09-23-20 |
Celtics -3 v. Heat |
Top |
109-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win.
|
09-23-20 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Pirates start Trevor Williams in this one. He is 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA. Those numbers are bad enough but what is also concerning for Williams is that he is trending the wrong direction. In his last 5 starts he has a 9.59 ERA and has allowed 11 homers in the 25 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those 5 outings. The Pirates have lost 9 of his last 10 starts and, per our computer math model, he will get pounded here. What has led to line value with this total is that recent games have stayed under the total involving these teams and Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. Those factors resulted in this total opening up at 8 runs which is far too low in our opinion. The Cubs Hendricks is a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. While he has dominated at Wrigley Field this season, Hendricks is just 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in road outings and opponents have hit .295 against him away from home. The Pirates did see him in his first start this month and that could also help the Pittsburgh bats here. The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs lately but they could surprise at home against the Cubs here with some extra momentum after yesterday's 3-2 win. Chicago was 7-3 in their last 10 prior to yesterday's loss and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 7 wins. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Williams here and we're taking advantage of the low total in this one. Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday.
|
09-22-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 214 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9PM ET There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. Our analytics say Game 3 is going to be very similar to Game 2 in terms of pace and field goal percentages which will yield another UNDER the Total win. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. Both teams shot over 45% for the game but when you aren’t playing fast and don’t get as many field goal attempts you just can’t score as many points. The Nuggets also did a much better job of keeping the Lakers off the free throw line as they limited them to just 19 attempts. Combined these two teams are on a 11-0-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER
|
09-22-20 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
1-11 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw the Marlins score 3 in the top of the first only to see the Braves answer with 4 in the bottom of the first. 7 runs after just 1 inning. Easy over, right? Nope. The game stalled out, for the most part, after that early surge and it ended up not going over the total as Atlanta went on to a 5-4 win. That sets this one up nicely as it keeps this match-up off the "radar screen" of people who play streaks with totals in MLB. The fact is the Braves are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the pitching match-up Tuesday sets this one up nicely to be a slugfest. Jose Urena, Miami's starting pitcher tonight, is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA in his career against the Braves. Also, Urena just faced Atlanta 2 weeks ago and struggled in that outing. He is now a combined 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA the past two seasons combined. He is just getting going this year as he only returned to the rotation earlier this month but in his two starts against NL East teams (lineups familiar with him) he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 9 and 1 / 3 innings. The Braves start Bryse Wilson here. He has only made 13 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level and the results are not impressive. Wilson has a 7.01 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against at the MLB level. The Marlins just saw him for 4 innings earlier this month and though Wilson survived it he was pitching in and out of jams. More of the same expected here per our computer math model but this time the Marlins do more damage at the plate. With both starters hit hard yesterday, each team used a lot of bullpen in yesterday's game which also helps the cause in terms of some potential bullpen struggles in the forecast today after these starters each make an early exit! Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-21-20 |
Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER 49 Points – New Orleans @ Las Vegas, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Many will simply look at the final scores from last week, see that the Saints put up 34 points, and just assume their offense rolled up big numbers. That’s not the case at all. In fact, their offense simply wasn’t very good in that win over Tampa. They tallied just 271 total yards and barely averaged 4.0 YPP. QB Brees looked old (he is) and struggled to throw for only 160 yards. He will now most likely be without his top target by far, WR Thomas who was injured last week. Two of New Orleans TD’s came on a pick 6 thrown by TB QB Brady and a short field after another Brady interception. The Saints defense, o the other hand, looked very solid vs what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL (Tampa). They made Brady look simply not very good and held the Bucs to just 4.8 YPP. Not a surprise as we had their defense rated very highly coming into this season after holding 6 of their final 9 opponents last year to 20 points or less in regulation. The Raiders put up 34 points last week but that was facing a Carolina defense we have pegged for near the bottom of the league. That final score was 34-30 and the 2 teams put up those numbers on 760 total yards. That means they were scoring 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained. In the Bucs – Saints game, they put up 57 points on just 581 total yards or 10.2 yards per point. Both of those games had extremely efficient numbers offensively which also has luck involved. To give you an idea, last season SF led the league at 1 point scored for every 12.9 yards gained which was worse than BOTH games we are discussing here. Both teams involved in Monday’s game scored over 30 points last week which gives us some solid value on the UNDER in this game.
|
09-21-20 |
Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
It would be nice to get a 5.5 rather than a 5 but keep in mind the under 5 is available at plus money here and that has us going to our highest level with this one. The fact is that only 5 of Tampa Bay's 20 games in the post-season have totaled more than 5 goals. Saturday's Game 1 of these Stanley Cup Finals was actually quite fortunate to even get to 5 goals as the Stars scored very late in the 2nd period. The game could have easily been just 2-1 going to the 3rd. The only thing that pushed the total to a 5 was an empty net goal and we also feel strongly that Lightning netminder Vasilevskiy will respond off the loss with a great game here! Keep in mind Lightning games have not seen many power plays ever since game two of the Islanders series. Also, the Stars have allowed an average of only 1.5 goals per game their last 6 games. The Stars have won 6 of their last 7 games and they are using defense and strong goaltending from Khudobin to do it! Look for TB to respond off a loss but Dallas is not going to allow much and this one should turn into a real grinder. Per our computer math model, it looks like goals will absolutely be at a premium in this high-stakes game two setting. Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Monday
|
09-20-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 |
Top |
103-105 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles.
|
09-20-20 |
Giants +5.5 v. Bears |
Top |
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.
|
09-19-20 |
Celtics -3 v. Heat |
Top |
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win.
|
09-19-20 |
Wake Forest +1 v. NC State |
Top |
42-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt.
|
09-18-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers -7 |
Top |
114-126 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener.
|
09-18-20 |
Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Chilly weather in Detroit this evening. That is driving this total lower. However, the wind actually will be blowing out to right field as a result of the cooler conditions and we view this as a line value opportunity with the total dropping to an 8.5 even though it may not be a surprise to see both starting pitchers get roughed up here. The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one. He is having a great season but is off a rough road start in which he allowed 3 homers. He has now given up 6 homers in his 26 innings on the road this season. While he has dominated at home this season, Plesac has a tendency to make more mistake pitches on the road and the Tigers are 7-4 in their last 11 home games and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in those 7 wins. The Tigers start Michael Fulmer here and he is having a very rough season. We expect the Indians to do plenty of damage at the plate in this one. Fulmer is winless in NINE starts this season and has a 9.27 ERA with opponents hitting .378 against him on the year! He has allowed 9 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two starts. Fulmer faced the Indians in back to back starts in August and neither went well as he was tattooed for 8 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, more of the same is expected here as Cleveland enters this game 13-7 in their last 20 road games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. In games at Detroit, the Indians have scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in 4 road games. The Tigers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the Cleveland bullpen, though great overall this season, has had some struggles over the past week and a half. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Friday.
|
09-17-20 |
Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 |
Top |
30-35 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER.
|
09-17-20 |
Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus New York Islanders, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
With this total moving from a 5.5 on Tuesday's game to a 5 on Thursday's game we have additional value with the over in this game and won't hesitate to step in. Yes we used the under (successfully) in Game 5 on Tuesday but, as we expected, the Lightning (with a 3-1 series lead) played that game very conservatively. Ultimately that led to a tight loss for the Bolts in that one and we know the last thing they want is a Game 7 with this scrappy Islanders hockey club. In other words, look for TB to come out flying in this one and try to use their skill and speed up front to take the Isles off their game. That will lead to a much higher scoring game than we saw on Tuesday. Getting the added value of having this total at 5 goals is the key and we're grabbing it! Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Thursday
|
09-17-20 |
Heat v. Celtics -2.5 |
Top |
106-101 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win.
|
09-17-20 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Our information below includes Chase Anderson as the starter. Even though Julian Merryweather is now expected to get the start, he is only working as an opener. The expectation is that Anderson is still going to get the bulk of the workload in this one. By the way, Merryweather has averaged less than 2 innings per outing. Also, for what it is worth, he has given up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work spanning his last 3 outings. As you can see, Merryweather is unlikely to go unscathed here and then Anderson comes in and gets roughed up. Here is the original write-up: They Yankees suddenly are one of the hottest lineups in baseball. New York has won 7 straight games and has averaged scoring 8.7 runs per game during this hot streak. That is even with two of those 7 wins being 7-inning games (they were part of a double-header). Certainly the Yankees bats should stay hot here as they have been crushing the Blue Jays bullpen in recent meetings and could get into that pen early tonight. That's because the Jays starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, has averaged less than 4 innings per appearance in his 7 starts this season. Anderson has a 13.50 ERA in his two starts this month and facing a red hot Yankees lineup is unlikely to help him get back on track! The Blue Jays also should contribute well to this total. Toronto has averaged a respectable 5.3 runs per game their last 10 games. The Jays will face Masahiro Tanaka in this one and he has been great in his road starts this season but actually has a 4.57 ERA in his 5 home starts on the year. The Jays have some hitters who have given Tanaka some trouble through the years and have plenty of familiarity with him. 7 of the Blue Jays last 10 games have totaled 10 or more runs and, per our computer math model, this one reaches into the double digits in runs as well. Bet the OVER in New York Yankees in early evening action Thursday.
|
09-16-20 |
A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA MLB TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET
Last night's game was an unusually low-scoring game by Coors Field standards. Based on this pitching match-up, the teams are likely to make up for it this afternoon. Perhaps last night was impacted by Oakland's travel situation as they had just been in Seattle for a double-header on Sunday. Either way, the bats can be expected to come back to life here. Oakland takes advantage of facing German Marquez as he is known for struggling in his home starts. 2.64 ERA on the road and 6.03 ERA at home this season for Marquez. An aberration? No,not at all. Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA in away games and a 6.26 ERA as a host! More struggles expected here and his counterpart, Mike Fiers, also expected to get pounded in this one. The A's are 7-2 in his starts this season but run support has certainly played a role in that. Fiers has been hit at a .277 clip and has a 5.06 ERA on the season. Those numbers, of course, include zero starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field! That said, a day game in Denver brings out the best in the Rockies lineup and Fiers will end up throwing batting practice in this one! Per our computer math model, it looks like runs will absolutely be coming in bunches in this one and we expect to see some crooked numbers (i.e. teams scoring more than 1 run per half-inning!) being put on the scoreboard early and often in this one. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Wednesday
|
09-15-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 |
Top |
104-89 |
Loss |
-102 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.
