Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 210 Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics, 6:30 PM ET - If you have followed our handicapping expertise for any length of time you know how much we like value in lines and bet numbers not teams. That is clearly the case in tonight’s game between the Raptors and Celtics. Game 1 of this series had a Total set by the oddsmakers of 217.5 which means the line has dropped a full 7.5 points over the course of five games. Granted all five have stayed below the Total but now that the number is this low, we must play Over. Average NBA games this season finished with roughly 223 points per game and Playoff games are around 220PPG. Our math model projects 218 Total points between these two teams which is what the Total was in Games 1 and 2. The Raptors are the 2nd fastest playoff team left behind only the Lakers in possessions per game and Boston is playing faster in this round than they did in the first. Both teams will get to 105 or better in this one and the game goes Over the Total. |
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09-08-20 | Heat -3 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 219 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET VALUE! This line is significantly lower than the Total in Game 2 of 224 and we prefer to put ourselves on the side of Vegas than the Public. In Game 1 the Clippers put up 120 points and took advantage of a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that is on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and shot 57% as a result. In Game 2 though the Clippers could not buy a bucket as they hit just 41% of their field goal attempts and 28% from beyond the 3-point line. Kawhi Leonard really struggled from the floor going 4 of 17, scoring just 13-points. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that. In Game 2 the Nuggets put up 110 total points and hit 45% from the field. Denver hoisted forty 3-pointers and hit 38% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. At halftime of Game 2 these two teams combined for 128 Total points and were on pace to total 256 before two horrible shooting quarters in the 3rd and 4th. With the added value and dip in the number we will be OVER here. |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 221.5 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET We feel the Clippers have identified a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that’s on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and look for Kawhi and company to continue to attack the Nuggets vulnerable defense. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that and we expect a much better showing in Game 2. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. In the last two regular season meetings between these two teams they combined for 235 points in each game. Denver will score more than 100 in Game 2 and The Clippers are getting to 120+ so this game goes Over rather easily. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win. |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble. |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2. |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216.5 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 5:30PM ET These two rivals met in the Bubble prior to the Playoffs and Vegas set a Total of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 2. Game 1 stayed below the number yet the oddsmakers opened this number slightly higher than the opening Total for Game 1. There were a few anomalies in the opener and most glaring was the Raptors poor shooting. Toronto hit just 37% of their FG attempts and 25% (10 of 40) from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than the Raps season averages of 45.8% (FG%) and 37.5% which was the 5th best 3-Point percentage in the NBA. Toronto was 14th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.112 points per possession. In Game 1 against Boston the Raptors averaged .880 points per possession which is INSANELY low. To put that in perspective the .880PPP would be last in the NBA this season by a wide margin as Golden State was last at 1.052PPP. Boston OEFF in Game 1 was also slightly lower than their season average so expect an improvement in Game 2. It is no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. In the Bubble games the Raptors average offensive possession was just 13.7 seconds which was 6th fastest in the restart. Boston’s average offensive possession was 14.1 seconds which was 13th. The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the better in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. |
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08-31-20 | Rockets -5 v. Thunder | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome. |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 1PM ET Sunday The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. These two rivals met in the Bubble w/Total set by Vegas of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 1. Not to mention, the Bubble game finished with 222 total points which gets us the cash here. In the last eight meetings these two teams have combined for 216 or more points five times, AND the other three games stayed below 216 total points by the sum of 9-points. It’s no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. Neither of these two teams were fast in terms of pace of play during the regular season but in the Bubble games they both averaged about 3 more possessions per game, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but is. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. This game gets into the 228 range rather easily. |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise. |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again. |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points! |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Under 226 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic, 1PM ET The Magic have done a great job controlling the tempo or pace in the first two games as it is their only option to win games against the Bucks. In the two games the combined field goal attempts for both teams is 179 and 178 which is barely above league average of 177. Let us not forget the Bucks are the fastest paced team in the league at 105.1 possessions per game while the Magic are 25th at 98.6. In this series the Magic came out in Game 1 and filled it up with 122 points on 49% shooting from the field overall, 39% from 3-point range and 95% from the stripe. In Game #2 the Bucks top rated defensive efficiency stepped up and limited the Magic to just 35% shooting from the field and 21% from beyond the arc. That was more inline with the Magic’s season stats as they were 27th in the league in team FG% at 44.3% and 23rd in offensive efficiency. In other words, the Magic will struggle to score again here and do their best to slow the tempo. Milwaukee broke out a little in Game 2 but one of the stories of all the Bubble games has been the struggles of the Bucks offense. Milwaukee was 8th best in the league in offensive efficiency this season but drop to 13th of 22 teams that played in the restart. Orlando is a top 10 defensive efficiency unit and match up well with Milwaukee. These two teams have met six times this season and only one (Game 1 when Orlando shot ridiculously well) has ended with more than 226 total points. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here. |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: Over 217 Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets, Weds 4PM ET Game 1 between these two teams could not have been much better as had everything a basketball fan wants in a contest. Denver won by 10-points, but it took overtime and was very close throughout. Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell had a monster game with 57-points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists but it wasn’t enough to offset the 36/5/9 put up by Jamal Murray and the 29/10/3 by Jokic for Denver. Of course, for our wager here the overtime period should not be factored into our thinking and influence our Over bet. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 220 total points in regulation which is enough to cash our ticket in Game 2. Since the restart, games involving the Jazz have averaged 230 total points while the Nugget games have averaged 242-points (2 OT games have this numbers slightly inflated). In the regular season these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league, but they made up for it by being highly efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. Denver is 5th in the NBA this year in OEFF at 1.131 points per possession while Utah is 10th at 1.124PPP. Both teams shot well in Game 1 but that has been the norm in the Bubble with great sight lines and backdrops for shooters. This number is set below league average and value lies with the Over bet. |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 230 | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 230 Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers, Monday Aug 17th 9PM ET - We are extremely excited about this bet and expect an easy win by about the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. We mentioned this a few bets ago that scoring is up in the Bubble restart compared to the regular season prior to March 11th. The smaller confines offer a “shooters background” and scoring has gone up from 223 total points per game to 230PPG. In other words, we are asking for an average scoring output from these two teams in this setting when we have the 5th (Clippers) and 6th (Mavs) ranked offensive efficiency units in Bubble play squaring off. The Clippers have averaged 118PPG in the Bubble while the Mavs have averaged 123PPG. Granted, the Clippers have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers in the restart but the Mavs have the 20th out of 22 teams. The Mavs are averaging more possessions per game in the Bubble and the Clippers are 8th in the league in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game on the season. The Mavs have allowed 126 or more points in 6 of their eight Bubble games and are clearly not known for their defense. These two teams met in the restart and combined for 237 total points which will be on the lower end of today’s scoring. BET OVER! |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 233 | Top | 122-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 233 Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers, Saturday 2:30PM ET These same two teams met in the first game of the Bubble action and Vegas set a Total on that contest of 224 and now has a number that is 8.5-points more? That is an over-reaction to the Blazers scoring of late and offers us some tremendous value with an Under bet here. Portland expended a ton of energy to get to the 8th seed in the West and we cannot help but wonder how much they have emotionally and physically for this game. The Blazers defense has been horrendous in the Bubble games, but they have also faced 6 offenses that rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. Four of the teams they faced are top 9 in the NBA in points per game scoring, so it is understandable their defense wasn’t great in the restart. Memphis has played solid defense in the Bubble allowing just 1.088 points per possession which is 6th best in the restart games. But the Grizzlies have struggled to score in the Bubble with the 17th worst (out of 22) offensive efficiency numbers. Memphis failed to reach 100-points in two games in the restart and scored 107 or less in half of their Bubble games. We can’t ignore the value in this Over/Under and will have to bet UNDER! |
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08-14-20 | 76ers v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 134-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 230.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, 9PM ET These two teams are locked into their playoff position and will rest all their key players here to stay healthy for a deep post-season run. The 76ers will face the Celtics in the opening round next week while the Rockets get the OKC Thunder. In this meaningless game we don’t expect to see the starters for either team which means the scoring has to come from the reserves. Houston averages 118PP on the season but will be without Russell Westbrook here (injured) and his 27.2PPG and 7 assists per game. We would be shocked to see Harden here and his 34PPG so where will the Rockets scoring come from. Houston’s bench is the 28th lowest scoring unit in the NBA this season, ahead of only Boston and Portland. The Rockets scoring is down in the Bubble as their average points per possession has dipped from 1.132PPP to 1.081PPP. Houston has scored 105 or less points in 3 of their last five games and their scoring average would be lower yet in the Bubble if it were not for a 153-scoring overtime output in the restart opener. Houston defense has been better though as they have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in Bubble games which is up from 11th during the regular season. Philly is in the same boat here as the Rockets with Ben Simmons out for the playoffs and Embiid beat up so why jeopardize having him on the floor tonight. The 76ers lack production from their bench with the 26th lowest scoring unit in the NBA. The Sixers defense gave up over 124PPG in five of their seven Bubble games but three of those contests came against 3 of the four highest scoring teams in the Bubble. Teams have been scoring more in the Bubble than during the regular season, but we can’t see these two benches putting up 230 or more combined points. BET UNDER! |
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08-13-20 | Mavs v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances. |
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08-12-20 | Pacers v. Rockets -8 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here. |
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08-11-20 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 233.5 Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2PM ET We like the Under in this day game between these two Texas rivals. Both have incentive to play here with the Rockets jockeying for seeding position and the Spurs fighting for a chance to get into the post-season for the 23rd straight year. In the Bubble games the Rockets defense has been much better than the regular season version as they have allowed just 1.076 points per possession in their five Bubble games compared to 1.100PPP they give up on the season. On the year the Rockets have been average in effective field goal percentage defense but in their last three games they are allowing just 49% EFG% shooting which is second best in the NBA over that 3-game span. The Rockets have given up 110, 97 and 112 points in their last three games. We do not see the Rockets putting up huge offensive numbers here without James Harden or Daniel House Jr. in the lineup. San Antonio is fighting for the 8th or 9th seed in the West and are essentially in a must win situation. That is a lot of pressure for a young team without their best offensive player LaMarcus Aldridge who did not come to the Bubble. San Antonio has some inflated scoring and defensive numbers in the Bubble with a pair of exceedingly high scoring games against Denver and Philly which has skewed this number higher than it should be. These two teams met twice in December and produced 216 and 268 total points. The 268-point game was an OT thriller and the two teams produced 38-points so in reality that game would have finished with less total points than today’s Total set by Vegas. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and we predict another Under here. |
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08-10-20 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here. |
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here. |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright. |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -3 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here. |
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08-06-20 | Clippers -4 v. Mavs | Top | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers. |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 223 | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 223 Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 8PM ET The Magic are playing without rest today so fatigue could certainly be an issue on the offensive end of the floor against a great defensive team like the Raptors. Orlando got off to a great start in the Bubble by producing 128 and 132 points in wins over the Nets and Kings and shot over 52% in those two games. Then yesterday they faced a Pacers team that plays defense (6th in defensive efficiency) and struggled to score 109 points. Today the Magic face a Raptors team that is 2nd in the NBA in D.E.F.F. allowing just 1.050 points per possession. In two games in the Bubble the Raptors have given up just 92-points and 103-points to the Heat and Lakers who are both better statistically than the Magic offensively. Orlando is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and will provide a stiff challenge for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Neither team likes to play fast as Toronto is barely above league average in pace of play while the Magic are well below average, ranking 26th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. Toronto has a bigger game on deck against the Celtics and may not be as engaged versus the Magic tonight. In the 3 meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 199, 210 and 173 total points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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08-04-20 | Magic -111 v. Pacers | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: Orlando Magic (-) over Indiana Pacers, 6PM ET The Magic were exceptionally good to us the other night in their blowout win over Sacramento and we will come right back with a bet on them again here. The Magic were up 35 after 3-quarters against the Kings and were able to play the entire bench most of the 4th quarter. A rested Magic team catch a Pacers team off a game yesterday and playing their 3rd in four days. Indiana had all five starters log over 33 minutes Monday and have not been a good team without rest this year at 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU record. Going back further we find the Pacers are 23-30 SU when playing the second night of a back-to-back with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. The Pacers have beaten the Magic twice already this season but that was back in November and Orlando is playing much better now. The Magic have won five in a row and covered 9 of their last ten games dating back to the pre-Covid break and have shot over 52% in both games in the Bubble. These two teams are similar in several key statistical categories, but the Magic have elevated their game to another level in the re-start. Bet Orlando. |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win. |
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08-02-20 | Kings v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up. |
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08-01-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. |
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07-31-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 135-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. |
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07-30-20 | Jazz +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here. |
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy! |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster. |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night! |
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03-05-20 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 220 | Top | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET This line has been bet down by 3-points already and we were waiting/hoping it would go back up before betting it, but it has leveled off at the current number so we’re playing now. These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now with the Kings winning 6 of their last seven while the 76ers have lost 3 of four. The Kings are doing it with a defense that has been substantially better in 5 of their last six game allowing 103, 94, 112, 101 and 100 points in those contests. They did allow 126 to Washington but the Wizards are one of the fastest paced and highest scoring teams in the NBA. On the season the Kings allow 1.111 points per possession but in their last five contests they are giving up just 1.076PPP which ranks them 8th in the NBA. Sacramento is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA ranking 26th in pace of play or 98.4 possessions per game. Offensively the Kings rank 20th on the season in offensive efficiency, and even though they’ve played better of late, they still rank 14th (slightly above average) in their last five games when it comes to OEFF. Philly is also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.9 possessions per game and without Ben Simmons pushing the ball for them they have slowed to 96.2 possessions per game. The 76ers have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the season and their current numbers are skewed drastically worse from playing both Los Angeles teams. Granted, it was a long time ago and the dynamics for both teams have changed significantly but when these two teams met in November they combined for just 188 total points. Our math models are projecting 214.5 total points in this contest. |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright. |
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03-02-20 | Jazz v. Cavs +10 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them. |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points |
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02-28-20 | Kings v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston. |
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02-26-20 | Mavs v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points! |
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02-25-20 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER! |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -8 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points. |
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02-21-20 | Suns v. Raptors OVER 229 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 229 Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET Fresh players after the All-Star break led to a 5-1 Over trend last night in the NBA for teams playing their first game after the break. Tonight, the Suns and Raptors meet, and the situation warrants an Over wager on their game. These teams rank 12th and 13th in scoring this season with both averaging over 112PPG. The Raptors are 13th in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 17th. The Suns prefer to play fast with the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, the Raptors are also in the top half of the league with the 13th fastest tempo. The Suns defense has allowed 116 or more points in half of their last ten games and Toronto has scored 115 plus in 7 of their last ten. The Raptors last game before the break was a horrible offensive showing as they managed just 91-points in a loss to the Nets so expect a focused effort here. In their last five games these teams are both shooting over an average of 48% which is well above league average of 45.9%. Let’s not forget the league average total points scored per game is 223PPG so asking two of the higher scoring, faster paced teams to scored 229 or more shouldn’t be a problem. |
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02-20-20 | Heat -6 v. Hawks | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points. |
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02-13-20 | Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 227 | Top | 133-141 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* play UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics 8PM ET At the very root of the numbers today are two season averages that don’t add up to this Total set by Vegas on this game. The Clippers and opponents have averaged 225PPG this season while the Celtics and their foes have averaged 218PPG. The Clippers are 6th in pace of play at home but do play slower when on the road. The Celtics are 19th in the league in pace of play and prefer a slower tempo when at home. What we can count on for sure here is defensive intensity from both teams as the Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Clippers rank 6th and both allow less than 110PPG. Consider this, the Celtics just played the 2nd fastest pace and 2nd highest scoring team in the league in Houston and the O/U was only 5-points higher than this number and the teams combined for 221 total points. The Clippers just faced the 76ers who are similar to the Celtics in style of play and that game finished with 213 total points. When these same two teams met earlier this season the Total set on the game was 217 and they combined for just 211 in OT. We don’t see this game topping 220 total points. Bet UNDER! |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it! |
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02-10-20 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points! |
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02-07-20 | Raptors v. Pacers +1 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight. |
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02-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points! |
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02-04-20 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 226 | Top | 99-127 | Push | 0 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET We are value players and have made a living betting bad numbers which is the case tonight with this Over/Under. The line opened 5-full points less than it is right now and the volume of money being wagered on the game should not have dictated this big of a move. These same two teams have met twice already this season and Vegas had posted O/U’s of 216 and 218 on their games. I’ll trust the experts and bet Under in this game. Yes, we know Damian Lillard is on a ‘heater’ averaging nearly 49PPG his last six contests, but he can’t sustain that type of production and the Nuggets will be focused on stopping him tonight. Denver has the 11th best defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.067 points per possession. The Nuggets have allowed 104 or less points in 3 of their last five home games and on the season the Nuggets home games have averaged 212 total points per game. Denver is the 29th slowest paced team in the NBA overall and at home and they’ll dictate the tempo in this big Western Conference showdown. Portland games at home this season have averaged 232 total points but on the road, they’ve averaged 224.5PPG. The Blazers are a below average shooting team on the road but slightly better than average in opponents FG% when away from home. In the last five meetings between these two teams they’ve totaled: 213, 208, 196, 227 and 222 total points. Bet contrarian here and bet UNDER! |
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02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home. |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one. |
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01-31-20 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 222 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA play on: Over 222.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET A few days ago, we successfully played Under in the Thunder versus Kings game but will flip here and bet Over when the Thunder take on the Suns. OKC is scoring more points on the road right now than they do at home with scoring outputs of 120, 113, 120, 112 and 117 in their last five away from home. OKC has been a slower paced team on the season (22nd) but have played faster in their last five games at 99 possessions per game which is 14th fastest in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are already top 10 in pace of play at 101.9 possessions per game so they’ll push tempo in this one and look to get out and run. The Thunder are slightly better than average in points per possession while the Suns are middle of the pack. Both are near average in terms of defensive efficiency also. The average NBA total points scored is 221 and the current statistics or how these teams are playing right now suggest 227 total points in this contest. OKC is shooting over 51% their last five games while the Suns have allowed opponents to hit o over 48% of their FG attempts. These same two teams met in mid-December and the posted number was 224.5 and they combined for 234 total points. We like the value and will play OVER here. |
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01-30-20 | 76ers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one. |
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01-29-20 | Thunder v. Kings UNDER 221 | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET There is tremendous value with this Under tonight for a few different reasons. First off, these same two teams met in early December and the posted Total on that game was 207.5 which is obviously much lower than tonight’s number. In that game, OKC and SAC combined for just 187 total points. Vegas has posted a Total north of 220 this game which right around the league average for the Total points scored in an NBA game. The math for these two teams doesn’t add up to 220 either. Both prefer to play slower as the Thunder are 22nd in the league in pace of play, while the Kings are 27th. Both are average in terms of offensive efficiency with OKC having the 15th overall rankings while the Kings are 21st. Now we factor in the defensive efficiency numbers and OKC is 14th and the Kings 19th. To sum it up these are two average offenses and defenses yet play at a very slow pace, so we don’t expect an ‘average’ NBA game with 220 total points. On the season the Thunder games have average 218 total points, the Kings are at 217PPG. Sacramento’s scoring numbers are way up their last five games but two of those have been over-time affairs. The Thunder have had a few higher scoring games recently, but they also played three of the seven fastest paced teams in the league. This game just doesn’t add up to 220+ so we’re betting UNDER! |
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01-28-20 | Suns +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 133-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET
This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points! |
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01-27-20 | Magic v. Heat -6 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win. |
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01-26-20 | Clippers v. Magic UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: UNDER 217 LA Clippers @ Orlando Magic, 6PM ET These same two teams met recently in Los Angeles and combined for exactly 217 total points, but we don’t feel today’s game gets to that number. In the most recent meeting, the Magic who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA gave up 122 to the Clippers but they were also coming off a big game against the Lakers the night before. Orlando is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.064 points per possession. The team right below the Magic in DEFF ratings is the LA Clippers who give up just 1.068PPP. LA plays a little faster in terms of tempo ranking 8th but the home team Magic are the 27th slowest paced team in the league at just 98.1 possessions per game. Orlando has really struggled scoring of late by failing to reach 100 points in 3 of their last five games and scoring 106 or less in 4 of five. The Magic are 29th in the NBA in scoring at just 103.8PPG and will have a tough time against this Clippers defense. With Los Angeles off a higher scoring game against the Heat we expect a low scoring contest today. BET UNDER! |
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01-24-20 | Celtics v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10. |
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01-22-20 | Pacers -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row. |
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01-21-20 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight. |
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01-20-20 | Kings +6 v. Heat | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET *Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season. |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same. |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs -8 | Top | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points. |
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01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 225 | Top | 132-138 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: 10* OVER 225 Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET This marks the 3rd meeting of the season for these two clubs and the first two soared Over the posted totals with 248 and 254 total points being scored in the two games. Those two contests saw 184 and 183 combined field goals attempted which are both higher than league average per game. The Pelicans are 5th in the NBA in pace of play and will look to push the tempo. Utah is 20th in pace but make up for it with the 11th ranked offensive efficiency unit averaging 1.108 points per possession. The Jazz average 109.7PPG on the season but during their current 10-game winning streak they are scoring a hair under 117PPG. New Orleans has also seen an uptick in scoring of late as they are scoring +5 more points per game in their last five games compared to their season average. The Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday tonight who is one of the teams leading scorers but he’s also one of the leagues best perimeter defenders which makes stopping the Jazz’s Donovan Mitchel (24PPG) that much tougher. The Over is on a 7-3 run in this series and win #8 is on hand this evening. |
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01-15-20 | Magic +11 v. Lakers | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game. |
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01-13-20 | Magic v. Kings UNDER 212.5 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: 10* UNDER 212 Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET This match up features the 3rd (Kings) and 4th (Magic) slowed paced teams in the NBA as both average 98 or less possessions per game. Both teams also have some great defensive characteristics which also favors the Under in this game. Orlando allows the least amount of points per game in the NBA at 103.3 while Sacramento gives up 109PPG which is 13th best. Clearly the energy spent on the defensive end of the court affects their offensive numbers which are dreadful. Orlando ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 103.5PPG and are 26th in offensive efficiency rankings. Sacramento isn’t a whole lot better with the 24th scoring offense in the league at 106.2PPG and the 21st OEFF rankings. The Magic have held 8 of their last ten opponents to 101 or less points. The Kings defense has been especially good against other teams in the league with similar offensive numbers as Orlando’s. The last four times these two teams have met the Under has cashed all four times and 7 of the last eight. Bet the value here…BET UNDER! |
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01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte. |
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright! |
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01-07-20 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET The number on this game has been bet up by more than 4-points and we’ll put ourselves on the oddsmakers side here and play UNDER the total. Both teams have injury concerns and will be missing key contributors this evening. In their last five games the Pistons have played well defensively except for a pair of games against San Antonio and the Clippers where they gave up 132 and 126 points. But the Spurs are the 9th most efficient offense in the NBA while the Clippers are 4th. The Cavaliers offense isn’t anywhere close to that as they rank 27th out of 30 teams a 1.052 points per possession. Recently the Cavs gave up 121 to OKC who is 9th in OEFF their last five games and playing well on the offensive end of the floor. In another game the Cavs gave up 118 to Minnesota but the Wolves play fast ranking 8th in pace of play. Tempo won’t be a concern here as these teams rank 19th (Pistons) and 23rd (Cavs) in pace of play or possessions per game. Both teams field goal attempts are trending down their last five games compared to their season averages which means less scoring opportunities for both. On December 3rd when these two teams last met the Pistons put up 127 points on 54% shooting but had Blake Griffin and Morris in the lineup (both out tonight) who combined for 36-points. Our calculation project just 213 total points being scored here. BET UNDER! |
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01-06-20 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 215 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 215 Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET Our baseline for NBA average total points scored per game is around 220. The Total set on this game is a few baskets lower than a league average game. Our analytics say this game won’t get to 215 total points with the slowest paced team (Kings) in the NBA involved. The Warriors are average or 15th in the league in pace at 99.8 possessions per game. In their last five games the Warriors have played slower yet with 98 possessions per game. These two teams are bad when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Warriors ranking 28th and Sacramento 21st. Golden State is the worst EFG% shooting team in the NBA at 48.7% while the Kings rank 19th at 52%. These same two teams squared off in mid-December and combined for just 179 points and that was with the Kings shooting a remarkable 60% from the field. The Warriors had Draymond Green and D-Russell for that game (both out tonight) and still only managed 79-points. The Under has cashed 8 of the last 11 on this floor between these two teams and another low scoring affair is on hand tonight. |
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01-02-20 | Jazz -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers. We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one. |
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12-29-19 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 229 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET – If you followed our NBA pick yesterday, we had the Pelicans over the Pacers which worked out well with New Orleans winning 120-98. The Pelicans have won four of their last five with impressive wins over Indiana, Denver, Portland and Minnesota. The reason they’ve been successful is their defense has stepped up dramatically in their last five games. On the season the Pels allow an average of 117PPG and 1.121 points per possession but in their last five games they are giving up just 99.4PPG (1st in NBA) and .994 points per possession (2nd). On the offensive end of the floor the Pelicans have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last six games and rank 19th in overall offensive efficiency. Houston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league but recently their offense has stalled with 113 or less points in three straight games. The Rockets and their opponents have totaled less than 229 points in 5 of their last six games so they’ve struggled offensively and been better defensively. Pelicans are on a 4-0 Under streak as a dog, Houston on an Under run of 5-1 when tabbed a favorite. The play here is UNDER. |
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12-28-19 | Pacers v. Pelicans +1 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one! |
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12-26-19 | Grizzlies +6 v. Thunder | Top | 110-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight. |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight. |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs -8 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points. |
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12-13-19 | Bucks v. Grizzlies OVER 227.5 | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Bucks continue to roll through the NBA, and they weren’t slowed the other night playing without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, beating the Pelicans 127-112. Milwaukee has the deepest bench in the NBA and a plethora of players capable of stepping up to make shots and score double-digits. The Bucks are 1st in scoring at 120.8PPG, 2nd in team FG%, 14th in 3PT% and 1st in rebounding. Most importantly here, they are the fastest paced team in the NBA overall at 105.2 possessions per game and the fastest when playing on the road. That great for our wager here as we know one thing for certain, this will be an up-and-down affair with Memphis. The Grizzlies played a stretch of games without rookie point guard Ja Morant who returned the other night to help lead Memphis to back-to-back wins against Golden State and Phoenix. Memphis is also one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA at 103.6 possessions per game, so they’ll gladly play at the Bucks tempo. The Grizzlies are 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.115 points per possession and only the Wizards allow more points at home than them (110.8PPG). The total on this game is barely higher than league average (221.6) with a pair of teams that like to play fast. We gladly bet OVER in this one. |
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12-10-19 | Knicks +9 v. Blazers | Top | 87-115 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here. |
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12-04-19 | Pacers v. Thunder +1 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits. |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets. |
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11-25-19 | Thunder -6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points. |
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11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points. |
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11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors -3 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight. |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points! |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks. The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +3 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz. |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win. |
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10-26-19 | Pacers -5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points. |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run. |
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10-23-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points! |