Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-22 | Wizards +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Wizards (NON-DIV GOM) I think this is a great spot for the Wizards. Washington plays with revenge after losing to Boston 112-94 on October 30th. With a game at home against the Wolves tomorrow, the Wizards can't look past the mighty Celtics tonight. Boston is off a 122-104 win over Sacramento, but it could come in complacent here with a game at home tomorrow against Charlotte. The Wizards have lost five straight against-the-spread, but note that Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. No outright, but much closer than expected; grab the points, the play is the Wizards! AAA Sports |
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11-27-22 | Chargers v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (ASSASSIN) Both teams NEED a win here. This is a crucial week for both the Chargers and the Cardinals, but I can't overstate how important I believe that the home field factor will be for Arizona this week. That hasn't been the case so far to this point, as the Chargers are 5-0 ATS on the road, and the Cards are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS at home. Look for these lop-sided numbers to normalize over the second half of the season though. LA enters having lost three of its last four and despite probably having the better QB in Justin Herbert on the field, I just don't trust this LA team on the road. Cards' coach Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat, likely needing a win here to keep his job. Kyler Murray has missed the last two weeks, but he returns now this weekend. I think the pivot will be a difference-maker this weekend. The majority of the money is on LA here, but I look for this underachieving Cardinals team to dip deep and deliver at home; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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11-26-22 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 56-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (SEC GOW) Tennessee can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at 9-2 on the final game of the year, but I do expect the Vols to do just that in the second half. Will 5-6 Vanderbilt pull off the epic upset and win this game outright? Highly unlikely, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. The Vols come in off a crippling 63-38 loss at South Carolina. The Commodores actually pulled off a similar upset last week, beating Florida 31-24 at home as a 13.5-point underdog. Now here on Senior Night and the final game of the season, I'm expecting Vanderbilt to put up another fight until the end here as well; grab the points, the play is the Commodores! AAA Sports |
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11-26-22 | Iowa v. TCU +6 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* TCU (TOURNEY GOW) This is part of the Emerald Coast Classic in Niceville, Florida. Iowa is 5-0 thi syear after beating Clemson 74-71 last time out. So far the Hawkeyes are averaging 96 PPG, while conceding 65. Kris Murray leads the nightly charge with 23.8 points and eight rebounds per game. TCU is 4-1 after beating Cal 59-48 last time out. The Horned Frogs went on to force 19 turnovers in the victory. So far they're averaging 77 PPG, while allowing 65.5. Mike Miles Jr. leads TCU with 20.5 PPG on average. Iowa let a big lead slip away late against Clemson, and almost stumbled last time out. Look for the Horned Frogs aggressive defensive play to be the difference maker here; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | North Dakota State v. Northern Colorado +2.5 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Northern Colorado (MAULING) We have a couple of 1-4 teams going head-to-head here, but I believe this is a contest that favors the visiting side. North Dakota State is coming off its first win of the year, albeit over Crown College. UNC lost to CO Christian in its last outing. Northern Colorado matches up well with North Dakota State. Also, the Bears have hit 69 or or more points in three of their last four games. UNC is the more motivated side and I expect it to pull away for a comfortable win/cover; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | Bulls v. Thunder +2 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City. Chicago is coming off a 118-113 win over the Bucks on Wednesday. I had the Bulls in that one. However, I expect the visiting side to come out flat here vs. this determined OKC team, that's off a 131-126 OT loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Chicago's room for error is very slim most nights, averaging 111.5 PPG, and conceding 111.4 (note that the Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball while Goran Dragic and Kostas Antetokounmpo are listed as day-to-day.) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a double-double with 31 points and 11 assists in a losing cause for the Thunder last time out. OKC averages 115.9 PPG, while allowing 118.3. Chicago has tough upcoming games at the Suns and the Warriors to look ahead to here. Neither team has shown a lot of consistency from game-to-game, but I love the way this one sets up for the home side; the play is the Thunder! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Blue Jackets PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Islanders are off a 3-0 home win over Edmonton on Wednesday, but they're just 6-5 on the road this year. With a home game against Philly tomorrow night, I say New York gets caught "looking ahead." Columbus has been trading good efforts with poor ones of late. The Blue Jackets are off a 3-1 home loss to Montrral, two nights after beating Florida by a score of 5-3 on the road. The Jackets play with revenge here as well after falling 4-3 at New York earlier in the season; a great price for the extra 1.5 goals, the play is the Jackets on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10* MISSOURI (SEC GOM) At this time of year, we have to be cerebral with our wagers. This is a great "situational" wager, and that, along with a couple of strong trends that support my position, is what I'm basing this selection on. Arkansas just became bowl eligible in last week's 42-27 win over Ole Miss as a one-point underdog. After that emotional win on "Seniors Night," I'm expecting a predictable letdown here. The Razorbacks average 31 PPG, while the 5-6 Missouri Tigers average 25.2 Missouri kept its bowl hopes alive in last week's 45-14 destruction of New Mexico State. The Tigers have an opportunity to become bowl eligibleon Senior Night themselves, while at the same time avenging a 34-17 loss to Arkansas last season; the outright is clearly possible, but grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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11-24-22 | Fresno State +4.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Fresno State is 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU/ATS. The Bulldogs are averaging 58.4 PPG, while allowing 61.4 Isaih Moore is averaging 12.8 points and 6.8 boards for Fresno State. The Commodores are averaging 70 PPG, while allowing 66.5. Jordan Wright leads the nightly charge for Vanderbilt by averaging 11.3 points and 3.8 assists per game. This is the consolation game in the Wooden Legacy tournament and I think the Bulldogs are primed for a breakout performance here. On the flip-side, I think this has been a big disappointment for Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores. Both teams are coming off tight losses. I'll caution reading too much into their respective offensive and defensive numbers so early. I think the Bulldogs superior defense though will "win the day" here; that said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (ASSASSIN) The big news surrounding this game is that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has been rumoured about taking the job at Auburn as early as this Friday. He's denied those rumors, but this is just a big circus now for Mississippi, a distraction that I think Mississippi State can take advantage of. Ole Miss is 8-3, but it's not playing its best football of the season right now either having lost three of its last four. That includes a 42-27 loss at Arkansas as a 1-point favorite last week. I think Mike Leach and the Bulldogs can take advantage. Mississippi State is 7-4. It's off a 56-7 win over East Tennessee State as a 39-point favorite. It averages 33.5 points per game. Will Rogers is having another solid year, and that doesn't bode well for a Rebels secondary that allows a lot underneath stuff and which is actually ranked 111th in the country in opponent completion percentage and 95th in opponent QB passer rating. The Bulldogs on the other hand have steadily improved defensively throughout the season, as they now rank 14th in the country in takeaways. I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE! AAA Sports |
