Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Twins last night as they rallied late but they coughed up a two-run lead before falling in 11 innings. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Wednesday, however. We have a fine starting pitching matchup in this one as the Guardians send Triston McKenzie to the hill against Sonny Gray of the Twins. McKenzie has generally pitched well this season but continues to have a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings including 10 over his last six outings. The Twins have hit 48 home runs in 35 games at home this season compared to just 30 in 34 road contests. Note also that McKenzie has posted a 1-3 team record in four career starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Sonny Gray has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings of work. Opponents are averaging just under 2.1 runs per nine innings against the veteran right hander. You would have to go back five starts to find the last time Cleveland defeated Gray. The Guardians may have a slight edge in terms of the two bullpens although it's been virtually a wash as far as the numbers go over the last seven games with Cleveland's 'pen posting a 1.12 WHIP and Minnesota countering with a 1.08 WHIP. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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06-22-22 | Yankees -134 v. Rays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays evened this series at a game apiece with a narrow victory last night. I look for the Yankees to answer back on Wednesday. Jordan Montgomery is sometimes the forgotten arm in the Yankees outstanding starting rotation. He's coming off another fine outing against a tough Blue Jays lineup in Toronto and checks in sporting a 3.54 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging a paltry 2.7 runs per nine innings off the left-hander. Tampa Bay will give Shane Baz another turn in the rotation on Wednesday. The Yankees did see him once last season, chasing him after only 2 2/3 innings. Baz has worked only 8 1/3 innings this season so you can take his 3.97 FIP and 0.96 WHIP with a grain of salt as far as I'm concerned. Note that his walks have already crept up, averaging 3.2 per nine innings while opponents have averaged 5.4 runs per nine innings off of him. The bullpens have virtually been a wash lately but I believe the Yankees starting pitching and hitting edges should be enough here. Take New York (8*). |
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06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals shut out the Orioles in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Baltimore holds a substantial starting pitching edge. You have to wonder how many more opportunities we'll get to fade Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 4.83 FIP and 1.78 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 7.9 runs per nine innings. The Orioles aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now but they do average 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, going 13-13 compared to 17-26 against right-handers. Tyler Wells will counter for Baltimore. He has posted a 4.31 FIP and 1.07 WHIP, allowing 4.7 fewer hits and 1.7 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Corbin. The O's should have the edge in the later innings as well as their bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven games. The Washington 'pen sports a 6.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Phillies -130 v. Rangers | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers crushed the Phillies by a 7-0 score last night, handing Philadelphia its second straight loss. I look for the Phillies to bounce back on Wednesday afternoon, at least early on. Philadelphia has a substantial edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup with Zack Wheeler taking the ball against Jon Gray of the Rangers. Wheeler has been his usual dominant self this season, posting a 2.31 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. Opponents are reaching him for just north of 2.9 runs per nine innings. While Jon Gray comes off consecutive solid outings, that's about as much as we can expect from the veteran right-hander. Note that he has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Gray checks in allowing 1.5 additional walks per nine innings compared to Wheeler. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid tempting fate with a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.39 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with six blown saves (compared to eight converted) on the road this season. Take Philadelphia first five innings (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Blue Jays -108 v. White Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays have dropped the first two games in this series and while Ross Stripling might not appear to be the right starter to turn things around on Wednesday, I actually like the matchup here. Stripling has held up well as a back-of-the-rotation option this season, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. He ran into trouble in his most recent outing but that came against the hot-hitting Yankees. Here, he'll have the benefit of starting against the White Sox for the first time in his career. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago. His FIP has climbed all the way to 4.86 while his WHIP sits at 1.49. Giolito probably carries a more favorable reputation than Stripling but the numbers don't bear out such a stance this season, noting that he's allowed 1.9 more hits, 1.4 more home runs and 2.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Stripling this season. Behind Stripling is a Blue Jays bullpen that coughed up a ninth-inning lead last night and has generally struggled lately. However, it's worth noting that the White Sox 'pen hasn't exactly been lights out at home this season, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with nine saves converted and eight blown. Take Toronto (8*). |
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06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners may be struggling but a trip to Oakland to face the lowly A’s should help them bust out of their slump. Marco Gonzales will take the ball for Seattle on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great this season by any means but they’re without question superior to those of Tuesday's opposing starter, James Kaprielian. Gonzales has recorded a 5.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while Kaprielian checks in with a 6.49 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners left-hander should be happy to see the A's, noting that he owns a career 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts against them with Seattle winning 10 of those games. Kaprielian had a nice rookie campaign last season but hasn't been able to get on track in 2022, particularly at home where he owns a 7.42 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts, spanning only 17 innings of work. While the team has had a tough time, Seattle’s bullpen has held up well recently, entering this series with a 1.00 WHIP over its last seven games. The Mariners bats have been quiet but their 3.8 per game scoring average away from home this season is still far better than Oakland’s 2.4 runs per contest at home. Noting that Seattle is 9-3 in its last 12 games played here in Oakland, I look for it to take advantage of this opportunity to right the ship, even just for one night, on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings only in this game as the Brewers do hold advantages in the later innings in this one with a bullpen that has posted a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over their last seven contests. In the early innings, I expect it to be all Cards as they give Jack Flaherty his second start since returning from the I.L. on Tuesday. Flaherty wasn't particularly effective in his first outing against the Pirates last week but did get loose with a three-inning outing, allowing three hits, two walks, two earned runs while striking out three. I expect him to work a little deeper into this contest and I'm confident he can handle the Brewers lineup, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing just two earned runs in 12 innings. Milwaukee will trot out waiver-wire pick-up Chi Chi Gonzalez. He'll be pitching for his third club since last season after getting cut loose by the Rockies and Twins. Neither of those teams have particularly strong pitching staffs to begin with so the fact that he was unable to stick should raise red flags. He's only in Milwaukee out of necessity as the Brewers have Freddy Peralta on the I.L. Gonzalez owns a career 5.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. In two starts with the Twins this season he was tagged for 12 hits and six earned runs over seven innings of work. The Cards bats were quiet against Corbin Burnes last night but I look for them to come alive early in this one. Take St. Louis first five innings (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Guardians v. Twins -160 | 6-5 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Aaron Civale is expected to make his return from a thigh injury as the Guardians open a series in Minnesota on Tuesday. Civale wasn’t pitching particularly well prior to going down to injury, recording a 4.97 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in seven starts. Opponents have run up the score against him, averaging a ridiculous 9.0 runs per nine innings. Twins starter Joe Ryan knows a thing or two about returning from injury as he did so in his last start against the Mariners last week. Ryan checks in with a respectable 3.73 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.6 hits fewer per nine innings compared to Civale this season. We’re not talking about all that different of a sample size as Ryan has made just two more starts than Civale. Also worth noting, opponents are averaging fewer than 3.0 runs per nine innings off of Ryan this season. The Guardians are playing well for sure, but I’m willing to bet the Twins cool them off at Target Field on Tuesday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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06-21-22 | Cubs v. Pirates -150 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll fade Matt Swarmer again here, just as we did in his last outing, as he makes is fifth start of the season. The rookie right-hander has posted an ugly 8.74 FIP through his first 20+ innings of work this season, allowing north of four home runs and 6.5 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Pirates starter Roansy Contreras as he’s been making the most of his opportunities, recording a 3.87 FIP while allowing only 3.9 runs per nine innings through eight appearances including five starts. While far from dominant, the right-hander has done a nice job of keeping his team in the game in all five of his starts this season. The Buccos should also have the advantage in the later innings in this one as Chicago’s bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over its last seven games, covering a span of 28 innings. The Cubs are a losing team on the road this season and I expect them to fall short again here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Kansas City at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels have quietly gotten back on track following a miserable stretch, winning four of their last five games entering Monday's series opener against the Royals. They'll have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitchers in this one as they send Noah Syndergaard to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Syndergaard has turned in a couple of shaky outings but for the most part, has delivered for his new club, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He's been at his best here at home, where he checks in sporting a 1.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings. His counterpart on Monday hasn't been nearly as effective. Bubic owns an ugly 5.66 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. Opponents are lighting him up to the tune of 8.4 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bats have been relatively quiet aside from Mike Trout, I look for a breakout performance against the Royals pitching staff here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -173 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. While the Tigers are coming off consecutive wins, those came at the expense of one of the league's most disappointing teams in the Texas Rangers. Detroit still checks in just 2-6 over its last eight games and 9-18 on the road this season, where it averages just 2.3 runs per game. Boston has been arguably the best team in baseball since mid-May and is fresh off another series victory over the Cardinals. While the Red Sox wouldn't appear to have any sort of substantial edge in terms of tonight's starting pitching matchup, I'm comfortable supporting rookie Josh Winckowski in his third start of the season. I like the fact that his two previous starts have also come at Fenway Park. He certainly looked comfortable pitching here last time out as he tossed five shutout innings against the A's and will face a similar challenge against the light-hitting Tigers here. Alex Faedo counters for Detroit. He owns a 4.40 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season. This will be arguably his toughest test to date and he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting lit up to the tune of seven earned runs on nine hits over three innings against the White Sox last time out. While the Tigers bullpen was one of their only redeeming qualities earlier in the season, it has struggled lately, posting a 6.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Boston (8*). |
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06-20-22 | Marlins v. Mets -151 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets ran into the Marlins best starting pitcher yesterday in Sandy Alcantara and fell by a 6-2 score. I look for them to answer back in Monday's series-finale. While New York doesn't have a considerable starting pitcher advantage in this matchup, I do rate David Peterson slightly better than Trevor Rogers this season. Peterson checks in with a 1.33 WHIP compared to Rogers' 1.64. It's also worth noting that Peterson has allowed 2.7 fewer hits and 0.8 fewer home runs per nine innings this season. Neither starter has proven capable of working deep into ball games which could lead to a battle of the bullpens here. In that department, I do give New York the advantage as its 'pen has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP here at home this season. By contrast, the Marlins relief corps has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |
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06-18-22 | Phillies -208 v. Nationals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies will hand the ball to Aaron Nola on Saturday afternoon as the Nationals counter with Josiah Gray. Nola has quietly put together a fine campaign so far, recording a 3.09 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in 13 starts. Gray has been a train wreck for the Nats and is fortunate to get another turn in the rotation. He has posted a 5.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.2 walks per nine innings while giving up just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Philadelphia entered yesterday's double-header averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Nats averaged just 3.6 runs per contest at home. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles have been a 'tough out' all season and proved to be so again last night as they outlasted the Rays by a 1-0 score. I look for the Rays to answer back on Saturday against perhaps the Orioles weakest starting pitcher in Kyle Bradish. Bradish owns a 5.61 FIP and 1.67 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday will be Jeffrey Springs, who has recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.91 WHIP. Springs has given up 5.4 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bradish this season. Note that Bradish is allowing a whopping 7.1 runs per nine innings. Tampa Bay has now lost four games in a row but if they're to break that skid in Baltimore, this looks like the best matchup to do so. Note that despite the 1-0 loss last night, the Rays are still 28-8 in their last 36 matchups with Baltimore. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Twins continue to quietly rack up victories, now nine games over .500 on the season. They'll hand the ball to left-hander Devin Smeltzer on Friday as he looks to continue what has been a terrific 2022 campaign to this point. While Smeltzer isn't flashy by any means - he isn't going to set opposing lineups on fire with strikeouts - he has been consistently delivering, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. His 4.91 FIP leaves a lot to be desired but his 0.97 WHIP tells a different story. The fact is, opponents have averaged just 2.38 runs per nine innings off of the southpaw this season. D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner got off to a nice start this season but has been unsteady lately, recording a 3.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last three trips to the hill. His FIP has ballooned north of 5.0 and opponents are averaging 4.2 runs per nine innings against him. He checks in allowing 2.1 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Smeltzer. Both bullpens have held up well lately but I give the Twins offense a considerable edge in this matchup, noting that they average 4.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Snakes check in averaging just 3.7 runs per contest at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-17-22 | White Sox v. Astros -166 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox absolutely laid waste to a reeling Tigers club in a three-game series earlier this week. I expect them to find the going a little tougher in Houston, however. Lucas Giolito has had a tough time regaining past form here in 2022, posting a 4.44 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, giving up well north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Astros starter Framber Valdez has been the picture of consistency, checking in with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three outings. For the season, Valdez has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He's giving up 2.5 fewer hits and 1.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Giolito. We'll give the Astros bullpen the edge here as well as they've posted a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only four blown this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -128 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers smashed the Mets by a 10-2 score last night, taking full advantage of a pitching mismatch that featured Corbin Burnes against David Peterson. Here, the starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash, but I prefer backing the Mets bats, at home no less, where they've generally been dominant this season and have certainly thrived in a bounce-back role. I like the improvement we've seen from Mets starter Tylor Megill following his rookie campaign. He's posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, going 4-2 in eight outings. Aaron Ashby has posted similar numbers in his sophomore campaign for the Brewers but his 4.1 walks per nine innings, not to mention his reliance on strikeouts (11 per nine innings) concern me. Take New York (8*). |
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06-16-22 | Rangers -134 v. Tigers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off a tough series against the Astros, including a beatdown on Wednesday. I look for them to bounce back with a rejuvenated Martin Perez taking the hill in Detroit on Thursday. Perez has done more than just turn back the clock this season as he's never looked as good as he has in 2022. He checks into Thursday's start sporting a 2.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. He's allowed just 0.2 home runs per nine innings and should relish the opportunity to face the light-hitting Tigers here. Beau Brieske will counter for Detroit. He won his first career game against Toronto last time out but I suspect he'll have difficult stringing together another quality outing here. Note that Brieske has recorded a poor 6.06 FIP in nine starts spanning 47 2/3 innings of work this season and faces a Rangers lineup that has performed better on the road than at home this season. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Phillies -200 v. Nationals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies just keep finding ways to win while the Nationals are about as down-trodden as it gets following a series sweep at the hands of another N.L. East opponent, the red hot Atlanta Braves. I like the starting pitching edge the Phils hold in the opener of this series on Thursday as they send Zack Wheeler to the hill against Pat Corbin. Wheeler finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and he's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 2.13 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Contrast that with Corbin, who owns a 4.56 FIP and 1.73 WHIP, allowing north of 12 hits while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings. While backing the Phillies bullpen is rarely fun, I'm not sure their relief corps will be asked to do too much on Thursday. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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06-16-22 | Padres -192 v. Cubs | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have been beating up on the Cubs all week long at Wrigley Field and I expect nothing different on Thursday. San Diego once again has a considerable starting pitching edge here with early N.L. Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove taking the hill. He's enjoying a career year, having posted a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. It quite simply doesn't get much better. While Cubs starter Matt Swarmer has made only three starts spanning 17 innings of work, his 8.79 FIP is alarming. He's been getting crushed by the long ball, allowing just shy of five home runs per nine innings. While those numbers are sure to come down as he gets more work in, I'm still not convinced he can outduel Musgrove or quiet the Padres hot bats on Thursday. Take San Diego (6*). |
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06-15-22 | Braves -170 v. Nationals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Another tough matchup for the Nationals on Wednesday as they send Erick Fedde to the mound against Braves impressive rookie starter Spencer Strider. Fedder is having another difficult campaign having posted a 4.56 FIP and 1.54 WHIP. That FIP actually represents an improvement over his career mark of 5.09. Fedde is allowing north of nine hits and four walks per nine innings which obviously spells trouble against a loaded Braves lineup, even with Ozzie Albies now on the shelf. Spencer Strider will be making his fourth start of the season and while we're talking about a relatively small sample size, his numbers are still impressive. He has recorded a 2.00 FIP to go along with a 1.12 WHIP. While his 4.5 walks per nine innings are a concern, they've been negated by his ability to strike out opposing hitters (13.4 per nine innings) and give up few hits (5.6 per nine innings). Take Atlanta (8*). |
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06-11-22 | Brewers -159 v. Nationals | 6-8 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Brewers finally have a true pitching mismatch in their favor on Saturday as they look to end their ugly seven-game losing streak. The Nats are just 8-12 against left-handed starters this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 runs in those games. They'll face a southpaw in Eric Lauer on Saturday. Lauer has posted a 3.68 FIP this season, compared to Patrick Corbin's 4.23 ledger. Lauer has also recorded a solid 1.11 WHIP. For his part, Corbin has posted a poor 1.76 WHIP. Layer also checks in allowing nearly five fewer hits while recording almost three more strikeouts per nine innings this season. Go up and down the list of categories and Lauer has been vastly superior to Corbin and I expect him to help the Brew Crew right the ship on Saturday afternoon. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Brewers -157 v. Nationals | 5-11 | Loss | -157 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching mismatch we have here with Aaron Ashby going for the reeling Brewers against Erick Fedde of the lowly Nationals. Both pitchers have logged a similar number of innings this season with Ashby working 46 and Fedde going 51 2/3. While Ashby has recorded a 3.16 FIP, Fedde checks in sporting a 4.44 FIP. Ashby allows 2.6 fewer hits per nine innings, slightly fewer home runs and walks per nine innings as well. He also averages 4.2 more strikeouts per nine innings than Fedde. While the Brewers have certainly been slumping, they are getting healthier with Willy Adames the most notable hitter to return to the lineup this week (he homered in yesterday's loss). They'll probably be happy to get on the road at this point after a miserable homestand that saw them drop six consecutive games after opening a series against the Padres with a win over a week ago. Milwaukee was able to get a head start to Washington following a matinee affair on Thursday while the Nationals travel north following a night game to wrap up their series in Miami. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -157 | 8-3 | Loss | -157 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers welcomed Willy Adames back to the lineup last night, but it wasn't close to enough as Milwaukee dropped its fifth consecutive game, falling 10-0 against the Phillies. Not only will the team be looking to bounce back on Thursday, but starting pitcher Corbin Burnes in particular. He was shelled over 3 2/3 innings against the Padres last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits. Chalk that up as an anomaly as Burnes still owns a 0.99 WHIP in five home starts this season. Better still, he has posted a 2.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 11 outings overall. That WHIP drops to 0.88 in four afternoon starts. Phillies starter Zach Eflin will look to make it four out of his last five quality outings, however, his only success this season has come at home. In four road outings he has posted a ridiculous 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Here, we'll note that the Phillies are just 9-20 when playing on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough matchup for Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. The Brewers will be getting their second look at him this season. While they didn't have a ton of success against him last time around (they lost that game 4-2 in Philadelphia on April 22nd), it's not as if Suarez was dominant. He allowed four hits and issued three walks while striking out four over 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in that game. I say it's a difficult matchup because Suarez has dealt with some command issues, particularly of late, as he's handed out seven walks in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts and now faces a Brewers squad that ranks second in baseball in most pitches seen this season. In that vein, no team takes more first pitches than Milwaukee. They should be able to get Suarez's pitch count up early in this one and ultimately get into the Phillies weak bullpen fairly early. Note that Philadelphia's relief corps has posted a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown on the road this season. Contrast that with the Brewers bullpen, which has recorded a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting six saves while blowing just one here at home. Milwaukee will hand the ball to rookie Jason Alexander as he makes his second big league start. His first went well as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings in a tough environment at Wrigley Field in Chicago. He should benefit from facing a Phillies club that ranks eight-worst in the majors in terms of chase percentage (that's the percentage of pitches outside of the zone that Phillies hitters swing at). Also note that Philadelphia ranks seventh-worst in the league in whiff percentage (percentage of pitches they swing-and-miss on without contact). Milwaukee is desperate for a win here off three straight losses to the Padres while Philadelphia is in a pretty obvious letdown spot off Sunday's stunning rally that helped complete a sweep of the reeling Angels and lead to a fourth straight win. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Diamondbacks +129 v. Reds | 8-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds routed the D'Backs in a rain-shortened seven-inning affair last night. I look for the Snakes to answer back on Tuesday. The only real difference between tonight's two young starting pitchers is the fact that Arizona left-hander Tyler Gilbert has a little more experience as he'll be making his ninth career big league start compared to Graham Ashcraft for the Reds who will toe the rubber for his fourth career start. Note that the Reds are just 6-11 against left-handed starters this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in those contests. Ashcraft has pitched well in his first three outings but as time goes on opposing hitters will have a better idea of what to expect at the dish. Note that while he has given up just three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings as a starter this season he's only struck out nine while walking five. This will be his second time in the last three turns in the rotation starting on just four days' rest. Take Arizona (8*). |
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06-07-22 | Rangers +104 v. Guardians | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Cleveland at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers suffered an excruciating loss against the Mariners on Sunday so perhaps last night's rain-out in Cleveland was a blessing in disguise as it gets them a little farther removed from that bad taste in their mouths. I don't really see any particular reason for the Guardians to be favored here in Game 1 of Tuesday's day-night double-header, noting that they're just 3-6 with Cal Quantrill on the mound this season, a stunning ledger when you consider how solid he's been all things considered. It has everything to do with the Guardians inability to consistently score runs and I suspect that could be a problem again this afternoon. Jon Gray has seemingly gotten stronger as the season goes on for the Rangers, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts. Interestingly, Texas has fared better on the road than at Globe Life Field, going an even 12-12 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 runs per game. We'll take a flyer on the Rangers in an underdog role here. Take Texas (8*). |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros -154 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners are 4-2 on their current road trip, delivering consecutive series victories over the Orioles and Rangers. Texas essentially handed Seattle the win yesterday, with a wild pitch resulting in the winning run in extra innings. I don't expect Houston to be in as giving of a mood on Monday. Note that the Astros have owned this series at home in recent years, taking 16 of 20 meetings at Minute Maid Park over the last three seasons. They swept the Mariners in a three-game series here at home earlier this season. With that being said, Seattle took two of three games from Houston in the Pacific Northwest last weekend so the Astros will be revenge-minded here. Robbie Ray won the American League Cy Young Award last year so the Mariners obviously expected big things from their offseason acquisition. However, to this point, the marriage hasn't gone well as Ray has posted a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Worse still, on the road he's recorded a 5.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Astros check in 14-4 against left-handed starters this season. Cristian Javier will take teh ball for Houston. He loves facing the Mariners having yet to allow a single earned run in three previous starts against them, covering a span of 18 1/3 innings. Javier has made three home starts this season, posting a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Behind Javier is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work, converting six saves while blowing just one. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Astros -220 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros got pummelled by the Royals yesterday, suffering a 6-0 defeat. I expect them to bounce right back on Sunday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill. Valdez is coming off a complete game victory in Oakland last time out. Incredibly by today's pitching standards, Valdez has worked at least seven innings in four straight starts. The Astros have won each of his last five trips to the hill. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here and noting that he owns a 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six road starts this season, I expect him to fare well in this one. On the other side, Jon Heasley has lasted six innings just once in seven career big league starts. He hasn't been able to keep runners off the bases this season, issuing 16 walks and giving up 18 hits in just 19 1/3 innings. He's not a strikeout pitcher either, having topped out at five in his four outings this season. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season and this has all the makings of a rout. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
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06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -117 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays added to the White Sox woes with a 6-3 drubbing last night. Chicago has now dropped four games in a row while Tampa Bay checks in on a three-game winning streak. While the pitching matchup looks like a wash on paper, I'll give Drew Rasmussen the edge at home on Saturday. The Rays have quietly gone 8-2 in his 10 starts this season and he has posted a stellar 2.10 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home outings. While the White Sox will be getting their second look at Rasmussen this season, the Rays will also be seeing Chicago starter Dylan Cease for the second time. They'll be out for revenge after dropping a 3-2 decision against Cease and the White Sox in Chicago back in mid-April. Note that Cease's lone previous start here in St. Petersburg didn't go so well as he allowed four earned runs and lasted just five innings in a 4-2 defeat back in 2019. As far as the bullpens go, it's no contest in terms of recent form. The Rays 'pen has recorded five saves while blowing just one over their last seven games. Here at home Tampa's relief corps has posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 11 saves converted and three blown. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Cardinals +105 v. Cubs | Top | 14-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. The Cubs got the better of the Cardinals in the opener of this series last night but I think they'll be in tough trying to make it two in a row against their division rivals on Friday. Marcus Stroman will make his third consecutive start on four days' rest after matching a season-high going seven innings in his last outing. He's struggled mightily in three home starts this season, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Cardinals saw him twice last season and had some success, scoring six runs, four of them earned, in 11 innings - both victories. Miles Mikolas struggled in his most recent start for St. Louis but his overall numbers are terrific this season. He's allowed a single earned run or less in five of his last six starts against Chicago and the Cards have won six of his nine career outings in this matchup. The bullpen matchup is virtually a wash overall this season but not recently as the Cubs relief corps has been awful over the last week or so, entering last night's contest sporting a 6.96 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-02-22 | Mets v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Sometimes a series just doesn't go the way you planned and that was certainly the case for the Dodgers against the Pirates as they were inexplicably swept, culminating with an 8-4 loss last night. Look for the Boys in Blue to bounce right back on Thursday as they welcome the red hot Mets to Chavez Ravine. New York has won six straight games entering this series, with all six victories coming at home - consecutive sweeps of the Phillies and Nationals. Taijuan Walker will start for New York on Thursday. He's shown a tremendous day-night dichotomy this season. In two daytime outings, spanning 14 innings, he hasn't allowed a single earned run. Nighttime outings have been a different story, however, as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 24 hits in just 21 innings of work. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. Forget the likes of Julio Urias, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw (who has been on the shelf for a while now), Gonsolin has arguably been the Dodgers best starter this season. He's been particularly sharp here at home, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four starts, covering 21 innings of work. Look for him to help Los Angeles snap its losing skid here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-31-22 | Twins -145 v. Tigers | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Tigers got past the Twins by a 7-5 score yesterday afternoon - a rare offensive outburst from Detroit, which averages just a shade over 3.0 runs per game at home this season. I look for Minnesota to answer back in Game 1 of Tuesday's day-night double-header. Devin Smeltzer will get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He's coming off arguably the best start of his big league career as he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Royals last week. In three starts this season, Smeltzer has allowed just two earned runs in 17 1/3 innings of work. Rony Garcia gets his second start of the season for the Tigers out of necessity only as Detroit has six pitchers on the I.L. Garcia is in tough here as he faces the Twins for a second consecutive outing. While Detroit did prevail in his start against Minnesota last week, it had little to do with Garcia as he lasted only four innings, allowing three hits, two walks and two earned runs. Note that Garcia has allowed a home run in each of his last three appearances, including that outing against the Twins last week. Rather than mess with the Twins struggling bullpen here, we'll back them in the first five innings only on Tuesday afternoon. Take Minnesota first five innings (9*). |
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05-28-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -106 | 6-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Angels coughed up a late lead in a 4-3 loss last night, their second defeat in a row at the hands of the Blue Jays and third straight overall. I look for them to finally snap out of it and get back in the win column on Saturday as they face a familiar foe on the mound in Yusei Kikuchi. The Halos are of course quite familiar with Kikuchi from his days with the division-rival Mariners. No team has give Kikuchi more trouble than Los Angeles. He owns a ridiculous 10.62 ERA and 2.26 WHIP against the Angels and we're not talking about numbers skewed by a small sample size. No, Kikuchi has faced L.A. seven times in his career, working 29 2/3 innings. While Kikuchi's overall numbers this season are fine, he has had a tough time finding any sort of rhythm, seemingly alternating good and bad outings. One thing we do know is that he hasn't pitched as well on the road with Toronto losing all four of his starts as he's posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings pitched. Enough about Kikuchi, let's talk about Angels starter Michael Lorenzen. I've seen enough from Lorenzen this season to consider him underrated. He's worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, recording a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In four home starts, those numbers drop to 2.38 and 0.93. Here, we'll note that Lorenzen has posted a terrific 14-5 team record in 19 career starts with his team coming off a loss while the Angels are a solid 29-21 after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-28-22 | Giants -170 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Giants dropped the opener of this series last night as they couldn't get anything off Reds rookie starter Graham Ashcraft. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as they go up against Reds starter Vlad Gutierrez who may not be long for the Cincinnati rotation given his results in the early stages of this season. Gutierrez has yet to last five innings in any of his seven starts this season. The one start the Reds managed to win they needed 14 runs to outlast the Brewers in a slugfest. Here at home, Gutierrez has made three starts this season, posting a 9.94 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 12 2/3 innings of work. While that is a small sample size, going back farther shows Gutierrez allowed 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings across his final three home starts last season. Alex Wood will take the ball for the Giants. You can be sure he's been itching to get back on the mound to make amends for his most recent outing, an ugly start in which he gave up five earned runs in three innings of work against the Padres. That start came at home. Wood has actually been better on the road this season, posting a 3-1 team record in four starts, recording a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Here, we'll note that the Reds are a long-term loser when coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less, as is the case here, posting a 241-334 record while being outscored by 0.6 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Giants are 409-331 after losing five or six of their last seven games, which is also the situation here. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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05-28-22 | Brewers -112 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals evened this series at a game apiece with a 4-2 victory last night. I look for the Brewers to answer back on Saturday. Adrian Houser didn't earn a win in his most recent start but he certainly did everything that was asked of him, allowing only one earned run over six frames in an eventual extra innings loss in San Diego. Since then, the Brewers have won three of their last four games. Houser certainly enjoys pitching against the Cardinals. He has allowed just two earned urns in 30 2/3 innings of work against them going back to the start of last season. The Brewers have won three of his five career starts here in St. Louis. Matthew Liberatore will get his second big league start for the Cardinals out of necessity only. He drew a favorable matchup against the light-hitting Pirates in his first career start last week but didn't fare well, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over just 4 2/3 innings. He wasn't exactly thriving at the AAA level prior to the call-up, posting a 3.83 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Pirates v. Padres -200 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Pirates just took two of three games from the Rockies prior to yesterday's off-day. That series came at home, however, where Pittsburgh has recorded 11 of its 18 victories this season. The Buccos are just 7-11 on the road, averaging a miserable 2.9 runs per game. Worse still, in their first road game following a homestand this season they've lost 6-1 in Milwaukee, 3-2 in Detroit and 9-0 in Chicago (against the Cubs) - an awful 0-3 while being outscored by a 18-3 margin. The Padres aren't likely to take it easy on them here, not after dropping consecutive low-scoring games against the Brewers earlier this week. Prior to that they had won five games in a row. Here, we'll note that San Diego is an exceptional 12-3 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game this season, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that situation. Better still, the Pads' are 18-5 after being held to three runs or less in three straight games over the last two seasons, averaging 5.0 runs per game while outscoring the opposition by 1.4 runs on average in that situation. Pirates starter Jose Quintana is coming off his worst start of the season and his lone previous start here at Petco Park was not a good one as he was tagged for six runs, four of them earned, on seven hits over just three innings back in 2019. Padres starter Sean Manaea has shown the ability to work deep into games, lasting at least six innings in seven of his eight starts this season. He's shown a strong day-night dichotomy in his starts this season, faring much better under the lights with a 3.13 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. Add in the Padres bullpen edge (they've posted a 3.15 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season) and I believe they might just be undervalued, even at a fairly steep price on paper on Friday night. Take San Diego (7*). |
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05-25-22 | Rockies v. Pirates -126 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh first five innings over Colorado at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates coughed up a late 1-0 lead in an eventual 2-1 loss to the Rockies last night as their bullpen continued to struggle, particularly here at home where they've posted a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with five saves converted and four blown. Rather than mess with that 'pen here, we'll back the Buccos in the first five innings only as today's starter Zach Thompson brings excellent form to the table. Thompson has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. It's a much different story for Rockies starter Ryan Feltner. He has made just one start this season and it wasn't a good one as he allowed four earned runs over five innings against the Phillies. Feltner has now made three big league starts going back to last season, yielding 12 earned runs in only 11 1/3 innings. He's yet to last more than five innings in a start. Take Pittsburgh first five innings (10*). |
