Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-21-24 | Arsenal v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-23 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be shying away at the prospect of backing the 'over' at a lofty 3.5 goals in the second leg of this Champions League matchup between PSG and Bayern Munich on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg produced just one goal - that coming from Bayern Munich in stunning fashion. I'm anticipating more offensive fireworks this time around, however, noting that the German side will be without both Benjamin Pavard (suspension) and Lucas Hernandez (injury) on its back-line, not to mention Manuel Neuer between the sticks. It's worth noting that Neuer's replacement, Yann Sommer, has rated out poorly in each of his last three matches in Bundesliga action. Speaking of rating poorly, PSG keeper Gianluigi Donnaruma posted two exceptionally poor ratings in recent matches against Lille and Nantes in Ligue 1 action. We know both of these sides are clinical in their attack and I like the fact that PSG will need to be on its front foot down a goal by aggregate here. There's no reason to think we see the French side sit back in hostile territory on Wednesday and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. While laying the juice to play the 'over' at 3.0 is tempting here, I believe we're well-suited to take it on at 3.5 with a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-23 | Juventus v. Napoli UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Napoli and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a cagey, low-scoring affair between the top two sides in the Serie A table on Friday in Naples. You would have to go back eight matches between these two Italian rivals to find the last time a game totalled more than three goals with four of the last seven meetings staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. While Juventus finds itself as the decided underdog ahead of this clash, it has conceded a grand total of only four goals in seven 'away' matches in Serie A play this season. It's a similar story for Napoli from a defensive standpoint as it has allowed only six goals in eight home matches. Both squads enter in fine form, particularly at the back line. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams with stronger defensive units, certainly in Italy. Napoli's four-man back line rates out about as high as it gets based on my own metrics. Juventus' back line rates only slightly lower but we can anticipate the visitors also playing a little more conservatively here, helping their cause in trying to contain Napoli's opportunistic attack up front. Since returning to league play post-World Cup, Napoli has given up one goal in two matches while Juventus has yet to concede through a pair of contests. Of note, you would have to go back six matches across all competitions to find the last time a game involving Juventus went 'over' 2.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Morocco v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Morocco and Croatia at 10 am et on Saturday. Neither of these teams managed to find the back of the net in the semi-finals earlier this week but it wasn't for lack of trying. Morocco in particular was certainly deserving of at least one, maybe two goals against France, but ultimately fell by a 2-0 score. Here, I'm confident we'll see the upstart Moroccans 'go for it' in an effort to give their supporters a little something tangible to take away from this thrilling tournament. It's a similar story for Croatia, albeit it was a little more uninspiring in its 3-0 defeat at the hands of Leo Messi and Argentina in the semis. Like Morocco, we know what Croatia is capable of and I do expect it to also push for goal with virtually nothing to lose in this contest. Keep in mind, these two countries met in the Group Stage of this tournament, playing to a 0-0 draw. That was a predictably cagey affair with a lot on the line in the early stages of the tournament. This is a much different situation with both sides looking to put on a show and ultimately wrap up a consolation prize on Saturday in Qatar. I expect to see something of a 'slingshot effect' with both sides coming off so many tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs (the 'under' 2.5 goals has come through in five of Croatia's last seven games and five of Morocco's last six contests). Take the over (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Croatia v. Argentina OVER 2 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Croatia and Argentina at 2 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm recommending laying the -150 or so to get the first half total at 0.5 goals in this contest. Not an overly difficult choice to pay the tariff to go 'over' the 0.5-goal first half total in Tuesday's much-anticipated showdown between Croatia and Argentina. The latter enters this contest playing some truly inspired football ever since that stunning tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia. Argentina has made its money putting the opposition on its back foot early more often than not, scoring first in nine consecutive matches across all competitions. It has led 1-0 or better at the half in seven of its last nine contests overall. Croatia won't go away quietly though, we know that after it rallied for an incredible victory over tournament favorite Brazil in the quarter-final round last Friday. The Croatians have managed to find the back of the net in three consecutive matches against Argentina, including a 3-0 victory in Group Stage play at the 2018 World Cup. If there's a weakness on Argentina its at the back line where Molina, Romero and Tagliafico in particular have been less than impressive. Keeper Emiliano doesn't rate out particularly well either, despite his penalty heroics against the Netherlands last Friday. Take the first half over (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Japan and Croatia at 10 am et on Monday. With little separating these two squads and both proving able to keep their opponents' on their back foot in this tournament, I'm expecting goals to come at a premium in their knockout stage fixture on Monday. Japan has gone its last four matches without recording a clean sheet but it didn't give up more than a single goal on any occasion over that stretch. The fact that it held Germany and Spain each to a goal in the group stage of the tournament was certainly encouraging. Croatia reached the final at World Cup 2018 and a similar path isn't out of the question here following an undefeated run through the group stage. However, it's not always pretty (it was held off the scoresheet in two of three group stage matches) and I believe it will have a difficult time breaking through against Japan as well. Even if it does, it has the capability and interest in parking the bus from there. I believe a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreline through 90 minutes is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Uruguay v. Ghana OVER 2.25 | 2-0 | Loss | -57.5 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ghana and Uruguay at 10 am et on Friday. Ghana's two games so far in this tournament have been thrillers with each contest totalling five goals. I'll admit that I expected Ghana to be far more organized and stout defensively in this tournament but that simply hasn't been the case. Here, with Uruguay needing to push to secure advancement in this tournament (currently sitting in last place, two points behind second-place Ghana, I'm confident we'll see another relatively high-scoring affair. With Ghana having scored first in six of its last eight contests across all competitions, there's reason to believe the Uruguayans will be forced to go on the offensive early. Both sides have been vulnerable defensively in the World Cup so far, even if Uruguay has only yielded two goals through two contests. The two back lines rate out near the bottom of any defensive units in this tournament according to the numbers I use. The same goes for the keepers. Expect some fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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12-01-22 | Germany v. Costa Rica OVER 3.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Costa Rica and Germany at 2 pm et on Thursday. I think we’re only going to realistically need one goal from Costa Rica to get ‘over’ this total of 3.5 on Thursday and considering Germany has conceded at least a goal in nine of its last 10 contests, I believe there’s a good chance of that happening here. Of course the Germans need to push at every opportunity as they sit in last-place in the group with plenty of work to do to advance. We know Costa Rica is vulnerable defensively as we saw it drop a 7-0 decision against Spain to open its tournament. We actually won with Costa Rica in its stunner against Japan but I feel there’s high-potential for it to concede three or more goals here, with its back-line continuing its tournament struggle. Take the over (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Mexico v. Saudi Arabia OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 2 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be the highest-scoring match on Wednesday's World Cup slate. Both lineups rate highly up front but poorly at the back-end (in this tournament to date). Al-Shehri ranks among the most dangerous strikers in World Cup play according to my ratings. The same goes for Hirving Lozano up front for Mexico. Both back-lines can be had. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa - one of the oldest players in the entire tournament - fared well in a 0-0 draw with Poland in the opener but struggled mightily against a tougher opponent in Argentina last time out. Saudi Arabia is capable of putting Ochoa under duress for extended stretches in this one and I'm confident it can deliver on at least one occasion. Meanwhile, the Mexicans need more than just a strong showing to advance - they need a fistful of goals and there is a path to that outcome with no one in the final-third of the field for Saudi Arabia capable of truly leaving their mark on this contest. Again, both sides are well-positioned to 'go for it' in this group stage finale and I'm confident we'll see at least three goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Senegal v. Ecuador UNDER 2.25 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Senegal and Ecuador at 10 am et on Tuesday. |
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11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-22 | South Korea v. Uruguay UNDER 2.25 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Korea and Uruguay at 8 am et on Thursday. This is another play where you'll want to look for an alternate total and pay the juice to get it at 2.5 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.0 being offered at some books. In a group where all four teams are capable of rising up and advancing, I'm expecting a very cagey affair between South Korea and Uruguay on Thursday. I'm just not sure where the goals are going to come from in this matchup. Even if one team is able to gain the upper hand early, there's no guarantee the other side will be able to find the equalizer. While Uruguay is fielding an aging roster led by 35-year old Luis Suarez up front, Korea was struck a blow with Son suffering an eye injury in the lead-up to this tournament - an injury that is expected to require surgery. Uruguay is always a tough side to break down defensively, noting that it enters this tourney having yielded just one goal across its last seven matches in all competitions. Korea has been a little more forgiving in that regard but again, I'm unsure whether Uruguay has the squad to take advantage. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-22 | Cameroon v. Switzerland OVER 2 | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cameroon and Switzerland at 5 am et on Thursday. Do your line shopping for this play as I recommend paying the tariff to go 'over' a 2.0 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.5 being offered at some books. My reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. We've seen a string of low-scoring affairs in this tournament, including a number of dreaded 0-0 results. I do think we're going to see totals continue to shade lower - too low in this particular matchup in my opinion. Note that both squads get stronger as you move up the field. By that I mean both have their issues defensively with a number of defenders, not to mention both goalkeepers, entering this tournament in relatively poor form. Up front, it's a much different story. I'm confident we'll see Switzerland get off to a fast start here on the heels of a very strong showing at the Euros in Summer 2021. I also think Cameroon ultimately finds the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Japan v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Japan and Germany at 8 am et on Wednesday. Off an unappealing 0-0 draw against Oman in a World Cup warmup match earlier this month, a lot of bettors might be hesitant to back the 'over' in Germany's tournament opener against a cagey Japan squad on Wednesday. I'm not the least bit concerned about the Germans finding the back of the net in this particular contest. Regardless what we've seen from Japan in matches leading up to this tournament (it has yielded just two goals in its last six matches across all competitions), I have it rated as the weakest defensive squad of the 'big three' in Group E. The good news is, Japan can score and should be an absolute handful for Germany on Wednesday. With Maeda playing for Celtic, Minamino for Monaco and Kamada for Eintracht Frankfurt, all three engines up front are certainly accustomed to being involved in high-scoring environments. It's Japan's back-end that I'm concerned about, especially against a clinical and dare-I-say underrated German squad. Keeper Shuichi Gonda has struggled at the best of times in his home country and most recently allowed a pair of goals in a friendly against Canada. While Germany has no such issues at the back-end with veteran Manuel Neuer between the sticks, I do think it could be vulnerable in the middle of its defense with Sule and Rudiger not exactly in peak form. Watch for Jamal Musiala as he looks to make a real name for himself on the international stage in this tournament. He enters in terrific form off a string of fine performances for Bayern Munich in Bundesliga play. Take the over (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Tunisia v. Denmark UNDER 2.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tunisia and Denmark at 8 am et on Tuesday. Tunisia will do everything in its power to fight to a 0-0 draw in its World Cup opener against Denmark. The Danes might just oblige them as they’re lacking the punch to break through offensively right out of the gates in this tourney, relatively-speaking of course. Note that Tunisia has held seven of its last eight opponents scoreless, with the exception being Brazil. On the flip side, you would have to go back seven contests to find the last time Denmark tallied more than two goals, which might just be asked of it to get this one 'over' the total. Even if one of these teams is able to find the back of the net, as the Danes are likely to do, the equalizer might just be a bridge too far. I’m surprised there are still 2.5’s to be found at the time of posting and we’ll pay the tariff to get that number here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Sevilla v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sevilla and Manchester City at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Sevilla was embarrassed by Manchester City when these two squads met back in September, dropping a 4-0 decision, on it's home soil no less. Here, in the return match at Etihad Stadium, I look for the Spanish side to take a much more controlled approach and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Note that four of Manchester City's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, Sevilla has seen five of its last seven contests go 'under' that same total. With the English side having taken each of the last three meetings between these two squads, and Sevilla scoring only two goals across those three battles, the latter has a slim margin for error here. With that in mind, I do think we see Sevilla lean on its capable defense and also note that keeper Marko Dmitrovic is coming off consecutive tremendous showings against FC Kobenhavn in Champions League action and Rayo Vallecano in La Liga play. I'm not anticipating any sort of breakout performance from the Spanish side offensively as it has been limited to one goal or less in 10 of its last 11 matches across all competitions. Take the under (8*). |
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10-06-22 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. HJK Helsinki OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets Razgrad at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. With these two teams occupying the bottom two spots in the Group C table, we can anticipate both 'going for it' on Thursday in Helsinki. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that Ludogorets Razgrad enters having gone winless in its last three matches, failing to record a clean sheet in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, its defensive deficiencies have led to the 'over' 2.5 goals going 7-2 in its last nine matches across all competitions. It's been a similar story for HJK Helsinki. It has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Neither side appears set on its back line - Helsinki's only saving grace has been keeper Conor Hazard but he's been relegated to bench duty on many occasions. Razgrad can be exploited on the right side of its defense and is likely to have little-used Simon Sluga between the sticks. While this isn't the most attractive matchup on paper, I do expect some offensive fireworks on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-22 | AC Milan v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chelsea and AC Milan at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Injuries are the story ahead of this Group E showdown on Wednesday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors with Milan decidedly worse off. With that being said, I'm still confident the visiting Italian side can find a goal in this contest, noting you would have to go back nine matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. Over that stretch, the English side has seen six of eight contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. As for Milan, it checks in with five of its last six matches going 'over' that number, with both sides finding the back of the net in all six of those contests. Milan enters this match particularly vulnerable at the back-end due to injury-related absences and I'm confident we'll see the Blues take full advantage. Take the over (8*). |
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10-04-22 | Napoli v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Ajax and Napoli at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I expect plenty of fireworks in this showdown between Group A's top two teams in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Napoli sits atop the group having recorded two victories in as many tries in this stage. It will be in tough trying to hold off a terrific Ajax side here, however. Note that both teams check in having seen five of their last six matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. More importantly for our purposes, both sides have shown the ability to strike first. Ajax has scored first in eight of its last nine matches while you would have to go back six contests to find the last time Napoli didn't find the back of the net first. In that vein, we've also seen Dutch side Ajax lead at halftime in seven of its last nine matches. However, it has gone winless in its last three contests across all competitions while Napoli brings an incredible 21-match undefeated streak into this one. Both sides are explosive up front. Mohammed Kudus has gone scoreless in his last three matches, including a pair of games for his national team, Ghana. I expect him to make amends with Ajax here. Napoli has the firepower to answer, however, noting that it just tallied three first half markers in its Serie A victory over Torino this past Saturday. Take the first half over (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Montenegro v. Bosnia & Herzegovina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair as the top two teams in League B, Group 3 do battle in Zenica on Friday. Through four matches, these are the only two squads in the group to have posted positive goal differentials. Note that we saw Bosnia and Montenegro match up back in early June, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Note that Bosnia enters this match having gone undefeated across its last five contests and will of course have the benefit of hosting this one. More importantly, it has seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Montenegro as four of its last five contests have totalled two goals or less. Dzeko is certainly a big-time scoring threat up front for Bosnia but I like the setup of the Montenegro defense with Vucacic and Vesovic in excellent form and goalkeeper Milan Mijatovic having recorded a clean sheet in his most recent international match, a 3-0 win in earlier Nations League play against Romania. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-22 | Nantes v. Qarabag FK OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 102 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Qarabag FK and FC Nantes at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. |
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09-14-22 | Sevilla v. FC Copenhagen OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Kobenhavn and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's Champions League clash with deficiencies at the back end and I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks in Copenhagen. Sevilla, despite playing in often goal-starved La Liga, has gone its last six matches without recording a single clean sheet. Of those six contests, five found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Kobenhavn as it has seen eight of its last 10 contests sail 'over' 2.5 total goals. With that being said, both sides were actually shut out in their most recent Champions League matches. Sitting pointless at the bottom of the Group G standings, looking up at the likes of Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund (who also square off on Wednesday) you can understand why both sides would 'go for it' in this contest. A 2-1 result is the most likely outcome in my opinion and that's enough to push this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Arsenal v. Zurich OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Zurich and Arsenal at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. This has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matches on Thursday's Europa League board. Zurich brings a streak of seven consecutive matches finding the back of the net and I'm confident that run will remain intact here. Note that Arsenal has conceded in three consecutive matches. The Gunners have also seen each of their last five matches total 3+ goals. The same goes for Zurich in four of its last five contests. The Swiss side will obviously have its hands full here as Arsenal has shown that quick-strike ability, scoring first in eight of its last 10 matches. I feel that Zurich will be able to answer on its home soil, helping send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Charlotte FC v. Columbus OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Charlotte has managed to find the back of the net in four straight and seven of its last eight matches across all competitions. Here, it finds itself in an underdog role away against Columbus, rightfully so given it has had a miserable time preventing goals away from home, giving up 13 in just seven road contests this season. Columbus hasn't exactly been explosive offensively, managing nine goals in six home matches, however it should have little trouble breaking through here, noting that you would have to go back five matches to find the last time Charlotte posted a clean sheet. With the Crew sitting in the bottom half of the MLS Eastern Conference standings it can make a serious move here as it sits just three points back of Charlotte - which finds itself in seventh place in the conference, three spots north of Columbus. Expect goals on Saturday night. Take the over (8*). |
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06-15-22 | Orlando City SC v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Orlando City SC at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time a match totalled 'under' 2.5 goals. Orlando City enters Wednesday's contest having seen seven of its last nine matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals while New England has had five of its last seven contests go 'over' that total. Not since April 30th, in a match where its opponent Inter Miami CF was handed two red cards, has New England posted a clean sheet - that's eight matches back. Orlando recorded a clean sheet against Toronto FC four matches back but that's been its only shutout posted in its last nine contests. With this match being played in Foxborough, with the Revolution looking to leapfrog Orlando - which currently holds down fifth place in the Eastern Conference - and jump into the playoff picture by grabbing all three points, I expect an aggressive gameplan from the home side here. That does leave it somewhat vulnerable, however, with Orlando having found the back of the net in seven consecutive trips to the pitch. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Israel v. Iceland OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iceland and Israel at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. These two countries just met on the pitch back on June 2nd and the result was a 2-2 draw. Israel has now gone 10 consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet and I expect that streak to remain intact as it travels to face Iceland for a rematch on Monday. It's a similar story for Iceland as it had conceded at least a goal in seven consecutive contests prior to posting a 1-0 victory over minnow San Marino in an international friendly on June 9th. Both sides are vulnerable at the back-end and both have what I would consider second-rate keepers between the sticks. I also feel that both offensive attacks are very underrated - Israel in particular. Note that the 'over' 2.5 has now come through in nine of Israel's last 10 matches while Iceland has conceded first in five of its last six contests, with both sides scoring in six of its last eight. We'll take a flyer with the 'over' at a generous return again here. Take the over (6*). |
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06-12-22 | Portugal v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Portugal at 2:45 pm et on Sunday. No Cristiano Ronaldo, among others, for Portugal on Sunday but I still expect it to find the back of the net without much resistance from a Swiss side that has had a miserable time dealing with numerous key defensive absences and ailments in Nations League play. Switzerland is now winless in its last five matches, failing to post a clean sheet in any of those contests and I would anticipate a similar story unfolding here. I do, however, expect the Swiss to find some offensive success here after getting shut out by Spain last time out. Of course, that was their second straight match failing to score after a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the same Portugal side they'll face on Sunday back on June 5th. They're likely to face a slightly weaker version this time around, however, opening the door for them to perhaps close the gap. With Portugal having struck first in five of its last six matches, Switzerland will undoubtedly come out with an attacking mindset here as it looks to finally break the seal again having not scored since a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic on June 2nd. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Spain at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. The Swiss are in tough right now, missing a number of key cogs at the back-end and things certainly won't get any easier against a Spanish side still hungry for its first victory in Nations League play on Thursday. With Fabian Schar, Nico Elvedi and Manuel Akanji all in line to miss Thursday's match, it's going to be awfully difficult for Switzerland to contend with Spain's offensive attack. While Spain is known for possessing the ball but not always fruitful in attack in recent years, it would be wise to apply all the pressure it can on Switzerland's leaky, undermanned defense. On the flip side, Switzerland was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Portugal last time out. I do think we see it respond with a favorable performance here in Geneva on Thursday. Note that it has managed to find the back of the net in three of its last four matches with Spain, despite receiving red cards in each of the last two meetings. Spain has allowed at least a goal in three of its last four matches going back to March, only managing to keep Iceland off the scoreboard in a friendly. I don't have a lot of confidence in underwhelming Spain keeper Unai Simon posting a clean sheet here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Poland v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and Poland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Belgium's 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in its Nations League opener last week and I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here as it hosts Poland in Brussels on Wednesday. We certainly didn't see Belgium's 'A' game against Holland as it fielded a makeshift squad and lost Romelu Lukaku just 27 minutes into the match due to injury. It isn't expected to have standout goalkeeper Thibault Courtois for this contest and I'm confident in predicting another shaky performance from Club Brugge keeper Simon Mignolet in Courtois' absence. Poland didn't get a goal from Robert Lewandowksi but still managed to come away victorious by a 2-1 score against Wales last time out. I'm confident we'll see the all-world striker find the back of the net in this contest. Note that both teams have scored in six of Belgium's last seven matches across all competitions and not surprisingly, six of those seven contests went 'over' 2.5 total goals as well. After such a dismal showing against the Netherlands we can anticipate a positive response from Belgium here, particularly at home, but I'm not convinced it keeps a clean sheet against a confident Polish side that is undefeated in its last three matches. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-22 | England v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Germany and England at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off rather uninspiring Nations League openers with England falling 1-0 to Hungary in a stunner in Budapest and Germany settling for a 1-1 draw against an Italy squad that is a shell of its former self. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as these two soccer powerhouses put on a show at Allianz Arena in Munich. Germany was fortunate to give up just a single goal against the Italians last time out. Its defense has appeared leaky at times while goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, while boasting an excellent track record, has struggled not only for his home country, but also for Bayern Munich in recent months. On the flip side, England didn't field its best squad against Hungary but we can anticipate changes to its lineup as it looks to avoid falling deeper into potential Nations League relegation on Tuesday. While I do feel England is rock solid at the back-end, it will be a difficult task trying to keep the German offense at bay for 90 minutes on Tuesday. Note that Germany remains undefeated in its last 10 matches across all competitions and has been first to score in five of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). |
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06-06-22 | Albania v. Iceland UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iceland and Albania at 2:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for Iceland here as it returns home from a trip to Israel that ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw. Things won't get any easier here as Iceland hosts Albania, which did not play its opening match which had been previously scheduled against Russia (for obvious reasons). Albania is the very definition of a 'tough out'. The difficulty for Albania here, however, is that it will be missing its two best attackers in Chelsea striker Armando Broja and Rey Manaj due to Covid protocols and injury, respectively. The Albanians are strong at the back-end, however, and will hope to scratch and claw their way to at least a point in this match. That would likely also be a favorable result in the eyes of Iceland. It certainly came away disappointed by the 2-2 draw in Israel if only because it led by a goal in the closing minutes before allowing the equalizer. With a rather punchless Albanian starting XI, Iceland may not find the same difficulty in keeping its opponent under wraps on Monday. Note that Iceland has gone winless across its last seven matches and has conceded first in five of its last six contests so it will certainly be focused on keeping its defensive shape in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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06-04-22 | England v. Hungary UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hungary and England at 12 noon et on Saturday. While many of the early Nations League affairs have featured goals aplenty (and we've taken full advantage), I don't expect anything of that sort as England challenges Hungary on Saturday. The Three Lions have a number of injury doubts heading into this one. It does come in riding a nine-match undefeated streak, however, a run that has a good chance of remaining intact here. England's main focus at this point is on rounding into form ahead of November's World Cup in Qatar. While England has scored a whopping 20 goals across its last three matches, 10 of those came in a rout of San Marino last November. It obviously faces a much different challenge here. Hungary has seen four of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals including a 1-1 draw against England last October. You would have to go back three matches to find the last time the Hungarians scored more than once in a match as it mustered just one goal across two contests against Serbia and Northern Ireland back in March. Noting that Hungary has gone the last four meetings with England without recording a clean sheet, I would anticipate it focusing on keeping its shape defensively in this one and waiting for an opportunity for veteran striker Adam Szalai to counter. I'm just not sure there will be a wealth of those chances here. Take the under (6*). |
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06-03-22 | Netherlands v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Friday. With goalkeeper Thibault Courtois officially ruled out due to a groin issue after leading Real Madrid to a Champions League title last Saturday, Belgium could prove vulnerable at the back-end (key defender Jason Denayer is also expected to miss). The Netherlands obviously boasts no shortage of attacking prowess and I'm confident both sides will be eager to push the pace here (these Nations League matches have a tendency to feature more offense than defense with far less on the line compared to World Cup and Euro tournaments for example). Note that Belgium has seen five of its last six matches go 'over' 2.5 goals while the Netherlands is undefeated across its last nine contests and has been 'first to score' in seven of its last eight (the same goes for Belgium). Take the over (8*). |
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06-03-22 | Denmark v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between France and Denmark at 2:45 pm et on Friday. When these two squads last met in 2018 they played to a 0-0 draw. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday, however, as they tangle in their Nations League opener. Of course, the stakes aren't nearly as high in this tournament as they are in the Euros or World Cup - not even close. So perhaps it's not surprising that yesterday's opening day slate of Nations League contests was fairly high-scoring. I expect more of the same here. France comes in riding a seven-match winning streak across all competitions. You would have to go back 10 matches to find its last defeat. Five of its last six contests have found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. Likewise, Denmark has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 goals. Denmark is certainly no pushover - it sits 11th in the FIFA rankings and enters this contest having scored first in eight of its last 10 trips to the pitch. With key defender Simon Kjaer expected to miss this contest, the Danes may be a little think at the back and France is certainly capable of exposing any sort of weakness in that area of the field with Mbappe and Benzema capable of striking at any given moment. France can be vulnerable at the back-end as well, noting that just going back to last September you'll find the likes of Ivory Coast and Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus. We'll count on some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-22 | Norway v. Serbia OVER 2 | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Serbia and Norway at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. Norway is coming off the tremendous disappointment of missing out on the World Cup, failing to qualify for November's tournament in Qatar. Not only did it not qualify but it stunningly failed to find the back of the net even once in its final two qualification matches. I look for the Norwegians to make amends on Thursday as they open Nations League play against Serbia. Of course, Serbia won't be easy to tame here at home, where it hasn't lost a single match since 2020. The Serbians should benefit from facing a Norwegian back-line that will be missing two key cogs in Omar Elabdellaoui and Kristoffer Ajer. While striker Duhan Vlahovic will not be on the pitch for Serbia it does have depth up front with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Luka Jovic more than capable of filling the void. While this match may feature some dry periods, both sides do possess that quick-strike ability that we're looking for when playing an 'over'. Take the over (8*). |
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06-02-22 | Sweden v. Slovenia UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Slovenia and Sweden at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. On paper, Sweden should have its way with Slovenia. After all, the Swedes check in ranked 19th in the world by FIFA while Slovenia is 65th. However, Sweden has managed to score just one goal in its last four matches across all competitions. That lone goal came in extra time against the Czechs in World Cup qualifying. Each of Sweden's last five matches have totalled two goals or less. With Slovenia being the expected bottom-feeder in this Nations League group we can anticipate it simply looking to take something, anything from this match - perhaps one where the potential is there to at least gain a point. Interestingly, Slovenia is actually undefeated across its last four contests. A tentative start to the Nations League can be expected here and I envision both sides struggling to find more than a single goal. Take the under (6*). |
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05-28-22 | Real Madrid v. Liverpool OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Liverpool and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Saturday. Last year's Champions League Final was a bit of a snoozer unless you're a real student of the game. Chelsea won that match by a 1-0 score over Manchester City. Oddly enough, I'm actually expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here but with that being said, I simply feel this total has been set too low. 'Low-scoring' is a relative term considering how these two squads have performed, particularly in Champions League play. Gone are the days of Real Madrid putting on routine defensive clinics in big matches such as this. Los Blancos have been pushing hard, often out of necessity after digging deep holes for themselves. You'd be hard-pressed to find a striker in better form than Karim Benzema right now. He possesses the ability to tilt the scales in Los Blancos' favor at any given moment. Of course, Liverpool plays an extremely aggressive, attacking brand of football. The Reds will look to pressure Real Madrid's oft-leaky defense early and often on Saturday. Regardless which team strikes first, an equalizer should never be far off. If there's an area to be exploited on Liverpool's side in might just be in goal where keeper Alisson is beatable in my opinion. Benzema and Vinicius Jr. have been clinical and should pose a major threat to the Reds last line of defense here. Take the over (8*). |
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05-20-22 | Levante v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 3 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Levante at 3 pm et on Friday. With their places already assured ahead of Friday's La Liga finale, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Levante would be well-advised to play cautiously here, noting that it has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last seven matches, giving up the first goal in six of those contests. The good news is, Rayo Vallecano isn't all that imposing offensively and enters this match having gone winless across its last four contests. Note also that Vallecano has seen six of its last eight contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals. It has enjoyed a successful campaign here at home this season, where it actually sits 10th in the La Liga table when only considering home matches. There, we've seen it yield just 18 goals in 18 matches - an impressive accomplishment in its own right. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-22 | Fiorentina v. Sampdoria UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sampdoria and Fiorentina at 12:30 pm et on Monday. We cashed an 'under' play in a match involving Fiorentina last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. I like the setup in this one as Fiorentina sits in seventh place in the Serie A table, currently in line to qualify for Conference League play, but tied point-wise with eighth-place Atlanta. This is Fiorentina's match in hand. It will certainly want to come away with at least a point here but Sampdoria has proven to be a 'tough out' at home, with just a -6 goal differential. Fiorentina has been rather punchless away from home, sitting just 12th in the table when factoring in only those 'away' matches, where it owns a -7 goal differential. Note that Sampdoria is just four points clear of relegation in the Serie A table and could certainly use at least a point from this contest. It has seen six of its last seven matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Fiorentina will need to be careful here noting that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches. This has generally been a high-scoring series with both sides finding the back of the net in each of the last 10 meetings. I believe that is only serving to provide us value with the 'under' here with that I consider to be distinctly different circumstances than we've seen in recent clashes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Roma v. Fiorentina UNDER 2.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fiorentina and Roma at 2:45 pm et on Monday. With very little separating these two teams in the Seria A table and both on either side of the coveted top-seven places, I'm anticipating a cagey affair on Monday in Florence. Note that Fiorentina enters this match having lost four consecutive matches so it is in desperate need of taking something, anything away from this clash on Monday. Roma on the other hand will be looking to keep its three-match undefeated streak intact. I do feel that Fiorentina is a much better defensive squad that it has shown over its last four contests, noting that it has allowed a grand total of 20 goals in 17 home matches this season. Having conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches, I fully expect Fiorentina to take a fairly cautious approach for much of this one, especially when you consider it has dropped five straight meetings with Roma. This has been a relatively high-scoring series with six of the last seven meetings going 'over' 2.5 total goals but I think we have a different set of circumstances here, noting as I did earlier that there's much at stake here with Roma sitting in a tie for 6th/7th in the Serie A table and Fiorentina just three points back in eighth. Fiorentina actually ranks fourth in Serie A when only factoring in 'home' matches with an impressive +14 goal differential. Take the under (6*). |
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05-06-22 | Real Sociedad v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a rather cagey affair between these two La Liga sides on Friday in Valencia. Real Sociedad comes in having failed to record a victory in its last three matches. It still sits sixth in the La Liga table, with a four-point cushion over seventh-place Villarreal and a seven-point advantage on Athletic, which sits in eighth. There's no question Sociedad would like to claim all three points in this match but I don't believe it will come easy. Levante sits last in the La Liga table. It will undoubtedly take on a defensive form here noting that it has gone four matches without recording a clean sheet and eight contests without doing so in this particular series. The last two matches between these two squads have gone 1-0 to Sociedad. With Levante giving up the first goal in five of the last six meetings, I would anticipate it throwing everything it has at Sociedad early in this one in an effort to stem the tide. Note that as bad as Levante has been this season, it actually has a goal differential of just -5 at home, where it has conceded just over 1.6 goals per contest. Noting that Sociedad has seen less than 2.5 goals in six of its last seven matches, I believe both sides will be comfortable in a low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Arminia Bielefeld v. VfL Bochum OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vfl Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Bielefeld could desperately use the three points from this 'away' match on Friday as it currently sits six points back of 15th-place Hertha Berlin - a spot that would mean avoiding relegation. It has to feel it at least has a puncher's chance in this one, noting that Bochum is a middling Bundesliga side that has failed to deliver a victory in the last five meetings in this series. While eight of the last 10 matches between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, I believe that's only serving to provide us with some value on the 'over' in this one. Keep in mind, Bochum has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet. Bielefeld has had a miserable time keeping the ball out of its own net, allowing the first goal in nine consecutive matches while going winless over that stretch. Bielefeld has managed to find a goal in three of its last five matches - in the only two contests where it didn't over that stretch, it allowed four. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-22 | Venezia v. Salernitana OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Salernitana and Venezia at 12 noon et on Thursday. In principle, I'm not convinced we should see totals set south of 3.0 goals in matches involving Venezia. It continues to bring up the rear in the Seria A table and has now conceded at least a goal in an incredible 23 consecutive matches. It has also gone winless in its last 10 Serie A tilts, carrying a streak of nine straight outright defeats. You have to think that this could potentially be the spot to break that skid, however, noting that Salernitana sits just four points ahead in the Serie A table, with an even worse goal margin of -42. It does check in undefeated across its last four contests but has also seen both teams find the back of the net in four of its last five overall. It's not as if this hasn't been a competitive series as each of the last three matches have been decided by a single goal with both teams scoring in all three of those contests. When they last met in October 2021, Venezia fell by a 2-1 score, thanks in large part to playing shorthanded following a red card in the 67th minute. With both sides extremely vulnerable at the back-end and with little reason to hold anything back up front, I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-22 | Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Real Madrid and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I believe we're in for a real treat in the second leg of this epic Champions League semi-final showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg met expectations and then some as Man City prevailed by a 4-3 score on home soil. Here, I expect City and its oft-vulnerable back-end to have an extremely difficult time containing a Real Madrid offense that has absolutely rounded into form in recent months. Both of these teams are no strangers to high-scoring affairs. They both enter this match having seen each of their last five contests total at least three goals. I like the fact that Real Madrid needs to erase a one-goal deficit here at home while Man City will also be striving for goals having allowed a whopping three 'away' goals in the first leg. While Man City has won four consecutive meetings between these European powerhouses, you would have to go back six matches to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet against Real Madrid. For its part, Real Madrid hasn't held Man City off the scoresheet in any of the last four meetings between the two and in current form isn't the impenetrable defensive squad it once was. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-22 | SC Freiburg v. Hoffenheim OVER 2.75 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hoffenheim and Freiburg at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offensive fireworks in this match and so are the oddsmakers with the total approaching three at most books. While I would still consider playing the 'over' at '3', I prefer to pay the extra juice to get it at 2.5 or at worst 2 3/4 here to ensure a 2-1 result cashes our ticket. Hoffenheim has incredibly gone 18 matches in this particular series without posting a clean sheet. With Freiburg currently scoring at will, the hosts will be hard-pressed to do so here as well. We've seen six of the last eight matches between these two squads go 'over' 2.5 goals. Freiburg has been somewhat forgiving defensively, noting that both teams have scored in four of its last five contests with all five of those matches going 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm confident we'll see Hoffenheim force the issue here as it sits six points clear of ninth-place Frankfurt and six points back of today's opponent, Freiburg, which sits three places ahead of it in the Bundesliga table - currently occupying one of the coveted top six spots. Of course, should Hoffenheim come out aggressively, that should only open the door for Freiburg to take advantage in transition. Take the over (6*). |
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04-25-22 | Juventus v. Sassuolo Calcio UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these squads are dealing with a number of key injuries and absences on the back line with multiple defenders slated to miss another match on Friday. While Mainz is coming off a less-than-thrilling 0-0 draw, I believe we're set up for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday. Note that Wolfsburg has seen 'over' 2.5 goals in four of its last five contests, conceding the first goal in four of those five matches as well. While Mainz has had little success on 'away' soil this Bundesliga campaign (it checks in 17th in the table when only factoring in 'away' matches) it should feel confident here as it has notched three goals in each of its last two dates with Wolfsburg, most recently securing a 3-0 victory last December. Wolfsburg is fresh off a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. It has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks but you have to figure we'll see it come out aggressively here after such a poor showing last time out. Noting that Mainz has gone winless in its last four matches, Wolfsburg will be keen to put it on its back foot early in this one. Note that Mainz has allowed just shy of two goals per contest away from home in Bundesliga action this season. On the flip side, while it is coming off a shotless performance in that nil-nil draw against Stuttgart, it hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely in an 'away' Bundesliga match since December. Take the over (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Roma v. Napoli OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Napoli and Roma at 1 pm et on Monday. Napoli enters this match undefeated in the last four matches in this series having not allowed a single goal in the last three. So it's understandable that we're dealing with a reasonably low total in Monday's contest. However, both teams have seen plenty of goals in their recent matches. Napoli has seen six of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. The same can be said for Roma in four of its last five matches. Given Napoli has seen both teams score in nine of its last 10 matches, I'm confident Roma can find at least a goal here. Note also that Roma has managed to find the back of the net first in four of its last five contests overall. As much as neither side will want to give an inch as they both sit in the coveted top-six in Serie A play, I'm anticipating some fireworks on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-22 | AS Monaco v. Rennes OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stade Rennes and AS Monaco at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any Ligue 1 team has played as entertaining of a brand of football as Stade Rennes lately, perhaps not even mighty PSG. It enters Friday's showdown with Monaco having gone undefeated over its last five matches but also not recording a single clean sheet over its last six contests. We've seen goals and scoring opportunities aplenty over that stretch and I'm anticipating more of the same on Friday. Monaco comes in playing some of its best football, having reeled off three straight wins, scoring at least two goals in each contest. It sits just a point back of Nice for one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two squads has totalled 'over' 2.5 goals. We've seen both teams score in each of the last 10 meetings in the series. You would have to go all the way back to March 6th, when it faced bottom-half Ligue 1 squad Angers, to find the last time Stade Rennes didn't concede a goal - seven matches back. Just three matches back Monaco held PSG off the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory, however, it has yielded goals against both Metz and Troyes over its last two contests. I simply like the form that both sides bring to the pitch on Friday and fully expect a 2-1 or better result. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-22 | Valencia v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia at 3 pm et on Monday. Both of these squads continue to sit in the middle-third of the La Liga table although home side Rayo Vallecano is by no means out of the woods, sitting just five points ahead of Cadiz, which sits in the first relegation spot. It has gone winless over its last 10 matches and will likely need to turn this into a rather cagey affair to come away with anything positive, noting that Valencia has been incredibly stingy, not allowing a single goal over its last three contests. In fact, both sides enter this match having seen five of their last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. While Rayo Vallecano has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet, this is a matchup it can handle, noting that Valencia has found only 20 goals in 15 'away' matches in La Liga play this season. You would have to go back three meetings in this series to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than two goals. We're just four matches removed from the last 0-0 draw in the series. Take the under (6*). |
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04-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Stuttgart OVER 3 | 2-0 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund at 2:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen 15 consecutive matches between these two teams go 'over' 2.5 total goals and that would be the way I suggest playing this clash on Friday as well (even with the juice). Stuttgart has gone undefeated in its last four matches to improve its chances of avoiding relegation but it certainly isn't out of the woods yet. Concerning is the fact that it has yielded at least a goal in 11 consecutive matches and it figures to be tested here against a powerful Dortmund attack. Note that both teams have found the back of the net in each of Stuttgart's last nine matches overall and it has failed to hold Dortmund off the scoresheet in 15 straight meetings between the two squads. Dortmund will undoubtedly be looking to put Stuttgart on its back foot early in this one, noting that the former enters this match off a disappointing 4-1 loss to RB Leipzig last weekend. Dortmund has come away victorious in its last two meetings with Stuttgart but has certainly had its hands full in this series, allowing nine goals in the last four matchups in the series. Take the over (6*). |
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04-07-22 | Atalanta v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Atalanta at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. While Atalanta doesn't necessarily bring the best offensive form into the first leg of this Europa League clash, I believe RB Leipzig is just vulnerable enough at the back and aggressive enough moving forward to allow the Italian side to find at least one goal in this contest - and that should be enough to carry this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. Leipzig of course enters this match undefeated in its last 10 contests across all competitions. I expect the German side to find continued success against an Atalanta side that is still missing its captain and anchor at the back in Rafael Toloi due to a groin injury. Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku has been showing off his all-world scoring touch with consistency and will prove to be a handful once again on Thursday. If there is a weakness on this Leipzig side I do feel its at the back, particularly in goal where Peter Gulacsi has appeared to be fighting the ball at times. Were it not for Atalanta's recent offensive struggles we would be working with a higher total here. However, the Italian side has found much of its success away from home soil and particularly in Europa League action and I'm confident it can do enough to help this total along on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
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03-14-22 | Real Madrid v. Mallorca OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Mallorca and Real Madrid at 4 pm et on Monday. We were involved in Mallorca's most recent match, cashing with Celta Vigo in a 4-3 thriller (thanks to a last minute penalty). Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as Mallorca hosts Real Madrid, which is off a thrilling victory over Paris-Saint Germain in Champions League action last week. Mallorca is in tough right now, with limited options other than a struggling Sergio Rico at keeper due to injuries and suspensions. Not only that but Mallorca's back line of defense is struggling mightily and will now have to face a Real Madrid squad that is brimming with confidence after Karim Benzema's second half hat trick against PSG. Note that this will be Mallorca's first shot at Real Madrid at home since back in 2019, when it pulled off a 1-0 stunner. Since then, Real has had its way in two meetings in this series, winning 2-0 and 6-1 in the host role. Given its vulnerabilities at the back-end, I'm sure Mallorca is well aware that it will need to find a goal (or two) to have any chance at coming away with a much needed point at least in this match. Sitting just two points clear of relegation, gaining something productive from this match is critical for Mallorca. While Real Madrid could elect to sit back and play for a 1-0 or 2-0 victory here, I think we see a different story unfold. Note that five of the last seven matches between these two squads have produced 'over' 2.5 goals. Take the over (6*). |
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03-13-22 | Rennes v. Olympique Lyonnais OVER 2.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Lyon and Stade Rennes at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. Lyon is fresh off a stunning 1-0 'away' win over Porto in Europa League action earlier this week. It had to hang on for that critical victory as it was peppered throughout the match but ultimately escaped with a clean sheet. I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate to keep Stade Rennes off the scoreboard on Sunday. Note that Rennes took the most recent meeting between these two sides by a 4-1 score. I certainly expect a revenge-minded Lyon squad to put forth a much better effort here, likely improving on that one-goal performance. But can it keep the Rennes offense at bay? The visitors have put up an impressive 10 goals across their last three Ligue 1 matches, most recently kept silent back on February 11th against mighty PSG. We've seen a couple of interesting trends in this particular series with Rennes going three consecutive matches against Lyon without posting a clean sheet but also managing to be 'first to score' in four of the last five meetings. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | St Etienne v. Lille OSC OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and St-Etienne at 3 pm et on Friday. Lille has been involved in its share of low-scoring contests lately but did bust out with a 4-0 victory over Clermont last time out and that's certainly something it can build on here as it hosts St-Etienne with eyes on one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Of course, St-Etienne is in a different battle entirely as it tries to avoid relegation, currently sitting just one point clear of 18th-place Lorient. St-Etienne is coming off a 1-0 victory over Metz last weekend in a match that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The margin likely could have been 3-4 goals were it not for a lack of execution or simply bad luck as St-Etienne carried the play and fired 13 shots at the Metz goal with five of them reaching target (not to mention a couple of posts). Concerning for St-Etienne here is the absence of a number of key defenders in a match it was going to have its hands full in regardless with Lille striker Jonathan David snapping his goal drought last time out and poised to build from that here. With both teams showing encouraging signs in their most recent match, and both desperate for points, albeit for much different reasons, I look for St-Etienne's trend of both teams scoring (four of its last five) and 'over' 2.5 total goals being scored (also four of its last five) to continue on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Crvena Zvezda v. Rangers UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rangers and Red Star Belgrade at 3 pm et on Thursday. We won with Rangers in the first leg and the 'over' in the second in the Scottish side's stunning upset over Borussia Dortmund (which was missing Erling Haaland) in the last stage of this tournament. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as I expect a much tighter affair to play out. Red Star enters this match on the heels of three consecutive clean sheets. In its last three 'away' matches in Europa League action it has only managed to find three goals while conceding only twice - both of those allowed goals coming in the second half. Rangers of course exploded for six goals in its two matches against Dortmund. I do think they'll have a much more difficult time breaking down Red Star, as strange as that may sound given Dortmund's stature in European football. In a matchup that could very well come down to 'away goals', I suspect we'll see both sides tighten up here, with neither having faced defeat in quite some time (Rangers are undefeated in their last nine while Red Star has won six matches in a row). Take the under (6*). |
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03-09-22 | Olympique Lyonnais v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Olympique Lyon at 12:45 pm et on Wednesday. If this were the second leg of this matchup, perhaps this total would make some sense. I don't believe it does in the first leg, however, as both squads possess plenty of firepower and will be looking to stake their claim on Wednesday. I see massive advantages up front for Portuguese powerhouse Porto in this one. The addition of Galeno - who sits tied atop the Europa League goal-scoring list with Karl Toko Ekambi of Lyon - coming over from Braga to add another dimension, not always even finding a place in Porto's starting XI, indicates the depth and talent the Portuguese side can turn to. Porto has gone 18 consecutive matches without a loss across all competitions and should be in good position to keep that streak intact here. With that being said, Lyon does pose a threat. The French side has actually seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals but should be drawn into a firefight here, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of Porto's last seven contests. Lyon has scored an incredible nine goals in its last three 'away' matches in Europa League play. If there's a weakness on Porto's squad its at the back-end and with Dembele and Ekambi ambitious in attack, I'm confident Lyon can find at least one goal in this contest. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Salzburg v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Champions League First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Salzburg surprisingly carried a 1-0 lead into halftime in the first leg of this Champions League matchup. In fact, it carried that lead all the way into injury time in the second half before Bayern Munich was able to equalize. I expect a much different story to unfold on German soil on Tuesday. Interestingly, Bayern Munich has seen a grand total of just three goals in its last two matches - both coming in Bundesliga play against Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen. Most expected a wave of goals in its most recent contest against Leverkusen but that sort of affair never came to pass. I do think the potential is there for plenty of fireworks in this one, however. We saw Bayern pour it on late in an effort to equalize in the first leg and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance on Tuesday. Salzburg has conceded four goals in its last three 'away' matches in Champions League play with three of those coming in the first half. Meanwhile, Bayern has netted a whopping 13 goals in its last three 'home' Champions League contests - six in the first half. Bayern will obviously be difficult for Salzburg to break down but I'm not about to completely dismiss the young and talented Austrian side. It enters this match on the heels of a 4-0 rout of SC Rheindorf Altach on Saturday. Note that while it has found the back of the net only twice in its last three 'away' Champions League matches, both of those goals came in the first 30 minutes. I think Salzburg will be well aware that it won't be able to hold Bayern at bay for as long as it did in the first leg. It is likely going to need to find at least two goals in order to have any hope of advancement in what would be a monumental upset. Regardless how this one plays out, I believe we're well-positioned to cash the first half 'over' as we either see Salzburg put Bayern back on its heels with an early goal, or the home side strikes and then the floodgates open as they often do at Allianz Arena. Take the first half over (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. Yesterday we saw a wild, high-scoring La Liga match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca as we cashed with Celta in a 4-3 win. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as Athletic hosts Levante with the first meeting between these two squads this season having resulted in a 0-0 draw back in November. I'm not convinced Levante will find many offensive opportunities in this match, let alone goals. It has scored just 12 times in 13 'away' matches in La Liga play this season and goes up against an Athletic squad that has conceded only 13 times in 12 'home' contests. Athletic's back line has performed reasonably well but the results haven't been there as it has dropped consecutive matches, first in La Liga play against Barcelona (0-4) and then in Copa Del Rey action against Valencia (0-1). Needless to say, scoring has been a bit of an issue, somewhat lacking in the dynamic talent department up front. Levante should offer plenty of opportunity for Athletic to bust out of its scoring slump but whether the latter can take full advantage remains to be seen. Note that Levante does bring terrific defensive form into this contest, having yielded just one goal in its last three matches, despite two of those three contests coming against the likes of top-10 sides Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two sides have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. With Levante going winless in the last eight meetings it will simply be looking to hang on for a point here as it continues to fight its way out of the La Liga basement (and potential relegation). Take the under (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Sevilla v. Alavés UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Deportivo Alaves and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring La Liga affairs last weekend with Sevilla securing a thrilling 2-1 victory over Real Betis and Deportivo Alaves sharing the points in a 2-2 draw against Getafe. Here, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as these two squads kick off the new La Liga week. I fully expect both sides to come out with their guard up in this one, noting that both Alaves and Sevilla have managed to strike first in four of their last five matches, respectively. With that being said, Sevilla has had little trouble controlling proceedings in recent meetings between the two Spanish sides, going undefeated in the last nine matches, scoring first in five of the last seven. In fact, Alaves has gone nine consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet in this series. With relegation a distinct possibility for the first time in a number of years, this is without a doubt a key match for the home side, which has found some success in the hosts role this season. If Alaves are to come away with a point, they're likely going to need to keep this one scoreless for as long as possible, noting that Sevilla has been incredibly stingy, allowing only 18 goals in 26 La Liga matches this season. Finally, we'll note that eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides have totalled less than 2.5 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mallorca and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Wednesday. A key match for both of these sides as Real Sociedad looks to draw into one of the coveted top-six spots in the table while Mallorca tries to distance itself further from potential relegation. Neither side has been all that inspiring lately and I'm anticipating just such an affair on Wednesday. Mallorca has gone 11 matches without posting a clean sheet and will be hard-pressed to break that streak here but I do think we see it put forth a valiant effort. Note that Mallorca has allowed just 12 goals in 13 home matches in La Liga play this season. On the flip side though, Mallorca has also only scored 13 goals in those 13 home matches. Considering Sociedad hasn't yielded a single goal in its last four dates with Mallorca (all victories), it's likely to be tough sledding offensively for the home side in this one. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Cadiz at 3 pm et on Monday. With home side Granada having gone winless in its last seven matches and currently sitting only three points clear of relegation and four points above today's opponent Cadiz, I'm anticipating a cagey affair between these two on Monday. A draw certainly wouldn't be the worst result for either side and for that to happen, I suspect the match will be of the low-scoring variety. Note that we've seen each of the last five matches in this series total 2.5 goals or less. Cadiz has gone undefeated in its last five matches with Granada so we know that despite its struggled in La Liga play this season, it can hold its own in this matchup. With Granada having gone six matches without posting a clean sheet, and with plenty of extra preparation time for this match, I am confident that it can hold down the Cadiz offense, however, noting that the latter has managed only 12 goals in 12 'away' matches this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atalanta and Sampdoria at 2:50 pm et on Monday. |
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02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Montpellier and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a cagey start between these two French sides on Friday with a lot on the line ahead of this clash at Stade de la Mosson. Stade Rennes currently holds down one of the coveted conference league qualifying top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table but by the slimmest of margins. It sits just two points clear of AS Monaco. Note that while today's opponent Montpellier sits in ninth position, that leaves it only three points behind Les Rennais, certainly ratcheting up the importance of this clash. Here, we'll note that Stade Rennes has allowed a grand total of just three first half goals in 12 'away' matches in Ligue 1 play this season. For its part, Montpellier has given up seven first half strikes in 13 Ligue 1 'home' contests. All signs would seemingly point to an early Stade Rennes goal in this contest given its penchant for achieving such not only recently, but in this particular series. However, giving me pause to that notion is the fact that Montpellier hasn't conceded a first half goal in any of its last four matches overall. Two early goals allowed put Montpellier virtually out of contention for the three points the last time these two squads met last November (that one ended 2-0 in favor of Les Rennais). The fact that the rematch will play out on its home turf should assist in keeping Montpellier level in this particular contest for considerably longer. Take the first half under (5*). |
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02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Norwich City at 3 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in Southampton's most recent match as it could only find two goals in a blanking of Everton. Here, I think we see things open up a little more with Norwich City looking to pull off the stunner against a rolling Southampton side on Friday. We can be all but assured that Southampton will find the back of the goal in this contest, noting that it has done so in 11 straight matches across all competitions. However, it's also worth mentioning that both sides have scored in eight of Southampton's last nine matches overall. While Norwich City finds itself sitting at the bottom of the EPL table, five points back of safety from relegation, it has shown some promise in recent weeks and months. Despite its scoring problems overall this season it has actually managed to find the back of the net first in five of its last six contests. Unfortunately in this particular matchup, it has failed to strike first in five consecutive meetings, with four of those five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's no reason to raise our level of concern too high should this one get off to a slow start, noting that Norwich has incredibly conceded 27 of its 53 goals this season in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its matches. Meanwhile, Southampton has allowed 22 of its 37 goals in the second half. Take the over (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Elche at 3 pm et on Friday. We've been involved in a few recent matches involving Levante and Elche, most recently suffering a tough loss fading Levante in a match were it struck very late to earn a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, we won with the 'over' in Elche's most recent contest - a 2-1 win over Raya Vallecano one week ago. Here, I'm not anticipating much in terms of offensive fireworks. We've seen five of the last six meetings in this series total less than 2.5 goals and I'm anticipating more of the same. This has the makings of a rather uneventful affair for Elche, which currently sits in no man's land in 14th spot in the La Liga table, nine points clear from relegation but 10 points back of a coveted top-six place. As for Levante, despite its recent modest success, it is still in last place, nine points behind the safety of the 17th spot. It has managed to score just 13 goals in 12 home matches this season while Elche has the very same number of goals in one additional contest away from home. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last four matches, Elche will be looking to tighten things up here and might just have the perfect opponent to do so against. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I expect both sides to take a rather cautious approach in this one. Hoffenheim holds down one of the coveted top-six spots in the table but is just two points clear of seventh-placed Koln. It certainly wants to take something, if not all three points, away from this very winnable clash on Friday. Noting, however, that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches and hasn't posted a clean sheet in any of its last four meetings with Stuttgart, it will need to be careful not to get too complacent here. On a positive note, Stuttgart has managed only 27 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches this season. For its part it has gone winless in the last four meetings in this series and has been first to conceded in five of its last six contests overall. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of those most recent six matches, we can be certain where it's concentration will lie in this particular contest. While we won with the 'over' in Hoffenheim's most recent match - a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, I believe this particular total will prove too high. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Udinese at 12:45 pm et on Friday. AC Milan is coming off a surprising 2-2 draw against Salernitana last weekend but should make amends here in what I believe will be a relatively high-scoring contest against Udinese. Udinese simply can't afford to 'park the bus' and hope for the best in an effort to take something away from this match. It sits only three points clear of the bottom-three relegation spots in the Serie A table. On a promising note, it has managed to find the back of the net in six consecutive matchups with AC Milan. In fact, Udinese has been first to score in four of the last five matches between these two sides. That said, the Serie A leading outfit, AC Milan, will be looking to extend its five-match undefeated streak and should have little difficulty doing so against a Udinese squad that has yielded 41 goals in 24 Serie A matches this season. Thanks to picking up only a point in what was an expected victory last time out, Milan still sits atop the Serie A table but only two points clear of both Inter Milan and Napoli, with Inter taking the pitch later today. While the last two meetings between Milan and Udinese have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we've seen both teams find at least a goal in four straight matchups. With the underdog side desperate to earn at least a point and Milan determined to pick up all three, I believe we're well-positioned for goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Zenit Petersburg v. Betis OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Real Betis and Zenit St. Petersburg at 3 pm et on Thursday. The first leg of this match resulted in a 3-2 victory for Real Betis. It will look to put the matchup to bed with another victory (or draw) on Thursday but I'm not convinced it will come easy. Note that Real Betis has now gone five matches without posting a clean sheet so it's likely we'll see St. Petersburg apply some pressure throughout this one. For its part, Zenit has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet and has also seen five of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. Better still, eight of Real Betis' last nine matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's certainly some weakness at the back end for Zenit and Real Betis is more than capable of taking advantage, just as we saw when it struck three times in the first leg. With that being said, I don't believe Real Betis boasts an airtight back end either, with keeper Rui Silva proving particularly vulnerable of late. Take the over (9*). |
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02-24-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Rangers OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Rangers and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Thursday. No Erling Haaland for Dortmund again for the second leg of this Europa League clash but I don't believe the away side will have any trouble finding the back of the net in a desperate attempt to stave off elimination on Thursday. We won with Rangers in their stunning 4-2 upset win one week ago. They'll obviously be under fire for much of this return match but I'm confident they can come up with some answers as well, helping this one 'over' the total. Note that five of Rangers' last seven matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals while each of Dortmund's last 10 contests have gone 'over' that number. Rangers shouldn't be short on confidence as they roll into this one undefeated in their last five matches and having struck first in eight of their last 10 contests. Dortmund is vulnerable at the back end, particularly in goal where keeper Gregor Kobel has struggled mightily in three of his last five matches. Meanwhile, Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos has found the back of the net four times in his last four contests. Expect plenty of fireworks in this intriguing Thursday affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arsenal and Wolverhampton at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. I expect a cagey affair between these two squads that are separated by just two points in the EPL table and well within striking distance of the coveted top-five placement. Arsenal checks in undefeated in its last three matches and has also seen five of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. The Gunners will need to be cautious here as Wolverhampton has opened the scoring in six of its last eight contests. Wolverhampton has failed to post a clean sheet in any of its last 15 matches against Arsenal but we are talking about a different club this season. Wolves have allowed only 18 goals in 24 EPL matches. One of those goals came at the hands of the Gunners just two weeks ago in a 1-0 defeat. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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02-23-22 | Ajax Amsterdam v. Benfica OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Benfica and Ajax at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw two relatively low-scoring Champions League matches yesterday with both resulting in just two total goals. I expect nothing of the sort in this Round of 16 clash on Wednesday. Benfica knows that goals will be hard to come by when the scene shifts to Amsterdam for the second leg of this match next month. With that in mind, it also realizes that if it wants to have any hope of advancing past Dutch power Ajax, it will need to come up with a tremendous showing in Lisbon on Wednesday. Benfica does enter this match undefeated over its last three contests, also having been first to score in five of its last seven matches overall. Of concern, though, is the fact that it has gone six consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet and will now have to deal with a relentless and powerful Ajax attack that rolls into this contest on the heels of 10 consecutive victories. Of course, the level of competition Ajax has faced does have to be factored in. I think that has buoyed the Dutch squad's impressive goal-prevention ability more than anything else though. Ajax hasn't given up a single goal in its last four matches but I do expect it to concede at least one here. Note that in spite of that air tight defense of late, Ajax has still seen seven of its last eight contests find their way 'over' 2.5 goals. Benfica is certainly accustomed to getting involved in back-and-forth affairs, with each of its last six matches featuring goals from both sides. These two squads have actually met three times since 2014 with Benfica failing to post a clean sheet in any of those matches. It also only managed to score once across those three tilts, but it could be argued that it boasts a great deal more firepower now than it did the last time they met back in 2018. Frighteningly for the Portuguese side, so does Ajax. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-21-22 | Napoli v. Cagliari UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 120 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cagliari and Napoli at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with Napoli +0.5 goal in its most recent match - a Europa League clash against Barcelona last Thursday. We saw Napoli execute its gameplan to perfection in that match, grabbing a first half lead and sitting on it as long as it could, ultimately coming away with a draw on the strength of that critical 'away goal'. Now it's back to Serie A action against one of the worst teams of the bunch in Cagliari. Currently sitting in 18th position, one point back of Venezia, Cagliari is flirting with relegation right now. It could desperately use a point from this match but to earn that it will need to tighten things up as should it fall behind, it's highly unlikely to level proceedings, noting that Napoli has allowed a grand total of just 17 goals in 25 Serie A contests this season. With that being said, I'm anticipating a rather cagey start to this affair. Note that Napoli enters this match having seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Cagliari has gone 'under' that total in four of its last five contests. Both teams should come in confident with Cagliari edging closer to safety thanks to going undefeated over its last there matches and Napoli avoiding defeat for five consecutive games. If you can find the first half 'under' 1.5 goals that's how I'm playing this one (laying some considerable juice to do so) but 1.0 is playable as well. Take the first half under (6*). |
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02-20-22 | Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wolverhampton and Leicester City at 11:30 am et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Leicester City's most recent EPL match but I won't hesitate to go the other way as it faces Wolverhampton on Sunday. Note that Leicester has now gone seven consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet. It will need to be particularly careful on Sunday, noting that Wolves have scored the first goal in five of their last seven contests. It's certainly worth noting, however, that Leicester has gone five straight matches in this series without allowing a goal. Each of the last five meetings between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. While both teams can certainly use the three points as they try to ascend the EPL table, they can also ill afford to come up empty-handed. Expect both to plot carefully in what I anticipate being a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Verona v. Roma OVER 2 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between AS Roma and Hellas Verona at 12 noon et on Saturday. This promises to be an entertaining affair between two squads looking to pull closer to the top-six in Serie A by taking all three points in Saturday's game in Rome. Roma will need to keep on its front foot for this one having failed to earn a victory in any of its last three matches. There should be opportunities aplenty for the home side, however, noting that Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in five of their last seven contests with the 'over' 2.5 goals coming through in five of their last six overall. You would have to go back six meetings in this series to find the last time Roma posted a clean sheet against Hellas Verona. Not surprisingly each of the last five meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. I don't believe either side will be content to 'settle' for a draw in this one and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Watford v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Aston Villa and Watford at 10 am et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as Aston Villa host a very manageable matchup on Saturday in Birmingham. Watford sits just one place above last in the EPL table and doesn't figure to pose a significant threat here having not scored a single goal in its last four matches, with no victories in its last 12 trips to the pitch. Of course, Aston Villa hasn't exactly been getting off on the right foot lately either, conceding the first goal in four of its last five matches. I'm just not convinced Watford has the firepower to take advantage of any Villa short-comings here. We have seen Watford play a more competitive brand of football away from home this season, ranking 16th rather than 19th when factoring in only 'away' contests. Aston Villa has struck just 31 times in 23 EPL matches this season so I do think Watford will fancy its chances of potentially coming away with a low-scoring draw in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-19-22 | Everton v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Everton at 10 am et on Saturday. With matches in hand on the majority of the squads it looks up at in the English Premier League table, Everton can attempt to make a move but desperately needs all three points from Saturday's away match at Southampton. Interestingly, Southampton enters Saturday's contest undefeated over its last four matches, yet has conceded first in four of its last five overall. You would incredibly have to go back 16 matches to find the last time Southampton posted a clean sheet and I believe it will be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat on Saturday as well. Everton has been involved in its share of relatively high-scoring affairs recently, with six of its last seven matches resulting in at least three total goals. Noting that both combatants have scored in each of Southampton's last 10 contests, we can anticipate another crackling affair on Saturday. While Southampton has generally fallen behind the eight-ball with some consistency lately, it has actually struck first in five of its last seven matchups with Everton. Both teams have found the back of the net in eight of the last 10 meetings in this series but I believe they can do one better on Saturday with one of the two sides capturing the three points. Take the over (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Wolfsburg gets an opportunity to continue to climb the Bundesliga ranks as it goes for its third straight victory on Saturday. A win certainly won't come easy against fifth-place Hoffenheim but I do think it has a puncher's chance and that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Hoffenheim is coming off a much-needed 2-0 home win over Bielefield last time out. I expect it to face a far tougher challenge here, however. Note that despite that recent 2-0 victory, Hoffenheim has still seen both teams find the back of the net in eight of its last 10 games, conceding first in six of its last eight contests. Of course, it will be tough sledding for Wolfsburg here when you consider that it hasn't posted a clean sheet against Hoffenheim in any of the last 10 meetings in this series. Not surprisingly, each of the last seven matches between these two squads have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams scoring in each of the last seven meetings. With Hoffenheim looking to stay in the top-six and Wolfsburg aiming to inch closer to the top-10 positions in the Bundesliga, look for plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Villarreal v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Villarreal at 8 am et on Saturday. Granada will have to be extremely careful in this contest as it is clearly overmatched against Villarreal but might just be able to muck it up enough to come away with a hard-fought point if it plays its cards right. Granada enters this match having lost four matches in a row, failing to score in its last three. It has gone five consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet but is capable of accomplishing such a feat, keeping in mind we saw a 0-0 draw the last time these two squads met last August. Villarreal enters this match undefeated over its last three contests. It didn't allow a goal in any of those matches. Villarreal knows it can control proceedings against Granada - after all, it has gone undefeated in the last 11 meetings in this series. I'm just not convinced we'll see it shake loose offensively with Granada likely falling back into a defensive shell for much of the contest. While we've seen some offensive explosions in this series in the past, those type of affairs have been few and far between. Take the under (7*). |
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02-18-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Elche OVER 2 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Elche and Rayo Vallecano at 3 pm et on Friday. Neither of these squads are turning heads in La Liga action this season with Raya Vallecano sagging lately to fall all the way to 11th place and Elche sitting even further behind in 14th. With that being said, I'm expecting an entertaining affair between the two on Friday. Vallecano has reason to come out aggressively, having failed to register a victory in any of its last three matches. This is a favorable match for it to break out of its recent funk, noting that Elche has gone three consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet while failing to do so in each of the last six meetings between these two squads. On the flip side, there's reason for Elche to be confident that it can find some success, noting that Vallecano has conceded the first goal in five of its last seven matches, and both teams have managed to find the back of the net in five of the last six matches in this series. While goals haven't necessarily been easy to come by for Elche, it's biggest issue lies at its own end of the pitch, where it has conceded 33 goals in 24 La Liga matches this season. Most alarming is the fact that it has conceded eight goals in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its league matches, showing an inability to button things up in crunch time. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-22 | Metz v. Lille OSC OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and Metz at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Lille but not without some hesitation for one particular reason. We've seen it have a difficult time keeping the ball out of its net when it matters most, allowing 18 of its 35 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of the first or second half this season. While it sits a respectable 10th in the league table, it is the only squad inside the top 11 with a negative goal differential. It could easily take Ligue 1 bottom-feeder Metz (19th overall) lightly in this contest. Note that Metz has gone winless in its last three matches, with a recent tendency to get involved in low-scoring affairs as six of its last seven contests have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. With that being said, I believe Lille can force it into a higher-scoring contest here, noting that both teams have scored in six of its last eight matches overall. Having scored a grand total of just three goals over a difficult three-match slate going back to late January, Lille will be eager for an opportunity to break loose here, and break loose it should considering that Metz has conceded a whopping 45 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches this season. Speaking of struggling to contain opposing offenses when it matters most, Metz has been lit up for 20 goals in the final 15 minutes of the first or second half this season. Interestingly, though, Metz actually checks in ninth in Ligue 1 when factoring in only 'away' matches, albeit still with a poor -10 goal differential. It has found a way to play reasonably competitive football in hostile environments and should that be the way this one plays out, I believe we'll be in fine shape with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-22 | Real Sociedad v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.25 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Thursday. RB Leipzig picked up a much needed 3-1 victory over Koln last Friday and should bring plenty of confidence into this home affair against Real Sociedad on Thursday. As for Sociedad, it will likely be happy to get out of La Liga for one match at least as it has managed to win just once in its last three league contests, scoring only two goals along the way. In fact, it has scored a grand total of just two goals in its last four matches across all competitions. I simply feel there's too much talent on this side for that run of futility to be sustainable. I would certainly expect it to find some opportunities against an RB Leipzig squad that will undoubtedly push the pace in this one. Note that Sociedad has seen each of its last two Europa League affairs go 'over' 2.5 total goals. I'm confident that both sides will be willing participants in a high-energy contest here with Sociedad determined to pick up an away goal. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Bayern Munich v. Salzburg OVER 2.75 | 1-1 | Loss | -122 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bayern doesn't exactly bring its best form into this Champions League match on Wednesday, fresh off a stunning 4-2 away defeat at the hands of Bochum on Saturday. That should only serve to ramp up its focus ahead of this critical contest against a punchy Red Bull Salzburg squad on Wednesday, and I believe it lends itself to a rather fast start in this one. Note that Bayern has been first to score in each of its last seven matches - a scenario I can certainly see playing out once again here. With that being said, we've also seen it have trouble containing opposing attacks, allowing seven goals over its last three matches. Salzburg comes in confident off of three consecutive wins but has proven vulnerable at the back end in Champions League play, having yielded four first half goals to the opposition in its last six UCL matches and it only gets tougher against a BM squad in a foul mood on Wednesday. Of course, Bayern has been clinical in the early stages of Champions League action, scoring nine first half goals in its last six UCL contests. If Salzburg is to have any sort of a chance of keeping within arm's reach of Bayern, it needs to get off to a promising start. Keep in mind, Bayern prevailed by scores of 6-2 and 3-1 in Champions League matches between these two back in 2020, holding a combined 3-1 edge in the first half of those two contests. Salzburg desperately needs to fight fire with fire in this case, as it is highly unlikely that it will be able to contain Bayern for long. I expect plenty of early fireworks between these two on Wednesday. Take the first half over (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Liverpool v. Inter Milan UNDER 3.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Inter Milan and Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect either of these sides to give an inch, particularly in the early stages of Wednesday's Champions League clash. To say that Inter Milan has been stingy in the first half in Champions League play would be an understatement. It has given up a grand total of one goal in the first half of its previous six UCL contests. Liverpool has been a little more forgiving, allowing five first half goals in its last six UCL affairs but I'm not convinced Inter will be able to take advantage. Note that Inter has found the back of the net only once over its last six UCL matches. Inter knows it will need to be extremely cautious here in the home leg of this UCL showdown as Liverpool comes in hot, having won six matches in a row - undefeated in its last nine matches overall. Liverpool has also managed to kick off the scoring in each of its last six contests. We were benefactors of that in its most recent match as we backed the Reds in the first half against Burnley over the weekend. Of course, we were fortunate to cash that ticket as Liverpool waited until the waning moments of the first half to finally strike. While there's plenty of offensive punch to be featured in this one, I'm not sure we'll see the action really heat up before halftime, with a 'feeling out' process likely the first order of the day. Take the first half 'under' (6*). |
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02-16-22 | Reading v. Peterborough United OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Peterborough United and Reading at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. Low totals are generally the norm in the English Championship, and sometimes for good reason as we saw in Monday's Blackburn-West Brom match that saw no offensive fireworks whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as two desperate sides near the bottom of the table do battle. Incredibly, it's been 20 matches since Reading last posted a clean sheet. With that being said, Peterborough checks in having allowed the first goal in five of its last seven matches. Having been shut out in its last two contests, Peterborough will undoubtedly be looking to take advantage of this mouth-watering matchup, noting that it hasn't been shut out by Reading in any of the last six meetings in this series. In fact, each of the last eight matchups between these two English sides has gone 'over' the 2.5 goal total we're working with on Wednesday. Additionally, both teams have found the back of the net in five of the last six matches between the two. Few squads have been as forgiving as these two this season, with Reading having posted a -24 goal differential and Peterborough considerably worse in that department at -37. The question is of course whether either side has the creativity or punch to break through offensively. Given the matchup, I'm confident they can. The last match in the series came last September with Reading cruising to a 3-1 win. We can anticipate some form of payback from Peterborough here and I believe that lends itself to another relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Levante v. Atletico Madrid OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atletico Madrid and Levante at 1 pm et on Wednesday. While I'm not interested in playing a side here with the odds tilted considerably in Atletico's favor, I will make a play on the total as I'm confident we see another relatively high-scoring affair between these two squads, which check in at virtually opposite ends of the La Liga spectrum. You would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Atletico posted a clean sheet. Similarly, it hasn't held lowly Levante off the scoreboard in the last three matches in this series. That includes the last time it hosted Levante almost a year ago to the day, when it was stunned 2-0. Here, I'm confident we'll see Atletico pour it on and Levante figures to serve as an ideal punching bag having lost three matches in a row, not to mention conceding the first goal in four of its last five contests. We've seen a nice run of six consecutive matches involving Atletico finding their way 'over' 2.5 goals. I do believe that Levante can make some contribution in this one as well, noting that it will come in confident having not lost any of its last three meetings with the seemingly superior Atletico side. It's certainly worth noting that the winning side has scored at least three goals all on its own in five of Levante's last seven La Liga matches. The only occasions where we didn't see such a story unfold came in matches against Mallorca and Cadiz, two of La Liga's bottom-six squads (Levante currently sits in last place in La Liga). Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with Manchester United as its misery continued with a disappointing 1-1 home draw against Southampton on Saturday. I see this as a fine 'get right' spot, particularly at the offensive end of the pitch but given the Red Devils recent vulnerability at the back-end, I suspect Brighton & Hove will be able to find some success as well. The fact that we're dealing with a relatively low posted total is no surprise. Man U has seen four of its last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Brighton in five of its last six contests. That's a bit conflicting, however, as both teams have scored in five of Man U's last six matches and seven of Brighton's last eight. Also, in spite of the Red Devils recent struggles, going winless in their last three matches, they've actually managed to score first in seven straight matches and here will face a Brighton squad that tends to play from behind, allowing the first score in five of its last six. In this particular series, goals haven't been all that difficult to come by. In fact, each of the last seven meetings between these two squads has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams finding the back of the net in five of those contests. You would have to go back eight meetings to find the last time Brighton shut Man U out entirely so again, this looks like a fine 'get right' situation, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Real Madrid v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these squads are coming off tight, low-scoring affairs with PSG prevailing on a goal in injury time against Stade-Rennes and Real Madrid settling for a 0-0 draw against Villarreal. Of course, in the case of the latter, we know that La Liga is often where quality offenses go to die. Perhaps that's a bit harsh, but 0-0 affairs in Spain are by no means out of the ordinary. Seeing PSG held to just a single goal and needing the full 90 minutes and then some to get it was surprising, however. While we haven't seen these two European powerhouses meet since 2019, there's been a history of thrilling, relatively high-scoring matchups between the two. In fact, each of the last five meetings has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals - the total we're working with on Tuesday (at the time of writing). In four of those five matches we saw both teams find the back of the net, and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Getting away from league play should serve to open things up for both sides after getting bogged down last time out. Note that PSG has had a penchant for taking the reins in its matches, scoring the first goal in four of its last five trips to the pitch. I'm confident it can set Real Madrid back on its heels here as well. An answer should never be far off for Madrid, however, noting that it has excelled in Champions League action, posting a 5-0-1 record to date, scoring 14 goals in the process. Take the over (7*). |
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02-14-22 | Blackburn Rovers v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between West Brom and Blackburn at 3 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams bring poor scoring form to the table on Monday - a big reason why we're being offered a plus-money return to back the 'over' 2.5 goals. West Brom remains in third-place in the EFL standings but has failed to bulge the twine in its last three matches, losing all three of those games. Blackburn is in a battle to simply remain in playoff contention and has gone winless in its last three matches, failing to score in any of those. With all of that being said, West Brom hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five matches against Blackburn. Worse still, Blackburn hasn't shut out West Brom in any of the last seven meetings. Each of the last five matches between these two has seen both teams score and five of the last seven have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. Both squads realize the importance of this week-opener. As I mentioned, West Brom sits in third position but the other teams it is contending with at the top of the table have matches in hand so earning three points from this match is critical. Blackburn is in similar position but considerably lower in the table and needs to take something away from this contest in order to improve its playoff prospects. Take the over (8*). |
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02-14-22 | Fiorentina v. Spezia Calcio OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Spezia and Fiorentina at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting goals aplenty in this match as Spezia hosts Fiorentina on Monday. Spezia plays a free-flowing style that tends to afford plenty of scoring opportunities to the opposing side so it's not a big surprise that it sits near the bottom of the Serie A table. Interestingly, it does enter this match having gone undefeated over its last four so there's reason for confidence against a Fiorentina side that is not without its own warts. Fiorentina has been forced to play a man down due to red cards in each of its last three Serie A matches. Note that the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in five of its last six trips to the pitch and you would have to go back four matches to find the last time it posted a clean sheet. It should also be confident as a favorite here, however, noting that it has gone undefeated in the last three meetings between these two squads, finding the back of the net in all three of those matches. Expect an entertaining affair between these two teams on Monday. Take the over (6*). |
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02-13-22 | West Ham United v. Leicester OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Leicester City and West Ham at 11:30 am et on Sunday. Both of these squads are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday. Leicester enters this match winless over its last four contests. It has also yielded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. While West Ham has had a tendency to get involved in lower-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup as each of the last six meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. For Leicester's part, it has failed to register a clean sheet in each of its last 10 meetings with West Ham. We've consistently seen highly-competitive affairs between these two with both teams finding the back of the net in six of the last seven matchups. Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Union Berlin OVER 2.75 | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund at 9:30 am et on Sunday. Dortmund won't have the services of Erling Haaland for this match and that's a big reason why we're dealing with a total as low as we are. I believe it will prove too low. Dortmund is of course likely going to have to get used to playing without its high-profile striker as he's rumored to be moving on to greener pastures. Here, we'll note that Dortmund has gone six matches without posting a clean sheet and the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in each of its last seven contests. On the flip side, Union Berlin checks in off a 2-0 defeat against potential relegation candidate Augsburg. Note that it has conceded at least a goal in eight consecutive matches in this series. That's not to say it has been all that one-sided though as both teams have scored in six of the last eight meetings and five of the last six have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair, even without Haaland in the mix on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-22 | Aston Villa v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Newcastle and Aston Villa at 9 am et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams on Sunday. Both squads enter Sunday's contest undefeated over their last three matches. It's also worth noting that four of Newcastle's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Speaking of 'under' trends, the last 10 meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Interestingly, Aston Villa has gone undefeated in the last five meetings but it doesn't exactly bring tremendous form into this contest, having only managed one victory and two draws in its last six matches. Newcastle on the other hand is coming off a 3-1 win over Everton - its second victory in a row. A letdown could certainly be in order here and it will need to be careful considering Aston Villa has struck first in four of the last five matches in this series. Take the under (9*). |
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02-12-22 | VfL Wolfsburg v. Eintracht Frankfurt OVER 2.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt at 9:30 am et on Saturday. I look for both of these German sides to 'go for it' in Saturday's key fixture at Deutsche Bank Park. Frankfurt is coming off a 3-2 win over Stuttgart and can potentially earn European qualification by picking up all three points in this match on Saturday. That result is certainly well within the realm of possibility against a Wolfsburg side that is simply looking to avoid potential relegation at this point. Keep in mind, Wolfsburg had faced a very difficult slate of matches prior to a win last time out. With renewed confidence there's certainly a window of opportunity cracked here as Frankfurt has been anything but consistent. Frankfurt yielded far more productive scoring chances than the end result showed in that most recent 3-2 victory. That poor defensive form could lend itself to another tightly-contested affair here. Frankfurt will be fortunate to welcome back midfielder Filip Kostic for this match after he missed the victory over Stuttgart due to flu-like symptons. However, it will likely be missing key defender Hasebe due to a rib injury. Kruse and Wind will look to once again find some fruits for their labor on the attack for Wolfsburg. Take the over (9*). |
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09-06-21 | Mali v. Uganda OVER 2 | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.75 goals between Uganda and Mali at 9 am et on Monday. |
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09-05-21 | Kenya v. Rwanda UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.0 goals between Rwanda and Kenya at 9 am et on Sunday. While Rwanda will be at home for this match, where it has gone undefeated in its last three matches, it will by no means be an easy task as it looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to Mali last time out. Kenya is the considerably higher ranked squad but after earning a point in a 0-0 draw against Uganda, it will simply be looking to carve out a similar result here. In fact, the 0-0 draw would serve both sides just fine on Sunday. That's a good thing as neither squad boasts much offensive firepower while at the same time being fairly difficult to break down defensively. Kenya has gone undefeated in its last five matches and should be the very definition of a 'tough out' away from home in this one. Note that Rwanda hasn't managed to tally a single marker in its last four matches against the Kenyans. This is a low total, even by international soccer standards. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set it low enough. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians. Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes. With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March. Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-26-21 | Crvena Zvezda v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between CFR Cluj and Red Star Belgrade at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm reccomending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.0 goals, laying about -175 to do so at the time of writing. This of course ensures we at least get a push should the match end on exactly two goals. If alternate totals are not available at your book, I would still suggest playing the 'over' at 2.25 goals. Red Star Belgrade is looking to advance in Europa League action after bitter disappointment in Champions League qualification. It should be well on its way after securing a 4-0 victory at home in the first leg of this matchup. Despite the seemingly comfortable lead, I don't expect Red Star to sit back and 'park the bus' in this one as an aggressive attacking CFR Cluj side should afford the Serbian superclub plenty of opportunities to expand its margin. Cluj are no strangers to high-scoring affairs, noting that they fell by an aggregate 4-2 score against Young Boys in their unglorious Champions League exit. The seven-time Romanian champions do still have to carry some confidence here as they've actually gone a perfect 6-0 in league play this season and will certainly want to put on a good show here at home. Note that for as well as Red Star has performed, it has already lost a pair of matches away from home in league play and has dropped four of its last six overall on the road. Cluj is expected to have forward Alexandru Paun back for this match following his one-game suspension. I see little reason for the Romanian side to hold anything back as it needs a small miracle to secure advancement from this tie. We'll without a doubt see changes to the Cluj lineup following an unfruitful effort in the first leg. Red Star will undoubtedly use this match as a step-off point as it looks to continue on in Europa League play while also tuning up prior to its return to league action. As I said, this is a squad that has an attacking mindset regardless the situation and I don't expect to see it satisfied with its 4-0 lead. I suspect there are at least three goals to be had in this match. Take the over 2.0 goals (6*). |
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08-26-21 | Zalgiris v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25 | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Zalgiris and Bodo Glimt at 12 noon et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.5 goals (laying -195 at the time of writing). The standard total currently being offered is 3.0 goals. This is a Europa Conference League match. Bodo Glimt holds a considerable talent edge in this match yet the first leg ended in a 2-2 draw. I'm confident that result will have both sides come out with an attacking mindset in this one, noting that each of the previous two matches between these two squads has totaled exactly four goals (Bodo won 3-1 last September). The real question here is whether we believe Zalgiris can break through as the match price says it all with Bodo Glimt a considerable favorite. I believe it can do just that as Bodo has proven to be vulnerable on the back end - noting that it has seen at least three total goals scored in 10 of its last 16 matches, despite many of those matches coming against inferior opposition. We already witnessed Bodo Glimt become somewhat complacent in the second half in the first leg of this matchup and a similar situation is in the cards here - especially if/when they build a lead. They're capable of messing around as much as they'd like and still finding the back of the net on a couple of occasions here. Meanwhile, having already found a marker in each of the last two meetings, Zalgiris has a blueprint for denting the Bodo defense. I believe we'll see a worst-case scenario 2-1 result here and more likely higher-scoring affair. Take the over 2.5 goals (5*). |