Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-18 | Wyoming v. Hawaii -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 86 h 8 m | Show | |
Hawaii is better than expected this season especially quarterback Cole McDonald, who has already thrown for more than 2,000 yards and has a mind-boggling 24-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wyoming is bad this season. The Cowboys aren't getting the takeways like they did last season when they led the nation with 38 and they really miss Josh Allen. The Cowboys have failed to break 20-points in their last four games. They have just six takeaways and six sacks in their five games. Hawaii has a big home field advantage. The Rainbow Warriors also have a much superior passing attack and far more team speed. Hawaii won't take Wyoming lightly either after nearly losing to 1-4 San Jose State last week.
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10-06-18 | Indiana +27 v. Ohio State | 26-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Indiana is 4-1 and has the quarterback, running back and coaching to take advantage of a huge flat spot here for Ohio State. The Buckeyes pulled out a dramatic road victory against Penn State last week. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games , too, taking on Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska following this game. So a letdown definitely is in store for the Buckeyes as they return home having staved off a major challenge by the upstart Nittany Lions. Indiana has covered in six of its last seven meetings with Ohio State. Peyton Ramsey leads the Big Ten in completion percentage and Stevie Scott is the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten. Scott averages 6.8 yards per carry.
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10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Cincinnati has designs on making the Top-25. The Bearcats are yielding the second-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 and their offense is coming on behind quarterback Desmond Rider and running back Michael Warren. I don't see visting Tulane slowing down the Bearcats. Tulane gives up nearly 30 points a game and ranks 108th in yards allowed. Cincinnati is averaging more than 600 yards of total offense during its past three games. The Green Wave have covered only of their last seven road games and are in a letdown spot after ending an 11-game losing streak to Memphis by upsetting the Tigers last week as 14 1/2-point home 'dogs.
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09-29-18 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -5 | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 51 m | Show | |
Kudos to Old Dominion. The Monarchs stunned Virgina Tech, 49-35, as a 27 1/2-point underdog. The Hokies entered that matchup ranked 13th in the country. It was the biggest football victory in Old Dominion school history. It also causes a monster letdown spot for the Monarchs especially going on the road. Before that stunning win, the Monarchs were 0-3 with losses by 42 points to Liberty, Florida International and Charlotte. The Monarchs failed to cover any of those games. Old Dominion allows the sixth-most rushing yards in the nation and 35.8 points per game. East Carolina has played a much more difficult schedule than Old Dominion. The Pirates pulled their own major upset during their last home games, beating North Carolina, 41-19, two weeks ago. The Pirates then hung tough as a 20-point 'dog last week in losing 20-13 to South Florida on the road. The Pirates defense is much improved, ranking 48th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points. East Carolina ranks 51st in rushing offense.
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09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective.
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09-22-18 | Arizona State +18.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
It's strange but true. Arizona State has won 11 of the past 12 games in this series, including winning last year. The Sun Devils have covered in their last eight visits to Washington. The Huskies have the strongest defense in the Pac-12. Arizona State, though, is used to strong defenses having gone against Michigan State and San Diego in its past two games. The Sun Devils have an explosive passing attack spearheaded by senior Manny Wilkins, who has thrown for back-to-back 300 yard games. He has dangerous receiving weapons, including N'Keal Harry, who I regard as the best wide receiver in the Pac-12. Washington hasn't seen receivers this good all season. Washington has been just average on offense. I do like Myles Gaskin. However, the Huskies' offensive line isn't an elite unit and quarterback Jake Browning is overrated. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. I think there is very good value in taking a number I consider inflated.
