanded team in this one with 3 key players out for the year and O.G Anunoby listed as questionable after suffering a hamstring in Wednesday’s 1st half. They also loss center Mitchell Robinson for the season after he suffered ankle injury in Game 1 of this series. Not to mention Bojan Bogdanovich who was injured during the Knicks opening round win over Philadelphia and is ruled out for the season. Not to mention Jalen Brunson missing the entire 2nd quarter in Wednesday’s win while receiving treatment for n injured food and NBA all-star Julius Randle was lost for the year during their last month of regular season action. Any NBA Playoffs Game 3 home favorite -4.0 to -9.5 that’s coming off away SU&ATS underdog losses in the first 2 games of the series, and they allowed 112 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those Game 3 home favorites going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2003. Give me Indiana minus points. |
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05-01-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-93 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Mavericks -2.5 The Mavericks are coming off a 116-11 Game 4 home favorite upset loss to the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or less following an away win and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They've also gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS this season following a SU underdog win in their previous game. Dallas has gone an extremely profitable 20-6 ATS this season as a road favorite, and it improves to 3-0 SU&ATS following a home loss with an average victory margin of 10.0 points per game. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite following a SU favorite loss in their previous game. This is a very rare NBA postseason betting situation that favors the road favorite in a very small sample size. Nonetheless, any NBA Playoffs away favorite in a Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 that's coming off a home loss has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those 3 road favorites won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Mavericks minus points. |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Pelicans +1.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans. |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET Game# 673-674 Play On: Purdue -9.0 The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: NC State +7.5 Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Clemson +3.5 I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games. Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting. Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Illinois +1.5 Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good. I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois. |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET Game# 839-840 Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0 If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points. |
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03-23-24 | Duquesne v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 63-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET Game# 797-798 Play On: Illinois -9.5 Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater. The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points. |
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03-23-24 | Virginia Tech v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Ohio State -3.5 Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: New Mexico +2.5 As we’ve witnessed throughout this year’s conference tournament action, teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has succeeded win either winning or covering as an underdog more times than not. Such has been the case for New Mexico. The Lobos have played with a high degree of urgency and desperation during their 3 wins in the MWC Tournament. They’ve turned in superb performances on each occasion and surprisingly have been extremely good defensively, which hasn’t been their forte this season. The Lobos allowed 61.0 points per game while holding Air Force, Boise State, and Colorado State to just 34.0% shooting. Despite of that, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in with Missouri Valley Conference regular season champ Indiana State and Virginia lurking behind. So, I fully expect their desperation and urgency to be at a high level in the championship game and not leave it up to the NCAA Tournament committee whether or not they’ll be dancing next week. Furthermore, the Lobos are 6-0 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. San Diego State needed overtime in the quarterfinal round to knock off UNLV and then won decisively over #1 seed Utah State by 16. However, the Aztecs are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately following 2 consecutive wins and were outscored by 7.7 points per game. San Diego State is projected to be a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they have no uncertainty in that regard. Give me New Mexico plus points. |
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03-15-24 | Ohio State v. Illinois -5 | Top | 74-77 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Illinois 6:30 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Illinois -5.0 Yes, Ohio State has responded well since the firing of their head coach Chris Holtman. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. However, just 1 of those 5 teams had a winning record in league play and that was Nebraska at 12-8. The other 4 teams had a combined record of 30-50 in Nig 10 regular season action. I truly believe that Illinois is a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. They finished 14-6 in the Big 10 and was second only to #3 ranked Purdue (28-3). Illinois easily won their only regular season games against Ohio State this season 87-75 and easily covered as a 3.0-point road favorite. Give me Illinois for a top-rated wager. |
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03-05-24 | Spurs v. Rockets -7.5 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Rockets -7.5 Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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02-27-24 | Heat -7 v. Blazers | Top | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Heat -7.0 Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game. Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points. |
