9* Under Padres/Rockies (3:10 ET): We saw a combined 16 runs and 29 hits from these teams yesterday, but that was after the first two games of the series both stayed Under. The Rockies, as per usual, on average have the highest scoring home games in the league. But that average is still only 11.3 runs per game. I’m a little surprised what’s happened to the Padres in this series. I took them (and won) on Monday as they avenged a prior sweep by Colorado, but since then it’s been back to back losses. Look for the scoring to drop in this afternoon’s series finale as we’ve got an all-lefty starting pitching matchup here. 

Blake Snell may have a lousy won-loss record for San Diego (1-8), but he is coming off two straight impressive outings where he allowed just one run both times and struck out 23 batters in just 11 innings. Furthermore, Snell has pitched relatively well in two starts against the Rockies this year and most importantly both games saw 11 or fewer total runs scored. In eight of Snell’s nine starts this year, there have been fewer than 11 runs scored. In seven of those games, the Padres have scored three runs or less. The Padres’ bullpen has also been pretty solid of late, ranking seventh in team ERA since June 1st.

Colorado will send Kyle Freeland out to the hill today. Freeland is off a rough outing in Arizona, but had a strong June with four quality starts. He also beat the Padres twice last month, allowing just six runs in 13 IP. Even with the “benefit” of Coors Field, I don’t see these two lineups coming close to matching yesterday’s output. San Diego came into yday’s game averaging only 2.9 runs over the last week while Colorado wasn’t much better (3.7) and was batting just .209 over that same stretch. These two pitchers are better than you think and neither lineup is all that good. 9* Under Padres/Rockies

9* Under Tigers/Royals (2:10 ET): After being swept in Monday’s doubleheader, the Tigers bounced back with a 7-5 win last night, which was good for me as I gave them out. For this afternoon’s finale, we turn to the total as Tarik Skubal goes for the visitors and Brady Singer for the home team. We know the Tigers probably won’t score many runs here. Despite yesterday’s offensive output, they are 29th (second to last) in most major offensive categories, including runs scored. Going into yesterday, they were averaging only 2.7 rpg on the road for the season. 

Detroit definitely had some help in getting to seven runs yesterday. Kansas City committed four errors, three of those coming in the seventh when the Tigers would go on to score four times. Don’t look for the Royals to be so generous in the field again here. As for Singer, he’s got a solid 1.041 WHIP at home. He also beat the Tigers earlier this month, allowing just two runs in 4 ⅔ IP. Last time out, Singer went seven innings and allowed only three runs. So he’s in good form. Again, facing the Tigers lineup is pretty much a “dream scenario” for any pitcher. 

On the other side, Skubal is also coming off a quality start as he held the White Sox to two runs over six innings. Skubal has pretty decent numbers on the road (3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP). Back in May, this is a pitcher who had an 18-inning scoreless streak and didn’t allow any runs in four of five outings. There were a couple of rough starts in June and he did allow five runs when he faced KC earlier this month. But the Royals are in last place for a reason; they average just 3.5 rpg here at home. Look for this to be a low-scoring, daytime affair. 9* Under Tigers/Royals

9* Under Pirates/Marlins (6:40 ET): This will be the first time these teams meet in 2022. Miami, an underrated team, is coming off a 2-0 win Sunday over the Mets to earn a split of that series and move within two games of .500. With Sandy Alcantara on the bump, I had the Marlins yesterday as my NL East Game of the Month. The team has a positive run differential. The same cannot be said for Pittsburgh (-129), who continues to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball despite just taking two of three from first place Milwaukee over the weekend. I do not expect many runs to be scored in Monday’s game. Take the Under.

Miami’s Trevor Rogers was second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, but it now can be argued that he’s going through a bit of a “sophomore slump.” Rogers has made it through a full six innings just once in 16 starts this year. But recently there have been signs of a turnaround as he’s allowed 3 ER in each of his L3 starts. Tonight he’ll be facing a Pirates lineup that is near the bottom of the league at 3.4 runs per game on the road with a .214 batting average. Rogers allowed only four hits and had five strikeouts last night, encouraging skipper Don Mattingly. The Under is 17-6-5 in Pittsburgh’s L28 road games vs. a southpaw starter. Since June 1st, they are bottom four overall in both batting average and slugging. 

Mitch Keller is going for the Bucs here. His last start was a disaster with the team losing 16-0 to the Yankees. But he’s not facing the Yankees this time. It should be noted that Keller allowed only four of those runs against the Yanks. Last month, Keller allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts. Miami’s lineup has not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball as they’ve averaged only 2.6 runs over the L7 games with a .213 average. Both of these teams have seen eight or fewer totals runs scored in six of the last eight games. 9* Under Pirates/Marlins

9* Over Tigers/White Sox (2:10 ET): So I also like the Over in this game. Yes, Detroit is last in the league in runs scored on the road and overall. But it’s undeniable that they’ve been a lot better at the plate lately, scoring seven or more runs in three of the last four games. I had the Under in the series opener (which won!), but that’s the only game during the current six-game win streak where the Tigers did NOT score at least four runs.

Also, while Cueto has pitched quite well of late, it’s probably going to take a healthy number of runs for the White Sox to win this game. At home, they are allowing a stunning average of 5.8 rpg, which is the MOST in all of baseball, even more than what the Rockies allow at Coors Field. We’re still a half-run below the key number of 9.0 with this total and I think there’s value on the Over.  Both teams are averaging more than 5.4 rpg over the last week. Look for the home team to win a high-scoring ballgame on Saturday. 9* Over Tigers/White Sox

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

9* Under Tigers/White Sox (8:10 ET): Both teams are coming off wins yesterday afternoon. The White Sox escaped with a 9-8 victory over the Twins in extra innings (good for me!) while the Tigers actually completed a four-game sweep of the Guardians with an 8-2 victory. That was also good for me as I had the Over in that Cleveland-Detroit game. This one promises to feature a lot fewer runs with Dylan Cease pitching for Chicago and the Tigers now being the road team. Make sure you’re on the Under for this series opener of AL Central foes.

Cease has been one of the American League’s top pitchers this season and is showing zero signs of letting up. The team has won each of the last four times he has started and over the last seven, Cease has a 0.46 ERA, having allowed only TWO runs during that entire stretch (in 39 ⅓ IP!). Here he faces a Tigers lineup that is dead last in MLB in scoring and that average dips even further when they’re on the road (2.7 runs per game). The Tigers are batting just .217 away from home, so don’t look for the same kind of scoring we saw from them in the Cleveland series. Cease is also 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA vs. Detroit in 11 career starts. 

 The White Sox have given up a lot of runs at home this season (5.8 rpg), but as I mentioned in yday’s analysis, that number HAS to start coming down. With Cease on the mound, it is likely the home team wins this one, which should mean no bottom of the ninth and that’s always a benefit when playing the Under. That being said, Detroit’s Beau Brieske is off a quality outing and has seen five of his last six starts stay Under. So don’t look for the White Sox to do much scoring tonight either. 9* Under Tigers/White Sox

8* Over Guardians/Tigers (1:10 ET): This has been a terrible series thus far for Cleveland, who not only got swept in a doubleheader on Monday, but then also lost 11-4 last night. That was my lone loss on Tuesday’s card (had the Guardians) as the Tigers have now won three in a row for just the third time all season. I’m not about to back them considering how they’ve overperformed their run differential this season. Being outscored by 89 runs, Detroit has a win expectancy of 28 games right now, but they are instead 33-47. But while I can’t back either side in this spot, I do like the total. 

Going back to last season, Tigers’ starter Michael Pineda has seen the Under hit in eight consecutive outings. I believe that streak ends today. Pineda’s individual numbers aren’t all that great, so you wouldn’t expect him to be someone with a perfect Under mark. His exit velocity is quite poor and there are several other advanced metrics which suggest regression is forthcoming for Mr. Pineda, who also gave up a pair of home runs in his last start. Cleveland had 11 hits in yesterday’s game and seems poised to break out of its slump at the plate here after going just 2 for 8 with RISP and leaving nine men on base Tuesday. 

Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians today. He has good-looking career marks vs. the Tigers, who also happen to be the lowest scoring team in the big leagues. This is why the Guardians still have the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers, despite losing three times to the Tigers in the last two days. But I expect Bieber to give up a few runs this afternoon. Like Pineda, Bieber has not pitched as well as some raw numbers might suggest. The Tigers do average more runs per game at home than on the road. In fact, it’s almost a full run per game difference. Look for this to be a surprisingly high-scoring affair. 8* Over Guardians/Tigers

10* Under Giants/D’backs (9:40 ET): The Giants, who finished the regular season with the best record in baseball in 2021, have really been stumbling of late. They’ve lost 11 of 14 and five in a row to fall out of Wild Card position in the National League. I’m not totally shocked by the regression, given that they had zero chance of matching LY’s historically profitable campaign (+45.8 units!). While I’m not confident enough to take the Giants today, one bit of good news for them is that I don’t think there’s any chance that Arizona scores eight runs again like they did yesterday. Take the Under in this NL West matchup.

The Diamondbacks are hitting a collective .218 this season, so yesterday’s outbreak at the plate was definitely rare. Now it was the fifth time in seven games they scored at least seven runs, but note that three of those were played at Coors Field in Denver. I think regression at the plate is coming even as the D’backs are set to face Alex Wood, who has struggled a bit recently. But Wood did allow just three runs in his last start (which ended up a 3-2 loss) and he is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 previous appearances vs. Arizona. 

Meanwhile, the Giants aren’t doing much hitting at all lately. The team batting average over the last seven games is just .195 and they’re averaging less than three runs per game. Now, a matchup with Tyler Gilbert seems tantalizing, but consider all of Gilbert’s previous starts have come on the road. We’ve got two lefties here, in a division matchup, and that’s a situation that historically lends itself to an Under. This total seems too high. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

8* Over Mariners/Padres (4:10 ET): The Mariners showed up ready to rock on Monday, surprising me with an 8-2 win here in San Diego, who was a heavy favorite at home. After today, this brief series will be over. It’s certainly tempting to try with the Padres again as they look to avenge yesterday’s loss, but it’s also hard to overlook the fact they are just 2-7 over the last nine games. I think taking the Over is the “safer bet” here as both of Tuesday’s starters are likely to regress as the season moves forward. 

No pitching staff has a lower ERA than the Mariners’ 2.81 over the L37 games. Logan Gilbert, who is on the mound today, has certainly played a role in that with a top seven ERA in the American League, not to mention he’s holding opponents to a .227 batting average and has a 1.12 WHIP. But there are signs of regression such as a 4.09 xERA and a relatively high hard hit rate. San Diego hits righties a lot better than they do lefties and I think this is actually a pretty favorable matchup for a lineup that’s been underperforming of late. The Over is 5-0 the past five times the Padres have faced the Mariners. 

Mike Clevinger is still undefeated this year for the Padres. The team has gone 6-0 when he starts and his ERA & WHIP are even lower than Gilbert’s. But I also see regression forthcoming for Clevinger as he doesn’t strike out a ton of batter and there’s been only one time (his last start) where he made it through six innings. The Mariners’ lineup is really good at drawing walks, so they should get plenty of runners on base against Clevinger here. Once upon a time, we would have to be concerned about the M’s losing the DH from the lineup in this matchup. That’s not the case anymore. 8* Over Mariners/Padres

9* Under Angels/Astros (4:10 ET): This division matchup saw the home team (Houston) come out ahead on Friday, 8-1, in a rather lopsided affair. The Angels, now 13.5 games back of the ‘Stros in the AL West, will look to even up the series on Saturday with Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Sandoval has been the team’s most reliable starter outside of Shohei Ohtani with a 2.63 ERA for the year and he’s allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. But the problem for the Halos is that they have now gone seven straight games without scoring more than four runs. I like taking Unders in divisional battles and that certainly looks like the right play here. 

Houston’s lineup hadn’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball recently; they’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last seven games. There was a bit of “cluster luck” yesterday with a six-run third inning, something I certainly don’t think we’ll see be repeated today. When Sandoval faced the Astros back in April, all he allowed was an unearned run in four innings of work. Also, the Under is 7-3-2 in Sandoval’s starts this season and none of the last three have seen more than eight totals runs scored. Houston came into this series having hit a collective .223 over the last week.

While I think they’ll certainly do a better job with run suppression this afternoon, the problem for the Angels here is obviously going to be at the plate. It doesn’t help that Astros’ pitching has been downright filthy of late. Cristian Javier struck out 14 Angels last night. It was the sixth time in seven games that the Astros allowed one or zero runs! Look for Jose Urquidy to keep the trend going as he has a 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts, all quality outings. His last time out, the only hit Urquidy allowed in 7 IP was a solo home run. That was against the Yankees. In fact, he just held two of the three highest scoring teams in baseball (Yankees & Mets) to two runs and five hits in 13 IP. 9* Under Angels/Astros

9* Under Dodgers/Braves (7:05 ET): This rematch of last year’s NLCS has seen each team win a game thus far. The Dodgers took Friday’s series opener 4-1 while the Braves bounced back with a 5-3 victory last night. Don’t expect many runs to be scored in tonight’s rematch (on ESPN). That’s because the Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin, who is 9-0 (10-3 TSR) with a 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s a major reason why the team leads the National League in run prevention this season (just 2.9 rpg allowed on the road). 

Now LA’s offense hasn’t done all that much so far in the series, scoring just seven runs in two games. Tonight they’ll face Spencer Strider, who has pitched much better than his 5.40 ERA would seem to indicate. Over his L3 starts, Strider has a 0.999 WHIP. He struggled his last time out, giving up six runs (on six hits) in just 3 ⅔ innings. But prior to that subpar outing, Strider turned in a three-start stretch where he allowed just three runs over 15 ⅓ IP. He had an 11-strikeout game vs. Washington on 6/15. 

The Braves have of course had a ridiculous June, going 18-4 overall this month. Last night marked the 14th time in those 22 games that they allowed three runs or less. Yet they’ve still allowed 70 more runs than the Dodgers have this season, which just goes to show how stingy the NL West leaders are. The Dodgers are still the class of the Senior Circuit in my view (#2 in the overall power rankings behind the Yankees). They allow, by far, the fewest number of runs per game on the road. Both bullpens are solid. 9* Under Dodgers/Braves

9* Over Orioles/White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox have won six of nine, but just can’t seem to get above .500. They lost yesterday, 9-5 to the Blue Jays, ending what was a high-scoring series (all three games went Over). Chicago took the first two games of that series to get back to .500. But mind you, their YTD run differential (now -41) says they are lucky to even be “sniffing” .500. Their opponents this weekend, Baltimore, are a team everyone expected to finish in last place (again) in the AL East and that is where they currently reside. The underachieving White Sox probably feel pretty good about their chances in this game, but I think the better bet is on the total.

The Orioles have seen three straight games stay Under the total. They just exchanged a pair of shutouts in the last series, which was against Washington, another last place ballclub. Wednesday, it was the O’s turn to blank the Nats as they won 7-0. Over the L5 games, Baltimore pitching has allowed three runs or less four times. There have been two shutouts and another game where they won 2-1. One of the shutouts was started by Dean Kremer, who gets the baseball again tonight. It was last Friday that Kremer tossed six shutout innings against the Rays. In three starts this year, he now has a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. 

But I don’t see Kremer holding down this White Sox offense, which has begun to round into form. Over the L10 games, Chicago has scored five or more runs eight times. They had 41 hits in the three games vs. Toronto. But on the flip side, the White Sox do allow 5.9 runs per game at home, the most in all of baseball. I’m not buying Johnny Cueto, who gets the starting nod Thursday and has a 2.63 ERA. Cueto hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 for a full season since 2018 and he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. He has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore, who easily could have scored more than seven runs yesterday (as the game was shortened to six innings because of rain). 9* Over Orioles/White Sox

10* Under Cubs/Pirates (12:35 ET): These are two of the worst teams in baseball and all three games in the series have been blowouts. Pittsburgh won the first two, 12-1 and 7-1, while the Cubs struck back yesterday for a 14-5 victory. Perhaps the Cubs winning on Wednesday should have been expected considering Pittsburgh found itself on a season-high three-game win streak. Them scoring five runs last night was also a bit misleading as they put four “meaningless” ones on the board in the bottom of the ninth and finished the game with just five hits. The Cubs also scored four times in the ninth. I think we’ll see a much lower-scoring game Thursday afternoon in the series finale. 

Justin Steele will start this one for the Cubbies. He has a 1.89 ERA in his L3 starts. While Steele’s numbers on the road aren’t all that great, it’s a small sample size with only four of his 13 starts this year coming away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Steele also has had just one “bad” start in 2022 (where he gave up seven runs to Cincinnati). Other than that, he’s not allowed more than 3 ER in ANY start. Over those last three starts, he’s limited the Cardinals, Padres and Braves to just five total runs in 19 IP. Surely then, he can handle a Pirates’ lineup which comes into today 28th in baseball (third worst) in runs per game. 