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
Under Tony Sanchez, UNLV has received better coaching and recruiting. The Rebels have now reached borderline bowl status. They were right with USC on the road in their opener until the final couple of minutes and are off two confidence-building blowout victories. The Rebels have the quarterback and ground game to hang with Arkansas State on the road. The Red Wolves have a strong tradition and also are historically well-coached. But their defensive front is nothing great and UNLV can attack it with dual-threat quarterback Armani Rogers and Lexington Thomas, one of the best running backs in the country. Only two teams average more than the Rebels' 346.7 yards on the ground. Arkansas State ranks 96th in stopping the run. The weather forecast is in UNLV's favor, too. There is a chance of rain with wind in the 10-15 mph range. The Rebels are a running team while Arkansas State is the superior passing team. The Rebels used to be patsies on the road. Not anymore under Sanchez covering eight of their last nine away contests. The Red Wolves have failed to cover in their last four home games.
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain.
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh -3 v. North Carolina | 35-38 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
This is turning into a lost season for North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost to California in their opener, were buried in Week 2 by East Carolina, 41-19, as 16 1/2-point road favorites and then didn't play last week against Central Florida because of Hurricane Florence. The aftermath of this hurricane as made it very difficult for North Carolina to focus and prepare for this matchup. That won't be the case with Pittsburgh. The Panthers are in huge revenge mode. Their 34-31 loss to the Tar Heels cost them a bowl berth last year. The Panthers have their confidence up after an impressive 24-19 home win against Georgia Tech last Saturday. Pitt has a good runner in Quadree Ollison and its quarterback, Kenny Pickett, played much better than he did earlier in the season. The Panthers shouldn't encounter problems going against a defense that yielded 510 yards of total offense to East Carolina.
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here.
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show | |
Those who doubted Herm Edwards in his return to coaching - and college at that - are quiet these days after the Sun Devils reached the top-25 for the first time in four years with a tremendous 16-13 home upset of Michigan State this past Saturday. The Sun Devils played their guts out coming from 10 points behind in the fourth quarter and were rewarded by beating the Spartans at the gun on a field goal. Up next for Arizona State following this game is a huge Pac-12 matchup against Washington. So this is just a terrible spot for the Sun Devils especially going on the road. San Diego State has no such look-ahead. The Aztecs host Eastern Michigan in a non-conference game next Saturday. Early money has come on Arizona State despite its situation because San Diego State won't have senior starting quarterback Christian Chapman. He's more game manager, though, as the Aztecs rely on running back Juwan Washington. He's the third-leading rusher in the nation with 314 yards in two games. This is Edwards' first road game with the Sun Devils. ASU is 6-13 ATS in its past 19 away contests.
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs.
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09-08-18 | Ball State +34.5 v. Notre Dame | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame easily could overlook Ball State having just won a huge marquee game against Michigan last week. Ball State finished last season with nine straight losses. The Cardinals are underrated, though. Ball State set a school record in piling up 652 yards in a 42-6 victory against Central Connecticut State last Thursday. The Cardinals got huge games from quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert, both of whom missed the last nine games with injuries last year. They make Ball State a better-than-perceived team. The Cardinals should be more excited about this matchup than Notre Dame. This is the first meeting between the two Indiana-based schools. Ball State also has covered nine of its last 11 games in September.
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
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09-01-18 | Texas State v. Rutgers -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Rutgers is going to relish a chance to bury an opponent and built up its confidence. The Scarlet Knights have had the defense. Now they have the makings of a decent offense to accomplish this against an overmatched opponent. Boston College transfer Jon Hilliman leads a good crop of Rutgers running backs that includes talented Raheem Blackshear and Jerome Washington is one of the better tight ends in the country. Freshman quarterback Art Sitowski was an "A" level recruit. How bad is Texas State? The Bobcats have won three games the past two years. Texas State didn't intercept a pass last season and only once in two seasons did its offense produce at least 14 points in non-conference FBS play.
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -108 | 132 h 57 m | Show | |
I want Alabama going for me here. The Tide beat Clemson in impressive style while Georgia had to launch a monster comeback to defeat Oklahoma in double overtime. The Tide had the less taxing bowl playoff game and a shorter distance to travel back home from New Orleans. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are coming off a very dificult game in which they came back from a 31-17 halftime deficit and had to return all the way back from the West Coast having defeated the Sooners in southern California. Alabama and Georgia shared common opponents Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Combining those games, the Tide came out with a plus 279 yardage mark against those four common foes to Georgia's plus 115. The Tide also recorded the better offensive and defensive yards per play statistics. Note, too, that Georgia coach Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator before becoming the Bulldogs' head coach last season. Former Saban assistant coaches have squared off against their mentor 11 times - and are 0-11. Each of Alabama's victories against these coaches was by 14 or more points.
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I see these teams as near even with Notre Dame slightly better. So I'll gladly accept points here. I like Notre Dame's running back depth better and offensive line where they have two projected first-round draft picks. Guard Quenton Nelson is expected to be the first offensive linemen selected in the draft. I also prefer Brandon Wimbush to Danny Etling at quarterback. The statistics of these two teams are very close. Notre Dame, though, has a clear edge in averaging 6.4 yards per run while allowing 4.0 yards compared to LSU averaging 4.9 and 3.9 defensively. The key is who runs the ball better and that's another checkmark for Notre Dame, which rates seventh-best in the nation. Strength of schedule also favors the Irish. This was not a great year in the SEC. LSU had its worst losses against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers also were shocked by Troy. The Irish are the healthier team, too, especially at linebacker. The line is shaded towards LSU because Notre Dame lost late games against Stanford and Miami both on the road. The Irish are refreshed and have regrouped now. They are the team worth backing.
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12-29-17 | NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
I like South Florida's defense and its quarterback, senior Quinton Flowers. These strengths provide South Florida a strong enough edge to cover this short number. Flowers is a dangerous dual threat with his passing and running ability. The Red Raiders faced three elite quarterbacks this season - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Will Grier - and lost to all three of them. Texas Tech doesn't have the offense to trade points with South Florida especially going against a rugged Bulls defense that ranked 37th in scoring defense, 28th in total defense and 22nd in run defense. Texas Tech Nic Shimonek was ineffective enough to get pulled late in the season. The Red Raiders earned their bowl berth by getting to six wins with a 27-23 victory against Texas to finish the regular season. That victory likely saved Kliff Kingsbury's job. I doubt the Red Raiders can reach the same level of intensity now that Kingsbury is safe and the team achieved their goal of making a bowl game. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 55 h 46 m | Show | |
I like both team's offenses. But Louisiana Tech has the better defense and has far more bowl experience. SMU also is going through a coaching change making this an awkward spot. Chad Morris led the Mustangs to their first bowl game since 2012. But Morris resigned after three season at SMU to become coach at Arkansas. This was less than two weeks ago. Morris took most of his offensive staff with him leaving new head coach Sonny Dykes to go over bowl preparations. I'm not a fan of Dykes. I prefer Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz much more than Dykes. Louisiana Tech has been to a bowl game each of the last three seasons - winning each time. This is the inaugural Frisco Bowl, which is being played in Frisco, Texas. It's less than 30 miles from Frisco to Dallas. So SMU could have bigger crowd support. On the other hand, it has to be boring for the Mustangs not getting to go anywnhere for their first bowl appearance in five years. Louisiana Tech has experience in this region, too. The Bulldogs won the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth last year and also was victorious in the Heat of Dallas Bowl in 2014. SMU allowed 35.5 points a game. The Mustangs ranked 122nd in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. SMU enters this matchup going 1-3 in its last four games with the lone winning during this span coming at home, 41-38, against Tulane in a game it failed to cover. The Mustangs have covered only one of their last seven games. Louisiana Tech ranked 66th in total defense and scoring defense giving up 26.7 points. The Bulldogs are good at forcing turnovers, too, tying for 11th in interceptions with 16.
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12-02-17 | Georgia +3 v. Auburn | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Georgia and I can understand why. The Bulldogs are in a huge revenge spot and Auburn is coming off a huge home win against Alabama. The Bulldogs have the best running attack in the SEC with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and a defense that gives up the fourth fewest yards per game in the country. I don't see Auburn stopping the Bulldogs on the ground like it did in the first meeting. |