|
09-15-20 |
Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus New York Islanders, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
With this total moving from a 5 to a 5.5 we have additional value with the under in this game and won't hesitate to step in. These teams are combined 1 for 16 on the power play the last 3 games. When special teams are not producing goals in playoff action, games tend to be lower-scoring. Speaking of low-scoring games, 12 of Tampa Bay's 17 games in this post-season have totaled 5 or less goals. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been fantastic in goal for the Lightning throughout this post-season. Can the Islanders stave off elimination tonight? If they do they will turn to their typical brand of defensive-minded back-checking hockey and note that in their 12 post-season wins they have allowed an average of only 1.3 goals per game! As for the Bolts, they have allowed 3 or less goals in all but 2 of their 17 post-season games. Per our computer math model, it looks like goals will absolutely be at a premium in this elimination game setting. Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Tuesday
|
09-15-20 |
Mets v. Phillies +118 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
118 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Rick Porcello starts for the Mets here and he is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his 9 starts this season with the opposition batting .318 against him. He'll be facing the Phillies for the 3rd time already this season which won't help him and he gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings when he faced them at Citizens Bank Park last month. The Phillies enter this game off 3 straight losses but only have had one losing streak go longer than 3 games this season. In other words, odds favor Philadelphia snapping the streak tonight and this is particularly true with Jake Arrieta on the mound. With Wheeler and Howard hurt, Arrieta joins Nola as being extremely important to the staff and the veteran has stepped up. The Phillies let his last start slip away as they were up 6-3 after he exited the game. Now he faces the same Mets team he beat in the start that preceded that. Arrieta held them to 2 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 7. Now he gets them at home where he has historically pitched well since coming to the Phillies. Last season he held opponents to a .256 batting average at home and had a 5-3 record. The prior season Arrieta had a 3.64 ERA and held opponents to a .238 batting average in his home outings. Arrieta had a rare poor outing at home in his most recent start in Philly but each of his other 3 starts since late August have been solid with a total of just 6 earned runs allowed in nearly 18 innings spanning those 3 outings. More of the same here and, per our computer math model, the Phillies bats pound Porcello in this one. The result is a home blowout and that makes the home dog a value play here. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-14-20 |
Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
1-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:35 PM ET
Touki Toussaint gets the start for the Braves here. He is coming back from being optioned to Atlanta's alternate training site. That was due to all of his struggles and we don't expect Toussaint to magically bounce back as a result. The fact is Toussaint went 4-0 last season but mostly worked out of the bullpen and that unblemished record did have a blemish on it in the form of a 5.62 ERA in his 24 appearances (1 start). This season he has an even worse 7.98 ERA and that includes a 6.11 ERA over his 4 starts. Historically Toussaint has been much worse on the road in comparison to at home so one could legitimately question why the Braves are bringing him back for a road start instead of a home outing. We question it too and, per our computer math model, projections are showing that he will get crushed tonight. Computer math model projections also are anticipating a rough night for Orioles starter Jorge Lopez in this one. He is facing a red hot Braves lineup that continues to pile up the runs and scored 8 in their win at Washington yesterday. Lopez has a 6.38 ERA this season and has been consistent but not in a good way. The fact is that Lopez is trending very close to his career major league numbers and this is a guy who is 8-15 with a 5.95 ERA in his 66 MLB appearances (30 starts). We look for the Braves to stay red hot at the plate and pound him and this one gets crazy in a hurry. We get some line value because there will be a little breeze blowing in and that is part of the reason this total made an early drop from a 10.5 to a 10 and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of the line move. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday.
|
09-14-20 |
Steelers v. Giants UNDER 46 |
Top |
26-16 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 46 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. NY Giants, Monday 7PM ET The Steelers welcome the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope he can spark an offense that averaged 26.8PPG in 2018, then dropped to 27th in the league in scoring last season at 18.1PPG. Big Ben is a 15 year NFL vet and obviously knows this offense inside and out but he’s coming into this game with a short prep time and a surgery-repaired right elbow. Just how effective and crisp will he be with his young receivers? Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely Coach Tomlin is going to jeopardize the season by having him throw it a ton in the opener, especially with two new starters on the right-half of the starting O-line. We expect the Steelers to have a conservative game plan and a heavy dose of the running game with James Conner, who is coming off a down season after missing several games and facing defenses stacked to stop the run. Don’t expect the Steelers to just score a ton of points against this Giants defense that wasn’t quite as bad as some statistics show from 2019. New York was 26th in yards allowed per game but did hold opposing rushers to under 4.0 yards per rush which was 4th best in the NFL. The Giants have a new system in place with new head coach Joe Judge who comes from the Patriots organization along with a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett from Dallas. Garrett will lean on running back Saquon Barkley as he did Elliott in Dallas. Under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 10 in rushing attempts per game the past four seasons. But can Barkley have success against this Steelers ferocious defense that allowed just one 100-yards rusher last season. We are not sure we want to be Daniel Jones the second year QB for the Giants who will see plenty of pressure up front. The Steelers defensive front should have itself a field day versus the Giants O-line which starts rookie tackle Andrew Thomas and first-year Giant Cam Fleming. New York also has a new center, Nick Gates, who started in three games last season at guard. Both teams were near average in yards per point offense and below average in scoring. The Steelers were one of the slower paced teams in the league last season and the new regime in New York has emphasized a ball control approach in camp. Our math model projects just 41 total points being scored here and we couldn’t agree more.
|
09-13-20 |
Cowboys v. Rams +2.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3.
|
09-13-20 |
Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
98-111 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals
|
09-13-20 |
Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
After yesterday's 2-1 Yankees win look for the bats to come right back to life here. This is an ideal set up as each of the starting pitchers involved in this one had been struggling but now each enters this start off their best outing of the year thus far. In other words, a regression to the mean can be expected here. Look for things to quickly return to normal for the Orioles John Means and the Yankees JA Happ. Means, despite a strong start against the Mets in his last appearance, is still just 1-3 with a 6.58 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 4 outings! The Yankees crushed him for 5 earned runs in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings in his only start against them this year. New York's Happ, prior to a strong outing in his most recent start, had allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his first 5 starts this season. That included allowing 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Orioles in his lone appearance against them this season. Per our computer math model, both pitchers struggle again in this match-up and it goes soaring over the total in complete contrast to yesterday's pitchers' duel. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
09-12-20 |
Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas |
Top |
38-23 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 55 m |
Show
|
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here.
|
09-12-20 |
Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
96-119 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on:Under 215.5 Rockets vs. Lakers – We don’t like the fact that this total has dropped 227.5 in the opener of the series but will still lean towards the UNDER HERE. To score points you need to take and make shots. The league average for field goal attempts per game is 177 during the regular season and the average total points scored was 223PPG. The Field goal attempts per game are well below league average in this series with 153, 159, 161 and 164. HOUSTON DEFENSE: In the regular season the Rockets were 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.103 points per possession. In the eight Bubble games the Rockets lowered that number to 1.095PPP and in the Playoffs they are giving up just 1.100PPP. HOUSTON OFFENSE: In the regular season the Rockets were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 103.7 possessions per game. In the Playoffs the Rockets are averaging just 98.5 possessions per game which is 10th slowest of the 16 teams. Rockets offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the Playoffs too. LAKER DEFENSE: The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been nearly as good in the postseason allowing just 1.071PPP. The Lakers are also playing slower and average under 100 possessions per game in the Playoffs. LAKERS OFFENSE: The Lakers shot well above their season average in Games 2 & 3 over 55% from the field in both and still they only managed 117 and 112-points. In the most recent game, the Lakers shot 49% and put up 110-points. We feel the Lakers are going to be very deliberate here in their tempo and they’ll control the pace of this game. Bet Under here.
|
09-12-20 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and went 12 innings. Both of those factors (both teams hitting and both teams using up bullpen arms) are good signs for what to expect today. Rookie Ian Anderson goes for the Braves. He was great in his first start, then got hit some in his second start, then couldn't find the plate in his third start. This is the norm with rookies trying to find their way in their first taste of the majors and now it is another road start against a quality lineup in this one. The Nationals have averaged scoring 6.9 runs per game their last 7 games. The Braves have also been a tear at the plate and their goes back even further. Over their last 13 games, Atlanta has scored 6 or more runs in all but 3 of those games. Even taking out the two outliers (a shutout and a game in which they scored a ridiculous 29 runs!), the Braves averaged 7.5 runs per game the other dozen games. Atlanta has plenty of experience against Patrick Corbin and just crushed him last week so this is not a good match-up for the Nationals left-hander. The Braves hit Corbin hard and get to the southpaw again this time and then get into a suspect Washington bullpen. Per our computer math model, this total of only 9 runs (and some 8.5 out there) is a case of substance over form and the bats should be the story of the day in this one. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Saturday.
|
09-11-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 216 |
Top |
111-105 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 216 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 6:30 PM ET We hate betting into a number that has moved as much as this Total has but we still feel based on current pace of play, there is still enough value here to bet Under. In the last game of this series these two teams combined for 181 total points which stayed well below the number. Three of the four games in the series have ended with 217 or less points scored. The field goal attempt numbers are what stands out to us here as last game saw just 147 shots taken. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 169 FGA’s which is still below league average. Los Angeles has been stifling on defense allowing 1.03 points per possession this series and Denver continues to play slow with an average of 15.3 seconds to get a shot up every possession. The Clippers have multiple defenders to throw and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and have held him to under 20-points and less than 41% shooting in 3 of the four games thus far. Let’s not forget that Murray scored 142 combined points in just three games against the Jazz last round. The Under is now 40-18-1 the last 59 meetings between these two teams. Yes, we’ve lost some value from the opening game of this series, but tempo and pace are dictating another low scoring game here. Bet UNDER
|
09-11-20 |
Red Sox v. Rays -1.5 |
Top |
1-11 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 6:40 PM ET
Stop the presses...the Red Sox (16-29 this season) have won 2 straight games! All kidding aside it has been a very rough season for them and note that Boston is 1-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. As you can deduce from that, the longest winning streak is 3 games for the Red Sox this season. They have a chance to match that here but they won't. This one is a complete mismatch which is why the Rays are priced as a more than a $2 favorite on the money line here. The value is in the run line in what is set up perfectly to be a home blowout. The Red Sox, prior to these back to back wins, were mired in a stretch that had seen them lose 20 of 28 games. 15 of those 20 defeats came by a margin of 2 or more runs and per our computer math modeling, this one will too! Blake Snell is the Rays ace and he takes the mound off his very first loss of the season and with his team on a 3-game losing streak. There is not better time to grab an ace and Snell should dominate Boston. The Red Sox hitters that have experience against him have a combined .158 batting average with 0 homers and 2 RBI in 76 bats. That includes holding Xander Bogaerts (Boston's most feared hitter) to just 3 hits in 23 at bats for a .130 batting average! Snell went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of August before losing his first September start which was also his first loss of the season. He struck out 8 in 5 innings and his "stuff" on the mound is just fine. His counterpart tonight is Boston's Andrew Triggs and he is really more of an opener. He is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has a 9.95 ERA this season and had a 5.23 ERA in his most recent season pitched - 2018. That means what matters here most, with Triggs not working deep, is overall pitching of the Red Sox. That said, note that Boston is dead last in the majors with a 6.10 ERA on the year. This one is all Rays! Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they hammer the Red Sox pitching plus ride a strong start from Snell and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.
