09-28-19 |
Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska |
Top |
48-7 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 9 m |
Show
|
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195
Ohio State continues to come out and play great in the first half. Many of their games they lead by so much at half they take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. They have outscored their 4 opponents 135-18 in the first half this season. On the year, the Buckeyes have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD’s on 19 of those (60%). We see no way this poor Nebraska defense has any chance of slowing down the Bucks. The Huskers looked OK vs South Alabama (allowed 21 points) and Northern Illinois (allowed 8 points), however those 2 teams are ranked 118th and 110th respectively in total offense. Colorado lit them up for 34 points & Illinois scored 28 last week and those two teams are ranked 56th and 89th in total offense. You get where we are going here. OSU will be, by far, the best offense they have faced this season. They have scored 51 on Indiana (30 in the first half) and IU has allowed a total of 27 points in their other 3 games. They scored 42 (28 at half) on a very good Cincinnati defense that is allowing 13.5 PPG in their other games this season. Last week they put it all together and rolled up 76 points (49 at half) vs Miami (Oh). Can Nebraska keep up here? We don’t think so especially in the first half. After an off year in 2018, the OSU defense ranks 2nd nationally behind only Wisconsin allowing 222 YPG and they’ve only given up 36 total points in 4 games on the season. We see Ohio State getting a big lead early here and we’ll lay the points (-9.5 at time of publishing this) in the first half Saturday evening.
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09-28-19 |
SMU v. South Florida +8 |
|
48-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* South Florida Bulls (+) over SMU Mustangs, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #122
SMU is off of an upset win over rival TCU last week as they beat the Horned Frogs outright as an 8 point underdog in the Iron Skillet rivalry. Not only was that a huge win for the Mustangs, this is also the first time in 35 years that the Ponies have opened up a season with 4 straight wins. There is a good chance that perfect start comes to an end here! Traveling to the heat and humidity of South Florida after a grueling and emotionally draining 41-38 win over a fierce rival is certainly not an ideal situation. Magnifying the situational edge for the Bulls here is that they are coming off a bye week. South Florida has covered 4 of 5 (and all 5 victories were SU wins) the last 5 times they have been off a bye week. Also, the past 4 seasons the Bulls are 6-1 ATS when they are at home and their prior game was also at home. Even though SMU's game last week was in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the fact is that it was a road game as it was at TCU. Now on the road again it is not a good spot for SMU. When the Mustangs are favored in the 2nd of back to back road games, as they are here, they have covered just once the past 8 times! Another edge here in the myriad of edges favoring USF in this match-up is the fact that USF has perennial doormat UConn on deck. As for SMU, the Mustangs have a home date with Tulsa on deck. That is the same Golden Hurricane team that only won 5 games the past two seasons but one of their 3 wins last season was the one that managed to upset Southern Methodist in the season finale. That SMU defeat prevented the Mustangs from going to a bowl in Sonny Dykes first season at the helm. Grab the big points with South Florida as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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09-28-19 |
Iowa State v. Baylor +3 |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #130
The Cyclones won last year's match-up but that was at Iowa State and the Bears actually outgained them by 150 yards in that game! This year it is Baylor that is the host and the Bears have a big edge here in that they have not even had to leave their home state yet for a game. For the Cyclones, they are playing their first road game of the season. Iowa State is off a huge win last week but that was against UL Monroe. Entering that game Iowa State was averaging just 15 points per game (not including overtime) in their first two games of the season. Baylor is off of what looks like a tight win last week against Rice but the Bears did have a 21-3 halftime edge in that game. Also, they outgained the Owls by nearly 200 yards in the victory and the fact is Rice has been a scrappier team this season as they are not laying down for opponents like they did last season. Baylor has covered 7 of the last 9 times they have been a home dog. The Bears have also covered 7 straight times when they are a coming off a non-conference game and now facing a conference opponent. This is the Big 12 opener for both teams. While Baylor plays with revenge this week, Iowa State has their first Big 12 revenge game next week hosting TCU. The Cyclones have failed to cover 6 of 7 times when they have the Horned Frogs on deck. Grab the points with Baylor as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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09-28-19 |
BYU -2.5 v. Toledo |
|
21-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
43 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* BYU Cougars (-) over Toledo Rcokets, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #131
The Cougars have played one of, if not the, toughest schedule in the nation this year to prepare them for this game. They are 2-2 and they’ve already faced four Power 5 schools (USC, Utah, Washington, and Tennessee). The first 3 are arguably the best 3 or certainly in the top 4 teams in the Pac 12. Last week we were on Washington who got the easy win vs BYU but we were actually impressed again with the Cougs. They put up 356 yards on a very good Washington defense and QB Wilson threw for 277 yards and looked sharp. We expect them to look very good against a Toledo defense that was shelled for almost 700 yards last week @ Colorado State. The Rockets were outgained by 175 yards in that game and remarkably pulled off the win 41-35. Not overly impressive vs a CSU team that came in 0-2 vs FBS teams getting outscored 107-65 in those 2 games (they did beat Western Illinois – FCS team). The Rockets have played only one team with a pulse and lost to Kentucky, a lower tier SEC team, by 14 points. Another advantage in our opinion is that BYU has a bye on deck – no look ahead game – while Toledo has a huge MAC rivalry game on deck with Western Michigan who is considered by many the other top team in the MAC West. BYU is 15-7 ATS their last 22 games and they’ve proven they can get it done on the road topping the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, and Tennessee since the start of last season. We’ll lay this small number with the better team taking a step down in competition level.
