Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse +5 v. TCU | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +5 over TCU, Friday at 9:40 PM ET Here we have what we would consider on the fringe of being a college basketball blue blood program (Syracuse) against a TCU team on the rise but one that hasn’t been to the Dance since 1998. On the other hand, this is old hat for the Orange as they’ve been here 14 times since 1998! We think it’s a positive Syracuse already has a game under their belt beating UCLA while none of the TCU players have ever been here so you can expect some first game jitters. Also, the Orange are playing their 2nd game in 3 days but the travel was very easy as they went from Dayton to Detroit (only 200 miles apart). TCU likes playing fast but this game will be played at a slow pace and Syracuse will make sure of that (343rd in tempo). Very similar to what the Orange did to a very fast paced Arizona State team on Wednesday in a 60-56 win so the Cuse will have that advantage. The 3 slower paced teams in the Big 12 (KSU, Texas, & Texas Tech) gave TCU problems as the Frogs were 2-5 in games vs those teams. The Frogs began the season on a tear winning their first 12 games of the season (7 vs teams outside the top 100) but they have won only 9 of their last 20 games. TCU is solid offensively, however they will be facing a long zone (Cuse is the tallest team in the nation) they are not used to seeing as the vast majority of Big 12 teams play mostly man to man defense. Defensively we have a huge edge with Syracuse as they are 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense compared to TCU who ranks 105th and 267th in those 2 categories. We expect this one to go to the wire and getting 5 is the way to go here. Take Syracuse. |
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03-16-18 | College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* College of Charleston +9.5 over Auburn, Friday at 7:25 PM ET This is a veteran C of C team (61st most experienced team in the nation) that simply knows how to win. They are 26-7 this season and over the last 2 years they are 51-17. The Cougars come into this game having won 14 of their last 15 games with their only loss during that stretch coming in OT. This team won’t get rattled which is something Auburn counts on to fuel easy buckets. The Tigers are very good at creating turnovers which lead to easy buckets. The problem is, this veteran C of C backcourt turns the ball over only 14% of the time which is 10th least in the nation. They are dangerous offensive team that shoots well at both levels and makes nearly 77% of their FT’s. The Cougars should get to the line in this game as Auburn fouls a lot. The Tigers like to play a match up zone defensively and that plays into Charleston’s hands as they are one of the better zone offenses in this tourney (11th best). We’re not sold on this Auburn team. They began the season 21-2 but have gone 4-5 over their last 9 games. They were destroyed by Alabama in their first game in the SEC tourney. The Tigers love to play fast but you can bet that Charleston will slow this game to a snail’s pace (324th in tempo). Auburn relies too heavily on the 3 points shot for us and we think this will be one of those games where the big underdog takes the favorite to the limit and has a chance to win. Take the points here. |
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03-16-18 | Kansas State +2.5 v. Creighton | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas State +2.5 over Creighton, Friday at 6:50 PM ET KSU was shorthanded in the Big 12 tourney with two of their key players, Brown and Wade, injured. Wade, their 6’10 leading scorer and rebounder, injured his foot vs TCU and did not play vs Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Brown, their 2nd leading scorer and top assist man, injured his eye very early on in the Kansas game and was not able to return. That was last Friday so they’ve both had a full week to recover and they are expected to play without limitations in this game. They also were able to have success on the road which is key. The Cats were 7-6 away from home this year (road/neutral) including true road wins over NCAA tourney teams Baylor, Texas, and should have been tourney team Oklahoma State. Creighton is a team that was sitting pretty in the Big East with a 4-1 record in mid January. Then they lost starting forward Martin Krampelj (12 PPG) for the season to an injury and they haven’t been quite the same since. After his injury, the Jays have lost 7 of their final 13 games with many of their wins going to the wire. Throw out their win over Bemidji State, and Creighton only has 1 win since January 17th that came by more than 8 points. They are fairly soft defensively (7th in the Big East in defensive efficiency) and were just 4-10 away from home (road/neutral). The Cats are a tough physical team that takes on the personality of their coach Bruce Weber. Creighton is more of a finesse team and we’ll take the tougher team all day long here, especially as an underdog. |
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03-16-18 | Butler -1.5 v. Arkansas | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Butler -1.5 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:10 PM ET This is a very good match up for Butler. The solid shooting Bulldogs should have a field day against a porous Arkansas defense (104th nationally in defensive efficiency). During the regular season, the Razorbacks were the 12th rated defense in the SEC ahead of only Ole Miss and Vandy who had the two worst records in conference play. In the SEC semi-finals, a decent but not great Tennessee offense put up 1.40 points per possession on this team. So big edge for Butler on the defensive end as they rank 49th in defensive efficiency and were the 3rd best defense in the Big East during the regular season. Offensively these teams are very close in shooting percentage and efficiency so we’ll call that end of the court a draw. Where Butler has a big edge on offense is at the FT line where they hit 77% of their freebies compared to just 67% for the Razors. We expect that to be a huge factor here as Butler should get to the line a lot as Arkansas sends teams to the FT line at a high rate. On top of that, the Arkansas offense is fueled by creating turnovers on the defensive end and Butler has a veteran backcourt that turns the ball over only 15% of the time which is 28th fewest in the country. The venue in Detroit definitely favors the Bulldogs as well as they should have a much larger contingent of fans as many made the 4 hour trip by car. Defense and free throws will be the key here as Butler wins and covers this small number. |
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03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | 53-68 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +14 over Cincinnati, Friday at 2:00 PM ET We expect a low scoring, slow paced game here (the total is set at 130 currently) which will make it very tough for the Bearcats to cover this big number. Cincinnati is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (323rd in adjusted tempo) while GSU doesn’t like to play fast either (235th in adjusted tempo). This isn’t a great match up for Cincy’s offense. They are not a very good outside shooting team (132nd nationally in 3 point shooting percentage) and they are facing a defense they don’t see very often. GSU plays a funky 1-3-1 zone and the Bearcats come in as the 10th least efficient offense in this tourney when facing a zone defense. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense is obviously very good as well, and they also play a zone much of the time (extended match up zone). However GSU is a very good outside shooting team (29th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they are the 5th most efficient offense in this tourney when facing a zone defense. Both teams played Sunday and won their respective conference tourneys with Cincy going to the wire beating Houston by 1 while Georgia State blew out a very talented and senior laden Texas Arlington team. The Panthers will struggle on the boards here but we feel they can make enough 3’s (29th nationally in 3 point FG%) to keep this one fairly close. While the venue in Nashville does favor the Bearcats, it’s definitely not an inconvenience for GSU as Atlanta is only a 3+ hour drive. The Panthers are a top 100 team and would be rated as the 5th best team in the AAC so this is no pushover. Cincy was favored by less this season vs comparable AAC teams (SMU & Temple) so the value is definitely with GSU here. Take the points. |