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02-27-24 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 91-89 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 621-622 Play On: Mississippi State -3.5 I’m of the opinion they’re giving us the winner in this matchup with unranked Mississippi State being a favorite over 6th ranked Kentucky. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked road underdog in this spot. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge stemming from a 90-77 loss at Kentucky earlier this season. That was a contest in which Kentucky was awarded 17 more free throw attempts than Mississippi State and the Wildcats outscored the Bulldogs by 17 points from the charity stripe. That type of free throw shooting disparity is unlikely to occur again. Kentucky has gone just 2-4 SU in their last 6 conference away games. Conversely, Mississippi State enter this contest on a 5-game win streak and that includes going 4-0 ATS if they were favorite by 9.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give me Mississippi State minus points. |
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02-25-24 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Nebraska 6:30 PM ET Game# 857-858 Play On: Nebraska -6.5 I know Minnesota has been playing very well in recent weeks. However, they’re still just 2-5 SU on the road. I also can’t ignore the fact that Nebraska is a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS during conference home game this season. The Cornhuskers will also be out to revenge a 76-65 loss at Minnesota earlier this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. Give me Nebraska minus points. |
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02-24-24 | George Mason v. Loyola-Chicago -3 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
George Mason @ Loyola-Chicago 4:30 PM ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Loyola-Chicago -3.0 George Mason is coming off their first ever win in program history over a Top 25 opponents when they knocked off #16 Daton 74-70 the last time out. This has all the potential for a letdown spot for George Mason given the emotional high carried away from and during that win. It’s only human nature that George Mason won’t come close to the intensity level and mental sharpness it had during that upset win. Additionally, George Mason is 1-4 in their last 5 conference away games. Although Dayton and Richmond have made plenty of headlines this season in the Atlantic 10 Conference, Loyola-Chicago is a sneaky good team. Loyola enters Saturday’s contest having won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their previous 15 contests. Furthermore, tjhey already won at George Mason 85-79 earlier this season. Give me Loyola-Chicago minus points for a Top Play wager. |
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02-21-24 | Florida v. Alabama -9 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Florida @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Alabama -9.0 Florida has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games which included wins over #14 Auburn and #17 Kentucky. Yet, they find themselves as a heavy underdog in this contest and for good reason in my opinion. Alabama is 13-1 SU &12-2 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 26.6 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve gone 6-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with a substantial average victory margin of 21.1 points per game. Alabama is #1 in SEC play when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, Florida has allowed 80.2 points per game in SEC action this season. Additionally, Alabama is a much better defensive team than they’re given credit for and especially when considering the torrid offensive pace they play at. Give me Alabama minus points. |
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02-20-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Maryland @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Wisconsin -7.0 Maryland has gone 1-4 SY&ATS in their last 5 which includes 0-3 ATS as an underdog. The Terrapins are a very good defensive team but can’t put the ball in the ocean offensively. During conference action, Marland has shot 39.8% from the field and made a poor 28.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. This can be perceived to be a heavy number to cover for a Wisconsin team which is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the Badgers are 11-2 SU at home this season with their lone defeats coming against #5 Tennessee and #3 Purdue. Additionally, Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in conference home games and that includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a favorite. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Nets +1.5 This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss. Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line. |
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01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida @ Kentucky 8:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Kentucky -5.5 Florida is an uninspiring 1-3 SU&ATS in true road games this season and allowed 84.3 points per contest while doing so. The Gators rank next to last in adjusted defensive efficiency during SEC play. That’s not good news when considering that Kentucky is #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #4 in 3-point shooting while converting on an impressive 40.2% of their long-distance attempts. Kentucky doesn’t beat themselves which is proven by them turning the ball over on just 13.1% of their offensive possessions. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season which includes winning their last 4 by 15.3 points per contest and they averaged 95.3 points scored per game. Give me Kentucky minus points. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: 49ers -7.0 The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points. Props · Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards. · 49ers over 30.5 points scored. · Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards. · Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards. |
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01-27-24 | Ohio State v. Northwestern -2.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Northwestern -2.5 Ohio State is 0-4 this season in true away games and all those games came against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. After starting the season 11-2, Ohio State has also dropped 4 of the last 5 overall which includes losses to 3 unranked teams. Northwestern has gone 10-1 at home this season which includes quality wins over #2 Purdue (18-2) and #10 Illinois (14-5). Furthermore, Northwestern is #2 in Big 10 play in 3-point accuracy while making 41.4% of those long-distance shot. Conversely, Ohio State ranks 13th during Big 10 conference play in 3-point defense while allowing opponents to convert an alarmingly high 40.6% of their attempts. Give me Northwestern minus points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*) Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost. Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-16-24 | Kings +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Kings +4.5 The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Chiefs -4.5 Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions. It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Temple v. North Texas -11 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Temple @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: North Texas -11.0 Temple started the season 3-0 and has gone 5-8 since. Those struggles have occurred despite playing against a strength of schedule that ranks #217 according to KenPom. The Owls have also suffered bad losses at the hands of #235 Columbia, #262 Old Domion, #176 East Carolina, and #147 South Florida. On the other hand, North Texas is 7-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. The Mean Green is a very frustrating team to play against since they plat at one of the slowest offensive paces in the country and are an excellent defensive team as well. Give me North Texas minus points. |