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09-27-19 |
Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
45-10 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105
Last season these teams also met in Duke's ACC opener. At the time the Blue Devils were rolling along with a 4-0 start to the season and had moved into the Top 25 for the first time. That came to an abrupt halt when, after 4 straight wins by an average victory of margin of 22.3 points per game, Duke got upended as a 7 point home favorite and lost by 17 points to Virginia Tech. The fact is that the Hokies have been a "thorn in the side" of David Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils and there is nothing sweeter than getting revenge in "their house" in a weeknight primetime game with the ESPN cameras rolling. Duke opened this season getting a beatdown at the hands of Alabama - just as most teams do when they face the Crimson Tide - but the Blue Devils responded with back to back dominating wins over much softer competition. The Hokies have been much less impressive as they opened the season losing at Boston College and Virginia Tech was favored in that game. The Hokies then followed that up with a couple of victories against lesser competition but they were very unimpressive in those games. Virginia Tech struggled against both Old Dominion and Furman in non-covering wins. The Hokies actually trailed Furman 14 to 3 at the half two weeks ago! Duke QB Quentin Harris is a senior and has run the ball well in addition to putting up solid numbers through the air. Harris will take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that fell off drastically last year (31 ppg and 439 ypg). Early indications this season are that the Hokies defensive struggles will continue in conference play as Boston College had 432 yards against Virginia Tech in the season opener (and conference opener) for the Hokies. In terms of Virginia Tech's history against Duke (with David Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils head coach), the dog has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, both teams enter off a bye week but it is the Blue Devils that have covered 5 in a row ATS when they are an underdog coming off a bye. Additionally, when Duke is off a non-conference game and on the road against a conference foe, the Blue Devils have covered 9 of the last 10 times. This is a triple revenge spot for Cutcliffe's team and they are undervalued considering how poorly Virginia Tech has played on both sides of the ball this season. Grab the points with Duke as a road dog in early evening action Friday.
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09-21-19 |
Utah State -4 v. San Diego State |
|
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399
Certainly San Diego State holds a large edge in this series as they have won 10 straight meetings. However, there have only been two recent meetings as Mountain West Conference foes and yet the Aztecs did dominate those as well as San Diego State won the two by an average margin of 27.5 points per victory! That said, it may have seemed surprising to see the Aggies open up as the favorite in this one, particularly since this game is at San Diego State. The fact is that this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds makers. The Aztecs offense is struggling badly this season as they are attempting to switch to a spread attack and it has not gone well. Typically a transition year can be painful and that is evident with what the San Diego State offense has displayed to this point. The Aztecs offense has averaged only 20 points per game this season. This may not sound so bad until you consider they have faced an FCS school (Weber State) as well as a New Mexico State team that has averaged 3 wins per season the past TEN years and a UCLA team that is off to a horrific start this season. That being said, San Diego State is going to find the going particularly tough against a Utah State team that averaged 47 points per game last season while allowing just 22 points a game! The Aggies came up just short at Wake Forest to open the season but the Demon Deacons look better this season than any of the 3 teams San Diego State has faced. Also, Utah State then got to enjoy a blowout win over an FCS school the next week and then a bye week last week. To say the least, the Aggies are VERY prepared as well as rested for their Mountain West opener against a team that has had their number. It is now payback time and the Aggies offense ranks in the Top 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency with 6.69 yards per play so far this season. This will be, by far, the toughest test that the Aztecs defense has faced this season and, per our computer math model, this one will turn into a road rout decided by a double digit margin. The Aztecs sputtering offense simply won't be able to keep up against a highly motivated and talented Aggies team that won 11 games last season and finally gets their first shot at San Diego States since the 2016 season. Lay the short number with Utah State in late night action Saturday.
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09-21-19 |
Washington -6 v. BYU |
Top |
45-19 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349
The Cougars are at home in this game and that is truly where their advantages begin and end. The Huskies are the better team all over the field and, from a situation standpoint, this is a fantastic spot for fading BYU. The Cougars have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation to open up this season. For Brigham Young, this will be their 4th straight game against a Power 5 Conference opponent. The Cougars suffered a home loss against Utah in BYU's home opener. Then they went on the road and won a dramatic multiple-OT game at Tennessee. The Cougars then came home and won another OT game against Southern Cal. To summarize, BYU has already played an SEC team and a pair of Pac-12 teams and now faces another Pac-12 team this week. Coming off back to back OT games (both wins) and truly getting dominated in their lone loss, we feel it all catches up with the Cougars here. BYU is facing a Washington team that blasted them 35 to 7 last season and the scoreboard was no fluke as the Huskies outgained the Cougars 474 to 194 in that game! While Brigham Young entered this season with a total of just 10 regular season wins the past two seasons combined, Washington entered this season having notched at least 10 regular season wins in each of the past three seasons! Last week the Huskies blasted Hawaii and were at home. In BYU's win last week they beat a USC team that started a back-up quarterback making his first ever road start because of the season-ending injury to JT Daniels. Certainly the Cougars face a much tougher test this week as they now face a Washington offense led by QB Jacob Eason (a transfer from SEC powerhouse Georgia). He is already averaging over 250 passing yards per game with 7 TDs against just 1 INT in the first 3 games. If you take away the OT scoring, BYU is averaging only 18.3 points per game in regulation this season. The Cougars won't be able to keep up with a Huskies team that already "learned their lesson" early this season with a 20-19 loss to Cal as a 2-TD favorite two weeks ago. Having already been tripped up once early this season (but scoring 49.5 points per game in their other two games) we look for a dominating effort from the road team in this one. Lay it with Washington in afternoon action Saturday.
