40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 122.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 122.5 as Missouri hosts Tennessee in SEC play. I just don't know where the offense is going to come from in this one. The Vols offense has been a complete mess since they lost starting point guard Lamonte Turner. They made 13 3-pointers in their last game against LSU and still only managed 64 points. The game before they totaled a mere 46 at home against Wisconsin. 

Tennessee will be up against an elite Missouri defense here, as the Tigers are allowing just 56.8 ppg overall and a mere 50.7 ppg at home. As for Missouri's offense, they aren't very good either. Tigers are only averaging 67.3 ppg against opponents that allow 66.9 ppg, which is not good at all for a Power 5 team given the cupcakes they face in non-conference play. Only once in the Tigers last 8 games have they scored more than 66 and that was against Chicago State. Give me the UNDER 122.5! 

50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 154) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's Big 10 matchup between Iowa and Penn State. These are two explosive offensive teams. Iowa is 4th in the country in offensive rating and the Nittany Lions are in the Top 50. Penn State also plays at one of the fastest tempos and this thing will be like a track meet with how both like to get out in transition. 

Iowa has scored 77 or more in 4 of their last 5 and are averaging 80.8 ppg on the season. Penn State has scored no fewer than 73 in in their last 7 and are averaging 80.4 ppg. Neither team is all that great defensively, especially when they get matched up against better teams. Give me the OVER 154!

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 138) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 138 between Temple and Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 289th in pace of play and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, especially with the Owls figuring to be a bit flat footed playing their second road game in a 4-day stretch. 

Both of these teams are also really strong on the defensive end. Temple is only giving up 61.9 ppg and just held UCF to a mere 58 points on the road in their last game. Tulsa is only giving up 65.4 ppg and holding teams to 39.5% shooting at home. Owls are a miserable 38.8% from the field in road games this season. Give me the UNDER 138! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 143) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 143 in Friday's Big Ten matchup that has Rutgers visiting Nebraska. I just think both teams are going to easily hit the 70-point mark and that makes it an easy play with a total of 143. Rutgers is 0-3 on the road and scoring just 66.3 ppg away from home. However, they should not have a hard time scoring more than that here. Nebraska is giving up 74.9 ppg and are getting owned inside, so the Knights are going to get a ton of easy looks at the rim to get them going. 

As for the Cornhuskers offense, they have been playing much better of late and Rutgers defense has been not been near as good on the road as it has at home. Nebraska put up 90 at Indiana and 70 at home against Purdue in their two early Big Ten games. I think they come real close to their 75 ppg average in this one. Give me the OVER 143! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 223.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 between the Celtics and Hawks. Atlanta will be getting back their best offensive player in Trae Young and their offensive net rating is 13.9 points higher with him on the floor compared to when he's not. Not to mention he also makes their defense worse. Atlanta just can't defend the pick and roll and Celtics are one of the best in the league at pick and roll offense. 

Other big key here is that because Boston is so much better than Atlanta, this is not a game where they are going to feel the need to lockdown defensively. The proof of that is in recent matchups. OVER has gone 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams including 4-0 in the last 4 games in Boston. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 209.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 209.5 as the Bulls host the Jazz on Thursday. Chicago has been great against bad teams this year, but are just 1-12 SU when playing a team with a winning record and just gave up 123 pontis on 55% shooting in a home loss to the Bucks. I just don't think their defense can keep up against Utah. 

Jazz are known as a defensive team, but they really clicking on offense right now. The addition of Jordan Clarkson has really lit a fire under them. They have scored 100 plus in 9 straight games and are averaging 112.6 ppg in their last 5. Bulls are also playing better offensively of late at 108.4 ppg in their last 5 and a big part of that is the emergence of rookie Coby WHite, who has scored 18+ in 3 of the last 4 and is shooting 61% from deep during this run. Give me the OVER 209.5! 

40* NCAAF CITRUS BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 58)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58 in the Citrus Bowl matchup between Alabama and Michigan. I just don't think either defense is going to be able to slow down the opposing offense in this one. Wolverines defense is built more to stop a power running game than it is the explosive passing game of the Crimson Tide and this is as bad an Alabama defense we have seen in quite some time. Crimson Tide are just decimated with injuries and players not playing on defense and this Michigan offense really improved over the course of the season. Both of these teams also like to play fast and I just think we are going to see a shootout on New Year's Day. Give me the OVER 58! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 220) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 220 in Tuesday's NBA showdown with the Nuggets and Rockets. I know James Harden may or may not play, but I don't think it will matter. If Harden plays the Rockets are going to put up points, as Houston is averaging 118.8 ppg at home. if he doesn't they still probably score a lot as they got more than enough weapons. 

Keep in mind the Nuggets come in averaging 116 ppg in their last 5 and are giving up 110.4 ppg during thsi stretch, so they have been in a lot of up tempo games of late. You also factor in both defenses probably not giving a max effort here on New Year's Eve and this thing should fly past the number. Give me the OVER 220! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 152) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 152 in Tuesday's Big East showdown between Providence and Georgetown. I just feel the books have really missed the mark in this one. I get the Hoyas are a strong offensive team and are averaging 81.8 ppg, but those numbers are definitely inflated due to the non-conference schedule. 