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03-16-18 | Marshall +12.5 v. Wichita State | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall +12.5 over Wichita State, Friday at 1:30 PM ET Wichita is vastly overrated as a 4 seed in our opinion. We had them rated as the 3rd best team in the AAC this year (behind Cincy & Houston) and this team probably should be a 6 seed. The Shockers had just a 2-3 record against those top 2 AAC teams and weren’t playing particularly well down the stretch in our mind. Their last double digit win was over a month ago and that includes a number of games against weak AAC competition. This team is way down defensively from previous seasons (110th in defensive efficiency) and we feel this very good shooting Marshall team cans stay in this game to the end. The Herd have a number of guys that can shoot the 3 but they also shoot in very well inside the arc (15th nationally in 2 point shooting percentage) and they make over 76% of their FT’s. This is a very dangerous team with a player, Jon Elmore (27 points in the CUSA Final), that can carry a team. Marshall won the CUSA tourney beating a very good Western Kentucky team in the finals. Winning that conference is looking better as they may have been underrated based on what is happening in the other post-season tournaments. WKY blew out a very solid Boston College team in the NIT, MTSU won by 30 in their NIT game, and North Texas just went on the road and beat South Dakota 90-77 as a 13 point underdog! Marshall took Xavier to the wire on the road this year and beat the highest rated team in CUSA (MTSU) both times they met. This game will be much closer than this number. Take the points. |
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03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Providence, Friday at 12:15 PM ET Providence is a popular underdog here getting nearly 70% of the bets in this game. That’s normally not a good thing. People like to bet favorites and when a dog is getting a high percentage of bets, the numbers don’t speak well for that team. In fact, since 2005, underdogs on the first weekend of the NCAA tourney receiving more than 50% of the bets have cashed in only 40% of the time. The Friars are one of the highest bet dogs on Friday but we like the other side. A&M has better numbers throughout the season and we don’t think it’s a great match up for Providence. Both have played a very tough schedule to the numbers are accurate. Neither team is overly efficient offensively with A&M holding a slight edge. Defensively, the Aggies are far superior ranking 12th nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. They are the much better rebounding team as well. The Friars defend the 3 well but are not very good at defending close to the basket. That plays right into A&M’s game as they don’t shoot a ton of 3’s but they are big inside and like to score in the paint. Providence scores at a high rate from the FT line, however A&M doesn’t foul much. The Aggies also defense both levels (inside and outside the arc) very well and they defend the rim with a high number of blocked shots. The lone downside here is Texas A&M is not a great FT shooting team but we don’t expect that to hurt them here as we don’t look for either team to shoot a ton of FT’s in this game. The Friars made a physical and emotional run to the Big East Finals playing 3 OT games in their tourney. A&M has been off since last Thursday after losing by 1 point at the buzzer to Bama. We like the Aggies at this low number. |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* SF Austin +11.5 over Texas Tech, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET SFA is a program that knows how to win and is very dangerous here as a double digit underdog. The Lumberjacks have a record of 273-86 over the last 11 years which is an average of 25 wins per year. They are used to this setting having made the Big Dance in 3 of the last 4 seasons and they haven’t been simply happy to be there as they have 2 wins over West Virginia and VCU. Playing in the Southland Conference SFA obviously doesn’t get a chance to play many Power 5 teams and to be honest they have trouble scheduling games vs those schools who really want nothing to do with them because of their success. The Lumberjacks did get a chance to play 3 Power 5 schools on the road this year and fared quite well winning @ LSU while losing by 1 point @ Mizzou and by 5 points @ Mississippi State. Their pressure defense causes problems for opposing teams as SFA turns opponents over on a whopping 26% of their possessions (1st in the nation). Tech isn’t great a protecting the ball (158th with a 18% turnover rate) and they are fairly thin at the ball handling spot when Keenan Evans needs a break. WVU plays very similarly on defense to SFA and Tech was 1-2 vs the Mountaineers with their lone win being a come from behind 1 point win at home. The Red Raiders were in a spot at one point in the season to win the Big 12 but they didn’t play well down the stretch losing 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins coming by 4 points each. This game is in Dallas which is only 160 miles from SFA’s campus (350 miles to Lubbock). We think Tech gets a scare here before they move on. SFA covers this double digit number. |
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Seton Hall -2.5 over NC State, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET We feel that Seton Hall is a bit under seeded at 8 and NC State should be lower than a 9. The Hall is a very experienced team with 4 key seniors who have been through the Big East and NCAA wars together. They’ve been to the Dance each of the last 2 seasons but were bounced in the first round by Gonzaga two years ago and Arkansas last year. One of their goals this year was to get back to the NCAA and win a game and this is their final chance as a group that has been very successful (83 wins in their 4 years) but still has some unfinished business. The Pirates started to hit their stride late in the season winning 4 of their last 5 regular season games including road wins @ Providence by 12 and @ St Johns who was playing very well late (Johnnies beat Duke & Nova late in the season). The Hall also played their final 3 games without leading scorer and senior leader Rodriguez (18 PPG) but he is back and ready heading into the Dance. NC State thrives on creating turnovers in their full court press, however we don’t see that bothering the veteran guards for the Pirates. Once SH breaks the press, they love to score in the paint and that is a true weakness for the Wolfpack as they rank 297th at defending inside the arc. When they do miss, Seton Hall rebounds 34% of misses which is 29th nationally while NC State is 307th nationally in defensive rebounding. That should give the Pirates some extra opportunities at the rim to score. Both offenses are similar (24th and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency) but the Hall has a big edge defensively. We’ve watched both of these teams a lot this year and simply feel that Seton Hall is the tougher team and we like them in this game. |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -104 | 44 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +2 over Rhode Island, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET Many of the national pundits are up in arms about Oklahoma making the tourney as they struggled down the stretch in what turned out to be the toughest conference in America this year, the Big 12. However, what about Rhode Island coming in as a 7 seed? This is a team that struggled down the stretch, played in a much weaker conference, AND was rated 49th nationally by Ken Pom (which is 12 seed range) which is lower than Oklahoma yet they received an at large and a 7 seed? And now the Rams are favored? You can bet with all of the talk about why they should not have received a bid, the Sooners will be very motivated to prove people wrong here. Let’s not forget this team was a top 5 team earlier in the season and beat the likes of Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Wichita State this season. Should they have been rated as a top 5 team? Obviously not but they aren’t as bad as the pundits are making them out to be. Yes they struggled on the road in Big 12 play but who wouldn’t vs that schedule? Big 12 home teams were 62-30 on the year and only ONE team in the conference was .500 or above away from home in league play (Kansas). Let’s also not forget this OU team was favored @ Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Alabama and small road dogs @ WVU, @ TCU, @ Texas, and @ Baylor. And now they are a dog on a neutral court to Rhode Island? The Rams aren’t playing well right now. They lost 3 of their last 5 regular season games, struggled to get by VCU and St Joes in the A10 tourney before getting bounced by Davidson. This is a tough scheduling spot as well for URI playing on Sunday and now an early start on Thursday. We agree that OU looked a bit tired late in the season but they now have had more than a full week off to re-energize. They also have the best player on the court in Trae Young which is always a bonus, especially as an underdog. The Sooners will be motivated, have played the much tougher schedule, and are in a better situational spot. Take the points with Oklahoma here. |
