08-19-19 |
Padres v. Reds -1.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Reds Trevor Bauer is off a tough start but he now makes his 3rd start at Great American Ball Park this season and he has thrived here. One start at this park was as a member of the Indians and the other was his home debut as a member of the Reds. He was phenomenal in both outings as his combined stats show. Bauer allowed 2 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings of work. Now Bauer takes on a Padres team struggling at the plate. While San Diego did manage to win the final two games of their series at Philadelphia they also scored just 3 runs yesterday. The Padres had a .383 slugging percentage last week and that ranks them 13th out of the 15 National League teams. For the sake of comparison, the Reds have a .480 slugging percentage in the month of August. Bauer has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 straight home starts (1 with Reds and 3 with Indians). Pitching as the host has suited him well and he also should get plenty of run support. The Cincinnati lineup gets to take shots at a struggling Eric Lauer in this one. The Padres left-hander is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA in road starts this season! In 6 games (5 starts) since the all star break, Lauer has a 6.56 ERA. Of course the above factors are why the Reds are a sizable money line favorite. That being said, we like the value of the run line here as the Reds are available in the +125 price range when laying 1.5 runs. 49 of the Padres 64 losses (more than 75%) have been by two or more runs. 9 of the Reds last 10 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact those 9 victories came by an average victory margin of 4 runs. Coincidentally, our computer math model is forecasting a win by a 4-run margin for the home team in this one. Lay it! Bet the Reds -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday
|
08-18-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. A's |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Astros are positioned well to avoid a sweep at the hands of a divisional foe that is quickly closing the gap at the top of the AL West. The A's are starting lefty Brian Anderson. That certainly holds some significance here as Houston is 25-8 this season against left-handed starters. The Astros are starting the recently acquired Zack Greinke and he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA this season. Greinke has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his first two starts with Houston. That extends his streak to 5 straight starts with 2 or less earned runs given up. Greinke should enjoy the benefit of plenty of run support in this one as the Astros have a slugging percentage of .517 against southpaws this season. This ranks Houston #2 out of the 30 MLB clubs in that category for this season. The A's Anderson has been better on the road and better in night games this season. That being said, an afternoon home game is not likely to lead to success for the lefty. He has a 4.65 ERA and a .286 BAA in home games this season and a 5.53 ERA and .319 BAA in day games this year. The Astros are in the -175 range on the money line here but a pick range (-110) on the run line. This is where the value is given the above stats as you can see why our computer math model is calling for a road rout here. Greinke and the Astros rate a big edge over Anderson and the A's given all the above factors. Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in late afternoon action Sunday
|
08-18-19 |
Twins v. Rangers OVER 10.5 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
The Rangers are averaging 5.65 runs per game in home games this season. This ranks Texas #3 out of the 30 MLB clubs on the year! The Rangers will take advantage of a struggling Martin Perez in this match-up. The Twins southpaw has not won in any of his 6 starts since the all-star break. In these six outings, opponents are hitting .314 against Perez and he has a 5.45 ERA.. The Rangers start Lance Lynn in this match-up. This season, the veteran right-hander has been hit 60 points higher by left-handed bats compared to right-handed lumber. The same held true last year too when lefty sticks hit .299 against him. Not only are the Twins a very dangerous lineup, they are loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. This is a good match-up for a Minnesota team that is going for the sweep and has scored 29 runs in the first three games of this series! With both teams expected to enjoy plenty of success at the plate, and this o/u (originally set at 11) having been adjusted down to 10.5 runs, this one easily makes it on to today's wagering ticket. Bet the OVER in the Rangers game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
08-17-19 |
Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game between these teams was 6-2 through 3 innings but miraculously did not go over the total of 10.5 as the game ended up a 7-3 Blue Jays win. Look for Saturday's game to feature more scoring throughout the game. The Mariners are going with a bullpen game here as Reggie McClain will be the starter. The concept of "bullpen games" was first, or at least mostly, employed by Tampa Bay. It made sense too because it worked. However, that is because the Rays are known for having a quality bullpen. Again this season the Rays are one of the best bullpens in MLB. As for the Mariners, they are one of the worst pens in the majors. That said, it doesn't work so well for them and this is particularly true when Seattle is up against a red hot offense. The Blue Jays have a .553 slugging percentage this month. That ranks them 3rd in the majors behind only the Yankees and Astros! As you can, Toronto is keeping pretty good company of late. The Mariners lineup has been a little quieter of late but this still a Seattle team whose .455 slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 4th in the AL. The Mariners will take advantage of an inconsistent Trent Thornton. The Toronto right-hander is off a very strong start against the Yankees but he has a knack for following up quality starts with bad ones.. In fact, the last 3 times Thornton was off a start in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, he has been rocked all 3 times allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 3 starts which lasted a combined 8 and 1 / 3 innings.. Given these numbers and this distinct pattern with Thornton as well as the fact that McClain was pitching in the single A level of the minors this season, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a slug-fest at Rogers Centre Saturday afternoon. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in afternoon action Saturday
|
08-16-19 |
Cardinals v. Reds -134 |
|
13-4 |
Loss |
-134 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Cincinnati Reds (-) over St Louis Cardinals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
This line opened up in the -160 range but has fallen to the -135 range and we're jumping on the value being offered with Cincinnati. With the Reds 2-1 win yesterday, they are now 6 games above .500 at home while the Cardinals are 4 games under .500 on the road this season. The home/road dichotomy is a big story line for this one when analyzing the starting pitching match-up. Adam Wainwright is not only 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA in night games this season, the St Louis right-hander is also 2-6 with a 6.96 ERA in road games this season. He is likely to prove to be no match for Cincinnati's Luis Castillo. The Reds ace right-hander is not only 9-1 with a 2.46 ERA in night games this season, he is also 7-3 with a 2.35 ERA in home games. Castillo has held opponents to a .181 batting average at Great American Ball Park. Wainwright is getting hit at a .289 clip in night games and a .298 clip in road games. Cincinnati is 10 games over .500 in night games this season while the Cardinals are playing only .500 ball under the lights this season. Castillo over Wainwright means the home team is well worth the adjusted price being offered on this divisional match-up. Bet Cincinnati on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
08-15-19 |
Cubs v. Phillies +137 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
137 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+) over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Phillies finally made a change that so many in Philadelphia were calling for and it paid immediate dividends. Philly fired their hitting coach and are now using former manager Charlie Manuel (led them to World Series title in 2008) as their interim hitting coach. How did the first game go? It was an 11-1 blowout for the Phillies and this was against Cole Hamels whom is certainly no slouch on the mound. As a result, Thursday's game is offering exceptional line value because many are playing the "won't get swept" game here with the Cubs. Why will they not get swept is our response? The Cubs have been garbage on the road all season and this has been particularly true of late. Last night's loss dropped the Cubs to 23-37 on the road this season. Are things getting better though? Absolutely not! The Cubs are 10-21 their last 31 road games and they've scored just 3 runs so far in this series! Now they face a crafty lefty, Drew Smyly, whom is making his first ever appearance against the Cubs. In other words, there is a lack of familiarity for the Chicago hitters in terms of facing Smyly. In his first 4 starts since coming to the Phillies, Smyly has held opponents to a .224 batting average. The Cubs have Yu Darvish on the mound for this one and he does have strong numbers this season. However, this is the 3rd straight season that he is getting hit at least 60 points higher by left-handed hitters compared to righties. The Phillies active roster has 5 left-handed bats plus 3 switch-hitters among its position players. In theory, all 9 hitters tonight could step in on the left side if Philly wanted to go that route. They won't though because right-handed bats Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura (3 of their best hitters mind you) are likely to be in the lineup tonight. That means between lefties that give Darvish trouble and righties that are ultra-dangerous, the Phillies lineup will be stacked tonight and the switch to Manuel at hitting coach already has given the clubhouse a much more relaxed and positive atmosphere and that can be a key when it comes to hitters' psyche. In their last 16 road games, the Cubs have been held to 4 runs or less 13 times. In those 13 games the Cubs are averaging just TWO runs per game! Look for the Phillies to dominate again at home in this one. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
08-14-19 |
Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
|
9-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON UNDER: Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
Clayton Kershaw is 11-2 with a 2.77 ERA this season. The LA lefty has a 2.41 ERA in his career and is one of the best pitchers in the game. The Marlins have lost 11 of their past 14 games and have been held to 2 or less runs in more than half of those losses. Facing Kershaw certainly won't help the Miami lineup to get back on track. The Dodgers pounded the Marlins to the tune of a 15-1 final last night. However, teams often struggle at the plate in their very next game after unusually massive blowout wins like that. Elieser Hernandez is on the mound for this one and he is a different pitcher when he is at home plus he has revenge here. The most earned runs he allowed in an outing this season was 4 and that happened at Dodger Stadium. This also was the only time this season that he didn't complete at least 1 inning in an outing. Hernandez has a 2.53 ERA in his 4 home starts this season. Also, Hernandez has allowed only 8 hits in 15 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 home starts! Only 2 of the 8 starts Hernandez has made this season have resulted in an over. The Dodgers last two games have gone over the total but 10 of the 12 previous Los Angeles games resulted in an under. Look for that strong under trend to resume here! Bet the UNDER in the Marlins game in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-14-19 |
A's v. Giants OVER 8.5 |
|
9-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Oakland A's at San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET
This total was set at a 9 but has been bet down to an 8.5 which makes sense considering recent results and the fact that Oracle Park is a venue that is known for being friendly to pitchers. However, this is a day game (ball tends to carry better) and this pitching match-up (two struggling starting pitchers) combine to offer great value on the over in this match-up. The A's Homer Bailey has an 8.17 ERA in his first five starts with Oakland after coming over from Kansas City. The Giants Tyler Beede has an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts and also just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings against the Phillies in his most recent start. That is the same Philadelphia team that has been slumping so badly (and hitting so poorly) that they just fired their hitting coach! Given the above it makes sense that the Athletics lineup will pound Beede. At the same time, Bailey is lucky to be 2-2 since coming to Oakland as his ERA speaks for itself. The Giants are likely to get to Bailey early and often in this one. After a low-scoring affair last night, hot hitting will be the story of the day this afternoon at San Francisco. Bet the OVER in the Giants game in late afternoon action Wednesday
|
08-13-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 13 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
NOTE: We are still using this play but the listed pitcher for Colorado is now Jeff Hoffman as a result of Jon Gray being scratched this afternoon due to a minor ankle injury. Hoffman has a 7.91 ERA and a .297 BAA at the AAA level this season. That is against minor league competition. In the majors Hoffman is 7-12 with a 6.03 ERA in his 45 career appearances - 31 of which were starts. The past two seasons with the Rockies have been particularly tough for Hoffman as he has a 7.09 ERA in 2018 and 2019 combined. Behind him is a Rockies bullpen that has struggled at home this season. As a result, we are still recommending this investment. ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET
Yesterday's game got to 14 runs by the top of the 7th and then died after that. That means most everyone who had bet the over (except very early bettors) had to settle for a tough push. Look for tonight's game to make up for that as last night's result certainly was unexpected. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been getting a lot of work recently and the Rockies bullpen ERA at home ranks as the worst in the majors. Coors Field is a tough place to pitch and 24-year old Diamondbacks rookie Zac Gallen will find that out first-hand on Tuesday evening. Most rookies struggle in their first start here and Gallen's result is highly likely to be similar as the Rockies have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game in their last 14 home games against Arizona pitching. The Diamondbacks also should have another huge game at the plate here. Arizona has scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last 8 games at Coors Field. Jon Gray gets the start for the Rockies here and he has allowed 18 earned runs on 31 hits and 10 walks in 26 and 2 / 3 innings over his 5 home starts against the Diamondbacks in his career. Gray has a 6.15 ERA in home outings against Arizona in his career. The over is 5-1-1 in the Rockies last 7 games after last night's push. The Diamondbacks have had only 3 unders in their past 9 games. In their last 8 road games with a total set at 12 runs or more, Arizona has had only 2 unders (25%). As a home favorite (-110 or higher) Colorado is 23-13 to the over this season. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in late evening action Tuesday
|
08-12-19 |
Pirates v. Angels OVER 9.5 |
|
10-2 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
Many pitchers struggle when they make that first adjustment from the AAA level of the minors to pitching in the majors. Certainly this has been the case with Pittsburgh starting pitcher Mitch Keller. The rookie is win-less in his 3 starts at the MLB level and has a .389 BAA and a 10.50 ERA in those three outings. He'll face an Angels lineup enjoying a surge of momentum after back to back wins (and 17 runs scored in the two victories) to wrap up their series at Boston in positive fashion. The win for Los Angeles yesterday remained under the total but the over was 6-3 in the Angels 9 previous games. The LA bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and the Pirates bullpen is even worse with a 4.80 ERA on the season. Considering both pitchers are likely in line for an early exit, we can expect the sub-par bullpens to also play a role in this total going over the number. The Angels start Jose Suarez here and he is win-less with a 7.36 ERA in his 4 night starts this season. Opponents are hitting .325 against Suarez in night games and also .329 against him since the All-Star break. Suarez is win-less in his last 6 starts and has a 7.50 ERA in his 4 starts since the All-Star break. Of his 10 starts on the season only ONE of them has resulted in an under! Of the 3 starts the other rookie (Keller) in this match-up has made, there have been ZERO that resulted in an under. The total was set at a 10 in this one and then has moved down to a 9.5 in early market action. With our computer math model calling for a dozen runs here, this one has plenty of value after the market move. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late night action Monday
|
08-12-19 |
Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
The Nationals Erick Fedde has allowed 17 earned runs on 23 hits and 14 walks in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 4 home starts! He is facing a Reds team that gave him trouble earlier this season (6 hits and 3 walks in just 4 innings). Cincinnati starter Anthony DeSclafani has a solid history against the Nationals. However, DeSclafani has a 6.10 ERA this month plus has allowed 4 homers in 15 innings over his last 3 road starts. Washington is off a 7-4 win yesterday and that was on the road. At home, the Nationals have scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Reds have seen only 1 of their past 8 games result in a game which stayed under the total. Washington's bullpen has a 6.00 ERA on the season which ranks them as the worst pen in the National League. Cincinnati has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in their last dozen road games. The Reds, overall, have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game their past 7 games and have gone 5-2 in the process. Cincinnati is 8-3 to the over this season when they enter a game having won 5 or 6 of their past 7 games. Washington is 7-3 to the over this season in home games in which the total is set at 10 or 10.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Nationals game in early evening action Monday
|
08-11-19 |
Phillies +101 v. Giants |
Top |
6-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
26 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
Entering Saturday's action, the Phillies had won 8 of their last 13 road games. Certainly the Giants have been trending the other direction (the wrong way) ever since the calendar turned the page to August. San Francisco entered Saturday's action having lost 7 of their 9 games thus far this month. Based on the pitching match-up Sunday evening these trends are quite likely to continue. The Giants are starting rookie Conner Menez. The left-hander has a 5.73 ERA in his first two starts at the MLB level. Even though both outings were at home (pitcher-friendly Oracle Park), Menez allowed a pair of homers in each start. The southpaw will have his hands full with a Phillies team that has plenty of pop in its lineup and, that also entered Saturday, having reached double digits in hits in 4 of its last 6 road games. While the Giants start a rookie here, the Phillies will have veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound and he is likely to have extra "fuel in the tank" for this start. Arrieta has been monitored closely as he continues to pitch through a bone spur in his elbow. He has still been giving Philadelphia a solid 4 to 5 innings in his recent starts. Arrieta's most recent outing also involved him being pulled too soon as he was still going strong through 5 innings and should have been allowed to work deeper. This is an encouraging sign for Arrieta and he should fare well against the Giants. He has historically pitched well at this ball park. Overall, in outings against the Giants, Arrieta has a 2.30 ERA in his 43 innings against San Francisco since the start of the 2015 season. The Phillies lost Arrieta's most recent start (though not his fault) and they had previously won 9 of his 13 prior outings. Philadelphia has not 2 consecutive Arrieta starts in 3 months - dating all the way back to the first half of May! The Phillies, entering Saturday, are 16-7 on the road in a money line range of -100 to -150. The Giants entered Saturday's action 9-16 (36%) this season against NL East opponents. The veteran outduels the rookie in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Sunday
|
08-10-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET
Last night tempers erupted in this divisional match-up and the dugouts emptied onto the field right at the conclusion of the game. As a direct result, expect the hitters from both lineups to be "locked in" to the offerings of the pitchers in tonight's match-up. Without a doubt intensity is sky high and this is a pressure packed situation for two starting pitchers whom are unlikely to handle it well. The reason for that is that Alex Young is a rookie and this will be the first time a team is seeing him for a 2nd game. He came out of the bullpen for 2 and 1 / 3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. In his most recent road start Young faced a bad Marlins team and yet he gave up 8 hits in 6 innings while striking out only 2 batters. The Arizona southpaw faces a much tougher test here. The only team in the National League producing more runs in home games than the Dodgers is the Rockies. That said, consider the home venue that Colorado plays in compared to the one that LA calls home. The fact is that the Dodgers are arguably the best hitting team in the National League as imagine what their lineup would do if Coors Field was their home! As for the Diamondbacks, their .470 slugging percentage in road games this season does rank them #1 in the National League. They are facing Kenta Maeda and he is feeling the pressure as he knows his rotation spot could be surrendered to another hurler very soon. Part of the reason for this is that Maeda hasn't earned a win in any of his starts since mid-May! Maeda may not handle the intensity well in tonight's game and, in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings, Maeda has allowed 8 runs (5 earned) in his last two home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Arizona has pounded 3 homers in those 9 and 1 / 3 innings at Dodger Stadium. The over is 9-3-1 in Maeda's last 13 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Prior to last night's under, the over was 5-1 in Arizona's last 5 games and the Diamondbacks averaged 8.4 runs per game in those 5 games. The Dodgers, prior to last night's loss, were 8-1 in their last 9 games and had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 8 victories. Considering all of the above, take advantage of the low total being offered in this one and expect a very entertaining game tonight as intensities are on the rise in this divisional rivalry. Bet the OVER in the Dodgers game in late evening action Saturday
|
08-09-19 |
Astros v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Astros have won 6 straight games and their potent lineup has averaged 9 runs per game during this hot streak. Houston has a slugging percentage of .526 since the All Star break. Only the Yankees slugging percentage is higher than that so the Astros lineup is certainly keeping good company over the past month! Houston is highly likely to remain red hot at the plate Friday as they face Dylan Bundy. The Orioles right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Bundy at Oriole Park at Camden Yards! The Astros start Wade Miley here. Though the southpaw has been pitching very well and has been consistent this season, Baltimore has been playing better ball at home for multiple weeks. Prior to a 14-2 loss to the Yankees Wednesday, the Orioles had split their previous 10 home games and averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game in those contests! In fact, in the Orioles dozen games prior to the ugly loss to the Yankees, they had averaged 5.5 runs per game whether home or away! As a home dog of +125 or more this season, Baltimore is 27-12 to the over! The Astros have scored 9 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games and this is a Houston team that is 4-0 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored a dozen or more runs. After beating the Rockies 14-3 Wednesday, the computer math model is forecasting that the Astros again enjoy a huge night at the plate on Friday. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Friday
|
08-08-19 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 |
|
12-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees Domingo German is a rock solid 14-2 on the season and is 7-1 both at home and on the road. He must be equally consistent whether pitching in the Bronx or on the road, right? Wrong! German has a stellar 2.19 ERA at home but an awful 5.60 ERA on the road and we look for him to get roughed up at Toronto in this one. German has allowed 4 homers in 16 career innings in games played on turf. He'll be facing a Blue Jays team that has won 8 of its last 12 games! Toronto has been swinging the bats well as they have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last dozen games. The Yankees bats also have been red hot as they enter this game having won 8 straight games. New York has scored an average of 8.1 runs per game during their current 8-game winning streak. That means Blue Jays starter Thomas Pannone is likely in trouble here. The Toronto left-hander has been decent out of the bullpen this season but has struggled as a starter. Pannone is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in his five starts this season for the Jays. Per our computer math model here, the expectation is a dozen or more runs considering all of the above factors. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Thursday
|
08-07-19 |
Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox,Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Royals scored 5 runs in Monday's loss at Fenway Park and that 7-5 defeat brought the over to 8-2 in Kansas City's last 10 games. Yesterday KC brought the lumber to the ballpark again and put 6 on the board as 3 homers helped lead the way. However, the game stayed under the total because, in part, the Red Sox went 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position. The Wednesday total was set at an 11 by odds makers again, just like Tuesday, but has fallen to a 10.5 in early trading action. We like the extra value here with the over as all signs are pointing to a breakout game for the Boston lineup in this one. Glenn Sparkman gets the start for the Royals Wednesday and he is 0-4 with a 9.08 ERA on the road this season. Away from home, Sparkman's offerings are being pounded as opponents have compiled a .344 batting average against him. He went 1-4 with a 7.53 ERA in July and his August began with 6 earned runs allowed in under 5 frames on the mound. Behind Sparkman is a Royals bullpen which has compiled a 4.79 ERA on the season to rank among the worst in the majors. The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez Wednesday. The Boston left-hander has some solid numbers on the season but has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 home starts. The Royals are averaging 2 homers per game this month and the hitting conditions will be very favorable at Fenway Park tonight. Mild temperatures and solid south winds should lead to plenty of big hits in Boston tonight. Also, Rodriguez has a 7.58 ERA in his last 4 starts versus the Royals. Our computer math model is forecasting this game gets to a dozen or more in totals runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-06-19 |
A's v. Cubs -135 |
|
11-4 |
Loss |
-135 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Chicago Cubs over Oakland A's, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The A's have a slightly better overall record than the Cubs this season but note the home/road variance here. Oakland is certainly a respectable road team with a .500 record away from home on the season. However, Chicago is one of the best home teams in the majors as they are a superb 40-18 on the season at Wrigley Field. That said, we feel not nearly enough respect is being given to the Cubs at home in this one and that is particularly true when you consider the pitching match-up. Jon Lester is 30-11 at Wrigley Field from 2016 through this season. He has been very tough at home this season with a 2.95 ERA in his 11 starts. Also, from 2016 through this season the A's have only seen Lester once and he held them to 2 earned runs in 7 innings while earning the victory. While Lester is capable of piling up the strikeouts the same can not be said for the A's Brett Anderson. Also, a regression to the mean is underway for Anderson. He has had a decent season thus far but Anderson entered this season with a 5.76 ERA the past 3 seasons combined while getting hit at a .314 clip in these 3 years combined. Anderson has a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts and this is a sign of things to come. Last season he had a 6.06 ERA in his dozen road starts and Wrigley Field is not an easy park for opposing hurlers. This is especially true of those who pitch to a lot of contact and that is certainly the case with Anderson. The Cubs Lester is off a bad start at St Louis but he entered that outing having allowed 3 or less earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. The home team is 16-6 in Oakland's last 22 games. The home team is 8-2 in the Cubs last 10 games. Per our computer math model, all the "home-heavy" trends continue in this one. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the money line in evening action Tuesday
|
08-05-19 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
|
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees Masahiro Tanaka has been great at home this season but is 1-4 with a 7.40 ERA in his 9 road starts this season. The Orioles Gabriel Ynoa has been working out of the bullpen and has been pitching well in that role. However, as a starter he has struggled this season. His last starts were in June. Ynoa made 6 starts in the month of June and went 0-5 with a 6.83 ERA in those starts. Tanaka did pitch well in one start at Camden Yards this season but he entered this season having compiled a 5.40 ERA while being hit at a .293 clip in 5 starts at Camden Yards over the past 3 seasons. Given his road struggles this season and that history in Baltimore, more struggles are likely tonight for Tanaka. He'll be facing an Orioles team that has won 10 of its last 17 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this 3-week stretch! The Yankees have won 5 straight games and 13 of their last 19 and averaged scoring just under 7 runs per game during this hot 3-week stretch. The over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these teams and, per our computer math model, this one should see at least a dozen runs cross the plate. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Monday
|
08-04-19 |
Cardinals +127 v. A's |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
After getting drilled 8-3 last night, the Cardinals take advantage of a big starting pitching edge to get back on track Sunday. Adam Wainwright gets the start for St Louis. In his 5 day game starts this season he is 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and he has held opponents to a .186 batting average in those outings. The A's are starting Tanner Roark whom just came over from Cincinnati. The way things were going for him with the Reds it is certainly difficult to expect much from Roark here. The right-hander compiled a 7.30 ERA in his 5 July starts and it was no fluke either as opponents hit a ridiculous .346 against him! Prior to yesterday's loss, the Cardinals were on a 14-5 run in their 19 prior games and the Cards have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in those 14 victories. The A's, prior to yesterday's win, had scored an average of only 3.3 runs in the 10-game stretch leading into Saturday. Look for these scoring trends to resume and Roark's struggles to continue and the Cardinals win a road rout. Bet St Louis on the money line in late afternoon action Sunday
|
08-04-19 |
Tigers v. Rangers OVER 11 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
Pedro Payano makes just his 2nd career start. In his first one he allowed 6 hits and walked 4 in only 5 and 1 / 3 innings. Payano was fortunate the start was at pitcher-friendly Oakland and he allowed only 2 earned runs. However, now he makes his first ever appearance in hitter-friendly Arlington on a warm summer afternoon. The ball carries very well in these conditions and the rookie Payano will be exposed in this start. The Tigers are starting Jordan Zimmerman. The Detroit right-hander is off a win but that was his first in 14 starts this season. On the year Zimmerman is 0-4 with a 7.88 ERA in his 7 day game starts with opponents hitting .336 against him in those outings! He allowed 9 hits in 5 innings when he faced the Rangers this season and Zimmerman will be facing a Texas team that has averaged 6 runs per game so far on this homestand. The over is 12-6 in Sunday games for Texas this season. Bet the OVER in the Rangers game in afternoon action Sunday
|
08-03-19 |
Mariners v. Astros OVER 10 |
|
0-9 |
Loss |
-120 |
23 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The Mariners are starting Marco Gonzales in this one. The Seattle lefty had a strong start to the season but has a 4.92 ERA from May onward. Gonzales has a 7.58 ERA in his career outings against Houston. The Astros already have seen him twice this season and that is an edge for their lineup as well. Houston is starting recently acquired Aaron Sanchez in this start. Maybe the change of scenery (coming from Toronto) will do Sanchez some good but have our doubts! Sanchez is simply having a nightmare season. He is 0-13 the past three months. Sanchez has an 8.72 ERA the past two months. He'll be facing a hot Seattle team. The Mariners entered this series having won 6 of their past 7 games and scoring an average of 6.3 runs per game as their offense has led the way to their recent success. The Astros also have been hot at the plate. Houston entered this series having won 13 of 18 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game during this hot stretch. Entering Friday, the Mariners were 12-3 to the over this season in road games with a total set at 10 or 10.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Astros game in evening action Saturday
|
08-03-19 |
White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-128 |
24 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET
The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday
|
08-02-19 |
Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Texas Rangers (-1.5 runs) over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
Detroit and Texas each were off yesterday. The Tigers are an incredibly bad 22-64 (including 3-16 this season) against AL West opponents. Detroit also is a horrible 13-43 in night games this season. Of course this is a big part of the reason that the Rangers are such a huge favorite on the money line in this game. While we would never lay those types of prices (-250) on a game, we're happy to grab the run line here as the Rangers are available in the -140 range at -1.5 runs. Will the Tigers lose by 2 or more runs? Note that 59 of Detroit's 72 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Texas has Lance Lynn on the mound for this one and he is 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 17 starts. He completed at least 6 innings in all 17 of those outings! The Tigers start rookie southpaw Tyler Alexander here. His first two starts went well but then he faced a tough lineup in his 3rd MLB start and got crushed by the Mariners. Alexander faces another tough match-up here as the Rangers are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. As for the Tigers, they are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors this season. 39 of the Rangers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs and we like the odds here as they are favoring a huge home win. 17 of the Rangers last 21 wins have come by 2+ runs. Texas is also 4-0 in their last 4 games against Detroit (those were on the road) and also 5-1 the last 6 times they have hosted the Tigers. Bet the Rangers -1.5 runs in evening action Friday
|
08-01-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. Indians |
|
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
After getting blasted 10-4 in yesterday's game the Astros are in full-on bounce back mode on Thursday. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and opposed by a pitcher on a strict pitch count and making his first MLB start since 2017, this one is likely to turn into a road rout. Of course the likelihood of a Houston win here is why they are a big favorite on the money line. With that being said, where we get the value here is on the run line as the Astros are available in the -120 price range by laying the 1.5 runs. Cole is in phenomenal current form and also has revenge here against the Indians after a tough hard-luck loss suffered at the hands of Cleveland earlier this season. Cole enters this outing having allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. Also, he has gone at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Cleveland's Danny Salazar is returning from major injury issues. He will be limited to, very likely, 70 pitches at most in this one. Though he has pitched well in the minors during his rehab and also piled up the strikeouts there, Salazar is facing a tough lineup in this match-up. Of course major league hitters are much better at making contact with the "swing and miss" stuff that Salazar displayed at the minor league level. The Astros slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 3rd in the majors! The Indians batting average at home ranks them a poor 13th out the 15 American League teams. Both teams have strong bullpens but the Cleveland pen will be asked to do too much here with Salazar's early exit expected. Cole dominates again and Houston rolls to a win by a multiple-run margin. The Astros, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are a long-term 37-14. That is worthy of note here because 35 of the Indians 44 losses this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs. Also, 51 of Houston's 69 wins this season have been by a margin of at least two runs! Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday
|
07-31-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals +103 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
With yesterday's loss, the slumping Cubs have now lost 6 of 8. In those 6 defeats Chicago has scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game! On the other hand, the Cardinals have been red hot as they have won 13 of 17 games! St Louis has scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in their 10 most recent victories. They opened up as a -120 favorite here but the markets swung it the other way and the Cubs ended up as high as a -120 favorite in early trading action. This is likely due to Kyle Hendricks success against the Cardinals but both of his outings versus St Louis this season were at Wrigley Field. That is significant because Hendricks has been fantastic at home this season but he has been a different pitcher on the road. Hendricks is 3-6 with a 4.91 ERA away from home this season. The Cards Miles Mikolas struggled in his most recent start against the Cubs but that was at Chicago. Entering that start, St Louis was 4-1 in Mikolas 5 career starts against the Cubs. He is highly likely to bounce back here at home where he has a sizzling 2.15 ERA in 10 starts this season! The home/road dichotomy here is a huge factor in the pitching match-up of Mikolas versus Hendricks. Additionally, the Cardinals are the hotter team and more relaxed at the plate right now. Being at home helps in that regard too. As for the Cubs, they are slumping and are starting to squeeze the sticks a little too tight as a result. In other words, Chicago's hitters are pressing at the plate and their recent results are a direct reflection of this. Bet St Louis on the money line in evening action Wednesday
|
07-31-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET
Revenge game for the Yankees. Not only have the Diamondbacks held the upper hand in their match-ups this season, Arizona's Zack Greinke beat New York when he faced them in New York earlier this season. Many experts believe that, just like the Dodgers are the best team in the NL, the Yankees are the best team in the AL. The reason that holds some significance here is that Greinke is 0-1 with a no decision and a 10.24 ERA in his two starts against Los Angeles this season. Now he faces one of the best teams in baseball and the Yankees off a 4-2 home loss to Arizona yesterday. This is a bounce back spot for the Yankees and they should get to Greinke early and often. The issue for the Yankees today is that Masahiro Tanaka is also likely to give up plenty of runs. The Yankees right-hander has an 11.69 ERA in his last 5 starts! Tanaka faced the Diamondbacks earlier this season and struggled and only lasted 4 innings. The way Tanaka is currently struggling means a repeat of those struggles is quite likely here. The over is 7-3 in Yankees home games with a total set at 10 or 10.5 runs and the over is 5-1 this season in Arizona's road games with a total set at 10 or 10.5 runs. Now this total has dropped to a 9.5 in most spots and, per our computer math model, that makes this one a must play for our Wednesday card. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early afternoon action Wednesday
|
07-30-19 |
Twins v. Marlins OVER 8 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been brilliant in day games this season with a 5-0 mark and a 1.30 ERA in his 6 afternoon starts. However, this is an evening game in Miami and Odorizzi has a 5.14 ERA in his 14 night game starts this season! Also, Odorizzi has just one win in his four July starts as he has a 9.35 ERA this month and opponents have hit .319 against him. Now certainly Miami is not known for being a powerhouse lineup and we won't deny that fact. However, no one can deny the fact that the Marlins have been swinging the bats better than usual of late. After last night's 11-6 win versus Arizona, Miami has won 5 of its last 6 games and has averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in those five victories. With Odorizzi struggling and on the road, the Marlins confidence (on a 5-1 run) leads to another strong night at the plate for Miami. The Twins also should enjoy success at the dish in this one. . Minnesota enters this series having won 5 of its last 8 games and scoring an average of 7.8 runs per game during this strong stretch. The Twins tough lineup is expected to do some damage Tuesday facing Zac Gallen in this one. The Marlins young right-hander is off a fantastic start but he walked 9 batters in 10 and 1 / 3 innings in his two prior starts. Also, Gallen has a 4.50 ERA in his home outings this season. On the year, Gallen has averaged only 5 innings per start so if he hits his average here that means we are guaranteed of getting 4 innings of Marlins bullpen in this one. The Miami bullpen has a 4.78 ERA which ranks them among the worst in the majors. With a low total of 8 on this one and our computer math model calling for double digits in runs, this one easily makes it as a strong play for our lone bet on Tuesday's card. Bet the OVER in the Marlins game in early evening action Tuesday
|
07-28-19 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox |
|
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees have gotten crushed so far in this series so everyone is pounding the Red Sox in this Sunday night match-up because of that factor as well as the fact that Chris Sale is on the mound. This has led to exceptional line value with the Yankees on the run line at +1.5 runs. There are very few times you will ever see a strong team with a strong pitcher on the mound getting +1.5 runs at a pick price (-110) but that is the case here. The fact that the Yankees Domingo German is off a season-worst start actually makes this play on the road dog even stronger. Prior to that rough outing German had gone 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA since coming off the injured list early in July. The fact is German is 12-2 this season and opponents are hitting just .227 against him. As for Boston's Chris Sale, many felt he should have come out of his last start prior to the 6th inning but manager Alex Cora sent him back out there and he threw 116 pitches in that game. Granted it was a strong start for the Red Sox southpaw but that was a season high for him in pitches thrown. Now Sale faces a Yankees team that hasn't been kind to him this season. Sale is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers this year. Sale's most recent road start and most recent home start were each successful. However, prior to that Sale allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings! Plain and simple, Sale and the Red Sox are overpriced here and our computer math model has the majority of simulations on the outcome of this game reflecting either an outright upset or a one-run loss for New York. That means strong odds with grabbing the 1.5 runs on the road dog here! Bet the Yankees +1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday
|
07-28-19 |
Rangers v. A's OVER 9.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET
Pedro Payano is a 24-year old Rangers rookie making his first ever MLB start. Last season in AA ball he went 5-10 with a 5.54 ERA. This season, splitting time between AA ball and AAA ball, Payano compiled a 4.40 ERA. In other words, he is not dominating by any stretch of the imagination and now his first ever MLB start is on the road. Look for the A's to get to him early and often. Oakland starts Mike Fiers in this one. The Athletics right-hander has struggled in afternoon action this season. Fiers has compiled a 6.11 ERA in his 6 day game starts on the year. He also got rocked for 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone start versus Texas this season. The over is 11-6 in Rangers Sunday games this season. The over is 17-9 this season in Oakland's games as a favorite of -150 or more. Bet the OVER in the A's game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-27-19 |
Indians -1.5 v. Royals |
|
9-1 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Indians Mike Clevinger has been dominating while the Royals Glenn Sparkman continues to struggle! With yesterday's dominating win Cleveland is 19 games over .500 this season while Kansas City is 27 games under .500 on the season. In terms of bullpens, the Indians 3.27 ERA ranks #1 in the majors while the Royals bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the majors for ERA and very near rock bottom for batting average allowed. As for the starting pitchers here, Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his 4 July starts. Also, Clevinger has allowed a TOTAL of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts against the Royals and he did go at least 6 innings in all 7 of those outings. He has dominated KC to say the least! As for Royals starter Sparkman, he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last two starts against the Indians and did not finish the 6th inning in either outing. Overall, Sparkman has had but one good start in his last 5 outings! In the other 4 starts the Royals right-hander has allowed 21 earned runs in 20 and 1 / 3 innings. Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that the forecast here, per our computer math model, is an absolute road rout! Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday
|
07-27-19 |
Diamondbacks -123 v. Marlins |
|
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
NOTE: Request ACTION when betting this money line play. Regardless of the starting pitching match-up this is a 9* PLAY on Arizona. ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
The Marlins Jordan Yamamoto and the Diamondbacks Alex Young are both strong rookie pitchers whom are coming off a rare sub-par start. However, that is where the similarities in this match-up end! Arizona has actually been better on the road (3 games over .500) than at home (3 games under .500) this season. Miami, even including yesterday's win, is 19-32 in home games this season! Also, Diamondbacks starter Young is a lefty and the Marlins have a .366 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. That ranks them 29th out of the 30 teams! The Diamondbacks have a .478 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks them #1 in the National League! The Marlins are 1-4 this season after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games. Miami is 11-22 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Diamondbacks are 9-3 this season on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs. Bet Arizona on the money line in early evening action Saturday
|
07-26-19 |
Astros -104 v. Cardinals |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Houston Astros over St Louis Cardinals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET
This is a fantastic opportunity to have one of the best teams in baseball at a pick'em price. While it is certainly true that the Cardinals are a quality team, it is it the Astros that are one of the top teams in baseball again this season. St Louis has won 5 straight games but they faced the slumping Pirates and Reds. Also, the Cardinals have NEVER won 6 straight games this season. They are 0-3 this year when they enter a game on a 5-game winning streak. Jack Flaherty has had some strong recent starts for St Louis but this will be the toughest lineup he has faced in a long time. Astros starter Jose Urquidy is off a fantastic start versus the Rangers as the time off between starts served him well. He has a 2.53 ERA and has held the opposition to a .205 batting average in his night starts this season. In the minors this season he held opponents to a .217 batting average and he appears to be settling in at the MLB level as well. The Cardinals are 22-25 this season against teams with a winning record while Houston is 36-22 this season against teams with a winning record including win 12 of its last 17. Also, when the Astros enter a match-up after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals they are 23-5 including 7-1 this season. Look for the road team to make the most of this inter-league match-up! Bet Houston on the money line
|
07-26-19 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Nationals |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers here. Los Angeles is off back to back losses which is rare. Look for this road trip to get the Dodgers re-focused and rolling again. LA is a fantastic 18-4 this season when they enter a match-up after 5 or more consecutive home games. Not only that, their record when Ryu is pitching is phenomenal! The Dodgers are 11-2 in the last 13 starts he has made. On the season Ryu is 11-2 and he has been amazingly consistent. Ryu has allowed just ONE earned run or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The Los Angeles left-hander has been superb in his 4 career starts against Washington as he has a 1.35 ERA over 26 and 2 / 3 innings! Ryu will be opposed by the Nationals Anibal Sanchez. The Washington right-hander has pitched a little better of late but he has still been far from overpowering! In July his strikeouts are down and he has a 4.91 ERA in his two starts since the all star break. Also, Sanchez is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers and that includes getting rocked by the Dodgers. That is the expectation here and that is why this play is on the run line. We avoid laying the big money line price and instead get nearly an even money price on LA by making use of the run line (-1.5 runs) in this one. Bet LA Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday
|
07-25-19 |
Indians v. Royals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and that is a big edge as they see these starting pitchers again in their very next starts. Although Adam Plutko has enjoyed success against the Royals this season, both starts were at home. In fact, Plutko has had a very home-heavy schedule since he joined the rotation and that has certainly helped his results. Plutko entered this season with a 6.83 ERA on the road in his 8 appearances (5 starts) in his young career. In 2019, Plutko has logged 70% of his innings at home which has helped his overall success. On the road this season, just as in the past, the Indians right-hander has struggled. Opponents are hitting .323 against Plutko when he is away from home this year. He'll be facing a Royals team that has momentum on its side after a 2-0 series sweep over the Braves. Though Kansas City didn't hit well in the short series, they now return home where they went 6-1 in their most recent home-stand. The Royals scored an average of 7 runs per game on that home-stand. The Indians are also likely to score well tonight. Cleveland enters this series 15-4 after their 4-0 shutout win last night at Toronto. Their sticks have been hot during this stretch and that includes averaging 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 games against left-handed starters. Thursday the Indians face struggling lefty Mike Montgomery whom they just enjoyed great success against last week. Montgomery has a 6.83 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .347 against him this season. In 6 games (1 start) against the Indians in his career, the Royals southpaw has a 9.53 ERA. Behind Montgomery is a KC bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors. The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games against a left-handed starter. The over is 5-1 in Kansas City's last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Combining all the above factors with a drop on this total from 10.5 to a 10 and we see huge value with the over at Kauffman Stadium and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left field. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Thursday
|
07-24-19 |
Royals v. Braves -1.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET
The Braves are off a tight 1-run home loss to the Royals yesterday. That sets this one up well for a bounce back spot as Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they were off a home loss. Also, the Braves have a huge pitching edge here. Kansas City's Brad Keller has a low ERA in his July starts but he has been hit hard in both road outings. The point is that Keller has been playing with fire and he has been lucky that he has escaped jams and hasn't been burned. In road outings, Keller has been in consistent trouble in 6 of the last 7. Taking away the lone good outing, the other 6 away from home for Keller have seen him allow 45 hits in 30 and 2 / 3 innings. Keller's most recent start was at home and he allowed only 2 earned runs but he gave up 9 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. In his most recent road start Keller walked 5 in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Again, the theme with Keller is constantly pitching himself into jams and the Braves have the potent lineup to make him pay. In fact, Atlanta has scored more runs at home than any other team in the National League. As for Kansas City, their road offense has them mired at the bottom of the AL rankings with other bad teams like the White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles. The Braves also have a big bullpen edge as they rank in the top 8 teams in the majors for bullpen ERA while the Royals relief pitching has been hit at a .273 clip this season which ranks them dead last (#30) out of all teams in the majors. KC was outhit 11-5 yesterday and yet still won the game 5-4. We don't see them being so lucky today. The Braves Julio Teheran is back in top form as he has a 1.53 ERA in the month of July and opponents are hitting only .190 against him this month. The Royals were 15-35 this season on the road before eking out yesterday's win. Lightning won't strike twice! Kansas City's losing ways resume tonight and note that 47 of KC's 64 losses this season have been defeats by a multiple run margin. Per our computer math model, the Braves roll at home in this one! Bet Atlanta -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday
|
07-23-19 |
Phillies -137 v. Tigers |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 8* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Philles over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
Detroit is at home here but the Tigers are 13-34 in home games this season! The odds makers, of course, have to factor in a home field edge with the way they price games but you can see from the record that the Tigers burn money at home too! That said, the Phillies opened up in the -140 price range here and that makes them well worth a play with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Philadelphia has won 11 of the last 15 starts made by Nola. The Phillies right-hander allowed 4 earned runs to the Dodgers in his most recent start but didn't pitch as poorly as that would indicate. Also, Tuesday's game is against Detroit not LA. Prior to that start, Philadelphia's Nola allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in 35 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his 5 prior starts! Nola has been hot, to say the least, and bounces back against the Tigers. Philadelphia is 8-3 when playing after a day off this season. Detroit, when a home dog in a range of +125 to +175, is 1-14 this season. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Tuesday
|
07-23-19 |
Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
22 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Both teams swung the bats well early in last night's game to get to the starting pitchers and more of the same is expected Tuesday. Though the Indians Trevor Bauer is a quality starter his 2019 certainly has paled in comparison to his 2018 performance. Additionally, Bauer is having trouble with the long ball of late. Not only are homers piling up for Bauer of late, he has struggled overall in games under the lights this season. Though he has been superb in day games, Bauer has a 4.67 ERA in night games. As for the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez, time of day and the venue he pitches in have not mattered one iota. The fact is that Toronto's Sanchez is having a nightmare season. He is 3-14 with a 6.26 ERA on the season. Sanchez has been particularly bad the past two months. Since June 1st he is 0-9 in his 9 starts and Sanchez has been charged with 46 earned runs in 42 innings - truly incredible futility on the mound. 3 of Bauer's last 4 starts have resulted in an over and that includes each of his last two road outings. Toronto is 9-1 to the over this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Tuesday
|
07-22-19 |
Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET
With another win yesterday Cleveland has now won 13 of 16 games. Of course that is a big part of the reason they are sizable money line favorites on the road at Toronto in this series opener Monday. . Where the value lies with this one is the run line as we can reduce the lay amount to right around a "pick" price by laying the 1.5 runs with Cleveland. The Indians hold big edges here as, even though this game is at Toronto, the Blue Jays are 18-30 at home this season. Out of all 30 MLB teams there are only 2 (Detroit and Baltimore) that have fewer home wins than Toronto. The Indians enter this series having won 11 of their last 15 road games. The Jays are starting Ryan Borucki. The lefty is making his first start of the season after being sidelined with an injury during spring training. In his most recent rehab starts in the minors (at the AAA level) he was hit quite hard (including the long ball 3 times in 2 starts) and now Borucki faces an Indians lineup that has been surging (6 runs scored per game) during their 13-3 run. Unlike the red hot Indians, the Blue Jays have lost 9 of their last 14 games. Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he should keep Toronto cold as he has dominated of late. Clevinger has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in 17 innings in his last 3 starts. The Indians also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as their 3.26 ERA ranks #1 out of all 30 teams. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday
|
07-21-19 |
White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET
This total was already a short number when it opened up at an 8.5 and it has since dropped to a 7.5 which is offering phenomenal value with the over. Blake Snell gets the start for the Rays and he has great career numbers against the White Sox. However, especially in today's MLB, players change teams with such frequency that it is important to look at hitter on pitcher cumulative stats rather than just team stats. In this case, the White Sox have 6 players (whom all were starters in yesterday's game) that are a combined 13 for 30 (.433 batting average) with 3 homers against Snell. Those 6 players are Abreu, Garcia, Jay, McCann, Rondon, Sanchez. We look for Chicago to enjoy some success here at the plate against Snell. The Tampa Bay lefty will be opposed by rookie Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Cease, per scouts, has been said to have pitched better than his stats would indicate in his first two starts at the MLB level. However, it should also be noted that he faced two of the worst teams (Royals and Tigers) in the American League. Now Cease faces one of the top teams in the AL and, since the All-Star Break, the Rays are tied with the Astros for the most homers (19) in the American League. Cease does come in as a highly touted prospect but this was his first season above the AA level of the minors and, at AAA Charlotte he had a 4.48 ERA and opponents hit .284 against him. Those are certainly not dominating numbers at the minor league level. Tampa Bay's lineup will take advantage and bounce back after yesterday's disappointing low-scoring extra-innings loss. Chicago is 7-3 to the over this season after a one-run win. The over is 15-5 in Rays games when they are a home favorite of -200 or more. . Tampa Bay is also 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 5 or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
07-20-19 |
Mets v. Giants OVER 8.5 |
|
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
The Mets Walter Lockett is 0-4 with a 10.32 ERA in 6 games (5 starts) in his MLB career. Major league hitters have bounced him around to the tune of a .327 batting average. Lockett is unlikely to see those numbers improve today as he faces a red hot San Francisco team. The Giants are 14-2 in their last 16 games and have scored an average of 7.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The Mets bats also should get going in this one. The New York sticks have been quiet so far in this series but the Mets entered this series having scored an average of 5.7 runs per game in their last 17 road games. Jeff Samardzija has had a strong July including 1 home start. However, in his 3 prior home starts Samardzija compiled a 7.04 ERA. Also, the Mets hitters whom have experience against him are a combined 15 for 36 which equates to a .417 batting average! The over is 12-6 in Samardzija's starts this season and 2-0 in Lockett's starts. When the Mets have been on the road for 7 or more consecutive games this season the over is 6-2. San Francisco is 7-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they allowed 1 run or less. Bet the OVER in the Giants game in afternoon action Saturday
|
07-20-19 |
Padres +129 v. Cubs |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET
The Padres are off back to back one-run losses and have lost 6 of 7 games. This actually puts San Diego in the ideal spot to back them. Not only do they have a strong starting pitcher (Joey Lucchesi) taking the mound in this one, they also are 8-2 this season when they enter a game having lost 6 or 7 of their past 8 games. The Cubs enter this game having won 3 straight games but that is a situation that has seen Chicago go 0-5 the last 5 times it has occurred. Also, Jose Quintana gets the start for the Cubs and Chicago is 4-8 in his last 12 starts. The Padres Lucchesi has been strong as his last 11 starts have seen him produce a 3.32 ERA. By comparison, Quintana has allowed 11 earned runs in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two home starts. Road dog value is the way to go in this one! Bet San Diego on the money line in early afternoon action Saturday
|
07-19-19 |
A's +117 v. Twins |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
117 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
The A's lost yesterday's series opener at Minnesota but the past six weeks Oakland is 9-0 when coming off a loss! The Athletics were 15-5 in their 20 games preceding yesterday's loss. With that said, the A's are offering great underdog value in this spot. Oakland will have Chris Bassitt on the mound and he has a 1.54 in his 4 career appearances (one start) versus Minnesota. Bassitt made some adjustments to his pitches in his most recent start and the results paid immediate dividends. The Twins Jake Odorizzi has great numbers on the season but has a 6.46 ERA in his last 5 starts. Included in this tough stretch for Odorizzi was an ugly outing at Oakland two weeks ago. While it is true that he now gets the A's at home, it is also true that he has struggled in 2 of his 3 career starts when at home and facing the Athletics. Also, Odorizzi has been fantastic in day games this season but his ERA is nearly 3 full runs higher in night games. Last season under the lights, Odorizzi had a 5.22 ERA so this has been an ongoing pattern for him. Odorizzi's team record in his 7 career starts against the A's is 1-6. Prior to yesterday's 6-3 win the Twins had averaged only 3.5 runs per game in their last 6 games while the A's had averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last dozen games. Many will view this line as an invitation to take the home team at a small price but there is absolutely plenty of good reason as to why this game is priced the way it is and the sharp money is on the road dog in this one! Bet Oakland on the money line in evening action Friday
|
07-18-19 |
Astros v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET
Mike Trout might be back in the lineup for the Angels tonight. Either way, this one has the makings of a very high-scoring game. The Angels only scored 2 runs in last night's loss but Los Angeles entered that game having won 5 straight games and having scored an average of 9 runs per game in their 6 prior games! The Astros put up 11 runs in last night's contest and Houston has now averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game in its last 4 games against the Angels. The Astros will be facing Matt Harvey. The right-hander recently returned to the rotation and the line score would indicate that he was much better in his first start back. However, Harvey gave up a lot of hard hit balls and he was very fortunate the damage wasn't worse. Also, the Astros have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Harvey has an 8.91 ERA in his 7 starts at Angel Stadium this season. As for the Astros Wade Miley, he has been very strong at home this season but has a very mediocre 4.50 ERA in his 11 road starts this season! Miley is facing a red hot Angels lineup and note that Los Angeles ranks 3rd in the American League for runs scored in home games on the season. LA can come up big here at the plate in this one but, the Astros are highly likely to hammer Harvey and this one sees plenty of runs scored as a result. The Angels are 6-3 to the over this season as an underdog of +150 or more. The Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late night action Thursday
|
07-17-19 |
Giants v. Rockies OVER 13 |
|
11-8 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET
Very hot afternoon in Denver today with very dry air. With this being an afternoon game with absolutely ideal weather conditions, the ball is going to be jumping off the bats. We've seen plenty of very crazy, high-scoring games at Coors Field in the past with weather conditions like this as well as a pitching match-up like this. The Giants are starting Shaun Anderson and the rookie right-hander has never pitched at Coors Field. That presents a tremendous challenge for him as this ball park is a nightmare for young pitchers. Anderson doesn't miss many bats as it is. He had a strong strikeout game in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm for Anderson. The San Francisco righty still allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start and he has an 8.00 ERA in the month of July. The Rockies, after struggling thus far in this series at the plate, are very likely to have their breakout game today! As for the Giants, we see no reason for their hot hitting to slow down in this one. San Francisco is very familiar with Jon Gray. Though he has had success against the Giants this season both of those starts were at pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Last season Gray got crushed by the Giants at Coors Field and, overall, on the season he gave up 14 earned runs in 11 innings spanning 3 starts against them. Now Gray faces San Francisco when they are peaking with a hot streak. The Giants have won 11 of their last 13 games and San Francisco has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this hot stretch! The Rockies are 11-2-1 to the over as a favorite of -150 or more this season and this one should be a back and forth game featuring plenty of fireworks from each lineup. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in afternoon action Wednesday
|
07-16-19 |
Giants +120 v. Rockies |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET
The Giants got the sweep in yesterday's double-header and have now won 10 of their last 12 games. Also, the road team is now 6-2 in the last 8 games between these division rivals. San Francisco's confidence has grown a lot in their hot streak spanning a dozen games as the Giants have averaged scoring an impressive 8 runs per game! The Rockies clearly have been heading the other direction as they have lost 9 of their last 11 games. Also, Colorado has been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 9 games. Similar to the teams, these two starting pitchers are also currently heading opposite directions. The Rockies Peter Lambert has a 10.38 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Giants Drew Pomeranz had a rough start in his final start before the All Star Break. However, Pomeranz had truly turned his season around prior to that with a strong June. He had one bad start in June but in the other 4 June starts the southpaw compiled a sparkling 0.90 ERA! Also, Pomeranz has an impressive 2.45 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Rockies. Grab the underdog value with the hotter team and hotter pitcher. Bet San Francisco on the money line in evening action Tuesday
|
07-16-19 |
Braves v. Brewers OVER 9.5 |
|
1-13 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
The Brewers have averaged 10 hits per game their last 7 games but haven't been scoring many runs in recent games - held to an average of just 3.3 the last 3 games. However, Milwaukee gets their shot to put up plenty of runs here as they take advantage of facing the Braves Bryse Wilson. The Atlanta right-hander has pitched in 7 games (4 were starts) at the MLB level and he has a 6.23 ERA as opponents have hit close to .300 against him. Wilson has a 9.39 ERA in his two road starts this season. The Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff getting the start here. Though he has been strong overall for Milwaukee this season, Woodruff is facing a red hot Braves team here. Atlanta has won 8 of their last 9 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in the process. Also, Woodruff had a 5.70 ERA in his first 5 starts in June as his hot streak cooled off. He got back on track before the All Star break but now makes his first appearance on the mound in nearly 2 weeks. Woodruff could be rusty and he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters. That is an issue because you know the Braves best right-handed hitters have pop - guys like Acuna, Swanson, and Donaldson. At the same time Atlanta is also likely to have 4 left-handed bats in the lineup tonight (including switch-hitters) and Woodruff has nearly a 5.00 ERA on the season against lefties. After 5 or more consecutive wins, Atlanta's over is 4-0 this season. As a road dog of +150 or more, the Braves over is also perfect with a 3-0 mark on the year. Milwaukee's sticks are likely to bounce back tonight. The Brewers this season, after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game, are 14-7 to the over in their next game. We look for the above trends to continue here as this one flies over the total. Bet the OVER in the Brewers game in evening action Tuesday
|
07-15-19 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 |
|
8-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
The over is 9-2-1 in the dozen games between these divisional foes this season. Another high-scoring match-up is likely here based on the pitching match-up. Trent Thornton gets the start for the Blue Jays. Thornton has been absolutely crushed by the Red Sox this season (9 earned runs on 19 hits in only 9 innings) and now Boston is seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of less than a month. The Red Sox, as a result, are likely to be all over Thornton's offerings in this one. Boston is in a tough pitching spot here too. They used some extra bullpen in last night's extra innings loss to the Dodgers and, overall, their bullpen got a bit tapped out in that series. That's because the Red Sox gave up 18 runs in the final two games of the series. The overused bullpen could be an issue here considering that Boston has totaled 11 and 1 / 3 innings of relief work the past two games. Rick Porcello gets the start here for Boston. The Red Sox right-hander has given up 17 earned runs in 12 innings over his last 3 starts and that included a rough outing against the Blue Jays. Porcello has given up 21 earned runs in 18 innings over his last 4 starts against Toronto. The over is 6-2 in Porcello's last 8 starts against the Blue Jays. The over is 8-3 in Boston's last 11 home games. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Monday
|
07-14-19 |
White Sox v. A's OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox are hitting. 271 against left-handed pitching this season which ranks them #3 out of 15 teams in the American League. Chicago will be facing Oakland's Brian Anderson in this one. The A's southpaw has struggled in afternoon games this season. In his 7 day game starts Anderson has been hit at a .324 clip and has a 6.09 ERA! His counterpart on the mound for the White Sox today is Reynaldo Lopez. The Chicago right-hander has been very consistent this season...consistently bad! Lopez has pledged to make adjustments and be better but he has shown no evidence of that. He is 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA on the road this season and opponents have hit .314 against him away from home. Lopez has managed a quality start only twice in his last eight outings! He has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 road starts. He is facing a red hot Oakland team that has won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 9.6 runs per game in those 9 victories. Considering that stat as well as the fact that the Anderson is also likely to struggle for the A's here, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs scored in this match-up. Oakland's over is 7-2 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. This is the 15th Sunday game for the A's this season and so far only 4 of them have resulted in an under. That trend continues with another high-scoring Sunday afternoon game on tap here! Bet the OVER in the Athletics game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-14-19 |
Nationals v. Phillies -105 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
The season is more than half-way over and there has been only time this entire season that the Phillies have been swept at home. That almost could be considered a fluke too as it came against the lowly Marlins. Philadelphia won't overlook Washington in the same way they did Miami and, after blowing a 3-0 lead in yesterday's loss, the Phillies will bounce back today. They came within one out of a win yesterday but allowed a 2-out 2-run bomb that decided the game. It was a rare blown save opportunity for Hector Neris. He has been strong for the Phillies this season and, similar to the aforementioned sweep at the hands of the Marlins, one could consider it an aberration. The pitching match-up today favors the Phillies. Jake Arrieta gets the start and the extra rest afforded by the All Star break will do him some good as it allowed his elbow a chance to heal up. He has dominated the Nationals in both starts against them this season and is a fierce competitor. Arrieta knows how critical this game is for the Phillies and we expect him to be at his best in a must-win divisional match-up. Washington counters with Anibal Sanchez. The veteran right-hander has plenty of history against the Phillies and most of it (particularly starts in Philadelphia) is not good! Sanchez is 2-8 in his 10 decisions in starts in Philly. He has had 4 no-decisions there and all 4 of those were team losses. Sanchez is off back to back strong starts but he faced two of the worst teams from each league (NL-Miami and AL-Detroit). The last time he faced a quality opponent, Sanchez gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings against the Braves and took the loss. Per our computer math model, a similar result is expected Sunday in Philly as his long-term struggles there resume. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in very early afternoon action Sunday
|
07-13-19 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -1.5 |
|
11-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
24 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Boston Red Sox (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Red Sox are priced in the -165 range on the money line which is a little pricey but we can put the odds in our favor by laying the -1.5 runs here for the plus money (+115 range) return. Boston is expected to roll here per a significant pitching edge in this match-up. The Dodgers are starting Ross Stripling. He has an 8.00 ERA in his 2 starts in the month of July. Overall, the LA right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts (17 hits allowed in 12 innings) since taking the spot of Rich Hill in the rotation. Stripling will be opposed by Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw is anxious to get back on the hill after a tough start closed out his first half of the season. Though he has given up more runs than usual in his last few starts, Sale has continued to pile up strikeouts and, in many respects, deserved better than what the line score ended up showing. The Dodgers are not very familiar with him (other than Sale mowing them down to close out last year's World Series) and that gives the lefty (with deceptive stuff) a big edge in this match-up. Sale has struck out 153 in his 107 innings on the mound this season. Opponents are hitting just .196 against Sale in night starts this season. 22 of the Dodgers 32 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 36 of Boston's 49 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. The bullpens are nearly equal. The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in the majors when at home while the Dodgers are not as strong at the plate when away from home. Combining that with the big starting pitching edge here and a home blowout is on tap at Fenway Park. Bet Boston -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday
|
07-12-19 |
Pirates v. Cubs OVER 9.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET
Chris Archer has been struggling and is on a five-start winless streak. He allowed 2 homers to the Cubs in his final start before the All-Star break. Now Archer faces Chicago again and this time it is at Wrigley Field on a warm summer afternoon with favorable (though rather light) winds expected. The long ball should play a big role in this one as Archer has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 road starts. He is opposed by Yu Darvish in this one. The Cubs right-hander's most recent start was against the Pirates and he allowed a pair of homers. Darvish has allowed multiple homers now in 4 of his last 5 starts including 3 in a row. His most recent start was at Pittsburgh and the fact he now hosts the Pirates in this one is not going to help him. Darvish is 0-6 with a 5.91 ERA in his 13 career starts at Wrigley Field. There have been only 3 unders in the last 10 starts Darvish has made. There have been only 2 unders in the last 8 starts Archer has made. The over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 games. The over is also a perfect 5-0 this season when Pittsburgh enters a game off two straight home wins against division rivals. The over is 17-6 this season when Chicago is off a loss by a margin of two runs or less. Per our computer math model, this game turns into a slug-fest with plenty of home run power leading to double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in early afternoon action Friday
|
07-07-19 |
A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's. He had a decent May after being called up from AAA Las Vegas but he has struggled since then. The Oakland right-hander has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 appearances (2 starts). He only allowed 1 earned run in a recent start against the Mariners but he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 in just 4 innings of work so Mengden was certainly very fortunate. That was earlier this season. In prior seasons, Mengden is winless in 4 appearances (3 starts) against Seattle and he has a 5.89 ERA in those outings. You can see why the expectation is for him to struggle here against a potent Mariners lineup. Seattle is slated to use right-hander Matt Carasiti as an opener here. That makes sense as the #1 and #2 hitters in the A's lineup are right-handed sticks. However, Carasiti is likely to go just one inning at most and then he'll give way to Wade LeBlanc. Essentially LeBlanc is the starter even though he is not listed as such. The southpaw is expected to see most of the action here and he has been rocked by Oakland this season. In two appearances (one start) against the A's this season, LeBlanc has an 11.74 ERA and Oakland is hitting .378 against him this season! Behind LeBlanc is a Seattle bullpen that has a 5.07 ERA this season. That is the second worst mark in the American League. Prior to being held to 3 runs in yesterday's loss, the Athletics scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 prior games and they'll bounce back here. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game in their past 10 home games. Not surprisingly, our computer math model is forecasting a dozen runs in this match-up. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-06-19 |
Yankees v. Rays -130 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET
The Rays Blake Snell had an ugly start at Yankee Stadium recently but prior to that he absolutely dominated New York i each of his first two outings against them this season. When we speak of domination we're talking about more than 20 strikeouts in less than a dozen innings of work. Snell is fully capable of spinning a gem here at home at Tropicana Field. As for the Yankees CC Sabathia, he will wish he was at home like Snell is. While the Yankees veteran southpaw has been solid at home this season he has been awful away from home. His good overall numbers against the Rays this season were comprised of mostly home outings. Away from home this season Sabathia has a 6.30 ERA. Also, in his last 6 starts overall Sabathia has a 5.23 ERA. The Rays at home with Snell on the mound and in the -135 price range makes them a value play in this spot. This is particularly true after tough back to back extra innings losses in this series and now having their ace on the mound Saturday. Bet Tampa Bay on the money line in late afternoon action Saturday
|
07-06-19 |
Royals v. Nationals OVER 9 |
|
0-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
The Nationals Max Scherzer has great numbers on the season but could be a bit distracted for this start as he was on paternity leave this week. He and his wife celebrated the birth of their second child this week. Scherzer has very few weaknesses but he is known to be hit much harder by lefties than righties and more than half the Royals lineup Saturday might be comprised of guys stepping in on that side of the box. The past 3 seasons combined Scherzer has been hit 60 points higher by lefties than righties. Also the slugging percentage is 111 points higher for lefties than righties during this stretch. Of course the big key to this play is expecting a ton of runs from the Nationals. That is why Washington is such a huge money line favorite in this spot. That makes the Nationals too pricey to play (even on the run line) but note that some of our computer math model simulations for this game project Washington to score double digits by themselves. That is because the Royals bullpen (just like the Nationals) is certainly unimpressive and the KC starter, Glenn Sparkman, has been getting rocked away from home. In his last 3 road starts Sparkman has allowed 13 earned runs in less than a dozen innings on the mound! In 7 games (4 starts) on the road this season, Sparkman has a 10.13 ERA. Bet the OVER in the Nationals game in late afternoon action Saturday
|
07-05-19 |
Phillies +163 v. Mets |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
163 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
This one is all about the line value. The Philadelphia Phillies are off back to back ugly losses but this is still a quality team that is ahead of the slumping Mets in the National League East. Even though Jacob deGrom is on the mound for New York, this is a Mets team that is 2-6 in his home starts this season! Overall, New York enters this game having lost 8 of their past 10 games. It is hard to fathom the Mets being a large favorite against anyone with the way they've been playing. Yes, the Phillies are off back to back ugly losses but they are 13-5 this season when off a game in which they allowed 8 or more runs. Also, Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 this season when they are off back to back defeats that each came by a margin of 4 or more runs. The Phillies have won 6 straight games over the Mets and they have been dominant as Philadelphia has won those games by an average margin of 3 runs per victory! Vince Velasquez gets the start for Philly here and he has been rock solid in 5 of his last 6 starts at Citi Field. One poor start in that stretch but in the other 5 outings Velasquez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs on just 18 hits in 28 innings of work! The Phillies, prior to back to back losses, had won 6 of their past 8 games and they are poised to make it 7 straight wins over the Mets with yet another big win over New York in this one. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
07-05-19 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Not only is the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez 3-11 with a 6.31 ERA this season, the right-hander is getting progressively worse month by month. After a solid start to the season, Sanchez went 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in May. He followed that up in June by going 0-6 with a 12.00 ERA. Opponents are hitting about .350 against him the past two months! Now Sanchez faces an Orioles team that has averaged scoring 6.3. runs per game their last 11 games. Baltimore will need plenty of scoring in this one because their own pitcher is likely to struggle as well. The Orioles are starting Dylan Bundy and he is 3-10 with a 4.91 ERA. Last season Bundy went 8-16 with a 5.45 ERA. Bundy has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 3 starts (16 and 2 / 3 innings) against the Blue Jays. The Orioles also have the worst bullpen in the majors based on a 6.12 ERA so far this season! The over is 16-5-1 in the Jays last 22 games and their offensive production has led the way. Toronto has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in their past 22 games. Our computer math model is forecasting a range of 12 to 14 runs scored in this game and that means value here as this total is set at 10.5 runs this morning. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Friday
|
07-04-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
It looks like Jose Quintana is off a great start at Cincinnati Saturday as the line score for him shows 0 earned runs in 6 innings. However, he gave up one hard hit ball after another after another...it was one of those days where the line drives simply were hit right at guys. Quintana was not fooling the hitters and the lefty entered that outing with a 6.75 ERA in his 6 prior outings. Now the southpaw faces a Pirates team that has been very hot at the plate. With their 6-5 win yesterday, Pittsburgh has won 12 of 17 games and the Pirates have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their past 21 games! Only 7 of the Pirates past 21 games (33%) have resulted in an under. Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Pirates are 13-6 to the over this season in games against left-handed starters. Only 11 of the Cubs 33 games (33%) this season have resulted in an under when they are facing a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh starter Jordan Lyles has a 4.94 ERA in his day game starts this season. Also, he was off to a strong start this season but reality is setting in as he went winless with a 6.00 ERA in his 3 June starts. In 230 career games (128 starts) Lyles has a 5.15 ERA at the MLB level. In other words, his long-term numbers tell the full story! While Lyles got the better of the Cubs way back in early April, weather conditions then were much different than they are now. Also, Chicago has had just 5 unders in their past 15 games and the Cubs have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 13-7-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Cubs blew another save opportunity yesterday and Chicago and Pittsburgh both are in the bottom third of the save percentage rankings. The bullpens will be our friend in this game too! Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Thursday
|
07-03-19 |
Indians v. Royals OVER 9 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
Until Mike Cleviniger sorts things out there is every reason to believe he will get lit up when he steps on the mound. In his two starts since returning from the injured list the Indians right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 7 innings! In his two road starts this season Clevinger has given up 12 earned runs in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. The Royals start Danny Duffy in this one and the Indians have had his number to say the least! In Duffy's last 3 starts against the Tribe he has given up 16 earned runs in 10 innings. Incredibly, Duffy is 0-9 in his last 9 starts versus Cleveland he has compiled a 9.61 ERA in those 9 outings. To recap, Clevinger's current form is down as he has had an injury-plagued 2019 thus far and, as you can see, Duffy has almost no chance of enjoying success tonight against the Indians as they give him trouble nearly every time they see him! The over is 3-0 in Duffy's last 3 starts versus Cleveland and there have been no unders in Clevinger's last 3 starts versus the Royals! With yesterday's game totaling 14 runs, the over is 8-5 in the Indians last 13 games and a perfect 4-0 in Kansas City's last 4 games. Per our computer math model, Wednesday's match-up also reaches a total of double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Wednesday
|
07-03-19 |
Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 5 to 2 favorite (-$250 range) but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at -$130 price range here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his four career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 12-0 the last 12 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 12 starts against Miami. 33 of Washington's 43 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 41 of Marlins 51 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. We successfully used the same play when these guys squared off Thursday in Miami and now the rematch is in DC and we look for the Nationals to make it 13 in a row when Strasburg faces the Marlins as Alcantara drops to 0-5 in 5 career starts against the Nats. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday
|
07-02-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 |
|
1-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Cubs Kyle Hendricks has made 14 starts this season split between 7 at home and 7 on the road. At Wrigley Field Hendricks has been fantastic this season but away from home has been a different story altogether. In road starts this season Hendricks is 3-4 with a 5.49 ERA and the opposition has a .290 batting average. The Pirates are swinging the sticks extremely well right now and absolutely crushed the Cubs bullpen last night. Not only did Chicago starting pitcher Alzolay get rocked for 7 earned runs in under 3 innings on the mound, each of the 4 hurlers that appeared out of the bullpen last night for the Cubs gave up multiple earned runs! Speaking of bullpens, the Pirates pen ranks as one of the worst in the majors this year with a 4.93 ERA on the season. That could be an issue here as Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove is likely to struggle more than most are expecting here. He is off a huge start against his former team and now could be flat in this start. Plus, though Musgrove did not allow an earned run against the Astros, he was hit hard for the 2nd time in his last 3 starts. Looking at his last 3 starts he was great against the Padres but in the other two outings Musgrove allowed 18 hits in just 10 innings of work. In fact, prior to the start versus San Diego, Musgrove's last four starts where he worked at least 4 innings saw him allow 5 earned runs or more in 3 of the 4 outings. When teams get their 2nd looks at Musgrove this season they have often crushed him in that second start. This will be the second time he is starting against the Cubs this season and we look for that trend to continue to hold true. The over is 11-5 in Musgrove's starts this season. Per our computer math model, another high-scoring game is on tap in the 2nd game of this series. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in early evening action Tuesday
|
07-01-19 |
Brewers -109 v. Reds |
|
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Brewers, at the plate, are ranked among the top teams in the National League against right-handed pitching as they have a .332 on base percentage and .443 slugging percentage. Milwaukee is likely to give the Reds Tyler Mahle plenty of trouble in this one. Mahle has a 5.40 ERA in his last 6 starts as he has endured some struggles since mid-May. The Brewers Adrian Houser has mostly worked out of the bullpen the past two months and did struggle in his most recent start. However, he chalked that one up to nerves as it was only the 2nd MLB start of his career. Now, for the first time in his career, he gets to be in the starting role in back to back appearances and a much stronger outing is likely. The reason for that is that he certainly has proven how tough he can be on major league hitters. Even with the ugly start last week included, the months of May and June saw Houser compile a sparkling 1.82 ERA. The Reds have very little familiarity with him and the guys that have seen him some certainly have not fared well - a combined 1 for 10 at the plate! The Brewers lost their first match-up with the Reds last season but since that time have proceed to go 19-8 in their last 27 games against Cincinnati. Milwaukee has again been much stronger in divisional games than Cincinnati this season. Also, the Reds are a poor 15-25 this season when the money line is +125 to -125. Long-term Cincinnati is 9-17 at home at home when the total is set at 10 or 10.5 runs. The Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 divisional games as they did it again by knocking off the Pirates yesterday. Milwaukee has allowed an average of only 2.2 runs per game their last 5 games. Cincinnati has allowed 5.6 runs per game their last 8 games. Prior to yesterday's win over the Cubs, the slumping Reds had lost 5 of 6. Look for the Brewers long-term dominance in this series to continue with a big road win in the series opener. Bet Milwaukee on the money line in early evening action Monday
|
06-30-19 |
Braves -104 v. Mets |
|
5-8 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Atlanta Braves over New York Mets, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET
Noah Syndergaard is coming back from a hamstring injury. Not only is the first start in two weeks likely to be tough for him, the fact is that he hasn't been the same pitcher this season. The Mets right-hander has a 4.55 ERA this season. Another key stat worthy of noting here is that Syndergaard allowed opponents to hit .286 against him in night games last season and the same is holding true this season. He has been strong in day games in 2019 but, under the lights, Syndergaard has a 5.89 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .295 against him. While the Mets are slumping badly and have lost 7 straight games, the Braves have been red hot and no team in the National League (and only 1 in all of the majors) has more road wins (26) than Atlanta this season. With that being said, we like the value here of having the much better team at a pick'em price when they are coming in red hot like they are. Another key edge for the Braves here is their bullpen ERA is one of the best in the majors this season while the Mets bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this season. Collapse after collapse (the Phillies series and yesterday's loss to Atlanta) has been the theme for the New York bullpen of late. Atlanta starter Max Fried is 9-3 on the season and has gone 8-3 with a 3.87 ERA and a .259 batting average against in night games this season. In 3 career starts against the Mets (all going at least 5 innings) Fried has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs. As for Syndergaard against the Braves, he had a strong start last September but entered that outing having been hit hard (with 3 or more earned runs allowed) in 3 of his 4 prior starts versus Atlanta. Per our computer math model, significant edges for the road team in this one. Bet Atlanta on the money line in evening action Sunday
|
06-30-19 |
Indians v. Orioles OVER 10 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 1:10 PM ET
The Indians have been shutout by identical 13-0 scores in the first two games of this 3-game set. Cleveland entered this series having gone 5-2 and averaging 7 runs per game in their prior road trip. The lineup for the Tribe is sure to bounce back in this one. They face Gabriel Ynoa and have given him a ton of trouble in his career appearances against them. Also, Ynoa enters this start struggling badly as he has allowed 13 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings in his last two starts. The Indians start Shane Bieber whom had a great start against the Orioles recently but that was in Cleveland. Results are likely to be much different at Oriole Park at Camden Yards as Baltimore has been swinging the bats very well and now get a second shot at Bieber after seeing him for the very first time. The Orioles have averaged scoring 7.7 runs per game in their past 7 games. Baltimore has scored an average of 8 runs per game in their past 5 home games. The over is 13-2-1 in their Orioles last 16 games including 7 straight games going over the total. The Baltimore bullpen ERA is the worst of any team in the American League. So Ynoa gives it up and so too will the pen and, at the same time, the lineup stays hot for Baltimore. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
06-29-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 6-3 in the top of the 7th but ended that way for a frustrating push (or loss) for those whom had the over in that one. Look for today's game to more than make up for that shortfall. It will be a very steamy afternoon at Great American Ball Park Saturday and day games like this in Cincinnati have a tendency to turn the ball park into a bandbox with plenty of big extra base hits including some long balls leaving the yard. The Reds Luis Castillo has some great numbers this season but walks are becoming an issue as he has struggled with command of his pitches in recent starts. He is struggling to throw his fastball for strikes and that can lead to free passes for the hitters as well as some mistake pitches that get crushed. The potent Cubs lineup can certainly make Castillo pay. The Reds right-hander has walked 11 in less than 10 innings over his last two starts and that includes an ugly outing at Miller Park last Saturday as another divisional foe, the Brewers, gave him plenty of trouble. The Cubs lineup will do the same here but Chicago's issue in this one is also on the mound. The Cubs start Jose Quintana in this one. The southpaw is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. Quintana is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against Cincinnati. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Quintana. The over is 10-5-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in late afternoon action Saturday
|
06-28-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Friday at 10:15 PM ET
The Giants struggled badly against a rookie southpaw yesterday but that was to be expected as they have been horrible against left-handed pitching this season. The last 6 times San Francisco has matched up with Arizona having a right-handed starter on the mound, the Giants have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game. A number of hitters in the SF lineup have enjoyed success against the starter, Merrill Kelley, they will be facing tonight. The same is true going the other way too as the Diamondbacks have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed solid success against Giants starter Shaun Anderson. This will be the 3rd time in the past 6 weeks that these lineups have seen these starters and that is also an edge for the hitters. Arizona has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in its last 3 road games. Overall, the Diamondbacks have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their past 12 games and the total on this game was set at an 8 but has been bet down to a 7.5 which is leading to exceptional value here for the over. Diamondbacks Friday games this season are 8-4-1 to the over. Previous to yesterday's game staying under the total, Arizona road games were on a 6-2 run to the over. Per our computer math model, this game has high probability of reaching double digits in runs scored so the trending toward the over in Diamondbacks road games should resume. Giants over is 14-9-2 this season at home when the money line is +125 to -125. That is the case here and we recommend to bet the OVER in the Giants game in late night action Friday
|
06-27-19 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins |
|
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 2 to 1 favorite but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at nearly a pick'em price here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his three career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 11-0 the last 11 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 11 starts against Miami. 31 of Washington's 39 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 39 of Marlins 48 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday
|
06-26-19 |
Rangers +101 v. Tigers |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
101 |
15 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Texas over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rangers Mike Minor does not have good history against the Tigers but, keep in mind, he has not pitched at Detroit since 2013. With that being said, he certainly is not pitching in 2019 like he was six years ago! In fact, Minor's last 11 starts have seen him go 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA. The Texas left-hander is likely to dominate a Tigers lineup that continues to struggle to score runs. Detroit has lost 9 of its last 10 games and averaged scoring only 3.3 runs in the process. This should not come as a huge surprise as the Tigers are averaging only 3.3 runs in their home games this season. Detroit hands the ball to Matthew Boyd for this one. The southpaw has a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 6 homers in these 3 outings. The Rangers have won 7 of their last 11 games and also 3 of their last 4 road games. That being the case, this is a textbook example of two teams heading opposite directions and the Rangers are offered at a very fair price in this one. Bet Texas on the money line in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-26-19 |
Mets v. Phillies OVER 10.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
15 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Washington has the worst bullpen in the NL this season but the Mets and Phillies certainly are giving them a run for their money in that unwanted category. New York's 5.36 bullpen ERA is 2nd to dead last in the NL. Philadelphia's bullpen has allowed opponents to hit .272 this season and that is 2nd to dead last in the NL. Those bullpens certainly could be a factor with this total because the Mets Jason Vargas is averaging just 4 and 1 / 3 innings per road start this season and has a 4.65 ERA away from home. The Phillies Nick Pivetta is averaging only 5 and 1 / 3 innings per home start this season and has a 5.84 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. The over is 4-2 in Pivetta's home starts and 4-2 in the road starts made by Vargas this season. Overall, the Mets are 22-8-4 to the over in all their games since May 21st. The Phillies offense is back on track after scoring 20 runs in winning the first two games of this series. However, Philadelphia has also allowed 5 or more runs in 9 of their past 11 games. That is why it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting this one to end up with 12 to 13 runs. The over is 4-1 in the 5 meetings between these teams in Philly this season and this one is set up well for that record to move to 5-1 on the year. Bet the OVER in the Phillies game in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-25-19 |
Pirates v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday
|
06-24-19 |
White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
Lucas Giolito has had great success this season but he is showing signs that, as expected, a regression to the mean could be forthcoming. In his last two starts he has walked 7 batters and allowed 4 homers. Giolito's most recent start was particularly poor and, like this one, was also on the road. Giolito allowed 6 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings at Wrigley Field against the Cubs last week. Now he faces one of the top hitting home teams in the league. The Red Sox have a .452 slugging percentage at home this season. That strong mark ranks them 5th in the American League on the year. Giolito allowed 7 hits and 3 earned runs in 5 innings when he faced the Red Sox in Chicago earlier this season. . Facing them at Fenway Park will be even tougher. The Boston bats had a tough day Sunday but should bounce back here. The Red Sox, prior to Sunday's loss, had won 8 of their past 10 games and averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game. The White Sox lineup wasted some opportunities in yesterday's 7-4 loss at Texas as they did pound out 10 hits. Chicago still managed to score 4 runs and they have scored 4 or more in 7 of their past 10 games. Considering this total is set at 9 runs we have great value with the low number. The White Sox will take advantage of facing Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox lefty allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start That one was on the road but, even when at home, Rodriguez has been struggling. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. The over is 11-1 this season in night game starts for Rodriguez and also 11-1 when Boston is favored in his start. They are the favorite again in this one and our math model forecast is showing double digits in runs in the forecast for this one. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Monday
|
06-23-19 |
Padres v. Pirates UNDER 9 |
|
10-11 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET
The Padres are hitting .235 versus southpaws this season and that ranks them 25th in the majors! The Pirates have a .385 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 26th in the majors. Considering those facts as well as the way these two lefty starters have been pitching, you have an ideal set up for an under in this one. San Diego starter Joey Lucchesi already had a fastball and "churve" but now he has added a devastating cutter to his repertoire of pitches. That has led the way to him allowing 3 or less earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault has been fantastic in his last 6 games as he has a 2.05 ERA during this stretched marked by very sharp outings. Each of Brault's last two starts and Lucchesi's two starts have resulted in games that stayed under the total. The Padres have played 8 road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season and only 1 of the 8 has resulted in an over. The Pirates have been a team trending over but this lefty on lefty match-up sets this one up quite differently than yesterday's game. Lucchesi has a 1.50 ERA in his two career starts against Pittsburgh. Brault has a 1.25 ERA in his last 4 starts. Per our computer math model, this one is likely to be a tight low-scoring battle between two solid left-handers. Bet the UNDER in the Pirates game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
06-22-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
After yesterday's surprising pitchers duel, don't be surprised when you witness a much different type of game this afternoon at PNC Park. The Pirates will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has been struggling badly. Archer has only one quality start in his last 9 appearances and he has compiled a 7.33 ERA during this very rough extended stretch. The Padres start Chris Paddack in this one. The San Diego right-hander is returning from a stint with Lake Elsinore in single-A ball as he worked on his repertoire of pitches and also tried to rest a tired arm. Paddack has good numbers on the season but his recent starts are quite telling. San Diego is 0-3 in his last 3 starts as he has compiled a 7.54 ERA in these outings. Also, he is facing a Pirates lineup that had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 9 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. The Padres lineup also should do plenty of damage here. Not only will they take advantage of a struggling Archer, San Diego had scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss. In Pirates home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 9-3 this season. San Diego was 12-5-1 to the over in the month of June before Friday's pitchers duel. Both teams bullpens have some unimpressive numbers too as the Padres have a bullpen ERA of 5.52 this season in road games while the Pirates bullpen ERA is 5.60 this season in home games. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Saturday
|
06-21-19 |
Reds +112 v. Brewers |
|
11-7 |
Win
|
112 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Money Line: Cincinnati over Milwaukee, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
The Reds have won 5 straight games. The Brewers have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Cincinnati starting pitcher Sonny Gray has a 3.21 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. Milwaukee starting pitcher Chase Anderson is without a win in his three June starts and has produced a 5.79 ERA in these outings. Anderson got roughed up by the Reds (and was knocked out of the game during the 4th inning) the last time he faced Cincinnati. For the Reds, Gray was fantastic at Miller Park last month and is now 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two career starts versus Milwaukee. The Brewers enter this contest having been held to 1 run or less in 3 of their last 4 games! The Reds enter this one having scored an average of 5.6 runs per game during this 5-game winning streak. Two teams (and batting lineups) heading in opposite directions right now! Bet Cincinnati on the money line in evening action Friday
|
06-21-19 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Braves hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel for this one. Making his first start there is going to be rust and, in fact, Keuchel did get roughed up in one of his two minor league starts as he tried to get up to speed in preparation for this start. The Braves recently signed left-hander will be making his first start since October. Keuchel is facing a red hot Nationals team that is rolling with confidence after sweeping the Phillies. Washington has won 4 straight games and has scored 7.5 runs per game in doing so. The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg here and he has allowed 5 or more earned runs in each of his last two home starts. Also, the last time Strasburg faced the Braves in Washington he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 and 2 / 3 innings. Atlanta enters this game having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game their last 11 games. The Braves are 14-4 this month and have scored 7 or more runs in 12 of the 18 games. The over is 15-3 in Atlanta's games this month. Also, the over is 9-0 this season when the Braves are playing after a day off. Atlanta was not in action yesterday so that system is in play today. Washington is 6-3 to the over their last 9 games. Per our computer math model, this one reaches double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Nationals game in early evening action Friday
|
06-20-19 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET
The Rockies remain red hot. With their 6-4 win over Greinke and the Dbacks yesterday, Colorado is averaging 8.8 runs per game during a 9-game stretch that has seen the Rockies win 6 of 9. Arizona also had been hot at the plate as they had averaged 6.4 runs per game in their 10-game stretch that preceded this series. The over is 16-10-1 in Rockies divisional games this season. The over is 2-0 in Robbie Ray's last two starts. Also, when facing the Rockies, the Diamondbacks left-hander has been charged with 15 runs (10 earned) in his last 3 starts even though those outings have averaged only 5 innings each versus Colorado. Ray enters this start off an outing that saw him allow 5 earned runs in 6 innings of work. The Rockies are starting Jeff Hoffman and he is 1-3 with a 7.04 ERA this season. Hoffman has particularly struggled on the road where he is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA. In this one Hoffman faces an Arizona club against whom he is 1-2 with a 10.79 ERA in three career starts. Based on the match-up edges here for the lineups against these starting hurlers, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for double digits in runs scored in this game. Bet the OVER in the Diamondbacks game in afternoon action Thursday
|
06-19-19 |
Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
After yesterday's pitchers duel, our computer math model is calling for a big game from both lineups in the Wednesday match-up. That forecast is not surprising when considering the pitching match-up here. The Angels are starting Andrew Heaney in this one. The LA southpaw has had limited action this season and the long-term numbers show a strong trend of struggling on the road. Entering this season, Heaney's past 3 seasons have seen him produce a 2-9 record with a 5.60 ERA in road starts. This will be Heaney's first ever start at the Rogers Centre. He has shown a propensity for struggling in his first start at a venue. The over is 6-2 this season in Wednesday games for the Angels. The over is 5-1-1 this season when the Blue Jays are a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Toronto is starting Aaron Sanchez in this one. After a poor May, the thinking was that Sanchez would bounce back in June or, at least, that is what the Jays hoped for. However, the fact is that things have gone from bad to worse for the Jays right-hander. After going 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in May, Sanchez is now 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in the month of June. Now he faces a potent Angels lineup that has helped produce a 7-3 run for Los Angeles. In those 10 games LA has scored an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Blue Jays, prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate, had scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in their last 6 games. Toronto will take advantage of Heaney's long-term road struggles and bounce back at the plate in this one but look for the Angels to score plenty as well with the poor recent form of Sanchez continuing for the Blue Jays. The result is a game that should see at least a dozen runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-18-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. Reds |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
While we certainly would not be comfortable laying a -175 price range (the opening number) on the money line on a road team, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the even money price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Cincinnati enters today's game with a 32-38 record on the season. 23 of the Reds 38 losses (including 13 of last 15) have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in those 15 losses is 3 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 48-25 record this season. 34 of the Astros last 42 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 17 of the Astros 21 wins away from Houston this season have come by 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Reds are 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani's 4 home starts this season and he has a 4.79 ERA in those outings plus has been hit hard in recent home starts. The Astros start Justin Verlander here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in 33 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 12-4 this season in Verlander's starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are 20-7 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday
|
06-18-19 |
Tigers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
This total opened up at a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 and this is largely due to the Tigers and Pirates being two of the weaker teams in MLB. However, just because these ball clubs are near or at the bottom of their respective divisions does not mean they don't score runs when facing struggling pitchers. First off, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors as both teams rank in the bottom 20% of the majors based on bullpen ERA this season. Secondly, each of these starters are likely to get rocked. The Pirates are starting rookie Mitch Keller and he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his first two starts even though he has not lasted more than 4 innings in either start. As for Tigers starter Daniel Norris, he has a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts and has allowed 23 hits in 16 innings over those three outings. The Detroit lineup has produced poor results recently but facing the rookie Keller will bring out the best in them Tuesday. As for the Pirates lineup against Norris, it is worth noting that Pittsburgh scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in their final 10 games of May and they have carried those stronger results at the plate right into June as well. This month, the Pirates have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in their 15 games month to date. This, of course, has played a big role in the over going 19-6-1 in Pittsburgh's last 26 games. Per our computer math model, this one reaches double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in early evening action Tuesday
|
06-17-19 |
Astros +108 v. Reds |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Astros are off an embarrassing 12-0 home loss yesterday. While it is true that the Reds have been better this season in comparison with last year, Cincinnati is still certainly not at the level of this Houston ball club. With that being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a road rout in this game. The Astros Wade Miley has given up more than 3 earned runs only ONCE in his last 14 starts. Houston has a 10-4 record in games started by the southpaw. The Reds are starting Luis Castillo in this one. The Cincinnati right-hander has great numbers on the season but he has had some issues with command of his pitches in recent starts. Castillo was fortunate to escape a major jam in his start against Cleveland last week. Also, in his two previous starts, Castillo walked 4 in each outing despite totaling only 11 and 1 / 3 innings in those two games. Miley's team record in his 10 career starts against the Reds is 8-2 and the lefty has compiled a sparkling 2.89 ERA in those 10 starts. Cincinnati got a big win versus Texas yesterday but entered that game having lost 8 of 11 games! The Astros, prior to yesterday's ugly home shutout loss, had won 13 of 17 games! Houston is 15-5 after being shutout and also 20-6 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati is 11-20 this season when off a win in their previous game. Bet the Astros in early evening action Monday
|
06-16-19 |
Rangers v. Reds UNDER 9 |
|
3-11 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET
Yesterday's 4-3 Rangers win stayed under the total. That means the Reds have now stayed under the total in all 11 of their games so far this month. Per our computer math model. the under trend is poised to reach 12 in row for Cincinnati early this afternoon. The Reds are starting Sonny Gray and the veteran right-hander has allowed only 5 hits or less in each of his last 5 starts. None of his last 4 starts have resulted in an over. Behind Gray is a Cincinnati bullpen that has performed well this month and that has also keyed the under streak. The Reds have been struggling at the plate. Cincinnati managed just 4 hits in yesterday's loss. The Reds have averaged just 6 hits per game their last 10 games! Cincinnati is likely to struggle with Ariel Jurado. The Rangers right-hander is 3-0 in his last 4 starts and has managed a 3.70 ERA in those outings. The Reds hitters have no experience with his offerings. Texas games have stayed under in 10 of 15 games this month. Rangers games have stayed under in 23 of 37 this season against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati's games have stayed under in 26 of 37 games against teams with a winning record this season. Reds games also have stayed under in 6 of 7 games this season in inter-league action. Bet the UNDER in the Reds game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
06-15-19 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
8-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The Padres have a .449 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 3rd out of the 15 teams in the National League. The Rockies have a .460 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them 8th out of all 30 teams in the majors. Colorado should pound San Diego southpaw Eric Lauer in this one. The lefty has some strong recent numbers but pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge for pitchers and Lauer is no exception. Yesterday's game went 12 innings and featured 28 runs scored! Lauer enters this start already having ill feelings about this ballpark. He lasted just 3 innings in each of the two starts he has made at Coors Field in his career. Lauer's ERA in those two starts is an ugly 21.00 at Colorado. The over is 9-3 in San Diego's June games and the Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. The Rockies have averaged 7.6 runs per game over the first 5 games of this 6-game homestand. Colorado has allowed 10.7 runs per game in its last 3 home games. German Marquez gets the start for the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has seen opponents knock him around for a better than .300 batting average in his home starts this season. Marquez has a 4.85 ERA in home starts last season and this season combined. The Padres bullpen has a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and the Rockies bullpen has a 5.05 ERA in home games this season. Marquez only allowed 2 earned runs when he faced San Diego last month but he was very fortunate as he allowed 10 hits in under 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, he won't be so fortunate in the rematch with Lauer and the latter hurler gets knocked around also. The teams combined for 14 innings of bullpen work in yesterday's extra innings affair so both bullpens are a bit tapped out heading into this one! The over is 4-0-1 in Lauer's road starts and 5-2-1 in the 8 home starts Marquez has made this season. All signs pointing to another slugfest in this series Saturday! Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Saturday
|
06-14-19 |
Yankees v. White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
2-10 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
Lucas Giolito has put up great numbers this season but he also has been quite fortunate in terms of the match-ups. 8 of his 12 starts have come against 3 of the worst hitting teams in the AL. Those 8 starts for Giolito have come against the Royals, Blue Jays, and Indians. On Friday Giolito faces a much tougher match-up as the White Sox are hosting the Yankees. Giolito has a 9.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his two starts against the Yankees. One was in August and the other was earlier this season. Now Giolito will be tested by a Yankees team that is averaging 6 runs per game on the road this season. That is one of the top marks in the majors for scoring away from home. The White Sox lineup should fare well against veteran CC Sabathia. Chicago is averaging 5 runs per game and hitting .265 this season against left-handed pitching. Sabathia is 0-2 and has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 innings in his two starts since returning from injury. The Yankees had gone over the total in 4 straight games before yesterday's match-up with the White Sox stayed just under the total. The over remains impressive (22-8-2) in Yankees road games this season. In 10 Friday games this season, Chicago is 6-3-1 to the over. Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in evening action Friday
|
06-13-19 |
Angels v. Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rays Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.56 ERA in 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his two career appearances versus the Angels. The Tampa Bay left-hander has been roughed up at home this season as he has a 7.25 ERA in the 22 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his 5 appearances (1 start) at home this year. The Angels also have a southpaw on the mound in this one as Los Angeles hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs. The lefty has given up 16 runs (15 earned) in the 15 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Also, Skaggs is 0-2 with a 10.51 ERA in his last two starts against the Rays. You can see why both these starting pitchers are likely to get roughed up here in this one. 7 of the Angels 9 Thursday games have gone over the total this season. The Rays have been trending under in recent games but there is a reason the over in this match-up is getting attention. Some 9's are showing up this morning on this total as the sharps are pointing to the over in this one. The Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the majors based on their cumulative ERA in relief action. The Rays bullpen has been strong this season but did struggle in the series with the A's which just wrapped up yesterday. All these factors combine to lead to a game that should total double digits in runs. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Thursday
|
06-12-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Phillies -136 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-136 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Merrill Kelley gets the call for the Diamdondbacks here. Although his most recent road start was a good one, that has been the exception rather than the norm this season. For the year, Kelley has a 6.00 ERA in his starts away from home. That spells trouble here as, on the road, Kelley is likely to be outdueled by the Phillies Zach Eflin in this one. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 2.88 ERA on the season. Eflin is 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. He has been the Phillies most consistent starter this season and this is a bargain price to have Eflin and the Phillies at home in this one. Philadelphia is 39-20 (including 15-6 this season) in home games with a money line range of -125 to -175. In home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the Phillies are 9-3 this season. While the Diamondbacks are only 22-21 against right-handed starters this season, Philadelphia is 32-18 against righties this season. The Phillies snapped their losing streak with a win yesterday and will get another one here per our computer math model. Philadelphia has been a very streaky team this season and has very few standalone wins. Look for the home team to build on yesterday's 7-4 win by coming up big with another victory tonight. Bet the Phillies in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-11-19 |
A's v. Rays OVER 9 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-101 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Oakland A's at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
6 of the 8 runs scored in yesterday's game were scored against the bullpens. That game finished just under the total but this one should fly over the total per our computer math model. Plenty of bullpen will again be involved today as Ryne Stanek gets the start for Tampa Bay and he has not completed more than 2 innings in any of his starts this season and this will be his 20th start of the season! The Athletics are starting Mike Fiers in this one and he has a 5.34 ERA in his 5 career starts against the Rays. Fiers has a 6.06 ERA in his road starts this season and has averaged only 5 innings per start in those outings. Stanek averages only about 1 and 1 / 3 inning per appearance and the Rays "bullpen games" have not been as successful of late and they have lost 3 of their last 4 on their home field. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in their last 9 games. Tampa has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of those 9 games. The A's, before being held to just 2 runs yesterday, had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 6 prior games. The over is 7-3 in Fiers last 10 starts. The over is 5-2-1 in Stanek's last 8 starts. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams at Tropicana Field. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday
|
06-10-19 |
Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
5-6 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET
The Cubs Yu Darvish had success against the Rockies last week but that was at home at Wrigley Field. Now the Chicago right-hander faces them on the road at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Prior to his successful start last week versus Colorado, Darvish was 0-3 with a 10.98 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Rockies and that including an ugly outing at Coors Field. The Rockies are a different team when hitting at home and they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Colorado has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games on their home field. The Cubs should also enjoy a big day at the plate here. Chicago pounded German Marquez last week. The Rockies right-hander has a 14.54 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Cubs. That includes last week at Wrigley Field and last season at Coors Field. No matter the venue, Marquez has a match-up issue when facing this tough Cubs lineup. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 starts Marquez has made at home. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 starts Darvish has made. The over is 18-10-1 this season in Cubs road games. Per our computer math model, a back and forth slug-fest is expected at Coors Field in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Monday
|
06-09-19 |
Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game snuck over the total but the under had cashed in 8 straight times in Dodgers games before yesterday's result. Per out computer math model, the under trending in LA games will resume here. Los Angeles starter Walker Buehler has produced 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. In those 4 starts Buehler has allowed 1 earned run or less while going at least 6 innings in all 4 outings. In those 4 starts Buehler walked just 2 batters while striking out 31 in 27 innings of work! The Giants Madison Bumgarner has also been pitching extremely well! He has produced a quality start (6 inning or more, 3 earned runs or less) in 6 of his last 7 starts. The game totals in both Buehler's starts and Bumgarner's starts have trended toward the over but this is a statistical anomaly as both hurlers have been throwing very well. The Giants have a slugging percentage of .326 in home games this season. That ranks them dead last in the majors! The Dodgers certainly are a solid hitting team but they have averaged scoring only 2.6 runs per game in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. When playing against teams with a losing record, Dodgers games have stayed under in 17 of 27 games this season. As a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175, Giants games have stayed under in 21 of 31 games. This one shapes up to be a pitchers duel! Bet the UNDER in the Giants game in afternoon action Sunday
|
06-08-19 |
White Sox -121 v. Royals |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Chicago White Sox over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET
Lucas Giolito is having a huge season for the White Sox with an 8-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. In terms of facing the Royals, his success has been a season after season clinic on domination. Giolito has held the Royals to just 6 hits in 17 and 1 / 3 innings in going undefeated in his 3 starts against KC this season. Against Kansas City the 3 prior seasons combined, he went 3-0 in 6 starts while holding the Royals to a .199 batting average. That makes Giolito 5-0 in 9 career starts versus KC. They Royals are going with Brad Keller in this one. The Kansas City righty has a 5.70 ERA in his last 8 starts. Keller is in rough current form and the White Sox will take advantage. The Royals 12-20 record in home games is one of the worst records in the majors as a host. Chicago is 6-2 this season as a favorite in a range of -125 to -175. The White Sox have lost 3 of their last 4 games but that is a situation in which Chicago is 11-5 this season. Kansas City is 8-23 this season when their money line is +125 to -125. The Royals did notch the win last night but are 5-13 this season when off a victory. Bet the White Sox in early afternoon action Saturday
|
06-07-19 |
A's v. Rangers OVER 10 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Oakland A's Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
The Rangers Lance Lynn has a 5.28 ERA in home starts this season. That number doesn't even include his ugly showing against the A's this season as that start was on the road. In that one at Oakland, Lynn got crushed for 8 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings. Lynn is likely to have his hands full again with the Athletics in this one as Oakland enters this game on a 12-6 run. The A's have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this 18-game stretch. The Rangers are also likely to have a big day at the plate in this one. Texas scored just 4 runs yesterday but they've averaged 10.6 hits in their last 5 games. The Rangers have ranked among the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage and overall production on offense this season. Oakland starter Brett Anderson has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. The A's left-hander continues to deal with a side/rib issue and has had to exit his starts a little early in 2 of his last 3 outings due to the ongoing injury. The Rangers struggled in their most recent game against lefty but their 3 prior games against southpaws resulted in an average of 8.3 runs per game for the Texas lineup. Per our computer math model plenty of runs will be scored on a night in which the wind is forecast to be blowing out toward right-center. Bet the OVER in the Rangers game in evening action Friday
|
06-05-19 |
Phillies -111 v. Padres |
|
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET
The Phillies got a big boost from the newly acquired Jay Bruce last night as he went 3 for 4 with 2 homers including a grand slam! The left handed sticks of Bruce as well as switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez and Bryce Harper (among others whom could be in the lineup here including switch-hitter Andrew Knapp and Adam Haseley) could enjoy a big afternoon at the plate in this one. The Padres are starting Cal Quantrill and the righty has been crushed by lefty sticks. He has been bouncing between the minors and the bigs and, with San Diego, he is allowing opponents to hit .340 against him. Also, in his two day game starts this season Quantrill has a 6.55 ERA. The Phillies got their sticks back on track last night and they hold the pitching edge in this match-up. While the Padres are going with a rookie, Philadelphia has veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound for this one. The right-hander is off a rough start but entered that outing having allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 11 starts. The Padres have lost 6 of their last 9 games. The Phillies are 13-7 in day games this season. San Diego won Quantrill's most recent start but the Padres had gone 0-3 in his first 3 starts. Strong line value here with the road team in a pick'em price range. Look for the Phillies to build off yesterday's big win as their recent losing streak (their first truly bad of stretch of the season) is now in the rear view mirror! Bet the Phillies in late afternoon action Wednesday
|
06-04-19 |
Rockies v. Cubs OVER 10.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Loss |
-116 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Rockies are 11-2 their last 13 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. In terms of consistency, Colorado has scored 4 or more runs in all 13 of those games! Temperatures today in Chicago will be near 80 and the winds will be blowing out toward left-center field at a strong clip. The set up is perfect for plenty of homers in this one. The last time the Cubs Kyle Hendricks faced the Rockies at Wrigley Field he allowed 3 homers in that start! Hendricks is off a strong start but it was in inter-league action. In his last two starts against National League foes he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings. With how hot the Rockies have been as well as the favorable hitting conditions for this one, there should be runs aplenty for the road team in this match-up. Additionally, the Cubs are set up well to match them run for run here. Colorado is starting Jeff Hoffman and he has a 7.20 ERA in his 3 starts this season. In the last two he allowed 3 home runs in a combined 10 innings of work. Chicago exploded for 8 runs in their win over the Angels yesterday at Wrigley Field and another big day at the plate is expected here per our computer math model. The Cubs have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 6 home games. None of those games resulted in an under as the over is 5-0-1 in those 6 games! Rockies games, when Colorado is off a win, are 19-10-1 to the over this season. The Cubs streak of overs in home games resumes on Tuesday night. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in evening action Tuesday
|
06-02-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-111 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET
The Cubs were on the wrong end of a 7-4 final yesterday. That over moved Chicago's O/U mark to 10-4 this season on the road when the total is set at 9 to 9.5 runs. Another 9 has been set on this game by the odds makers and, per our computer math model. another game reaching double digits in total runs is likely today. The Cubs are starting Cole Hamels. The southpaw is enduring a horrific stretch. Hamels has a 7.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and has given up 23 hits plus walked 9 for a total of 32 base runners in only 13 innings over his last 3 outings. On the season, 8 of Hamels 11 starts (including 5 of 6 on the road) have resulted in an over. Adam Wainwright gets the call for the Cardinals here and he is off a 10-strikeout game against the Phillies in his start earlier this week.. However, Wainwright did allow 4 earned runs on 8 hits in that 6-inning outing and he has a 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts. Wainwright has an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts against the Cubs. Behind Chicago starter Hamels is a Cubs bullpen that has squandered half of their 22 save opportunities this season. 10 of the Cubs 13 games since May 19th have yielded an over result and this one has all the right ingredients for another high-scoring game at Busch Stadium. Bet the OVER in the Cardinals game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
06-01-19 |
Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 11 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET
With yesterday's 13-6 win, the red hot Rockies have won 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11. The Colorado lineup has led the way. The Rockies have averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is 7-3 in those contests. Blue Jays games are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 games. The Toronto pitching staff has allowed 12.4 hits per game in their last 11 games. Though Marcus Stroman, the starting pitcher Saturday, has great numbers on the season he will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. This is a very unfriendly park for pitchers as they quickly realize their pitches don't have the same movement in the thin air of Denver. Of course the ball also carries much better at Coors Field. In inter-league action, the Blue Jays are 31-16-1 to the over in recent seasons including 6-2 to the over this season. The Rockies are 7-3 to the over this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Colorado is 19-8-1 to the over this season when off a victory in their prior game. Toronto's Stroman has allowed 13 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 road starts and now he makes a road start at a venue that is very tough on pitchers. Jon Gray gets the start for the Rockies here and he is off a respectable start, though it lasted only 5 innings, versus Arizona. Prior to that outing, Gray allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings for a 6.75 ERA. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in late evening action Saturday
|
05-31-19 |
Nationals -125 v. Reds |
|
3-9 |
Loss |
-125 |
25 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Washington Nationals over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Nationals biggest weakness is their bullpen but that pen is unlikely to be needed much in this one because Patrick Corbin is on the mound. The lefty has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts. In fact, in those 3 starts he has averaged 8 innings per outing! With that being said, we like the Nationals a lot in this spot at a favorable short money line price on the road. Washington was off on Thursday after a 14-4 win Wednesday. That easy victory brings the Nationals record to 5-1 in their last 6 games and they have scored an average of 9 runs per game in those 5 victories! Unlike the red hot Nationals, the Reds have been very up and down recently. With their 7-2 loss to the Pirates Wednesday, Cincinnati's recent run of .500 ball continues as they are 6-6 in their last 12 games. Cincinnati starter Tyler Mahle has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 8 starts. The way the Nationals are hitting it is likely to be another rough night for him here. The Reds are 1-7 in Mahle's last 8 starts. Bet the Nationals in early evening action Friday
|
05-30-19 |
Twins v. Rays OVER 8 |
|
3-14 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
Per our computer math model, the Rays are projected to enjoy plenty of success against the Twins Martin Perez. The Minnesota lefty has enjoyed surprising early season success but he allowed 6 hits and walked 4 in just 5 innings in his start last week. Perez was very fortunate to escape major damage in that outing. He won't be so fortunate here and that was the 2nd straight start in which Perez has walked 4 batters. Also, in his most recent start at Tampa Bay, the southpaw allowed 2 homers. There are batters in each of these lineups that have experience against the starting pitcher they are facing today. In his last start against the Rays, Perez allowed 7 earned runs. In Charlie Morton's most recent start against the Twins he allowed 4 earned runs and lasted only 5 innings. The Rays Morton has pitched well this season but he has allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits and 6 walks in 11 innings over his last two home starts. Also, the Tampa Bay right-hander is facing a Minnesota lineup that has scored a ridiculous average of 8 runs per game in their last 14 games. Of course that is a big reason the Twins enter this game on a 12-2 run and with plenty of confidence at the plate. The Rays have won 7 of their last 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. As a result of Morton and Perez both having low ERAs on the season, this total is only 8 runs. This offers big value here as double digits in runs are in the forecast for this one! The over is 17-9-2 in Twins road games this season. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over in Thursday games and 6-3 to the over this season when playing after a day off. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Thursday
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05-29-19 |
Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
14-9 |
Win
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101 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET
The Red Sox are starting Ryan Weber in this one. The 28 year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors. This is not a good match-up for him. Weber has shown that he struggles more against left-handed batters than right-handed sticks. He will see almost every single batter stepping in on the left-hand side in this one as the Indians are loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. Weber is 2-5 with a 4.41 ERA in his 9 career starts at the MLB level. Cleveland erupted for 7 runs in yesterday's win and has already scored a dozen runs in the first two games of this series at Fenway Park. The Indians are starting Shane Bieber here and he has received a lot of fanfare with striking out 25 batters in his last two starts. However, both of those outings were at home and he also threw 111 pitches just to get through 5 innings in his most recent start. The last time Bieber pitched on the road he allowed 4 homers at Chicago against the White Sox. Now he faces a Red Sox team whose team batting average in home games ranks 2nd in the American League. Boston is known for being tough on opposing pitchers at Fenway Park and they also got to the Indians bullpen yesterday. This total is only a 9 (after opening at a 9.5) and that has made this an even better value play. The total is low because of Bieber's last two starts but Boston is likely to give him trouble here. As for Weber he truly is unproven at the MLB level as a starter and the Indians lineup presents a tough match-up with all the left-handed lumber. Last year at the AAA level in the minors Weber was hit at a .264 clip and this season in 5 starts at the AAA level opponents are hitting .271 against him. He had a good first start this season (last week) but it was against a bad Blue Jays team. The Indians have struggled at times at the plate this season but they have looked strong in this series and hold the match-up edges over Weber in this one. Rather cool evening at Fenway expected here but this total is far too low and our computer math model is calling for this one to fall within a range of 10 to 12 runs before all is said and done. The teams have already averaged 14.5 run per game in the first two games of this series. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Wednesday
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05-28-19 |
Brewers v. Twins OVER 9.5 |
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3-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON OVER: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
Zach Davies gets the start for Milwaukee Tuesday and he has a low ERA on the season but a big total was set on this game by the odds-makers with plenty of good reasoning behind it. The Brewers righty gave up 6 earned runs and only lasted 3 innings in his most recent start. He has now allowed 3 homers in 9 innings over his last two starts. The Twins blew a 4-0 lead and lost 5-4 yesterday but this is still one of the hottest lineups in the league. Minnesota, including Monday's loss, is 11-2 their last 13 games and the Twins have scored an average of 8.4 runs per game during this 13-game stretch! The Brewers also possess a very potent lineup. Milwaukee's .438 slugging percentage ranks them in the top five of the National League. Per our computer math model, the Brewers are projected to enjoy plenty of success against the Twins Devin Smeltzer. The Minnesota lefty is a 23-year old rookie and will be making his MLB debut here. The fact is his minor league numbers were very underwhelming coming into this season. Now, in 2019, Smeltzer is suddenly enjoying some success at the minor league level but he has only pitched in 4 games at the AAA level. He started this season in AA ball. Since moving up to AAA ball, in about the same number of innings worked, he has more than twice as many walks and less than half as many strikeouts. That is certainly a sign about how he may fare at higher levels and now he jumps another level up to the MLB level! We don't expect this to go well at all for him against a potent Brewers lineup. Milwaukee should score plenty here and Minnesota is likely to match them run for run! In Davies only career start against the Twins he allowed 6 earned runs and lasted only 5 and 2 / 3 innings. The over in Minnesota's Tuesday games improves to 7-2 (78%) on the season with double digits in runs in the forecast for this one! Bet the OVER in the Twins game in evening action Tuesday
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05-27-19 |
Angels v. A's OVER 9 |
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5-8 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A's, Monday at 4:05 PM ET
The red hot Athletics have won 9 straight games. Oakland has scored an average of 7.2 runs per game during this red hot run! The A's should have no trouble with the offerings of Trevor Cahill. The Angels right-hander got crushed in his most recent road start and has a 6.98 ERA away from home this season. Cahill has allowed 9 homers in his 6 road starts and the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland Coliseum. He allowed 2 homers in 6 innings in his most recent start here which was back in March. The A's will have Chris Bassitt on the mound and the Angels have given him trouble as Bassitt has a 9.39 ERA in his two career starts versus LA. Bassitt enters this start off a rough outing at Cleveland as he struggled with command and with giving up the long ball! The A's right-hander hit a batter plus walked 6 batters and allowed a pair of homers and this all occurred in an outing in which he couldn't make it out of the 4th inning. The Angels averaged 15 hits per game in their most recent series away from home. Los Angeles enters this series having scored an average of 5 runs per game in its last 4 games. The over is 2-0 in Bassitt's two career starts against the Angels. LA is 6-0-1 to the over in Cahill's last 7 starts - not a single under in his last 7 outings. Per our computer math model this one gets to double digits in runs with a dozen or more runs a distinct possibility. Bet the OVER in the A's game in afternoon action Monday
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05-26-19 |
Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-112 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON OVER: Atlanta Braves at St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
It is quite evident where the sharp money is going on this total. This O/U was set at an 8.5 opener but is now a 9 across the board. This is despite the fact that the Braves Julio Teheran has a 0.79 ERA in his last 4 starts and the Cardinals Jack Flaherty has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts. One of the reasons to expect those prior numbers to prove to be a statistical anomaly Sunday is that these lineups just faced these starting pitchers within the past two weeks. Teheran enjoyed success in that outing but that was in Atlanta where he has been stronger than on the road this season. Teheran's recent starts away from home have been better but he faced a lot of weak lineups. The Cardinals are a strong team when at home, and Teheran compiled a 7.40 ERA in his first 4 road starts this season! St Louis starter Flaherty has been continually struggling with his command. The Braves are one of the top teams in the majors in terms of drawing walks and their patience at the plate will frustrate Flaherty. The Cardinals right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his two career starts against Atlanta. The Braves have scored 5.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. St Louis has scored 5.2 runs per game in their last 11 games. Per our computer math model this one is going to get to at least double digits in runs and has a great chance at getting to a dozen runs or more. Both bullpens have had struggles to close out save opportunities this season and, overall, Atlanta's bullpen has ranked in the lower third of the league for bullpen ERA this season. The over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 games between these clubs and all signs point to that high-scoring trend continuing here. Bet the OVER in the Cardinals game in evening action Sunday
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05-25-19 |
Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON OVER: Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
When one looks at the starting pitchers in this match-up one could be tempted to play the under. Of course there is much more than starting pitching that needs to be taken into consideration when handicapping MLB totals. The Marlins (5.30 ERA) and the Nationals (7.09 ERA) are the two worst bullpens in the National League! Washington is so bad in fact that they rank dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA! These teams combined for 22 runs yesterday. Suffice to say there is plenty of confidence at the plate for each of these lineups heading into this Saturday afternoon match-up. The Marlins have averaged 5.6 runs their last 7 games and had won 6 in a row prior to yesterday's loss. This is not the same downtrodden Miami team that was showing no life earlier this season but the markets have been slow to adjust to that fact and we can take advantage here. Per our computer math model, this game will reach double digits in runs scored. The Nationals have gone over the total in 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9! Washington has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game their last 10 games and has scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 10. The Marlins have scored 5 or more runs in 4 straight games. Keep in mind getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us a win as the game would have to end at least 5-4. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is off a great start but that was at home. On the road this season Alcantara has a 4.58 ERA and it easily could be much worse as he has a 1.88 WHIP away from home this year! The Nationals Patrick Corbin has a 4.62 ERA in his 6 career starts against the Marlins. He has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts against the Marlins and also enters this outing having allowed 2 homers in his most recent start last week. Washington is 7-3-1 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs and also is 10-5-1 in games against teams with a losing record this season. Bet the OVER in the Nationals game in late afternoon action Saturday
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