Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 53 m | Show |
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -114 | 80 h 49 m | Show | |
I never thought I would be writing these words this season, but the Jets are going for their third win in a row. Don't expect them to get it. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins and Jaguars in overtime last week. Both wins were achieved at home. They have their bigget game of the season going next week when they host the Patriots. This marks the Jets' lone road game during a four-week span. The Browns' roster is better than one AFC team - the Jets. Cleveland's defense will be bolstered by the return of lineman Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall draft pick. It's an added bonus if nose guard Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Colllins also are able to play. The winless Browns have a much stronger sense of urgency than the Jets for this one and they are home. It's not too much to ask Cleveland to simply win this game against a team where they hold a talent edge on in the offensive line and defensively. The Jets are one of the few teams that also doesn't hold an edge against the Browns skill position-wise.
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
The Steelers play much better at home particularly Ben Roethlisberger, whose passer rating is 24 points higher at Heniz Field since 2014. During the past four years, Roethlisberger has a 62-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to only 24-to-23 on the road. Le'Veon Bell is coming off his best game after a slow start rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. Bell should be in line for another big game versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks last in run defense allowing 165.5 yards on the ground per game. Bell's running should set up Roethlisberger's play-action. The Jaguars seem better coached just because they've figured out their best way to win is run the ball and let Blake Bortles be a game manager rather than a gunslinger. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. But it's not strong enough to carry a weak offense. The Steelers are intimidating and play with a swagger defensively at home. Their offense can put up points fast taking the ball out of Leonard Fournette's hands and forcing Bortles to beat them. That won't happen in Pittsburgh. Bortles has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league with a knack for throwing pick-sixes. The Jaguars had to lose a lot of confidence by being outplayed and losing to the lowly Jets last week. This is a kill spot for the Steelers. They've buried much stronger teams that the Jaguars at home.
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10-07-17 | Alabama -25.5 v. Texas A&M | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Alabama has outscored SEC foes, 125-3, this season. The Crimson Tide should win this game by at least four touchdowns. Texas A&M has an inexperienced secondary that ranks near the bottom giving up nearly 300 passing yards a game. Alabama should have no problem rolling up 500 yards with its balanced attack. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Texas A&M failed to score a touchdown against the Crimson Tide. The Aggies are starting a true freshman quarterback, Kellen Mond. Alabama gives up the fewest points in the country and ranks second in run defense. Mond doesn't have a good offensive line nor receivers to rely on.
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are in must-win mode at 0-3. They should have beaten the Eagles last week. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season and their defense remains top-rate. Offense has been a major problem for the Giants. But things should click better now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy. The timing is good here for the Giants because the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem on defense with their top defenders injured. Likely out for sure are linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. The Buccaneers also could be missing their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker, along with cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves. Promising pass rusher Noah Spence also is hurt with a separated shoulder. Eli Manning has never lost to Tampa Bay going 5-0. The Buccaneers have failed to cover eight of the last nine times when laying more than two points. The Giants won 11 games last season on their way to making the playoffs. The Buccaneers last made the postseason in 2007. The timing is ripe here for the Giants to get back on track against an inconsistent Bucs offense and extremely banged-up defense.
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
At 0-3 this is the Chargers' season. They catch the Eagles off a big division win against the Giants in which the Eagles were outgained by nearly two yards per play. The Chargers easily could be 2-1 instead of 0-3 if not for kicking mistakes by rookie Younghoe Koo. Philip Rivers is a high level QB. He's coming off one of the worst games of his career with a 37.2 passer rating and three interceptions against the Chiefs. I believe Rivers will bounce back strong here against an Eagles defense that is vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries and probably will be without its best defensive lineman, injured Fletcher Cox. The Chargers have a huge receiving edge with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin operating against Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills. The Eagles lost their most versatile threat and a top punt returner when Darren Sproles was injured against the Giants and lost for the season. Philly struggles to run the ball. Sproles was their best player in space. Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Sparked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two of the top pass rushers in the league, the Chargers have recorded 11 sacks.