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03-14-18 | UC-Davis +12.5 v. Utah | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* UC Davis +12.5 over Utah, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET We think there is some solid value taking UC Davis as a double digit underdog here. UCD won the Big West regular season title with a 12-4 record but were ousted in the conference tourney by CS Fullerton who made the Big Dance. UCD had that game under control leading by 13 in the 2nd half before they went cold scoring only 6 points in the final 10:00 minutes and lost by 3. That was last Friday so they’ve had some time to recoup and the Aggies are excited to be playing a Power 5 team in round one of the NIT. This is a solid Davis team that went 22-10 this year and that was coming off a season where they made the NCAA, beat NC Central in a play in game before losing to Kansas. This year they played 2 Pac 12 opponents on the road beating Washington State by 14 and losing to Washington by 7. They are a top 100 team in defensive efficiency, a solid 3 point shooting team, and they turn teams over at a rate of 22% (11th in the country). They also proved they can play well away from home with a 9-6 record in road games including beating both 2nd place teams (UCSB & UC Irvine) on the road. After making the NCAA tourney in 2015 & 2016, the Utes failed to make it to the field of 64 last year and lost in the opening round of the NIT to Boise State. Utah had higher aspirations this year and have to be a bit discouraged they are again in the NIT. They needed to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game to possibly move close to the NCAA bubble but lost by 2 to an Oregon team that won the night before in OT vs Washington State. The Utes lost 3 conference home games this year and we feel they are overvalued here. In fact, we rate both Cal and Washington State well below UC Davis and Utah was favored by 12.5 and 10.5 in those games. The closest team in the Pac 12 ratings wise to UC Davis is Colorado and the Utes were just favored at home by 9 vs the Buffaloes. Value is on UC Davis and we think they keep this one fairly close. |
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03-13-18 | Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 68-80 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Okie State is still in recovery mode after learning they did not make the NCAA tourney just 48 hours ago. The Cowboys felt they deserved to be in the Dance and playing with emotion in tonight’s game in front of what we heard will be a sparse crowd will be very tough. OSU head coach Mike Boynton summed up his team’s feelings after being left out of the Dance. "It's really, really hard when you set some goals and you feel like you're getting so close to achieving those goals and some of it you obviously don't do as well in controlling and then a decision comes that you just fell short," Boynton said Monday morning. While FGCU, who was the best team in the Atlantic Sun winning the regular season by 2 full games, was also disappointed in the outcome of the tourney as they lost in the Championship, they’ve had more time to recover. That loss occurred on March 4th so they’ve had 9 days to rest up, recover from the disappointment and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to have an opportunity to play a Power 5 team in round one. This is a very solid program having just won 20+ games for the 6th straight season. The Eagles made the NCAA last year and gave Florida State all they could handle in round one losing by 6. They can shoot the ball very well (21st nationally in eFG%) and they are a solid rebounding team which makes them a dangerous underdog. We like FGCU to hang around in this one and give OSU all they can handle. Take the points. |
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03-13-18 | Boston College +5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boston College +5 over Western Kentucky, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET We think this is a very tough spot for Western Kentucky. They were seconds away from the NCAA tournament just 72 hours ago in Texas and now they have to refocus and play a game that they may not be all the excited to be in. Their CUSA Championship game Saturday night was a big disappointment as they were favored by -5.5 vs Marshall but lost by 1 point. WKY trailed by 12 with 3:30 remaining and rallied late and had a chance to win. It was a Marshall team they had beaten twice during the regular season so you know the Hilltopper players were confident they were going to the Big Dance. BC, on the other hand, will be excited to be here. They haven’t been in any post-season tourney since 2011 and after finishing 7-11 in the ACC they knew they weren’t going dancing unless they won the ACC tournament which was not realistic. The Eagles played very well in the ACC tourney beating Georgia Tech by 10, then topping NCAA bound NC State before losing on Thursday to Clemson by 8. BC has now had 5 full days off to rest and get ready for this one which gives them the advantage. Not to mention, they have the best player on the floor in Jerome Robinson (ACC first team) and possibly the 2nd best player on the floor in point guard Ky Bowman. The Eagles have obviously played the much tougher schedule and they have beaten the likes of Duke, NC State, Florida State, Syracuse, and Miami FL. Meanwhile WKY played only 4 teams all season long that made it into the tourney and lost both games to Middle Tennessee State, the only team in CUSA that could come close to making a case for an at large bid. Too many points here as BC should have a great shot to win this game outright. |
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03-11-18 | Texas-Arlington +2 v. Georgia State | Top | 61-74 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington +2 over Georgia State, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET As most of you know we’ve followed this UTA team very close all year and been very successful on or against them, including our College Game of the Year winner just a few weeks ago against this very Georgia State team. The Mavs are the most veteran team in the Sun Belt and one of the most veteran teams in the entire nation with 5 seniors in the starting line up. After winning the league last year with a 14-4 record but losing in the conference tourney, they had one goal coming into this season. Make it to the Big Dance. They didn’t win the regular season title and seemed disinterested at times despite their talent. That’s not the case now as they are on the door step to attaining their one goal this year and have been playing very well. Yesterday they beat UL Lafayette who won the Sun Belt by a full 4 games with a 16-2 record. UTA lost both regular season meetings to ULL by double digits and then beat them yesterday which tells you how good this team can be when focused. They split their two meetings this year with Georgia State winning by 8 at home and losing by 6 on the road. A few quick take aways from those two meetings. Ga State relies heavily on the 3 and took 60 attempts from beyond the arc in the two meetings. That doesn’t bode well today as UTA defends the 3 pretty well (109th nationally) and with this being their 3rd game in 3 days, Georgia State’s “shooting legs” may not be up to par. Also the Panthers are one of the thinnest teams in the nation ranking 342nd in bench minutes so 3 games in 3 days will be more taxing on this team than many others. Another key takeaway was that UTA absolutely dominated the boards at +26 in their two meetings. That won’t change here. The Mavs also get to the FT line more often on the season and they were +12 in FT attempts vs Ga State. If those 3 things hold true again today, which we believe they will, we have no doubt Arlington will win this game and move on to the Big Dance. |
