Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 216.5 | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - We are simply betting the number here and have to take the value with an OVER wager in this Game 3. Everyone knows how the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with 10-straight wins but so far in this series the (gulp) Lakers have been the better overall team. While we are not getting involved in the Side of this game, we will jump in on the Total. The first two games in this series had O/U’s of 226.5 and 223. Granted, they combined for 217 and 200 total points but that will change in Game 3. The two regular season games in Los Angeles had O/U’s posted of 231.5 and 233 and the two teams combined for 238 and 220. In fact, in the last ten meetings between these two teams they have combined to score more than tonight Total eight times. The Lakers will set the tempo tonight and they prefer to play fast at home with the 3rd fastest pace of play on their home court during the regular season. We also know the Lakers will get some ‘home cooking’ from the officials and will score plenty of points from the free throw line with a stopped clock. The Lakers are 20-15-1 Over when coming off a loss this season, 29-25-1 Over against other Western Conference teams. Denver has some strong Under support on the road this season but those O/U numbers were set significantly higher during the regular season. The Nuggets road games averaged 220PPG on the year which is clearly enough to grab the cash in this one. |
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04-24-24 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 211.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2. |
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04-21-24 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 231.5 | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This number opened at 239.5 and has been steadily bet down so we will step in now with the value-bet on the Over. Let’s start with the fact that these are the two worst defenses of all the Playoff teams. The Bucks rank 19th on the season in defensive efficiency allowing 1.159-points per possession. The Pacers are worse yet ranking 24th allowing 1.211PPP and over 120PPG. Things haven’t gotten any better since the All-Star break either as the Bucks have the 17th defensive Net rating, the Pacers are 18th. We also know both teams want to play fast and get out in transition. The Pacers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA, the Bucks are 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Pacers ranked 2nd in the NBA and scored 123.3PPG. Milwaukee was 6th in OEFF and put up 119PPG. We are confident we are going to get a big game from Dame Lillard or Khris Middleton or Bobby Portis. The season series between these two teams was very high scoring with total points scored of 272, 235, 266, 247 and 260. Bet OVER here! |
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04-20-24 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 214.5 | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER. |
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04-20-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 207.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER. |
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04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 210 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The oddsmakers have over-adjusted this number with the injury status of Zion Williamson. These two teams have met 5 times this season and put-up huge numbers in each of those games. They have combined to total 222 or more points in every clash this season and most recently amassed 258 total points just 7-days ago. The five meetings this season between these two have averaged 237.5PPG. We don’t see things changing here as both look to extend their seasons. We should get an average pace of play with the Kings ranking 13th in possessions per game and the Pelicans ranking 18th. The Kings do their scoring with volume as they attempt the 6th most field goals per game this season and 3rd most 3’s. The Pelicans do their damage offensively with the 9th best FG% and the 3rd best 3PT%. Sacramento is not a great defensive team to begin with so the Pels shouldn’t have any problems putting up a big offensive number here. The Kings held the Warriors to 94-points in their last game, but Golden State literally couldn’t throw it in the ocean, shooting 41% overall and 31% from Deep. The Pelicans scored 106 but attempted 93 field goal attempts. Had the Lakers not gotten to the FT line every other possession (surprise) this could have been a much higher scoring game if the Pelicans could have gotten into a rhythm. This number is simply too low and we expect a game closer to the league average of 227.4 total points. |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET - Expected starters are Logan Webb for the Giants and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson has given up 17 hits in his 13.2 innings on the mound this season. Also he allowed 2 homers in his only road start this season. Webb also has been hit quite hard with 23 hits in 17.2 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Webb gave up 10 hits in 7 innings in his only home start this season and he was fortunate to escape some jams. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 2-6 record with a 4.08 ERA this season. The Giants bullpen has a 5.05 ERA this season. Arizona has only 3 saves in 8 save opportunities. We get a low total here because this is more of a pitchers park and the Giants have not been knocking the cover off the ball this season. However, this total is set too low per our computer math model and we step in and take advantage. The Diamondbacks have scored at least 5 runs, not including extra innings runs, in 4 of their 6 road games this season. Arizona also scored at least 4 runs in 4 of the 6 games on the 6-game homestand that followed that road trip. If this gets to 4-4 then it is at least a 5-4 final and we like the Giants to match Arizona run for run in this one. SF did wrap up their 6-game trip winning 3 of the last 5 and scoring an average of 5 runs in the final 5 games. They have been hitting a little better over their last 7 games overall, the first of those at home, and now it continues as they are back home again and in a favorable match-up. Over is the call in this one Thursday night. |
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04-17-24 | Hawks v. Bulls OVER 221.5 | Top | 116-131 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 PM ET - Let’s start on the defensive end of the court for both teams. The Hawks were bad defensively, I mean really bad, as in 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. The Bulls weren’t a whole lot better, ranking 21st allowing 1.163PPP. Atlanta is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and will try to push the tempo. The Bulls were one of the slowest teams in the league and will want to slow things down. In the 3 meetings this season these two teams combined for 231, 262 and 214 total points. The lowest scoring game of the bunch was on April 1st but we did get 176 field goal attempts in that game. In that particular game the Hawks shot 50% overall and 48% from Deep, while the Bulls struggled at 39% overall and 25% from beyond the Arc. Chicago won’t shoot that poorly again versus this Hawks D that ranks 28th in FG% D and 3PT% defense. Not to mention, the Bulls have the 9th most efficient offense over their last 5 games in the NBA averaging 1.192-points per possession. When Atlanta has been on the road this season those games have averaged 229.3PPG. Chicago home games this season have averaged 233.7PPG. We expect plenty of points in this one…BET OVER! |
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04-16-24 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Hurricanes no longer have to worry about winning the division as the Rangers wrapped that up last night. That is part of the reason Spencer Martin is getting the start in goal tonight and he is sure to be rusty. Even though Martin has had decent numbers since coming to the Hurricanes this season, he has not played since the final day of February! Yes, it is more than a month and a half for Martin. No matter how much one practices and prepares as a goalie, there is still nothing like live game action and Martin could struggle a bit in this one given the rust aspect. Speaking of struggling, Blue Jackets goalie Jet Greaves is 2-6 with a 3.55 GAA this season! He also has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 straight starts! Columbus has been eliminated for quite some time from the post-season and their record is not impressive to say the least. Part of the problem is they allow far too many goals as they are not strong defensively or in goal. We capitalize on that here as Carolina will be looking for one final tune-up before the post-season. The key here though is that the Blue Jackets are likely to give a strong effort in their home ice finale. Generally speaking they do play better on home ice and they will want to go out with a bang to wrap up their season. With nothing to lose there should be quite an emphasis on the offensive zone in this one and plenty of attacking. We do not expect a tight, defensive-minded checking style of game here as this one just does not offer that incentive for either club. The Jackets have allowed 4 goals per game on average over their last 14 games. They have scored 3.5 goals per game in the last 6 games on their home ice The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games and 7 of last 8. Carolina scored an average of 3.5 goals in those 8 games. In a rather loosely played affair, there will be plenty of scoring opportunities and both these goalies are unlikely to be sharp for the reasons we noted above. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play here. |
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04-14-24 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 217.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:40 PM ET - This might be the biggest game on the schedule today as the Wolves can win the West and home court throughout the Western Conference Playoffs. If the Suns win and the Pelicans lose they can claim the 6th spot and avoid the Play-In Tournament. With so much on the line we expect a defensive showdown between these two teams. These same two teams recently met in Phoenix on April 5th and they produced 184 total points. The pace of that game was extremely slow as the two teams combined for only 161 total field goal attempts. Minnesota scored 26 or less points in every quarter, while the Suns scored 25 or less in 3 of the four. The Suns defense has been much better of late as they have allowed 105, 108 and 107 points against the Clippers (2xs) and Kings who both average over 116PPG on the season. We can count on the T’Wolves showing up defensively as they rate the best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing just 1.088PPP. The Under is the play here. |
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04-12-24 | Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks are expected to sit nearly everyone tonight and will have a tough time scoring with the reserves playing the majority of the game. They just beat Orlando the other night and limited their starters in that game and as a team they only attempted 84 field goals. They put up 117-points as a result of 51% shooting overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Milwaukee will have a tough time scoring tonight against a Thunder team that is 6th in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just 1.126 points per possession. OKC just put up a big number against the Spurs but prior to that they had scored 113 or less in 5 of their previous six games. In fact, the Thunders net offensive rating over their last ten games ranks 13th. The Bucks defense is currently 7th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 19th worst in the league. The Bucks have been one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 15th in tempo. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 220’s tonight. |
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04-11-24 | Senators v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Senators are off a shutout loss which is certainly a rarity for them, only their 2nd of the season. The other one was recent but was followed by a game that totaled 7 goals. We look for the Senators to again respond off a rare low-scoring loss as they entered that game with 7 of 9 games against Eastern Conference foes totaling at least 7 goals. Ottawa expected to start Anton Forsberg in goal and he has struggled in each of his last 2 appearances and got pulled from his most recent start. On the season Forsberg has an unimpressive 3.36 GAA. He has an .885 save percentage and Lightning goalie Matt Tomkins has a similar unimpressive .883 save percentage this season. Tomkins getting the start here because #1 guy Andrei Vasilevskiy needs a rest and #2 goalie Jonas Johansson has been dealing with a lower-body injury. So TB is using their #3 goalie here and we are sure that the Senators will respond off the shutout loss. Ottawa will struggle, however, on the defensive end as the Lightning continue to pile up goals. Tampa Bay wants to stay sharp offensively heading into the post-season. The Lightning have scored at least 4 goals in 4 straight games. Also, TB has scored an average of 4.4 goals in their current 11-3 run. Considering Tomkins has allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 NHL appearances this season and considering that Tampa is a heavy favorite for a reason, we have this one getting to at least 4-3 and 5-3 is even more likely. Look for at least 7 once again in this one! Over is the play here. |
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04-11-24 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - Expected starters are Jon Gray for the Rangers and JP Sears for the Athletics. There is a reason this total is the biggest number on the board today (along with Mets/Braves) as it is set at 9.5 runs. Even though Oakland, surprisingly, has a low bullpen ERA early this season, their WHIP of 1.28 is a more true picture of how they have been performing. That WHIP ranks their bullpen in the middle of the pack in the majors along with the Rangers who have a 1.26 WHIP. Looks like beautiful weather for baseball in Arlington today and the hitters should enjoy a big day at the plate as both starting pitchers are struggling badly early this season. A key metric to look at with pitchers is strikeouts and both these starters are not only struggling in terms of hits allowed, they are also giving up plenty of contact. Their strikeout numbers are down (especially Sears) and, each pitcher in each of their starts, has struggled. Gray has a 6.14 ERA and Sears has an 8.68 ERA and that is over two starts each and none of these 4 outings was impressive. Although Oakland lost 6-2 yesterday, the A's did have 9 hits and this followed Oakland having scored at least 4 runs in each of their 4 road games on the season. So Oakland has been swinging decent lumber this season and Texas is known for hitting well at home. Their .293 batting average in home games ranks 4th in the majors this season. They also finished 4th in the majors last season for home batting average and, as a host they had the #1 slugging percentage (.495) in the American League last year! Texas has a .459 mark so far this season with their slugging percentage at home and that ranks 2nd in the AL. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon. |
