|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-25-21||Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229.5||119-109||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 229.5)
The line here screams take the Pacers and I might end up throwing a little on Indiana in this one, but I think the even better value is on the OVER 229.5.
I think a lot of people expected this Pacers offense to struggle early with starters Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren sidelined. It hasn't. They got 3 guys who are scoring 20+ ppg. Sabonis is at 26.0 ppg, Brogdon is at 24.7 ppg and 1st round rookie Duarte is at 20.3 ppg. They rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. They also are playing fast, as they rank 5th in the NBA in pace.
They also catch a break in this one, as the Bucks will be without two starters and two of their better defenders in Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday.
You might be wondering about the Bucks offense without those two guys, but they still got Antetokounmpo and Middleton to carry that offense. I also don't think this Pacers defense is anything special. They just held Miami to 91 in their last game, but that Heat team shot horrific and really looked lost without point guard Kyle Lowry. Give me the OVER 229.5!
|10-24-21||Chiefs v. Titans OVER 57||3-27||Loss||-110||68 h 19 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57)
We didn't get their with the Chiefs OVER last week, as KC's defense played it's best game of the year. The Chiefs held Washington scoreless in the 2nd half and to just 13 points for the game. While I would expect that KC defense to not be as bad as it was to start the year, let's not forget who they were playing. Washington is a complete mess right now.
I just don't see a scenario in this game where the Chiefs are able to contain Derek Henry for the Titans. KC has one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 133 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Tennessee is going to be in 2nd and short all game long.
On the flip side of this, the Chiefs offense should be in for a field day as well. While Patrick Mahomes and that KC offense hasn't quite looked as good as what we expected to see, they are still an elite offensive team. They are scoring 30.8 ppg, putting up 434 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play.
Mahomes and that Chiefs offense will be up against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 276 passing yards/game and 7.7 passing yards per attempt. That's with playing half of their games against the Jags, Jets and Colts. They gave up 280 to Kyler Murray, 320 to Russell Wilson and 335 to Josh Allen. Mahomes has thrown for 740 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 starts vs the Titans. Play the OVER 57!
|10-23-21||Georgia Tech v. Virginia OVER 63||40-48||Win||100||54 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night Total SHARP PLAY (Over 63)
I like the OVER 63 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia. I just don't see the Yellow Jackets going on the road with that awful secondary and having any shot of slowing down Virginia's prolific passing attack. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65% of their pass attempts and are averaging 8.2 yards/attempt.
Virginia is 3rd in the country in pass attempts per game behind junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He's already thrown for 2,824 yards and 19 TDs and is completing 64% of his attempts. Cavaliers are averaging 8.4 passing yards/attempt.
The only chance the Yellow Jackets have of making a game of this, is to go score for score with Virginia. I don't know if they can, but I do think they can get into the 20s no problem. I know the Cavaliers just shutout Duke last week, but this is not a very good Virginia defense. Give me the OVER 63!
|10-22-21||Suns v. Lakers UNDER 223||115-105||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223)
It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets.
You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me.
The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds.
Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223!
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41||14-17||Win||100||21 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Broncos/Browns TNF NO-BRAINER (Under 41)
This is a game that I planned on just staying away from with all the big injuries to Cleveland, as I just didn't think there was enough value with Denver at less than a field goal (do I like the Broncos on a 6-pt teaser). That was until I saw the expected weather conditions for this game. It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland on Thursday. They are calling for consistent winds north of 20 mph with gusts pushing 30 mph.
You just can't throw the ball like you normally would when it's this windy and it can turn what would be easy field goals into 50/50 propositions.
It was already going to be a tall task for the Browns offense in this game. With Baker Mayfield sidelined, they are starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Both of their top two backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are out. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are both questionable, as are both starting offensive tackles.
The good news is the Browns should be fine defensively in this one. I know they have been torched the last two weeks by the Chargers and Cardinals, but those are two of the top offensive teams in the NFL. Denver struggles to just put 20 points on the scoreboard. They are averaging 21.0 ppg and that's with 3 games against the Giants, Jags and Jets. They are also a poor running team, which will make it that much harder on them with the poor throwing conditions. Give me the UNDER 41.
|10-21-21||Tulane v. SMU OVER 70.5||26-55||Win||100||21 h 32 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Thursday Night Total ANNIHILATOR (OVER 70.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 70.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulane and SMU. I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. The Mustangs rank 10th in the country in scoring at 40.7 ppg. Tulane isn't quite that potent, but are 36th at 32.8 ppg.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if SMU put up 50 points in this game. When faced up against a good offense, Tulane's defense hasn't been able to keep the opposing team out of the end zone. They gave up 40 to Oklahoma in Week 1 and we have seen how much better that OU offense is now compared to back then. They allowed 61 to Ole Miss and that's with the Rebels scoring their last point at the 7:35 mark in the 3rd quarter. They gave up 52 to East Carolina and 40 in their last game against Houston.
The big key here is I don't think we need 50 out of SMU to cash the OVER in this game. I know SMU's defensive numbers look pretty good. The Mustangs are only giving up 22.2 ppg and 391 ypg. However, a lot of that is who they have played. The only two games I think they have played an offense with a pulse is matchups vs TCU and La Tech. They gave up 34 to the Horned Frogs and 37 to the Bulldogs. I got Tulane in the 30s in this one. Give me the OVER 70.5!
|10-20-21||Bulls v. Pistons OVER 219.5||94-88||Loss||-109||21 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5)
I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr.
I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets.
Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league.
The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together.
Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game.
I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5!
|10-17-21||Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 55.5||31-13||Loss||-105||96 h 34 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I don't care what the number is, I want to be on the OVER in Chiefs' games as much as possible. At least until that defense shows us any sort of inkling that they can stop the opposing team from moving the ball up and down the field.
There's just not much to like with what you have seen from that KC defense. They don't have the size up front to keep teams from running the ball, they don't tackle great and they get zero pass rush.
I don't care if you think Washington's offense is good or not. They are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. Just look at what the Eagles did against this KC defense a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs weren't able to force a single punt out of Philly and that same Eagles offense managed just 273 yards last week against the Panthers (punted 5 times and had a safety in just the 1st half).
On the flip side of this, I still think Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is one of the best in the league. They have just had to press so much on offense against good teams because of how bad the defense has been, they haven't quite performed up to potential. Washington isn't good enough on defense to slow this offense down. They have given up 43 to the Bills, 30 to the Falcons and 33 to the Saints in their last 3 games. KC is going to score 30 and maybe even into the 40s. I think Washington also has a good shot here to put up close to 30 points. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|10-17-21||Chargers v. Ravens OVER 51.5||6-34||Loss||-110||87 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (OVER 51.5)
I see some value with the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's big AFC showdown between the Ravens and Chargers. These two teams have shown that they can light up the scoreboard. The Chargers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last 3 games and the Ravens just put up 31 last week against the Colts.
The even bigger thing for me is how these two teams matchup. While Lamar Jackson has been throwing it all over his last two opponents (758 yards, including 442 last week against the Colts), Baltimore figures to be much more balanced in this game. The Chargers are the worst team in the league against the run. Not only are they giving up a league worst 157.6 ypg (12.4 ypg more than the next closest team), they are giving up a league worst 5.6 yards/carry.
As for the Ravens offense, they have looked a little better here of late, giving up just 16.3 ppg over their last 3, it's come against the Lions, Broncos and Colts. It's also worth noting they were lucky to only give up 25 to Indy. The Colts had over 500 yards of offense with 390 thru the air.
I just don't see them being able to contain Justin Herbert and this explosive Chargers offense. I think there's a really good chance that we could see both teams go for 30+ points and all we need is for something like 28-24 to cash a winning ticket. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-16-21||Ole Miss v. Tennessee OVER 82||31-26||Loss||-110||69 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Over 82)
You don't see a lot of college football totals in the 80's and I think the high number might scare some people away, even though every knows there's going to be points galore scored in this game. I just think that given how fast these two teams play, how explosive they are offensively and the lack of defensive talent these two possess, there's a very high probability that these two eclipse this big number.
I think most know by now that Ole Miss is an offensive juggernaut under Lane Kiffin. I don't know if everyone is aware of just how good Tennessee has been on offense and how fast first year head coach Josh Heupel has this team playing.
