Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | 10-25 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (BLOCKBUSTER) Washington comes to town hungry, looking to avoid a third straight loss. The best part aout the Commanders this year though has arguably been the play of veteran quarterback Carson Wentz. They catch a break here facing this depleted Dallas offense. Cooper Rush has been decent so far, but he's no Dak Prescott. Defensively the Cowboys have been OK as well. It's interesting to note though that Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight when allowing 350 more yards of offense in its previous game. Both teams have plenty of issues, but in a game that I see being decided by whichever of these divisional foes has it hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is the Commanders AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens +3.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
8* RAVENS (SPECIAL) Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season, falling 21-19 at Miami as a 4-point favorite. Now the Bills are a favorite again on the road and I think the oddsmakers are mistaken here. Josh Allen is playing pretty well, but LaMar Jackson is on fire. Yes, the Ravens blew a big lead to Miami two weeks ago, but Baltimore bounced back huge in last week's potentially dangerous 37-26 win over the Patriots. Let's not read too much into early season offensive and defensive numbers for either side. This one just sets up really well for the home side. I think the Bills are frustrated and a second straight road game as a favorite against a team filled with confidence is just not what the doctor ordered right now. The outright is possible, but my official call will be grab as many points as you can; the play is the Ravens! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 34 m | Show | |
8* STANFORD (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) Am I calling for a straight-up, outright win here for Stanford as a massive underdog on the road? I am not. But I do think that the hungry Cardinal can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in this one. Stanford is just 1-2, most recently falling to No. 18 ranked Washington by a score of 40-22. QB Tanner McKee though was decent, going 17 of 26 for 286 yards, three TD's and an INT. I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one as well. The Ducks are 3-1, but they're off a much tighter than expected 44-41 win at Washington State and a small mental letdown is imminent in my opinion. QB Bo Nix had 428 yards passing, three TD's and an INT for the Ducks last week, but as I said, everything points to McKee keeping pace here. Look for the Ducks to go up early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half; the play is Stanford! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Colorado +17.5 v. Arizona | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
9* COLORADO (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Outright win? I'm not calling for it. That said, I think the 0-4 Buffaloes lay everything on the line here and keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arizona is 2-2 and I expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent to its game here at home against Oregon next weekend. The Buffs are struggling on both sides of the ball, but we can expect their QB Owen McCown to move the ball today against a Wildcats' defense that's conceding 34 PPG. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura has eight TD passes to his credit, but he's also been intercepted six times. Look for Colorado to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is the BUFFS. AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOW) Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-27-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY) The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
8* COLTS (SUPER BLOWOUT) With their backs against the wall, the Indianapolis Colts will fight tooth and nail here to try and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. I wonder if Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are glad they left their former teams for "greener pastures?" It's been a grind for both, but arguably much more so for Ryan and the 0-1-1 Colts (note that only 2.5% of teams that start 0-3 ever even make it to the playoffs.) The one thing going for the Colts this season? They're in a downright terrible division, with Tennessee 0-2, Houston with the identical 0-1-1 record and Jacksonville leading the way at 1-1-0. Kansas City has a HIGH PROFILE date at Tampa Bay next week, and I believe it'll get caught "looking ahead." I expect Ryan the Colts to dig deep here and, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to earn the comfortable cover; the play is Indy AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins +5.5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (SPECIAL) I think an outright win could be in the cards here. That said, in the end I'm going to grab the points. Both teams are 2-0, and each has looked impressive. This is now the start of a really tough stretch for the Bills, with a game at Baltimore next week, followed by Pittsburgh, at Kansas City and Green Bay. Miami has a quick turn around to play on Thursday night, but a date vs. the 0-2 Bengals now isn't quite as important. Miami plays with revenge here after a 26-11 to the Bills last Halloween. Miami has the offense to easily keep pace, and I believe its defense rebounds from last week's shaky performance. As I said off the top, the outright is possible, but the official call here will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
8* VIKINGS (BLOOD-BATH) The Lions have been "sexy" underdogs so far over the first two weeks, but I think some regression will be in order here against this now desperate Vikings team that's looking to bounce back from a poor 24-7 effort in Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that though Minnesota looked dominating in its 23-7 home win over the Packers. So which Vikings team can we expect here? I say the same one that we saw in Week 1. Detroit came up just short in its Week 1 38-35 home setback to Philly, but then it bounced back with the 36-37 home win over Washington in Week 2. Now hitting the road for the first time, I'm predicting a step back for the Lions this week. Look for the hungry Vikings to pull away for the comfortable win and cover; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
8* JETS (SPREAD-BEATER) The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but they're now 0-2 SU/ATS this season. The Jets are 1-1 SU/ATS, and coming off an epic 31-30 road win over the Browns. I think that Bengals' QB Joe Burrow is likely the best player on the field of play today, but I don't think his team is. Especially such a big favorite on the road. I think this line should be more like -2.5. Giving this one the good old "eye test" here in Week 3. I actually think an outright victory is VERY possible, but in the end, let's grab the points; the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Guardians v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN) I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (SPECIAL) The bottom line here is that I believe that this one sets up as a classic "letdown/lookahead" spot for the home side. Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with conference play starting next week vs. South Carolina, I think the Wildcats will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the sceond half. NIU is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Huskies start league play next week as well. I expect NIU veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to move the ball in the second half. Kentucky has some playmakers on defense, but the offense hasn't been that impressive. This is just WAY too many points to be giving up, as the oddsmakers try to catch the public money. No outright, but closer than expected; the play is Northern Illinois! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Mets v. A's +1.