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11-23-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Bulls (ASSASSIN) I think this is a great situational wager on the Bulls here. They'd lost four straight, but then they dug deep and posted a quality 121-107 home win over Boston as a 5.5-point favorite in their most recent outing. That was crucial, because it set the tone for this now six-game road trip starting here in Milwaukee to face the Bucks for the first time this season. But this is another important game, to set the tone in the first outing on this trip. Milwaukee is great, it's 12-4 and off a 119-111 home win over Portland. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one means so much more to the Bulls. They're off the solid win and need to set the tone for the rest of this roadtrip right here and now agains the No. 1 team in the East; grab the points, the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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11-22-22 | Lakers +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* Lakers (PACIFIC GAME OF MONTH) The Lakers have been playing a lot better of late, winners of three straight. This is the first game of the year they've played against the Suns. I think LA is still being undervalued here. The Lakers have two straight in San Antonio after this, but I expect the visiting side to take this game very seriously. A quality victory here, with a chance to sweep in San Antonio would then see the Lakers as one of the hottest teams in the league. But one game at a time. The Suns are 10-6. They're coming off a 116-95 win over the Knicks. If we just look at these team's seasonal averages to this point, then the obvious choice here would be to grab the Suns. But the season is a dynamic/fluid one, and things change. The Lakers are a better team now than at the start of the year and I expect them to come out swinging with their best shot tonight; grab the points the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +6.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (MAC GOW) Ohio has its sights set on the Conference title game, and I think could stumble here with the finish line in sight. Bowling Green became eligible last week at 6-5 after beating Toledo 42-35 as a 15-point underdog. The Green Falcons did it on the road as well. Ohio is off the 32-18 win at Ball State. Ohio is the better team, but Bowling Green comes in with a lot of momentum. I think this is a factor that the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here in this one tonight. While the outright is possible, I'm going to suggest to grab as many points as you can; the play is Bowling Green! AAA Sports |
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11-21-22 | Celtics v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* BULLS (GOW) Here's a perfect spot for Chicago to avenge an earlier loss to the Celtics. Chicago is off a 108-107 home loss to Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite. The Bulls will be risking life and limb to try and snap a four-game slide tonight, especially with a very tough six-game road trip that starts on Wednesday in Milwaukee. Boston is 13-3. It's off a 117-109 road win at New Orleans. But with a night off after this, followed by a very favorable six-game home-stand, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the visiting side in my opinion; the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the Bulls! AAA Sports |
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11-21-22 | Rhode Island +10 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (NON-CONF GOW) These teams are closing out the first round of the Cayman Islands Classic on Monday night. Rhode Island is 1-2, and it's coming off its first win of the season in 74-64 victory over Stonehill. K-State is 3-0, most recently handling Kansas City by a score of 69-53. Rhode Island has some talent in players like Abdou Samb, averaging over ten points per game in the early going. The Cougars are only allowing 55.3 PPG, which is the lowest in the country so far, but that's been in part due to the level of competition it's faced. Markquis Nowell averages 3.3 steals per game for the Wildcats. Rhode Island isn't going to win this game, but I expect the Rams to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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11-20-22 | Spurs v. Lakers -7 | Top | 92-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* Lakers (ATS BLOOD-BATH) I think this is a good spot for LA. The Lakers are just 4-10, which includes going 4-5 at home. They're off back-to-back home victories, taking down the Nets 116-103 and the Pistons 128-121. San Antonio is just 6-11 and it's coming off a 119-97 loss here just last night to the Clipper. Fatigue's an issue for the Spurs at this point of the season. They'll get caught looking ahead here to two nights off before a home game against the Pelicans. The Lakers can take advantage and I believe they will; lay the points, the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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11-20-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Nebraska -20 | Top | 58-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (BLOWOUT BOB) For a number of different reasons I expect Nebraska to blowout Arkansas-Pine Bluff this afternoon. The Golden Lions are 1-5. They average 65 PPG. They're off a 67-58 loss at Cleveland State. Nebraska is now 2-1 after a 70-50 loss at St. John's as a 9.5-point underdog. The Huskers average 68 PPG. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS win. Nebraska on the other hand is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. teams with losing road records. Look for the Huskers to bounce back here in this favorable spot, as I expect the Golden Lions offense to struggle here; lay the points, the play is Nebraska! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Blazers (ASSASSIN) As primarily a situational handicapper, this is type of "situation" that I am constantly looking out for. Here's a great play against Utah, which moved to 11-6 after last night's tight 134-133 home win over the Suns. Utah opened as a 2.5-point dog, and closed as a 1-point favorite. The Jazz though had lost three straight coming into that one, and they also played with revenge after an earlier setback to Phoenix. But now Utah comes to Portland fatigued on the second game of the back-to-back. Portland is 10-5 after a 109-107 home loss to Brooklyn as a 2.5-point favorite. With a tough four-game Eastern swing starting at Milwaukee on Monday, the Blazers will be looking to take advantage of familiar surroundings tonight. Look for the Blazers to bounce back and to take advantage of this "tired" Jazz side; lay the short points! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | San Jose State v. Utah State +2.5 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
10* Utah State (MW GOY) San Jose State is 6-3. It's eligible. It's coming off a 43-27 lss at SDSU. The Spartans average 27.1 PPG. They have a much "easier" game at home to end the season against Hawaii next weekend. Utah State is 5-5. It averages 22.1 PPG. It's coming off a much-needed 41-34 win at Hawaii last weekend. With a game at conference leading Boise State to end the season, this becomes a "must win" for Utah State if it hopes to go "Bowling." It's a great situational play here. Utah State will carry over its offensive momentum from last week and while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | Bryant v. Florida International +3 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* FIU (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Both teams are 2-1. Bryant is averaging 77.5 PPG and allowing 44.5. The Bulldogs competition to this point has to be called into question though. FIU has so far averaged 82 PPG, while allowing 82.3. The Bulldogs just got crushed by FAU on the road though. One of their two wins was against a division 2 opponent. FIU is definitely not as good as FAU, but the Golden Panthers are shooting the ball well right now, and I expect that to be a difference-maker here at home; grab the points, the play is Florida International! AAA Sports |
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11-18-22 | Lafayette v. Maryland-Baltimore County -1 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10* UMBC (LATE INFO PLAY) These are two bad teams, but this is a matchup that I believe favors UMBC. Lafayette is 0-3 and UMBC is 1-2. The Leopards are off a 63-59 loss to Saint Joseph's. CJ Fulton is the leading scorer with an average of 13.3 PPG. Overall Lafeyette averages 60.3 PPG. The Retreivers are off a 94-64 loss to Princeton. Colton Lawrence leads the nightly charge for UMBC by averaging 14.7 points per game. UMBC is averaging 74.3 PPG. The Retreivers are also 5-1 ATS their last six at home. The Leopards are overvalued here on the road and getting too much respect from bettors after starting the season 3-0 ATS. Look for UMBC to take care of business here; lay the short points! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
10* PACKERS (GOW) I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers turned a corner in last week's 31-28 OT win at home over Dallas. Now 4-6 and in second in the NFC North, I believe Rodgers is the correct call here on the short wek at home. The Titans are off the 17-10 home win over Denver, but after eight straight ATS covers, I say Tennessee is getting too much respect here now on the road vs. the desperate home side. Green Bay's defense is underrated as well, allwoing 21.6 points and 320.3 YPG. I think Green Bay is the correct call here; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Tulane (ASSASSIN) SMU is 6-4 and Tulane is now 8-2 after falling 38-31 to UCF last week. Tulane does still have a shot at a New Year's Six bowl, so there's still lots on the line for Tulane this weekend as well. SMU has reeled off three straight wins. Its offense has looked great in the victories, scoring 163 points, which included a 77-63 win over Houston two weeks ago. And then last week's 41-23 victory at home over USF as well. But this would appear to be a classic trap or letdown spot after becoming bowl eligible last weekend. The SMU offense has been great, but the defense has been terrible. Tulane is tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC ahead of their meeting next weekend. The Wave simply can't afford to look past their opponent today. The big question here is if this normally stout Tulane defense can bounce back after last weekend's atypical performance. This hasn't been a great spot for SMU bettors, as the Mustangs are just 1-3 against the spread as an underdog this season (in fact SMU has lost all four games outright as an underdog as well this year.) UCF's defense is a lot