|
09-10-20 |
Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 54.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas City, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We think there is definitely some value on this UNDER. It currently sits at 55 points and when these two met in last year’s playoffs, the total was 50.5. We’re sure the reason the oddmakers had to set this number so much higher than last year’s total was the fact the playoff game was such a high scoring final with the Chiefs winning 51-31. This is absolutely a different situation this year. We expect the offenses to be a bit behind to start the season with a shortened training camp and no pre-season games to get in sync offensively. In their playoff match up both teams were overly efficient offensively scoring 1 point every 10 yards gained. To put that in perspective, the team that led the NFL in yards per point efficiency was San Francisco at 12.6. The average YPPT number last year in the NFL was around 15.5. If that number was applied to the total yardage in that game last year (876 yards) they would have scored 56 total points, not 81. These 2 also met in October of last season with Houston winning 31-24. The Texans ran the ball 41 times in that game attempting to keep the ball away from the KC offense. It worked in the regular season meeting and we expect a heavy dose of new RB David Johnson here vs a defense that ranked 29th last year YPC allowed. Trying to get in a shootout with KC doesn’t work. Houston found that out in the playoffs. To put this number in the season opener in perspective, Houston didn’t have a SINGLE total set this high all of last season. Kansas City had ONE total set higher than this one and that was 55.5 vs Indy in what turned out to be a 19-13 game. If we project this total onto last year’s results for both teams, in other words if every total last year was 55 for each team’s games, we would have seen 24 Unders, 10 Overs, and 3 Ties. The UNDER in KC home games in which they are favored by more than a TD is an impressive 21-4! Simply too many points in a season opener with a less than ideal situation leading up to this game. Take the UNDER.
|
09-10-20 |
Golden Knights v. Stars +150 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
150 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Dallas Stars Money Line (+) over Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 8 PM ET
There is simply no way to justify this money line being this high and we like this situation so much we are going to a top play rating in Game 3 between the Stars and Golden Knights. Vegas is simply over-valued here. Yes they won Game 2 but now Dallas is the designated home team in Game 3 and, as such, gets the last line change. The biggest key is how well the Stars have performed when off a loss here in this post-season. The last 6 times that Dallas was off a loss they have gone 5-1 - winning 83% of the time! Much has been made of the Stars struggling to score in this series but they got the early 1-0 lead in Game 1 and then played a different style the rest of the way. Basically a defensive, preventative type of game and it worked and Dallas won Sunday. But now, after Tuesday's loss, look for Dallas to turn back to their offensive firepower. The last 4 wins they have in that aforementioned 5-1 mark have seen the Stars end up with 5 goals each time! Also, speaking of struggling to score goals, Vegas had struggled prior to winning Game 3 by a final 3-0 score. The Golden Knights are a team that had scored only four goals, two into an empty net by the way, in their previous four games. That was during a time when they were being frustrated by the Canucks and a red hot goalie. As for Stars goalie Khudobin, he has been playing very well and is fully capable of another strong start just like he had in Game 1 of this series. When Khudobin enters a start off losing his prior start, he is a perfect 3-0 L3. He has not lost back to back starts since the first two games of the Flames series (and played well in those actually) and that was nearly a month ago! Khudobin and the Stars, per our computer math model, put forth a fantastic game here in Game 3. Bet the Dallas Stars on the money line in evening action Thursday.
|
09-10-20 |
Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
110-100 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Under 220.5 LA Lakers vs. Houston Rockets, 7PM ET - The Under continues to cash at a remarkable rate in the NBA Playoffs as teams have stepped up their defensive intensity and slowed their pace of play. That couldn’t be more true in this series between the Lakers and Rockets. Houston has flipped a switch and suddenly started playing defense in the restart. In the regular season the Rockets were 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.103 points per possession. In the eight Bubble games the Rockets lowered that number to 1.095PPP and in the Playoffs they are giving up just 1.057PPP. In the regular season the Rockets were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 103.7 possessions per game. In the Playoffs the Rockets are averaging just 98.7 possessions per game which is 10th slowest of the 16 teams. But it’s not all about defense as the Rockets offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the Playoffs too. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been nearly as good in the postseason allowing just 1.075PPP. The Lakers are also averaging under 100 possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Lakers shot well above their season average in Games 2 & 3 over 55% from the field in both and still only managed 117 and 112-points. Let’s not forget, the average number of field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season is 177 and these two teams have not combined for more than 164 FGA’s in any of the three games. The Under is the way to go here.
|
09-10-20 |
Phillies -104 v. Marlins |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-104 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET
The Marlins didn't just lose yesterday, they got blasted. Miami lost 29-9 at Atlanta in a game with a score that would make you think it was the Dolphins and Falcons playing in NFL rather than the Marlins and Braves in MLB. In any event, it was the 8th loss in the last 13 games for the Marlins as their early season hot run is a distant memory now. Coming into the season not much was expected from Miami and, indeed, they are starting to show their true colors. As for the Phillies, they were off yesterday, and have been making a strong surge up the same NL East standings in recent weeks and bypassing the Marlins along the way. Miami is now back home for this game but they are a horrific 2-9 in home games this season. Philadelphia is off a double-header split on Tuesday. They lost the 2nd game but entered that contest having won 12 of their past 15 games! Also, the Phillies have won 3 of their last 4 when off a loss. Philadelphia starts Jake Arrieta here. He was fantastic in his most recent start as the veteran gamer bounced right back from the worst start of his career in his prior outing. Arrieta has been solid in 3 of his 4 road outings this season and now takes on the worst home team in all of baseball. In those 3 road starts Arrieta has allowed just 6 earned runs in 17 innings while walking just 2 and striking out 12. Per our computer math model, more of the same expected here. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara went 3-8 with a 4.23 ERA in his home starts last season and got absolutely hammered in his only start in Miami so far this season. This one has all the makings of a road rout as the Marlins are still licking their wounds from yesterday's 29-9 shellacking! Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Thursday.
|
09-09-20 |
White Sox v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
8-1 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Pittburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Yesterday's starting pitchers combined to allow just 2 runs in 9 innings! However, the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs the rest of the way. The total fell just short of going over but we like the value that result is helping to give us here as we project the bullpens to again struggle and, this time, both starters struggle too! The White Sox start Dane Dunning. The rookie right-hander just made his first road start and it did not go well. Dunning gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4 and 2 / 3 innings. Overall, 2 of his 3 starts (and his only road outing) have been rough this season. The Pirates start JT Brubaker. He is also a rookie and opponents have hit .290 against him in his 4 home starts. In outings at PNC Park this season Brubaker has a 1.67 WHIP which is a bad sign for him here as he now faces a White Sox team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 contests. The Pirates have won 7 of their last 11 home games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game even though 2 of those games were just 7-inning contests. Each team got to double digits in hits yesterday and more of the same expected today with the difference this time that it will result in an over. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs! Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday.
|
09-09-20 |
Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 |
Top |
125-122 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Over 210 Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics, 6:30 PM ET - If you have followed our handicapping expertise for any length of time you know how much we like value in lines and bet numbers not teams. That is clearly the case in tonight’s game between the Raptors and Celtics. Game 1 of this series had a Total set by the oddsmakers of 217.5 which means the line has dropped a full 7.5 points over the course of five games. Granted all five have stayed below the Total but now that the number is this low, we must play Over. Average NBA games this season finished with roughly 223 points per game and Playoff games are around 220PPG. Our math model projects 218 Total points between these two teams which is what the Total was in Games 1 and 2. The Raptors are the 2nd fastest playoff team left behind only the Lakers in possessions per game and Boston is playing faster in this round than they did in the first. Both teams will get to 105 or better in this one and the game goes Over the Total.
|
09-08-20 |
Heat -3 v. Bucks |
Top |
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET
Giannis or no Giannis we are heavy on the Miami Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. I am going to start with coaching. Mike Budenholzer is clearly a great regular season and players coach but is not a tactician and isn’t great with playoff adjustments. It showed last year in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Raptors when he did not figure out a way to counter the Raptors “wall” defense against Giannis. His lack of game management has reared its ugly head again this year. I am thoroughly convinced if we flipped coaches in this series, it’s over already with the Bucks up 4-0. The NBA is about getting the matchup you can exploit, and Coach Bud just does not seem to figure it out. I am screaming at the TV for the Bucks to use whoever Tyler Herro is guarding to screen for Middleton or even Lopez to get a switch and a mismatch, but it did not happen until the final possession of OT. Herro made some big 3’s down the stretch in Game 4 but he’s a liability on defense. And why haven’t the Bucks used Brook Lopez in the post instead of having him stand in the corner for 3’s and NOT offensive rebound (7ft tall and 7 O-boards in series)? The coaching advantage for the Heat with Eric Spoelstra is glaring and unfortunately for Bucks fans, their season ends today. The Bucks got a huge jump start from Giannis in Game 4 before he went down with an injured ankle. Then Khris Middleton took over in the 3rd and OT periods but I’m not betting he can duplicate those numbers (36-points on 12 of 28 shooting). The Heat have averaged 1.140 points per possession against the Bucks which is the best overall O-efficiency numbers in this round of the Playoffs and makes the Bucks the worst defensive efficiency team in this round. Miami’s defensive numbers are obviously very good as they’ve held the Bucks offense (1.124PPP regular season) to just 1.080 points per possession. Miami has been outstanding off a SU loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and a winning margin of +7.4PPG. The Heat clearly have a matchup advantage over the Bucks as they’ve beaten them 5 of seven meetings this season and even though they had an average shooting night in Game 4, and the Bucks shot extremely well at 49%, they still almost won in OT. Jimmy Butler and company win this game rather easily and advance to face either the Celtics or Raptors.
|
09-08-20 |
Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
As football season approaches cooler weather is making its way back into the picture. However, though it is already in the northern plains and upper midwest it has not yet moved east through all of the Great Lakes region. That being said, Cleveland is still on the warm side of the weather front Tuesday and the ball should be carrying quite well in this one. The pitching match-up is ideal for an over. While it is true that neither one of these teams is known for a powerhouse lineup, that is also a key reason as to why this total has been holding in the 8.5 range this morning and that is a great value considering both pitchers are likely to get hit hard. Triston McKenzie is a rookie and this will be the first time ever he has faced a major league team for a 2nd time. Not only that, the Indians right-hander just faced the Royals last week. Though he was successful in that start, McKenzie labored in his prior start and now Kansas City takes advantage of getting a quick second look at him. The Indians also will enjoy facing another pitcher they just saw last week as Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Royals. Junis took a line drive off the forearm of his throwing arm in his most recent outing. That certainly won't help matters for a guy whom is making just his 2nd road start of this season and his 5th start overall. He went 6-10 with a 4.88 ERA in night games in 2018 and 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA in night games last season. This will be his 4th start under the lights this season . He was hit hard in his only road start this season. More of the same here. Indians are 5-1 last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those victories. The Royals have lost 7 straight games and allowed an average of 7.3 runs per game during this losing streak. . Kansas City again gives up plenty here but they give the rookie McKenzie trouble as they see him for a 2nd time in less than a week. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs! Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Tuesday
|
09-07-20 |
Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
Top |
113-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER 219 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET VALUE! This line is significantly lower than the Total in Game 2 of 224 and we prefer to put ourselves on the side of Vegas than the Public. In Game 1 the Clippers put up 120 points and took advantage of a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that is on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and shot 57% as a result. In Game 2 though the Clippers could not buy a bucket as they hit just 41% of their field goal attempts and 28% from beyond the 3-point line. Kawhi Leonard really struggled from the floor going 4 of 17, scoring just 13-points. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that. In Game 2 the Nuggets put up 110 total points and hit 45% from the field. Denver hoisted forty 3-pointers and hit 38% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. At halftime of Game 2 these two teams combined for 128 Total points and were on pace to total 256 before two horrible shooting quarters in the 3rd and 4th. With the added value and dip in the number we will be OVER here.
|
09-07-20 |
BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
55-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Brigham Young Cougars at Navy Midshipmen, Monday at 8 ET: Game #244
BYU returns much of their defense from last season and that was a unit that allowed an average of only 17 points per game over their last 5 regular season games. A lot of momentum for the Cougars to carry into this season as they wrapped up the regular season with wins in 5 of their last 6 games. The Midshipmen also return most of their top tacklers from last season as well and their defensive unit helped lead the way to an 11-2 season that saw Navy allow 17 points or less in 7 of those 11 victories. Per our computer math model, points will be tough to come by in this one as the Midshipmen lost their star QB from last season's team and face a Cougars defense that is built well to defend Navy's triple option attack. Also, BYU's offense in road games last season was held in check in 4 of the 6 games as, not including OT points, the Cougars averaged only 15.8 points per game in those 4 contests. Bet the UNDER in this Monday evening match-up.
|
09-07-20 |
Rays +111 v. Nationals |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals, Monday at 6:05 PM ET
The Rays are the top team in the American League this season and are 14-7 in road games on the year. The Nationals are enduring a post-World Series Championship season slump and are dead last in their division and an ugly 6-13 in home games this year. Washington is starting Max Scherzer in this one and he commands respect from the betting markets but that has led to value here with the Rays Charlie Morton certainly no slouch on the mound either! In fact, and a key here, Morton is trending the right direction while the same can not be said for Scherzer. The Nationals right-hander has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. In those 3 outings Scherzer has given up 12 earned runs and 5 home runs! As for Morton, he recently returned from injury and his numbers are still "off" early this season only because his first start of the season way back in July was a rough one. Morton has since pitched to a 2.45 ERA in his last 4 starts. He might only work through about 4 innings in this one but a strength of Tampa Bay is having one of the best bullpens in baseball. As for Scherzer he may not work too deep either and that's, in part, because he has a 4.42 ERA in home outings this season and our computer math models show him getting touched up a bit early on in this one. Then a sub-par Washington pen will take over after Scherzer exits. The Rays are 22-5 in their last 27 games! The Nationals are 3-11 in their last 14 games! Grab that underdog value with the much better team. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in early evening action Monday.
|
09-06-20 |
Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
109-117 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win.
|
09-06-20 |
Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 6 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Dallas Stars, Sunday at 8 PM ET
Vegas put plenty of pressure on Thatcher Demko in the series win over Vancouver but he was phenomenal between the pipes. Dallas certainly has not been getting that kind of goaltending and that means the Golden Knights offense should pot plenty of goals here. However, the Stars have been fantastic in the offensive zone throughout this post-season and will pressure Vegas in their D zone in a way they haven't been pressured in these playoffs. The Golden Knights are facing their toughest test yet and also will be without enforcer Ryan Reaves (suspended) for this game. The Stars find the open ice but the Knights do too. The result, per our computer math model, is plenty of scoring in a highly entertaining game one. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL evening action Sunday
|
09-06-20 |
Phillies +136 v. Mets |
Top |
1-14 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
Jacob deGrom is a great pitcher of course. However, so too is Aaron Nola. That being said, it is hard to ignore the Phillies as a sizable underdog with their ace on the mound especially when they are coming off a loss yesterday! Prior to yesterday's defeat Philadelphia had won 10 of 11 games while New York had lost 6 of 8 games! That said, this is a case where you get the hotter team with their ace on the mound and with the club coming off a loss plus you get a +135 return on your money. This is a situation filled with value. As strong as deGrom has been again this season, keep in mind that he has faced the Marlins for 4 straight starts. Miami has a slugging percentage of .370 on the season which ranks them 26th in the majors. By comparison, the Phillies have a .450 slugging percentage on the season which ranks them 6th out of the 30 teams in MLB. This is a big difference and in looking at his career numbers deGrom has struggled more against left-handed bats than righties. He will face a steady diet of left-handed sticks in this match-up and the right-handed bats that do step in to the batters box for Philadelphia in this one are likely to include a number of dangerous hitters like Hoskins, Realmuto, and Segura. That being said, we look for Nola to get some run support here and it shouldn't take much for him to get the win. He is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and has been stellar in 5 of his last 6 starts. In those 5 outings Nola has allowed just 4 earned runs in 36 innings. That equates to a 1.00 ERA over 5 starts and we like our chances with the staff ace as a +135 dog and having the hotter team behind him than does deGrom. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
09-05-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 221.5 |
Top |
110-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER 221.5 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET We feel the Clippers have identified a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that’s on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and look for Kawhi and company to continue to attack the Nuggets vulnerable defense. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that and we expect a much better showing in Game 2. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. In the last two regular season meetings between these two teams they combined for 235 points in each game. Denver will score more than 100 in Game 2 and The Clippers are getting to 120+ so this game goes Over rather easily.
|
09-05-20 |
Reds v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET
The set up is perfect here as these teams are off a double header yesterday. Those games totaled 6 and 7 runs respectively but keep in mind those were only 7 inning games since it was a double header. Also, all those runs yesterday were scored in the first 5 innings yesterday. We fully expect these teams to again get to at least 6 or 7 runs by the midway point of the game once again and this time, being a 9-inning game, it should easily get over the total. The Reds are starting Anthony DeSclafani here. He is off his first start since coming back from paternity leave and he was rocked for 7 runs in less than 4 innings of work. Also, the Pirates are loaded with hitters that have good history against DeSclafani. Not only high batting averages but also guys like Bell, Frazier, Moran, Newman, and Polanco have combined for 9 homers in 77 at bats against him. As you can see the Bucs hitters have a lot of experience against DeSclafani and have taken him deep often. The Reds right-hander has a 7.71 ERA this season but the only good news for him here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one! The Cincinnati sticks will be teeing off against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams in this one. He is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA on the season. Reds hitters Barnhart, Casali, Castellanos, Galvis, Votto, Winker all have had good success against Williams with high averages. Prior to yesterday's double-header (again those are shortened games!) 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games had totaled 11 or more runs. The Reds are known for a struggling bullpen. The Pirates, prior to yesterday's double-header had seen 5 of their 7 preceding games total 10 or more runs. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs as well! Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Saturday.
|
09-05-20 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 |
Top |
0-42 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242
This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee. This will be the first time that coach Rick Stockstill's team has faced an option attack in 7 years. That was a bowl game loss to Navy by a margin of 18 points. Making the situation even more troublesome for the Blue Raiders here is that they were originally game planning for two other opponents before finally becoming aware in mid-August that their first game would be against the Black Knights. In other words, why worry about preparing for an option attack if you're not expecting to face one? But now just a few weeks before the season opener you find out your team is opening the season at West Point and facing the option attack of Army! This is unlikely to go well for Stockstill's team. Middle Tennessee allowed 459 yards per game last year and that ranked them 114th out of about 130 in the nation. Now that sub-par defense has to contend with an offensive attack they are not familiar with facing. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Raiders are solid offensively but some running back transfers and on offensive linemen opted out of the season. So Middle Tennessee has been impacted (scheduling and opt outs) significantly in more ways than one heading into this season. The Blue Raiders will be facing an Army defense that returns the majority of its starters and which allowed 23 points and only 178.9 passing yards per game last season the latter of which ranked the Black Knights 5th in the nation! One final note about Army's offense is that though they have a new QB this season it is a senior, Christian Anderson. He did play in 6 games last season and started 1 and ran for over 400 yards. Anderson is a perfect fit for the Black Knights option attack. Lay the points with Army as a small home favorite in early afternoon action Saturday.
|
09-04-20 |
Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
112-97 |
Loss |
-104 |
14 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win.
|
09-04-20 |
Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-130 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 9 PM ET
Thatcher Demko has stepped in between the pipes for the Canucks in the absence of Jacob Markstrom and what a job he has done. He is the reason there is a Game 7 in this series and there is no way we're stepping in front of this Vancouver hockey club right now. They believe. They absolutely believe they can win and head to the Western Conference finals. Confidence goes a long way toward winning games and right now Demko and the Canucks have momentum and confidence on their side. Even with getting heavily outshot in each of the last two games (and really throughout this series) Vancouver is still standing because of Demko stopping 90 of 91 shots in his two starts. Per our computer math model this will be a very tight game likely decided by a single goal and so we're going to lay the price to have the +1.5 goals on our side with the Canucks in this one. Vancouver got a big boost with some late scoring in Game 6. Do not underestimate the importance of that as the Canucks now feel they can get it done in the offensive zone too. Plus, despite two capable netminders in the form of Lehner and Fleury, how confident can those guys be the way this series has turned on a dime? This Game 7 could be epic. We look for a tremendous game that could even go into OT which is why we're grabbing the goal and a half with the team that has momentum on their side too! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting a very fair price, currently in -130 range) with Vancouver is the way to play this one.
|
09-04-20 |
Marlins v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 6:40 PM ET
Pablo Lopez gets the start for the Marlins here. Not only does he have a 2.10 ERA on the season he has been particularly strong on the road where he has a 1.20 ERA this year. The Rays counter with Josh Fleming and he is undefeated with a 1.74 ERA so far this season. Opponents are hitting only .189 against Fleming. Opponents are hitting just .224 against Lopez in his road starts. In 6 starts overall this season Lopez has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them. Fleming has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in his 2 starts this season. The Marlins last 9 games have featured only 2 that totaled more than 8 runs and this game opened up with the O/U set at 8 runs. Miami's last 6 games featured one high-scoring match-up with the Rays but in the other 5 games the Marlins have scored an average of only 1.8 runs. Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last 8 games but strong pitching, rather than strong hitting, has played a key role in all the winning. The Rays only had one game of the 8 total more than 8 runs. Tampa has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of their past 8 games. Per our computer math model, another low-scoring game on tap between these Florida foes. Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Friday.
|
09-03-20 |
Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET
Thatcher Demko came up huge for the Canucks in Game 5 and that led to a 2-1 win for Vancouver. Look for another low-scoring game here as the Canucks only managed 17 shots on goal Tuesday. Vancouver simply hasn't been able to generate much offense in this series. Other than the 5-goal explosion in Game 2 of the series, the Canucks have scored a total of only 5 goals in the other 4 games in this series. At the same time though, one must respect the fact that Vancouver has held their opponents to 3 goals or less in regulation time in 12 of their 15 games in the bubble in Edmonton. With the Golden Knights also having two red hot goalies in Marc-Andre Fluery and Robin Lehner plus the fact that the simulation report is calling for another strong game between the pipes for the Caniucks netminder in this one, it looks like goals will again be at a premium in this elimination game setting. Bet the UNDER in Vegas in NHL late night action Thursday
|
09-03-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 |
Top |
97-120 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble.
|
09-03-20 |
South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 |
Top |
32-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236
This line was as high as a -15.5 but now has fallen to as low as a -13 as of Thursday morning. We're going to take advantage of this line falling below the key number of 14 and get involved with a Golden Eagles team that is primed for a blowout win here. Southern Miss finished last season poorly as they lost their 3 last games by a combined 50 points! That being said, the Eagles have been anxiously awaiting a chance to erase the bitter taste of last season's poor finish and finally it has arrived. South Alabama should prove to be the perfect "punching bag" here for Southern MIss to take out their frustrations relating to last year's poor ending. While it is true that the Jaguars return 15 starters from last year's team that may not be such a good thing as that Jags team won just 2 games last season! Look for the Golden Eagles to take advantage of a South Alabama pass defense that was a significant weakness last season. Also, the Eagles did lose 2 years ago as a home favorite against a Sun Belt opponent and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. In other words they won't make the same mistake twice and, per our computer math model, a win in the 3 TD range is expected in this one. Lay the big points with Southern Miss in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.
|
09-03-20 |
White Sox v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET
The White Sox scored just 1 run at Minnesota yesterday while the Royals were shutout at home by the Indians yesterday. That actually makes this the perfect bounce back set-up for an over today. Chicago is starting Dylan Cease and he just faced the Royals last week and walked 6 in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. Cease escaped damage in that start but the story will likely be different now that he faces them at Kansas City in this one. In fact, he has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 8 innings over two career starts at KC. On the road this season opponents are hitting .280 against Cease. Speaking of getting hit hard, Danny Duffy has allowed 5 homers in his last 4 starts and that includes 2 home runs allowed versus the White Sox and that was just last week! Chicago gets another look at him less than a week later and that is bad news for Duffy as he has struggled against the White Sox historically. Being division rivals there is a lot of familiarity for the White Sox hitters with Duffy since he has been with the Royals for his entire career and that has spanned an entire decade. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Thursday.
|
09-02-20 |
Heat v. Bucks -5 |
Top |
116-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2.
|
09-02-20 |
Mets v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 8-5 for 13 runs through SIX innings and ultimately ended up a 9-5 final. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 home games. Baltimore is likely to have little trouble with the offerings of the struggling Met Michael Wacha. In his starts in the month of August, Wacha went 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA. Though he piled up strikeouts, the problem for Wacha is that when contact has been made it has been solid contact. In other words, when he misses with his location those offerings have been crushed. Things are unlikely to improve for Wacha here as he makes his first day game start of 2020. Last season he had a 5.62 ERA in 11 day game starts and opponents hit .306 against him. The Orioles won't be the only team mashing the ball this afternoon. The Mets will take advantage of facing a struggling John Means. The Baltimore southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his five starts this season. Means has a 10.13 ERA in his 4 home starts this year and got destroyed in his only day game outing. Last season, a good one for Means, saw him allow opponents to hit just .217 against him in night starts but .274 in day game starts. In other words, this is not the spot for Means to turn it around. Per our computer math model, just like yesterday's game, there is a strong probability this game reaches the double digit mark in runs scored by the 6th inning! Bet the OVER in Baltimore in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
09-01-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
Top |
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET
After a day off Monday, these teams are back beginning a new series on Tuesday. How did August go for the Dodgers bats? How about setting a new team record with 57 homers for the month! Things are not so rosy for the Diamondbacks as they endured plenty of losing in recent weeks but look for LA's Julio Urias to help the Arizona bats come back to life here. Urias has struggled in his last two starts with those outings lasting just 5 and 2 / 3 innings and the lefty allowing 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 4 walks in those two shortened appearances. The Diamondbacks faced Urias exactly one month ago to the day so seeing him again will also be an edge for the hitters and they catch the southpaw in a downward trend as his fastball velocity is down and yet the velocity on his offspeed stuff is up. That is not the dynamic you want to present to major league hitters and until he sorts this out he needs to be faded. The good news for Urias here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one. Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games and allowed an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. The Dodgers have won 15 of 18 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. LA will be facing Alex Young of the Diamondbacks in this one. He was great in day games last season but had a 4.31 ERA in his night games compared to a 2.17 ERA in day games. That trend has continued this season for Young as he has a 5.40 ERA in evening action and now faces the best team in baseball! The Dodgers have seen Young twice out of the bullpen already this season and in his lone career start at Dodger Stadium, Young got rocked for 4 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings! Per our computer math model, more of the same for Young is on tap in this one! The Dodgers .499 slugging percentage in home games ranks among the best marks in the majors! Bet the OVER in LA Dodgers in late night action Tuesday.
|
09-01-20 |
Islanders v. Flyers +106 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
106 |
26 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) over New York Islanders, Tuesday at 7 PM ET
For the first time since a 4-game losing streak that straddled the New Year (Dec 2019-Jan 2020) the Flyers have lost back to back games. Even with the loss in Sunday's Game 4, Philadelphia is 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, #1 goalie Carter Hart will be back between the pipes for the Flyers after back-up Brian Elliott started Game 4 since it was the 2nd game of a back to back. There are no more back to backs the rest of this series and the Flyers are well aware of that. In other words, it is a game at a time approach as they look to battle back from the 3-1 series deficit but that is a positive for Philadelphia as they take it one at time knowing their young talented goalie Hart will be back between the pipes the rest of the series for as long as they can extend it. Hart was in goal for the Game 3 loss and will be ready to respond. The Flyers are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times he has been in the crease and coming off a loss in his prior start. The Islanders are 0-2 in the post-season in their first shot at eliminating a team and we look for that trend to continue here. They were up 2-0 on the Panthers in the qualifying round best of five series and then lost game 3 before closing out Florida in the 4th game. The Islanders were also up 3-0 on the Capitals in the first round best of seven series and then lost game 4 before closing out Washington in the 5th game. Per our computer math model, the Flyers will once again (just like Game 4) hold the edge in shots on goal and the edge in hits in this one. Look for that physical play to help lead the way to some great scoring chances for the Flyers and this time it leads to victory for Philly as the Islanders drop to 0-3 in this post-season when they have their first shot at a close out while Hart improves to 8-0 the last 8 times he has entered a start off a loss. Bet the Philadelphia Flyers on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-01-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216.5 |
Top |
102-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216.5 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 5:30PM ET These two rivals met in the Bubble prior to the Playoffs and Vegas set a Total of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 2. Game 1 stayed below the number yet the oddsmakers opened this number slightly higher than the opening Total for Game 1. There were a few anomalies in the opener and most glaring was the Raptors poor shooting. Toronto hit just 37% of their FG attempts and 25% (10 of 40) from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than the Raps season averages of 45.8% (FG%) and 37.5% which was the 5th best 3-Point percentage in the NBA. Toronto was 14th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.112 points per possession. In Game 1 against Boston the Raptors averaged .880 points per possession which is INSANELY low. To put that in perspective the .880PPP would be last in the NBA this season by a wide margin as Golden State was last at 1.052PPP. Boston OEFF in Game 1 was also slightly lower than their season average so expect an improvement in Game 2. It is no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. In the Bubble games the Raptors average offensive possession was just 13.7 seconds which was 6th fastest in the restart. Boston’s average offensive possession was 14.1 seconds which was 13th. The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the better in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models.
|
08-31-20 |
Stars v. Avalanche -131 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET
Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage. This is one of those cases as the Avalanche entered the post-season as absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year. However, they came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game. After responding in Game Three after dropping the first two games of this series, the Avs again have found themselves in a bounce back spot. As surprising as it is to see Colorado in this elimination game situation, there is no surprise in finding that the Avalanche have won 5 of the last 6 times when off a loss. This is still a highly talented and proud team and, while coming back from a 3-1 series deficit may be too much to ask, extending this series to a Game 6 is not too much to ask. Per our computer math model, the Avalanche "rally the troops" here and improve to 6-1 the last 7 times they have entered a game off a loss. Based on this low money line on the Avs in this one, the fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it! Bet the Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.
|
08-31-20 |
Rockets -5 v. Thunder |
Top |
100-104 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome.
|
08-31-20 |
Nationals v. Phillies -131 |
Top |
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
When a team is down 10-0 in the top of the 2nd inning and yet battles all the way back to almost win the game you know you have a team with no quit. That is the case with the Phillies. Though certainly they would have rather had the sweep and not lost yesterday's series finale with the Braves, there is no hanging of heads for this Philly team. They battled all the way back and were down 11-10 heading to the 9th inning of yesterday's 12-10 loss. Now Philadelphia takes on a struggling Nationals team and the Phillies also hold a pitching edge here. Spencer Howard is a highly touted rookie and he has gotten past a blister issue that was giving him trouble earlier this season. In his most recent start Howard allowed 1 earned run in 3 and 2 / 3 innings while striking out 5. He also kept the ball in the yard in that one and his good stuff should be on full display at home against the struggling Nationals on Monday night. Washington has not won back to back games in 3 weeks! Since August 5th the Nats are 8-15. That included losing their only 2 meetings with the Phillies. As the defending World Champs, the Nationals have had a target on their backs this season and the Phillies are a division rival that has special disdain for Washington in particular due to having former Nat Bryce Harper on their roster now. Already 2-0 against the Nationals this season, the Phillies go for more tonight as they look to add to a stretch that had seen them win 5 straight games before last night's loss. Philadelphia had also won 5 straight home games before falling just short at Citizens Bank Park last night. The Phillies will take advantage of seeing Erick Fedde for the 2nd time in a week on Monday. Fedde has a 5.14 ERA at the MLB level with opponents hitting .290 against him. The Phillies are very familiar with Fedde and he struggled against them in last week's outing. Philadelphia has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games and stay hot at the plate here per our computer math model which also is forecasting Howard to build off his most recent start and put together his most complete start at the MLB level. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Monday.
|
08-30-20 |
Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game. Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2. We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here in Game 4 after the Canucks were again shutout in Game 3. Our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 11 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 4 of their 12 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will do the same in Game 4 after falling short in Game 3. The expectation Sunday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often as this is a back to back situation and that puts pressure on the d-men in front of the goalies as they play extra minutes in a 24 hour window. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. Though it didn't work out in Game 3 (Canucks shut out) we're sure of a Game 4 response from Vancouver. That said, this one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday
|
08-30-20 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 12.5 |
Top |
13-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-30-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216 |
Top |
112-94 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 1PM ET Sunday The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. These two rivals met in the Bubble w/Total set by Vegas of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 1. Not to mention, the Bubble game finished with 222 total points which gets us the cash here. In the last eight meetings these two teams have combined for 216 or more points five times, AND the other three games stayed below 216 total points by the sum of 9-points. It’s no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. Neither of these two teams were fast in terms of pace of play during the regular season but in the Bubble games they both averaged about 3 more possessions per game, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but is. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. This game gets into the 228 range rather easily.
|
08-29-20 |
Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
35 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game. Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2. We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here though this time the total is posted at 6 goals by the odds maker. That said, we need 7 goals here but the Golden Knights have seen 6 of their 10 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks have seen 6 of their last 9 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 10 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 11 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will build on that in Game 3. However, you know the Golden Knights will respond off the Game 2 loss! The expectation Saturday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Saturday
|
08-29-20 |
Nationals -109 v. Red Sox |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Nationals Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:30 PM ET
The Nationals rolled to a 10-2 win yesterday and they offer great line value in this spot. Washington is available as a very small favorite here because Anibal Sanchez is on the mound. There is reason to believe he will be successful here as Boston is a very downtrodden team right now. They traded away a couple bullpen arms, there are rumors about some of their big name players not being around much longer, and they are simply having an awful season. Even at home the Red Sox are a horrible 4-11 this season while the Nats are a respectable 6-4 on the road this year. Also, the Red Sox starter in this one is likely to get roughed up again. Chris Mazza gets the start and he got rocked for 4 runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings in his first (and only) start this season. Mazza now has a 5.73 ERA at the MLB level and opponents are hitting .337 against him. The Nationals Sanchez has overall sub-par numbers so far this season but this is a guy whom entered this season with a combined 3.39 ERA that past two seasons combined! That is over 55 games (54 starts) and shows what Sanchez is capable of. Also, he showed signs in his last start that he is back on track for this season. Sanchez allowed just one solo homer among 5 hits in a solid 7-inning start in which that was the only run he gave up. Facing a fading Red Sox team and with his teammates bats confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday, Sanchez and the Nats roll here. Per our computer math model, a road rout expected. Bet the Washington Nationals on the money line in early evening action Saturday.
|
08-29-20 |
Magic +13.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
104-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando.
|
08-28-20 |
Braves v. Phillies -134 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Zack Wheeler has been tremendous in the starting rotation for the Phillies this season. He is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA on the season and he also had a great start against the Braves when he faced them. Wheeler allowed just 2 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 8 in 7 innings of work. Conversely, the starter for the Braves in this one may not be too happy about facing the Phillies. Robbie Erlin has allowed 4 homers in 6 and 2 / 3 innings against Philadelphia this season. Erlin is with his 3rd team in two seasons! Last year he had a 5.37 ERA with the Padres and opponents hit .312 against him. This season he started out with the Pirates and then was released. Now he is with the Braves and has a 5.14 combined ERA this season. Big starting pitching edge for the Phillies here and they are building confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Though their bullpen is still certainly not a strength, Wheeler has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his 5 starts this season so the bullpen should not be needed too much in this one. Also, Philadelphia has improved its bullpen with recent trades. Those new arms will be paying dividends as time goes on. Also, the Braves have won their last two games overall and their last two road games but that was preceded by a stretch that saw Atlanta go 2-7 in 9 road games! The Phillies have won 3 straight overall and 3 straight home games. Philadelphia is only 2 games back of the Braves in the loss column and this is a fantastic opportunity for the Phillies to gain ground on Atlanta. With Wheeler besting Erlin plus the home/road dichotomy factor, look for the Phillies to do just that tonight. Per our computer math model, a home blowout expected. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Friday.
|
08-26-20 |
Lightning -102 v. Bruins |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 8 PM ET
The Lightning got their wake up call in game one of this series after falling behind 3-0 in that game. Since then they have outscored the Bruins by a count of 6-3. In their game two overtime win by a final of 4-3, the Bolts scored 4 even strength goals while the Bruins scored just 2 even strength goals. Boston also had just 25 shots on goal while Tampa Bay had 40 shots on goal. Keep in mind the Lightning also outshot the Bruins in game one and the Bruins had a power play goal in that game as well. The point is that the Lightning have been the much better team in 5 on 5 hockey and this has been particularly true ever since the first period of game one. Tampa Bay has outshot the Bruins by 26 shots on goal starting with the second period of game one. Boston would bully the Lightning in the past but the Bolts are now built much better for playoff hockey and that showed in game two. They have more physicality now and the resiliency of Tampa Bay was on full display in the evening of this series with the game two win. The ultra impressive effort in overtime gives them a ton of momentum for this Game 3 match-up. Bet the Tampa Bay Lightning on the money line in evening action Wednesday.
|
08-26-20 |
Cubs v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
On the one hand Jonathan Schoop hit a grand slam for the Tigers last night. On the other hand, the rest of the night these two teams combined to go 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position. For the most part it was a game that lacked clutch hitting and that is why it fell just short of the O/U of 9 runs as the game ended with a total of 8 runs scored. Look for tonight's match-up, featuring two struggling starting pitchers, to make up for last night's shortfall. Certainly the Cubs should bounce back after scoring just one run last night. They'll take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer. The Tigers right hander has not lasted more than 3 innings in any of his 4 starts. Not only do the short outings bring a bad Detroit bullpen into play, Fulmer generally has been rocked by the time he exits his start. One of the four was a decent outing but in the other three Fulmer allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings. The Tigers also will be teeing off at the plate tonight! Chicago is starting Jon Lester. The veteran southpaw just can't locate his cutter in recent starts and, lacking an overpowering fastball, the inability to locate his breaking pitches is a major problem. How major? Lester has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. The Cubs have allowed at least 7 runs in each of their last 4 losses. The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 wins that were 9 inning games (teams playing 7 inning games in double headers this season). That is another reason we're expecting for a lot of runs in this one either way. Per our computer math model, the winner is tough to call in this match-up but the fact that plenty of runs will be scored is not a tough call! Look for at least 11 in this one per our computer math model. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-25-20 |
Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks have been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they have scored 3 or more goals in their next game. We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights, prior to this series, had seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks entered this series having seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 9 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 10 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks undoubtedly will make adjustments here to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2. The expectation Tuesday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to the first two games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 7.5 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Tuesday
|
08-25-20 |
Mariners v. Padres UNDER 8 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET
Chris Paddack starts for the Padres here. The right-hander has been phenomenal in his home starts. Last season Paddack went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a .188 BAA at Petco Park. This year, in his 2nd MLB season, Paddack has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 home starts and has held opponents to a .212 batting average. The Mariners, being an AL team, don't have much familiarity with him and the hitters that do are a combined 6 for 31 against Paddack in his career. Seattle starts Marco Gonzales here. The Mariners southpaw has been fantastic in 3 of his last 4 starts. Gonzales has allowed just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Padres lineup has not faced him other than Dee Gordon and he is 0 for 3 in his career against him. Big edges for the pitchers in this one. Seattle is hitting .224 this season which ranks them 26th in the majors out of 30 teams. The Padres have been hitting better and are on a 7-game winning streak but their numbers are a bit skewed too. Their 5 runs in closing out their most recent series came on just 6 hits. In the opener of that series they were held to just 4 runs. Prior to that series San Diego had a couple of 10th inning victories including one that was one on a 10th inning grand slam after they managed just 2 runs through the first 9 innings. Considering all of those factors and the lack of familiarity with Gonzales and much of the Mariners bullpen arms, the Padres will struggle at the plate here and the Mariners will struggle with Paddack as his home dominance continues. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Tuesday.
|
08-25-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 |
Top |
111-154 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise.
|
08-24-20 |
Stars v. Avalanche -143 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-143 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET
Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage. This is one of those cases as the Avalanche are absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year but came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game. They also saw goalie Philipp Grubauer suffer a leg injury and he is expected to miss some time now. That is part of what is impacting this line but Pavel Francouz now gets the call between the pipes and he was excellent this season (21-7 with a .923 save percentage). Also, in his first two starts of this post-season he has allowed a total of just 2 goals in 2 games. One of those starts was in the round robin against this Dallas team and he shut out the Stars in a 4-0 Avalanche win! Backing up Grubauer is a veteran in Michael Hutchinson so we are comfortable with the Avs goal-tending situation entering this game. The Stars are still without Ben Bishop so it has been Anton Khudobin between the pipes. He has allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of his 8 post-season appearances. He is a solid goalie but the Avalanche have scored 7 goals on 71 shots against him in this post-season (he was on the wrong end of the aforementioned 4-0 round robin game). The Avalanche have now lost 3 games in the Edmonton bubble. After the first two losses they responded with a win each time and those two victories came by a combined score of 10 to 1. The loss to the Stars in Game 1 of this series will actually prove to be a good thing for Colorado as it is the wake up call they needed to know that things will not come easy in the post-season. While only about half the players "showed up" in the assessment by their head coach in Game 1, you can expect "all hands on deck" for a very motivated Avs team that can't wait to get back on the ice to make up for Saturday's poor effort. There is excellent line value with the Avalanche here as a moderately priced favorite after the line moved from the -160 range to as low as -140 this morning. The fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it! ASA TOP PLAY 10* Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.
|
08-24-20 |
Pacers v. Heat -6 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again.
|
08-24-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 3:10 PM ET
The red hot Rays have won 13 of 15 games. The Jays got 2 runs in the top of the 8th to make it a 2nd straight 1-run win for the Rays in this series. But prior to that, 7 of the Rays last 8 wins had been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs. We are anticipating a blowout type win here that is similar to the types of wins in that 8 game stretch which had an average margin of victory of 4 runs per game. Indeed, Tampa Bay's lineup has improved as the season has gone on and they continue to get good pitching. Blake Snell gets the start here for the Rays and he is 2-0 in his 3 August starts and has held opponents to a .178 batting average this month. The left-hander is battling back from a disappointing 2019 season and showing signs of the form that saw him go 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 2018! Coincidentally Snell held opponents to a .178 batting average that season. Look for his August dominance to continue here. The Jays, prior to this series, had 11 losses on the year and 8 of those came by a multiple run margin. Toronto sends Tanner Roark to the hill for this one. The veteran right-hander is struggling this month. Roark allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his first two August starts. He then followed that up by allowing 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Roark allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) in that start but had to escape some big jams. He won't be so fortunate the way these Rays are swinging the sticks right now and they get him into trouble early and, unlike the Orioles against Roark, they will cash in on those scoring chances! The Rays are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in afternoon action Monday.
|
08-23-20 |
Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights have seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks have seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 8 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of their 9 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a handful for the Knights to deal with. In other words, both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often in this contest. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to Game 1 of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for 8 goals last night. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday
|
08-23-20 |
Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
127-129 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points!
|
08-23-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
The Red Sox team ERA of 5.89 is only ahead of one of the 30 teams in MLB! Also, the Orioles 4.89 team ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors as well! Each of these teams has struggled with their pitching this season and Boston (now in sell mode) already traded away a pair of bullpen arms to the Phillies. The starting pitching match-up here also screams "over" which is why this total is so high too. Yes a 10.5 is a big number but our computer math model projects this game ending with more than a dozen runs. The Red Sox start Zack Godley. Opponents are hitting .333 against Godley this season and he is still seeking his first win. In 5 games (4 starts) Godley has a 6.87 ERA. Last season Godley registered a 5.97 ERA and this is the part of the reason he is now with his 3rd team in 2 seasons! The fact is the Red Sox are desperate for pitching and the Orioles are ranked 5th in the majors with a .453 slugging percentage and should crush Godley and the Boston bullpen today. Baltimore is starting Wade LeBlanc in this one. The veteran lefty has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts this season and that includes his season opening effort against the Red Sox. LeBlanc has a 7.89 ERA on the season and the Red Sox have a number of hitters in their lineup who have hit him hard in their career meetings. More of the same is expected here and this one is forecast to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair with both teams turning to questionable bullpen arms early in this one after both starters get hit hard! Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-22-20 |
Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians had won 6 straight games before yesterday's 10-5 loss to the Tigers. Cleveland has averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. Neither one of these teams is known for strong production at the plate this season but the fact is that they are both trending in a positive direction in that regard. Detroit has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games and should enjoy success Saturday against a rookie making his MLB debut. Not only is this the MLB debut for Triston McKenzie, he has never pitched above the AA level in the minors so this is a big jump for him. Yesterday's total of 15 runs marked the 6th time in the Tigers last 10 games that their game totaled a dozen or more runs. Of course the fact that Detroit has a 5.99 ERA on the season (dead last in the majors) certainly factors into that and it is a weak bullpen backing up a struggling starting pitcher for this one. The Tigers send Matthew Boyd to the mound and the southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA this season. He has been having trouble with allowing too many homers and a visit to Cleveland is unlikely to help him. Boyd allowed a total of 5 homers in his 2 starts at Progressive Field last season. Per our computer math model, more of the same is on tap this evening as this one soars over the total. Bet the OVER in the Cleveland Indians game in early evening action Saturday
|
08-22-20 |
Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 |
Top |
121-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Under 226 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic, 1PM ET The Magic have done a great job controlling the tempo or pace in the first two games as it is their only option to win games against the Bucks. In the two games the combined field goal attempts for both teams is 179 and 178 which is barely above league average of 177. Let us not forget the Bucks are the fastest paced team in the league at 105.1 possessions per game while the Magic are 25th at 98.6. In this series the Magic came out in Game 1 and filled it up with 122 points on 49% shooting from the field overall, 39% from 3-point range and 95% from the stripe. In Game #2 the Bucks top rated defensive efficiency stepped up and limited the Magic to just 35% shooting from the field and 21% from beyond the arc. That was more inline with the Magic’s season stats as they were 27th in the league in team FG% at 44.3% and 23rd in offensive efficiency. In other words, the Magic will struggle to score again here and do their best to slow the tempo. Milwaukee broke out a little in Game 2 but one of the stories of all the Bubble games has been the struggles of the Bucks offense. Milwaukee was 8th best in the league in offensive efficiency this season but drop to 13th of 22 teams that played in the restart. Orlando is a top 10 defensive efficiency unit and match up well with Milwaukee. These two teams have met six times this season and only one (Game 1 when Orlando shot ridiculously well) has ended with more than 226 total points.
|
08-21-20 |
Blues -131 v. Canucks |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-131 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Friday at 9:45 PM ET
The Blues blew a 3-1 lead in losing 4-3 to the Canucks on Wednesday. Of course that was a key swing game in the series as they were tied at 2 games apiece entering that one. However, the Blues didn't win the Stanley Cup last season without plenty of resiliency and the core group of that hockey club remains in St Louis. The Blues will be ready to fight back hard in a win or go home situation in Game 6. St Louis had defensive breakdowns and, to an extent, quit skating as well after they got the 3-1 lead. They'll play the full 60 minutes in Game 6 after what happened in Game 5 and their toughness, physicality and experience will pay off for them in staving off elimination. The Canucks are talented but they're still young and, per our computer math model, this is a series that is going to go the full seven games! Lay the small price here. Bet the St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Friday.
|
08-21-20 |
Clippers -5 v. Mavs |
Top |
130-122 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A.
|
08-21-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET
The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors! Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season. Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare. Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season! Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener). Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season. His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally. In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season. The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next. Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too. Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game. Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result. Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday
|
08-20-20 |
Stars v. Flames +109 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET
It is hard enough to beat a team back to back in the playoffs let alone three straight! That is part of the reasoning here for backing the hungry dog in this spot. The Stars have won 2 straight in the series to now take a 3-2 series lead and this is a win or go home game for the Flames. We expect Calgary to respond accordingly. The Stars haven't had a 3-game winning streak since mid-February and we don't expect that to change here. Dallas wrapped up the regular season on a 6-game losing streak. Also, in the bubble in Edmonton the Stars had lost 4 of the first 6 games before scoring a couple of very tight victories in Games 4 and 5 of this series. The Flames haven't lost 3 straight games since early February and had won 14 of their last 22 games prior to losing back to back tight games to the Stars. The odds favor this series going 7 games and, per our computer math model, the Flames have high probability for an upset win here. Bet the Calgary Flames on the money line in late night action Thursday.
|
08-20-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
88-111 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here.
|
08-20-20 |
Rangers v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: San Diego Padres (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rangers have lost 4 straight and are 3-7 on the road this season. The Padres have won 3 straight and are 7-4 at home this season. San Diego is also riding the positive momentum of a huge walk-off win last night that left the Rangers stunned! After tying the game late on a homer the Rangers were able to force extra innings. They then took a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th only to watch the bullpen implode and the Padres won it on a Manny Machado grand slam in the bottom of the 10th! Couple the hot versus not factor and the clubhouse mood for each team (particularly after last night's finish) and you have a great situation to be taking a look at San Diego in this one. The Padres are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Not only because of all of the above but also the pitching factor here. Dinelson Lamet has been every bit of a young ace for the Padres. The San Diego right-hander throws plenty of heat and then keeps hitters off-balance with a devastating slider. That is a lethal combo and Lamet has a 1.59 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He has piled up 36 strikeouts in 28 and 1 / 3 innings and opponents are hitting only .152 against him. On the other hand, the Rangers Kyle Gibson is a very hittable pitcher. He has allowed opponents to hit .278 against him so far this season and has allowed high opponents BAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons (.275, .292, .298). Last season Gibson had a 5.45 ERA in night games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday.
|
08-19-20 |
Diamondbacks v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Oakland A's (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET
The A's have been one of the best teams in MLB this season but got blasted at Arizona yesterday. Now the series shifts to Oakland and it is payback time tonight. The Diamondbacks are only 5-7 on the road this season. The Athletics are 9-3 at home this season. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has pitched well early this season but, keep in mind, this has been in rather limited action. He has only made 2 road starts and last season on the road he was 6-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his road outings. The A's are starting Jesus Luzardo and he is off his worst start of the young season. We like taking talented quality pitchers off a rough start and he is now back home where the southpaw is undefeated in 4 outings (2 starts) and has compiled a 2.60 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .217 against Luzardo in his home games and he has fanned 17 in 17 innings! The A's were 52-29 at home last season so they are a combined 61-32 in home games the past two seasons combined. The Dbacks have a losing record on the road when combining last season and this season and the A's are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout in this bounce back spot and the best value is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Oakland A's -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.
|
08-19-20 |
Hurricanes +135 v. Bruins |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 4:00 PM ET
The Hurricanes have been alternating goalies in this post-season and Petr Mrazek is likely to get the start in Game 5. In our opinion he has been the better of the two goalies and James Reimer's poor decision-making that led to the Bruins first goal in Game 4 helped spark the amazing Boston comeback. Carolina was up 2-0 in the third period of Game 4 when all hell broke loose and the Bruins scored 4 straight goals in a span of under 7 minutes! The Hurricanes are now down 3-1 in the series after letting that game slip away but head coach Rod Brind'Amour has strong team chemistry with this hockey club and we know they will be ready to respond in this must win game on Wednesday. The Canes also got good news yesterday as Jordan Staal, their team captain, was able to practice. He had taken a big hit and exited Monday's game but appears fine and ready to go here for this Game 5 must win situation. Factoring all of the above as well as our computer math model and the fact we have a solid underdog price here, we're grabbing the dog in this one! Bet the Carolina Hurricanes on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
08-19-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217 |
Top |
124-105 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA Top Play 10* on: Over 217 Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets, Weds 4PM ET Game 1 between these two teams could not have been much better as had everything a basketball fan wants in a contest. Denver won by 10-points, but it took overtime and was very close throughout. Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell had a monster game with 57-points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists but it wasn’t enough to offset the 36/5/9 put up by Jamal Murray and the 29/10/3 by Jokic for Denver. Of course, for our wager here the overtime period should not be factored into our thinking and influence our Over bet. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 220 total points in regulation which is enough to cash our ticket in Game 2. Since the restart, games involving the Jazz have averaged 230 total points while the Nugget games have averaged 242-points (2 OT games have this numbers slightly inflated). In the regular season these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league, but they made up for it by being highly efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. Denver is 5th in the NBA this year in OEFF at 1.131 points per possession while Utah is 10th at 1.124PPP. Both teams shot well in Game 1 but that has been the norm in the Bubble with great sight lines and backdrops for shooters. This number is set below league average and value lies with the Over bet.
|
08-18-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
100-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win.
|
08-18-20 |
Capitals v. Islanders -115 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET
The Islanders took 3 of 4 from the Panthers in the qualifying round to eliminate Florida from the post-season in convincing fashion. In fact, even in the game they lost to the Panthers, the Islanders were the better team. This hockey club has been "in the zone" ever since they got to the bubble it seems. The Islanders are well-coached under Barry Trotz and, of course, this is the same Trotz that led the Capitals to a Stanley Cup Championship season in 2018 when they beat the Golden Knights to win it all. After not being brought back by the Caps, Trotz went to the Islanders. Now he is showing the Capitals how it is done once again and you know he is itching for the sweep here to put an exclamation point on it. We see him getting it as the Islanders have won 6 of 7 post-season games while Washington has won just 1 of 6 games under the bubble in Toronto. The Capitals are a good team and will be giving it their all once again but the Islanders continue to stifle and frustrate them. Not only has Varlamov been great between the pipes but also the Islanders held the Caps to just 20 shots on goal in regulation time of Game 3. Per our computer math model, the Isles finish off the Capitals here. Bet the New York Islanders on the money line in evening action Tuesday.
|
08-18-20 |
Phillies -120 v. Red Sox |
Top |
13-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET
The Red Sox are off a series with their most bitter rivals, the Yankees, and got swept and have now lost 8 straight games. Boston is having a rough start to the season and it won't get any easier here. While the Sox are a very down team and even their body language shows they have clubhouse issues right now, the Phillies are a rejuvenated team and coming off a welcome day off on Monday. Philadelphia has rested bullpen arms now and the team is feeling very good about themselves after sweeping the division rival Mets over the weekend. A key clutch walk-off win seemed to turn this team's fortunes around in the Mets series and Philly keeps it going on Tuesday in Boston per our computer math model. The Red Sox Zack Godley is winless with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. On the other hand, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struck out 15 in his 10 innings of work so far this season and has his sinker working very well again. Eflin has always been known to have great stuff and he seems to be rounding into form nicely for the Phillies and takes on a Red Sox team that is not that familiar with him. That is because this is an AL/NL match-up. But the Phillies lineup does have some hitters with experience (and some good results) against Godley from all his years in the National League prior to going to Boston. This is a classic case of hot versus not in terms of the trending of these two teams and we also would give the pitching edge and situational edge to the Phillies here. Per our computer math model, a road rout expected. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-17-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers OVER 230 |
Top |
110-118 |
Loss |
-102 |
29 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 230 Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers, Monday Aug 17th 9PM ET - We are extremely excited about this bet and expect an easy win by about the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. We mentioned this a few bets ago that scoring is up in the Bubble restart compared to the regular season prior to March 11th. The smaller confines offer a “shooters background” and scoring has gone up from 223 total points per game to 230PPG. In other words, we are asking for an average scoring output from these two teams in this setting when we have the 5th (Clippers) and 6th (Mavs) ranked offensive efficiency units in Bubble play squaring off. The Clippers have averaged 118PPG in the Bubble while the Mavs have averaged 123PPG. Granted, the Clippers have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers in the restart but the Mavs have the 20th out of 22 teams. The Mavs are averaging more possessions per game in the Bubble and the Clippers are 8th in the league in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game on the season. The Mavs have allowed 126 or more points in 6 of their eight Bubble games and are clearly not known for their defense. These two teams met in the restart and combined for 237 total points which will be on the lower end of today’s scoring. BET OVER!
|
08-17-20 |
Nationals v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees. He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better. That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest. Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington. Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets. However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings. Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint. Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season. He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season. Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games. Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories. Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.
|
08-17-20 |
Avalanche -1.5 v. Coyotes |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
150 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 5:30 PM ET
The Avalanche are nearly a $2.00 favorite on the money line here so the value, if you want to play Colorado (like we do!) in this one, is definitely with utilizing the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Avs, you can get a plus money return in the +150 range. We look for a dominating win from Colorado here. They outshot the Coyotes 51 to 21 in Game 3 but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-2 final. Game 2 was a 3-2 Avalanche win that easily could have ended 4-2 and Game 1 was a 3-0 Avs win. The point is that expecting this game to end up decided by a margin of 2 or more goals is certainly not expecting too much and we love the big plus money being offered with one of the best teams in the NHL looking to bounce back off a loss. Again, the Avalanche dominated that game but fell short on the scoreboard. In Monday's Game 4 it is payback time. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a fantastic return, currently in +150 range) with Colorado is the value play here.
|
08-16-20 |
Blues -124 v. Canucks |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
The Blues are the defending Stanley Cup Champions but are down 0-2 in this series. We are expecting a huge response from St Louis on Sunday night. The Blues have actually outshot the Canucks by a combined margin of 68 to 47 in the first two games of this series. The problem has been that Vancouver has actually scored 3 special teams goals in EACH game! The Blues simply must stay out of the penalty box (and be better on the penalty kill as needed) and this is a Cup winning team that certainly knows that fact. Additionally, St Louis might switch to goalie Jake Allen for this one. He looked fantastic in his lone appearance in this post-season when he faced the Stars in the round robin last week and nearly got a shutout in the eventual 2-1 shootout loss. The fact is that Blues netminder Jordan Binnington wasn't really to blame for the OT loss in Game 2 and certainly the St Louis net is in good shape whether it is Binnington or Allen between the pipes. Allen would give the Blues a spark here but they'll be "sparking" either way in our opinion. They had a great chance to win Game 2 but fell just short. Give Canucks credit as they have been playing very well and Bo Harvat has been playing fantastic hockey. However, the gritty Blues are trending the right direction and played a very strong game on Friday. With another strong game on Sunday, this time they will be rewarded for their efforts. Keep in mind the first game between these teams was tied at 2 heading to the third period and the second game went into overtime. The Blues have played better than what they have to show for it and they know it. They will simply be relentless in Game 3 here and refuse to be denied. Look for the defending Stanley Cup Champions to put it all together tonight and get right back into this series. There is excellent line value with the Blues here as a small favorite as the Canucks are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take it and grab the value...lay it! ASA TOP PLAY 10* St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Sunday.
|
08-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors! The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories. They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one. May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable. What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May. Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him! This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May. The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium. Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-15-20 |
Lightning v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: 5 goals +120 in Columbus Blue Jackets versus Tampa Bay Lightning, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET
We were hoping to see 5.5 come up on this total but it still a great value at under 5 and plus money. These teams continue to play "grudge match" games and we just don't see either team having a breakout game here. These teams even played a 5 OT marathon in Game 1 and so there have been many periods without goals throughout this series in just the first two games alone. The fact is that none of Tampa Bay's 5 games played under the bubble in Toronto have totaled more than 5 goals. The Blue Jackets, in regulation time of their games, have averaged scoring only 2.2 goals per game and are allowing just 1.7 goals per game. Both clubs are getting fantastic goaltending and Columbus (3-1 winners in Game 2) knows they must continue to force the Bolts to play their style and the Blue Jackets love the physical, tight, low-scoring games. With such a strong defensive pairing in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, look for more of the same here on Saturday. Bet the UNDER in Columbus in NHL evening action Saturday
|