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I like the A's to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the solid ATS cover on the runline option. The Mets had their five-game win streak come to an end in a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee in their most recent action, while Oakland is coming off a 9-5 loss at Seattle last night. The Mets see Chiss Bassitt toe the slab, and he's 14-8 with a 3.32 ERA, while Cole Irvin, who is 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA, counters for the the A's. Bassitt has been great f late, but I think he'll struggle against his former team here. The A's have still won three of their last five. Irvin has a chance, with a victory today, to match his career-best for wins in a season, so he has plenty of motivation here today a well. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbin the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Detroit comes to Chicago after losing two of three at Baltimore, while Chicago enters having just been swept at home by Cleveland in three straight. The Tigers will look to keep playing spoiler here and in a contest that I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Detroit goes with Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a massive off-season contract and with the Tigers and who is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. He'll be opposed by Lucas Giolito, who is a poor 10-9 with a ballooned 5.07 ERA. He's a pedestrian 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in seven appearances vs. the White Sox. I think these guys are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY) Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
9* Cardinals RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Two teams jockeying for positioning go head-to-head here on Thursday night in this NL matchup, but after losing three straight, I like the Cardinals to dig deep here and bounce back finally. That includes two straight losses to open this series, falling 5-0 and 1-0. Note that St. Louis is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent. After winning five straight, I think the Padres finally have a letdown here. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the Padres and he's 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA. He'll be going up against the Cards' Jack Flaherty, who is just 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is stuck on 698 home runs, is 3 for 9 with a homer off Musgrove (Joe's just 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA in ten lifetime starts vs. the Cards.) Flaherty is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 career frames vs. the Friars. This is his fourth start of the season and I expect him to be sharp. While an outright win isn't out of the question, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is St. Louis on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -130 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
10* TITANS (MNF GOY) Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Orioles | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, including yesterday's matchup by a score of 11-5. I think the visiting side bounces back here though and gives the Orioles a run for their money. The Orioles have their hopes set on one of the Wildcards, but the Tigers will look to play spoiler here. Baltimore has not been playing well, having won just five of its past 13. Miguel Cabrera has been activated for the Tigers as well, so that's a big boost for Detroit's offense. Tyler Wells is 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for the Orioles. Baltimore has lost four of his last five trips to the hill. Tyler Alexander counters for Detroit, and he's 3-10 with a 5.35 ERA. Alexander has fared well against Baltimore in two career starts and I think he can match the erratic Wells right now. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Giants had won four of five before the Dodgers came to town. They now play with double revenge after dropping the first two games of this series by score of 5-0 and 7-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive battle here though in the finale of this three-game set. It's an important game for San Francisco, which hits the road for seven straight after this. LA on the other hand gets caught looking ahead to seven straight at home starting tomorrow. I believe these starters to be a "wash." Andrew Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Dodgers (sample size is still small), while Alex Cobb is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA for the Giants. In a situation like that, the value swings here to the undervalued home underdog. And while I do think an outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys +8 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
9* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone and their dogs are expecting the Bengals to roll in here and smash the Cowboys without Dak Prescott in the lineup. Dak played in most of last week's 19-3 loss to Tampa, and he looked pretty inept. Perhaps Cooper Rush is an upgrade? Rush was 7 of 13 for 64 yards last week. RB Ezekial Elliot will be expected to step up and alleviate the pressure. Defensively the Cowboys looked great in defeat though, as the unit had to carry the load all night long. And last week the Bengals looked bad anyways. The Steelers defense looked strong, but the Cowboys I think are even better in that department. Cincinnati will be without WR Tee Higgins as well, which is another blow here for Joe Burrow on the road. I think this will be very tight. In a game that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Falcons +11 v. Rams | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER BLOWOUT) Atlanta lost a tough one by a score of 27-26 to the Saints at home as a six-point underdog. It was an impressive first showing and I believe Marcus Mariota and company can build off that performance. The Rams on the other hand looked pretty out of sort in falling 31-10 at home on Opening night. LA has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and it all started with the weak performance of Matthew Stafford. He really does have a "feel" about him about following in the footsteps of Joe Flacco after he won the Super Bowl. Atlanta looked good for three quarters, but once again blew a double digit lead in the fourth. Sean McVay's record after a loss is 18-8, including 16-9-1 ATS. However, these numbers are set to fall further here in my opinion. The Rams are 7-11 when favored since 2011 and Atlanta is interestingly 13-3 ATS in its last 16 Week 2 contests. Too many points here. The Falcons showed the ability to play defense last week. Expect this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY) I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Toronto has an 8-7 series lead, but Baltimore will be looking to even things out here. The home side sends Alek Manoah (14-7, 2.43 ERA) to the hill, while the visitors counter with Dean Kremer (7-5, 3.34.) Manoah has enjoyed success against the Orioles, while Kremer has struggled against the Jays. But that was then, and this is now. I look for Kremer to step up here and match his counterpart in this important game. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two straight losses against an opponent as well. The play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams won. Both teams didn't look fantastic. I'd argue though that the Dolphins win at home over the Patriots is more impressive than the Ravens victory over the Jets. Tua Tagovailo had 270 passing yards and a TD, but the Dolphins looks great defensively, holding the Pats to just seven points and forcing three turnovers. The Ravens looked decent defensively, but that was against Joe Flacco and the Jets! Lamar Jackson did have 313 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception, but he completed just 56 percent of his passes. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 15 points or less in their last game, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six September games. While I do think the outright win is possible, let's grab the points; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (SPECIAL) The Commanders pulled away for the 28-22 home win and cover over the Jaguars last weekend and I think they can keep that positive momentum rolling here. Detroit fought tooth and nail with the Eagles, but fell 38-35, only managing to earn the cover with the six points they were afforded. Carson Wentz finished with 316 passing yards, four TD's and two INT's. Five different Washington receivers had over 40 yards. Jared Goff had 215 passing yards, two touchdowns and an INT in the Lions' Week 1 loss. Goff was decent, but the defense was a disaster. It's the biggest question mark here headed into this game and it's one that I believe that Wentz and the visiting side can take advantage of. The Eagles' secondary is a mess, so let's not read too much into Detroit's production. Washington's defense is a step up here and I think that Wentz is the best QB on the field of play. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SDSU (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) I'm not calling for the outright obviously, but I do definitely expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Both teams are 1-1 SU. SDSU is 0-2 ATS and Utah is 1-1 ATS. The Aztecs lost 38-20 to Arizona in Week 1 and then they beat Idaho State by a score of 38-7, unable to cover the large 34-point spread. But now SDSU is the big underdog in this matchup. Utah lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite, and then took its frustrations out on Southern Utah in last week's 73-7 destruction. With a game at Arizona State next weekend though and the start of conference action for real, this sets up as a bit of a trap game for the home side. The Aztecs are a run first team. Last week they had 488 total yards. SDSU's defense bounced back after a poor showing in its opener as well. It's difficult to rate Utah quite yet, as it looked pretty pedestrian in the Week 1 loss, and then who knows with last week's blowout victory. Utah though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory of 20 or more points, while SDSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. Utah will win this game, and avenge last year's loss to SDSU, but I expect it to be much closer than what this large spread would indicate. As I said off the top, no outright upset or anything this year, but expect a battle until the end; the play is SDSU! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS A&M (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Miami has outscored its first two opponents by a score of 100-20. Texas A&M is 1-1 after a shocking loss at home to Appalachian State last weekend. I say the Aggies bounce back here though. They were 18-point or so favorites in that contest! Miami beat Southern Miss in its last outing. Note though that this is the Hurricanes' first road game this season and they went just 2-2 away from friendly confines last year. Tyler VanDyke was a standout last week with 261 yards passing and a TD. A&M did indeed lose 17-14 to App State last week. QB Haynes King only had 97 passing yards, no TD's and no INT's, one week after passing for 364 yards in the season opener. The Aggies though have done very well in this spot, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference contests and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC. Miami on the other hand is a dismal 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a straight up victory. Look for the home side to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-6 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) While I do think an outright upset is very possible, in the end I believe that the runline option offers the better value here. Baltimore lost the opener here 6-3 yesterday, but I think it'll bounce back here on Saturday. The Jays had to use seevn pitchers on Friday night to earn the victory. These teams are now 7-7 in their season series. The home side goes with Jose Berrios, who is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA, while the visitors counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Berrios has had more success vs. the Orioles this year than Bradish has vs. the Jays, but these guys are a "wash" for all intents and purposes. I don't really trust either. With the Jays' bullpen tired, I think the door is open for the Orioles here. The play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Angels have lost four in a row, but I think they step up here and play spoiler to the Mariners on Friday night. Seattle has won three of its last four, most recently splitting a two-game series with the Padres. The Mariners are currently tied with Toronto for the top wild card spot. Michael Lorenzen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA for the Angels, and while he's had difficulties with the Mariners in the past, note that he's 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home this season. Ray has been exceptional after a poor start to his 2022 campaign, entering 12-9 with a 3.56 ERA. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I say the correct call is to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM) I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (DOMINATION) The Phillies have now won five straight after sweeping the Nationals, and then taking the first two games of this series. I believe Philly has a small letdown here finally as it gets caught looking ahead to its series starting at Atlanta tomorrow, followed by the Jays and then another three-game series at home against the Braves. This is a "trap" for Philadelphia. Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA for the Phillies, while Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.04 ERA. Syndergaard is 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home this year, but just 2-6 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. Lopez is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. While I do think the outright is possible, the value here is grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-14-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's 2 game win streak came to an end in last night's 7-6 loss here in extra innings to the Yanks. I believe we'll see a similar very tight and competitive affair here on Wednesday as well. The Yanks have won 3 straight and I expect some complacency here. Brayan Bello is 1-5 with a with a 5.79 ERA overall this year for the Red Sox, but he's thrown into the 6th inning in his past 2 starts and he owns a 3.55 ERA over his last six outings. Note that 14 Red Sox/Yankees games this year have been decided by one run! Nestor Cortes Jr. is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the Yanks. He faced the Red Sox on July 8th and was shelled for 4 runs over 3 innigns off 8 hits. An outright upset is possible, but the official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* AL GOY Tigers RUNLINE. Houston has won 7 of its last 10, but after yesterday's 7-0 win here, I believe it'll have its hands full on Tuesday. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 10 and been shutout in 2 straight (the Tigers though are 7-3 in their L10 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) I believe these starters are much more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Houston goes with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who looked great in his MLB debut against the Rangers on Sept. 5th, allowing three hits over six scoreless. I believe regression is now in order here in his second start. And I like Drew Hutchinson here, who is 2-7 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts vs. the Astros, but I expect him to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. The outright is possible, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Arkansas State v. Ohio State -44 | 12-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DESTRUCTION ON OHIO STATE This is a mismatch of epic proportions. They can't make the spread high enough. The Buckeyes took a bit to get started against Notre Dame. They got it going though and will be good from the start of this one. Arkansas State faced Grambling in its opener. So, this is about as a big a step up in class as a team can take. They will not be prepared. Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. This will be a thrashing! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