better than SMU's. The Green Wave have a balanced offense, which includes a top 40 red zone touchdown percentage. This is a much better matchup for Tulane's defense this week. It's also a better matchup for its offense. SMU's defense is just downright terrible, it simply can't stop anyone. And yes, SMU's offense has looked great over the last three games, but the three defenses it's faced in those victories are all outside the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball; I expect the Green Wave to get back on track in this favorable matchup, so lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-16-22 | Warriors +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Warriors (ASSASSIN) The defending champs have so far struggled with consistency, as they're 6-8 overall. They're coming off a much-needed 132-95 home win over the Spurs as nine-point favorites. I like to go against lop-sided trends and numbers, and so that's the case here for sure in this pick. I like the Warriors in this game for a couple reasons. The first being that if the Warriors have any hopes of repeating as champions this season, they're going to have to actually win a game on the road. This is now just ridiculous, as Golden State is actually 0-7 on the road. I say that string of futility comes to an end today. Suns' fans can empathize though, as Phoenix is 2-4 at home 6-1 at home this season. The Suns are off a tight 113-112 loss at Miami. Clearly they won't be looking past the Warriors today, but Golden State plays with the added incentive of "REVENGE" here today, as it lost 134-105 to the Suns in their most recent matchup on October 25th. The Warriors are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine when trying to avenge a straight-up and against the spread loss of 20 or more points. Phoenix averages 112.5 PPG. The Warriors are averaging 117.4; I'm grabbing the points and GOLDEN STATE in this one! AAA Sports |
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11-16-22 | Southern Indiana v. Notre Dame -14.5 | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (BLOOD-BATH) Southern Indiana is 1-1 and Notre Dame is 2-0. The Screaming Eagles are off an upset 71-53 home win over Southern Illinois as a ten-point underdog. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? It was a greart victory, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The Screaming Eagels are still ranked fourth in the weak Ohio Valley Conference. The Irish are off an 88-81 win over Youngstown State. ND has yet to cover a spread this season, but that's only helped in driving today's line a few points lower that it normally would/should be. I'm taking advantage. this is a total mismatch. Look for the Irish to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish; lay the points, the play is Notre Dame! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Dayton v. UNLV +5 | Top | 52-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNLV (BOB) Both teams are 2-0. Dayton beat SMU on Friday by a score of 74-62, while UNLV got the better of Incarnate Word by a score of 88-63. The Flyers didn't have their best outing, but still managed to win last time out: ''The thing that impressed me most was that they stayed poised,'' Dayton coach Anthony Grant said. ''This was a back-and-forth, highly contested game. I think we had at one point a 13-point lead in the second half that they erased. I think our guys understood what they needed to do. They didn't get rattled.” They only shot 30.8 percent from range in the victory. UNLV shot 55.4 percent overall in its latest win. But UNLV head coach Kevin Kruger was more impressed with the defensive effort: "I thought it was a really great effort defensively. Again, forcing 25 turnovers is what gets things going for us. I'm really proud and happy for them. We shot it well, shared the ball, got it in the paint, kicked it out, swung it, drove it - a lot of good plays for each other. We were able to get downhill and get to the free throw line, so that's going to have to be our M.O. offensively, just sharing it, driving and kicking, relocating, but all-in-all I thought it was a pretty good night for us." I think these teams are evenly matched for the most part and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points; the play is UNLV! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs -7 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Mavericks (ASSASSIN) The Clippers are 8-6 and the Mavericks are 7-5. LA is off a 122-106 win at Houston just last night, but I expect the Clippers to come in fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. LA only averages 105.2 PPG. Dallas averages 110.5. The Mavericks are coming off a 117-112 home win over Portland. Dallas has failed to cover the spread in nine straight games, but I expect this lop-sided trend to end here in this favorable matchup. Look for LA to pack up its tents and throw in the white flag early in this one; lay the points, the play is Dallas! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | Top | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ball State (MAC GOW) This is a big game for both teams. Ohio is 8-3, while Ball State needs one more win to become bowl eligible at 5-5. The Bobcats are 2-3 on the road and the Cardinals are 3-2 at home. Ball State fell 28-21 at Toledo last weekend, going on to cover with the large 13.5-point spread. Ohio earned the 27-21 win at Miami Ohio as a 2-point favorite. The Bobcats are tied with Toledo now for the conference lead, so they have their "eyes on the prize" as far as the conference championship is concerned. That said, this is Ball State's final home game of the year, before a tough final game at Miami Ohio next week to finish things off. This one sets up great for Ball State from a situtional stand-point. I do think the outright win is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is indeed on Ball State! AAA Sports |
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11-14-22 | Monmouth +27.5 v. Illinois | Top | 65-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Monmounth-NJ (UNDERDOG OF WEEK) Outright victory? Of course not. I just think the Illini will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow the Hawks the opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the sizeable spread that they've been afforded in this one. Illinois is off an 86 to 48 win over Kansas City as a 25.5-point favorite. But with a game at Maryland up next, followed by Texas, I say this is a bit of a look-ahead spot as well for the home side. Monmouth is 0-2. It fell 89-42 at Virginia last time out as a a 24.5-point underdog, but it matches up much better with Illinois. But as I said, no outright here, but the conditions are definitely right for a much tighter battle than what this spread would initially indicate; that flips the value to the undervalued underdog, so grab the points with Monmouth! AAA Sports |
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11-13-22 | Eastern Washington +6.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 51-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Eastern Washington (ASSASSIN) While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can here. Eastern Washington is 0-2 to open the season, so the Eagles will be super motivated here to try and snap the slide. THey lost 74-60 to a better Yale team last time out. Steele Venters led the way with 15 points for Eastern Washington. Hawaii is coming off a 72-54 home win over Mississippi Valley State, unable to cover the large 25.5-point spread. I think the Warriors are overvauled here again today vs. the Eagles as well, despite the much smaller point spread. Eastern Washington is 37-15-1 ATS in its last 53 road games and 23-3 ATS in its last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. In a contest that I seeing coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Eastern Washington! AAA Sports |
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11-13-22 | Chargers +7 v. 49ers | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
10* Chargers (UNDERDOG GOY) Everyone and their dog will be on San Francisco this weekend. The Chargers are 5-3 this year, including 3-1 on the road. The 49ers are 4-4, including 2-1 at home. LA is injured, but it managed to rally and hold on for a big win over an improved Falcons team. Winning in the NFL is hard. No matter who you play against. ATL has come a long way this season and so the fact that Justin Herbert was able to rally his team for the victory, with a depleted receiving corps is impressive to me. The Chargers are right behind KC at 6-2 for the division lead. Yes, San Francisco comes out of its bye week healthier now than it's been in a long time, but chemistry is still an issue on offense, despite the talent it has. The Chargers have a tough game at home against Kansas City next week. Theyll be an underdog at home in that one. This is a game that the Chargers can't look past. San Fran though? It has a divisional game as well next weekend, but it's across the pond in England against the Cardinals. I say this one comes down to whichever team has it hands on the ball last; grab the points, the play is the Chargers! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Blazers v. Mavs -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* Mavericks (ASSASSIN) The Blazers are 9-3, while the Mavericks are 6-5. The Blazers are off a 106-95 outright road win at New Orleans as nine-point underdogs, but I think they'll finally stumble here on Saturday in this difficult road venue. After this the Blazers have two nights off, followed by two home games vs. the Spurs and Nets, so this sets up as a natural "look ahead" position for the visiting side. Dallas is off a disappointing 113-105 road loss in the nation's capital as a 6-point favorite, but note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was favored. This is a stretch of five straight home games for the Mavericks, and I expect an "all hands on deck" performance here to open it up; lay the points, the play is indeed on Dallas! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Illinois State -5.5 v. Northwestern State | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Illinois State (BLOOD-BATH) The Redbirds are 1-1, including 1-0 on the road. They're 0-2 ATS, but I expect them to not only win today, but to do so by a sizeable margin. Overall Illinois State is averaging 61 PPG, while allowing 60. Luke Kasuble is the man to keep your eyes on tonight, he's so far averaging 16 points. Nortwestern State is 1-1, and 1-0 at home. The Demons are averaging 64 points and allowing 63. Isaac Haney leads the way with 17.5 opints and seven boards. The Redbirds are better defensively in the early going, and I think they matchup well here. Look for Illinois State to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UNT is now bowl eligible after crushing FIU by a score of 52-14 at home last weekend. While 4-1 at home though, the Mean Green are just 2-3 on the road. UAB is 4-5 and it needs two more wins to become eligible, with three games remaining. Last weekend it lost 44-38 at home to UTSA in OT. The Blazers though are 4-1 at home and I'm expecting them to bounce back here. Note that UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS home win of 30 or more points. Look for UNT to suffer a classic mental "letdown" here after last week's bowl-eligibility clinching victory, and expect UAB to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish! AAA Sports |
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11-11-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Wolves (ASSASSIN) I think an outright victory is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Minnesota is now just 5-7 after its 129-117 home loss to Phoenix. This is the opener of a difficult four-game road trip for the Wolves, so it's all hands on deck for Minnesota tonight. The Grizzlies are 8-4 after their 124-122 OT win at San Antonio on Wednesday. The Grizz hit the road for a two-game road trip starting on Sunday. I think the road is a good place for the underachieving Wolves right now after they just went 1-3 at home. Look for Minnesota to fight and scrap and claw its way to, at the very least, a comfortable ATS cover; grab the play, the play is the Wolves! AAA Sports |
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11-11-22 | Houston v. St. Joe's +22.5 | Top | 81-55 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10* Saint Joseph's (BEST OF BEST) The Houston Cougars are 1-0 oafter an 83-36 win over Northern Colorado. While that was a "cake walk," I expect the Hawks to put up more of a fight here. This is Saint Joseph's first game of the season, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up. Houston utterly blew out UNC, with Marcus Sasser leading the way with 21 points. Last year Houston finished with a 26-5 regular season record and it averaged 75.8 PPG. The Hawks finished 11-19 overall last year. They averaged 67.6 PPG. Ejike Obinna is 6 foot 10 and he averaged 12.1 points and 7.9 boards per game last season. He'll play a bigger role this year. The Cougars are going to move to 2-0 after this game, but this is WAY too many points to be giving up to what I predict will be a slightly improved Saint Joseph's team this season; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Predators +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Nashville puckline (BLOOD-BATH) I base my picks on many different things. I think the hungry Predators offer up great value here on the puckline from a situational stand-point. The Predators were coming off B2B road wins, before falling 5-1 at Seattle on Tuesday. They catch the defending champs at a good time though, as Colorado returns home after a stint in Europe. The Avs beat Columbus in two games, but they've been off since November 5th. I expect this extra time off to throw a "monkey wrench" into the chemistry. Rest will lead to "rust" and Nashville will, at the very least, earn a solid ATS pucklne cover! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Panthers (ASSASSIN) In a contest that I see being decided by whichever side has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Carolina is just 2-7, while Atlanta is slightly better at 4-5. ATL is just 1-3 on the road, most recently falling 20-17 to the Chargers on Sunday. The Panthers are off a 42-21 loss to a now red hot Bengals team. Atlanta comes in disappointed, as it had the lead going into the fourth-quarter in its last game, and now it has a quick turnaround here. ATL narrowly edged the Panthers in the first matchup less than two weeks ago, so the immediate revenge factor comes into play here for Carolina. The Falcons are 32nd against the pass, so that'll give PJ Walker some opportunties on his home field today. These teams are indeed evenly matched, but with the majority of the money on ATL, I'm going contrarian here today as well; grab the points, the play is Carolina! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Blazers v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Pelicans (EXPRESS) Portland is off a satisfying 105-95 win at Charlotte just last night, so I'm predicting a letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. New Orleans is off a game last night as well, winning 115-111 at Chicago. This Pelicans team averages 118.2 PPG, while the Blazers average just 109.4. Note as well the the Blazers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS road victory and then playing the second game of a B2B scenario. Look for New Orleans to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa +6.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (GOW) The Tigers are 4-5, and the Golden Hurricanes are 3-6. Tulsa will have to run the table to become eligible, while Memphis is now running out of time. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Tulsa has lost two in a row, most recently fall 27-13 to Tulane. Braylon Braxton had 146 passing yards and a TD. Last year Tulsa was in the same position, needing three wins to become eligible, and it did just that. Memphis comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. Most recently it was a heart-breaking 35-28 loss to UCF. Seth Henigan had 284 passing yards and a TD. But with a defense that is allowing 412 yards per game, I just don't trust the home side to cover this spread; grab thep points, the play is Tulsa! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | UMass Lowell v. Columbia +7 | Top | 89-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Columbia (NON-CONF GOM) UMass is 1-0 after its 108-43 destruction of Fisher College. Obviously, we have to take the victory with a "grain of salt." Columbia is 0-1 after a 75-35 loss to Rutgers as a 19-point underdog. It's difficult to get a firm read on either team at this point, but I'd say the best plan of action is not to "overreact" to either team's results after the first game. These team's offensive and defensive schemes are similar and in a contest that I see being decided in the final moments, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Columbia! AAA Sports |
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11-09-22 | Lakers +5 v. Clippers | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10* LAKERS (ATS BLOWOUT) I really like the way this one sets up for the much hungrier underdog here. Both teams have more questions than answers, but the Lakers have a lot of ground to make up. They're just 2-8. After two straight wins, they're off three straight losses, including twice to Utah and once to Cleveland. The "revenge factor" does come into play here though, as the Lakers lost here at "HOME" to the Clippers in the second game of the season by a score of 103-97. The Clippers have actually won three of their last four. They look a bit better of late, but they're still only averaging 103.8 points per game, which ranks 30th. I'm expecting another really tight game between these two teams. In fact, I think this is a game that the Lakers can win outright. The Clippers aren't scaring anyone these days. That said, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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11-09-22 | Kent State -2.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* KENT STATE (MAC GOY) Kent State is 3-6. It's 0-5 on the road. It's favored here, but will need to "run the table" to become eligible. One game at a time. Bowling Green is off a tight 13-9 win over Western Michigan last week, unable to cover the 5-point spread. The Falcons are now 5-4 with three games remaining. Bowling Green averages 24.9 PPG, while Kent State averages 27.4. The Golden Flashes are off a 27-20 home loss to Ball State. Marquez Coper has 1,013 rushing yards and and nine rushing TD's. Bowling Green was "lucky" to win last time out after turning the ball over three times. Kent State's offense will prove to be the difference-maker here; lay the points, the play is the Golden Flashes! AAA Sports |
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11-08-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Purdue -26 | Top | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* Purdue (ASSASSIN) In the story of David vs. Goliath, David somehow manages to kill the giant. In today's story though, Purdue (the Giant), will take no mercy in my estimation on lowly David (Milwaukee.) This is a talent discrepancy of epic proportions, and because of that I'll suggest a play on Purdue to cover the large spread. 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey will be a difficult matchup issue for the Panthers. Edey averaged 14.4 points and 7.7 boards in just 19 minutes last year. He'll be the focal point this season though. Milwaukee has a new coach in Bart Lundy and 13 new players. The Panthers are picked to finish No. 9 in the Horizon League. Milwaukee is off a satisfying win over the Milwaukee School of Engineering just last night, so expect a complete letdown here today vs. "Goliath." Lay the points, the play is Purdue! AAA Sports |
