We like the Ohio State @ Notre Dame game to finish UNDER the total on Monday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Ohio State looks to be the more dominant force in this Championship Game.

The Buckeyes are allowing the least amount of total yards and passing yards a game this season.

OSU have seen the total stay UNDER in eight of their L12 games this season.

Notre Dame is a run first football team. Its going to look to its two running-backs (Love and Price) to create most of the damage.

Four of the last five games that they've played against each other in have finished UNDER the total.

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We like the Ohio State Buckeyes to defeat the Texas Longhorns on Friday at 4:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Ohio State crushed an undefeated Oregon team in the Quarter-Finals, setting up this Semi-Final matchup with Texas.

The Buckeyes are now 5-2 versus the spread over their L7 games this season.

They are also 12-2 overall in their L14 games played as the betting favorite.

Texas lost again against the spread last week in an overtime game against Arizona State.

That makes the Longhorns just 3-6 versus the spread over their L9 games this year.

Texas is also just 1-6 over their L7 games played as the betting underdog.

We think that Ohio State will steamroll right through Texas in this one as well.

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We like the Georgia Bulldogs to defeat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Wednesday at 8:45pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

If the season finished after the conference championships, Georgia would've most likely been one of the top two teams considering it beat Texas twice.

The Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 over their L7 games played against teams that are "independent."

They are also 8-1 over their L9 games this season.

Notre Dame has been good this season, but really have trouble in January games. Over its L11 games played in this month, ND is 1-10.

Even without their QB and with the game being postponed until today, we see the Bulldogs out muscling the Irish in this night game.

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We like the Penn State Nittany Lions @ Boise State Broncos game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Penn State blew the roof off in their opening playoff game versus SMU, scoring 38 points.

The Nittany Lions are much more dangerous this season in the passing game, not just running, which is why they score a lot more points. That's also the reason for being double digit favorites today,

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games now.

Boise State loves to score. The Broncos average 39.1 points a game, which is top three in the country.

Ashton Jeanty believes he got robbed of the Heisman. Needing 131 more yards to break Barry Sanders' record for most rushing yards ever in a season, he should get that today and some.

The Broncos won't make this game easy for PSU. We think a high scoring game is on the cards.

This game will go OVER.

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We like the Army Black Knights to defeat the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Saturday at 9:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Army is not happy about losing the Navy/Army game back two weekends ago. The Black Knights will respond this weekend.

They still went 11-2 this season and averaged 10+ points more than LA Tech did this season.

The Black Knights have played against the Bulldogs twice before. They won and covered versus the spread in both games, fairly easily.

Louisiana Tech went 5-7 this season and are lucky to even be here after Marshall withdrew.

The Bulldogs are 2-5 over their L7 games played against opponents from the AAC.

Army will prove to be too much to handle for them here tonight.

We're laying the points, confidently.

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We like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to defeat the Indiana Hoosiers on Friday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Since losing to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has looked like one of the best teams in the country.

The Irish have now won 10 straight games and have covered the spread in eight straight.

ND is also 5-0-1 versus the spread over their L6 games played against Big Ten teams.

We're very impressed with what they've done. But, Indiana had a very easy schedule this season.

In the Hoosiers only big game, they lost 38-15 to Ohio State.

Lay the points with the home team in this first playoff game of four in the first round.

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We like the Georgia Bulldogs to defeat the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Georgia survived an 8-OT thriller against their rivals in Georgia Tech in the last game of the regular season. That scare will have them ready to go for today's big game.

Even though the Bulldogs are already in, they have to take care of business today. They lost last years championship game by three points and that ultimately knocked them out of the 4-team playoff.

Georgia beat Texas 30-15 earlier this season in what was the Longhorns only loss of the season.

The Longhorns have done a great job adjusting to the new conference. Props to them with it being in the SEC.

This season is long from over though. This is just the beginning of the tough part.

Texas is just 2-4 versus the spread over their L6 games this season.

Georgia has beaten them already and will beat them again. We'll take the points.

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We like the Arizona State Sun Devils to defeat the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Sun Devils have shocked everybody this year. Not expected to do well at all, they've turned into one of the top teams in America.

Arizona State have now won five games in a row (straight up and versus the spread) including a 49-7 win last weekend against Arizona.

They are also 7-1 against the spread over their eight Big-12 games this season.

Iowa State are just 2-4 vs the spread over their L6 games this season.

The Cyclones barely won a nail-biter by one score last weekend to get here.

We think ASU has the hotter hand and will win this game and make their way into the playoff.

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We like the Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights to finish OVER the total on Friday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tulane really played well offensively in conference play scoring an average of 41.25 points per game over the eight games.

The Green Wave have seen four of their L6 games played in the month of December finish OVER the total.

The OVER is also 2-0 over their L2 meetings between these two teams.

Army will be able to run the ball. Even against a top team like Notre Dame, they were able to run for 200+ yards.

The Black Knights are averaging 32.7 points per game this season. We think they would only need around 20 for this game to go OVER.

The total is quite low because of these two teams loving to run the ball. We think this game goes OVER even with all of the running that we're expecting to see.

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We like the Jacksonville State Gamecocks to defeated the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Friday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

JVST may have lost in the last game of the season. But, that was in Western Kentucky in a game that didn't really matter for them. This game is much more important.

The Gamecocks are now 12-1 over their L13 games played in-conference (against CUSA opponents.)

They are also 5-0 over their L5 games played at home. Yes this Championship Game is played @Jacksonville State.

Western Kentucky are just 1-4 versus the spread over their L5 games this season.

The Hilltoppers had a bit of trouble to finish the season losing against LA Tech and getting blown out by Liberty before the game between these two.

The Gamecocks were much better down the stretch and will play like it this Friday.

Being at home in this Championship Game will make a difference. Lay the points with JVST.

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We like the Texas Longhorns to defeat the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas did not come this far just to not make the SEC Championship game. They will be eager to send a message today!

The Longhorns are 10-1 this season and have won 10 games in a row playing away from home.

They are also 5-1 over their L6 games playing against Texas A&M.

The Aggies lost last week to Auburn and have now lost in two of their L3 games.

Texas A&M are 0-5 versus the spread in their L5 games played in the month of November.

Kyle Field is a tough place to play. But Texas is a tough football team to play against. The Longhorns will win this game by no less than a TD. Lay the points.

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We like the UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Miners have seen the total finish UNDER in five of their L6 games played against the Aggies.

Both teams are averaging less than 20 points a game this season.

In six road games this season, UTEP have scored just 61 points. That's 10.17 per game.

NMST allowed just seven points against UTEP last season.

The last time they met together at the Aggies field, they finished with just 33 total points in a game where the total was 59.5

We think this one stays below the total as well!

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We like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to cover the spread against the Georgia Bulldogs on Friday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Georgia Tech have nothing to lose in this game. They've clinched a bowl game and will give it all they've got to beat their in-state rivals.

The Yellow Jackets have won back-to-back games and are actually very tough opponents for any team to figure out.

They are 6-2 versus the spread in their L8 games played in the month of November.

Georgia has the championship game up next week and could rest some guys here. There's no need to risk any guys that are lingering with injuries at the moment.

The Bulldogs have been bad this season against the spread. In their L9 games as a favorite, they are 1-8 vs the spread.

Now, we don't think GT wins outright. But, this game could be a lot closer than people think.

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We like the Toledo Rockets to defeat the Akron Zips on Tuesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

It was not a great game for Toledo last week against Ohio. But, they most definitely should rebound today against a 3-8 Akron program.

The Rockets are 13-4 over their L17 conference games (within the MAC.)

Toledo are also 14-6 in their L20 games overall since last season.

Akron are 4-16 over their L20 games since last year.