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03-10-18 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky -5.5 | 67-66 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Western Kentucky -5.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET The WKU Hilltoppers have been one of the better teams in the conference all season long and have played a schedule that is 100 spots tougher than Marshall. In fact, Western has 11 wins this season over teams ranked in the top 150 by Kenpom while the Herd have just 4. WKU has 10 wins this season against programs with at least 20 victories: Old Dominion (3 times), UAB (2), Marshall (2), Purdue (1), Wright State (1) and Nicholls (1). WKU ranks in the top 10 in the country in field goal percentage and is first in Conference USA at 49.8 percent. WKU is tied with Villanova for the national lead with 11 games shooting 55 percent or better this season. Conversely, the Herd are ranked 291st in 2pt FG percentage at 45.5%. That also ties into the fact that the Hilltoppers have outscored their opponents 1,318-955 in the paint this season. That's significant here considering Marshall is not great defensively and allow foes to hit 44.7% of their FG attempts which is 196th in the nation. WKU beat Marshall twice this season and it's clear they have a matchup advantage that the Herd can't overcome. In the two meetings, Marshall shot just 40% in both while WKU shot 48% in one meeting and 62% in the other. The other glaring difference was the Hilltoppers rebounding advantage of +12 and +19 in the two meetings. When it comes to tournaments we like put more stock into what teams road statistics are. WKU has a +2.9 point differential away from home this year, while Marshall is minus -1.6PPG. Again, that's with Western playing a much tougher schedule. Western Kentucky by double-digits here! |
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03-10-18 | Toledo v. Buffalo -6.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -6.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET Buffalo has been the best team in the MAC from beginning to end this season and we expect them to roll to an easy win and head to the Big Dance. Both are playing their 3rd game in 3 days, however Buffalo has been able to spread their minutes out with two easy wins. On the flip side, Toledo comes into this one having won by 2 on Thursday and by 1 yesterday and their starters logged big minutes in both. Speaking of starters, Toledo’s top player, Treshaun Fletcher (18 PPG), injured his knee 20 seconds into last night’s game and was unable to return. He also tweaked that same knee the night before vs Miami OH so it’s an obvious problem. He’s listed as questionable today and if he doesn’t play the Rockets are in huge trouble. Even if he does play there’s no way he can be 100% if he couldn’t even come back in a do or die tight game last night. Both of these offenses are very good ranking 1 and 2 in the MAC in offensive efficiency. However, the Bulls have a big edge on defense ranking 2nd in the MAC in defensive efficiency to 8th for Toledo. Buffalo is also better on the board and they turn the ball over less. These two met once this year and Toledo shot 54% overall and 50% from 3 point range and STILL lost by 10. Toledo’s Fletcher scored 27 points in that game and was 10 of 14 from the field and they still lost by 10. If he can’t go today it’s over. Even if he can, we still like Buffalo to win this one easily. |
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03-10-18 | San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* San Diego State -4 over New Mexico, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET SDSU is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won 8 straight by an average margin of 14 PPG. We were on them on Thursday as they rolled over a very solid Fresno team. Yesterday they played the best team in the MWC, Nevada, and won 90-73 but it wasn’t nearly that close. The Aztecs actually led 55-25 at half, were outscored by 13 in the 2nd half and still won by 17! So the Aztecs have beaten the best team in the MWC and the 4th ranked team in the MWC with ease coming into today’s game. New Mexico has had the much easier route to get here beating Wyoming (7th rated team in the league) and Utah State (8th rated team in the league). We were on the Lobos yesterday as they were in a great spot playing a Utah State team playing their 3rd straight game and their guards had logged big minutes. That was going to be a problem against NM’s press and we anticipated tired legs for USU and we were correct. This is a completely different situation. San Diego State is very good at not turning the ball over (2nd in the MWC) and they were able to spread their minutes out with 2 easy wins coming into this one. These are two of the better offenses in the league (2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency) but SDSU has a huge edge defensively (4th in defensive efficiency to 11th for New Mexico). The Aztecs are peaking on the defensive end as well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession. On the other hand, New Mexico has allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession and the two games they didn’t were both against Utah State. These two met once this year and SDSU was a 4 point favorite @ New Mexico so this line favors the Aztecs in our opinion. SDSU lost that road game by 4 giving them a little more motivation here. We like San Diego State to win & cover and move on to the NCAA tourney. |
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03-09-18 | Utah State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -3.5 over Utah State, Friday at 11:30 PM ET Tough spot and tough match up for Utah State in this game. The Aggies are playing their 3rd game in 3 days which included a come from behind win and upset of Boise yesterday. Their top 2 players McEwen and Merrill played 78 and 75 minutes respectively. They can’t afford to be gassed here as they are the two responsible for breaking New Mexico’s full court pressure. That’s where USU will have problems in this game. The Lobos force more turnovers than any other team in the MWC while Utah State turns the ball over almost 19% of the time which is 206th nationally. In their 2nd meeting this year, when New Mexico was healthy and at full strength, the Lobos won by 15 and USU turned the ball over on a whopping 33% of their possessions. The Aggies did win the first meeting 89-80 at home, however New Mexico, who is one of the deepest teams in the nation, was banged up and played only 6 players in the game. By comparison, when the Lobos are healthy, as they are now, they played an 8 or 9 man regular rotation. In yesterday’s 10 point win over Wyoming, the Lobos had 8 players play double digit minutes. New Mexico is fresh and they are easily the best shooting team in the MWC ranking #1 in eFG%, 2-point FG%, 3-point FG%, and FT%. They shouldn’t have any problem tonight vs a shaky USU defense (8th in the conference in defensive efficiency) that will be extra fatigued. Look for New Mexico’s pressure to really take control in the 2nd half and the Lobos to pull away. |
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03-09-18 | Oregon v. USC -2.5 | Top | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -2.5 over Oregon, Friday at 11:30 PM ET USC is playing very well as of late and they are in the much better spot here. The Trojans handled Oregon State relatively easily yesterday (13 point win) and were able to get their bearings in their first game in a new venue (T Mobile Arena in Vegas). They come into this game having won 5 of their last 6 with their only loss coming to arch rival UCLA. They have also proven they can get it done away from home going 10-6 this year in road/neutral site games (12-4 ATS in those games). They have beaten the Ducks twice already this year and they catch Oregon in a terrible situation. The Ducks will be playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and they weren’t able to “relax” in either of their first two games as they come from 11 down in the 2nd half to beat Washington State in OT on Wednesday and then again came from 11 down in the 2nd half to nip Utah 68-66 last night. Their top 4 players have played 76, 75, 68, and 69 minutes in those two games Those were two physically and emotionally taxing games in which Oregon was playing from behind for the vast majority of each. That could leave very little in the tank for the Ducks tonight. USC has the better offense (3rd most efficient in Pac 12 to Oregon’s 4th), the much better defense (2nd most efficient to 9th for Oregon), the outrebounded the Ducks in their two meetings (+8), and had fewer turnovers. Those advantages will only be magnified tonight by Oregon’s tired legs so we’ll lay this small number. |