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09-20-19 |
Utah -3.5 v. USC |
|
23-30 |
Loss |
-107 |
29 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305
This one sets up nicely for the Utes who basically had a bye last week (beat Idaho State 31-0) while USC was in BYU losing 30-27 in overtime. Both of these teams played @ BYU and while USC lost in OT, Utah beat the Cougars 30-12. Utah has a balanced offense with a veteran QB, senior Tyler Huntley. He has been through the Pac 12 road wars and knows how to win. The Utes have won 13 of the last 16 games that Huntley has been the starting QB. He’s completing nearly 78% of his passes this year with no turnovers. USC will start true freshman Kedon Slovis again at QB. He takes over for JT Daniels who was injured in the season opener. He played very well in his first start vs Stanford which doesn’t look quite as good as it did at the time as the Cardinal have already turned into a trainwreck getting blow out in their last 2 games. Last week, Slovis came back down to earth throwing 3 interceptions in their loss @ BYU. Now he will face the best defense he’s played thus far and one of the top secondary in the nation. We expect him to turn the ball over again here which will give Utah a nice advantage. USC will struggle to run the ball vs a defense that is allowing just 65 YPG on the ground this year. The Utes finished 5th nationally in rush defense last year so their early season numbers are no fluke. The lack of a running game will put more pressure on the true freshman QB to win the game. We think that’s too much to ask. We also have a nice coaching advantage here with Kyle Whittingham easily over Clay Helton in our opinion. How does USC do vs teams when they are underdogs? Terrible. They are just 2-13 ATS and 1-14 SU their last 15 games as an underdog dating back to Helton’s early days here. That tells us the Helton & USC can beat the teams they are supposed to but when they are asked to step up and pull an upset, they can’t. Take Utah here.
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09-14-19 |
Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
48-14 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191
This is a BIG number posted on this game but UCLA is showing a BIG problem early this season. The Bruins came into this 2nd season under Chip Kelly knowing that their offense was going to have to lead the way. Of course that has long been the story with teams led by Chip Kelly and last season was no exception as the defense ranked 102nd in the nation as they allowed 445 yards per game. The big problem is that the offense was supposed to be much improved in the 2nd year in Chip Kelly's systems but they have looked absolutely awful. The Bruins are getting horrible QB play and their offensive efficiency (3.71 yards per play) ranks them 128th out of 130 teams! While UCLA has 479 yards of offense on the season, the Sooners have nearly a thousand more as they have piled up 1,417 yards of offense. Oklahoma's efficiency on offense is 10.92 yards per play which ranks them #1 in the nation. This is why, even though this is a big number of points to lay on the road, we have no hesitation in laying it with the Sooners here. Oklahoma is going to do what they always do which is score nearly every time their offense takes possession of the ball. The Bruins just don't have the ability to keep up here. The UCLA offense right now can't even get out of its own way, that is how bad it has been. Also, Oklahoma has a bye on deck and this is their first road game of the season. Look for a strong game from the defense as the Sooners D is viewing this as a very important game to come up with a big effort on the road. The reason is because this is their final non-conference game of the season as Big 12 play begins for the Sooners after their upcoming bye week. While the Sooners have a bye on deck, UCLA has their Pac-12 opener up next! Huge edges here for the Sooners! In terms of their production on offense, Oklahoma averaged 48 points per game last season and they put up 49 points in Week 1 this season (and then 70 last week but against South Dakota). UCLA has scored just 14 points in each of their games. Given those stats it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting a victory margin in the 5 TD range (35 points). Lay it with Oklahoma in evening action Saturday.
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09-14-19 |
Air Force +4 v. Colorado |
|
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (+) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET: Game #125
Air Force holds a huge situational edge in this match-up as the Falcons enter this game off a bye week while Colorado is off back to back big wins. The Buffaloes opened up the season with a rivalry win over Colorado State and then followed that up with a huge come from behind OT win (were down 17-0 in 3rd quarter) versus Nebraska last week. The Buffaloes used a lot of energy in storming back for the win over the Cornhuskers Saturday afternoon and, to top it off, Colorado also has their Pac-12 opener on deck at Arizona State. While Air Force entered this season returning 7 starters on both sides of the ball, the Buffaloes returned only 5 starters on defense. This increases the tough task of facing the Falcons option attack. While Air Force has had two weeks to prepare for this game, Colorado is having to try and quickly prepare for a much different offensive attack than what they saw last week with the Huskers. Also, while the Falcons return 4 starters from the offensive line plus their starting tight end from last seasons team, the Buffaloes return only 1 of their 4 starters on the defensive line. This is going to present a problem at the point of attack in this game and we look for a huge game from the Falcons option attack which is not the type of offense the Buffaloes see very often at all. Overall, the Falcons are the much more experienced team and also head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 13th year with Air Force. Conversely, Colorado lost a lot of experience from last season's team and their head coach Mel Tucker is in his first season as a head coach. The Buffaloes did their damage through the air in the comeback versus Nebraska last week but the Falcons do have an experienced secondary including one of the best safety duos in the Mountain West Conference with Garrett Kauppila and Jeremy Fejedelem. Colorado will certainly move the ball some through the air in this game but the Falcons ground-based attack on offense (ranked 3rd in the nation for rushing last season) will be the difference-maker and leads Air Force to the win in this one. We won't hesitate to grab the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the road team Falcons to win this one in an outright upset. Take the points with Air Force in early afternoon action Saturday.
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09-07-19 |
BYU v. Tennessee -3 |
|
29-26 |
Loss |
-120 |
54 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tennessee Volunteers (-) over Brigham Young Cougars, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #358
Both the Cougars and the Volunteers had some turnover issues last week but BYU has some definite concerns with an offense whose only TD came in "garbage time" last week against the Utes. The Cougars had only 240 yards of offense last week and, again, some of that coming late when the game was already decided and Utah had "let up" in defensive intensity. Now certainly BYU faced a tougher defense than the Volunteers did last week but Tennessee did put up over 400 yards of offense and scored 30 points but they were done in by 3 turnovers in the game. The Vols were guilty of overlooking a Georgia State team that was 2-10 last season. This is a Volunteers team that returned 16 starters and now is out to make a statement this week to prove that last week's unacceptable loss was an aberration. The last 7 times Tennessee was off a non-conference SU loss they've gone undefeated (6-0-1) ATS. Look for the Vols to bounce back here. Certainly BYU is looking to bounce back as well but Brigham Young is 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when they are off a big loss (margin of defeat of 17 points or more). Additionally, the Cougars history against SEC teams (0-8 ATS the last 8) certainly doesn't bode well either! The Volunteers are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they have been off an upset loss as a double digit favorite. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Volunteers to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.