Just on the number of possessions alone that both offenses figure to have, it's really not asking a lot for these two teams to get well into the 80s. I mean we just saw Ole Miss/Arkansas combine for 103 points last week.
Tennessee has played 4 Power 5 opponents and 3 of the 4 have seen at least 65 and those 3 were against the likes of Pitt, Missouri and South Carolina. They combined for 86 on the road vs Missouri.
I definitely don't see the Vols defense being able to slowdown Corral and the Rebels. On the flip side, I don't trust the Ole Miss defense at all, especially in this spot. How much can they have left in the tank defensively after back-to-back games against Alabama and Arkansas. Give me the OVER 82!
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52||Top||28-22||Loss||-117||23 h 15 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Bucs/Eagles MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52)
I love the OVER 52 in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Eagles. I already think there's an edge to the OVER in these Thursday games, but this matchup we have in Week 6 has shootout written all over it.
I'm extremely confident that Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to score and score a lot. Not only do they have the best to ever do it at quarterback, but they got one of the best set of skill players in the league. I also think we have seen when Tampa Bay gets matched up with a poor defense they aren't afraid to run it up. They put up 48 on the Falcons and 45 last week against the Dolphins.
Philly's defense isn't horrible, but their strength is their defensive line and it's just not going to be a big factor in this game. Not only do the Bucs have a pretty good offensive line, few are better than Brady at getting it to the open guy before the pressure gets home.
Eaglys have faced two offenses that are similar in the Cowboys and Chiefs. Both Dallas and Kansas City did whatever they wanted. Cowboys put up 41 and the Chiefs scored 42. Would not shock me at all if TB had 40+ in this game.
The other big key here is the Bucs aren't an elite defense by any means. I know they only gave up 17 in each of their last two games, but that was against two bad offenses. One led by a rookie in Mac Jones and the other a subpar veteran in Jacoby Brissett. Jalen Hurts should be able to make some plays and I feel pretty good about the Eagles scoring at least 24 in this one. Give me the OVER 52!
|10-14-21||Georgia Southern v. South Alabama UNDER 51||14-41||Loss||-110||22 h 20 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Thursday CFB Night Total ANNIHILATOR (UNDER 51)
The UNDER 51 in the South Alabama/Georgia Southern is is the only thing I'm betting in college tonight. These are two teams that love to run the football. The Jaguars run it on average 40 times per game (57.1%) and the Eagles rush it 47 times per game (67%).
Even when the run isn't really working, these two teams are going to keep trying to establish it. Both also will look to milk the ball with the run if they get any kind of lead. I don't think either team is going to have a ton of success on the ground. Georgia Southern may put up a decent number, but they are going to have to earn it by running it 40-50 times.
Just look at last year's game between these two. Georgia Southern won the matchup by a final score of just 24-17. Neither offense could do much in that game and 14 of the 41 points that were scored came in the 4th quarter (strongly considering doubling down with U24 in the first half).
The line being a pick'em is also worth a note. UNDER has cashed in 11 of South Alabama's last 13 when the line is 3 or less, either way. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 games played and 8-1 in their last 9 in games played Weeks 5-9. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-12-21||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57||Top||13-41||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57)
I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected.
I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game).
While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home.
UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57!
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5||Top||25-31||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Colts/Ravens MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 46.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 46.5 between the Ravens and Colts on Monday Night Football. Both offense figure to have a hard time putting up points on the board. Indy's offense is stuck in neutral with Carson Wentz. The Colts are averaging just 20.8 ppg, 326 ypg and 5.2 yard/play. Numbers that really look bad when you consider the 4 opponents they have played are giving up on average 26.3 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play.
Don't expect this Colts offense to figure it out on the road against a strong Ravens defense. Last two times out, Baltimore has held the Lions to 17 and the Broncos to 7.
On the flip side of this, the Colts defense is well suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The biggest thing to slowing down Baltimore is keeping Jackson from running wild. Colts are built to do that. Indy comes in giving up just 331 ypg.
These two teams played last year and combined for just 34 points with a total of 47.5. UNDER has cashed in 9 of Wentz's last 14 starts. UNDER is also 19-5 in the Ravens last 14 at home off a win by 14 or more and 29-15 in Indy's last 44 off a win as a road dog. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|10-10-21||Bears v. Raiders OVER 44||20-9||Loss||-110||102 h 35 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I'm going the OVER 44 in Sunday's game between the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders. I see this game getting into the 50s without much problem. I don't know if it's the lack of faith in this Bears offense or how bad the Raiders' offense looked on MNF against the Chargers, but this total is too low.
One thing that I think people are really concerned with when it comes to Chicago's offense is the loss of running back David Montgomery. He's really been the focal point of their offense to this point. I just don't think there's a huge drop off with backup Damien Williams. He had 55 yards and a score on just 8 attempts last week against the Lions.
The other big thing is who will be the QB for Chicago. It could be Justin Fields or it might be Andy Dalton. It doesn't really matter to me. I think Fields is growing more and more comfortable with each start and Dalton isn't as bad as people think. We have also seen the offense look instantly better once head coach Matt Nagy gave up play calling duties.
Either way, I think this is a plus matchup for the Bears offense against this Raiders defense. Las Vegas gave up 17 to a hopeless Steelers offense and 28 to the Dolphins with backup Jacoby Brissett at QB. Chicago is going to have their chances to put points on the board.
Let's also not forget that this is a bit of a tough spot for the Raiders playing on short rest after their game on MNF with the Chargers. I think the lack of rest hurts the defense more than anything.
On the flip side of this, I don't think the Bears defense is anything close to as good as what people think. Chicago has got old and slow on the defensive side of the ball. They still got some decent pass rushers, but their secondary is awful and they may be without one of their top interior linemen in Akiem Hicks. A guy that would have a plus matchup here against the weak interior line of the Raiders.
Prior to laying an egg against the Chargers, Derek Carr was lighting up secondaries. Las Vegas had scored 33 against the Ravens, 26 against the Steelers and 31 vs the Dolphins. I think Carr is going to have a huge bounceback game here and guide the Raiders to 30+ points. I probably lay it with Las Vegas if I had to play the side, but I don't see near the value in the number as I do with the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8||Top||2-6||Push||0||10 h 19 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Yankees/Red Sox AL WILD CARD Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's AL Wild Card matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox. I think we are getting some value with the number here because of how poor the two starters performed down the stretch.
New York's Gerrit Cole has a 7.65 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It wasn't much better for Boston's Nathan Eovaldi in his last 3, as he posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP.
I just don't think you can overreact to those numbers. Cole is a guy that has been outstanding in the playoffs since leaving the Pirates. He had a 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 3 playoff starts last year and a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 5 starts with the Astros in 2019.
We don't have the same long-term track record with Eovaldi. He's only made 2 postseason starts and both came back in 2018. The stage wasn't too big for him then, as he had 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings in those 2 outings. Eovaldi has a 3.39 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 19 home starts and 3.33 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 13 career starts vs the Yankees. New York also comes into this game having just scored a mere 5 runs at home in that massive 3-game series at home against the Rays.
You also have to factor in this being the playoffs and managers not letting a guy go too deep in the game. Any signs of trouble and he's getting the guy out of there.
Weather should also help keep this total low, as it's only going to be in the low 60s for this game with whatever wind there is blowing in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8!
|10-04-21||Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5||Top||14-28||Loss||-101||9 h 28 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Raiders/Chargers MNF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
I think the game itself is a coin flip, and there's just no value with the spread at Chargers -3. Good news is I do think we are getting a pretty good price here on the total. I see both offenses being able to move the ball at will in this one and just don't think 51.5 is near enough.
These are two of the Top 3 passing offenses in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Raiders lead the league at 379.5 ypg. The next best is Brady and the Bucs at 327.5 ypg. The Chargers are 3rd at 307.3 ypg.
I know we are just 3 games into the season, but there's no reason to doubt the big offensive numbers by Carr and the Raiders. It's not like they have paid cupcakes. They have played one of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers (on the road) and two above average units in the Ravens and Dolphins.
Carr threw for 382 yards on 28 of 37 passing against Pittsburgh. In the Steelers 3 other games they have held Josh Allen to 270 yards, Joe Burrow to 172 and Aaron Rodgers to 248.
While it's a little different story for Herbert and the Chargers, who have faced 3 of the worst defenses in the Football Team, Cowboys and Chiefs, they pass the eye test for me. Herbert is a top tier QB in this league.
I also think they are facing another bad defense in the Raiders. Las Vegas is giving up just 24.0 ppg, but it's come against teams who on the season only average 19.5 ppg. I think them giving up 28 points at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB says a lot. They also gave up 330 yards to that awful Steelers offense. Herbert is by far the best QB they have faced in terms of passing and it's not really close.
I think you can't ignore last year's games between these two teams. Both games finished with a combined score of 57 points. OVER is 6-2 in the Raiders last 8 on the road and 8-1 in their last 9 as a dog. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-02-21||Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech OVER 57.5||52-21||Win||100||61 h 16 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 57.5)
I love the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's ACC cross division matchup between Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. I'm shocked this number isn't in the 60s. Pitt just isn't a good offensive team, they are one of the best offensive teams in the country.
The Panthers come into this game averaging 52.5 ppg, 548 ypg and 7.1 yards/play. I know there's some inflation in the numbers with the 51 they put up on UMass and 77 they scored last week against New Hampshire, but we saw them score 41 at Tennessee and 41 against Western Michigan.
Pitt has one of the best quarterbacks in the country that people don't talk about in senior Kenny Pickett. He's completed 74.2% of his attempts for 1,342 yards with an outstanding 15 to 1 TD-INT ratio. He's had a field day throwing to freshman wide out Jordan Addison, who has 23 catches for 407 yards and 8 TDs in 4 games.
Georgia Tech's defense looked great in their near upset at Clemson and were able to hold Sam Howell and the Tar Heels to just 22 last week. However, I'm still not buying into this Yellow Jackets defense. I think UNC beat themselves more than Georgia Tech's defense played great.
Let's also not ignore the fact that the Yellow Jackets offense was able to put up 45 points on the Tar Heels. In the two games where Pitt has played a halfway decent offense, they gave up 34 to Tennessee and 44 to Western Michigan.
I think both offenses have a really good shot here to put up 30 points and I wouldn't be shocked if one or both hit 40. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|09-30-21||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 46||21-24||Loss||-106||21 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Jags/Bengals TNF Situational BEST BET (Over 46)
I've made quite a bit of money with these Thursday Night Football over plays. These numbers are posted more on what the total should be if both teams were playing on Sunday with a full 6 days of rest between games. Teams just don't play as well defensively when there's only 3 days to not only prepare but to recover physically. Something I believe is much harder for a defensive player than an offensive player.
It's not something you can back blindly. I was all over it in Week 2 when that total for Washington/New York jumped from 43 down to 40.5. I didn't take it last week because of the QB situation for the Texans (100% would have been on it if Tyrod Taylor had played).
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 46, especially with this spread where I don't want to take the Jags and at the same time don't feel confident laying 7.5 with the Bengals.
We know Cincinnati likes to throw the football with their young stud QB in Joe Burrow. He's completed 71% of his attempts for 640 yards and 7 TDs in his first 3 games. He should have a field day here against a Jags secondary that is giving up 302 ypg, 9.0 yards/attempt and 74.3% completion rate. Keep in mind that's against Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold.
The other big positive here for Burrow is this Jags pass rush. It's no secret the Bengals offensive line is weak. Jacksonville has just 4 sacks in 3 games, only the Bucs have fewer with 3.
On the flip side of this, I think we see Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense contribue a decent amount in this game. Not only is a plus spot facing a Bengals defense on just 3 days rest, but you have to wonder how long Cincinnati will be locked in if this gets out of control. They just played a huge division game at Pittsburgh and got Aaron Rodgers and company on deck in Week 5.
Let's also not forget this Bengals defense gave up 20 points to the Bears and Fields played a decent amount in that game. Give me the OVER 46!
|09-27-21||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5||Top||21-41||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Eagles/Cowboys MNF Vegas INSIDER (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 51.5 in Monday Night Football. Big NFC East matchup with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. The OVER has been cashing left and right in these prime time games, outside of the Panthers/Texans game this past Thursday (HOU had backup rookie QB and CAR lost McCaffrey early).
I just don't think the number here is enough for this Cowboys team. Dallas without question has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and I just don't think there's a defense out there that can keep them in check. I know they only had 20 points in their win at the Chargers in Week 2, but that was more of them just playing keep away from Herbert and that Chargers offense.
I don't think they are going to play conservative here at home against the Eagles. Philly's defense has looked pretty good in their two games, but they have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Jimmy G and the 49ers. The strength of this defense has been their d-line.
Not only does Dallas have better weapons in the passing game, they got an o-line that can more than hold their own. If Dak gets time, he will expose this Eagles secondary.
On the flip side, I still don't have much faith in this Cowboys defense. Not only are they missing one of their best players in Demarcus Lawrence, they got all kinds of guys out for this game, especially on the d-line. Their depth is really going to be tested in this game.
I look for Jalen Hurts to step up and go toe-to-toe with Prescott. I think they number in this game should be pushing 55. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|09-26-21||Ravens v. Lions OVER 49.5||Top||19-17||Loss||-110||73 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5)
I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday.
I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half.
The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5!
|09-25-21||UMass v. Coastal Carolina OVER 65.5||3-53||Loss||-110||60 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 65.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 65.5 between Coastal Carolina and UMass, as I think this game easily gets into the 70's. You might be asking how that happens when you got a team like UMass that is averaging just 21.0 ppg. It's more about how bad the Minutemen are on the defensive side of the ball.
UMass gave up 51 in their opener at Pitt, allowed 45 at home to BC and 42 at home to E Michigan. They are giving up 220 yards/game and 5.2 yards/carry vs the run. They are also giving up 306 ypg and a 74% completion rate vs the pass.
Coastal Carolina averages 43.0 ppg, 230 yards/game and 6 yards/carry, while throwing for 275 yards/game and completing 78% of their pass attempts. The Chanticleers would have to play their worst possible game to not hit 40 points. I think they get to at least 50.
UMass might not do a lot to help us early, but they will have plenty of opportunities to score in the 2nd half when Coastal Carolina calls off the dogs. I see this somewhere along the lines of 49 to 24. Give me the OVER 65.5!
|09-23-21||Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5||Top||30-31||Loss||-110||34 h 1 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5)
I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers).
I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense.
Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL.
It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg.
I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5!
|09-22-21||Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 9||Top||1-7||Loss||-101||5 h 60 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL EAST Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 9)
I think we easily see double-digit runs on the board in today's early matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays. This is just not a great pitching matchup. Toronto is going with an Opener in reliever Julian Merryweather, while Tampa Bay sends out Luis Patino.
Merryweather might only go 1 inning here, as he just threw in relief on Monday and was also in action last Friday. You never know what you are going to get on a bullpen day. With that said, I'll take my chances the Rays find a way to put up 4+ runs in this one.
Toronto should also score 4+ and I think we could more than that. Blue Jays have crushed right handed pitching and Patino comes in with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a mere 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 14 starts overall. Give me the OVER 9!
|09-20-21||Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5||Top||17-35||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5)
I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry.
They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers.
This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1.
Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles.
Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||35-0||Loss||-110||94 h 59 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5)
I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year.
Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5.
One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half. After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards.
As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37.
I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-19-21||Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47||26-17||Loss||-105||72 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47)
I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills.
Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters.
I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50.
OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47!
|09-18-21||Boston College v. Temple OVER 56.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-110||68 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5)
I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards.
There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack.
Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week.
It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner.
I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5||Top||29-30||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.
Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos.
Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks.
What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover.
I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that.
I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points.
Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game.
As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year.
All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5!
|09-15-21||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||Top||3-6||Push||0||5 h 6 m||Show|
50* (MLB) AL East Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I love the UNDER 9 in tonight's big AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. There was little to no offense in the series opener last night. Tampa Bay won the game 2-0 and the two teams combined for a mere 9 hits. Toronto had scored 8 or more with at least 11 hits on their own in each of their previous 4 games.
It just speaks to how good this Rays pitching staff is. Everything sets up for a similar low-scoring game on Wednesday. Toronto will have Cy Young contender Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray has a 2.69 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 28 starts with 220 K's in 170 1/3 innings. He's also got a great 1.95 ERA in 9 day starts this season.
Michael Wacha will get the nod for Tampa Bay. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's really been throwing it well of late. Wacha has a 2.35 ERA and 0.718 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's just got to give us 5-6 and the Rays pen will do the rest. Give me the UNDER 9!
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||33 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5)
I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s.
Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength.
I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense.
Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run.
The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-12-21||Jets v. Panthers OVER 44||14-19||Loss||-103||86 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I really feel like the books aren't close with the total here. It's the 3rd lowest total on Sunday right now, ahead of only the Dolphins/Pats (43.5) and Broncos/Giants (41.5). Without a doubt the biggest factor here is the Jets defense.
Last year New York gave up 28.6 ppg. They were 28th against the pass, T-20th in sacks, T-23 in interceptions and 24th in total defense. Two of the Jets biggest pickups to help them improve with defensive end Carl Lawson and middle linebacker Jarrad Davis. Lawson has been lost for the year and Davis is on IR.
I just think there's little doubt this Jets defense will be ranking near the bottom of the league in all those categories again in 2021.
I do think one thing that's holding this total back, is people aren't quite ready to trust Sam Darnold in Carolina. Was Darnold very good with the Jets? No. However, not many young QBs would be in that situation. He had no talent around him and horrible coaching.
He's now got one of the rising stars at head coach in Matt Rhule and even more importantly a really good offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. I think Brady's scheme is legit and it didn't look like the old Darnold in training camp. I mean how big is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the best skill player Darnold played with at New York? I really think this offense is going to be pushing 30 ppg this year.
Last thing for me here is I also think people are sleeping on this Jets offense. New York hired a defensive minded guy in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be their new head coach. What people overlook is he brought along 49ers offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to run the ultra-successful offense that was installed in SF by Kyle Shanahan.
Not only are the Jets going to be better coached on offense, I think they got something in rookie BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. The spotlight doesn't seem to big for this kid. He's really been impressive to this point. He might not be an upgrade in terms of talent over Darnold, at least not now, but the quarterback play in NY is going to be light years better than it was last year.
Last year their top rusher was Frank Gore and leading wide out was Jamison Crowder. I think Tevin Coleman is an upgrade over Gore and Corey Davis has looked like a different guy since coming over from Tennessee. I think they are going to score a lot more (dead last in scoring last year at 15.2 ppg). Give me the OVER 44!
|09-11-21||Toledo v. Notre Dame OVER 55.5||29-32||Win||100||64 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I was really surprised this total was as low as it was. I was glued to that FSU/Notre Dame game last Sunday. I cashed my ticket on FSU and the points, but the one thing that really stuck with me, was the talent Notre Dame has at the skill position. I knew Michael Mayer was going to be a weapon, but Kevin Austin and Kyren Williams are big time playmakers.
They made former Wisconsin QB Jack Coan look like a serious Heisman threat, as he completed 26 of 35 for 366 yards and had 4 TD passes. I wonder if people have a hard time not referring back to the Coan they saw at Wisconsin. All I know, I liked what I saw out of him in Week 1.
I think when you have doubt about a team's QB, you aren't as quick to back them. I think it possibly has Notre Dame a bit undervalued right now. I would definitely lean laying the points with them. However, I think the much safer bet is on the OVER 55.5.
If the Irish are as dynamic as what I'm expecting, there's a chance they could put up 50. Keep in mind, they had 38 points and a 18-point lead going into the 4th quarter last week. They were outscored 18-0 in the 4th and needed OT. They are not taking their foot off the gas.
I just don't know that Toledo has the kind of talent you need to slow down an offense like this. The MAC is also now the bottom of the barrel in conference hierarchy, having been passed by both the Sun Belt and C-USA. Last 3 times the Rockets have faced a Power 5 team they have given up 38, 49 and 52 points respectively.
As for Toledo's offense, I think they are to help us out and put up some points to really push this past the mark. As much as I was impressed with the talent on ND's offense, I'm really concerned about their defense. They gave up 38 points and 442 yards to a FSU team coming off a 3-win season. Who knows what those numbers would look like if Mike Norvell would have just started McKenzie Milton at QB.
Toledo has 10 starters back from an offense that put up 35.0 ppg and 494 ypg last year. Only once in the last 7 years have they not averaged 35 or more. I mention they give up a lot vs Power 5 teams, but they scored 24, 24 and 30 in those games. If they give us 24, this should be over by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51||Top||29-31||Win||100||82 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)
I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51.
It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head.
Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games.
The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together.
It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved.
It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football.
They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg.
Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51!
|09-08-21||Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This is a huge series for both teams. LA is trying to overtake SF in the NL West and St Louis is just 3.5-games back of the Padres for a Wild Card berth.
Some might be hesitant to take the UNDER with how good the Dodgers are offensively and LA not having one of their top guys on the mound. That's where we find the value with this play, as I don't see either being a problem.
The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is having a remarkable season at the age of 40 (turned 40 on Aug. 30th). He's 14-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 27 starts. It's not just his age that makes this improbable, he hasn't had a season with an ERA under 3 since 2015. He's certainly not showing any fatigue down the stretch, as he's got a 0.42 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
The Dodgers will have Mitch White on the mound. He's made 3 starts and has a pretty poor 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. The key here is that this is a plus matchup for him against a Cardinals offense that fails to produce more times than not. St Louis has scored a mere 3 runs in the first 2 games of this series and have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 9. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|09-04-21||San Jose State v. USC UNDER 60||Top||7-30||Win||100||51 h 55 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60)
I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case.
I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game.
You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.
If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker.
For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60!
|09-04-21||UL-Lafayette v. Texas UNDER 58.5||18-38||Win||100||51 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 58.5)
I like the UNDER 58.5 in Saturday's matchup between Texas and Louisiana. I just think there's enough question marks with these two offenses to have a total pushing 60.
Let's start with the Longhorns. Texas has to replace one of their better QBs in the history of this program in Sam Ehlinger. He was the heart and soul of that offense last year and now it's on the shoulders of freshman Huson Card.
Let's also not forget the Longhorns are learning a whole new offense under new head coach (also calls the plays) Steve Sarkisian. He was really good at Alabama, but a lot of that was simply talent.
You might be asking what questions I got for a Ragin' Cajuns offense that brings back 10 starters from a team that put up 33.6 ppg and 422 ypg in 2020. It's easily the loss of their top two running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. These two combined to rush for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs. That was in just 11 games. I just don't trust quarterback Levi Lewis to carry the load.
The other big thing is these are two teams that figure to be pretty good defensively. Lafayette only gave up 22 ppg and 355 ypg last year and we really saw how that talent stacks up when they went on the road and held Iowa State to just 14 points and 303 yards in a shocking 31-14 upset of the Cyclones. Give me the UNDER 58.5!
|09-03-21||Rangers v. Angels UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. I look for both teams to have a tough time pushing runs across in this one.
Not a lot explanation needed for why Texas will struggle to score with LA sending out Shohei Ohtani. The guy is 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 19 starts and is 5-0 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 10 home starts.
The value with the UNDER lies with Rangers' starter Glenn Otto, who Texas acquired in the trade that send Gallo to the Yankees. Otto was sensational in his first big league start last week against the Astros, holding Houston to just 2 hits with 7 K's over 5 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 8!
|09-03-21||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64||Top||10-17||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64)
I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points.
The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft).
I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year.
I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade.
As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64!
|09-02-21||Ohio State v. Minnesota OVER 62.5||45-31||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Ohio St/Minn Total NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5)
I will take my chances with the OVER 62.5 in Thursday's Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Ohio State. I got this one getting into the 70s, as I look for a lot of fireworks offensively from both teams.
There's plenty of skeptics out there with Buckeyes freshman quarterback CJ Stroud and his ability to keep this offense rolling without Justin Fields under center. The hype around Stroud might be a little much, but he's in the perfect situation. Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and are going to be able to run the football.
I just don't think the Gophers have the speed or talent defensively to keep Ohio State from scoring at will. Not even an underrated homefield edge will be able to help them. Minnesota is in the bottom 5 in the Big Ten on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary.
The only way the Gophers are keeping this close, is if they go score for score with the Buckeyes. I'm not so sure they will be able to score enough to cover the 14-point spread, but I feel pretty good about them scoring enough to push this over the total.
