This is a 10* on LSU

It seems like forever ago that LSU put forth an unbelievable offensive display against Oklahoma, scoring 49 points in the first half on their way to an easy 63-28 win as two-touchdown favorites in the Peach Bowl. Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow threw seven touchdown passes - before halftime! Meanwhile, Clemson should feel lucky to be in New Orleans for this battle of 14-0 Tigers. They were down 16-0 to Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl, only to make a stunning rally, seemingly brought upon a targeting penalty that went against the Buckeyes. As we had the Under, the Tigers defense should be complimented for holding OSU to just 23 points, but they also gave up over 500 yards. They basically gained 100 fewer yards than the Buckeyes and virtually all of their yards gained came on the four touchdown drives. That doesn't sound like a winning formula to beat LSU. While we expect Clemson to play better, the fact this game takes place in New Orleans does them no favors as it will be a virtual home game for LSU, who is laying a shockingly low number all things considered. Play on LSU

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

Its seems as if no one is really giving Miami much of a chance in Monday's Lending Tree Bowl. But the RedHawks should be pretty used to that by now. They were underdogs in the MAC Championship Game and won that outright, beating Central Michigan 26-21. Even getting to play for the MAC Championship seemed like a pipe dream when Miami was 1-3, but looking back, those losses were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State (all 10+ win teams). One of the two conference losses was the final regular season game where the RedHawks had nothing to play for and sat starters. In something that is truly stunning, Miami has been a favorite in only two games all year! Those were against Akron and Bowling Green. As an underdog, they are 7-4 ATS, winning outright six times. So while Louisiana finished the regular season with one of the best overall ATS marks (9-4), it's a lot of points to lay to a team well-versed in the underdog role. Two of the Ragin Cajuns three losses were to Appalachian State, the other to Mississippi State. Certainly, we can see them winning this game, but the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for here is too high. Miami has a good defense that makes plenty of tackles for loss. Play MIAMI OH

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN MISS

Southern Miss is an underdog here against Tulane, but given the way the Green Wave played down the stretch, this sure looks like too many points for them to lay here. Losers of five of the past six games, including the last three, Tulane didn’t beat many good teams. Their one victory over a bowl team was the season opener vs. FIU. Since then, they’ve gone 0-6 and covered the spread just twice. Obviously both covers came as underdogs. Southern Miss saw its regular season end with two straight losses. They turned the ball over eight times in those two losses, which cost them a chance to win the Conference USA West Division. We expect the Golden Eagles to be slightly more motivated as they were not picked for a bowl last season despite winning six games. They easily could win here, so why not take the points? These schools used to be regular rivals, but have met only twice since 2006. Southern Miss not only won both of those, they’ve beaten Tulane six times in a row. Play on SOUTHERN MISS

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

Nevada got hit with multiple suspensions for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against Ohio, most of them on the defensive side of the ball. Four are defensive starters and three players will miss the entire game while LB Sewell must sit for the first half. These suspensions came about due to a fight with UNLV in the last regular season game. It's not just different players that coach Jay Norvell is being forced to turn to on that side of the ball. Essentially, it's an entirely new staff on the defensive side of the ball coaching this game. Virtually all were let go after losing to UNLV.  But throughout this bowl season, we've seen replacements "step up" when needed. This total has gotten too high not to go Under. Some of that has to do with what Ohio did in its last two regular season games when they dropped a total of 118 points on Bowling Green and Akron. But those are two of the worst teams in the country. Nevada's offense only averages 21.3 points/game, which could be a bigger problem than the defense. They averaged just 18.0 points/game outside of Reno. The Under is 6-1 in the Wolf Pack's previous seven bowl appearances. Play UNDER Ohio-Nevada

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana is looking for its first bowl win since 1991. That's easily the longest drought among Power 5 teams. We had to look it up, but the Hoosiers are the ONLY P5 team not to have won a bowl this century. Only two other P5 teams have failed to win a bowl going back to 2008 (Kansas, Colorado). So if you don't think this game means a lot to IU, then you're kidding yourself. It's just the fifth bowl appearance since that last win in 1991. Tennessee is back in a bowl after a two year hiatus. Prior to the hiatus, they'd won three straight bowl games. Neither team had many good wins during the regular season. Generally speaking, they'd win the games they were "supposed to" and lost when they were an underdog. For us, it boils down to Indiana's high level of motivation and the fact they are now an underdog after opening as the favorite. The Hoosiers can score more than the Volunteers (32.6 vs. 24.3 points/game). Tennessee has failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times it has been a favorite. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE

Throughout this bowl season, we've seen bettors make the mistake of overreacting to players sitting out. Look at what happened last night with Georgia. Boston College is the next team dealing with a key absence as their star running back A.J. Dillon is getting ready for the NFL Draft. The Eagles also fired their coach at the end of the regular season and will play for an interim today. But don't be surprised when they show up ready to play in Birmingham. By upsetting Pittsburgh in the final game of the regular season, the BC players showed that playing in a bowl is important to them. We had the Eagles in that spot. We'll take the points with them again here as Cincinnati could very well be disinterested in this game after losing its Conference Championship, which cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. While they had a good season (10 wins), there have been only two times in the last six games where the Bearcats won by more than a touchdown. A dangerous number to lay with a potentially disinterested team and Boston College has covered nine in a row when getting between 3.5 and 10 points (5-0 ATS this year). Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

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This is a 10* on the OVER

This total is too low. Even though we are still believers in Georgia's defense, it was shredded by LSU in the SEC Championship Game and that memory is difficult to shake. Baylor put up 35 points per game this year and was 10-0 against everyone but Oklahoma. QB Charlie Brewer, who exited the Big 12 Championship Game with a concussion, has been cleared to play to in the Sugar Bowl. We obviously need not worry about whether or not the Bears will be motivated. This is their first Sugar Bowl since 1957 and what a transformation it has been in just two seasons under coach Matt Rhule, who is sticking around in Waco despite all the NFL speculation. Georgia may have some key players sitting this one out, but last year's Sugar Bowl loss to Texas still lingers and that will have them motivated this year as well. The Over is 4-1 in Baylor's past five bowl games. Play OVER Baylor-Georgia

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This is an 8* on ALABAMA

The fact that Alabama is laying only a touchdown here kinda "stinks" but we feel they shouldn't have much trouble with Michigan. This is a spot the Wolverines consistently come up short in every time. Under Jim Harbaugh, they have been terrible as underdogs going 0-6 the last three years while covering just twice. Three of those losses came this year including losses by 21 to Wisconsin and 29 to Ohio State. The Wolverines prospects look even bleaker when you consider that the Big 10 is just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS vs. the SEC in bowls since 2015. Even with backup QB Mac Jones starting in place of the injured Tua, Bama will move the ball and score plenty in the Citrus Bowl. Against Auburn, Jones threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns by completing 26 of his 39 pass attempts. The Tide's offensive line should push around an undersized Michigan defensive front. Both teams have to get over the disappointment of not being in the Playoff, but Michigan has never shown that it can beat a team of Alabama's caliber. It could get ugly in a hurry in Orlando. Play ALABAMA

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This is an 8* on the UNDER 

Minnesota was one of the biggest surprise teams in the country, starting 9-0 before losing two of its final three regular season games. But Auburn may be the best team they will have faced all season. The Gophers certainly haven't gone up against a better defense. Yes, Auburn gave up lots of yards and points in the Iron Bowl. But Minnesota doesn't have the same kind of offensive talent Alabama does. Before facing Bama, the Tigers hadn't allowed more than 24 points in a game all year. Minnesota did not finish with more than 19 points in either of its two losses. A lot of the Gophers success on offense this year came about because of its ability to convert on third down, which we feel they'll struggle to do in this game. So as long as Auburn's offense doesn't explode, we're looking at an easy Under in the Outback Bowl. That shouldn't happen as the Tigers don't average a ton of points outside of Jordan-Hare. Play UNDER in Minnesota-AUBURN

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

Herm Edwards has proven to be a good hire for Arizona State. But his teams have tended to perform better when in the underdog role. The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS as favorites this year and lost half of those games straight up. Its five wins over Power 5 opponents have been by an average of just 5.4 points/game. So we clearly don't like them in this spot as they're laying points to what should be a motivated Florida State team in the Sun Bowl. The Seminoles can only hope Mike Norvell, who moves over from Memphis, can be the kind of coach Edwards has been for ASU. But for this game they'll be playing for an interim, Odell Haggins, who at least gets to stay on Norvell's staff. Both teams are going to be without their starting running backs here as Cam Akers and Eno Benjamin have elected to get ready for the NFL Draft instead of play this game and risk injury. There are going to be other key absences for the Sun Devils. WR/KR Brandon Aiyuk is also going pro. Their defensive coordinator also left to be the head coach at New Mexico. Grab the points in this one. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on KENTUCKY

Unless folks are feeling extra sentimental over the swan song of long time Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster, we don't understand this line move at all. Obviously, Foster's defense is going to want to send him out a winner. But you can look for the Hokies to struggle to contain UK quarterback Lynn Bowden, whose college career is also coming to an end in this game (going pro). Since Bowden became the starter, this Wildcats offense has been much better. They've averaged an amazing 352 rush yards/game. While the vast majority of the talk about defense will center around Va Tech and Foster leaving, the irony is that Kentucky has the better stop unit. They allow 18.4 points/game (Virginia Tech allowing 23.7), which is 12th best in the country. SEC team averaged only 330 yards/game vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats were something of a pointspread juggernaut this year going 9-3 against the spread. Virginia Tech is 1-6 straight up and against the spread its last seven games with a spread of three points or less. Play on KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* on Illinois

Illinois is in a bowl for the first time under Lovie Smith, snapping what was a five-year drought. They last won a bowl game back in 2011. So what this team may lack in talent, it makes up for in motivation. During the regular season, the Illini went 6-1 ATS when they were underdogs and they won three of those games outright, all at +9.5 or higher. On the other side, there were only three times in the regular season where California was listed higher than -2 when facing a FBS team. They went 0-3 ATS in them and lost outright twice. So we're not sure why the Bears are laying so many here. Injuries were a big story for both teams this year and continue to be heading into the bowl game. Cal will be without three starters, the most important being safety Ashtyn Davis, who also doubled as a kick returned. For Illinois, both WR Josh Imatorbhebhe and LB Jake Hansen are gametime decisions. However, the Illini got great news with QB Peters being cleared to play. Disregard the way each team's regular season ended. This is a far more even matchup than the oddsmakers are letting on. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

