This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20.  Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few.  Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively.  How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on RICHMOND

Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season!  There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on USC

USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on BAYLOR

Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BALL ST

Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE

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This is an 8* on CALIFORNIA

California went just 8-23 SU last season and finished last in the Pac 12 with a 3-15 conference record. But things are already looking much brighter in Berkeley this season. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start for new coach Mark Fox and now have an excellent shot at opening 3-0.  On Tuesday, they were able to pick up an overtime win over UNLV. They won 79-75 as 3.5-point favorites. That was after we took them in the season opener when they delivered a "surprise" win over Pepperdine, 87-71 as two-point underdogs.  As we stated before that Cal-Pepperdine game, the Bears were very likely to improve this season after "bottoming out" under former coach Wyking Jones. Matt Bradley looks like a superstar after scoring 48 points in the first two games. This team is so much better than it was the last two seasons. But the oddsmakers have not caught on yet. Cal Baptist has already played three times, winning twice. The loss came on Tuesday as they faced #25 Texas. The Lancers could score only 54 points against the Longhorns, a major change from the first two games when they scored 93 and 112 against lesser competition. CBU gets 42.9% of its total points from behind the three-point arc, which is a very high percentage. They likely won't be able to sustain that. The Lancers also don't play very good defense, ranking near the bottom of D-I in both block and steal rate. They covered against Texas because the Longhorns couldn't hit open threes. Won't be the case again here. Playing two straight on the road against big time teams is a little much for this underdog. Lay a number that's too short. Play on CALIFORNIA

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah fell behind by double digits against Brooklyn on Tuesday. While they were able to come back and win 119-114, they did not cover the 6.5-point spread. That was at home. Tonight the Jazz hit the road, but they are facing a weak opponent. Memphis is not a team you would expect to get out in front of the Jazz like Brooklyn was able to do. Thus, our automatic inclination here was to lay the points. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, it's the first time that's been the case this year. In Wednesday's 119-117 win over Charlotte, they mounted their own comeback, rallying back from down 12 in the third quarter. But Memphis has not done well after allowing more than 115 points their previous game. They are just 1-5 ATS in this situation the last three seasons. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has won four games in a row. They are allowing just 99.5 points/game. Memphis allows 118.8 points/game, which is fifth most in the league right now. This is a sizable mismatch. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on MARSHALL

Since losing 52-17 to Texas in the first game of the season, Louisiana Tech has won eight in a row. They are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games and since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged an amazing 52 points/game. They hit that number on the nose last week with a very impressive win over North Texas. That performance last week was definitely not what we were expecting. The Bulldogs are one of seven teams left without a conference loss. But they are underdogs this week at Marshall and for good reason. Marshall's defense has been excellent over the last five games, giving up just 20.4 points/game. So the Thundering Herd have what it takes to slow this La Tech attack down. The Herd have won four straight themselves and control their own destiny over in the East Division of Conference USA. This is just the third all-time meeting, so Huntington is not a place Louisiana Tech is all too familiar with. Their last visit here was the 2014 Conference USA Title Game, which they lost 26-23. Marshall is 48-18 SU its last 66 home games. Louisiana Tech's ascent is not something that was expected. At least to this height. Marshall is primed to win 8+ games for the 5th time in 6 seasons and they are off a bye. Play on MARSHALL

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The underachieving Browns got back into the win column last week by beating Buffalo 19-16 as a 2.5 point favorite. Despite being just 3-6 on the season, the Browns do have reason for hope. Their upcoming schedule is among the easiest in the entire league. Remaining games for the Browns include: Arizona, Miami and two with 0-9 Cincinnati. But first they've got to beat long-time nemesis Pittsburgh Thursday night. The Steelers have definitely had the Browns number through the years. The last eight meetings have seen the Steelers go 7-0-1. The tie was last year. Pittsburgh comes into this game as the underdog, but has won four in a row. Most of the wins have been close though. Three were decided by seven points or less. The other, against a Miami team that was winless at the time, saw them fall behind 13-0. So the Steelers aren't exactly dominating. Another benefit the Steelers have enjoyed is that six of their nine games have been played at home. That includes the last three. The only road game they've played the last six weeks was against the Chargers, who have the one of the weakest home field advantages in the league. Despite winning that game, the Steelers were outgained. They've been outgained by an average of 146.8 yards in the three road games this season. The Browns have only scored 38 points the past two weeks despite getting into the red zone nine times. That's almost historic inefficiency. We look for the Browns' offense to finally have its breakthrough game Thursday night in front of what should be a rabid Dawg Pound. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on CHICAGO 

Already on a three-game ATS losing streak, it's going to be tough for the Bucks to cover large spreads like this one now that Kris Middleton is injured. Middleton will be out 3-4 weeks after suffering a thigh injury Sunday. This is a good chance to fade Milwaukee as they host the Bulls on TNT. Chicago is coming off a 120-102 win over the Knicks, their second 18+ point win in the last three games. Rookie Coby White had his best game as a pro, ending up with 27 points after making seven three-pointers in the fourth quarter. With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to need someone to pick up the slack. It would be unfair to expect more from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is already averaging 29.7 points, 14.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. This situation is not great for Milwaukee either. They are coming off four straight road games and will play three more away from home following this game. Laying such a big number makes the spot even trickier. Chicago has not been a double digit dog yet this season. They've only been a dog period four times. So the market respects this team a bit more than most realize. They've covered four of their last six games. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on NORTH CAROLINA

Mack Brown's has certainly made North Carolina better. But in order for this season to be considered a success, the Tar Heels need to get to a bowl. To do that, they'll need to win two of their next three games. Next week vs. Mercer is a lock. But they'll also need to win one of two road games, this week at Pitt or the regular season finale at NC State. North Carolina has beaten Pittsburgh six straight times. Yet they are the underdog Thursday night. With the game being at Heinz Field, that makes sense. But even when UNC was struggling the last couple years, they still managed to beat the Panthers. The Tar Heels were a combined 5-18 the last two years with just two ACC wins. Both were against Pitt. Brown brings a better team in this year, one that started its season with upsets over South Carolina and Miami FL. Since then, the Heels are just 2-5. But it's worth pointing out that all five losses were one-score games. Three of those losses were by a total of six points. Pitt won the ACC Coastal last year, but still lost seven games. At 6-3 this year, they're already assured of a bowl. Were they to win out, they'd have a shot at repeating as division champs. But they haven't won a game by more than 10 points all year and half of their wins have been by a field goal or less. Brown definitely wants that bowl bid his first year back in Chapel Hill. With the success North Carolina has had in the past vs. Pitt, we've gotta grab the points in this matchup. UNC is already 3-1 ATS as a dog this year. Honestly, they may be the better team here. A Pitt offense averaging just 20.9 points/game can't really be trusted as a favorite, can it? Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on GREEN BAY

Green Bay seems to be getting a lot of points for Wednesday's game against New Mexico. Though the Phoenix are 0-11 straight up as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, they have covered the spread in 9 of those 11 games. Look for them to make it 10 of 12 tonight. GB has already covered once as a big road underdog this year. It was the season opener at Purdue where they lost 79-57 as 23-point dogs. That's as close as it gets if you bet the Phoenix, but it still counts as a cover! Purdue, who was ranked #23 at the time, is obviously a better team than New Mexico. The fact that the Phoenix shot just 35% against Purdue and still picked up the ATS win probably bodes well for tonight. New Mexico isn't that strong defensively. After losing to Purdue, Green Bay bounced back with a 115-64 win over Wisconsin-Stout, a D-3 school. New Mexico has also played a game against a team from a lesser division (Eastern New Mexico) and then beat CS-Fullerton by 27 on Saturday. While the favorite is off a big win, we see the underdog keeping this game closer than expected. New Mexico probably isn't as good as they've looked on offense so far. "The Pit" is a tough venue to play at, but Green Bay has shown they can hang inside the number on the road as a big dog. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is a 10* on BROWN

It's nice to see Quinnipiac has decided to join the College Basketball season! Now that they're done polling (what the school is known for!), it's time to start playing some basketball games. Up first is a date with Ivy League school Brown. Brown already has two games under its belt, so they've had a chance to work the kinks out. The Bears are 2-0 as they've been favored by similar amounts against Bryant and Canisius. Those were two and seven points wins respectively, so they're ATS record is 0-1-1. This is one where we do see Brown covering. This being their 1st game of the season, Quinnipiac is a bit of a wild card. But we know what we're getting with Brown. They've held the first two opponents to 40.0% shooting. They've won a road game. The player to watch on Brown is Brandon Anderson. He has made 35.7% of his 3-point shots so far and has 55 points in two games. He scored a career-high 32 vs. Canisius. Last season saw Brown win 20 games and a win a postseason game (CBI). Both were firsts for the program, which is on the rise. Lay the points tonight. Play on BROWN

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

Washington State had a terrible 2018-19 season. The Cougars won only 11 games and finished second to last in the Pac 12. But we thought it was absurd they were laying such a short number against Seattle in the season opener. We made the Cougs our Game of the Month and sure enough they won 85-54. Tonight Wazzu hits the road and is an underdog to a West Coast Conference opponent. We feel they deserve to be favored over Santa Clara. This is a revenge game. Last year, the Cougars lost to the Broncos 79-71 as eight-point favorites, a game which was played in Spokane, WA (neutral site). Santa Clara couldn't miss in that game, making 58.5% of its shots including 9 of 20 three-pointers. Similarly strong shooting has the Broncos off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly. But let's see how they do in their first real test. Wazzu was a respectable 7-7 in non-conference games last year and this year's team is going to be much better. Meanwhile, Santa Clara hasn't been very good as a favorite the last couple years, going 7-11 ATS while suffering seven outright losses. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on UTAH

For a second time this year, Utah has won three in a row. They are 7-3 overall, which has them right near the top of the Western Conference. Tonight they go for a season-best four-game win streak when they host Brooklyn. We'll be laying the points. This is the second game of a back to back for the Jazz. Last night they went to Golden State and won 122-108. Winning at Golden State doesn't mean what it used to though, so we don't expect any kind of letdown. The Jazz won by 32 the only other time they played without rest this year. Brooklyn lost by 26 in Phoenix Sunday night. That snapped a two-game win streak. But they are still only 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. Massive edge for Utah defensively in this one. They lead the league allowing just 98.1 points/game. They've yet to allow more than 108 points. Brooklyn is next to last in points allowed per game at 121.7. They are 3-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their last game (Phoenix scored 138). The Jazz are the only team in the West that has not lost a home game. They are 5-0 in Salt Lake City, winning by an average of 11.2 points. They are simply better than Brooklyn right now. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is a 10* on WILLIAM & MARY

William & Mary and Wofford are each 2-0 to start the year. But we value William & Mary's start a little bit more as both of their wins came on the road. Wofford's two wins have both been at home. We'll take the points. William & Mary's season started with a 70-56 win over High Point. Wofford also has a win over High Point, theirs coming by a 28-point margin (89-61). Again though, W&M had to do it on the road. High Point is a pretty terrible team, but W&M winning as a 3.5-point dog at American University last Frday was a little more impressive. What the Tribe have done exceptionally well to this point is play defense. They've held the first two opponents to 34.9% shooting. That defense will be tested here by a Wofford team that's shooting 51.8% overall and 43.1% from three. But the Terriers are allowing the opposition to shoot well from distance as well. Erskine and High Point combined to make nearly 43% of their three-point attempts. Wofford is just 1-5 ATS its last six opportunities as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Let's see what happens when they have to face a "real" team. So far the Terriers have relied on two big second halves. Not sure that can continue. W&M's two big guys should give Wofford trouble. Play on WILLIAM & MARY