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01-11-24 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Celtics +4.5 The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall. The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Michigan -4.5 The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -2.5 Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points. |
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01-05-24 | Connecticut v. Butler +6 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Connecticut @ Butler 6:30 PM ET Game# 877-878 Play On: Butler +6.0 This will be just the 3rd true road game for UConn this season and they lost to Kansas by 4 and Seton Hall by 15 in the first 2. Butler is 10-4 but it’s worth noting that they’re 8-0 at home and considering their a sizable underdog in this spot that element can’t be ignored. Butler has also played the tougher schedule to this point compared to UConn which may not result in winning this game outright but certainly bodes well for them to be competitive throughout and stay inside the number. Give me Butler plus points. |
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01-03-24 | Indiana v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Indiana @ Nebraska 9:00 PM ET Game# 705-706 Play On: Nebraska -5.0 Nebraska is 11-2 and every good as their record indicates. The Cornhuskers have quality depth and are a very experienced team. Indiana is one of the youngest teams in the Big 10 Conference. It seems odd to see Nebraska as a favorite over Indiana in basketball. With that in mind, it most likely will produce a fair share of underdog bets just based on the perception of reach programs history on the hardwood. Give me Nebraska minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Texas -3.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Texas -3.5 This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Bengals +6.5 The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games. Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak. Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5 Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: 49ers -6.0 The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Cowboys -3.5 Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Wyoming +5.0 Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina. Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV -7 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: UNLV -7.0 UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games. Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover. NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Cowboys +4.0 Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion. Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Texas A&M +1.5 Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban. Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Buccaneers +5.0 Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents. Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways. Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards. Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Kansas -9.5 BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest. Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday. Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Cowboys -8.0 Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Florida +6.5 Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112. College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -3 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Chargers -3.0 I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater. Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0 Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico. Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points. |
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08-05-23 | Mets v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 105 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Mets (Megill) @ Orioles (Gibson) 7:05 PM ET Game# 975-976 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (+105) The Mets have lost their last 4 while being outscored by a cumulative 30-11. New York has also dropped 7 of their last 8 road games. Tylor Megill has a a horrible 7.99 ERA/2.23 WHIP during 8 road starts this season. The Mets bullpen has an undesirable 6.57 ERA/1.62 WHP throughout their previous 7 games. New York is coming off a 10-3 loss last night at Camden Yards. They’ve gone 1-9 on the road this season after allowing 9 runs or more in their previous outing and were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game. Kyle Gibson exhibited good form over his last 3 starts with a 3.00 ERA/1.06 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been stellar over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.13 ERA/1.03 WHIP. During that identical stretch, Baltimore averaged 6.6 runs scored per game while compiling a .307 team batting average and .369 on-base percentage. Give me the Baltimore Orioles on the run-line. |
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07-28-23 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
Angels (Giolito) @ Blue Jays (Gausman) 7:07 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Toronto -1.5 (+108) Lucas Giolito makes his Angels debut today after being obtained earlier in the week in a trade with the White Sox. Giolito’s road performance line in 2023 leaves much to be desired as it reads a 5.25 ERA/1.58 WHIP during 11 starts. Furthermore, Giolito has an abysmal 4-17 team start record since the start of last season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater like he’ll be today. Granted the Angels are a red-hot 8-1 in their last 9. However, they played a doubleheader at Detroit yesterday and will be facing a Toronto team that was off on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that the Angels are 8-17 this season when facing teams like Toronto who have a win percentage of between .540 and .620. Kevin Gausman has been terrific in 9 home starts this season while recording a 2.58 ERA/0.99 WHIP and averaged a healthy 6.6 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Toronto is 3-0 when facing Lucas Giolito as an opposing starting pitcher. Additionally, Giolito’s terrible 8.62 ERA/1.79 WHIP during those 3 outings was a major contributor to Toronto winning all 3 of those games. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays as a run-line favorite. |