We've got the two longest winning streaks in all of the FBS on the line here as Clemson has won 28 straight games and Ohio State has won 19 in a row. But we also have two teams with top five scoring defenses. Clemson gives up just 10.6 points/game while again OSU isn't too far behind, allowing just 12.5. There is a pretty clear cut case to be made that neither defense has faced an offense as good as the one they'll be up against in this year's Fiesta Bowl. But this total still seems high to us. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game all season. Remember that they shut Ohio State out, 34-0, in the Playoff three years ago. That semifinal was played on this very field. The Buckeyes aren't going down that easy again and could very well win thanks to their defense which is considerably better than anything Clemson saw in the weak ACC. The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers' four previous semifinal appearances. The Under is also 4-1 in Ohio State's last five bowl games. Play UNDER Clemson-Ohio State

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This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA

We've watched as this line has gone up ... and up. After thinking some, it's just too high. Oklahoma isn't a team you'll find too often in the underdog role, let alone getting this many points. Ironically, it has happened each of the last two years in the Playoff. Last year they lost to Alabama 45-33 but covered a spread that was pretty similar to this one. The year before they did not cover but were a small underdog to Georgia and that game went to double overtime. The Sooners only loss this year was by seven points (at Kansas State). QB Jalen Hurts has previous Playoff experience with Alabama. LSU's Heisman winner Joe Burrow is making his first Playoff appearance. Not going to sit here and tell you that LSU has any glaring weaknesses (because they don't). But this is too many points to lay to an Oklahoma team that averages 43.2 points/game, a comparable number to LSU's more ballyhooed offense. Look for this game to be decided by single digits. An injury at RB definitely won't help the favored Tigers. Oklahoma's defense is much improved from a season ago. Play on OKLAHOMA

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

The respective offenses in this game couldn't be more different. Washington State loves to pass. Air Force loves to run. Neither defense has seen an offense like the one they will see Friday night in the Cheez-It Bowl and this has created the expectation for a shootout. But we believe this total to be too high. Air Force has a pretty good defense and it's not like it doesn't face a lot of pass-happy offenses in the Mountain West. The Falcons give up 19.8 points/game and held Hawaii to 26 in Honolulu. No one scored more than 30 against them in the regular season. Now will Washington State's defense be sound enough for this game to stay Under? Most are going to say "no," but it will help if Air Force RB Timothy Jackson misses the game. Washington State could also be without one of its leading receivers. It would be crazy to think that this will be a low scoring game, but with a number this high, there is room for an Under. Washington State has not scored more than 28 points in any of its last four bowl games. Play UNDER Washington State-Air Force

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This is a 10* on TEXAS A&M 

A lot of bettors might feel that a spread approaching a touchdown seems like a lot for what looks a matchup of two "evenly matched teams" in the Texas Bowl. But all five of Texas A&M's losses this year were to Top 10 teams (LSU, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama & Auburn) and three of the five teams were ranked #1 at the time the Aggies played them!  Safe to say, you won't find a team that took on a more challenging schedule. Some of those lsses were "stinkers," the LSU game especially, but Oklahoma State is not in the same class as those aforementioned opponents. The Cowboys faced only four ranked foes this year and lost to three of them. Much is made that they have the nation's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard (1936 yards), but Texas A&M's Isaiah Spiller softens the blow of teammate Cordarrian Richardson missing this game. Speaking of absences, OK State won't have leading receiver Tylan Wallace. QB Spencer Sanders will play, but he missed the last two regular season games after undergoing thumb surgery. Mike Gundy has been excellent in bowl games, winning seven of the last nine and three in a row. But so has Jimbo Fisher, who is 6-2 SU with a 52-13 win last year. Play on TEXAS A&M.

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This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN

It seems as if the narrative surrounding this bowl game is that it's "Pitt's to lose." They are obviously the more talented team and are led by a defense that has 49 sacks and 98 tackles for loss. But will the Panthers be motivated? They did not have a good finish to the regular season, losing to Virginia Tech and Boston College by a combined score of 54-19 in the final two games. That dropped them down the ACC pecking order and gave them this less than desirable bowl locale. But Eastern Michigan isn't complaining as Detroit is just 36 miles from their campus in Ypsilanti. So it's a home game of sorts for them. It's also another chance to notch their first bowl win since 1987 (California Raisin). That's the program's one and only bowl win. They've had two chances in the last three years, but came up just short both times. They lost last year's Camellia Bowl by two points to Georgia Southern and 2016's Bahamas Bowl by four points to Old Dominion. But they did cover both of those games. This is the just fourth bowl ever for the Eagles and the first time they've ever been bowling in consecutive years. So motivation will not be an issue for them. We're not even sure Pitt has an offense capable of covering a double digit spread. They only average 20.1 points/game. The Eastern Michigan offense is led by QB Mike Glass, who completed over 67% of his pass attempts and seven different receivers had more than 20 catches. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN

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This is an 8* play on BYU

Obviously, this is a home game for Hawaii. But that doesn't necessarily guarantee victory on its own. The Warriors last four bowl appearances have all come in the Hawaii Bowl and three of them have resulted in losses. The most recent was last year to Louisiana Tech, 31-14. We think BYU is disciplined enough to avoid the distractions of going out to Honolulu for Christmas Ever and come away with a victory here. The Cougars are 7-5 with wins over Tennessee, USC and Boise State. Hawaii has the edge on offense with QB McDonald, but BYU is better defensively by a wider margin. In the last three games, BYU allowed just 277 yards/game. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any game since October. The Hawaii defense gives up 6.9 yards per play. While BYU scored only three points against San Diego State in the regular season finale, that was against one of the top defenses in the country and they actually rolled up over 400 yards (couldn't finish drives). One final thing to consider is that Hawaii turned the ball over 30 times in 14 games. Their turnover margin for the year was worse than all but three teams in the entire FBS. Play on BYU

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

The only Saturday bowl game with any sort of "national appeal" goes down in Las Vegas with Washington taking on #19 Boise State. There is a tremendous storyline for this game as Chris Petersen, who built the Boise State program to national prominance, will be coaching his final game at Washington. While Boise is the ranked team, we agree with the oddsmakers that Washington is better. Yes, it was a disappointing 7-5 season for Petersen in Seattle. But four of those five losses came by six points or less and two of them were blown leads against Oregon and Utah. As a favorite, the Huskies are 7-3 straight up and against the spread. Boise State has the better record (12-1) but that was against a much weaker schedule than what Washington faced. The Mountain West was pretty down this year. The Broncos may be a little disappointed from getting left out of a "New Year's Six" bowl. We also question how much they'll want to beat their former coach in his final game! Washington has lost its last three bowls, so their motivation will be through the roof in Petersen's final game. The defensive numbers of these two teams are pretty similar, but remember Washington faced a much tougher slate of offenses. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on LIBERTY

The Cure Bowl in Orlando pits 7-5 Liberty against 7-5 Georgia Southern. Liberty is an independent (no conference affiliation) and it's pretty impressive they got to a bowl in just their second season at the FBS level. The Flames don't exactly have the most impressive resume as they were just 1-4 against bowl teams, but we like Hugh Freeze's team getting points here. Georgia Southern also got here by mostly beating up the weaklings on their schedule. They were 5-3 in the Sun Belt. Without question, their most impressive win came on a Thursday night at Appalachian State. The Eagles were the only team to beat the Mountaineers in the regular season. Outside of that signature win though, there doesn't seem to be much difference between GSU and Liberty. The Eagles do have the nation's eighth ranked rushing offense and are 2-0 all-time in bowls. But they are averaging only 23.3 points/game on the road, making them a shaky favorite. Look for Liberty to stay inside the number. Play on LIBERTY

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This is a 10* on BUFFALO

Two schools that have never even won a bowl game kick off the 2019-20 bowl season as Buffalo takes on Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. This is Charlotte's first ever bowl game. The 49ers have only been playing football since 2013 and got to the FBS level in 2015. This, their fifth season in Conference USA, proved to be their first winning campaign as they finished a surprising 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference play. They are one of seven Conference USA teams in a bowl. Buffalo also brings a 7-5 record to the Bahamas. They were 5-3 in the MAC and one of seven teams from that conference to get into a bowl game. The Bulls are 0-3 SU all-time in bowls, the most recent loss coming last year in the Dollar General Bowl, 42-32, as a one-point favorite to Troy. We'll lean on UB's previous bowl experience as a motivating factor plus they have the better defense. The Bulls allow less than 300 yds/game and set a school record with 38 sacks. Charlotte's defense allows significantly more points and yards and is going to have to figure out a way to stop a Buffalo offense that reached 40 points in each of its last four wins. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on UNDER

UAB and Florida Atlantic will play Saturday in Boca Raton for the Conference USA Championship. These are the two previous Championship Game winners with FAU winning in 2017 and UAB winning last year. Obviously, Florida Atlantic has an edge with this Championship Game being played at home. Conference USA is one of only three conferences that play its Title Game at a campus site (American and Mountain West are the others).  Though conference rivals, it's not like UAB and FAU are regular opponents. They haven't met since 2014. From 2008-14, they did play six times. All six games went Over. We believe this one is going to go a little differently.  UAB has a great defense. They give up only 18.5 points/game. Problem is the offense struggles to score big time when it is on the road. There were back to back games at Tennessee and Southern Miss where the Blazers managed only nine points - total! UAB only faced four teams that are bowl eligible this year. The most points they scored in any of those games was 20.  Florida Atlantic surged down the stretch and has won five in a row coming into Saturday. They've averaged an impressive 37.4 points/game during that win streak. But look for the Owls to be held well below that number here. At the same time, three of those five wins saw them allow 17 points or less. Given what we know about the UAB offense, that's a realistic number here. Play UNDER UAB-Florida Atlantic