AAA

This is an 8* play on AKRON

Akron isn't just the worst team in the country on the field, they are also the worst team in the country at the betting window. The winless Zips have matching 0-9 straight up and against the spread records. Despite this dubious distinction, we will "take the bait" on Tuesday and grab the points with the "ugly" home dog.Eastern Michigan isn't exactly a world-beater itself. The Eagles come into this game at 4-5, needing two more wins to gain bowl eligibility. While they've got to feel good about their chances of winning tonight, them laying so many points on the road is unfamiliar. Over the last 10 seasons, EMU has been a road favorite just four times, all four coming in the last three seasons. Just one of those four times were they asked to lay more than a field. It was last year's regular season finale where bowl eligibility was on the line. They won 28-20 at Kent State, but did not cover as 13-point favorites. It's not like the Eagles have played well lately. They've lost four of five. Ten days ago, they were blown out 43-14 by Buffalo and that was at home. They haven't won a game here in Akron since the 90's. Making a case for Akron is kind of tough. But this is more of a fade on Eastern Michigan anyway. None of the Eagles four wins this year have been by more than seven points. Plus weather will be a factor tonight (snow) as the kickoff time had to be moved up two hours. Play on AKRON

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This is a 10* on ALABAMA

Both of these teams are off losses. For Alabama, that's unexpected. The Crimson Tide were 7-point home favorites in an 81-80 loss to Penn in the first game of the season. Just a bad week all around in Tuscaloosa. FAU fell to Miami by 14 on Friday. That was after a shaky defensive effort in the opener where they gave up 81 points to a Division II school. So look for the Crimson Tide to bounce back offensively after a dreadful 35% shooting night against Penn. Bama has had more time to prepare for this game as well. They've been off for five days. Injuries and waiting on the eligibility of a transfer have realy hampered Nate Oats start here. But the 1st year coach should turn things around, just like he did at Buffalo. Only 2 of FAU's 13 players that saw time against Miami finished in double figures. So while Alabama's depth has taken a hit, FAU really doesn't have much depth to speak of. With poor defense and a 34.4% shooting effort against Miami, there's no reason to believe FAU competes here. Play on ALABAMA

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO

Neither the Grizzlies nor the Spurs have been very good teams against the pointspread this year. Both come into Monday sporting 2-7 ATS records. But the difference is San Antonio has at least been winning some (5-4 straight up) while the Grizzlies have a matching 2-7 SU record. San Antonio did just get hit hard by Boston, giving up 135 points in a 20-point home loss. It was the third loss in the last four games for the Spurs, but the first time they'd been blown out all season. Traditionally, they have not been good off that kind of defeat. But they're facing a Memphis team that has been outscored by almost 28 points/game in its three road losses.  The Grizzlies just lost 138-122 to Dallas and that was at home. While it was the most points they've given up in a game this year, it was not the first time getting blown out. It was the 4th loss by 19 or more points so far and second in a row. The previous night in Orlando they lost 118-86. It's a big number to lay with a Spurs team that hasn't covered often. But Memphis might be the worst team in the league right now. Their last three opponents have averaged 125.7 points. They are averaging just 92.7 points/game themselves on the road. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA

8* play on VIRGINIA

Two years ago, Virginia suffered the ultimate humiliation by becoming the first ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. They more than redeemed themselves last year by winning the National Championship. This year's team is ranked #11 and opened things up with a 48-34 win over Syracuse. As you can tell from that final score, it was even uglier than usual for the Cavaliers. But the good news is they still won by double digits despite shooting only 16% from the three-point range. They also turned it over 16 times. Last year's team set a school record by making an average of 18 three's per game and they also led the entire country by turning it over just 9.0 times per game. So those numbers from the first game are a lock to improve (even though the 3-pt line has been moved back this year). James Madison is no match for Virginia. The Dukes beat Charlotte 79-74 on Wednesday. But they've never beaten Virginia, an in-state rival, in 10 all-time tries. On the road, the Cavaliers held Syracuse to just 23% shooting and 34 points. Now just imagine what they'll do at home where they've never lost an opener under Coach Bennett (10-0). JMU was without one of its best players (Dwight Wilson) in the opener and he's listed as questionable here. Virginia has covered 67% of the time it has been a favorite the L3 years, going 44-22 ATS. Play on VIRGINIA

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay (2-6) has found a variety of ways to lose this year. Last week, it was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle. The Bucs couldn't even get the ball in overtime after the Seahawks missed the potential game-tying FG at the end of regulation.  This week finds the Bucs favored for just the third time all season. They've lost outright in the first two, one to San Francisco (back in Week 1) and then to the Giants in Week 3. Were they to lose for a third time as chalk this year, things could get real ugly for Bruce Arians in Tampa. We don't think they lose though. Despite its 2-6 record, the Bucs have actually outgained their opponents. They are better than what the record shows. This is also their first home game since blowing that big lead to the Giants back in Week 3. At 3-5-1, Arizona has been slightly better than expected. They actually played a really nice game last week in San Francisco with the offense gaining over 7.0 yards/play against the league's top defense. But this is a road game and an early start time to boot. The time has simply come for a TB victory. The Cardinals have three wins, but they've come by just 10 total points. The Bucs have lost four games by a total of 18 points. The home team should move the ball and will be playing some inspired defense. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* on the NY JETS

The state of professional football in New Jersey is downright putrid with the two teams occupying MetLife Stadium owning a combined 3-14 record. The Giants (2-7) have lost five in a row while the Jets (1-7) hit rock bottom last week by becoming the first team to lose to Miami. It's tough to decipher any real advantages in a matchup this bad. What's unique is this is a "neutral site game." But the Giants are on a short week. Things got away from them in the second half Monday vs. Dallas and they ended up losing 38-17. The short week definitely works against the Giants. The Jets are probably in even worse shape right now coming off the loss in Miami. But at least they can claim to have beaten a Dallas team that blew the Giants out twice. Coach Adam Gase seems to be in really "hot water" right about now. He could be done after one year if things continue to go south. The Giants offense has really not improved much with Daniel Jones as the quarterback. They've been held below 300 yards four times during the five-game losing streak. Before losing to Miami, the Jets were set to be favored this week. We see some value (believe it or not) in backing them as a dog in this all-ugly matchup. In the past five seasons, there have been 15 instances in Week 6 or later between two teams with winning percentages of .250 or lower. The underdog is 14-1 straight up and a perfect 15-0 ATS! Play on NY JETS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston started the year 0-6 ATS (while also going 3-3 SU in those games). They've now covered two straight, beating Memphis and Golden State. Tonight they face another weak opponent in Chicago. The Bulls did win their last game, however. They actually won by 20 on the road! But it was the first time Atlanta had to play a back to back this season. The Hawks, by their own admission, seemed ill-prepared for the game. Chicago took full advantage with its largest margin of victory to date. The Rockets figure to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. Some atrocious defense hurt them the first couple weeks of the season, but they just held Memphis and Golden State to an average of 106 points. Chicago's ambitions of making the playoffs this year feel a little foolish on this end. They've been held under 100 points three times already and won't look as good here as they did in Atlanta Wednesday night. Off their first two wins, the Bulls lost by 24 and 13, both times at home. It's a little shocking that the Bulls have been underdogs in only three games so far. They lost all three. We think the market is simply too high on them. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PEPPERDINE

It's never personal when we play on or against a team. It's simply a read of the current situation and marketplace. So the fact we went against Pepperdine on Tuesday should not be construed as any kind long-term negative outlook on the Waves. If you got a chance to read our analysis for the Pepperdine-Cal game, you know that we had almost nothing negative to say about Pepperdine. It was simply an opportunity to take a team from a major conference, getting points against a mid-major. Cal won the game 87-71. As disappointing a result as that was for Pepperdine, they should bounce back here against UC Irvine. The Anteaters picked up a road win in their opener, but barely, as they beat San Diego 76-73. They did not cover as they were 5.5 point favorites. UC Irvine attempted only 11 three pointers in that game. They made just two. That kind of shooting isn't going to cut it on a regular basis, especially when playing on the road. Really, the Anteaters were somewhat fortunate to even win Tuesday. They were down 14 at halftime. Pepperdine allowed Cal to shoot 57.4% while making only 37.1% of its own attempts. That kind of disparity won't happen often. Play on PEPPERDINE

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This is a 9* on NORTH TEXAS

Most of the teams without a conference loss should be familiar to you as they are also unbeaten on the year. There are a few exceptions to this "rule," and the one you probably know the least about is Louisiana Tech out of Conference USA. The Bulldogs are 4-0 against the rest of the conference and coming off a bye this week. Their only loss this year was against Texas, which was the first game of the season. They've since won seven straight games against what we'd have to call one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. Here is who La Tech has beaten this year: Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss and UTEP. Take Southern Miss and FIU out of the equation and that's some of the worst teams in the country. Grambling is a FCS team while the other four opponents have a combined 5-30 SU record. North Texas just clobbered UTEP last week, 56-22, which snapped a 4-game ATS losing streak. The Mean Green were favored to win the West Division in C-USA this year, so this is a huge game for them. They are two back of La Tech in the loss column. The home team has not fared in this rivalry, losing six of the last eight matchups. The underdog has won outright four straight times. North Texas QB Mason Fine threw 7 TD passes last week and he could be the difference in this one. Play on NORTH TEXAS 

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This is an 8* on TROY

Last week saw Georgia Southern pull off a big upset over Applachian State, the second year in a row they beat the Mountaineers. Troy, another team from the Sun Belt, wasn't quite as fortunate as they lost by one point at Coastal Carolina. Having to come back and lay points on the road seems like a trap for a team that is off its biggest win of the season. Georgia Southern has won four in a row, but three of those wins were by exactly three points. Three of their four road games this season have been three-point games. The other was a 55-3 loss to LSU. The only other time the Eagles were favored on the road, they failed to cover (-10 at South Alabama). Troy lost on a 2-point conversion last week. Coastal Carolina scored a touchdown in the final 30 seconds to make it a 35-34 game, then converted the 2-pt play for the win. Troy lost despite 500 yards of offense and trailing for just over three minutes of actual game time.If this scenario sounds familiar, last week we took a team that was coming off a loss as a favorite (South Carolina) against a team that had just pulled an upset the previous week (Vanderbilt). The final score there was 24-7. Troy had won 10 or more games three years running, so at 3-5 this can be classified as a disappointing season. The Trojans may need to win out just to get to a bowl. It's Homecoming. They've beaten Ga Southern two years in a row. They should win here. Play on TROY