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06-23-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Pirates (Ortiz) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+105) (10*) Let’s start with this. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight and scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their previous 12 games. Throughout their previous 7 the Pirates are averaging a pathetic 1.9 runs per game while recording a .144 team batting average. Pittsburgh will be facing a marlins team which has allowed 3.0 runs per game throughout their last 7 outings. Luis Ortiz is 0-4 in his road team starts this season with a lousy 5.50 ERA and abysmal 1.94 WHIP. Even then, Ortiz is fortunate to have an ERA that low with a WHIP that high. Simply put, he’s wiggled out of lot of james during those starts while flirting with potential disaster. Miami is 14-1 this season as a home favorite of -150 or greater this and outscored their opponents by a decisive average of 3.5 runs per game. During their previous 7 games the Marlins have an outstanding .305 batting average and .352 on-base-percentage as a team. Miami’s Jesus Luzardo is 6-2 in his home team starts this season while posting a stellar 3.04 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Marlins bullpen staff has a combined 2.49 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Give me the Miami Marlins as a run-line favorite for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-13-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Rangers (Gray) @ A’s (Kaprielian) 4:07 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (-103) (10*) Oakland is 1-15 during day games this season and were outscored by an enormous 4.6 runs per game. The A’s are also an abysmal 4-16 at home and being outscored by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Conversely, Texas is 9-4 during the day this season with a huge +3.6 run per game differential and averaging a substantial 8.1 runs scored per game. The Rangers lost at Oakland last night. But they can take comfort in knowing the A’s are a miserable 1-7 in 2023 immediately following a win and that includes 0-3 at home. Texas’ Jon Gray has been sharp in 4 road starts with a shiny 3.05 ERA/1.02 WHIP. Give me the Texas Rangers on the run-line. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*) Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*) Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game. NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*) The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*) I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less. Give me Miami plus the points. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*) San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game. Give me San Diego State. |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule. Give me FAU minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*) These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota. Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*) I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category. Give me Northwestern plus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET Game# 771-772 Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*) This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games. Give me Kent State plus the points. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*) Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate. San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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03-04-23 | UNLV v. Nevada -8.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*) UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch. Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season. Give me Nevada minus the points. |
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03-03-23 | Knicks -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: New York -2.5 (5*) Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers. New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game. Give me New York minus the points. |
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02-25-23 | Virginia v. North Carolina -3 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET Game# 713-714 Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*) This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait. Give me North Carolina minus the points. |
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01-31-23 | Indiana v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*) Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22. Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game. Give me Maryland minus the points. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*) The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit. Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game. NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-14-23 | Iowa State +8.5 v. Kansas | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*) There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points. Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games. Give me Iowa State plus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*) Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival. Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*) The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games. Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit. NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*) Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins. The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings. Give me Carolina minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State -8 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*) This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses. Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC. Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*) Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*) Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-25-22 | Duke -4.5 v. Xavier | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*) Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game. Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Game# 107-108 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*) Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements. Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game. |