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 11 times, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Palmer could have more trouble now that the left side of his offensive line has been ruled out as neither left tackle Mike Iupati nor left guard Alex Boone will play. Boone is out with a pectoral injury while Iupati was put on IR. Palmer is past his prime and doesn't have his security blanket, David Johnson. The absence of Johnson greatly weakens not only the Cardinals' ground attack, but also its passing. Johnson is the best pass catching starting running back in football. Arizona's receiving corps is banged-up, too, as neither John Brown nor JJ. Nelson are 100 percent. The 49ers got their offense going against the Rams scoring 39 points while finally showing a grasp of Kyle Shanahan's new offense. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed against the Rams, who are the most improved offensive team in the league. The 49ers have had extra rest and practice time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on a short week having played this past Monday night. The Cardinals haven't been very good at home either failing to cover 12 of their last 18 home games.
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
Did you know the Rams are leading the NFL in scoring? It's true. After averaging a league-low 14 points last season, the Rams are putting up 35.7 points per game. The key is monster improvement from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. He was hindered by Jeff Fisher's neanderthal coaching last year. New coach, QB guru Sean McVay, has helped raise Goff's passer rating from 63.6 to 118.2. That's the largest increase ever for a QB going into his second season. Todd Gurley is a major factor now that defenses no longer can stack the line against him. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and are coming off a Monday night road win against the Cardinals. This is a short week for the Cowboys and a flat spot for them. Dallas hosts the Packers next week in a marquee matchup.
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10-01-17 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -12 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
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09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa +7.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 53 m | Show | |
The line is inflated because Navy is 2-0 in the American Athletic Conference already and Tulsa went 1-3 in non-league and is off a bad home loss to New Mexico. The Golden Hurricane, though, are much better than how they looked against the Lobos. They've also played the tougher schedule going against a pair of high-powered offenses in Oklahoma State and Toledo. Navy is a one-dimensional option team. Tulsa has a balanced attack with quarterback Chad President and D'Angelo Brewer, who will be the best running back on the field. If the Midshipmen key on Brewer, President can hurt them through the air. Navy ranks 81st in pass defense. Tulsa has yet to play its best game. I say it comes here at home in their AAC opener.
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals. The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary. So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points. Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinators from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense. The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Rodgers as they've never beaten them. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 57 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are struggling to put up touchdowns through two games. The Titans very well could be the best team in the AFC South Division. They have a lot of young talent. But the Titans lack the pedigree and experience to beat an elite team. I see the Seahawks, with their defense dominant as ever, hanging around to get the victory. The Seahawks know how to win. Tennessee isn't at that stage yet. The Seahawks should have had two additional touchdowns against the 49ers last week, but C.J. Prossie and Tanner McEvoy each couldn't hold on to touchdown passes that were on the money. Russell Wilson is better than ever and the Seahawks may have found their most effective running back with Chris Carson rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers. Thomas Rawls should also be more effective in his second game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The Titans could be without their lead running back, DeMarco Murray, and good-looking rookie wide receiver, Corey Davis. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries.
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +1 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 130 h 54 m | Show | |
The Colts are home, have the better skill position players and I like their quarterback better. The Browns have lost their last 14 road games. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer has been sacked 10 times and picked off four times in six quarters. He'll be without his top receiver, injured Corey Coleman. The Colts acquired second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Patriots on Sept. 2. Brissett had only seven practices before starting this past Sunday against the Cardinals. He nearly led the Colts to an upset win against the Cardinals with Indy losing in overtime. Brissett has excellent mobility and a big arm. He helped lead the Patriots to an easy win against the Texans, a much stronger defensive team than the Browns, last season. The Colts have more skill position weapons for Brissett than the Browns do for Kizer, including elite wideout T.Y. Hilton. The Browns will be without Myles Garrett and possibly star linebacker Jamie Collins, who is in the league's concussiohn protocol.