The Zips are also just 5-13 over their L18 games played at home.

Averaging more than seven more points per game, and allowing 12 less points per game than the Zips, Toledo clearly is the better team.

We think that they make a statement and win big in the final regular season game.

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We like the USC Trojans to defeat the UCLA Bruins on Saturday at 10:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

UCLA have been really bad at home this season (1-3.) This game is the closest road game to home all year that USC will have plyaed.

The Bruins are 3-7 against the spread in their L10 games played in the month of November.

USC have been perfect in this week over the past six years winning all six games.

When these teams have met, USC have gotten the better of them winning six of the L9 games.

They do have some payback from 2023 though to play for today. USC will want revenge.

We think the slight favorite wins this game easily.

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We like the Army Black Knights @ Notre Dame Fightining Irish game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Army has yet to lose this season, averaging more than 35 points a game. But they have also yet to face a team like Notre Dame.

Off the bye week, the Black Knights should be a lot more competitive that Navy was against the Irish.

Notre Dame has loved scoring points this season. They average 38 points a game.

The Fighting Irish have seen the total go OVER in 11 of their L16 games overall.

Notre Dame have also seen nine of their L10 games played in the month of November finish OVER the total.

Last season, and even though it stayed UNDER, the Irish put up 44 points themselves in this matchup.

We believe that this year's will be a lot closer, leading to more points and an OVER on Saturday night.

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We like the Texas State Bobcats to defeat the Georgia State Panthers on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas State have won back-to-back games. They won 58-3 last weekend against Southern Miss.

The Bobcats are now 5-2 versus the spread in their L7 conference games within the SBC.

TXST are also 9-3 in their L12 games played on their home field.

The Panthers have been bad this year (2-8.) They are 0-10 over their L10 conference games.

GAST have also lost eight straight games played away from home.

With Georgia State having failed to cover the spread in seven straight as well, we'll go with TXST in another blowout.

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We like the Kentucky Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns to stay UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Kentucky have held teams to some very low scores this season including Georgia (13), @Ole Miss (20) @Tennessee (28) etc..

The Wildcats have seen the total finish UNDER in seven of their L12 games since last season.

Texas have had one of the best defenses in the entire country this season allowing under 12 points a game.

The game has stayed UNDER the total in four of their L5 games played as a favorite.

The Longhorns have also seen the total stay UNDER in five of their L6 games overall.

We think this one will be low scoring as both teams will stop long plays from happening. The clock will be running all game long today.

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We like the Arkansas State Red Wolves to defeat the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks on Saturday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arkansas State are off a win and have won in three of the L4 weeks.

Louisiana Monroe have lost four straight games coming into this week. Road games haven't treated them too well this season.

The Red Wolves are a perfect 7-0 versus the spread in their L7 games played vs. ULM at home.

Ark State has also won six straight home games themselves.

The Warhawks are haven't won against ARKST in 15 years. The last time was in 2009. The Red Wolves are 14-0 straight up and against the spread in the L14 meetings.

We think that trend continues this weekend. Lay the small points.

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We like the Akron Zips @ Kent State Golden Flashes game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With two "bad" teams going head-to-head, we tend to lean on the OVER more than not.

Akron has seen the total finish OVER the total in seven of their ten games played this season.

7 of the L9 Akron games played in the month of November have gone OVER the total as well.

The Golden Flashes have seen the total go OVER in each of their L5 games played in week 13, the past five seasons.

We know that Kent State doesn't score much. But, this is the best chance that they are going to get to do so. At home against a 2-8 team. What more could you ask for.

We believe that Akron will reach at least 30 points, and for Kent State to get around 20. That puts us OVER the total.

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We like the Arizona State Sun Devils @ Kansas State Wildcats game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Both ASU as well as KSU average more than 31 points per game.

They also both have trouble stopping their opponents at times allowing more than 21 points a game as well as scoring lots themselves.

Kansas State has seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games.

Arizona State have seen back to back games finish OVER the total.

They've only ever played versus each other once, in a game that finished with 61 total points.

This should be an entertaining battle between two 7-2 Big-12 opponents. We think the total is too low though and will select the OVER.

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We like the West Virginia Mountaineers to defeat the Baylor Bears on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

WVU are coming off back to back wins. They should be highly motivated to grab their sixth and bowl clinching win.

The Mountaineers have won six straight home games against the Baylor Bears.

Overall, West Virginia have won six of the L8 meetings.

Baylor are also coming off three wins in a row. But, they are just 1-3 on the road this season.

The Bears have also allowed an average of 32.3 points per game over the L3 games, even while winning.

WVU's defense should hold up for the most part. We're going with the slight home dog.

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We like the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Utah State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

In all 10 games this season, Hawaii has yet to have a game go OVER the 60.0 mark. In fact, the highest combined score they've seen has only been 56 which was last week against UNLV (who average nearly 40 points a game themselves.)

Since last year, the Rainbow Warriors have seen the total go UNDER in 11 of their L15 games overall.

Utah State are a team that allows a lot of points. But, they should be a lot better this week than last. They will be up against a travelling Hawaii side.

The Aggies average 27.8 points per game. Hawaii averages just 22.0 points per game.

Hawaii's defense is a lot better than people expect from a 4-6 team. They don't allow many yards.

This game's total is so high because of USU's bad defense and solid offense. As they are the underdog, we don't see that coming into play.

A lower scoring game than the Aggies are used to should be on the cards today.

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We like the Illinois Fighting Illini to defeat the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday at 2:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Illinois isn't getting respected too much anymore. They've lost back to back games, but still are 6-3 this season.

The Spartans are 4-5 themselves, just 1-3 away from home.

Michigan State have been bad in conference play. They are just 1-5 over their L6 games.

The Fighting Illini are 4-2 versus the spread over their L6 games against the East Division in the Big-Ten.

The Spartans have lost 13 of their L16 road games over the past couple of seasons.

We feel that the Illini are better than this line makes them look. They'll win this game by at least a TD.

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We like the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks @ Auburn Tigers game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 12:45pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With Auburn as a big favorite in this game, we don't think that UL Monroe will score many points. Auburn's defense is great even with them being just 3-6.

The Warhawks scored just three points against Texas earlier this season (their latest game versus the SEC.)

Auburn has seen the total stay UNDER in five of their L6 games overall.

The last time ULM and Auburn played each other, the game finish UNDER the total by double digits!

Both teams don't score very many points either.

This game will stay UNDER the total with Auburn dictating the pace.

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We like the Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats to finish OVER the total on Wednesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Eastern Michigan have been playing high scoring games this season. They have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5.

EMU have also seen the total finish OVER in seven of their L9 games played against MAC opponents.

Ohio have also seen some high scoring games lately. They've seen four of their L6 go OVER the total.

Even with their 6-3 record this season, the Bobcats tend to play close games. That could lead to lots of scoring today.

We don't see Ohio shutting out another opponent like last week. This will be a much close game.

This Over/Under line is too low for these two teams.

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We like the Penn State Nittany Lions to defeat the Washington Huskies on Saturday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Last week was an outlier game for the Nittany Lions. Although they lost, they gave the Buckeyes a real fight. Penn State will get back to their winning ways on Saturday in their signature "white-out game."

Penn State have won their L5 "white-out games." Over the last two, they've outscored their opponents 52-7. Both games were against ranked teams.

Washington beat USC last week but are still just 5-4 this season. That includes an 0-3 record away from home.

The Nittany Lions are 13-6 versus the spread in their L19 games played as the favorite.

Penn State also won the only ever time these teams met, both SU and ATS.

This is a good spot for PSU to bounce back. They'll take advantage of the ground game on Saturday night.

