Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-17 | South Florida +10 v. Central Florida | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (USF +10) It's almost as if people forgot about how good this South Florida team is. Not to take anything away from UCF, but this is just too big of a number for them to be laying against the best team they have faced all season. Not only do I think the Bulls are capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but I think there's a good chance to win the game outright and spoil the Knights quest for a perfect season. For the most part this season UCF has simply been able to just outscore their opponent, but that won't be so easy against the Bulls. USF not only has a high-powered offense that can go score for score with the Knights, but they are also a lot better defensively than they get credit for. The Bulls are only giving up 19.9 ppg and I think they are better than that, as they haven't exactly had to give their best effort in a lot of their games because of how lopsided the matchup was. UCF is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bulls on the other hand have stepped up against the better competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me South Florida +10! |
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11-24-17 | Navy v. Houston -4.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -4.5) I'll lay the points here with the Cougars at home against the Midshipmen. I just think this is a tough spot for Navy after that big game against Notre Dame, where they had the No. 8 team in the country on the ropes. I know they have a week off after this game against Houston, but I also think it will be hard for the Midshipmen to not look ahead to their huge rivalry game against Army, which means a little more than normal after last year’s loss to the Black Knights. As for Houston, I look for a big bounce back effort here after laying an egg on the road against Tulane last week. The Cougars will also be out for revenge, plus have a little extra motivation here with this being their final home game of the season (senior day). The big key here is I believe Houston has the talent up front to really cause problems for Navy’s triple-option attack and it all starts with star sophomore defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who has helped guide the Cougars to the 39th ranked run defense, giving up just 142.7 yards/game. Note that last week they held Tulane, who is currently 22nd in the country at 237 rushing yards/game to just 166 yards on 47 attempts (only 3.5 yards/carry). If they can keep the Midshipmen from running at will, it’s going to keep Navy from controlling the clock and let Houston’s offense pick apart a weak Navy defense. If the Cougars can get their offense going early, this could turn into a bit of a blowout, as the Midshipmen aren’t built to play from behind. Give me Houston -4.5! |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL LATE NIGHT THANKSGIVING ATS NO BRAINER (Giants +7.5) I was impressed with how New York responded after being called out by their head coach in the week leading up to their game against Kansas City. They played one of their best games of the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I believe we will see this team carry over that effort here against a division rival. As for Washington, I think it’s asking a lot of this team to pull away for a comfortable win here. While they aren’t officially out of the playoff race, that loss to the Saints really made things difficult for the Redskins. The Falcons hold the final Wild Card spot in the NFC at 6-4 and there’s 4 teams between Atlanta and Washington. The big concern here for me with the Redskins is they are once again dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Starting center Spencer Long is on IR and backup Chase Roullier just fractured a bone in his hand this past Sunday. Good chance Roulier doesn’t play and if he doesn’t backup guard/tackle Tony Bergstrom will be forced into action at center. The team will also be without starting left guard Shawn Laovao and left tackle Trent Williams will be a go on short rest with a bum knee. Needless to say the offensive line is a complete mess right now and it’s just hard to win games, especially by more than a touchdown when dealing with these kinds of injuries up front. Look for the Giants defensive front to live in Washington's backfield. That’s not the end of the injuries for the Redskins offense. Wide out Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Thompson both just landed on IR. While Pryor has been a disappointment after signing as a free agent, Thompson is tied for the team lead with 39 receptions and his 510 yards receiving are second only to Vernon Davis with 527. Thompson is also the top backup at running back with Rob Kelly on IR. Same Perine has taken over as the lead back, but he’s questionable, as is tight end Jordan Reed. I know the offense of the Giants is nothing to get excited about, but the Redskins defense has been reeling. Washington has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. If they struggle at all to find motivation after that crushing loss to the Saints, New York could be in store for one of their best offensive games of the season. At the same time, I don't think they have to be great offensively to keep this within a touchdown, as I don't see this turning into a shootout. Give me the Giants +7.5! |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -14.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Mississippi St -14.5) I would typically look to back the underdog in a rivalry game like we have here in what is known as the Egg Bowl, but I just don't see how Ole Miss keeps this game close. Sure, they haven't had anything to play because of a self-imposed postseason ban. I'm not saying that the Rebels won't show up for this one. That's not a doubt. I just don't think they are good enough to keep it close. You don't think this team wanted to beat Alabama when they played them? The Crimson Tide destroyed them 66-3. They also had a 21 point loss to Auburn and 16 points defeat at home to LSU. Those are the only 3 ranked teams they played and they weren't competitive in any of those. Mississippi State is just a step below the elite of the SEC, which in my opinion is Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. Right there with LSU. The Bulldogs had some struggles on the road against Georgia and Auburn early in the year, but those came on the road and this is a much better team at this point in the season, which is evident of their upset win over Alabama a few weeks back. While they did just fail to cover as a near two-touchdown favorite last week at Arkansas, they just didn't have the same fire coming off that loss against the Crimson Tide. They won't be lacking it against Ole Miss. Offensively the Bulldogs should have a field day, as the Rebels have had all kinds of problems stopping the run and slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks. Ole Miss does have some talent on offense, but this is a top tier Mississippi State defense that is going to feed off the home crowd under the lights in a prime time game. I think they can hold the Rebels to 21 or less, while scoring close to 40. Give me the Bulldogs -14.5! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Lions | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NFL THANKSGIVING BANKROLL FEAST (Vikings -2.5) I'll take the bait here and back Minnesota laying less than a field goal against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team. Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team. The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around. Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards. Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome. Give me Minnesota -2.5! |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NFL FALCONS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -2.5) My money is on the Seahawks laying less than a field goal at home against the Falcons. I just don’t think Seattle is getting near enough respect here in a prime time home game, especially this late in the season and with how much they want this game given what happened in that ugly playoff loss to the Falcons a year ago. Year in and year out under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks always seem to be playing their best football in the 2nd half. I know they lost a huge piece to their defense in Richard Sherman, but they still have two of the best safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. I also think backup Jeremy Lane is capable of holding his own. Lane also has had a few extra days to get use to his new role, as Seattle gets a big advantage here playing with 3 extra days of rest after the Thursday night game. At the same time, I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with Atlanta off that big win over the Cowboys. Dallas is simply not the same team without Ezekiel Elliott and there would have been major concerns had they not won convincingly. I just think that win has people thinking this team is back, but in reality they are 2-4 in their last 5 and more likely to revert back to their old ways. It’s also not like Atlanta’s offense lit the world on fire against the Cowboys and the offense hasn’t looked the same all season. Even without Sherman this is a top notch Seahawks defense that is only giving up 18.3 ppg. I also don’t think the offense gets enough respect, especially at home. Seattle is averaging an impressive 28.2 ppg and 426 ypg at home this season. Look for Russell Wilson and the offense to steal the show in this prime time affair. Give me the Seahawks -2.5! |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ravens -2) I believe the fact that Green Bay was able to pull out a victory in Chicago has provided some hope that the Packers aren’t completely done for without Rodgers. I’m not buying it, as I don’t think any player means more to their team than Rodgers. Let’s also not overlook the win came against the Bears, a team they know very well with them being in the same division, plus Chicago is a bad team. I know the Ravens haven’t been playing great here of late, but this is a great spot to back them, as Baltimore is coming off of their bye. A big time advantage this late in the season. It’s also a spot in which they have excelled, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off their bye week. I also love this matchup for the Ravens, who are a top tier defensive team. Baltimore is 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 311 yards/game. While the run defense hasn’t been great, Green Bay isn’t a strong running team and could be without their two best options out of the backfield. Aaron Jones had really come on strong for the Packers, but he’s out 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and backup Ty Montgomery is questionable with a rib injury. That’s going to put too much pressure on Brett Hundley, who simply isn’t very good. The big concern with Baltimore is their offense and rightfully so. The Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at just 286.6 ypg. However, this Packers defense is getting exposed now that they are being asked to do a lot more with the offense struggling to score. In Green Bay’s 3 games without Rodgers, the defense has allowed 408.3 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. While the win over the Bears certainly helped keep this line from being more, I also think Green Bay is getting more respect than it deserves on their home field. Keep in mind we already have seen them lose badly at home in two games without Rodgers, falling 17-26 to the Saints and 17-30 to the Lions and that game against Detroit was on Monday Night Football, when you would expect the home field edge to be at it’s strongest. Give me the Ravens -2! |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +8 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins +8) As hard as it is to go against a red-hot team like the Saints, I would have to lean towards taking the points here with Washington. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 7-game winning streak, as it’s no easy task to win that many in a row, regardless of who you are playing, but it’s certainly been a favorable stretch for them. In just their last 4 games they have faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears and Bucs at home and a clearly dysfunctional Bills team that is doing everything they can to ruin this season. The latest move being benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. They also have a home win over the Lions and win against the Dolphins in London where Miami didn’t show up to play. The best win of the bunch is a victory at Carolina way back in Week 3. That looks great now with how the Panthers are playing, but keep in mind that Cam Newton was playing at less than 100% early in the year. Now I’m not saying the Saints are going to lose this game at home, I just think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by more than a touchdown against a good but not great Washington team. Despite a rash of injuries, including a stretch where they were missing 4 starting offensive linemen, the Redskins have showed a lot of fight and this feels like a game they need to have to keep their playoff hopes alive. We also have a strong system that backs this being a good time to fade the Saints. Favorites in the NFL that are averaging 27 or more points/game are just 9-27 (25%) ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since 1983. Give me the Redskins +8! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show |
50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2) The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2. LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs. The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game. Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2! |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Oregon PK) I think we are getting some great value here with the Ducks at just a pick’em on their home field in a prime time night game on Saturday. I think a lot of people will be inclined to back Arizona here, as they have been the much better team of late. The Wildcats are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the only loss coming at USC. Oregon on the other hand is 1-4 in their last 5 with the only win coming at home against Utah. My biggest concern here with the Wildcats is a lack of motivation, as there’s really not a lot at stake for Arizona. With USC’s win over Colorado last week, Arizona no longer has a shot at the Pac-12 South title. I think they could find it difficult to get up for an Oregon team that hasn’t been playing well, especially given that they got their huge in-state rivalry game against Arizona State on deck next week. As for Oregon, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, something that’s a bigger deal than normal given they didn’t qualify last year and are in the first season of new head coach Willie Taggart. I also think we get a very motivated Ducks team off of their bye after how poorly they played in their last game against Washington. However, the biggest reason that I like the Ducks, is I feel there’s an excellent chance we see starting quarterback Justin Herbert return from injury. Some thought he was going to return in their last game against the Huskies, but it didn’t happen. While nothing is official, he was practicing with the first team during the bye week and Taggart mentioned in his press conference on Monday that he’s really close and hopeful that he’s going to be ready to play. My money is on him playing and with him this is a completely different Oregon offense. Herbert had completed 68.3% of his attempts for 1,264 yards and 9 touchdowns (only 2 picks) before getting hurt. Backup Braxton Burmeister in comparison has thrown for 324 yards in 5 games, 4 starts. If by chance Herbert doesn’t play, I still like the Ducks here, as they bring a potent rushing attack to the table, which is currently ranked 11th in the country at 255.2 ypg. Arizona just allowed 151 to a horrible Oregon State ground game last week and the week prior gave up 331 rushing yards to USC. I also think the bye week is going to pay off huge for Oregon’s defense, which will have two weeks to put together a game-plan to slow down the Wildcats Khalil Tate. Note that the Ducks strength defensively has been stopping the run, as they are 30th against the run (130.5 ypg) compared to 98th against the pass (249.2 ypg). Oregon is also a profitable 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games off a bye, while Arizona is just 3-12 ATS under Rich Rodriguez in road games off a cover and 0-6 ATS under Rodriguez in road games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Ducks! |
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11-18-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Ole Miss | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS BLOWOUT (Texas A&M +3) Not only does Texas A&M have revenge on their minds from last year’s loss to Ole Miss, but they are the only team with something to play for down the stretch. Ole Miss is not eligible for postseason play, as they self-imposed a one-year ban. It’s a big reason why the Rebels are just 5-5 with only 2 wins in SEC play. Keep in mind those two wins both came against teams out of the East in Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They are 0-3 against teams from the West, including a loss at home to Arkansas, which to this point is the Razorback’s only conference win. I just have a hard time seeing Ole Miss matching the Aggies intensity in this one given the circumstances, especially with their huge in-state rivalry game against Mississippi State on deck. While Texas A&M is just 3-3 in league play, all 3 of their losses have come against top teams out of the West in Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State. I just feel they are the much better team in this matchup and actually would have them favored. The biggest factor here for me is I can only trust one of these teams to get stops on the defensive side of the ball and that’s Texas A&M. Ole Miss has been atrocious on defense this year, as they come in 112th in points allowed at 35.6 ppg and are 118th in total defense, giving up 454.2 ypg. In comparison, the Aggies are only giving up 27.5 ppg and are a respectable 39th in total defense, allowing just 367.2 ypg. Ole Miss is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games played in November, 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Aggies +3! |
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11-18-17 | Purdue +8 v. Iowa | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 68 h 23 m | Show |