Minnesota's got 10 starters back on offense. They have an experienced signal caller in Tanner Morgan, a first team Big Ten back in Mohamed Ibrahim and one of the top offensive lines in the country. They will be up a very inexperienced Ohio State defense that has just 2 starters back on the front 7 and loses their top 5 tacklers. Keep in mind this is a defense that slipped last year, giving up over 400 ypg. It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers scored 30+ in this game. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|09-02-21||South Florida v. NC State OVER 58.5||Top||0-45||Loss||-110||27 h 20 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5)
I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one.
NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line.
That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts.
The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times.
As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5!
|09-01-21||Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8||Top||3-2||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL East PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. I just think we are getting a great number with 8 given the starting pitching matchup.
Boston will send out Chris Sale, who outside of not pitching deep in games, has been really good over his first 3 starts in 2021. Sale has a 2.35 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. He's also got a 2.48 xFIP, so there's nothing fluky about those numbers.
Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Rasmussen. He too hasn't made many starts. This will be just the 6th start of the season for Rasmussen. However, he's got a strong 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 starts. He's also made 4 of those 5 starts on the road (didn't give up a run in his lone home start). Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-26-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||10-7||Loss||-115||5 h 18 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Thursday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Blue Jays and White Sox. We cashed this exact same bet last night with these two teams. I just don't see why we would expect anything but another lower scoring game.
The first 3 games have all seen 7 or fewer runs. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and 3-1 yesterday. Chicago won the second game 5-2. Tonight it's Carlos Rodon going for the White Sox and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the Blue Jays.
Rodon is 9-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He does have a very mediocre 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but was at his best in his last outing, tossing 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and racking up 11 K's.
Ryu is 12-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 24 starts. He's got an even more ugly 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, he too is coming off a great outing. Ryu just pitched 7 scoreless in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-25-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||21 h 35 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's big AL showdown between the Blue Jays and White Sox. Each of the first two games have been low scoring. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and Chicago won 5-2 on Tuesday.
All signs point to more struggles offensively with the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. White Sox will have the red-hot Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Blue Jays counter with one of their best starters in Robbie Ray.
Giolito has had his fair share of clunkers this season, but overall it's been pretty good. He's got a 3.77 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 25 starts. He's got a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP with 24 K's in 19 innings over his last 3 starts.
Ray is 9-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 24 starts. His ERA is even better at 2.64 in 12 home starts and he's got a sensational 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-24-21||Tigers v. Cardinals UNDER 8||Top||4-3||Win||100||20 h 26 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Tuesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's interleague matchup that has the Cardinals hosting the Tigers. I think the total here should be 7.5 at the most and even then I would still be looking to back the UNDER. There's no debate on it at 8.
This is a really good starting pitching matchup. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound and he's been incredible in his two starts since coming back from injury. He allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings at the Royals in his first start and then gave up just 2 runs (both solo HR) in 6 innings at home against the Brewers. He's now 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP in 5 home starts this season.
Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who is a classic case of a guy that just gets overlooked because of how bad his team is. Mize is a very respectable 6-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Definitely helps the Cardinals aren't exactly swinging the bats well, as they have scored 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-19-21||Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 38.5||Top||35-0||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
50* (NFLX) - Pats/Eagles Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 38.5)
I think we are getting some great value with the UNDER at 38.5. I know both of these teams played in relatively high-scoring games in their first preseason matchups, but the Eagles only managed 16 points against the Steelers and all of those came in the 1st half. Patriots game with Washington was just 9-7 going into the 4th quarter.
It's also worth noting that these two teams have been doing some joint practices leading up to this game. With limited playbooks in the preseason, both defenses should be at an advantage. Give me the UNDER 38.5!
|08-18-21||Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 9||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 9)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Mariners. Yesterday we played and won with Seattle on the money line. I wanted to fire back with the Mariners, but I don't want to bet against Texas' Mike Foltynewicz. I think with him on the mound, the value has shifted to the UNDER.
Foltynewicz is just 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA over 23 starts. Not great. However, he's been really good of late. He has a 3.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The most recent coming on the road against these same Mariners, where he held Seattle to just 3 runs over 7 innings.
Mariners will have Marco Gonzales on the mound. He too has been lights out down the stretch. Gonzales has a 0.83 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-03-21||Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* (MLB) NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9.5)
I love the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's NL West showdown between the Giants and Diamondbacks. We got an old school starting pitching matchup, as veterans Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner face off.
One big difference is Bumgarner isn't on the mound for San Francisco. This will be just the second time he's faced off against his former team. You know he wants to pitch well.
Bumgarner returned after the All-Star break after nearly a month away. He's been on top of his game, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 3 starts. Cueto has also made 3 starts since the All-Star break and he's got a 2.30 ERA and 0.30 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|07-27-21||A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||12 h 4 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's interleague showdown between the A's and Padres. While it's going to be extremely hot at several ballparks today, it's going to be pretty mild at Petco Park when this game goes off. Temps are expected to be in the low 70s with the wind blowing in at close to 10 mph from left field.
You also have to look at how these two offenses come into this game. The A's are averaging just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .222 as a team over their last 7. The Padres are even worse, averaging just 3.4 runs/game and hitting .193 as a team in their last 7.
It's also not a bad pitching matchup. Oakland's James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 12 starts. While San Diego's Chris Paddack has a not so great 4.77 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 18 starts, his xFIP is a mere 3.78, which suggests he's been much better the the numbers show. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-25-21||White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Sunday Night Baseball VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chance with the UNDER 7.5 in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the White Sox and Brewers. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. Chicago will turn to Lance Lynn, while Brandon Woodruff goes for Milwaukee.
Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 17 starts. He's coming into this game in great form too, as he has a 1.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 19 starts he's got a 2.14 ERA in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|07-20-21||Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5||Top||98-105||Win||100||22 h 20 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5)
As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field.
Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|07-20-21||Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||7-6||Win||100||21 h 27 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5)
I really like the OVER 8.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Cardinals. These two combined for 11 runs in the series opener Monday, as St Louis won 8-3. I think we could see even more offense in Game 2.
Chicago will send out Trevor Williams, who has a poor 5.36 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 10 starts. Williams also owns a 8.05 ERA and 2.053 WHIP in 5 road starts. St Louis counters with Johan Oviedo. He's 0-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.635 WHIP in 11 starts.
Williams has a 5.74 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Cardinals, while Oviedo has a 5.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 3 starts vs the Cubs. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|07-17-21||Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||1-10||Loss||-100||10 h 42 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL showdown between the Astros and White Sox. I just don't see these two teams getting to 9 runs with the talent these two teams will have on the mound.
Chicago will send out ace Lucas Giolito. While he hasn't been as dominant as he was in 2020, he's pitched much better than his 4.15 ERA and there's proof in that with his strong 1.173 WHIP. Giolito also owns a 3.47 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 9 home starts.
Jake Odorizzi will get the ball for Houston. He's got a 2.84 ERA and 0.790 WHIP in 5 road starts and posted a sensational 1.59 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-08-21||Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7||8-9||Loss||-110||23 h 37 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7)
This almost feels to obvious, but I just can't help myself. I'm taking the UNDER 7 in Thursday's game between the Padres and Nationals. Two of the best the MLB has to offer will be starting in this game.
Washington will have Max Scherzer going. I think we expect so much out of Scherzer, that his 2.10 ERA and 0.848 WHIP doesn't get viewed like we would with some others He's been even better than that of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego. He's 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 2.12 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 11 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7!
|07-06-21||Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Red Sox/Angels MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's showdown between the Red Sox and Angles. Two of the AL's top starters will be on the mound in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who is 9-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been lights out of late, posting a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. In just his last two outings, he's given up a mere 1 ER in 14 2/3 innings.
LA will counter with Shohei Ohtani, who is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 12 starts. Ohtani has been at his best at home this season, where he owns a sensational 1.73 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 7 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-06-21||A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5||6-9||Loss||-113||11 h 40 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's action between the Astros and A's. These two AL West rivals figure to have a hard time scoring runs with the top tier talent they are sending out to the mound.
Oakland will turn to Chris Bassitt, who is 9-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 17 starts. Bassitt is 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA in 9 road starts and has a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston will send out Framber Valdez, who is 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 7 starts. Valdez has an even better 2.00 ERA in 3 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-03-21||Padres v. Phillies UNDER 8||2-4||Win||100||21 h 52 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Saturday's game between the Phillies and the Padres. I like both starters quite a bit in this spot.