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11-07-22 | Lakers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-139 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Lakers (ASSASSIN) I think the overachieving Jazz have a classic letdown here. The Lakers come in desperate at 2-7, while the Jazz come in complacent at 8-3. Winning can lead to complacency, and losing leads to desperation. LA is off a 114-100 loss at home to the red hot Cavaliers just last night. Fatigue at this point of the season isn't really a concern. The Lakers do play with the immediate revenge factor though after Utah beat them 130-116 in LA last week. Utah is off a 110-102 win at the Clippers last night, and I believe this younger team will finally have a small letdown here. Especially considering that they hit the road for a tough three-game Eastern swing starting in Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a letdown/look-ahead spot which invariably = "trap game!" The outright win is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Lakers! AAA Sports |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Saints (BLOOD-BATH) Two teams in need of a win collide here on Monday night. A non-conference matchup, but it's one that I think favors the hungrier home side. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens are 5-3, and the Saints are 3-5. New Orleans can move into a three-way tie with Atlanta and Tampa Bay with a win today. Baltimore if off a 27-22 win over Tampa Bay as an underdog, but with its bye week after this, followed by several favorable games to end the season, including at home against Carolina, at Jacksonvillle and at home to Denver on the immediate horizon, I say this sets up as a natural "look ahead" spot. As I said earlier, clearly the outright is in the cards, but let's grab the points; the play is New Orleans! AAA Sports |
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11-07-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* PFW (NON-CONF GOW) I just think this is too many points for Juwan Howard's new team to cover. Yes, leading scorer and rebounder Hunter Dickinson is back again this season, but four of the other five starters are gone. The Wolverines are still ranked No. 22, but I expect some chemistry issues in the early going. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but the Mastadons return an experienced line-up which I think will do some damage here on the National stage. The Mastadons tied for the Horizon League regular season championship last year. They're the co-favorites this year with UNK. Jarred Godfrey was their top player last year, and he returns along with three other starters. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is PFW! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 39 m | Show |
10* Bucs (NFC GOY) Clearly, neither team can be happy with where it's at at the moment. The Rams are 3-4 and the Bucs are 3-5. LA lost a crucial game last week in a 31-14 setback to the Rams and I believe it'll have its hands full here now on the road against this desperate Bucs team. The Rams are in a competitive division, with Seattle leading the way at 5-3. Despite Tampa's recent struggles, it's fortunate to be in second place right now, behind 4-4 Atlanta for the NFC South lead. Injuries since training camp have been the main reason behind Tom Brady and the Bucs' issues this year. Both teams have struggled offensively, and been decent on the defensive end. Tampa's offensive line issues are for sure a problem, but the unit catches a break here facing this inconsistent rams defense. I say this one means so much more to Brady and the home side on so many different levels; it may not be pretty, but I look for Tampa to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (ASSASSIN) We've reached the point of the season where we can look at what teams have done over recent weeks, to help predict what we think will happen in the future. I base my picks on many different things. One factor that I always take into consideration is the "revenge" factor, especially when it comes to divisional matchups. Divisional matchups are always the most important, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here in both cases for the Cardinals. Arizona is now 3-5 after its 34-26 loss at Minnesota last weekend. Seattle is 5-3 after its 27-13 win over the Giants at home last weekend. Arizona does indeed play with revenge here after a 19-9 Week 6 loss in Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Seattle's been great, but it's overachieving. With a game against Tampa Bay in London next week, this sets up as an unfortunate look ahead spot for the Hawks' organization. I like Murray to settle down here at home and find a way to deliver; the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Nets v. Hornets +5.5 | Top | 98-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Hornets (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams comes in off of having played just last night. The Nets destoryed the Wizards by a score of 128-86, while the Hornets got crushed 130-99 at Memphis. It was a great bounce back win for Brooklyn, which really needed something positive at all to lean on with all of the off-court issues, but I'm still not convinced that KD and company have suddenly turned the corner here for good. This one smells of immediate return to the norm for this on again, off again Nets team, that will have to adjust without Kyrie Irving in the line-up. I like Gordon Hayward at home. The Nets are a terrible 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 when playing the second game of a B2B. Both teams are dealing with injuries, and the Hornets will get a lot better when Lonzo Ball and Terry Rozier return. Until then though, I'm expecting this one to come down to the wire; grab the points, the play is Charlotte! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* WASHINGTON (PAC 12 GOM) Both teams are 6-2. Oregon State is 2-1 on the road, while Washington is 5-0 at home. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field advantage is going to be in this contest though. This is an important game, as each team is 3-2 in conference play, so the loser almost assuredly will be out of the running for a PAC 12 title spot. The Beavers come in with momentum after three straight victories, but note that Oregon State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more straight victories ina row. Oregon State is led by Damien Martinez and a ground attack that averages 195 YPG. The defense is decent as well, conceding 22.8 PPG. Washington is off its bye as well. It beat Cal 28-21 last time out. Michael Penix Jr. had 374 yards passing and two TD's. Oregon State stumbled against USC and Utah and I expect the same thing to happen here on the road; lay the points, the play is the Huskies! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Pistons (ASSASSIN) I like the way this one sets up for the Pistons. Cleveland is off a 114-113 upset OT home win over the Celtics, and it now hits the road for five straight. After this game in Detroit though it hits the West coast for games against the Lakers, Clippers, Kings and Warriors. Can anyone say "look-ahead" spot for this young and overachieving Cavs team? Listen, Donovan Mitchell is a great player, but the Pistons won't be going down without a fight here. Detroit is off back-to-back losses in Milwaukee. They lost 116-91 on Wednesday, but previous to that fell 110-108 as a 13.5-point underdog. I think the Pistons catch Cleveland here at the right tie, as I expect the Cavs to be already planning for their road-trip. While the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with the Pistons! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Texans (ASSASSIN) We've had some pretty terrible Thursday night matchups so far this season, so I'm a little unsure what to think about this one. On one hand the Eagles have been phenomenal, as they come in at 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. And then we have the Houston Texans, who no one predicted would do anything this year, and everyone was right, as they're just 1-5-1 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. The Texans though have been competitive most weeks at least for bettors, and I think that'll be the case again this week. Now of course Philadelphia can't afford to take the foot off the gas, but off the 35-13 home win over Pittsburgh on the short week, I think a small mental letdown isn't out of the realm of possibility for Philly here; especialy with a bye week next week, followed by a game at home against Washignton. I think Davis Mills will have some opportunities in the second half, as I just cant see Philadelphia running the score up in this one. The Eagles will be happy running the ball throughout here, as the Texans are 31st against the run on the defensive side. This is too many points to be giving up on the road on the national stage; no outright, but closer than expected, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Leafs puckline (EAST-CONF GOM) I expect Toronto to not only win tonight, but to do so by a sizeable margin. Philadelphia is 5-2-2, and Toronto is 4-4-2. The Flyers are 8-1 on the puckline this year though, while the Leafs are 1-9 on the puckline. The law of averages is flawed in many ways, but I've always felt that lop-sided numbers have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, the mid and the long-term. More than anything though, this is a great situational play. The Flyers come in here dog tired after their 1-0 OT loss at New York just last night. Toronto has had a couple