|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU UNDER 68.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62.
I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides.
Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5!
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5||Top||26-20||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|01-04-20||Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5||Top||20-13||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|01-01-20||Michigan v. Alabama OVER 58||16-35||Loss||-109||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF CITRUS BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58 in the Citrus Bowl matchup between Alabama and Michigan. I just don't think either defense is going to be able to slow down the opposing offense in this one. Wolverines defense is built more to stop a power running game than it is the explosive passing game of the Crimson Tide and this is as bad an Alabama defense we have seen in quite some time. Crimson Tide are just decimated with injuries and players not playing on defense and this Michigan offense really improved over the course of the season. Both of these teams also like to play fast and I just think we are going to see a shootout on New Year's Day. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-29-19||Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 45.5||21-31||Win||100||46 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 45.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's game between Kansas City and Los Angeles. Chiefs offense hasn't went off in a while, but have been really close in a number of recent games. I think they are primed for a big showing against a deflated Chargers team that just wants this season to be over with. As for LA's offense, you know Rivers is going to go down swinging and while he did throw 4 picks in an earlier meeting with KC, he also had 353 passing yards. A lot has been made about the Chiefs defense. It's definitely improved, but they have also played their last 4 games against the Bears, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders, who are all struggling on offense. I think we see this thing get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5!
|12-28-19||Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 64||Top||29-23||Win||100||124 h 50 m||Show|
50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests.UNDER has cashed in 4 straight semifinal games for Clemson and is 6-2 in their last 8 bowl games when they are favored. UNDER 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 vs a team with a winning record 4-1 in their last 5 bowls. Give me the UNDER 64!
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5||39-53||Loss||-110||115 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF COTTON BOWL TOTAL DESTROYER (Under 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 60.5 in Saturday's Cotton Bowl showdown between Memphis and Penn State. I think both offenses could struggle to play up to their potential. Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne (left to be new head coach at Old Dominion). Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell (left to be new head coach at FSU). Norvell not only was the head coach but the offensive play caller. I also think both defenses are better than they get credit for. Penn State has an elite defensive front that can make the Tigers one dimensional and the Nittany Lions offense only averaged 23.9 ppg in their 7 games against a Power 5 opponent that finished .500 or better. While Memphis isn't a Power 5 team I think they are real close in terms of talent. Give me the UNDER 60.5!
|12-24-19||BYU v. Hawaii OVER 64||34-38||Win||100||28 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAF HAWAII BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 64)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 64 in the Hawaii Bowl between none other than Hawaii and BYU. These two teams actually just played last year in the middle of October in Provo. The Cougars won that game 49-23 for a combined of 72.
These two offenses are even more potent this season. BYU comes in at 439.5 ypg (365 ypg in 2018) and Hawaii is averaging 469.7 ypg (420 ypg in 2018). These are also two offenses built on their passing attacks. Rainbow Warriors are 24th in passing compared to 71st in rushing. BYU is 6th in passing compared to 89th in rushing.
OVER is 15-6 in Hawaii's last 21 non-conference games and 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog. Give me the OVER 64!
|12-22-19||Giants v. Redskins OVER 41||41-35||Win||100||4 h 29 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 41)These are two of the worst teams in the league and this is one of those games where the loser is actually the winner. Both teams are sitting at 3-11, tied for the second worst record in the NFL with the Dolphins. The team that loses would likely end up no worse than the No. 3 pick, potentially the No. 2 pick with the Dolphins favored at home against the Bengals this week. I just don’t think either team is going to be all that motivated to play any kind of defense in this game and it’s not like either of these teams are any good on that side of the ball to start with. Washington is 21st in total defense and New York are 25th. I also think both offenses are coming into this game with some momentum. Even though the Giants are likely to go to back to rookie Daniel Jones, I still think they are poised for a big game here. Jones played well in the first meeting against the Redskins and with Washington’s struggles against the run he won’t have to do it all. I’m not a Dwayne Haskins fan, but he has gotten a lot better as the season has progressed. He threw for a career high 261 yards last week against the Eagles and it’s no secret that the Giants have one of the worst secondaries in the league. I just think both teams are going to put up points and fully expect both sides to eclipse the 20-point mark and that’s really all we need to eclipse this low total. Give me the OVER 41!
|12-21-19||Liberty v. Georgia Southern OVER 57.5||23-16||Loss||-115||73 h 21 m||Show|
40* LIBERTY/GA SOUTH CURE BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 57.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's Cure Bowl that has Georgia Southern facing off against Liberty. I just think these two will eclipse 60 points without any problem. Both defenses are really bad and more importantly the weaknesses of both defenses play right into the strength of these two offenses.