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09-07-19 |
Nebraska -4 v. Colorado |
Top |
31-34 |
Loss |
-107 |
51 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331
The Huskers received more off-season hype than any other Big Ten team and we felt they were overvalued entering the season. They showed that last weekend when they struggled at home in a 35-21 win over South Alabama falling well short of their 35 point spread. While that number was much too high, we feel their poor showing last week, along with a deceiving Colorado performance has resulted in a number that is too low here. We have this game power rated to Nebraska -7 so the value, and a full FG, is on the Huskers. They are facing a Colorado team that looks like they destroyed their in-state rival last week. The Buffs beat Colorado State 52-31 however the game was much closer than that. CSU actually outgained Colorado but lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game. The Colorado defense gave up over 500 yards and we expect the Husker offense to have a field day on Saturday. The Nebraska offense was expected to be one of the best in the Big Ten this year. If you throw out their late season game last year vs MSU which was played in snow and very strong winds, this Husker offense averaged 41 PPG over their last 7 games. They topped 400 yards of offense in 8 of their final 9 games with their MSU game being the only outlier. They bring back all-conference caliber QB Martinez and most of his weapons. Last Saturday was a dud offensively. Head coach Scott Frost mentioned after the game it was one of the most anemic offensive efforts he’s ever been a part of. You can bet they’ll play very well on that side of the ball this week coming off that performance and facing a restructured CU defense under new head coach Melvin Tucker. The Nebraska defense had us questioning this team coming into the season however they won the game for the Huskers last week. If they play solid again this Saturday we feel this team will roll as we expect the offense to click. These two met last year and Nebraska had their way with Colorado’s defense rolling up 565 yards. They outgained the Buffs by 170 yards but lost 33-28 when Colorado scored on a 40-yard TD pass with just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Nebraska was the better team last year and they are better this year. We look for Colorado to take a step back this year as they adapt to their new schemes on both sides of the ball. The game is in Boulder we’re hearing that the Nebraska fans will be traveling in droves and it could be close to a 50/50 in the stadium when all is said and done. It all adds up to a convincing Nebraska win on Saturday.
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09-07-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 |
|
24-42 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #314
This is a huge home game for the Boilers who were upset last Saturday @ Nevada. Purdue simply blew that game. They were up 31-14 late in the 3rd quarter and decided to put it on cruise control. They allowed the Wolfpack to score the final 20 points of the game to pull the unlikely win. Purdue had over 500 yards of offense but over the last quarter and half, after taking the 17 point lead, they tallied just 55 yards. PU head coach Jeff Brohm admitted after the game they should have stayed more aggressive on offense. They will not make that mistake on Saturday. If they get ahead, which we anticipate, they won’t take their foot off the gas as they did last week. Even with the terrible last quarter and a half of play, Purdue dominated Nevada. They outgained the Pack by 115 yards and QB Sindelar had 343 yards passing. The problem was they lost the turnover battle 5-0. Normally if the turnover margin in a game is minus 5 it’s a blowout. However, it took a 56 yard FG as time expired for Nevada to win. That tells us how much Purdue dominated the game, sans the turnovers. They come home to face a Vandy team that is off a big home conference opener vs Georgia and they have LSU as their next opponent. The Commodores were toasted 30-6 in a game that could have been much worse as UGA ran for 323 yards on 8.1 YPC. The offense struggled behind a banged up offensive line (2 starters out) as they learn a new system (new offensive coordinator). Grad transfer QB Neal from Ball State threw for just 85 yards and was under constant pressure. It will be very tough for Vandy to rebound on the road as they were beat up physically last Saturday. Purdue played Friday giving them another edge and an extra day off. Vanderbilt has been a poor road team winning just 6 of their last 27 games away from home. This is a really tough spot for them versus a team that really needs this win at home. Lay it with Purdue.
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09-06-19 |
Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State |
|
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Boise State Broncos, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #303
Bryan Harsin is in his 6th season as the head coach at Boise State.. In his first season at the helm in 2014, the Broncos had a solid ATS record at home (similar to some of those dominating campaigns under former head coach Chris Petersen).. However, the past 4 seasons Harsin's teams are 6-17-1 ATS as a home favorite and this particular spot is a very tough one for the Broncos. Boise State is off a huge upset win on the road way down in Florida where they rallied to upset the Seminoles. Not only did that comeback win take a lot out of the Broncos, it also involved a lot of travel (over 4,000 miles round-trip). Look for the Thundering Herd to come in and take advantage as Marshall is excited about this opportunity to take on a ranked team in a weeknight game where they know they certainly have a chance to get noticed if they can pull off the upset with the ESPN cameras rolling. The Herd enter this game off a confidence-building win as they were able to roll up a big margin of victory against VMI in what was the home opener for Marshall. Now the Thundering Herd take to the road where they are 8-2 ATS as a road dog the past 3 seasons. The last 14 times that the Broncos have been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, they have gone 4-10 ATS. Situational value and historical trends and our computer math model all offer strong support for this play. Grab the big points here as we fully expect this one to go down to the wire on Friday.
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09-01-19 |
Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 |
|
31-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Houston Cougars, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #216
There is no questioning the Sooners offensive firepower. Although they have a new QB this season it is the Oklahoma system that is a catalyst for fantastic production on that side of the ball. Additionally, they are loaded (as usual) with talent and firepower at the skill positions and ready to dominate opposing defenses. The Cougars are very poor on the defensive side of the ball plus lost most of their starters from last season's team. Houston truly has little chance of getting stops in this match-up. The key to laying the big number here is that the Sooners, unlike the Cougars, should get quite a few stops. Look for some improvement from the OU defense this season after the addition of Alex Grinch at defensive coordinator. He was previously at Ohio State and though improvement will take time this season, there already is a new attitude and confidence level within the Sooner defense. The Cougars are 3-7 the last 10 times as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points. In the past two seasons Houston was an underdog 4 times and they went 1-3 ATS. The Sooners are 13-5 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 points and this total is set very high for a reason. Oklahoma is known for imposing their will and not taking their foot off of the gas on offense no matter the score. When facing an over-matched foe, the Sooners go for the jugular. This game will be no different and, per our computer math model, this one is decided by at least 4 TDs as that record improves to 14-5 ATS! Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Sooners in this evening match-up Sunday.