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03-09-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +2.5 | 66-63 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA PLAYON 8* Texas Tech +2.5 over West Virginia, Friday at 9:30 PM ET We feel the wrong team is favored here and the value is absolutely on Texas Tech. At worst this should be a pick-em type game and we’re getting more than a bucket. The key to beating WVU is handling their press and keeping them off the offensive glass. In their two meetings Tech handled the pressure well with just 13 turnovers in each game and that includes their game @ WVU where the Raiders played without their top player Keenan Evans who is a key cog in breaking the press. Tech also played that second game in WVU without starting forward Justin Gray so they were down 2 starters in that 10 point loss. Tech is also 2nd in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding and did a decent job holding the Mountaineers in check on the boards. The Red Raider actually were +8 on the boards in the two meetings combined. Also Texas Tech should have a decent advantage at the FT line in this one. The are #1 in the Big 12 in FTA/FGA and over 22% of their points come from the line. WVU fouls more than any team in the conference and nearly 25% of opponents points come from the strip when playing the Mountaineers. They had 53 FT attempts in their two meetings combined and we don’t see that changing here. Our feeling on West Virginia is this, if you haven’t seen their press, it can be tough to deal with. However, this will be the 3rd time TT has faced them this year giving the Raiders the advantage in our opinion. Also getting points with the best defense in the Big 12 (Tech #1 in defensive efficiency) is a bonus. Take Tech and the points. |
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03-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -5.5 over Appalachian State, Friday at 3:00 PM ET We’ve used UTA a number of times this year with very solid success. They are a very talented team, possibly the most talented in the Sun Belt, that simply underachieved during the regular season. They won the Sun Belt title last year going 14-4 in league play and returned nearly all of the key contributors. They were the favorites to win the conference again this year yet disappointed with a 10-8 record. When motivated this team can be very good and they will be just that here. With 5 senior starters they are set to make a run toward the NCAA tourney after falling short of their goal last year losing to Texas State in the semifinals. The Mavs have hit their stride winning 6 of their last 8 games including a 12 point win over this App State team on February 1st. That was a game in which UTA lost one of their best players (Kaelon Wilson) to injury just 4 minutes into the game. He has since come back and played very well leading the Mavericks to 3 straight wins to close out the season. App State was 9-9 in Sun Belt play but did their damage against the bottom half of the league. Against the top 5 teams in the league (ULL, Georgia State, UTA, Georgia Southern, and Troy) the Mountaineers were just 2-5 with both wins coming at home. UTA, on the other hand, has beaten every team in the conference not name ULL at least once. We’re getting line value here with the underrated Mavs as they were favored by 10 at home vs App State and favored by 4.5 on the road. Arlington takes care of business here and gets the easy win. |
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03-08-18 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan -6 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan -6 over Akron, Thursday at 9 PM ET This is a great spot to play on EMU and fade the Zips of Akron. Eastern is rested, playing well while Akron is off a rare road upset win. The Zips have one really good player in Daniel Utomi who's averaging 16.8 points per game. Utomi poured in 26 points in their opening round upset win over WMU but will have a much tougher time here against an outstanding EMU defense. EMU has way more depth with three players scoring in double figures led by 3rd team All-MAC Elijah Minnie at 16.8 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting from the floor. 1st team All-MAC selection James Thompson IV follows with 15.3 points per game. Paul Jackson rounds out the double-digit scoring, averaging 14.9. In other words, Eastern can get it done from several different guys while Akron relies on one. The Eagles are 5th in the MAC in offensive efficiency ratings while Akron is 10th. On the defensive end of the floor the Eagles have a MASSIVE advantage over the Zips with the #1 ranked DEFF unit in the MAC allowing just .994 points per possession. On the flip side, Akron is 2nd to last in the MAC allowing 1.115PPP. Defensively, EMU limits opponents to 67.2 points a night on 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 35.1 percent from downtown. Akron is the 277th ranked total D in the nation, 301st in EFG% D allowing 54.2%. Eastern comes into this game having won 6 straight games and 9 of eleven. In their last five games the Eagles have some impressive numbers including: +10PPG scoring differential, shooting nearly 52% and allowing just 41.5%. Akron has just 2 road wins all season long with a negative scoring differential of -10.5PPG while shooting under 44% as a team and allowing nearly 50%. Akron knocked off EMU last year in the tourney so expect payback here. Eagles by 10+. |
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03-08-18 | UNLV v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over UNLV, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET We think Nevada is in a great spot in their MWC opener today. We get by far the best team in the league coming off a loss @ San Diego State to end the season. It was just their 6th loss of the season and they have fared quite well coming off a setback. They did lost back to back games in early December vs Big 12 powers TCU and Texas Tech (one in OT and the other by 4 points) but beyond that, after their losses the Wolfpack bounced back for wins by margins of 25, 15, 15, and 10 points. Before losing to a red hot San Diego State team to close out the regular season, this Nevada team played UNLV right here at the Thomas & Mack Center. That was just one week ago. The final score of that one was Nevada 101-75 and the Wolfpack led by as many as 33 points in the 2nd half of that game. While one might say that UNLV will be more than ready here after that beat down just 8 days ago, we don’t think they are playing well enough or have the horses to keep this one tight. Plus their home court advantage has been anything but an advantage this year as the Rebels lost 5 home games in conference play alone. The Rebels held on for dear life yesterday beating 9th place Air Force in overtime. All 5 starters played 31+ minutes in that game just 24 hours ago and they basically played a 6 man rotation with only one other player getting to double digit minutes. Vegas hit over 49% of their shots in that game and were +13 points at the FT line yet still had to hold on in overtime vs a lower tier MWC team. Coming into that game, UNLV had lost 5 straight to close out the regular season with 4 of those coming by double digits. They looked like a tired team to us and yesterday’s situation won’t help. Nevada is rested and has all the motivation in the world to win this tourney. They are a great shooting team ranking 8th nationally in offensive efficiency and 12th in 3 point percentage. They face a UNLV defense that has been below average this year ranking 9th in the MWC in defensive efficiency and 9th in 3 point defense. Air Force hit 13 of 27 from deep yesterday and the Falcons came in ranking 295th nationally in 3 point shooting so that does not bode well for this Rebel defense this afternoon. Nevada averaged 90 PPG in their 2 meetings with UNLV this year and we expect them to roll up a big win here. |
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03-07-18 | Oregon State -2 v. Washington | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon State -2 over Washington, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This will be a curious line to most. Why is OSU favored by 2 on a neutral court over Washington? OSU is 15-15 and finished 7-11 in the Pac 12 while the Huskies are 20-11 overall and 10-8 in league play. Many will look at that alone and side with Washington but we like Oregon State here and feel they are definitely the better team. Washington is a young team that wasn’t expected to do much at all this season. They won 10 of their 13 non-conference games with most wins coming against fairly weak competition. They then began the Pac 12 slate winning 7 of their first 10 games. However, teams have figured them out and they also look like they’ve hit a wall losing 5 of their last 8 games. Their lone wins down the stretch came at home vs Colorado who has been terrible on the road, at home vs this Oregon State team by 2 points, and @ Cal, the worst team in the Pac 12. Their 2 point in home win over OSU was bolstered by their 23 makes at the FT line (just 12 made FT’s for OSU). The Beavers, on the other hand, are playing quite well down the stretch. Their final 4 games included an OT loss to Pac 12 champ Arizona, a win over Arizona State, a 2 point loss @ Washington, and a destruction of Washington State on the road. They have been shooting the ball very well hitting over 50% of their attempts over the last 5 games. They face a Washington defense that looks good on paper ranking 3rd in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense, however teams seemed to have figured them out their zone defense the 2nd time around with opponents hitting 47% of their shots the last 10 games. OSU definitely has them figured out making 56% of their shots in the two meetings combined. It’s definitely a funky line and a young Washington team has some extra pressure as this has been tabbed a “must win” if they want to stay alive for a potential NCAA bid. Most likely they’d have to win at least a couple of games in this tourney. We agree with the oddsmakers here and expect Oregon State to win and cover here. |
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03-07-18 | UTEP +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UTEP +3 over UTSA, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET The Conference USA tourney this year is played at a new venue called the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, TX. It’s a Jerry Jones/Dallas Cowboys project and houses a full football field. It is not a basketball venue and CUSA will attempt a new concept with 2 games being played at once. Similar to an AAU event where multiple games are going in the same venue. We’ve been told the sight lines and back drop are not ideal for shooting which, in our opinion, will not favor UTSA here. That’s because the Roadrunners get more points from beyond the arc than any other team in CUSA (41%). Relying heavily on outside shooting will most likely be a problem in this event. On top of that, UTSA lost their best player and one of their top shooters, Jhivvan Jackson, to a season ending knee injury on February 24th. They have played just 2 games without Jackson, one an 18 point loss @ UNT and another a win over Rice, the second worst team in CUSA who had a 7-24 record and didn’t even qualify for the conference post-season tourney. We think UTSA will struggle at this venue, especially without Jackson running the point. UTEP was expecting to be one of the better teams in the conference this season. It didn’t go as planned with head coach Tim Floyd resigning during the season which obviously caused some major distractions. However, the Miners rallied under interim coach Phil Johnson winning 4 of their last 6 games including a season finale win @ North Texas. We feel this team is better than their record and they have obviously not quit on the season. They should have confidence here as they took UTSA to the wire in both games losing each by just 4 points. Their game @ UTSA came down to the final possession. That was when UTSA was at full strength. This one sets up for UTEP to pull the upset. |
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03-07-18 | Louisville +1 v. Florida State | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville +1 over Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET These two split this year with each winning on the road by 4 points. In the 3rd meeting we have to side with the much better defense and that is Louisville. The Cards rank 17th nationally in defensive efficiency and 13th nationally in eFG% defense. That is in comparison to FSU which ranks 13th in the ACC – not nationally – in defensive efficiency and 10th in the ACC in eFG% defense. The Noles also rank dead last in the conference at defending the arc which should give the Cards a nice advantage from the perimeter as they have the 3rd best 3 point shooting percentage in the ACC. On the flip side FSU is a poor 3 point shooting team (13th in the ACC) so they must get their points inside. That plays right into Louisville’s defensive strength as they protect rim very well (8.3% block shot rate – 2nd in the ACC) and allow opponents to shoot only 44% from inside the arc (13th nationally). FSU is normally a solid shooting team inside the arc hitting almost 55% of their shots. However, in their two games vs Louisville the Seminoles made only 42% and 44% inside the arc. If Louisville can keep the rebounds fairly even, which they will focus heavily on here, we like them to walk away with a win. |
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03-06-18 | South Dakota -1 v. South Dakota State | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over South Dakota State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 South Dakota State won the Summit League with a 13-1 record and South Dakota was 2nd with an 11-3 mark. We, however, think South Dakota is the better team and like them to get the win here. Why is the 2nd place team favored over the 1st place team? The oddsmakers agree with us. These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court. The results, however, definitely favored South Dakota. The Coyotes rolled over SDSU in the first meeting winning by 19. In the rematch @ South Dakota State they almost pulled the upset losing by just 4 in a game and the Coyotes led that one with under 5:00 remaining. In that game, with SDSU as the host, it was basically dead even stat wise, SDSU just made a few more FT’s. The Coyotes shot 47% in the 2 games combined compared to 42% for the Jackrabbits. South Dakota hit 42% of their 3 point attempts to just 36% for the Jackrabbits. The rebounding was close to a wash with each home team controlling the boards. The point differential in the 2 games was +15 in favor of South Dakota and that was despite the fact they attempted 10 fewer FT’s. South Dakota was the top defensive team in the Summit all season long leading the league in PPG allowed, defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and opponent turnover rate. The key to beating SDSU is slowing down their primary offensive weapon, big man Mike Daum (24 PPG). South Dakota is one of the few teams in the league that can do that as their big man Tyler Hagedorn matches up very well with Daum. In their two games he held Daum to 43% shooting and 18 PPG which are below his season averages. The best player on the court in both games was South Dakota’s guard Matt Mooney who racked up 63 points on over 50% shooting in the two match ups. Nothing changes here as SDSU is unable to contain Mooney and the Coyotes move on to the NCAA tourney. |
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03-05-18 | BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over St Marys, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2 We like the points here as St Marys was struggling a bit down the stretch losing 2 of their final 5 regular season games and then had problems yesterday with Pepperdine winning by just 3. That’s a Pepperdine team that finished dead last in the WCC with an overall record of 6-26 and St Marys largest lead of the entire game was only 4 points. The Gaels exerted plenty of physical and mental energy coming from 15 down and holding on in a game they where they were favored by 15.5 points. All 5 of the Gael’s starters played 32+ minutes and head coach Randy Bennett basically went with a 6 man rotation. BYU was hoping for this match up. That’s because in last year’s semi final game St Mary’s embarrassed the Cougs winning 81-50. BYU played the Gaels tough in both match ups this year losing the first game in OT and the second meeting by 13, however the game was much closer than that for most of the way. They match up well with STM as the Cougars defend the 3 well and they don’t send teams to the FT line very often which keeps the Gaels and their 77% FT shooting from racking up free points. BYU shoots well enough to keep up here and they don’t allow extra possession ranking #1 in the WCC in defensive rebounding. With St Marys struggling a bit and BYU extra motivated and capable, we think this game goes to the wire tonight. Take the points. |
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03-05-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wright State -3.5 over UW Milwaukee, Monday at 9:30 PM ET There are times we take the revenge angle into account and times we don’t. Sometimes we feel is just doesn’t matter. In this game, we think it does. Why? Because the better team, Wright State, lost both games to UWM and it wasn’t a poor match up issue in our opinion. The Raiders finished 14-4 in the league which was good for 2nd place and 2 of their 4 losses came at the hands of the Panthers. It was simply a matter of UWM shooting very well and Wright State shooting poorly. What makes us think this game will be different is a look at the season long stats. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team (9th in the Horizon in offensive efficiency) and a poor 3 point shooting team (207th nationally). They are facing a Wright State defense that is very solid ranking 2nd in the Horizon in defensive efficiency and 54th nationally. Yet in their 2 games vs Wright State, UWM shot 52% overall and a ridiculous 54% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect them to come anywhere close to those numbers tonight as you can expect the Raider defense to play with a chip on their shoulder after those 2 performances. In their most recent meeting, a 74-73 UWM win @ Wright State, the Panthers shot 59% from the field (41% for the Raiders) and hit 54% from deep (35% for Wright) yet only won by a single point. The Raiders should get more shots in this game as they outrebounded UWM in both and had fewer turnovers in both. Over the 2 games Wright took 22 more shots so look for them to get more opportunities again tonight. The difference will be the shooting percentages which will push much closer to the norm giving Wright State a win and cover tonight. Both played yesterday with UWM going to the wire with Illinois Chicago while WSU rolled to an easy win over UWGB and was able to spread out the minutes. Wright is in a good spot here and we’ll grab them at this low number. |
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03-04-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Illinois-Chicago +1.5 | 80-75 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over UW Milwaukee, Sunday at 5:00 PM ET We love the match up here as Illinois Chicago comes into this game playing extremely well and the line doesn’t reflect it. The Flames won 9 of their last 12 games and are coming off back to back home losses but that was against Northern Kentucky and Wright State, the two best teams in the conference. Their last three losses have come by just 21 total points too so it’s not like they got blown out. Illinois Chicago has a clear match up advantage over UWM as they beat them handily twice this season by 18 in Milwaukee and 15 at home. Ill Chi has the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the Horizon at 1.061 points per possession while UWM is 9th at 1.011PPP. Defensively they are near identical allowing 1.012PPP and 1.013PPP. This game is at a neutral site and Illinois Chicago has won 7 straight road games while the Panthers are 2-5 SU their last seven away from home. UIC has 12 conference wins this season which has come by an average of 11.2PPG. Take the Flames here. |
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03-04-18 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro -5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET Greensboro or the Spartans carried the nation’s 7th ranked scoring defense into their last game against the Citadel and they lived up to the ranking, holding the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense to 25 points under their season average. UNCG allows just .952 points per possession which is best in the conference and 41st overall in the nation. Wofford on the other hand isn’t nearly as good defensively allowing 1.061 points per possession which is 231st in the nation. Wofford has been up and down in the second half of the season by going just 6-6 SU their last twelve games and are coming off a big revenge win over Mercer yesterday. Greensboro has been the best and most consistent team in the SoCon this year with wins in 14 of their last sixteen games. In those 14 wins, all but one has come by double-digits, so we’re not intimidated by the spread on this game today. Greensboro beat Wofford by 4 early in the season at home then won by 10 at Wofford just a few weeks ago. Take the best team, with the best defense and lay the short number with Greensboro who is 10-4 ATS their last 14 games. |
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03-04-18 | Towson v. William & Mary +1 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* William & Mary +1 over Towson, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET Two teams headed in opposite directions here. W&M played well to end the regular season winning 2 of their last 3. That’s not a huge sample obviously but who they played in those games and how they played against them made us sit up and take notice. The Tribe beat conference champ College of Charleston to end the season and went to Northeastern, who had a 14-4 record in CAA play which was the same as CofC, and lost by 2. W&M led their game @ Northeastern late and couldn’t hold on. Towson closed the CAA season winning just 3 of their final 9 games. Their 3 wins were all close coming by 2, 2, and 4 points and all were against teams that finished tied for last in the CAA (Delaware (twice) and Drexel). We also like the double revenge factor here as Towson topped W&M twice, including once in overtime. Those games were way back in January and we these are 2 different teams right now with W&M getting better, while Towson is not. W&M is a great shooting team and we are not overstating that fact. This team ranks 2nd nationally in eFG% with only Villanova ranking higher. They are also the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the nation and THE BEST free throw shooting team hitting 81% of their freebies. They are facing a Towson team that allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot 49% and has a tendency to foul quite a bit. That’s a bad recipe here for the Tigers and we like William & Mary to get the win in this game. |
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03-04-18 | Illinois State +8.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois State + over Loyola Chicago, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET We don’t need to get too in depth here as many of the reasons we like ISU are the same reasons we took them yesterday. When at full strength, this team is good. They haven’t been a full strength at times this year but have been as of late. With their top 3 players in the lineup (Yarbrough, Evans, and Fayne) the Rebirds have won 8 of their last 9. Their only loss during that stretch came at Loyola by 7 points, a game ISU led on the road by 6 with under 10 minutes remaining. It was Loyola’s final home game as well and ISU hung in until the end. Speaking of hanging in, the Redbirds did so on both occasions vs the MVC champs losing each by 7. ISU topped #2 seed Southern Illinois yesterday despite simply not playing very well on offense hitting only 37% of their shots and missing 10 FT’s. As we said yesterday, we felt ISU when at full strength was the 2nd best team in the conference. Loyola has proven they are the best but 8 full points better than ISU on a neutral court? We don’t think so. The Ramblers struggled a bit with two mid to lower tier MVC teams beating UNI by 4 and Bradley by 8 in their first two games. Loyola was favored by -6 and -6.5 in those two games and now they are laying 8 against the what we feel is the 2nd best team in the conference. Too many here as Illinois State will again give Loyola all they can handle. |