Liberty is a team that likes to air it out. The Flames finished 21st in the nation with 290.5 passing yards/game. That high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Georgia Southern defense that ranked 91st against the pass, giving up 240.6 ypg. Not to mention one that gave up 298 ypg and 8.9 yards/completion against the pass on the road.
As for the Eagles, if you have watched them at all you know they are almost exclusive a run offense with that triple-option attack. Georgia Southern averaging 333.6 ypg and 260.8 ypg on the ground (8th). Liberty's defense is bad all around, but were 100th against the run, giving up 192.9 ypg. That too are much worse on the road, as they gave up 218 ypg and 5.2 ypg away from home. I think both teams score into the 30's. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|12-21-19||Texans v. Bucs OVER 50||23-20||Loss||-109||19 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL BUCS/TEXANS TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 50)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Saturday's NFL game between the Bucs and Texans. At this point it’s almost automatic to lean OVER in any game involving the Buccaneers, as it’s cashed in 11 of their 14 games this season.
There’s even more reason to like the OVER when you factor in how these two teams match up against one another.
Houston has a very balanced offensive attack. Texans rank 7th in rushing (130.9 ypg) and 11th in passing (245.0 ypg). Key here is they will be forced to throw it against this Tampa defense, as the Bucs are allowing a league-low 73.3 rushing yards/game. The good news is Deshaun Watson should have no problem exploiting a TB defense that ranks 30th against the pass (276.8 ypg).
On the flip side of this, the Bucs offense is riding the arm of Jameis Winston for better or worse. It’s resulted in Tampa Bay ranking 28th in rushing (91.4) and 1st in passing (308.8 ypg). While interceptions continue to haunt Winston, he’s coming in having thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last two games. He should stay hot, as the Texans are 28th against the pass (266.1 ypg) and have had a lot more trouble defending the pass since J.J. Watt went down. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-20-19||Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5||51-41||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
40* UTAH ST/KENT ST FRISCO BOWL MASSACRE (Over 67.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 67.5 in Friday's Frisco Bowl that has Utah State taking on Kent State. Both these teams are capable of scoring in bunches. Utah State is averaging 28.2 ppg and 425 ypg and have one of the best QB's in the country in Jordan Love. Kent State is scoring 27.4 ppg and finished off the year at 35.0 ppg in their last 3.More importantly, Neither of these teams are any good defensively, especially on the road. Kent State gave up 34.6 ppg and 495 ypg away from home and Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 471 ypg on the road. Both teams gave up over 230 rushing yards/game and more than 8 yards/ pass attempt away home. Give me the OVER 67.5!
|12-16-19||Colts v. Saints OVER 46.5||Top||7-34||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them.
As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|12-15-19||Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 49||21-44||Loss||-107||118 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 49)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 49 in Sunday's game that has the Cowboys hosting the Rams. I just see way too much value here with the number, as Dallas' offense has really struggled to produce against quality defenses and this is not an easy matchup for Prescott. LA has been really good against both the run and the pass. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 106 or fewer rushing yards and have not allowed more than 202 passing yards in 4 straight.
Dallas' defense made Mitch Trubisky look like a MVP last week and I think that's definitely playing into this number. I just didn't think the Cowboys played with any heart in that game. It was almost like they were shell-shocked that Trubisky could do what he did. Goff was great at home last week against the Seahawks, but he's notoriously a much worse QB on the road. This number says shootout, but I'm calling for a defensive battle. Give me the UNDER 49!
|12-15-19||Bucs v. Lions OVER 47.5||38-17||Win||100||115 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 47.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47.5. The OVER has consistently hit in Tampa Bay games this year, going 10-3 with a strong 6-2 mark in their 8 games away from home.