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09-24-17 | Giants +6.5 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a mistake to underestimate the Giants even though they are 0-2 and coming off a dreadful Monday night home loss to the Eagles. Clearly, the Giants have problems offensively. Eli Manning is past his prime and is behind a terrible offensive line without a good running back. But the Giants have an upper tier defense. The Giants didn't win 11 games by fluke last season. They are in desperation mode at 0-2 and are a nice value play here as previous to Monday night they were in the plus 3 1/2 range in early-look ahead lines. Odell Beckham Jr. is the healthiest he's been all season. The Giants' pass-first offense is going against a weak Eagles secondary made weaker by an injury to their best cornerback, Ronald Darby. Beckham should have a big game against Eagles cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas. This is a perfect example of an inflated line due to an overreaction of the Monday night game.
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 127 h 44 m | Show |
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
Before Mike Riley perhaps slinks back off to Oregon State, his Cornhusker should stop-the-pain given their home field advantage and lowly opponent, Rutgers. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back non-league losses to Oregon and a double-digit home upset loss to Northern Illinois. The last time the Cornhuskers lost two in a row non-conference games was 1957. Riley and Nebraska are under extreme pressure to perform better. Fortunately the Cornhuskers draw Big Ten patsy Rutgers. The last time the Scarlet Knights won a Big Ten game was 2015. Rutgers has lost 14 consecutive Big Ten contests. The Cornhuskers have underachieved all season. But they certainly have the talent to bury Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are in a different frame of mind after snapping a nation-long 11-game loss streak with a victory against Morgan State.
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 14 m | Show |
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
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09-17-17 | 49ers v. Seahawks -13.5 | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 8 m | Show | |
The Seahawks have dominated the 49ers at home winning the past six times. They've beaten San Francisco by 19 and 16 points, respectively, the past two years. Seattle has the top defense in the NFL. All of the Seahawks' defensive studs are back and run-stuffer Sheldon Richardson has been added. The 49ers' work-in-progress offense isn't ready for this caliber of defense, especially in the toughest outdoor road venue. San Francisco could only manage three points and 217 yards of offense at home against Carolina this past Sunday. Russell Wilson has the best set of receivers he's ever had. Wilson is primed for a huge year. The 49ers defense took a huge loss when promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster suffered a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. The Seahawks are in a foul mood after losing to the Packers opening week. They'll take their frustrations out on the hapless 49ers here.
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09-16-17 | Tulane +36 v. Oklahoma | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 8 m | Show | |
Oklahoma certainly can be forgiven if it takes Tulane lightly. The Sooner, after all, are coming off a monster road win against Ohio State. Baker Mayfield is in serious Heisman Trophy contention after that game. But Tulane can cause some problems for the Sooners, enough to hang in and get this spread cover. The Green Wave should be improved after their young players took their lumps with a 4-8 record last year. The Green Wave have a decent pass rush and secondary. They also can chew up clock with their triple option running attack. This isn't an offense the Sooners are used to facing being in the wide-open, pass-crazy Big 12.
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward.
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 1090 h 53 m | Show |
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. |
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09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals -2.5 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 460 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross. The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back. The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players. Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year. Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars. |
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance.
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09-09-17 | UNLV +7 v. Idaho | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
UNLV got caught looking ahead to this revenge matchup and was shocked 43-40 by Howard, an FCS school, last week. The Rebels were a 45 1/2-point favorite in that game making them the largest favorite ever to lose. The Rebels shouldn't have been that big of a favorite in hindsight. But they also shouldn't be this much of an underdog. UNLV has a very good offense. Rebel coach Tony Sanchez has done a good job recruiting. The Rebels were tabbed by many to earn a bowl spot. Now they need to win this game. They have been sick of hearing all week about their shocking loss to Howard. Idaho wasn't as good as its 9-4 record of a year ago. The Vandals have a rebuilt offensive line and their special teams aren't as dangerous. Idaho usually starts the season slow, too, covering only two of its last 11 September games.
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy.
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 133 h 6 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes.
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters.
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08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
The class difference is above the spread in this matchup. The Rams are a touchdown better than Oregon State especially playing at home. The Rams averaged 35.3 points a game last season. The Beavers don't have the defense to slow down Colorado State and their offense isn't balanced because of a weak passing attack. Jake Luton, a JC transfer, is untested and faced with a thin and inexperienced wide receiving group. Colorado State QB Nick Stevens can be highly effective against a vulnerable Oregon State secondary. The Rams played their best ball during the second half of last season averaging more than 46 points a game during their last six games. The Beavers have yet to win a road game in two years under Gary Anderson losing by an average of more than three touchdowns. Note, too, the Rams are 14-4-1 ATS during their last 19 non-conference games.
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
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01-15-17 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams. |
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01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
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01-01-17 | Saints +7 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 13 m | Show | |
Matt Ryan is in the MVP discussion and the Falcons are going to score the most points in franchise history. But the Saints also are going to get their points here - if not score more than Atlanta. As outstanding as Ryan has been this season, he's trumped by Drew Brees, who has thrown for more yards and touchdown passes than Ryan. The Saints offense is operating at peak efficiency scoring on 14 of their last 22 possession during their last two games against respectable defenses the Buccaneers and Cardinals. New Orleans has scored 79 points during the last two weeks. New Orleans is improved on defense, too. The Saints have held their last 12 opponents to 120 yards or less rushing. A return to health of underrated Sheldon Rankins and Dannell Ellerbee have upgraded their defense. This is a long-time rivalry. So the Saints aren't going to lack motivation in what could be the final time Sean Payton and Brees are together. New Orleans has covered eight of its last nine road games. Atlanta hasn't been dominant at home with a 4-3 mark and losing spread mark. The Saints have won in five of their last seven visits to Georgia Dome.
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01-01-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Rams | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
The Cardinals still have pride playing for Bruce Arians. They hold big matchup edges on the Rams and I expect them to show up against the Rams, who have yet to cover a spread since Jared Goff became quarterback. The Cardinals are a top heavy blitzing team. Goff has yet to display good pocket presence. I see him skittish in the pocket here.
The Rams just want this season to end. Carson Palmer has been playing better and David Johnson is a monster who can set a bunch of records here. LA has allowed 16 touchdown passes in their last six games. The Rams are down their best wideout, Kenny Britt. |
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01-01-17 | Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 26 m | Show |
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
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01-01-17 | Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 4 m | Show |
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
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12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
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12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
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12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten. |
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12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College +2 | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a good matchup for Boston College. The Eagles have an excellent run defense. Their problem is going against outstanding athletic dual-threat quarterbacks with great athletes at the skill positions. The Eagles' worst defeats have come against Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. Maryland is a much easier foe for Boston College, an opponent that is right in the Eagles' wheelhouse. The Terrapins are a typical mediocre Big Ten team that likes to run behind a big offensive line. Boston College ranks seventh in the nation in run defense. The Eagles are well acquainted with the kind of spread run game that Maryland employs. Maryland is 1-4 in its last four games with its only victory during this span occurring against 2-10 Rutgers. The Terrapins were outscored by 142 points during their last four losses.
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
The Ravens caught the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was just back from his knee injury. Roethlisberger was rusty and Baltimore won, 21-14, in Week 9. Things are much different now. Roethlisberger is healthy and plays much better at Heinz Field where he's thrown 17 touchdown passes with just three interceptions. The Ravens have a strong run defense, but their secondary is vulnerable especially with top cornerback Jimmy Smith not likely to play. If the Ravens drop safeties into coverage then Le'Veon Bell is primed for a big game. If the Ravens key on Bell than Roethlisberger gets turned loose. Antonio Brown should prove highly dangerous here especially if Smith is out as expected. The Ravens lack a consistent ground attack and Joe Flacco is enduring one of his worst seasons. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers have held six of their last seven opponents to under 250 yards through the air. Their defense has gotten healthy and stepped up. The Steelers not only play much better at home, but they have proven strong in December covering 12 of the last 14 times.
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 83 h 24 m | Show | |
The Titans have been a nice story this season. Definite improvement is there. But the oddsmaker has gotten ahead of things by making the Titans this big of a road favorite. Tennessee has a losing spread mark when laying points. The Titans have won three in a row - by a combined 11 points. They are off huge victories against the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos and the Chiefs on the road last week winning on a 53-yard field goal at the gun. The Titans are tied with Houston for the AFC South Division lead. The Titans host the Texans next week. So it's difficult to trust the young Titans, who haven't been in this kind of letdown spot before, to cover more than a field goal on the road in an obvious flat spot. The key here is accessing Jacksonville. The Jaguars average 18.7 points a game, which ranks 27th. However, the Jaguars have the fourth-best pass defense in the league and give up the seventh-fewest yards. Their defense is sneaky good. The Jaguars' talent level is far superior to their 2-12 record. Jacksonville has lost seven times by one touchdown or less. Close losses and bad coaching have killed the Jaguars. Interim coach Doug Marrone can't help but be an improvement on Gus Bradley, who was fired following Sunday's one-point road loss to the Texans. Bradley was the worst coach in the NFL in my view. The Jaguars are 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the past five times hosting the Titans. Yes, the Titans are the best they've been in at least five years, but they are far from dominant with huge weaknesses in the secondary and wide receiver. Jacksonville should be fired up for their new coach in their final home game of the season playing a division foe that whipped them. 36-22, back in Week 8.
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him. |
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12-21-16 | BYU -10 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21.
BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. |
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12-18-16 | Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
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12-18-16 | Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a bad matchup for Kansas City made worse by cold weather conditions. The Titans have the necessary ground attack to take advantage of the Chiefs' mediocre run defense made far more ineffective by star linebacker Derrick Johnson being out. Tennessee owns edges at running back, quarterback and offensive line. Kansas City may be the luckiest team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 10-3 despite being outgained by an average of nearly 90 yards during their last six games. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Kansas City has scored either a defensive touchdown or special teams touchdown in four of its last five games. The Chiefs are a plus 11 in takeaways/giveaways. They need turnovers to win. But Titans rising star quarterback Marcus Mariota hasn't committed a turnover in his last three games while throwing for multiple touchdown in eight of his last nine games. The Titans are expected to get back their best defensive player in lineman Jurrell Casey. Tennessee's weakness is a vulnerable secondary. But Alex Smith's strength isn't as a downfield passer. Smith isn't helped either by freezing weather. This is going to come down to who runs the ball better and I'll take DeMarco Murray and Mariota plus these points against Spencer Ware and Alex Smith.
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12-18-16 | Packers -5.5 v. Bears | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 29 m | Show | |
Frightful weather isn't enough to stop the Packers from covering against the Bears. Chicago is just too beat-up and inexperienced at quarterback with Matt Barkley to stay with the Packers, who are starting to peak. Barkley is a Southern California kid who isn't accustomed to playing in weather that will have a wind chill factor of below zero. He doesn't have the skill level or weapons to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. The Bears do get Alshon Jeffery back from suspension. Barkley and Jeffery have never worked together, though. The Packers' offensive line and defense have gotten healthier coinciding with their three-game winning and covering streak against the Eagles, Texans and Seahawks. Since Week 11, the Packers haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game. The Bears are missing six starters on defense because of injuries and suspensions. They only have 10 takeaways, which ranks 30th. Green Bay has won six in a row at Soldier Field beating Bears teams much better than this current edition.
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12-18-16 | Browns +10 v. Bills | 13-33 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
The Bills are playing too bad and are too dysfunctional to be laying double-digits to any opponent. Buffalo is 2-5 in its last seven games and just playing the string out after missing the playoffs for an NFL-high 17th consecutive season. Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor both are likely out the door following the season. The Browns desperately want to avoid a winless season. They are not outclassed in this matchup. The Bills have surrendered 21 or more points in six of their last seven games. Robert Griffin III is the Browns' best quarterback and he won't be rusty after playing last week. Griffin has some decent weapons, too, with Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Gary Barnridge, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, who has looked his best when Griffin has been the quarterback due to Griffin's dual threat capability. The Bills could be without Kyle Williams, one of their best defensive players and a key run defender.