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This is a 10* on MIAMI 

Central Michigan's only win of 2018 was against Maine, an FCS team. But the Chippewas have gone from 1-11 to 8-4 and MAC Championship Game favorite in just a year's time. Collectively, the MAC was pretty weak this year. So the idea any team would be favored by a touchdown in a Championship Game scenario just doesn't seem right. This line surprised us.  Miami finished 7-5 overall and won the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. Because they wrapped the division up three weeks ago, it meant they had nothing to play for the last two games. They only beat Akron by three and then lost by 14 last week at Ball State. We played against them both times and won! There is no shame in the RedHawks three non-conference losses as they were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. The RedHawks are 24-8 straight up their last 34 conference games. Last week saw them rest starters in the second half, which is how a 27-14 halftime lead turned into a 41-27 loss. QB Gabbert got hurt in the 1st half, but is ready to go this week. Both teams were much better at home than on the road in the regular season. But Central Michigan had some bad losses (Buffalo, Western Michigan) and was lucky to beat Ball State after a big comeback. Expect a close game here. Rumors of Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain going to Missouri may be a distraction. Play on MIAMI OHIO

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This is a 10* on ARMY

Army is 5-6 and needs a win to go bowling for a third consecutive season. Hawaii is 8-3 and has the Mountain West Championship Game (vs. Boise State) on deck. This seems like an excellent opportunity to take Army plus the points. Army is also coming off a bye as well as two easy opponents before that. Hawaii just won a hard fought game last week against San Diego State that came down to a missed field goal. The Warriors won 14-11 to clinch their division and thus move onto the Mt West's Championship Game next week. For the record, we were on Hawaii last week. They were our 10* Game of the Week, in fact! When getting set to face Army, an extra week of preparation is beneficial because of the triple option. Well, not only does Hawaii not have the extra week to prepare, they've got to be thinking about next week's game vs. Boise State. That one is more important to these players and coaching staff. As for Army, winning here is all that matters so that they can get to six wins. When coming off a bye, they've gone 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. They've also covered 9 of 13 as underdogs with five outright wins. Hawaii is 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. Play on ARMY

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This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE 

Boston College has won exactly 7 games in five of Steve Adazzio's six seasons here in Chesnut Hill. The outlier season was 2015 when the Golden Eagles went 3-9. To get to 7 wins again this year, they are going to have to first win this week and then a bowl game. There won't be a bowl for B.C. if they lose this week at Pittsburgh. They enter in at 5-6 after losing 40-7 last week at Notre Dame. This will now be the third try for six wins. They also lost at home to Florida State three weeks ago. Fortunately for BC, Pitt doesn't have much to play for here. The Panthers have 7 wins, so they'll be in a bowl. But they were shutout last week, 28-0, by Virginia Tech. We question whether this Panthers team can even score enough to cover a spread this big. They only average 20.2 points/game. None of Pitt's seven wins have been by more than 10 points.  With only one meeting as ACC rivals, there's some unfamiliarity here. Pitt has been outscored despite a 7-4 record - by 1.3 points/game. B.C. has a virtually identical scoring differential. So this is a line that should be closer to a field goal. Some real value on a underdog that will be more motivated than the favorite. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

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This is an 8* play on the OVER

Georgia will be playing LSU in the SEC Championship Game next week, but first they've got this date with Georgia Tech. It shouldn't be a very difficult game as the Yellow Jackets are struggling this year. We look for the Bulldogs to score a lot of points in this one, many more than they've been scoring against SEC defenses. Georgia Tech used to run the option under Paul Johnson, but has transitioned to a more pro style offense under first year coach Geoff Collins. As you'd expect, it's been a difficult transition with personnel fit for the old system. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 17.5 points/game. But they did just score 28 in win over NC State last week. QB James Graham accounted for all four touchdowns, three throwing and one running. Georgia hasn't scored more than 27 points in six straight games. But look at some of the defenses they've had to go up against. Georgia Tech is giving up over 30 points/game, so expect this to be a big day for QB Jake Fromm and the rest of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia did score at least 30 in four of its first five games including 55+ in the two non-conference games that weren't Notre Dame. Six straight Unders is the streak Georgia is on coming into this game. It's time for the offense to finally get rolling again. They've scored 83 on Ga Tech the last two years and can send this one Over by themselves. Play OVER Georgia-Georgia Tech

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This is an 8* on SOUTH ALABAMA

South Alabama is finishing up a terrible season here (Jaguars come in at 1-10 SU), but we're banking on Arkansas State being a disinterested favorite Friday afternoon. Despite having very different records, these Sun Belt opponents may not be as far apart as you think. Arkansas State is 7-4. All they can do with a win here is improve their bowl position. The Red Wolves have won four in a row, but the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Compare that to poor South Alabama who has generally been competitive, but can't quite get over the hump. Having a freshman QB hasn't helped the Jaguars cause, but at least there have been signs of improvement from Desmond Trotter. Key here is that Arkansas State has a terrible defense. The Red Wolves have allowed the second most yards in the Sun Belt. They allow 34.9 points/game overall and 41.6 points/game on the road. Despite a winning record, they have given up more points than they've scored this year. They've been outgained the last two weeks. South Alabama hasn't beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville State. But they are playing the final game at home, which should mean some motivation. The last three years have seen the Jaguars go 3-0 in SBC home finales. Arkansas State isn't likely to take this game too seriously. They'll be happy with just winning, but don't look for a blowout. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA

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This is an 8* on TCU

TCU has to pick itself up here after a close loss to Oklahoma last Saturday night. Lucky for them is that they have the motivation of needing to win here to get to a bowl game. West Virginia should be happy to oblige. This has been a bad season in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six out of their last seven games. Their hopes of going to a bowl ended last week when they lost at home to Oklahoma State by a score of 20-13. TCU has had its share of close defeats as well. Five of the six times they've lost this year, the final margin has been within a touchdown. But they were in this exact situation last year, needing to win the final regular season game. They did just that, beating Oklahoma State by a touchdown. It's a weaker opponent this time around, one that has nothing left to play for. The Horned Frogs also have some revenge on their minds after losing 47-10 last season in Morgantown. To us, it's not a question of whether or not TCU wins. They will. It's a question of "by how much?" With WVU having gone 5-10-2 its last 17 tries as an underdog, it doesn't look good for them Friday afternoon in Ft. Worth. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry. Play on TCU

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This is a 10* on OVER

Missouri's season has completely gone off a cliff with five straight losses. Adding insult to injury, their bowl ban for 2019 was just upheld. Had the ban been overturned, the Tigers could have gotten to a bowl by winning the regular season finale.If there's one team in the SEC that's definitely in worse shape than Mizzou, it's Arkansas. The Razorbacks already fired their coach and a loss today would mean a second consecutive 2-10 season. With nothing on the line but alleged "pride" Friday afternoon in Fayatteville, we expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Really, does either side have any pride left? Arkansas just lost its first game for interim Barry Lunney Jr, 56-20 to LSU. They at least covered as 40+ point underdogs. But it was the fifth straight game the Razorbacks allowed at least 45 points. Mizzou will relish facing a defense like Arkansas's as the Tigers have had all sorts of issues scoring during their losing skid. At least last week they got to 20 points against Tennessee. The previous four games saw the Tigers a total of only 27 points. We'll call for their best offensive performance since October 12th here.  The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas previous nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Missouri hasn't won on the road in 2019.) The Over is also 10-4 when the Hogs are off an ATS win. Play OVER Missouri-Arkansas

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This is a 10* on BALL STATE

The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation."  There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE

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This is a 10* on MISS ST

This line seems awfully strange given that Mississippi State needs the game to get bowl eligible. Rival Ole Miss is 4-7 SU, so you won't be seeing them in any bowl. Obviously, the Rebels will still come out motivated given who the opponent is. But it's not as if MSU won't feel the same way, if not more so, based on what a loss would mean to them. While its easy to say Miss State has regressed under Joe Moorhead, a lot of talent was lost from last year's team which had the #2 defense in all of the FBS. Especially along the defensive line. The Bulldogs have given up over 2x as many points this year compared to last.  But looking at MSU's season, it's easy to see what the problem is. They just didn't fare well against good teams. As underdogs, their record is 0-4 straight up and against the spread. They lost those four games by an average of 26.5 points/game. But the Bulldogs are slight favorites here, as they should be, for a game they have to win. They'll be looking to reverse a trend that has seen the visitor win the last four Egg Bowls.  Ole Miss has just two wins since Oct 5th. It was against New Mexico State. Their two SEC wins were against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, each of whom occupy last place in the respective divisions. The only other Rebels win was against a FCS school. As an underdog, they are 0 for 6 (SU) this year. Miss State is the better team and we will play accordingly. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE

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This is a 10* on HAWAII 

There's certainly a lot on the line here. The winner of this late night affair wins the Mountain West Conference's West Division. Lucky for Hawaii that they get the game at home where they have a distinct advantage. San Diego State may be 5-0 on the road, but this is the toughest trip in the conference. Hawaii could only manage a 21-7 win over a bad UNLV team last week. But the Warriors apparently didn't take the Rebels very seriously. QB Cole McDonald, who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season, didn't even start. The coaching staff wanted to evaluate redshirt freshman QB Chevan Cordeiro and let him play the first quarter.  We had the Under in that game and loved seeing Cordeiro throw two interceptions and fail to direct a single scoring drive. Once McDonald came in though, Hawaii quickly seized control of the game. This game likely comes down to Hawaii's offense vs. SDSU's defense. Hawaii is averaging 36.2 points and over 500 yards in home games. The Aztecs are giving up less than 14 points and 300 yards.  Hawaii's defense isn't great, but it also allowed only seven points last week. San Diego State has only three games where they scored more than 25 points. If Hawaii gets going like normal, then the Aztecs simply won't be able to keep pace. Play on HAWAII 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARKANSAS

Few will want to touch Arkansas as they are in midst of a lost season and facing the #1 team in the country Saturday night. But this is obviously a lot of points. LSU is good, but they've never had to lay more than 40 in SEC play. That tidbit caught our attention this week. While LSU appears on its way to the College Football Playoff, Arkansas has already fired its coach. Chad Morris didn't even make it two full seasons in Fayatteville. He was fired two weeks ago after the Razorbacks lost 45-19 at home to Western Kentucky. As abrupt as the firing was, it was not the least bit surprising. So now long-time assistant Barry Lunney Jr has been tapped as the interim. The Hogs had last week off, so Lunney and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for LSU. Two months wouldn't be enough for them win this game, but with no bowl game, this team is going to approach this game like it's the "Super Bowl." Expect an inspired effort by the underdog Saturday night. As for the other sideline, LSU coach Ed Orgeron has made it pretty clear that he's going to pull starters as early as possible. That will give Arkansas opportunities in the second half. While the Tigers offense is record-setting, the defense isn't that great. They gave up 614 yards in last week's 58-37 win against Mississippi. It was the fourth game this year that LSU allowed at least 450 yards and 37 points. Rutgers covered against Ohio State last week. Arkansas can do the same this week. Play on ARKANSAS

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This is a 10* on CAL

It's been a decade since California has won "The Big Game." Nine straight losses to Stanford have come by an average of 19 points/game. But we feel this will be the year for the crew from Berkeley. In recent years, Cal has definitely closed the gap on their rivals from Palo Alto. For this, the 122nd meeting, the Bears actually come in with the better won-loss record. It's been a long time since that was the case.  Now after a 4-0 start, the Bears have lost five of six. Like Stanford, they are incredibly banged up coming into this game. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. But on the defensive side of the ball, we like what Cal has to offer more.  We played against Stanford last week. They lost 49-22 at Washington State and had just six yards rushing. We warned you about the Cardinal's offensive ineptitude after they could only score 13 points on a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. While Stanford needs to win here and next week to be bowl eligible, we don't think there's any doubt as to which side will be more motivated Saturday down on "The Farm." This nine-year losing streak has to be eating at the Cal players and the senior class doesn't want to go out 0-4. Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year (three outright wins) and 10-5 ATS its last 15 road games. Stanford is 3-7 ATS in all games this season. Play on CALIFORNIA

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This is an 8* on SYRACUSE

One of the more inexplicable results we've seen in College Football this year was Syracuse beating Duke last week. The Orange had gone nearly two months without a win over a FBS foe. They were 8.5-point underdog on the road. Yet they ran wild for 286 yards on the ground and won 49-6. Just because we did not see that result coming does not mean it is without merit. Syracuse is a proud program still trying to make a bowl game. Last year's 10-win season was capped by a bowl victory. You can bet Dino Babers' team would like to get back there. Louisville is already bowl eligible, a major achievement after winning just two games in 2018. First year head coach Scott Satterfield has done a nice job here. But the Cardinals as a favorite is something we want no part of quite yet. This game marks the first time under Satterfield that Louisville is laying more than four points to a conference opponent. The Cardinals were -4 last week at NC State and won 34-20. But they also lost the total yardage battle in that game. They won the turnover battle though (+3) and also pulled off a fake field goal for a touchdown. It also helped that their opponents played without their top five cornerbacks! What a difference a year makes. Last year, Syracuse won 10 games and was considered the rising program in the ACC. Now its Louisville in that same position. We just aren't convinced that the favorite belongs in this price range - yet. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is a 10* on the OVER

The annual "Border War" between Colorado State and Wyoming is renewed Friday night. Despite being in different states, the schools are just 65 miles apart. Wyoming is CSU's most common opponent with Rams holding 58-47-5 all-time series edge. But the Cowboys have won three years in a row, including 34-21 in Ft. Collins last season. Colorado State comes into Friday needing to win its last two games to get bowl eligible. That's probably not going to happen as next week they face Boise State, whom they've never beaten. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be expecting some fireworks out of the Rams this week. Last Saturday night at Air Force, Colorado State had an early 14-0 lead. But they couldn't hold on and ended up not even covering due to a late pick-six that made the final score 34-21 in Air Force's favor. It was the fewest points scored by the Rams since facing the tough defense of San Diego State. Turnovers were also costly for Wyoming last week as they had four of them in a 26-21 loss at Utah State. The good news for the Cowboys is this game is at home where they are 5-0 and averaging 33 points.   Wyoming lost its starting QB (Sean Chambers) a few weeks ago and has a pretty stout defense. That may lead some to believe that Under is the correct call here. But you can look for the Cowboys to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. CSU gives up 206.7 rush yards per game. Wyoming averages 220 rush yards per game. Both teams will find ways to score here. Play OVER Colorado State-Wyoming

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This is a 10* on GEORGIA TECH

It seems as if ESPN and College Football have conceded Thursday night to the NFL this week as they present a rather unappealing matchup between NC State and Georgia Tech. But sometimes these kind of matchups produce the most value. We see value on the home side in Atlanta. Little was expected from Georgia Tech coming into the 2019 season. They have certainly delivered on those low expectations with a 2-8 record. The reason for those low expectations was the transition from the triple option to a pro-style offense. The Yellow Jackets had started to show signs of improvement, but then ran into a buzzsaw known as Virginia Tech last week. The less said about the 45-0 loss, the better. NC State isn't exactly tearing it up either. Four straight losses where they've allowed 178 points is an ugly stretch, no matter how you want to look at it. The Wolfpack are also allowing 456.3 yards per game during the same four-game span. This is a horrendous defensive output, one that should allow for Georgia Tech to have perhaps its best offensive game of the season. It's been five years since we've seen a NC State-Georgia Tech matchup. The Yellow Jackets are 12-3 the last 15 meetings and have gone 15-2 the last 17 games against the ACC's Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech was embarrassed last week. We can't see it happening for a second straight week at home. It's telling that they are the favorite here. NC State's defense is so bad right now that they simply can't be trusted to cover a game, even if they still have a chance to be bowl eligible. Play on GEORGIA TECH

AAA

This is an 8* on AKRON

Let's hold our nose and try again with Akron, who is the only team in the country without win this year (0-10). The Zips are also the only team without a single ATS win (0-10 ATS). But this is a tremendous amount of points to be getting against a Miami team that has nothing to play for these next two weeks. Miami clinched the MAC East with a 44-3 beatdown of Bowling Green last Wednesday. They now are in the unique spot of just waiting for the MAC Title Game. At 6-4, they are already bowl eligible. It's just about staying healthy for the MAC Championship Game at this point. There have been two times in the last three seasons that the RedHawks have been favored by at least 31 points. They won both, obviously. But they didn't cover either time.  Both games were against FCS teams. You'd have to go back a long way to find the last time Miami was favored by this many in conference play. Even though Akron is the worst team in the country, they're still "only" losing by 26 points/game. An "average" loss would have them inside the number tonight. This is the most points they've gotten in any game all season. Believe it or not, the Zips have never closed higher than +21.5.  Last year marked the first time in seven tries that Miami beat Akron by more than a touchdown. They'll have no interest in covering this huge number tonight. Play on AKRON

AAA

This is an 8* play on BAYLOR

Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada

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This is a 10* play on BALL ST

Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE

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This is a 10* on MARSHALL

Since losing 52-17 to Texas in the first game of the season, Louisiana Tech has won eight in a row. They are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games and since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged an amazing 52 points/game. They hit that number on the nose last week with a very impressive win over North Texas. That performance last week was definitely not what we were expecting. The Bulldogs are one of seven teams left without a conference loss. But they are underdogs this week at Marshall and for good reason. Marshall's defense has been excellent over the last five games, giving up just 20.4 points/game. So the Thundering Herd have what it takes to slow this La Tech attack down. The Herd have won four straight themselves and control their own destiny over in the East Division of Conference USA. This is just the third all-time meeting, so Huntington is not a place Louisiana Tech is all too familiar with. Their last visit here was the 2014 Conference USA Title Game, which they lost 26-23. Marshall is 48-18 SU its last 66 home games. Louisiana Tech's ascent is not something that was expected. At least to this height. Marshall is primed to win 8+ games for the 5th time in 6 seasons and they are off a bye. Play on MARSHALL

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This is a 10* on NORTH CAROLINA

Mack Brown's has certainly made North Carolina better. But in order for this season to be considered a success, the Tar Heels need to get to a bowl. To do that, they'll need to win two of their next three games. Next week vs. Mercer is a lock. But they'll also need to win one of two road games, this week at Pitt or the regular season finale at NC State. North Carolina has beaten Pittsburgh six straight times. Yet they are the underdog Thursday night. With the game being at Heinz Field, that makes sense. But even when UNC was struggling the last couple years, they still managed to beat the Panthers. The Tar Heels were a combined 5-18 the last two years with just two ACC wins. Both were against Pitt. Brown brings a better team in this year, one that started its season with upsets over South Carolina and Miami FL. Since then, the Heels are just 2-5. But it's worth pointing out that all five losses were one-score games. Three of those losses were by a total of six points. Pitt won the ACC Coastal last year, but still lost seven games. At 6-3 this year, they're already assured of a bowl. Were they to win out, they'd have a shot at repeating as division champs. But they haven't won a game by more than 10 points all year and half of their wins have been by a field goal or less. Brown definitely wants that bowl bid his first year back in Chapel Hill. With the success North Carolina has had in the past vs. Pitt, we've gotta grab the points in this matchup. UNC is already 3-1 ATS as a dog this year. Honestly, they may be the better team here. A Pitt offense averaging just 20.9 points/game can't really be trusted as a favorite, can it? Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is an 8* play on AKRON

Akron isn't just the worst team in the country on the field, they are also the worst team in the country at the betting window. The winless Zips have matching 0-9 straight up and against the spread records. Despite this dubious distinction, we will "take the bait" on Tuesday and grab the points with the "ugly" home dog.Eastern Michigan isn't exactly a world-beater itself. The Eagles come into this game at 4-5, needing two more wins to gain bowl eligibility. While they've got to feel good about their chances of winning tonight, them laying so many points on the road is unfamiliar. Over the last 10 seasons, EMU has been a road favorite just four times, all four coming in the last three seasons. Just one of those four times were they asked to lay more than a field. It was last year's regular season finale where bowl eligibility was on the line. They won 28-20 at Kent State, but did not cover as 13-point favorites. It's not like the Eagles have played well lately. They've lost four of five. Ten days ago, they were blown out 43-14 by Buffalo and that was at home. They haven't won a game here in Akron since the 90's. Making a case for Akron is kind of tough. But this is more of a fade on Eastern Michigan anyway. None of the Eagles four wins this year have been by more than seven points. Plus weather will be a factor tonight (snow) as the kickoff time had to be moved up two hours. Play on AKRON