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05-24-22 | Royals +185 v. Diamondbacks | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs shook off the jet-lag following an eight-game road trip to deliver a 9-6 win over the Royals last night. I look for Kansas City to answer back on Tuesday. Yes, the Snakes have their best starter on the hill in Zac Gallen on Tuesday. He'll be making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest, however, and it might be tough to be completely focused here against a lowly interleague opponent in the Royals. Note that Arizona continues to give up a lot of runs. It has allowed 5+ runs in eight of its last nine games. The D'Backs are still just 11-11 at home this season, averaging only 3.5 runs per game while being outscored by 0.3 runs on average. The Royals check in off five straight losses and certainly want to salvage something from this two-game stop in Arizona before an off day followed by a four-game set in Minnesota. Rookie starter Jon Heasley has run into a couple of tough lineups in his first two starts this season, the Rangers and White Sox. In two career road starts he has given up just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. Finally, we'll note that even after last night's win, the D'Backs are still just 2-11 in their last 13 interleague home games. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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05-24-22 | Dodgers v. Nationals +191 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers blew the doors off the Nationals last night which likely provides their backers on Tuesday with a false sense of security as they check in as a big favorite again here. The Nationals are catching Walker Buehler at the right time though, as he's been tagged for seven earned runs on 15 hits over his last two starts, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's failed to last beyond the fifth inning in three of his last four trips to the hill. The Dodgers are just 2-3 in Buehler's five career starts against Washington. He's pitched just once here in Washington, allowing seven runs, four of them earned, in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-4 loss back in 2019. The Nationals will counter with Josiah Gray. His numbers aren't great - in fact, at first glance they're pretty awful. However, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six consecutive starts and the Nats have come away victorious in five of his eight outings this season. Here, we'll note that the Dodgers are just 1-2 after scoring 10+ runs in their previous game this season while the Nationals are 3-1 this season when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 10+ runs. Both situations are of course in play here after the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-1 score in last night's series-opener. Take Washington (9*). |
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05-23-22 | Brewers +100 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I think the case can be made for the Brewers being the better team in this matchup, with the better starting pitcher on the mound, yet we're getting an underdog price as the Padres roll in off four consecutive victories capped off by a three-game sweep against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. We actually cashed a free play on the underdog Nationals in their win over the Brewers yesterday as Milwaukee looked like it had one foot already on the plane having easily won the first two games in that series against Washington. Here, we'll note that the Brewers are 12-9 on the road this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. By contrast, the Padres are 10-7 at home, but have managed to score only 3.4 runs per contest. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has inexplicably struggled in two starts against the lowly Reds this season but has excelled against everyone else. He was a hard-luck loser against the Braves last time out, allowing just one unearned run over six innings in a 3-0 Brewers loss. Houser faced the Padres twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 9 2/3 innings including a 4-2 Brewers victory here in San Diego. Nick Martinez gets another turn in the rotation for the Padres, out of necessity only. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.22 and 1.50 in four home outings. The Brewers will be getting their first look at him here but so were the Cubs in his most recent start and they reached him for five earned runs in just four innings. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Blue Jays +108 v. Cardinals | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Reds yesterday. It was still a positive homestand for Toronto as it won consecutive series' against Seattle and Cincinnati. You can be sure the Jays are acutely aware just how bad their most recent road trip went and they'll be looking to make amends for that as they head to St. Louis and Anaheim this week. We'll back Toronto with Jose Berrios starting on Monday. He comes off his best outing of the young season, tossing seven shutout innings against Seattle last week. Berrios' overall numbers aren't great this season but we certainly know what he's capable of and look for him to turn things around sooner rather than later. The Cardinals just finished beating up on the Pirates over a three-game series but aren't likely to find the same level of success in this much tougher matchup. Miles Mikolas has posted terrific numbers this season but has still only managed to post one team victory in three home starts. While he hasn't allowed many runs, he's also not fooling a lot of hitters, topping out at five strikeouts over his last three outings. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are 37-16 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that situation. Take Toronto (8*). |
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -126 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Padres are already 'fat and happy' having won six of eight games on their current road trip. They've already defeated Giants starter Alex Wood right here in San Francisco once this season but I don't expect them to turn the trick for a second time here. Note that Wood is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a pair of previous afternoon outings this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter MacKenzie Gore was used out of the bullpen earlier this week in Philadelphia, missing his turn in the starting rotation. Given how well Gore has pitched as a starter this season it was a bit of a head-scratching move, although I suppose San Diego is looking to limit his workload somewhat. I think there's a good chance we see Gore a little off having not started in nearly two weeks and the Giants are fully capable of taking advantage, noting that they're putting up 5.5 runs per game, going 5-3 against left-handed starting pitching this season. San Diego has won the first two games in this series but only owns a slight 3-2 edge here in San Francisco this season and an 11-10 advantage in games played in this park over the last three seasons. Look for the Giants to answer back here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -120 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. It's a true 'getaway day' for the D'Backs on Sunday as they'll hop on a plane immediately following today's game to head back home and open a two-game set with the Royals tomorrow night. They'll be playing their eighth game in seven days and haven't had a day off since May 12th so credit them for taking the first three games in this series, including yesterday's in come-from-behind fashion in extra innings. With all of that being said, I'm confident we'll see the Cubs, who had been playing well entering this series, salvaging the series-finale on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Wade Miley will get his third start of the season for Chicago after starting the campaign on the injured list. Remember, he went 12-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 28 starts with the Reds last season and showed signs of returning to form last time out, allowing just one hit while striking out six and not walking a single batter over seven shutout innings in a 9-0 victory over the Pirates right here in Chicago. D'Backs starter Merrill Kelly had the polar opposite experience in his most recent outing, torched for eight earned runs in just two innings of work against the Dodgers. Arizona has now lost his last two starts by a ridiculous 23-6 margin. While Kelly was on the mound for a pair of D'Backs victories over the Cubs last season, it's not as if he pitched particularly well, allowing six earned runs in 14 innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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05-21-22 | Mariners +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series but I look for them to answer back on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. Chris Flexen has received a ridiculous seven runs of support across his seven starts this season. Flexen has done his part, especially on the road where he has posted a 3.80 ERA, allowing three earned runs or less in all four of his outings. I expect the Mariners bats to finally step up for him on Saturday as they face Red Sox rookie Garrett Whitlock. He got off to a solid start this season, holding his first two opponents to just five hits and no earned runs over seven innings of work. Since then he's struggled, however, yielding seven earned runs including three home runs in 13 innings, covering a span of three starts. He'll be making just his second career start on four days' rest. The only previous time we saw him pitch on short rest he gave up a run on four hits and two walks and lasted just three innings in his lone loss of the season in Toronto. Note that the Red Sox bullpen hasn't fared particularly well in day games this season, recording a 5.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with just one save converted and three blown. In stark contrast, the Mariners 'pen has posted a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in afternoon affairs. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-19-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. While Arizona actually owns the better overall record this season, the Cubs just took two of three in the desert last week and are certainly playing the better baseball of the two teams right now, even though they're coming off a loss to the Pirates last night. Chicago will hand the ball to Marcus Stroman as he returns from a quad injury on Thursday. He had been pitching well prior to getting injured, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 13 innings. Missing the D'Backs series last week probably benefits him here as he faces the Snakes for the first time this season (he allowed three earned runs over six innings in a start in Arizona last year). It's a different story for D'Backs starter Zac Gallen. He faced the Cubs last week and pitched well, but still came up empty in a 4-2 loss. Chicago will be getting its third look at Gallen since the start of last season. His lone start here at Wrigley Field wasn't a good one as he was lit up for seven earned runs over just four innings last July. Interestingly enough, the Cubs were getting their second look at Gallen in less than a week on that occasion as well. As far as the bullpens go in this one it's really no contest as the Cubs relief corps has posted a 1.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over its last seven games while the D'Backs 'pen checks in sporting a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago (5*). |
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians -125 | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I think the extra day off (last night's game was postponed) benefits the Guardians here as they look to right the ship off consecutive losses. The Reds could have enjoyed an off day today before heading opening a series in Toronto tomorrow night. Instead they're playing on 'getaway day' and in a tough spot at that with Tyler Mahle - who is winless with a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland - taking the ball against Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has posted a perfect 8-0 team record over the last three seasons and 10-1 in his career when priced as a home favorite between -125 and -175, as is the case here at the time of writing. After working at least six innings in four consecutive starts, the extra off day probably wasn't the worst thing for the right-hander. Speaking of being priced between -125 and -175, the Guardians are an incredible 48-18 in that situation over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.7 runs on average. Finally, I'll note that the day off should serve the Cleveland bullpen well, noting that it had worked a collective 24 innings over its last seven games. By contrast, the Reds 'pen had worked just 19 2/3 innings over the same stretch, recording a poor 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take Cleveland (7*). |
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05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the White Sox in the second half of yesterday's day-night double-header but I look for Chicago to answer back, at least early on, in Wednesday's contest. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we're not all that interested in involving a White Sox bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching 1.80 over the last seven games. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago on Wednesday. Covid quarantine gave him a couple of extra days off since his last outing, perhaps a good thing after he worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. He was sharp last time out, allowing just one earned run over seven innings in a 4-1 victory over the Guardians. Zack Greinke will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his second consecutive start on four days' rest and struggled in his most recent outing, allowing five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in Colorado. He's been tagged for 18 hits and seven earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of just 10 1/3 innings. This will be Chicago's second look at Greinke in less than a month after reaching him for three earned runs over six innings in a 7-3 victory on April 27th. Look for the Sox to improve on those numbers early in this game. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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05-18-22 | Cardinals v. Mets -186 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over St. Louis at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Max Scherzer failed to find the win column against Seattle last time out. It was no fault of his as he allowed just one earned run in seven innings, lowering his ERA to 2.66 in the process. Unfortunately the Mets bats were silent on that night, falling by a 2-1 score. Jordan Hicks, meanwhile, is just hanging on in the Cardinals starting rotation, out of necessity only. He’s yet to last more than five innings in any of his five starts this season. He has allowed multiple runs and walks in four consecutive outings. Yesterday’s double-header between these two teams went according to plan with the favored side winning both games. More of the same here. Take New York (6*). |
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05-17-22 | Twins v. A's +124 | 2-5 | Win | 124 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Minnesota at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins got the better of the A's for the fourth consecutive time this season last night. All four games have been close, and I look for Oakland to finally answer back on Tuesday night. While the Twins check in winners of two games in a row, they've now scored three runs or less in six of their last seven contests. They'll likely need all the runs they can get tonight as starter Dylan Bundy checks in having allowed 15 earned runs over just 9 2/3 innings of work in his last two outings. He's had a tough time against the A's lately as well, allowing 14 earned runs in just nine innings against them across three starts last season. Here, we'll play against the Twins noting that road teams that start a pitcher that averages less than five innings per start and allowed five or more runs in each of his last two starts have gone a miserable 13-52 over the last five seasons. A's starter James Kaprielian has strung together consecutive quality outings, allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. He deserved a better fate in a 1-0 loss against the Twins earlier this season, allowing just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in Minnesota. We'll confidently back the A's noting that home teams coming off a game in which they recorded four or less hits but have a bullpen with a collective ERA of 2.50 or lower over their last 10 games have gone 94-42 over the last five season including a 7-2 mark already this year. Take Oakland (8*). |
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05-17-22 | Giants v. Rockies +147 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockies have now dropped back-to-back and seven of their last eight games overall. That includes four losses against the Giants after dropping last night's series-opener by a 7-6 score. They're still 12-8 at home this season and I like the way they match up in a quick rematch between Alex Cobb and Chad Kuhl on Tuesday. Cobb got the better of the Rockies last week but that was in San Francisco. He's made just one road start this season, allowing three earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Mets. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl had been pitching well prior to getting lit up by the Giants last week. He's made two home starts here at Coors Field, posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies have now lost Kuhl's last two starts. It's worth noting that Kuhl hasn't failed to guide his team to a victory in more than two straight starts since May 31st to June 12th last year. Since that three-start winless stretch he's made 13 more starts. The Rockies have now dropped 11 straight meetings with the Giants. Enough is enough. Look for them to get back in the win column here. Take Colorado (8*). |
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05-17-22 | Angels -121 v. Rangers | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers got the better of the Angeles in the opener of this series last night but I look for Los Angeles to answer back on Tuesday. Reid Detmers makes his return to the mound after tossing a no-hitter for the Angels in his last start. While he struggled in his first outing against the Rangers this season, allowing five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, he's looked like a different pitcher since, allowing only six earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 23 2/3 innings with the Angels winning three of those four games. While most will be expecting Detmers to suffer a letdown of sorts here, I believe that is more likely to happen to Rangers starter Taylor Hearn, who tossed five shutout innings last time out but will now pitch on just four days' rest. He has already made five home appearances this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. This will be Los Angeles' fourth time facing Hearn since last September, having scored 10 runs off of him in 16 previous innings. As far as the bullpens go, the Angels relief corps has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. The Rangers 'pen has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -135 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped each of the first three games in this series but I do look for them to bounce back and salvage the finale on Sunday. Note that Los Angeles has averaged 6.1 runs per game and outscored the opposition by 2.0 runs on average when coming off four or five losses in their last six games over the last two seasons (29-game sample size), as is the case here. After giving up 8+ runs in their previous game they've averaged 6.2 runs per contest and outscored opponents by 1.1 runs on average over the same stretch (13-game sample size). On the flip side, the Phillies have allowed a whopping 6.8 runs per game and been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off an 8+ run performance over the last two seasons (18-game sample size). Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola has posted a 7-14 team record when starting with his team coming off a victory, which is the situation here. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers desperately need Julio Urias to give them a lift as he starts after Walker Buehler had his outing moved up and struggled in last night's eventual 12-10 loss - the Dodgers third defeat in a row and fourth out of their last five. More than anything else, I'm eager to fade Phillies starter Ranger Suarez here. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season. In his two previous outings on short rest this season he allowed 13 hits, five earned runs and two home runs while striking out seven and walking four in 11 innings. It's not as if Los Angeles isn't hitting right now - quite the opposite, in fact. The Dodgers have racked up 31 runs over their last four games. While the Phillies are hot right now, winners of three games in a row, they're still just 7-8 on the road this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-12-22 | Yankees v. White Sox -140 | 15-7 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over New York at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are riding another winning streak (three wins in a row so far) but I don't get the feeling this one will last nearly as long as their most recent (11 straight wins). First of all, the Yanks aren't hitting as well as they were during their last streak. They've scored a grand total of 12 runs over their last three games and just 17 runs over their last six contests. Here, we'll note that the Bronx Bombers are just 17-27 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 runs in that situation. The White Sox check in 25-9 as a home favorite priced at -150 or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that situation. Better still, they're 45-17 when playing at home after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, averaging 5.1 runs per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.7 runs on average in that spot. With a red hot Dylan Cease on the mound (one earned run on five hits while striking out 19 in 12 innings last two starts) and facing Luis Gil making his first start of the season for a Yankees, this might be Chicago's best chance to take a game over the course of this four-game series. Take Chicago (4*). |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -115 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Tough spot for the Phillies here as they travel across the continent after splitting a double-header against the division rival Mets yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mariners stay at home following a confidence-building walk-off win over the red hot Rays yesterday - a game that saw highly-touted pitching prospect George Kirby make an exceptional mound debut. Of course it's all for not if the M's can't keep it going on Monday as they had dropped six games in a row and 10 of their last 11 prior to yesterday's victory. Needless to say, I like their chances here. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's not fooling anyone right now, having topped out at four strikeouts in his first five starts this season, issuing 10 walks in only 23 1/3 innings while also getting tagged for three home runs over his last two outings. With Suarez unlikely to work deep into the game given his poor recent command, we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has posted a 5.47 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over its last seven games. Mariners starter Chris Flexen has pitched well this season, recording a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but has just one victory in his first four starts. That win came in his most recent home start as he allowed only one earned run over seven innings against the Royals in a 4-1 victory on April 22nd. The Mariners bullpen has posted an ugly 6.00 ERA over its last seven games but its collective 1.13 WHIP over that stretch tells a different story. Look for Seattle's turn-around to continue here. Take Seattle (6*). |
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05-08-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 11:35 am et on Sunday. Enough is enough. The Red Sox suffered another excruciating defeat last night, falling by a 3-1 score in extra innings. I look for them to bounce back on Sunday. Michael Wacha has actually been Boston's best starter in the early going this season, sporting a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 innings of work. The Sox, despite their struggles, have actually won each of Wacha's last four outings with their lone loss with him on the hill coming on the road in his season debut in Detroit. Veteran Dallas Keuchel has been wildly inconsistent for the White Sox so far this season. A start at Fenway Park doesn't figure to help his cause as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 24 career innings pitched in Beantown. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled mightily but I do believe their relief corps is far better than they've shown so far and it's only a matter of time before the numbers start to even out. Take Boston (4*). |
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05-06-22 | Rays v. Mariners -124 | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners on the run-line last night and were certainly fortunate to do so in a tight 4-3 loss. Here, I look for Seattle to do one better and actually snap its four-game skid at the expense of the streaking Rays. It's been quite a fall from grace for the Mariners as they've now lost eight of their last nine games overall. It all started against these same Rays in St. Petersburg. I do look for them to regain their footing with arguably their best pitcher on the mound in Logan Gilbert. He may not be getting the national attention he deserves but he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. Gilbert checks in sporting a sparkling 0.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Mariners have won all five of his starts. That includes an 8-4 win over these same Rays as Gilbert came an out shy of lasting six shutout innings. Matt Wisler will counter for Tampa Bay. He's served the 'opener' role twice this season and has admittedly pitched well. I simply feel the Mariners bats are poised for a breakout performance here after being held to five hits or less in four consecutive games. Keep in mind, prior to that stretch they had recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their previous eight games. This is a game Seattle quite simply needs to get in order to stop the bleeding. Take Seattle (6*). |
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05-06-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Boston is struggling right now. Sending two back of the rotation starters to the hill against the Angels over the last two days didn't help matters. Here on Friday, I look for Nathan Eovaldi to help the Sox snap out of their funk. Vince Velasquez will take the ball for Chicago. He tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the aforementioned Angels last time out. Don't count on a repeat performance here as he was rocked for five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his only previous road start this season and got lit up for eight earned runs without lasting even three innings in a start here at Fenway Park as a member of the Phillies last season. Eovaldi meanwhile has been getting stronger with each start and comes off a seven inning shutout performance against the Orioles. He's come up empty win-wise over his last two outings but it certainly hasn't been his fault as he gave up just two earned runs in 14 innings in those two starts. Eovaldi faced the White Sox once last season, striking out 10 while working into the seventh inning in an 11-4 cakewalk. While I don't love what I've seen from the Red Sox bullpen so far this season, I do think it's only a matter of time before that group rights the ship. Let's call for the turnaround to begin tonight. Take Boston (5*). |
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05-05-22 | Mets v. Phillies -158 | 8-7 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 6:45 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies will likely be happy to see the Rangers leave town after they dropped consecutive games in frustrating fashion against Texas. On Tuesday, Philadelphia blew a 3-2 lead and lost 6-4 despite outhitting the Rangers - unable to cash in on its many opportunities at the plate. Last night, the Phils couldn't score a single run in nine innings, wasting Zack Wheeler's fine performance in an eventual 2-1 extra innings loss. I do feel that the Phillies offense is on the verge of breaking out, noting that they rattled off 17 hits but left 13 on base in the two-game series against Texas. Here, they'll be looking to get back at the Mets after dropping two of three in Queens last weekend. I like their chances with Aaron Nola taking the ball on Thursday. He hasn't posted a win since his season debut but it hasn't been for lack of effort. Nola has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts. He struck out nine without walking a batter, allowing three earned runs in six innings against these same Mets last time out. Taijuan Walker will counter for the Mets. He's only made two appearances so far this season as he deals with a nagging injury. While he has pitched reasonably well, I'm not convinced we'll see him work deep into this game. That means we should see plenty of a sagging Mets bullpen that has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has recorded four saves but also three blown saves on the road this season. By contrast, the Phillies bullpen owns a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home. Take Philadelphia (3*). |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -135 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Rockies last night and we'll come right back with them again on Thursday as they wrap up this three-game series before heading back out on the road. As is often the case, the Rockies have been much better at home so far this season, going 10-5 while averaging 5.5 runs per game here at Coors Field. The same goes for today's starter Antonio Senzatela. He has posted a stellar 1.84 ERA in three home starts this season, with Colorado winning all three of those contests. His 1.77 WHIP certainly leaves a lot to be desired but I do like the way he's limited the damage and some of that has just been bad luck as he's actually issued only three walks in 14 2/3 innings of work here at home. Aaron Sanchez gets another turn in the Nationals rotation after a solid performance in San Francisco last weekend. His early returns are certainly nothing to write home about this season though as he's recorded a 6.75 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in two starts, covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. The Rockies actually saw him twice last season and had some success with Sanchez allowing six earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. The Washington bullpen remains a disaster on the road where it has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted to go along with one blown. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home, picking up its eighth home save last night, compared to only two blown at Coors Field. Take Colorado (3*). |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies got shelled in the opener of this series last night, failing to match a season-high four-game winning streak in the process. The Nationals bats have come alive on their current road trip but I look for them to cool off on Wednesday. First, let's talk about Nats' starter Pat Corbin. How many more turns will he get in the rotation? The Nats' have now dropped each of his last six starts and 17 of his last 22 outings going back to last season. It hasn't just been a case of bad luck either. Corbin has been awful. He checks in sporting a 8.69 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work this season. His counterpart tonight, Austin Gomber, got off to a shaky start but has since turned it around, allowing only two earned runs in 12 innings pitched over his last two starts, striking out 14 and walking just one along the way. While the Rockies bullpen hasn't been great lately, it still owns a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with seven saves converted and two blown here at home this season. Contrast that with the Nats' 'pen, which has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road. Take Colorado (6*). |
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05-04-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Phillies coughed up a 3-2 lead in an eventual 6-4 loss to the Rangers to open this brief two-game set last night. Philadelphia had numerous opportunities to cash in late in that contest but simply couldn't find a clutch hit. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Rangers have now matched a season-high with three straight wins. I look for them to fall short with left-hander Martin Perez on the hill here, however. Note that the Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs per game while winning four of six games against southpaw starters this season. Zack Wheeler will be tasked with helping the Phils end their two-game slide. As usual, he's been terrific at home, posting a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work. Behind Wheeler is a Philadelphia bullpen that has recorded a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has posted similar numbers on the road, but have just two converted saves to go along with two blown. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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05-04-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | 8-7 | Loss | -143 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 12:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Marlins last night as their late rally fell short in a second consecutive 5-4 loss at the hands of the D'Backs. That makes it three straight losses for Miami but I look for it to bounce back on 'getaway day'. D'Backs starter Madison Bumgarner has been terrific in the early going this season. For as well as he has pitched, the Snakes have still only managed to win two of his five starts, however. A big reason for that is a shaky bullpen that once again struggled to hold a big lead last night (Arizona led the game 5-0). I also feel some regression could be in order when it comes to Bumgarner, noting that he'll be starting on just four days' rest for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Elieser Hernandez will counter for Miami. He has labored through his last two outings but does enter this start undefeated in his last three trips to the hill. His lone previous daytime start was arguably his best of the season as he allowed just one earned run over six frames in an 11-3 win over the Phillies. Behind Hernandez is a Marlins bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, tossing 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball again last night to even give the Fish a chance at rallying. Take Miami (5*). |
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05-03-22 | Rays v. A's +116 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped four games in a row following last night's lifeless performance in the opener of this series. I do look for them to respond on Tuesday, however, as they send Paul Blackburn - who has arguably been their best starter so far this season - to the hill against the Rays. The A's are still just three games under .500 this season so it's not as if the sky is falling. If they're to turn it around, Blackburn would appear to be the right guy to have on the mound as he has posted a 4-0 team record with a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts this season. That includes a start that saw him toss five innings of shutout ball in a 13-2 rout of the Rays in St. Petersburg. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that continues to pitch well, having recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown here at home this season. The Rays are still undecided as to who will start this game but I'm confident back the A's as an 'action' bet in this prime bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Take Oakland (4*). |
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05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals impressively turned things around by taking two of three games in San Francisco over the weekend. They probably would have liked to get right back out there on Monday but instead they had a travel day before opening this series in Colorado on Tuesday. The Rockies are feeling some good vibes as well after a three-game sweep of the lowly Reds. I simply feel Colorado's recent success is more sustainable as we head into this series. The Rockies are 9-4 at home this season, averaging 5.8 runs per game at Coors Field. Interestingly, the Nationals are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road yet that's only translated to a 5-5 'away' record. That has a lot to do with a struggling Washington pitching staff, noting that its bullpen has posted a 6.69 ERA and 1.75 WHIP with only one save converted and one blown away from home this season. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here at home, converting seven saves while blowing only two. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a 'wash' based on early returns this season but I look for the Colorado offense and bullpen to prove to be the difference here. Take Colorado (5*). |
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05-03-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -155 | 6-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers took consecutive games from another N.L. East opponent in the Braves over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Phillies dropped two of three games against the rival Mets in New York. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back here at home with one of their most consistent starters going back to last season taking the ball in Ranger Suarez. While Suarez hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for, the Phillies have still managed to win all four of his outings. The Rangers entered the seasons with sky-high offensive expectations but it hasn't really worked out all that great so far as they've won just 8 of 22 games and check in having scored three runs or less in seven of their last nine contests. It's true the Phillies were no-hit by the Mets this past Friday but they've still scored 6+ runs in five of their last seven games, averaging 6.0 runs per contest over that stretch. The Rangers are still undecided on their starter for Tuesday's game but there aren't many great options on this pitching staff. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs took the opener of this series last night to improve to an even 6-6 on the road this season. The Marlins didn't get a strong start from Pablo Lopez and ultimately dug too big of a hole to rally, falling just short in a 5-4 contest. After winning seven straight games, Miami has now dropped consecutive games. I look for it to bounce back here. Humberto Castellanos is expected to get the start for the D'Backs. He has turned in one good start and one bad one on the road this season but the D'Backs have lost both of those games by lopsided margins of 5-0 and 8-3. With Castellanos unlikely to work deep into this game (he's yet to last six innings in any of his 10 previous big league starts) we'll likely see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 40 innings of work on the road this season. Left-hander Trevor Rogers projects to get the start for the Marlins in this one. He got off to a rough start through two outings this season but has since turned it around, allowing only one earned run on six hits over 11 innings in his last two outings. He should feel confident facing the D'Backs after tossing six impressive innings against them in a 5-1 win in Arizona last season. Miami's relief corps entered last night's game with a 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season with three saves converted and none blown. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -129 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros are coming off a tight series in Toronto that saw them drop two of three games. I expect them to get back in the win column as they host the division rival Mariners on Monday. Houston will be looking for payback after dropping two of three games in Seattle earlier this season, including an 11-1 setback in a game that featured the identical pitching matchup to what we'll see tonight. Marco Gonzales will take the hill for Seattle. He was forced to exit his last start after just 1/3 of an inning due to an injury. That wasn't before giving up a hit, a walk and an earned run. Note that Gonzales also struggled in his previous road outing this season, lasting only two innings in a 10-4 loss in Minnesota (he gave up six runs, two of them earned). While he did pitch exceptionally well in his previous outing against the Mariners, that was at home. In Gonzales's five career starts in Houston, the Mariners have been outscored by a combined margin of 36-12. Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He got hit hard in that start opposing Gonzales earlier this season. However, in two home starts against the Mariners since the start of last season, Odorizzi has posted a 2-0 team record, allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. We'll also note that the Astros bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings of work. Take Houston (6*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins are locked-in at the plate right now, having delivered 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games and even in the two outliers over that stretch they still managed to go 1-1 (they're 9-1 over their last 10 games overall). The Orioles delivered consecutive wins over a struggling Red Sox squad over the weekend but I think the win streak ends here. While I give the Twins only a slight edge in terms of starting pitching, I do think they have a more decisive advantage as far as the bullpens go with Minnesota's relief corps having posted a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games while Baltimore's 'pen has recorded a 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Despite their nine-run explosion yesterday, the O's are still averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season while Minnesota has put up 4.0 runs per contest on the road. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-01-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -240 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up similarly to the Giants yesterday and I expect a similar outcome as well. The Tigers snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers last night. Look for Walker Buehler, fresh off a complete game shutout, to pick up the Boys in Blue on Sunday afternoon. Even with last night's victory, the Tigers are still averaging a woeful 2.2 runs per game on the road this season and don't figure to improve on that mark against the Dodgers best arm on Sunday. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Eduardo Rodriguez has posted a 5.03 ERA and 1.27 WHIP despite having the benefit of making three of his four starts at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this season. The Dodgers check in averaging 5.0 runs per game at home this season and they improve on that here. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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05-01-22 | Twins v. Rays -145 | 9-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Big spot for the Rays here as they look to wrap up their homestand on a winning note before heading out west for a 10-game road trip (they won't play another home game until May 13th). Yesterday's 9-1 loss is the type of defeat that isn't all that difficult to bounce back from. Just ask the Twins, who dropped the opener of this series in lopsided fashion 6-1 before delivering yesterday's blowout. The Rays did successfully bounce back from their previous 'worst loss' of the season - a 13-2 setback on April 11th - scoring nine runs in a victory the next day. Josh Fleming gets the call for the Rays on Sunday. His lone previous start this season wasn't particularly good as he allowed three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against the A's. He did strike out six and walk only one in that contest. I expect a better showing from him here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Rays bullpen has been terrific, posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 102 1/3 innings this season. Josh Winder will make his first career start for the Twins. He isn't likely to work deep into the game and behind him is a Minnesota bullpen that has recorded a 4.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road this season. Despite yesterday's nine-run outburst, the Twins are still averaging only 3.4 runs per game and hitting .222 as a team on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (5*). |
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04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -150 | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. I actually liked the way last night's matchup set up for the underdog D'Backs but ultimately left them off the card. Here, I don't believe Arizona is set up favorably as it sends Merrill Kelly to the hill against Miles Mikolas. Kelly has pitched well through his first four starts this season. However, it is worth noting that his three most difficult opponents have all come at home (Padres, Astros and Dodgers). His lone road outing came against a struggling Nationals lineup (which admittedly did break out in San Francisco last night but had been slumping). The D'Backs rate out as having one of baseball's weaker bullpens, entering last night's game sporting a 5.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home this season. Miles Mikolas shook off a rough season debut to allow just one earned run over his last three starts, spanning 18 2/3 innings of work. The Cards bullpen entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season with four converted saves and only one blown. Take St. Louis (6*). |
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04-28-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Yesterday's come-from-behind win over the Mets was the type of victory the Cardinals can build off of and they're facing an ideal opponent to do just that in the D'Backs on Thursday. Arizona just took two of three games from the Dodgers but is in for a letdown here. Note that the Snakes are just 3-4 on the road this season, averaging 3.1 runs per game. In stark contrast, the Cards have averaged 5.3 runs per game at home. I like the advantages we have with the Cards in terms of starting and relief pitching here. Humberto Castellanos hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the D'Backs this season and behind him is a bullpen that has posted a 5.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 innings pitched away from home. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings last time out and the St. Louis' bullpen has recorded a 2.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take St. Louis (5*). |
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04-27-22 | Mariners v. Rays -134 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays dropped the opener of this series last night, falling behind big early and never really recovering. I look for them to answer back tonight. The Mariners have won a season-high four games in a row. In fact, they've lost just once in their last eight games. Interestingly, their lone loss over that stretch came with tonight's starter Marco Gonzalez on the hill. Gonzalez has made just one road start this season and it didn't go well. He was ripped for six hits and six runs, two of them earned, in just two innings in a 10-4 loss to the Twins. Note that while the M's have been winning, their bullpen remains a work-in-progress. They've converted three saves but have also blown three this season. Over its last seven games, the Mariners relief corps has posted a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. On the flip side, the Rays bullpen has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over its last seven contests, converting a pair of saves without a blown save along the way. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for Tampa on Wednesday. He's made just one home start this season and pitched reasonably well, allowing two earned runs on three hits over four innings. Here we'll note that the Rays are an incredible 31-12 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals suffered an excruciating loss in the opener of this series last night with Nolan Arenado's ill-timed ninth inning throwing error (with two outs) ultimately leading to a 5-2 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they halt their brief two-game losing streak. The Mets have won two games in a row and are off to a 3-1 start to their current road trip. Keep in mind, they're just 20-31 when coming off consecutive wins going back to last season, outscored by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Chris Bassitt gets the start for New York. He was terrific in his first two starts this season but those came against the struggling Nationals and D'Backs. In his most recent outing he was tagged for five earned runs over six innings against the Giants. Note that the Mets bullpen has struggled on the road this season, recording a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jordan Hicks gets another turn in the rotation for the Cardinals. He gave up one earned runs in a short three-inning outing against the Marlins last week. He's unlikely to work deep into this game either but that's fine as the Cards 'pen has posted a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over their last seven games. While St. Louis produced only two runs last night that wasn't unexpected as it was up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Note that the Cards are still averaging an impressive 5.4 runs per contest at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -182 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Colorado at 6:45 pm et on Monday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive victories in Detroit, which came on the heels of a 13-0 drubbing in the opener of that series. We've surprisingly seen the Rockies win four of their first five road games so far this season - notable when you consider they're 10-32 in road games in the first half of the season going back to last year. I expect them to hit a speedbump in Philadelphia on Monday. The Phillies just wrapped up a disappointing series loss at home against the Brewers. Remember, last week they also dropped two of three games against these same Rockies in Colorado. Still, I believe the steep price is warranted here. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for Philadelphia. Including a victory over the A's earlier this season, Gibson has posted a 12-2 team record in 14 home starts going back to the start of last year. He faced the Rockies last week and despite the Phils falling short by a 6-5 score, Gibson didn't pitch all that poorly, allowing only three earned runs in six innings - not bad for a start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, Gibson will get the opportunity to face the Rockies at home for the first time in his career. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He opposed Gibson last week and allowed only two earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 victory. While he's had success facing the Phils at home over the course of his career (3-0 team record in three starts), he's gone winless in a pair of previous outings here in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 defeat last season in which he allowed four earned runs over six frames. Even if Freeland pitches well here, there's no guarantee that the Rockies bullpen can hold up its end of the bargain. The Colorado 'pen has posted an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies have already blown three saves this season. On the flip side, the Phillies 'pen has posted a less than impressive 5.40 ERA but a more respectable 1.29 WHIP over its last seven games. Note that the Phils relief corps has combined to record a 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three converted saves and none blown at home this season. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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04-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros -126 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably lost four consecutive games since opening their current homestand with a decisive 8-3 win over the Angels on Monday. I look for them to salvage the finale of this three-game series against the Blue Jays on Sunday. What better pitcher to bounce back against than Yusei Kikuchi. The Astros are familiar with the left-hander from his days with Seattle. Kikuchi has posted a career 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP with a 4-7 team record in 11 outings against Houston. Meanwhile, Astros starter Luis Garcia last faced the Blue Jays last June in Toronto, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-3 Astros victory. While the series hasn't gone well for the home side so far, the Astros are actually catching the Blue Jays at the right time as Toronto has yet to really heat up at the plate. The Jays check in having scored four runs or less in seven of their last nine games. Take Houston (7*). |
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04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. It's been a rough week for the Braves as they've dropped three of five games against the Dodgers and Marlins. They can salvage a series victory here, however, heading into an off day on Monday. I look for them to do just that. Note that Atlanta checks in 29-11 when coming off four or five losses over their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs on average in that situation. The Marlins on the other hand are a long-term 21-53 when playing on the road after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game, which is also the situation here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs in that spot. Note that Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo faced the Braves once last season, allowing four earned runs on four hits and five walks in just three innings in an 11-9 loss last August. Bryce Elder will counter for Atlanta and he should be confident given he worked into the sixth inning and allowed just three earned runs in a 16-4 victory over Washington in his lone previous home start this season. While the Braves bullpen hasn't been as good as we've come to expect out of the gates this season, it has managed to convert six of seven save opportunities. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in a game that could have easily gone either way. Both of these teams are off to disappointing 7-7 starts. In a game where the pitching is virtually a 'wash', I'll go with what I believe to be the better offense in a bounce-back spot on Saturday. Garrett Whitlock has been effective out of the bullpen for the Red Sox during the early stages of his career but will be making his first big league start here. Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to J.P. Feyereisen in an 'opener' role, much like he served in Chicago last week as the Rays defeated the White Sox 9-3. Despite scoring just three runs last night, Tampa Bay does check in averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last week. The Red Sox have had a slightly tougher time generating runs, averaging 3.4 runs per contest over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the Rays are an impressive 30-11 in their last 41 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 5-3 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels are starting to put together a nice early season run, having won seven of their last nine games. They have the benefit of coming off an off day yesterday while the Orioles were wrapping up another losing series in Oakland. Baltimore has won just four of 13 games so far this season which is about what we expected. I look for it to fall short again on Friday. Bruce Zimmermann has been a bright spot in the Baltimore rotation. He's yet to allow a run through two starts - both victories. His run of good fortune likely comes to an end here, however, and even if it doesn't, I'm not convinced the Orioles bullpen is well-positioned to hold up its end of the bargain. The O's 'pen has already logged more than 60 innings this season and they haven't had an off day since April 14th. Note that Zimmermann has yet to last beyond the fifth inning. He hasn't made it through the sixth in any of his 13 outings going back to the start of last season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He's labored through his first two starts this season but I expect a better performance here as he faces an O's lineup that checks in averaging just 1.6 runs per game and hitting .211 on the road this season. I mentioned the Angels had the day off on Thursday, giving their bullpen a much needed break. After struggling at the start of the season, Los Angeles' relief corps has posted a collective 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work over its last seven games. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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04-21-22 | Twins -113 v. Royals | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Royals have gotten the better of the Twins so far in this series but I look for Minnesota to answer back - at least early on in Thursday's series finale. Twins starter Joe Ryan has to feel pretty good about himself after limiting the Red Sox to just one earned run over six innings in their home opener last Friday. Now he looks to help Minnesota avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. It's not as if the Royals bats have been alive in the early stages of this season, averaging just 2.9 runs per game and hitting .216 as a team here at home. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke isn't fooling anyone at this stage of his career. He's managed just a single strikeout while allowing 10 hits in 11 innings through his first two outings. The Twins saw him once last season, scoring three runs over six innings. I look for them to improve on that performance here as they bounce back after facing a pair of left-handed starters to open the series. We'll back the Twins in the first five innings only here as we look to avoid a Minnesota bullpen that has struggled. Take Minnesota first five innings (5*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox -122 | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The betting markets seem to be giving a lot of respect for the Twins in the early going this season - a little too much in my opinion. Minnesota has dropped four of its first six games overall and now heads to Boston to face a suddenly hot Red Sox offense that just put up 14 runs in bouncing back from a series-opening loss in Detroit to deliver consecutive wins over the Tigers. The Red Sox bats are well-positioned to stay hot in friendly hitting conditions on a breezy Friday afternoon at Fenway Park. There's little to choose between the two starting pitchers today. Both struggled in their season debuts and I'm not convinced either bounces back with a big performance here. With that being said, the Sox have had the clear edge in terms of their bullpen in the early going this season. Boston's relief corps has posted a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 25 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Twins 'pen has recorded a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings, blowing a save along the way. Take Boston (4*). |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series. In fact, they've lost four games in a row since opening the season with consecutive victories. I like the way they're set up to get back in the win column on Thursday, however, as they wrap up their three-game series in Chicago. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the M's. He pitched well in his season debut, allowing just one earned run over five innings, essentially picking up right where he left off at the end of last season. Gilbert had a brief outing here in Chicago last season, tossing two scoreless innings in a game the Mariners won 3-2. Behind Gilbert is a Seattle bullpen that has posted a collective 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. Jimmy Lambert will get his first start of the season for the White Sox. He made three starts down the stretch last year, pitching reasonably well (at first glance at least), allowing five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. A closer look shows that he recorded a 43.9% hard-hit ball percentage and a 35.7% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than MLB averages. After getting very limited work in Spring Training, I expect him to struggle against the Mariners lineup today. Here, we'll note that the Mariners are 11-5 after losing four of their last five games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a long-term 46-60 when playing at home off consecutive wins by two runs or less, as is the case here, allowing 5.1 runs per game and outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-11-22 | Brewers -150 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losing opening series' against division opponents. In the case of the Brewers that was a surprise as they were favored in all three games against the Cubs in Chicago. On a positive note they did manage to salvage the series finale on Sunday and now I look for them to build some positive momentum, noting that they're an impressive 33-13 when playing on the road off a win going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. The Orioles were not surprisingly swept in a three-game series against the Rays in St. Petersburg. They check in a woeful 11-30 in their last 41 home games after getting swept in a three-game series against a division opponent, outscored by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, they're 13-42 when coming off three or more consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 runs in that situation. Take Milwaukee (5*). |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. As much as Braves fans are hoping this is the night that they end their World Series drought, I believe they're going to have to wait at least one more game. While the Braves are likely to go with another bullpen game, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez as he looks to make amends for a poor performance earlier in the series. Interestingly, he's been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 away starts. In his lone previous playoff road start he allowed just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. Of course, each of the last two games in this series could have gone either way. No matter how you spin it, using six different pitchers in last night's game wasn't ideal for Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Braves used five different pitchers two nights ago as well. While the Astros have gone with an 'all hands on deck' sort of approach as well, they at least have a proven starter capable of working at least five or six innings on Sunday. Take Houston. |
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09-17-21 | A's -115 v. Angels | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. NOTE: We'll make this an 'action' play with the Angels still undecided as to who they'll be starting on the mound in this game. The A's have been as streaky as it gets down the stretch and enter this series off much-needed back-to-back wins over the Royals in Kansas City. For as untrustworthy as they've been, I do like their chances of getting this series with the division-rival Angels off to a positive start on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is coming off surprising back-to-back wins over the White Sox in Chicago. Yesterday, it exploded for nine runs in a six-run rout of the Sox. That's key as the Angels now fall in a spot where they're 11-17 when coming off a win by four runs or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 runs in that situation. They also check in a miserable 3-11 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. Oakland will hand the ball to left-hander Cole Irvin. He deserved better than a no-decision in an eventual 8-6 loss in his most recent start as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings against the Rangers, exiting with a 6-2 lead. Irvin has seemingly figured out the Angels over his last two starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings of work. The Angels are still undecided as to who they'll start in this one. Having not won three games in a row since late August, I see this as a spot where L.A. is essentially 'punting' back home off without an off day following an eight-game road trip. Take Oakland (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Padres v. Giants -230 | 7-4 | Loss | -230 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Padres got the better of the Giants last night, snapping San Francisco's nine-game winning streak in the process. Here, I look for the Giants to get right back on track behind underrated starter Kevin Gausman. San Francisco checks in 11-2 with Gausman on the hill in day games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.3 runs. Better still, the Giants are 10-1 with Gausman starting against division opponents this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.3 runs on average. Also note that they're 11-2 when coming off a game where they gave up eight runs or more this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. While it could be argued that the Giants were 'punting' last night's game with Dominic Leone on the hill. Here, the Padres are handing the ball to Pierce Johnson who has made just one previous start, which lasted just one inning against the Dodgers in an eventual 5-2 loss back in August. San Diego is still in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card hunt but it doesn't seem as if anyone wants to stake claim to one of those spots, the Padres included having dropped five of their last six contests. Take San Francisco (5*). |
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09-16-21 | Angels v. White Sox -189 | 9-3 | Loss | -189 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have had a tough time stringing together consecutive wins lately, doing so just once in the last two weeks. They have remained strong coming off a loss, however, and I expect them to rebound from last night's 3-2 setback on Thursday afternoon. Note that Chicago has lost back-to-back games just once since August 24th. The White Sox check in an incredible 16-2 when playing at home after scoring two runs or less this season, as is the case here, having outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.0 runs. They're also 12-1 when playing at home following a loss by two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. With neither of today's starters likely to work deep into this game, the bullpens should play a major factor in the outcome and there, the White Sox have a considerable advantage. The Angels bullpen has had to log 32 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over that stretch. Meanwhile, the White Sox bullpen has recorded a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same period. Take Chicago (5*). |
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09-15-21 | Rockies v. Braves -187 | 3-2 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are suddenly struggling a bit having dropped two of their last three games against the lowly Marlins and Rockies. I expect them to come up with an answer on Wednesday, however, as they try to even up this series with Colorado at home. Note that the Braves have outscored opponents by 1.6 runs on average when revenging a one-run loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 23 times previously. Better still, they've outscored opponents by 1.8 runs on average when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season - that spot has come up 20 times previously. Finally, Atlanta checks in 46-26 after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.5 runs. On the flip side, the Rockies are a miserable 2-14 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games this season, outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela hasn't been the same pitcher on the road this season compared to at home, posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the Rockies having dropped nine of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, Braves starter Huascar Ynoa has made seven home starts, recording an impressive 2.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. While the Rockies bullpen continues to struggling, having posted a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over their last seven games, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 1.25 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Atlanta (6*). |
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09-15-21 | Reds -135 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The pressure is on the Reds right now as they've now dropped three games in a row to fall a half-game back of the second N.L. Wild Card spot. I look for them to finally get back on track on Wednesday night in Pittsburgh. Last night, Cincinnati fell behind 3-0 in the first inning and was never really able to recover. It did make a valiant comeback effort after spotting the Buccos a 6-0 lead, however, ultimately falling by a 6-5 score. The Pirates bullpen was once again awful against a division opponent, noting that group entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown against N.L. Central foes. Meanwhile, the Reds bullpen did all it could to keep them in the game, tossing 3 2/3 hitless, shutout innings. Despite last night's victory, the Pirates are still a miserable 18-47 against division opponents this season, outscored by right around 2.0 runs on average. Chalk this up as a random trend if you'd like but Pittsburgh checks in a ridiculous 2-20 in Wednesday games this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.1 runs. The Reds have gone 28-16 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs. Better still, they're 23-10 after losing six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Tonight's starter for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller. He's been awful against the Reds, facing them three times since the start of last season, allowing 14 earned runs on 16 hits while striking out and walking 10 in just 11 1/3 innings of work. The Reds won all three of those games by a combined 34-8 margin. Meanwhile, the Reds are 7-4 in Vlad Gutierrez's 11 road starts this season where he has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds limp into this series after a disappointing series loss against one of the teams they're trying to fend off in the N.L. Wild Card race, the St. Louis Cardinals. Here, I feel they're well-positioned to bounce back against a Pirates club that they've owned this season, taking nine of 10 previous meetings. Note that the Reds are an incredible 11-1 in games where Wade Miley has stated and they've been priced as a favorite -110 or higher this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 runs in that spot. They're also a solid 8-2 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that situation. That's not to mention their 13-4 record when playing on the road following an off day over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Pirates are a miserable 16-44 when playing with double-revenge this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. They've also been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off two wins in their last three games, with that situation coming up 41 times previously this season. Reds starter Wade Miley is far more likely to work deep into this game than Dillon Peters for the Buccos. Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has recorded just five saves while blowing eight against division opponents while Cincinnati has converted 21 saves while blowing 10 against N.L. Central foes. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | 8-6 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's in a similar price range last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the Rangers find themselves in another difficult spot against a suddenly streaking Oakland club. Note that Texas is 0-12 when playing on the road off six or more consecutive road games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.6 runs in that spot. The Rangers are also a miserable 11-37 when playing on the road off a loss this season, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that situation. As for the A's, they check in 32-17 when playing at home for at least the fourth straight game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 runs in that spot. Better still, they're 28-12 when playing at home off a win this season, outscoring foes by 1.4 runs on average. Today's A's starter, Cole Irvin, has struggled lately but four of his last five outings have come on the road. Here at home he owns a 1.26 WHIP in 13 starts, with the A's having won five of his last six outings here at the Coliseum including a 12-3 win over the Rangers on August 7th. Take Oakland (7*). |
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09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's -173 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's, who are looking to make up for lost time after a really tough stretch. They enter this series off consecutive wins over the A's and I look for them to keep it going against the suddenly streaking Rangers on Friday. Texas has inexplicably won four games in a row after dropping its previous three contests. This is a tough spot for the Rangers, however, noting that they're a ridiculous 0-11 when playing on the road after six or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. They're also just 11-43 when playing on the road against A.L. West opponents over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in those contests. Meanwhile, the A's have been a terrific 'positive momentum' play having gone 76-37 when playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 runs. The lack of a true advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup helps keep Oakland in a playable range here. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -134 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. The Indians inexplicably lost a third straight game against the lowly Twins last night but I look for them to finally answer back on Thursday. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for Cleveland on Thursday and he's arguably been their most consistent starter in recent weeks (and months). Here, the Indians check in having gone 14-2 after scoring one run or less this season, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Despite last night's loss, they're still an impressive 40-15 when priced as a favorite of between -125 an -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that spot. Minnesota is a miserable 1-9 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five contests over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. Interestingly, the Twins are also 4-14 when playing on the road after being held to three runs or less in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's are reeling right now, playing their worst baseball of the season at the absolute worst time. I do look for them to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Frankie Montas, who has been their most reliable starter over the last month-plus. Oakland checks in 5-2 in Montas' last seven outings. Over that stretch he's allowed just 10 earned runs in 44 2/3 innings of work. Even with last night's win, the White Sox are still just 11-27 as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Dallas Keuchel remains in the Chicago rotation out of necessity only as he's been awful for the better part of the last month. He's topped out at three strikeouts over his last five starts, recording just a single 'K' in three of those outings. Over his last three starts he checks in with a ridiculous 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP. The fact that the White Sox have lost six of his last eight trips to the hill is telling. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians on Wednesday night as they try to avoid a third consecutive defeat at the hands of the lowly Twins. Note that Minnesota hasn't recorded three straight road wins against the same team since sweeping the Rangers from June 18th-20th. Tonight the Twins will be up against a red hot Triston McKenzie, who has dropped his ERA from 6.11 on July 31st to 4.62 entering this outing. McKenzie has given up just seven earned runs in 34 innings of work over his last five starts. Even with last night's loss, the Indians are still 37-19 when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. That includes a stellar 26-10 mark at home. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive wins over the Angels in Anaheim while the D'Backs just got swept in a three-game set at home against the Mariners. With that being said, I look for Arizona to bounce back and send Texas back to its losing ways on the road on Tuesday night. Note that the Rangers are a miserable 3-19 when playing on the road off three consecutive games against division opponents this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. They generally get worse as a road trip goes on, even if that hasn't been the case so far on this trip, as they check in 5-27 after playing four or more consecutive road games, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the D'Backs enjoyed a day off on Monday and that's key as they've gone 29-16 when coming off an off day over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average. With Zac Gallen having figured out his issues for the Snakes over his last three starts (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 IP), look for Arizona to get back in the win column. Take Arizona (8*). |
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09-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -225 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the chalk and back the Braves in Tuesday's series-opener against the Nationals. Washington is coming off a rare victory yesterday but still checks in just 17-42 over its last 59 games, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs over that stretch. Also note that the Nats are a miserable 3-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive home losses against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. The Braves are a solid 22-10, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case tonight. They're 39-13 when tonight's starter Max Fried starts as a favorite priced at -110 or higher over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs on average. Take Atlanta (6*). |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis for this play. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians. Note that Cleveland checks in 26-9 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs. Better still, the Indians are 26-8 when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. They'll have Aaron CiVale back on the mound for the first time since June, noting that they've gone 12-3 in his 15 previous outings this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins are 9-16 when coming off two more consecutive wins this season while also going 29-40 after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (10*). |