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04-10-24 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - I’m going to trust the numbers here and not my own eyes and play Under in the Magic vs Bucks game. I sat through the Celtics/Bucks game last night and my assessment of the Bucks defense is that it’s bad. The Celtics only scored 91 points but it wasn’t because of the Bucks defense, they just missed shots they’d normally make. Boston had several uncontested dunks and wide open 3’s but shot just 40% for the game. With that said, the Magic aren’t a great shooting team at 47.7% (14th) and they hit just 35.3% of their 3-point attempts which ranks 22nd in the NBA. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Magic rank 22nd in the league at 1.136PPP. Orlando is also the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.8 possessions per game. The Bucks took a huge hit when Giannis went down last night and fortunately for them it looks like he could be back for the playoffs. That’s a big part of their offense that will be missing tonight. Even though I just ripped on their defense, they are currently 11th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 20th worst in the league. They have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 14th in tempo. With both teams fighting for the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East we expect a defensive playoff type game. Bet UNDER! |
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04-09-24 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 212.5 | Top | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This game has playoff implications for both teams as they jockey for better seeding in the Eastern Conference. New York is looking to move up or just hold on to the 4th position which would mean home court advantage in the first round. The Bulls are essentially battling the Hawk for home court in the play-in game. One thing we know for sure in this game is that it’s going to be slow paced. NY is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.3 possessions per game. The Bulls are the 2nd slowest at 96.2 possessions per game. Chicago is average in terms of shooting percentage defense as they rank 15th in overall FG% D and 17th in 3PT%. The Knicks are a poor shooting team at 46.4% (24th) and rank 14th in 3PT% at 36.6%. New York is 11th in opponents FG% shooting and 16th in 3PT% D but the Bulls are 18th offensively at 46.8% and 20th in 3PT%. So, we know neither team shoots it well, both are adequate defensively and it’s going to be a low possession game. These two teams just met on April 5th and produced 208 points on this same court. These two teams have stayed below the total in 7 of their last ten meetings. We will make a play on the Under here. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under. |
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04-07-24 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 227.5 | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 227.5 Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points in this Eastern Conference showdown between two teams jockeying for better playoff positioning. Coincidentally, this game features a pair of Wisconsin guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrece Haliburton who I actually coached against and one of my son’s played against growing up. Herro returned to the Heat’s lineup and scored 17 points, had 6 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on Friday against the Rockets. Herro is the Heat’s second leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler at just under 21PPG. Miami is on a current 5 game Over streak which includes a game against the Blazers were they put up 142-points. Today the Heat face a Pacers defense that is worse than Portland’s in terms of defensive efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. What Indiana does do well is score points with a highly efficient offense averaging 122.8PPG with an OEFF of 1.206PPP. Miami is averaging 109.9PPG over their last ten games and our math model has them scoring 115 versus this defense today. Granted the Heat have solid defensive numbers but Indiana scores on everyone including big numbers against three similar defenses lately in the Clippers, Lakers and Warriors. In two meetings this season one of these two teams has scored 140+ points. Both of those games had O/U’s set of 237.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Easy call on the OVER here. |
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04-07-24 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The first two games of this series have gone over easily and we expect the series finale to do the same. The Rays pitching staff has a 5.60 ERA on the season and the Rockies pitching staff has an 8.04 ERA this season. Coors Field continues to be a run-producing bonanza of a ballpark. Though Hudson did not allow an earned run in his first start it was a cold day at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in. Also, he was hit quite hard in that start and there were 3 unearned runs scored on him in his final frame when he got the hook. The unearned runs all came across on one play but he was truly already in trouble. Also, Hudson had a moderately high ERA each of the last two seasons with St Louis and now he has to pitch his home starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field. In his first start here this season, Hudson faces a Rays team that has already scored 15 runs in this series. The TB starter today is Ryan Pepiot and he struggled with command in his first start this season and paid for it with 6 runs allowed as he did not make it out of the 6th inning. He did pitch well in his lone start at Colorado last season as a member of the Dodgers. However, this Rockies team is swinging hot bats right now with 17 runs scored in the first two games of this series. 4 straight Rockies games - 2 here and 2 on the road - have totaled at least 14 runs so the over is a PERFECT 4-0 L4 Colorado games! Rockies have scored an average of 8 runs in the most recent 3 games. Also, in the most recent 4 games, Colorado has allowed an average of 9 runs. This total opened up at a 12 and dropped to an 11.5 and we love the value here with consideration to the above factors here in this one. Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting contrarian here as the public is all over the Under in this game, but we’ll bet Over. This number is simply too low according to our models. Examining recent road games for the Hawks they had O/U numbers of 228.5 in Dallas, 227.5 in Phoenix and 226 vs. the Lakers in L.A. In the two games against the Suns/Lakers they allowed 136 and 128 and both games went Over the number easily. In their most recent game against the Mavs, they faced one of the hottest defenses in the NBA and only managed 95 points on 40% shooting overall, 34% from the 3PT line. Denver is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.181-points per possession. Since the All-Star break they have the 3rd best EFG% in the NBA at 57%, the Hawks are 14th at 54.7%. Denver has had a few lower scoring games in recent weeks, but they came against other Western Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning. Now they face a Hawks defense that is 27th in opponents FG% defense, 28th in 3PT% D and they allow 120PPG (27th). This game goes Over the number. |
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04-06-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Expected starters are Max Fried for the Braves and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Braves and the Diamondbacks are two of the hottest hitting teams in the majors right now. But of course both Fried and Pfaadt are expected to go and get the start there. Pfaadt had a great first start but he faced a Rockies lineup that is struggling early this season. In fact most of the hitters that Colorado had in the top 6 spots in the lineup are guys that are struggling so far this season. Pfaadt did finish last year strong in the post-season but he did not look great this spring and this is still a guy who went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA last season. The Diamondbacks lineup has been hot and they face a struggling Max Fried. He had gotten hurt last season and he was a little up and down after returning. In spring training he did not look as sharp as usual this year. This carried right into his first regular season start this year as he was pulled in the 1st inning! He wants to make it right and get back on track here but that could spell trouble in this match-up. Fried is likely to be aggressive on the mound after struggling with location of pitches in his first start. That said, if he starts pounding the zone here against a solid lineup like this Arizona team has, he could get pounded. So, about these lineups...the Braves are one of the best in baseball and both these clubs are hitting above .280 so far this season. Also, Atlanta is scoring 7 runs per game and Arizona is scoring 6.4 runs per game. Not including extra inning runs, the Diamondbacks have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of 8 games. Atlanta has scored at least 4 runs in 5 of 6 games. Each team getting to 4 runs here translates to at least a 5-4 final and this total opened up at a 9.5 and dropped to a 9 and we love the value here with consideration to the above factors here in this one. Over is the call in this one Saturday evening. |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue UNDER 146.5 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 40 h 14 m | Show |
#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play. |
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04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 229.5 | Top | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 229.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Lakers, 3:40 PM ET - We have lost a little value on this Over as the number was immediately bet up from the opener, but we still feel there is enough wiggle room for an Over bet here. The Lakers are playing fast and scoring points. L.A. is the fastest paced team in the league over a 10-game span at 102.91 possessions per game. In that same time period, they have the 3rd best EFG% at 57.2% and the 7th best offensive net rating at 117.3. The Lakers are averaging 123.1PPG over the past 10 games which is the highest number in the NBA by 3 points. When we continue to evaluate each teams last 10-game stretch we find the Cavs are 27th in defensive net rating while giving up on average 112.4PPG. Cleveland recently got great news with the return of Donovan Mitchell who will immediately bolster their scoring with his 26.75PPG. The Cavs have the 8th best EFG% over the last ten games and rank 12th in overall season FG% at 48% and 16th in 3PT% for the season. The Lakers are below average in both FG% defense and 3PT% on the season. An average NBA game this season will finish with 227.4 total points, but these two offenses are going to get into the 115 to 120 range and push this game Over the total rather easily. |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
#925/926 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers Freddy Peralta and Mariners Logan Gilbert are both solid starting pitchers and they are both off a great start to begin their season. We look for a pitchers duel here and it will not stop with the starting pitching either! That's because both bullpens are off to solid starts. Don't be fooled by the Brewers bullpen 4.43 ERA as their 1.03 WHIP is one of the best in the National League early this season. The Mariners bullpen has a sparkling 2.10 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP! Runs should be hard to come by throughout this contest. The Mariners are hitting just .196 this season and they have a paltry .289 slugging percentage. The Brewers are hitting .271 and have a modest .400 slugging percentage but they are having trouble manufacturing runs. Milwaukee scored 7 runs in one game but has averaged only 3.3 runs per game in their other 4 games this season! Seattle, not including runs scored in extra innings, has averaged scoring just 1.7 runs per game in the 6 games since their season opener! The Mariners have been struggling badly at the plate and all those games were at home too! Now Seattle is beginning their first road trip of the season so things are unlikely to get any easier at the plate for their struggling lineup! Last but not least, with this being an inter-league match-up, these hitters do not have a lot of experience against these pitchers. If you like good old-fashioned pitchers duels, this one appears to have all the ingredients to be of those without a doubt. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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04-04-24 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 133-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:10 PM ET - This game will have a playoff vibe as the Rockets are fighting to get into the top 10 in the West, while the Warriors are looking to hold on to the 10th spot or move up. Since the All-Star break the Warriors are giving up 110PPG. Golden State has the 3rd best defensive Net rating in the league over a 5-game period and have held 4 of their last six foes to 100 or less points. The Warriors have slowed their pace of play considerably in recent games as they rank 18th in pace over their most recent 5-game span. The same can be said for the Rockets who averaged 99.53 possessions per game for the season but in their last 5 games that number has dipped to 97.76. Houston has the 11th best defensive Net rating over a 5-game period at 111.6. If we continue to focus on each teams last 5 games we find that both teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in Net offensive ratings too. Houston has really struggled with shooting in that same stretch of games with the 27th rated EFG% at 53.5%. The Rockets have scored 107 or less in 3 straight games and 110 or less in 4 of five. When these two teams met on this floor back in October they produced just 201 total points. We are betting these two teams don’t get into the 220’s. |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall OVER 158.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call. |
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04-03-24 | Devils v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
#67/68 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Rangers are still trying to hold off the Hurricanes for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division and the Rangers still have a shot at finishing the regular season with the most points in the league and guaranteeing home ice for the entire post-season. Also, the Devils are still mathematically alive for a post-season spot, though struggling in the last two games. Yet, even with these post-season implications a consistent factor for weeks now, both clubs continue to get involved in high-scoring games and we don't see that changing here. The Rangers are starting Igor Shesterkin in goal and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 starts. The Devils will be starting Kaapo Kahkonen or Jake Allen in goal. Kahkonen is off a strong start but those have been rare this season and he could be rusty if he gets the call here as he has not played in a week and a half. Allen has been the designated #1 since being acquired in a trade last month (Kahkonen also was a recent trade acquisition). All the transition in goal for New Jersey has not gone well as Allen is also struggling. He has allowed an average of 4 goals in his last 4 starts. 8 of 10 Rangers games since mid-March have totaled 7 or more goals. 5 of 7 Devils games - including 3 in a row - have totaled 7 or more goals. Look for at least 7 once again in this one! Over is the play here. |
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04-01-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 10 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