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Given where this number opened, there still seems to be a real lack of faith in Baylor. The Bears are unbeaten (8-0), but were ranked only 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. There are six teams with at least one loss ranked ahead of the Bears and two with two losses! We're here to say that we do have faith that Matt Rhule's team can win the Big 12 this year. The schedule has set up nicely so far and looking forward, both Oklahoma and Texas have to come to Waco. There have been some close wins along the way (three by a field goal or less), including last week. But off the previous two close wins, Baylor came back to win the next game by 19 and 18 points. Over the last 40 years, there have been only nine times where a team that was 8-0 or better found itself favored by a field goal or less on the road. Those nine unbeatens have responded by going 7-2 ATS! That's the situation Baylor is in here. TCU is 4-4 with three losses by seven points or less. The last time they were at home, they beat Texas 37-27. But in last week's 34-27 loss at Oklahoma State, they lost two quarterbacks to injury! A third QB on the roster decided to transfer out of the program this week! The expectation is that starter Max Duggan will play Saturday, but he fell to the turf hard last week, injuring his shoulder. He won't be at 100%.  Baylor didn't look that great last Thursday against West Virginia. They won 17-14, which was the fewest points scored in any game all year for them. But getting extra time to prepare for an opponent they know well should help. TCU has beaten Baylor four years in a row, so that's even more motivation for the Bears besides wanting to stay unbeaten. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington is off two gut-wrenching defeats, both at home. They were underdogs against both Oregon and Utah. What's interesting about that is that prior to those two games, the Huskies had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's 2nd year here in Seattle. They led Oregon by two touchdowns in the second half (lost 35-31) and then were up going into the 4th quarter last week against Utah (lost 33-28). Now the Huskies go from home dog to road favorite. It's a bit of a dangerous spot facing a suddenly hot Oregon State team. But this is a game Washington should win big. They are 5-2 ATS in the games they've been favored to win this year. Washington is 8-1 this decade vs. OSU including seven straight wins. Six of those wins have been by double digits. Oregon State's resurgence has largely come at the expense of the bottom of the Pac 12. The Beavers have beaten UCLA, Cal and Arizona, all of those wins coming on the road, ironically enough. Washington may not be a Top 25 team in the eyes of the committee, but they still are to us. They are 3-0 SU and ATS off back to back losses under Petersen, two of the wins coming against Oregon State. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* play on WISCONSIN

Wisconsin's season started with a two-point loss to St. Mary's on Tuesday. They'll look to bounce back against a much lesser opponent on Friday, Tony Romo's alma mater of Eastern Illinois. The Badgers did cover the spread on Tuesday as they were four-point underdogs in a game that went to overtime. The game took place in Sioux Falls, SD. The team's top returning scorer D'Metrick Trice finished with just 10 points on 3 of 7 shooting. There was a six minute stretch in the first half where no one on the team made a field goal. Wisconsin was also badly outrebounded. None of that should happen again tonight in Madison. Nor will the Badgers succumb to a 21-3 run by the opposition. Eastern Illinois lost by 25 on Tuesday and allowed Texas Tech to shoot 55%. Opening its season with road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin all but guaranteed Eastern Illinois would open 0-2. After such a bad performance in the first game, you have to imagine the players have little confidence coming into this game. Wisconsin has covered seven of the last nine times they have been a home favorite of more than 12 points. They should be able to "name their score" here. Play on WISCONSIN

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This is a 10* play on SACRAMENTO

Just as soon as they got Trae Young back from injury, the Hawks lost John Collins to a 25-game suspension. The team looked absolutely putrid in a 20-point home loss to Chicago Wednesday night. So we'll be playing against them tonight. Wednesday was the first time all year Atlanta had to play back to back. Still that's no excuse for losing by 20 at home to the Bulls. Young really struggled, scoring just nine points. The team was 6 of 30 from behind the 3-point arc with Young missing all eight of his tries. Committing a season-high 24 turnovers didn't help either. This is not the first game where Sacramento has been a road favorite. We actually took them -1.5 at New York on Sunday, which was our Game of the Week. They won by 21. While they followed it up with a 4-point loss in Toronto, they covered as eight-point underdogs. So they're 3-0 ATS the L3 games having also beaten Utah, which is a solid win. The Kings are just 5-16 ATS their last 21 visits to Atlanta, but won convincingly here last season (by 31 points). It was their largest margin of victory all year. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the last two seasons versus the Hawks.  Against Toronto, the Kings tied a franchise record with 20 made three-pointers. They are the hotter of these two teams right now. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE

We know Washington State is off a bad year, but it's rather preposterous to see the Cougs laying such a short number at home to a small school like Seattle. Remember two nights ago we had Cal as a home dog against Pepperdine and the Bears won outright. That Cal play is worth mentioning again because the Bears were the only team to finish below Wazzu in last year's Pac 12 standings. Wazzu draws an even weaker opponent for its season opener as Seattle is a WAC school, perhaps one of the weakest overall conferences in the country. The RedHawks were just 6-10 in conference play last year. Seattle has already played a game. It beat Pacific Lutheran, a non-board team, by 34 points. Getting out to a 31-7 lead was huge. But nothing close to that will be happening tonight. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost to the RedHawks last year by nine points. That game was in Seattle though. Wazzu shot very poorly in the game, making less than 30% of its field goal attempts. Despite that loss, the Cougs are still 11-1 ATS their L12 games vs the WAC. Washington State has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who comes over from San Francisco. He led the Dons to 20 wins last season. Lots of new talent was brought in. A new coach is not going to want to lose a game like this. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* on OAKLAND

Either the Chargers or Raiders are likely to end up with 8 wins this year. Can't say that's something we would have expected to write just a couple of weeks ago. But both AFC West teams are off victories heading into Thursday night's matchup. The Chargers, now 4-5, surprised a lot of people by beating Green Bay on Sunday. That's a game where we had the Under. They held Aaron Rodgers to just 11 points. But as impressive as the win was, it's crucial to remember it was the best LA has looked all season. Oakland, who is 4-4, just beat Detroit 31-24. It was the first time all year that the Raiders were favored to win a game, so they've definitely overachieved. Interestingly, the Chargers were favorites in each of their first six games. The Raiders have not beaten the Chargers in awhile. They've lost all four meetings the previous two seasons and gone 0-4 ATS as well. But this is definitely the best they've been since Jon Gruden took over. All four TD's against the Lions were scored by rookies! It's the Raiders time (to beat LA) on Thursday. Before the Chargers beat the Packers, Oakland was set to be a slight favorite in this matchup. The Raiders are a solid 6-1 ATS the last 7 home games and we don't see a Chargers team that started 2-5 magically turning things around with what would be a third straight win. Play on OAKLAND

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Charlotte has certainly surprised some people by winning three in a row. They've covered the spread in four straight games. Only one of those games were they they favorite and how ironic is it that it was against Golden State? Tuesday night was a 122-120 overtime win over Indiana. There was a pretty obvious reason the Hornets were able to beat the Pacers. Free throws. While Charlotte went 28 of 42 from the line, Indiana was only 6 of 7. That kind of massive disparity doesn't come around too often. Without it, the Hornets would have lost Tuesday. The disparity certainly won't repeat itself tonight.Boston is humming along with five straight wins. The last one was in Cleveland, 119-113, a game with a similar spread to this one. The Celtics only loss this year came in the opener at Philadelphia. Since then, they've been playing very good defense, holding teams to 42.7% shooting. Tonight is a homecoming of sorts for Kemba Walker. The Hornets all-time leading scorer is now averaging 26 points/game for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is expected back for Boston after he missed the last three games. It's surprising to see Charlotte winning three in a row. The streak stops here though. The past two seasons saw them go 5-9 SU/ATS when off three or more consecutive wins. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Orlando's struggles continued last night with a 102-94 loss in Oklahoma City. It was yet another game scoring less than 100 points. In fact, the Magic have yet to score 100 points in any game this year. No wonder they have a 2-5 SU record (1-5-1 ATS). It's unlikely they get the issues solved in the second night of a back to back, so fade them again.We faded the Magic last night too. We talked about the lack of scoring as they are last in the league in points scored and field goal percentage. It looked like they might be able to get to 100 last night, but a 15-point fourth quarter ultimately doomed them. They shot just 39% for the game, including 13% on three-point attempts. Dallas has looked far more impressive so far. They scored 131 in a blowout win at Cleveland Sunday. The time off between games is another obvious advantage the Mavs have coming into this one. Point guard Luka Doncic looks like the real deal. Orlando hasn't won here in "Big D" since 2011. It's seven straight losses by an average of 17.7 points/game. If you can't score 100 points, you won't win many games in this league. That's the sad reality for the Magic right now. Unless the Mavericks have some sort of severe defensive lapse, they should win comfortably against a team playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on DALLAS

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This is 10* on OHIO STATE

Ohio State opens the year ranked #18 in the country. They face a Cincinnati team going through a transition with a new coach and lots of new players. Playing in Columbus, the season opener sets up well for the Buckeyes. These schools didn't play for 98 years, but are now opening the season against one another for the second consecutive season. OSU won last year's game in Cincinnati, 64-56 as a 4.5-point dog. That was a signal that the Buckeyes were "for real" and they'd end up making the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati has made the Big Dance 10 years in a row. But there could be some early growing pains this season. Mick Cronin left to go coach at UCLA. Five players transferred and two more graduated, leaving new coach John Brannen to almost have to start over from scratch. Yes, he does have three starters back, but we don't think that's enough to match up with the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State has the Wesson brothers and Kaleb reportedly dropped 30 pounds in the offseason. Having beaten a better Cincinnati team on the road to open last season, it stands to reason the Buckeyes should have an even easier time this year in Columbus. The Bearcats have lost 26 of the last 33 times they've been a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on OHIO STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami and Ohio meet Wednesday in the 96th "Battle of the Bricks." Ohio has won this rivalry game 11 of the past 14 years under coach Frank Solich, including six straight times at home. But last year it was Miami pulling a 30-28 upset as four-point home underdogs. Both teams are 3-1 in conference play. In each case, the teams won their respective MAC openers, lost the next game, then have followed with two wins in a row. Neither played this past Saturday, obviously.Miami has gone 19-7 straight up its last 26 MAC games as coach Chuck Martin is doing a good job here. The last two wins have both been upsets as the Redhawks beat Northern Illinois 27-24 at home than Kent State 23-16 on the road. They've actually been favored only one time all season! Ohio was an underdog its last time out (+2), a 34-21 win at Ball State. Unlike past years, the Bobcats have not been invincible at home here in 2019. They've already lost twice, once to Louisiana and then to the Northern Illinois team that Miami recently defeated.  We expect this to be a close game that could go either way. Ohio's defense has been more than just a little "leaky" at home as they've given up 45, 39 and 38 points the last three times playing here. Is it any wonder that the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS as favorites this season? Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on TULANE

When you are as terrible as Tulane was last season, a coaching change is all but assured. The Green Wave finished 4-27 in 2018-19, a shockingly bad record when you consider they had a former NBA coach in Mike Dunleavy in charge of the program. Ron Hunter likely will never coach in the NBA, but he's a massive upgrade from Dunleavy in the college ranks. Tulane's new coach comes over from Georgia State, who he led to three NCAA Tournament appearances in the last five years, including one memorable 1st round upset.  Hunter did lose last year's leading scorer Caleb Daniels, who left for Villanova. But Hunter brought in four transfers of his own, one of them (Teshaun Hightower) likely to be the team's leading scorer this year. SE Louisiana also had a first year coach, David Keifer, who was previously an assistant here. But Keifer lost the top two scorers from last year's team and they accounted for about 33 points per game. Unlike Hunter and Tulane, Keifer doesn't seem to have an adequate way to replace that lost production. This is a big game for Hunter, who is looking to make a statement in his first game. It's a shockingly low number for a home game. Tulane should win by double digits. Play on TULANE

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This is a 10* play on CAL

Despite winning only eight games last year and being picked to finish last in the Pac 12, California actually has some optimism this year. They've got a new coach and landed a key transfer that could end up leading the team in scoring. Pepperdine is a middle of the road WCC team. It is definitely uncharted territory to see them laying points on the road against a team from a superior conference. Cal's new coach is Mark Fox. He previously spent nine years at Georgia where he had six winning seasons, five postseason appearances (two NCAA Tourney) and won 55% of his games. It's a good land for the Bears. Fox's first big land was grand transfer Kareem South. South comes over from Texas A&M-CC. Despite being an inexperienced team, this season opener is a game Cal can win. For what it's worth, the Bears covered the final five games last year. Play on CAL

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This is an 8* play on OKC

Orlando hasn't been very good against the spread thus far. They are just 1-4-1 ATS. Even more disturbing is the fact they have yet to score 100 points in a game. This is 2019, people! The Magic take the league's worst offense to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. This is a rebuilding year for the Thunder, but so far they've taken advantage of poor public perception to go 4-2 ATS. They have the same number of SU wins (2) as Orlando. This won't be the first time OKC has been favored either. The first is a game they'd like to forget as they lost outright here at home to the Wizards. But the next game saw them bounce back with a 120-92 win over Golden State (were -1.5), also at home. Orlando has lost both of its road games so far. They shot a horrendous 24.5% from three-point range in those games. They are averaging just 93.5 points/game overall. OKC won its last game, beating New Orleans 115-104 as a two-point favorite. That was despite being short-handed. Six players scored 10 or more points. Go ahead and lay this short number. Play on OKC.

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This is a 8* on FIU

Both of these teams have plenty of experience. FIU has four starters back from a team that won 20 games last year. Mississippi State also has four starters back, but one of them won't play here because of a suspension. Looking at the way the line has moved for this opening night matchup, it's pretty clear "sharp" money sides with the underdog. So do we. The player suspended for MSU is Nick Weatherspoon. He will miss the first 10 games of the season. He also missed the final 10 of last season for the same undisclosed violation of team rules. The Bulldogs season did not end well as they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Liberty. The Bulldogs also didn't look very good in an exhibition against vs. South Alabama, winning that game by only three points. FIU isn't getting a ton of respect right now. Maybe that's because they did lose last year's leading scorer, Brian Beard (17.5 PPG). But the Panthers employ a system that will keep them competitive here. That system was brought over by coach Jeremy Ballard, who was previously at VCU. If you know anything about the way VCU plays, then you should now know what to expect with FIU. It's an up-tempo game where they'll force a lot of turnovers. FIU played at the fastest tempo in the country last season. They forced 10.6 steals/game, which was #1 in the country. Play on FIU

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

This is a line move that we don't agree with at all. All the trends support a play on the Cowboys as does all that we've seen on the field this year. Getting Dallas laying less than a touchdown here is a bonafide steal.Road teams are 23-12-1 ATS in division games this season. Furthermore, Dallas has gone 13-2 SU and ATS within its division the last 2+ seasons. This includes 5-0 SU and ATS vs. the Giants. The 'Boys are 7-0 SU/ATS L7 overall vs. the rest of the NFC East.The Giants are not a good home team. Going back to last year, they are just 2-9-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium including 1-7 as an underdog. The Cowboys really took it to the Giants in Week 1, winning 35-17. They come into this rematch well rested as last week was their bye. The Giants have lost four in a row. While only 4-3, Dallas has outscored opponents by 66 points (5th best margin) and they are outgaining opponents by 112.8 yards/game, also one of the top margins. The Cowboys have outgained all but one opponent this year. The Giants have outgained only two. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston had high expectations coming into the season. So it has to feel terribly disappointing to be only 3-3 through six games.  Last night was a humiliating 129-100 loss in Miami where they trailed 46-14 at the end of the first quarter. The Rockets are now 0-6 ATS on the young season.They're not about to go 0-82 ATS though and that's our mindset coming into Monday's game at Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a good team. They're 1-4 with the only win coming in overtime, by a single point, on a buzzer beater.  Russell Westbrook is being given tonight off. But his absence is built into this line. It's a short number, one that we don't mind laying. The Rockets have been favored in every game this season. The Grizzlies have been underdogs in all of their games. Houston's problem lies on the defensive end as they are last in the league in points allowed. Good for them then that they are facing a Memphis team that is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with Memphis. Look for them to continue that mastery. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on BALTIMORE

Baltimore has clearly been the recipient of some sharp action for this Sunday night duel with New England. We almost never want to fade the Patriots unless its a large spread, but this is the rare time to do so. The Ravens are off their bye and have gone 8-3 ATS in this situation under John Harbaugh. They are also rarely a home dog. The last 18 games here in Baltimore, the home team has been the favorite. New England hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row thus far. They've played Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets twice, Buffalo, Washington, the Giants and Cleveland. None of those teams have winning records and four of the games have been against the three worset teams in the league. Substantial turnover margins have really been helping the Patriots so far. Baltimore has zero turnovers in four of its seven games. In a game where points could be at a premium, we want to be on the underdog. Also be cognizant of the Patriots problems in the kicking game. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Two of the dregs of the league play Sunday in the Big Apple as the 1-5 Kings play the 1-5 Knicks. Besides matching records, something else the teams have in common is that they are both were involved in a close game Friday. But the difference is Sacramento won theirs won the NY lost. The Kings first win of the season was against Utah and at home. They won 102-101 on a last second putback. Obviously, after an 0-5 start, they'd take a win anyway they can get it. But even before beating the Jazz, which is an impressive win by the way, there were signs of improvement. The Kings played much better against Charlotte and Denver then they did in the first three games. The Knicks lost on a last second shot Friday, 104-102 to Boston. Their only win came in a game where they had to rally from an 18-point deficit and that was against the Bulls. So New York pretty easily could be 0-6 right now. We understand there may be some hesitation to lay points with Sacramento away from home. But this is a really short number. They also beat the Knicks twice last year. It was easily forgotten because of the 0-5 start, but the Kings were supposed to be fairly competitive this year. The Knicks are still one of the worst teams in the league. No matter the opponent, we're glad to bet that they'll lose on any given night. A loss is all we need here. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* on DENVER

The 2-5 Browns have not lived up to expectations this season and quite frankly neither have the 2-6 Broncos. The loser of this game is going to be in real trouble, especially if it's Denver. Cleveland at least has an easy schedule to look forward to, although at 2-6 the chances of making the playoffs would be quite small. The line for this game has moved considerably. That's because Joe Flacco is injured and Brandon Allen will start in his place for the Broncos. The offense wasn't scoring a ton with Flacco in there though. We actually don't believe Denver's offense is in substantially worse shape heading into this game, making them a good value play on the Week 9 card. The public, which was in love with the Browns at the start of the season, can't help itself when it sees a backup quarterback. They want to take the other side. But remember when Carolina started Kyle Allen for the first time? They were underdogs at Arizona, a ridiculous line in hindsight and not just because the Panthers won that game 38-20. First time starting QB's have torn it up this year, going a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Look for Allen to make it nine straight covers. It's not like Cleveland has been very impressive. They did win in Baltimore, but their only other win was against a Jets team down to its third string QB. The Browns are -48 in point differential. Denver is the team whose record probably should be a lot better. They've lost three games on last second field goals, including last week. The Broncos defense is giving up only 18.9 points/game and 304.5 yards/game, both of which are top 10 marks in the league. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH

It's a short week for the 3-4 Steelers, who had to come from behind to beat the winless Dolphins on Monday Night Football. They host the 5-2 Colts, who have yet to play a game that wasn't decided by seven points or less. We think the Steelers are set to pull off a "surprise" win at home.  Pittsburgh didn't cover Monday's game, but did end up winning comfortably. After spotting Miami an early 14-0 lead, the Steelers scored the game's final 27 points. They ended up outgaining the Dolphins 394-230. It was Mason Rudolph's first game back after sustaining a concussion against Baltimore. He got better as the game wen along. We actually played against the Steelers last week. But that was as a big favorite. They are 8-2 ATS the last ten times as an underdog. It's a short line this week and who knows where it'll end up by kickoff. But the bottom line is that Pittsburgh is a much better value this week than they were vs. Miami. Indianapolis is 5-2, but has been outgained this year and has a weak scoring differential. Last week was the third time they won a game by three points or less. They should be commended for how they've done in the wake of Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, but this is far from a dominant team. Pittsburgh's offensive line could be key in this game. They've allowed the fewest sacks in the league and could push around a Colts run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina is 3-5 and off a surprising loss while Vanderbilt is 2-5 and off a surprising win. We believe last week's results set up a nice play on the favorite. Despite losing 41-21 to Tennessee last week, South Carolina actually led at halftime. That makes it three times this year that they've lost a game in which they led in the second half. They are better than their record. Vanderbilt has had all sorts of trouble covering the spread this year. They are 1-6 ATS and that one cover was two weeks ago, a stunning 21-14 upset of Missouri as three touchdown underdogs. The Commodores have only been favored two times, so it's mostly been them getting blown out. Despite being off a bye, QB Mo Hasan still has not been cleared to return from a concussion. Monitor his status. Three weeks ago, South Carolina stunned all of College Football by upsetting Georgia. They haven't won since! A loss to Florida wasn't that big of a deal but getting beat last week by Tennessee was certainly disappointing. The Gamecocks were actually four-point road favorites in the 41-21 loss. Because of what happened last week, look for South Carolina to come out very motivated Saturday night. They will be playing without RB Dowdle, but should still move the ball just fine against a Vandy defense that's giving up an average of 33.6 points per game. Stopping a Vandy offense that averages an SEC low 18.4 points/game shouldn't be a problem either. Vandy lost at home to UNLV for crying out loud. South Carolina is 23-4 all-time vs. Vanderbilt and has won 10 straight by an average of 11 points/game. Last year was a 23-point game in Columbia. Nothing changes this year. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS

SMU (8-0) heads to Memphis (7-1) this week looking to stay undefeated. But they are underdogs to a team they haven't beaten in five years. Furthermore, the Mustangs have lost those five games by an average of 30 points/game. SMU is undoubtedly improved this year. But they've won a lot of games they easily could have lost. Wins over Arkansas State and TCU were decided by 7 and 3 points respectively. They needed overtime to beat a 2-win Tulsa team. Last week saw them get outgained by 125 yards in a 34-31 win at undermanned Houston. Memphis is also ranked and we feel they are pretty clearly the better team. While the Tigers did lose at Temple a few weeks ago and barely survived Tulsa last week, they've posted five double digit victories so far and also beat an SEC team (Ole Miss). We are calling for an end to SMU's unbeaten season as they should lose this game by double digits. Memphis is simply better, which is why they are the favorite. Well, that and they are at home. The Tigers have won 17 of the last 19 home games. A big key is that they allow just 18.5 points/game here at the Liberty Bowl. This is the end of the line for SMU, at least when it comes to their hopes of playing in the Cotton Bowl. We're seeing unbeaten teams drop like flies the past few weeks and this is going to be a rabid crowd they're in front of as this is a primetime, national TV game. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in November the last two years. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is an 8* play on NEBRASKA

So much for that Nebraska improvement this year. Well, to be fair, the Cornhuskers are probably going to win more games in 2019 than they did in 2018. They've already equaled last season's win total of 4. But anyone thinking the Big 10 West would run through Lincoln has to be severely disappointed as the 'Huskers won't be winning the division this year. But Purdue won't either. The Boilermakers have been hit hard by injuries, specifically QB Elijah Sanders and WR Rondale Moore, which is most of their offense. Moore is questionable for Saturday after missing the last four games. Sindelar probably isn't coming back at this point. Backup Jack Plummer was a disaster last week vs. Illinois, going 7 of 19 for only 69 yards. He was benched twice, both times after turnovers that led to Illini scores. There was some thought to benching Plummer permanently, but coach Jeff Brohm changed his mind. So there's no clear direction in West Lafayette. Meanwhile, Nebraska is going to get back their starting QB back. Adrian Martinez should be the difference. Before the year, no one would have thought Nebraska would lose this game. They won't. Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE

Syracuse has lost three straight. Talk about a dropoff. The Orange were 10-3 last year, their best season in years. Losing a four-year starting QB meant they were probably going to struggle this year. But it's not necessarily been Tommy DeVito's fault that the team is 3-5. The offensive line has failed to protect him, giving up the most sacks in the country. The Cuse don't have a win over a Power 5 team yet. But that should change this week hosting Boston College. B.C. lost 59-7 at Clemson last week. That was their 4th loss in 6 games. While there have been seven upsets in the last nine meetings here and the visitor has won the last three, we don't see it happening again here. Boston College is giving up a lot more points than usual, including 38.7 points/game on the road. The defense is last in the ACC in third downs and at stopping the pass. The offense is totally one-dimensional with a backup QB. Syracuse remains a good home team, so they should cover this small number. They are also 8-3 ATS coming off a game where they scored 20 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio has the odd juxtaposition of having won every game straight up, but having lost all of them against the spread. They are 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS, which isn't really something you see all that often, whether at the start of the year or at any point, really. So this is obviously the first time they've been an underdog this season and it comes against a Clippers team playing in the second game of a back to back. Kawhi Leonard was given last night off and the Clippers faded badly down the stretch, losing to the Jazz 110-96. Paul George has yet to play at all this season. Like the Spurs, the Clippers have also failed to cover three in a row. The team isn't going to continue shooting almost 40% from three-point land. The Spurs come into their first road game fully healthy and will be highly motivated to beat former teammate Leonard. In their last game, the Spurs caught Portland in the second game of a back to back and led that one by as much as 19 points. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

We'd be surprised if Arizona (3-4-1) won this game. However, it's a lot of points to be getting at home. The 49ers may be unbeaten (7-0), but there's been only one game this year where they were favored by more than six points. It was against Washington (-10) and they won 9-0. This is a division road game and a short week. As impressive as the Niners looked in Sunday's 51-13 beatdown of the Panthers, we disagree with the early line move. The Cardinals had won three in a row prior to facing New Orleans last week. While the Saints ended up beating them 31-9, it was actually a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. The 49ers have not beaten the Cardinals since 2014. They're on an eight-game losing streak in this NFC West rivalry. Only two of the last 11 meetings have been decided by greater than 10 points. Last week was San Francisco's highest scoring game of the season while it was Arizona's lowest scoring game of the season. Neither performance is really representative of what you're likely to see this week. The 49ers are 15-32-4 ATS their L51 games following a win by two touchdowns. Arizona is 8-2 ATS after giving up 30 or more points the previous game. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Baylor is 7-0 and ranked #12 in the country heading into Thursday night's clash with 3-4 West Virginia. Normally, this might be a spot you'd want to fade the undefeated team, but Baylor is well rested and out for revenge. They've lost the last three times they've played the Mountaineers, but obviously circumstances were a lot different. It was WVU ranked each of those three years while Baylor has been rebuilding under Matt Rhule. That rebuild is now over as the Bears are the only Big 12 team without a conference loss. West Virginia is now the one rebuilding under a first year coach and several freshman are playing in key positions. While there have been a fair number of close calls for Baylor, they sure impressed us when they went into Stillwater two weeks ago and beat Oklahoma State 45-27. Aside from an upset over NC State, West Virginia has not impressed anybody. They've lost three straight - all by double digits - and the last two weeks have seen the offense do next to nothing. They scored 14 points against both Iowa State and Oklahoma while the defense gave up 90. QB Kendall is averaging just 10 yards per completion and has 7 interceptions. The running game is really bad, averaging only 88 yards/game, which is sixth worst in the entire country. The Baylor offense ranks 12th in the country, averaging 38.9 points/game. The defense allows just 19.1 points/game. We are surprised to see WVU is just 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons (1-4 in 2019). Expect a blowout. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

While this seems like a bit of a "square" play, fact is the Kings aren't a very good team right now. They've opened with three straight losses and all of them have been by double digits. Getting blown out by Phoenix to start the season was a troubling sign. But even worse than that 29-point defeat was losing Marvin Bagley III, who is one of their top players. Bagley is expected to be out for at least a month. Something else that seems "out" in Sacramento is defense. They have let every opponent shoot 50% or better. Saturday night, they were buried in Utah, 113-81. Now they must face Denver, who is 2-0 and doing an excellent job defensively. Being 2-0 while barely shooting 40% overall is actually a good sign for a Nuggets team we know can score. Our guess is they find the offensive touch tonight. Another of Sacramento's key players, De'Aaron Fox is battling a hip injury as well. We just can't see this being a close game as the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Dolphins were so bad at the start of the season that the idea of backing them in any situation just sounded gross. But we took them a couple of weeks ago, as a home dog vs. Washington, and they covered the spread. They actually almost won the game. A late touchdown pulled them within a point. Coach Brian Flores, seeing an opportunity to nab his first win, decided to go for the 2-pt conversion and the win. That failed, but we still respect the aggressiveness. Another Flores decision we concur with is starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Since Fitzpatrick (permanently?) replaced Josh Rosen, the Miami offense has looked much better. Last week, the Dolphins gained a solid 5.8 yards per play against a Bills defense that had previously shut down Tom Brady. That Bills defense came in third in the league in yards per play allowed. The Miami defense has also gotten better in recent weeks. They held Buffalo to only nine points in three quarters. Two of the three touchdowns allowed in that game were not the fault of the defense as one came after a turnover inside their own 20-yard line another was a kick return. A 2-4 Steelers team should not be laying this many points with a backup quarterback coming off a concussion. Mason Rudolph is the first QB since 1995 to be laying two touchdowns with four or less career starts under his belt. Double digits favorites with a win percentage of .333 or worse are just 2-7 ATS all-time. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Both sides are coming off surprising results here. Cleveland won its home opener as a 5-point dog, beating undermanned Indiana 110-99. While that was going on, Milwaukee blew a 21-point lead at home to Miami and lost in overtime. Let's look for order to be restored on Monday. The Cavs are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They scored only 85 points against Orlando in the first game, which was on the road. Indiana did not have leading scorer Victor Oladipo for the second game. The Bucks are the obvious choice to finish first in the East. They are going to be too much for Cleveland, provided they stop fouling and can make their usual number of threes. Houston and Miami were able to go to the free throw line a combined 75 times against Milwaukee. Cleveland is averaging just 22 foul shots per game and when they get there, they really aren't making them (65%). Milwaukee attempts over 50 three pointers per game and if they are making 15-20, the Cavs lack the firepower to keep up. Three different times last season, the Bucks beat the Cavs by double digits. The two games here at home were decided by a combined 38 points. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on KC

Kansas City won’t have Patrick Mahomes this week. However, they’ve had extra time to get Matt Moore ready as they played the Thursday game last week. Moore certainly appeared competent enough in that Thursday night win over Denver. Despite missing Mahomes for a large portion of the game, the Chiefs still won 30-6. They are 5-1 ATS the last six times as an underdog, a role they are now in for the first time this season. Green Bay is 6-1 but hasn’t been dominant. They’ve actually outgained only two of their opponents. The Chiefs defense allowed just 205 total yards last week, so don’t be surprised if they pick up the slack in Mahomes absence. Andy Reid is 15-8 ATS in regular season games when he’s had at least 10 days to prepare. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is an 8* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee is 3-4, but would be 2-5 had Melvin Gordon not fumbled at the goal line last week. They host a Tampa Bay team that’s 2-4 and off a bye. The Bucs certainly could have won over in London two weeks ago, but seven turnovers vs. Carolina guaranteed they didn’t. This isn’t the best spot for Tampa Bay. Not only are they 0-7 the last seven games as a road underdog of three points or less, they’re also 1-8 ATS the last nine October games. The NFC may be the stronger conference, but the Titans are 7-2 ATS the last nine non-conference games. Ryan Tannehill is now the starting QB at Tennessee and with him under center, the offense had its most yards in a game last week (403). Now they face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Titans defense is 4th in the league in scoring. Jameis Winston still turns it over too much and he’s been sacked 13 times the last two games. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

You get the feeling that both the Chargers and Bears are heading in the wrong direction. Both teams made the playoffs a year ago. The Chargers are now 2-5 while the Bears are 3-3. The Chargers have lost three straight (all by seven points or fewer) while the Bears have lost two straight. Something will have to give this week as LA is on a 13-5 ATS run on the road and Chicago is on a 13-6 ATS run at home. Bears QB Trubisky is under fire but is 9-3 ATS vs. teams that have a losing record. He’s facing a bad pass defense this week. The Chargers have a ton of injuries at key positions and the return of running back Melvin Gordon has done nothing. Gordon is averaging just 2.3 yards per rush. The Bears still have a strong defense even though it didn’t look good last week against New Orleans. Play on CHICAGOAAA

This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE

The Jets were just humiliated Monday night by the Patriots. They aren’t likely to play that poorly again, but a short week isn’t likely to cure all that ills them. Jacksonville is 3-4 and has a chance to get to .500 with a win here. They beat Cincinnati 27-17 last week. Gardner Minshew II is doing a pretty good job at quarterback. He’s 3-0 ATS against losing teams. Jets QB Darnold is 5-10-1 ATS as a starter. Jets coach Adam Gase is 4-13 ATS in his career (includes Miami obviously) when getting five or more points and has won just one of the games straight up. The Jaguars defense is banged up, but fortunately the Jets offense isn’t good. There has been only one game where the Jets scored more than 16 points. The line has given up the second most sacks. Too short of a number. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON STATE

Did you know that Washington State has covered nine times in a row against Oregon? Or that they've beaten the Ducks on the field each of the last four years? Most people probably don't know the answer to both of those questions is "yes" and will happily lay the points here. Not us. Now this play is not being made solely out of anger over our loss with last week's "Game of the Year" play. But what we witnessed in that Oregon-Washington game does obviously have some bearing. The Ducks ran 13 more plays in that game, yet gained only 20 more total yards. At one point, Washington (the underdog) led by 14 points. Oregon was in the lead for only one-quarter of actual game time. They led 7-0 for about nine minutes in the first quarter and then the final 5:10 after the go-ahead score. The defense was exposed a little bit in giving up 6.8 yards per play to Washington. Say what you will about Washington State, but we know the Cougs can score. They are 4th nationally in total offense. Getting points is a luxury they've gotten to have only other time this year. While that game (at Utah) didn't go well, the amount of points they were getting in that game was far less than what they are getting here. Oregon is just 4-12 the last 16 times they've been off an ATS win. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is an 8* play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Central Michigan is now 5-3 after winning its last three games. Two of their three losses have come against Power 5 teams and one of them was by just five at Miami. This Saturday, the Chippewas are getting points from a Buffalo team that hasn't exactly been impressive. The Bulls are 3-4, but two of the wins were against Robert Morris and winless Akron. The other was a real shocker vs. Temple as they were 14-point underdogs heading into that contest. But that game saw them catching Temple off its own big upset the week prior against Maryland. Bottom line is we feel CMU is the better team here. Buffalo has has lots of trouble scoring this year. The Temple win marked the only time in 2019 that the Bulls scored more than 21 points against a FBS team. They failed to gain even 250 yards last week vs. Akron, a game where they were gifted four turnovers. They've yet to cover off a straight up win this year. Central Michigan had almost 600 yards of offense in its 38-20 win over Bowling Green last Saturday. They are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year. This is a major revenge game for the Chippewas too as they haven't forgotten losing to UB 34-24 at home last year. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN

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This is an 8* play on AKRON 

If you think Akron is the worst team in the country, we can't blame you. The Zips aren't just 0-7 straight up. They are also 0-7 against the spread! Only two other teams (Rice, New Mexico State) don't have a win of the straight up variety. Every team besides the Zips have covered at least once. They've even lost to a UMass team that many would consider the worst team in the country. But while most have given up on Akron, we'll back them this week at Northern Illinois. Obviously, you won't be shocked to learn they are getting a ton of points here. Northern Illinois is not the same juggernaut they once were though. They are 2-5 with one win coming by three points and the other against a FCS team. Last week, as two-point favorites, the Huskies lost at Miami. Consider that NIU doesn't even average enough points/game to cover this spread. They are averaging just 21.4 points/game for the year. Even though the offense was shutout, Akron's defense played pretty well last week. They held Buffalo under 250 yards. They lost 21-0 but that would be a cover with this pointspread. Only two of the Zips losses have been by a larger number than this pointspread. You know they won't go the full season without covering a game. Last year's game was close. Akron was an extra point away from tying, but had that blocked and returned for two points the other way. Northern Illinois would then intercept a pass and return that for a TD, making it a misleading 36-26 final. Play on AKRON

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This is a 10* on NORTHWESTERN

At 5-2 and 1-5 respectively, it would seem that Iowa and Northwestern are "worlds apart" this season. However, this is still a conference rivalry. Neither record should be surprising as Iowa has won the five times it has been favored and lost the two times it has been an underdog. Northwestern has only been favored in one game this year (UNLV) and that's their only win (30-14). The Wildcats are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State. The two road games (Wisconsin, Nebraska) were actually the tighter games, but let's not go disregarding Pat Fitzgerald's record as a home underdog just yet, okay? Northwestern has beaten Iowa three years in a row including a 14-10 win last year in Iowa City that clinched the Big 10 West. The Wildcats were 10-point road underdogs in that game, now they're getting a near identical number in Evanston. Iowa has not scored more than 26 points in any of its last four conference games. So you have to wonder if they are built to cover double digits on the road. The only other time the Hawkeyes were a road favorite this year (at Iowa State), they did not cover. They've actually only covered two games all year and those were against Rutgers and Middle Tennessee. The memory of Northwestern getting killed by Ohio State last Friday is what set this line. The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Play on NORTHWESTERN

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This is a 10* on COLORADO

USC is coming off a 41-14 win over Arizona where they were 10.5-point home favorites. But let's not forget that this team is still only 4-3 and has used three different quarterbacks in 2019. All three losses have taken place out on the road and this Friday finds them in Boulder taking on Colorado. Quarterback isn't the only position where USC is dealing with injuries either. Three running backs are injured. The top two definitely won't play in this game. As impressive as the Trojans looked last week, it was just their second win of the season by more than eight points. They were also a little lucky to beat Utah (also on a Friday) early in the year and have lost as road favorites before (at BYU).  We will concede the point that Colorado hasn't played well recently. The Buffaloes have lost three in a row and four of their last five games. The last two games were both blowout losses, but those losses were at Oregon and Washington State, which are two tough places to play. Often, it can be something as simple as homefield advantage that can sway things in a positive direction. Colorado has already pulled one upset this year in Boulder, beating Nebraska. Their two losses (at home) were both one score games. Bet on the Buffaloes being motivated as they've never been able to beat USC in 13 all-time tries, including eight as Pac 12 rivals. It's not like they needed any added motivation already being on a 3-game losing streak. USC is just 1-4 ATS the L5 times they've been off an ATS win and they are 1-6 ATS their last seven Friday games. This is all about value as Southern Cal is favored by too many points. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS

This was supposed to be a spotlight game for the Pelicans #1 draft choice Zion Williamson, but he got hurt in the preseason so ESPN is going to have to find something else to talk about. In the first game without Williamson, the Pelicans took Toronto to overtime Wednesday. They ended up not covering (lost 130-122) as they were 7.5-point dogs, a brutal result for anyone who may have taken the points. As tough a loss as it was for the Pelicans and their backers, we're looking for them to take their frustrations out on Dallas in the home opener Friday. That first game showed the Pelicans still must be taken seriously even without their prized rookie. There were just too many turnovers, especially late in the second half and in overtime. Dallas got to play a cupcake in its season opener, Washington, but didn't cover as nine-point favorites. They won 108-100. So we're looking at both teams coming off 1-pt ATS losses. The game is in New Orleans where the Mavericks lost twice last year. The Pelicans got 57 points from their bench against Toronto, showing they are more than just Williamson. It being a short number, let's lay it! Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout Thursday night when the 5-2 Vikings host the 1-6 Redskins. Washington has been very poor this year in all facets and was just shut out Sunday in the rain by the 49ers. It was a 9-0 loss. The Skins had won their first game for interim coach Bill Callahan, beating Miami 17-16. Then they covered at home vs. the 49ers. So there is some limited progress being made, at least on the defensive end. Three of the past four games have seen the Redskins allow 24 points or less. The only one they didn't was against New England. Minnesota has been impressive on offense its last two games, but they haven't always been great and Kirk Cousins still shouldn't be trusted. Something to keep mind ... Since 2009, Minnesota has been -14 or more just one time. It was last year vs. Buffalo and they lost the game straight up. None of their wins this year have been by more than 20 points. Very hard to win in this league by this amount. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 times the teams have met. Play on WASHINGTON 

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This is an 8* on Philly

Milwaukee comes into the year as the favorite to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference. As for the debate over “who’s #2?” it probably comes down to one of these teams.The 76ers host the Celtics to open the year and the winner will have made an early season statement in the Atlantic Division. We like the 76ers at home as they have more minutes returning from last season. Plus they nabbed Al Horford away from the Celtics. Horford joins Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the stars in Philly. Embiid was not healthy in the playoffs and this is obviously a much better team when he is healthy. Remember that Philly took eventual champion Toronto to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston also lost in the semis, but there’s a lot of change here with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving, who was a failed experiment. Boston has covered the last five head to head meetings, but it’s time for that to change Wednesday as the Sixers should easily cover this short number at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 8* play on DALLAS

Huge game in the NFC East this week as the winner will be in first place with a key head to head win. Dallas has lost three in a row, all as favorites. You’d have to go back to 1974 to find the last time they lost four in a row as favorites. While things haven’t been going well of late, they have beaten Philly three straight times. The Eagles certainly didn’t look good last week in an 18-point loss at Minnesota. Their secondary was shredded and remains a huge question mark. So Dak Prescott should have a big game tonight, especially with the Cowboys offensive line now healthy (Tyron Smith back). The Cowboys are 12-2 SU/ATS their L14 division games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* play on GREEN BAY

Green Bay needed some serious help from the refs to get by Detroit on Monday Night Football. The Lions still covered, which is all we needed. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals it was Detroit that may actually have been a bit lucky to leave with the cash. Sure, the officiating got all the headlines. But the Packers were +148 in total yardage. They turned it over three times and still won. Winning a game where you're -3 in the turnover department is not an easy thing to do. Take away those miscuses and there's probably no discussion of the referees at all. On a short week, the Packers turn around and are set to host the Raiders. Oakland is off a bye. The last two games have both been upset victories for the Silver and Black, first over Indianapolis, then over Chicago in London. We can't see a third straight upset though. They've lost and failed to cover the only other two times in the last three years they've been off two straight wins. They're also still just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS the last 18 road games. Gruden has them improving, but the Raiders still aren't ready to go on the road and beat Aaron Rodgers. They haven't beaten the Packers since 1987! Green Bay is 2-0 ATS after its last two times playing on MNF, so no need to worry about the short week. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is an 8* play on the COLTS

The Colts are coming off a bye and not getting enough respect here against the Texans. Both teams are 4-2. Before the bye, Indianapolis went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, holding them to only 13 points. We think they are certainly capable of doing the same to Deshaun Watson and Houston. The Texans don’t always do the best job at protecting Watson, who has been sacked 18 times in six games. The Colts defense typically does a tremendous job at pressuring the quarterback. In the three meetings last year, one of them a playoff win, the Colts sacked Watson a total of 15 times. Making matters worse for Houston, they lost their right tackle to a MCL injury last week. When the Colts offense is on the field, look for QB Brissett to have a big day. He had 10 TD passes in the first four games, throwing for at least two. The Texans defense is suspect through the air, allowing the second most completions in the league. Receiver TY Hilton has typically had big games against the Texans in his career. The Colts have won 13 of their last 19 games overall. They are at home and the bye week is a big advantage here. Play on INDIANAPOLIS

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This is an 8* play on RICE

Let's get this out right away. UTSA is 0-14 ATS its L14 home games where the total falls into the range of 42.5 to 49 points. Maybe that trend doesn't sound so meaningful to you, but what should be meaningful to everyone is the fact that 0-6 Rice is giving points on the road. That, right there, should be a signal as to how bad this UTSA team is. The Roadrunners are 2-4, but their two wins were against UTEP and Incarnate Word. The way we see it, there are only three FBS that UTSA would be favored against regardless of locale ... UTEP, Akron and UMass. They already faced UTEP and won't see the other two on the schedule. So don't expect UTSA to win another game. Rice has not won many games the last few years, but even they've beaten UTEP twice since 2016 and did so by margins much greater than what UTSA pulled off two weeks ago. While winless in 2019, Rice has played two good teams - Army and Baylor - tough. They probably should have beaten Army (lost 14-7 on a late TD). Last week at UAB was a one-point game at halftime before the Blazers scored back to back touchdowns, the second coming off a turnover. Three of Rice's six losses have been by eight points or less. With the season now half over, the Owls have to figure this is their best shot at winning (they will play at UTEP in the final regular season game). Having lost four straight times to UTSA, the motivation is going to be really high on the Rice sideline. Can't say the same for UTSA. Play on RICE

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This is an 8* play on KENTUCKY

Georgia is off one of the most shocking losses of the year (to South Carolina) and dropped to #10 in the rankings as a result. The Bulldogs were 20.5 point favorites and outgained the Gamecocks 468-297. But they still lost, primarily due to four turnovers (one was a pick-six) and finally a missed FG by the uber-reliable kicker Rodrigo Blankenship in double overtime. After a loss like, the expectation will be for Georgia to come out with a vengeance. But be wary of laying this big number against a dangerous Kentucky team. While the Wildcats aren't quite the same caliber as they were a year ago (when they won 10 games), they'll relish being big underdogs in this spot. They beat Arkansas last week, despite having a backup quarterback. In Lexington, they are hoping that starter Sawyer Smith is back this week. But if he isn't, backup Lynn Bowden has proven himself serviceable. Remember South Carolina beat Georgia last week despite being down to its THIRD string QB. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS off their previous four victories. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS its last five home games. The Bulldogs have covered six in a row in this SEC East rivalry, but their confidence is shaky right now as is the offense. Look for UK to stay within the number. Play on KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

The biggest game of the season in the Pac 12 North is set to go down this Saturday in Seattle and it just so happens to be our biggest play of the entire College Football regular season. Washington hosts Oregon in a battle of top 25 teams. Washington just found its way back into the polls after 51-27 win over Arizona last week. The Huskies had been upset the previous week, on the road, as 17-point favorites by Stanford. It was their second time losing outright as a double digit favorite as Cal also got them back in Week 2. Oregon comes in flying high off a 45-3 beatdown over Colorado last Friday night. Since that game was on national television, the perception of this Ducks team is probably the highest its been all year. Oregon has lost just one time, the season opener vs. Auburn, and that was a game they led for 59 minutes. Since then, they've allowed 25 points in five games, beating both Stanford and Cal along the way. But this will clearly be the Ducks toughest test since the Auburn game and probably the rest of the season. Oregon had seized control of this rivalry for a long time, but then it was Washington winning convincingly in both 2016 and 2017 by a combined 84 points. Last year's game went to overtime with Oregon winning 30-27 as three-point underdogs - in Eugene. So its a revenge game for Washington, not to mention also a must-win seeing as a third conference loss would all but kill their chances of winning this division. The game taking place in Seattle is very meaningful. Washington is 13-2 its previous 15 Pac 12 home games. Oregon is 4-11 its last 15 Pac 12 road games. The Huskies can also play some defense as the 27 points given up last week, in a 24-point victory, ironically were a season-high. Led by QB Jacob Eason, the offense also happened to score a season-high in points. This is going to be a much tougher game than what Oregon has been experiencing over the last month and it will be interesting to see how they react, especially on the road. It has been a long time since Washington was an underdog at home. The year was 2015, just Chris Petersen's second as head coach here. So this opportunity doesn't arise very often. We love the value here on a team that hasn't been beaten by more than one possession in three years. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on UNLV

UNLV shocked a lot of people when they beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. It wasn't just that the Rebels won; they did so by 24 as a 16-point underdog. Something to keep in mind is that this was a 1-win team that went across the country and beat an SEC team. UNLV's only prior win was against Southern Utah. The four losses that followed had many questioning the future of coach Tony Sanchez. In none of those four losses did the Rebels score more than 17 points. Two unheralded players led the offensive resurgence. QB Oblad, only starting because of an injury to Armani Rogers, had an efficient game as he threw for 10.8 yards per attempt. RB Chad Maygar went for a career-best 116 yards. While this UNLV team obviously still has a way to go, this week's opponent appears to be on a downward trajectory after winning 22 games the last two years. Fresno State lost 43-24 against Air Force last week, which dropped them to 2-3 on the year. Now the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three losses. But they were only a three-point dog last week. Their two wins have been by 13 and 14 points, so oddsmakers are asking FSU to do something this week that they have not been able to do all season and that's win a game by more than two touchdowns. The Bulldogs defense got gashed on the ground last week by Air Force as it clearly wore down late. This is just a lot of points to lay for a team that hasn't looked all that good this season. UNLV is 10-5 ATS its past 15 road games. Play on UNLV

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This is a 9* play on the YANKEES (RUN LINE)

It's do or die for the Yankees Friday night as they now face a 3-1 series deficit. After winning Game 1 by a score of 7-0, it's been all downhill. But they do get one more home game. With everyone pretty much writing their chances off at this point, we think it's a good time to "double down" and take them on the run line as they should at least keep Game 5 close, if not win it. James Paxton is starting tonight. He had won 10 straight decisions before getting a quick hook in Game 2. The final score of that game was 3-2, so you can see why the run line could be a good idea tonight. Beating Justin Verlander is not easy, but the Rays did it at home in Game 4 of the ALDS. We think the Yankees can do the same here as they are in the situation the Rays were, that being facing elimination in a home game. The Yankees are 5-2 this season after losing their last three games. Getting the Yankees this offense with a +1.5 at home isn't something that happens very often. It's a shockingly low price too. Paxton has been a "stopper" this year with a 6-0 TSR the last six times he's started off a Yankees loss. The team is also 6-0 in his last six starts at home. Play the YANKEES on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

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This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE

Syracuse seems to have taken a bit of a step back this year. The Orange are 3-3, so unless they win out, they're going to end up with a worse record than last season. A horrible showing against Maryland will probably haunt them the rest of the season, but there was no shame in losing to either Clemson or at North Carolina State. We actually faded the Orange in last Thursday's trip to Raleigh. They only lost 16-10 though despite allowing eight sacks and rushing 37 times for only 41 yards. The NC State defense is pretty special, which is something we're not sure we can say about Pitt's. The Panthers have allowed at least 30 points in half their games this year. They did hold Penn State in check, but this is a team that's had to hit the road only one other time and that was two weeks ago when they beat Duke by a field goal. Pitt has won three in a row, but those three wins have been by seven total points. Against Duke, they blew a 23-point lead and needed a last minute touchdown for the 33-30 win. The Blue Devils certainly helped by turning the ball over six times. Remember that Syracuse started the year ranked in the top 25. QB DeVito has 9 TDs vs. 1 INT the L3 games, so he's played well despite being under constant pressure. The Orange lost this game last year, in overtime, 44-37 as a three-point road favorite. Time for them to turn the tide.  Play on SYRACUSE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Through four weeks, the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos 0-4. But the last two weeks have seen a sudden change with Kansas City losing twice and Denver winning both of its games. So it's not a shock to us to see the line "tighten" as we get closer to kickoff. We very much give the Broncos a shot of winning here despite the fact you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they beat the Chiefs. It's a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs, but before that Denver had actually beaten this division rival seven straight times. Kansas City has definitely been better in recent years but Patrick Mahomes is not 100% presently (ankle) and the offense has put up its two lowest point totals EVER with him as the starter the last two games. Denver's defense is playing well right now, having held the Chargers and Titans to 13 points and 450 yards total. Obviously, neither of those teams have the offensive firepower Kansas City does. But the Broncos defense is top four in the league in yards allowed and top seven in points allowed. They may not be as stingy as they were against the last two opponents, but they have the potential to keep Kansas City under 25 points. As for the Chiefs defense, it's never really been good. Last year, Mahomes and the offense were so productive that the defense was largely an afterthought. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs would be on a three-game losing streak right now if it wasn't for a last minute TD against Detroit. There have been only two games this year where Denver DIDN'T have the lead going into the final minute. We'll take the points. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on SOUTH ALABAMA

At 2-3, Troy has the same number of losses as they had all of last year. They haven't lost more than three games in any season since 2015, which was Neal Brown's first. Brown is gone to West Virginia and he obviously he took the program's mojo with him. The new coaching staff is struggling here as the Trojans have already lost twice as favorites (Southern Miss, Arkansas St) and then 42-10 to Missouri. All 42 points were allowed in the first half before Missouri lost its starting QB to injury. Troy also lost its starting QB in the first half with Kaleb Barker going down with an undisclosed injury. Barker was averaging 341.8 YPG passing going into the Missouri game. His absence would be significant. On the other side of the ball, Troy's defense gave up a touchdown on six consecutive drives vs. Missouri. While South Alabama's offense has not been particularly good this year, we think they are going to find success here through the air. Troy's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency. The Trojans are just 4-10 ATS their L14 home games and the home team has lost this in-state rivalry game four straight years. They've already lost outright as favorites twice this year. South Alabama has covered six of the last seven times it has been a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points and 8-2 ATS off back to back losses. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Historically speaking, the Lions have not fared well in their rivalry with the Packers. But the recent trends all seem to favor them. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last two years vs. Green Bay. Three of those wins came as underdogs. The Lions are off a bye this week and they've covered six of the last seven years after a bye. Monday Night Football seems like a nice place to return to action as Matt Stafford is 7-3 ATS all-time on MNF including 5-1 on the road. Detroit is the better offensive team here as they average more points and yards per play. Green Bay, even though 4-1, is being outgained both on a per play and per game basis. They've been outgained in three of the four wins and were only +2 in yards in the other. They gave up 563 yards last week to Dallas, a win that was largely tied to being +3 in turnovers. The last time Detroit played, they held Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdown passes. They didn't win that game (lost 34-30), but still covered, something they've done three straight times - all as underdogs. The line move is telling for this one. Aaron Rodgers won't have his favorite receiver, Davante Adams. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5

Oddsmakers had Washington as the favorite to win the NLCS before the series started. That's looking like a pretty smart position now as the Nationals won both games in St. Louis. Gone is the home field advantage in the series, but it would be wrong to write the Cardinals off this early in the series. They've got one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday. That would be Jack Flaherty. Remember Flaherty was favored to win his start in Atlanta in Game 2 and was even money for Game 5. The team split the pair, losing Game 2 by a score of 3-0 but winning Game 5, 13-1. Flaherty posted a 2.77 ERA in the two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 13 innings. Flaherty hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his previous 18 starts. He allowed zero runs in half of those 18 starts (9 times), a stretch that dates back to before the All Star Break. So even though he's facing Steven Strasburg and being backed by an offense that could barely get a hit the first two games, Flaherty +1.5 seems like a safe bet to us as he's a lock not to give up many runs. It hasn't mattered yet in this series, but the Cardinals do have the better bullpen. Washington didn't do much scoring in the first two games either. Play ST LOUIS on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

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This is an 8* play on DALLAS

Dallas started 3-0, but is now 3-2 after suffering losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. So the Jets will be a welcome sight this Sunday. Sam Darnold is making his return here for the Jets, but they are more than just a quarterback away from competing with this Cowboys team. Dallas has the #1 ranked offense in the league. The Jets are 32nd. Dallas is 2nd on defense in number of third down conversions allowed. The Jets offense is the worst at converting third downs. The Cowboys feasted on losing teams in the 3-0 start, beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. QB Prescott is 13-5-2 ATS against losing teams. He's also 7-2-1 ATS as a starter when favored by more than six points. Prescott had a career-high 463 yards passing last week. The Jets have gained only 233  yards total the last two games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI

We don't expect the Ravens to lose here. But double-digit favorite isn't their best role. They are just 3 for their last 13 ATS in it. Also, John Harbaugh hasn't been good when laying points to the Bengals. Not only is he 4-11-1 including 1-6 L7 at the window, but he's gone just 7-9 straight up in those games, also losing six of the last eight outright. The Bengals are 0-5, but they've been a tougher out than you might think. Three of the losses have been in games decided by seven points or less. In all three, Cincy had a fourth quarter lead and two of them they were up at the two-minute warning. Two of the three close games were on the road where they're now on a 6-2 ATS run despite losing all eight games straight up. Baltimore may have success running the ball in this game, but that just means it'll be a "shorter" game with less big plays. Plus the Ravens defense has not been good recently, giving up 96 points the last three weeks. They are allowing 6.9 yards per play, which is worse than the Bengals much maligned defense. The last six meetings here in Baltimore have all been games decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have beaten Miami, Arizona and a Pittsburgh team that was down to its third-string QB. Two of those wins were by six points or less. Grab the points in this AFC North battle.  Play on CINCINNATI

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

Here it is. Perhaps the worst regular season matchup we've seen in some time. It's the 0-5 Redskins taking on the 0-4 Dolphins. The only reason Miami didn't lose last week is because it was off. They have been the league's worst team so far, getting outscored 163-26. Washington has the dubious honor of being the league's next worst team. They've scored just 10 points the last two games. They've given up at least 31 in four of the five games. Just to show how unique this matchup is, it's only the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team at 0-5 or worse has been listed as a road favorite. The first was the Redskins in 1998 and they lost the game outright. While Miami is off a bye, Washington just fired its coach (Jay Gruden). While there's no denying how dubious the Dolphins have been, a team as bad as the Redskins should never be a road favorite. They (the Redskins) haven't been favored in any game since Week 9 of last year. This will be the 12 time in the Super Bowl era that two winless teams are meeting after Week 5. The home team is 8-3 ATS the previous 11 matchups. 0-4 or worse teams coming off a bye are 26-10 ATS all-time. Bill Callahan is the interim Redskins coach and he ended up being a disaster in Oakland. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* play on USC

Notre Dame has had a couple close calls with the pointspread the last two weeks. That may seem like an odd statement for a team coming off a 52-0 victory last week, but they were actually favored to beat Bowling Green by 45.5. The week prior they took advantage of some late turnovers to down Virginia 35-20 as 10.5-point favorites. Believe us when we saw that the Fighting Irish wouldn't have won that game had they not been +5 in turnovers. The week before that was the loss to Georgia. So it's been a bit of an exhausting stretch for Brian Kelly's team and now USC comes to South Bend for a Saturday night battle. The Trojans were off last week and we love the spot for them getting this many points. Two weeks ago, they upset Utah despite having to turn to third string QB Matt Fink. Fink threw for 381 yards in that game but came back down to Earth against Washington, throwing three costly interceptions in a 28-14 loss. Despite the final score, USC slightly outgained Washington in that contest. The same was true in the Trojans other loss, which was by three at BYU in overtime. Kedon Slovis has been cleared to return from a concussion this week and will get the start. Though Fink had the big game vs. Utah, consider Slovis an upgrade at the position. The Fighting Irish have covered four straight games, but their "luck" runs out here. You should expect Slovis and the USC offense to take better care of the football than previous ND opponents have. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on NEBRASKA

Minnesota has managed to stay unbeaten, but four of its five wins have been by no more than seven points. Last week's 40-17 triumph over Illinois is the outlier. At the start of the year, we certainly didn't envision Nebraska being a seven-point underdog in this game. No one did. But the Cornhuskers have suffered two defeats already, one to Ohio State, and are dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback heading into Saturday. Adrian Martinez had to leave last week's game vs. Northwestern with a knee injury and did not return. The team is preparing as if backup Noah Vedral is going to get the call and that's fine by us. Vedral followed coach Scott Frost to Lincoln as a UCF transfer. It's telling that Minnesota still isn't ranked despite its 5-0 start. We've got these teams rated pretty evenly and that's even after factoring in the Gophers homefield advantage. This line seems to be an overreaction to the Nebraska QB situation, which we feel is unwarranted. The Cornhuskers are 8-4 ATS their previous 12 road games. Last year, they were winless coming into the Minnesota game and won 53-28. Again, the Gophers struggled to get by the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They only beat Purdue by 7 despite the Boilermakers losing both their starting QB and top receiver in that game. It would be great if Martinez could play, but we're prepared to roll with Vedral if necessary. Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Sparty simply didn't have the horses to keep up with Ohio State last Saturday night in Columbus. The game got away from them late in the second quarter when the Buckeyes put 10 points on the board in the final 2:24 to go into halftime with a 27-10 halftime advantage. It is worth pointing out that - absent the second quarter - they held Ohio State to one touchdown in the other three quarters. Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin back to back weeks on the road almost seems unfair, but this matchup should be more friendly from the Michigan State perspective. Wisconsin is less athletic and less dynamic in the passing game. We know the Badgers will lean heavily on the road, but that plays right into the hands of Mark Dantonio's defense, which ranked 1st in the country at stopping the run last year and is 21st so far this year. The Spartans haven't had many bad years under Dantonio. Really, an injury-riddled and unfortunate 2016 (where they went 3-9) was the only one. Take that season away and they've gone 10-1 SU the week after suffering a double digit loss and the only loss in the situation was by a field goal. This is a lot of points for Wisconsin to lay in what should be a methodical, grind it out type game. They've been blowing out lesser teams so far (including Michigan), but struggled to get by Northwestern here in Madison and this should be a similar kind of game against a more talented opponent. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Though currently unranked, we think the Spartans are still a Top 25 team. We don't see them being blown out back to back weeks. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE

Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* Play on NEW MEXICO

This rivalry in the Mountain West Conference has squarely belonged to Colorado State in recent years. The Rams have beaten New Mexico nine straight times and covered five of the last six. However, it's not like the Lobos haven't been getting closer. They lost by only two points (20-18) in Fort Collins a year ago and then by only three the last time CSU came to Albuquerque. Losing by double digits to San Jose State last Friday wasn't a good look for New Mexico, who continues to play "quarterback roulette."  Bob Davie has had six different QB's start the last 25 games, none of which have had very much success. But Colorado State coming in as a road favorite just reeks. The Rams haven't even beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win was 38-13 over Western Illinois. They've lost four straight since their own QB, Colin Hill, was lost for the season against Arkansas. New Mexico has won both home games this year. There was an excuse for the Lobos losing 32-21 at San Jose State last week and that excuse was six turnovers. Take better care of the football this week and they can pull the upset. Colorado State has turned it over 16 times in six games. They've also lost outright three of the previous six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Another disadvantage the Rams face here is their last game was Saturday while New Mexico played last Friday. Play on NEW MEXICO

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This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND

Stop us when you've heard this one before. The Patriots are once again the class of the NFL. As one of the league's two undefeateds, they've outscored their five opponents by 121 points. Some of the competition can certainly be called into question. After all, they've faced the league's three worst teams - Dolphins, Jets, Redskins - who are a combined 0-13. But they've still only allowed two offensive touchdowns all season. One was a 65-yard run last week. Just to show how much they're in front of the rest of the league, this will already be the fourth time this year that they're being favored by at least two touchdowns. Thursday night's opponent is the Giants, who already had some of the wind taken out of their sails with last week's poor effort vs. Minnesota. After rookie QB Daniel Jones guided them to a couple victories, the Vikings game went a lot differently as the offense barely gained 200 yards in a 28-10 loss. New York easily could be 1-4 right now with the only convincing win coming against the winless Redskins. Rookie QB's traditionally do not fare well against Bill Belichick, so we'll call for Jones to struggle again this week. The Giants defense has already allowed 490 or more yards in three games and is giving up 6.8 yards per play. So good luck stopping Tom Brady. Lay the big number as New England is 40-17-2 ATS its last 59 home games. Play on NEW ENGLAND

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This is an 8* play on NC STATE

Syracuse and North Carolina State are both 3-2 entering Thursday night's ACC matchup, but it feels like whomever loses this game is going to see their season go south in a hurry. Syracuse won 10 games last year. But having to replace the school's all-time passing leader was going to be a chore. After opening the season with a 24-0 win over Liberty (whose coach Hugh Freeze was literally laying in bed), the Orange were subsequently squeezed by both Maryland and Clemson. They lost those games by a combined score of 104-26. They've since beaten Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but that doesn't mean much given the nature of the opponents. They're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, especially on defense, but they're also still using a backup center. Six freshman started the game vs. Holy Cross. QB DeVito had to leave that game with an upper body injury, but will play in this game. Speaking of quarterbacks, NC State turns to a new one Thursday as Bailey Hockman replaces the ineffective Matthew McKay. The Wolfpack like to throw and McKay simply wasn't getting the ball downfield the way coach Doeren wanted. NC State is on a three-game ATS losing streak and was beaten soundly by both West Virginia and Florida State. But they are 3-0 in Raleigh this year and 14-2 their last 16 at home. Syracuse is 4-16 SU on the ACC road since 2014. A change in quarterback should lead to better results for the home team this week as NC State actually played better than you think in the 31-13 loss to Florida State as total yardage and first downs were basically dead even. Play on NORTH CAROLINA STATE

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (run line)

The LDS between the Nationals and Dodgers will go to a Game 5 in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Starting for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg. Starting for LA will be Walker Buehler (not Clayton Kershaw). As good as Buehler and the Dodgers have been, the opportunity to take Strasburg and the Nationals +1.5 (run line) in this situation is even better. Buehler was sensational in winning Game 1. He gave up just one hit in six innings. But Strasburg was equally as sensational in winning Game 2. He allowed just one run and three hits in six innings, beating Kershaw. The numbers from Strasburg's last several starts are also eye-opening. It's a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three as he's given up two runs and 10 hits in 19 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and just three walks. For the sake of comparison, Buehler has allowed six runs his last three starts (only 16 innings) and has 10 walks. In a game that rates pretty close to a toss-up, laying juice to get the 1.5 runs seems like a smart move. Washington has proven it can beat the mighty Dodgers. They are 3-3 here in LA this season and 6-6 the L3 seasons. Play WASHINGTON +1.5

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA +1.5

The Twins have simply had no luck when it comes to facing the Yankees in the playoffs. They've lost 12 straight postseason games to them and 15 straight postseason games overall! Tonight, their season hangs in the balance, but they are back home with Jake Odorizzi set to start. Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe manager Rocco Baldelli should have kept Odorizzi as his Game 2 starter as Randy Dobnak was no match for the powerful Yankees lineup. But the Twins have a powerful lineup of their own, one that also hit 300+ home runs in the regular season, something no other team in baseball history had done prior to 2019. Giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with at home seems like a smart play at home, especially because this is the first time in the series Minnesota looks to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Odorizzi has an 8-2 team start record his 10 trips to the mound. None of those have seen him give up more than three earned runs. It's a streak that goes all the way back to the end of July. The Yankees turn to Severino, who pitched just three times this year due to a shoulder injury. Up 2-0 in the series, this is probably the best time to try him, but we still think he's far from a safe bet at this point. While history is not on the Twins side tonight, we are, at least with them getting 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA on the RUN LINE. 

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This is a 10* play on SAN FRANCISCO

While the Browns grabbed all the offseason headlines, it's been the 49ers starting 3-0 that has been the league's biggest surprise so far. Tonight, they host the 2-2 Browns, who are making their second appearance on MNF in three weeks. The first couldn't have gone much better as they routed the hapless Jets 23-3. But last week's 40-25 win in Baltimore was probably the most impressive we've seen Cleveland look all season. But we still have question marks about this team - on both sides of the ball. Over half of Nick Chubb's 166 yards rushing against the Ravens came on one play (88 yard touchdown run). The 49ers have a top five run defense, so look for Chubb to struggle to duplicate last week's success. QB Mayfield is often guilty of holding onto the ball for too long, leading to poor decisions or the offensive line breaking down. Again, look for the 49ers defensive front to be the biggest factor in this game. San Francisco is off a bye and West Coast teams typically have the edge over Eastern Time Zone opponents in these primetime games. So the situation definitely favors the home team. The 49ers offense, save for five turnovers against the Steelers, has been outstanding the last two games as they've rolled up over 1,000 yards! They've averaged over 6.5 yards per play during that time. That they still beat Pittsburgh, even though they were -3 in turnovers, is actually quite impressive. The defense held the Steelers to only 239 total yards. The Niners are a better team than the Browns and those "expecting" them to lose a game are going to be sorely disappointed. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY +1.5

The Rays are finding out the hard way just how difficult facing this Astros starting rotation can be in a postseason format. As expected, Tampa has struggled to score runs here, managing just three total in the first two games and none of those came against Houston starters Verlander and Cole. Now they are set to face Zack Grienke. At least they will do so at Tropicana Field where during the regular season the Rays allowed just 3.8 runs/game themselves.  It stands to reason that the game should be more competitive now. Also the Rays are going with Charlie Morton, the winner of the Wild Card Game, who allowed just one run across five innings. The Rays have now won Morton's last six starts. Morton has actually been one of the more consistent starters in the American League all season. He has a 23-11 team start record overall and his numbers at home are very good. His ERA is 2.59. His WHIP is 0.96. In their only previous trip to Tampa this year (very early in season), the Astros actually lost three of the four games. Play TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

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THis is an 8* play on ARIZONA

A battle of winless teams has "upset" written all over it, if you can even call it that. The 0-3-1 Cardinals are underdogs to the 0-4 Bengals, but it's the dog that's played better in our opinion. Cincinnati looked absolutely dreadful Monday night in a 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh. This team just doesn't have much. It was just 175 total yards gained against a bad Steelers defense. Two times in the first three weeks, the Bengals were game on the road. They came up one point short in Seattle and only four points short in Buffalo. But really the only "good" game was the Seattle one. They were shutout in the first half by the Bills before a second half rally proved futile. Cincy has gotten crushed by the 49ers 41-17, their only home game so far. Arizona was competitive the first two games, tying Detroit and losing by only six to Baltimore. But losing back to back home games by double digits was certainly disappointing. Still, we rate Arizona as the better team here. With them taking the points, it's an automatic play for us. Both teams have offensive line issues, but the Bengals are worse. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Andy Dalton. Cincy is not only 1-6 ATS off a division loss, they are 1-6 straight up. Play on ARIZONA

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