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We like the Alabama Crimson Tide to defeat the Louisiana State Tigers on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

In our opinion so far, we believe that the Tide have had the much stronger schedule. Therefore, they've played more competition and will be ready for this game.

Although it's been more even in recent years, Alabama has dominated LSU in since 2012. Since then, they are 11-2 against the Tigers.

The loss against Vandy doesn't look good on their schedule. But, the Tide looked terrific in their last game when they beat Missouri 34-0.

LSU is just 3-5 ATS over their L8 games played this season.

The Tigers are also just 2-5 versus the spread over their L7 games played as the favorite.

Bama has been at the top of the SEC for years now and we don't see them falling off and not making the playoff for the second time in three years.

This is a must-win for each team. We'll go with the team that made the playoff last year who's playing better football right now. Lay the small number or play on the ML. Either is an option.

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We like the Clemson Tigers @ Virginia Tech Hokies game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Tigers lost their last game. But, they still have one of the best offenses in the country this year averaging 39.4 points per game which is top 10 in the FBS. Cade Klubnik has terrific stats. He will bounce back today.

Virginia Tech go seen the total go OVER in 10 of their L13 games played since last year.

VT have also seen the the total go OVER in five of their L6 played against teams in the Atlantic Division of the ACC.

Clemson is allowing 24.3 points per game against FBS competition this season which is definitely worse than in previous years.

If this was a night game, I'd see a lower scoring game. But, the Hokies crowd won't be as energetic here for an afternoon game.

The line is too low and we're going with the OVER.

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We like the Pittsburgh Panthers @ SMU Mustangs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As both Quarterbacks are questionable for this game, we're expecting both to play. This is the biggest game of the year for both programs and they are not going to want to miss it.

Both teams have top offenses in the countries both averaging north of 39 points per game which puts them both in the top 15 on the season.

SMU was shut down a bit last week but won't stumble again. They are back at home this weekend where they average 45.5 points per game.

The Mustangs have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five games this season.

The OVER is 5-3 in the Panthers' last eight games played as a road underdog.

This game has the makings of an all-time ACC classic between two top offenses. We're expecting a shootout.

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We like the South Alabama Jaguars to defeat the Georgia Southern Eagles on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

USA is off back-to-back wins, covering against the spread in both . They have outscored teams 196-88 in four home games this season.

The Jaguars may be 4-4, but have proven that they can play with anybody in this conference with their great rushing attack.

Georgia Southern are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played away from home.

This is a huge game for the Jags to stay in the conference title race. They can't afford any hiccups, and most definitely not at home.

The Eagles are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games against SBC West Division opponents.

Two years ago when they matched up, the Jags took home the win (38-31) on the road.

South Alabama is now at home and we're making them our #1 SBC Game Of The Year this weekend.

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We like the Navy Midshipmen to defeat the Rice Owls in the 1ST HALF on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As good as Rice held up against Army, they clearly weren't ready for the Black Knights in the first half earlier this season. They were outscored 28-0 in the first half in that game.

Rice fired their coach after last week's loss, and we don't see that helping much for this week.

Navy is going to want to start strong after last weekends unacceptable performance.

The Midshipmen are 6-1 and have looked good in every game except for last week. Rice have lost back to back games.

Rice will not be able to control the running game on Saturday. Navy will have their way from the opening kick-off in this game.

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We like the Florida Gators @ Georgia Bulldogs game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With this game played at a Neutral site, we don't see the Bulldogs running away with it. The Gators looked really good last week against Kentucky.

In rivalry games, we lean more towards the UNDER. Defenses will be prepared for an all out war.

UGA have seen the total stay UNDER in eight of their last eleven games overall.

The UNDER was also 3-1 last year in November when Georgia was the favorite.

Florida is better than people give them credit for. They've had a tough opening schedule and we think they'll be competitive in every game over the rest of the year.

This game will stay UNDER the total.

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We like the Nebraska Cornhuskers to defeat the UCLA Bruins on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Cornhuskers are 5-3 this season. UCLA are just 2-5.

It's been hard for the Bruins in their new conference (Big-10,) especially on the road. They beat Rutgers a couple of weeks ago, but this is still a long ways from their home.

With their 5-3 SU record, the Cornhuskers are 5-2-1 ATS on the season (3-1-1 ATS at home.)

Nebraska have better offensive and defensive stats this season. They are led by freshman QB Dylan Raiola who will get them back on track this weekend.

UCLA's QB Ethan Garbers has thrown more Interceptions (nine) compared to touchdown passes (eight) this year.

We think this is a great bounce back spot for NEB. At home, they win by double digits.

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We like the Akron Zips to defeat the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Akron is off a much needed victory last weekend to establish some momentum heading into this week.

Buffalo have looked bad, two weeks in a row, and this game is on the road where they are 1-3 on the season.

The Bulls have been sorry against the spread away from home since last season with their 1-6 ATS record.

Buffalo have lost nine straight games played in November over the past few years.

On the flip side, Akron have a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six games played in the month of November.

When these teams have played in history, the home team is 10-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS. We've got the Zips winning for a second straight game,

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We like the Florida Atlantic Owls to defeat the South Florida Bulls on Friday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

South Florida are only 3-17 in their last 20 games on the played away from home.

The Bulls are also 3-16 SU in their last 19 games played within the conference (AAC.)

FAU absolutely crushed it in last year's game winning 56-14. They'll be ready to win again this weekend.

The Owls are also much better on the defensive side. They've got a stout passing defense.

They haven't played as a home dog much recently. In fact, just once this season. But, FAU covered the spread in that game as an underdog at home.

We'll take the small points at home this Friday.

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We like the SMU Mustangs to defeat the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

A 40-10 wins over Stanford last week helped improve SMU to 6-1 on the season. They've now won four straight games and their only loss was against an undefeated BYU team.

Duke are 6-1 too. But, they've looked sloppy over the past three weeks, beating UNC by just one after being down 20-0, losing to Georgia Tech by double digits and only knocking off an FSU team by a score of 23-16.

SMU have a 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS record in their last nine games played as a road favorite.

The Duke Blue Devils are just 1-5 SU/ATS as a home underdog between +10 and +25.

SMU ranks among the countries best offenses while Duke's is very mediocre.

This is the toughest team that Duke will have faced all season. With their recent struggles, we're going with the Mustangs minus the points.

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We like the Colorado State Rams to defeat the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday at 5:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

CSU have now won back to back games against a very solid 5-2 SJST team and on the road against Air Force. They will be back at home this weekend where they have a 3-1 record.

New Mexico have played well on offense over these past few weeks and have gotten wins. But, over those three games/wins, they've allowed 122 total points which is 40.66 a game.

The Rams have allowed an average of just 21.5 points per game at home this season.

Colorado State also loves to play against New Mexico. In fact, they've won 12 straight meetings against them while covering versus the spread in ten of them.

New Mexico are just 4-16 SU in their last 20 games vs conference opponents (MWC.)

We believe that Colorado State will slow down the offense of UNM and outscore them quite easily today. Lay the small number.

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We like the Connecticut Huskies to defeat the Rice Owls on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Rice held their own last week against Tulane for the most part. But, they still ended up losing by double digits after getting shutout 14-0 in the fourth.

UCONN has really reached another level after being one of the worst teams in the nation really from 2016 until this year (2022 was an outlier as they won six games and got into a bowl.) They are 4-3 this season and seek their eighth bowl game in team history.

The Huskies have a great rushing attack, which is one thing that the Owls don't do so well against.

Rice's pass defense is their strength, but UCONN will find other ways to gain yards and score points as they've done throughout the year.

The Huskies are 6-3 SU/ATS over their last nine games since last year. They also won and covered the spread in the only meeting between these teams last season.

UCONN averages more than 10 more points a game than Rice does.