#927/928 ASA PLAY ON Over the total – Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - At 10 runs, this is the highest total on the board Monday but it merits the big number without a doubt. Both these teams are swinging the bats well already and neither one of the starting pitchers going today was expected to be in the rotation heading into this season. The Yankees are handing the ball to Luis Gil for this one. He was already at AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre last week but ended up getting called back up to the Yankees to be the #5 starter because of the Gerrit Cole injury! The 25-year old Gil has only made 7 MLB starts in his career and in May of 2022 had Tommy John surgery. It is hard to trust him right now and he is running into a Diamondbacks team that has been knocking the cover off the ball early this season. Arizona is scoring an average of 8 runs per game on the season thus far. The concern for the Diamondbacks here will be their starting pitcher as well. Ryne Nelson did pitch well in spring training but that certainly does not always translate to regular season success. He earned the #5 spot in the rotation but if Eduardo Rodriguez was not out with a lat injury, Nelson would likely not be in the rotation. Nelson was horrible in his home starts for the Diamondbacks last season. Nelson finished with a 2-5 record and an 8.25 ERA and opponents hit .356 against him in his home ballpark at Chase Field! He'll be facing a Yankees team that is rolling with confidence now after a 4-0 start to the season. New York scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 4 wins and that was against a tough Astros team. Both teams stay hot at the plate here and this one gets into double digits on the scoreboard. Over the total is our play. |
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04-01-24 | Nets v. Pacers OVER 227 | Top | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game tonight when the Nets square off against the Indiana Pacers. There won’t be much defense played in this game as the Nets allow the 14th most points per game in the NBA at 113.5 and the Pacers give up 120.6PPG (28th). The Pacers are last in the NBA in opponents FG% defense allowing 49.8% overall and 36.6% from the 3-point line which ranks 19th. The Pacers offense is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.3% overall and 9th best in 3PT% at 37.3%. They should put up a big number tonight against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in opponents FG% allowing 47.3% and 23rd in 3PT% allowing 37.3%. Indiana has scored 121 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and averaged over 122PPG on the season so you can bet they’ll get into the 120’s. That means the Nets need 110-points and we cash an easy Over. Even a poor offense like the Nets that ranks 22nd in Offensive Efficiency should get to that number against this porous Pacers D. Brooklyn does average 111.1PPG on the season and has put up 122 and 125 in a pair of recent games against the Wizards and Bulls. These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 221 total points, but the Nets had a horrible shooting night and just 77 field goal attempts. The Pacers made only 6 of 30 3-point attempts too (20%) which is well below their season standards. This game sets up nicely and we like the value with an OVER bet here. |
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03-31-24 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 222.5 | Top | 106-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings – 9:10 PM ET - We are not expecting many points to be scored in the NBA game as both teams are struggling to find their offenses and each has significant injuries. The Kings have stayed Under in 9 of their last ten games with the 19th worst offensive net rating over that span of games but the 5th best defensive numbers. In their last five games the Kings have played considerably slower too with a pace of 95.7 possessions per game versus their season average of 99.79. While we are on the subject of pace of play, the Jazz average 100.54 possessions per game on the season, but have dipped to 98.6 in their last ten games. Utah is also on a current Under streak with 7 of their last ten games staying below the Total. Offensively the Jazz have scored 107 or less 7 of their last ten games as a result of poor shooting with the 21st EFG% over that stretch of games. Sacramento has also had some shooting woes with the 20th worst EFG% at 52.5% in their last ten games. Both teams are right around league average in both overall FG% and 3PT% and now with the slower tempo from each we don’t see this game getting into the 220’s. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Illinois vs UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We have the 2 most efficient offenses in college basketball facing off here and we look for a high scoring game. Connecticut ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (1.27 PPP) and Illinois ranks #2 (1.26 PPP) and they’ve been even better the 2nd half of the season with both averaging 1.32 PPP since mid February (#1 and #2 nationally in that time period as well). Both average over 80 PPG and both are very balanced scoring from inside and outside so both are tough to guard. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 21 games. The Huskies have scored at least 80 points in 8 of their last 14 games and they are facing an Illinois defense that would rank as the 3rd worst defense in the Big East. Both teams protect the ball very well which will limit wasted possessions and both are among the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation which should lead to a number of extra possessions. We were on the Illinois vs Iowa State over 147 on Thursday night. That was an ISU defense that was ranked #1 nationally in efficiency and isn’t nearly as good offensively as this UConn team. They finished with 141 points (72-69 Illinois win) but did so shooting a combined 40% overall and missing 18 combined FTs! That game easily could have been in the 150’s. UConn just scored 82 points on a slow paced San Diego State team that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Illinois team that is fast paced and is barely inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Huskies will score here and while they’ve been very good defensively, we think Illinois puts up plenty of points as well as they’ve done on pretty much everyone. There are 4 defenses in the Big 10 ranked inside the top 20 nationally in efficiency (MSU, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue) and Illinois averaged 77 PPG in those 8 contests. Both teams fully capable of reach 80+ points here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue OVER 154.5 | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 40 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Gonzaga vs Purdue, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - We have two of the top offenses in the nation facing off here with Purdue ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and Gonzaga ranking 7th. As you might expect they are also 2 of the top shooting teams in the country both ranking in the top 15 and they average 85 PPG (Gonzaga) and 64 PPG on the season. This should be a fairly high possession game as the Zags like to play fast (top 90 in adjusted tempo) and Purdue, while not ranked quite as high in that metric, is fine with playing up tempo. When these 2 met back in November, Purdue won the game 73-63, but there were 73 possessions in that game so they had their chances. Just a poor shooting night for Gonzaga in general at 38% which is way below their season average of 52% which is #2 in the nation. The combined 3 point percentage in that game was also a very poor 20% (10 of 49 overall) from 2 top shooting teams (Purdue is #1 on the nation in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs offense is humming to say the least. Since mid February they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They’ve scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games and 2 of the games they did not were vs St Mary’s a top 5 defense that plays at one of the slowest rates in the country. Purdue is nearly impossible to defend with Edey controlling the middle and kicking out for 3’s if doubled and the Boilers are the top 3 point shooting team in the nation hitting almost 41%. The Zags strength is not on the defensive end ranking outside the top 40 in efficiency and even worst outside the top 170 defending the arc. This will be a keep up game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and their opponents will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Over is the call. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State OVER 145.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
#631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night. |
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03-26-24 | Bruins v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Huge game at the top of the Atlantic Division and the way these goalies are going coupled with some key players coming back for the Panthers has us liking the over here. Both Aleksander Barkov and Gustav Forsling are coming back for Florida in this one. Forsling had contributed 7 points in his last 8 games for the Panthers before being ruled out recently and Barkov is 2nd on the team in the assists and also a solid goal-scorer. He'll be back on the top line tonight and the first power play unit. As for the goalies here, Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky is winless in 4 straight and has allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 outings. Boston's Jeremy Swayman has lost 2 of his last 3 and he has allowed at least 3 goals in all 3 of those! Both teams have plenty of solid offensive production and, given the above, we expect each team gets to the 3-goal mark here. Florida is off a 4-1 win but allowed 3.6 goals in their 5 games before that. The Panthers have scored at least 3 goals in 10 of the last 13 games. The Bruins have lost B2B games so they are hungry to respond here. Prior to the 3-2 loss to the Flyers, Boston had 5 of the last 6 games total at least 6 goals and we like this one to get there as well! The Bruins and Panthers both have been solid on the power play this season and this huge game could be a bit chippy resulting in even more power plays. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-24-24 | VCU v. South Florida UNDER 143.5 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points – VCU vs South Florida, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set in the high 130’s so some solid value on the Under here. Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses in this one. VCU and USF have defenses that rank in the top 45 in eFG% and both are in the top 40 defending the arc which is key here. Both offenses rely heavily on the 3 point shot with each ranking outside the top 350 in percentage of points from inside the arc. That’s a tough spot for the offenses facing formidable 3 point defenses and we anticipate tired legs which affects jump shooting teams more than anything. VCU is playing their 6th game in 12 days (all away from home) and USF if playing their 4th game in 10 days. We wouldn’t look for either team to light it up from deep in this game. Both are poor offensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points should be minimal. VCU is a very slow paced team and they get their tempo for the most part. Especially down the stretch where they faced 2 fast paced teams in the A10 tourney (UMass & St Joes) and those 2 games ended with only 61 and 63 offensive possessions. The Rams have played 7 straight games where the total ended 140 or less and we look for another here. We like the Under in this NIT battle. |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon v. Alabama OVER 168.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
#839/840 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 168.5 Points – Alabama vs Grand Canyon, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with Bama ranking 4th nationally in possessions per game and Grand Canyon ranking 114th. The Antelopes are actually very similar offensively (tempo, PPP, eFG%) to Bama’s first round opponent College of Charleston and we know how that one turned out (Bama 109 to 96 final score). We were impressed with Grand Canyon’s offense in their NCAA opener vs St Mary’s where they put up 75 points on the Gaels who are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and a top 5 defense efficiency wise. Now they face a fast paced team that struggles defensively with the Crimson Tide ranking 117th in defensive efficiency, 141st in eFG% allowed, and 353rd in scoring defense giving up 82 PPG. We look for GC to have success on offense tonight. On the other end, Bama is just an offensive juggernaut. They rank 3rd nationally in efficiency, 5th in FG’s made per game, 3rd in 3 pointers made per game and #1 nationally in scoring putting up 91 PPG. With a great offense and suspect defense, Bama’s games have averaged 172 total points this season. Here’s a crazy stat…In Alabama’s last 10 games, at least 1 team (Bama or their opponent) has scored 100+ points and the 2 prior to that one of the teams scored at least 99 points. Thus in 9 of their last 12 games, someone has scored at least 99 points. These 2 have combined to go 43-22-1 to the Over this season. This is a high total for a reason. Over is the play. |
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03-24-24 | Thunder v. Bucks OVER 233 | Top | 93-118 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We have two of the best offensive teams in the NBA squaring off when the Thunder face the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive net rating since the All-Star break, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams average over 120PPG which ranks top 5 in the league. The Thunder are the 2nd best FG% team in the league at 50%, the Bucks are 7th at 49.1%. Milwaukee is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9%. OKC is 1st at 39.2% from Deep. Both teams don’t need a ton of possessions to score either as they are highly efficient at 1.197-points per possession (Milwaukee) and 1.202PPP for OKC. With both teams having a great shot at getting to 120 each we predict and easy OVER here. |
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03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State UNDER 129 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
#799/800 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Washington State vs Iowa State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Two of the very best defenses in the nation squaring off in this game. Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Wazzou ranks 22nd. ISU allows just 61 PPG and that was playing in a Big 12 conference with 5 teams ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Washington State gives up 66 PPG and they just allowed 61 points to a Drake offense that was rolling coming into the game averaging 84 PPG over their previous 11 games entering last night. The Cougars held a very potent Colorado offense (25th in offensive efficiency) to 58 points in the Pac 12 tourney the their other conference tourney game they limited fast paced Stanford to 62 points. The best offense by far in the Pac 12 was Arizona (88PPG – 3rd most nationally) and in their 2 games vs the Cats they held them 15 points below their season average (74 & 73 points in 2 games vs WSU). This should be a very slow paced game as well with Washington State ranking 312th in adjusted tempo and ISU is middle of the pack in that stat but can play either way, fast or slow. The Cyclones have stepped it up defensively late in the year holding their last 9 opponents to 65 points or less. In the Big 12 tourney they held KSU to 57 points, Baylor (one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation & scored 92 in their NCAA opening game) to 62 points and then stopped Houston in their tracks with just 41 points. Neither offense shoots many 3’s both ranking outside the top 290 in percentage of points from deep, so this one will mainly be played inside the arc. With the winner heading to the Sweet 16, both teams lean on their strength here which is defense. Under is the call. |
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03-22-24 | Colorado v. Florida OVER 158.5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – Colorado vs Florida, Friday at 4 PM ET - This one is going to be a track meet. The Gators rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 10th nationally in offensive possessions per game. While the Buffs aren’t as fast, they aren’t slow either. They are 143rd in possessions per game and in the top 100 in average possession length on offense so they get shots off fairly quickly. Offense is the strength of both teams with Florida ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and Colorado coming in at 27th. They also rank 7th (Florida at 85 PPG) and 38th (Colorado at 79 PPG) in scoring. When they do miss shots, both the Gators and Buffs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the country so look for a number of 2nd chances on both ends. They both get to the FT line at a decent rate so we should see plenty of FT attempts as well. Neither defense is great a limiting opponents scoring with Florida giving up 78 PPG (323rd nationally) and Colorado allowing 71 PPG (187th). They also both rank outside the top 155 in opponent FG%. The Gators and their opponents have reached at least 155 points in 12 of their last 16 games. The team in the Pac 12 that is most similar to Florida in regards to pace is Arizona. They are almost identical. They are also very close offensive efficiency wise. In their 2 games vs Zona, the Buffs gave up 99 & 97 points and the 2 teams combined for 147 points and 178 points. In their first meeting Arizona did their job offensively but CU scored only 50 points on a terrible 0.69 PPP. The Buffs were without 2 of their best players in that game but when at full strength in the 2nd game the points were abundant. These teams have combined for a 42-27-1 to the Over this year and we project both to get into the 80’s. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic OVER 142.5 | 77-65 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
#763/764 ASA PLAY ON Over 142.5 Points – Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic, Friday at 12:15 PM ET - Both offenses are superior to the opposing defenses in this game. Both offenses rank inside the top 25 nationally in efficiency per Bart Torvik analytics, while both defenses rank outside the top 60 in efficiency (61st for NW and 133rd for FAU). NW is coming off a game last Friday in which they only scored 61 points on Wisconsin making only 38% of their shots on 0.95 PPP which is way below their season averages. They looked a little worn down to us but now playing just their 2nd game in 13 days we expect a better effort from an offense that averaged 74 PPG this season and ranks 8th in the nation hitting 39% of their triples. Wildcat head coach Chris Collins mentioned last week that he has been very impressed with his offense this season. head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. “This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” They should have success vs an FAU defense that hasn’t been very good this year allowing 74 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Owls play fast and are very good offensively averaging 83 PPG and they rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The weakness of Northwestern’s team is absolutely their defense ranking 248th in eFG% allowed and outside the top 300 defending the arc. We expect both teams to have success from 3 point land and in a game that is supposed to be close, FT’s could play a big role down the stretch with fouling late a solid possibility. We like both teams to reach the 70’s in this game and we’ll grab the Over. |
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03-20-24 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 216.5 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points tonight in the Western Conference game between the Clippers and Trailblazers. Examining recent games between these two teams we find the two games this season finished with 234 and 259 total points, both easy Overs. Going back to last season these two teams have gone 4-1 to the Over when playing each other and all 5 have finished with more than 217 total points. We expect the Clippers to bounce back after a pair of horrible offensive outings against the Hawks and Pelicans. Tonight, they face a Blazers defense that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.176-points per possession and 115.9PPG. The Clippers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers on the season at 1.196PPP. Portland has allowed 118 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and has the 5th worst FG% defense in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Blazers have been shooting much better over their last five games and a large part of that is due to the improved play of center Deandre Ayton who is averaging 26.8PPG in his last 6 games. The Clippers sport the 7th best EFG% in the league at 56.6% and they should enjoy a great shooting night versus this Blazers defense. With more tickets and public money coming in on the Under, the line has ticked up which is a tell for Over bettors. |
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03-19-24 | Blackhawks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 6* OVER 5.5 Goals - Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one since the Blackhawks got embarrassed on home ice by these Kings less than a week ago by a 5-0 count. Chicago, though that game was a rare exception, has been scoring better of late. The Blackhawks have averaged scoring 5 goals per game in their other 5 games the last two weeks! Chicago took advantage of facing some weaker competition in some of those games but still it builds confidence for this team and now they are out for revenge and playing with more confidence in the offensive zone. The issue for the Blackhawks is their defensive play and netminding leaves a lot to be desired. If Soderblom is between the pipes, he is 4-19-1 with a 4.02 GAA this season! If Mrazek is between the pipes he has been solid on home ice but has struggled badly away from home with a 3-15-1 record and a 3.70 GAA this season on the road! So, even though we anticipate a solid effort from Chicago in the offensive zone tonight, we also look for them to continue to struggle in terms of goals conceded. Los Angeles is off a low-scoring loss and the the last 4 times LA was off a defeat they responded with a win each time and scored an average of 4 goals in those victories. The Kings do have an anticipated tougher game tomorrow versus Minnesota and, since they also beat the Blackhawks 5-0 last week, don't be surprised if the defensive intensity of LA is not at its best tonight. That being said, we look for Chicago to score multiple goals but struggle badly to stop the Kings as Los Angeles has another big game on offense. Look for at least 6 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-18-24 | Hawks v. Lakers OVER 225 | Top | 105-136 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Atlanta Hawks at LA Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off a solid 110-103 win over the Clippers last night in this building and we expect them to have another good shooting night against the Lakers. The Hawks hit 17 of 34 3-point attempts and led by 26-points after the 3Q. The Lakers aren’t as good defensively as the Clippers and certainly don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 25th in 3PT% defense. The Lakers give up on average 117.6PPG which is the 23rd highest number in the NBA. The Hawks just played in Utah a few nights ago and the O/U was 223.5 and the teams combined for 246 total points. The Jazz are similar to the Lakers in terms of offensive efficiency and pace of play. The Lakers are better defensively but will likely be without their best interior defender Anthony Davis tonight. The Lakers are going to put up points of their own tonight against this Hawks defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.196-points per possession and 120.8PPG. Los Angeles has the 3rd best team FG% in the NBA at 49.9% and the Hawks allow 49.3% which is the 28th worst number in the league. LA should also connect from Deep against this Atlanta defense that allows opponents to hit 38.3% of their 3PT attempts which is 28th in the NBA. LA has scored 120+ in 4 of their last five games and allowed 120+ in 4 of five. Easy OVER call here. |
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03-15-24 | Baylor v. Iowa State OVER 134 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#853/854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134 Points – Baylor vs Iowa State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This total is much too low according to our power ratings. We have this total set at 140 so as of this writing we’re getting 6 full points of value on the Over. These teams met once this season and that total was set at 142 and while they went Under that number, they still totaled 138 points in that game. The 2 teams combined to shoot just 42% in that game and we expect better shooting numbers tonight. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in the nation averaging 81 PPG along with ranking 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 5th in 3 point percentage hitting 40% of their triples on the season. They are facing an ISU defense that is very good but they aren’t great defending the arc ranking 76th nationally. In their only meeting, the Bears hit 12 triples and we’d expect another solid effort from deep from this outstanding offense. The Bears also get to the FT line more than anyone in the Big 12 and ISU fouls a lot. On the other side, ISU averages 71 PPG on the season and while they aren’t as dynamic offensively as Baylor, they do rank in the top 70 nationally in efficiency. They’ll also be facing a Baylor defense that simply isn’t very good this year. They allow over 70 PPG and rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point FG% allowed. These teams both played low scoring games yesterday which is keeping this total low. ISU faced Kansas State who is much worse offensively than Baylor (KSU 12th in offensive efficiency in the Big 12) and much better defensively than the Bears (KSU 4th in defensive efficiency) yet the total in that game was 135 which is higher than this number? ISU & KSU totaled 133 points in that game with the Cyclones scoring 76 points vs a really good defense despite making only 1 of 14 three point shots. Baylor beat Cincinnati 68-56 with the teams combining to barely shoot 40% and just 24% from deep. We really like the value with this low total and our play is Over. |
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03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
ASA BET on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We are well aware of the current Under streak in the NBA and how the officials have changed how they call games, which has had a big impact on Totals. But there is no way this O/U number should be this low. These same two teams met just over a month ago and the number set on that game was 234.5. In other words, the oddsmakers are suggesting a 17-point swing to the Under in this game? In the most recent meeting these two teams played at a slower than normal pace and attempted just 116 field goals and the game finished with 223 total points. In the two other clashes this season they produced Totals of 206 (174 FGA’s) and 222 (180 FGA’s). L.A. is the 11th highest scoring team in the NBA at 117PPG, the Pelicans are 12th at 116.1. Both teams have strong Under records this season, but this number is simply set too low. Games involving the Clippers this season have averaged 229.7PPG. Games that have featured the Pelicans have averaged 227.3PPG. Even with the current Under streak in the NBA games are still averaging 229PPG since the All-Star break. In LA.’s last 21 games, only 3 have finished with less than 215 total points. Going back to Christmas, the Pelicans have played 35 games and 25 of those finished with more than 215 Total points. This is bad number and we will bet the Over! |
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03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Wisconsin vs Northwestern, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is light by about 3 points according to our power ratings so we’ll grab the value on the Over. While both teams are slow paced, the offenses on each side are much better than the defenses. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and after their home finale vs Minnesota in which the Wildcats put up 90 points, head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” The Cats are averaging 76 PPG in league playing ranking 4th in the Big 10. Wisconsin is average 75 PPG in conference play ranking 7th. Wisconsin & NW have had very solid defensive teams in the recent past but that really hasn’t been the case this season with both ranking outside the top 230 nationally in eFG% allowed. They are both allowing more than 72 PPG in conference play after they both allowed less than 67 PPG in league play last season. NW’s offense thrives on the 3 point shot with almost 35% of their points in conference play coming from deep (2nd most) and they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from deep. The Badgers found their offensive rhythm here yesterday putting up 89 points Maryland who came into that game #1 in defensive efficiency in Big 10 play. While we don’t expect UW to shoot as well as they did yesterday, they should still find plenty of success vs a NW defense that ranks 11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. Northwestern’s conference games this year have averaged 149 total points and Wisconsin’s have averaged 147 total points. We like this game to get into the 140’s so Over is the play. |
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03-14-24 | Ohio State v. Iowa UNDER 154 | Top | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points – Ohio State vs Iowa, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - OSU has turned the corner and they are playing great basketball since they fired their head coach Holtmann. Since firing Holtmann the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6 and they’ve gotten in done in the defensive end. The game after Holtmann was let go they held the Big 10s top scoring team, Purdue, to just 69 points (Boilers average 84 PPG). OSU has since held their last 4 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP and they’ve held those 4 opponents to less than 60 PPG. The Bucks offense isn’t great ranking in the lower half of the Big 10 in scoring, FG% and 3 point FG% so interim coach Diebler has really stressed working on the defensive end and it’s paid off. Iowa likes to play up tempo but you can bet OSU will slow this game down. In their only meeting this season in Iowa City, the Buckeyes lost a close one 79-77 and there were only 65 possessions in that game. Both teams eclipsed their season offensive efficiency averages in that game with Iowa averaging 1.22 PPP (they average 1.12 in Big 10 play) and OSU averaging 1.18 PPG in that game (they average 1.08 in conference play). Even with those numbers the game only reach 156 total points. Since mid February, both of these defenses have improved dramatically with OSU ranking 15th nationally in PPP allowed (61st overall on the season) and Iowa ranking 79th (147th overall on the season). The Hawks offensive numbers drop off dramatically on the road where they average 11 PPG fewer than at home and OSU puts up 5 PPG fewer on the road compared to at home. This is an Under play on Thursday. |
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03-13-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 126 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - These are the #1 and #2 teams in the Big 10 in regards to defensive efficiency. They both rank in the top 12 nationally in that statistic with both allowing less than 0.95 adjusted PPP. Both defenses also make opposing offenses really work for shots, opponents average a shot every 18 seconds, putting them both in the top 40 in that category. While we have the 2 best defensive teams in the Big 10, we also have the 2 worst offensive teams squaring off in this one. They rank 13th and 14th in conference scoring and both rank outside the top 325 in FG%. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc in this one as Rutgers ranks 346th nationally making just 29% of their triples and the Terps rank 352nd making only 28%. In their 2 meetings this season they combined to make only 13 combined 3’s and shot just 21% combined from deep. These teams met twice this season and totaled 109 points both times. Both games were low possessions games (60 & 65) and we expect the same tempo in this one. Rutgers & Maryland have combined to play 62 games this season with 40 of those going Under the total. They’ve also gone Under their last 6 meetings and not one of those 6 games reached 130 points. Playing in an unfamiliar NBA Arena (Target Center in Minneapolis) we would suggest their shooting numbers may end up worse than they normally are. Under is the play. |
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03-13-24 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech OVER 152.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#645/646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points – Virginia Tech vs Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - These teams met twice this season and totaled 158 and 151 points in those 2 games so we’re looking for this one to get into the 150’s again at worst. FSU is the fastest paced team in the ACC and they land in the top 30 nationally in adjusted tempo. VT is middle of the pack in tempo both in the ACC and nationally so they are not a slow paced team. The Hokies played 6 ACC games vs teams ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and 4 of those games reached the 150’s or higher. The only 2 that did not were their 2 games vs Louisville (totaled 143 & 144) and in those games the Cards, who rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency & eFG%, didn’t do their part offensively not hitting 70 in either game. We don’t anticipate that being a problem for FSU who ranks 4th in the ACC averaging 77 PPG in league play. Va Tech’s offense ranks #1 I the conference in eFG% and since February 1st the rank 19th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hokies lead the ACC in FG% as well and FSU is 4th in that category. Both offenses are better than the opposing defenses as FSU & VT rank 12th and 13th in eFG% allowed in ACC play and 9th and 13th in PPG allowed. Because both have solid offenses and shaky defenses, it wasn’t surprising to see these 2 combine to hit 47% of their shots in the first 2 meetings. We expect similar shooting results here. 4 of the last 5 in this series have gone Over the total and we look for another high scoring game on Wednesday. |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 94-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - These two teams met in Milwaukee in mid-January and produced 285 total points in OT. The oddsmakers had set an O/U number of 247 on that game. Both teams shot 52% overall, and 41% (Kings), 47% (Bucks) from beyond the arc which are also well above season each team’s season average. That seems to be a reoccurring trend when these two teams get together as they’ve gone Over the Total in 10 straight meetings. The last seven meetings have averaged 257 points scored. The Bucks defense has certainly improved since Doc Rivers took over but they have given up 125, 123 and 117 in their last three games against similar offensive teams to the Kings. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.195PPP and play at the 4th highest rate in the league. The Kings are 12th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game and have the 13th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.175-points per possession. Milwaukee is the 8th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 37.6% and the Kings are last in defending the 3PT line allowing 39.8%. The Kings rely on volume shooting to score with the 5th highest FG attempts per game and the 10th best shooting percentage. Granted the NBA has been on an Under trend but we like Over here. |
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03-12-24 | Pacers v. Thunder OVER 240.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 240.5 Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We loved this bet on the opening number of 236 before it was immediately bet up to the current number of 240.5. There is still some value in this number, and we expect a game in the mid-to-upper 240’s. We have the Pacers who rank 2nd in pace of play at 102.1 possessions per game and are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.206-points per possession. OKC is the 3rd most efficient offense in the league at 1.204PPP and rank 11th in tempo. Indiana has the best overall team field goal percentage in the league at 50.4% and rank 6th in 3PT percentage. The Thunder are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA at 50.1% overall and #1 in 3PT% at 39.4%. Both teams average over 120PPG offensively ranking 1st and 3rd in scoring. This will be a high possession game with two great shooting teams that should get over this number. |
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03-11-24 | Raptors v. Nuggets UNDER 232.5 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 231.5 Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting against the move on this game and will grab the added value with an Under wager. This Total opened at 226 and has climbed to 231.5 where it currently sits. Denver is making a run at the #1 seed in the West with a current 8-1 SU run. They are coming off a blowout win over Utah in which they scored 142 points. After tonight they go on the road, so we are betting they will try to conserve some energy tonight before the trip and limit starters. We also expect them to play much slower tonight as they have a huge size advantage over the Raptors with Jokic, Gordon and Porter Jr. The Raptors are short a few starters tonight and it’s showed in recent games with 3-straight losses to the Pelicans, Suns and Blazers. Toronto shoots 47.5% as a team (15th) and 35.5% from beyond the Arc (24th). Toronto has the 20th Net Offensive Rating in the NBA on the season and are averaging just 109PPG over their last 5-games. The Nuggets have the 10th best overall defense on the season when it comes to Net Ratings but since the All-Star Break they have been even better. We also like the fact that the Raptors have played at a much slower pace in their last 3-games, well below their season average. This game fits the current Under narrative in the NBA. |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's UNDER 135.5 | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
#871/872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Santa Clara vs St Mary’s, Monday at 9 PM ET - These teams played 2 very different games when they faced off this season with one totaling 121 points and the other 159 points. The one thing that was consistent in both match ups was both were low possession games (58 & 65 possessions). That’s how St Mary’s plays ranking 358th in adjusted tempo and 350th in possessions per game. Santa Clara prefers to play fast but based on the possession numbers of their 2 meetings, STM will again control this tempo and make it a slow game. In their high scoring game that reached 159 points, the 2 teams combined for a whopping 44 made FT’s which was an aberration as both rank outside the top 200 (St Mary’s outside the top 300) in percentage of points from the FT line. Neither teams gets there very often as they combined to average 36 FT attempts per game yet in that contest they attempted 61. Much of the scoring was late with SC fouling to try and catch up. In fact, with under 2:00 minutes remaining the teams had scored 129 total points and put up a ridiculous 30 points from that point on. The other meeting that totaled 121 points was more indicative of how we think this game will play out. STM’s defense is one of the best in the country. They rank #1 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed in WCC play. They are allowing just 58 PPG on WCC games which is by far the best in the league. SC’s offense struggled to shoot well vs STM’s this season hitting just 40% of their shots (both games combined) and their offense has regressed drastically over the last month. For the season Santa Clara ranks 103rd in eFG% (5th in the WCC) but since February 1st they rank 263rd in that category. Defensively they’ve gotten much better ranking 36th in eFG% allowed and 63rd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. That’s not a huge surprise as SC head coach Herb Sendek (former HC at NC State & Arizona State) has always been defensive minded. Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this slow paced game so we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 171 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 171 Points – Illinois vs Iowa, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These teams met at the end of February in Illinois and put up 180 points with the Illini winning 95-85. It was an up tempo game as to be expected with 74 possessions. These teams rank #2 and #3 in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo and both are in the top 70 nationally in that statistic. Both teams shot well in that game but not fantastic each hitting right around their average. They combined to hit 48% of their shots overall and 35% of their triples which again is near their season averages. Both made 20+ FT’s which isn’t a surprise as Iowa hits 80% of their freebies in league play and Illinois makes 77%. Both offenses rank in the top 10 nationally in efficiency and more recently, since February 1st, the Illini are #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Iowa is 8th. On the other end of the court both defenses rank outside the top 100 and they have been worse recently, again since February 1st, ranking 227th and 236th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, these are 2 of the worst in the Big 10 with Iowa ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% allowed while Illinois ranks 9th in defensive efficiency and dead last in 3 point FG% allowed. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games averaging 89 PPG during that 10 game stretch. At home, the Hawkeyes are averaging 90 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 80 points in all but 3 of their 16 home games this year. These teams are combined 41-19 to the Over this season and we anticipate another high scoring game in Iowa City on Sunday. |
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03-09-24 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 234 | Top | 142-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - This game is going to be a track meet between a pair of teams that love to play fast. The Pistons are the 8th fastest paced team in the league at 100.1 possessions per game, the Mavericks are 7th at 100.3. Neither team is good defensively as the Pistons allow the 3rd most points per possession at 1.202PPP, the Mavs give up 1.179PPP which ranks 22nd. Detroit just played Brooklyn and the two teams combined for 230 total points. Prior to that game the Pistons had faced 6 teams that are much better defensively than the Mavericks and those games were all lower scoring which has had an impact on this O/U number. Dallas is the 6th highest scoring team in the league this season at 118.7PPG. Detroit averages 112.1PPG. The Mavs defense has allowed 120+ points in 6 of the last seven games. Given the pace of play and poor defenses we expect a ton of points in this one. |
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03-09-24 | Memphis v. Florida Atlantic OVER 162 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 162 Points – Memphis vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These teams met 2 weeks ago and Memphis won that game 78-74. The total in that game was set at 160 and it went Under yet now the total on Saturday is set higher at 162 (opener). That was a fast paced game with 70 possessions and we expect a similar game here as both like to play up tempo, especially Memphis who ranks 18th in adjusted tempo. Neither team shot well in that game with both hitting 44% of their shots (which is below both of their season averages) and from beyond the arc it was a brutal effort as they combined to make only 12 of their 55 attempts for 22%. That was well below their season averages of 35% (Memphis) and 36% (FAU). They each made only 11 FT’s in the game which was low as both rank in the top 100 in FT’s made per game at 17 (FAU) and 15 (Memphis). Both dominated the offensive glass in that game (both rebounded 36% of their misses leading to 2nd chances and we expect that to remain the same as neither team is very good on the defensive glass (both outside the top 200). We have the #1 & #2 most efficient offenses in the AAC facing off here in a game and both average 83 PPG on the season. We expect both teams to reach the 80’s in this one and we’ll call for the Over to hit early on Saturday. |
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03-08-24 | Heat v. Thunder OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - The Thunder are home, rested and ready to put up a big number against the Heat. Miami meanwhile is playing the second night of a back to back off a game in Dallas last night. When these two teams met in Miami in mid-January the O/U set on that game was 232.5. The Heat dictated tempo on their home court and that game finished with 228 total points. Now the Thunder will dictate pace of play and they rank 8th for the season in possessions per game at 100.3. The Thunder had the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.220PPP. OKC is also 3rd in team EFG% at 57.5%. Miami is slightly below league average in terms of offensive efficiency, but they make up for it with the 10th best 3PT% in the league. Miami is shooting 37.5% from Deep and the Thunder are average in terms of defending the 3-point line. The Heat has a strong Under record on the road this season but they will be forced to score to keep up with the Thunder in this one. Bet OVER! |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - Based on how well the Bucks defense is currently performing and how well the Clippers D has been all season, this number is set way too high. Clearly Doc Rivers has had an impact on the Bucks defensive intensity as they currently hold the best defensive net rating since the All-Star break at 101.5. They’ve also gone from being one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA to ranking 27th in pace of play since the break. Prior to the ASG the Bucks defense gave up an average of 118.8PPG 8th most in the league. Since the All-Star game they are allowing 97.2PPG the lowest PPG allowed in the NBA. Milwaukee is also 1st in opponents FG% allowed at 40.8% and 6th in 3PT% allowed. The Clippers have been a top 10 defensive team all season long allowing the 9th fewest PPG and ranking 13th in DEFF. LA also prefers to play slower, ranking 22nd in pace of play at 97.8 possessions per game on the year. In their last 6 games they played at a slightly slower tempo and are currently without Russell Westbrook who pushed the pace with the second unit. The Bucks, Clippers and T’Wolves are very similar in terms of defense right now and the Bucks/Wolves just totaled 219 points while the Clippers/Wolves just scored 177 points yesterday. There is no reason to believe these two teams aren’t going to be locked in defensively Monday night. Bet UNDER! |
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03-03-24 | 76ers v. Mavs OVER 236.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 236.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks, 1 PM ET - The 76ers offense has really struggled to put up points in recent weeks averaging 106.4PPG over their last seven contests. Those poor scoring results have driven this Total down and given us tremendous value on the Over here. Take a look at the Sixers last seven games. They have faced Charlotte (top 8 Net Defensive rating in their last 10 games), the Celtics (3rd DEFF), Bucks (L5 games 8th DEFF), Cavs (2nd DEFF), Knicks (10th DEFF), Heat (8th DEFF) and Cavs again. We expect their offense to explode Sunday versus the Mavs D that ranks 20th in Defensive Efficiency rating. The last two games the 76ers faced a comparable defense they put up 119 and 121 points. Philly is around average in terms of pace of play, but Dallas prefers to play much faster, ranking 7th in possessions per game. The Mavs are 12th in offensive efficiency ratings (76ers 8th) and they scored 118.6PPG. Dallas is even better at home with the 7th best OEFF rating while putting up 120.5PPG. The Mavericks defense was torched on a recent 4-game road trip as they allowed 133 to the Pacers, 121 to the Cavs, 125 to Toronto and 138 to the Celtics. Both teams like to go Over when playing out of Conference as the Sixers are 11-8 Over versus the Western Conference, while the Mavs are 12-9 Over against the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a shootout! |
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02-27-24 | Penguins v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - The Penguins are coming off a crazy 7-6 win over the division rival Flyers. This continued a high-scoring trend for the Pens as they have now scored at least 4 goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Defensively, if you take out the results against two bottom-dwelling teams (Montreal and Chicago), Pittsburgh has allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of last 4 games against teams with a pulse! Vancouver is a strong team and they will be able to score well here on the Penguins as that trend continues. But right now Pittsburgh is scoring so well that this has the makings of a back and forth 4-3 type affair. Vancouver is off a 3-2 OT win over the Bruins but prior to this they had allowed at least 3 goals in 4 straight games and actually allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of those. Demko has not been at his best lately between the pipes and he is expected to get the call here as he was in the starters' crease at the morning skate. Considering that as well as the Penguins recent knack for giving up too many goals when facing quality opposition and you have a barnburner likely in this one. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 6 goals. Both teams are rested here as well as neither was in action yesterday. Fresh legs. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-27-24 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t expect much scoring from either team tonight as both are in less than favorable scheduling situations. The Bucks are coming off a pair of big wins in Minnesota and Philadelphia and facing a Hornets team they recently beat 36. Charlotte is coming off a 3-game Western Conference Road trip and playing their 4th game in six days. What both teams are doing extremely well right now is playing defense. In their last 7 games the Hornets have the best defensive Net Rating in the league and the Bucks are 5th best. If we look at each teams last 5 games we see the Hornets are allowing just 1.046-points per possession (5th best) while the Bucks are giving up just 1.059PPP (6th). Both teams are also playing at a much slower rate in recent games with their pace of play dropping considerably. The Under has cashed 3 straight in this series and in 8 of the last ten meetings. Charlotte has stayed Under in 5 straight games, the Bucks have played Under in 5 of their last six. Make no mistake, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number down due to each team’s recent play, but they didn’t move it enough in our opinion. Bet Under. |
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02-25-24 | Mavs v. Pacers UNDER 254 | Top | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 254 Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - This is a ridiculously high total for an NBA game, and we can’t resist the value with an Under bet here. Let’s first talk about raw numbers. Indiana scores 123.8PPG and allows 122.2PPG. Dallas is putting up 118.7PPG and giving up 117.2PPG. If we get an average game from both, they are not reaching that total, but we know its not as simple as that. The Mavs have won 7 straight games, and their offense has played above their season metrics in terms of offensive efficiency but it’s their defense that has been the difference. Dallas has the 2nd best Net Defensive Rating in the NBA over a 7-game stretch at 104.5. In their last five games they are allowing just 1.045-points per possession which is the 4th lowest number in the league over that course of games. Indiana has actually played better defense in their most recent 5-games allowing 1.165PPP while holding three opponents to 115 or less. Dallas shoots 48.2% overall at home but that number dips to 47.4% on the road and their 3PT% falls to 35.9 on the road compared to 38.6% at home. Indiana is playing at a slowing pace in their last five games compared to their season tempo average and their offensive efficiency has also dropped in recent games. The value lies in the Under here. |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, 1:10 PM ET - A few big syndicate bettors hit this Over and have driven the number up from 225.5 where it opened to 235 where it currently sits. We are betting contrarian and taking the value with the added points and UNDER the total. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, they have scored 235 or less five times. In the last four meetings in Philadelphia they have totaled 234 or less points in every game. The Bucks may have turned the corner with a big win in Minnesota the other night and the main reason this team is playing better in their defense. The Bucks D was one of the worst defensive efficiency units in the NBA until the recent hire of Doc Rivers. In their last five games they allowed the 6th fewest points per possession at 1.059PPP in the NBA. In their last five games they have the 3rd best FG% defense and allowed the 3rd fewest made shots. They’ve also given up only 104.4PPG in their last five games which is 5th best in the league. Each team has seen a dramatic decrease in their offensive Net Ratings also. Looking at each teams last 7 games we find they rank 23rd and 24th respectively in the league. In that same 7-game stretch the Bucks EF% is 17th, the Sixers are 26th. Philadelphia is coming off a game against a Cavs team that produced only 201 total points and the Cavs/Bucks has several similarities. The Sixers offense has struggled without Embiid in the lineup producing 104 or less points in 5 of their last seven games. |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves OVER 225 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225 Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee in a game the oddsmakers set a total of 222 and the game finished with 234-points. This game will have a similar result. In that previous meeting the Bucks played without All-Star MVP Dame Lillard who seems to have found his 3-point stroke. Lillard won the 3-point shootout and hit eleven 3's in the AS game, two from half court. Another All-Star in that game put up a huge number as Karl Anthony Towns scored 50 for the West. We like both players to carry that momentum into this game. The Bucks own the 5th best team shooting percentage in the NBA, the Wolves are 7th. Minnesota has the 3rd best 3PT% in the league, the Bucks are 9th best. The Bucks have the 3rds best EFG%, the Wolves are 7th. The oddsmakers have set this number too low and we expect another higher scoring game between these two teams. Three of the last four meetings have resulted in 234 or more points. |
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02-22-24 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 236.5 | Top | 107-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 236.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This number has been set too high according to our math model which is projecting 231.5-points being scored. The league average for points scored in an NBA game this season is 229.6PPG and this number is considerably higher than that. When OKC has been at home this season those contests have averaged 236.6 total points per game. When the Clippers have been on the road those games have averaged 233.1PPG. Both numbers get us a cash on our bet here. These two teams rank 3rd in offensive efficiency at 1.204PPP but they also rank 6th and 12th in defensive efficiency. The last three meetings between these two teams have been higher scoring, but with the added rest from the All-Star Break we expect both defenses to rise to the occasion. |
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02-21-24 | Blue Jackets v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Blue Jackets are in the 2nd night of a B2B which means, after losing 5-1 to the Kings with Merzlikins in goal for Columbus, Tarasov is likely to get the start tonight. It is either Merzlikins in goal in a B2B (not easy to do) or Tarasov (likely) and both goalies have struggled of late. Tarasov is the likely starter and he is allowing nearly 4 goals per game with a 3.91 GAA this season. Columbus lost 5-1 to LA last night which was the 10th time in last 14 games that the Jackets have allowed at least 4 goals! Columbus has scored an average of 3 goals per game on the season and will bounce back after scoring just 1 goal last night. They face a Ducks team that will likely have John Gibson in goal for this one. He has allowed 8 goals in his last two appearances even though those spanned just 5 periods of hockey. In other words his GAA is above 4 goals per game his last two games. Both these teams struggle on the penalty kill so that should help get the power plays going in this one. On the season the Blue Jackets have allowed the most goals in the league! As for Anaheim, in the Western Conference the Ducks rank 14th out of 16 teams in terms of goals allowed! Anaheim has won 2 of 3 and scored at least 4 goals in each win. They also are happy to be back home after a long road trip. They will take advantage of hosting a team that is very susceptible defensively and in goal. At the same time the Blue Jackets have done a great job in the scoring department this season when coming off a loss by a margin of at least 3 goals! They have averaged scoring 4.3 goals the 13 times that has happened this season! In other words, perfect spot for Columbus to respond in the offensive zone. 5-4 would not surprise us at all here and getting each team to 3-3 here (resulting in a 4-3 final) should not be a problem either! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-18-24 | Chattanooga v. Furman OVER 154.5 | Top | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total. |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies, 8:30 PM ET - New head coach Doc Rivers is working hard to implement his system in Milwaukee and it certainly has been a process. What’s evident is the Bucks pace of play and how they’ve slowed down offensively. The Bucks average 101.3 possessions per game on the season which is 5th fastest. In their last five games they are averaging 97.5 possessions per game which ranks 19th slowest. The Bucks offensive efficiency has fallen dramatically in their last five games but the defense has improved immensely as they allow only 1.124-points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA over the last 5 games. Looking at that same 5 game stretch the Grizzlies are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.055PPP. On the season the Grizz average the lowest points scored at 106.7PPG. Heading into the All-Star break we are betting both teams are looking forward to the time off so we can’t imagine either being enthused in a high scoring game. Lastly, the Grizz are coming off a game last night and they are 1-8 to the Under when playing without rest this season. |
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02-14-24 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 146 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win). |
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02-14-24 | VMI v. Furman OVER 164 | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play. |
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02-13-24 | Devils v. Predators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
#25/26 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, Tuesday at / PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Because of Nico Daws starting last night coupled with #1 goalie Vitek Vanecek currently out with an injury, the Devils options tonight are Daws again in the 2nd night of a B2B (always tough on a goalie) or go with the #3 guy Akira Schmid (3.38 GAA in 11 night game starts this season) who has been down in the American Hockey League until being called up because of the Vanecek injury. New Jersey expected to go with their third choice, Schmid, and he is expected to be matched up with Juuse Saros of the Predators. Note that Saros is struggling right now. Saros has a modest 2.97 GAA this season but has allowed 11 in his last 3 starts! Saros will face a Devils team that scored 3 early goals in their win last night and could have scored 5 or 6 goals in that game were it not for some great saves from the Kraken goalie. New Jersey looked great on the attack last night and they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 games. We expect each team to get to 3 goals here and force this one to get to at least a 4-3 final in Nashville. The Predators have allowed at least 4 goals in 5 of last 6 games. The Predators have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 home games! The Devils, prior to the 3-1 win over Seattle, had seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 8 goals! Based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6.5 at low juice across the board in this one! Over is our play here |
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02-13-24 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 227 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, the All-Star break comes at a really bad time as, prior to tough Monday, we are locked in on the NBA right now. Tonight, we will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference showdown. The Celtics are going to get to 120+ in this game as they average that number on the season. Boston is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.213-points per possession and has the 6th best Effective Field Goal percentage at 56.8%. The C’s should have an easy go of it on the offensive end of the court against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and allows 115.4PPG. The Nets defense has been even worse in their last five games allowing 1.228-points per possession and 120.6PPG. Boston is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the league and should exploit a Brooklyn D that ranks 24th in opponents 3PT% allowed. We will need Brooklyn to score in this game but if they get to around 110 this game should go Over rather easily. The Nets average 113.9PPG on the season and do it with volume shooting as they rank 4th in FG attempts per game. We expect a total of 230 or more points. |
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02-10-24 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville OVER 151 | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total. |
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02-09-24 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 232 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 232 Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Houston with the Rockets winning big 135-106 which went Over the Total of 232. There was one outlier in that game in that the Rockets shot 595 as a team which is well above their season average of 46.4%. But the Raptors shot below their season average of 48% with a 44% night from the field. What we did learn from that game is both teams prefer an up-tempo pace as there were a combined 184 field goal attempts which is above league average of 178.8. Over their last five games the Rockets have played faster than normal with 102.5 possessions per game. They have an EFG% of 54.4%. Toronto has an EF% of 54.6% on the season but in their last five games that number improves to 56.1% which is a top 10 percentage. We don’t expect Houston to get to 135 in this game, but we are also betting the Raptors score more than 106. Toronto averages 114.5PPG at home this season. Toronto has struggled defensively of late as they have allowed 135 or more in four straight games and just allowed 117 to a Charlotte team that has struggled offensively this month. We are betting OVER in this one. |