A big reason for that is the Bucs high-powered passing attack, which comes in ranked 2nd in the at 298.2 ypg. One that should be on full display this Sunday even with star wide out Mike Evans not expected to play. That’s because Winston will be up against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in the league against the pass, giving up 276.5 ypg.
Not to mention the ideal playing conditions in the dome. Note that Tampa has played two games in a dome this season. Both went over the total and the average combined score was 56 points.
One reason this total isn’t 50+ is because of the Lions offense and how bad it looked last week. Not to mention they are down to 3rd string QB David Blough. However, Blough hasn’t been all that bad given his first two starts have come against two pretty good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. He had 280 yards and 2 TD’s at home against Chicago and the Bucs come into this one ranked 31st against the pass, giving up 278.8 ypg.
I could see this one being something very similar to Tampa Bay’s last game with the Colts that ended up 38-35 with both teams eclipsing the 30-point mark. Either way I think they find a way to get to at least 48. Give me the OVER 47.5.!
|12-15-19||Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46||Top||3-23||Loss||-109||115 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy.
I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more.
There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46!
|12-12-19||Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5||21-42||Win||100||50 h 29 m||Show|
40* JETS/RAVENS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 44.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 44.5 I get the defensive numbers have been decent for New York this season, but look at who they have played. Outside of their division opponents, they have played the Browns, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Bengals.
This is by far the best offensive they have faced. I know Lamar Jackson is nursing a quad injury, but he’s fully expected to play and I can’t imagine the Ravens sending him out there if they don’t feel he’s at or near 100%. I just don’t think the Jets will be able to slow this offense down and with Sam Darnold on the other side, I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore’s defense didn’t find the endzone in this one.
While Darnold could make some costly mistakes, he’s also very capable of guiding this Jets offense up and down the field. Much like New York’s defense will struggle to play well on just 3-days of rest, the same can be said for Baltimore. Not to mention this has the feel of a big flat spot for that Ravens defense, as they have really put it all on the line the last four weeks against the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills. Give me the OVER 44.5.
|12-07-19||Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 62.5||23-30||Loss||-109||114 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 62.5. My biggest reason for liking the OVER is these two combined for 65 points in the first meeting with Oklahoma only scoring 10-points in the 1st half and Baylor getting shutout in the 2nd half. I think we see both teams score early and often the second time around. Keep in mind last year’s Big 12 title game against Texas saw 66 points and 945 total yards of offense.
I will admit I’m a lot more confident with Oklahoma’s offense putting up a big number. It was like once Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley figured out what Baylor was wanting to do on defense, there was no stopping them. Keep in mind they only punted once the entire game in that first meeting.
As for the Bears not scoring in the 2nd half, they just didn’t get a chance to get anything going. Baylor fumbled on their first possession of the 2nd half and went 3 and out on their next two possessions. There was 5:25 left in the 4th quarter and the Bears had run a mere 7 plays in the 2nd half. They still averaged a healthy 5.9 yards/play in that matchup. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|12-01-19||Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47||34-7||Loss||-110||28 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 47)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47. This game has shootout written all over it and I think we are getting a great price here because of how bad the Rams offense looked in that blowout loss to the Ravens. While I do think LA's got some problems with their offense, they should have no trouble moving the ball here against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona's giving up 30.6 ppg 417 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Key here is I think Murray and the Cardinals offense can go score-for-score with the Rams. Give me the OVER 47!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns OVER 41||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.
Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.
Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.
I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.
As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-10-19||Cardinals v. Bucs OVER 51.5||27-30||Win||100||22 h 2 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. OVER has cashed in 6 straight games for Tampa Bay with every single one of those game seeing at least 50 points. Bucs have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6. The only team they held under the mark is an awful Titans offense, who put up 27. Cardinals have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 4 and have scored 25 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-03-19||Bucs v. Seahawks OVER 52.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||30 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5)
The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.
I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.
As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.
OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|10-25-19||USC v. Colorado OVER 62||Top||35-31||Win||100||71 h 39 m||Show|
50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)
You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.
Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.
Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42||Top||9-19||Loss||-104||46 h 59 m||Show|
50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42)
I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.
It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.
You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.
I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.
OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48.5||30-16||Loss||-110||30 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER NO-BRAINER(Over 48.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFL action. These are two teams that not long ago were known for having elite defenses, but that's not the case anymore. Both these teams are built around their talented mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson has the Ravens averaging 30.7 ppg and 451 ypg, while Wilson has the Seahawks at 27.5 ppg and 400 ypg. Both defenses have not been good. Baltimore is allowing 4.4 yards/rush, 61% completions, 7.7 yards/pass attempt and 6.5 yards/play. Seattle is allowing 4.7 yards/rush, 64% completions, 7 yards/pass attempt and 6.2 yards/play. BET THE OVER 48.5!
|10-20-19||Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5||27-21||Loss||-109||26 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-13-19||Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5||33-34||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road).
Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt.
Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson.
Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-27-19||Penn State v. Maryland OVER 60||Top||59-0||Loss||-115||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60)
I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF.
Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions.
At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60!
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers OVER 46||Top||34-27||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-07-19||Vanderbilt v. Purdue OVER 55||24-42||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 55)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 55. While the Boilermakers are coming off a crushing loss to Nevada, the loss was more on the defense. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and were throwing the football all over the place. Not to mention they were playing with even more pace than last year.
Vanderbilt wants to play faster and have some serious weapons at the skill positions. The Commodores couldn't get anything going against an elite Georgia defense, but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one. This total should be closer to 60 and I wouldn't be shocked if the two combined for 70. Give me the OVER 55!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State OVER 56.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-110||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|08-30-19||Oklahoma State v. Oregon State OVER 74||52-36||Win||100||95 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Oregon St/Oklahoma St OVER 74)
I was originally going to lay the points with Oklahoma State, but there's just something about a game in Corvallis that scares me. However, I'm not concerned with the Cowboys ability to score points with whoever ends up playing QB.
Gundy is a QB guru and he just added in Sean Gleeson from Princeton to be his OC. Gleeson did some pretty innovative stuff with Princeton and he's got a ton of playmakers at his disposal. None better than junior wide out Tylan Wallace.
Oregon State has 9 guys back on defense, but that doesn't mean as much when it's from a unit that gave up 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg. Opposing QB's completed 64% of their attempts against the Beavers secondary in 2018.
Oregon State gave up 40 or more in 7 of their 12 games last year, including 77 in the opener to Ohio State.
Key here is that while OK State is primed to put up a big number, I think the Beavers will do their part offensively behind senior QB Jake Luton and some talented skill players. Also, Cowboys only have 5 starters back on a defense that wasn't great in 2018. Give me the OVER 74!
|08-29-19||Kent State v. Arizona State OVER 59.5||7-30||Loss||-120||71 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5. When I first looked at this game I considered laying the 25 points with ASU and would probably still lean that way. However, I feel there's a lot more value here with the OVER, as we simply need 60 points to reach our mark.
Arizona State was way better than expected in year one under Herm Edwards and they did that with a pretty mediocre offense (29.9 ppg). I think they are closer to 35 ppg in 2019 and should score a ton against a Kent State defense that is outmatched. I'm really excited to see freshmen quarterback Jayden Daniels, who should thrive with how much defenses will have to respect the run with Eno Benjamin back (1,642 yards, 16 touchdowns).
The even bigger key here is the tempo "FlashFAST" in which Kent State second year head coach Sean Lewis is looking to play at. He's a former OC under Dino Babers and their uptempo offense at Syracuse. Last year he got a Kent State offense that returned just 6 starters from a team that averaged 12.8 ppg and got them 23.9 ppg with more than 100 yards/game improvement. They got 9 starters back, including one of the better QBs in the MAC in Woody Barrett. I think this is going to be a much better offense than anyone anticipates. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|08-24-19||Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47||Top||24-20||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)
If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.
Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.
One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.
It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.
Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.
Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.
UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51||16-36||Loss||-112||23 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played.
The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg).
This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road.
Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5||34-13||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.
As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.
I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.
Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61||Top||17-14||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|09-29-18||South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52||10-24||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52)
I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards.
South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road.
The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points.
UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5||30-27||Win||100||56 h 60 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.
Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.
Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.
What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5||23-45||Win||100||23 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-107||21 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.
While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.
The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.
You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.
We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5!
|09-16-18||Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 53||42-37||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 53)
My strongest play in Week 1 was the Chiefs/Chargers OVER 48. I had a really good feeling this Kansas City offense was going to put up points and at the same time would allow their fair share on the defensive side of the ball. That’s exactly what happened, as the two teams combined for 66 points and more than 900 yards of offense.
I know this is a massive total, especially compared to most of the other games on the board for Week 2, but I think these two will easily eclipse this mark.
The Chiefs put up 38 points in Week 1 and did so without much help from two of their top targets in Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. That just tells you the talent this team has at the skill positions and I love that Mahomes isn’t just forcing it to his star players.
The Steelers defense held the Browns to just 21 points, but that was in less than ideal conditions (heavy wind and rain). This was not the same caliber a defense last year after they lost Ryan Shazier and one I think will struggle in 2018. The big thing that stands out to me is they allowed 177 rushing yards to the Browns. Look for KC to have a balanced attack in this one.
As for the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Chiefs defense. I look for Big Ben and company to feast on this KC defense. The Chiefs allowed 541 yards to the Chargers in Week 1 and were very fortunate LA only ended up with 28 points. With Eric Berry out again and all those new faces in the secondary, this unit is going to struggle early. Not to mention Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is a whole different beats at home compared to on the road.
OVER is also 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played early on in the month of September. Give me the OVER 53.
|09-15-18||Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 70||Top||62-7||Loss||-115||25 h 11 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.
This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.
There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.
I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.
OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.
|09-14-18||Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60||22-59||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times.
Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.
I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark.
OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER!
|09-09-18||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48||Top||38-28||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48)
I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48!
|08-31-18||Syracuse v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5||Top||55-42||Win||100||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5)
Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.
I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.
Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.
The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.
OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|08-30-18||Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 52.5||31-27||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 52.5)
This might seem like a high total given the two teams only combined for 36 points in last year’s meeting at Northwestern, which the Wildcats won 23-13. However, that final was a bit misleading, as Purdue only scored 13 points, despite racking up 438 total yards. Northwestern had 14 points in the 1st quarter, but had to settle for 3 field goals the rest of the way. You also have to factor in that game was played in November, when scoring is a lot tougher given the cold conditions.
I also think Purdue games are going to be a lot more high-scoring this year. While the offense was better in Brohm’s first season, it didn’t improve as much as people expected given Brohm’s offensive background. A lot of that had to do with the players learning a new system and only 5 starters returning from 2016. Purdue was also able to rely on their defense to win games, so they didn’t have to force things offensively.
That’s not going to be the case this year. The Boilermakers figure to take a big step back defensively after losing 9 of their top 12 tacklers. In order for them to win games, they are going to have to put up points and with the talent they have coming back (9 starters) they should average close to 30 ppg.
While we are still waiting for the official word on whether Thorson will be available to start for Northwestern, all signs point to him being ready to play, as he’s been practicing fully for a couple weeks now. With Thorson in the lineup, the Wildcats should be able to put up a big number here against this inexperienced Purdue defense.
OVER is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 home games as a favorite of 3-points or less and 11-3 in Northwestern’s last 14 Big Ten conference road games. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|08-25-18||Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 46.5||29-7||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* NCAAF "WEEK ZERO" TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 46.5)
New Mexico State has 9 starters back from a defense that only gave up 29.7 ppg and 401 ypg last year. It continued a remarkable turnaround under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. In his first year on the job (2016) he took over a defense that had just allowed 45 ppg and 522 ypg the previous year to only giving up 38.8 ppg and 497 ypg. With all the talent coming back, there’s no reason to think the numbers won’t continue to improve in 2018.
As for Wyoming, their defense carried them in 2017. The Cowboys went from giving up 34.1 ppg in 2016 to only allowing 17.5 ppg in 2017. Not only do they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball, but are loaded with juniors and seniors, making them one of the more experienced defenses in the country.
You also have to factor in the transition that both teams are going through at quarterback. Everyone knows the kind of talent Allen was. As for the Aggies, they got their own hole to fill at quarterback with the departure of Tyler Rogers. He was a difference maker for that offense in 2017. He completed 62% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards with a solid 27-18 TD-INT ratio. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns. Not only does New Mexico State lose Rogers, but they also lose their top wide out and dynamic running back.
Another factor here is coaching. I have a ton of respect for both Martin and Bohl. I’m confident both of these teams will be well prepared for this contest and wouldn’t be shocked if both sides failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|01-01-18||Georgia v. Oklahoma UNDER 61||54-48||Loss||-102||22 h 27 m||Show|
40* OKLAHOMA/GEORGIA ROSE BOWL NO BRAINER (Under 61)
I think it's worth a shot here to take the UNDER 61 in Monday's New Year's semifinal game between Oklahoma and Georgia. I know Oklahoma put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this year, averaging 44.9 ppg and 583 yards/game, but let's not forget about what conference they play in. There's only a few teams in the Big 12 that play any defense and even those teams aren't great. None of which are anywhere close to what Georgia brings on that side of the ball.
The Bulldogs had one bad showing all season, giving up 40 on the road to Auburn, but that was clearly not a focus Georgia team (came into that game with big heads after being No. 1 and starting out 9-0). They proved that was a fluke by completely shutting down Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, holding them to 7-points and just 259 total yards. Add in the extra time to prepare and I think this defense is going to make life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners attack.
Keep in mind the closest defense in terms of talent that Oklahoma faced was Ohio State and while they beat the Buckeyes, they only scored 31 points. That game is also a good sign of what the Sooners defense is capable of, as they limited the Buckeyes to just 16 points and completely shutdown Ohio State's running game, limiting them to just 104 yards on 37 attempts. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Georgia's rushing attack, but I think they play well on that side. I also think the Bulldogs are going to look to grind out possessions and help their defense by keeping them off the field.
History is also on our side. UNDER is 7-1 in Oklahoma last 8 vs an SEC opponent, 7-1 in their last 8 neutral site games, 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 20-7 in Georgia's last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games, and 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Give me the UNDER 61!
|12-27-17||Missouri v. Texas OVER 60.5||16-33||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
40* TEXAS BOWL BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Over 60.5)
I think we are in store for a shootout tonight in the Texas Bowl between the Longhorns and Tigers. While Texas had one of the better defenses in the Big 12, they will be going up against arguably the hottest offense in the country to end the year in Missouri, who scored 45 or more points in each of their final 6 games. Keep in mind that Texas is down several key players on defense, including linebacker Malik Jefferson, defensive lineman Chris Nelson and two of their top defensive backs in DeShon Elliot and Holtin Hill. I just feel that's going to make it really hard for the Longhorns to keep this Missouri offense in check.
On the flip side of this, Texas has a very capable offense and while they weren't as good as many expected in Tom Herman's first year, the extra practice time leading up to this game could have only helped them on that side of the ball. The bigger key here is that Missouri's defense is atrocious. The Tigers gave up 33.4 ppg and 476 ypg away from home this season and that was with playing a bunch of bad offensive teams. In their finale against Arkansas, who I don't think is as good as Texas offensively, they allowed the Razorbacks to put up 45 points and nearly 450 yards. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams scored 40+ in this game. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|12-23-17||Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41||16-23||Win||100||24 h 15 m||Show|
40* NFL SATURDAY BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Under 41)
First things first, conditions aren't going to be ideal for scoring in Baltimore on Saturday. While temperatures are expected to be a modest 60 or so degrees, it's going to be windy, with winds expected around 15 mph throughout. Not to mention a 50% chance of rain. That's definitely a plus, but I also think these two teams could struggle to eclipse 40 points in ideal conditions.
Let's start with the Colts offense. I'm not quite sure how they are going to move the ball against this Ravens defense. Indy's offensive line is a mess. They lost their best lineman in center Ryan Kelly a couple weeks ago and won't have starting right tackle Denzelle Good for this one. The Ravens rank in the top 10 in sacks and in pass defense. They will force feed Frank Gore, but I don't know how much success they will have, as Baltimore is equally as good against the run. It would not surprise me the least if the Ravens pitched a shutout, though I'm sure Indy will find a way to put some points on the board, just not very many. Note they have scored 17 or fewer in 5 straight.
I'm not just banking on the Colts not being able to score, but I'm counting on Indy's defense to play with some pride. If they don't, this will have a hard time staying under. With that said, I'll take my chances they come to play. This is a team knew their season was a lost cause with the Andrew Luck injury. This is just another chance for them to get a win and I love the fact that they are getting zero respect as a near two touchdown underdog. It's also worth noting the Colts have had a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Baltimore's offense has been better, but there's no need for them to run up the score if things get out of hand, as they have bigger things in mind than just this game. Give me the UNDER 41!
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-108||9 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|12-16-17||Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61||28-38||Win||100||45 h 34 m||Show|
40* LAS VEGAS BOWL TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 61)
The Ducks finished the year averaging a modest 36.7 ppg, which was the 18th best mark in the country. What gets overlooked is that they played 5 games without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. In the 5 games Herbert played in to start the season before getting hurt, Oregon averaged 49.6 ppg. In the 5 games he missed, they averaged 15 ppg and that was with a 41-point outburst against Utah. Herbert returned for the final two games and they scored 48 on Arizona and 69 against Oregon State. This isn’t just a good offense with Herbert, it’s one of the best in the nation.
I also want to point out that I don’t Taggert leaving is going to hurt the production of the offense. They aren’t going to change up anything on that side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal has been named the new head coach.
Boise State’s defense finished with great numbers, ranking 23rd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 35th in points allowed (22.5 ppg), but they played a lot of bad offensive teams in the MWC. The best offense they faced in conference play was Colorado State and while they won the game, they gave up 52 to the Rams. This team also allowed 42 to Virginia and 47 to Washington State in their two step-up games outside of conference.
Oregon’s defense is greatly improved, but they still have their problems stopping the pass. The Ducks were a mere 76th vs the pass, allowing an average of 230.3 ypg though the air. The strength of the Boise State offense is their passing attack, which averaged 254.5 ypg (44th) behind quarterback Brett Rypien, who threw for just over 2,500 yards, completed 63.5% of his attempts and posted a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The offense could also be forced to throw even more than they would like, as star running back Alexander Mattison is questionable to play. That would be a plus, as we don’t want Boise trying to eat up the clock on the ground.
I think there’s potential here for this to get well into the 70’s and possibly even higher, which makes this an easy play given where this total has been set. Give me the OVER 61!
|12-14-17||Broncos v. Colts OVER 40.5||25-13||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
40* BRONCOS/COLTS TNF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 40.5)
I think we are simply seeing a bit of an overreaction to the low-scoring games these two teams just played in. Denver’s defense was sensational against the Jets. Not only did the shutout New York, they limited the Jets to just 100 total yards and 6 first downs. The Colts on the other hand played in a game against the Bills where the two teams combined for a mere 20-points with 6 of those coming in overtime. Though that was in blizzard-like conditions so that's nothing to read into.
Denver’s strong showing at home against the Jets didn’t surprise me. The Broncos had basically hit rock bottom the previous week in a 9-35 los at Miami. I expected them to come out and play one of their better games and they did just that. I just don’t think we are going to get that same kind of effort here on the road against the Colts. Not only is there little to get excited about with playing Indy, but it’s extremely difficult for teams to play up to their potential defensively in these Thursday night games. They simply don’t have enough time to recover with just a 3-day break.
Keep in mind that prior to last week’s shutout against the Jets, Denver’s opponents had scored 20 or more against them in 8 straight games. Not to mention the Broncos are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg on the road this season. So while the Colts have been struggling to score, I think we see them have a decent showing here at home.
Same thing goes for the Denver offense, who should be able to build off last week’s strong showing against a wore down and not very good Colts defense. Indy is also a team that is completely out of the playoff picture and are going to try and get a lot more young guys on the field to evaluate for next year.
Let’s also not forget that this game is being played in perfect conditions with it being in a dome. That’s another big factor here that favors a high-scoring game. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. Give me the OVER 40.5!
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)
I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5!
|12-02-17||Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 48.5||Top||28-7||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)
As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.
For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.
You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.
As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.
I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC UNDER 58||Top||28-31||Loss||-105||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)
These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle.
Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time.
I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58!
|11-27-17||Texans v. Ravens UNDER 39.5||16-23||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 39.5)
I just don't see these two teams doing a whole lot offensively in this game. Baltimore had a stretch where they were hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they got a lot of those guys back and are back to being an elite defensive team, which is evident by the 2 shutouts they have had in their last 3 games. I just don't see a Tom Savage run Houston offense being able to do much of anything, as the Ravens should be able to take away the running game and force Savage to beat them with his arm, something I don't think he's capable of doing on the road.
The other key here is that the Texans are still an above-average defensive teams and Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Ravens rank dead last in passing offense, averaging just 165.2 ypg through the air and have rushed for less than 75 yards in 3 of their last 4. Not to mention the Texans run D has been on point of late, as they are giving up just 69.3 ypg over their last 4. That puts even more pressure on Baltimore's anemic passing attack and I just don't see them doing a lot. I think both teams could struggle to score 17 in this one. Give me the UNDER 39.5!
|11-25-17||Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 52||24-31||Loss||-105||16 h 22 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)
Both Indiana and Purdue go into the final game sitting at 5-6 with the winner becoming bowl eligible and the loser likely done for the year. That basically makes this a playoff game and I think that this total is way to high. Not only does the magnitude of the game favor a lower-scoring affair, but these are two teams that aren't all that great offensively and really strong on the defensive side of the ball.
Purdue comes in ranked 82nd in the country in total offense, averaging right around 385 yards/game and Indiana is 81st at 388 yards/game. Defensively, the Boilermakers are 34th in the country, giving up just 360 yards/game and the Hoosiers are 22nd allowing only 330 yards/game.
UNDER is 9-2 in Purdue's last 11 games and 7-1 in their last 8 against a conference opponent. UNDER is also 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 when playing a road game after their last game was at home. Give me the UNDER 52!
|11-13-17||Dolphins v. Panthers UNDER 38.5||21-45||Loss||-110||32 h 42 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5)
I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47||17-40||Loss||-110||65 h 45 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47)
I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday.
Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg.
The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points.
The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47!
|11-05-17||Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42||23-51||Loss||-115||24 h 38 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42)
Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg.
I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller.
At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league.
UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 48||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||9 h 36 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48)
I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M UNDER 55.5||35-14||Win||100||26 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5)
I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5.
Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides.
Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here.
The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg).
UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49.5||Top||24-34||Loss||-107||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5)
The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5!
|10-21-17||Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5||7-45||Win||100||23 h 10 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5)
I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark.
Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season.
Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg.
Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground.
UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5!
|10-21-17||Purdue v. Rutgers OVER 47||12-14||Loss||-110||19 h 24 m||Show|
40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47)
I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10.
The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game.
I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here.
The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg).
OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47!
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 46||Top||30-31||Win||100||23 h 8 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46!
|10-16-17||Colts v. Titans UNDER 48||Top||22-36||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)
I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers.
The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season.
Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48!
|10-14-17||BYU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5||Top||10-35||Win||100||87 h 19 m||Show|
50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5)
BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.
They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.
The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.
The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!
|10-13-17||Clemson v. Syracuse UNDER 57.5||Top||24-27||Win||100||21 h 28 m||Show|
50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5)
I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit.
Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.
The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.
Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.
The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5
|10-08-17||Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5||16-10||Loss||-110||43 h 1 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5)
If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense.
Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for.
Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success.
The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg.
Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out.
I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-30-17||Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 52||10-49||Loss||-110||24 h 3 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)
I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value.
As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense.
Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field.
One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here.
I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52!
|09-28-17||Texas v. Iowa State OVER 63.5||Top||17-7||Loss||-110||47 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)
I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country.
The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye.
The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5!
|09-24-17||Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 42||27-33||Loss||-117||39 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42)
Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game.
While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started.
They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall.
Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case.
UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here.
|09-23-17||Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 48||3-31||Win||100||25 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48)
I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48!