We're backing the better offensive team, at home, to win big and expose this weak Rice team. It's our #1 CFB Game Of The Year on the UCONN Huskies.

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We like the Texas Tech Red Raiders @ TCU Horned Frogs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas Tech got exposed last week as they allowed 59 points to a 3-4 Baylor team. Note that the Red Raiders were at home in that game.

TCU didn't score much last week. But, they didn't have to. They are still averaging more than 32 points per game this season with Texas Tech averaging more than 38 a game.

Both the defenses have tough times against good offenses. They both rank in the bottom 40 of the FBS in points allowed a game.

They also both have seen more OVER's than UNDER's this season so far.

TCU has played two similar matchups earlier on this year against two ACC opponents in SMU and UCF. Both games saw a bunch of points put up on the scoreboard.

The total is high, but we think it should be higher. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers with this being such a big conference game and the final score to go OVER the total.

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We like the Indiana Hoosiers to defeat the Washington Huskies on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Indiana won't their QB for this week, causing the line to drop. It's dropped too far. The Hoosiers are still very good without Rourke.

Washington is nothing like their team from last season. The Huskies lost badly last week @Iowa.

Indiana is still perfect this season (7-0 record SU/ATS) and will be fired up to host College Gameday this week.

Their Head Coach Curt Cignetti is 19-4 ATS in conference play in his career. He's a pure winner.

This Huskies are 2-4 ATS in their last six games this season.

Keep riding the Indiana train. They will be ready for this matchup on Saturday at Noon Eastern.

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We like the Ohio Bobcats to defeat the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Last season, the Bulls won just three games overall (3-9 record.) They are improved. But, they won't be winning too many more games, particularly on the road.

Ohio have won the last six games at home between these two schools.

Buffalo was at home last week and gave up 48 points to Western Michigan. Now, they are on the road again for this one.

In their last 15 home games, the Bobcats have won 14 of them.

The Bulls have the 18th worst offense in the FBS this season (per total yards each game.)

With history showing that the home team dominates when these two teams play each other, we're backing the Bobcats to win this game by double digits in an early Saturday game.

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We like the Georgia Southern Eagles @ Old Dominion Monarchs game to finish UNDER the total on Thursday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

GASO and ODU have both seen more UNDER's than OVER's so far this season.

In their two meetings against each other (all-time,) both of them have finished UNDER the total.

Old Dominion is only averaging 23.1 points per game this season. As the slight favorite, they are expected to win this game.

Both teams have seen less than 50 points in each of their last two games played.

The Monarchs have seen the total has go UNDER in 8 of their last 11 games played vs. opponents in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference.

In a winnable game for both sides, this should be a defensive battle on Thursday night.

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We like the Jacksonville State Gamecocks to defeat the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders on Wednesday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Jacksonville State are much better than 3-3. Their losses came earlier in the season and have now won three straight games.

The Gamecocks have covered the spread seven games in a row in conference play.

MTSU have lost nine straight games played on the road and have looked very bad early on this season.

The first time and only time these teams met was last season when the Gamecocks won by 15 as a road underdog. Now, they are at home and should win by even more.

JVST has blown out their last three opponents. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders right now.

Not to mention that the Blue Raiders are only averaging 16.4 points per game. That ranks them 5th last in the FBS this year.

Jacksonville State won't have trouble scoring again today. Lay the points on the home team.

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We like the Oregon State Beavers to defeat the UNLV Rebels on Saturday at 10:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Since the Oregon State Beavers are still a part of the "Pac-12," we can still say that they are from that conference. UNLV has lost ten straight games vs. Pac-12 opponents.

After the Rebels started the season 3-0, they had their top QB opt-out for the remainder of the season due to NIL issues. That will hurt them as the season gets older when they play solid football teams.

Oregon State owns a is 17-2 ATS at home (5-0 ATS while an underdog) since 2021.

The Beavers have won the only two meetings between these porgrams. Although they didn't cover last time, it was on the road. In the first meeting they were at home and covered by double digits!

Averaging 14 less points per game than the Rebels, the Beavers actually go toe-to-toe with UNLV for yards per game. You could argue that ORST have better stats on both sides of the ball disregarding those points scored offensively.

This game will be won in the trenches and we think the Beaver home crowd will be loud and ready to go which gets them at least a cover on Saturday night.

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We like the Iowa Hawkeyes to defeat the Michigan State Wolverines on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Michigan State are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at home since last season.

Iowa have won nine of their last twelve conference games.

Not only just that, but the Hawkeyes are also on a 18-5 ATS run as a favorite on the road in the Big 10.

The Hawkeyes have won back to back games against Michigan State.

MSU is also just 3-3 this season with Iowa sitting at 4-2. Iowa's only losses are against an undefeated ISU team (20-19) and Ohio State who are one of the best teams in the nation as well.

Iowa is the better side. They win by at least a touchdown here.

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We like the Central Florida Knights @ Iowa State Cyclones game to finish UNDER the total at 7:30pm ET on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

After beginning the season with three straight wins, the Knights have gone the other way having lost now three in a row. They've scored just 47 total points over those past three games (15.66 per game.)

Iowa State's defense ranks among the nations best allowing just 285.3 yards per game so far this season which is 15th best in the FBS. The Cyclones also rank tied for fifth in the FBS in points allowed per game (11.0.)

UCF have seen four of their last five games played on the road stay UNDER the total. ISU have seen 10 of their last 13 games played at home stay UNDER the total.

These teams have never played against each other and might take a while to get used to the style's of one another.

The Knights will try and pound the rock in this game. That will cause the clock to be constantly running.

All signs point towards a low scoring conference matchup.

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We like the Michigan Wolverines to defeat the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Michigan have had it's ups and downs this season. They are clearly not the team they were last season. They are still a top team in the country though.

Illinois has been impressive this year. But, they allowed 49 points last week to a 1-5 Purdue team while playing at home. That's concerning.

Michigan still are 18-2 over their last 20 games overall and 11-1 over their last 12 games played on the road.

Illinois are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games played at home on a Saturday.

Michigan have also won six of the past seven meetings between the two sides, when playing at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.

The Fighting Illini are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played at home as an underdog.

Off the bye week, look for the Wolverines to be well prepared this week after a sad double-digit loss vs. Washington. We will back Michigan on Saturday.

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We like the Missouri Tigers to defeat the Auburn Tigers on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Week 6 was not it for Missouri. They lost 41-10 to Texas A&M and couldn't get out of there faster. But, they rebounded in a huge way against UMASS last week. That should give them some momentum back for this weeks game against another SEC foe.

Auburn is having a down year this year. With just a 2-4 record, they have had trouble keeping the ball this season. Entering the week, they've thrown the 7th most INT's in the FBS this season with nine.

Auburn also got exposed last week against Georgia, allowing the Bulldogs to pretty much score at will.

MISSOU are still 5-1 even with one very bad performance. They are back at home this week after back to back road games. They've outscored teams 146-48 in four home games so far this year.

Missouri have also won seven straight games at home while Auburn are 3-9 in their last 12 games played away from home.

Even with Bama due up next week, we're riding with Missouri to win their second game in a row this Saturday.

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We like the Marshall Thundering Herd @ Georgia Southern Eagles game to finish OVER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As the favorites in this game, we expect Marshall to win. In their wins this season, they are averaging 41.33 points per game.

GASO are averaging 31.6 points per game themselves and have put up 38+ in three out of five games this season.

In their last five home games, the Eagles have seen the total go OVER in four of them.

Georgia Southern have also seen the total go OVER in four of their last five divisional games inside of the Sun Belt (East.)

Their latest meeting last season finished with 71 total points (38-33.)

Both teams give up a bunch of points as well as scoring. They rank #110 and #111 in points allowed per game out of 133 FBS teams.