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02-07-24 | Alabama v. Auburn OVER 163 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
#693/694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 163 Points – Alabama vs Auburn, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met back in late January with the total set at 161 points they stayed Under hitting 154. Now, despite that game going Under the total, tonight’s total opened 2 points higher than where the total in January closed. Interesting. The oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are. In that first game both teams played well below their offensive averages for the season. Bama hit just 38% of their shots while Auburn hit just under 41% and they were a combined 54 for 135 for just 40%. From beyond the arc they combined to make only 16 of 55 attempts for 29%. When we look at their points per possession numbers, Bama was 1.05 PPP and Auburn was 1.00 PPP. Even with those poor offensive numbers, these 2 still hit 154 total points! Comparing those PPP numbers, For the season both rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (PPP) with the Crimson Tide averaging 1.26 and Auburn 1.19. So as you can see, neither team was anywhere close to what they average for the year. Bama leads the nation in scoring averaging 90 PPG and Auburn is in the top 25 at 83 PPG. Both teams play very fast so we expect lots of possessions. Both defenses foul a lot as well with each ranking in the top 90 in opponents percentage of points at the FT line and when they get there, Bama hits 79% and Auburn makes 76%. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games this season and the Tigers have also hit at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games. We look for both teams to hit at least 80 in this one so we like the Over on Wednesday night. |
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02-06-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 127.5 | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two of the best defensive teams in the nation squaring off here should lead to very low scoring game. They both rank in the top 6 nationally in defensive efficiency and when we narrow it down to Big 10 games only, Maryland is #1 in that category and Rutgers is #2. They both make opposing offense work to get decent shots with the average offensive possession vs these defenses last 18.2 seconds. That ranks both in the top 30 nationally. They both create lots of turnovers (each ranked in top 50) which should lead to a number of empty possessions. Shooting will be a problem in this one. These are the 2 worst shooting teams in the conference in Big 10 play with each making less than 40% of their shots. They are also poor 3 point shooting teams ranking 13th and 14th in the conference in 3 point FG% and neither shoots very many from deep. On top of all that, the Scarlet Knights and Terps are also the 2 lowest scoring teams in the conference, both in league games and overall. These 2 Big 10 rivals have faced each other 4 times since January of 2021 and none of those games have topped 128 total points so they are used to playing low scoring grinders. They played once last season and tallied 114 total points. The Terps are a very slow paced team and should get the tempo at home which will limit possessions for both teams. Under is the play. |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 240.5 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 240.5 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - When the Pacers come to town it’s literally like the Circus is arriving as fans will be guaranteed an exciting evening of entertainment. Indiana is the second fastest paced team in the league at 102.6 possessions per game. They love to run and score the 4th most points per game in transition and are the 7th most efficient on the break. The Pacers are the most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.217-points per possession while scoring 124.8PPG. What the Pacers don’t do well is defend. Indiana is 26th in points allowed per possession (DEFF) at 1.197PPP and gives up on average 122.8PPG. The Knicks on the other hand do everything well with the 7th OEFF & DEFF rating on the season. I do see a trend with the Knicks and it’s when the oddsmakers post a Total of 240 or more they tend to be high scoring games. In 5 games involving the Knicks this season with an O/U of 240 or more, all but one has finished with 240 or more points being scored. One of those games was against the same Pacers team and that game had an O/U number of 248 and the two teams combined for 266 points. Indiana and their opponent have totaled 253 total points in 3 of their last four games overall. We will play OVER in this one. |
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01-31-24 | Sharks v. Ducks OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Because of Mackenzie Blackwood starting last night, the Sharks options tonight were Blackwood again in the 2nd night of a B2B (always tough on a goalie) or go with the struggling Kaapo Kahkonen. San Jose expected to go with Kahkonen and he is expected to be matched up with John Gibson of the Ducks. Note that Gibson has a 3.09 GAA this season and if they go with Lukas Dostal he has a 3.50 GAA this season. Gibson is slated to start and he has allowed 30 goals in his last 8 starts! Also, he just allowed 4 goals in most recent start and gave up 4 goals to the Sharks in a recent 5-3 loss. As for San Jose goalie Kahkonen, he had a 3.85 GAA last season and is having another rough season including a 3.86 GAA this month! Both these clubs allow a lot of shots on goal and have struggled on the penalty kill this season. San Jose is off a 2-0 win and has won 4 of 5 games! The low-scoring win was a rarity and was the first shutout for Blackwood this season but prior to that, 3 of last 4 Sharks games totaled 7 or more goals! The Ducks are off a 3-2 win but this followed Anaheim allowing 4 goals per game on average over their last 8 games. Anaheim, prior to the 3-2 win, was on a stretch in which 8 of 9 games totaled 6 or more goals. Those 8 games that did had an average of 7.5 goals and, based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6 across the board in this one! Over is our play here |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY NFL 10* ON Over 51 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 50.5 in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game that landed on 45 but weather turned out to be a big issue in that game. That won’t be the case on Sunday as we are looking at temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation in San Francisco on Sunday. Even with the poor conditions last week (was worse than we anticipated) a GB missed 40 yard FG in the 4th quarter kept that one from being tied at 24-24 which would have led to an Over. The Packers were also stopped on downs at the SF 10-yard line in the first half & the Niners missed a FG to end the first half and both of those results took points off the board. SF’s QB Purdy had a very poor game and seemed to struggle throwing the ball in the heavy rain. He was held under 60% completion rate for only the 3rd time this season and the first 2 were vs Cleveland & Baltimore, 2 top 5 pass defenses. Now he’s facing a Detroit defense that ranks 31st vs the pass and we look for Purdy to have big time success in this one. Over their last 5 games alone, the Lions pass defense has allowed Vikings 4th string QB Mullens to pass for 411 & 396 yards, Dak Prescott 345 yards, Matt Stafford 367 yards, and Baker Mayfield 349 yards. We look for the passing game to open up SF’s potent rushing attack making them very tough to defend here. The Niners are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at almost 29 PPG and we look for them to top 30 in this one. Detroit should have plenty of success offensively as well. Green Bay moved the ball very well in poor conditions last week punting only once the entire game. The Packers ran for 136 yards on 4.9 YPC which could be a problem here for the Niners again vs a very good Detroit running game (7th in the NFL). SF’s defensive weakness is stopping the run (26th EPA) and that should open up Detroit’s passing game as well. We have 2 top 5 DVOA offenses going at it here in what we expect will be a “keep up” game with both teams being successful on offense. Historically there have been 15 totals in AFC & NFC Championship games set at 49 or higher and the Over is 10-4-1 in those games. Add another Over to that number on Sunday. |
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01-26-24 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 238.5 | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met on Wednesday night with the Bucks winning 126-116 on this same court. The game went Over the Total of 237.5 points. Both teams shot exceptionally well at 51% for the Cavs and 50% for the Bucks. Milwaukee also made 25 of 28 free throws for the game. That game was trending under through 3Q’s until the two teams exploded for 70-points in the 4th quarter. In other words, in a perfect storm these two teams combined for 242 points, and we are betting that doesn’t happen again here. In the 10 previous meetings between these teams, they have topped this Total only two times. The Cavaliers are the 3rd best defensive team in the NBA per efficiency ratings and 16th in OEFF. They are also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.1 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play faster, ranking 4th in pace and are 2nd in offensive efficiency but 19th in DEFF. We expect to see the Bucks defense improve with the new addition of coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks allowed the 4th fewest points per possession a season ago. The Cavs rank in the bottom third of the NBA in 3PT% so they won’t put up points from beyond the arc. The Bucks have the 7th best 3PT% in the NBA but the Cavs defense allows just 35.3% from Deep which is 8th best defensively. With these two teams having just played we expect the familiarity to lead to a lower scoring game. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 237.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over! |
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01-24-24 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals -120 - Arizona Coyotes at Florida Panthers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Sergei Bobrovsky expected to get the call for the Panthers and his last 3 appearances have only lasted about 2 and 1/2 games as he was pulled mid-way in one of the starts. In this 2 and 1/2 game stretch he has allowed 10 goals. He has a GAA in the 4.00 range over his last 6 appearances! The Coyotes, because this is the front end of a back to back and they have Tampa Bay tomorrow, are expected to rest Connor Ingram and go with Karel Vejmelka instead. Vejmelka has not played in over a week and in that one he allowed 4 goals in just 14 minutes! Prior to this he allowed an average of 4 goals over his last 3 games so his form has not been good. The Panthers will take advantage here and are off of a 4-1 victory and that was the 9th time in 12 games that Florida has scored at least 4 goals! The Coyotes enter this one off a 5-2 win and 6 of their last 9 games have totaled 6 or more goals. Arizona has scored 3.4 goals per game in their last 5 games and this one, based on all of the above, is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one! Over is our play here |
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01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 240.5 Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - The Pacers are returning home after a long 6 game West Coast road trip and one of those games was a date in Denver. The Books posted an Over-Under on that game of 239.5 and the game finished with 226 total points. Granted, Tyrese Haliburton did not play in that game and is expected to be in the lineup tonight but we still like the value with the Under. In that most recent game, the Pacers shot 47% in making 43 of 92 field goal attempts. Denver shot extremely well at 65%, making 46 of 71 from the field. The main statistic here is the number of field goal attempts which was well below league average. Indiana relies heavily on their transition offense or fast break points as they average the 4th most in the league at 17 per game. Denver allows the 9th fewest transition points per game at 13.5ppg. Indiana is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 102.9 possessions per game but in their last five games that average dips to 100.2. The Nuggets prefer a much slower tempo, ranking 29th in the league with an average of 97.5 possessions per game. In each teams last five games they have been above average in terms of defensive efficiency. We don’t see the Pacers having much energy in their first game home after the extended travel and the Nuggets prefer a much slower pace to begin with. We will be this on Under the number. |
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01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The Suns are coming off a high tempo game last night against the Pacers with the starters seeing extended court time. They will gladly play at a much slower pace tonight against the Bulls. Over their last five games the Bulls are 25th in pace of play at 96.1 possessions per game. On the season the Bulls are THE slowest team in the league at 96 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Suns actually play slower, also ranking 28th in pace on the season and 17th in the last five games. Both teams rate right around the league average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.154-points per possession. On the season the Suns rate above average in offensive efficiency, Chicago is well below. In recent action the Bulls are 16th in OEFF, the Suns are 17th. Chicago is missing one of their scorers as Zach LaVine is out tonight with an ankle injury. LaVine is averaging 19.5PPG on the season and shooting over 45%. The Suns have played Under the total in 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. After a stretch of 4 straight Overs the Bulls have now stayed below their posted Total in 2 of their last three. In the other meeting this season these two teams combined for 231 in overtime but had just 219 in regulation. The O/U on that game was 218 so you can see for yourself the added value here. Bet UNDER. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 or 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The anticipated weather forecast has pushed this total lower than it should be in our opinion and we like the value on the Over in this one. The forecast now calls for the snow to stop on Saturday night with no precipitation on Sunday. That should allow plenty of time to get the field in good shape. The temps will be in the mid 20’s with 10MPH winds which isn’t bad at all. Both of these teams are used to playing in poor weather. In fact, both played in much worse conditions last week and KC put up 26 points and Buffalo scored 31 points. These 2 met in early December and the final score was Buffalo 20, KC 17 staying under the posted total which was 49. In that game both teams left points off the scoreboard with 2 turnovers in opposing teams territory and a TD called back late by KC because of a penalty. This total has been adjusted too low. Mahomes & Allen have faced off 6 times and the total in 5 of those games was set in the 50’s and the other meeting was 49. Now we’re talking mid 40’s for this total. In their 6 meetings prior to this one, these 2 have averaged 53.6 total points and that includes the 37 point output last month. They’ve met twice in the playoffs in do or die situations and put up 78 and 62 points in those 2 games. We have 2 top 10 offenses facing off (both total offense & YPP) with 2 high level QB’s that are both capable of putting up big numbers. With the weather looking OK as we get closer to game time, we like the Over in this game. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 22 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - This is going to be a “keep up” game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and press the other offense to keep up on the scoreboard. GB’s offense is clicking to say the least as they’ve put up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 28 PPG over their last 9 contests. That includes putting up over 31 PPG during that stretch vs the 3 defensive teams they faced that ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. That includes last week rolling up 48 points vs a Dallas defense that had allowed 30 points only twice in their previous 12 games. SF’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL putting up 6.6 YPP and they scored at least 30 points in 9 games this year and we’re confident they’ll reach at least that vs this Green Bay defense that gave up over 500 total yards last week vs the Cowboys. The Packer defense ranked outside the top 20 in both YPP and YPG allowed yet played only 4 games the entire season vs teams ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. They allowed 27 PPG in those 4 games and SF is the best of the bunch so we’re confident the Niners get to at least 30 points here. GB has gone Over the total in 7 of their last 8 games and SF has gone Over the total in 5 of their 8 home games this season. The weather will be the one potential deterrent here as it’s been raining in the Bay Area for much of the week and may still be by gametime. The wind, however, doesn’t look bad on Saturday evening in the 10 MPH range. With the spread near -10 in this game the final score is projected to be around 30-20. We have both teams topping those projected numbers and we grab the Over. |