50* NCAAF *BIG TEN* GAME OF THE MONTH (Purdue +8) I'll take the points with the Boilermakers in this one. Purdue is a team that I have been on quite a bit this season and a big reason for that is the big improvements I was expecting under new head coach Jeff Brohm. While the wins have been tough to come by of late, this team could easily be sitting at 6-4 and 4-3 in league play. They only lost at Wisconsin by a final of 9-17 and have two conference defeats by a combined 3 points against Rutgers and Nebraska. Not only do I think Purdue has a good chance of keeping this within the number, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. That’s because this is not an ideal spot for Iowa coming off those two huge games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Not to mention a big rivalry game on deck to close out the year at Nebraska looming next Friday. I just think it’s going to be hard for them to give the Boilermakers their full attention, especially given how lopsided the series has been. Purdue on the other hand should lay it all on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Boilermakers need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Getting to a bowl game is a big deal for this team, as they haven’t been to one since 2012. The other thing here is Iowa is a team that more times than not find themselves in close games and rarely do they blow teams out unless there’s a big gap in talent. I just don’t think Purdue is one of those teams that they have a massive edge against. Lastly, there’s a good chance this is a low-scoring game, which makes the points that much more valuable. Sure Iowa put up 55 in their last home against Ohio State, but after watching the Buckeyes thrashing of Michigan State, I think that was clearly more of Ohio State not showing up to play. After their 14-points against Wisconsin, all via the defense, the Hawkeyes have now scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their 7 Big Ten games. The only other exception against the worst team in the league in Illinois. This is also a spot Iowa has struggled in, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, Purdue is 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the Boilermakers +8! |
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11-18-17 | Navy +18 v. Notre Dame | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP PLAY (Navy +18) You can never be quite sure how a team will respond to a loss like the one Notre Dame suffered, but more times than not those teams struggle to play up to their potential the next time out. Especially in a situation like this, where the loss for the Irish all but eliminated them from a chance to make the 4-team playoff. Not only do I think it has Navy showing some great value here as a 3-score underdog, but I believe it gives them a legit shot at pulling off the upset. While Notre Dame could find it difficult to pick themselves up off the mat, Navy is going to come out guns blazing against a what’s likely to be a Top 10 opponent. Not to mention they will be playing with a ton of confidence after that thrilling win over SMU. Another thing here is that the Midshipmen are better than they get credit for. Their largest loss all season is by just 10-points at home against a very good UCF team and they were right there down just a field goal with less than 5 minutes to play. They also have a mere 3-point loss at Memphis who is a Top 20 team. Navy is also a team that’s built to keep games close with their triple-option attack that eats up the clock and limits the opposing teams number of possessions. It’s also a very difficult offense to prepare for and you have to wonder just how motivated the Irish players are going to be in practice this week. If Notre Dame doesn’t come in with the right state of mind, Navy is going to torment that defense from start to finish. Midshipmen are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when listed as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home win by 3-points or less. The Irish on the other hand are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against similar teams to Navy, who are a run first team (average 125 or less passing yards/game). Give me the Midshipmen +18! |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 65 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Virginia +19) As good as Miami looked against Notre Dame, this is a tricky spot for the Hurricanes. For most of this season Miami has been the team flying under the radar. They also had a chip on their shoulder as everyone kept doubting them. Now the roles have been reversed. Everyone is singing the Hurricanes praises and while the college football playoff rankings aren’t out just yet, they are up to No. 2 in both the AP and Coaches Polls. This is the ideal letdown spot for Miami, as that win over the Irish was the biggest in quite some time for this program and no one is expecting Virginia to be a serious threat. As much as head coach Mark Richt will try to keep his team focused at the task at hand, it’s going to be very hard for the Hurricanes to do just that. I’m not saying the Cavaliers are going to win this game outright, but I think they can do enough here to keep it within the number. Let’s not forget this Miami team has had several close calls this season. Not only did they have the two miraculous last-second wins over both FSU and Georgia Tech, but they also only beat the likes of Syracuse by 8 and North Carolina by 5. I also think Virginia poses a difficult matchup. One of the reasons the Hurricanes were able to shutdown Notre Dame’s offense is the Irish didn’t have anything to fall back on when the running game wasn’t working. The Cavaliers likely aren’t going to have much success on the ground either, but senior quarterback Kent Benkert and this offense feature a potent passing attack. I believe it’s good enough to move the ball and put some pressure on this defense, it also keeps open the possibility of a backdoor cover if things do happen to get out of hand early. Another thing is this Miami offense is still a work in progress. While they scored 41 against the Irish, they only put up 374 total yards in that game. The defense was as big a part of the offense than anything, as they had just 1 scoring drive more than 60 yards, with 4 scoring drives that started with the offense getting the ball on the Irish side of the field. Keep in mind that the Hurricanes had scored 28 or fewer points in each of their previous 5 games. One last thing is this ridiculous rate that Miami is creating turnovers is simply not sustainable and there’s going to come a time when the breaks just don’t go their way. With a defense that figures to just be going through the motions off that big win, this could be the week they don’t rack up the turnovers and that not only would give Virginia a great shot at covering, but potentially pulling off the upset. Give me the Cavaliers +19! |
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11-18-17 | Mississippi State -11.5 v. Arkansas | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Mississippi St -11.5) I typically wouldn’t look to back a team like the Bulldogs off such a crushing loss in a big game, but I have a lot of faith in head coach Dan Mullen and his staff to get his team to bounce back with a big time effort. In fact, I believe that performance against Alabama will only add to the confidence of this Mississippi State team, who has had a chip on their shoulder from the start after getting picked by most experts to finish last in the SEC West. Not only are they not going to finish last, but they have a chance at a 10-win season if they can win their last two and their bowl game. The other big thing here is this isn’t a good Arkansas team. The Razorbacks only win inside conference play came against Ole Miss, who is basically just going through the motions with no shot at postseason play. Arkansas is getting outscored in conference play by more than 20 ppg and have been no match against the top teams. I also think it’s important to point out that LSU was in a very similar spot to Mississippi State, as they had just lost the week before to Alabama. That would have been an easy spot for the Tigers to lay down and yet they won the game by 23 points. Another factor that will get overlooked with the Bulldogs off that loss to the Crimson Tide is the revenge angle that Mississippi State has after last year’s loss to the Razorbacks. The matchup is also one that I think favors the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s defense has been outstanding outside of their 3 games against Auburn, Georgia and Alabama, who are easily the 3 best teams in the SEC. Even if the defense slips, the offense should be able to carry the load and do enough to get a win here by at least two touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense has been non-existent in SEC games this season, as the Razorbacks are allowing 43.5 ppg and have allowed at least 33 in all 6 of their conference games. Arkansas is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. On the flip side of this, we see that Mississippi State is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when coming off a home loss. Give me the Bulldogs -11.5! |
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11-18-17 | Central Florida v. Temple +14 | Top | 45-19 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 50 m | Show |
50* NCAAF *AAC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Temple +14) I love the Owls in this spot. UCF is a great team but because of their great start against the spread are way overvalued right now. I not only think they have a hard time covering this number against Temple, but I wouldn't be shocked if their perfect season came crashing to an end on Saturday. The Owls have been a different team since Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He's started just 3 games and already has 883 passing yards and is completing 65% of his attempts with a 6-3 TD-INT ratio. UCF has been exposed through the air on multiple occasions and I think his ability to make plays gives the Owls a great shot at the upset here. This is also a horrible spot for UCF. While they can see Temple has been playing better, they have already had the game next week at home against USF circled on the calendar. I just don't think they are going to have the right mindset here and it only gets harder to play up to your true potential when you get this deep in the schedule without a loss. One thing is for sure and that's the Owls are going to lay everything they have on the line here and that should be enough for them to cash a winning ticket. Give me Temple +14! |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
40* NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Steelers -7) Most people expected the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and cover against the Colts last Sunday, but that didn’t happen. Pittsburgh was lucky just to leave Indianapolis with a win. I think that performance will have a lot of people looking to back the Titans catching a touchdown in this Thursday night matchup, but I’m just not a believer in this Tennessee team and will take my chances with the Steelers at home in a prime time game. It’s no secret that the home team has a huge edge in these Thursday games when both teams are playing on short rest. That combined with the fact the Titans have no been a good road team is a big reason why I’m willing to lay the touchdown here. Tennessee hasn’t played on the road since they went to Cleveland back on 10/22 and they barely beat the Browns, needing overtime to escape with a 12-9 win. The Titans also lost at Miami 10-16 and at Houston 14-57 in their previous two on the highway. As you can see, the offense has really struggled to put up points away from home and it’s not going to get any easier here against a very good Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 16.4 ppg and are also 2nd in total defense, allowing just 284.5 ypg. One thing Pittsburgh does very well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a team to rush for more than 71 yards in each of their last 4 games. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a quality signal caller, Tennessee ranks just 27th in the NFL at 203.9 passing yards/game. As for the Steelers offense, you simply can’t read to much into their lackluster showings in their last two games at Detroit and at Indianapolis. For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just doesn’t play well on the road. With a tired and banged up Titans defense coming to town, I look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense to have a lot of success here against what I think is an overrated Tennessee defense. The Titans rank just 23rd in points allowed, giving up 23.7 ppg, despite an easy schedule. In their 9 games they have faced numerous bad offenses, such as the Jaguars, Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals. Titans are also not a team that has performed well off a win, as they are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games off a win. Tennessee is also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game in which they didn’t cover the number and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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11-16-17 | Buffalo -20.5 v. Ball State | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Buffalo -20.5) I don’t know how you could even think about backing Ball State in this one. The Cardinal have shown no reason to think they can keep a game competitive. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points. It’s really not asking a lot for Buffalo to win here by 3 touchdowns. I believe that part of the reason we aren’t seeing a bigger spread is because the Bulls come into this game with a losing record at 4-6 and are just 2-4 in conference play. However, Buffalo’s not as bad as you might think. All 6 of their losses have come by 10-points or less, with 4 of them by 4-points or less. The Bulls could very easily have 7 wins right now and I think that’s how you have to treat them. The big concern anytime you have a bad team like Ball State is the opponent not giving their full attention. I don’t see that being a problem. Not only are the Bulls going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss to the Cardinals (lost 3 straight overall), but they have to win out to become bowl eligible. Note that getting to a bowl is a big deal, as they haven’t been since 2013 and only been twice in program history. Buffalo should also have zero problem here putting up a big number offensively. The Bulls come in 44th in the country 427 yards/game, behind a potent passing attack that ranks 24th at 285 yards/game. Not only will they be able throw it all over the Cardinals, but they should be able to run it at will, as Ball State has allowed 220+ rushing yards in each of their last 4 games. At the same time, the Cardinals offer no threat of scoring when they have the ball. Ball State has scored 17 or fewer points in every single MAC game this season and Buffalo is no slouch defensively, as they have held 7 of their 10 opponents to 24 or less points. Give me the Bulls -20.5! |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -3) My money is on the RedHawks here at what I feel is a great line to back them given the circumstances. Miami (OH) is sitting at 4-6 and need to win their final 2 games to become bowl eligible. Given they got a gimmie win on deck against a horrible Ball State team, it really all comes down to this game for the RedHawks. That means we are going to get the very best this team has to offer and it only helps that they just recently got back starting quarterback Gus Ragland, who threw 3 TD's in last weeks' 10-point win over Akron, which looks a lot better after what the Zips did to Ohio last night. Eastern Michigan is a good team, much better than their 3-7 record, as they have 6 losses by a touchdown or less. The key here is that last week's loss to Central Michigan eliminated them from postseason play and now they have nothing to play for. I just don't see the Eagles matching the intensity of Miami in this one and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Give me the RedHawks -3! |
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11-14-17 | Ohio -13 v. Akron | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
100* NCAAF *MAC* GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio -13) This game is for 1st place in the MAC East. No surprise here to see Ohio listed as the favorite, but by 13 on the road. I think this line is begging for you to take the home dog in this weekday game and it makes me like Ohio that much more. I'm also not buying any talk on the Bobcats suffering a letdown after their huge win over Toledo. This game is for the right to play in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats are coming to play. I think that's all we need here, as Akron is lucky to be in this spot. Two of their conference wins are against bad teams in Bowling Green and Ball State. They also have two 1-point wins over Buffalo and Western Michigan. Note they are the only team to 56 or more points against Ball State (scored 31) and the only to not win by 40 or more (won by 28). They also only outgained Ball State by 7 total yards . That's the only game against a FBS opponent where they won the yardage battle (ougained by 100 or more in 6 games, 200+ in 3). I also think it's important to note that this Ohio team has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Evident by their complete domination of a not just good but great Toledo team in their last game. Prior to that they beat Miami (OH) 45-28, Kent St (48-3) and Bowling Green (48-30). This is also not a fluke, as they were picked to win the division. I think this gets ugly. Give me the Bobcats -13! |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers UNDER 38.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5) I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