Steele should limit the amount of runs scored by the home team, but what kind of support should he expect? Probably not much. While the Cubs scored 14 runs yesterday, they did so on 13 hits and got a grand slam. Previous to yesterday’s win, the Cubs had scored one run or less in four of five games. They’ll face Jose Quintana on Thursday. Quintana has a solid 3.18 ERA in eight home starts this year. The home run has been a problem for Quintana in the L2 starts (allowed five of them), but that seems like an aberration given the fact he had allowed just TWO HR’s prior to that all season. This will be his third time facing the Cubs in 2022; he’s allowed just three runs in 10 innings so far. 10* Under Cubs/Pirates

10* Under Dodgers/Reds (6:40 ET): Back in April, the Dodgers swept a four-game series with the Reds, outscoring them 26-7 at Chavez Ravine. That was during Cincy’s horrific 3-22 start to the season. Since then, they’ve stabilized a bit, basically playing .500 ball. But they’re still last in the NL Central (23-43) and deserved underdogs in this matchup as LA comes in with (by far) the best run differential in the National League (+114). But the big difference compared to the last time these teams met is that this series will be contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds will also have Tyler Mahle on the bump Tuesday and he’s pitched rather well of late. 

Over his last three starts, Mahle has turned in a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He hasn’t received a decision in that stretch, but did just throw nine innings of three-hit ball (with 12 strikeouts!) his last time out, vs. Arizona. According to STATS, it marked the first time since 1900 that a starting pitcher threw nine scoreless innings on the road with 12+ strikeouts and did NOT get the win. Mahle did throw a career-high 119 pitches vs. the D’backs, but that 5-3 final was obviously quite misleading as all eight runs scored in the game came after the ninth (game went 12 innings).

Over the last eight games, the Dodgers have been held to four or fewer runs SEVEN times. So they’ll need a strong effort on the mound as well. Fortunately, they’re giving the baseball to Tony Gonsolin on Tuesday. Not only is Gonsolin 8-0 in his 12 starts this season, he has a 1.42 ERA and 0.821 WHIP. His last three starts have been downright filthy with a 0.49 ERA and 0.546 WHIP. Gonsolin has not allowed more than three runs in any start this year and that includes four shutout innings vs. Cincinnati in the series back in April. He’s gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Should be a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this one. 10* Under Dodgers/Reds

9* Over Brewers/Reds (6:40 ET): These NL Central rivals have faced off six times this season. All six games have gone Over the total. Four of those games have seen at least 15 total runs scored, all of them have seen at least nine scored. The Brew Crew arrives in the Queen City in poor form, having dropped 10 of 12. While they’ve been shutout in four of those games, I expect they’ll find success offensively here against the suspect pitching of the Reds, which has allowed the fourth most runs in all of MLB this season. The Over is 18-11 at Great American Ballpark this year with an average of 11.7 rpg scored. 

After an absolutely horrific 3-22 start to the year, the Reds have stabilized and played better than .500 ball over the last month. There are actually seven teams with worse run differentials and Cincy is now poised to climb out of the NL Central cellar (tied with the Cubs) and they’re only two games back of third place (albeit a terrible division). But while Friday’s starter Hunter Greene is coming off B2B solid outings, he still has a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Greene faced Milwaukee twice in May and one of those starts saw him allow FIVE home runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. As you already know, both starts ended up going Over the total. The Reds’ bullpen also stinks and the Brewers have 22 hits in the L2 games. 

Milwaukee counters with southpaw Eric Lauer, who has struggled as of late. The team has lost each of his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over the total. During that time, Lauer has an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.80. The Reds are scoring 6.0 rpg at home this season, which is 1st in all of baseball, even ahead of the Rockies at Coors Field. Lifetime, Lauer is 1-4 with a 4.25 ERA against the Reds, which includes 0-2 (4.20 ERA) in three starts last season. Surprisingly, he has not started any of the six previous head to head meetings in ‘22. 9* Over Brewers/Reds

9* Over Braves/Cubs (2:20 ET): Talk about a couple teams heading in different directions. Winners of 14 straight, the Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now and are coming off an off-day. Now it should be pointed out that the defending World Series Champs have taken advantage of an easy schedule, which has seen them face Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Pittsburgh & Washington this month. But give them credit for winning all of those games. The Cubs have lost their last 10 games after being swept here at home by San Diego to start the week. They’ve allowed a total of 90 runs during the losing streak! 

Unless the wind today at Wrigley is blowing in at some record level, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this series opener. I’ve already given you an inkling at the current state of Cubs’ pitching. Today’s starter Keegan Thompson has a 6.26 ERA and 1.609 WHIP this season and the last time he pitched, the Cubs ended up losing 18-4 to the Yankees. The start before that saw Thompson surrender seven runs (in just three innings) to Baltimore. Here he faces a Braves lineup that has scored 101 runs during its current win streak and averaged 7.0 per game the L7 days. The road team could conceivably send this one Over by themselves. 

But they probably won’t “have” to, considering who they have pitching. While the Cubs’ Thompson has seen his L3 starts all go Over, Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has seen 11 of 12 starts this year go Over the total, including nine straight! Morton has a 5.67 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 2022 and those numbers both get worse on the road. Morton has surrendered exactly four runs in four straight starts, never lasting more than six innings. The Cubs’ lineup has been surprisingly decent against right-handed pitching and Over is the only way to play this daytime matchup. 9* Over Braves/Cubs

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (3:05 ET): Let’s try with the Under again on this AL East matchup. It may not have worked out for us back on Tuesday, but I think this is a great spot to try again as the Orioles are coming off back to back games where they scored six runs, which is a rarity. For the year, they are averaging only 3.9 rpg on the road and they have a team batting average of .229 in all games. While these teams have been an exception to the rule, usually it’s a good idea to play Unders in division games. With Toronto being such a solid favorite, it’s likely that they’ll win and that’s (hopefully) three less outs we have to worry about.

Now the Blue Jays did lose that game on Tuesday, 6-5. Then they blew a 5-0 lead yesterday, before battling back to win 7-6 in 10 innings. But the odds of them winning today, inside of nine innings seems strong. They’ve got Kevin Gausman starting. He used to pitch for Baltimore and was their top draft choice in 2012. His six seasons with the Orioles went OK, but when you look at the individual record, remember that he was pitching for a bad team. Gausman’s first year in Toronto has (predictably) been a lot better (although his TSR is only 7-5) and he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.189 WHIP. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start this season. 

At the plate, Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball during a 15-5 run. But the “x-factor” in this game is Orioles’ starting pitcher Tyler Wells, who has a 2.81 ERA and 0.875 WHIP his last three starts. Like Gausman, Wells has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Both are coming off quality starts here. With the teams being “due” for an Under, let’s play accordingly as the Orioles are set to regress (at the plate), but Wells should keep Toronto in check. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

9* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): The White Sox string of Overs (five in a row) ended yesterday when they defeated Detroit 5-1. Still badly “in the hole” when it comes to run differential (-48), they’ll try and move within a game of .500 today as they look to finish off the sweep. But, because of said run differential, and the fact the inconsistent Vince Velasquez is on the bump, I’m not about to back Chicago. But I also can’t back the Tigers knowing they are - by far - the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. 

What aids the Tigers’ cause in this daytime matchup is the fact they have Alex Faedo starting. Faedo brings a 2.92 ERA into Wednesday and has arguably been the team’s most consistent starter. He’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his seven outings, although he’s also yet to pitch after the sixth inning. But that’s okay because the Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good this season, posting a 3.00 ERA. Yes, the White Sox have scored 5+ runs in six straight games, but they also average just 3.9 on the road for the year.

Detroit wishes it averaged 3.9 runs per game. They are last in the league at 2.8 and trail the second worst team by half a run per game.They are 29th (second worst) in OBP and dead last in slugging. So don’t expect many runs from the home team today. They’ve scored no more than three in five of the last six contests. I did mention earlier that Velasquez has been inconsistent for Chicago, but he’s capable of handling a lineup that struck out 14 times yesterday and went 0 for 8 with RISP. 9* Under White Sox/Tigers

8* Over Marlins/Phillies (7:05 ET): Both the Marlins and the Phillies have been hot as of late, but neither has been able to make up much ground in the NL East where the Mets continue to pace the division and the defending World Series Champion Braves have won 13 in a row. We’ve got ourselves a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon as the Phillies took Monday’s opener 3-2, but the Marlins bounced back with an 11-9 win yesterday. The teams are now a combined 19-7 in June (Phils 10-2, Marlins 9-5), so I’m laying off the side here. But I think that the total provides plenty of value in this daytime matchup. 

Miami was originally going to start Pablo Lopez in this spot, but he’s dealing with a wrist injury, so it looks like Daniel Castano will instead get the nod Wednesday. This is a significant downgrade for Don Mattingly on the mound. Lopez ranks third in the NL and eighth overall in ERA while Castano was just recalled from the minors earlier in the week. Castano will have to deal with a Phillies lineup that has scored 6+ runs in 8 of its 12 games this month. As a team, the Phillies are batting .300 over the last week. The Over is 16-5 in their last 21 games and a perfect 6-0 in game three of a series.

The Phillies may have only lost twice in their L12 games, but both losses saw them surrender 11+ runs. We saw their bullpen implode in last night’s game, giving up seven runs over the final three innings, including four in the ninth. Getting the start today will be Kyle Gibson, who has a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts and 4.40 for the season. Gibson allowed four runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced the Marlins back in April. Five of his last six starts have seen at least nine total runs scored and three of the last four meetings between these teams have seen at least 13 runs scored. Expect more scoring this afternoon (from both clubs). 8* Over Marlins/Phillies

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): These teams did go Over the total yesterday, but that was all Toronto, who put up 11 runs in a commanding victory. I was cool with that as the Blue Jays -1.5 (run line) was my top MLB play of the day. I know that I touted the offense in yday’s analysis and all that I said certainly rang true. The Jays are now 14-4 their last 18 games and have scored six or more runs in all but one of those wins. Yes, we have two starters that look shaky here. But I’m going with the Under today as I don’t think Toronto will score as many runs as they did Monday. Baltimore is not much of a threat to put a “crooked number” on the board. 

Over the last seven games, Blue Jays’ pitching has allowed fewer than two runs per game. They have three shutouts and two other games where they allowed just a single run. Opponents are batting just .191 and have scored 13 runs total, eight of those coming in one game by KC. Yusei Kikuchi will start Tuesday’s game for Toronto. He was the starter in that game where the Royals scored eight runs and lasted only two-thirds of an inning. But look at May when Kikuchi allowed 2 ER or less in all five starts. Baltimore is only putting up 3.7 runs per game on the road. They’ve had five or fewer hits in five of the last nine games overall. 

Meanwhile, it’s up to Jordan Lyles to try and slow down this Toronto offense. Recent numbers don’t look good for Lyles and, incredibly, the Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs in six of their last seven games vs. the Orioles, going back to last season. But I think Lyles will surprise in this spot. He had a solid start to 2022, even beating the Yankees by holding them to just one run, and he’s given up 3 ER or less in 7 of his 12 starts. The Blue Jays probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either, so that’s three less outs to worry about. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

8* Over A’s/Guardians (11:35 AM ET): A couple streaks came to an end yesterday as the A’s beat the Guardians 10-5. First off, it was Oakland’s first win over Cleveland this year in six tries. Secondly, the A’s also snapped what had been a 10-game losing streak overall. They are in rough shape so far, last in the AL West, and with a 21-40 record they seem likely to stay there. Cleveland is trying to catch Minnesota in the Central (four games back) and having a comparable run differential (to the Twins) seems like a sign that this particular race will tighten. But I’m focused on the total in this early Sunday matchup. 

The Over is 6-2-1 in all Oakland games this month. Only twice has their pitching staff surrendered fewer than five runs. In this series, two of the three games have gone Over and we’ve seen an average of 10.7 runs per game scored. Yesterday was obviously the highest of the bunch as the A’s exploded for 10 runs to snap their long losing streak. Now, for most of that game, it appeared that the A’s were heading to another loss. They trailed 5-2 entering the seventh, but got to the Cleveland bullpen and I’m projecting there to be a “carryover” type effect for Sunday. The Over has hit five of the last six times the A’s have played a fourth game in a series.

Cleveland will start Cal Quantrill in this game. He has decent numbers, but is likely to regress moving forward according to a number of advanced metrics (such as xwOBA, xBA and xSLG). There have been a total of 20 runs scored in Quantrill’s previous two outings. Oakland is going with Cole Irvin, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.348 WHIP on the road this season. Some of the same advanced metrics also predict Irvin is likely to continue to struggle moving forward, and the A’s bullpen has been one of the worst in all of baseball this season. The Over is 4-1-1 in Cleveland’s last six home games vs. a lefty starter. 8* Over A’s/Guardians

10* Under Pirates/Braves (4:10 ET): These teams continue to trend in opposite directions as the Braves have now won nine in a row while the Pirates have dropped four in a row. Atlanta has needed to stay hot as division rival Philadelphia has won eight in a row and the battle for second in the NL East is really starting to heat up. As for the Pirates, I have them rated as one of the worst teams in all of baseball right now with a -83 run differential. It seems quite fortunate that they are ahead of both the Cubs and Reds in the NL Central. Looking ahead, the rest of this series should go Atlanta’s way.

But the money line is obviously too high to play the Braves on Saturday, and I’m a little “gun-shy” about forecasting a win by more than one run. So let’s look at the total. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in six consecutive games and didn’t cross the plate until the eighth inning yesterday. So this should be a solid outing from the Braves’ Charlie Morton, who aims to keep the string of solid Braves’ pitching performances alive. Six times in the nine game win streak, Atlanta has allowed two runs or less. Morton has struggled a bit recently (allowing 4 ER in three consecutive starts), but also has much better numbers at home this year. 

Pittsburgh is going with Zach Thompson and he will at least give the team a “fighting chance” on Sunday. That’s because Thompson has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. He threw five shutout innings against Arizona on Sunday and got the win as the Pirates eventually prevailed 3-0. But one of Thompson’s big issues is that he doesn’t get much run support as the team has failed to score more than three runs in 8 of his 10 starts overall. The good news though is Atlanta is curiously only averaging 3.5 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. Look for another low-scoring ballgame at Truist Park today. 10* Under Pirates/Braves

10* Over D’backs/Phillies (7:05 ET): This weekend finds the surging Phillies hosting a D’backs team that’s bounced back in recent days. The Phillies have won seven in a row and swept two series since dumping former manager Joe Girardi. They just went to Milwaukee and beat the Brewers three times, which is not easy to do. As for Arizona, they were on a four-game losing streak before beating Cincinnati 7-0 on Wednesday. Then the D’backs won again Thursday afternoon, 5-4, in come from behind fashion. At least eight runs have been scored in 14 of Philly’s last 16 games while the same holds true in 16 of Arizona’s past 24 games. I’m on the Over here.

The Phils have scored six or more runs themselves in all but one of the games during their current win streak. They should continue to find success at the plate here vs. Zac Gallen, who has struggled a bit as of late with a 5.29 ERA and 1.529 his L3 starts. Now most of that is one bad start against the Royals on 5/24, but he has still allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last 17 IP. Gallen is off his 1st loss (to Pittsburgh!) and behind him is one of baseball’s worst bullpen. Arizona relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season.

Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber here for the home team. He too has an ERA north of 5.00 over his L3 starts (5.65) with a WHIP of 1.396. Lasting only 3 ⅓ innings, Gibson gave up five runs his last time out, a game the Phillies were very fortunate to win (came back from 6-2 deficit to win 9-7 in extra innings). Four of Gibson’s last five starts have seen at least nine total runs scored. The last time Arizona came to Philly (last August), the Phillies scored seven runs in all four games. They’ve averaged 7.0 rpg during this win streak and the Over has hit six straight times when the team is a home favorite. 10* Over D’backs/Phillies

10* Under Dodgers/White Sox (2:10 ET): This series has seen each team win a game in low-scoring fashion. It was the White Sox in a 4-0 shutout on Tuesday, followed by a 4-1 Dodgers’ win last night. Given the pitching matchup on tap this afternoon, and the scarcity of runs we’ve seen in those L2 games, I think a third straight Under is in the cards here. There have been eight or fewer runs scored in 7 of the Dodgers’ last 11 games. For the White Sox, there have been eight or fewer runs scored in 13 of the last 23 games. 

The Dodgers are only allowing 2.6 runs per game on the road, which is pretty incredible. Don’t look for them to give up very many today with Tyler Anderson starting. Anderson is 6-0 in his eight starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. On the road, his numbers are even better (1.52, 0.972) and his L3 starts (all wins) have seen him not give up a single run in 20 innings! He’s allowed only 13 hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Set aside a poor outing vs. Philadelphia on 5/12 (where Anderson allowed seven runs) and he’s given up just seven runs in seven starts! 