8* HOOK AND LADDER ON BOISE We played against the Broncos in their Week 1 loss to Oregon State. New Mexico is a far cry from OSU. The Broncos routinely beat the stuffing out of this team. Last year's game was typical, a 37-0 crush-job. The previous meeting was 42-9. The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Lobos are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS their last four, off an ATS loss. Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina +12.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON EAST CAROLINA NC State will have a good year but this will be a tough test. A noon ET start first game against an underrated, upset-minded, motivated instate rival. Host ECU is coming off its best season in several years. The Pirates were set to go to a bowl (for the first time since 2014) last year but the Military Bowl was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That makes for some unfinished business. The Pack are 5-13 ATS their last 18 on the road. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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08-31-22 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* DODGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Mets are coming off back-to-back losses. They fell 1-0 to Colorado after taking the first 2 games over the Rockies, before then falling 4-3 here in yesterday's series opener vs. the Dodgers. In what I expect to be another very tight and competitive affair, one that could very likely be decided in extras, I'm going to suggest laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Obviously we have two of the World's best pithers going head-to-head here. Tyler Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.69 ERA for the Dodgers, while Jacob deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA for the Mets. This is one of those "Any Given Sunday" type of scenarios. It would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to come out on top, and that for all intents and purposes, makes them a "wash." The Mets stayed 3 games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East after the Braves lost 3-2 to the Rockies yesterday, while the Dodgers maintain a 19.5-games lead over everyone. As I said off the top, this one is going to be a classic "duel." Because of that, the play here is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (IL GOM) In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend grabbing the home side on the runline option. Miami has lost 5 straight in this series, so it won't be lacking for motivation today. Miami sees Jesus Luzardo toe the slab, and he's 3-5 with a 3.34 ERA, while the visitors counter with SHane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.20 ERA. Luzardo enters on top form though and I believe that momentum gets carried over here, as he's posted 3 quality starts out of his past 4 games and has posted a 2.67 ERA over 5 August starts. McClanahan has had plenty of success against the Fish in the past, but who hasn't? The bottom line here is that I look for Luzardo to match McClanahan inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued hungry home underedog. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab the Marlins on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (GAME OF WEEK) The Dodgers have taken 2 of 3 here in Miami so far, but with a 3-game series at the Mets starting tomorrow night, I think they get caught "looking ahead." They come in complacent with their ace on the mound Tony Gonsolin, who continues to defy the odds and enters with a 16-1 record with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez, who is 8-8 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (he's been great in all "night" contests this season as well, going 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA in all such instances.) Lopez is also 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Look for Lopez to match Gonsolin inning for inning and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-28-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have been following an interesting pattern of late, and I expect it to continue here. Chicago has been trading wins and losses over its last 7 games, and coming off the 7-0 loss here yesterday, I believe it has a good chance at continuing that run. That said, in a contest that I expect to be much more competitive that yesterday's game, I'm going to lay this reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chicago is actually 5-1 in its last 6 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 6 or more runs as well. The Cubs hand the ball to Adrian Sampson (1-4, 4.04 ERA), who is coming off a shaky outing, but who did well against Milwaukee when he faced it on July 6th, going 6 innins and allowing 1 run and striking out 5 in the victory. I expect him to bounce back here though and raise the level of his game to match his counterpart Eric Lauer (9-5, 3.44.) He's 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Cubs this season, but I expect Sampson to match him inning for inning. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Yanks enter complacent now again after 5 straight victories. That includes a 13-4 win in the opener of this 4-game series here in Oakland, followed by yesterday's much tighter 3-2 victory last night. I'm fully expecting Saturday's contest to follow suit from Friday's highly competitive affair. Domingo German is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA for the Yanks. So far German though has been considerably better in front of the home town crowd, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in New York, compared to 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA everywhere else. The home side counters with Adam Oller, who is just 2-6 with a 6.41 ERA. Oller is coming off a decent outing though and I expect him to build off that, as he went 6 innings, allowing 3 runs in what turned out to be an unfrotunate no-decision vs. the Marlins. I think New York is over-priced here and as I said off the top, I expect another really tight and competitive game here in Oakland as the A's try to snap New York's 5-game win skein; the play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-26-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but they'll be eager to snap a 6-game skid. Most recently they lost 4 straight in Tampa. The Jays look poised for a letdown here after winning 7 of their last 10, including 3 in a row. The Blue Jays won in 10 innings for a 2nd game in a row as well, adding to the letdown scenario here vs. the lowly, albeit hungry Angels. Mitch White is 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA for the Jays, while Reid Detmers is 4-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the Angels. This is the first time Detmers has faced Toronto, but White faced the Angels last year and was shelled for 6 runs over 1 inning. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-25-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* TWINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Twins on the runline last night, and while that play unforuntately came up a run short, I believe the stage is now set for a possible outright upset here for the visiting side. That said, the value is just too good to turn down ultimately for the Twins on the runline option in my opinion. The Twins turn to Chris Archer, who is 2-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Minnesota is 0-5 vs. Houston this year, getting outscored 30-8. Archer though is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 9 career outings vs. the Astros, including going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 5 career starts in Houston. Luis Garcia is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA and while he's had plenty of success against the Twins in the past, the bottom line here is that I expect Archer to match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued, but extremely hungry road underdog; the play is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-24-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* BLOOD-BATH Twins RUNLINE. The hungry Twins are poised for an outright victory here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. The Twins have now lost 4 in a row after droopping 3 straight at home to Texas, and then falling 4-2 here in yesterday's series opener (Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last 10 after 3 or more straight losses). Dylan Bundy is 7-4 with a 4.60 ERA for the Twins. He most recently allowed 1 run over 6 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. That's back-to-back quality outings for Bundy and I expect him to carry that momentum over here and down the stretch. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez, who is 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA. Look for Bundy to continue to elevate the level of his play and to match Valdez inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings to the hugry undervalued underdog. The play here though is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-23-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels have lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 straight (note that LA is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more consecutive losses), which includes a 2-1 setback here in yesterday's 4-game series opener. I'm expecting another really tight game here as well, and while the outright is of course possible, the runline option is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Tampa can't afford to take the foot off the gas in the AL East race, but after 3 straight victories and winning 6 of its last 7, I believe it comes out a bit complacent here. The starters are pretty evenly matched as well. Corey Kluber is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA for the Rays, but he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Halos. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 4-5 with a 4.12 ERA. Note that over 4 starts since the all star game he's 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA spanning 22 2/3's frames of work. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-22-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (GOW) Chicago had its 5 game win streak come to an end yesterday's in its 6-2 loss at home to Milwaukee. I think the Cubs can bounce back here though and, at the very least, keep this one close enough for the comfortable "runline" cover. And after 7 straight victories, I believe that the Cardinals finally have a small letdown here. St. Louis sees Jordan Montgomery toe the slabe, and he's 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA. The home side counters with Drew Smyly, who is 5-6 with a 3.67 ERA. For all intents and purposes, I believe these starters are a "wash," which swings the value here to the undervalued home underdog. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-21-22 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think the Tigers will build off their 4-3 win over the Angels here yesterday. Neither team is going to be in the playoffs. Yes this is Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels, but I still think that LA is overpriced here on the road. Eduardo Rodriguez returns to Detroit today after time off due to injury, and then something personal. He's just 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA, but he threw 3 minor league stints and gave up one run while striking out 11 over 6 innings on Tuesday: "It was difficult to step away from what I've been through my whole career, my teammates and everything," Rodriguez said. "But for me, family is always first. My second family is my teammates and this organization. They've given me the opportunity to be here, and I am back here now with my second family. Mentally, physically, I feel good to be back here." Ohtani is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA. He's been a consistent bright spot for the Angels on both sides of the plate, but I'm expecting Rodriguez to match his counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I've always felt that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's Rodriguez and the Tigers here today. While the outright is possible, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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08-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Texas has dropped 3 of its past 4, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-1. The Rangers catch the Twins at a good time here though in my opinion and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'll recommend grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance for the reasonable price. After sweeping the Royals in 3 games and earning the win yesterday, all signs point to a predictable letdown here for the home side. Glenn Otto is 5-8 with a 4.96 ERA for the Rangers, while Chris Archer is 2-6 with a 4.15 ERA for the Twins. For all intents and purposes, I'll call these starters a "wash." With the majority of the public money on the home side here, the value has now swung the other way for this undervalued underdog. And while I do think the outright win is possible, the official call is to grab Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-19-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (NON-DIV GOY) The Royals have now lost 4 straight after yesterday's 7-1 setback here in Tampa Bay. The Royals have been struggling to score, but I expect them to, at the very least, dig deep and keep this one interesting late. This is a 4 game series. The Rays have hit a "vanilla" part of their schedule, with upcoming series against the Angels and Red Sox up next. Regardless, I believe they'll have their hands full here today with Royals' ace Brady Singer, who is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA. Singer faced the Rays on July 23rd and allowed 2 runs over 6 innings while also striking out 12. Over his last 32 innings of work Singer has posted a 1.67 ERA. McClanhan has lost 2 of his last 3 outing and seen his ERA rise from 1.71 from pre-All Star break, to 2.28 post. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-18-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona last night on the runline, and in the end I didn't even need the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the Diamondbacks 3-2 victory. In another contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'll once again recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. The loss snapped a 5-game win streak for the Giants, and another letdown wouldn't be suprising in this spot in my opinion. These starters are evenly matched. Zach Gallen (8-2, 2.94 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while Logan Webb (11-5, 3.00) counters for the home side. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." With an 8-game road trip starting in Colorado, expect San Francisco to get caught looking ahead here as well. This is a "trap" for the Giants. And I do think it's worth sprinkling a little on the money line, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona will, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in my estimation, so in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option. Arizona has fallen 6-1 and 2-1 over the first 2 games of this series. San Francisco desperately needs to make up ground, but Arizona isn't going to roll over here. Zach Davies is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for Arizona, while Carlos Rodon is 11-6 with a 2.95 ERA for the Giants. After B2B walk off wins, expect San Francisco to come back down to Earth tonight. I think Davies matches Rodon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued underdog. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
9* BREWERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Dodgers have now lost 2 of their last 3 after last night's 5-4, 10-inning loss here. I think they'll have another letdown here as well. Milwaukee needs to string some wins together and in what I anticipate to be another very tight affair tonight, I'm recommeding grabbing Milwaukee on the runline option here. Tony Gonsolin is 14-1 with a 2.24 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been awesome. He'll be opposed by Milwaukee's ace Eric Lauer, who is 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA. Lauer though is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home. Look for Lauer and the hungry Brewers to, at the very least, keep this one comfortable enough to cover with the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS (RUNLINE) The Athletics finally snapped a 9 game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Rangers yesterday and I think they'll, at the very least, keep today's game close enough to earn the ATS (runline) cover. The Rangers 3 game win streak came to an end yesterday and I believe they'll have a letdown here as well. Adam Oller is 1-5 with a 7.26 ERA for Oakland. Oller has faced some stiff opponents since returning to the rotatin, including facing the Astros 3 times over his last 5 games. Oller has struggled, but I still don't think that Rangers' rookie Cole Ragans should be favored by this much at this point, despite his opposition. Ragans is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA, most recently giving up 5 runs over 4 innings in a 7-3 loss to the Astros on Thursday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-16-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL GOM) The Royals beat the Dodgers 4-0, breaking LA's 12-game win streak, but then fell 4-2 in the opener here at Minnesota yesterday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the hungry visiting side on the "runline" option. The Twins lost 3 of 3 to the Angels before yesterday's victory. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Royals, and he's 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, who is 6-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Greinke has had difficulties with the Twins in the past, but he's been sharp of late and I expect the veteran to match Gray inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings here to the undervalued underdog. The play is Kansas City on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Dodgers 12-game win streak came to an end last night in the Royals' 4-0 victory in Kansas City. I had a play on KC on the "runline" in that one. I think this is a good situational play, as another letdown here after their first loss in ages is imminent in my estimation. The Brewers on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after loing 2 of 3 at St. Louis over the weekend, including a 6-3 setback last night. Julio Urias toes the slab for the visitors. He's been great, going 12-6 with a 2.49 ERA so far. The home side counters with Freddy Peralta, who is 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA. Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Urias is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 6 career outings vs. the Brewers. I believe though that Peralta can match Urias inning for innings and in a scenario like that, I feel the value now swings to this undervalued hungry home underdog. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab Milwaukee on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
9* ANGELS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) I think that Tucker Davidson can match his counterpart Chris Archer inning for inning tonight, and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued home underdog. LA has quietly been playing better of late, winning 4 of its last 5, including yesterday's contest here vs. the Twins by a score of 5-3. Minnesota is just 27-29 on the road now. Davidson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA, while Archer is 2-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Archer is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA over his last 5 starts. Davidson gave up 6 runs in his debut last Sunday to a hot Seattle team, but I expect him to settle down here at home: "If you look at my walk rate in Triple-A, it's the lowest of my career," Davidson said. "I just have to translate it up here. Maybe not be so fine and trust my stuff. More of a 'here it is, hit it,' and then good things will happen. I think the big thing is getting ahead with strike-one and putting the throttle down when I can." The official call in this one is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Win | 107 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight. That's important to note here though, as the Pirates have gone 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more straight losses in a row. They've dropped the first 2 games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-0 (note that the Bucs are also 7-3 in their last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) Alex Wood toes the slab for the home side. He's been hit or miss this season, as he's 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors counter with Zach Thompson, who is 3-9 with a 5.08 ERA. Thompson hasn't won in 9 starts, so he won't be lacking for motivation here. I think Thompson can match Wood inning for inning today. For all the reasons listed above, I expect the momentum in this series to shift; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I like the A's to dip deep, play with pride, and, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Oakland has lost seven straight now. It's off the 8-0 loss here yesterday, but note that it's 7-3 in its last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 5 or more runs. Houston gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today, with a 4-game series at the White Sox starting tomorrow, followed by a 3-game set at Atlanta. Cole Irvin has been a bright spot for the A's this year, as he's 6-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. I expect him to match Christian Javier, who is 6-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The outright upset is possible, but the value lies in the visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
6* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Texas has lost 8 of its last 10, including yesterday's series opener here with Seattle by a score of 6-2, but I believe the conditions are now right for a much more competitive battle on Saturday. Seattle comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won 7 of its last 10. After 3 straight victories here though, I'm expecting a letdown. Marco Gonzalez toes the slab for the visitors and he's 7-11 with a 3.98 ERA. He's just 2-6 with a 5.01 ERA on the road though. The home side counters with Dane Dunning, who is 2-6 with a 4.04 ERA. He's 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the road, but 2-1 with a 2.99 ERA at home. Look for home field to play a big advantage for Dunning here. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play here is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with the Rangers on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Yes, the Yankees are in desperate need of a victory here after losing 8 of their last 10 games, including the opener here yesterday by a score of 3-2 in exrta innings. New York though is still 71-52 and in the drivers seat in the AL East. Boston fans could care less about the Yanks' issues, as they enter at 56-58, and needing desperately to continue to string some wins together. These starting pitchers are evenly matched. Frankie Montas is 4-9 with a 3.18 ERA for the Yankees this year, while Karl Crawford is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA for the Red Sox. Let's call these guys a "wash." The oddsmakers continue to give New York too much respect here though considering its form, and especially here on the road. I expect a similar type of game as what we saw on Friday, so let's lay the reasonable price for the Red Sox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Jets -1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Jets. Both teams are expected to improve this year, but this is a good strategic play on New YOrk. Zach Wilson is going to see more time under center than his counterpart Jalen Hurts today. The Jets have plenty of new receivers, so Wilson will get a few snaps. Sirianni is going to be much more conservative with his veteran laden team. Joe Flacco will also see a lot of action under center for New York, and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the points, the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Browns v. Jaguars -1.5 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Jaguars. Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 preseason games, but after so much offseason turmoil and uncertainty coming into the year, I'm expecting Cleveland to struggle to start this season overall. Doug Pederson is hoping to change things around quickly in Jacksonville as well after the stench from Urban Meyer last season. The Jags are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 preseason games, but I think they have the advantage here at home, and also having already played in The Hall Of Fame Game. Trevor Lawrence is going to do much better under Pederson, and the addition of Travis Etienne in the backfield is huge. The Browns have so many off-field distractions still going on, I can't see how they focus here at all; lay the short points, the play is the Jags! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Falcons v. Lions +1 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Lions. Dating back to 2016, the Falcons are the NFL's worst preseason team, going 2-16 SU and 1-17 ATS. Marcus Mariota is now the starting QB in Atlanta. The Lions haven't been much better, going just 1-12 SU their last 13 preseason contests. I like the energy that Dan Campbell brings to this Lions team and I expect him to take this 2022 preseason very seriously. Both teams are rebuilding, but Detroit has more pieces in place. This one MEANS more to the Lions; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I played the Orioles on the "runline" last night in their 6-5 outright home victory over Toronto, and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Boston has lost 4 straight and has many issues across the board. The Orioles 58-52 and I give them a BIG nod on the bump tonight. Dean Kremer is 4-3 with a 3.43 ERA for the Orioles, while Josh Winckowksi is just 5-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the Red Sox (he's just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.29 ERA in all home games as well.) The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the very real momentum that Baltimore has created for itself right now and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Giants -1.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 50 m | Show |
10* GIANTS (GOW) Many feel that with Saquon Barkley back and healthy this year, and with the coaching change in New York, that the Giants will be able to exceed their season win total of 7.5. Others think they could even compete for the NFC East title, with the Cowboys possibly taking a step back again this year. The Patriots did better than expected last year. Mac Jones did better than expected last year. The Pats will turn to Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe in this one though. Although this is just a preseason game, it's still intereting to note that the Giants are 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series. New England does take the preseason seriously, but I still feel this one "means" so much more to Brian Daboll and his new staff. They have to hit the ground running. And he'll be more prepared now to face his former boss as well. Everything points to a comfortable win and cover for the visitors, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (ROUT) After dropping the first 2 games of this series, I like the Marlins to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Because of that, the call here will be to grab the visitors on the "runline" option. Yesterday the Fish fell 4-3, rallying for 3 runs in eighth inning to secure the victory. Edward Cabrera is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Marlins. He most recently tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Cubs last Friday, walking 3 and striking out 8. Kyle Gibson is 7-4 with a 4.36 ERA for the Phillies. He's coming off a strong outing as well, allowing 1 run over 8 innings in a win over the Nationals. With Philadelphia looking ahead to a tough series starting at the Mets tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught flat-footed here. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona has taken the first 2 games of this series, but I'm expecting the Pirates to bounce back in the finale. Conversely, after 3 straight wins, I'm expecting a predictable "letdown" here from the Diamondbacks (note that Arizona is just 2-7 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight wins in a row.) More than anything though, I really do feel that this starting pitching matchup is more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to make us think. The visitors hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA. He's coming off a gem, allowing 1 run over 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Orioles on Friday. Keller has now posted a minuscule 1.74 ERA over his past 5 trips to the hill spanning 31 frames of work. The home side sees Madison Bumgarner toe the slab, and he's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. He's coming off a "dud," getting shelled for 5 runs off 10 hits over 5 innings vs. the Rockies on Firday. Look for Keller to be the difference here and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) What Justin Verlander is doing this season is incredible. Regression is imminent though at some point, and today is the day in my estimation! It's impossible to find any faults in Verlander's game this year, as he's 15-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Rangers went 2-2 against Cleveland over the weekend, but won the opener here 7-5 yesterday. The Rangers and Glenn Otto are going to hang tough again here on Wednesday as well. Otto is 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA. He's slowly been regaining his form since returning from COVID, and he's 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Astros this year. Some minor regression from Verlander, combined with some minor improvement from Otto sees this one being decided late, or even in extras; and because of that, the play is indeed Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox +1.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
8* RED SOX RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) This is a mini 2-game interleague series. Off yesterday's 9-6 loss, I think that Boston will bounce back here and at the very least, earn the comfortable "cover" on the runline option. Kyle Wright is 13-5 with a 3.22 ERA for the Braves and while he went 4-0 in five starts in July with a 2.64 ERA, he got rocked in his first start in August for 6 runs off 7 hits over 6 innings in a 6-4 loss to the Mets on Thursday (matched a season high for runs, while allowing 4 home runs, the most he's ever conceded in a single start.) That doesn't bode well for Wright heading to Boston, as he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Pivetta went 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA in 5 starts in July, but he looked a lot better in his first start in August, conceding 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. I expect Wright and the Braves to bring the best out of Pivetta here at home, who will look to build off his last solid performance. The outright is possible, but great value here with the Red Sox on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (GOW) Once again I think the Blue Jays are getting too much respect on the road here. They went 2-2 in Minnesota over the weekend, but after yesterday's 3-2 victory, I think they'll struggle here vs. the surging Orioles. Baltimore had won five in a row before an 8-1 loss to Pittsburgh yesterday. The Orioles are 31-21 at home, while the Jays are 26-27 on the road. Jordan Lyles is 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA for the Orioles, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Jays. Each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but note that Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA on the road, compared to 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA at home. Lyles on the other hand is 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA on the road, and 3-2 witha 2.71 ERA at home. While I do think an outright win isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's getting too much respect here on the road. This is the finale of a 4-game set and so far KC is 2-1 after winning here by a score of 5-4. The loss drops Boston to 54-54 on the season. Ultimately though, I feel these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. Kutter Krawford is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Red Sox, while Brad Keller is 5-12 with a 4.61 ERA for the Royals. Rookie Nick Pratto hit a walk-off hone run with 2 outs in the 9th to give the Royals the win last night and all signs point to that momentum getting carried over here. Keller is coming off his worst outing of the year, allowing 8 runs over 6 innings to the White Sox on Tuesday, but he owns a much sharper 3.57 ERA at home, compared to just 5.75 on the road. Keller comes in off a decent outing, allowing 1 run over 6 innings, but he's alternated wins and losses all season. I like Keller to bounce back here at home; the play is Kansas City on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
8* TWINS RUNLINE (SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I had a play on Minnesota on the runline option last night and the Twins wouldn't even need the extra 1.5 runs in their outright 7-3 victory. This is the finale of the 4 game series, and the Twins have won the last 2 games and once again I believe they're not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. The Jays are good, but their achilles heel is their play on the road where they're a pedestrian 25-27. The Twins on the other hand are now 31-24 at home. Kevin Gausman is 8-8 with a 3.06 ERA for the Jays, while Chris Archer is 2-5 with a 4.05 ERA for Minnesota. Guasman is coming off his best start of the year, going 8 scoreless and striking out 10 in a win over the Rays. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?! Note that he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Twins as well. Archer won't be lacking for motivation here, as he hasn't won in 4 starts. He's coming off a hard-luck no-decision vs. Detroit, allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 8. The outright win is possible here, but the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | 4-2 | Win | 113 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
8* REDS RUNLINE (ANNIHILATION) The Brewers really need a win and they have their "ace" on the mound, but they're playing super poorly right now and I think they're way overpriced today. And that really does swing value here onto the Reds on the runline option. The Reds have won 4 of their last 6 after yesterday's 7-5 win here, while Milwaukee has now dropped 5 of its last 6. Graham Ashcraft is 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and he enters with a ton of confidence after his best start of his career, going 8 1/3's inning in a 2-1 win over the Marilns on Tuesday, allowing 0 runs off 5 hits, striking out 3 and walking none in the unfortunate no-decision. Corbin Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.49 ERA for the Brewers, but he comes in off a pedestrian outing, allowing 4 runs and 5 walks over 5 innings in a loss to the lowly Pirates on Tuesday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going with the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Rays v. Tigers +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Detroit bounced back from 3 straight losses with a 9-1 win here yesterday. I think the Tigers build off that victory with another big effort here. Conversely, after 3 straight victories, the Rays finally had a letdown yesterday, and with a day off before a much tougher 2-game mini interleague series at Milwaukee, followed by series vs. the Orioles and Yankees, everything points to the visitors getting caught "looking ahead" here. Drew Rasmussen is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA for Tampa Bay, while Matt Manning is 0-0 with a 3.46 ERA for the Tigers after 13 innings of work. "For the first time back since early in the season, it felt pretty good," Manning said after returning from injury. "There's nothing like playing some big league baseball." Manning comes in fresh here and I like him to match Rasmussen, who has been solid and is off a hard-luck loss. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
8* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Cleveland enters off a 4-1 win over Houston on Saturday and I'm expecting it to carry that momentum over here in the finale of this 4 game series. The Astros took the first 2 games. Houston has a night off after this before returning home to face the Rangers and I believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Cleveland's played much better at home this year (27-22) and Astros' starter Christian Javier and Guardians' starter Triston McKenzie are evenly matched. Javier is 6-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while McKenzie is 7-8 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Both have struggled somewhat of late, but the slight nod here goes to McKenzie on his home field. In a contest that I see being decided late or in extras, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Mets | 2-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
5* BRAVES RUNLINE (BIG-CHALK) I play totals. I play underdogs. I play half times and prop wagers. I also play favorites, especially in certain situations like this. In a contest that could be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the second game of this double-header. Max Fried is 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA for the Braves, while Max Scherzer is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." The Mets opened with 6-4 win in the series opener, but Atlanta bounced back with a 9-6 victory last night. Two of the heavyweights in the National League facing off here in the Big Apple and I'm looking for the defending champs to deliver; the play is Atlanta on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
8* TWINS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT) Toronto's Achilles Heel this season has been its play on the road this year, as after yesterday's 6-5 loss here, it's now 25-26 away from friendly confines. The Twins' strength this season has been their play at home, now 30-24 in Minnesota after yesterday's victory. Mitch White is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA, but he's making his first start for Toronto since coming over from the Dodgers in a trade and I think he'll predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. Dylan Bundy is 6-5 with a 5.04 ERA for the Twins. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings vs. the Padres in his last outing and he's 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the Jays. Minnesota has everything in place to win this contest outright, but the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (AL GOM) Cleveland had won 4 of 5 heading into its series against Houston, but it's dropped the first 2 games of this series. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the revenge-minded home side on the runline option here. Cleveland is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge 2 straight home losses against an opponent. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab, and he's 8-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He's lost 2 straight, most recently allowing 4 runs over 5 innings in a 5-3 setback at Oakland, before conceding 3 runs to the Red Sox on Monday. Cal Quantrill counters for the home side. He's 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA. He's been hit or miss of late as well, but he has a 3.95 ERA in four lifetime appearances vs. the Astros, and I expect him to, at the very least, match Garcia inning for inning. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-05-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but I like their chances here on the road in Seattle in the opener of this series. Last night LA hit 7 solo home runs and lost 8-7 at home to Oakland. The Mariners return home from a 7 game road trip. After taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks, I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here. I'm calling these starters a "wash." Seattle goes with Robbie Ray, who is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA, while LA counters with Patrick Sandoval, who is 3-7 with a 3.61 ERA. Each has enjoyed considerable success off his opponent tonight in the past. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* ROYALS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Boston's 3-game win streak came to an end in its 6-1 loss at Houston yesterday. The Red Sox are going to have their hands full on the road again in my opinion with a Royals team looking to rebound off a 1-2 series loss at the White Sox. Boston sees Nick Pivetta toe the slab, and he's 8-8 with a 4.47 ERA, while the Royals counter with Kris Bubic, who is 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA. Bubic though has looked better of late, allowing 5 runs over his last 20 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking just 5. Pivetta hasn't won since June 24th. I give the slight nod to Bubic at home in this matchup. Great value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is KC on the runline option! AAA Sports |