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Tennessee has shown it still has a pulse by scoring 71 points the last two weeks. (They also won both games) Kentucky is off a bye, so their offense should be as healthy and ready as its been in some time. With a low total, we like this game to go Over. Part of Kentucky's problem this year has been at quarterback. But they have found a solution in the most unique of ways. Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr was moved over to QB and has dazzled with back to back virtuoso performances. Bowden has RUN for 400 yards in two starts. It's something the Tennessee defense is going to have trouble prepping for. The Wildcats haven't exactly faced the most impressive slate of offenses recently and the game vs. Missouri two weeks ago took place in a downpour. It's worth noting that before UK's last five games went Under, the first three all went Over. Tennessee has shown it can score the last two weeks. The 41-point effort against South Carolina was especially impressive. This is the third year in a row that Kentucky is favored to beat Tennessee. Before that, they'd been favored just once in 50 years! The Vols are 3-0 ATS in those three games as dogs and they've also scored at least 24 points the last five meetings, including three games with at least 49 points. Play OVER Tennessee-Kentucky

AAA

This is a 9* on NORTH TEXAS

Most of the teams without a conference loss should be familiar to you as they are also unbeaten on the year. There are a few exceptions to this "rule," and the one you probably know the least about is Louisiana Tech out of Conference USA. The Bulldogs are 4-0 against the rest of the conference and coming off a bye this week. Their only loss this year was against Texas, which was the first game of the season. They've since won seven straight games against what we'd have to call one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. Here is who La Tech has beaten this year: Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss and UTEP. Take Southern Miss and FIU out of the equation and that's some of the worst teams in the country. Grambling is a FCS team while the other four opponents have a combined 5-30 SU record. North Texas just clobbered UTEP last week, 56-22, which snapped a 4-game ATS losing streak. The Mean Green were favored to win the West Division in C-USA this year, so this is a huge game for them. They are two back of La Tech in the loss column. The home team has not fared in this rivalry, losing six of the last eight matchups. The underdog has won outright four straight times. North Texas QB Mason Fine threw 7 TD passes last week and he could be the difference in this one. Play on NORTH TEXAS 

AAA

This is an 8* on TROY

Last week saw Georgia Southern pull off a big upset over Applachian State, the second year in a row they beat the Mountaineers. Troy, another team from the Sun Belt, wasn't quite as fortunate as they lost by one point at Coastal Carolina. Having to come back and lay points on the road seems like a trap for a team that is off its biggest win of the season. Georgia Southern has won four in a row, but three of those wins were by exactly three points. Three of their four road games this season have been three-point games. The other was a 55-3 loss to LSU. The only other time the Eagles were favored on the road, they failed to cover (-10 at South Alabama). Troy lost on a 2-point conversion last week. Coastal Carolina scored a touchdown in the final 30 seconds to make it a 35-34 game, then converted the 2-pt play for the win. Troy lost despite 500 yards of offense and trailing for just over three minutes of actual game time.If this scenario sounds familiar, last week we took a team that was coming off a loss as a favorite (South Carolina) against a team that had just pulled an upset the previous week (Vanderbilt). The final score there was 24-7. Troy had won 10 or more games three years running, so at 3-5 this can be classified as a disappointing season. The Trojans may need to win out just to get to a bowl. It's Homecoming. They've beaten Ga Southern two years in a row. They should win here. Play on TROY

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Given where this number opened, there still seems to be a real lack of faith in Baylor. The Bears are unbeaten (8-0), but were ranked only 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. There are six teams with at least one loss ranked ahead of the Bears and two with two losses! We're here to say that we do have faith that Matt Rhule's team can win the Big 12 this year. The schedule has set up nicely so far and looking forward, both Oklahoma and Texas have to come to Waco. There have been some close wins along the way (three by a field goal or less), including last week. But off the previous two close wins, Baylor came back to win the next game by 19 and 18 points. Over the last 40 years, there have been only nine times where a team that was 8-0 or better found itself favored by a field goal or less on the road. Those nine unbeatens have responded by going 7-2 ATS! That's the situation Baylor is in here. TCU is 4-4 with three losses by seven points or less. The last time they were at home, they beat Texas 37-27. But in last week's 34-27 loss at Oklahoma State, they lost two quarterbacks to injury! A third QB on the roster decided to transfer out of the program this week! The expectation is that starter Max Duggan will play Saturday, but he fell to the turf hard last week, injuring his shoulder. He won't be at 100%.  Baylor didn't look that great last Thursday against West Virginia. They won 17-14, which was the fewest points scored in any game all year for them. But getting extra time to prepare for an opponent they know well should help. TCU has beaten Baylor four years in a row, so that's even more motivation for the Bears besides wanting to stay unbeaten. Play on BAYLOR

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington is off two gut-wrenching defeats, both at home. They were underdogs against both Oregon and Utah. What's interesting about that is that prior to those two games, the Huskies had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's 2nd year here in Seattle. They led Oregon by two touchdowns in the second half (lost 35-31) and then were up going into the 4th quarter last week against Utah (lost 33-28). Now the Huskies go from home dog to road favorite. It's a bit of a dangerous spot facing a suddenly hot Oregon State team. But this is a game Washington should win big. They are 5-2 ATS in the games they've been favored to win this year. Washington is 8-1 this decade vs. OSU including seven straight wins. Six of those wins have been by double digits. Oregon State's resurgence has largely come at the expense of the bottom of the Pac 12. The Beavers have beaten UCLA, Cal and Arizona, all of those wins coming on the road, ironically enough. Washington may not be a Top 25 team in the eyes of the committee, but they still are to us. They are 3-0 SU and ATS off back to back losses under Petersen, two of the wins coming against Oregon State. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

These schools have met just one time. It was last year and Coastal Carolina won 30-28 as a three-point underdog. That was on the road. This year, the Chanticleers get to host the Ragin Cajuns, but are actually much bigger underdogs. Louisiana has been one of the best ATS teams in the country this year. They are 7-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was against Appalachian State, a 17-7 loss. The only other team to beat them was Mississippi State back in the first game of the season. While this won't be the highest total for either team, ULL has gone Under in three straight games. They also haven't allowed more than 25 points in any game since that loss to Mississippi State. Coastal Carolina has been quite the opposite with five of their last six games going Over the total. Their defense hasn't been great. Home games, on average, have tended to be lower scoring though. Look for Louisiana to run the ball a lot in this game. They'll be effective at doing so, but it will also keep the clock moving. Play UNDER Louisiana-Coastal Carolina

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami and Ohio meet Wednesday in the 96th "Battle of the Bricks." Ohio has won this rivalry game 11 of the past 14 years under coach Frank Solich, including six straight times at home. But last year it was Miami pulling a 30-28 upset as four-point home underdogs. Both teams are 3-1 in conference play. In each case, the teams won their respective MAC openers, lost the next game, then have followed with two wins in a row. Neither played this past Saturday, obviously.Miami has gone 19-7 straight up its last 26 MAC games as coach Chuck Martin is doing a good job here. The last two wins have both been upsets as the Redhawks beat Northern Illinois 27-24 at home than Kent State 23-16 on the road. They've actually been favored only one time all season! Ohio was an underdog its last time out (+2), a 34-21 win at Ball State. Unlike past years, the Bobcats have not been invincible at home here in 2019. They've already lost twice, once to Louisiana and then to the Northern Illinois team that Miami recently defeated.  We expect this to be a close game that could go either way. Ohio's defense has been more than just a little "leaky" at home as they've given up 45, 39 and 38 points the last three times playing here. Is it any wonder that the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS as favorites this season? Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

This will be the first time since 2010 that Toledo hasn't had to lay double digits to Kent State. It's only the fourth meeting since then for the in-state rivals, but the short price shouldn't come as a total shock. Toledo has suffered some bad losses this year while Kent State looks improved. They've been outscored by 41 points in four MAC games, but if Toledo wins out they could very well win the West Division for the second time in three years. The problem is a leaky defense that has given up 86 points the last two weeks. After getting lambasted by Ball State (52-14), the Rockets barely beat Eastern Michigan last week, winning 37-34 in overtime. Toledo averages 35.2 PPG at home, which is two full touchdowns more than what they average outside the Glass Bowl. Kent State's defense is giving up nearly 500 yards/game on the road, so this easily could turn into a shootout Tuesday night. Last year was a 56-34 game, won by Toledo, who was an 11.5-point favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Toledo's last six Tuesday games. That's about to change. Take away the dreadful effort against Bowling Green (on the road) and the Rockets have scored plenty in almost every other game. Kent State took some lumps against Power 5 teams, but is an improved team on offense. Play OVER Kent State-Toledo

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This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina is 3-5 and off a surprising loss while Vanderbilt is 2-5 and off a surprising win. We believe last week's results set up a nice play on the favorite. Despite losing 41-21 to Tennessee last week, South Carolina actually led at halftime. That makes it three times this year that they've lost a game in which they led in the second half. They are better than their record. Vanderbilt has had all sorts of trouble covering the spread this year. They are 1-6 ATS and that one cover was two weeks ago, a stunning 21-14 upset of Missouri as three touchdown underdogs. The Commodores have only been favored two times, so it's mostly been them getting blown out. Despite being off a bye, QB Mo Hasan still has not been cleared to return from a concussion. Monitor his status. Three weeks ago, South Carolina stunned all of College Football by upsetting Georgia. They haven't won since! A loss to Florida wasn't that big of a deal but getting beat last week by Tennessee was certainly disappointing. The Gamecocks were actually four-point road favorites in the 41-21 loss. Because of what happened last week, look for South Carolina to come out very motivated Saturday night. They will be playing without RB Dowdle, but should still move the ball just fine against a Vandy defense that's giving up an average of 33.6 points per game. Stopping a Vandy offense that averages an SEC low 18.4 points/game shouldn't be a problem either. Vandy lost at home to UNLV for crying out loud. South Carolina is 23-4 all-time vs. Vanderbilt and has won 10 straight by an average of 11 points/game. Last year was a 23-point game in Columbia. Nothing changes this year. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS

SMU (8-0) heads to Memphis (7-1) this week looking to stay undefeated. But they are underdogs to a team they haven't beaten in five years. Furthermore, the Mustangs have lost those five games by an average of 30 points/game. SMU is undoubtedly improved this year. But they've won a lot of games they easily could have lost. Wins over Arkansas State and TCU were decided by 7 and 3 points respectively. They needed overtime to beat a 2-win Tulsa team. Last week saw them get outgained by 125 yards in a 34-31 win at undermanned Houston. Memphis is also ranked and we feel they are pretty clearly the better team. While the Tigers did lose at Temple a few weeks ago and barely survived Tulsa last week, they've posted five double digit victories so far and also beat an SEC team (Ole Miss). We are calling for an end to SMU's unbeaten season as they should lose this game by double digits. Memphis is simply better, which is why they are the favorite. Well, that and they are at home. The Tigers have won 17 of the last 19 home games. A big key is that they allow just 18.5 points/game here at the Liberty Bowl. This is the end of the line for SMU, at least when it comes to their hopes of playing in the Cotton Bowl. We're seeing unbeaten teams drop like flies the past few weeks and this is going to be a rabid crowd they're in front of as this is a primetime, national TV game. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in November the last two years. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

This rivalry may not mean what it used to, but the games are generally closely contested and emotions still run high. Florida State won a series record seven straight from 2010-16, but has lost the last two. The road team has won 9 of the last 13 matchups and 15 of the last 17 have been one-score games. Despite this, the favorite is 7-1 the last eight years. Neither team is ranked right now. But Miami is off a big upset win over Pitt, bringing them to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. They beat Pitt 16-12 despite gaining only 208 total yards. That was the third time this season that the Hurricanes won a game in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Their four losses have all been by seven points or less with the difference being they've allowed an average of 30.5 points in the four losses as opposed to 8.25 in the four wins. Florida State is off a 35-17 win over Syracuse. They too are 4-4 overall, but they're 3-3 in conference play. The Seminoles have scored 31 or more points in all four wins this year while being held to just over 22 points/game in the four losses. With FSU being favored in this game, we should expect one of the better offensive showings. It's just the way it seems to work. It's interesting that their last five games have all stayed Under. But totals for those five games were all much higher than this one. This will be the lowest total for any Florida State game this season. While quarterback is a question mark for both teams, the running game isn't. Cam Akers has run for more than 300 yards in the last two games for Florida State. Miami RB DeeJay Dallas, who didn't play last week, averages 6.7 yards per carry. It is important to note that Jarren Williams is starting at QB for Miami. He began the season as the starter before hurting his shoulder. Williams is better than N'Kosi Perry, whom he replaced last week and then led the come from behind victory. Play OVER Miami-Florida State

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This is an 8* play on NEBRASKA

So much for that Nebraska improvement this year. Well, to be fair, the Cornhuskers are probably going to win more games in 2019 than they did in 2018. They've already equaled last season's win total of 4. But anyone thinking the Big 10 West would run through Lincoln has to be severely disappointed as the 'Huskers won't be winning the division this year. But Purdue won't either. The Boilermakers have been hit hard by injuries, specifically QB Elijah Sanders and WR Rondale Moore, which is most of their offense. Moore is questionable for Saturday after missing the last four games. Sindelar probably isn't coming back at this point. Backup Jack Plummer was a disaster last week vs. Illinois, going 7 of 19 for only 69 yards. He was benched twice, both times after turnovers that led to Illini scores. There was some thought to benching Plummer permanently, but coach Jeff Brohm changed his mind. So there's no clear direction in West Lafayette. Meanwhile, Nebraska is going to get back their starting QB back. Adrian Martinez should be the difference. Before the year, no one would have thought Nebraska would lose this game. They won't. Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE

Syracuse has lost three straight. Talk about a dropoff. The Orange were 10-3 last year, their best season in years. Losing a four-year starting QB meant they were probably going to struggle this year. But it's not necessarily been Tommy DeVito's fault that the team is 3-5. The offensive line has failed to protect him, giving up the most sacks in the country. The Cuse don't have a win over a Power 5 team yet. But that should change this week hosting Boston College. B.C. lost 59-7 at Clemson last week. That was their 4th loss in 6 games. While there have been seven upsets in the last nine meetings here and the visitor has won the last three, we don't see it happening again here. Boston College is giving up a lot more points than usual, including 38.7 points/game on the road. The defense is last in the ACC in third downs and at stopping the pass. The offense is totally one-dimensional with a backup QB. Syracuse remains a good home team, so they should cover this small number. They are also 8-3 ATS coming off a game where they scored 20 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Northern Illinois is having a down year. Really, so is the entire MAC. Central Michigan has been one of the few pleasant surprises in the conference. After going 1-11 last season, the Chippewas are 5-4, but they did lose badly last week 43-20 at Buffalo. That came after three straight games scoring at least 38 points. The game at Buffalo still did go Over though, so that's four Overs in a row for CMU. Northern Illinois has gone Over three straight as they did all the scoring last week against Akron in a 49-0 win. But that was Akron. The Huskies aren't exactly a high-scoring outfit. They average just 21.2 points/game at home. They had only 71 yards passing against Akron, but didn't need any more than that as they had two defensive scores. Central Michigan also allowed a defensive score in its game last week. They also gave up two more touchdowns on drives that started inside their own 25-yard line. Take those defensive scores away and all of a sudden the games are a lot more low scoring. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-Central Michigan

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Baylor is 7-0 and ranked #12 in the country heading into Thursday night's clash with 3-4 West Virginia. Normally, this might be a spot you'd want to fade the undefeated team, but Baylor is well rested and out for revenge. They've lost the last three times they've played the Mountaineers, but obviously circumstances were a lot different. It was WVU ranked each of those three years while Baylor has been rebuilding under Matt Rhule. That rebuild is now over as the Bears are the only Big 12 team without a conference loss. West Virginia is now the one rebuilding under a first year coach and several freshman are playing in key positions. While there have been a fair number of close calls for Baylor, they sure impressed us when they went into Stillwater two weeks ago and beat Oklahoma State 45-27. Aside from an upset over NC State, West Virginia has not impressed anybody. They've lost three straight - all by double digits - and the last two weeks have seen the offense do next to nothing. They scored 14 points against both Iowa State and Oklahoma while the defense gave up 90. QB Kendall is averaging just 10 yards per completion and has 7 interceptions. The running game is really bad, averaging only 88 yards/game, which is sixth worst in the entire country. The Baylor offense ranks 12th in the country, averaging 38.9 points/game. The defense allows just 19.1 points/game. We are surprised to see WVU is just 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons (1-4 in 2019). Expect a blowout. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON STATE

Did you know that Washington State has covered nine times in a row against Oregon? Or that they've beaten the Ducks on the field each of the last four years? Most people probably don't know the answer to both of those questions is "yes" and will happily lay the points here. Not us. Now this play is not being made solely out of anger over our loss with last week's "Game of the Year" play. But what we witnessed in that Oregon-Washington game does obviously have some bearing. The Ducks ran 13 more plays in that game, yet gained only 20 more total yards. At one point, Washington (the underdog) led by 14 points. Oregon was in the lead for only one-quarter of actual game time. They led 7-0 for about nine minutes in the first quarter and then the final 5:10 after the go-ahead score. The defense was exposed a little bit in giving up 6.8 yards per play to Washington. Say what you will about Washington State, but we know the Cougs can score. They are 4th nationally in total offense. Getting points is a luxury they've gotten to have only other time this year. While that game (at Utah) didn't go well, the amount of points they were getting in that game was far less than what they are getting here. Oregon is just 4-12 the last 16 times they've been off an ATS win. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

Playing the Over here is the ultimate contrarian call seeing as Cal is 6-1 to the Under and so is Utah. Cal's last three games have all gone Under. So have Utah's last five. But this is a REALLY low total for a College Football game being played in 2019. Utah has had some games with totals in the 60's. This will be the lowest total in any game for either team this season and could close as the lowest total all year in College Football the way things are going. Only two Utah games this year have seen less than 42 points scored. One was a shutout of Idaho State, who is a FCS team. The other was last week's 21-3 win over Arizona State. Cal definitely struggles to put points on the board and will probably struggle here too. But they can score enough to get this one Over. Yes, we know they may have to turn to an untested starter. But this number is just too low not to bet it Over. Play OVER Cal-Utah

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This is an 8* play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Central Michigan is now 5-3 after winning its last three games. Two of their three losses have come against Power 5 teams and one of them was by just five at Miami. This Saturday, the Chippewas are getting points from a Buffalo team that hasn't exactly been impressive. The Bulls are 3-4, but two of the wins were against Robert Morris and winless Akron. The other was a real shocker vs. Temple as they were 14-point underdogs heading into that contest. But that game saw them catching Temple off its own big upset the week prior against Maryland. Bottom line is we feel CMU is the better team here. Buffalo has has lots of trouble scoring this year. The Temple win marked the only time in 2019 that the Bulls scored more than 21 points against a FBS team. They failed to gain even 250 yards last week vs. Akron, a game where they were gifted four turnovers. They've yet to cover off a straight up win this year. Central Michigan had almost 600 yards of offense in its 38-20 win over Bowling Green last Saturday. They are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year. This is a major revenge game for the Chippewas too as they haven't forgotten losing to UB 34-24 at home last year. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN

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This is an 8* play on AKRON 

If you think Akron is the worst team in the country, we can't blame you. The Zips aren't just 0-7 straight up. They are also 0-7 against the spread! Only two other teams (Rice, New Mexico State) don't have a win of the straight up variety. Every team besides the Zips have covered at least once. They've even lost to a UMass team that many would consider the worst team in the country. But while most have given up on Akron, we'll back them this week at Northern Illinois. Obviously, you won't be shocked to learn they are getting a ton of points here. Northern Illinois is not the same juggernaut they once were though. They are 2-5 with one win coming by three points and the other against a FCS team. Last week, as two-point favorites, the Huskies lost at Miami. Consider that NIU doesn't even average enough points/game to cover this spread. They are averaging just 21.4 points/game for the year. Even though the offense was shutout, Akron's defense played pretty well last week. They held Buffalo under 250 yards. They lost 21-0 but that would be a cover with this pointspread. Only two of the Zips losses have been by a larger number than this pointspread. You know they won't go the full season without covering a game. Last year's game was close. Akron was an extra point away from tying, but had that blocked and returned for two points the other way. Northern Illinois would then intercept a pass and return that for a TD, making it a misleading 36-26 final. Play on AKRON

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This is a 10* on NORTHWESTERN

At 5-2 and 1-5 respectively, it would seem that Iowa and Northwestern are "worlds apart" this season. However, this is still a conference rivalry. Neither record should be surprising as Iowa has won the five times it has been favored and lost the two times it has been an underdog. Northwestern has only been favored in one game this year (UNLV) and that's their only win (30-14). The Wildcats are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State. The two road games (Wisconsin, Nebraska) were actually the tighter games, but let's not go disregarding Pat Fitzgerald's record as a home underdog just yet, okay? Northwestern has beaten Iowa three years in a row including a 14-10 win last year in Iowa City that clinched the Big 10 West. The Wildcats were 10-point road underdogs in that game, now they're getting a near identical number in Evanston. Iowa has not scored more than 26 points in any of its last four conference games. So you have to wonder if they are built to cover double digits on the road. The only other time the Hawkeyes were a road favorite this year (at Iowa State), they did not cover. They've actually only covered two games all year and those were against Rutgers and Middle Tennessee. The memory of Northwestern getting killed by Ohio State last Friday is what set this line. The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Play on NORTHWESTERN

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This is a 10* on COLORADO

USC is coming off a 41-14 win over Arizona where they were 10.5-point home favorites. But let's not forget that this team is still only 4-3 and has used three different quarterbacks in 2019. All three losses have taken place out on the road and this Friday finds them in Boulder taking on Colorado. Quarterback isn't the only position where USC is dealing with injuries either. Three running backs are injured. The top two definitely won't play in this game. As impressive as the Trojans looked last week, it was just their second win of the season by more than eight points. They were also a little lucky to beat Utah (also on a Friday) early in the year and have lost as road favorites before (at BYU).  We will concede the point that Colorado hasn't played well recently. The Buffaloes have lost three in a row and four of their last five games. The last two games were both blowout losses, but those losses were at Oregon and Washington State, which are two tough places to play. Often, it can be something as simple as homefield advantage that can sway things in a positive direction. Colorado has already pulled one upset this year in Boulder, beating Nebraska. Their two losses (at home) were both one score games. Bet on the Buffaloes being motivated as they've never been able to beat USC in 13 all-time tries, including eight as Pac 12 rivals. It's not like they needed any added motivation already being on a 3-game losing streak. USC is just 1-4 ATS the L5 times they've been off an ATS win and they are 1-6 ATS their last seven Friday games. This is all about value as Southern Cal is favored by too many points. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

SMU is one of the highest scoring teams in the country at 44.3 points per game. The fewest points they've scored in any game this year was 37 and that was in the very first game. Since then, it's been at least 41 in every game. With a range of 37 to 49 points scored in all games, the Mustangs have certainly been consistent. All seven of their games have gone Over so far. No other team has gone Over in every game. In all four of Houston's losses this year, they've allowed at least 31 points. If you take away Houston's two weakest opponents this year, which would be Prairie View A&M and Connecticut, the defensive numbers get real ugly. But help is on the way offensively as QB Clayton Tune is set to make his return to field. The last game Tune started and finished, the Cougars scored 46 points. They may not be as high-powered as they were when D'Eriq King was the quarterback, but Houston should still be respected offensively. They should score in the 30's while SMU should top 40 and that means the Over will hit again for the favorite. Play OVER SMU-HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on UNDER

It's the usual late start out in Hawaii (11 PM easter) with Air Force making the trip out to Honolulu. Both teams enter this game with a 4-2 record. However, one won last week (Air Force) while the other (Hawaii obviously!) lost. The only thing the last two Hawaii games have in common is the winner scored a lot of points. It was them putting up 54 in thrashing of Nevada on September 28th. But then they gave up 59 last week to Boise State. Air Force obviously runs a much different offense than most teams with the triple option. While the Flyboys have scored 40 or more in every home game, they are averaging just under 25 PPG on the road. The run first approach should theoretically shorten this game. Last week, the Falcons attempted only three passes in their 43-24 win over Fresno State. They did run for 340 yards. But this total is much higher than all their other games this year. Hawaii has been involved in some wild ones so far, but they've also faced three Pac 12 teams + Boise State. Most of the offenses they go up against the rest of the way will be weaker than what they've already gone against. Don't discount the effect the trip itself might have on the Air Force offense. Hawaii has one of the most unique home field advantages in the sport. These two high-powered offenses should each "slow down" a bit Saturday night. Play UNDER Air Force-Hawaii

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This is an 8* play on RICE

Let's get this out right away. UTSA is 0-14 ATS its L14 home games where the total falls into the range of 42.5 to 49 points. Maybe that trend doesn't sound so meaningful to you, but what should be meaningful to everyone is the fact that 0-6 Rice is giving points on the road. That, right there, should be a signal as to how bad this UTSA team is. The Roadrunners are 2-4, but their two wins were against UTEP and Incarnate Word. The way we see it, there are only three FBS that UTSA would be favored against regardless of locale ... UTEP, Akron and UMass. They already faced UTEP and won't see the other two on the schedule. So don't expect UTSA to win another game. Rice has not won many games the last few years, but even they've beaten UTEP twice since 2016 and did so by margins much greater than what UTSA pulled off two weeks ago. While winless in 2019, Rice has played two good teams - Army and Baylor - tough. They probably should have beaten Army (lost 14-7 on a late TD). Last week at UAB was a one-point game at halftime before the Blazers scored back to back touchdowns, the second coming off a turnover. Three of Rice's six losses have been by eight points or less. With the season now half over, the Owls have to figure this is their best shot at winning (they will play at UTEP in the final regular season game). Having lost four straight times to UTSA, the motivation is going to be really high on the Rice sideline. Can't say the same for UTSA. Play on RICE

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This is an 8* play on KENTUCKY

Georgia is off one of the most shocking losses of the year (to South Carolina) and dropped to #10 in the rankings as a result. The Bulldogs were 20.5 point favorites and outgained the Gamecocks 468-297. But they still lost, primarily due to four turnovers (one was a pick-six) and finally a missed FG by the uber-reliable kicker Rodrigo Blankenship in double overtime. After a loss like, the expectation will be for Georgia to come out with a vengeance. But be wary of laying this big number against a dangerous Kentucky team. While the Wildcats aren't quite the same caliber as they were a year ago (when they won 10 games), they'll relish being big underdogs in this spot. They beat Arkansas last week, despite having a backup quarterback. In Lexington, they are hoping that starter Sawyer Smith is back this week. But if he isn't, backup Lynn Bowden has proven himself serviceable. Remember South Carolina beat Georgia last week despite being down to its THIRD string QB. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS off their previous four victories. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS its last five home games. The Bulldogs have covered six in a row in this SEC East rivalry, but their confidence is shaky right now as is the offense. Look for UK to stay within the number. Play on KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

The biggest game of the season in the Pac 12 North is set to go down this Saturday in Seattle and it just so happens to be our biggest play of the entire College Football regular season. Washington hosts Oregon in a battle of top 25 teams. Washington just found its way back into the polls after 51-27 win over Arizona last week. The Huskies had been upset the previous week, on the road, as 17-point favorites by Stanford. It was their second time losing outright as a double digit favorite as Cal also got them back in Week 2. Oregon comes in flying high off a 45-3 beatdown over Colorado last Friday night. Since that game was on national television, the perception of this Ducks team is probably the highest its been all year. Oregon has lost just one time, the season opener vs. Auburn, and that was a game they led for 59 minutes. Since then, they've allowed 25 points in five games, beating both Stanford and Cal along the way. But this will clearly be the Ducks toughest test since the Auburn game and probably the rest of the season. Oregon had seized control of this rivalry for a long time, but then it was Washington winning convincingly in both 2016 and 2017 by a combined 84 points. Last year's game went to overtime with Oregon winning 30-27 as three-point underdogs - in Eugene. So its a revenge game for Washington, not to mention also a must-win seeing as a third conference loss would all but kill their chances of winning this division. The game taking place in Seattle is very meaningful. Washington is 13-2 its previous 15 Pac 12 home games. Oregon is 4-11 its last 15 Pac 12 road games. The Huskies can also play some defense as the 27 points given up last week, in a 24-point victory, ironically were a season-high. Led by QB Jacob Eason, the offense also happened to score a season-high in points. This is going to be a much tougher game than what Oregon has been experiencing over the last month and it will be interesting to see how they react, especially on the road. It has been a long time since Washington was an underdog at home. The year was 2015, just Chris Petersen's second as head coach here. So this opportunity doesn't arise very often. We love the value here on a team that hasn't been beaten by more than one possession in three years. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on UNLV

UNLV shocked a lot of people when they beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. It wasn't just that the Rebels won; they did so by 24 as a 16-point underdog. Something to keep in mind is that this was a 1-win team that went across the country and beat an SEC team. UNLV's only prior win was against Southern Utah. The four losses that followed had many questioning the future of coach Tony Sanchez. In none of those four losses did the Rebels score more than 17 points. Two unheralded players led the offensive resurgence. QB Oblad, only starting because of an injury to Armani Rogers, had an efficient game as he threw for 10.8 yards per attempt. RB Chad Maygar went for a career-best 116 yards. While this UNLV team obviously still has a way to go, this week's opponent appears to be on a downward trajectory after winning 22 games the last two years. Fresno State lost 43-24 against Air Force last week, which dropped them to 2-3 on the year. Now the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three losses. But they were only a three-point dog last week. Their two wins have been by 13 and 14 points, so oddsmakers are asking FSU to do something this week that they have not been able to do all season and that's win a game by more than two touchdowns. The Bulldogs defense got gashed on the ground last week by Air Force as it clearly wore down late. This is just a lot of points to lay for a team that hasn't looked all that good this season. UNLV is 10-5 ATS its past 15 road games. Play on UNLV