Hard to not like Yu Darvish. Guy has a 2.44 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 16 starts this season. In his last 2 starts he's given up just 2 ER in 12 innings with 18 K's to just 2 BB's. Darvish also owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Phillies.
Zach Eflin is where it gets tricky and where I think the value is. Eflin is just 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 15 starts and has an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 outings. All 3 of those were on the road. Eflin has been a different guy at home. He's got a 2.13 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|07-01-21||Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5||7-2||Win||100||3 h 3 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9.5)
I'm going to take the UNDER 9.5 between the Blue Jays and Mariners. I know these two just combined for 16 runs yesterday and Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball, but 9.5 is just too high a number for the talent these two teams are sending to the mound.
Blue Jays will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a respectable 3.41 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 15 starts. Seattle will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.23 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 15 starts overall, 2.70 ERA in 8 road starts and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|06-27-21||Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5||2-8||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
I'm expecting a ton of offense in Sunday's game between the Indians and Twins, as I got these two teams easily surpassing the total of 9.5. Minnesota's offense is in a groove right now. Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games, including 3 of their last 4.
They will be up against Sam Hentges, who has an ugly 6.27 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in 5 starts. He did throw 5 scoreless innings in his last start, but that was against a bad Pirates offense, so don't read into that. I don't see him sticking around long in this one.
J.A. Happ will start for Minnesota. He hasn't been much better with a 6.09 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 13 starts. It's not been getting any better for Happ, who has a 7.90 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9.5!
|06-25-21||Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226||Top||91-125||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226)
I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much.
That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday.
We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226!
|06-25-21||Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 8.5)
I know it's hard to take the OVER with how the Cardinals are struggling to score runs right now, but 8.5 is just too low a number for today's game. With the heat index approaching 100-degrees and the wind blowing out to left, the ball should be flying out of the park today. Not to mention that kind of heat can really wear down a pitcher.
You also got to think that Pittsburgh's William Crowe is the guy to be facing for St Louis to snap out of their offensive funk. Crowe has made 9 starts for the Pirates and is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. If we can just get a little from the Cardinals in this one, we should easily get to 9 runs in this game. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|06-18-21||White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8||1-2||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's matchup between the Astros and White Sox. I just think 8 is a pretty big number with the talent these two teams are sending out on the mound.
Chicago will have Carlos Rodon on the mound and he's been spectacular in 2021. Rodon is 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 11 starts. It hasn't mattered where he's pitched, as he's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is also having a great year. Garcia has a 2.98 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been even better at home with a 1.91 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|06-17-21||Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5||Top||5-6||Loss||-104||11 h 52 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I absolutely love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's late night action that has the Rays visiting the Mariners. There's a lot to like with both starters going in this one.
Tampa Bay's Rich Hill has a strong 3.37 ERA in 13 stats, but has been even better than that of late with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's also worth pointing out that in Hill's last 4 road starts he's given up a whopping 1 run on 9 hits in 22 innings of work.
Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle and he's quietly having a strong season. Dunn has a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts. He's also been lights out at home with a 2.95 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 4 home starts. Not only is Dunn throwing well, but TB's hitters may be a bit off here with the travel from Chicago all the way out west to Seattle. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-16-21||Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8||2-1||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's NL Central clash between the Brewers and Reds. These two offenses couldn't get anything going yesterday, as they headed to extra innings without a run on the board. Cincinnati wound up winning 2-1 in 10 innings with the two teams combing for just 6 hits.
When you look at the starting pitching matchup for today's game, it's hard to see either offense getting back on track. The Reds' Tyler Mahle has been a beast when he's not having to start at home at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Mahle has a 1.44 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 8 road starts. Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who has been great from the get go. Peralta has a 2.32 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 starts with a 1.45 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|06-15-21||Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5||3-6||Loss||-109||10 h 2 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rangers and Astros. I just feel like it's asking a lot for these two teams to put up 9 runs in a game that will feature two of the AL's better starters.
Texas will give the rock to Kyle Gibson, who has a sensational 2.14 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 12 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down. In fact, he's got an even better 1.56 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Houston will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. He's got a similarly strong 2.96 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 9 starts. He too is trending right with a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts.
These two also have a great track record against the opponent. Gibson has a 2.49 ERA in 11 career starts against the Astros, having allowed just 5 runs (35 innings) in his last 5 starts vs Houston. McCullers has a mere 3.88 ERA in 11 starts vs Texas, but has allowed just 3 runs in his last 4 outings vs them. He's also now allowed more than 3 ER in 10 of the 11 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-14-21||76ers v. Hawks OVER 225.5||100-103||Loss||-100||10 h 17 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks VEGAS INSIDER (Over 225.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 225.5 in Game 4 between the 76ers and Hawks. These two flew past the total (224.5) in Game 3, combing for 338 points in Philly's 127-111 win. I just think we are going to see a similar type of game that should easily get to the 230s.
The size advantage the 76ers have is really making things easy for them offensively. Philadelphia has shot 55%, 53% and 58% from the field in the 3 games. There's only been one playoff game this year where they shot worse than 50%. That's not going to change in this series with all the easy looks they are getting inside.
Atlanta's only choice is to outscore them and they definitely got the fire-power to do that on their home floor. Hawks have shot 51%, 46% and 48% in the series, so it's not like they aren't getting good looks. They had 111 points in Game 3, despite shooting just 6 of 23 (26%) from behind the 3-point line. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|06-13-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5||2-6||Loss||-110||4 h 7 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
We have cashed the OVER in each of the first two games in this series between the Reds and Rockies. The two combined for 16 runs in the series opener on Friday and for 13 in yesterday's matchup. With another hot day at Great American Ball Park (heat index in the mid-upper 90s), I see no reason why they won't reach double-digits on Sunday.
Reds could eclipse this total on their own. Cincinnati has done the heavy lifting in this series, scoring 11 and 10 runs in the first two games. Colorado has allowed 10 or more now in 3 straight and starter Antonio Senzatela comes in with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in 4 road starts this season.
Reds are starting Tony Santillan, who will be making his first ever big league start. While Santillan has pitched well in the minors, chances are he struggles in the tough pitching conditions today. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|06-12-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9||Top||3-10||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Saturday SHARP MONEY Top Play (OVER 9)
We cashed the OVER 9 in Friday's series opener between these two teams as they combined for 16 in Cincinnati's 11-5 win. That's now two straight games Colorado has given up 11 runs and the 6th time in their last 8 games they have allowed 6 or more runs.
I know we got two decent starters going in German Marquez and Wade Miley, but it's going to be absolute brutal pitching conditions today with the heat index pushing 100 degrees and little to no wind (4 mph). Add in how the ball already flies out of Great American Ball Park, and it just doesn't seem like much for these two teams to hit double-digits. Give me the OVER 9!
|06-11-21||Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5||116-102||Loss||-110||13 h 39 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 222.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Game 3 between the Suns/Nuggets. Usually I lean towards the UNDER the deeper the series goes, but 222.5 just doesn't feel like near enough. These two teams combined for 227 in Game 1 and 221 in Game 2. That's with the Nuggets only scoring 105 and 95.
Nuggets are scoring 117.9 ppg on their home floor this season. Last time they were home was Game 5 in their first round series with Portland and they put up 147 in a game that saw 287 combined points. Both Game 1 and Game 2 in Denver got to the 230's.
Key here is that while I think the Nuggets will get a big boost offensively at home, I don't think the Nuggets defense is going to have any better luck trying to slow down this Suns offense. Phoenix really got whatever they wanted. As long as they don't go ice cold, this thing should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|06-11-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9||5-11||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Over 9)
I will take my chances with the OVER 9 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Reds visiting the Rockies. With the way the ball flies out of Great American Ball Park, especially this time of year where it's 80+ degrees with some humidity, 10 runs really isn't a lot to ask for.
You also got to like the pitching matchup for runs. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in 3 starts, giving up 19 hits and 8 walks in 13 innings of work. Reds' Tyler Mahle has a strong 3.18 ERA in 12 starts overall, but owns a 7.23 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 home outings. Give me the OVER 9!
|06-10-21||Yankees v. Twins OVER 10.5||5-7||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 10.5 in Thursday's game between the Yankees and Twins. These two combined for 12 runs in Game 1 of this series and 15 in Game 2 yesterday. I see no reason not to expect another high scoring affair tonight.
Yankees will be starting Michael King, who has given up 8 runs on 9 hits in 7 2/3 innings over 2 starts. I think it's also worth pointing out that King had a 7.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 9 appearances (4 starts) last year.
Twins will counter with J.A. Happ, who has a 5.61 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 starts with a 6.19 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Also doesn't hurt that it's going to be in the mid 90's during this game with little to no wind. The heat could lead to both starters wearing down quick, as well as help the ball carry a little further. Give me the OVER 10.5!
|06-09-21||Royals v. Angels OVER 9||1-6||Loss||-105||12 h 20 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Wednesday's late night action between the Angels/Royals. Both teams could be in store for a big day offensively in this one. KC is sending out Brad Keller, who has a 5.50 ERA and 1.707 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also facing a LA lineup that has scored 33 runs in their last 4 games.
Angels' will counter with Griffin Canning, who probably should be demoted. Canning has a 5.71 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 9 starts. He's only had one start all season where he's completed 6 innings. He's also got an 8.74 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9!
|06-09-21||Yankees v. Twins OVER 8.5||Top||9-6||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 8.5)
I love the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Twins/Yankees. Minnesota will have Randy Dobak on the mound. After not giving up a run in 6 innings in his first start at Cleveland, Dobak has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits and 3 walks in his last 2 starts.
Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound. While Cole is a big nam,e and has been pretty good so far in 2021, he just gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. I think his struggles could be part of him stopping using whatever illegal substance he was using. He's also facing a hot Twins lineup that has racked up 10+ hits in 4 of their last 5 games. Play the OVER 8.5!
|06-07-21||Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 220.5||Top||105-122||Loss||-101||12 h 25 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5)
I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two.
So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98). Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton.
I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5!
|06-06-21||Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 212||111-126||Loss||-113||22 h 24 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers Game 7 NO-BRAINER (UNDER 212)
I'm going to take the UNDER 212 in Game 7 between the Mavs and Clippers. UNDERs are always a strong way to look in any Game 7. There's a lot more than just winner takes all that keeps these games lower scoring.
You have to keep in mind these teams have played each other 6 times in a little over a week now. Both teams know what kind of adjustments the other team is going to make and they know how to defend them. You also got tired legs, which can lead to poor shooting. Lastly, the pressure of a Game 7.
These two haven't combined for more than 205 in each of the last 3 games in the series. I don't see them breaking that trend in this one. Give me the UNDER 212!
|06-03-21||Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5||Top||113-100||Loss||-106||13 h 12 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5)
I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high.
At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|05-26-21||Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 219||129-141||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 219)
I don't play a ton of OVERs in the NBA playoffs, but the OVER 219 in Wednesday's Jazz/Grizzlies game is one I just can't help myself with. These two combined for 221 in Game 1 and that was with neither team shooting great.
The Jazz were especially off their game, shooting 42.0% from the field and 25.5% from behind the 3-point line. Utah in the regular-season shot 47% from the field and 38.8% from behind the 3-point line at home, where they averaged 117.2 ppg.
I think the Jazz were sleep walking a bit after the week layoff and it definitely didn't help matters that star player Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch. He's expected to play in Game 2, but either way Utah will be more mentally ready if he can't go.
I could see the Jazz eclipsing the 220 mark in this one and confident we are going to get enough from Memphis to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 219!
|05-22-21||Celtics v. Nets UNDER 229.5||93-104||Win||100||22 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Nets/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229.5)
I think the UNDER 229.5 is worthy of a play in Game 1 Saturday between the Nets and Celtics. People are just assuming Brooklyn can't be stopped with the Big 3 of Durant, Irving and Harden all healthy. They also see Boston just score 118 in their win over Washington on Tuesday.
I'm not about to say the Nets won't lethal on offense, but let's not forget they didn't a lot of time together in the regular-season. I also don't trust the Celtics offense without Jaylen Brown. Tatum put up 50 in that game against the Wizards and they still only had 118.
What I think people are sleeping on is the Nets defense. They got better and better on that side of the ball as the season went on. I also think all 3 of the Big 3 have the ability to take their defense to a different level. They just don't need to play hard on that side of the ball in the regular-season. I think they make it really tough on Tatum and the Boston offense. I just don't think they get to 230. Give me the UNDER 229.5!
|05-21-21||Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221||Top||117-112||Loss||-100||12 h 60 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers.
The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100.
Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221!
|05-21-21||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11||1-7||Loss||-101||11 h 22 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 11 in Friday's series opener between NL West rivals Colorado and Arizona. The ball figures to be flying out of Coors Field tonight. Not only will temps by in the high 70s, but the wind will be blowing out to right center at close to 15 mph.
We also got a subpar pitching matchup with Arizona sending out Seth Frankoff and the Rockies turning to German Marquez. Not to mention both offenses will be happy to see Coors Field. Dbacks just played a 4-game series at the Dodgers and the Rockies played 3 in a row at San Diego. Both of those parks heavily favor pitching. Play the OVER 11!
|05-21-21||White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||1-2||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 8.5)
I like the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored in this one. The ball doesn't figure to be carrying all that great at Yankee Stadium tonight and we got two quality starters going.
Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who I think is poised for a big bounce back performance after not having near his best stuff in his last start against the Royals. Rodon gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 2/3 innings, yet he still comes into this game with a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in 6 starts.
New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery. While Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA in 8 starts, he has a very strong 1.152 WHIP in those 8 outings. He's also got a strong 3.98 FIP and 3.85 xFIP. His numbers have been more true at home where he has a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 3 starts. Play the UNDER 8.5!
|05-20-21||Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8||6-0||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I like the UNDER 8 in Thursday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. I think this total should be 7.5 if not 7. Miami's Sandy Alcantara had a really bad start last time out, but that was on the road against the Dodgers. In his previous 4 starts he hadn't allowed more than 2 runs, throwing 6 or more innings in 3 of those 4 outings. Alcantara also owns a strong 2.82 ERA in 6 career starts against the Phillies.
Vincent Velasquez will get the start for Philadelphia. He's off to a great start to the 2021 season. Velasquez owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 5 starts with a 1.59 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 outings. I just don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-19-21||Brewers v. Royals UNDER 7.5||4-6||Loss||-100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I like the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's Royals/Brewers interleague showdown. KC won the opener 2-0 in an extremely low scoring affair on Tuesday. UNDER is now 6-1 in Royals last 7. Brewers managed just 3 hits in the loss yesterday, second time in their last 3 games they have held to a mere 3 hits. Brewers have also now scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 11 games.
Milwaukee's struggles on offense are why I'm not worrying too much about the poor numbers for Royals starter Brad Keller. Note that while Keller has a 6.75 ERA in 8 starts, he's coming off two strong outings, as he's allowed just 5 runs with 13 K's in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound, who has been one of the NL's best early on. Burnes has a 1.57 ERA and 0.641 WHIP in 6 starts. Play the UNDER 7.5!
|05-18-21||Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 233||100-118||Win||100||22 h 16 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Wizards/Celtics Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 233)
I will gladly take the UNDER 233 in Tuesday's Play-In game between the Wizards and Celtics. I just think the total here is way too high for a game of this magnitude. The intensity for a winner take all game is massive and people forget just how much better the defenses get in the postseason.
We saw that in the Wizards matchup with Charlotte in the regular-season finale, where they winner got to the No. 8 seed. That game had a total of 231 and finished with 225. Both these teams are better defensively than what they showed in the regular-season. Play the UNDER 233!
|05-18-21||Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||2-5||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 7.5)
I like the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Pirates and Cardinals. Really underrated starting pitching matchup here with St Louis' John Gant facing off against Pittsburgh's J.T. Brubaker.
Gant has a 1.84 ERA in 7 starts with the UNDER cashing in 6 of those. Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA in 7 starts with 5 of those staying UNDER the mark. I just don't see these two getting to 8 runs tonight. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-14-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8||6-3||Loss||-107||10 h 5 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take a shot here with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between the Braves and Brewers. I know this doesn't look like a top tier pitching matchup, but there's reason to be optimistic that both starters perform well here.