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01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. The Coyotes head to Calgary with plenty of confidence off a 6-0 win. However, Arizona also just got hammered 6-2 at home by these Flames. Something has to give here and we fully expect the Coyotes to be aggressive on the attack as they are out for revenge but they will again struggle to slow down Calgary. The Flames have consistently been involved in high-scoring games of late. Calgary is off a 3-1 win at Vegas but, prior to this, 6 of the last 9 Flames games had totaled at least 6 goals. Those 6 games averaged 8 goals each! The Coyotes have had 5 straight games (and 8 of last 11) total at least 6 goals! Prior to their 6-0 shellacking of the Wild at Minnesota, Arizona had allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their 5 most recent games. The goals should fly here with a strong effort from the revenge-minded Coyotes coupled with Arizona's struggles in keeping the puck out of their own net! The Coyotes are strong on the power play but weak on the penalty kill. Of course this helps lead to some extra scoring overall in Arizona's games. In terms of special teams play, the Flames lead the league in short-handed goals. Don't be surprised if special teams play helps the cause in this one as well as Arizona is one of the most penalized teams in the league. Calgary has scored 26 goals in 6 games and they come out strong here at home but the revenge-minded Coyotes keep this one interesting in what should be a back and forth high-scoring battle. Based on the recent trending for each club, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 50.5 Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET - Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 29.9PPG and has averaged 37.4PPG at home. The Cowboys have put up over 40+ points in four home games this season. The Cowboys have sixteen 40+ point games under head coach Mike McCarthy since 2020. Dallas should put up points against this Packer defense that is 27th in DVOA and give up 5.6YPP (20th). The Packers allow 128.3 yards per game (28th) and give up the 18th most passing yards per completion. Dallas and Dak Prescott have the best completion percentage in the NFL and average 258 passing yards per game which is 3rd most in the league. This Packer D looked much better in their last two games but that was against a Vikings team playing a rookie QB in his first start and a Bears team that wasn’t interested last week in the season finale. Prior to their last two games the Packers had given up 30 points to the Panthers, 34 to the Buccaneers and 24 to the Giants and NONE of those teams have an offense that compares to Dallas. In fact, the Packers Experted Plays Against defense in their last five games is one of the worst in the NFL and it came against a host of dead-beat quarterbacks. The Boys put up a poor showing in their last home game against the Lions and we expect an explosion this week against Green Bay. The Packers will score in this game too. The offense is as healthy as it’s been all season with a solid O-line that can slow the Cowboys pass rush and open holes for RB Jones. Packers QB Love has been outstanding this season and this team has no pressure whatsoever and can play loose. GBay has scored 20+ in 7 of their last eight games, 27 or more in four of those games. In the Packers two biggest games in recent weeks they put up 29 in Detroit and 27 against the Chiefs, two solid defenses comparable to the Cowboys. |
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01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs OVER 231 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231 New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Pelicans are in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 2nd of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not to mention, last night’s game was in altitude in Denver. Dallas has been at home and is coming off a 128-124 win over the Knicks. They played without Luka Doncic in that game but it clearly didn’t hurt them offensively as they put up 128 points against the 10th adjusted ranked efficiency defense. Dating back to the start of last season the Pelicans have gone Over the total in 70.6% of their games when playing without rest. In those 17 games the Over has cashed by an average of +7.8PPG. The Pels have the 12th most efficient offense in the NBA and play at a league average pace. The Mavericks own the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA, rank 24th in DEFF (meaning they will give up points here) and also play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. In the two head-to-head meetings this season they have produced 241 and 260 total points. The bet here is OVER again. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 65 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44.5 Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 PM ET - The weather expected in Kansas City on Saturday night is going to be brutal. The forecast is calling for 0 degrees with a windchill of -18 below. Winds are expected to be 15mph and it’s going to be extremely hard for either team to throw the football. Not to mention these teams have not been great offensively at the end of the season. Kansas City has gone from averaging 29.2PPG a year ago to 21.8PPG this season which is essentially ‘average’ in the NFL. Last season the Chiefs averaged 1-point for every 13.9 yards gained which was 4th highest. This year it takes them on average 16.1 yards gained to score a point which ranks 21st in the league. KC is 9th in yards gained pe game and in Yards Per Play. They have scored 21 or less points in 8 of their last twelve games. What the Chiefs have done well this season is play defense. KC is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game (289YPG), the 5th fewest yards per play (5.0) and 2nd fewest points per game at 17.3. Against a Dolphins team that wants to pass you better be able to defend the pass and the Chiefs do that well too. KC is 4th in passing yards per game allowed and 8th in completion percentage against. Kansas City also averages 3.4 sacks per game which is 2nd in the league. Teams have figured out how to scheme against the Dolphins offense as the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills have held them to 22, 19 and 14-points in their past three games. Miami averages 13.8 yards per point for the season but against those three previous opponents that number dips to 18.6YPPT, 5th worst in the NFL. The Dolphins average the most yards per game at 401YPG on the season but in their last three games they have put up just 341.7YPG. Miami’s defense is 10th in yards per game allowed, 12th in yards per play allowed and 6th against the run. In 8 of their last 10 games the Fish have allowed 21 or less points. These two teams met in Germany earlier this season with the Chiefs winning 21-14, producing 35-points. Miami managed 292 total yards, Kansas City had 267 yards. Miami averaged 5.0YPP, KC managed 4.8YPP. As long as this number is above 44 we will be Under. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game. |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee UNDER 36 | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
#275/276 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 36 Points – Iowa vs Tennessee, Monday at 1 PM ET - We don’t see either of these teams getting to 20 points as we anticipate a full blown defensive battle. We know how poor Iowa’s offense has performed this season. They rank dead last in the nation in total offense average 240 YPG and put up only 16 PPG. They scored more than 15 points only once in their last 7 games and were shutout in the Big 10 Championship game vs Michigan. The Vols have some opt outs on both sides of the ball, but their defense is deep and talented. They finished in the top 15 nationally allowing opponents only 3.2 YPC which means Iowa will probably have to try and find success through the air which we don’t anticipate happening. The Hawkeyes finished 130th in passing YPG (123 YPG) and QB Hill, who took over after starter McNamara was injured, completed less than 50% of his passes and had only 5 TD’s in his 9 starts. Iowa’s defense, on the other hand, is outstanding. They finished in the top 5 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense (13 PPG). Even vs a high powered Michigan offense in the Big 10 Title game they held the Wolverines to 13 first downs and 213 total yards. The Tennessee offense wasn’t nearly as potent as it was last season (41st in scoring after finishing #1 in the nation last year) and they will be without a number of key components including starting QB Milton. Starting at QB in this game will be true freshman Iamaleava who only attempted 26 passes this season all in mop up duty blowouts vs poor teams. We don’t see him having much success vs this Iowa defense meaning Tennessee will need a big day on the ground vs the Hawkeye defense that allowed 3.0 YPC (4th nationally). Defenses dominate this one and Under is the play. |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 43 | 33-10 | Push | 0 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
#131/132 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 43 Points - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This number opened 43.5 and was quickly steamed up to 46 with the Pro’s hammering the Over. Then the Vikings announced that they would start rookie QB Hall instead of Nick Mullens and the line dipped below 44. With this below a key number of 44 we will bite with a bet on the Over with whomever is under center for Minnesota. Mullens wasn’t great in his two recent starts, both losses, as he threw 6 INT’s to 4 TD’s. This Sunday the Vikings face a Packers defense that is really struggling to stop anyone. In their three most recent games the Packers allowed Tommy DeVito to look like Phil Simms and the 80’s Giants. They then faced the Bucs w/Baker Mayfield who had a perfect passer rating and one of his career best games in Lambeau. Last week they made the Panthers pathetic offense and QB Young look like a top 10 unit with nearly 400-total yards of offense. Green Bay gives up 22.1PPG on the season but in their last three games they have given up an average of 29.3PPG, 4th most in the NFL. Minnesota is 7th in yards per play and 10th in total yards per game and they won’t change their game plan here. Green Bay’s offense has played well in their last six games, scoring 20+ in all six while averaging 26PPG. The Packers are 13th in yards per play offensively and QB Love should have a field day against a Vikings pass defense that is 32nd in completion percentage defense and 17th in passing yards allowed per game. In the second meeting of the same season between these two NFC North rivals the Over has cashed three straight times with total points scored of 58, 47 and 50-total points. This game has OVER written all over it. |
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12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call. |
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12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - Charlotte is coming off a game last night and gave up 133 to the Lakers. They have given up some big numbers recently against the Lakers, Pacers and 76ers but we don’t expect that tonight in Phoenix. The three teams previously mentioned are faster paced teams ranking 13th or better but the Suns are the 5th slowest team in the NBA. Phoenix is also an average team in terms of offensive efficiency at 1.166-points per possession. Charlotte doesn’t play fast either (without Ball in the lineup) ranking 17th in pace this season overall and they’ve been slower yet in their last five games at 97.7 possessions per game. The Hornets are struggling offensively having scored 114 or less points in 9 straight games and 104 or less in 5 of nine. The Suns had an outlier offensive game last time out when they put up 129 against the Rockets. Prior to that they had scored 114 or less in 7 of their last nine games. We aren’t expecting many points in this game and will BET UNDER. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis. |
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12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here. |
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12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons OVER 45 | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 45 Points – Indianapolis vs Atlanta, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta is off terrible offensive showing last week losing 9-7 which is giving us some value on this total. Last week’s game @ Carolina was in a monsoon with rain and wind make it very tough on the offenses. On top of that, Carolina can’t score so the Falcons weren’t pressed to keep up so to speak on the scoreboard. The Falcons had a lead the vast majority of the game so they stuck to a conservative game plan (12 completed passes & 31 rush attempts). Atlanta is making a switch at QB going back to Heinecke which many times gives the offense a 1 game boost. In the 2 games he started this season the Falcons averaged 25.5 PPG and those games totaled 59 and 51 points. They have been terrible on offense on the road averaging 13 PPG but at home they are averaging almost 24 PPG. The Colts have been an Over team all season long. They have gone over the total 10 times this year which is the most in the NFL. Their defense is a liability ranking 8th in scoring allowing 24.5 PPG (27th in the NFL). On the other side of the ball Indy is a top 10 scoring offense and they’ve put up at least 27 points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are also a very fast paced team ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds per play. We have perfect conditions inside in Atlanta and we look for both offenses to thrive on Sunday. Over is the play. |
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12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here. |