Dylan Cease will go for Chicago and he is capable of outdueling Anderson. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Anderson’s, due to having two subpar outings, but Cease has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his 11 starts. He hasn’t allowed any earned runs in his L2 starts (three unearned) and three of his last four. Should be noted that the Dodgers have topped four runs just twice in their last 11 games and only once in the last eight. 10* Under Dodgers/White Sox

9* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): Two of the dregs of baseball meet over the next two days at PNC Park with the Pirates hosting the Tigers. Neither team is in last place, but both are in the bottom four in run differential (overall in MLB) and thus the respective futures look rather bleak on each end. The fact the Bucs are slight underdogs at home (on the ML) is something they should take as an insult, especially after winning five of their last six games. Detroit was shutout twice over the weekend by the Yankees, then lost 5-4 in 10 innings on Sunday. Still I couldn’t possibly back the Bucs. 

If you’re looking for positives, then check out this pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers and Jose Quintana goes for the Pirates. I’m anticipating a low-scoring game here with Skubal coming in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP (10 starts) and Quintana having a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP (10 starts). Skubal has really been lights out of late, allowing zero runs in four of his previous five outings. Last time out, he held Minnesota scoreless for seven innings and gave up just two hits. That makes it six different times this season that Skubal hasn’t allowed a run. Quintana has allowed 2 ER or less in eight straight starts! 

The two starting pitchers aren’t the only reason this total is so low. These are two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball as well. Detroit is averaging just 2.2 runs per game on the road while hitting .198! They’ve had seven straight games of single-digit hits. Pittsburgh isn’t much better with a .226 average on the year and they have the lowest average of runs scored per game in the entire National League. Even though the Pirates are coming off B2B wins, they still only managed five runs total in the two games. The Under is 12-5-3 in their last 20 games overall. 9* Under Tigers/Pirates

10* Over Blue Jays/Royals (8:10 ET): Toronto has lost only twice over its last 11 games. Both setbacks came over the weekend, at home, against Minnesota. But one streak still alive is eight consecutive games going Over the total. The Jays’ offense has certainly come alive, scoring six or more runs in all but one of those eight contests. But the Twins were able to score eight runs yesterday and nine on Friday. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of the Jays’ L8 games and I think the streak continues here as they head to Kansas City to face the last place Royals. Take the Over. 

Things are NOT going well in KC as I’ve got this team rated dead last in the power ratings. They have the fewest wins (17) and worst run differential (-81) in all of baseball. After a rare win on Saturday (6-0 over Houston), the Royals immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling 7-4 to the Astros yesterday. That marked the 10th time in 13 games that KC pitching allowed seven or more runs. So this seems to be an ideal matchup for a Toronto lineup that is swinging the bats well. The Royals have allowed the most runs in the American League by a fairly wide margin.

David Lynch is Monday’s starter for the home side.He’s off an outing where he allowed six runs in Cleveland and has a 8.31 ERA/2.154 WHIP his L3 starts. Tough to see him doing well in this spot and the Royals’ bullpen also happens to be very lousy. Toronto will counter with Ross Stripling, who figures to serve as more of an “opener” as he’s only getting the nod here due to the injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Stripling has made just five starts this year and lasted four innings in four of them. He has a 7.87 ERA on the road (1.50 WHIP) and let it be known the Royals should have scored more runs on Sunday, but left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Over Blue Jays/Royals

8* Over Twins/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): Minnesota came in and pulled off a surprising win last night, 9-3 as +210 underdogs. That ended Toronto’s eight-game win streak (which had been a season-high) and it was also the first time in six games where the Jays failed to score at least six runs. Out for revenge today, you’ve got to figure the home team will swing the bats well, but it turns out that I don’t have faith in EITHER starting pitcher Saturday afternoon. This promises to be another slugfest. Take the Over. 

The Twins, even though they dropped four of five in Detroit earlier this week, continue to lead the AL Central with a 31-23 record. They have some key pieces out of the lineup, but you wouldn’t have known watching yesterday as they broke out for nine runs and 12 hits. They roughed up Yusei Kikuchi and should also find success against Toronto’s starter for Saturday, Jose Berrios, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Berrios, who spent six seasons with Minnesota, has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Last time out, he made it only 2 ⅓ innings and gave up six runs. 

Toronto is on a six-game Over streak coming into today and, save for yesterday, you can credit their offense for that. They’ve averaged 6.9 runs per game over the last week. Dylan Bundy will start for the Twins and he figures to struggle. Bundy has an 0-5 TSR his L3 starts and has been particularly poor on the road, turning in a 7.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He’s allowed a homer in four of his last five outings. Neither bullpen is all that good in this matchup, by the way. 8* Over Twins/Blue Jays

10* Over Tigers/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees appear to be in peak form again, winning seven of their last nine including a three-game sweep of the Angels to start the week. In that sweep, the Yanks’ pitching staff allowed just one run each game and only twice have they allowed more than three runs in a game during their 7-2 run. The team has to feel good about the trend continuing here as they’ll send Gerrit Cole out to face a Tigers’ lineup that is producing only 2.3 runs per game on the road this season. But with the home team sure to do most of the “heavy lifting,” I’m looking for a “surprise” Over in tonight’s series opener. 

The Yankees come into tonight averaging 4.6 runs per game, both at home and overall. They’ve scored the eighth most runs in all of MLB and figure to add plenty more to the total tonight facing Elvin Rodriguez, who will be making just his third career start (and fourth appearance) for the Tigers. In his first start, Rodriguez gave up a grand slam. His second outing, Sunday against the Guardians, went a lot smoother. But this is a far more talented lineup he’s facing today. Matt Carpenter has hit three home runs in the last week while Gleyber Torres homered again yesterday, giving him more this season than he had in all of 2021! 

If there’s ANY reason for Detroit to be optimistic here, it’s because of the fact NY played a doubleheader yesterday. That means a tired Yankees’ bullpen could be prone to giving up a few more runs than usual. Cole had his worst start of the season against the Tigers, lasting only 1 ⅔ innings on a cold night. He’s coming off B2B games with double digit strikeouts, but also allowed five runs in one of them. The Tigers, who surprisingly took four of five from Minnesota, are due for SOME offensive increase moving forward. The Over has hit in each of the Yankees last seven series openers. 10* Over Tigers/Yankees

10* Over Nationals/Reds (6:40 ET): Things have stabilized in Cincinnati following a disastrous 3-22 start to the season. The team is actually 12-10 over its L22 games and the offense has been a real bright spot, now averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game at home this year. Only Colorado, which has the obvious benefit of Coors Field, scores more at home. But unfortunately for the Reds, their pitching still stinks. You’re talking about a staff that is allowing 5.7 rpg at home. Add it all up and Reds’ home games are now averaging an absurd 11.6 rpg! That makes this total (vs. a Washington team that also has bad pitching) too low. 

So the Nationals’ staff is one of two in all of baseball that gives up more runs per game than the Reds. (Colorado gives up the most). The team had gone Over in four straight games before yday’s 5-0 loss to the Mets, which was actually the second game in a row the Nats’ offense got blanked. Starting today will be Joan Adon, who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.669 WHIP in 10 starts, nine of which have seen Washington lose. Adon is off probably his best start (at home vs. Colorado), but can’t be trusted here against a Reds lineup that typically puts up a ton of runs at home and is batting a collective .280 its L7 games overall. Plus, the Washington bullpen stinks. 

Having been shutout in B2B games, there’s not much expectation for the Nationals’ offense today, but considering how many runs visiting teams have scored so far this season at Great American Ballpark, I look for the Nats to put more than a few on the board. The unproven Graham Ashcraft will get the starting nod here for the Reds. Ashcraft only has two starts under his belt and isn’t a big strikeout guy. Washington is 6th in the NL in OBP, respectable, and the Over is 14-3-2 in the Reds’ last 18 home games when they face a right-handed starter. 10* Over Nationals/Reds

9* Under Royals/Guardians (1:10 ET): Kansas City’s pitching staff has now given up seven or more runs in eight of the last ten games, including both in the series. With numbers like that, it’s really no surprise that KC comes into Wednesday with the fewest number of wins (16) in all of MLB. I’ve got the Pirates rated lower, but that’s it. This afternoon, the Royals hope to avoid getting swept in Cleveland. I’m in no way confident that they will, but the better bet is that this AL Central matchup will be low-scoring. Despite the Royals’ recent pitching woes, I’m on the Under. 

The O/U line was higher for Monday’s series opener, so that game (7-3 Guardians’ win) went Under. But after yesterday’s 8-3 result, the Royals are now 10-2 Over their L12 games. Again, most of that has to do with the pitching, which has allowed more runs that anyone in the American League. The bullpen is coming off a horrible month, but I’m expecting a strong start here from Brad Keller, who has a 3.95 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. He was shelled his last time out, but earlier in the season, Keller had his best start of ‘22 when he tossed six shutout innings vs. Cleveland (allowed just two hits).

The Guardians counter with Konnor Pilkington, who hasn’t been exactly “dominant” in either of his two previous starts. Yet to make it through four innings, Pilkington will likely rely on his bullpen, which has been outstanding thus far. Another positive is that Pilkington is a lefty and KC is scoring only 3.7 runs per game when facing a southpaw starter. The Royals are also currently dealing with a lot of injuries to their lineup. Considering that, and the fact the KC pitching HAS to improve (can’t get any worse!), I’m looking for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. Keller has 1.71 ERA in eight career starts vs. Cleveland and a 1.88 ERA here at Progressive Field. 9* Under Royals/Guardians 

10* Over Giants/Phillies (4:10 ET): The Phillies continue to underperform as they were swept over the weekend by the Mets, leaving them six games below .500 despite still having a (slightly) positive run differential. The Phils have now dropped 8 of 11 overall and things get no easier this week with a visit from the Giants. I’ve said before that there is just no way the Giants will be as profitable as they were last year to bet on, and sure enough they’re down 3.3 units despite their winning overall record (25-21). The way I see this one going is lots of runs, from both clubs. Take the Over. 

The Giants are one of only three teams to be averaging 5.0 runs per game (Dodgers & Mets are the others). I like their chances today against Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.28 ERA and 1.743 WHIP his L3 starts. Gibson has been better since being roughed up for six runs by the Dodgers on 5/13, but he’s made it through six full innings just once in his last six starts. As we saw last night, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a problem this season, a reason six of their last seven games have gone Over the total. Only one of those games saw fewer than nine total runs scored. All three games vs. the Mets went Over. 

Phillies’ home games have been atypically low scoring thus far (7.4 rpg), but that should start to change. The Giants’ last seven games have been even higher scoring than the Phillies. There’s been an average of 12.1 rpg scored in SF contests over the last week and three times their pitching staff has given up 10+ runs during that stretch. Logan Webb is the starter Monday. Like Gibson, Webb struggles a bit more when facing lefties. The Over has hit in six of the Giants’ last seven series openers and seven straight vs. the NL East. It’s 13-5 their L18 games overall. 10* Over Giants/Phillies

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. 

It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. 

 Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer.

Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests.

The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds

10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in baseball right now, are on fire at the plate. They’ve put up an average of nearly seven runs per game (themselves) over the last week and were 10-1 winners in Monday’s series opener here in the Nation’s Capital. Unsurprisingly, LA is a big moneyline favorite again tonight with Walker Buehler on the mound. I expect their string of high-scoring efforts to continue against former teammate Josiah Gray, but Buehler will likely give up some runs too and that makes the Over the right call in this one.

Buehler’s strikeout rate is down this season and he has a 4.24 ERA/1.412 WHIP over his L3 starts. Now that’s mostly due to him giving up five runs in five innings to the Phillies, what ended up being a wild 12-10 game. But Buehler has gone just five innings in four of his last six starts, including three of the last four. On the surface, Washington’s offensive numbers at home look pretty bad (just 2.7 rpg!) but I’d look for them to improve, Juan Soto specifically as he currently is at a career-low in both batting average and OPS. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around at the plate. The Nats have 36 hits in their L4 games, so the fact they’ve scored 1 run or less in three of them seems a bit unlucky to me. 

But you can count on the Dodgers to do most of the scoring in this game. They come in having scored a league-high 131 runs this month (6.2 per game) and the Nationals’ pitching staff happens to have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball. Gray, who was sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer trade, has a 6.43 ERA and 1.5571 WHIP at home and he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his eight starts overall. I like this total as we’re still below the key number of 9 and I expect just as many total runs scored as we saw yesterday. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals

9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! 

Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series.

Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros

9* Under White Sox/Royals (2:10 ET): So we’ve got two starting pitchers with pretty ugly numbers in this series finale, but the way the previous four games have gone, I’m not expecting many runs here. Not only have the White Sox only scored a grand total of 11 runs so far against KC pitching, there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 16 of their last 20 games with the Under going 14-5-1. Chicago has scored only six runs total its last three games and is facing an opponent that averages only 2.6 rpg at home. Take the Under in this divisional matchup. 

The Under is 12-6-1 in Royals’ home games this season, including 3-0-1 in this series. There have been eight total runs scored in two of the four games and just three total in the other two. As alluded to above, I think we’re getting an inflated number here because of the two starting pitchers, neither of whom have very good numbers on the season. But Kansas City’s Carlos Hernandez is 3-0 all-time vs. Chicago with a 2.70 ERA. Hernandez has been rocked in B2B starts, but note the last one was at Coors Field. His final three starts of April all saw him allow 3 ER or less. The White Sox are hitting only .218 in games where they face a left-handed starter. 

Vince Velaquez was originally going to start yesterday’s game for Chicago, but he was bumped back (in favor of Lucas Giolito) and I think the extra day of rest will work in his favor. As mentioned earlier, Kansas City has simply not been scoring much at home. Only Oakland has averaged fewer runs at home this season. Velasquez, like Hernandez, did get rocked his last time out. But that came against the Yankees. In the two starts prior, Velasquez had allowed a total of only one run in 10 ⅔ innings. He allowed more HRs (3) last time out than he did in his previous five starts combined (2). A bounce back is in order today. 9* Under White Sox/Royals

9* Under Yankees/Orioles (12:35 ET): Baltimore hopes to avoid what would be a four-game sweep here, at home, but that’s easier said than done as they’re up against a Yankees team that is 23-4 its last 27 games and off to one of the best starts in franchise history. Not only have the Orioles lost six straight times to the Yankees, they’ve also lost six in a row overall. Yesterday’s game, a 3-2 Yanks’ win, was the lowest scoring of this series and I figure we’re in store for another one like that here as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound Thursday afternoon. Take the Under. 

This will be the third time this season that NY’s Jordan Montgomery is facing Baltimore. Montgomery may not have a win against the O’s, or any one else for that matter, but he does have a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP, so he’s probably “due.” The two starts vs. Baltimore have seen Montgomery yield just two runs and seven hits in 10 ⅔ IP. Both games stayed Under. Incredibly, all seven of Montgomery’s starts have stayed Under this year as he’s the one pitcher the Yanks can’t seem to score for. In six of the seven games, they’ve scored three runs or less. But the O’s should continue their struggles vs. lefties as the Yanks are allowing just 2.9 rpg in day games (opponents hitting .216). 

Bruce Zimmerman has inarguably been Baltimore’s best starter in 2022. He checks in with a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and hopes the Yanks’ struggles to support Montgomery continue. They should as Zimmerman has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. Three times he hasn’t allowed ANY earned runs and two of those were against the Yankees! Save for Aaron Judge, most of the NY lineup hasn’t had much success against Zimmerman, or lefties in general, at least as of late. The Under is now 25-11-2 in all Orioles’ games this season, which includes 13-1-1 when they are up against a LH starter. This promises to be a good ol’ fashioned pitchers’ duel. 9* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Over D’backs/Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers hit a bit of a “rough patch” there “for a second,” at one point losing four in a row and five of six. But they’ve clearly recovered, spurred on by a late rally against the Phillies on Sunday (I was on Dodger Blue that day) and now they’ve taken three straight from the division rival D’backs. They go for the series sweep this afternoon with Walker Buehler on the mound and there’s probably little doubt in anyone’s mind as to which side will win this matinee. But I don’t think there’s much value in backing LA in this spot, even on the run line. Instead, let’s turn to the total. 

Los Angeles is my #1 rated team in all of baseball right now as they are +81 in run differential. Only one other team is above +50 and that’s the Yankees (+74). No team has scored more runs this season than have the Dodgers (198) and over the L7 games they’ve averaged a whopping 7.0 runs. At home, they are averaging 5.9 rpg for the season. So the D’backs starter, Zach Davies, figures to find himself in the “deep water” here, especially with a 5.12 FIP on the road. Davies has actually pitched pretty well in 2022, but has not gone longer than five innings in any of his three road outings. 

All three games in this series have gone Over. In yesterday’s doubleheader, Arizona jumped out to leads of 3-0 and 2-0, but was obviously unable to hold either time. Still them scoring nine runs Tuesday is a positive sign for this play as is their ability to score on the Dodgers’ starters. Buehler is notoriously tough, but does have a 4.35 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at home through four starts. Those numbers coupled with a Dodgers’ bullpen that has been subpar of late lead me to believe the road team is going to score some runs here as well. Over the L7 games, the Dodgers are allowing an average of 6.6 runs! 10* Over D’backs/Dodgers

10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. 

With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. 