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08-31-19 |
Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh |
Top |
30-14 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 31 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203
We think Virginia is a team that will surprise this year. They come into the season a bit underrated in our opinion. The Cavs were 8-5 a year ago including a 28-0 win over South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. Offensively they return one of the top QB’s in the country in Bryce Perkins who threw for 2,700 yards and rushed for almost 1,000 more last season. The only other QB in college football to pass for more than 2,600 and rush for more than 900 last year was Heisman Winner and #1 pick Kyler Murray of Oklahoma. UVA will have a big advantage at QB in this game as Pitt’s Kenny Pickett is inconsistent (58% completion rate) and not nearly the offensive threat that Perkins is. Defensively the Cavs should be one of the best units in the ACC. They return 8 of their top 10 tacklers and they are very good up front on the all-important defensive line where they are very deep. They bring back 6 starters in the front 7 so we expect them to control the trenches vs a very raw Pittsburgh offensive line who has only 37 combined starts (117th nationally). On the other side of the ball the Panthers lost 5 of their 7 players up front including their top returning DE Rashad Weaver who injured his knee in camp a few weeks ago and is out for the season. We think Virginia has a solid edge on both lines of scrimmage which is vitally important. Situationally this is a very solid spot for Virginia. It’s a revenge spot and a fairly significant one. Last season UVA won 6 of their first 8 games and pushed their way into the top 25 for the first time since 2011 heading into week 9 checking in at #23. That week 9 opponent just happened to be the Pitt Panthers. While the Cavs were celebrating their top 25 ranking, Pitt came into Charlottesville as a 7-point dog and walked away with a 23-13 win making the Cavaliers long awaited move into the rankings a one week affair as they dropped out for good. Virginia has had this game in their sights since that embarrassing effort. Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach and he had the Cavs getting better each year. They went from 2-10 to 6-7 to 8-5 in their 3 years under Mendenhall. He now has his best team yet and they’ll take advantage of a rebuilding Pitt squad. We think UVA is better on both sides of the ball here. Virginia is the play. Lay the small points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the road team Cavaliers in this early evening match-up Saturday.
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08-31-19 |
Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 |
|
36-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
67 h 22 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #192
Florida State returns 16 starters from last year's team and that includes 8 on each side of the ball. Also, at QB they have plenty of experience on hand with James Blackman as the starter and Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook (a starter with the Badgers) serving as the back-up. The Broncos situation on offense is certainly unsettled early on as they lost their QB, RB and a pair of top receivers. All those skill position guys for Boise State were top performers and now the Broncos begin the season far away from home and facing a talented Noles defense. FSU returned their entire secondary among the 8 returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. Of course this game being played at TIAA Bank Field, the home of the NFL's Jaguars, in Jacksonville, FL is a big edge for Florida State. This is a tough spot for a team's first game with a new QB but that is the task at hand for the Broncos. Boise State is starting true freshman Hank Bachmeier in this one. The Seminoles rate an edge in terms of experience and have the location edge in this game. FSU is projected to be much improved in their 2nd year under Willie Taggart after last season was deemed a "transition year" for the program. In terms of ATS support here, the Seminoles are perfect 8-0 ATS when they are facing a non-conference foe and are favored by less than a 4 TD margin. Taking a look at Boise State, the last 3 times the Broncos opened the season in a match-up in which they were the underdog they lost all 3 games SU. The 2 most recent occurrences were both ATS losses and saw Boise State get blown out by an average of 27 points per game despite the fact that their average line in those two games was only +7. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Seminoles to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.
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08-30-19 |
Rice v. Army -21.5 |
|
7-14 |
Loss |
-103 |
56 h 11 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Rice Owls, Friday at 6 PM ET: Game #146
Army is 21-5 SU the past two seasons. Rice is 3-22 SU the past two seasons. In fact the Owls have only won 6 games the past 3 seasons combined and the Black Knights had nearly twice as many victories as that just in the last season alone. The point is that there is a huge difference in the current status of each of these two football programs and that was on full display in the most recent meeting between these squads. In that game in 2017, Army rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead and then coasted to the 49-12 victory. That game was at Rice too! Now the Owls are facing the Black Knights at West Point and we expect nothing less than a result very similar to that 2017 meeting. Army has won 5 of its last 6 home openers. The Black Knights last 3 home openers have all been wins and the average victory margin has been 33 points per game. The Owls averaged only 18.9 points per game last season and remain unsettled in terms of their QB situation. Conversely, the Black Knights are very much settled in with their QB situation as senior Kelvin Hopkins returns. Last season he became the first Army QB to both throw and run for over 1,000 yards in the same season. He is a dual threat and the Black Knights ground game is one of the best in the nation as they ranked 2nd last year! Defensively, the Black Knights were in the top ten in the nation for rush defense, yardage allowed, and points allowed last season. Rice has been known for slow starts to the season as they've gone 3-10 ATS in the first half of the season the past two years. Though Army lost a number of starters from their defensive unit of a year ago, they do return plenty of experience as they have many upperclassmen to turn to. In fact, their 2-deep on defense shows a dozen seniors. Once again, the Black Knights system under Jeff Monken appears poised for another double digit win total this season and, in this spot, the downtrodden Owls appear very likely to suffer yet another early season blowout loss. Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Black Knights in this early evening match-up Friday.
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08-24-19 |
Arizona v. Hawaii +11 |
|
38-45 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 23 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Warriors (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #294
Three years ago these teams met in Arizona and the Wildcats got the win but the Warriors got the cover. This time around, with Hawaii as the host in an early season match-up, the likelihood of another underdog cover is even greater! The Warriors have excelled as a home dog against PAC-12 foes as they have covered five in a row! Overall, in their lined home openers, it has been a run of 7 straight covers for Hawaii. The Warriors are strong this season in terms of returning talent as they return 18 starters from last season's team. Offensively, they are strong at QB with McDonald and he pairs with wide receivers Ward and Byrd for a dangerous aerial attack. The Wildcats were weak in terms of pass defense last season and Hawaii will take advantage here. Though the Warriors are not known for their defense they should see improvement on that side of the ball this season as they do return 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last season's squad. Arizona has not fared well in the role of an away favorite. Facing Hawaii - so strong in home openers and known for "stepping up their game" when getting an opportunity against the PAC-12 - this is simply not a good spot for the Wildcats from a situational standpoint. A lot of points expected here as this total is in the mid-seventies as of Friday afternoon and in a game projected to be a shootout, that is likely to spell trouble for Arizona at the betting window. The Wildcats are 5-14 ATS when the total on their game is set at greater than or equal to 70. The Cats are also a poor 5-12 ATS when they are favored on the road by 7 or more points. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games played in the month of August. Look for a strong fight (and cover) from the home dog Warriors in this Saturday night non-conference match-up.
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01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.
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01-01-19 |
LSU -7 v. Central Florida |
|
40-32 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 16 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON LSU (-) over UCF, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - There is a lot of focus on defensive personnel that are out for this game for LSU. So much focus in fact that many are forgetting about the most important injury situation relating to this game. That of course is the fact that UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is out with that devastating knee injury he suffered in November. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule than the Knights have this season. Additionally, the few times when Central Florida has stepped up in level of opposition, they have not been overly impressive. The four toughest match-ups that UCF had were facing Memphis twice, Cincinnati once, and Temple once. Note that the Owls put up 670 yards on the Knights! That is the same Temple team that got smoked in the bowls by Duke. As for the win over the Bearcats, the scoreboard showed a 25 point edge but note that UCF only won the yardage battle by 23 yards! Certainly a bit of a phony final and the two games against Memphis saw the Knights have to rally in BOTH games. UCF rallied to beat the Tigers by 1 point in October. Then, in the AAC Championship game, the final score makes it look like the Knights dominated but Central Florida was down huge at the half and the game was still a 1-point game with under 7 minutes to go in the contest. Keep in mind that was against a Memphis team that, like Temple, also lost their bowl game and the Tigers were out-gained by 151 yards by Wake Forest in that bowl defeat. The point is that LSU is, by far, a tougher opponent than UCF has faced all year and this would be true even if the ENTIRE Tigers defense was made up of their 2nd stringers! LSU comes from the powerful SEC of course and the Tigers only losses came against Florida (blasted Michigan in bowl game), Alabama (blasted Oklahoma in CFB Playoff semi-final), and Texas A & M (an epic game decided in 7 overtimes). In our opinion, the Knights (with a back-up) quarterback will struggle to hang around in this game and by the second half the Tigers will wear them down and eventually win this one by a margin of at least two touchdowns. What is the motivation for LSU? UCF is 12-0 on the season. They won't be undefeated after the Tigers are done with them. LSU is the play.
|
12-31-18 |
Northwestern +7 v. Utah |
|
31-20 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Northwestern (+) over Utah, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Utes are expected to have QB Tyler Huntley (broken collarbone) back for this game but there is certain to be some rust as he has not seen game action since November 3rd. Utah has been held to 147 passing yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games and that is a key concern here because their running game has not been the same since losing running back Zach Moss for the season with an ankle injury. The Utes averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in their last 3 games. Northwestern wrapped up the season with strong running as they totaled over 400 yards in their final two games and averaged 5.9 yards per carry! The Wildcats defense had a poor game versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. However, Northwestern entered that game having allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 prior games! Utah lost 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship and the Utes entered that game having allowed 25 points or more in 4 of their 6 prior games. You can see why we like having the TD underdog here when you see how these teams have performed in the latter half of the season. Speaking of underdog value, if you had played the underdog in all 12 of Northwestern's regular season games (prior to Big Ten Championship) you would not have lost a single bet as the dog was 11-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats dozen regular season games. Northwestern's outright upset wins included defeating Wisconsin and winning at Iowa and at Michigan State this season. We are forecasting another upset here and will gladly grab the points being offered. Northwestern is the play.
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12-31-18 |
Michigan State +2.5 v. Oregon |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 25 m |
Show
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ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Oregon, Monday at 3:00 PM ET - We really like the defensive and coaching advantage in this game. MSU head man Mark Dantonio is a very good coach and with extra time to prepare he has been money. The Spartans are 5-1 both SU & ATS their last 6 bowl games with their only loss & non-cover coming against Alabama. Oregon’s Mario Cristobal is in his 2nd season in Eugene and while he is a very good recruiter, we’re not wild about him as a head coach. He had only 2 winning seasons (8-5 & 7-6) in his 6 seasons as head coach @ Florida International from 2007 to 2012. His two bowl appearances with FIU were not very impressive as the slipped by Toledo 34-32 as a 2-point favorite and the Rockets outgained FIU by 130 yards in that game (FIU had 89 yard kick return for TD by now Indy WR TY Hilton). The following year Cristobal took FIU to another bowl and lost by 10 to Marshall as a 4-point favorite. Last year, his first with Oregon, the Ducks went into their bowl game vs Boise as a 7-point favorite and lost by 10. Cristobal, unlike Dantonio, has not shown the ability to have his team ready for bowl games losing in 2 of his 3 post-season appearances as a favorite. MSU defensively has been great this year. They rank #1 nationally vs the rush allowing just 81 YPG on 2.7 YPC. The Ducks rely very heavily on the run averaging 41 carries per game (35th nationally in rushing attempts per game). Using a successful running game to set up QB Justin Herbert and the passing game probably won’t be an option here for the Ducks. MSU should keep them one dimensional. The Spartan offense definitely had their problems this season. However, injuries had a lot to do with that. QB Brian Lewerke had a shoulder injury down the stretch and was not anywhere near 100% as he split time with Rocky Lombardi. Lewerke has had time to rest his shoulder and it’s much better than it has been as he gets the start here. Starting RB LJ Scott was injured much of the season and he is healthy for this game. Sparty has had a month off to tweak their offense and now with some key contributors back, we expect them to play much better. They are facing an Oregon defense that allowed 31 PPG vs the 6 bowl teams they faced this year. By comparison, the MSU defense allowed 21 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this year. Sparty played the much tougher schedule this year facing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and even a very good Utah State team in the non-conference slate. The Pac 12 was down again this year and they continue to flame out in bowl games. This year the Pac 12 is already 1-2 SU in bowls but 0-3 ATS. The conference is now 2-14 ATS their last 16 bowl appearances. The Pac 12 is just 2-10 SU their last 12 bowl games dating back to last season. We like Michigan State to take this game outright.