nights off after a 4-3 OT loss at Anaheim. The Leafs have a tough stretch of upcoming games here: Boston, Carolina, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Pittsburgh and New Jersey after this. So far the Leafs have disappointed on the offensive end, but the overall situation here points finally to a lop-sided blowout here for Toronto; the play is the Leafs on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Wizards +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Wizards (ASSASSIN) I think this is a fantastic spot for Washington. Outright win? Possible, but this one will be close in my opinion. These teams just played in Washington on Halloween and the 76ers won 118-111. Washington plays with revenge, and it's lost three straight ATS, which is significant to note here as the Wiz are actually 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. Washington plays tough defensively, as opponent are shooting 43.5 percent against them, which is fourth best in the NBA. They're not going to make it easy on the home side. I expect a small mental letdown here. Joel Embiid was out in the last game, and he'll be out again here. Look for Washington to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Phillies (GOW) Philadelphia did what it set out to do over the first two games in Houston, and that was to earn a "split." The Phillies have enjoyed a home field advantage throughout the Playoffs, and I believe they'll ride the wave of emotion to another big victory here in Game 3 as well. The weather postponed yesterday's game and we have a new starter going for the home side. I say the overall situation favors the home side. Ranger Suarez goes for Philly, and he finished 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in the regular season, and he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. will go again for Houston, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in the regular season and he's 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home, and now the Astros are going to get a little taste of the craziness here at home; while I do think the outright is possible, I also believe we're getting unreal value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are coming off a 35-17 win over the Falcons last week, posting 537 yards of offense, while limiting ATL to just 214. Cleveland though comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide, most recently falling 23-20 to the Ravens last weekend. The Browns are 2-5 and are in desperate need of a victory. Ja'Marr Chase won't be playing for the Bengals today, so that's a huge blow to the offense. It'll make Cinncy much more one-dimensional. The Browns have been allowing 26.6 PPG, but they catch a break this week. What happens if Cleveland is 2-8 by the time that DeShaun Watson is available to play? They'll already be eliminated from playoff contention, so will they want to put their prize QB in harms way for no reason? Cleveland's offense is ranked sixth overall and I think Nick Chubb and company will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover down the stretch; while the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Knicks (ASSASSIN) The Knicks are coming off a tough, but competitive loss to the Bucks on Friday, falling 119-108. I think they'll come in "under the radar" here on Sunday and catch the overacheiving Cavaliers off guard. Cleveland is coming off an epic 132-123 OT win over Boston, and I say it has a predictable letdown here after that emotional win. Donovan Mitchell has gotten out to a strong start for the Cavs, and while Cleveland does have plenty of talent, it's still thin when compared to the top teams in the East. Previous to the loss to Milwaukee, the Knicks beat Charlotte 134-131 in OT. I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has it hands on the ball last, so that means that I'm going to grab up all these points; the play is the Knicks! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
10* Rams (NFC WEST GOM) The 3-4 San Francisco 49ers are off a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City. LA is off a 24-10 win over Carolina here at home two weeks ago. Now rested and ready to attack, I think the defending champs are the correct call here in this one. The 49ers got Christian McCaffrey just before last week's game, but he was pretty ineffective. LA will look to take advantage of a defense that conceded 529 yards and an offense that committed three turnovers. The 49ers have had the Rams' number in the past, winning seven of the last eight SU, but now the tables have turned in my opinion. This is an immediate revenge scenario as well, as San Francisco won earlier in the year at home by a score of 24-9. The Rams have made adjustments since then though and the 49ers now have more questions than answers, especially with Jimmy G under center. This Rams' defense is under-rated, and last week the 49ers' defense was exposed; while the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Rams! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY) The Patriots come to town as the more desperate side in this divisional showdown. I think that Bill Bellichick will bring out his best playbook calling today and I expect that to be enough to get the better of the overachieving Jets this weekend. After destroying the Browns 38-15 in Cleveland, New England fell flat in last week's 33-14 home loss to the desperate Bears. The Jets on the other hand won and covered as the favorite on the road in a 16-9 victory at Denver to move to 5-2 and in second in the AFC East, still looking up at the mighty Buffalo Bills. Mac Jones is back under center for New England and I expect him to have his best game of the season so far. New England is only allowing 345.3 yards and 20.9 PPG this season. Jones has uncharacteristically struggled this year. The Jets' offense hasn't been great, as they average only 331.3 YPG, which is ranked 21st. Zach Wilson is not better than Jones in my opinion. The Jets' defense has been good though, allowing 19.6 PPG. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one, and in scenarios like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion; clearly the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the Patriots! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10 GOY) The Spartans'll be out to pull off an outright upset here after dropping four of their last five. MSU is 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in league play. Will 7-0 Michigan then come in complacent and "look past" its lowly opponent? Hammering the Spartans never gets old, but I do think this sets up as a natural "letdown" spot. Next week the Wolverines take on Rutgers. But the Spartans are running out of time and chances here. Michigan's chemistry takes a hit here in my opinion as it comes out of its bye week. Last year MSU pulled off an upset over Michigan in a similar sort of situation. Amd I calling for an outright upset again this season? Of course not. That said, this great situational play has all the makings of an against-the-spread cover of the "rocking chair" variety; grab the points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (BLOCKBUSTER) Kentucky is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility after its 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago as a 3.5 point underdog. Tennessee is already 7-0 and it has its sights set on bigger things. Tennessee annihilated Tennessee Martin 65 to 24 last weekend as a 38.5-point favorite. Will Levis has been pretty good for the Wildcats though, he actually had his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State (finishing with a 91.1 QBR.) Running back Chris Rodriguez Junior had his best game also finishing with 197 yards on 31 carries against Mississippi State. Overall the Wildcats average 26.4 points per game, but they've been even better on the defensive side ranked in the top 15 nationally in points allowed. With Georgia on deck next week, obiously Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers have to be careful of not looking past the Wildcats. Tennessee's defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag, but the Vols don't usually have to be too sharp defensively as they're averaging 50.1 points per game, which is No. 1 in the nation. Kentucky faced a high-powered offense like this already in Ole Miss, and while the Wildcats didn't win that one, they kept the Rebels out of the end zone over the final three quarters. Levis will have some opportunities here against a sub-par Volunteer secondary; I'm not calling for an outright guys, but I think that Kentucky can keep it close! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