It won't be so easy, especially on the road against a strong defense like Providence, which is only giving up 59.6 ppg and holding teams to 38% shooting at home. Friars are also not the best offensive team, as they have scored 70 or fewer in 5 of their last 7 with the two exceptions coming against Stony Brook and Pepperdine. Give me the UNDER 152! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 136) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 136 in Tuesday's NCAAB matchup that has Clemson hosting Miami. I think we are getting value here on the total because Miami comes in averaging 78.6 ppg over their last, but that has more to do with who they have played during that stretch. 

It just isn't going to be that easy on the road against a conference foe, especially the likes of the Tigers who are only giving up 61.4 ppg on the season and just 57 ppg at home. Clemson just played a game at home against Yale that didn't even get to 100 as the two combined for 99. UNDER has cashed in 4 straight games for the Tigers and it's no surprise with how good they are on defense and how limited they are on offense. Give me the UNDER 136! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 142) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 142 between Davidson and Vanderbilt. Only 3 times all season has a Commodores came finished under this total. The only games that didn't is when they couldn't get their offense going and that won't be a problem here. Davidson plays small a lot and are vulnerable inside and Vanderbilt has the guys to take advantage of that. 

Both of these teams are very efficient offensively, as the Wildcats come in having hit 46% from the field and Vanderbilt is at 47.3%. Both can also light it up from deep, as Davidson averages 9 made 3-pointers and the Commodores average 10. I think this has the potential to hit 160. Give me the OVER 142! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 45.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's game between Kansas City and Los Angeles. Chiefs offense hasn't went off in a while, but have been really close in a number of recent games. I think they are primed for a big showing against a deflated Chargers team that just wants this season to be over with. As for LA's offense, you know Rivers is going to go down swinging and while he did throw 4 picks in an earlier meeting with KC, he also had 353 passing yards. A lot has been made about the Chiefs defense. It's definitely improved, but they have also played their last 4 games against the Bears, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders, who are all struggling on offense. I think we see this thing get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests. 

40* NCAAF COTTON BOWL TOTAL DESTROYER (Under 60.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 60.5 in Saturday's Cotton Bowl showdown between Memphis and Penn State. I think both offenses could struggle to play up to their potential. Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne (left to be new head coach at Old Dominion). Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell (left to be new head coach at FSU). Norvell not only was the head coach but the offensive play caller. I also think both defenses are better than they get credit for. Penn State has an elite defensive front that can make the Tigers one dimensional and the Nittany Lions offense only averaged 23.9 ppg in their 7 games against a Power 5 opponent that finished .500 or better. While Memphis isn't a Power 5 team I think they are real close in terms of talent. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 225) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225 in Thursday's NBA matchup between Memphis and Oklahoma City. Since Ja Morant returned from injury the Grizzlies have been playing at a super fast pace and that combined with their lack of defense has led to the OVER cashing in 6 of their last 7 games. Thunder are also trending up offensively, as they are averaging 116.2 ppg in their last 5 a stretch that has seen an average combined score of 227.8 ppg. Give me the OVER 225! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 226.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in tonight's game that has the Mavericks hosting the Spurs. Dallas should have Doncic back in the lineup and with him they should do whatever they please against a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 116.2 ppg. In fact, both teams could go off here. San Antonio is averaging 120.0 ppg in their last 5 and the Mavs are scoring 117.2 ppg on the season. Both have also brought the offense in division games. Spurs are averaging 121.2 ppg against division opponents and the Mavs are even better at 127.2 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NBA XMAS DAY VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Under 223) 

My money is on the UNDER 223 in the huge Christmas Day matchup between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams are so good that their numbers can sometimes be misleading, especially on the defensive end. Because they have so much offensive talent they don't have to bring it defensively on a nightly basis. There's no concern here with them showing up on that side of the ball in this one. These two have played once already and only combined for 114 points and that was with the Clippers shooting 51% from the field and the two combining for 24 made 3-pointers. I just think a slower pace and a little more defensive intensity are going to keep this thing well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 223! 

40* NBA XMAS DAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 220) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 220 in the big Christmas Day showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. Not many teams have had much success slowing down Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee offense, but few teams have the size and athleticism that the 76ers bring to the table. I really think Philadelphia is going to be able to slow this game down and play more at their tempo at home. Not to mention these are two really good defensive teams. Bucks lead the league in defensive efficiency and the 76ers are sitting in 7th. UNDER is also 6-1 in Milwaukee's last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 11-4-1 in the 76ers last 16 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER 220! 

40* NCAAF HAWAII BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 64) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 64 in the Hawaii Bowl between none other than Hawaii and BYU. These two teams actually just played last year in the middle of October in Provo. The Cougars won that game 49-23 for a combined of 72. 

These two offenses are even more potent this season. BYU comes in at 439.5 ypg (365 ypg in 2018) and Hawaii is averaging 469.7 ypg (420 ypg in 2018). These are also two offenses built on their passing attacks. Rainbow Warriors are 24th in passing compared to 71st in rushing. BYU is 6th in passing compared to 89th in rushing. 

OVER is 15-6 in Hawaii's last 21 non-conference games and 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog. Give me the OVER 64! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 41) 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll once again take my chances here with the OVER in a game involving the Grizzlies. We should have cashed the OVER last night with Memphis and Cleveland, but the Grizzlies were a no show in the 4th quarter and Ja Morant was off with just 8 points. I fully expect Morant to bounce back and for this thing to fly past the total. OVER is still 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 and each of their last 6 have seen at last 220 points. OVER is also 2-0 since Fox returned for Memphis. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* LIBERTY/GA SOUTH CURE BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 57.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's Cure Bowl that has Georgia Southern facing off against Liberty. I just think these two will eclipse 60 points without any problem. Both defenses are really bad and more importantly the weaknesses of both defenses play right into the strength of these two offenses. 