Drew Smyly gets the ball for Atlanta. He's got an ugly 6.12 ERA and 1.480 WHIP, but he's coming off by far his best start of the season. Smyly didn't give up a ER in 6 innings at the Nationals. He really took advantage of a bad Washington offense. He gets a similarly poor offense in this one.
Milwaukee is bottom 10 in the league in runs scored They are averaging 2.0 runs/game and hitting .180 as a team in their last 7. They also are scoring just 2.8 runs/game this season vs left-handed starters.
Brewers will send out Adrian Houser, who has a respectable 3.44 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 7 starts. He too is off a strong outing, as he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits with 10 Ks in 6 innings at Miami. That's two straight starts he's went 6 innings and allowed only 2 ER. He also could be catching a huge break here with Ronald Acuna Jr questionable after leaving yesterday's game with an ankle injury. GIve me the UNDER 8!
|05-13-21||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||Top||4-2||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 7.5)
I love the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's late night action on the west coast that has Indians at the Mariners. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and Seattle has scored 4 or fewer in 3 straight.
You also got a great starting pitching matchup with Indians' Zach Plesac against Mariners' top prospect Logan Gilbert. Plesac has been outstanding of late with a 1.27 ERA and 0.7500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Gilbert is a kid that has elite level stuff and I really like him to pitch well against this Indians lineup. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-12-21||Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 7.5||4-1||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 7.5)
I just think there's a ton of value with the OVER at 7.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Blue Jays. OVER is 12-5 in Atlanta home games this season with an average combined score of 10.7 runs/game. Toronto is averaging 5.9 runs/game over their last 7 and the Braves are scoring 5.1 runs/game at home and 5.6 runs/game in night games this season.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 3.31 ERA in 6 starts, but a 4.15 ERA on the road and a 5.27 ERA in his last 3 outings. Max Fried has a 8.44 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in 4 starts. I could see both teams going over this number. Give me the OVER 7.5!
|05-11-21||Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||Top||3-11||Loss||-114||12 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I love the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's NL showdown between Miami and Arizona. Two of the hottest starters in the game will be facing off in this one. Marlins' Pablo Lopez has a 2.04 ERA in 7 starts and a 0.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks' Madison Bumgarner had a bit of a rough start to 2021, but has a 1.00 ERA and 0.389 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
These two starters squared off against each other in Miami last week (5/6) and the game finished with just 4 runs, as the two starters combined to pitch 11 innings, giving up just 1 ER on 5 hits. UNDER is also a strong 13-3 in Marlins last 16 road games after 2 straight games scoring 2 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-11-21||A's v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||3-2||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I really like the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's AL matchup between Boston and Oakland. That's because I love the starting pitching matchup with the Red Sox sending out Nathan Eovaldi and the A's countering with Chris Bassitt.
Eovaldi has a not so great 4.39 ERA with a solid 1.205 WHIP in 7 starts, but has really been unlucky with a .342 BABIP. That shows in his amazing 2.05 FIP and strong 3.26 xFIP. Bassitt has a 3.70 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 7 starts with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 outings.
I know the wind is going to be blowing out slightly to right, but it's as big a concern with these two guys on the mound. Eovaldi has not allowed a HR this season and Bassitt has allowed just 3. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|05-09-21||Wolves v. Magic OVER 228.5||128-96||Loss||-112||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Over 228.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's game between the Magic and Timberwolves. A lot of people will just stay clear of this game as both of these teams are out of the playoff picture.
That's where I feel the value lies. There's zero incentive for either of these teams to play defense. That's definitely how Minnesota likes it, as the Timberwolves are scoring 124.6 ppg and giving up 124.2 ppg in their last 5. Magic should be able to keep pace and I could see this thing flying past the total and into the 240s. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|05-09-21||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 7.5||9-3||Loss||-114||5 h 46 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 7.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's AL Central showdown between the Royals and White Sox. There just doesn't figure to be a lot of scoring opportunities in this game.
Chicago will have ace Lucas Giolito on the mound. He's not been as dominant as expected early on, but has definitely pitched better than his numbers. The only thing that's killing him is the long ball. Something he doesn't figure to have to worry about much today with the wind blowing in from left field at close to 15 mph and temps expected to be in the mid 40's.
Those conditions will also make life easier on KC starter Mike Minor. While Minor's numbers are also not great so far, he's owned Chicago with a 3.18 ERA in 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-09-21||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 221.5||130-124||Loss||-110||4 h 2 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Early Bird VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 221.5)
I think there's some decent value with the UNDER 221.5 in Sunday's early matchup between the Celtics and Heat. This is the first of two straight games these two teams will play, as they will square off in Miami again on Tuesday.
These two games could very well decide which of these two teams finish as the No. 6 seed and get next week off and which finishes No. 7 and is forced to earn a spot in the postseason in the play-in tournament.
I just think with how much these games mean, it's going to have a playoff-like feel to it. Look for both teams to turn up the defensive intensity and for this to stay well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|05-06-21||Wizards v. Raptors OVER 235||131-129||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 235)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 235 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the Raptors and Wizards. OVER has cashed in 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall for Washington. Easy to see why when you look at how good this team is playing offensively and how much they struggle defensively. Washington has shot at least 47% from the field in 13 of their last 14, including each of the last 8 games. They have allowed 125, 141 and 135 in their last 3 games.
Raptors are a team that relies more on their offense to win games than their defense. Toronto has allowed each of their last 5 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. There's just going to be no defense played in this game. Give me the OVER 235!
|05-04-21||Mavs v. Heat UNDER 215.5||Top||127-113||Loss||-109||11 h 49 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5)
I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much.
Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort.
Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5!
|05-04-21||White Sox v. Reds OVER 9||9-0||Push||0||10 h 53 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the White Sox and Reds. The OVER is a pretty easy play when Cincinnati is at home. OVER is 12-3 in Reds' home games this season with an average combined score of 13.4 runs/game.
I know the two starters going, Dylan Cease and Jeff Hoffman have been decent early on, but both of these teams are scoring a lot of runs when these two are on the mound. OVER has cashed in 4 of Cease's 5 starts and is a perfect 5-0 in Hoffman's 5 starts. Neither of these teams have a good bullpen, so if either starter struggles we could see one of these teams eclipse the mark on their own. Give me the OVER 9!
|04-30-21||Jazz v. Suns UNDER 219||Top||100-121||Loss||-112||12 h 58 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219)
I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot.
I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219!
|04-30-21||Royals v. Twins UNDER 8||1-9||Loss||-105||10 h 52 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Under 8)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between AL Central rivals Kansas City and Minnesota. Two really good starters will be on the mound for this one. Kansas City will send out Brady Singer and the Twins counter with Michael Pineda.
Singer has a 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 4 starts. He's really been exceptional since giving up 5 runs in 3 1/3 in his first outing of the season. In his 3 starts since, he's posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP with 20 K's in 18 innings of work.
Pineda has been equally impressive early on. He's got a 2.42 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 4 starts. He too has had just one bad outing this year. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-29-21||A's v. Rays UNDER 8||3-2||Win||100||3 h 18 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I will take the UNDER 8 in Thursday's early MLB matchup that has the A's and Rays finishing up their 4-game series in Tampa. There's been little to no offense in the first 3 games of this series. In fact, the two teams have combined to score a mere 12 runs in the series.
I just don't think the total should be 8 with the way these two are swinging the bat. Big reason why there's value here is the Rays are sending out a relatively unknown starter in Shane McClanahan. His only MLB action came in the playoffs last year. While he didn't pitch great in the postseason, this is not only one of Tampa Bay's best prospects, it's one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He's got big time swing and miss stuff.
On the flip side, the A's will be sending out Chris Bassitt, who has a strong 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bassitt has allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 K's in each of his last two starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-28-21||Clippers v. Suns UNDER 222.5||101-109||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 222.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 222.5 in tonight's late game between the Suns and Clippers. This game could very well decide home court if these two were to meet in the second round, as Phoenix is in the No. 2 spot, 1-game up on the Clippers.
I think because of what is at stake, we get a strong effort defensively from two teams that can really excel on that side of the ball. Clippers are also going to be without one of their top scorers in Leonard and the Suns are in a big flat spot off that grueling 5-game road trip that had them playing the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics, Nets and Knicks. Give me the UNDER 222.5!