It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (6:40 ET): The ML odds have shot up for this series opener, which I suppose makes sense given the Nationals’ general ineptitude (12-24 record) and the fact they’ve already been swept once by the Marlins this season. But the only other time Miami was this large of a ML favorite in 2022, they lost. Plus the Fish aren’t exactly flashing fine form at the moment. They’ve dropped 11 of 14 overall here in May. What I’ve got my eyes on here is the total, which is also on the move. 

Washington road games have averaged 11.3 runs so far this season. That’s easily the most in all of baseball. There were three games in Colorado, in case you were wondering. What’s unique about the average is that the Nats are scoring the most runs per game in all of MLB, away from home. They are also giving up the fourth most. It’s unsustainable, at least to this degree. Over the team’s last four games, all of which were at home, they scored 1 run or less three times. I think we’re about to see that meager offense start to “travel.” 

Sandy Alcantara is off a very sharp outing where he held Arizona to just one run on two hits over 7 IP. That game did end up going Over, but it was an 11-3 Miami win and they scored eight of those runs in the top of the ninth (I had Miami!). Alcantara also held Washington to just one run over six innings back on 4/29. Overall, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all but one start this season. The Marlins’ offense has largely been “feast or famine” this year and has scored three times or less in 7 of the last 10 games. That’s good news for Washington starter Aaron Sanchez, who had a 0.93 ERA in two starts vs. Miami last year. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

10* Over Mariners/Mets (1:40 ET): The Mets haven’t lost a series all year and will look to extend their streak to 10-0-1 here on Sunday. (They split a four-game series with Atlanta earlier this month, but that’s the only of their 10 previous series they didn’t win). Now they almost blew having an opportunity to win this series with Seattle as Saturday saw the Mets blow a four-run lead in the latter innings. But third-string catcher Patrick Mazeika won it in the bottom of the seventh with a tiebreaker home run. The Mets now have the best record in the National League (23-12) and are second in the overall standings, trailing only the Yankees.

Seattle won the first game of this series, 2-1 on Friday. They were huge +215 ML underdogs, facing Max Scherzer. But sloppy play in the field (three errors) cost them yesterday plus they left the bases loaded in the first inning. The Mariners, who I expected to regress here in 2022, have now dropped 13 of their last 17 games. They’ll send Robbie Ray to the bump today and he has struggled so far, producing a 4.22 ERA. Ray did have a season-high 10 K’s his last start, but before that, strikeouts were down and walks were up compared to last season. Ray also has a 1.473 WHIP on the road. 

The Mets, now 11-1 after a loss this season, counter with Carlos Carrasco. His numbers, especially at home (0.87 ERA, 0.822 WHIP), have been very good. But don't be surprised if he struggles a bit here. Carrasco also doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and he was rocked earlier this year by St. Louis. He has followed that up with B2B quality starts, including eight shutout innings vs. Atlanta. But I expect Carrasco’s numbers to go up and this looks like a really low total to jump on. The Over is 15-3 in the Mariners’ last 18 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Mariners/Mets

9* Under Blue Rays/Rays (6:10 ET): I think we’ve got a great value on the total in today’s Blue Jays-Rays matchup. Both teams are staring up at the Yankees in the AL East and figure to do so the rest of the way. Right now, not just the AL East, but the entire American League seems wide open as only five teams have positive run differentials and only six have winning records. Interestingly, these are two of the six, but neither has a positive run differential. Despite what, on paper, looks to be an “ugly” starting pitching matchup, I say to look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated here. 

It was 5-2 in the Rays’ favor last night. That was an Over though based on the closing number of 6.5. Six of Toronto’s last seven games have gone Over, even though they are batting a collective .216 during that stretch. The Rays have been even weaker at the plate over that stretch, hitting .212. Tampa Bay has seen three of its last four games go Over, but that includes giving up a ton of runs in two games vs. the Angels, who they are no longer facing. This being a divisional matchup, there’s more familiarity between the two clubs and that typically leads to lower-scoring games. It’s been pretty rare to see a total of 8.0 or higher for either of these two teams recently. 

Now a big reason for the inflated total is the two starting pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu was not good in either of his first two starts, giving up 11 runs in 7 ⅓ innings. But he hasn’t pitched in a month (was dealing with forearm inflammation). I’m looking for a far better outing here as Ryu has a 2.70 ERA in four previous trips to the mound vs. TB. Ryan Yarbrough had a bad first start of 2022 for the Rays, but then tossed five shutout innings vs. Seattle in his second (and most recent) start. He is 8-2 (with a 3.23 ERA) all-time vs. Toronto. The Under is 8-1-3 the L11 meetings between these two, including 7-1-1 here at Tropicana Field. 9* Under Blue Jays/Rays

10* Over Tigers/Orioles (4:10 ET): These are two of the perennial “also-rans” in the American League, but the Orioles aren’t half-bad in 2022. Well, they’re still 14-19 overall and did just lose last night 4-2 to the Tigers. But we’re talking about a ballclub that has been the worst in baseball over the last several seasons, losing 108+ games each of the L3 years that there have been 162 games played. Right now, it is Detroit that owns the worst record in the AL (10-23) even after Friday’s victory. 

I expect more runs to be scored in Saturday’s matinee. While the starting pitching matchup seems decent, from both teams' perspective, neither team is shy about giving up runs. Baltimore allows 5.2 runs per game on the road, so that alone makes this total seem VERY low. Detroit is not exactly a force offensively, but they do score more at home than they do on the road. They will face Bruce Zimmerman, who has been much improved for the O’s this season, with a 1.78 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. But I’m not at all convinced that will continue. Baltimore’s bullpen is also not very good. 

The Tigers turn to Michael Pineda as their Saturday starter. Like Zimmerman, Pineda is off to a better than expected start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. All four of his starts have gone Under, but in two of them he received literally no run support (as in the Tigers were shutout). I don’t see that being the case here and Pineda did have a starter earlier this year where he allowed three home runs. 10* Over Tigers/Orioles

9* Over Guardians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and won’t have skipper Terry Francona on the bench Friday, nor most of the coaching staff. Pitching coach Carl Willis will manage the team this weekend. I was set to fade the Guardians on Wednesday when their game was postponed. That was due to the fact Aaron Civale was going to start. Civale will instead start tonight’s series opener vs. the Twins, who have been struggling at the plate including two shutout losses in their last three games. But Civale’s numbers indicate this is a spot where Minnesota can get back on track - at least offensively. 

Civale has a 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. All five of his starts have gone Over with the opposition combining to score 38 runs. That’s an average of more than 7.0 per game. Lately, things have gotten even worse for Civale as he has an 11.37 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his L3 starts. Most of his struggles have been on the road where he has a 12.20 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in three outings. Yes, the Twins did only muster three totals runs in their last series and I cashed an Under bet on them yesterday. But they are no longer facing the Astros’ pitching staff. Cleveland is bottom six right now in runs allowed per game. 

But the surprising thing about the Guardians is that they are tied for fifth for most runs scored per game. Them and the woeful Reds, who have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball, are the only two teams to have seen 60% or more of their games go Over the total thus far. Here the Guardians’ lineup will face Sonny Gray, whose numbers look okay until you realize he’s only pitched 10 ⅓ innings. His walk rate is a concern and I expect him to struggle this evening. That will be a problem for the Twins as their bullpen is taxed right now. 9* Over Guardians/Twins

10* Under Brewers/Marlins (6:40 ET): We have two tremendous starting pitchers on the mound for this series opener between the Brewers and Marlins. The Brewers’ Corbin Burnes has seen five of his six starts stay Under the total (one push), due in no small part to the fact he is sporting a 1.86 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. For the Marlins, they’ve got Pablo Lopez, who has a 1.25 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. So, in other words, do not expect either team to come close to putting up the same number of runs they scored in their last game. 

Milwaukee just got done facing Cincinnati, which should have been an easy series, but instead they dropped two of three games in the Queen City. Shockingly, the Brewers’ staff allowed 28 runs in those three games including 14 in a wild loss on Wednesday. Normally, when you score 11 times against the Reds, that should be an automatic win. But alas, it was not for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. Note that while Miami also scored 11 runs on Weds (and I cashed them in a ML victory), eight of those came in the top of the ninth. Prior to that inning, the Marlins were on pace to score three runs or less for the sixth time in seven games.

Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season, in case you forgot. It would certainly appear as if he’s going to be in contention for that award again in 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts while never allowing more than 2 ER. And there have been six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five contests. The Marlins have five regulars in their everyday lineup hitting under .220. Doesn’t sound optimal when facing Burnes. But Miami’s saving grace here could be Lopez, whose ERA is the lowest right now in the NL He’s allowed no runs in four of his last five starts and just went eight innings his last time out. The Brewers will be without DH McCutchen. 10* Under Brewers/Marlins

9* Under Astros/Twins (3:10 ET): Houston is blistering hot right now, having won its last eight games. Now there’s a small chance that win streak could be over by the time this game gets underway. That’s due to the fact that yday’s game here in Minnesota was suspended (in the 4th inning) due to rain. Now it’s more likely that the Astros will be on a nine-game win streak when we get to the first pitch here as they are up 5-1 in the suspended game. Regardless of the result of the resumed game today, I like the Under here as the ‘Stros have allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games and 13 of the last 14! 

There’s a good chance that streak extends another game as well, considering the Twins have only one run on the board in the game that will be completed beforehand. Starting the “second” game for Houston will be Luis Garcia, who has certainly contributed to his team’s amazing pitching run by delivering B2B quality starts. Last time out, Garcia allowed only two runs (one unearned) and two hits over seven innings. He has a 1.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Twins’ lineup that is still without Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton only returned yesterday (from a hip injury) and was 0 for 2 with a strikeout. 

Truly incredible is that the Houston pitching staff has posted four shutouts in the last eight games and has given up only eight runs total! So Minnesota is going to need a strong outing here and I think they get it from Josh Winder, who has yet to allow an earned run. A rookie that the Astros have never seen before, Winder’s first two career starts have seen him allow only five hits in 12 IP. Minnesota is only allowing 2.8 rpg at home thus far and opponents are batting just .200. It’s not like Houston has been scoring a ton during its win streak; only once have they topped five runs and they’ve scored three or less in 6 of their L10 games. Look for a low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Astros/Twins

9* Over Mets/Nationals (1:05 ET): After going Under each of their L3 head to head meetings, the Mets & Nationals finally combined to go Over last night. The final score was 8-3 (Nats won) and interestingly enough all 11 runs were scored in the first two innings. We may not get that kind of explosive start at the plate this afternoon, but there are two struggling starters on the mound and by the end of the game, I expect the Over to hit again. 

Taijuan Walker is the Mets starter and he comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. What is crazy is that all three starts have come against the Phillies! Walker was really roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just four innings of work. He allowed two home runs as well. Walker had previously allowed no runs this year, but those first two starts vs. the Phillies had spanned only seven innings. I know the Washington lineup had struggled at home so far, but yesterday was a positive sign and they are hitting righties well in the month of May. Walker has a 5.24 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Nats. The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after heavy usage yesterday (starter Megill lasted only 1 ⅓ innings. 

The Mets need a win today to avoid what would be their first series loss of 2022. Yesterday’s defeat marked just the third time they lost a game by 5+ runs. The offense should do better here against Joan Adon, who has really struggled in his six starts this year. Adon has a 6.99 ERA and 1.659 WHIP this season and he’s 0-3 w/ a 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 starts. The Mets had their chances to score after the 1st inning yday, but went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Adon’s 1st start of 2022 came against the Mets and he allowed four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 9* Over Mets/Nationals

8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians (6:10 ET): Only Cincinnati (with its horrible pitching) has seen more games go Over this season than has Cleveland, who split a doubleheader here at home with San Diego yesterday. Both games were decided by one run, the first being a 5-4 loss while second being a 6-5 come from behind win. It’s not a great spot for the Guardians here as they face an immediate turnaround with the Blue Jays coming to town. But the starting pitcher Toronto is sending out, Jose Berrios, has one of the more fortunate 5-0 team start records in recent memory as his ERA and WHIP are 4.13 and 1.583. 

Honestly, if it weren’t for the situation of being off a doubleheader and having Aaron Civale starting tonight, I would have considered Cleveland at plus money in this series opener. But Civale has been horrific to this point with a 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP after four outings. It’s actually rather shocking that the team has won twice with him on the mound. One of those was last time out, 9-8 over Oakland. For the second straight start, Civale gave up six runs in four innings or less. He has yet to pitch longer than four innings in any start and opponents are batting a blistering .349 against him. 

With the expectation that both starting pitchers are going to struggle in this matchup, I’m taking the Over. Not surprisingly, all four Civale starts this season have gone Over. Berrios’ numbers are somewhat skewed by his first start (lasted only one-third of an inning and gave up four runs), but he’s very lucky to have the 5-0 TSR and certainly should have allowed more runs to this point. Toronto was thought to have one of the better offenses coming into 2022, but surprisingly Cleveland is scoring more than them so far. The Over is 4-0 the L4 Guardians’ home games where they have been the ‘dog. 8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians

10* Under Reds/Brewers (1:40 ET): The Cincinnati Reds are setting baseball back to the 1890s. Last night’s horrific 18-4 defeat (at the hands of Milwaukee) leaves them at 3-21 on the year with a -82 run differential. They’ve lost eight straight and 19 of 20. This is the unquestioned worst team in all of baseball this year. Unfortunately for the Reds, Thursday afternoon has them again facing the Brewers, who have been cleaning up against the dregs of the NL Central as of late. But I look for today’s game to be a lot lower scoring than yesterday and most recent Reds’ games. Take the Under here. 

If you’ve been paying any attention to baseball this season, then you know there were an abundance of Unders early on. Only two teams have gone Over in more than 55% of their games and leading the charge is Cincinnati at 14-9-1. Seven of their last eight games have seen nine or more total runs scored. But I think this one is going to be different. Part of that is the Reds are dead last in the National League at 3.1 runs per game. They are even worse on the road where they are scoring just 2.7 rpg with a collective .186 average. Figuring that Milwaukee wins again here, they will only have to come up to bat eight times in this game. 

Cincinnati’s woeful offensive numbers figure not to get any better after today as they’ll be facing Adrian Houser, who is one of several Milwaukee starters off to a strong start in 2022. Houser has been especially dominant in his two previous home starts (0.77 ERA, 1.028 WHIP), allowing just one run in 11 ⅔ IP. Brewers’ pitching has allowed only 14 runs to score over the L7 games. Now while the Brew Crew offense did explode for 18 runs last night, such a performance is obviously atypical, especially from them. The team is still hitting only .228 on the year. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is a bit better than his numbers show. 10* Under Reds/Brewers

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): I had thought the Halos were going to come in and take Tuesday’s series opener, but as it turns out, that assessment was a “day early.” After losing 4-0 on Tuesday, Los Angeles bounced back with a 10-5 win last night. But the number of runs scored in Wednesday’s game was a little bit misleading. The Angels got 10 runs off just eight hits and the game went to extra innings. It was 4-4 at the end of nine, but the visitors quickly put things to bed with two HRs in the 10th. Let’s not forget LA had been shutout in three of its previous four games. I like the Under this afternoon. 

A major reason I like the Under here is the starting pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani will go for the Angels, and aside from one bad start (when I faded him 4/14 vs. Texas), he’s been great. You’re talking a 30-5 KW ratio and he’s allowed just two runs and six hits total in his L2 starts. Ohtani was especially dominant when he last started on the road, holding Houston to just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also had 12 strikeouts that day. Ohtani wasn’t quite as dominant last week vs. Cleveland, but still allowed only two runs and five hits. Here he should have little trouble with a Boston lineup that is scoring just 3.3 rpg vs. right-handed starters. 

Prior to two of their last three games going Over (I cashed the Over in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday), the Red Sox had seen the Under go 10-1-1 over a 12-game stretch. They will send veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the bump today. Hill can’t be counted on to go very long, but he has tossed four scoreless in each of his L2 outings. Last time out, he allowed just one hit and didn’t walk anyone either. Hill has allowed only two home runs this season and he’s not being hit particularly hard. The Boston bullpen is solid, which is key as well. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times the Angels scored 5+ runs their previous game. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox

9* Under Phillies/Mets (7:05 ET): There’s been a scarcity of runs in this series with the Phillies getting no-hit on Friday, but then also winning 4-1 on Saturday. That latter result was great for me as I had the road team as my 10* Game of the Month, the capper on a stupendous month overall. Now I look to start May by playing the total and I don’t know how you can’t look to the Under here. Max Scherzer is going tonight for the Mets and he’s not only 3-0 in his four starts (4-0 TSR), but has a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. At home this season, the Mets are allowing just 2.4 runs per game and a .161 batting average. 

Scherzer is coming off back to back dominant performances where he went seven innings (both times) and allowed just one run on three hits combined. He had 20 strikeouts as well. Those were wins over the Giants and Cardinals. Scherzer has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this year and the lone HR surrendered came in his first start. It’s difficult for me to see the Phillies, who have collected just 10 hits over the L3 games, doing much against Scherzer as he has not lost in his last 23 starts! In 25 career starts vs. the Phillies, Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He has 201 strikeouts in 158 ⅓ innings. 