Liberty is a team that likes to air it out. The Flames finished 21st in the nation with 290.5 passing yards/game. That high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Georgia Southern defense that ranked 91st against the pass, giving up 240.6 ypg. Not to mention one that gave up 298 ypg and 8.9 yards/completion against the pass on the road. 

As for the Eagles, if you have watched them at all you know they are almost exclusive a run offense with that triple-option attack. Georgia Southern averaging 333.6 ypg and 260.8 ypg on the ground (8th). Liberty's defense is bad all around, but were 100th against the run, giving up 192.9 ypg. That too are much worse on the road, as they gave up 218 ypg and 5.2 ypg away from home. I think both teams score into the 30's. Give me the OVER 57.5! 

40* NFL BUCS/TEXANS TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 50) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Saturday's NFL game between the Bucs and Texans. At this point it’s almost automatic to lean OVER in any game involving the Buccaneers, as it’s cashed in 11 of their 14 games this season.

There’s even more reason to like the OVER when you factor in how these two teams match up against one another.

Houston has a very balanced offensive attack. Texans rank 7th in rushing (130.9 ypg) and 11th in passing (245.0 ypg). Key here is they will be forced to throw it against this Tampa defense, as the Bucs are allowing a league-low 73.3 rushing yards/game. The good news is Deshaun Watson should have no problem exploiting a TB defense that ranks 30th against the pass (276.8 ypg).

On the flip side of this, the Bucs offense is riding the arm of Jameis Winston for better or worse. It’s resulted in Tampa Bay ranking 28th in rushing (91.4) and 1st in passing (308.8 ypg). While interceptions continue to haunt Winston, he’s coming in having thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last two games. He should stay hot, as the Texans are 28th against the pass (266.1 ypg) and have had a lot more trouble defending the pass since J.J. Watt went down. Give me the OVER 50!

40* UTAH ST/KENT ST FRISCO BOWL MASSACRE (Over 67.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 67.5 in Friday's Frisco Bowl that has Utah State taking on Kent State. Both these teams are capable of scoring in bunches. Utah State is averaging 28.2 ppg and 425 ypg and have one of the best QB's in the country in Jordan Love. Kent State is scoring 27.4 ppg and finished off the year at 35.0 ppg in their last 3. 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223 between the Grizzlies and Cavs. Memphis' is rolling offensively right now and pushing the pace while they are at it. Grizzlies have scored 110 or more points in 7 straight games. They have also allowed 111 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 115.4 ppg on the road. OVER has cashed in each of their last 4 games. 

Cavs aren't the best offensive team, but are scoring 109.6 ppg in their last 5 and should be able to score plenty here at home against a soft Memphis defense. Prior to their last game against Charlotte where the two combined for just 198 points, Cleveland had played 4 straight games with a combined score of 126 or more. Give me the OVER 223! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 234.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 234.5 in Thursday's big NBA showdown on TNT between the Rockets and Clippers. These big TNT games on Thursday are often some of the biggest bet NBA games of the week and the books definitely inflate the total to the OVER in these games. Which is what I think is happening here. 

These two teams have played twice already, so there's familiarity between the two, which favors the defense. They did combine for 141 points in their most recent meeting, but LA shot 52% and Houston shot 46%. I just don't think we are going to see that good of shooting in this one, as I expect max effort defensively. Not to mention the previous meeting this season only saw 195 points and the total for that game was 233.5. GIve me the UNDER 234.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 225 in Thursday's big NBA showdown on TNT between the Lakers and Bucks. These big TNT games on Thursday are often some of the biggest bet NBA games of the week and the books definitely inflate the total to the OVER in these games. Which is what I think is happening here. 

No question these two have a ton of star power and come in scoring at a high rate, but I'm expecting a playoff like atmosphere in this one and both of these teams can be really good defensively when they want to. In fact, Bucks are No.1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Lakers are No. 3. Both are also going to be without some key players, as Bledsoe is a no go for Milwaukee and Kuzma is likely out. Anthony Davis is also likely playing here at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER 225! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 148) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 136.5) 

I'll take my chances with St. Mary's and Arizona State flying past the total of 136.5 in tonight's neutral site matchup in Phoenix. OVER is 6-1 in St. Mary's last 7 games as they continue to light it up from deep. The Gaels are No. 1 in the country in 3-point percentage, hitting 43.8% of their outside shots and average 9-made 3's a game. Arizona State has scored 70+ in four straight and just put up 79 last time out against Georgia. St Mary's defense has struggled of late. Last time out they let Cal shoot 50% and put 77 points. The game before they allowed 53.8% shooting an 78 points to Dayton on a neutral site. I just feel there's a really good chance both teams get to 70-points. Give me the OVER 136.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Grizzlies visiting the Thunder. This is not your Grizzlies from the last decade. Memphis is pushing the pace behind rookie point guard Ja Morant, who has really been playing well. Grizzlies have posted two of their best offensive ratings in their last two games. Memphis loves to get out in transition and that's one area OKC is struggling. Thunder 30th in PPP allowed in transition. On the flip side the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They are giving up 114.5 ppg on the road nad while OKC's offense isn't great, they are averaging 112.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 130.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 130.5 as Cincinnati hosts Tennessee. Both of these teams are built around their defense and this is a huge game for both teams in trying to build up that postseason resume. Not to mention both teams are coming off a loss. Vols are only giving up 55.3 ppg and that's against teams that average 71.1 ppg. Cincy only averages 73.9 ppg. Bearcats are giving up 63.4 ppg and Tennessee only averages 68.6 ppg. I think there's a full 10-points of value with this total. Give me the UNDER 130.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup that has the Suns visiting the Clippers. These two teams played at Phoenix earlier this season and combined for 152 points with the two combining for 28 made 3-pointers and 58 made free throws. Suns will finally get back DeAndre Ayton from his 25-game suspension and he's a big add offensively. Devin Booker is questionable, but I think he could play here. 

Also, Phoenix played a grueling game last night at home against Portland, so don't expect a big defensive effort here. Offensively this team has scored at least 108 points in 10 straight games. Clippers are scoring 116.4 ppg at home and the Suns give up 113.6 ppg on the road. LA could also come out a bit flat defensively, as they just recently finished up a 6-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck Thursday at home against the Rockets. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 153) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 153 between Oklahoma and Creighton. These two teams can both light up the scoreboard. Creighton comes in averaging 78.5 ppg on 48% shooting and those numbers jump up to 83 ppg and 50% from the field at home. The offense figures to get even strong as mid-year transfer Denzel Mahoney is expected to make his debut tonight. Mahoney average 19 ppg and shot 43% from 3 last year with SE Missouri State. 

Oklahoma is scoring 76.3 ppg and only once all season have they failed to hit the 70-point mark. They should have no problem hitting that mark against a soft Creighton defense that has given up 75+ in each of their 3 games so far against a Power 5 opponent. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Sooners last 4 road games and 7-0 away from home in the month of December over the last 3 seasons. Give me the OVER 153! 

50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them. 

As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 49)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 49 in Sunday's game that has the Cowboys hosting the Rams. I just see way too much value here with the number, as Dallas' offense has really struggled to produce against quality defenses and this is not an easy matchup for Prescott. LA has been really good against both the run and the pass. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 106 or fewer rushing yards and have not allowed more than 202 passing yards in 4 straight. 

Dallas' defense made Mitch Trubisky look like a MVP last week and I think that's definitely playing into this number. I just didn't think the Cowboys played with any heart in that game. It was almost like they were shell-shocked that Trubisky could do what he did. Goff was great at home last week against the Seahawks, but he's notoriously a much worse QB on the road. This number says shootout, but I'm calling for a defensive battle. Give me the UNDER 49! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 47.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47.5. The OVER has consistently hit in Tampa Bay games this year, going 10-3 with a strong 6-2 mark in their 8 games away from home.

A big reason for that is the Bucs high-powered passing attack, which comes in ranked 2nd in the at 298.2 ypg. One that should be on full display this Sunday even with star wide out Mike Evans not expected to play. That’s because Winston will be up against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in the league against the pass, giving up 276.5 ypg.

Not to mention the ideal playing conditions in the dome. Note that Tampa has played two games in a dome this season. Both went over the total and the average combined score was 56 points.

One reason this total isn’t 50+ is because of the Lions offense and how bad it looked last week. Not to mention they are down to 3rd string QB David Blough. However, Blough hasn’t been all that bad given his first two starts have come against two pretty good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. He had 280 yards and 2 TD’s at home against Chicago and the Bucs come into this one ranked 31st against the pass, giving up 278.8 ypg.

I could see this one being something very similar to Tampa Bay’s last game with the Colts that ended up 38-35 with both teams eclipsing the 30-point mark. Either way I think they find a way to get to at least 48. Give me the OVER 47.5.!

50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy. 

I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more. 

There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 137.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 137.5 in Saturday's big non-conference game that has Michigan hosting Oregon. The Wolverines are a really good offensive team and as is the case with most teams they are much better at home. Michigan is averaging 88.4 ppg at home and last time they played at the Crisler Center they scored 103 points against Iowa. Oregon comes in scoring 78.9 ppg and are scoring 76.8 ppg in their last 5. I just think both teams are going to hit at least 70 points and if they do we cash this thing easy. Give me the OVER 137.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 223.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 in Friday's matchup that has the Hawks hosting the Pacers. Atlanta is just a great team for the OVER, as they are capable of going off on the offensive side of the ball, but play absolutely no defense. Hawks are giving up 118.8 ppg on the season and opposing teams are shooting 48% against them. Indiana is a strong offensive team and while they can be really good defensively, I don't think we get a great effort on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Pacers are fresh off a max effort in a big upset win at home over Boston and two days prior to that hosted the Clippers. They have to go play this game at Atlanta and then head right back home for 3 more at home, so really easy for them to kinda take the night off defensively against a bad Hawks team. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* JETS/RAVENS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 44.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 44.5 I get the defensive numbers have been decent for New York this season, but look at who they have played. Outside of their division opponents, they have played the Browns, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Bengals.

This is by far the best offensive they have faced. I know Lamar Jackson is nursing a quad injury, but he’s fully expected to play and I can’t imagine the Ravens sending him out there if they don’t feel he’s at or near 100%. I just don’t think the Jets will be able to slow this offense down and with Sam Darnold on the other side, I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore’s defense didn’t find the endzone in this one.

While Darnold could make some costly mistakes, he’s also very capable of guiding this Jets offense up and down the field. Much like New York’s defense will struggle to play well on just 3-days of rest, the same can be said for Baltimore. Not to mention this has the feel of a big flat spot for that Ravens defense, as they have really put it all on the line the last four weeks against the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills. Give me the OVER 44.5.

50* NBA ATLANTIC DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 210.5) 

My money is on the UNDER 210.5 in Thursday's big showdown between the Celtics and 76ers. Both of these teams are trying to lay claim as the best team in the east and both are going to bring it. 76ers are not the same offensive team on the road as they are at home, while Boston is likely down one of their top scorers in Hayward. Both teams are also in some tough scheduling spots with not a lot of rest, so the pace should be even slower than it typically would. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 62.5. My biggest reason for liking the OVER is these two combined for 65 points in the first meeting with Oklahoma only scoring 10-points in the 1st half and Baylor getting shutout in the 2nd half. I think we see both teams score early and often the second time around. Keep in mind last year’s Big 12 title game against Texas saw 66 points and 945 total yards of offense.

I will admit I’m a lot more confident with Oklahoma’s offense putting up a big number. It was like once Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley figured out what Baylor was wanting to do on defense, there was no stopping them. Keep in mind they only punted once the entire game in that first meeting.

As for the Bears not scoring in the 2nd half, they just didn’t get a chance to get anything going. Baylor fumbled on their first possession of the 2nd half and went 3 and out on their next two possessions. There was 5:25 left in the 4th quarter and the Bears had run a mere 7 plays in the 2nd half. They still averaged a healthy 5.9 yards/play in that matchup. Give me the OVER 62.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 139.5 between Mississippi State and La Tech in Thursday's college hoops action. These are two really good offensive teams. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.4 ppg and have scored at least 72 in every game. In their two step up games against Creighton and Indiana, they combined for 154 and 163 points, giving up 80+ in both matchups. Mississippi State just put up 81 on the road at Coastal Carolina and are shooting 49.7% from the field on the season. I think both teams could hit 75 in this one. Give me the OVER 139.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Wizards. Washington is just an ideal OVER team, as they like to push the pace and don't play any defense. Wizards are No. 1in the league in pace of play and No. 30 in defensive efficiency. With Thomas Bryant a no go for Washington, Wizards frontcourt is in big trouble here against Embiid. Note backup big man Ian Mahinmi is also out and Mortiz Wagner is questionable. I could see Philadelphia scoring 130+ in this one, but they likely only need to hit 120 for us to cash this one, as Washington is averaging 121.4 ppg at home. GIve me the OVER 233! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 144.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 between BYU and Utah. The Cougars come in ranked 26th nationally in offensive efficiency and senior Yoeli Childs will make his debut after being suspended for the first 9 games. Childs averaged 21.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg last year. Utah can also score, as they are averaging 81.4 ppg on the season and 97.7 ppg at home. They have shot a ridiculous 59.3% from the field at home and 47.9% from deep. Give me the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 144.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 in Tuesday's Big 10/ACC matchup between Iowa and Syracuse. This is not your usual Orange powerhouse team. They just gave up 85 to Penn State and 86 to Oklahoma State. I think the defensive woes are going to be a lingering problem and Iowa is a team that not only loves to push the pace, but score the ball effectively. I also think they got the shooters to exploit the Cuse zone defense. I got both teams easily eclipsing 70 and this thing finishing closer to 155. Take the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 146.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 in Monday's ACC/Big Ten challenge matchup that has Miami visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini have the looks of one of the most improved teams in the country and are absolutely on fire offensively to start out the new season. Illinois comes in averaging 88.3 ppg and that goes up to 93.3 ppg at home. They will be facing a Miami team that has not been able to stop any quality opponent from putting up a ton of points. Hurricanes allowed 87 to Louisville, 78 to Florida and 80 to UConn. All 3 of those teams shot 53% or better from the field. I would be shocked if Illinois didn't get 80 and that means we need just 70 from Miami to get us clear of the number. Give me the OVER 146.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 47) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47. This game has shootout written all over it and I think we are getting a great price here because of how bad the Rams offense looked in that blowout loss to the Ravens. While I do think LA's got some problems with their offense, they should have no trouble moving the ball here against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona's giving up 30.6 ppg 417 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Key here is I think Murray and the Cardinals offense can go score-for-score with the Rams. Give me the OVER 47! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER. The Clippers just put on a defensive clinic last night against the Mavs and have the looks of an elite defensive team when they want to be. I don't think we get that same effort on the defensive side of the ball in the second game of a back-to-back, especially against a bad Memphis team. Grizzlies are awful defensively and I could see the Clippers scoring 125 or more here. I think we get more than enough offense from Memphis at home to push this over. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 216.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216.5. I was on the OVER and lost in Chicago's last game, as the Pistons were a complete no-show scoring just 89 points and shooting 34% from the field. I'm not buying that being a sign of the Bulls defense turning a corner. IT's also the second time this season Chicago has held an opponent under 100 points. 