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11-12-17 | Packers v. Bears -4 | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears -4) I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time grasping the Bears being a favorite against the Packers, even with Rodgers sidelined. More than anything, I don’t think the public trusts Chicago enough to take advantage of the opportunity. I’m on the other side of this, as I don’t think the loss of Rodgers is being taken into account enough. It certainly wasn’t in Green Bay’s last two games when they lost at home to the Saints 17-26 as a 4-point dog and then to Detroit as a mere 2.5-point dog at home. Based on what we have seen from backup quarterback Brett Hundley, I would have to lay the points with Chicago in this one. The Packers simply aren’t as talented as people think, as Rodgers does a really good job of making them look better than they are. Especially on offense, where Green Bay’s offensive line has been stinking it up for years. The Packers have also had a horrible time running the ball, despite defenses having to pay so much respect to Rodgers and his arm. I just think it’s asking a lot of Hundley and this offense to score enough to keep this game competitive against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of Chicago this season and at 3-5 most just think they are playing up to their potential. While the offense has a long way to go, the defense has been one of the best in the league. Chicago ranks 8th overall in total defense (312 ypg) and are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. They have been especially stingy at home, where they are given up just 15.7 ppg. All of this and we haven’t even got into the huge scheduling advantage that the Bears have. With Chicago coming off a bye, they get 13 days to rest up and prepare for the Packers. On the flip side of this, Green Bay has just 5 days to get ready after playing on Monday Night Football. I also don’t think there’s a ton of hope here for the Packers offense with Hundely. If they were going to figure things out, they would have done so during their bye week leading up to last week’s game against Detroit. Another thing here is I think we could see the best game from Bears rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who has had to face some really good defenses in his first 4 starts (Vikings, Ravens, Panthers and Saints). Green Bay isn’t a great defensive team, as they are just 25th in the NFL, giving up 357 ypg and have been especially bad on the road, where they are giving up 29.3 ppg. Give me the Bears -4. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | 47-10 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bills +3) As well as the Saints have been playing, I think the value here is with Buffalo catching a field goal at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points/game. Had it not been for that ugly loss to the Jets in prime time last week, I think this would be closer to a pick’em and maybe even have Buffalo favored. Keep in mind the Bills had won 4 of their previous 5 games before the loss. Another key thing with the performance against New York, you can’t overlook how difficult it is for a lot of these teams to play on the road with that short week of rest and preparation. I don’t think there’s any doubt that’s no where close to an accurate showing of how this team has played. Also, the scheduling aspect now works in their favor, as they get an extra 3 days of rest and time to prepare due to playing on Thursday. I know New Orleans is 3-1 away from home this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and some lucky breaks like going to Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury. Historically this Saints team has not been nearly the same team on the road as they have at home and Buffalo can be one of the more difficult places to play, especially this late in the season. When most people think of the Saints offense the first thing that comes to mind is Drew Brees and the passing attack. However, they have been running the ball effectively this year. I think that’s important to note, as there have been 4 games where they were held to 105 or less yards and in all 4 games they scored 20 or fewer points (2-2 record). On the flip side, they have rushed for 145 or more in their other 4 games and scored 26 or more in all 4 of those. I believe the Bills are a team that can really make it tough on the Saints rushing attack. Buffalo comes in ranked 8th in the NFL giving up just 94.4 ypg on the ground. They have also held 5 of their 8 opponents to fewer than 80 yards and are giving up just 68 yards/game at home this season. New Orleans is just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they came into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Buffalo on the other hand is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games played in Weeks 10 through 13 and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season. Give me the Bills +3. |
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11-12-17 | Vikings -2 v. Redskins | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2) The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board. I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month. Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal. I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5. Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
50* NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame -3) Miami head coach Mark Richt has done an amazing job getting the Hurricanes back in the national spotlight, but I think their perfect season comes to a crashing end on Saturday. In fact, I actually think we are getting some great value here with Notre Dame only laying a field goal. Not to take anything away from the Hurricanes, who are a really good team, I believe the Irish are an elite team. Whether or not you agree likely depends on how a big a believer you are in Georgia, who handed Notre Dame their only loss of the season. I agree with the playoff committee and feel the Bulldogs are the best team in the country and given it took a late field goal for Georgia to beat Notre Dame 20-19, I feel Notre has to be treated like they are in the same class. Let’s also not forget the Irish have not just beaten some other great teams, but won convincingly against them. That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, 49-14 win at home over USC and a 35-14 win at home over NC State. I don’t feel that Miami is in that same class. The Hurricanes could just as easily be 6-2, as they had miracle wins against both FSU and Georgia Tech. I also don’t think the win over Virginia Tech is as big a statement as others. In fact, I had Miami in that game, and a big reason why was I thought the Hokies were overrated. I also like the matchup here. As good as Miami has been defensively, they haven’t seen anything close to what they are going to see from an offensive line like they will on Saturday from Notre Dame. This defense has pushed a lot of their opponents around and I think they have a hard time dealing with the fact that it’s them that’s getting pushed around on the field. As for Notre Dame’s defense, it is really good too and they do a really good job of not allowing the big plays and those big plays are really all that’s kept Miami’s offense from blowing this perfect season. Give me Notre Dame -3. |
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11-11-17 | TCU +7 v. Oklahoma | 20-38 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 1 m | Show | |
40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (TCU +7) I actually like TCU to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points as some added insurance. There’s several different factors here that make me like the Horned Frogs, but the biggest of them all is only one of these two teams plays defense and that’s TCU. As great as the Sooners win over Oklahoma State looks, they lose that game if the Cowboys have any sort of defense, as Oklahoma’s stop unit gave up 661 total yards, 32 first downs and 52 points in the victory. While TCU has scored just 31-points in their last two games combined, it’s came against two of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 in Texas and Iowa State. Don’t let that fool you into thinking this team can’t produce on the offensive side of the ball. The Horned Frogs are still averaging a healthy 35.8 ppg and are more than capable of exposing this Oklahoma defense. I also think it’s important to point out that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are two very similar teams and we have already seen TCU make easy work of the Cowboys on the road. The Horned Frogs defeated Oklahoma State 44-31 on the road back in late September and it really wasn’t that close, as TCU had a 37-17 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. As for the Horned Frogs defense, they are the exact opposite of what you have grown to see from Big 12 teams. TCU is giving up just 13.9 ppg, which is the 6th best mark in the country. They also rank 6th in total defense, allowing just 284.1 ppg. In their last 4 games they have allowed a whopping 27 points. Oklahoma hasn’t allowed fewer than 24 points in a single Big 12 game. You don’t normally think of teams suffering a letdown in a game of this magnitude, but I think it’s asking a lot out of the Sooners to bounce back from that emotional roller-coaster win last week against their in-state rivals. I know they are at home, but it reminds me a lot of the spot Ohio State was just in this past week and their horrible showing against Iowa after their emotional win over Penn State. Another thing I love here is just how little respect TCU is getting in this matchup and don’t think for a second they don’t know they are a touchdown dog here. Keep in mind that Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson has got his teams to play well in this role, as TCU is 30-19 ATS under Patterson when listed as an underdog. Horned Frogs are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me TCU +7! |
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11-11-17 | Alabama v. Mississippi State +14 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR Mississippi St +14 I’m anticipating the public will be all over Alabama in this one, but my money is on the Bulldogs catching two touchdowns at home. I know Mississippi State had a couple of clunkers earlier this season against two of the top SEC teams in Georgia and Auburn, losing 31-3 to the Bulldogs and 49-10 to the Tigers. The big reason I’m not investing a ton into those games is they both came on the road and Mississippi State has righted the ship with 4 straight wins, including an impressive 35-14 victory at Texas A&M prior to their game against UMass. As for the poor showing against the Minutemen, that was to be expected off that big game against the Aggies and knowing they had Alabama at home on deck. I expect the very best the Bulldogs have to offer, as I don’t think there’s any doubt that this team believes they can knock off the Crimson Tide. The biggest factor here for Mississippi State is that this is a home night game in prime time on ESPN. The cow bells will be out in full force, as the atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium is going to be electric. I believe that gives the Bulldogs a fighting chance to win the game. It also doesn’t hurt that they are catching Alabama off their huge showdown last week at LSU. It’s the perfect spot for Mississippi State to pick off the SEC frontrunners. I also like the matchup here for the Bulldogs, as they have the talent, depth and playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, much like LSU, to give this Alabama offense fits. As we saw last week against the Tigers (only 116 rushing yards), if you can keep the Crimson Tide from running at will, you can keep their entire offense in check. I’m not expecting a ton of fireworks from the Mississippi State offense against this top notch Alabama defense, but I think they can score enough to keep this within the number. If there’s been a weakness for the Crimson Tide defense under Saban, it’s mobile quarterbacks that can extend plays with their legs. The Bulldogs have one of the better dual-threat QB’s in the country in Nick Fitzgerald, who leads the team in rushing with 801 yards and has also scored a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns. Give me the Bulldogs +14! |
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11-11-17 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 17-40 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47) I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday. Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg. The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points. The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47! |
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11-11-17 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show |
50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech +3) When you get to this late in the season, you have to pay attention to what’s left for teams to play for. I believe it’s critical when handicapping this matchup and has the Yellow Jackets showing some great value here as a home dog. Georgia Tech is sitting at 4-4 on the season and if they want to become bowl eligible, they have to win 2 of their last 3. Given one of those is a likely loss to in-state rival Georgia, this game against the Hokies is one they absolutely have to have. I think playing an extra game means something to Paul Johnson and his players. I expect a big time effort here from the Yellow Jackets at home against one of their Coastal rivals. The same motivation simply isn’t there for Virginia Tech. While you could say the Hokies are going to be motivated for revenge from last year’s loss to Georgia Tech, I’m not buying it. Last week’s game against Miami was for 1st place in the Coastal Division. Not only did Va Tech lose, but the defeat eliminated them from any chance of defending their division title. That’s a tough pill to swallow and either way I would have expected some kind of letdown here after the big game against the Hurricanes. I think it only makes matters worse for Virginia Tech that they have to go up against the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech, which is very difficult to prepare for on a short week of rest. To stop the option you have to be 100% locked in and have a very discipline approach. I just have a hard time seeing the Hokies players being fully invested in practice this week. At the same time, Va Tech’s defense has had their struggles against the run away from home, as they are allowing 4.7 yards/carry on the road. The Yellow Jackets are average 5.5 yards/carry on the season. Nearly 1.2 yards more per carry than what their opponents typically allow and that average climbs to 6.0 yards/carry at home. Lastly, this Georgia Tech defense is no joke. While they gave up 40 last week at Virginia, they held the Cavaliers to just 357 total yards and 15 first downs. Virginia scored a ton of points off great field position and also had a 92-yard kickoff return for a TD. When facing top tier defenses the Hokies have struggled to put up points. Also, if you take away their 59-point outburst against UNC, they have averaged just 18.5 ppg in ACC play. Give me the Yellow Jackets +3. |
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11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 61 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Duke -2.5) It's time to put up or shut up for the Blue Devils, who at 4-5 need to win 2 of their final 3 games to get back to a bowl after missing out on postseason play a year ago. It looked like they would get to 6 wins without a problem, as they started the season 4-0, but have since dropped 5 straight. I believe that has the Blue Devils way undervalued here in a very favorable matchup with Army. Duke has had a ton of success going up against the triple-option playing in the same division as Georgia Tech. They also have faced this Army team each of the last two years. They held the Black Knights to just 3 points in 2015 and 6 points last year. Their defense is even better against the run this season than it was last year, plus they have had two full weeks to prepare for the option coming off of their bye. Army is setting at 7-2 and you might think there's a lot to play for, but that's not really the case, as they have already accepted a bowl bid to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. The only thing that really matters to them the rest of the regular-season is the finale against Navy. On top of that, they just played another armed forces rival last week in Air Force, which they upset on the road 21-0. Simply put, this game means a heck of a lot more to the Blue Devils than it does the Black Knights and we are getting great value with this short number. Note that Duke is 13-4 ATS under Cutcliffe in road games off a bye. Give me the Blue Devils -2.5! |
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11-11-17 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +7 | 49-42 | Push | 0 | 61 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +7) I was on the Cyclones as a 7-point dog in their 31-13 blowout win on the road against Texas Tech and again the next week when they beat TCU at home 14-7 as a 7-point dog. I laid off ISU in last week's game at West Virginia and it was the right call, as they failed to cover in a 16-20 loss. I'm jumping right back on the Cyclones bandwagon as they again are catching a touchdown, this time at home against Oklahoma St. This isn't just a play against the Cowboys off that crushing loss at home last week to Oklahoma, but it's definitely a big factor into this decision. That loss dropped Oklahoma State to 4-2 in the Big 12 and likely out of contention for the Big 12 title game. Regardless of what happens in Saturday's game between TCU and Oklahoma, the loser would still be 5-2 in league play and would hold the tie-breaker over the Cowboys. They would need whoever loses that game to lose again and that's just unlikely to happen. At the same time, this Iowa State team is the real deal, as Matt Campbell has turned this program around faster than anyone could have imagined. There's something special going on offensively behind senior walk-on QB Kyle Kempt and the defense is right there with Texas and TCU as the best in the league. Since limiting Oklahoma to 7-points in the 2nd half of their upset win in Norman, the Cyclones have held each of their last 4 opponents to 20 or less. As good as the Cowboys offense is, they struggled mightily against TCU and Texas. They ended up with 31 against the Horned Frogs, but had just 17 before a couple of late scores and that was at home. They only had 13-points on the road against the Long Horns. I think the defense steps up again and ISU wins this one outright. Give me the Cyclones +7! |
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11-10-17 | Washington v. Stanford +6.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Stanford +6.5) You can never underestimate the advantage that these teams have playing at home in a prime time weekday game. Even more so when it's against a highly ranked opponent like we have here with Stanford hosting Washington. To a lot of people this line isn't going to look like enough and will back the Huskies, but I actually think the Cardinal win this game outright. Stanford has had this game circled on the calendar ever since the schedule was released, as they have not forgot about the embarrassing 44-6 loss they suffered at the hands of these Huskies last year. I also think the Cardinal are a lot better than people think. I know they barely beat Oregon State and just lost at Washington state, but star running back Bryce Love didn't play against the Beavers and wasn't quite back to 100% against the Cougars. I believe he's going to be back to elite form here and he's the type of talent that can have success even against a top tier defense like Washington. This spot reminds me a lot of when USC had to go on the road earlier this season and face Washington State on a Friday night. The Cougars came away with the upset and I like Stanford to do the same. Note the Cardinal are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, improving their record to 55-14 at home going back to the 2007 season. They are also 6-0 ATS since 2005 as a home dog. Give me Stanford +6.5! |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL (SEA/ARZ) TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -6) I'm rolling the dice with Seattle in this one, even though the road team is at a big disadvantage in these Thursday night games. Key here is the Seahawks have a strong track record in these Thursday games under head coach Pete Carroll, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot. Seattle has also been a great team to back when coming off a loss, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when coming off defeat. At the same time, I just don’t trust this Arizona team at all right now. Getting a road win over the 49ers is nothing to get excited about, as San Francisco hasn’t won a game all season. The biggest concern with the Cardinals being the loss of starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who suffered a season-ending injury in their previous game against the Rams, which they lost 0-33. Drew Stanton went just 5 of 14 in relief of Palmer against LA. While he threw for 200 yards against the 49ers, he completed just 50% of his attempts. The biggest thing that stands out to me in that game against San Francisco, is the offense leaned heavily on Adrian Peterson, who carried it 37 times for 159 yards. That’s great, but you have to wonder just how much AP will have left in the tank on a short week of rest. At the same time, they will be going up against a much better defense in Seattle, who is giving up just 18.6 ppg and will load up the box to try and force Stanton to beat them with his arm. I also think this Arizona defense could be in for a long day, as they have not fared well against the better teams they have faced. In fact, they have allowed a combined 38 points in 3 games against the 49ers (twice) and Colts. In every other game they have allowed at least 28 points, giving up 30 or more 5 different times. It’s no secret that Seattle isn’t as good on the road as they are at home, but at the same time the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Arizona is also a mere 1-6 in their last 7 off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing less than 15 points. Give me the Seahawks -6! |
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11-09-17 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER (Appalachian St -17.5) I'm willing to lay the big number here with the Mountaineers at home against Georgia Southern. You have to sometimes worry about teams overlooking an opponent like the Eagles, who are winless on the season at 0-8, but that's not a concern for this one. Appalachian State is going to be a pissed off bunch and completely locked in after losing their last two games. If they want any hope of earning at least a share of the Sun Belt title they must win out and I believe it starts with a lopsided victory tonight. The key here is the Mountaineers should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State comes in averaging 4.9 yards/carry on the ground with an even better 5.6 average at home. Georgia Southern's defense is giving up 5.3 yards/carry on the season and a ridiculous 6.9 yards/carry on the road. On the flip side of this, don't be fooled by the Eagles averaging 204 rushing yards/game. They have no choice to run because they can't throw and are actually only averaging 3.8 yards/carry. Mountaineers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry at home and should be able to top that knowing Georgia Southern can't throw (only average 106 passing yards/game). Give me Appalachian State -17.5! |
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11-08-17 | Eastern Michigan -2 v. Central Michigan | 30-42 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (E. Michigan -2) I don’t think this line is going to make a whole lot of sense to a lot of people. Central Michigan is 3-2 inside conference play and fresh off a big upset win on the road over one of the top teams in the MAC in Western Michigan. Why would they be getting points at home against a Eastern Michigan team that is just 3-6 overall and just won their first conference game of the season? Any time you have a line that looks wrong, it’s usually for a good reason. Especially this late in the season when the books are locked in on every team. However, the line isn’t the only reason I would lean towards taking the Eagles in this matchup. I actually agree with the books here and see Eastern Michigan as the better team. If you take a closer look at the Eagles resume to this point, you will quickly see their record could look a heck of lot different if they caught a few breaks in close games. It’s bad enough to lose a two or three games by a touchdown or less. All 6 of Eastern Michigan’s defeats this year have come by 7 or less points, including 3 by 3 or less. They are 1-6 in games this season decided by a touchdown or less, while Central Michigan has caught all the breaks with a 3-0 record in these close games. I also feel like this is a great matchup for the Eagles offensively. Eastern Michigan has a top tier passing attack behind senior Brogan Roback, which comes in ranked 30th in the nation at 276.8 ypg. Where they have struggled is on the ground, as they are 122nd at 108.9 ypg. That lack of balance has cost them in a lot of close games this year. They should be able to have a balanced attack here, as the Chippewas are 109th in the country vs the run, giving up 205.8 ypg. They allowed 300 or more yards on the ground for the third time this season last week against Northern Illinois. This is also a much better Eagles defense than it gets credit for and that’s saying something, as they come in allowing just 20.3 ppg. What’s so impressive about that is their opponents on average are scoring 28.7 ppg. In comparison, Central Michigan is allowing 27.1 ppg against teams who on average put up 28.7 ppg. Lastly, I like the spot here for Eastern Michigan, who need to win out to become bowl eligible. Central Michigan on the other hand needs to win just 1 of their final 3 to get to the 6-win mark and I think they are in a prime letdown spot here after the huge comeback win over their rivals last week. Give me the Eagles -2. |
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11-07-17 | Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF TUES. NIGHT MAC ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -6.5) I'll take my chances on the RedHawks winning at home by at least a touchdown on Tuesday against Akron. This line will likely surprise a lot of people, as the Zips are tied on top the MAC East division at 4-1, while Miami is just 2-3 in conference play. That right there tells you how misleading the books thinks the records are. Akron has done an outstanding job of winning ugly. The Zips are only averaging 332.8 ypg inside conference play, while giving up 452.6 ypg. To be outgained on average by roughly 120 ypg is more indicative of a 1-4 team than 4-1. In comparison, Miami is putting up 427.6 ypg and allowing just 378.4 ypg. Unless the Zips catch all the break again, I think this one will turn into a blowout and easy cover for the RedHawks, who are going to be laying everything on the line here, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. Give me Miami (OH) -6.5! |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* LIONS/PACKERS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -2) I'll take the bait here with Detroit, as I'm just not buying the Packers being much of a threat the rest of the way without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. I don't think there's any QB in the league that means more to their team than Rodgers. The offense only managed 227 yards in the game against the Vikings, where Rodgers suffered that season-ending injury in the 1st quarter. They then totaled just 260 yards in their next game at home against the Saints, where they were outgunned by 225 yards. In those two games, backup Brett Hundley completed just 51.7% of his attempts with 1 TD to 4 interceptions. Green Bay has no choice but to rely on their rushing attack and Detroit knows that. It also plays into the strength of the Lions defense, which ranks 6th in the league, giving up just 91.6 ypg on the ground (have only allowed more than 90 yards twice this season). I'll take my chances with Stafford and the Lions offense doing enough to win here by a field goal. Give me the Lions -2! |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bucs +7) I'll take Tampa Bay catching a touchdown in this one, as I think we are getting a great price to back the Buccaneers here, due to their recent struggles and the Saints coming in having won and covered each of their last 5. I know the records say different, but I just don’t think there’s as big of a gap in talent here as the line would suggest. Keep in mind that Tampa was only a 3-point dog in last year’s visit to the Superdome. As bad as Tampa Bay was on offense last week against the Panthers, I like their chances of having success on that side of the ball against the Saints. While New Orleans has been playing better defense of late, a big reason for that is who they have played. During their 5-game winning streak they have faced the Panthers, Dolphins, Bears and Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The lone decent offense they faced during this stretch was the Lions and they gave up 38 points to Detroit. It’s also worth noting that prior to last week’s game, Tampa had scored 30+ in each of their previous two games. There’s also encouraging news regarding Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, who ailing right shoulder has certainly played a role in the teams struggles. He was on the field practicing Wednesday, which is something he wasn’t able to do the past two weeks. Something to keep in mind with the Saints and their high-powered offense is they just lost starting right guard Larry Warford. New Orleans is already down starting right tackle Zach Streif. Injuries up front can really derail an offense and I that can only help the Bucs defense keep Brees and company in check. Tampa Bay is an encouraging 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 and the Saints are a dismal 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games when they come in having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. The Bucs are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Bucs +7! |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg. I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller. At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league. UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42! |
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11-05-17 | Rams -4 v. Giants | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4) I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week. It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for. The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s. On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense. You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4! |
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11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC -7 | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 50 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7) I'll be the first to admit that I didn't foresee USC coming out and playing as well as they did last week on the road against Arizona State after that crushing loss to Notre Dame the previous week, which all but eliminated them from the playoff picture. If they are going to show in that spot, I see no reason not to expect a huge effort here from the Trojans at home against Arizona, as these two teams sit on top the Pac-12 South with just 1-loss in conference play. No longer having to deal with the pressure of winning the national championship brought out the best in this team and I also think we saw a pissed off Sam Darnold in that game against Arizona State, as there's been all kinds of people doubting his ability with USC not living up to their potential. I think he has a big final few games of the season and helps the Trojans make easy work of a good but not great Arizona team at home. Give me USC -7! |
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11-04-17 | Colorado v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 30-41 | Win | 100 | 48 h 54 m | Show |
50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona State -3) I think we are seeing a big overreaction here based on last week's results of both of these teams. Colorado had one of their best games of the season in a 44-28 win at home against Cal, while the Sun Devils are off one of their worst performance of the season in a 17-48 home loss to USC. I think how well the Trojans came out after that ugly loss to Notre Dame surprised ASU, as a lot of people were calling for USC to struggle with their playoff hopes all but crushed. Prior to the loss to the Trojans, the Sun Devils had been playing some of their best football of the season, which included 4 straight covers as a double-digit dog, three of which they won outright, including that 13-7 win at home over Washington. My money is on Arizona State to bounce back in a big way here in a prime time night game at home against what I feel is a below-average Colorado team. That win over Cal was only the second in the last 6 games for the Buffaloes and the other was against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Oregon State and they barely won that 36-33. In their two games against top tier teams from the conference they were no match, losing by 27 at home to Washington and 28 at Washington State. While ASU isn't quite on that level, they should have no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Sun Devils -3! |
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11-04-17 | Minnesota v. Michigan -15 | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan -15) I don't think many will be running to the ticket window to back the Wolverines, but I see some hidden value here with Michigan at home against the Gophers. The one thing that's been holding back the Wolverines is their offense, but I don't think that's going to be the case for long. Last week against Rutgers Jim Harbaugh finally went with red-shirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters and the offense looked completely different with him under center. I think the move gives new life to this team and will have the Big House rocking under the lights Saturday. Michigan's defense is still one of the best in the country, ranking 8th against the run (104.1 ypg) and 2nd against the pass (151.4 ypg). They have had to shoulder the load and it can be hard on a defense to play up to their full potential when they don't have a lot of confidence in the offenses ability to put up points. I think the QB switch also has a big positive impact on them and this Minnesota offense is one they can shutdown. The Gophers are 11th in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing game. I see things spiraling out of control pretty quickly and wouldn't be surprised if they had a couple costly turnovers that put this one well out of reach early. Give me the Wolverines -15! |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL +3 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS ENFORCER (Miami +3) All the Hurricanes have heard this week in practice is how their 7-0 start isn't good enough and that they have been fortunate to win two of their games. I like that this team has shown the ability to win close games, especially since we are getting a field goal with them at home in a prime time night game. I expect Miami to come out with a chip on their shoulder and put together one of their best performances of the season. Virginia Tech is a good team, but in their only game against a top tier opponent in Clemson they were completely outmatched and let's not forget that was a prime time home game for the Hokies. Much like they did against Clemson, I think Va Tech is going to have to ask too much of their red-shirt freshman QB in Joshua Jackson. I think Jackson and the Hokies find it hard to move the ball against the speed and athleticism of this Hurricanes defense. Give me Miami +3! |
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11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas +7) When Tom Herman is getting points you have to roll the dice and back his team. Going back to his days as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, the team he's coached has gone a perfect 14-0 ATS when listed as an underdog and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark with the Longhorns this season. I also love the fact that Texas is coming in with serious revenge, as they have lost each of the last 3 in the series. TCU on the other hand is a team I think is going to struggle to pick themselves off the mat after last week's crushing 7-14 loss to Iowa State, which pretty much derailed any hopes they had of making the playoffs. In that game against the Cyclones, who have been playing great defense dating back to the 2nd half against Oklahoma, TCU's offense was non existent and when they did get into ISU territory, starting quarterback Kenny Hill had two costly turnovers. His confidence has to be shattered and it's not going to get any easier for him against Texas. Hill is going to have to make plays, as TCU figures to have a tough time moving the ball on the ground against this Longhorns run defense, which is one of the best in the country, allowing just 71 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry at home. If Hill struggles like I think he will, this could get ugly. Give me the Longhorns +7! |
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11-04-17 | Clemson -7 v. NC State | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Clemson -7) I'll take my chances here with Clemson laying just a touchdown against rival NC State. I think this Tigers team is being greatly undervalued after the loss to Syracuse, where they lost their quarterback midway through the game. This is still the same team that whooped up some really good teams and if not for horrible weather they would have beat Georgia Tech by a lot more than 14 last week. NC State is a great story and I can understand why they are getting some respect, I just don't think they are good as people think. That certainly appeared to be true in last week's 14-35 loss to Notre Dame, who was primed for picking off after that big game against USC the week before. That's really the only elite team they have played so far. I see this one playing out very similar to that of the game last week against the Irish, where the offense struggles to put up points and the defense has their hands full against top tier talent on the other side. Under head coach Dave Doeren the Wolf Pack are just 2-9 ATS in 11 home games played in the 2nd half of the season, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their previous on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing their previous two games on the road. Give me the Tigers -7! |