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This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE

Syracuse seems to have taken a bit of a step back this year. The Orange are 3-3, so unless they win out, they're going to end up with a worse record than last season. A horrible showing against Maryland will probably haunt them the rest of the season, but there was no shame in losing to either Clemson or at North Carolina State. We actually faded the Orange in last Thursday's trip to Raleigh. They only lost 16-10 though despite allowing eight sacks and rushing 37 times for only 41 yards. The NC State defense is pretty special, which is something we're not sure we can say about Pitt's. The Panthers have allowed at least 30 points in half their games this year. They did hold Penn State in check, but this is a team that's had to hit the road only one other time and that was two weeks ago when they beat Duke by a field goal. Pitt has won three in a row, but those three wins have been by seven total points. Against Duke, they blew a 23-point lead and needed a last minute touchdown for the 33-30 win. The Blue Devils certainly helped by turning the ball over six times. Remember that Syracuse started the year ranked in the top 25. QB DeVito has 9 TDs vs. 1 INT the L3 games, so he's played well despite being under constant pressure. The Orange lost this game last year, in overtime, 44-37 as a three-point road favorite. Time for them to turn the tide.  Play on SYRACUSE

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Louisiana was the last team in the country to lose a game ATS. The loss happened last week at home to Appalachian State (who is still undefeated straight up), 17-7. It was quite the departure offensively for a Ragin Cajuns team that had scored 35 points or more four games in a row. They were held to just over 250 total yards as well. Appalachian State had the answer for what had been a dominant Louisiana run game, holding them to just 123 yards on 33 carries. For us, the game was a 45-point win on the Under! You'd hope that game at least provided a blueprint for Arkansas State, who has struggled defensively in 2019. Virtually all of the Red Wolves games this year have been high-scoring. The fewest total points scored in any ASU game is 55 and that ironically saw them allow all 55 (shutout loss to Georgia). Oddsmakers have taken note, however, and jacked up the O/U for this game. The Red Wolves have scored 90 points the last two years against Louisiana, but this game promises to be lower-scoring. The Ragin Cajuns defense has allowed more than 25 points in just one game and that was vs. Mississippi State. They are the top Sun Belt defense in terms of points allowed and just outside the top 30 nationally. While most are going to anticipate this being a shootout, you can look for it to stay Under as that's what 11 of ASU's last 16 conference games have done. Play UNDER UL Lafayette-Arkansas State

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This is a 10* on SOUTH ALABAMA

At 2-3, Troy has the same number of losses as they had all of last year. They haven't lost more than three games in any season since 2015, which was Neal Brown's first. Brown is gone to West Virginia and he obviously he took the program's mojo with him. The new coaching staff is struggling here as the Trojans have already lost twice as favorites (Southern Miss, Arkansas St) and then 42-10 to Missouri. All 42 points were allowed in the first half before Missouri lost its starting QB to injury. Troy also lost its starting QB in the first half with Kaleb Barker going down with an undisclosed injury. Barker was averaging 341.8 YPG passing going into the Missouri game. His absence would be significant. On the other side of the ball, Troy's defense gave up a touchdown on six consecutive drives vs. Missouri. While South Alabama's offense has not been particularly good this year, we think they are going to find success here through the air. Troy's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency. The Trojans are just 4-10 ATS their L14 home games and the home team has lost this in-state rivalry game four straight years. They've already lost outright as favorites twice this year. South Alabama has covered six of the last seven times it has been a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points and 8-2 ATS off back to back losses. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win.  The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State

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This is an 8* play on USC

Notre Dame has had a couple close calls with the pointspread the last two weeks. That may seem like an odd statement for a team coming off a 52-0 victory last week, but they were actually favored to beat Bowling Green by 45.5. The week prior they took advantage of some late turnovers to down Virginia 35-20 as 10.5-point favorites. Believe us when we saw that the Fighting Irish wouldn't have won that game had they not been +5 in turnovers. The week before that was the loss to Georgia. So it's been a bit of an exhausting stretch for Brian Kelly's team and now USC comes to South Bend for a Saturday night battle. The Trojans were off last week and we love the spot for them getting this many points. Two weeks ago, they upset Utah despite having to turn to third string QB Matt Fink. Fink threw for 381 yards in that game but came back down to Earth against Washington, throwing three costly interceptions in a 28-14 loss. Despite the final score, USC slightly outgained Washington in that contest. The same was true in the Trojans other loss, which was by three at BYU in overtime. Kedon Slovis has been cleared to return from a concussion this week and will get the start. Though Fink had the big game vs. Utah, consider Slovis an upgrade at the position. The Fighting Irish have covered four straight games, but their "luck" runs out here. You should expect Slovis and the USC offense to take better care of the football than previous ND opponents have. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on NEBRASKA

Minnesota has managed to stay unbeaten, but four of its five wins have been by no more than seven points. Last week's 40-17 triumph over Illinois is the outlier. At the start of the year, we certainly didn't envision Nebraska being a seven-point underdog in this game. No one did. But the Cornhuskers have suffered two defeats already, one to Ohio State, and are dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback heading into Saturday. Adrian Martinez had to leave last week's game vs. Northwestern with a knee injury and did not return. The team is preparing as if backup Noah Vedral is going to get the call and that's fine by us. Vedral followed coach Scott Frost to Lincoln as a UCF transfer. It's telling that Minnesota still isn't ranked despite its 5-0 start. We've got these teams rated pretty evenly and that's even after factoring in the Gophers homefield advantage. This line seems to be an overreaction to the Nebraska QB situation, which we feel is unwarranted. The Cornhuskers are 8-4 ATS their previous 12 road games. Last year, they were winless coming into the Minnesota game and won 53-28. Again, the Gophers struggled to get by the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They only beat Purdue by 7 despite the Boilermakers losing both their starting QB and top receiver in that game. It would be great if Martinez could play, but we're prepared to roll with Vedral if necessary. Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Sparty simply didn't have the horses to keep up with Ohio State last Saturday night in Columbus. The game got away from them late in the second quarter when the Buckeyes put 10 points on the board in the final 2:24 to go into halftime with a 27-10 halftime advantage. It is worth pointing out that - absent the second quarter - they held Ohio State to one touchdown in the other three quarters. Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin back to back weeks on the road almost seems unfair, but this matchup should be more friendly from the Michigan State perspective. Wisconsin is less athletic and less dynamic in the passing game. We know the Badgers will lean heavily on the road, but that plays right into the hands of Mark Dantonio's defense, which ranked 1st in the country at stopping the run last year and is 21st so far this year. The Spartans haven't had many bad years under Dantonio. Really, an injury-riddled and unfortunate 2016 (where they went 3-9) was the only one. Take that season away and they've gone 10-1 SU the week after suffering a double digit loss and the only loss in the situation was by a field goal. This is a lot of points for Wisconsin to lay in what should be a methodical, grind it out type game. They've been blowing out lesser teams so far (including Michigan), but struggled to get by Northwestern here in Madison and this should be a similar kind of game against a more talented opponent. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Though currently unranked, we think the Spartans are still a Top 25 team. We don't see them being blown out back to back weeks. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE

Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon

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This is a 10* Play on NEW MEXICO

This rivalry in the Mountain West Conference has squarely belonged to Colorado State in recent years. The Rams have beaten New Mexico nine straight times and covered five of the last six. However, it's not like the Lobos haven't been getting closer. They lost by only two points (20-18) in Fort Collins a year ago and then by only three the last time CSU came to Albuquerque. Losing by double digits to San Jose State last Friday wasn't a good look for New Mexico, who continues to play "quarterback roulette."  Bob Davie has had six different QB's start the last 25 games, none of which have had very much success. But Colorado State coming in as a road favorite just reeks. The Rams haven't even beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win was 38-13 over Western Illinois. They've lost four straight since their own QB, Colin Hill, was lost for the season against Arkansas. New Mexico has won both home games this year. There was an excuse for the Lobos losing 32-21 at San Jose State last week and that excuse was six turnovers. Take better care of the football this week and they can pull the upset. Colorado State has turned it over 16 times in six games. They've also lost outright three of the previous six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Another disadvantage the Rams face here is their last game was Saturday while New Mexico played last Friday. Play on NEW MEXICO

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This is an 8* play on NC STATE

Syracuse and North Carolina State are both 3-2 entering Thursday night's ACC matchup, but it feels like whomever loses this game is going to see their season go south in a hurry. Syracuse won 10 games last year. But having to replace the school's all-time passing leader was going to be a chore. After opening the season with a 24-0 win over Liberty (whose coach Hugh Freeze was literally laying in bed), the Orange were subsequently squeezed by both Maryland and Clemson. They lost those games by a combined score of 104-26. They've since beaten Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but that doesn't mean much given the nature of the opponents. They're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, especially on defense, but they're also still using a backup center. Six freshman started the game vs. Holy Cross. QB DeVito had to leave that game with an upper body injury, but will play in this game. Speaking of quarterbacks, NC State turns to a new one Thursday as Bailey Hockman replaces the ineffective Matthew McKay. The Wolfpack like to throw and McKay simply wasn't getting the ball downfield the way coach Doeren wanted. NC State is on a three-game ATS losing streak and was beaten soundly by both West Virginia and Florida State. But they are 3-0 in Raleigh this year and 14-2 their last 16 at home. Syracuse is 4-16 SU on the ACC road since 2014. A change in quarterback should lead to better results for the home team this week as NC State actually played better than you think in the 31-13 loss to Florida State as total yardage and first downs were basically dead even. Play on NORTH CAROLINA STATE

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE

You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points.  Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on the OVER

UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB 

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This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA 

Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA

West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO

Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO

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This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA

South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA

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This is an 8* play on UTAH

Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA.  And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE 

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This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE

Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016.  Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE

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This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

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This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH)

Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland

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This is a 10* Play on VA TECH

While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

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This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS

Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME

Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME

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