Bulls aren't the best offense, but they are playing as fast as anyone right now and I don't think we get a max effort here from Miami on the defensive side in the first game of a back-to-back with a much bigger at Philly on deck tomorrow. I do think the Heat's offense has a big game. Miami has hit 50% or better from the field in 4 straight games and will have their way against this Bulls defense. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 227.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 227.5 in Thursday's TNT matchup that has the Bucks hosting the Blazers. Portland's offense figures to be in a world of hurt in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a bad back. They got no choice here but to try and slow this game down, as they simply can't go score for score with the Bucks and expect to keep it close. As for Milwaukee, I think they too will be looking to play at a slower pace given they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just finished up a 3-game road trip. Also, good chance this gets out of hand and I think blowouts are much more favorable to games staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 227.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 219, as I think these two could easily get into the 230's. Chicago might be a bad team, but they got some playmakers on offense and love to push the pace. Bulls have played at a 107.6 pace in their last 5 games, which is the best mark in the league over that span. Chicago loves to attack in transition and the Pistons are one of the worst at defending in transition. Bulls also have a bad defense. Chicago is giving up 111.3 ppg and 115 over their last 5. Detroit is averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5 and giving up 112 ppg. Give me the OVER 219! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208. I just think we are going to see a very slow paced game and both of these teams are strong defensively. Magic play at one of the slowest paces in the league and the Raptors pace of play has been on the decline, largely because they haven't had Kyle Lowry in the lineup. He's still out. Toronto has gone 6 straight games holding opponents to 44% or worse from the field and are facing a Magic team that is only scoring 98.5 ppg on the road this season. These two played back on 10/28 and combined for just 199 and I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed below the 200 mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 208! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.

Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.

Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.

I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.

As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 140.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 140.5 in tonight's big college hoops matchup between Oklahoma and Oregon State. Both of these teams are really strong on the defensive side of the ball. It's why the total is what it is when Oklahoma is averaging 78 ppg and Oregon State is scoring 83.5 ppg. UNDER is 13-3 in the Sooners last 16 non-conference games and 13-4 in the Beavers last 17 after scoring 75 or more in 2 straight games. Give me the UNDER 140.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 51.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. OVER has cashed in 6 straight games for Tampa Bay with every single one of those game seeing at least 50 points. Bucs have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6. The only team they held under the mark is an awful Titans offense, who put up 27. Cardinals have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 4 and have scored 25 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 234) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 234. No reason to overthink this one. The OVER is almost an automatic play with the Pelicans right now. OVER is 6-1 in New Orleans' first 7 games, as they are scoring 119 ppg and giving up 124 ppg. Pelicans love to push the pace and should be flying up and down the court here coming off 3 days of rest. Toronto also has fresh legs, as they will be playing just their 3rd game in the last 9 days. Give me the OVER 234! 

50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5) 

The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.

I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.

As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.

OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 236)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 236 in Monday's NBA tilt between Golden State and New Orleans. Both of these teams love to play up-tempo, as each ranks in the Top 10 in pace of play. Both are also poor defensively, ranking in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. You don't get a much better combo than that for a high-scoring game. Give me the OVER 236! 

50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)

You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.

Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.

Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 222)

I'll gladly take the OVER at just 222 in tonight's game between Chicago and Memphis. The Bulls are going to be a great OVER team with all that offensive talent. They didn't have anywhere close to their best game and still put up 125 in their opener. Defense will be a problem. They let the Hornets shoot 23 of 44 (52%) from deep. Memphis only scored 101 in their opener, but only had 41 in the 2nd half. That was on the road against a good Miami team. They will be better at home. Give me the OVER 222! 

40* NBA NO DOUBT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 227.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Friday's matchup between the Hornets and Wolves. I was shocked at how well Charlotte shot the ball from deep in their opener against the Bulls. Some of that was bad defense by Chicago, but you don't make 23 3-pointers on accident. Half of the HOrnets shots were 3's and they had 3 different guys make 5 or more. Minnesota to me is the ideal over team with the talent they got on offense and the lack of defense that is played. Minnesota put up 43 3-pointers in their opener against the Nets. BET THE OVER 227.5!

50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42) 

I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.

It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.

You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.

I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.

OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!

50* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 232.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232.5 in tonight's matchup between the Suns and Kings.   A ton of young talent on both of these rosters and one thing young teams struggle with is playing defense, especially in games that don't matter this early in the season. Not to mention, these two were playing at two of the fastest paces in the preseason, so the tempo is going to be ideal for a high-scoring game. BET THE OVER 232.5! 

40* NBA (OVER 210)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in tonight's Central Division showdown between the Pacers and Pistons. Indiana was really pushing the pace this preseason and I don't think the Pistons are going to slow them down on their home floor. Detroit will be without Griffin, but I still think they got enough shooters to push this thing over the small total. BET THE OVER 210! 

40* NATIONALS/ASTROS WORLD SERIES GAME 1 (Under 6.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 6.5 in Game 1 of the World Series. You got Max Scherzer going for Washington and Gerrit Cole on the mound for Houston. Both of these guys are capable of going 7 scoreless and I just don't see more than a couple runs on the board in this one. BET THE UNDER 6.5! 