|
12-28-18 |
Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 |
Top |
26-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.
|
12-28-18 |
Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 |
|
63-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 20 m |
Show
|
#242 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Purdue (+) over Auburn, Friday at 1:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL - We know Purdue is thrilled to be here. They will be well prepared and very motivated to take on their SEC foe. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who is very well liked by the players, gave this team an extra boost by turning down the Louisville job (Brohm’s alma mater) after the season to stay with the Boilers. Positive energy abounds around this program and we expect them to play very well on Friday. Auburn? Maybe not so much. The Tigers had much higher aspirations this year but struggled to get to a 7-5 record. They were in the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl the last 2 seasons and now they are relegated to the Music City Bowl. Their coach Gus Malzahn is just 1-4 SU in bowl games as this team often underachieves in the post-season. On top of that, Malzahn was on the hot seat for much of the season but will now remain as head coach which we’re not sure is a great thing. His offensive coordinator has already left for the same position under Les Miles at Kansas. Their starting QB Jarrett Stidham will play but has already declared for the draft so we’re not sure he’ll be 100% focused on this one. Since the opening weekend when the Tigers slipped by Washington 21-16, this team has beaten a grand total of ONE team that was bowl eligible. That was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, a game Auburn was outgained by 123 yards AND trailed 24-14 with less than 6:00 remaining in the game. This team was outgained in every SEC game but two this year (outgained Ole Miss by 50 & Tennessee by 37). Purdue has great momentum after starting the season 0-3 and fighting their way back and into a bowl game. Four of their six losses came by 4 points or less and only once this season were they beaten badly and the game was out of reach. Unlike Malzahn, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has been a very good bowl coach with a perfect 3-0 SU record in his time at Western Kentucky & Purdue. They have impressive wins this year over bowlers Ohio State, Iowa, and Boston College. While the Boilers have hung around in the same neighborhood stat’s wise vs other bowl teams getting outgained by just 10 YPG, the Tigers have been dominated by other good teams getting outgained by 123 YPG vs other bowl teams. We’ll take the rising team as a dog over the team that is likely to go through the motions here.
|
12-27-18 |
Duke +3.5 v. Temple |
|
56-27 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
#235 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Duke (+) over Temple, Thursday at 1:30 PM ET – INDEPENDENCE BOWL We feel the coaching mismatch in this game is fairly significant. Duke’s head man David Cutcliffe is a veteran whose been at Duke for 11 years & was the head coach at Ole Miss prior to that. His teams at both schools have performed very well in bowl games with an 9-2 ATS record. He prepares them well with the extra time off and that shows in his 82% ATS bowl mark. His counterpart on Thursday will be interim coach Ed Foley as Temple head coach Geoff Collins has moved on to take the job at Georgia Tech. Foley was the interim coach for Temple in their bowl game 2 years ago and they lost by 8 points to Wake Forest as a 12 point favorite. Temple’s main assistant coaches have remained in place which helps but many will be looking for new jobs (or have been already) as Miami DC Manny Diaz takes over starting on Friday. That has to cause some distraction for this team. We love this situation for the Devils as well. They were absolutely embarrassed in their season finale losing 59-7 to Wake Forest. Not only that, Duke was favored by 9 in that game! It was a bad spot for Duke as they were coming off Clemson a week earlier and took and up and coming Wake team for granted (Wake already beat Memphis in their bowl game). It was Cutcliffe’s worst loss of his career and you can bet his team wants redemption for that terrible and effortless performance. Temple, on the other hand, hasn’t been challenged in a month and a half when they beat Houston on November 11th. They were double digit favorites in their final two games vs USF and UConn and won those games by 10 & 50 points. The Owl defense has impressive numbers, however they did have problems with mobile QB’s allowing Houston to put up 49, Boston College 45, UCF 52, and Buffalo 36 points. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones falls into that category so we expect the Devils to have a solid offensive performance here. The Blue Devils have played the MUCH tougher schedule facing off against 10 teams that made their way into bowl games. They were 5-5 in those games including wins over Army (who blew out Houston in their bowl game), Miami FL, Northwestern (who won the Big Ten West), Georgia Tech, and Baylor. Meanwhile, in the much weaker AAC, Temple faced 6 bowl bound teams and finished with a 3-3 mark with wins over Houston (who was blown out by Army in their bowl game), USF (who was WAY down this season and blown out at home in their bowl game by Marshall), and Cincy in OT. We think Duke has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.