After putting up lots of points in wins in their last games, they'll want to keep it up this week.

All signs points towards an OVER. Get the best line you can.

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We like the North Texas Mean Green to defeat the Florida Atlantic Owls on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

North Texas has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 518.6 total yards per game, 348.6 passing yards per game and 40.8 points per game.

FAU average more than 160 yards less per game than the Mean Green. While the Owls have been good against the pass, they've yet to play a pass attack nearly as strong as this.

Over their last nine games, since last season, Florida Atlantic are just 2-6-1 against the spread. North Texas are 5-2 against the spread over their last seven games.

UNT have dominated in the month of October in the past. They own a perfect 10-0 ATS record over their last 10 games played in October.

Since both teams had their bye weekend in week 6, neither team gets a rest advantage.

North Texas' offense will be too much for FAU to handle and this could get ugly on Saturday. Lay the points.

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We like the Penn State Nittany Lions @ USC Trojans game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Penn State is very well known as a ground and pound team that loves to play strong defense. They've got two of the best RB's in the nation and should have the clock ticking whenever they've got the ball.

USC's defense still isn't necessarily great quite yet. But, they are much stronger than last season on that side of the ball. Lincoln Riley also owns a 43-4 record at home over his coaching career so I don't see him giving up all that many points here.

Penn State's last five conference games have all gone UNDER the total.

In their one road game so far this year, the Nittany Lions gave up just 12 points against WVU.

The Trojans have given up just 21 points in two road games this season.

Getting a good line is big here. But, expect a lower scoring game in a massive matchup for both teams in week 7.

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We like the Wyoming Cowboys to defeat the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Wyoming has covered ATS in back to back home games against the Aztecs

San Diego State are just 1-6 SU in their last seven games played on the road.

In their last five games vs. conference opponents (MWC,) the Cowboys have covered the spread in four of them.

Even though Wyoming come into this game with a poor 1-4 record, they looked strong a couple of weeks and should be able to carry momentum into this week.

The Aztecs had to travel to Hawaii last weekend and now they travel to Wyoming. That's a lot for a college program.

With Wyoming fresh off the bye week, we expect them to keep rolling on Saturday.

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We like the North Carolina Tar Heels to defeat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

North Carolina is a lot better than they're record shows. They won their first three games this year and look to pick up a big win today.

The Yellow Jackets have lost back to back to back road games (not incl. week 0 vs. FSU in Ireland,) failing to cover the spread in all of them.

Even though they've had some success recently, Georgia Tech have failed to cover in two of the last three games played vs. UNC on the road as the favorite.

Week 7 has not been very kind to the Jackets. They own a 1-8 record over their last nine games played in the seventh week of the year.

UNC are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played as a home underdog.

This is a good spot for the Tar Heels to improve their home record. They average more yards per game than Georgia Tech and we believe they pull off the upset this weekend.

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We like the Arizona Wildcats to defeat the Texas Tech Red Raiders for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

Texas Tech comes into this game having lost their lone road game this season by a score of 37-16 against Washington State.

After last week's gigantic win against Utah (23-10 on the road,) this Arizona team is filled with confidence.

Texas Tech has allowed 309.4 passing yards per game this season which happens to be third worst in FBS. Arizona averages 265.0 passing yards per game which ranks T-40 with Alabama.

Arizona has won the only matchup between these teams of all time. The score was 28-14 in 2019.

With a game at BYU next weekend, the Wildcats will need to make sure they win this game, as they more than likely will be an underdog in that game.

We're backing the home favorite on Saturday night. The play is on Arizona.

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We like the Duke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to stay UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Blue Devils enter this game as nearly a double digit underdog despite being 5-0. That should tell you something about the Yellow Jackets defense.

Both Duke and Georgia Tech have seen more UNDER's than OVER's this season so far.

Georgia Tech ranks 18th in FBS allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game. Duke ranks 18th in FBS in passing defense allowing just 155.8 yards through the air a game.

Both of the past two meetings between Duke/GT have stayed UNDER the total.

The UNDER is also 7-2 in their last nine matchups against each other when Georgia Tech is the home favorite.

We are expecting a game featuring a lot of punts in this game on Saturday. Look for these teams to stay UNDER the total.

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We like the Ohio State Buckeyes to defeat the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The Buckeyes are title contenders whilst the Hawkeyes are not.

Iowa relies on their rush attack to gain yards. Ohio State's got one of the best rushing defenses in the entire country, allowing just 61.8 yards on the ground per game.)

Ohio State have never lost as a home favorite against Iowa. They are 8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS in those games.

The Hawkeyes are only 2-4 ATS over their last six games dating back to last season.

In their last 17 games played in the month of October, the Buckeyes are 13-3-1 ATS.

Jeremiah Smith is the best receiving prospect out of high-school in the Top247 era (since 2000.) Him and Emeka Egbuka will dominate against a much weaker Iowa pass defense.

All in all, this will be a blowout. Ohio State rolls on Saturday.

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We like the Army Black Nights to defeat the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Army enters week 6 with a 4-0 record on the season. Tulsa is just 2-3.

Tulsa is allowing tons of yards while Army leads the entire nation in rushing yards per game.

The Black Knigths own a perfect 5-0 ATS record over their last five games played against conference opponents (AAC.) They've also covered the spread in six straight games overall.

The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS over their last five home games.

Tulsa lost their lone home game so far by 35 points against Oklahoma State. Army might not be as strong as OKST. But, they are explosive and will pose a different type of challenge.

Army's run offense will prove to be too much to handle for Tulsa this Saturday. Lay the points.

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We like the Oregon Ducks to defeat the Michigan State Spartans on Friday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Oregon is looking better and better each week. They're still perfect and will stay perfect after tonights game.

Michigan State is coming into this game off back to back losses and got absolutely torched by Ohio State last week.

The Ducks average 36.0 PPG while the Spartans average just 21.8 PPG. This is a tough game for MSU on the road at night.

With just 47 yards on the ground last week, Michigan State's passing attack wasn't all that great either. They had just 199 yards through the air.

In their last five matches against each other, the Ducks have covered the spread in every single one.

Oregon will prove to be just too good for MSU on Friday with the scoring starting early. Roll with the Ducks this evening.

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We like the Texas State Bobcats to defeat the Troy Trojans on Thursday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

We've already won against the Bobcats this season and have won three straight bets involving them over the past two seasons.

Texas State was in the conversation for a non-power 5 playoff spot before their loss to ASU a couple of weeks ago. Meaning they are still very good.

Troy isn't looking very good at all this season and just lost to a team in ULM who completed just six passes.

Both the Trojans offense/defense are liabilities, ranking near the bottom in both points and points allowed per game.

Last weeks loss wasn't expected, but the Bobcats should have a short memory with how well they played to begin the season.

TXST also plays with revenge after losing last year's matchup by 18 points. Both teams are much different and a different story should be played out here.

In the end, this one comes down to Texas State wanting it more. Troy's season is practically over already and this is a big game for the Bobcats to get back to the top of the standings. TXST minus the points is the play.

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We like Oregon vs Ucla to go Over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The total is low. The last time these teams faced each other, the o/u line was 70.5.

The Ducks have the capability of going over this low total all by themselves. Oregon has scored progressively more every week and managed 49 points (and 546 yards) last game.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel leads the country with an 84% completion percentage. He's the only FBS QB above the 80% mark. The dual threat Gabriel can also beat teams with his legs.

UCLA has given up 76 points the last 2 games alone. UCLA QB Ethan Garbers threw for a career-high 281 yards with two touchdowns in his last game.

The last 4 meetings had scores of 45-30, 34-31, 38-35 and 42-21. All went over. 8 of the last 9 meetings have finished with at least 56. The over is the play.

We like UTSA plus the points against East Carolina for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The Roadrunners have had a difficult early schedule. They played road games at Texas State and Texas. They won't be intimidated by this setting and they will be determined to improve on their 0-2 road record.

The Roadrunners brought back 14 starters from a team which went 9-4 in 2023. The road games in the state of Texas didnt go well but this is still one of the stronger teams in the AAC.

The Pirates are improved from last year but they had a long way to go as they were 2-10. They're now 4-12 the past 2 years.

Last year, UTSA beat this team 41-27. The Roadrunners were -18. Now they are an underdog! That's too big a swing considering that most UTSA players are back.

East Carolina just suffered a devastating loss, their 2nd straight. Two weeks ago, the Pirates lost by 2 points to App State. Last week, they waited out a weather delay for hours many only to blow a big lead in a loss at Liberty. Those losses will hurt them this week.

We're going to take the points but frankly we don't expect to need them. The play is UTSA!

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We like the Baylor Bears to defeat the BYU Cougars for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

We played against Baylor last week. That was a bit of a fortunate win though, the Bears easily could have won. They held Colorado to 91 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts.

The Bears, who brought back 19 starters, responded to their only other loss with a big win. They still remember a 2-OT loss at BYU in 2022.

The Bears are 2-0 at home. Off a 31-3 win over Air Force last home game, they have outscored teams by a 76-6 margin here.

BYU was 1-4 ATS in Big 12 road games last year.

The Bears bounce back and hand BYU its first loss. The play is Baylor

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We like Rutgers to defeat Washington for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

This isn't anywhere close to the Washington team from last season. The Huskies lost a lot and are in rebuilding mode.

The Knights have their best team in years. They are experienced on both sides of the ball. 

The line is low. Each of the Knights' last 11 victories has come by at least 3 points. 

A well-coached team, Rutgers wins the games it is supposed to. The Knights are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS their last 12 as favorites. 

This is a massive game for the Knights, a nationally televised weekday game against a team which played for the national title last year. Playing at SHI Stadium will provide a big edge. 

With a chance to go 4-0 on the line, Rutgers will make this game. The Knights experience and home-field advantage will make the difference.

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We like the Colorado Buffaloes to defeat the Baylor Bears for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The line is low enough that we don't have to worry about covering a large spread. In what could be a close game, that's important. The Buffaloes have already shown that they can win the close ones.

2. Even if you don't like Coach Sanders, he has turned this team around. They were drastically improved last year and this year's team is stronger yet again.

3. Baylor is 0-1 on the road. Colorado is 1-0 at home. This is the Buffaloes' homecoming game, as it coincides with Colorado's return to the Big 12.

4. Looking at the schedule, this is a game that the Buffaloes need to take advantage if they plan to reach the six-win mark to get to a bowl.

5. Shedeur Sanders ranks among the top quarterbacks in the country, ranking fifth with 999 passing yards. He has thrown nine touchdown passes against only two interceptions. He gives the Buffaloes an edge at the all-important QB position, ahead of Baylor's Dequan Finn or Sawyer Robertson.

Coach Sanders will have the Buffaloes playing their best and will come away with the victory on homecoming day. Colorado is the play.

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We like the Florida State Seminoles to defeat the California Golden Bears for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. Terrible start aside, the Seminoles still have more talent than Cal.

2. The Seminoles are angry. They've been embarrassed and now its time for some redemption.

3. The line is really low thanks to Florida State's bad start.

4. The Bears are playing their first ACC game and they are doing so nearly 2500 miles from home.

5. While playing with Oregon State, FSU QB Uiagalelei threw 5 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions in a win against Cal last year.

The real Seminoles will finally show up. This will be a rude welcome to the ACC for Cal. Florida State is the play.

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We like the Rice Owls to cover the spread against Amry for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The Owls lost at Houston last game. Off their previous loss, they responded with a 69-7 victory in their next game.

2. With 15 returning starters, Rice is a much improved team from last season.

3. Coach Bloomgren says this is his best team and this is his 7th season here.

4. Army only returned 3 starters on defense.

5. They covered against lowly Lehigh but the Knights are still only 27-34 ATS their last 61 home games. They're 0-3 ATS the last 3x times that they were home favorites of 14 points or less.

The Knights are favored but we're not convinced that they're the better team. It's likely going to be close and we expect to see Rice pull off the upset.

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We like the Washington State Cougars to defeat the San Jose State Spartans for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. Much improved from last season, the Cougars (3-0 SU and ATS) are on a roll and they've been beating good teams. They smashed Texas Tech last game here and they just beat rival Washington.

2. San Jose State is also 3-0 but has faced lesser competition. The Spartans only managed 18 first downs at home vs. Kennesaw State.

3. The Cougars won 31-0 the last time these teams met. It was the last time that WSU had a shutout. The Cougars had a 544-124 edge in yards and forced 11 punts.

4. Playing a home game with both teams on a short week favors the Cougars.

5. The Spartans have a new coach and brought back only 7 total starters from last year. It will finally catch up to them on Friday.

The line has come down and we're jumping in. Washington State is the play!

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We like South Alabama and Appalachian State to finish over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total might seem high but South Alabama just scored 87 points in its last game.

2. The Jaguars are averaging 512.3 yards of offense per game and 48.3 points.

3. The Jaguars can score but their defense can be really bad. They gave up 52 points and 550 yards in their loss to North Texas. They returned only 3 defensive starters from last year.

4. Appalachian State has had some great defenses but this doesn't seem to be one of them. The Mountaineers gave up 66 against Clemson and are allowing 31.7 points and 447 yards per game.

5. The Mountaineers scored 38 points in their only home game. Playing a home game on ESPN against a leaky South Alabama defense, they will be motivated to put up a large number.

This will be a fast-paced game with a lot of big plays. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers and the final score to go over the total.

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We really respect both these defenses but this total is too low. Last year's game had a total of 46.5 and Georgia exceeded that all by itself. The final score was 51-13. The Bulldogs already had 34 by halftime and could have scored more in the 2nd half if Kentucky had forced them to do. Even a really good defense can't stop the powerful Bulldogs. Georgia is already averaging better than 40 points per game. Kentucky just gave up 31 points to South Carolina last week. This year, at least the Wildcats play at home which means they should have more success in remaining competitive. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan with a mandate to have a faster paced offense. The Bulldogs could go over this number again by themselves. But they won't need to, Kentucky is going to be helping to get this final score over the total. The play is the over!

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San Jose State is 2-0 and we feel it's going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent to its big road game at Washington State next week. A large part of that stems from the fact that the Spartans are off an emotional upset road win over Air Force last week. That wasn't just any victory as it came against a service academy and SJ State coach Ken Niumatalolo coached at Navy for 15 years. This is still a young Spartan team with a new coaching staff. Last weekend Kennesaw State fell 34-10 to Louisiana-Lafayette, with Davis Bryson going 9 of 13 for 93 yards. We've got Louisiana ranked a lot higher than SJ State though. The Owls are an experienced team and now they have a couple of FBS games under their belts. We feel they're flying under the radar and providing great value as substantial underdog. They easily covered the spread in their first road game, at 12 point loss at UTSA. We've also got UTSA ranked a lot higher than SJ State The Spartans don't possess a potent offense and that makes covering a large number like this difficult. Should they manage to get up by a couple of scores, they may take their foot off the gas in the second half as they begin to prepare for their big contest the following week. Grab the points, the play is Kennesaw State!

