Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5 | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Wednesday. Surprisingly enough, the Nuggets actually rank second-last in the playoffs in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Blazers sit middle of the pack in that department. We saw both teams shoot exceptionally well in the series opener but I'm confident both will make the necessary adjustments - the Blazers in particular, to keep things in check on Wednesday night. There's no question this has been a high-scoring series all season but now we're dealing with a number that matches the highest total we've seen in this matchup to date. I expect this to be a long, tightly-contested series, and with that in mind, I look for the defenses to settle in and play much better on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday afternoon but now I think we're seeing a major overreaction from the books as the total has dropped considerably in advance of Game 2 on Tuesday. The Celtics put up 112 points on Sunday despite getting to the free throw line only eight times, grabbing only three offensive rebounds and knocking down just 13 three-pointers. While they did shoot better than 54% from the field, I actually think there's still some room for improvement. As for the Bucks, they're the one-seed in the East for a reason. Their 35-9 home record is no fluke. They'll make the necessary adjustments and Giannis won't get locked down the way he did in the series opener. Keep in mind, this is a team that scored 119+ in all four games during their opening round sweep of the Pistons. They hung 120 points on the C's in a previous meeting this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' as the Blazers and Nuggets open their series on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both of these teams opened last round with far lower-scoring games than expected but I look for a different story to unfold here. Keep in mind, the last meeting between these teams reached 223 points and saw a closing total of 219.5 back on April 7th. The Nuggets ended up finishing second-last in the league in pace rating in the opening round of the playoffs, but I fully expect to see that pace pick up against the Blazers. Note that Denver ranks third in the league in offensive rating during the postseason. While the Nuggets overall defensive numbers were fine against the Spurs, they rank just 11th in terms of defensive rating in the playoffs, two spots behind the Blazers first round opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 223.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. While this certainly has the potential to turn into a track meet given all the offensive talent on the floor, I don't see it playing out that way in Sunday's series-opener. Both teams certainly held decisive edges in their first round series' and took full advantage of that winning in the minimum number of games, it is still worth pointing out that the Celtics and Bucks check in first and third respectively in the playoffs in defensive rating. While the Bucks are tops in terms of offensive rating, the Celtics actually sit just 12th (entering last night's action). I do feel that Boston's experience can pay off in this series and remember, the C's did an excellent job defensively against the Bucks in last year's thrilling seven-game series win, barely allowing them to get into the 100's on most nights. Needless to say, this series isn't going to be the cakewalk the Bucks experienced in the opening round. In the series-clincher, they got to the free throw line 41 times and shot better than 54% from the field. Different story here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike the Jazz-Rockets series which hasn't really come all that close to approaching the total in most games, this series has been different. The two games played in San Antonio actually reached 226 and 220 points, well north of the number we're dealing with tonight. Game 5 totaled only 198 points, but that was with the two teams making good on just 25 free throw attempts and the Spurs shooting 7-of-24 from beyond the arc, a number they should be able to improve on back at home with their season on the line. We've seen the total drop a couple of points from the closing number in Game 5 but I don't believe the move is warranted. In previous years I would look to play the 'under' with inflated totals later in series' but that is no longer the case. Take the over (10*). |