|
12-26-18 |
Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 |
|
34-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Georgia Tech (-) over Minnesota, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET This is the Gophers first bowl appearance since PJ Fleck took over as head coach so they might be in “just happy to be here” mode. They already won their biggest game of the year upsetting Wisconsin (Badgers had 4 turnover to 0 for Minnesota) on the road in the season finale taking home Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 14 yards AND becoming bowl eligible in the process. Going into Wisconsin as a double digit underdog, we’re not sure they even expected to be playing in the post-season. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to get this win. Their long time head coach Paul Johnson has informed his team that he will retire after this one. From what we have been told, Johnson is well liked by his players and they REALLY want to win this game for him. “I’m going to try to have my best game, and we’re going to try to send coach Johnson out the right way, with a win,” linebacker and captain Brant Mitchell said. “I think that’s the mindset of everybody on this team.” The Jackets offensive strength plays right into Minnesota’s defensive weakness. Tech leads the nation in rushing at 335 YPG on 5.7 YPC while Minnesota allows 170 YPG on the ground in 5.2 YPC. They had some solid defensive performances vs the rush against lower tier rushing teams. However, against the top running games in the Big Ten they struggled allowing Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland to all rush for over 300 yards. Against Wisconsin to end the season, Minny jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead due to turnovers and special teams (punt return TD for Gophs) taking the Badgers out of their gameplan. Even with that Wisconsin rushed for 170 yards on 5.5 YPC. The Gophs will also be without their top defensive player and leading tackler LB Blake Cashman along with starting OT Donnell Greene who are both sitting out this game to get ready for the NFL draft. On top of that, head coach PJ Fleck suspended a few other players but he isn’t divulging who they are so we’ll all find out at game time. Either way, not a great sign for Minnesota and their mental readiness for this game. They are also the youngest team in the nation with over 50% of their roster being freshmen so it will be the first bowl game ever for many on this team. Because they were young, the Gophers struggled on the road with their only win coming @ Wisconsin in a game they were actually outgained. Their other games away from home ended in losses by margins of 29, 25, 24, and 16 points. Ga Tech has won 6 of 8 game entering this one but did lose in their season ender to in-state rival Georgia. Johnson has led his team to wins in 3 of their last 4 bowls games and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. We have a feeling the young Minnesota defense gets worn down in this game and Tech pulls away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Georgia Tech is the play.
|
12-22-18 |
Buffalo v. Troy +1 |
Top |
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 51 m |
Show
|
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.
|
12-22-18 |
Houston v. Army -5 |
|
14-70 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 22 m |
Show
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#224 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Army (-) over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – ARMED FORCES BOWL - We’re not so sure what Houston’s mind set will be entering this game. They had higher aspirations coming into the season but are stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl. Their top player, DT Oliver, is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL draft. Their starting QB D’Eriq King, who passed for 3000 yards and 36 TD’s along with nearly 700 yards rushing, hurt his knee in the Cougars 2nd to last game of the season and is out. His back up is a true freshman who was 18 of 43 passing in their season ending blowout loss at the hands of Memphis. They will also be without one of the top offensive playmakers, WR & kick returner Bryson Smith. On top of that, head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator at the end of the season. This team seems to done with this season and looking ahead to next year. We know that isn’t the case with Army. One thing we know about the service academies is they will show up and play hard in their bowl games (16-8 ATS in bowl games since 2003). Army was easily the best of the academies this year with a 10-2 record. Let’s not forget one of the losses was 28-21 @ Oklahoma in overtime and the Cadets outgained the Sooners! It was easily the lowest point total for the Sooners this season (21 in regulation) as they topped 40 in every game but two (37 vs Iowa State was the other). That speaks volumes on how good this Army defense is. They ended the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, AND scoring defense. Houston, on the other hand, struggled to top the run this year allowing just under 200 YPG. And that was WITH All American DT Ed Oliver in the line up and as we stated he is sitting this one out. The Cougs beat Navy this year as the Middies were way down, however they allowed 344 yards rushing in that one. They’ll have big problems again here stopping an Army running attack that ranks #2 nationally averaging 297 YPG. We like Army to win by at least a TD in this one so we’ll lay the points.
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12-21-18 |
Florida International +7 v. Toledo |
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35-32 |
Win
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100 |
18 h 39 m |
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#217 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Florida International (+) over Toledo, Friday at 12:30 PM ET NOTE - FRIDAY AFTERNOON GAME - Windy conditions expected in the Bahamas Bowl and this absolutely will negate some of the impact of Florida International QB James Morgan being downgraded to "out" for this game. They are expecting 25 to 35 MPH winds in Nassau on Friday which has dropped this total from 67 to 56! We’re not on the total but interesting to note the affect the strong winds will have on this game. The running game will now become more important of this game and FIU back up QB Christian Alexander, a junior is actually the much better runner in comparison with Morgan. Alexander hasn't seen a ton of action this season but he did complete 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards plus he ran for 98 yards on 14 carries for an average of 7 yards per carry. Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and his insight into Toledo (both are MAC schools) is also a bonus in this game as he'll pass along plenty in game planning as he helps Alexander with this rare start. Though this will be an unexpected start for Alexander, he did see action in 8 of the Panthers 12 games this season. The Rockets have the more impressive numbers in terms of production on offense but they are also playing with their back up QB Eli Peters who stepped in the final 4 games for injured starter Mitchell Guadagni. Defensively FIU has a solid edge in our opinion. FIU has allowed 386 YPG on the season while Toledo has been rolled for 430 YPG. In road games this season, the Panthers have allowed just 22 points per game. As for Toledo, away from home this season the Rockets have allowed 34.6 points per game! The Rockets allowed only 13 points in their most recent game but that was at home vs Central Michigan who ranks 2nd to last nationally in total offense. Prior to that one, Toledo allowed 31 points or more in 7 of their previous 10 games since the season opener. With FIU's 28-25 loss to Marshall, the Panthers have now allowed 28 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Florida International is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season & 12-4-1 ATS in that role going back a few seasons. FIU’s Butch Davis is a veteran coach and gets the edge over Toledo’s Jason Candle who is in his 2nd year with the Rockets and this is his only head coaching experience. Davis took over a bad FIU program last year and turned them from a 4-8 team into an 8-5 team in one season. This year they sit at 8-4 looking for their first 9 win season ever. The venue also benefits FIU as they are a short hour flight from the Bahamas and definitely used the the warm, humid weather (supposed to be 80 degrees on Friday). The Toledo players may look at this as more of a vacation making the long trip from the cold Ohio weather. Grab the generous points!
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