We don't only expect Texas Tech to win this game, but we believe the Raiders will do so in blowout fashion in this favorable home matchup. UNT is 2-0 SU, but it's yet to face a quality opponent. Last week it pulled away for the 35-20 win over Stephen F. Austin. North Texas' QB Chandler Morris has already made a few mistakes, and that clearly won't get the job done here on the road in Week 3. Going from facing the Lumberjacks at home to facing a Big 12 team on the road will obviously be a huge difference. Texas Tech will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after last week's 37-16 loss to Washington State. What better way than to take on a weaker team from within their own state. Behern Morton was 34 of 48 for 322 yards last week and we believe he'll be a big difference-maker in the final outcome of this one. The Raiders scored more than 50 in their first game here. They will put up a big number again as The Mean Green allowed 476 yards per game and 37.1 points per game last season. UNT will hang for awhile but eventually won't be able to keep pace.

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Many think UNLV is a sexy "dark-horse" pick to qualify for the CFP in January, and while that may or may not go on to be true, we do expect the Rebels to keep their recent offensive momentum rolling here against a Kansas team that's looking to rebound from an upset 23-17 loss at Illinois as a five-point favorite. Before that game, Kansas had scored 48 or more in 3 straight. These teams played last year and the Jayhawks won 49-36 on Boxing Day. It was a complete shootout and all signs point to another high-scoring affair here in our opinion as well. That game had a total of 65. This lower one is giving a lot of value. UNLV is off a 72-14 victory over Utah Tech and is playing a very up-tempo brand of football. With both teams putting up big numbers, we think for sure this Week 3 matchup has "over" written all over it as well!

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Arizona State is in a big new conference this year and it has a golden opportunity to start off 3-0 before its first Big 12 game. The Sun Devils hammered Wyoming 48-7 in Week 1, then pulled away for the 30-23 home win over an SEC team (Mississippi State) last week. With several much tougher games on the horizon, this one takes on added importance. Texas State is also 2-0, most recently beating UTSA by a score of 49-10. Before that, the Bobcats beat Lamar. A Big 12 opponent, even one brand new to the conference, is a big step up. Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo was the AP national player of the week after he rushed for 33 times for 262 yards in the win over Mississippi State. He will have another big game. The Bobcats are only 1-3 against the number the past 4 times that they were home underdogs. Sun Devils move to 3-0!
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USC is off the 27-20 Week 1 win over LSU in Las Vegas as a four-point underdog and now the Trojans will take a big step down in class. The Trojans are now in the more difficult Big Ten, and with a week off before a trip to Michigan, followed by the heart of the conference schedule, we're absolutely expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. USC will put up a crooked number but Utah State won't be rolling over. These types of nationally televised affairs are huge for these smaller schools. Last week the Aggies posted 646 total yards of offense in their 36-14 win over Robert Morris. Bryson Barnes went 11 of 21 for 198 yards and two TD's in last week's win, while also rushing for another 88 yards and a rushing TD. Miller Moss was 27 of 36 for 378 yards and a TD for the Trojans. With these two QB's pushing the pace offensively like we suspect here on Saturday night, everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. Or at least that's what they're trying to lead us to believe. We feel that Cincinnati though could or should in fact be a bigger favorite here at home. Remember, the Bearcats won at Pittsburgh last season and with 15 starters, this is a much improved team. Pittsburgh is off a 55-24 win over Kent as a 24-point favorite at home, but now on the road, we believe the Panthers will struggle. Cincinnati is off a 38-20 win over Towson at home, unable to cover the large 34.5-point spread. In our opinion, the home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Pittsburgh got a big game out of Eli Holstein last week, but we don't see him duplicating that here against this much more difficult Bearcats' defensive unit. Cincinnati finished with 658 total yards of offense last week and the defense forced one fumble and posted three sacks. Up against a Pitt defense which returned only 4 starters, look for the Bearcats to find a way to get the job done in front of the hometown crowd in Week 2.

Both teams are confident heading into this one at 1-0. Duke managed the 26-3 win over Elon, almost covering the 24.5-point spread, while Northwestern held on for a 13-6 victory over Miami Ohio as a 3-point fav. The new players now have a game under their belts. Clearly the oddsmakers feel this will be a competitive game by setting a spread like this, but they're also trying to convince us that this will be extremely low scoring and we're just not buying it. This game could go "over" this small number and still be an overall lower-scoring game and that's what we're expecting. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced off, Duke winning each of the previous three. Keep in mind that all 3 games produced more than 50 points. Mike Wright will be able to move the ball a lot better in the Wildcats' temporary lake-side home, but the defense will have a more difficult time this week. QB Maalik Murphy had a big day for Duke last week, and we're expecting him to once again push the pace here. While we're not calling for this one to go "over" by halftime or anything, everything does indeed point to the total eclipsing the very low posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!"

After their national embarrassment in Week 0, the Seminoles have a lot of work to do to get back into the CFP talk. Florida State did inexplicably fall to Georgia Tech 24-21 as a ten-point favorite, but we're expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Florida State also won't have forgotten its incredibly "close call" vs. Boston College last year, holding on for the 31-29 victory as a 27.5-point favorite. Last week's loss was in Dublin, so perhaps that really did have an effect on FSU. This is Boston College's first game of the year and its first game with Bill O'Brien as head coach. DJ Uiagalelei only had 173 yards last week, but we anticipate him moving the ball much more effectively here at home. Thomas Castellanos is a competent dual-threat QB for BC, but he owns just a 57.1 completion percentage. The moral of the story?! Let's not overreact to one bad performance. We're laying the points on FLORIDA STATE on Monday night!

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10* Wyoming (NON-CONF GOM)

We're not predicting an outright win or anything, but we think that Wyoming will comfortably cover with the larger spread that it has been afforded in this one. Last year the Cowboys went 9-4 overall, including 7-5-1 ATS, while Arizona State was 3-9 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. Wyoming has a new head coach in Jay Sawvel, who was the defensive coordinator last year. The Cowboys were third in the MWC in stopping the run and overall they conceded just 22.9 PPG. The offense revolves around the run game and Harrison Waylee. Evan Svoboda gets the call under center and he'll be looking to bring balance to this Wyoming offense this season. Arizona State makes its debut as a Big 12 Football school. ASU only averaged 17.8 PPG last year so it went out and got Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt, who has decent receivers, but a new offensive line. It's going to take him some time to get used to his new team, and that leaves the door here open for Wyoming down the stretch; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Cowboys!

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8* Minnesota (BLOWOUT)

These teams have new faces on both sides of the ball. Each had a sub-par season last year, and each faces difficulties this season. Both start new QB's. UNC lost star QB Drake Maye and has two different guys to test out to start the season in Conner Harrell and Max Johnson. Each has experience and is decent, but we believe will take some time to fit in this system. Both teams struggled on defense last year and each hired new defensive coordinators. Minnesota also has a new QB in Max Brosmer, but he was the No. 1 FCS QB last year at New Hampshire, finishing with a 29:6 TD:INT and throwing for 3,459 passing yards. Both teams have strong running games as well. We say Brosmer keeps his team competitive in this one and that it's the UNC QB's that take some time to figure things out. Outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MINNESOTA.

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8* SMU (TOP SIDE)

We're going to say that Nevada will have a difficult time moving the ball and keeping pace with SMU, which finished 8-0 in the AAC last year, beating Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. But now the Mustangs are transitioning over to the ACC. SMU though is projected to finish in the top half of what really is a big conference now. Last year the Mustangs finished 22nd in the FBS in passing offnese with 278.4 YPG, while going 40th in rushing. Overall they averged 48.7 PPG, while allowing just 17.6 (QB Preston Stone is back under center this year as well.) SMU has a strong run game as well. Nevada on the other hand finished just 2-10. Ken Wilson is out as head coach, and Jeff Choate is in. Last year the Wolf Pack finished 111th in the country in passing offense with 175.2 YPG, while finishing 98th in rushing offense. Overall Nevada averaged only 17.8 PPG, while allowing 33.4. Brendon Lewis is the Week 0 starting QB for Nevada, last year he had two TD's and six INT's. Also note that Nevada had to replace its four starting WR's from last season. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout, so lay the points, the play is indeed on SMU!