50* NBA OPENING NIGHT MAX BET WINNER  (Over 231) 

You can't read a ton from preseason games, but one thing I like to look at is pace. Both these teams ranked in the Top 5 in pace of play this preseason. I think without Kawhi the Raptors will be looking to push the pace a lot more, as they need those easy buckets in transition. As for the Pelicans, they are a young group of kids that want to fly up and down the floor. No Zion no problem, there's a lot more talent than him on this team. They got a lot of guys who can shoot the 3. I got both teams reaching 120 in this one. BET THE OVER 231! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER NO-BRAINER(Over 48.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFL action. These are two teams that not long ago were known for having elite defenses, but that's not the case anymore. Both these teams are built around their talented mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson has the Ravens averaging 30.7 ppg and 451 ypg, while Wilson has the Seahawks at 27.5 ppg and 400 ypg. Both defenses have not been good. Baltimore is allowing 4.4 yards/rush, 61% completions, 7.7 yards/pass attempt and 6.5 yards/play. Seattle is allowing 4.7 yards/rush, 64% completions, 7 yards/pass attempt and 6.2 yards/play. BET THE OVER 48.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5! 

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense. 

Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47! 

50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)

It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.

The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores. 

I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.

As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.

You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.

OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!

Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road). 

Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt. 

Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson. 

Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41) 

New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.

You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.

I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.

At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.

The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.

Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.

As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.

You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.

Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!

50* RAYS/A'S AL WILD CARD TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 7.5) 

I love the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's AL Wild Card matchup. You got two really good starters going in a pitchers park (Coliseum). Tampa will send out Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 33 starts this season. Morton had a strong 8-3 record with a 3.59 ERA in 16 road starts and owns a 3.20 ERA in 7 career outings against the A's. Oakland will turn to Sean Manaea, which is pretty amazing. Manaea only made 5 starts after missing close to a year because of injury. He looked as good as ever in those 5 outings, posting a 1.21 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. He recorded 17 or more outs in each of his last 4 starts and after walking 5 in his first two outings, hel only walked 2 over his last 3. We also know that we will see the best of the best relievers in this winner take all matchup. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60) 

I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF. 

Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions. 

At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60! 

50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.

I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.

Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.

As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.

OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing  in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!

50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 55) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 55. While the Boilermakers are coming off a crushing loss to Nevada, the loss was more on the defense. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and were throwing the football all over the place. Not to mention they were playing with even more pace than last year. 

Vanderbilt wants to play faster and have some serious weapons at the skill positions. The Commodores couldn't get anything going against an elite Georgia defense, but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one. This total should be closer to 60 and I wouldn't be shocked if the two combined for 70. Give me the OVER 55! 

50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Oregon St/Oklahoma St OVER 74)

I was originally going to lay the points with Oklahoma State, but there's just something about a game in Corvallis that scares me. However, I'm not concerned with the Cowboys ability to score points with whoever ends up playing QB. 

Gundy is a QB guru and he just added in Sean Gleeson from Princeton to be his OC. Gleeson did some pretty innovative stuff with Princeton and he's got a ton of playmakers at his disposal. None better than junior wide out Tylan Wallace. 

Oregon State has 9 guys back on defense, but that doesn't mean as much when it's from a unit that gave up 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg. Opposing QB's completed 64% of their attempts against the Beavers secondary in 2018. 

Oregon State gave up 40 or more in 7 of their 12 games last year, including 77 in the opener to Ohio State. 

Key here is that while OK State is primed to put up a big number, I think the Beavers will do their part offensively behind senior QB Jake Luton and some talented skill players. Also, Cowboys only have 5 starters back on a defense that wasn't great in 2018. Give me the OVER 74! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 59.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5. When I first looked at this game I considered laying the 25 points with ASU and would probably still lean that way. However, I feel there's a lot more value here with the OVER, as we simply need 60 points to reach our mark. 

Arizona State was way better than expected in year one under Herm Edwards and they did that with a pretty mediocre offense (29.9 ppg). I think they are closer to 35 ppg in 2019 and should score a ton against a Kent State defense that is outmatched. I'm really excited to see freshmen quarterback Jayden Daniels, who should thrive with how much defenses will have to respect the run with Eno Benjamin back (1,642 yards, 16 touchdowns). 

The even bigger key here is the tempo "FlashFAST" in which Kent State second year head coach Sean Lewis is looking to play at. He's a former OC under Dino Babers and their uptempo offense at Syracuse. Last year he got a Kent State offense that returned just 6 starters from a team that averaged 12.8 ppg and got them 23.9 ppg with more than 100 yards/game improvement. They got 9 starters back, including one of the better QBs in the MAC in Woody Barrett. I think this is going to be a much better offense than anyone anticipates. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. I know the Nationals have score 16 runs in the first two games of the series, but Chicago will have Cole Hamels on the mound and he's posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 10 home starts. He'll be 100% locked in with the team desperately needing a win here. Cubs offense has been real quiet of late and figures to stay that way against Stephen Strasburg. In 9 career starts against Chicago, Strasburg has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. Both of these starters also love pitching in day games. Hamels has a 2.48 ERA in 9 day starts, while Strasburg owns a 2.87 ERA in 11 day starts. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)

If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.

Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.

One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.

It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.

Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.

Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.

UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!