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03-03-18 | Illinois State +1.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State +1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET Illinois State is an under rated team coming into this tourney. The Redbirds were one of the favorites to win the MVC coming into the year but injuries and suspensions hurt them at times this season and they finished in 3rd place with a 10-8 league mark. In our opinion, when ISU is healthy, which they are now, they are better than any team in the MVC not named Loyola. They have won 7 of their last 10 games, however that is even a bit deceiving as 2 of their losses during that stretch ISU played without at least one of their 3 best players (Yarbrough, Evans, and Fayne). With them in the line up they have won 7 of their last 8 with their only loss coming by 7 at MVC champ Loyola, a game the Redbirds led by 6 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. Yesterday the beat Indiana State 77-70 and that was with Yarbrough, possible the top player in the entire conference, sitting out 14 of 20 minutes in the first half due to foul trouble and he still scored 24 points. Southern Illinois finished 2nd in the league but we feel they are a bit overvalued coming in. Over their last 3 games they were destroyed by 19 at home vs Loyola, lost by 30 @ Evansville, and then beat Missouri State by 4 yesterday. That was a Missouri State team that had the wheels fall off the 2nd half of the season losing 10 of their final 13 games. The Bears were not a good team coming into this tourney and still gave SIU all they could handle. These teams split this year with SIU winning at home by 4 points and ISU winning at home by 8 (without Evans in the line up). ISU covered both and they have dominated the money in this series with a 20-6 ATS mark the last 26 meetings. With this line set near a pick-em, we’ll take the team we feel is better and that is definitely Illinois State. |
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03-02-18 | Indiana State v. Illinois State -1 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -1 over Indiana State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET ISU was one of the favorites to win the MVC when the season began but injuries and suspensions have this team coming into the conference tournament as the #3 seed. The Redbirds are now as healthy as they have been all season and were down the stretch when the won 6 of their last 9 games. In their season finale ISU took conference champ Loyola to the wire on the road blowing a 6 point second half lead in the 68-61 loss. It was the closest that anyone in the MVC had played Loyola on the road this season. We think ISU is under rated coming into this game. Indiana State was headed in the opposite direction heading into this weekend’s tourney losing 7 of their final 10 games. Four of those games were at home which is very concerning for the Sycamores. Offense and shooting were the problems as Indiana State shot just 37% over their final 5 games and did not top 1.00 point per possession in their last 3 games. These two teams rely more heavily on the 3 point shot than any other teams in the Missouri Valley. Both shoot it at a fairly even rate with Illinois State hitting 34% and Indiana State 35%. The difference is defensively where the Redbirds are #1 in the conference at defending the 3 while the Sycamores rank 9th in that category. We feel Illinois State is absolutely the better team now that they are at full strength and we think they are good enough to win this tourney. |
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03-02-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -10 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -10 over Iowa State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 This is simply a huge home finale for the Sooners. A team that was once a cinch to make the Big Dance now probably has to play well tonight and possibly even in the Big 12 tourney. A starter and one of OU’s key performers, Christian James, summed this game up yesterday. "Words can't describe the passion that will be shown tomorrow," James said. "There's nothing else to be said... Lay it all on the line." Good think for Oklahoma they are at home. This team has been dreadful on the road but at home they are 12-2 on the season shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 93 PPG. That should continue tonight as they face a tired ISU team whose defense has allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cyclones look like a team that is out of gas to us. They’ve had injuries down the stretch including 2 starters Babb & Young who are out for the season. This team, that was already thin, is being held together by scotch tape. What tells us they are in trouble is they were very solid at home beating some very good teams this year in upset fashion. However down the stretch they’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games and now that can’t even win at home losing 3 in a row, including a 9 point loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday. Now on the road just a few days later (where they are 0-9 on the season) and already locked into last place in the Big 12, we see this game as having blowout potential. This line may seem a bit high but remember just a few weeks ago OU was favored by 6 @ Iowa State (Sooners lost 88-80) so this line actually isn’t crazy high. We see ISU coming in and simply wanting to get through this game and put their emphasis on the Big 12 tourney next week. OU, on the other hand, will put everything they have into this one. Oklahoma rolls. |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2.5 v. Davidson | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +2.5 over Davidson, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network URI had their most embarrassing performance of the season on Tuesday night. The best team in the A10, who already had the #1 seed clinched heading into Tuesday’s Senior night, was blasted at home by St Joes 78-48 as 13.5 point favorite. After the game Ram’s head coach Danny Hurley didn’t mince words. “Disappointed in this group of guys going out that way in their last home game,” Hurley said. “Brutal night. We’ve got to respond quickly.” You can bet the best team by a long shot in this conference (full 2 game lead even with the loss) will come to play on Friday night. Now add in the fact they are an underdog and you know this team will have a chip on their shoulder. They are catching Davidson in a great spot here. That’s because the Wildcats played in a huge game on Tuesday night battling St Bonnies on the road for 2nd place. The game went to triple OT (Davidson lost 117-113) , didn’t end until almost 1:00 AM ET, and 3 of Davidson’s starters played 50+ minutes in the game. The Wildcat’s are already a thin team (321st nationally in bench minutes) that basically plays a 7 man rotation. Now they must turn around after that extra physical & emotional road battle and play a deep team who’s seniors (5 senior starters) will be out for blood. URI (23-5 overall & 15-2 in the A10) is a physical team who is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Atlantic 10 in turnovers forced which is a bad match up for a tired team playing their 3rd game in 6 days. Davidson shot 49% from the field in their first meeting and still lost by 13. URI bounce back with a big performance and gets a road win. |
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03-02-18 | Michigan v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +4.5 over Michigan, Friday at 2:30 PM ET The Huskers should absolutely be the fresher team here as they did not play yesterday while the Wolverines were pushed to OT by Iowa. Michigan relies more heavily on the 3 pointer than any other team in the Big Ten with 38% of their points coming from deep (most in the conference). Thus when they don’t shoot it well from deep they can be in a bit of trouble. That happened on Thursday when they hit only 3 of 19 from beyond the arc and were almost taken down by an Iowa team that was just 4-14 in league play. The problem for Michigan in this one is they now face the best team in the Big Ten at defending the arc. Nebraska allows just 29% from deep (#1 in the Big Ten) and they also rank 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency. It’s a bad match up for Michigan. In their lone meeting this year the Huskers held the Wolverine shooters to just 4 of 18 from 3 point land and cruised to an easy 20 point win. Nebraska is also playing for their NCAA lives. They are a true bubble team and need to win this game and probably one more to have any chance to make the Big Dance. They are red hot coming into this tournament winning 8 of their last 9 games and we like them to keep this close throughout. And if it is close as we expect, Michigan’s 65% FT shooting (334th nationally) will come into play. Nebraska wins this one. |