10* Phillies RUNLINE (WS GOY) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Philadelphia on the runline option here in Game 1. This Game 1 has the "Any Given Sunday" sort of "feel" to it. The fact that the Astros are in the World Series isn't a shocker, but the Phillies path to this point has been unexpected. They had to fight to make the Wildcard, but since then they've looked unstoppable. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports (especially in the playoffs) and it's one in which I've always felt that the oddsmakers have had a hard time propertly quantifying into a line at times. And that's the case here in my opinion. Aaron Nola has been great on the road all year and he eners with a 2-1, 3.12 ERA playoff record for the Phillies, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA for the Astros. Verlander got crushed in his last start, while Nola has been solid throughout. Give me the red hot Wheeler and the upstart Phillies to, at the very least, earn the ATS cover on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* BYU (ASSASSIN) We're at Lavell Edwards Stadium for this one. Both teams are on the cusp of eligibility. The East Carolina Pirates are 5-3, and BYU is 4-4. But while East Carolina has won five of its last seven, the Cougars enter on a three-game losing streak. This is a pivotal game for BYU this weekend. Here is a great opponent to go against, because despite the superior record, the Pirates are still just 3-3 in their last six on the road. ECU has a great quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who has 2,435 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Pirates have been pretty good in the run game as well, averaging 165.7 yards per game. Defensively they are giving up 390.7 yards and 24.6 points per game. But as I pointed out, the Pirates definitely play better at home than on the road. And that's the case for BYU as well. The Cougars will hope a little home cooking can turn things around for them. BYU has won five of its last six at home and I'd argue that Jaren Hall has been even better than Ahlers (he has 2,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions). The ground game has been pretty good as well, averaging 148.4 yards per game. The weakness so far has been on the defensive end for sure obviously, as they allow 30.3 points and 404.9 yards per game. But if you look at East Carolina's schedule to this point, it definitely has not been the toughest. I think the Cougars are the correct call here. I think they're going to play with a major sense of desperation after three straight losses. East Carolina has its bye week after this, and that's followed by three straight really tough games to end the year (at Cincinnati, against Houston and at Temple.) Give me the hungrier and more motivated home side to finally put it all together and post a solid win and cover in this one; the play is BYU! AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
10* RAVENS (NON-CONF GOM) The Bucs are 3-4 and the Ravens are 4-3. I think it's safe to say that neither is thrilled where they are at at this point of the season. Clearly that's the case for Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have had so many different issues to deal with since training camp. And it really doesnt appear as if things are going to get any easier for the the Bucs' super star, ESPECIALLY on the short week right? How can this short week be benefitting Brady at all right now? It's gotta just put added stress onto an already super stressful situation. This has to be is rock bottom for Brady? Losing 21-3 to the Carolina Panthers? There's no question that PJ Walker was the better quarterback on the field of play that day last weekend. I think that LaMar Jackson and the Ravens can smell the blood in the water this week. Jackson actually had his worst game of the season last week, as he completed just nine passes, and they were outgained by Cleveland 336 yards to 254. But a couple of timely scores and a Browns false start on the game tying field goal lifted them to the miraculous 23-20 victory. The Bucs are ripe for the picking here in my opinion ultimately. The offense is broken, the running game is non existent because the offensive line is in shambles. Brady was 32 of 49 for 290 yards last weekend and his average depth of target is just 7.8 this season, by far the lowest of his career.Clearly Baltimore is far from perfect, but I'm going with Jackson here to find a way to get the job done, as I definitely don't trust Brady right now; the play is the RAVENS. AAA Sports |
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10-26-22 | Heat +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* HEAT (NON-CONF GOM) Would anyone have guessed that the Heat would be 1-3 right now after four games, and the Blazers would be 4-0? Portland is also 4-0 ATS, while Miami is 0-4 ATS. The law of averages is flawed in many ways, but I've always felt that lop-sided numbers/trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, mid and the long-term. Miami is off the 98-90 home loss to rival Toronto. It simply CAN NOT afford to look past the Blazers today, because up next is a date at the defending champs tomorrow night. THat's the followed by a tricky road game against an improved Sacramento team (and that's followed by a home game against the Warriors again!) It's all hands on deck for Miami tonight. Would anyone fault Portland for having a minor letdown here after four straight victories to open the season as an underdog? All good things must come to an end. Note, ALL FOUR of Portland's victories have come against the top teams in the West as well, beating Sacramento, Phoenix (in T), the Lakers and most recently hammering the Nuggets 135-110. Now facing their first non-conference opponent of the season, this one screams "letdown" spot to me; the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* BEARS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams could really use a victory here. Will the Patriots go up early, and then keep the foot on the gas from start to finish? I say no way. I think this game will be decided in the trenches, and by field position. Running and protecting the ball. The Bears are 2-4 and the Patriots are 3-3. It's all hands on deck for Chicago after three straight losses. New England has looked great over the last two weeks, but I think it'll come out flat here after last week's 38-15 victory at Cleveland. So far the Bears are only averaging 15.5 PPG, but they'll have to open up the playbook here and be the aggressors. Justin Fields has 869 passing yards, four TD's and five INT's. The defense for the Bears is ranked 11th, allowing 19.7. New England allows 18.8, while averaging 23.5 of its own. Bailey Zappe has filled in for Mac Jones admirably, but the starter will likely be back under center tonight. Whoever is under center, I expect conservative game calling from Bellichick this evening. I say Chicago throws its best shot and while that may not be good enough to win this game outright, it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one; grab the points, the play is Da Bears! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the 76ers. The Pacers are 1-2 and the 76ers are 0-2. Neither team has gotten out to a great start, but I look for the 76ers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup. The Pacers are off a 124-115 home win over Detroit on Saturday, but I believe they'll stumble here in the opener of this difficult five game road trip. Mostly more than anything, I absolutely expect the 76ers to come out fired up here after two lacklustre games to open the season. The good news is that James Harden looks locked in early for Philly. This is a matchup that favors Joel Embiid and the home side and I expect them to take advantage; lay the points, because I look for the 76ers to win in blowout fashion! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Suns (BLOOD-BATH) The Suns are 1-1 and the Clippers are 2-0. Phoenix most recently fell 113-111 at Portland in OT as a five-point favorite on Friday night. The Clippers came away with the tight 111-109 road win over the Kings just last night, and I believe they'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back. Phoenix actually had to erase a 17-point halftime deficit in the loss to the Blazers, but just couldn't get the job done in the end. But with a couple games under their belts, and here facing the undefeated Clippers, I expect Phoenix to be at its best this evening. LA though could very likely rest some of its key players here in the B2B scenario. While I clearly think the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Phoenix! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (BLOCKBUSTER) The Jets are not only 4-2 ATS, but they're also 4-2 SU. New York is off an epic 27-10 road win at Green Bay, but I believe it'll have a predictable step back this weekend in Denver. Russell Wilson is out for the Broncos, which is a GREAT thing in my estimation. The pivot has struggled with his new team, and now enters Brett Rypien, who will be given the green light here. The Broncos are still excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16.5 PPG. I say that Zach Wilson and the Jets finally stumble here; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Washington Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
10* COMMANDERS (ASSASSIN) I think the Packers on the road is the incorrect call here. The Jets demolished Green Bay by a score of 27-10 last weekend, and I think that Taylor Heinickie and the home side can take advantage as well. Green Bay is just 3-3 now. Washington is 2-4 after its 12-7 win at Chicago last weekend. The offense has been inconsistent for Washington, but the defense has been its strength. Aaron Rodgers has struggled against defenses like this already and I think he'll be on the run once again this Sunday afternoon. I don't think the Giants or Jets are even that good. Certainly their defenses aren't. Green Bay is averaging only 17.3 PPG. Here's Heinickie about stepping in for Carson Wentz: "Starting 15 games last year, I feel a lot more comfortable, a lot more confident in what I need to do to win and what not to do to lose.” The majority of bets are on Green Bay, but the majority of the money is on Washington; lets follow the sharp money in this one! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* COLTS (ASSASSIN) Divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Every now and then there's an exception to that "rule" though and that's the case here today in my opinion. Both teams have battled back from shaky starts and enter at 3-2. Indianapolis enters off a 34-27 win over Jacksonville. The Titans barely held on for a tight 21-17 victory over Washington. So far the Colts are averaging 17.2 PPG, while allowing 20.2, while Tennessee is averaging 19.2 PPG, and allowing 23.6. These teams are almost identical in every way, but I'd argue that the Colts have looked a lot better over the last two outings. Especially their offense. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 24-17 in Week 4 and I expect the revenge factor to play a crucial part here as well; while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) The bookmakers are just begging people to take the Giants here. The vast majority of the bets are on New York, but I'm going the other way here and predicting that that desperate home side will not only win, but win big. I also expect a letdown here finally from the over-acheiving Giants who enter at 5-1, fresh off an upset win at home over Baltimore. The Giants will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here to their game at Seattle next week. At 2-4 the Jaguars simply NEED to win this game. Jacksonville actually enters off three straight losses. Trevor Lawrence could easily have a winning record right now if not for an unlucky bounce here or there. This is do or die for the home side and I expect that to the be the difference-maker; lay the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Clippers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Kings (ASSASSIN) I think this is a great "situational" play on the Kings. Sacramento lost its opener 115-108 as a 3-point favorite at home to Portland, but I think it bounces back here. The Clippers are off a satisfying 103-97 win over the Lakers in their opener, but with a home game against the Suns tomorrow night, I believe they'll classically get caught "looking ahead" to that one. LA has a great roster, but stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be used sparingly at the start of the season, after each comes back from a signficant injury. D'Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis are the correct call here at home. Mike Brown didn't play his starters a lot in the season opening loss, but we can expect a heavy dose today; while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let's grab the points, the play is Sacramento! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Nuggets +5 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
10* NUGGETS (BOB) I like Denver to bounce back after its poor 123-102 road loss at Utah as a 6.5 point favorite. Look for the Nuggets to make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive vs. the defending champs. I think the Nuggets got caught "looking ahead" to this Friday game. Golden State won and covered over the Lakers in their opener. When Denver gave up fewer than 111.0 points last season, it went 25-17 against the spread and 31-11 overall. Last season, Golden State had the league’s 15th-ranked scoring team (111.0 PPG), while Denver had the 14th-ranked defense in terms of points per game (110.4). Look for a very tight and competitive game, one that's decided in the final moments; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* SAINTS (GOW) The Cardinals have lost four of their last six overall, and three straight at home. They're averaging less than 20 PPG. Their run game is "OK," but they lack a passing offense with Murray as QB. DeAndre Hopkins does return from suspension this week, but I don't think he'll make much of an impact having sit out the last six weeks. New Orleans has been strong against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air while on the road. That turns Arizona really one-dimensional still. New Orleans on the other hand has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Wild | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) A couple of 0-3 teams collide here. Vancouver has had a two-goals lead in every game its played in so far, but it comes to town winless still. The Wild are most recently off a 6-3 loss to the Avs. Both teams have received suspect goaltending, but I still like Thatcher Demko in this spot for the Canucks, he's 0-3-0 with a 4.48 GAA. Minnesota goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is 0-1-- with an 8.37 GAA. Vancouver could easily be 4-0 right now, except for some brutal mental lapses. I believe Vancouver plays a full three periods today though and while the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call wil be to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; the play is Minnesota on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* 76ers (NON-DIV GOM) I like the way this one sets up at home for the 76ers. I believe they'll pull away for a double-digit victory right at the end. The Bucks were decent last year. They averaged 113.9 PPG< and allowed 110.7. The 76ers lost on the road to Boston, but an immediate return to the winner's circle will be in order here. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton to open the season. Milwaukee was bad defensively on the road last year, allowing more than 111 PPG. Look for Philly to pull away down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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10-19-22 | Pelicans +3 v. Nets | Top | 130-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN) With the majority of the money and the wagers on Brooklyn, I feel we're getting great value here on Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. This Pels team is legit with CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Ingram. The Nets were eliminated by the Celtics in the Playoffs, but they also had a tumultuous season. KD is back, and so is Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has an entirely new line-up though, and I think much like the Lakers unfortunately, they're going to have difficulties with chemistry in the early going. New Orleans is the better, deeper team on paper. The Slim Reaper and Kyrie are probably the two best players on the floor still, but I don't think it'll be enough with McCollum directing the show for New Orleans. Clearly I feel the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is the Pelicans! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Ducks +1.5 v. Devils | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Ducks PUCKLINE (NON-CONF. GOM) I think that Anaheim offers great value here on the puckline option. The Ducks are 1-2. They're off a 6-4 loss at New York last night. Typically I avoid playing on teams who are playing the second game of a back-to-back, but that factor doesn't actually become something I worry about until after the first month of play. These professional athletes are good to go right now and I'd argue that working out all the "bugs" last night, will only help the Ducks improve this evening. Anthony Stolarz will get the call in net for the visiting side, returning to play in his hometown. He's played 63 games and owns a sharp 2.75 GAA. New Jersey has the worst offense in the NHL. That's in part to several key injuries. They're just 1-6 on the power play. Mackenzie Blackwood let in four goals on 24 shots in the Devils' loss to the Flyers and I think he'll have his hands full today as well; lay the price, the play is Anaheim on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (AFC WEST GOY) Denver is 2-3 and LA is 3-2. Clearly this is a big game for each team. Neither side has lived up to the offseasno expectations. Especially Denver. Russell Wilson signed a nearly $250 million dollar contract and his performance to this point has been very weak. The veteran will be out to reverse his fortunes here against Christian Herbert and the Chargers. So far Denver is only averaging 15 PPG, but making up for it on the other side by allowing just 16. The Chargers enter having won two straight. The Chargers score 24.4 PPG, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 27.2. That's music to Wilson's ears finally. LA routinely plays down to the level of its competition. It's hard to imagine that Wilson has fallen off his skill set this quickly. I expect to see his best game of the season so far and while I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points; the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Blue Jackets PUCKLINE (BOB) Tampa fell 3-1 at New York in its opener, and I think the Lightning are going to have their hands full again here on the road vs. the hungry Blue Jackets. Columbus enters off a 4-1 loss at Carolina to open its season. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 36 saves in the loss to the Rangers, while Daniil Tarasov made 39 saves in the loss to Carolina. Elvis Merzilikins was sick for the Opener, but he could be back in net for the Jackets here, he finished 27-23-7 with a 3.22 GAA last year for Columbus. Either way, I feel that Tampa is in store for regression this season. This is a big home game opener for the Jackets and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to indeed grab them on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (PACIFIC DIV GOM) I think the Oilers could be in due for some regression this year. I think the Canucks could take another big step forward this year. In what I see being a very competitive game, one which will likely be decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to grab the visitors on the puckline option. Vancouver missed the playoffs last year, finishing fifth in the Pacific Division at 43-31-8. Edmonton wasn't that far ahead in second at 49-27-6. Thatcher Demko finished 32-22-7 with 2.72 GAA for Vancouver last year. Jack Campbell is now in net for Edmonton after coming over from the Leafs. Last year he was 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA. The Oilers have a potent offensive attack with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the defense was average. These two teams are more evenly matched than most think. I believe Vancouver could win this one outright, but the value here lies on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC GOM) At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 130 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Jets +4 v. Steelers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 42 m | Show |
10* JETS (AFC GOY) Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |