12-28-15 |
Kings v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
103-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SAC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging a whopping 114 points per game. They host the Sacramento Kings tonight, and everyone is expecting this one to be a high scoring battle. I think the bookmakers were perhaps a little too optimistic when they listed the opening total at 223. Sharp money has since pushed the number down a few points, but I think any number over 220 is just too inflated. Golden State has played back to back low scoring games against Cleveland and Utah, and they played phenomenal defense allowing an average of 84 points in those games. The Kings aren't known for their defense, but they haven't seen more than 220 points scored in any of their last nine games. The Kings have gone under in five straight on the road.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Cavs v. Suns UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
101-97 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@PHO to go UNDER the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are struggling on offense, coming off back to back losses at Golden State and Portland. They are facing another Western Conference team tonight in Phoenix, and the Suns are really struggling, losers of 15 of their last 20 overall. They've scored and average of just 96 points while losing their last four, and head coach Jeff Hornacek is rumored to be on the hot seat. Making matters worse, their leading scorer Eric Bledsoe suffered a serious knee injury in the loss to Philly on Saturday, and will be out indefinitely. Cleveland ranks third in the NBA allowing opponents to average just over 95 points per game, and they've gone under in 11 of their last 12 meetings with Phoenix.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Raptors v. Bulls OVER 196 |
Top |
97-104 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CHI to go OVER the total.
The Raptors are coming off back to back wins over Milwaukee and Dallas, and they scored an average of 107 points in those games. Toronto actually ranks higher defensively than it does offensively, but their best defender (DeMarre Carroll) remains sidelined with an injury. The Bulls used to be one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, but that isn't the case this season. Chicago has allowed opponents to average more than 100 points per game this season, and they are missing their best defender, former Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah. These teams have gone over the total in four of the last five meetings, and the Bulls have gone over in six straight versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Nets v. Heat UNDER 194 |
|
111-105 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@MIA to go UNDER the total. The Brooklyn Nets are 2-12 on the road, and they are in Miami to face the Heat on Monday. The Heat won back to back games on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, and they have won their last seven meetings with Brooklyn. The majority of those games were low scoring, and seven of Brooklyn's last 10 visits to Miami have failed to reach the total. Miami ranks 2nd in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 94.8 points per game. The under is 7-3 in Nets last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Miami has gone under in 20 of it's last 28 overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Lakers v. Hornets UNDER 202 |
Top |
98-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers will play their second game in as many nights on the road in Charlotte, and they will be a double-digit dog to the Hornets. Charlotte is 12-5 at home, but has failed to score 100 points in six of it's last seven overall. The Hornets rank among the best in the NBA on defense, holding opponents under 100 points per game. They've failed to reach the total in six of their last eight versus the Lakers. LA has failed to score 100 points in five of it's last six overall, and the Lakers are averaging just 96.2 points per game (29th in the NBA). The Hornets have gone under in five of their last six home games, and five straight at home versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Navy OVER 52.5 |
Top |
28-44 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@NAVY to go OVER the total.
The Navy Midshipmen will play the Pittsburgh Panthers at home in the Military Bowl, and I expect to see both these teams score their share of points. The total opened at 56, but has since been bet down a few points. Navy won 10 games during the season, and it's Triple-Option Offense was very successful. Pittsburgh managed to beat Georgia Tech earlier this season, but the Yellow Jackets who run a similar offense ran all over them, totaling 376 yards and three rushing TDs in a 31-28 loss. They lost to Notre Dame, and the Irish ran for 175 yards, winning 42-30. Pittsburgh has gone over in four of it's last five non-conference games, and Navy has gone over in nine of it's last 13 games on artificial turf.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-27-15 |
Giants v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 |
|
17-49 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on NYG@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Giants are now playing for pride after Washington clinched the NFC East with a 38-24 win at Philly on Saturday. The Vikings on the other hand are still battling the Packers for first place in the NFC North, so we can expect them to be prepared to grind out a win. The Giants defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping the pass, but the Vikings aren't likely to air it out as much as their previous opponents have. The Vikings rank 31st in the NFL averaging just 191 passing yards per game. Cold winter weather could make passing even more difficult for both teams, with sub-zero temperatures, wind and chances of snow in the forecast. Adrian Peterson will play for the Vikings, but he's only totaled 150 yards on 49 carries over the last three weeks, while being bothered by an ankle injury. The under is 6-2 in Minnesota's last eight home games, and the Vikes have seen five of their last seven meetings with New York fall short of the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-27-15 |
Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 198 |
Top |
96-112 |
Loss |
-111 |
16 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies finished last season ranked second in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of 95.1 points per game. They haven't been quite the defensive powerhouse this season, but after a terrible start they show signs of turning it around. Memphis has held five of it's last six opponents below 100 points, however it still managed to lose four of those games. The Grizz should be able to get back on track against the Lakers, who have lost four of their last five, scoring an average of just 88 points during that span. The Lakers were scoring more than their share of points at the beginning of the year, but have since struggled, now ranking 28th in the NBA scoring just over 96 points per game. Six of the last nine meetings between the two teams have gone under, and the Grizzlies have failed to reach the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 198 |
Top |
76-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs came up short, losing 89-83 at Golden State on Christmas Day, but they will have an excellent chance to bounce back tonight in Portland. The Blazers have lost five straight, failing to score 100 points in four of those five games. The Cavs are the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, holding opponents to just 94.9 points per game. They looked impressive last night, holding the NBA's best team, and highest scoring offense to just 89 points on 41 percent shooting. They Blazers are hoping Damian Lillard can return after missing the last two games with plantar fasciitis. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and they've failed to reach the total in each of the last five meetings in Portland. The Cavs have gone under in five straight on the road. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAC@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Jazz have really missed Rudy Gobert, but they look like they've rediscovered their defensive prowess in back to back home wins over Phoenix and Denver. They allowed less than 90 points in each of those games, and they've host the Clippers tonight, with LA coming off a 94-84 win over the Lakers last night. These teams have a history of playing lose scoring games, with six of the last eight meetings failing to reach the total. The Clippers have gone under in each of their last five games when playing the second game of a back to back. The Jazz have gone under in four of their last five home games, and 11 of their last 15 versus Western Conference teams. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
111-90 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIL to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are in Milwaukee on Saturday, and they will be a slight favorite versus the Bucks. Toronto ranks 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing just 96 points per game. The Bucks rank 26th in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 96 points per game. We've seen a trend of low scoring games in previous meetings between these two teams, as they've gone under in four straight, and six of the last eight meetings in Milwaukee. The Raptors have gone under in six of their last eight road game, while Milwaukee has failed to reach the total in four straight versus teams with a winning record. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-25-15 |
Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 212 |
Top |
83-89 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors look unstoppable, coming into this Christmas Day game against Cleveland with a 27-1 record. They lead the NBA in scoring, averaging over 115 points per game. Of course this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, and we saw some close hard fought games in that series, with four of the six games falling short of the total. Even the two games that did go over, didn't see enough points to reach the inflated total we see in this game, even with overtime in Games 1 and 2.
As good as the Warriors look on offense, Cleveland has been locking it down on defense. The Cavs rank third in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 95.2 points per game. They've won six straight, and have surrendered just 87 points per game during that span. They've gone under in seven of their last 10, and only one of those games saw enough points to go over this game's total.
The Warriors also showed some defensive prowess, holding the Jazz to just 85 points in their last game. They've been a good bet to go under at home. The under is 15-7-2 in Warriors last 24 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-23-15 |
76ers v. Bucks UNDER 195 |
Top |
100-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@MIL to go UNDER the total.
The Sixers are 0-17 on the road so far, and they a double-digit dog at Milwaukee tonight. They have lost 11 straight since beating the Lakers at the beginning of the month, and they scored less than 100 points in nine of those 11 losses. They rank dead last in the league in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. The total for tonight's game looks a little high, as the Bucks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut either. Milwaukee is ranked 28th in the NBA in scoring, averaging just 96 points per game. These teams have gone under in nine of the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Sixers have gone under in eight of their last 11 road games, and the Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 versus Eastern Conference opponents.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 194 |
Top |
104-90 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies are in Philly tonight, coming off a 95-87 home win over Indiana. They've been playing strong defense, holding opponents below 100 points in each of their last four games. Philly ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. They scored just 86 points on 34.9 percent shooting in a loss at Cleveland in their most recent game. Both previous meetings between these two teams in 2015 failed to reach the total, and the number in tonight's game is higher than it was in either of those games. The Grizzlies have gone under in 13 of their last 18 road games, while Philly has gone under in eight of it's last 10 versus Western Conference teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-21-15 |
Suns v. Jazz UNDER 200 |
Top |
89-110 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHO@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Jazz put an end to a four game losing streak with a 97-88 home win over a hot Denver Nuggets team. The Jazz are one of the NBA's best defensive teams, ranking 5th in the NBA allowing 97.3 points per game. They haven't been quite as stingy since the injury to Rudy Gobert, but I like their chances tonight, hosting the struggling Phoenix suns who lost at home last night to Milwaukee 101-95. The Suns have lost 10 of 14 on the road so far, and they've failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 at Utah. The Jazz have trended under at a rate of 21-7 in Jazz last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The incredibly high total for tonight's game flies in the face of the trends, and I expect the Jazz to play their fifth consecutive under at home tonight against Phoenix.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 195 |
Top |
91-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@NYK to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks have won three straight, and they host the Bulls on Saturday. The Knicks have been involved in some high scoring games lately, but with both teams playing their second game in as many nights, I expect a lower scoring contest tonight. Both Chicago and New York are ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in opponent's scoring average, allowing less than 100 points per game. The Bulls have gone under in four of their last five road games, and they might not have a lot left in the tank after playing multiple overtimes last night. The total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of the last 10 meetings, and I think the value lies with a play on UNDER.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-18-15 |
Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 196.5 |
Top |
88-97 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Memphis Grizzlies will be in Dallas taking on the Mavs tonight, and I think the total for this game looks a little low. Perhaps people still think of Memphis as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA? Last year they ranked second in the league in opponent's scoring, allowing only 95.1 points per game. Things have changed since then, and they rank below average so far this year, allowing 100.9 points per contest. The Mavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last year, and have improved just slightly. The over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and 4-0-2 in the Grizzlies last six trips to Dallas. Tony Allen is considered by many to be the best defender in the NBA, and he hasn't played since last Friday, sitting out the last three games with a knee injury. The Mavs have gone over in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-18-15 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
107-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYK@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks are coming off back to back wins over Portland and Minnesota, and each of those games were high scoring. I'm expecting a slower pace here on the road at Philly, as the Sixers are ranked dead last in the NBA in scoring, and New York has been pretty good defensively. These teams certainly have a history of playing low scoring games, with five of the last six failing to reach the total, and 10 of the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia going under the number. Kristaps Porzingis had seven blocks in the win over Minnesota, and the rookie they call #PorzinGOD scored 17 points with 10 rebounds and four blocks in a 99-87 home win over Philly earlier this season. I expect tonight's game to look very much like the previous matchup at the Garden.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 204 |
Top |
104-94 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz have lost three straight, but two of those three losses came on the road. The other was a 94-90 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they should have an excellent chance to put an end to this skid tonight. They host the New Orleans Pelicans, a team with a 1-12 road record. The Pelicans blew a 14-point lead in a 98-94 loss to the Bulls on Friday, and the under is 7-3 in Pelicans last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the league, holding opponents to an average of 97.4 points per game. We've seen 10 of their last 14 games versus teams below .500 fail to reach the total, and I think tonight's number is way higher than it should be.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 199 |
Top |
106-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go UNDER the total. The Atlanta Hawks are struggling, coming into tonight's home game against the Sixers as losers of three straight. They've been ice cold offensively during that span, averaging just 86 points in those games. The good news is that they are facing a Philly team that is 1-25 overall, and 0-15 on the road. The Sixers are averaging an NBA low 90.6 points per game, and they might struggle to reach their average here on the road tonight. The Hawks aren't bad defensively, allowing opponents to average less than 100 points per game. They've gone under in five straight versus Philly, and eight of their last nine games versus teams below .500 have failed to reach the total. The Hawks were the top three-point shooting team in the East last year, but rank 18th overall in the NBA this year.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-15-15 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 204.5 |
Top |
112-100 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DEN@MIN to go OVER the total
The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Denver Nuggets tonight, and Denver comes in red hot as winners of four of their last five. They beat the Rockets at home last night by a score of 114-108, and there's every reason to expect another high scoring affair in Minnesota. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 22nd and 24th in opponent's scoring average. The T-Pups have lost six of seven, and seven of their last eight have seen over 200 points scored. These two teams have gone over in six of the last eight meetings in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves have gone over in 10 of their last 13 versus a team with a losing record. Danilo Gallinari has been red hot, and he scored 23 points in a 111-108 win over Minnesota on Friday. We should see history repeat itself here in Minnesota tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-14-15 |
Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 199.5 |
Top |
95-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Grizzlies lost a heart-breaker in Miami last night, and now they are back home playing their second game in a back to back against Washington. The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 26th in the league allowing opponents to average 105.3 points per game. They won 114-111 at Dallas on Saturday, and they've seen at least 200 points scored in each of their last seven overall. The Grizzlies were one of the stingiest teams in the league last year, but they are below average so far this season, allowing 101.2 points per game. Memphis has gone over in five of it's last seven overall, and Washington has gone over at rate of 5-2-1 in it's last eight versus Western Conference teams. This total looks a little low considering.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Rangers v. Flames OVER 5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYR@CAL to go OVER the total. The Calgary Flames are the worst defensive team in the NHL, ranking dead last in goals against. They gutted out a 4-3 win over the Sabres on Thursday, despite several key players suffering from the flu. "You should've been in the locker room... the medical staff runs in the coach's office saying 'Guys are puking everywhere,'" coach Bob Hartley said. The Rangers are coming off a sloppy 7-5 loss in Edmonton last night, and Henrik Lundqvsit was pulled after allowing five goals on 28 shots. It's likely we'll see backup Anntti Ranta back between the pipes tonight, resting the veteran in a back to back. The Flames don't play many low scoring games, especially at home. The over is 13-3-1 in Flames last 17 home games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Spurs v. Hawks OVER 191 |
Top |
103-78 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SAS@ATL to go OVER the total. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Hawks 108-88 home in San Antonio on Nov.28 and I expect a similar total for the scoreline tonight. The Spurs put up impressive offensive numbers in last night's 109-87 win against the Lakers as they shot 53.7% from the field despite resting Tony Parker completely and Tim Duncan logging just 20 minutes. I think it's fair to assume that the Spurs will be lively on the ball tonight as well with a fresh Parker in the starting lineup again. Backup point guard Patty Mills scored 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting in Parker's absence last night, and that's a great testament to the depth of the offensive talent the Spurs have at their disposal. The Hawks have been inconsistent in recent weeks and allowed the Thunder to shoot 48.8% from the field and 52.9% from 3-point range in Thursday's 107-94 defeat. They're usually putting up strong offensive displays at Philips Arena though where they average 102.6 points per game this season, and that should be the case tonight as well. The over is 4-1 in the Spurs last five overall and 5-1 in their last six when visiting a team with a winning home record. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-11-15 |
Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 193 |
Top |
107-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Sixers rank dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. They scored 91 points in a loss last night to one of the worst teams in the East, and they face the Pistons in their second game of a back to back at home tonight. Detroit is coming off a brutal home loss to Memphis, as the Grizzlies won by one point on a half-court buzzer-93-92 beater by a score of 93-92. The Pistons rank 5th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 97.6 points per game. The bad news is that they rank near the bottom in scoring, averaging roughly the same. Detroit has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six road games, while the Sixers have gone under in 11 of their last 15 home games. These teams also have a history of playing low scoring games, with 11 of the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia failing to reach the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-10-15 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 196.5 |
Top |
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@BKN to go UNDER the total.
Philly is coming off an ugly home loss to the Spurs, scoring just 68 point on 34 percent shooting. They rank dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. While they were completely out-classed in the loss to San Antonio, they had been very competitive in nine straight games before that. Tonight's game in Brooklyn is as good a chance as any for the Sixers to pick up a win, playing the second worst team in the Eastern Conference. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in each of the last six head to head meetings. The Sixers have failed to reach the total in five of their last six road games, while the Nets have gone under in six straight versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-10-15 |
Canadiens v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MTL@DET to go UNDER the total. The Montreal Canadiens have struggled in recent games with just three points through their last five. Goalscoring has been their main concern with just a total of nine goal scored in that span, and odds are we'll see a low-scoring game when they visit the Detroit Red Wings Thursday night. The Habs lost 3-1 against the Bruins last night and will try to drag down the tempo as much as possible here, and the under is 32-15-10 in their last 57 games playing on back-to-back nights. The Red Wings meanwhile have played good hockey lately and will be looking to extend their 11-game point streak. They struggled with the Caps and Braden Holtby in a 3-2 shootout loss at Washington Tuesday though, and tonight they'll face Dustin Tokarski who'll be extremely pumped up making his season-debut. None of Montreal's last six have gone over the total, and that's a trend likely to continue tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-09-15 |
Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 192 |
|
85-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYK@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Jazz have struggled losing three of their last four, but they have an excellent opportunity to bounce back at home tonight hosting the Knicks. New York has dropped six of it's last eight overall, and three straight on the road. The Jazz are still one of the NBA's best defensive teams, ranking 3rd in the league allowing opponents to average just 96.8 points per game. The Knicks are also among the top defensive teams, holding the opposition to just over 98 points per game. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have failed to reach the total, and four of the last five in Utah have also gone under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-09-15 |
Spurs v. Raptors OVER 187.5 |
Top |
94-97 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Raptors will host the Spurs in Toronto tonight, and these are two of the NBA's top defensive teams. Both teams also do their fair share of scoring though, and I think the total here looks a little too low. Both teams could be without their best defensive players, as DeMarre Carroll will not play for the Raptors, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Kwahi Leonard is questionable for the Spurs. The Raptors are expected to give more minutes to youngster Terrence Ross, and to say that he's not known for his defense might be understating it. The Raptors have seen the total go over in four of their last five home games, and four of their last five home meetings versus San Antonio.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-15 |
Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
84-104 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons come into Charlotte as winners of four straight, but all four of those wins came at home. Last night they beat the Lakers by a score of 111-91, but I expect them to have a tougher time on the road playing their second game in as many nights. Detroit is just 4-7 on the road this season, and they've lost their last three. They scored an average of just 86 points in those three losses.
Both these teams rank near the top of the league in opponent's scoring average, each holding the opposition to fewer than 100 points per game. Detroit has gone under in four of it's last five on the road, and four of it's last five when playing on back to back nights. The Hornets have held opponents below 100 points in four of their last five, with the only exception being a loss to the 20-0 Warriors.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints OVER 49.5 |
Top |
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
159 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.
The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games.
He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-06-15 |
Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 49 |
Top |
35-28 |
Loss |
-102 |
101 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles have looked like the worst team in the NFL the last two weeks, losing back to back blowouts at Detroit and at home to Tampa Bay. This week's game at Foxboro looks like a tough one at first glance, but there are plenty of reasons to expect the unexpected. The Pats appear to be vulnerable, coming off a tough loss at Denver last Sunday. While they lost on the scoreboard, they also lost TE Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury, and defenders Patrick Chung and Donta Hightower were also banged up in Denver.
Tom Brady has been taking a beating the last few weeks, and he was sacked three times last Sunday. His receiving corps this week is likely to look like a practice squad, as in addition to the injury to Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Julian Edelman are out, and Danny Amendola is questionable.
More good news for Philly, it looks like starting quarterback Sam Bradford will return to face the Patriots after missing the last two games due to injury. The Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East, so there is still plenty to play for here. With all of New England's injuries, the bookmakers have ajusted the point spread by as much as six points, but the total remains the same. I think this is a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-05-15 |
Maple Leafs v. Blues OVER 5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@STL to go OVER the total. The Toronto Maple Leafs and the St. Louis Blues have both struggled to score goals in recent games, but this looks like a good spot for both sides to break out of their offensive slump. The Blues have opened the month with a pair of losses to the Panthers and the Islanders, scoring just once in each game. Odds are they'll face an inexperienced goaltender tonight though as the Leafs James Reimer aggravated a lower-body injury Thursday, and with Jonathan Bernier in the AHL that leaves Garret Sparks and Antoine Bibeau as the two options. The former allowed six goals on 35 shots in a 6-1 loss at Winnipeg Wednesday, and the latter has no NHL experience what so ever. Toronto has managed only one goal over back-to-back losses to start the month, but the Blues' netminder Jake Allen has been very inconsistent lately and gave up three goals on 15 shots before leaving the game after the second period of Tuesday's 3-1 defeat to Florida. The Blues played the Islanders in Brooklyn last night, and the over is 9-3-3 in their last 15 games playing on back-to-back nights. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-03-15 |
Celtics v. Kings UNDER 215 |
Top |
114-97 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@SAC to go UNDER the total.
The Celtics and the Kings are two teams not known to play particularly good defense, but I still think they will come up short of an inflated total tonight. This game will be played in Mexico City, in an arena that isn't going to be familiar to either team. Boston has actually been playing pretty well defensively of late, winning three of their last four, and holding opponents under 100 points in all three of those wins. The Kings have seen the total go under in seven straight games when playing on two days rest, and the Celtics have gone under in four in a row after two days off. The Kings have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 13 when playing a team with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-03-15 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 185 |
Top |
103-83 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Spurs come into Memphis as winners of 11 of their last 13, but they've lost two of their last three road games. They might have a tough time playing a hot Memphis team on the back end of a back to back. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five, and they've scored an average of over 103 points per game during that span. Memphis still has a reputation for being a strong defensive team, but the numbers don't support that. They rank 13th overall in the league allowing just under 100 points per game. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, with the total going over the number in nine of the last 13 meetings. The number for tonight's game is lower than it was in any of those previous contests.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-30-15 |
Canucks v. Ducks OVER 5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on VAN@ANA to go OVER the total.
The Canucks rank among the highest scoring teams in the NHL, and they come into Anaheim with a power-play unit that is firing on all cylinders. Vancouver has tallied 11 goals with the man-advantage over their last eight games, but the Ducks are also heating up, converting on 4-of-8 power-play opportunities over their last three games. These teams have seen the total go under in six of the last 10 meetings, but tonight's total is lower than it was in all but one of those games. Anaheim is likely to start backup goaltender John Gibson who has been filling in for Fredrick Anderson who has the flu. Both these teams have been trending over in recent games, with the Ducks falling short of the total just once in their last nine overall, and Vancouver going over in eight of their last 11.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-21-15 |
Flyers v. Senators UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@OTT to go UNDER the total.
The Sens are coming off a 3-0 shutout win over the Blue Jackets on Thursday, and Craig Anderson made 25 saves in the victory. The veteran netminder has struggled with injuries the last few seasons, but it wasn't long ago that he was considered to be one of the league's best goaltenders. He wasn't quite as sharp in a 4-3 shootout loss to the Wings on Monday, but he allowed just one goal on 34 shots in a 2-1 OT loss to the Rangers at home last Saturday. He'll face a Flyers team that ranks near the bottom of the NHL in scoring, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. They are also brutal on the power-play, converting on just 14 percent of their chances. Low scoring games have been the norm when these teams meet, with seven of the last nine failing to reach the total. The Under is 18-7-4 in Flyers last 29 games playing on 1 days rest.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-19-15 |
Blue Jackets v. Senators UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CBJ@OTT to go UNDER the total. The Columbus Blue Jackets have seen massive improvements since John Tortorella took over as coach four weeks ago. They enter this game riding a three-game winning streak with only four goals allowed, despite playing offensive powerhouses such as Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Sergei Bobrovsky deserve a lot of credit for the Blue Jackets improved defensive record. He's 7-3-0 with a 2.26 GAA since posting a 4.72 mark in an 0-6-0 start. He had posted a 2.13 GAA in his previous seven meetings with the Sens before surrendering six goals on 26 shots on Oct. 14. Expect him and the whole Blue Jackets team to come in looking for redemption for that lackluster performance. Ottawa has lost four of its last five and goalscoring on 5-vs-5 has been an issue as it has scored seven of its 11 goals over that span on the power play. The Jackets have killed off 16 consecutive penalties so the Sens are unlikely to have similar success on the man advantage tonight. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at Canadian Tire Centre. This should be another low-scoring affair. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-19-15 |
Sharks v. Flyers OVER 5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SJ@PHI to go OVER the total. The San Jose Sharks had little trouble to light up the lamp in a 5-4 win at Boston two days ago and I think they'll be involved in another high-scoring match-up when visiting the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. Joe Thornton scored his first goal of the month Tuesday and added two assists as well. Patrick Marleau has scored in back-to-back games and has recorded seven goals and 18 points in 24 career games against Philadelphia. Bad news for the Flyers netminder Steve Mason who has compiled a 2.95 GAA for the month with a very mediocre .905 SV%. The Sharks power play unit ranks among the worst in the league, but it has done well in recent games with three goals on eight chances. The Flyers penalty kill is in the bottom third with a 76.% success rate and they have gone just 5-for-10 on the penalty kill over their last four games. The over is 6-2-1 in the Sharks last nine overall and 12-1 in their last 13 after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. An apparent streaky team when it comes to goals, I can only assume that the Sharks will stay efficient tonight as well and combine enough goals with the Flyers to take this game past the set number for the total. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-18-15 |
Nets v. Hornets UNDER 196.5 |
Top |
111-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Charlotte Hornets host the 2-9 Nets in Charlotte tonight, and the Nets are coming off just their second win of the season. I don't like Brooklyn's chances of following up with another win here, playing on back to back nights. Charlotte is 3-1 at home so far, and three of those game failed to reach the total. The Hornets have played well defensively, allowing opponents to average just 99.5 points per game. The Nets rank 29th in the NBA averaging just 94.3 points per game, and they have trended under in six of their last seven road games. The Hornets on the other hand have trended under at a rate of 7-1 in their last eight home games. Tonight's number doesn't look right, a little too high given the trends, and the style that both these teams play.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-17-15 |
Blues v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@COL to go UNDER the total. Match-ups between the St. Louis Blues and the Columbus Blue Jackets have been high-scoring affairs in recent seasons, but I have a feeling that won't be the case tonight. The Blue Jackets had an extremely poor start to the season but they're playing much better hockey since John Tortorella took over the managerial responsibilities, and they picked up their first home-win of the season with a 5-2 win against Arizona Saturday. Their line chemistry is a bit disrupted coming into this game though due to a Brandon Dubinsky injury. Their star netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is luckily enough 100% fit for fight, and he has stopped 55 of 58 shots while winning back-to-back games. "Bob" is as good as it gets when he's on his game, which he clearly is right now. He might be in for a quiet night anyway as St. Louis mustered only 18 shots in a 3-2 win against Winnipeg yesterday. The Blues have had a rough schedule of late, and the under is 6-1-1 in their last eight in the last game of a 4-in-6 days situation. They'll probably try to control the tempo of the game, making it as slow as possible. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-17-15 |
Bucks v. Wizards OVER 201 |
Top |
86-115 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Washington Wizards will host Milwaukee tonight, and they are expected to be without Bradley Beal, who has missed the last two games. They didn't need him on Saturday when they beat the Orlando Magic 108-99. They lost their previous game by a score of 125-101 to Oklahoma City. Defense hasn't been a strong point for the Wizards this season, ranking 29th overall allowing opponents to average more than 109 points per game. The Bucks are below average defensively as well, allowing over 101 points per game so far.
This will be the second meeting between the two teams this season, and Washington won the first game by a score of 118-113 at Milwaukee. Seven of the last nine meetings between the two teams has gone over the total, and the Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington. This Wizards team has been trending over at home at a rate of 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-17-15 |
Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 53 |
Top |
31-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BALL@OHIO to go UNDER the total.
The Ohio Bob-Kittens will host Ball State in a Tuesday night game in the MAC. I'm calling them the the Bob-Kittens because their offense hasn't been all that ferocious lately. That being said, their defense did pitch a shutout in a 27-0 win over Kent State last week. I think we should see a similar score here tonight. Ball State has been one of the worst teams in the country this season, and they only managed 152 yards of total offense in a loss to Western Michigan last week. They gave up 54 points in that game, but Western Michigan's offense is a helluva lot better than this "Bob-Kittens" offfense.
Ohio only attempted 14 passes last week, and Derrius Vick threw for just 73 yards. The Cardinal likely won't be able to contend with Ohio's running game, so there is really no need to ask Vick to air it out here either. Ohio is only averaging 25 points per game, ranking 91st nationally. Eight of the last 10 of the Bobcats home games has gone under, and the Under is 10-4 in Bobcats last 14 conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-15 |
Pacers v. Bulls UNDER 197 |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on IND@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers will take on the Bulls at the United Center tonight, coming off three straight wins. I like what I have seen from Indiana during a three game winning streak, and I'll ride them while they are hot. The Bulls are asked to cover a handful of points at home tonight, and they've been far from impressive so far this season. Chicago is 3-2 in it's last five, but one of those wins was against the Sixers.
Derrick Rose continues to struggle, still suffering from the effects of a broken orbital bone. The injury has affected his vision:"I'm playing with both of them open now," Rose said. "But [my vision] is still blurry when I look certain ways. But that's part of [the recovery], I guess." He scored just 10 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the win over Charlotte on Friday.
The Pacers superstar forward Paul George seems to have put his injury woes behind him, averaging 30 points over his last five games. He's averaged 22.2 points in his last five visits to Chicago.
The Pacers have also impressed with their defense, ranking 5th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just over 96 points per game. These teams have a history of playing tight, low scoring games, and they have failed to reach the total in seven of the last nine meetings. Tonight's total is much higher that it was in any of those previous contests.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-15 |
Red Wings v. Senators UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@OTT to go UNDER the total. Both the Detroit Red Wings and the Ottawa Senators have struggled to light up the lamp consistently in recent games, and we should see a low-scoring contest when the two teams clash at Canadian Tire Centre Monday night. The Red Wings 2.18 goals per game for the season is among the worst marks in the league, and they have scored only nine goals over their last six games. They've managed to split those six games thanks to a stingy defense that has allowed only 12 goals over the same span though, and the penalty kill unit has gone 14-for-16. The Senators have seen five of their last six games see five goals or less, with a 7-5 defeat at Nashville the lone exception. Their netminder Craig Anderson has raised his game of late and held the Rangers to one goal on 34 shots in a 2-1 shootout defeat Saturday. Both teams played Saturday which set up a good spot for the under. Each of the Sens last six games playing on one days rest have gone under and the same is true for each of the Red Wings last four on the same rest. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-16-15 |
Canucks v. Canadiens OVER 5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on VAN@MTL to go OVER the total. The Montreal Canadiens lost 6-1 against the Avalanche Saturday and they'll be looking to bounce back with a win when hosting the Vancouver Canucks Monday. They're among the best teams in the league, but their defense have crumbled in recent games and my money is on this contest to go over the total. Vancouver has won only one of its last six games, with three goals or more allowed in each game over that span. Ryan Miller has posted a 3.46 GAA over a five-game stretch, and now he'll face Montreal who is averaging 3.50 goals per game, the second best mark in the league. The Habs had scored on the power play in seven consecutive games before being blanked by the Avs Saturday. Vancouver's penalty kill unit is among the bottom third in the league, and it has gone just 13-for-21 on the penalty kill over the last six games. Montreal's top line of Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher have been on fire lately and they're all owners of an individual four-game point-streak. All three had goals in a 3-1 home win over Vancouver on Dec. 9 last year. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-14-15 |
Avalanche v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@MTL to go UNDER the total. With both these teams forced to ride backup goaltenders, the bookmakers have listed a high number for the total in this game. I think that may be a mistake however, as Colorado's backup netminder has been standing on his head, going 3-3 with a 1.58 GAA in six starts, and winning his last two. Mike Condon has been equally as impressive for the Habs, boasting a record of 6-0-2 with a 1.73 GAA. Montreal ranks second in the NHL in goals against (1.9 per game), as well as penalty kill percentage (89.7%). Colorado has trended under at rate of 7-1-1 in it's last nine road games, and going back further the under is 23-9-5 in their last 37 versus a team with a winning record. I think this number is a little inflated considering the situation. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-14-15 |
Rangers v. Senators UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a play on NYR@OTT to go UNDER the total. The New York Rangers will look to remain hot as they take on Ottawa in an early game in Canada's capital this Saturday. Henrik Lundqvist will be between the pipes for the Blue Shirts, and he's looking like an early candidate for the Vezina Trophy. King Henrik is 9-2-2 with a 1.76 GAA so far, and he's won five straight posting a 1.39 GAA during that span. The Rangers rank 1st overall in the NHL in goals against, allowing opponents to average just 1.7 goals per game, and they ranked 3rd in penalty kill percentage. The Senators have not been quite so successful on defense, but I think we'll see a solid effort this afternoon on home ice. Previous games between these two teams have not yielded many goals, as only twice in the last 10 meetings have they netted more than five. The Sens have played five straight unders when coming off one day of rest, and the under trend goes way back, with these clubs failing to reach the total at a rate of 36-14-9 in the last 59 meetings. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-13-15 |
Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
97-102 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on CHA@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Bulls were embarrassed in a 130-105 loss at Charlotte last week, and they will have a chance to execute revenge at home here tonight. Chicago followed up that loss with an impressive home win over the Thunder, before losing their next game at home to Minnesota. That was their first home loss, as they had won their previous four home games, holding each opponent under 100 points.
It would appear likely that this rematch in Chicago will be a much lower scoring games. The Hornets have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record, and the under in 5-1 in their last six trips to the Windy City. The total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of those previous six games, and Chicago has gone under in each of it's last six at home.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-13-15 |
Cavs v. Knicks OVER 201 |
|
90-84 |
Loss |
-101 |
20 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on CLE@NYK to go OVER the total.
The Knicks are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road at Charlotte, as rookie Kristaps Porzingis appeared to hit a game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer. The replay showed that the shot came just a fraction of a second after time expired, and New York lost 95-93. They are back home tonight hosting Cleveland, who have won seven straight since an Opening Night loss in Chicago.
The Knicks played the Cavs hard last week in Cleveland, trailing by just a single point heading into the fourth quarter of a 96-86 loss. They are getting a bunch of points here as a home dog, and I think they'll give LeBron and the Cavs a run for their money. They've been a good bet in recent meetings, covering the spread in seven of the last 10. These teams have scored their share of points when playing at MSG, as the total has gone over in 11 of the last 15 meetings in New York
Carmelo Anthony is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 29 points on 12-of-25 shooting against the Hornets. He'll have a little more help with the addition of Arron Afflalo who made his debut against the Hornets. Afllalo scored a dozen points on 6-of-13 shooting in 28 minutes. He was the leading scorer for the Magic in his two seasons in Orlando, but has since bounced around playing for Denver and Portland the last two seasons.
The Cavs have scored 100+ points in six of their last seven, and they have surrendered 100 or more in three of their last five.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-13-15 |
Wolves v. Pacers UNDER 197.5 |
|
103-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on MIN@IND to go UNDER the total. The Indiana Pacers appear to be getting their swagger back, coming into tonight's home game against Minnesota as winners of five of their last six. They held all five opponents under 100 points in those victories, and they rank 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing just over 95 points per game. The Wolves come in playing their second game in a back to back, and third game in four nights. They have won all four of their road games so far, but it's going to be tough to keep that streak going in Indianapolis where they have failed to cover in five of their last six. Each of the Pacers last four home games has failed to reach the total, and I think they'll stay well below an inflated number here tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-12-15 |
Jazz v. Heat OVER 182 |
Top |
91-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UTAH@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Jazz got off to a good start, winning four of their first six games, and they are still 1st in the league in opponent's scoring average allowing under 90 points per game. They failed to slow down the Cavs in Cleveland on Tuesday though, losing by a score of 118-114. That came as little surprise to me, as I had said just a few days earlier: "The Utah Jazz have won two of three, and rank first overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing just 79.7 points per game so far. Before you get too excited, consider that they have played three Eastern Conference teams that all finished near the bottom of the standings a year ago."
They face another Eastern Conference team that missed the playoffs last year, but the Miami Heat are coming off back to back home wins, and they look like a contender so far this year. Chris Bosh is back and looking very healthy, he scored a season high 30 points in the win over the Lakers on Tuesday. The Jazz could be without one of their best defenders as Rudy Gobert left the last game in the fourth quarter with a sprained ankle.
As good as both these teams are defensively, they can also both score with the best of them. They each scored over 100 points in their last game, and the total has trended over at a rate of 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Tonight's total is at least five points lower than it was in any of those previous 10 meetings.
Take Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-11-15 |
Pistons v. Kings OVER 203 |
Top |
92-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on DET@SAC to go OVER the total.
The Kings are hosting the surprising Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night, and I think the total looks a little low here. Sacramento is one of the league's highest scoring teams, averaging over 106 points per game, but the Kings rank near last in opponent's scoring average allowing a ridiculous 110.6 points per game. The Pistons prefer to play a more defensive style, but they've proved that they can score with the best oft them, averaging over 105 points per game while winning three of their four road games so far. They scored 114 points in a home win over the Kings in the last meetings between these two teams. The Kings have really struggled against quality opponents, and they've seen the total go over at a rate of 8-3-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. They've also gone over in 11 of their last 13 versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-10-15 |
Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 211 |
Top |
105-120 |
Loss |
-100 |
24 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@NO to go UNDER the total. The Pelicans have had a few days off since losing by a score of 107-98 at Dallas on Saturday. They'll host the Mavs in the second leg of this home and home series on Tuesday night, still in search of their first win. I believe that the Pelicans are a much better team than their 0-6 record, and they should have a golden opportunity to notch their first win at home tonight.
This is a particularly tough spot for Dallas, who play at home tomorrow night against DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers. This will be the first time Jordan will travel to Dallas since backing out of his agreement to sign with the team in the off-season.
While the Pelicans are off to a terrible start, their superstar PF Anthony Davis has been really heating up. He scored 25 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the loss to Dallas, and in the previous game he went off for 43 points on 14-of-23 shooting. He's averaged 26.7 points and 12.7 boards in his last three at home against the Mavericks.
The Pelicans rank at the bottom of the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing over 114 points per game. That number though is skewed by the fact that two of their first six games came against the league's best teams (Golden State). They will need to play a lot better on defense if they hope to beat the Mavericks tonight, and I am sure that's something they have worked on over the last few days. They did a good job through three quarters in Dallas on Saturday, holding the Mavs to 72 points, but were out-scored 35-28 in the final frame. I expect them to grind it out for a full 48 minutes tonight, en route to their first "W" of the season. These teams failed to reach an inflated total in the last meeting, and I expect an even lower scoring game here tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-10-15 |
Lakers v. Heat UNDER 202 |
Top |
88-101 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on LAL@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers won their first game of the season on the road in Brooklyn on Friday, but went on to lose 99--95 to the Knicks on Sunday. They are in Miami tonight, facing a Heat team that six straight and nine of 10 in the last 10 meetings in this series. Most of those games were quite low scoring, with eight of 10 failing to reach the total. These teams have gone under in eight of the last 11 meetings in Miami, and the Heat have gone under in each of their last six overall. Miami ranks first in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average, allowing just over 90 points per game. They've held six of their seven opponents under 100 points, and have only scored 100+ twice themselves. The Lakers of course have trended in the opposite direction, scoring plenty of points and giving up even more. This is Miami, and I expect the Heat to dictate the tempo in their house.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-09-15 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
104-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* pay on POR@DEN to go UNDER the total.
Portland is coming off an epic collapse at home to Detroit last night. They led 92-79 heading into the fourth quarter, but were out-scored 41-11 in the final frame, losing 120-103 to the Pistons. They might have just run out of gas, and that doesn't bode well as they pay their second game of a back to back on the road in Denver tonight. Denver has lost four of six to start the season, and they failed to reach 100 points in all but one of those losses. The Nuggets rank 24th overall in the NBA averaging just over 97 points per game, and they have failed to reach the total in four of their six games so far. The Blazers have gone over in four straight after going under in their first three games of the season. The total in tonight's game is much higher than it was in any of Portland's previous games this season. I think the total for tonight's game looks a little inflated, especially with the Blazers coming in with no rest following an tough loss.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-08-15 |
Raptors v. Heat OVER 190.5 |
|
76-96 |
Loss |
-108 |
15 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TOR@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Toronto Raptors will be eager to get back on the court after suffering their first loss of the season at home to Orlando on Friday. It was also the first time this season they've failed to score 100+ points. I like their chances of getting back on track with both of those trends on the road at Miami tonight. Toronto won two of three meetings with Miami last season, and two of those three games went over the total. Tonight's game features a much lower number than we've seen in previous meetings, and I think we'll see enough scoring to push it over. Toronto's leading scorer DeMar DeRozan has scored an average of 24 points on 51.4 percent shooting in his last four trips to Miami. Toronto may have been caught by surprise against Orlando, but the Raptors have gone over the total in six of their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-08-15 |
Lakers v. Knicks UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@NYK to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks have lost three straight, averaging just 87 points in those games. They host the struggling Lakers tonight, and LA is coming off it's first win of the season. The Lakers defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 104-98, and it was the first time this season they held an opponent under 100 points. The last time these teams met, the Knicks won in LA by a score of 101-94. The total in today's game looks way to high all things considered, and I think these two teams will struggle to score enough points to reach this inflated number. The under is 13-6 in Knicks last 19 vs. Western Conference, and the Lakers have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 15 road games versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 218.5 |
|
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@SAC to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are coming off another outrageous offense display last night, beating the Denver Nuggets by a score of 119-104. They led 77-44 at halftime, and were in cruise control the rest of the way. They play their second game of a back to back on the road in Sacramento tonight, and the bookmakers have listed an enormously high number for this game. History suggests that we might not see quite as much scoring tonight, as the Warriors have seen the total go under in five of their last seven trips to Sacramento. In fact seven of the last 10 meetings has gone under the total, and the number wasn't as high as it is tonight in any of those previous games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 179.5 |
Top |
79-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Jazz are off to a great start, and they still rank 1st overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. I bet on the "over" in their last home game versus Portland, and one of the reasons for making that play was that I felt that Utah's defense is a little overrated due to a soft schedule. Here is what I had to say prior to tipoff: "The Utah Jazz have won two of three, and rank first overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing just 79.7 points per game so far. Before you get too excited, consider that they have played three Eastern Conference teams that all finished near the bottom of the standings a year ago." The Blazers ended up winning that game by a score of 108-92, and that has Utah trending over at a rate of 6-1 in their last seven home games, and they've gone over in six of their last seven versus the Western Conference. They played another low scoring game against Denver last night, but now they host a hungry Grizzlies team on the back end of a back to back tonight. The Grizzlies aren't looking like the defensive powerhouse they were in previous seasons, ranking 23rd in the league with an opponent's scoring average of 103.8. Tonight's number is ridiculously low, and I think the bookmakers have made a mistake here.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Hornets v. Spurs OVER 193.5 |
Top |
94-114 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHA@SA to go OVER the total.
The Charlotte Hornets are hot, coming off a pair of impressive wins over Chicago and Dallas. I bet on the over in their last game, a 108-94 road win over the Mavericks. Here is what I had to say prior to the game: "Michael Jordan's team is coming off an epic win over his former team, beating the Bulls by a score of 130-105. They shot 51.6 percent from the field, and an even better 60.9 percent from beyond the arc in that game. Charlotte has trended over at a rate of 10-4-1 in it's last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The total for tonight's game appears to be a little lower than it should be." We see another low total here in San Antonio, and I think a hot shooting Charlotte team can score enough points to push this total over.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Nets v. Bucks OVER 194 |
Top |
86-94 |
Loss |
-107 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Milwaukee Bucks have won three straight after opening the season 0-3. They are coming off a 99-92 win over the Knicks in New York last night, and Jabari Parker made his season debut in the victory. The Bucks host Brooklyn tonight, and the Nets are still winless after losing to the Lakers last night. History tells us that we can expect to see plenty of scoring when these two teams get together, as six of the last seven meetings have gone over the total. Both teams are playing in their second game in as many nights, and both have trended over in such situations. Milwaukee has gone over in four of it's last five when playing on no rest, while the over is 5-1 in the Nets last six games playing on 0 days rest. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in opponent's scoring average, each allowing well over 100 points per game so far.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 211 |
|
98-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on NO@DAL to go UNDER the total. The New Orleans Pelicans are struggling, still in search of their first win of the season. They are going to have to play much better defense though if they want to put an end to this losing skid. The Pelicans are in Dallas tonight, and the bookmakers are expecting a shootout in Texas. I think this number looks a little inflated, and I can't resist a value bet on the under. The last time these teams met, the Mavs won by a score of 102-93 in Dallas, with the total falling well short of the number. The under is just 5-5 in the last 10 meetings in this series, but tonight's number is much higher than it was in any of those previous meetings. New Orleans hasn't gone over in any of it's last five road games, and the under is is 11-5-1 in Pelicans last 17 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-15 |
Magic v. 76ers OVER 191.5 |
|
105-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on ORL@PHI to go OVER the total. The Orlando Magic are coming off an upset win at home over the Toronto Raptors last night, and they shot 9-of-25 from three-point range in the victory. They are on the road at Philly tonight, and this is a rare occasion that they are a favorite away from home. The Sixers have been a bit more competitive so far this season, and they are coming off a 108-102 loss to Cleveland last night. We should expect a high scoring game here tonight, as these are two teams that are not known for their defense. The Sixers have gone over in eight of their last 10 overall, and six of their last seven home games.
Take OVER. GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-06-15 |
Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
121-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@NO to go UNDER the total.
The New Orleans Pelicans are hosting Atlanta tonight, still in search of their first win. It's been a brutal start for Anthony Davis, who is shooting just 37.9 percent from the field during this 0-4 start. He scored 14 points on 3-of-12 shooting in a home loss to Orlando on Tuesday. On a positive note, his defense is as good as it ever was, with 17 blocks in his first four games of the season. The Bookmakers are expecting this to be a high scoring game, with a total well over 200. History tells us otherwise though, as Atlanta has gone under in four straight, and five of it's last seven trips to New Orleans. The Hawks have held opponents under 100 points in five of their six games so far, and they rank 6th in the NBA with an opponents scoring average of 95.3.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-06-15 |
Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 209 |
Top |
98-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Wizards have won three of four to start the season, and they visit a struggling Celtics team tonight. Boston beat the Sixers on Opening Night, but has lost three straight since. Two of those three games failed to reach the total, and the total in tonight's game is much higher than it was in any of Boston's previous 10 games. The Wizards on the other hand have gone over in two of their first four games, but they haven't seen a total as high as it is tonight in any of their previous 10 games. The under is 12-3-1 in Wizards last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They won their last visit to Boston by a score of 101-88, and I expect to see a similar scoreline here in tonight's game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-06-15 |
76ers v. Cavs OVER 193.5 |
Top |
102-108 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Cavs host the Sixers in Cleveland tonight, and this is the second time these teams have met in just a few days. Cleveland just barely won in Philly by a score of 107-100. I expect a similar story here in Cleveland, while even though the Cavs are home, I don't think they are going to take Philly very seriously. They are likely to turn in a half assed effort, knowing they can probably get away with it. The Phillies have covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings in this series, and only one of those games saw a total as low as the number for tonight's game. LeBron is just 2-of-18 from three-point range so far, and he was so frustrated in his last game that he ripped the sleeves off his jersey. The over is 5-1 in 76ers last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I think we'll see a run and gun free flowing game here again tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-06-15 |
Stars v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@CAR to go OVER the total.
The Dallas Stars are coming off a 5-3 win in Boston, and Tyler Seguin put on a show for his former team. Seguin scored a hat trick, and moved into a tie with teammate Jamie Benn for the league lead in points. The Stars rank near the top of the league in goals scored, and they own the best power play unit in the Western Conference, converting on 29.5% of their man advantage chances. The Hurricanes lost 4-3 at home to Tampa in their last game, and they have one of the league's worst defenses. Canes netminder Cam Ward gave up four goals on 31 shots in that game, and he gave up four goals on 27 shots in win over Dallas in his only start versus the Stars last year. These teams have gone over the total in each of the last two meetings, and they've combined to score 35 goals in the last five meetings. The Stars have gone over the total in 14 of their last 20 road games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-05-15 |
Hornets v. Mavs OVER 196 |
Top |
108-94 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHA@DAL to go OVER the total.
After winning two of three on the road to start the season, the Mavs lost their home opener to the Raptors. They might have better luck against another Eastern Conference team tonight, hosting the Charlotte Hornets. Michael Jordan's team is coming off an epic win over his former team, beating the Bulls by a score of 130-105. They shot 51.6 percent from the field, and an even better 60.9 percent from beyond the arc in that game. We should expect this game to be a shootout in Texas, as Dallas has gone over in five of it's last six home games, and Charlotte has trended over at a rate of 10-4-1 in it's last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The total for tonight's game appears to be a little lower than it should be.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-05-15 |
Heat v. Wolves OVER 197 |
Top |
96-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@MIN to go OVER the total.
Minnesota has won two of three to start the season, and this young team has plenty of energy on offense. They have scored over 100 points in two of their first three games so far, including an impressive 112-111 win over the Lakers on Opening Night. We should see plenty of scoring tonight as they host the Miami Heat, who are also looking good early on. PG Goran Dragic has given this team a new life offensively, and he's coming off a big game against the Hawks, scoring 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting, including 3-for-5 from three-point range. The total for tonight's game looks a little low, considering we had seen a total of 200 or higher in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams. They last met in February, and the Wolves won that game by a score of 102-101. Minnesota has gone over in seven of it's last 10 at home, while Miami has seen the total go over in four of it's last five on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-04-15 |
Blazers v. Jazz OVER 190 |
Top |
108-92 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utah Jazz have won two of three, and rank first overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing just 79.7 points per game so far. Before you get too excited, consider that they have played three Eastern Conference teams that all finished near the bottom of the standings a year ago. They host the Blazers tonight, and I think their #1 ranked defense is going to be put to the test. These two teams have gone over the number in four of the last five meetings, and the most recent game was a real high scoring affair. The Jazz won that one by a score of 111-105. Portland has been involved in high scoring games so far this year, with three of their four reaching the number of 200. Tonight's total looks like it's artificially low, based on the Jazz defensive number which are a little dubious. The Jazz have gone over in five of their last seven home games, and six straight versus the Western Conference.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-04-15 |
76ers v. Bucks OVER 195 |
Top |
87-91 |
Loss |
-102 |
23 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been breaking the NBA's futility records in recent seasons, and they are still looking for their first win of the season. The news isn't all bad for Philly though, as they gave LeBron and the Cavs a tough battle in their last game, scoring 100 points on 44.7 percent shooting, albeit in a losing effort. The Sixers are again one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, but not quite as bad as Milwaukee. The Bucks have allowed opponents to average over 110 points while losing three of four. These teams have gone over the total in five of the last seven head to head meetings, and I think the total looks a little low in tonight's game. The Bucks tend to play a wide open game against inferior opposition, with the total going over in 10 of their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-04-15 |
Nets v. Hawks OVER 195.5 |
Top |
87-101 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NBA play on BKN@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Hawks won on the road at Miami last night by a score of 98-92. They've now won four straight since losing at home to the Pistons on Opening Night, and three of those four wins have come on the road. Atlanta is an eight-point favorite at home to Brooklyn in this second leg of a back to back. The Nets have lost all four game so far, and opponents have been torching their defense for 100+ points in all four of those games. History tells us that these two teams trend toward high scoring games, with the total going over in two of the last three meetings. In fact they scored at least 198 points in seven of the last nine in this series. Tonight's total is lower than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings in this series, giving us added value playing the over. The Hawks were one of the highest scoring teams in the East last year, averaging 102.5 points per game. They are just slightly off that pace this year, but they should go over 100 points tonight against a Brooklyn team that has really been struggling on defense.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-04-15 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
98-100 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers picked up their first win of the season in Detroit last night, but might be hard pressed to make it two in a row as they host the Celtics on back to back nights. Indiana is averaging just 93 points per game so far, breaking the century mark just once. Their superstar SF Paul George is a long way from where he was prior to suffering a gruesome injury with Team USA. George shot just 5-of-17 from the field last night, and he's averaging under 17 points per game on .333 shooting so far this season. They have seen the total go under in seven of their last 10 meetings with Boston, and tonight's total is higher than it was in any of those contests. The Celtics have failed to go over the number in all but one of their last seven trips to Indianapolis, and they've gone under in four of their last five when coming off two days rest.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-03-15 |
Flyers v. Oilers OVER 5.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
109 |
19 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@EDM to go OVER the total.
The Flyers are coming off a 4-1 loss at Vancouver last night, their fourth straight loss. They are playing on back to back nights in Edmonton, and the Oilers have lost four of their last five. The Oilers rank 28th overall in the NHL in goals against, and they've surrendered a total of 22 goals in their last five games. The Flyers are also ranked among the worst defensive teams in the league, and they are struggling on special teams as well. Connor McDavid has been every bit as good as he was expected to be, with 12 points in 12 games played. The Oilers haven't had any trouble scoring goals, and their offensive success is likely to continue here against a weary Philly team. The last two times these teams played in Edmonton, overtime was required in each game. Both of those games went over, with a total of 16 goals scored. Expect a similar story here tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-03-15 |
Magic v. Pelicans UNDER 205 |
Top |
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORL@NO to go UNDER the total.
The Orlando Magic and the New Orleans Pelicans will face off in the Big Easy tonight, in a battle of two teams in search of their first win. The Pelicans have had a tough schedule, facing Golden State in a home and home series, and playing on the second leg of a back to back in Portland. This looks like a good spot for New Orleans to get in the win column against a team from the Eastern Conference that has lost 30 of it's last 42 road games. The Magic scored just 87 points in a loss to Chicago on Sunday, and they shot just 38.9 percent from the field in that game. They haven't fared well in recent games against the Pelicans, losing 8 of the last 11 in the series. They've failed to reach the total in 10 of the last 12 visits to the Big Easy, and the total in those 12 games was far lower than the number we see tonight. I think any diagnosis of how bad New Orleans defense is might be a little premature, given two of their three games came against the league's best team.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-03-15 |
Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
94-82 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@DET to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons are off to an impressive start to the season, boasting a 3-0 record, and limiting opponents to just 91.7 points per game so far. They host the Indiana Pacers tonight, and Indiana is 0-3, and they scored just 73 points in a home loss to Utah on Saturday. Indiana shot 40 percent from the field, and just 4-of-17 from beyond the arc. Paul George has really struggled, averaging 17 points per game while shooting just 35 percent from the field, and he's 2-of-13 from three-point range. These teams have actually trended over at a rate of 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, but the total in all of those games was much lower than it is tonight. The Pacers haven't shown any indication that they can compete with top tier opposition, and they are likely going to struggle against the Piston's 4th ranked defense. The under is 23-9 in the Pacers last 32 versus a team with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-03-15 |
Hawks v. Heat OVER 195 |
Top |
98-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Heat are 2-1 coming off a 109-89 home win over the Rockets, and they host the 3-1 Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night. Miami shot 48.8% from the field in the win over Houston, and they hit 9-of-22 from beyond the arc. The Heat did not play well defensively in the first half against the Rockets, surrendering 65 points. The Hawks were involved in a couple of high scoring games to start the season, but have since played a home and home series against Charlotte that failed to reach the total. I expect to see both teams execute on offense here in Miami, and the total looks a little low for a game between two teams of this caliber. Atlanta has gone over the total in five of it's last seven road game, while the Heat have gone over in eight of 11 versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-02-15 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 199.5 |
|
69-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NBA play on MEM@GS to go OVER the total. The Grizzlies are coming off back to back wins that featured some uncharacteristically high point totals. They shot 50% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc in a 112-103 win over the Pacers in Indiana, and then they made a whopping nine three-pointers in a 101-91 win over the Brooklyn Nets. While those are impressive numbers for the Grizzlies, it's a far cry from what Steph Curry and the Warriors have been doing offensively.
Curry dropped 53 points on the Pelicans on Saturday, shooting 8-of-14 from three-point range in a 134-120 win at New Orleans. The Warriors made a total of 17 three point buckets in the victory, and they rank 3rd in the NBA shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc this season.
The Grizzlies ranked 2nd overall in opponent's scoring average last season, and they'll probably be one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. So far though they've allowed opponents to average 100 points per game, and that has them ranked in the middle of the pack. It's perhaps a little early in the season to expect any team to bring the kind of intensity on defense we saw when these teams met in last year's playoffs, and I expect to see both teams play pretty loose here at Oracle Arena tonight. The total is hovering around 200, and that seems a little low considering the Warriors are averaging 119 points per game so far.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-02-15 |
Bucks v. Nets OVER 196.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@BKN to go OVER the total.
Two winless teams will face each other in Brooklyn on Monday, when the Nets host the Milwaukee Bucks at the Barclays Center. The Bucks were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, with an opponent's scoring average of 97.8 points per game. So far this season, they have allowed an average of more than 115 points per game while losing their first three games. The Nets have also been terrible on the defensive side of the ball, giving up over 100 points in all three of their losses. These two teams have combined to score plenty of points in recent meetings, with the total going over the number in five of the last six. They've played four straight overs in Brooklyn, and the Bucks have trended over at a rate of 20-8 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 214 |
Top |
103-93 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@LAL to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers have been on the wrong side of a couple of high scoring games to start the season, losing at home to Minnesota and on the road at Sacramento. They'll likely come into tonight's home game versus Dallas focused on tightening up the defense. These aren't the same Mavs as we've seen in previous seasons, as they lost several high profile players in the off-season. Dirk Nowitzki is an old man, and he is surrounded by a lot less talent. Chandler Parsons has been hampered by a knee injury, and Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews missed the last game with various ailments. Williams is not expected to be ready for tonight's game, but Matthews may be able to go. The Mavs scored just 88 points on 36 percent shooting in the loss to the Clippers, and they shot just 6-of-30 from beyond the arc. The total for tonight's game is astronomically high considering neither team has been shooting the ball very well. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have failed to reach the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Spurs v. Celtics OVER 200 |
Top |
95-87 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Spurs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, and they looked the part in a 102-75 home win over the Nets on Friday. They have scored 100+ points in both their games so far, but they surrendered 112 points in a loss to the Thunder in their season opener. Playing a non-conference road game on a Sunday afternoon this early in the season, we shouldn't expect the Spurs to be at the top of their game here in Boston.
The Celtics are 1-1, coming off a pretty ugly loss to Toronto. They'll be all geared up for this game against an elite team from the big bad Western Conference. Boston managed to score 103 points against the Raptors, even though they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. That says something about the pace of their play on offense. The over is 18-8-1 in Celtics last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Spurs are likely going to have a fight on their hands here at the Garden, and I think both teams score 100+.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Giants v. Saints OVER 49 |
|
49-52 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 41 m |
Show
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This is a Free play on NYG@NO to go OVER the total. New Orleans is coming off back to back upset wins over the Falcons and the Colts. Drew Brees has looked sharp since returning from injury, and he could be in for a big night against the Giants 31st ranked pass defense at home in the Superdome. Keep an eye on running back Mark Ingram as well, the 25 year old out of Alabama ran for a season high 143 yards and a TD against the Colts last week. Brees may have the luxury of having plenty of time to drop back in the pocket, as the Giants are really struggling to get to the quarterback. Just how bad is their pass rush? Well they've been using their backup fullback to fill in with so many injuries on defense. They also just signed Jason Pierre Paul to a contract despite the fact that he only has half of his right hand (the other half was blown off in a fireworks accident).
These teams have played three times since 2009, and they have combined to score more than 70 points in all three of those games. Only two teams in the NFL rank worse than the Saints in total defense, who rank 30th allowing opponents to score an average of 26.4 points per game. The Giants are not much better, ranking 29th, and they are likely going to struggle to stop this Saints offense in the Superdome. Brees threw for 319 yards on 30-of-39 passing in a 31-21 win over the Falcons in his last home game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Flames v. Oilers OVER 5.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
107 |
21 h 11 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CGY@EDM to go over the total. The Edmonton Oilers defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-3 Thursday to end a three-game slide. Defense remains an issue though as they've conceded 34 goals over 11 games this season, but that's still miles better than the Calgary Flames' 46 allowed over as many games. The Flames have been woeful in the defensive zone all season and might be compelled to go with Karri Ramo (4.38 GAA) tonight as Jonas Hiller is out injured and Joni Ortio was between the pipes in last night's 6-2 loss to the Canadiens at Bell Centre. Whoever is in the crease will have to deal with the Oilers hyped up rookie Connor McDavid who has lived up to his reputation and recorded five goals and seven assists for a team-leading 12 points so far this season. The total has gone over in five of Calgary's last seven games when playing Edmonton the lone meeting this season went over when the Oilers won 5-2 at the Saddledome on Oct. 17. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Nets v. Grizzlies OVER 190 |
Top |
91-101 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on BKN@MEM to go OVER the total. The Memphis Grizzlies bounced back from an Opening Night loss to Cleveland by beating the Pacers in Indiana by a score of 112-103. The Grizzlies shot 50% from the field in the win over the Pacers, and 43.8% from three-point range. They host the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and Brooklyn is coming off back to back losses to San Antonio and Chicago. The Nets gave up 100+ points in both of those games, and they have gone over in five straight when playing on 0 days rest. I think the number looks a little low here so early in the season, especially given that neither team has looked all that sharp defensively. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Penguins v. Maple Leafs OVER 5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-133 |
18 h 11 m |
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This is a 10* play on PIT@TOR to go OVER the total. The Leafs made some noise in the off-season, dealing Phil Kessel to the Penguins and bringing in Mike Babcock as the new head coach. They've struggled out of the gates, losing eight of their first nine games of the season. It doesn't get any easier tonight, as they host the surging Pittsburgh Penguins who have won six of their last seven. This marks the return of Phil Kessel, who already looks pretty good playing alongside the likes of Malkin and Crosby. Don't be surprised of Kessel lights the lamp a few times here in Toronto tonight. The Pens have won six straight in this series, and four of their last five in Toronto. The Leafs rank 27th in the NHL in goals against, and Jonathan Bernier is still looking for his first victory with a record of 0-5-1, 2.84 GAA. He's 0-4-2 in six career starts versus Pittsburgh. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 205 |
Top |
117-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on NYK@WAS to go UNDER the total. The Washington Wizards will host the New York Knicks on Saturday night, looking to go 3-0 after picking up wins on the road at Milwaukee and Orlando. The Wizards have won seven straight against the Knicks, going 5-1-1 ATS in those games. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total, and Washington has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last eight when playing on 0 days rest. The Wizards were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last year, allowing opponents to average just 97.8 points per game. The Knicks have scored 100+ points in both their first two games of the season, but they are likely to struggle on offense here in the nation's capital. They've seen the total go under in seven of their last 10 versus teams with a winning record. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Predators v. Kings UNDER 5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
15 h 10 m |
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This is a 10* play on NAS@LAK to go UNDER the total.
The Kings opened the season with three straight losses, but they've turned things around, winning six straight. During that span they have only surrendered a total of six goals. Jonathan Quick was between the pipes for five of those games, posting a 0.99 GAA. The Kings host the Nashville Predators in a matinee at the Staples Center Saturday, and we should see a low scoring tilt between two teams that rank 1st and 2nd in the league in goals against. Low scoring games are the norm in Los Angels, as the under is 12-3-3 in Kings last 18 home games. The Kings have been one of the league's best home teams over the last three seasons, and they've won 20 of their last 26 at home versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-31-15 |
Nebraska v. Purdue UNDER 54 |
Top |
45-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 13 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on NEB@PUR to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Cornhuskers versus the Boilermakers in Indiana. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- Tommy Armstrong has been the Huskers biggest weapon on offense, both with his arm as well as his legs. He's thrown for over 2000 yards and 16 TDs this season, but he will not suit up here against Purdue as he's sidelined by a foot injury. - The under is 20-9 in Cornhuskers last 29 games on grass. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-30-15 |
Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 210.5 |
|
95-78 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on MIN@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The Nuggets used to have one of the best home records in the NBA, but that's no longer the case for a team that is undergoing a rebuild. The did shock the Rockets on Opening Night though, winning by a score of 105-85. It was an impressive effort on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, limiting Houston to just 34.5 percent shooting. They host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Pepsi Center tonight, and I think the total looks a little too high here. The Nuggets were known as a team that was involved in a lot of high scoring games, but under new head coach with a much different roster, that might change. They saw six of their seven pre-season games fail to reach a total of 210 points. The only exception was a 114-103 win over the Warriors at Oracle Arena.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-30-15 |
Nets v. Spurs UNDER 204 |
|
75-102 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 41 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on BKN@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs host Brooklyn in their home opener on Friday, and this game likely to be a blowout. The Nets lost their home opener to Chicago, and they really didn't look good at all in that game. Perimeter shooting was a complete disaster, as Brooklyn went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in the loss to the Bulls. Joe Johnson looked particularly rusty, scoring just 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting. It's going to be tough to break out of a slump on the road in San Antonio, against a Spurs team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average last season. These two teams have trended under in recent meetings, failing to go over the total in eight of the last 10. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio, and the under is 12-3-1 in Spurs last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-30-15 |
Wizards v. Bucks OVER 196.5 |
|
118-113 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on WAS@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Bucks didn't look very sharp in an Opening Night loss to the Knicks. They did match New York with nine made three-pointers, but lost by a score of 122-97. They host the Washington Wizards tonight, and Washington needed a bucket at the buzzer to sneak past Orlando by a score of 88-87 in their opening game. These teams have scored plenty of points in recent meetings, with the total going over at a rate of 9-3-1 in the last 13 in the series. Washington has scored at least 100 points in eight of it's last nine versus Milwaukee, and the Wizards have won four of the last five. Washington has gone over the total in six of it's last seven when coming off a win.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-29-15 |
Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 50.5 |
|
7-36 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 7 m |
Show
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This is a 2-Team (7-Point) Teaser with NE + OVER.
The Patriots continue to roll, coming off a 30-23 win over the Jets on Sunday. So what did we learn from that game? Most people would say that if the Patriots can score 30 points against the Jets defense, they can do it against anybody. The one thing that I noticed about that game was how the Patriots played with a lead in the fourth quarter. New England was in front 23-20, deep inside Jets territory with under two minutes to play. The book says you run the ball three times, burn up as much clock as possible, and if you can get a first down the game is over. That's exactly what we would have seen from any other NFL team in that situation, because the worst case scenario (barring a turnover) would be that you kick a chip shot FG to go up by six, and hand the ball back with just seconds on the clock forcing the other team to drive the length of the field for a TD.
The Pats did the unthinkable, allowing Tom Brady to drop back in the shotgun, and throw on every down. Not surprisingly they ended up tacking on another TD and went up by 10. While they increased their lead, the game was still far from over. The Jets then marched down the field and kicked a 55 yard field goal, and then executed a successful onside kick. This meant that New York still had a chance, whereas the game would have been over if the Pats could have just picked up 10 yards with three running plays.
Keep in mind, the Miami defense they are facing tonight is nowhere near as good statistically as the Jets. Miami is coming off consecutive wins, giving them a bit of swagger in their step. Those wins came against two of the league's bottom feeders though, and even in last week's blowout win over the Texans, Brian Hoyer lit them up for 273 yards, and three second half TDs.
The Dolphins have been out-scored 96-30 losing three straight in their last three trips to Foxboro, and going back further, they have lost 12 of their last 14 to the Pats.
Take NE+OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-29-15 |
Grizzlies v. Pacers UNDER 188 |
Top |
112-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 25 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on MEM@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies sure looked rusty in their home opener, shooting just 35% from the field, and 12% from beyond the arc in a 106-76 loss to Cleveland. They play their second game in as many nights on the road at Indiana on Thursday night, and this is hardly an ideal spot to break out of a shooting slump. The Pacers didn't look much better, shooting just 37% in a loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Paul George was just 4-of-17 from the field scoring 17 points, and he's averaged just 10 points per game since returning from a broken leg. Memphis has done a good job shutting down George, who has averaged just 11.4 points per game on just 35% shooting lifetime versus the Grizzlies. History tells us that this should be a low scoring game, as five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone under, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Indiana.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 205.5 |
Top |
94-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
43 h 17 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on NO@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Pelicans opened the season on the road in Oakland last night, losing to the defending champion Warriors by a score of 111-95. Even after the two teams combined to score 74 points in the first quarter, they came up well short of the inflated total. They held the Warriors to just 20 points in the second quarter and 17 in the final frame. They have a history of playing low scoring games versus the Blazers, going under in each of the last four meetings. The under trends don't stop there, as the Pelicans have gone under in nine of their last 12 when playing on back to back nights, and Portland has trended under at rate of 23-10-2 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This number looks just a little too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 202.5 |
|
111-95 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 32 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on DAL@PHX to go OVER the total.
The Mavericks will open the season on the road in Phoenix, and they are coming off a pretty dismal showing this pre-season. The Mavs lost all seven games, and four of those losses came by a double digit margin. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over in five of the last seven in the series. Four of the Mavericks last five visits to Phoenix have resulted in the total going over the number. Tonight's total is much lower than it was in any of those previous meetings, and I expect to see a typical fast paced game. This number looks a little too low.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Cavs v. Grizzlies OVER 188.5 |
Top |
106-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
41 h 17 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CLE@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Cavs came up just short in Chicago on opening night, losing 97-95 to the Bulls. While the first half saw both teams combine to score just 86 points, we saw a flurry of scoring in the second half, pushing the total over the number. The Cavs are playing on back to back nights in Memphis tonight, and the Grizzlies have a reputation as a team that plays a lot of low scoring games. We see a really low number here in this game, and I think this early in the season we might not see vintage Memphis defense. We haven't seen these teams struggle offensively in previous meetings, with nine of the last 10 in Memphis going over the total. Going back further, 20 of the last 29 head to head matchups have gone over the listed total. This number looks just a little too low for me.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks OVER 192 |
Top |
122-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
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his is a 10* play on NYK@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Knicks won four of six during the pre-season, and they scored more than 100 points in three of those four wins. They begin the season on the road in Milwaukee, and these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. Five of he last seven head to head meetings have gone over the listed total, and the total has gone over in five of the Knicks last seven trips to Milwaukee. The Bucks have gone over the total in seven of their last 10 when playing three days rest. The Knicks were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, allowing opponents to average over 101 points per game. It's unlikely that has changed over the off-season, and I don't expect them to shut down a solid Milwaukee team at home. The number here looks a little on the low side.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Jazz v. Pistons OVER 188 |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
41 h 48 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on DET@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Jazz lost four of their final pre-games of the pre-season, and they gave up over 100 points in three of those four losses. They visit the Pistons in their season opener, and Detroit is coming off an upset win over the Hawks in Atlanta last night. The Pistons made a dozen three point shots, out-scoring Atlanta 106-94. Getting right back on the court in their second game in as many nights probably isn't bad thing as they look to remain hot. The Jazz have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine trips to Detroit, and the Pistons have trended over at a rate of 9-1-2 in their last 12 home games. The number looks a little low here, and I just don't see either team grinding it out on defense this early in the season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-28-15 |
Wizards v. Magic UNDER 206 |
|
88-87 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 20 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on WAS@ORL to go UNDER the total.
The Wizards open the season on the road versus Orlando, and they've won eight straight versus the Magic. The majority of those games were low scoring, with the total going under in six of the last nine. The Wizards failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 16 visits to Orlando, and we could see both teams shaking off a little rust here tonight. Washington was one of the league's best defensive teams last season, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency. The Magic have gone under in five of their last six when playing on at least three days rest. The number here looks a little too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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