50* NFLX VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 42) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER. The Giants have put up 30 points on their own in each of their first two preseason games and they got quite the 1-2 punch for the preseason in Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones. Manning really seems to be using the push from Jones in a positive way. He's a perfect 5-5 and led NY to a TD on his only drive last week. Even 3rd and 4th stringers Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta have played well. We saw Cincinnati's defense get torched for 38 by the Chiefs in their first game. Giants defense has looked decent, but a lot of that has to do with the Bears only using quarterbacks Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray last week. Andy Dalton will be in there a decent amount and the Bengals have a pretty decent rookie QB of their own in Ryan Finley, who was 20 of 26 for 150 yards and 2 scores last week. Give me the OVER 42! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Cardinals OVER 9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5. Yesterday we played the OVER 11 in Milwaukee's game with Washington and the two combined for 24. That's now 30 runs in the last 2 games that the Brewers pitching has allowed. The bullpen is taxed and that's a problem, as it will be tough for the starters to go deep in this one. The heat index at game time is expected to be around 105 degrees with almost no wind. It's going to be miserable conditions to pitch. Look for some big innings by both teams that have this thing easily reaching double-digits. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Nationals Over 11) 

The Nationals and Brewers combined for 29 runs in Milwaukee's 15-14 win in 14-innings on Saturday. Not only are both offenses headed into Sunday swinging a confident bat, but both of these teams' bullpens were taxed yesterday. Add in a pretty mediocre pitching matchup of Anderson vs Fedde and awful conditions with a heat index around 100 and I think we see these two fly past the total. Give me the OVER 11! 

40* NFLX OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 41) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 41. Two of the better backups in the league will be featured here with the Patriots Brian Hoyer (12 of 14 for 147 yards 2 TDs in Week 1) and the Titans Ryan Tannehill (12 of 16, 130 yards 2 TDs Week 1). Not mention both 3rd string guys played well. New Englands Jarrett Stidham threw for 179 yards and a score, while Logan Woodside of the Titans has 138 yards and 2 TD passes. Plenty of chances for scoring throughout this game. Give me the OVER 41! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. We have cashed in on the UNDER in each of the first two games in the series and it hasn't been close. Game 1 had a total of 3 runs with a total of 8.5. Game 2 had 2 runs with a total of 8.5. We have the same 8.5 total posted for Game 3 and I see another strong pitching matchup. Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound, who is coming off a start at Milwaukee where he allowed just 4 hits in 7 shutout innings. Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty, who has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER once again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. I cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER 8.5 Tuesday, as St Louis squeaked out a 2-1 win. I think we are in line for another pitchers duel tonight, as the Cubs send out Kyle Hendricks and the Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas. Hendricks has a 3.06 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 17 starts against St Louis and Mikolas has a sensational 1.95 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 starts vs the Cubs. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesdays' series opener between the Cubs and Cardinals. Chicago will send out Yu Darvish, who has finally start to pitch like the guy they thought they were getting when they signed him to the big deal. Darvish has a 2.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. A stretch where he's allowed just 10 hits, with only 2 walks and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings. Cardinals counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who has pitched exceptionally well at home compared to on the road. Wainwright has a 2.33 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER at 9 in Sunday's series finale between the Brewers and Diamondbacks. A lot of people aren't going to think a pitchers duel when they see Brandon Woodruff vs Alex Young, but that's exactly what I'm expecting. Woodruff just keeps flying under the radar, despite a 11-3 record and 3.53 ERA in 19 starts. He's been lights out of late with a 1.33 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Young is making his 4th start since joining the rotation on June 27th. He's 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.551 WHIP in those 3 starts. UNDER is also a dominant 11-1 in the Diamondbacks 12 home games over the last 2 seasons when listed as a dog of +125 or more. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers and Red Sox combining for double-digit runs on Saturday. These two combined for 9 on Friday with LA scoring just 1 run. I think they hit 10 runs easy. Chris Sale is considered the ace of the Boston staff, but he's pitched like a No. 5 starter at best of late. Sale has a 7.02 ERA and 1.620 WHIP In his last 3 starts, giving up 14 runs on 22 hits (5 HRs) in his last 16 2/3 innings. It's a similar story for Dodgers starter Ross Stripling, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Just too much offensive fire-power between these two teams and the ball should carry at hitter friendly Fenway Park with temps expected in the mid 80s and light wind. Give me the OVER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Cardinals and Padres. These two teams combined for just 4 runs in Friday's series opener and I don't see either offense exploding with today's starters. St Louis will send out the consistent Dakota Hudson who just keeps churning out Quality Starts. Hudson also has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Chris Paddack will go for the Padres and he's struggled a bit of late, but is coming off a couple of solid outings and has a very strong 2.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in Hudson's 6 road starts this season and 5-1 in Paddack's 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I know we just saw these two fly past the total in Game 3, but that was simply a result of the Warriors not bringing the energy on the defensive side of the ball. Raptors were getting way too many layups, which in turn upped their confidence and I believe led to them going 17-38 (44%) from deep. They were +5 on 3-pointers over the Warriors. They were just 11-38 (29%) in Game 2, so we should expect to see regression from Game 3. Golden State can't go down 3-1 with 2 of the next 3 in Toronto. They have to win, which means max effort defensively. I think the same applies for the Raptors. If they are serious about dethroning the champs they need to win this game with Durant out and Thompson at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER! 

50* RAPTORS/WARRIORS GAME 3 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 213.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 3. It took an unthinkable scoring drought at the end of Game 2 for that to stay UNDER the total. I think that has a lot of people going back to the OVER in Game 3. Not me. Durant has already been ruled out and I think there's a decent chance that Klay Thompson doesn't play or plays at way less than 100%. We saw how hard it was for the Warriors to score once Thompson went out and I think the effort is going to be there for Toronto, especially on the defensive end. I could easily see both teams not getting to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 213.5!