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
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12-11-16 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
Dallas has been maybe the major success story of the NFL season so far. The public loves them betting them past a field goal favorite on the road against a division rival that has won six of its last seven games. New York is 5-1 at home. The Giants are the only team to beat Dallas. New York held the Cowboys to 19 points in that opening week win. The Giants' defense has gotten better since then. Only three teams have surrendered fewer touchdown passes than the Giants. Not once have the Giants yielded more than 24 points during their last nine games. Dallas hasn't lost since that opening week defeat. But the Cowboys have been in four close games the past four weeks. They've been outgained in three of those contests. Both teams play ball control. The Cowboys by running. The Giants by throwing short passes. The Giants just activated their best-catching running back, Shane Vereen. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30's with snow flurries. This has all the makings of another back-and-forth matchup likely decided in the final minute. So I'm happy to take this many points.
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12-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Jaguars | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 36 h 2 m | Show | |
The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack. |
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 111 h 50 m | Show |
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. |
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12-04-16 | Broncos v. Jaguars +3.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 103 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. |
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11-27-16 | Panthers +3 v. Raiders | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 88 h 15 m | Show | |
Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. |
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11-27-16 | Bengals +4 v. Ravens | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 43 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals +5 v. Falcons | 19-38 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 12 m | Show | |
Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. |
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11-27-16 | Titans -3 v. Bears | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 136 h 40 m | Show |
The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot. |
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11-26-16 | Oregon -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force +9 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago. |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. |
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11-20-16 | Patriots -11 v. 49ers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show |
I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6.5 v. Lions | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 51 m | Show | |
The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-27 | Loss | -117 | 41 h 54 m | Show | |
It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. |
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11-19-16 | Duke +7.5 v. Pittsburgh | 14-56 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Duke knows how to win on the road, can take advantage of a weak Pittsburgh secondary and catches the Panthers off a huge upset victory against Clemson. |
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11-18-16 | UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez. |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 95 h 33 m | Show | |
At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot. |
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11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. |
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11-12-16 | Colorado State +6 v. Air Force | 46-49 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
Colorado State is a bit under the radar improving each week. The Rams have covered in six of their last seven wins and are one win from being bowl eligible. They are fresh from having a bye two weeks ago and easily rolling past pathetic Fresno State last Saturday. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. |
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11-10-16 | Browns +10 v. Ravens | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. |
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11-06-16 | Titans +5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-43 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. |
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11-06-16 | Jaguars +8 v. Chiefs | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 96 h 1 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. |
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11-06-16 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 22-16 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. |
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11-05-16 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7 | 21-7 | Loss | -116 | 38 h 1 m | Show | |
Wisconsin always has trouble playing at Northwestern. The Badgers last won there in 1999. The Wildcats also beat the Badgers in Madison last year, winning 13-7. Northwestern has been playing well. The Wildcats had won three in a row and gave Ohio State a tough battle losing 24-20 on the road last week. |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +17.5 | 52-20 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Western Michigan has a lot going. The Broncos are unbeaten, ranked in the top-25 and in line to play in a major bowl game. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. |
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10-30-16 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | 23-29 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 57 m | Show | |
This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -5.5 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 36 m | Show |
It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -6.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
Wake Forest has defeated Army nine straight times. The Demon Deacons were idle last week giving them a needed break and extra prep time to work on stopping Army's one-dimensional option offense. |
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10-29-16 | Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5 | Top | 32-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 19 m | Show |
This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. |
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10-22-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri -7.5 | 51-45 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
The class difference here should result in Missouri winning by double-digits.The Tigers drop down from SEC opponents needing a victory to keep alive their bowl hopes. The Blue Raiders haven't knocked off an SEC foe in 11 years. That's because SEC teams are stronger, quicker and more athletic. |
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10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 125 h 45 m | Show |
This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +12 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. |
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10-15-16 | Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
I love Bill Snyder as a big road 'dog. The Wildcats have covered 17 of their last 22 as a road 'dog. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -123 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. |