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10* UNDER Washington/Michigan (TOW)

We think the time off between games will be detrimental to these offenses, and beneficial to the defenses early on. Note that when these teams met in 2021, the combined to score just 41 points. The Wolverines will be content throughout to let the clock run on offense as they use the run to set up the pass. This Michigan defense just held Alabama to 288 total yards of offnse in the win over the Rose Bowl and we're anticipating Michael Penix Jr. to have a hell of a time in this one as well. Everything points to this total being just a bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Wisconsin (BOWL GOY)

Wisconsin finished 7-5, while LSU was 9-3. We're not calling for an outright win or anything, but all signs definitely point to a much more competitive bowl game here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Badgers won 28-14 at Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites in their final regular season game. LSU fell 42-28 at Alabama on November 4th, but then rattled off three straight wins to close out the year, including 42-30 over Texas A&M. LSU averaged 46.4 PPG, which was No. 1 in the country. It also had 14 turnovers on the year, which ranked third. The offense had to be good though, as the defense was pretty terrible allowing 27.8 PPG. With many players transfering into the portal, LSU will have plenty of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. The Badgers only averaged 22.8 PPG, but they didn't usually have to be fantastic offensively, with the defense conceding just 18.9 PPG. Look for the longer lay off to throw a further "monkey wrench" into LSU's normally efficient offense; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Badgers!

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* Ole Miss (BOWL GOM)

This is the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Ole Miss and Penn State. Ole Miss finished 10-2, while PSU finished 10-2 as well. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. These teams are hoping to take the next step in their respective conferences next season. James Franklin and Penn State won 11 games last year, but we don't expect "lightning to strike twice" this time around. Ole Miss though is looking for its first 11-win season in school history. SEC QB Jaxson Dart is a difference-maker here, as his stats were among the best in the SEC. Penn State is extremely talented defensively, but the Ole Miss offense is extremely efficient. It's a battle of strength vs. strength and while the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Ole Miss!

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10* Ohio State (BLOCKBUSTER)

The knock against Ohio State here is that it's down to its second string QB, which is true, but we in fact think that helps the Buckeyes here. The Tigers are missing two key defensive players in Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, and when those two players were missing earlier in the year, Missouri allowed 267 yards rushing. Which doesn't bode well facing this Ohio State offense and QB Devin Brown, who was in a battle for the No. 1 spot with Kyle McCord before the season started and before he got injured. Brown was 12 of 22 for 197 yards, two TD's and an INT this year, but he'll know that this is a "try-out" for him to be the No. 1 guy next year, as McCord has already left. The Buckeyes only allow 260 yards per game. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover and lay the points with confidence!

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10* WILDCATS (BOWL WINNER)

Arizona is 9-3 and the Sooners are 10-2. Oklahoma will be without start QB Dillon Gabriel though, as well as their offensive coordinator and a slew of other offensive starters. Because of this fact, and this fact alone, we're going to take the Wildcats here. They have a great QB in Noah Fiftia, who had to step in for an injured Jay de Laura. The Wildcats losses were all close. This is a good, motivated and well-coached team that we're expecting to take advantage of the situation presented to them; lay the short points, the play is indeed on Arizona!

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10* Texas A&M (BLOCKBUSTER)

Texas A&M finished 7-5, while Oklahoma State was 9-4. Both teams have plenty of transfers and opt outs for this one, and it really does level the playing field here. This one is going to come down to the wire and whichever team has it hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Texas A&M turns to Jaylen Henderson under center and he averaged 234.7 yards per game over his final three games and had two TD's. The Aggies have a great defense as well that allows just 21.3 PPG. Oklahoma State has seven players opting out. The Cowboys rank dead last in the Big 12 on the defensive end, allowing 441.5 yards per game; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Aggies!

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10* UNLV (ROUT)

UNLV is one of the bigger dogs during the entire Bowl season, but we think this spread is a little TOO large. Kansas finished 8-4, while UNLV was 9-4, finishing in a tie for first place in the MWC. The Jayhawks beat Cincinnati 49-16 back on November 25th. Jason Bean replaced Jaylon Daniels at QB during the season and threw for 1,681 yards and a 12:4 TD:INT. Overall the Jayhawks finished averaging 33.6 PPG, while conceding 25.8. UNLV is lead by QB Jayden Maiava, who finished with 2,794 passing yards and a 14:8 TD:INT. The Rebels averaged 34.3 PPG, while conceding 27. The Rebels are also 6-0 ATS on the road this year and while we're stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this contest being MUCH more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; grab the points the play is UNLV!

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10* Texas State (ROUT)

We think the 7-5 Texas State Bobcat's up-tempo offense will be too much for the 6-6 Rice Owls to keep up with. This is a big game for Texas State, making its first ever bowl appearance, and it won't be taking anything for granted. CJ Kinne has transformed the Bobcats into a good team. QB TJ Finley, wh ohas experience at LSU and Auburn is a difference-maker in this one. The Owls aren't the best at creating take-aways on defense and we have a hard time seeing their QB AJ Padgett keeping pace. Look for Texas State to push the pace behind Finley and for Kinne to continue this great overall season and turnaround for Texas State!

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10* Arkansas State (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams enter at 6-6, but we feel this is a matchup that favors Arkansas State. The RedWolves return to a bowl game for the first time since 2019. In the end Arkansas State finished 6-5-1 ATS this year. Good news for the RedWolves is that their entire starting offense will be available in this one, including Jaylen Rayn, who had 2,300 passing yards and a 15:6 TD/INT. NIU won its final two games to become eligible, but overall the Huskies finished the year 5-7 ATS. Rocky Lombardi will be under center and he threw for 2,074 yards and had a 10:5 TD/INT. We feel this one will be decided by the men under center ultimately and that's why we're backing Arkansas State; so lay the short points with confidence!

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

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10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

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10* Cal (BLOWOUT)

Both teams enter the Independence Bowl at 6-6 and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. This game features plenty of absences via the transfer portal and opt outs, and because of that, these teams are more evenly matched than ever in our estimation. Cal goes with QB Fernand Mendoza under center, while Texas Tech QB Behren Morton. The Bears though have overall looked more solid offense down the stretch and Texas Tech has already struggled in this spot this season, going just 1-3 SU/ATS as a road favorite. Granted, this is a neutral site game, but it doesn't matter. While we feel the outright win is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Cal!

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8* Georgia Southern (BLOWOUT)

Ohio finished 9-3, while Georgia Southern finished 6-6. So why are the Eagles favored in this one? Ohio sees QB Kurtis Rourke enter the transfer portal, well its backup QB CJ Harris has been sidelined with injury. Parker Navarro will make the start here for the Bobcats and we're predicting that he predictably stumbles here in this difficult situation. The Eagles are led by second year head coach Clay Helton, who makes his second straight bowl appearance. Georgia Southern is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this season and we think its defense will be able to set up its offense in this one; lay the points, the play is indeed on Georgia Southern!

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10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

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10* Tulane (AAC GOM)

Tulane is 11-1 and SMU is 10-2. Tulane is looking to beceome the third program to repeat as AAC Champions. SMU stands in the way. When these teams played last year though, the Green Wave rolled to an immense 59-24 victory and we're expecting a similar blowout here. SMU has been playing some great football, winning eight in a row. But in the only two AAC teams they faced during that stretch, the Mustangs went 0-2 ATS. The fact that Tulane has been here and done this already really does matter; lay the points, the play is the Green Wave!

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