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11-04-17 | Penn State v. Michigan State +9.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 20 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Michigan State +9.5) Penn State can say all they want about how they aren't going to let the Ohio State loss derail the rest of the season. I'm not buying it. They know just like we do that the loss to the Buckeyes all but ended any hope they had of making the playoffs and playing for a national championship, as they would need Ohio State to not just lose one but two games to sneak back into the picture as the Big Ten champs. That's going to make it near impossible for the Nittany Lions to bring the right mindset on the road after that crushing loss to the Buckeyes. At the same time, I don't think Michigan State is getting near the respect they deserve. This is one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about and still have a ton to play for. In fact, if they win out, which would include a win at Ohio State next week, they would take home the Big Ten East title. This is a line I would have liked the Spartans at even if Penn State would have beat Ohio State and weren't in such a horrible spot. Given the situation, I think Michigan State should be favored or at worse getting no more than 3 points. That makes this an easy play on the home dog. Give me the Spartans +9.5! |
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11-04-17 | Illinois v. Purdue -14 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Purdue -14) I was on the wrong end of the bad beat last week with Purdue, but that’s not going to keep me from laying the two touchdowns with the Boilermakers at home on Saturday. Purdue is so much better than what they have shown the last few weeks and this feels like the perfect spot for them to get back on track. Illinois is the worst team in the Big Ten and are in a prime letdown spot off that home game against the Badgers. The Fighting Illini are 0-3 on the road, losing by an average of 20 ppg. They just don’t have the offensive fire-power to be competitive away from home. Illinois hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a single game and are averaging just 17.3 ppg on the season. I think Purdue can hold them well below their average, as the Boilermakers are a lot better defensively than they get credit for. Purdue is holding teams roughly 10 points under their season average. Illinois on the other hand is allowing their opponents to score 10 points more than what they average when on the road. If that holds true, we are looking at final here of roughly 34-7. That’s more than enough to cover the 14-point spread. There’s several key trends in play here that back a fade of Illinois in this spot. The Fighting Illini are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having lost 5 or more games in a row and have lost in this spot by more than 20 ppg. Illinois is also 15-31 ATS in their last 46 off a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Purdue on the other hand is a solid 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Give me Purdue -14! |
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11-04-17 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt -9.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Vanderbilt -9.5) I got no problem backing the Commodores at home at this price. Vanderbilt should have zero problem winning by double-digits here against what I feel is one of the most overrated teams in the country in Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers went 23-5 the previous two seasons under previous head coach Jeff Brohm, but he left the cupboard empty with just 10 returning starters and Brohm was such a big part in why they were so good. Just look at how much better Purdue is already in his first year there. WKU does come in with a winning record at 5-3, including a 4-1 record over their last 5, but their wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, UTEP, Charlotte and Old Dominion. Ball State is atrocious and the 3 teams they have beat inside C-USA are a combined 3-21 on the year. They also lost by 17 on the road against Illinois, who is the worst team in the Big Ten and no where close to as good as Vanderbilt. The Commodores would be a much bigger favorite if they weren't coming into this game having lost 5 straight with a 0-4-1 ATS mark during this stretch. The thing is, 3 of those losses came on the road and the other two at home were against Alabama and Georgia. This team can still make a bowl with home games against Kentucky and Missouri, plus a game at Tennessee left on the schedule. I look for Vandy to take out their frustration on an inferior opponent. Give me the Commodores -9.5! |
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11-04-17 | Florida +3.5 v. Missouri | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 36 m | Show |
50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +3.5) I love teams in this spot, where everything looks lost after they just fired their head coach and think we are getting great value on top of it, as I think the Gators should be favored regardless of the circumstances. Either way, we can bank on a great effort here from Florida in the first game under interim head coach Randy Shannon. One of things that Shannon did right away is name former Notre Dame quarterback (grad transfer) Malik Zaire the starting QB. I'm not sure what he did to piss off McElwain, but I think he should have been the starter from the start. I think he gives new life to a Florida offense that desperately needs a spark. It doesn't hurt that it's coming against a horrible Missouri defense that ranks 98th against the run (192.4 ypg) and 103rd against the pass (260.6 ypg). I also think the Tigers defense will be in for a long day here against a really good Gators defense that simply had a bad game last time out against Georgia. Prior to giving up 42 to Bulldogs, they had held been playing really well and we have seen this Missouri offense struggle against worse defense, including a 3-point effort at home to Purdue. Florida is 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and Missouri is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 14 or fewer points in their previous game. Give me the Gators +3.5! |
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11-03-17 | UCLA v. Utah -6.5 | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
40* UCLA/UTAH LATE NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Utah -6.5) October couldn’t have gone much worse for the Utes, who lost all 4 games during the month. It wasn’t exactly the easiest slate, as they had to play Stanford, USC and a red-hot Arizona State team in 3 consecutive weeks. They then had that clunker on the road against the Ducks. I know that’s not the same Oregon team without starting QB Justin Herbert, but Eugene is never an easy place to get a win. I think it makes this a really good spot to back the Utes at home in a prime time game against rival UCLA. With Washington State and Washington still on the schedule, this is one Utah can’t afford to lose if they want to make a bowl for a 4th straight year. I expect the very best the Utes have to offer. I can’t say the same for UCLA, who I think are just going through the motions to close out 2017 in what’s almost a sure thing to be the final year under head coach Jim Mora. The Bruins are also winless on the road at 0-4 with the average loss away from home coming by more than 16 points/game. I also like the matchup here for the Utes, who have struggled to get their running game going. That won’t be a problem against this UCLA defense, which comes in 130th out of 130 FBS teams against the run, giving up a ridiculous 307.1 ypg. Factor in the short week of rest and playing on the road for a second straight week in one of the more difficult places to play and I think that Bruins defense gets exposed early and often. UCLA’s offense can put up points, but I just don’t see the Bruins scoring enough here to keep this game close. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 52.9% of their pass attempts when Utah is playing at home and UCLA relies as much as any team in the country on their pass attack. Give me the Utes -6.5! |
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Idaho +18) After a long hard look at this one, I think we are getting too much value here with Idaho as a 18-point dog. The Vandals are a much better team than their 3-5 record would suggest, as they have had some bad breaks in close games against good teams. I expect their best effort here against Troy, who is still getting love from the books for that improbable win on the road over LSU. The Trojans have had a horrible time covering spreads a big reason for that is the books keep inflating their lines. Troy is just 2-8 against the number in their last 10 games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Vandals on the other hand are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me Idaho +18! |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Jets +3.5) Both of these teams have been better than I think anyone expected coming into the season. I just think Buffalo is getting a little too much respect here off their blowout win over the Raiders and the fact that they already beat these Jets by more than a touchdown earlier this season. I also don’t think the Bills are as good as advertised. Buffalo has been outgained in each of their last 6 games and when you look at their resume to this point they have a lot of wins over teams who are struggling in 2017, such as the Broncos, Falcons, Bucs and Raiders. Another big key here is the huge advantage the home teams have in these Thursday games, especially this deep into the season. Just look at last week when the Ravens came out of nowhere to lay a beating on the Dolphins 40-0. Keep in mind that Miami came into that game having won 3 straight, while the Ravens were a mere 1-4 over their last 5 games. Give me the Jets +3.5! |
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11-02-17 | Navy v. Temple +8 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Temple +8) I just don’t think Temple is getting near enough respect in this matchup. People were down on the Owls to start with, as they lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor. They made a good hire in Geof Collins, but only had 10 starters back. They got blownout at Notre Dame and USF during a 2-2 start and I think a lot of people wrote them off. They have been competitive ever since that loss to the Bulls. They lost by 7 against Houston as a 11.5-point dog and followed it up with a 34-10 win at ECU as a slim 3.5-point favorite. Then came a 24-28 loss as a 10-point favorite against UCONN and the most recent defeat at Army. A big positive sign in those games is they outgained ECU by 236, Connecticut by 225 and Army by 117. This team is trending in the right direction and will surely be fired up in a nationally televised home night game on ESPN. Another factor here that I like with Temple is they are going to be ready for Navy’s triple-option attack. They have essentially been practicing for this specific offense the past 3 weeks, as they played Army’s triple-option attack prior to their bye. The Owls also showed some very encouraging signs against the option when they played Army. They limited the Black Knights to 248 yards, which might seem like a lot, but that’s more than125 yards under Army’s average coming into that game, which was 378.4 ypg. If they can have similar success against Navy, who enters leading the country at 376.1 ypg, they not only can keep this within the number, but win the game outright. That’s because Temple’s offense should have no problem moving the ball on Navy’s defense. The Midshipmen are 76th against the run, giving up 174.7 ypg and 82nd against the pass, allowing 235.6 ypg. Owls starting quarterback Logan Marchi is out, but backup Frank Nutile was impressive in his place, throwing for 290 yards, while completing 20 of 29 attempts. I got no problem here if Nutile has to start this game and he might actually be the better option. While Marchi had thrown for 300+ in each of his previous two starts, he’s also got 8 interceptions in his last 4 starts. Temple is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs teams who struggle in the passing game, averaging 150 or fewer yards/game. They are also 8-1 ATS vs teams what bad pass defenses, allowing their opponents to complete 58% or more of their attempts. Finally, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Give me the Owls +8! |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -7) My money is on KC at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. This might seem like a big number for a division game, but I think this is an ideal spot to back the Chiefs. Not only does this feel like a must-win for Kansas City off 2 straight losses, but they got a big edge with a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 7. Any time you give Andy Reid extra time to prepare for an opponent, it typically ends bad for the other side. Note their win over the Eagles, where they led by 14 late in that game was after they played on Thursday the previous week. I know the Chiefs lost to Oakland in their last game, but they have dominated the AFC West and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the division. Give me Kansas City -7! |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -3 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
50* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) I just don't trust this Lions team against the Steelers, who might be the best team in the AFC. We pay so much attention to Pittsburgh's "Triple B's" on offense, but I've been really impressed with the defense. If you take away the two interceptions returned for a TD and a garbage TD in the final minutes in their 9-30 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers defense would be working on 4 straight games where they haven't allowed more than 14 points. Note that Jaguars game is the only one all season where they gave up more than 20-points in regulation. I expect the defense to show up in prime time game tonight and we get more than enough from Big Ben and the Steelers offense to secure the win and cover. Give me Pittsburgh -3! |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5) The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5! |
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10-29-17 | Texans +7 v. Seahawks | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +7) I'll gladly take a touchdown with the Texans on Sunday against the Seahawks. The fact that Seattle comes in having won 3 straight and the perceived home field advantage, has them overvalued in my mind. Two of those wins came against the Giants and Colts and the other was a victory over the Rams they had no business winning. The only other win is against the 49ers. Houston is playing with all kinds of confidence behind rookie QB Deshaun Watson and he's guided the Texans offense to 33 or more points in 4 straight games. It probably won't be that easy against the Seahawks, but I think Houston has the easier time moving the ball. The Texans are coming off a bye and have the talent up front to overpower a weak Seahawks offensive line. Give me Houston +7! |
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10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (49ers +13) This feels like a good spot to jump off the Eagles bandwagon. That public was all over the Eagles in their blowout win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football and will be quick to back them here against a 49ers team they love to fade. I think this will be a difficult spot for Philadelphia to show up with their “A” game. They hear what everyone is saying about them and probably feel like the 49ers are no match for them. That’s when you not only let a team stick around, but lose outright.Let’s also not discount the fact that the Eagles are playing on a short week of rest after their game on Monday Night Football and their first full game without the services of star left tackle Jason Peters. That’s a massive blow, as elite left tackles are hard to come by and chances are the offense won’t be the same from here on out. Give me the 49ers +13! |
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10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals -10.5 | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -10.5) The Colts are a complete mess right now and have been atrocious on the road. Indy has played 3 games away from home and all 3 have coming by at least 14 points. Last week they got shutout at home 27-0 by the Jaguars, as Brissett was sacked 10-times. This Bengals defense has been playing well all season. They come in 5th in the league in total defense, giving up just 289 ypg. I know the Bengals offense has struggled, but the Colts are giving up 31.7 ppg on the season and 42.7 ppg when on the road. Sitting at 2-4 this is not a game the Bengals can afford to look past and I expect them to lay it on the Colts in one of the more lopsided finals from Sunday. Give me Cincinnati -10.5! |
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10-28-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -14 | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Clemson -14) I know this looks like a big number for the Tigers to be laying against a Georgia Tech team that has played well so far this season. I just don’t think it’s going to be near enough for the Yellow Jackets to cover. Rarely do you want to be on the trendy underdog pick and that’s exactly what we have here with over 60% of the bets coming in on the Yellow Jackets. I think it’s going to get ugly in a hurry Saturday night. This isn’t the first prime time night game on Saturday that Clemson has played. The previous two have been over shortly after they started and those were on the road. The Tigers had a 33-7 lead in a 47-21 win at Louisville and were up 24-3 going into the 4th quarter at Virginia Tech. I think the only way Georgia Tech makes a game of this is if Clemson were to not show up to play and that’s just not going to happen after the loss to Syracuse. This is a statement game for the Tigers and a really bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets. It’s no secret that the Yellow Jackets need to be able to run the ball to have success with the triple-option attack. Clemson has elite talent on the defensive line that’s going to make life miserable for Georgia Tech. Keep in mind they got a lot of the same guys back from last year’s unit that held the Yellow Jackets to 124 total yards (only allowed 95 rushing yards on 38 attempts). That’s going to keep Georgia Tech from eating up the clock with long drives and allow the Tigers offense to go to work and they won’t leave any doubt after losing to the Orange. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing an elite defense that is giving up 310 or fewer yards/game and the Tigers are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team that averages 200+ rushing yards/game. Give me the Tigers -14! |
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10-28-17 | Nebraska v. Purdue -4.5 | 25-24 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -4.5) I know the Boilermakers laid an egg last week on the road against Rutgers, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm and Nebraska might be one of the most overrated. If you look at the box score from last week’s game against the Scarlet Knights, you will see the better team lost that game. Purdue had 474 total yards to Rutgers 217 and a 25 to 8 edge in first downs. This is a team that on the season is outgaining opponents by nearly 17 yards/game. A big improvement over last year when they were outgained on average by 100 yards/game. I’m well aware that the Cornhuskers are coming off a bye. I just don’t think it’s going to matter. Mike Riley isn’t a good fit for this program and it’s only a matter of time before he’s out the door. That’s a tough situation for everyone involved and my two-cents is that it will be UCF head coach Scott Frost in Lincoln for the 2018 season. What can’t be overlooked here is the time this game is being played. Night games come with a whole different atmosphere and more times than not it’s a big advantage for the home team. I expect that to be the case here, as this is as excited the Boilermaker fan base has been about their football program in over a decade. It’s also not just motivation and coaching that has me like Purdue in this spot. I love the matchup here. Purdue’s offense is better than people think. They had the fluke game last week where they had just 12 points on nearly 500 yards and a combined 19 against two of the best defenses in the country in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nebraska ranks 70th or worse against both the run and the pass. I also don’t think people realize how good this Purdue defense has been. The Boilermakers are 49th in the country, allowing just 369 ypg. That’s not even the most impressive stat. They are allowing a mere 19.3 ppg against teams that are scoring on average 31.8 ppg. Give me the Boilermakers -4.5! |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M UNDER 55.5 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5) I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5. Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides. Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here. The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg). UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5 |
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10-28-17 | Indiana -4.5 v. Maryland | 39-42 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Indiana -4.5) I think the value here is clearly with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against Maryland. You could make a pretty strong argument that Indiana is the best 3-4 team in the country. Their 4 losses have come against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State, who are a combined 24-4 on the season. They were also competitive in all of those games. They had 2nd half leads against everyone but Penn State and only trailed the Nittany Lions by 14 at the half. Indiana has also taken care of business against lesser opponents, winning 34-17 at Virginia and 52-17 against Georgia Southern. Maryland started the season with that big road win over Texas, but are just 2-4 since and have lost 3 straight. The Terps looked to be in great shape with two dynamic quarterbacks, but both suffered season-ending injuries and while 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager has been serviceable, he’s also completing just 49.3% of his attempts and lacks the running threat that made the top two guys on the depth chart so good. I just don’t see the Terrapins being able to generate enough offense here against a very good Indiana defense. I’ve already mentioned some of the elite teams that Indiana has played and that only makes it that much more impressive that they are sitting 29th in the country in total defense, allowing just 342 yards/game. In comparison, Maryland is 106th giving up 439 yards/game. There is a slight concern here with the fact that Indiana is coming off such a heartbreaking loss, but I think the fact that they are still searching for their first Big Ten win of the season is going to have them locked in from the start in this one. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5! |
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10-28-17 | UCLA v. Washington -17 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
100* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Washington -17) I absolutely love this spot for the Huskies. Washington had won 5 straight by at least 27 points before that shocking 7-13 loss to Arizona State. With the Sun Devils crushing Utah on the road last week, that doesn't look so bad. I think more than anything the Huskies were caught sleeping and ASU came to play at home in a night game. I look for Washington to bounce back in a big way at home against the Bruins. UCLA is not a good team and while they come in off what looks like an impressive 31-14 win over Oregon, the Ducks are complete mess right now with Herbert sidelined. Clearly if they only put up 14 on this horrible Bruins defense. Washington defense was still top notch in the loss to Arizona State and have not allowed more than 14 points in a game this season. UCLA hasn't seen a defense anywhere close to as talented as the Huskies and I think they struggle to put points on the board. As for the Huskies offense, I expect them to put up a big number here, which is why I got no problem laying the 17 points. UCLA has allowed 40+ points in 4 of their 7 games and are giving up an average of 51 ppg on the road. All of this and I haven't even mentioned the advantage Washington has coming off a bye. An extra week for Chris Petersen and his staff to get his team ready should have this one over in a hurry. Give me the Huskies -17! |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | 38-39 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio St -6) I’m going to lay the points with the Buckeyes in this one. Ohio State hasn’t suffered too many losses since Urban Meyer took over back in 2012. In fact, they have been beat just 7 times and that includes the earlier loss to Oklahoma. They only time they have suffered multiple losses in the same season is when they have lost their bowl game. When you rarely lose, you don’t forget about the times you do and that loss to the Nittany Lions last year is fresh in the minds of these Ohio State players. I think the Buckeyes are coming into this contest to make a statement, much like Penn State did this past week against the Wolverines. You also can’t discount the edge Ohio State has coming off a bye. Meyer is one of the elite coaches in the country and great coaches know how to use that extra time to prepare to their advantage. In his career as a head coach, Meyer’s teams are 24-8 ATS after a bye week. That just really puts Penn State behind the 8-ball, as they got to somehow find a way to match the intensity they had last week at home against Michigan. Something that’s not easy to do away from home and it’s a spot where James Franklin coached teams have struggled. In his time here with Penn State and with Vanderbilt, teams coached by Franklin are just 2-10 ATS in road games when playing against a top level team that’s won more than 75% of their games. I just think the home crowd combined with the extra time to prepare is going to make it hard for Penn State to keep this game close. Ohio State has looked like a completely different team since losing to Oklahoma and they have the talent up front to quiet Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley. The Buckeyes are allowing 2.9 yards/carry on the season and that’s against teams that are averaging 5.0 yards/carry. They are also rushing for 1.4 yards/carry more than what their opponent is allowing on average. If the Nittany Lions aren’t careful, this could get ugly. Give me the Buckeyes -6! |
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10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +14.5) I liked Florida even when this line was less than 2 touchdowns, but now that we are getting two touchdowns and the hook, I can't pass up on the value here with the Gators. I know Georgia has been playing lights out and Florida has been a bit of a mess this year with all the injuries and players getting suspended. You just can't underestimate the underdog in a huge rivalry like this. Last time we had a double-digit favorite in the series was 2014, when Georgia was laying 11.5. Florida won that game 38-20. The biggest key here is think the Gators defense can keep the Bulldogs offense in check. For the most part the Bulldogs have been able to just run the ball down the throats of the opposition. The only time they weren't able to was against Notre Dame and they managed just 19 points. I think there's a good chance they keep Georgia under 21 and that means we just need Florida to muster up a mere 7 points to give us a great shot at the cover. Note that the Gators have scored at least 20 in each of the last 4 games in the series. While both teams are off a bye, it's worth noting that Florida is 6-1 ATS last 7 when they get two weeks to prepare for the opposition. They are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games when coming off a conference loss by 7 points or less. Give me the Gators +14.5! |
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10-27-17 | Tulane +11 v. Memphis | Top | 26-56 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (Tulane +11) I would ride the hot hand and back the Green Wave getting 10.5-points against the Tigers. Tulane didn’t look great early last week at home against USF, but you have to love how this team continued to fight. They turned a 27-point deficit into a 1-score game in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. I think they bring that same fight here against a ranked Memphis team. With a 6-1 record and win over UCLA, I understand why the Tigers are ranked in the Top 25, but I don’t think this team is one of the 25 best in the country. In fact, Memphis is a few bad breaks away from potentially having a losing record. They got 3 wins by 6-points or less and another by just 8 at home against ULM. The best team they have faced is UCF and they lost by 27 on the road. I not only think Tulane can keep it close, but an outright win isn’t out of the question. Tulane’s defense didn’t look good against USF, but a lot of that had to do with the play of star quarterback Quinton Flowers and his ability to turn a broken play into a big gain. While Memphis has a quality QB in Riley Ferguson, he doesn’t provide that same threat on the ground. Ferguson and the Tigers come in with the 10th ranked passing attack at 333.4 ypg, but will face a talented Tulane secondary that ranks 29th against the pass, giving up 190.6 ypg. Keep in mind they are allowing less than 200 yards with giving up 434 yards through the air in one game against Oklahoma. On the other side of the ball, there’s reason to believe the Green Wave can have success. Tulane has the 12th ranked rushing offense at 266.0 ypg and will be up against a Memphis defense that ranks 109th against the run, allowing 212.7 ypg. Look for the Green Wave to play keep away from the Tigers offense by grinding out long possessions. That should allow them to keep this came close and it makes those points that much more valuable. Give me the Green Wave +11! |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/RAVENS BOOKIE ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens -3) I think the perception here is that the Dolphins are better off with Moore as their starter, because of the horrible rep that Cutler gets. If that was the case, Miami wouldn’t have begged Cutler to come out of retirement and made Moore the starter for Week 1. I’m not saying Moore can’t hold the fort down while Cutler is out, I just don’t think the line has been adjusted enough for the injury. I know the Ravens defense hasn’t been playing well, but I really like this spot for Baltimore’s stop unit. Their biggest problem has been stopping the run. After allowing 100+ to the Vikings they are now dead last in the NFL, giving up 145.3 ypg. They did get back a big part of their run defense in defensive tackle Brandon Williams and I don’t see this unit continuing to play as poorly as they have. It should be able to hold it's own against a Miami offense that is 29th in rushing at just 81.7 ypg. If the Dolphins can’t get the running game going, this could be a long game for an offense that is also just 30th in passing. For as much flack as the Ravens offense gets for it’s pedestrian numbers, they are averaging more yards/game than Miami. When you factor in home field advantage, which is absolutely huge in these Thursday night games, and the fact that this feels like a must-win game for the Ravens, I think this is as good a spot as you will find to back Baltimore. As the head coach of the Ravens, John Harbaugh and his team have gone an impressive 15-4 ATS after a stretch where they failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 and they fall in that spot tonight. Give me Baltimore -3! |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State -103 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia State -103) The first thing that most people are going to see when they look at this game is the result for both teams against Troy. They will see that South Alabama beat the Trojans 19-8 and that the Panthers lost 10-34. That will be more than enough for them to back the Jaguars, but my money is on the Panthers to find a way to win this game at home. What people will fail to look at with the Jaguars win over Troy, is that it was the Trojans first game after that improbable win at LSU. Good chance Troy went into that contest a little overconfident. On the flip side, the Panthers got Troy coming off that loss, so they got the Trojans best effort. I just don’t feel that there’s a whole that separates these two teams and if anything Georgia State should be favored at home. These two have also both played ULM. While each beat the Warhawks by 10, the Panthers outgained ULM by 239 total yards and South Alabama had just a 61 yard edge. The other thing here is that South Alabama’s offense is one of the worst in the country. The Jaguars rank 102nd in scoring at 23.4 ppg and 107th in total offense at just 345 ypg. It’s even worse on the road, where they are only averaging 20.4 ppg and 310 ypg. Georgia State is averaging just 20.3 ppg and 383.8 ypg on the season, but are scoring 28.0 ppg with 447 ypg and 6.1 yards/play inside the Sun Belt. As for the Panthers offense, I think they can make enough plays here to secure the win. Georgia State has a strong passing attack, which comes in 34th in the country at 269.7 ypg. They figure to hit that and more against a South Alabama secondary that ranks 117th against the pass, giving up 272.7 ypg. The Jaguars have also not been great in this spot. They are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 6 or less days of rest, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a cover and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 on the road after a SU win. Georgia State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after allowing 31+ points in each of their last 2 games. Give me the Panthers -103! |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! |
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10-22-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals +5.5) For as well as the Steelers played against the Chiefs last week, there’s reason to be concerned that they only won by 6-points. Had it not been for what should have been an interception bouncing off a Chief player and into the hands of Antonio Brown, which he ran in for a TD, they actually might have lost that game. While Le’Veon Bell was fantastic with 179 yards on 32 attempts, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look great and hasn’t really played well in 2017. I think the Steelers offense is in for a long day here against a stingy Cincinnati defense. The Bengals come in ranked 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 262.8 ypg. They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 ppg. The run defense has been exceptional the past few weeks, which also coincided with return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who missed the first 3 games with a suspension. Cincinnati has allowed just 63.7 ypg in their last 3, holding the Bills strong rushing attack to just 82 yards in their last game. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Bell, but I think he has a hard time getting to 100 yards unless he breaks a big run. It’s not just the defense that has come alive for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has looked so much better since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. Under Labor the Bengals are averaging 25.0 ppg and 346.3 ypg. Note they scored a combined 9 points and averaged just 258 yards/game under Zampese. The other big key here is that Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which I believe should have this spread a lot closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The thing is, even though the Bengals are clearly on the rise, Pittsburgh is such a public team the books are going to take advantage of that an inflate the line. Give me the Bengals +5.5! |
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 38 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Dolphins -3) It’s not easy to beat the same team in your division twice in the same year. So while the Jets won by 14 at home over Miami in Week 3, I think this turns into a blowout the other way. I’m still not buying into the Jets being as good as their 3-3 record would indicate. Outside of their win over the Dolphins at home, they beat the Browns on the road and snuck out an overtime win against the Jaguars at home. Sure they played New England tough, but that was at home. Outside of 3-point win at Cleveland, the road hasn’t been kind to New York, which lost by 9 at Buffalo in Week 1 and by 25 at Oakland in Week 2. Adding to this, is the fact that the Jets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. I also think this is a big letdown spot for the Jets. They put everything they had into beating New England, who they despise. A loss that has to be tough to swallow given they were up 14-0, outgained the Patriots 408-375 and turned it over 3 times. Those are the kind of defeats that can be difficult to bounce back from, especially when going up against a team they beat without much problem just a few weeks ago. The Miami offense hasn’t been very good to start the season, but that was to be expected after they just picked Jay Cutler up off the straight and made him their starter in the middle of training camp. I think they may have found something in the 2nd half of last week’s game against the Falcons, where they scored on all 4 possessions to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit. They should come out with a ton of confidence on that side of the ball this week. The Jets are a miserable 0-6 ATS under head coach Todd Bowles in road games after playing their previous game against a division opponent and have lost these games by an average of 15.3 points. On the flip side of this, the Dolphins are a strong 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when revenging a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns +6 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +6) As difficult as it might be to stomach the Browns right now, I think there's enough value here to warrant a play on Cleveland. I don't think this team is going to go 0-16 like everyone thinks and the Titans haven't exactly played up to their potential this season. It's a spot they have been horrific against the number under Mularky. They are 3-11 ATS under him against teams with a losing record, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs an opponent that gives up 24+ ppg and 0-6 ATS after a contest in which they gained 400+ yards. Cleveland's defense isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest, as turnovers by the offense have really put them in some bad spots. They are actually allowing fewer yards than the Titans per game and are yielding just 3 yards/rush. Titans are a team that really relies on the running game, making this a good matchup. I also got a sneaky feeling we get a good game here out of rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who is getting another chance after he was bench thanks to the Kevin Hogan injury. Titans secondary is a good one for him to attack, as they are allowing opposing teams roughly 35 yards more game than they average on the year. Give me the Browns +6 and don't hate a little side action on the money line! |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5) I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark. Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season. Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg. Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground. UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5! |
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10-21-17 | Pittsburgh v. Duke -8 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Duke -8) I think we are actually getting value here with the Blue Devils, as I think they should be closer two a two touchdown favorite. This is the perfect time to jump back on Duke, who enters having lost 3 straight and failed to cover in all 3. They were a lot more competitive than the final looked in a 31-6 defeat to Miami at home. They then lost by 7 on the road against an improved Virginia team and underrated Florida State team. I think Duke is a lot closer to the top half of the league than people think. Keep in mind they rolled Northwestern at home 41-17. Pitt on the other hand is near the bottom half of the league this season. They are just 2-5 and the two wins have come against Rice and Youngstown St. They just lost by 18 at home to NC State and are also without starting quarterback Max Browne, who was one of the bright spots offensively, completing 71% of his attempts. Even when Browne was playing well the offense has not been anything close to what we saw a year ago under coordinator Matt Canada. He left for LSU and Pitt's only game this season with more than 30 points is against Rice, who is 114th in scoring defense (36.3 ppg). Backup quarterbacks Ben Dinucci and Kenny Pickett have both looked bad. That's not good as this Duke defense isn't going to let them run the ball. The Blue Devils rank 16th in the nation against the run, giving up just 108.0 ypg. Pitts defense isn't good enough to be on the field the entire game. Give me Duke -8! |
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10-21-17 | Purdue v. Rutgers OVER 47 | 12-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47) I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10. The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game. I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here. The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg). OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47! |
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10-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State -7 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
100* NCAAF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR (FSU -7) This might seem like a big number for FSU to be laying, even at home, against a team that beat them by 43 points last year. However, it’s that embarrassing loss last season that has me siding with the Seminoles in this one. Keep in mind that win last year came with Florida State ranked #2. That’s also one of the rare times that the Seminoles were on the losing end of a blowout loss. You can bet that FSU has had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released. Louisville got a lot of love coming into the season because of the fact they were returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at quarterback. While Jackson has continued to put incredible numbers, the rest of the team has not played up to their potential. Especially the defense, which is giving up almost a touchdown more per game. I mean they just let Boston College of all teams score 45 with 555 yards of total offense and 27 first downs. I know this isn’t the same Florida State team without Deondre Francois, but there’s still a ton of talent on this team. We are also now in the 5th start for freshman James Blackmon. He showed some flashes and this could be his breakout game against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed 290+ yards four times already this season. They also have allowed 290+ yards on the ground twice, so it’s not like Blackmon will have to do it all. At the same time, I think we are going to see Florida State’s defense show up in a big way for this one. A lot of the guys who will take the field got it handed to them by Jackson and the Cardinals. They are much improved on that side and come in ranked 28th in the country in total defense. Not to mention we have seen Jackson and the Louisville offense struggle against the better defenses they have faced. FSU is 13-4-1 ATS after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Louisville is now 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the Seminoles -7! |
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10-21-17 | Iowa State +7.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa St +7.5) The decision to hire Matt Campbell is paying off sooner than expected. After going just 3-9 in his first year on the job, Campbell has ISU sitting at 4-2 through their first 6 games and looking every bit the part of a bowl team. Keep in mind they had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter of an OT loss at home to Iowa and were right there with Texas at home in their other defeat. This team is playing with all kinds of confidence right now and I look for them to not only go into Texas Tech and keep it close, but win this game outright. While ISU is riding a wave of momentum, the Red Raiders will likely have a hard time picking themselves off the mat after blowing that 18-point 2nd half lead against the Mountaineers. While neither team is great defensively, Iowa State comes in a respectable 42nd in total defense, giving up just 356 ypg (nearly 100 yards less than what they allowed last year). Texas Tech on the other hand is 101st in total defense, giving up 430.5 ypg. There’s also a great system in play favoring a play on the Cyclones. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win by 10 or more are 48-17 (74%) against the spread when matchup up with an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Iowa State is also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, while the Red Raiders are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that has a winning road record (ISU is 2-0 on the road). Give me the Cyclones +7.5! |
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10-20-17 | Air Force v. Nevada +7 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
50* NCAAF MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Nevada +7) I really like what I have seen out of this Nevada team the past two weeks. It would have been easy for the Wolf Pack to just throw in the towel after their 0-5 start, but they have continued to play well. They nearly won outright as a 24-point dog, losing at Colorado State 42-44. A game Nevada has to be wondering how they lost. The Wolfpack had 42 points and a 11-point lead with just over 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They got their first win in their previous game against Hawaii as a 5.5-point dog. Even though they let one get away against Colorado State, I think the confidence level is high right now. Keep in mind the schedule really didn’t set up well to start the year. They had to open at Northwestern, host a very good Toledo team and play both Washington State and Fresno State on the road. As for the Falcons, I’m not really sure they deserve to be a near touchdown favorite on the road. Air Force is fortunate to not be 1-5 with their only win over a FCS program, but UNLV was nice enough to blow a 27-point lead. That doesn’t get me excited about this team, who I think is still getting a lot of respect for how good they have been in previous years. The Falcons won 10-games last year and have won 28 over the last 3, but only had 7 starters back for 2017. My big concern with this team, especially on the road, is their defense. Air Force ranks 126th out of 130 FBS teams against the run, giving up 255.3 ypg. Opposing teams are averaging a ridiculous 6.2 yards/carry. That’s with the Falcons only giving up 55 yards on 28 attempts in their opener against VMI. Nevada’s rushing attack is ranked 100th, but they have topped 200 yards twice this season, including 268 two weeks ago against Hawaii. This is also a good matchup for the Wolf Pack defensively. Nevada’s secondary has been used and abused this season, as they come in allowing 326.1 ypg (128th). They catch a breather here, as Air Force averages a mere 6 completions a game compared to 62 rushing attempts. The Wolfpack’s run defense isn’t great, but it is giving up less yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. I think they can make enough stops here to not only keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright. Give me Nevada +7! |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 46 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! |
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10-19-17 | UL-Lafayette +13 v. Arkansas State | 3-47 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
40* THURSDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS KNOCKOUT (Lafayette +13) The Ragin' Cajuns aren't going to take to kindly to being a double-digit dog against a team they beat last year at home as an underdog. Mark Hudspeth is in year seven with this team and doesn't get near the respect he deserves. Lafayette has a big scheduling edge here, as they last played last Thursday and Arkansas State played on Saturday. That extra time to recover and prepare are huge this time of year. I also don't think the Red Wolves should be laying this many points with how bad they are defensively. They come in giving up 449 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. On the flip side of this, Lafayette's defense has really turned it on the last two weeks. I think they keep this close and wouldn't be shocked if the won outright. Give me the Ragin' Cajuns +13! |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! |
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10-15-17 | Chargers v. Raiders -4 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
50* NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Raiders -4) I absolutely love this spot for the Raiders at home against division rival Chargers. All the hype around Oakland has took a big hit with their current 3-game losing streak, but they are getting back starting quarterback Derek Carr against a Chargers team they have beat 4 straight times. Los Angeles was able to avoid an 0-5 start by beating another winless team in the Giants in Week 5, but were fortunate to do so, as they trailed 17-22 going in the 4th quarter. I know the Chargers have been competitive despite the 1-4 record, but this is a tough spot playing on the road for a second straight week against a desperate Raiders team that really can't afford to lose this game with how well the Chiefs and Broncos are playing in their division. I think this is the week that Marshawn Lynch and that Raiders running game gets going, as they go up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last vs the run, allowing 161.2 ypg. That's only going to make it that much easier on Carr in his first game back from injury. This San Diego offense is also nothing special and continue to struggle to run the ball. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC. Give me the Raiders -4! |
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10-15-17 | Bucs -1 v. Cardinals | 33-38 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bucs -1) I really like this Bucs team and not the least bit concerned with their poor showing at home against the Patriots in Week 5. New England's game plan was top notch on a short week, as Belichick and his staff took full advantage of a Tampa Bay offense that doesn't change things up from week to week. I also think Winston and the rest of the team put way too much pressure on themselves in that game. I expect a much better showing here from Tampa Bay against a struggling Arizona team that I think is still getting too much respect for what they have done in the past. The Cardinals two wins this season are against the Colts and 49ers and they were lucky to win both, as both victories came in overtime. All 3 of their losses have come by double-digits and i just don't see it getting better, even with the recent trade for AP, who isn't expected to play this week. Another key here is the Bucs have had some extra time to not only prepare for this game, but also get healthy after playing on Thursday last week. That's a big edge that often gets overlooked. I think it's more than enough for Tampa Bay to get the win on the road. Cardinals are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-4 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points. Give me the Bucs -1! |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins -10 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins -10) I don’t love laying this many points in the NFL, but I just feel the situation here is too good to pass up. On one side you have a Washington team that is returning from their bye in a game they has to feel like a must win to keep pace in the NFC East. Especially with road games against the Eagles and Seahawks sandwiched around a home game against the Cowboys in their next three. As for the 49ers, they have to be running on fumes right now. San Francisco is playing their 3rd straight road game and with each trip they have had to go further east, starting with Arizona, before going to Indy and now Washington. It doesn’t come up often, but rarely do teams play well in that 3rd game of a 3-game trip. Especially if it’s a poor team like the 49ers, who are clearly in rebuilding mode. The fact that the Redskins weren’t expected to do much coming into the year and they are sitting at just 2-2, I don’t think the public will be running to back them here. I personally have really been impressed with this team. Their two losses are against arguably the two teams playing the best football early on in the Chiefs and Eagles. While they lost both by more than a touchdown, the final score doesn’t do justice to how well they played. In both games they fumbled and let the defense return it for a TD in the final two minutes. The Washington defense has really caught my eye and they rank in the top half of the league against both the run (10th, 88.8 ypg) and pass (15th, 222.5 ypg). That unit should be able to slow down a weak 49ers offense that has scored 15 or less in 3 of their 5 games. San Francisco’s offense ranks 20th in both rushing and passing. This is also not a good 49ers defense. San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run (19th, 116.6 ypg) and the pass (26th, 249.8 ypg). Keep in mind the schedule has been favorable to this point. The best offense they have faced is the Rams and they were torched for 41 points. Redskins rank 8th in total offense and should be well-prepared for what the 49ers like to do. Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 ATS after their last 5 games following a game where they didn’t cover. Give me the Redskins -10! |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +10) I just feel the books have inflated this line too much as the public wants nothing to do with the winless Browns and are drawn to rookie sensation Deshaun Watson. I just think this is too many points for Houston to be laying after losing two of their best defensive players in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Keep in mind they were already without starting inside linebacker Brian Cushing and corner Kevin Johnson. They will also be missing starting safety Corey Moore for this game and linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney are both banged up. What people don't realize is this Browns team is better than the 0-5 record would indicate. What's really hurt them is turnovers and the problem was starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer. He's been benched in favor of Kevin Hogan. While Hogan isn't the long-term solution, he played great in relief last week against the Jets and knows how to protect the football. Cleveland also has a very underrated defense that should only get better now that No. 1 pick Myles Garrett is a full go. The Browns rank 5th in the NFL, giving up just 305 ypg and have excelled against the run, allowing just 76.6 ypg. Watson and the Texans offense has benefited from going up against a couple of defense in the Pats and Chiefs that give up a ton of yards. KC comes in 27th in total defense (366 ypg) and NE is dead last (447.2 ypg). Not only do I like the Browns chances of keeping it close enough to cover, but I give them a decent shot to get their first win of the season. Give me Cleveland +10! |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Patriots -9) I would love to what the odds would have been that the Patriots and Jets would have the same record going into their Week 6 showdown. I believe it has New England showing some value and that’s hard to do when you are talking about a near double-digit road favorite against a division rival. I’ll be the first to say that I didn’t see the Jets winning 3-games all season, but I’m also not going to let a 3-game winning streak against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns change my thought process on this team. I still believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league and wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win another game. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. I just don’t see the Jets being able to generate enough offense to keep this close. I know the Patriots defense has been bad to start the year, but they were a lot better last time out against the Bucs. Holding a potent Tampa Bay offense to just 14 points. One of the reasons for New England’s poor start defensively is a schedule the has had them face Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. They finally catch a break here going up against Josh McCown, who has a mere 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Under his guidance the offense has scored 23 or less in all 5 games. As for the Jets defense and their strong numbers, they have faced Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Carr is the only one of those who you would consider an above-average QB and he went 23 of 28 for 230 yards and 3 scores in a 25-point blowout win. Even with the home crowd supporting them, I don’t see the Jets keeping the Patriots offense in check here. I also like the fact that the Patriots haven’t got off to a great start. Not that Belichick would let them look past any opponent, they should be 100% locked in for a division matchup. You also have to factor in the advantage Belichick and his staff have here with New England getting a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week. All signs point to a lopsided win and cover for the Patriots in this one. Give me New England -9! |
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10-14-17 | Oregon +10.5 v. Stanford | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +10.5) The Ducks are worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Cardinal. Sometimes it’s a star player like Stanford’s Bryce Love that can lead to the entire team being overvalued. I think that’s exactly what is happening here. At the same time, I think now is the time to jump on Oregon after an embarrassing loss at home to Washington State. It will be hard for the public to back the Ducks given how much the offense struggled in the first game without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. What can be overlooked is how good that Washington State defense is playing. The Cougars are 11th in the country, giving up 275.5 ypg and are exceptional in the secondary, holding teams to just 146.3 ypg. That makes it really hard to play catch up like Oregon was forced to do in that game. Stanford is known for being a program that excels on the defensive side of the ball. You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time they allowed more than 28 ppg on this side of the ball. While they currently rank 55th, allowing 24.5 ppg, they have given up 42 to USC and 34 to UCLA. The more concerning numbers are that they rank 91st in the country against the run (182 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Prior to getting completely shutdown by Washington State, Oregon was averaging 537.5 yards/game. Even after the poor showing they still come in 19th in rushing (239.3 ypg) and 50th in passing (254.7 ypg). The thing to keep in mind is the reason they had to start a true freshman against the Cougars, is their top two guys both got hurt the game before. While Herbert is still out, his backup Taylor Alie has been cleared to play. Alie has looked good when he’s got to play. He came in and completed 9 of 13 for 41 yards and also rushed 3 times for 17 yards. I think we see the Ducks offense return to form in this one. As for Oregon’s defense and stopping Love, I think they can at least slow them down. Considering how bad the Ducks were defensively last year, it will probably surprise a lot of people to learn that they are currently 10th in the nation, holding teams to just 93.7 ypg. Teams are averaging just 2.7 yards/carry. Last week against Utah’s defense, which came into that game only giving up 87 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry, Love totaled just 152 yards on 20 attempts. Add in the fact that these rivalry games can go either way and the Ducks with big time revenge, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Oregon win this game outright. Give me the Ducks +10.5! |
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10-14-17 | Washington v. Arizona State +17.5 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS BLOODBATH (Arizona St +17.5) We are getting big time value here with the Sun Devils as a 3-score underdog at home against the Huskies. Playing at home under the lights is special against any opponent. The atmosphere really gets amped in these games when it’s against a team like Washington that is the defending conference champion and sitting undefeated at No. 5 in the country. The reason you don’t hear much about the Huskies in the media, is because they are one of the few highly ranked teams that haven’t played anybody. The schedule so far includes Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and Cal. Those 3 conference opponents are currently a combined 0-9 in league play and a Rutgers team they struggled with in the opener just lost 56-0 to Ohio State. I’m not saying Washington isn’t a good team, I just think they are getting way too much respect here. The fact they are a Top 5 team and have covered 3 straight, the public will be on them here, which is why we are getting a line that I feel is all most a touchdown too high. Arizona State might have a losing record at 2-3, but there 3 losses have come against San Diego State, Texas Tech and Stanford, all of which are currently ranked in the Top 25. The big key is they were competitive in each of those games. They also have a big win over Oregon, who came in ranked at the time they beat them. The defense for Washington has put up some great numbers, but a lot of that has to do with who they have played. Three of their opponents rank outside the Top 100 in total offense and that’s not include the FCS opponent they faced. What they did to Cal last week was impressive, but they caught the Golden Bears in a horrible spot, as they just had nothing left after playing their previous 3 against Ole Miss, USC and Oregon. I’m confident that the Sun Devils will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. Arizona State ranks 23rd in the country in passing at 297.4 ypg and just rushed for more than 200 yards last week against Stanford. At the same time, I think the defense can hold their own against a Huskies offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard as much as you would expect against that cupcake schedule. Add in the fact that Arizona State is coming off a bye and I think we could see an outright win here by the Sun Devils. Note they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road cover where they lost as an underdog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games with 2+ weeks to prepare for an opponent. Give me the Sun Devils +17.5! |
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10-14-17 | Cincinnati +24 v. South Florida | 3-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Cincinnati +24) Cincinnati is worth a look here as a huge underdog against the Bulls. USF couldn't be more overvalued right now. The Bulls come in ranked No. 18 in the country with a perfect 5-0 record and have covered 3 straight. During this stretch they beat Illinois by 24 as a 16.5-point favorite, Temple by 36 as a 17.5-point favorite and ECU by 30 as a 21.5-point favorite. You might have noticed something, all of those wins where they covered in blowout fashion have come against some awful teams. Illinois is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, Temple is a mess without Matt Rhule in charge and East Carolina has 4 losses by 20 or more points, including a 20-point loss to James Madison in their opener. USF's other two games are against San Jose State and Stony Brook. As you can see, the Bulls have played nobody good. To back this point even more, the teams USF has played this season are only averaging 3.1 yards/carry and completing 52.2% of their passes. Now the Bearcats aren't a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are hands down the best team USF has faced this season. The fact that's it's been so easy for the Bulls to this point is going to make it hard for them to give Cincinnati the respect they deserve. I think the Bearcats sneak up on the South Florida and make this a hard fought game that isn't decided for good until the 4th quarter. Give me the Bearcats +24! |
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10-14-17 | Purdue +17 v. Wisconsin | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Purdue +17) I have really liked what I have seen from Purdue in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm and fully expect them to give Wisconsin all they can handle on Saturday. The Boilermakers matched last year’s win total with their win and cover over Minnesota at home. A game they managed to win despite posting a -2 turnover margin. They have shown they are more than capable hanging with the top teams, as they were in it until the end against Louisville and had a 2nd half lead against Michigan. Their two other wins at home against Ohio by 23 and at Missouri by 32 are also impressive. I don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to keep it within 17 against the Badgers. The thing with Wisconsin is they have played a very easy schedule to this point. Not a single one of their opponents they have beat currently has a winning record. They have especially had it easy on the defensive side of the ball, as 4 of their 5 opponents rank in bottom 50 in total offense and the lone exception is FAU, who has padded their offensive stats against some bad teams of late. The biggest thing you need to be able to do to move the ball on the Badgers is be able to throw the ball, as you just aren’t going to run it down their throats with much success. Purdue ranks 40th in the nation in passing at 265.2 ypg. I think the Boilermakers are going to catch Wisconsin off guard and put together some scoring drives to keep this close. The other big thing here is while it’s not elite, the Boilermakers defense has played well given they have played a pretty tough schedule so far. Purdue is holding teams almost a full yard under their average per play. In comparison, Wisconsin is giving up 4.4 yards/play against teams that average 4.5. Wisconsin’s offense isn’t anything to get excited about. I know the numbers are decent, but the best defense they have faced statistically is Nebraska and that Cornhuskers defense isn’t anything to write home about. They gave nearly 500 yards and 36 points to Arkansas State and 42 points and 566 yards to Oregon. Purdue should be able to hold their own here and force the Badgers to work to get the ball in the end zone. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS under head coach Paul Chryst in home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite and Purdue is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off a game against a conference opponent. Give me the Boilermakers +17! |
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10-14-17 | BYU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 87 h 19 m | Show |
50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg. They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot. I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark. The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is. The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here. Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry. The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -3) Carson Wentz and the Eagles are getting all kinds of love right now and a lot of people are saying they are the best team in the NFC. I don’t think that’s going to sit well with Carolina, who I’m surprised isn’t getting more love given they are just two seasons removed from going 15-1 and playing in the Super Bowl. I was really high on Carolina coming into this season and expected them to return close to the form that had them playing on the final Sunday of the season two years ago. The offense didn’t start out great, but have found a nice rhythm the last two games, scoring 33 on the Patriots and 27 on the Lions. Newton has been a big reason for the uptick in production, throwing for 671 yards with 6 TDs to just 1 INT. In his previous 3 games he had only thrown for 566 yards with a mere 2 TDs and 4 INT. Keep in mind he came into the season at less than 100% recovering from offseason surgery on his throwing arm. For those that don’t remember, Carolina led the NFL in scoring at 31.3 ppg during that magical 2015 season. Not to take anything away from the Eagles and their strong start, but they come in having beat the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals over the last 3 weeks. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 on the year. Their best win coming at Washington in Week 1. I think this is a game where we see Wentz and the Eagles struggle on the road against one of the top tier teams in the league. Carolina’s defense is one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Panthers come in 6th against the run (79.8 ypg) and are 5th against the pass (194.2 ypg). This will be their first game against a team that ranks inside the Top 10 against both the run and the pass. Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 25-15 in their last 40 against a strong offensive team that is averaging 24+ points/game. Give me the Panthers -3! |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
40* S ALABAMA/TROY ATS KNOCKOUT (South Alabama +17) This line has been inflated on Troy with the Trojans coming in off that big win over LSU. Keep in mind that South Alabama was only a 11.5-point dog at Louisiana Tech in their last game. While they didn’t cover, they could have won that game outright had they been a little more efficient in the redone. The fact that both teams didn’t play this past weekend, also favors the Jaguars and this big spread. Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for the opponent, which typically leads to a lower-scoring game. The less scoring there is, the greater the chance South Alabama keeps this within the number. Another key here is that I think the Jaguars are better than their record would indicate. You certainly can’t blame them for losing at Ole Miss and at home to Oklahoma State. Same thing with their loss at Louisiana Tech. I like what Joey Jones is doing here and expect this team to come out and lay it all on the line in one of the rare times they get to play in a nationally televised game. Troy is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a losing road record. Factor in that each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 14 or less and I think the smart play here is to take the points. Give me the Jaguars +17! |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/BEARS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears +4) I think the Bears should have been starting Trubisky from the start. Glennon has been putting Chicago behind the 8-ball just about every game with his inability to protect the football. I'm not saying Trubisky will play mistake free, but he's going to provide a spark to an offense that has one of the league's better rushing attacks and a very underrated defense. Minnesota gets back Bradford, but loses an even bigger piece to their offense in rookie RB Cook. It was already going to be tough getting the running game going against a solid Chicago front. I think the Vikings have a lot of 3rd and long situations that's going to let the Bears defense get off the field and keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright. Give me the Bears +4! |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/TEXANS SNF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +1) This is the week to go against the Chiefs, who have quickly become one of the public’s favorites teams to back early this season. While Kansas City is undefeated and one of the best teams in the league, they aren’t going to go 16-0. Chances are they will lose a few on the road and this has the makings of one of those spots. Houston is playing with a ton of confidence behind Watson, who finally has that offense playing on par with their defense. They are going to be extremely motivated to keep it going at home in a prime time game against the team with the best record in the league. The Chiefs on the other hand will be playing on short rest after that huge home game on MNF and might find it difficult to not look ahead to their home game against the Steelers next week. Adding to this is the fact that KC is just 1-4 ATS when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday the week before. The Chiefs defense is going to give up some yards. They rank 26th in the NFL, allowing 359.5 ypg. They have also struggled to keep quarterbacks from picking up big gains on the ground. In fact, twice the opposing team has led their team in rushing against KC. Carson Wentz had 55 yards on 4 attempts in Week 2 and Kirk Cousins went for 38 on 7 attempts. Watson is more athletic than both of those guys and I think his ability to scramble will have Houston’s offense putting up another big number on the scoreboard. Kansas City’s offense is playing well and will likely do some damage here, I just think they could struggle to finish off drives against this Houston defense that ranks 5th in the league, giving up just 291 ypg. Keep in mind the Chiefs could be without their projected starting interior offensive linemen for this game. I’ll take my chances the Texans get enough stops and win this game outright. Give me the Texans +1! |
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10-08-17 | Ravens v. Raiders -2.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -130 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (Raiders -2.5) I think we are getting some great value here with Oakland laying less than a field goal at home. The only reason the Raiders aren’t a much bigger favorite is the loss of Carr at QB. The thing is, I don’t know the drop off to backup E.J. Manuel is as big as people think. Manuel stepped in and completed 11 of 17 attempts for 106 yards and keep in mind that’s with Denver’s defense knowing Oakland was looking to pass the ball. This is a good offense for a backup to succeed, as the Raiders have one of the top offensive lines in the game and a bunch of talented weapons on the outside to make life easier on the quarterback. This could also be the week Marshawn Lynch comes to life, as the Ravens run defense has allowed 166 yards to the Jaguars and 173 to the Steeler the last two weeks. The drop off in run defense for Baltimore is coincided with the injury to defensive tackle Brandon Williams. He’s hasn’t practiced this week and looks unlikely to return for this game. That’s just one of a laundry list of injuries this Ravens team is dealing with right now. They got 10+ guys on IR and a lot of those are players who were expected to play big roles on this team. To lose the way they did to Jacksonville and come back against their hated rivals and lay another egg, tells me there’s a lot more wrong with this team than people think. They clearly aren’t playing with much confidence. I think the Raiders rally together with the injury to Carr and pull out the W at home. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is 10-2 ATS when his team is playing at home after 2 straight losses and Oakland is an impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 with a line of +3 to -3. Give me the Raiders -2.5! |