Like the Phils, the Mets have scored a total of just four runs in this series. While last night’s result was disappointing for them, especially coming off the no-hitter Friday, there’s no need to sweat as the Mets still have the highest win percentage in the National League. Tonight, they are facing Zach Eflin, who has somewhat struggled so far, but he was much better his last time out when he gave up just one run on two hits against Colorado. Eflin’s road numbers are skewed by the fact he also faced the Rockies at Coors Field. Eflin had another start this year where he didn’t allow any runs in four innings of work. Look for this to be a pitchers’ duel on Sunday night. 9* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Over Red Sox/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore snapped its losing streak (five straight) last night with a 2-1 win in 10 innings. They scored the game winning run on a throwing error, capping a comeback after being held hitless for the first six innings. The O’s didn’t score until the eighth while the Red Sox didn’t score after the first! There’s been very little offense in the series as the Red Sox won Friday’s opener by a score of 3-1. The Under is now 10-1-1 in Boston’s L12 games and 5-0 the L5 times they’ve faced Baltimore. But because of the starting pitching matchup, I’m on the Over today. 

Let’s start with Nick Pivetta, who Boston will send to the mound. The right-handed has an 0-4 team start record to this point and he deserves it, considering an 8.26 ERA and 1.958 WHIP. It’s been three straight starts where Pivetta failed to last five innings and Red Sox opponents ended up scoring 6+ runs in all three contests. Last time out, Pivetta surrendered only a pair of runs (on three hits) in 4 ⅔ innings. But his control issues continued with four walks, upping his season total to 13. Going back to last season, Pivetta is 0-6 over his L12 starts with a 6.61 ERA. I think even Baltimore’s lineup can get to him. 

The Baltimore bats better wake up here, because with Jordan Lyles pitching, the O’s figure to give up some runs themselves. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, not as bad as Pivetta, but he’s also notorious for allowing home runs. Last season saw Lyles lead the American League with 38 HRs allowed. He gave up three in his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Yankees, and it certainly doesn’t help that Lyles has a 6.10 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. The last two games may inspire little confidence in the two lineups, but today’s starting pitching matchup all but ensures we’ll be seeing a slugfest. 8* Red Sox/Orioles

8* Under Padres/Pirates (6:35 ET): San Diego is coming off a series in Cincinnati where all three games managed to go Over the total. The Padres averaged a healthy eight runs per game versus the Reds and the favorable schedule continues this weekend with a visit to Pittsburgh. I think you can probably make a case that the Pirates and Reds are the two worst teams in MLB right now (Nationals are pretty bad as well). Playing in the tough NL West (Dodgers & Giants both off to strong starts), San Diego needs to continue to rack up victories at the expense of the league’s bottom feeders. 

But I think the better value tonight is on the Under. Yu Darvish will get the starting nod for the Padres here and he’s been outstanding in three of his four starts. There was the one outlier against the Giants that we’ll pretend never happened, but the other three starts have seen Darvish allow a total of just five hits in 18 ⅔ IP and only one run to score. His last two starts came against the Dodgers and Braves, both of whom obviously field stronger lineups than the Pirates, who have scored only three runs in their last two games. In six of the L10 games, Pittsburgh has been held to two runs or fewer. They are hitting .199 over the L7 games. 

The question now becomes - can Pittsburgh pitching keep San Diego hitting in check? Well, I think the Padres are due to regress a bit at the plate, considering they are bottom five in the NL in both expected batting average and expected slugging. The task falls on Zach Thompson, who has admittedly not been good in his L2 starts, but he was charged with five unearned runs his last time out. His ERA of 10.80 is obviously only going to get better. San Diego is only hitting .229 the L7 games, so it’s been lucky to average 5.0 rpg over the same stretch. 8* Under Padres/Pirates

10* Over Padres/D’backs (9:45 ET): New for 2022 is a universal DH across Major League Baseball. So no more pitchers coming up to the plate in National League games. Theoretically, that should lead to an increase in scoring across the Senior Circuit. Time to put this theory to the test on Opening Day when the Padres take on the D’backs. San Diego was a big disappointment last season, finishing 79-83. They were SUPPOSED to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West pennant. Meanwhile, no one expected much from Arizona in 2021 and sure enough the D’backs lost 110 games. Only the Pirates and Orioles had worse run differentials. 

I am expecting the Padres to bounce back this year and earn a Wild Card spot (remember there are now THREE WC spots up for grabs). They actually had a positive run differential (+21) last season, so they were better than their record. Offensively, they weren’t where they wanted to be, but they did finish top 10 in OBP. Now Fernando Tatis Jr suffered a wrist fracture and will miss three months, which is a significant blow. But I still expect San Diego to put plenty of runs on the board here as Madison Bumgarner (who they know well), tonight’s starter for Arizona, has seen better days. 

Arizona gave up the most runs in the NL (893) last season and second most in MLB (only Baltimore allowed more). Bumgarner had a rough finish (1-6 TSR final seven starts) and ended up with a 4.67 ERA. Now we’re also going to need the D’backs to score some runs tonight and thankfully they’re up against Yu Darvish, who also had a poor finish to 2021 and was much worse on the road than he was at Petco Park. Darvish started twice at Chase Field last season and those outings did NOT go well (both went Over) as he allowed a total of 10 runs and lasted just 2 ⅔ IP each time. 10* Over Padres/D’backs

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:08 ET): Over bettors are having a “field day” in both LCS, but particularly here in the American League where EVERY game has gone their way. You certainly don’t have to remind me as I had the Under in the last game, which was still on track to be a winner entering the ninth inning. But Houston just “had” to put two “meaningless” runs on the board in that final frame (with two outs!) to make it a 9-1 final. It was even more painful if you have the Under in Game 3 when the Astros put SEVEN runs on the board in the top of the ninth (again, with two outs). The Under is not only 5-0 in this series, but 7-0 the L7 times they’ve met and 8-0 in each of the teams’ last eight games. 

Maybe it’s just me being stubborn, but I feel this is where the Over streak comes to an end. Boston had just three hits in Game 5 and only five hits in Game 4. That was at Fenway Park where they are averaging 5.8 runs per game for the season. On the road, that average dips to 4.5. So much of the Red Sox scoring in this series has come from a record-setting number of grand slams. But those days are over. The Under just so happens to be 6-1 in the Astros’ last seven LCS home games. 

There certainly hasn’t been a whole lot of scoring in the early innings of the L2 games. It was 1-0 (Houston) after five in Game 5 and 2-1 (Boston) entering the eighth in Game 4. Starting Game 6 for the Red Sox will be Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a total of just six runs his L4 starts (all team wins) in 17 ⅔ IP. Eovaldi will be opposed by Luis Garcia, who has seen the Under go 11-3 in his home starts thanks in large part to a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Yes, he had the disastrous start here vs. Boston in Game 2. I do not see history repeating itself. Eovaldi allowed just three runs in 5 ⅓ IP in that game, which is realistic to be repeated. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros.

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (5:08 ET): These teams must REALLY love to go Over. Last night saw the Astros stun the Fenway faithful with a seven-run ninth inning. That not only evened this ALCS up at two games apiece, but sent Game 4 Over the total by one run. Every game in the series has now gone Over. Both teams are 7-0 Over their L7 games. They are 6-0 Over the L6 times they’ve faced one another. This “madness” has to come to an end sooner rather than later. Right? 

We’ve got two lefties starting Game 5 - Framber Valdez for Houston and Chris Sale for Boston. This is a rematch from Game 1 when neither southpaw was very effective. Both were pulled after just 2 ⅔ innings. But Valdez has better numbers on the road than he does at home, namely a 2.88 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. Sale has better numbers at home (2.48 ERA, 1.276 WHIP) than he does on the road. So expect both guys to pitch better than they did in Game 1. Valdez had a 1.59 ERA vs. Boston while Sale had a 2.20 ERA vs. Houston (prior to Game 1). 

Obviously, condolences are in order to anyone that may have had the Under last night. That bet looked like a surefire winner for most of the game. It was 2-1 going into eighth and 2-2 going into the ninth with an O/U line of 10.0. But we saw what happens with Boston when they’re not hitting grand slams every night. They finished with just five hits and the only two runs scored both came in the first inning. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Red Sox have faced a left-handed starter. We’re obviously overdue for an Under in this series. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (8:07 ET): With the ALCS now set to move to Fenway Park, I’m going to call for the Over trend we’ve seen from both clubs to come to an end in Game 3. The first two games in Houston obviously both went Over as have the L5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox. However, let us not forget about the real rarity that ensued in Game 2 as the Red Sox hit not one, but TWO grand slams in the 9-5 victory. After the grand slams were hit (and the game was essentially no longer in doubt), the Red Sox managed only two hits the remainder of the game. Take the Under in Game 3. 

How rare is it to hit two grand slams in the same postseason game? Well before Boston did it on Saturday, it had NEVER happened before in MLB history! They were just the 6th team EVER to record grand slams in the first two innings of a MLB game. But I think the Astros have their man to slow the Red Sox down in Jose Urquidy, who will be making his postseason debut in Game 3. Urquidy has a 0.981 WHIP in 2021 and there have been only four starts all season where he allowed more than 3 ER.

Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in any of his L6 starts. Now he didn’t make it very long in Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay. But even still, that wound up being the lone Under to cash for the Red Sox this postseason (they lost 5-0). The Under is also 17-7-4 after the Astros’ last 28 losses and 6-2 the L8 times the Astros have been a playoff underdog. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

10* Over Giants/Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Giants have now shut the Dodgers out twice in this series, including last night’s thrilling 1-0 victory that has them on the cusp of their first NLCS since 2014. But I think it’s rather reasonable to expect the Dodgers to have a bounce back game offensively. They are 10-2 the L3 seasons following a shutout loss, including 5-1 in 2021. After being shutout in Game 1 of this series, we all saw them bounce back with nine runs in a Game 2 victory. Whether or not a bounce back night at the plate is enough to win Game 4 remains to be seen though as I think the Giants are also in line for an increase in offense this evening. 

We know that the Giants are going with Anthony DeSclafani as their starter for tonight’s game. DeSclafani may have had a strong regular season overall, but he struggled when facing the Dodgers. He is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in six starts vs. LA this year. One of those six starts saw him give up 10 runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. Another saw him serve up three home runs. DeSclafani’s regular season did end with a streak of six straight Unders. But that is probably due to end here as the Over was 4-2 the L6 times he has faced the Dodgers. 

The Dodgers have not yet officially confirmed their Game 4 starter. It could be Tony Gonsolin or it could be Walker Buehler (who started Game 1). Regardless, this play on the Over is “action,” no matter who ends up starting for the home team. The big story from last night was the 15 MPH wind, which obviously favored the pitchers. Assuming it’s a “normal night” in LA, we won’t have to worry about that again. These were the two highest scoring teams in the NL during the regular season. My play on the Under last night couldn’t have gone any better, but tonight it’s time to take the Over. 10* Over Giants/Dodgers

10* Under Giants/Dodgers (9:37 ET): The Dodgers have to be feeling pretty good about this series right now. They won Game 2 in San Francisco and now head home where they are 59-23 this season. No team has more wins at home this year. For Game 3, they will be sending Max Scherzer out the hill. Since acquiring him from Washington at the trade deadline, the Dodgers are 12-0 when Scherzer starts including the win over St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. As you’d expect, Scherzer has been pretty dominant since donning Dodger Blue. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 10 of those 12 starts. 

But the Giants can’t be discounted here. They were the only team to win more games than the Dodgers in the regular season, which is why they had the homefield advantage for this series.That’s now gone, but the fact they give up only 3.5 runs per game on the road should not be discounted. Only Milwaukee allowed less runs this year away from home. Alex Wood will get the start tonight and not only did he post a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his L3 starts, all Giants wins, but the Under has cashed in each of his L6 starts. Wood hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of those six outings. Remember the Dodgers were shutout in Game 1 of this series. 

As good as the Giants have been at run suppression this year, the Dodgers are even stingier when they’re the home team as they give up only 3.3 rpg at Chavez Ravine. That’s tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the lowest average by any home team. Opposing hitters are batting just .208 for the year here! I know Scherzer had two rocky starts at the end of the regular season (one was in Colorado) and an abbreviated outing in the WC Game. But I have full confidence in him and the Dodgers’ bullpen, which limited the Giants to just three hits in Game 2 and also shut down the Cardinals after Scherzer departed last Wednesday. 10* Under Giants/Dodgers

8* Over Brewers/Braves (1:07 ET): Runs have been scarce so far in this series with only three scored in both games. All three went to the Braves in Game 2 as they evened this LDS up 1-1. (Milwaukee won Game 1, 2-1). But with the series now shifting to Atlanta, you can look for the amount of scoring to go up. It’s rare that I’d say a team might be HAPPY to get away from home, but with Milwaukee it might just be the case. As is the case with Atlanta, the Brew Crew have a better record on the road than they do at home.

One of the reasons the Brewers have been better on the road is that their scoring average jumps to 4.8 runs per game.. That’s a half-run more per game than what they average at American Family Field. So after REALLY struggling at the plate in the first two games, look for the bats to come alive in Game 3 vs. Ian Anderson. The Over was 6-2 in Anderson’s home starts for the Braves. He posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.413 WHIP his L7 starts. The Braves allowed significantly more runs at home than they did on the road in the regular season. 

As of press time, Milwaukee had yet to officially name a Game 3 starter. There’s a good chance it will be Freddy Peralta. Regardless of who toes the rubber, this Over play does stand. If it is Peralta, take note that he struggled a bit down the stretch, posting a 4.70 ERA in five September starts. He has not started since 9/26. The Brewers did allow only 3.4 rpg on the road in the regular season, but Peralta isn’t their best option and the Braves average 5.0 at home. It’s time this series saw a high-scoring game. 8* Over Brewers/Braves

10* Under Dodgers/Giants (9:07 ET): The Dodgers ended the regular season on a 5-0 Over run. But as everyone knows, the MLB postseason is a different animal. They’ve been held to just three runs in two games and were shutout last night, 4-0 by the Giants, in Game 1 of the NLDS. Takeaway the walkoff HR in the Wild Card Game Tuesday and Los Angeles has scored only one run in the L2 games. With just five hits last night, it was pretty clear they missed 1B Max Muncy (who is out with a dislocated elbow). Despite the Dodgers’ vaunted reputation, I don’t necessarily see them bouncing back at the plate in Game 2. 

One thing the visitors shouldn’t have to worry about tonight is their starting pitching. Julio Urias has been on fire down the stretch. He was the majors’ only 20-game winner in the regular season and has an 11-0 team start record his L11 trips to the mound with a 1.77 ERA! Urias has faced the Giants five times in 2021 and held them to 2 ER or less on four of those occasions. He’s allowed a total of only three runs the last three times he faced them. The Giants are also without their starting 1B, Brandon Belt, so they too have a weaker lineup than usual right now. The Under is 6-1-1 in Urias’ previous eight starts. 

Kevin Gausman may not be able to match Urias’ gaudy WL record, but he does have a 21-12 TSR for the Giants to go along with a 2.81 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. That’s a lower ERA than Urias has. The Dodgers could only manage three singles and two doubles last night. Over the past nine games, the Giants’ staff has allowed a total of just 21 runs and posted three shutouts. So look for this to be a low-scoring Game 2. The Dodgers are 9-1 Under off their L10 losses and could not score more than three runs off Gausman any of the three times they faced him in the regular season. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants

8* Over White Sox/Astros (2:10 ET): My view that the White Sox were better on the road than their record suggests turned out to be misguided, at least for Game 1. The Astros wasted no time jumping out to a lead on Thursday afternoon, scoring at least one run from the second to the fifth inning and that was all she wrote. It ended up being a 6-1 win for the home team. The White Sox fell to 40-42 away from home this season, but as I pointed out in yesterday’s analysis, they do average 4.7 runs per game. So I’m at least expecting more offense from them this afternoon.

Houston finished tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the major league lead in runs per game at 5.3. Their offensive prowess was on full display yday as they scored six (or more) runs for the fourth consecutive game. In Game 2, they’ll face Lucas Giolito, who had a great start in LY’s postseason. But that’s just a small sample size and there’s certainly no guarantee he can repeat that performance here. Giolito did throw a complete-game three-hitter against the Astros in the regular season, but the final score was 10-1, a result I’d certainly take here as I’m on the Over. 

Framber Valdez will start Game 2 for the Astros. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five starts and also surrendered that many the last time he faced the White Sox. So there’s still hope for the road team in this series. The White Sox figure to be aggressive at the plate today as they look to avoid falling into an 0-2 series deficit. This is a lineup that’s scored 5+ runs in six of its last eight games. But the Over is 23-10-2 the L35 times Houston has been off a win, so this figures to be a high-scoring game all around. 8* Over White Sox/Astros

8* Under Yankees/Red Sox (8:08 ET): Even though the Red Sox come in averaging a MLB-high 5.8 runs per game at home and have had success this year vs. Gerrit Cole, look for the AL Wild Card Game to stay Under the total. The Yankees are NOT a particularly strong offensive club and - with one exception in September - Nathan Eovaldi has had their number the past few seasons. The Under was 13-6 in all meetings this year between the Yankees and Red Sox. That includes 8-2 at Fenway and 8-2 L10 overall. 

Eovaldi starting here for Boston makes sense. Since 2016, he has a 3.64 ERA against his former team. Five of the six times he faced them this season, Eovaldi allowed 2 ER or less. The first five saw him allow just seven runs in 31 ⅓ IP. Then he got shelled in late September. I’m going to call that last one an aberration as the Yankees are averaging just 4.4 rpg for the season, second fewest among all playoff teams (even including the National League ones). The Yanks have gone Under in 56% of their road games and 62% of their division games. 

Cole hasn’t fared well against the Red Sox this season. Like Eovaldi, he definitely did struggle a bit down the stretch. But Cole was intentionally rested Sunday so that he’d be available for this game, or a tiebreaker that ended up not being needed. The Yankees obviously trust him in the spot and it’s unlikely that he struggles badly. Cole allowed three runs or less in 23 of his 30 regular season starts. Boston is 7-1 Under in its last eight games. 8* Under Yankees/Red Sox

10* Under Red Sox/Nationals (7:05 ET): An inability to score runs has hurt Boston at the worst possible time as the Red Sox head into the final weekend of the regular season in a tenuous battle for the final playoff spot in the American League. Tied with Seattle and only a game up on Toronto for the second Wild Card, the Red Sox have dropped five of six and scored three runs or less in all five losses. Now they won’t have a DH as they head to Washington for an interleague series against the Nationals.

If you are assuming that a matchup versus a last place team should guarantee the Red Sox success over the weekend, then you better think again. They just dropped two of three to the 100+ loss Orioles, a series where every game went Under the total. The Under is 5-0 in Boston’s last five games overall. I’m a little shocked that the total is so high for tonight’s game, considering we’re playing under “NL rules.” The Under is also 19-5-2 the last 26 times the Red Sox have been road favorites (as they are here). 

I like taking the Under when you’ve got two lefties on the mound, especially in Interleague play. It’s not like the hitters are all that familiar with either starting pitcher in this game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has never faced the Nats before and Washington’s Jesse Rogers has never faced the Red Sox before. Rodriguez has a 2.94 ERA his L3 starts while Rogers is at 2.08. The Nationals could only score 11 runs in three games at Coors Field this week and are 14-5 Under following an off day. 10* Under Red Sox/Nationals

8* Under Angels/Rangers (2:05 ET): The Angels and Rangers wrap up a three-game series in Arlington this afternoon. So far, each team has prevailed one time. The Rangers took the opener 5-2 and then the Halos bounced back last night to win 7-2, thanks to Shohei Ohtani. I’m going to go ahead and predict this will be the lowest scoring game of this series. Before yesterday, six of the previous seven meetings had stayed Under the total. The Under is on a 5-1 run for Texas if they allow 5+ runs in the previous game. 

Alex Cobb gets the start Thursday afternoon for the Angels. Besides Ohtani, Cobb has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season. He has allowed 1 or 0 ER in six consecutive starts and has a 1.15 ERA in the last three. Texas is by far the lowest scoring team in the American League (3.8 rpg) so this matchup seems well-suited to continue Cobb’s recent strong run. When he inevitably departs, I’ll remain confident as last night the LA bullpen retired the final 12 hitters in order with seven strikeouts. 

Last night was also just the second time in 10 games that the Angels finished with 10 or more hits. So they are no offensive juggernaut either. In nine of their last 16 games, they’ve scored three runs or less. I thought that rookie Glenn Otto, who starts for Texas tonight, pitched pretty well in his last outing. He gave up only two runs in five innings of work. The problem was the Rangers didn’t score any runs themselves. At least here, Otto is facing a team that averages less than 4.0 runs in day games. 8* Under Angels/Rangers

10* Under Marlins/Mets (4:10 ET): Two cold teams that typically don’t hit well to begin with are playing a seven-inning game. Both the Marlins and Mets enter this series on five-game losing streaks. Miami scored just five runs in its last series while the Mets scored only six in theirs. The last two times these teams played, they combined for three and five runs and those were nine-inning games. So, yeah, I’m taking the Under in Game 1 of this Tuesday doubleheader. 

No park has seen a fewer total number of runs scored than Citi Field has this season. The average per game is just 7.3 and again, this game is shorter than usual. Not only are the Mets the lowest scoring home team in the majors this season (3.7 rpg), they allow the third fewest runs per game at home (3.6). The fact Miami only averages 3.8 rpg on the road (26th) further strengthens my belief in how this game will go.

There’s a good chance the Mets will only come up to bat six times. That’s because they are heavily favored and likely to be ahead going into the last inning. Marcus Stroman obviously has a heavy influence on this line. The Under is 10-3 in his 13 home starts and he has a 2.13 career ERA vs. Miami. Not to be overlooked though is Trevor Rogers, who gets the starting nod for the Marlins. He has a 1.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mets. His numbers this season are right on par with Stroman’s, 10* Under Marlins/Mets

10* Under Indians/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees could not finish off the sweep in Baltimore yesterday as they went down 3-2. They were one strike away from winning, but a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth allowed the Orioles to tie the game and then it was over in the 10th. The loss leaves the Yankees one-half game back of the Blue Jays and Red Sox for the Wild Card as they’ve now dropped 13 of 19 overall. A favorable six-game homestand begins tonight with a visit from Cleveland, but I have my doubts about a Yankees team that is only averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. Take the Under here.

Cleveland comes in on the heels of a 12-3 win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Tribe is looking to make it B2B wins for the first time in over two weeks here. But despite what they did at the plate 48 hours ago, the Indians are also not a strong offensive club. They’ve been no hit THREE times in 2021, the most recent one coming less than a week ago. Prior to erupting for 12 runs in their last game, the Indians had scored three or fewer in eight of nine contests. I expect them to revert back to those previous struggles tonight against a familiar face in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber, who won two Cy Youngs with Cleveland, has had a bit of a rocky stretch since returning from the injured list. But with a 2.79 ERA at Yankees Stadium this year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track. For the Yankees’ sake, Kluber better be sharp tonight because I’m also expecting a strong outing from Cleveland starter Zach Plesac, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Plesac had been getting a ton of run support before his team was no-hit his last time out. The amount of run support (7+ runs in six straight starts) made little sense given the Indians’ offensive woes and as we saw in the last start, it’s not likely to continue. 10* Under Indians/Yankees

10* Under Tigers/Rays (7:10 ET): This is a rematch from last weekend, a series in which the Tigers surprisingly won two of the three games. The three games were all pretty high-scoring. Each had nine or more total runs scored with the two Tigers’ wins seeing 14 and 15 total runs scored. Detroit continued to play the role of spoiler earlier this week by Milwaukee twice. So that’s four wins in five games for them, all against current division leaders. But all the wins also came at home where they are now a respectable 39-36 on the year. I expect them to struggle more on the road this weekend, especially at the plate. 

Tampa Bay is still going to be fine, even after losing two of three in Toronto to start the week. Their lead in the AL East is still eight games and they are the only team in the American League with 90 wins on the season. They could not get much offense going in Toronto though and that’s a bit of a concern. The Rays scored just six runs in the three games. Now they face a pitching staff that held Milwaukee to just one run and seven hits the last two days. It’ll be Tyler Alexander starting for the Tigers and not only did he just hold the Rays to one run in 4 ⅓ IP last week, he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.133 WHIP his L3 starts.

But for Tampa Bay, the best thing about being back home is that they don’t give up many runs here. They allow just 3.3 per game, the fewest by any AL team. Opponents are batting just .216 for the year at Tropicana Field. Kevin Cash will go with an opener on Thursday night, Louis Head, before giving the baseball to Dietrich Enns. Enns looked dominant the last time we saw him as he tossed four shutout innings and didn’t even allow a single baserunner. He had six strikeouts as well. The Tigers only scored five runs the last two days and two of the last four games have seen them finish with only three hits. This has all the makings of a low-scoring series opener. 10* Under Tigers/Rays

10* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): I won with the Phillies yesterday. They homered three times en route to a 6-1 victory. The win was much needed for them as they’d dropped the first two games of this series with the Rockies and were starting to fall off the pace in the races for the 2nd NL Wild Card and the NL East pennant. The Phils enter Sunday 2.5 and 3.5 games back in those respective races. Colorado, a non-contender that’s 20-51 on the road, is a team they should obviously beat again. But I like this game’s chances of going Over more than I do Philadelphia winning. 

Aaron Nola has pitched pretty well at home for Philly this season. But he’s also been plagued by inconsistency all throughout 2021. He comes in with a 6.91 ERA over his L3 starts, largely due to a poor effort in Washington on September 2nd where he gave up six runs in four innings. Nola has a 4.57 ERA for the season and each of those last three starts have gone Over. I know that the Rockies typically don’t do much scoring on the road. But they did score 11 runs here on Friday. The Over is 10-4-1 in their L15 games at Philadelphia. Nola has given up five or more runs six different times in 2021. 

Colorado better score plenty of runs today, if they have any hopes of winning. I say this because they probably shouldn’t expect much from starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner will be making just his second career start on Sunday. This is someone who was pitching in Double-A not all that long ago. On the very first pitch of his big-league career, Feltner allowed a home run. He’d go on to allow a total of six runs in 2 ⅔ IP in that start, including three home runs. Something else to consider is that both of these teams have bad bullpens. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies

10* Under Marlins/Braves (7:20 ET): Atlanta is a big favorite on the ML Saturday night and for good reason. They beat the Marlins 6-2 on Friday and have Charlie Morton set to go tonight. Morton is 13-5 this season and is coming off B2B quality starts where he gave up a total of three runs and five hits in 13 IP. Both of those starts came on the road, but fear not - Morton has a 1.128 WHIP at home. His previous two starts against Miami have seen him go six innings and allow two runs on three hits, then seven innings while allowing no runs and two hits. It figures to be another long night at the plate for a Miami team that struck out 17 times on Friday. 

But with the ML being so high, we’re forced to scramble for other options here. I like the Under here as the Braves scored five of their six runs in one inning yesterday. They’ve struck out 10 or more times in three straight games. Miami has struck out 10+ times in six of their last eight games, so there’s been a lot of “swinging and missing” from these teams of late. Atlanta probably is a bit lucky to have scored 13 runs in their last two games on 17 hits. Elieser Hernandez, who starts today for Miami, has 1.67 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Braves. 

Hernandez normally doesn’t go more than five innings, but it’s worth noting that he’s given up more than ER only once in six tries this year. The Under has hit three of the last four times he has started. I still expect the home team to win today (obviously) and given that feeling, it is very likely we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That’s always a boon when holding an Under ticket and with Miami scoring three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games, this figures to be another low-scoring contest. The Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ L5 games where they’d given up 5+ runs in the previous game. 10* Under Marlins/Braves

9* Under Rangers/Angels (9:40 ET): On paper, this is a game the Angels SHOULD win. They have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. They are facing a Rangers team that is an atrocious 16-49 on the road, including 5-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250. Conversely, the Angels are 9-1 as home favorites this year in the -175 to -250 price range. The Halos also just took two of three from a Yankees team that had been as hot as any team in baseball. But I’m not confident in the home team scoring many runs in this game. Thus, Under is the right play in this series opener. 

The Angels currently sit two games below .500 and are fourth in the AL West. There’s really no realistic path towards the playoffs. But at least they can relish the fact they have Ohtani on their roster. The two-way star did surprisingly struggle his last time out, giving up three homers and four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But prior to that one bad outing, he’d gone 5-0 his previous six starts, allowing only seven runs in 40 IP. Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League and Ohtani is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against them. There have been only four times this season where Ohtani allowed more than 2 ER. None of them came consecutively. So he’ll bounce back tonight. 

 The Angels are hitting only .214 the last seven games, so they have their issues at the plate as well. Tonight they’ll be facing Glenn Otto, who in his big league debut last Friday held Houston (highest scoring team in baseball) to just two hits in five innings. Otto didn’t allow a run or walk and had seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Rangers ended up losing 5-4, but for Otto it was a very strong effort. When these teams met in Arlington last month, three of the four games saw five or fewer total runs scored. 9* Under Rangers/Angels

10* Under Braves/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams opened up a four-game series last night. Early on, it looked to be the typical high-scoring game at Coors Field. After the top of the fifth, the Braves led 6-5. But then the scoring halted and 6-5 was how the game ended. It was a critical win for Atlanta, whose lead in the NL East is down to two games over the surging Phillies. While the Rockies are terrible on the road (18-50 record), they are a team to be taken seriously at home where they’ve gone 43-23 this year. So I’m not going to make a play on the ML here. I think another (relatively) low-scoring game is on tap. Take the Under. 

I do think the Braves will end up winning their division. My confidence stems from the fact they are currently the only team in the NL East with a positive YTD run differential. It’s not like they are barely “in the black” either. They have scored 89 more runs than they’ve allowed. They give up only 3.8 runs per game on the road and have to feel pretty good about their chances here due to a 17-5 record this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (42-14 L3 seasons). Plus they have Huascar Ynoa on the bump and he’s got a 2.06 ERA and 0.866 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which stayed Under. 

Ynoa has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. But what has me on the Under rather than the Braves here is the fact Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has also been pitching lights out of late. He has a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts after an incredible outing on Sunday where he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Dodgers. He retired the first 12 batters he faced.  It was the fourth straight quality start for Senzatela, who has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. None of Atlanta’s last 12 games have seen more than 11 total runs scored (Under is 9-1-2). The Rockies are 6-1 Under their L7 games. 10* Under Braves/Rockies

8* Under Royals/Mariners (4:10 ET): Kansas City has hit a grand slam in three consecutive games. It’s only the fifth time since 1895 that a team has done that and last year’s Padres are the only team in MLB history to do it four straight games. As small as the odds were that the Royals would do it again yesterday, they are even smaller now. The last two grand slams have come from catcher Salvador Perez and under normal circumstances he might not even play today (day game after a night game). He’ll likely lobby to get in the lineup, but don’t expect another grand slam. I’m taking the Under today.

If you’ve been following my analysis this season, then you know it pleased me some to see the Mariners lose by one run in extra innings last night. This is a team that’s grossly overachieved this season. They are 69-60, but have a -59 run differential. A team with that run differential you’d expect to have a 58-71 record.The key has been a 26-15 record in one-run games and an 11-5 record in extra innings. But they got a “taste of their own medicine” last night with an 8-7 defeat in a game that went 12 innings. 

It was supposed to be Carlos Hernandez starting for the Royals on Saturday, but he was called upon last night when Kris Bubic couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Hernandez did an excellent job keeping his team in the game, retiring 14 batters in a row. Seattle hits just .210 at home and has the worst overall team batting average in baseball. They are also bottom five in OBP, slugging and OPS. Daniel Lynch will now get the starting call for KC, keeping this a battle of lefties. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 12 IP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. Despite all the grand slams, the Royals still only average 3.7 rpg on the road this season. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

8* Under Royals/Mariners (10:10 ET): This will be the first time in over two years that these teams have faced off. That’s really odd considering they both hail from the American League, but last year’s schedule was dramatically altered because of the pandemic. They met eight times in 2019 and none of the games saw fewer than nine runs scored. But a lot can change in 2+ years. Neither of the teams are very strong offensively in 2021. I’m taking the Under in this battle of unfamiliar opponents.

My thoughts on Seattle are well known. How they are still in Wild Card contention is a minor miracle. This is a team that’s been outscored by 56 runs this season, but is somehow 11 games above .500. They’ve gone 26-14 in one-run games and 11-4 in extra innings. Very fortunate. It’s also amazing that they can win with an offense that is so unproductive. Coming into this series, the Mariners are dead last in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 25th in slugging and 27th in OPS. They are hitting .209 for the year at home. Kansas City’s Brad Keller, who is off a quality start his last time out, should pitch well here.

But so should Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. He didn’t pitch well his last time out, but he was facing Houston, the highest scoring team in the big leagues. Kikuchi has generally pitched very well this season. That last trip to the mound was only the third time since April that he permitted more than 3 ER in a start. Kansas City, like Seattle, is bad offensively. They average only 3.7 rpg on the road. After being shut out on Tuesday, they scored five times yesterday. But four of those five runs came from a grand slam. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

8* Over Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore’s losing streak is over. They snapped a 19-game skid yesterday by beating the Angels 10-6. The win also snapped a four-game losing streak to the Angels this season. Now Thursday’s starter Keegan Akin will try and stop his own personal losing skid. Akin is still winless on the season and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts. I can’t bet on him. Nor can I bet on the Angels’ Jaime Barria, who also has ugly looking numbers. Almost all of the Angels-Orioles matchups this year have turned into slugfests and this one should be no different. Take the Over. 

There were 16 total runs scored in yesterday’s and 22 scored in Tuesday’s game. The Angels won that one 14-8. Twenty runs in two games is pretty impressive and Los Angeles should continue to hit the cover off the ball today against Akin, who has an 8.87 ERA and 2.014 WHIP. The last time Akin faced the Angels, he gave up four runs in three innings. That game, an 8-7 loss for Baltimore, easily went Over the total. Akin almost never makes it past the fifth inning and (as I’m sure you could have guessed) the O’s bullpen (5.30 ERA) is pretty horrific. 

Barria’s numbers over his last three starts are nearly identical to Akin’s. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP during that time. Last time out, he was tagged for five runs in two innings by a Cleveland team that is offensively challenged. While both these teams have had their fair share of struggles at the plate in August, it’s clear that the hitters are ahead of the pitchers in this series. The Over is 37-15 the last 52 times the Angels have been favored. Baltimore is 28-12-1 Over its last 41 home games. 8* Over Angels/Orioles

10* Under Royals/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston has had its fair share of difficulty beating Kansas City. The teams have met six times this month and it’s the Royals with the surprising 4-2 head to head advantage. But last night was a 4-0 shutout for the Astros, thanks to a superb outing from Luis Garcia. The Royals’ offense had been surging in recent days, but could only manage four hits against Garcia and four Astros’ relievers. I’m not shocked that it happened. For the season, KC is averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. So they were “due” to come back down to Earth. Look for the offensive regression to continue here.

Houston has the highest runs per game average in baseball (5.4) but they have scored just eight times in the previous three games. Three of their four runs last night came in the first inning. Kansas City pitching has been pretty good of late. Only once in the last eight games have they allowed more than four runs. Mike Minor is set to start Wednesday afternoon and he allowed just three runs in 5 ⅔ IP when he faced the Astros last Thursday. The Under is 5-0-1 in Minor’s last six starts. 

Houston holds teams to 3.9 rpg and a .218 batting average here at home. Those numbers are obviously very good. Lance McCullers gets the starting nod today. He now has 10 wins on the year and has gone 7-3 over his L11 starts. He did not face the Royals in last week’s series. But he did hold Seattle to only two runs in his most recent start. There have been only four times all year where McCullers has allowed more than 3 ER. Assuming Houston is up, they won’t have to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Royals/Astros

10* Under Angels/Indians (4:10 ET): Yesterday’s game went Over the total by half a run, but that was with the Indians basically doing all the scoring. They won 9-1, snapping the Halos’ three-game win streak. Now the Tribe seek to do something that they’ve only been able to do one time in August. That's win back to back games. This isn’t a particularly strong offensive club (25th in team batting average, 27th in OBP), so I have my doubts. But rather than fade them, I’m taking the Under here. Starting for the home team this afternoon is Triston McKenzie and he’s been red hot of late. 

Last time out, McKenzie very nearly threw a perfect game. He didn’t allow a hit until the 8th inning as he retired the first 23 batters he saw. There were zero walks and 11 strikeouts. Over his L3 starts, McKenzie has a 0.524 WHIP, which is just plain sick. He’s allowed just 10 hits and 1 walk in his last 21 IP. As a reminder, the Angels scored just one run yesterday and had four hits. You have to figure they’ll struggle against facing McKenzie.

But Cleveland only averages 4.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter. Today they are up against southpaw Reid Detmers. While Detmers struggled in his first two big league starts, giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅓ innings to the Dodgers and A’s, he came back with a solid outing last Sunday when he held Houston to one run and three hits over six innings. The Indians will be - by far - the weakest offensive club that Detmers has faced over his first four starts. The Under is 20-7-1 the L28 times LA has been an underdog. 10* Under Angels/Indians

8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): By now, most are aware of my “feelings” on the Mariners. They have no business being in Wild Card contention. Not with a -42 YTD run differential. But they have won 8 of 10 and are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas. Five of their last eight wins have come at the Rangers’ expense. Key to Seattle’s success this season is their MLB-best 26-14 record in one-run games. They are also 10-4 in games decided in extra innings. Sure enough, they won 9-8 in 11 innings yesterday. 

Houston also won in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Beating Kansas City 6-3 not only had them avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep, but kept them 2.5 games in front of Oakland for the division lead. The Astros have the top run differential in the American League right now (+164) and I’ve been saying all year that they will win the West. They also have MLB’s highest scoring offense at 5.3 runs per game. But their scoring average goes DOWN at home and I’m taking the Under in this one.

Seattle has one of the worst offenses in MLB. They are dead last in team batting average (.222) as well as bottom three in both OBP (.299) and OPS (.681). So this should be a mismatch in favor of the Astros. But Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi should be able to keep this one low-scoring. Kikuchi has a 2.97 ERA on the road and 13 quality starts this season. Only twice since the beginning of May has he allowed more than 3 ER in a start. Houston’s Lance McCullers should make this a nice pitcher’s duel though as he is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 previous starts against the Mariners. From April 25th through August 3rd, McCullers had a nice stretch where he went 8-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. 8* Under Mariners/Astros

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): I took the Brew Crew on Tuesday. They won 2-0, ending the Cardinals’ six-game win streak. In my analysis, I noted how the entirety of the Cards’ win streak was at the expense of the Pirates and Royals, two last place teams, and this step up in class was likely to give them some trouble. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in baseball, with one of the best pitching staffs, and sure enough they were 6-4 winners last night. While that game only went Over because of extra innings (Brewers tied it in the top of the ninth), I think this one is likely to sneak Over as well! 

Now playing the Over when Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee hasn’t been all that smart. The Under is 8-2 when Woodruff starts on the road. But you should note one of those Overs came in his last start, which was at Wrigley Field. There, the Brewers scored 17 runs in an absolute rout. Not saying that Woodruff is going to get that kind of support yet again. But the fact he had to leave that last start after three innings seems like a concern. He needed 74 pitches to retire just nine batters. The Brewers’ bullpen was taxed yesterday (seven relievers used), so if Woodruff can’t go deep into the game, they are in trouble. 

The Cardinals wasted an early 3-0 lead yesterday and didn’t score at all from the third through ninth inning. They have averaged 5.3 rpg over the last week though and will need to approach that average tonight due to Jon Lester starting for them. Lester has struggled in his first three starts for St. Louis (traded from Washington), posting a 6.75 ERA. He was better his last time out, but that was his second straight time facing the last place Royals. Lester has a 5.32 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the season. He’s just not the pitcher he once was. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

8* Under Phillies/D’backs (3:40 ET): If you recall, I wasn’t buying the Phillies back when they were on an eight-game win streak and in first place in the National League East. So it’s not a big shock to see that they’ve come crashing back down, losing six of their last eight games. What is surprising is the last two losses have come against the D’backs, a horrible team that has the lowest win percentage in the entire Senior Circuit. Philly has just four runs and seven hits in the first two games and could now be swept by a team that has just four win streaks of three games or longer all season. 

If the Phillies are to avoid the sweep, it will likely be because of today’s starter Zack Wheeler. Though he has twice given up four runs over his L3 starts, Wheeler has generally been outstanding in 2021. He is #1 among all starters in innings pitched (162), strikeouts (187) and complete games (three). He’s struck out 10+ batters in six different starts this season. Arizona does not exactly have the most fearsome lineup and Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in seven career starts against them. 

But my fear with the Phillies this afternoon is that they are not likely to score many runs. Over the last week, they’ve averaged less than three per game. They face Madison Bumgarner, who has strung together a pretty strong six-start stretch since coming back from injury. MadBum has a 2.09 ERA over the six starts, which have seen him allow 2 ER or less every time out. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games. I look for a pitcher’s duel this afternoon in the desert. 8* Under Phillies/D’backs

10* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I’m 2 for 2 so far in this series, having won with the Braves on Monday and then Under on Tuesday. That combo is likely to hit again tonight, but considering the “price tag” on Atlanta (now -200 on ML), the Under certainly seems to carry more value. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that - on average - LoanDepot Park in Miami has seen the second fewest number of runs per game scored of any stadium in MLB (Citi Field is #1). That average is now down to 7.7 rpg after yday’s 2-0 final. The only runs scored last night came in the eighth and ninth innings. Take the Under again. 

Wednesday starter Charlie Morton is having a fine season for Atlanta. The veteran right-hander has won 9 of his past 11 decisions and is working on a streak of seven straight starts with 3 ER or less allowed. He’s gone at least six innings six times in that seven start stretch with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. The Under is 3-0 his L3 starts. The last time Morton pitched here in Miami, he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits (5-0 Atlanta win). The Marlins have really struggled at the plate in this series, scoring only two runs on eight hits. Last night marked the 11th time they’ve been shutout this season. 

The Braves are really surging right now and I do expect them to win the NL East. But, something else I mentioned in yday’s analysis is how their scoring average dips on the road, from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. For the first time, they’ll face Jesus Luzardo tonight. Luzardo came over from the A’s in the Starling Marte trade and he has struggled with his command in three starts for Miami. But one start in Colorado really skews his numbers. Marlins’ opponents are averaging just 3.7 rpg here in Miami and hitting .218. That’s for the year. Luzardo will pitch better than expected. 10* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees swept Tuesday’s doubleheader and are now tied with the Red Sox for second place in the AL East. The two wins yesterday also moved them into a three-way tie with Oakland in the Wild Card race. Only two of the three teams can make it and you still shouldn’t discount Toronto (four games back) either. The two games yesterday (both seven innings, remember) were relatively low-scoring affairs: 5-3 and 2-0. But it should be noted that in the first game, Boston had the bases loaded in the top of the ninth (with no outs) and did not score. I like the Over today.

The Yankees are definitely surging right now as they’ve won five straight and 12 of the last 15 games. Their 45-23 record in games decided by two runs or less is the best in all of MLB. The offense is scoring more now and I like its chances against Nick Pivetta, who has somehow not started any of the 15 times Boston has faced the Yankees this year. Pivetta is coming off B2B strong outings, but this Yankees lineup is getting healthier and could get Anthony Rizzo back from the COVID-19 list tonight. 

Twice in the last seven games, the Red Sox have put up 16 and 20 runs. So their lineup must be respected. It’s still top six in MLB in runs scored. Yesterday they went 2 for 14 with RISP and the middle of the order (Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez) went 3 for 18 overall. You have to expect better in this one. Especially when Yankees’ starter Andrew Heaney has posted a 9.00 ERA over his L3 starts. Heaney has had a bit of a rough season and that’s led to the Over being 15-5-1 in his 21 starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

8* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I had Atlanta yesterday and they rolled to a 12-2 win in the series opener. If you read that analysis, then you know I’m pretty high on the Braves right now and expect them to win the NL East for a fourth straight year. That confidence is based on the fact they currently sport a +82 run differential. No other team in the division even has a positive run differential. RD is typically an excellent barometer for projecting future performance. Throw in the fact that the Braves have won four straight and 11 of their last 13 and they SHOULD be feeling pretty good about themselves right now. 

But I don’t see them scoring 12 runs again tonight, or even close to that number. I had zero issue fading Marlins’ lefty Braxton Garrett last night as the Braves came in on a 6-0 run vs. southpaws. But tonight they must deal with Sandy Alcantara, a righty. Don’t be fooled by Alcantara’s 3-8 TSR at home. He’s pitched really well here (2.58 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). The Under is 8-2-1 in all Alcantara home starts. Though I was supremely confident in them last night, it should be pointed out that the Braves’ scoring average dips from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. Alcantara is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six career starts vs. Atlanta. 

Marlins’ home games are typically low-scoring. You’re looking at an average of 7.8 total runs per game scored. That’s the second lowest average of any park in all of baseball (Citi Field is the lowest). Atlanta only gives up 3.9 rpg away from home, so we really look to be in good shape with this play. Starting for the Braves on Tuesday will be Huascar Ynoa, who has not pitched since May due to breaking his hand punching the dugout bench. Before breaking his hand, Ynoa had eight starts under his belt and allowed two runs or less in six of them. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland got an outstanding pitching performance from starter Triston McKenzie on Sunday. McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, retiring the first 23 batters he saw. He left after allowing just one hit in eight innings. The Indians won 11-0. The team can probably expect another strong effort on the mound today as Cal Quantrill gets the starting nod. Over his L6 starts, Quantrill has allowed a total of five runs in 36 IP. All six games have stayed Under the total. I think this one will too as Quantrill will be opposed by another pitcher who has put up impressive numbers of late. 

That would be Griffin Jax of Minnesota. Jax's first career big league victory came at the Indians’ expense back on June 25th. It was in a relief effort. As a starter, Jax has done quite well. All five starts have stayed Under with him posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in the last three. Though the number of runs he allowed in his last start (three) were equal to the number he allowed in the previous three combined, it was arguably Jax’s finest effort to date as he struck out a season-high 10 batters in a 4-3 win over the White Sox. None of Jax’s starts have seen more than nine total runs scored in the game. Same for Quantrill and those L6 starts. 

Minnesota’s last three series were all against division leaders. Surprisingly, they won all three series. Two of the last three wins have come in shutout fashion. But they’ve also been held to one run or less in their last three losses. Cleveland, off a shutout win, isn’t much of a threat to score as they average just 4.1 rpg on the road while hitting a collective .227. They are bottom five in both team batting average and on base percentage for the year. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel on Monday. 10* Under Indians/Twins

8* Under Rockies/Giants (4:05 ET): One component of this Under should be rather easy. Colorado averages a pitiful 3.1 runs per game on the road. That’s the fewest in all of MLB. San Francisco is giving up only 3.7 rpg for the year. That ranks 2nd overall. The Giants have Alex Wood going Sunday. The team is 4-0 in his last four starts even though Wood has been far from his best in the last three. He’s faced Colorado twice this year and given up only four runs in 11 IP. I’m confident the Rockies aren’t going to score many runs on Sunday. 

But the Giants only scored once in a (4-1) loss Saturday. That was after winning the first two games of the series 7-0 and 5-4. Yesterday marked just the 14th road win of the season for the Rockies. They still only had five hits though. The loss snapped the Giants’ six-game win streak. I think they should continue to “cool off” at the plate though as they go against Jon Gray here.Back in May, Gray allowed only two runs in six innings when he faced the Giants at home. 

The Giants are big favorites Sunday though and that should be respected. Assuming they do win today, that means we won’t have to worry about playing the bottom of the ninth, which is nice when you have the Under. The Under is 8-2 in Colorado’s L10 games after allowing two runs or less the last game. The Giants are 7-0 Under the L7 Sundays. I don’t see many runs being scored in this one. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under A’s/Rangers (2:35 ET): After having their seven-game win streak snapped Friday, the A’s wasted little time getting back on track with a 8-3 win over the Rangers Saturday. Considering Texas is the last place team in the division, and one of the worst teams in baseball, it’s surprising that Oakland is only 9-6 in the head to head series this year. Looking at today’s game, the A’s have never been priced higher on the money line for any road game than they are here. I’m not too keen on playing them at this price, but I do believe they’ll keep the Rangers’ weak offense in check. Take the Under.

Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League. They are 29th in MLB in team batting average, 30th (i.e. last) in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS. So that’s bottom two in the four major categories. So Sean Manaea, despite off a couple shaky starts, should have an easy job this afternoon. In 14 career starts vs. the Rangers, Manaea is 7-3 with a 3.65 ERA. He had ended July with B2B quality starts, allowing one run on four hits total. He also had 22 strikeouts in the two starts (13 IP).

So in terms of the Under, it’s probably up to the Rangers to keep Oakland’s bats in check. Starter Kolby Allard has yet to win at home this season (0-6). But his WHIP (1.182) is not all that bad and he’s coming off B2B quality starts. Against both the Angels and Mariners, Allard allowed just two runs in six innings. Given how Oakland has been swinging the bats recently, I know it seems “risky” to take the Under. But they only give up 3.6 runs per game on the road. Texas won’t score much and I don’t think Oakland will either. 8* Under A’s/Rangers

8* Under Cubs/Marlins (7:35 ET): Needless to say, it doesn’t look like we’re going to have a repeat of 2003 when these two teams were involved in one of the most infamous NLCS of all-time. Both the Cubs and Marlins have been relegated to “playing out the string” at this point. The Cubs have lost eight in a row and gave up 27 runs in the two games, both of which were against NL Central-leading Milwaukee. So they’ll be happy to make the trip to Miami and play someone else. The Marlins were off yesterday after shutting out San Diego 7-0 on Wednesday. Despite what the recent trends say, I’m taking the Under in this series opener. 

Prior to the shutout win 48 hours ago, Miami had been on an 8-1 Over run. They’d been giving up their fair share of runs, but it’s important to note the majority of those games were on the road and three of them were at Coors Field. Now they return home. LoanDepot Park has quietly become a safe haven for Marlins’ pitchers as they are giving up just 3.5 runs per game and a .211 batting average here. Unfortunately, the offense doesn’t always do its job as the Marlins only average 3.9 rpg at home. The total average number of runs scored per game in this park this season is second lowest in MLB (Citi Field is #1). 

Cubs pitching gave up all those runs the L2 days, but you may not have noticed that yesterday was the most runs they scored in a game in quite some time. Unfortunately, that number was only four. On the road, the Cubs average just 3.7 rpg this season. Before yesterday, they’d scored just eight times in five games and were shutout twice. The two starters for tonight’s game - Adbert Alzolay for the Cubs and Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins - don’t have the best numbers. But the former has pitched better than his record and is off a quality start. The latter is backed by a strong bullpen. 8* Under Cubs/Marlins

10* Over A’s/Indians (7:10 ET): The A’s are in the driver’s seat right now in the AL Wildcard race. They stayed hot by coming from behind to win here in Cleveland last night, 4-3 in 10 innings. It was their fifth straight win, which not only put them on top of the WC race but they are also just two games back of the Astros in the West! Meanwhile, Cleveland is fading fast. They’re now below .500 on the season and have a run differential that’s not indicative of a true contender. While most signs do point to another Oakland victory tonight, I am more confident in the fact that there will be more runs scored than what we saw yesterday. Take the Over. 

Last night marked Oakland’s sixth straight win here at Progressive Field and the team’s bullpen deserves virtually all of the credit. They did not get a good effort from Tuesday’s starter Sean Manaea, who allowed three runs in 1 ⅔ innings. But the relievers came in and did their job, not only keeping Cleveland scoreless for the rest of the game but also allowing only one hit! But that kind of bullpen usage puts a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Frankie Montas, who still has a 4.10 ERA despite some recent strong efforts on the mound (five straight quality starts). I think Cleveland will be able to string together more offense tonight compared to yesterday. 

Cal Quantrill, like Montas, is coming off a strong five start stretch. In fact, the L5 starts by the Indians’ right-hander have stayed Under. But I see that string of quality efforts coming to an end here. The last Montas-Quantrill matchup (took place on 7/17) ended up being a 3-2 Oakland win. But the hitters are getting a second chance and in the case of BOTH lineups, should do better. Outside of a series with the Angels, the A’s have not gone Under in B2B games in awhile. The Over is 38-28-4 in Indians’ night games this year. 10* Over A’s/Indians

8* Under White Sox/Twins (1:10 ET): Chicago may be rolling towards the AL Central pennant, but mediocre play on the road may ultimately doom them in the postseason. This is basically a .500 team away from home (29-27) and they lost to the last place Twins last night by a score of 4-3. That all being said, I couldn’t possibly endorse the Twins in this spot either. They are just 5-13 vs. the White Sox in 2021 and were beaten 11-1 back in the series opener. What I do think is - similar to yesterday - this is set to be a pretty low-scoring day game. Take the Under.

White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in six of the last nine games. With Lance Lynn on the bump Wednesday afternoon, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. This will be the fifth time Lynn starts against Minnesota this season. So far he’s unbeaten (2-0) and has allowed just five runs (one unearned) on 16 hits in 24 IP. Lynn should come out a lot stronger than Dallas Kuechel did yesterday. Keuchel issued three walks in a two-run 1st inning for the Twins. 

The White Sox also didn’t help themselves at the plate last night as they struck out 10 times. One more word on that aforementioned road record of theirs - they’ve actually outscored opponents by a full run per game on the road this season, so maybe that record should be better. But they can’t run from the fact their scoring average dips to 4.4 runs per game in the daytime. Rookie Bailey Ober gets the starting nod here for Minnesota. He has not been all that successful in four previous starts against the White Sox this season, but did keep them scoreless for five innings (allowed just two hits!) the last time he faced them at home. 8* Under White Sox/Twins

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right here. Both Texas and Seattle are bottom five in: team batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and OPS. They are the bottom two in both batting average and slugging. In addition, the Rangers are second worst in slugging and worst in OPS. So the Under makes a lot of sense here. Texas has scored the fewest runs among American League teams. They’ve also dropped six in a row coming into tonight while not scoring more than three runs in any of those losses. 

 If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 59-54 despite a run differential of -51. With that kind of run differential, this team should be nowhere near Wild Card contention. They have a “win expectancy” of 51. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. While the Mariners have generally thrived in one-run games this season, five of their last six losses have come by that margin. Their last six games, including a 2-0 win over the Yankees on Sunday, have all gone Under. 

Logan Gilbert doesn’t have the best ERA, but he does have 1.099 WHIP and an 11-3 TSR for the M’s. I expect him to pitch well tonight in what will be his third start of the season vs. Texas. The Rangers have dropped 14 consecutive road games and are hitting just .173 over the last week. Kolby Allard, today’s starter, is having a miserable season for them (1-11 TSR). But he was sharp in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings. His WHIP is only 1.20. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

10* Over Yankees/Royals (8:10 ET): The Yankees missed out on a chance to sweep the Mariners, losing Sunday by a score of 2-0. But I think they are likely to “rediscover” their offense tonight here in Kansas City as they oppose Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. While they were blanked yesterday, NY had previously averaged 7.2 runs per game during its five-game win streak. Take the Over here. 

Hernandez is coming off two straight effective outings against the White Sox. He won both by allowing just one run in 11 innings. However, it’s still a small sample size with the rookie, who has made only four starts this year. He has faced the Yankees once previous to this, but as a reliever on June 23rd. That appearance saw him blow a lead by giving up two runs in two innings. The Royals’ bullpen has gotten no better since Hernandez was moved to the starting rotation. Yesterday they gave up four runs in the late innings, resulting in the offense having to score in the top of the ninth in order to get the 6-5 win and avoid what would have been a three-game sweep. 

Jameson Taillon has pitched well of late for the Yankees (3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA L3 starts), but there’s reason for concern with him in this spot as it’s a road game. Taillon has a 5.27 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in nine road starts. As a result, the Over is 7-2. He did pitch well against the Royals back on 6/24, but that was at home and this will be their second time seeing him. The Royals scoring average at home jumps from 3.5 rpg on the road to 4.7 at home. The pitcher had to come up to bat in the last series (at St. Louis), which is no longer the case here. 10* Over Yankees/Royals

10* Under Angels/Dodgers (4:05 ET): I’m just going to go ahead and take from my writeup (which told you to play the Under) on Friday’s game between these teams. There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. Not only did Friday’s game stay Under (4-3 final) so did Saturday’s (5-3).

Over their last 10 games, the Angels have topped five runs only once. That was against a terrible Rangers team. They have been held to three runs or less in seven of those ten games. They figure to struggle to score runs again today as they have to face Walker Buehler. Buehler was already having another great season for the Dodgers with a 2.16 ERA and 0.918 WHIP. But lately, he’s been “lights out.” He’s allowed just four runs in his last five starts and has a 0.89 ERA in the last three. Over the last two months, Buehler has allowed a grand total of two home runs. 

With the Angels likely to struggle to score runs in this game, all we now need to “worry about” is the Dodgers’ offense. Thankfully, it is quite likely that they’ll only come up to bat eight times in this game. (This is assuming they have the lead heading into the ninth). The Dodgers have been shutout twice in the last eight games though. They lost Friday’s game and it still went Under. So regardless of who wins here, anything but another low-scoring game would surprise me. Reid Detmers is a lefty and the Dodgers are 19-13 Under this season when facing a southpaw. 10* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Twins/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston finally won a game in this series, snapping what was a three-game losing skid with a 4-0 shutout yesterday. Despite the recent skid and the fact their lead in the AL West is down to three games over Oakland, I don’t think there’s any “problem” in Houston right now. The club still sports the best run differential (+151) in the American League and will have no problem making the postseason. Minnesota came into 2021 thinking playoffs, but they have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season as they are in last place in the Central and down 27.6 units at the betting window. 

The ML is too rich for my blood here and I don’t want to risk the chance the Astros win this game by only one run (so no run line). But I am confident this one stays Under the total. Houston may be the highest scoring team in MLB, but they actually average more runs per game on the road. They also have not scored more than five runs in any game in August. Kenta Maeda starts today for the Twins and should bounce back from a rough outing at Cincinnati last week. Prior to giving up five runs in that game, Maeda had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts and 11 of his last 12. 

Lance McCullers Jr threw 6 ⅔ scoreless innings for Houston in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers last weekend. He looks to replicate that performance as he toes the rubber again Sunday. McCullers comes in with a 9-2 WL record and 3.02 ERA. Prior to that last outing, he’d given up four runs in B2B starts. But before that he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of his 15 starts. Including last year’s brief playoff series, these teams have combined to go 6-1-1 Under against each other the L2 seasons. The Twins are 8-0-1 Under their last nine games vs. AL West teams. 10* Under Twins/Astros

8* Under Mets/Phillies (4:05 ET): Philadelphia won its sixth straight game on Friday and is now in first place in the NL East. After scoring a total of 43 runs in the previous five games, they needed only four to take last night’s series opener from the Mets. The Phillies were fortunate, not only to overcome three errors, but also that the Mets 1 for 8 with RISP. In the fourth inning, the Mets loaded the bases with nobody out but were unable to score any runs. I don’t think we’re going to see much scoring in this day game, so Under is the call here. 

This is the first time in three months that the Mets do NOT enter the day in first place. Injuries have really taken a toll on this team with the most notable absence being Jacob deGrom. But they still are one of only a handful of teams to be allowing less than 4.0 runs per game on the year. Saturday’s starter Tylor Megill has pitched quite well in his eight starts, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He did struggle in his last outing, giving up a season-high five runs (four earned), but I like him to bounce back here. The Phillies have never faced him and their offensive production is due to tail off. 

Though they are hot right now, I’m still a little lukewarm on the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win this division. But that’s a discussion for a different day. When the Phils face the Mets, typically you see very few runs scored. In 9 of the last 11 meetings, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored. That makes sense for a divisional matchup. So last night wasn’t out of the ordinary. Ranger Suarez makes his second start of the year for Philly here. The first saw him toss three scoreless innings and he didn’t give up a hit. Sounds good enough to me as the Mets average just 3.8 rpg. 8* Under Mets/Phillies

8* Under Angels/Dodgers (10:10 ET): There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. An all-lefty starting pitching matchup is another reason to not expect many runs tonight. Most hitters tend to struggle vs. lefties, especially when they are unfamiliar with them as is the case here.

We’ve got two good southpaws on the mound as well. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels. He’s allowed three runs or less in 11 of 12 starts this season. He was marvelous on July 24th at Minnesota when he came within one out of a complete game. Sandoval struck out 13 batters and allowed just one run (and one hit!) that day. He didn’t go nearly as long his last time out, but again allowed just one run vs. Oakland on July 30th. Unfortunately for him, the Angels’ offense forgot to score in what ended up being a 2-0 loss.

The Angels figure to struggle again at the plate tonight. They will face David Price. Now Price shockingly has an 0-5 TSR in his L5 starts. But the Under is still 6-1 when he pitches this year. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER. Run support has been an issue though with the team scoring just 22 runs in Price’s seven starts. The last one saw them get blanked 5-0 by the Giants, one of two times in the last six games that they’ve been shut out. The Angels just won in shutout fashion yesterday, by the way. I do expect this to be a Dodgers win, which would be helpful to the Under as it would likely mean they don’t come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Marlins/Rockies (8:40 ET): The two franchises that came into existence in 1993 square off this weekend at Coors Field. It’s the Marlins first visit here since 2019. Taking the Under at Coors may seem counterintuitive (thin air!) but the Under percentage here is actually the 4th highest in all of MLB (57.4%). Oddsmakers are keenly aware of the park’s reputation and always set the O/U line high. Miami’s offense shouldn’t scare anyone and I think we’ve got a pretty good starting pitching matchup tonight. The Rockies' last two games, one win and one loss, both stayed Under and those were here at home. 

German Marquez is someone who is clearly not bothered by the reputation of Coors Field. He’s 6-2 in home starts (10-3 TSR) with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP this year. He has a 1.53 ERA in his L7 home starts! Quite frankly, it hasn’t mattered where the All-Star has pitched in 2021, he’s doing a tremendous job leading this staff. Over his L13 starts, Marquez has posted a 2.43 ERA. Over his L8 starts, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA. Last time out, he held the Padres to two runs and four hits. He should have little difficulty shutting down a Marlins lineup that has hit just .215 in its L7 games while scoring an average of 3.1 rpg. 

Despite a scuffling lineup, Miami did just take three of four from the Mets. Now they hope Sandy Alcantara can limit the Rockies’ offense. I think he’s the perfect man for the job considering he just tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his last start. That came against the Yankees. It was the 7th time this season that Alcantara has gone 7+ innings and given up two or fewer runs. Problem is that the Marlins are just 2-5 in those games. That’s indicative of lousy run support, which is likely to be the case again tonight. Look for the two starting pitchers to take charge Friday night in what promises to be a low scoring game. 10* Under Marlins/Rockies

9* Over Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): With these teams occupying opposite ends of the AL East spectrum, it’s certainly no surprise to see first place Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the season series against last place Baltimore. The Rays did have some trouble with Seattle in their last series, losing the first two games before a 4-3 win on Wednesday. But they still come into today holding a 1.5 game lead over Boston. Meanwhile, the Orioles surrendered 23 runs in their last two games and have fallen to 31 games below .500. They’ve given up the second most runs in all of MLB this year and thus I’m on the Over in this series opener. 

Tampa Bay has certainly had no problems scoring on Baltimore pitching this season. Only once in nine games have they failed to score five runs. They’ve averaged 7.0 runs across the nine games. Two of those nine games have come against today’s Orioles’ starter, John Means. Means made his return to the rotation (after a near two month absence) against the Rays on July 20th and gave up five runs in five innings. Earlier in the year, he allowed four runs in a 9-7 loss to the Rays. Both games went Over. Means looked a lot better at Detroit last week, picking up his 1st win since May 5th. But he did allow a HR, his 7th straight start doing so. In five of those seven starts he’s allowed multiple HRs. 

Tampa Bay is very stingy at home where they allow just 3.3 rpg. But on the road, that number balloons to 4.7 rpg allowed. Luckily for them, their own scoring average jumps to 5.4 rpg away from Tropicana Field. No surprise then that the Over is 31-18-3 in all Rays’ road games. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.60 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore this year and a 6.11 ERA in his L3 starts overall. One of those was against Baltimore as he allowed six runs in 5 ⅔ IP. He was no better last time out as Boston scored five times off him in 5 IP. 9* Over Rays/Orioles

10* Under Giants/D’backs (3:40 ET): So the Giants won yesterday, 7-1, thus improving to 11-2 vs. Arizona this season. One of those two losses occurred on Tuesday, by a score of 3-1, so it’s been B2B Unders in this series. San Francisco is tied with Milwaukee and the Dodgers for the fewest number of runs allowed this season, so it’s not really a surprise to see the D’backs struggling to score runs here. Last night’s game was a little misleading (more on that in a moment) in terms of how many runs were scored, so I’ll be on the Under this afternoon. I don’t think the Giants will match yday’s offensive production. 

So last night’s game was 3-1 in the top of the 7th and it appeared as if that half inning was over when LaMonte Wade Jr struck out. However, Wade was able to reach first on a wild pitch. That wild pitch proved costly as it opened the door for the Giants to score four times before the inning was over. None of that scoring “should” have taken place and had it not, these teams would be coming off B2B low-scoring games. Last night’s game still went Under mind you. 

It’s been a bleak season for Arizona, but Thursday starter Merrill Kelly has been one of the few bright spots. Kelly had gone 5-0 during a seven-start stretch from June 21st to July 24th. That may not sound like much, but consider the D’backs have just 34 wins this season. Ten of those have come with Kelly on the bump. Last time he faced SF, Kelly held them to three runs over seven innings. Alex Wood gets the nod here for the Giants and he has won four straight decisions coming into today. He’s also 2-0 vs. Arizona this year, having allowed just four runs in 11 innings. He has 15 strikeouts in the two starts. The D’backs hit just .226 vs. lefties. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

8* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Pirates stunned the Brewers last night, winning 8-5 in 10 innings. All eight of the Pirates’ runs came in two innings. They had a five-run seventh and then put three on the board in the top of the 10th to win the game. Not only were the Bucs initially down 4-0, but they didn’t have a single hit until the seventh inning! In retrospect, the decision by Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell to pull starter Adrian Houser (who still had the no-hitter intact) looks foolish. But what really opened the door for the Pirates’ rally was an error on a ground-ball (that could have been turned into an inning-ending double play). Four more runs were scored in that inning after the error. 

Based on the fact they didn’t have a hit until the seventh and couldn’t get a runner past second base until the fifth, I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to score eight runs again this afternoon. Keep in mind this is the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB at 3.7 runs per game. On the road, that number drops to 3.4. They are facing Freddy Peralta today, which doesn’t help either. Peralta has a 2.21 ERA (2nd best in NL) and 0.84 WHIP in 19 starts for the Brew Crew and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of his last two starts. In fact, he gave up only three hits! He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 13 straight starts. In three starts this year vs. Pittsburgh, Peralta has a 2.65 ERA. 

Yesterday was only the ninth time all season that Milwaukee lost when scoring four or more runs. It will be interesting to see what they can do today against Steven Brault, who has not started a big league game this season. Brault began the year on the 60-day DL. He posted a 1.42 ERA in four rehab starts. At the end of last season, Brault was pitching pretty well and his L9 starts all went Under. I think he can keep this Brewers’ lineup, which is tied for 28th in MLB in batting average, in check. 8* Under Pirates/Brewers

8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. 

Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. 

Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays